Please note that this Conference Call is being recorded. I now hand the Conference Call over to Mr. Subir Sen, Head of Investor Relations at Hindalco. Thank you, and over to you.
Thank you, and a very good afternoon or morning, everyone. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, I welcome you all to the earnings call for the Q1 of financial year 2025. In this call, we will refer to the Q1 financial year 2025 investor presentation available on our company's website. Some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the safe harbor language on slide number 2 of the said presentation. In this presentation, we have covered the key highlights of our consolidated performance for the Q1 of the financial year 2025 versus the corresponding period of the previous year. A segment-wise comparative financial analysis of Novelis, Indian Aluminium, and Copper business is also provided. The corresponding segment information for prior periods is also restated accordingly for a comparative analysis.
Today, we have on this call from Hindalco's management, Mr. Satish Pai, Managing Director, and Mr. Praveen Maheshwari, Chief Financial Officer. From Novelis' management, we have Mr. Steve Fisher, President and CEO, and Mr. Dev Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer. Following this presentation, this forum will be open for question and answers. Post this call, an audio replay of this Conference Call will also be available on our company's website. Now, let me turn this call to Mr. Pai to take you through the company's performance in quarter one.
Thank you, Subir. Thank you for joining the Hindalco's earnings call today. Let me start with our achievements, progress, and some key highlights across the metrics of ESG for this quarter versus the prior period on slides 4 to 8 of this presentation. In the Q1 financial year 2025, 97% of the total waste generated were recycled and reused. We achieved recycling of 138% of bauxite residue, excluding Utkal, 106% of ash in this period. We are steady fast in our efforts to reach net water positivity of 2050. Till date, we have initiated various projects, including desalination and other water recycling projects, to minimize our freshwater consumption and maximize water reuse. Specifically, in our copper business, we have seen remarkable progress.
The Dahej desalination project, coupled with our tertiary water recycling units, have enabled a significant reduction in freshwater consumption. We have successfully reduced freshwater usage from 19.5 million cubic meters per ton of metal in the Q1 of FY 2024 to just 8.1 million cubic meters per ton, a notable achievement in our sustainability journey. This year, we have recycled and reused 4.6 million cubic meters of water, wastewater, accounting for 24% of the total water consumed in our Indian operations. I am also pleased to announce that Muri has become the first plant of Hindalco to which received the prestigious CII GreenCo Water Neutrality Certificate in this quarter. Furthermore, 15 out of our 19 plants now operate with zero liquid discharge, a critical component of our water sustainability strategy.
We are on track to commission the Kuppam ZLD project by Q3 of this financial year, further enhancing our efforts to minimize our environmental impact. In biodiversity, we have launched a pilot project at our Renukut plant aimed at removing invasive species and reintroducing native plants. These invasive species are being sent to the paper mills for pulp production as a part of our commitment towards circular economy. As part of our ESG disclosure, we are set to publish our Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, TNFD report, by the end of the quarter. In terms of our progress on renewables, we have commissioned 117 megawatts of solar and wind till date. Further 16 megawatts of solar projects are under execution and expected to be completed by quarter two, and another 9 megawatts by quarter four of this financial year.
Our 100 megawatts hybrid power project is on course and expected to be commissioned by H1 calendar year 2025. Our aluminium-specific greenhouse gas emission was recorded at 19.41 tons of CO2 per ton of aluminium in this quarter, flattish compared to the same period last year. On safety, our LTIFR in India was at, recorded at 0.4 in the Q1 of the financial year 2025, which was a bit higher compared to quarter one of last year. We continue to focus on reduction of LTIFR by continuously upgrading our safety enhancement and monitoring systems. We are sad that there was one fatality of a contract workman that was recorded at our Indian operations this quarter. Let me now give you a glimpse of our quarterly consolidated performance this quarter versus the same quarter of last year on slide 10.
This quarter's performance on a consolidated basis was driven by normalized demand for beverage can packaging sheet at Novelis, better cost control in the Aluminum India business, backed by a continuous record performance by the Copper business. Our consolidated business segment EBITDA was up 42% year-on-year at INR 8,578 crores, whereas our overall reported EBITDA was up 31% year-on-year at INR 7,992 crores. The consolidated net profit after tax was up 25% on a year-on-year basis at INR 3,074 crores. At the Hindalco India business level, excluding Novelis, our overall reported EBITDA was up 55% year-on-year at INR 3,840 crores.
The net profit after tax was up 102% on a year-on-year basis at INR 1,957 crore. Our Indian aluminum business is currently hedged at around 22% commodity at a price of $2,550 per ton for the financial year 2025, and around 15% of the commodity at a zero collar, with a bottom of 2,258 and a ceiling of 2,539 per ton. 11% of the currency is hedged at 88.43 per dollar. On the balance sheet, our consolidated net debt stands at INR 35,530 crore.
In the India operations, we have net cash of INR 1,770 crores, while the Novelis net debt stands at INR 38,226 crores at the end of June 2024. Hindalco, at the consolidated level, maintains a strong balance sheet, with net debt to EBITDA well below 2x at 1.24 at the end of June 2024, which is lower than the corresponding period of last year. All our strategic CapEx in India is matched with the cash flow generation in the business and are in line with our capital allocation policy. Coming to our business-wide performance this quarter, Novelis shipments were at 951 KT versus 879 KT in the prior period, up 8% year-on-year, due to normalized demand for the beverage packaging sheet.
Novelis delivered a quarterly EBITDA of $500 million, up 19% year-on-year, driven by higher shipments and favorable product pricing. The result in the EBITDA per ton stood at 525 versus 479 in the previous quarter, up 10% year-on-year. All our expansion projects, including the Bay Minette project in Novelis, are on track, with the new 240 KT automotive recycling and casting center at Guthrie began commissioning this quarter. However, an unprecedented weather event in Novelis Europe at the end of June caused significant flooding at its Sierre, Switzerland plant. Fortunately, all of our employees were safely evacuated, though production has been halted since June 30. We currently estimate the plant to be back up and running at the end of the Q2.
On Hindalco, India's upstream aluminum performance this quarter, shipments were down 4% year-on-year, and revenues were up 10% year-on-year. EBITDA was up 81% year-on-year at INR 3,493 crore, primarily supported by lower input costs and favorable macros. The resultant EBITDA per ton stood at 1,273, higher by 84% year-on-year. EBITDA margins were also higher at 40% this quarter and continued to be the best in the global industry. This quarter, the Indian downstream aluminum quarterly shipments were up 18% year-on-year at 96 KT in this quarter on account of market recovery. EBITDA was down 19% year-on-year at INR 110 crore this quarter, versus INR 135 crore in the prior period.
The resulting EBITDA per ton was at $138 per ton, lower by 32% year-on-year this quarter, impacted by unfavorable product mix and lower realization. Our copper business continues, continued to deliver its best ever performance this quarter as well. The overall metal shipments were at 109 KT, up 1% year-on-year, of which CCR volumes were at 100 KT, up 2% year-on-year. The quarterly copper EBITDA was at an all-time high of INR 805 crore, up 52% year-on-year, on account of higher shipments, better realization, and robust operations. Now, let me give you a glimpse of the current broader economic environment from slide 12 and 13. Global economic growth remains resilient despite some moderation in pace.
IMF projects the GDP growth to remain steady in 2024 at 3.2%, compared to 3.3% in 2023, on moderating inflation, accommodative financial condition, and rising global trade. Growth in advanced economies is projected at 1.7% in 2024, in line with 2023, and growth in the emerging market economies is projected at 4.3% in 2024, moderating slightly from 4.4% in 2023. While growth in the U.S. appears to be moderating from 2023 levels, growth in the Euro area appears to have bottomed out and is expected to accelerate going forward. Despite moderating activity in China, emerging Asia continues to remain the main engine of global growth, accounting for almost half of the global growth in 2024.
IMF projects global headline inflation to moderate from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024. Disruptions to disinflation, past fiscal challenges, rising geopolitical tension, and climate change remain key risks to economic growth. On the domestic front, economic activity continues to be resilient. Going forward, the RBI projects GDP growth to remain at a robust 7.2% in FY 2025. High capacity utilization, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, sustained manufacturing and service activity, and the government's continued thrust on infrastructure spending suggest a positive outlook.... Union Budget focused on fiscal prudence, job creation, and CapEx will also continue to support this economic momentum. However, risks to outlooks arise from geopolitical tension, fluctuations in international commodity prices, and geoeconomic fragmentation.
RBI projects inflation to decline to 4.5% in FY 2025 from 5.4% in FY 2024. However, volatility in food prices and crude oil prices present downside risks to the disinflation process. Headline inflation has moderated from its peak, though not uniformly. The RBI thus remains cautious and is committed to maintaining the 4% inflation target. Moving on to the aluminum industry outlook on slides 14 and 15. In Q2 calendar year 2024, Chinese production remained steady at 10.6 million tons, while consumption rose to 11.3 million tons, resulting in a deficit of 0.7 million tons. This 3% growth in consumption was led by increase in solar installation, and EV production, and electrical grid investments.
Coming to the rest of the world, Q2 calendar year production was at 7.3 million tons, and consumption at 6.9, resulting in a surplus of 0.4 million tons. In Q2 calendar year 2024, consumption declined by 1% due to ongoing softness in Europe, Middle East, and Japan, offset by strong growth in India and a moderate recovery in North America. Therefore, the overall global production was at 17.9 million tons, and consumption was at 18.2 million tons, resulting in a deficit of 0.3 million tons in Q2 FY 2024. In Q1 FY 2024, domestic demand for aluminum reached 1,319 KT, marking a robust 15% year-on-year growth.
This strong performance was primarily driven by increase in demand in the electrical segment, particularly in cables and conductors, as well as rising demand of aluminum in the solar sector. There was a significant rise in the domestic demand from the packaging industry, industrial machinery, and consumer durables segments. However, the automotive sector saw slightly muted demand, primarily due to softness in passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles. The global aluminum FRP demand, excluding China, is expected to grow by 4% in calendar year 2024, with demand recovery across all major segments of beverage packaging, automotive, specialty, and aerospace between CAGRs of 4%-7% over the next three to four years. Near-term demand in our latest end market, beverage packaging, remains quite positive, particularly in North America, and is improving in South America and Europe as well.
Global automotive demand remains broadly stable, even amidst some ongoing macro challenges. Demand for premium aerospace, aerospace plate and sheet remains solid over the long term, reflecting strength from the growing OEM build grades, supported by multi-year backlog for aircraft deliveries. The Indian FRP demand in financial year 25 is expected to grow by around 78% on a year-on-year basis versus a flattish growth in financial year FY 2024. This increase is led by strong demand from packaging, automotive, and building and construction segments. Turning to the copper industry on slides 17 and 18. In Q2 CY 2024, Chinese production remained flat year-on-year at 2.8 million tons, whereas consumption declined by almost 3% year-on-year at 3.8 million tons, resulting in a deficit of 0.1 million tons.
In the rest of the world, production increased by 6% year-on-year at 3.6 million tons, whereas consumption was flattish year-on-year at 2.8 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 0.8 million tons in Q2 calendar year 2024. Therefore, the overall global production of copper increased by 3% year-on-year at 6.4 million tons, while consumption declined by 1% year-on-year at 6.6 million tons, resulting in a deficit of about 0.2 million tons in Q2 calendar year 2024. On the domestic side, in Q1 financial year 2025, market demand increased by approximately 4% year-on-year at 201 KT versus 194 KT in Q1 financial year 2024. Domestic producer shares increased to 73% in Q1 FY 2025 versus 71 in the same period of last year. In Q1 FY 2025, the availability of concentrates remains constrained.
On the demand side, numerous smelters are either advancing or prolonging maintenance shutdowns and reducing utilization rates to reduce demand of copper concentrate. Looking ahead, the spot TC/RCs are suspected to stay low due to the ongoing limited supply of copper concentrate. Details of the operational and financial performance in each of our business segments this quarter, compared to the corresponding period of last year, as well as previous quarters, are covered in further slides and are annexed here to this presentation.
Now, let me conclude today's presentation through some key takeaways and our way forward. We continue to scale up the aluminum downstream operations with our Silvassa extrusion plant ramping up successfully and our Aditya FRP expansion project remaining on track, with a target commissioning in FY 2026. These expansions will take our downstream capacity to 600 KT, reinforcing our commitment towards growth and margin expansion.
Our financial health remains robust, providing a solid foundation to support our organic growth. Our strong balance sheet is a key enabler as we continue to invest in our organic strategic growth initiatives. Our major capital formation phase in downstream business is nearing completion, and from here on, we will focus on growth opportunities in the upstream business in both aluminum and copper. Sustainability remains at the core. I'm happy to say that we have now achieved 57% of our 300 MW target in renewables by 2026. Our current renewable energy capacity has reached 173 MW. We are on track to commission an additional 100 MW hybrid project, including storage, by the first half of calendar year 2025.
The key focus for us is completion of Novelis Bay Minette project, which remains on schedule and is expected to be completed in the second half of calendar year 2026. This project will be a significant driver for our future growth and innovation. In June, we began commissioning the highly advanced automotive recycling center in North America, that will increase our ability to utilize more pre- and post-consumer automotive scrap. In July, we announced a UBC recycling expansion at our Latchford, U.K., recycling center. Both of these investments shall help to increase recycled content of our products while reducing carbon emissions. We continue making steady progress across a number of strategic capital investments that will strengthen our business for the future. With that, I'd like to thank you for your attention and open the forum up for any questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We'll take the first question from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you, sir, for the opportunity. My first question is on the cost side. Can you guide as to what is our expectation on movement of various cost items for the aluminum business over the next quarter?
So, on a consumption basis, our cost for Q1 compared to Q4 was down by 2%. And, largely, that's because coal costs came down, but so did some of the carbon costs. I think that in Q2 versus Q1, it'll be flattish to 1% up, because normally, during monsoons, the spot auction prices of coal tend to go up, and caustic prices have also gone up a little bit. So Q2 to Q1, I think will be flat to 1%, but Q1 to Q4, we were down by 2%.
Okay, got it. So what would be our mix of e-auction and linkage, and is there any further juice left in terms of cost reduction from coal as our linkage increases and e-auction reduces?
So look, I don't think that in the near term. We are about 48% linkage, about 49%-50% e-auction, and I don't think that that mix is going to change so much in the coming year. I think what is going to make a difference is when our own Chakla mine starts, because that's the, that's the time when we will get some fixation on our coal costs on a steady basis going forward.
Understood. Understood. So my second question is with respect to your upstream projects in the aluminum division. I think last year we had put it under future opportunities, but now, given the balance sheet has become net, net, net cash, if, if you could just elaborate on which are the projects which we could take, and what sort of CapEx on an annual basis we are looking at for FY 25, I think it's well guided, but FY 26, 27.
Yeah, I think that, you know, that's why I put in my prepared remarks the downstream CapEx both with Silvassa and the FRP to finish. Now, we will be looking at the alumina expansion in Odisha. We will be looking at a copper smelter. I'm giving it in the sort of terms of priority. And then we are looking at a 180-pot smelter expansion in Aditya, with the renewable hybrid starting there in January. So these are the three large upstream projects that are on our radar screen now. And each one of them is about an INR 8,000 crore project.
Okay. Okay. So is it happening one after the other whenever we take it up, or given our balance sheet strength, we can simultaneously work on these?
No, I think that we have... look, all of these require ECs, public clearance, statutory clearances, so it's not just the availability of the cash. There is a practicality of execution as well. So the alumina refinery is the first off the block. The second probably will be the copper smelter, because there's a real shortage of copper in the country. And in January, we will get the pumped hydro project starting in Aditya. So we will get clarity on the green power as well. So we are doing the engineering work in the background for the 180 pot expansion.
Okay. And so if you start from FY 2026, generally, it's going to be 2-3 years of construction time before commissioning?
Yes. Yes.
Understood. Okay. Thank you so much, sir, and all the best.
Thank you, Sumangal.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, everyone, and thanks for the opportunity. Congratulations for a good performance. I have a couple of questions. The first one is on copper. Now, if I look at the copper EBITDA trajectory evolution, I mean, we were used to seeing EBITDA at INR 400 crore roughly a few quarters back, went to INR 500 crore, INR 600 crore, finally, INR 805 crore. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that TCRC margins could be under pressure because of constraints in concentrate availability. So, first of all, what prompted this, you know, poor performance? And what should be the sustainable EBITDA number that, you know, we should see going ahead?
Yeah. I think on the copper, what is important to note is that we are now selling a lot more copper rod. We are importing copper cathodes besides our own cathodes. So if you look at our total sales in the copper for this year, we'll be selling more than 515 KT, whereas our production of cathodes is about 380-400. So because the copper demand in the country is so high, and we have the copper rod capacity to make more rod, so we are taking full advantage of our capacity and selling more copper rod to the market at very good realization. So that is one important part from a market point of view.
And that increasing means that from that INR 400 levels, we are quite clear now that the baseline for copper is going to be at the INR 600 crore level. The INR 800, there is also some amount of derivative accounting, numbers in there, which could probably, you know, change in the coming quarters. So I think that what you should be modeling going forward is more like the INR 600. Copper has got quite a lot of derivative. We do offset, hedging, so there will be some noise when the LME is fluctuating so much.
Okay. Sir, is it possible to quantify the gain from hedging in copper division in this quarter?
I don't know if I would call it just a gain, because it can go both plus and minus. That's why I think that, you know, rather than give you these numbers quarter to quarter, I would rather say that, you know, you should model around INR 600 crore.
Okay, understood. The second question is downstream aluminium. So EBITDA per ton has declined significantly if I look at, compared to last quarter or even last year. While you have mentioned that, you know, there has been little bit of challenge on certain sectors, if you could highlight which sector was it, and, and, the outlook going ahead for this particular division?
Yeah. So it was not any particular sector. What happened is the product mix. So we had to fulfill some orders of products that were at a lower conversion premium. Normally, we would have done it through outsourced vendors, but this time we had to do it with our plant. So that's why the EBITDA per ton for those products went down. So the outlook for Q2 is extremely strong, so we have already seen July. So you will see the EBITDA per ton bouncing back in quarter two.
Okay, sir. That's very helpful. Thank you, and all the best.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Indrajeet Agarwal from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. Couple of questions. First, continuing on Amit's question on downstream-
Yeah.
Once we have commissioned everything and we are at about the 600 KT downstream, what could be the steady state profitability that can, we can look at, just on downstream, eliminating the metal price lag?
So once we are fully commissioned, the FRP at Silvassa is fully ramped up, so 600 KT into $200 per ton is roughly the number you should work.
Sure. Thank you. And, in, bauxite, any clarity on availability as we head on to the next leg of alumina expansion? So is it likely from OMC, and what is the kind of contracts? Have you entered into those contracts already?
Yeah. You remember we had signed an MOU with OMC, so we are currently working on finalizing the bauxite contract from Kodingamali. And just to be clear, with that contract signed, then only we'll break ground for the refinery, not before.
On an industry level, if you look at one of your competitors, the largest alumina producer in India, is also expanding alumina capacity without captive bauxite. Do you think at some stage we would, as a country, need to import more bauxite or run at lower utilization the alumina facilities?
I, you know, honestly, I cannot, you know, comment for others, but I could just say that there is sufficient bauxite in India.
Sure. Lastly, any update on commissioning of coal blocks, Chakla, Meenakshi?
So we are working through it, and let's be fair to say that the going is quite difficult. I mean, we are trying to get stage one and stage two forest clearances, trying to get the CA land. We have actually just met the ministry and the minister to ask for help in expediting this process, but it is, to be frank, a quite a rather tough going to get all this stage one, stage two forest clearance. So we are working through that.
All right. Thank you, and all the best.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. A couple of questions. First, Mr. Pai, just wanted to check on the IPO. Obviously, there was a thought behind it, and it didn't go through. Just wanted to understand, I believe as we looked at the roadshow presentations, the thought was that being a market leader in all the other industries, market leaders command a significant premium. When you marketed and the response you got, was there a big disconnect between your ask, and what the market you believe was giving you? And then, unless you maybe get that ask in future, it's safe to assume that you will not go for a listing unless you have that valuation that you had in mind. That's the first question.
So I think the first thing I will say is that we, our whole target for this IPO, as we said, was to get a premium valuation for Novelis. I think that what was clear is that at that time, with those market conditions going on, we were not able to get that valuation. And hence, we pulled it back because we were not doing it for cash, we didn't need it. We wanted it to do it for the valuation. So I think that we will, at the appropriate time, reevaluate. And it's fair to say that we would only list Novelis when we get the valuation we want.
Okay. Secondly, I wanted to ask on the recent Supreme Court verdict. I mean, right now, we're waiting whether it's going to be retrospective or not. Just wanted to see, as you look at the orders in the past, is there any estimate, let's say, if it is indeed retrospective, what could be the potential liability? So that we don't see that in the annual report, just want to see any contingent liability.
No, no, there is, for us, from a retrospective basis, we have, negligible liability. I think that for us, we will only be concerned on an ongoing basis. Jharkhand has already announced some, so I'm quite sure other states will do. So I think that it's only on an ongoing basis where we, our rate of taxes will go up. But from a retrospective basis, we are not, there's not no impact for us.
There's no, no demand for the bauxite, the Baphlimali mine or something, any, no demand basically in the past coming from that mine?
No.
Okay.
No.
Just one quick clarification question. It seems there is delay on the RE RTC, maybe it's the Greenko's Pinnapuram project, there have been delays. So based on the discussions, it seems they've given you a revised timeline of January. Is that fair? And I would believe after you test it out, maybe a few months of testing, after that, you would announce the next leg of expansion for Spectrum?
Yeah, I think that, January, they will start to provide the solar and the wind, and the pumped hydro will come in in a couple of months. So yeah, I mean, for us, we will see how that whole balancing works. As I mentioned in the earlier remark, we are already working in parallel for the engineering studies and the different clearances we will need. So yes, after we are sort of more or less clear about how the power will work, we'll announce the semester.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. So a couple of questions. First, sir, what is our total bauxite requirement at this point in time, and how are we sourcing it from?
Total bauxite. See, for us, we are long in alumina by nearly 800,000 tons, largely because of Utkal. And, the way our bauxite is sourced is we get 10%-12% of the bauxite from Jharkhand and all the rest from Odisha. Odisha meaning Baphlimali, because that's the biggest mine. So that's how we are... Now, when we announce the Aditya Alumina, we have to sign the, contract with OMC for bauxite supply for that refinery. We have signed an MOU, and we'll convert it to a, a firm contract.
Sir, can you provide some color on OMC bauxite offtake? Because, I understand there are peers also who are actually vying for this particular incremental supplies from OMC. So how well are we placed over here? The other question was, I do understand we have won two mines. Both are composite leases, pretty large in size, 600 hectares each. At what stage these mines are, and how it will help on the sufficiency part?
You're talking the latter part of your question is the coal mine, right?
No, sir, the bauxite mines. I did ask this question, I think, on the last or last to last call. I double-checked my data points. The two mines are in Chhattisgarh. One is Jamtupani, and the other is-
... Samri.
Okay, now.
We got two more mines in Samri. So those, we are still doing the sort of evaluation work. But the Samri and all goes to Renukut. So, you know, unless we do an expansion there, we took those mines more for the longevity of the bauxite supply to Renukut, not for any immediate demand. And for the OMC, you know, whether others are there, OMC is a Odisha Mining Corporation. They have, I guess, many mines that they can access. So they have signed an MOU for us, which is the basis of our refinery project there. So we would just like to, you know, conclude our contract. I could not really comment on what others are going to get from OMC.
Right. But sir, do we have any assured offtake quantum over here, that we have comfort and we can progress on?
We signed an MOU for a fixed, because we wanted to put a 1-million-ton alumina refinery, so we need to get 3 million tons of bauxite. So we signed an MOU for that, and then the second part is that we would go to 2 million tons of alumina to become 6 million tons, then OMC and us have to sign a binding supply agreement. Otherwise, we will not break ground.
Understood.
Yeah.
That's useful. And, so just another question, just taking a leaf out of Satya's question. You indicated that you'll start with solar and wind in January, and post that, it will be pumped hydro. What are the specific variables that we are looking at over here before we kickstart on the smelter part of the equation?
See, really, the smelter requires 24/7 steady power. And what we are trying to get a handle on is that during a 24-hour period, you will have various power sources that need to be optimized to make that power to the smelter steady. Because solar will be for X number of hours very high, then wind will be there, then pumped hydro, and the delta will have to be backed up by thermal, which is our own captive. So we just want to run our existing smelter for a couple of months with this variability to see how we manage it all.
Sir, my question was basically, from a rupees per kilowatt hour standpoint or from a profitability standpoint, are there any specific variables that we have in mind that we'll keep an eye on?
No, no, the cost, don't worry. The cost is, we have already modeled it. It will be very much competitive with the existing cost. This experiment or whatever is not because of the cost. It's how to manage different sources of power to optimize it to get a steady power for the smelter. The cost is competitive.
Yeah, that's useful. Thank you so much, sir. Thank you. All the very best.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, would like to remind participants to press star and one to ask a question. Next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. In terms of the aluminum cost metrics, in our guidance, you mentioned that on the coal side, more, more or less, it's likely to be stable. I just wanted to understand on the carbon side, is there any juice left where we can see further reductions, or those costs have also stabilized?
It's difficult to say, because the carbon price a little bit depends on what's happening with the oil prices, which are also a little bit subdued right now. So you could see a little bit lower carbon prices as well, because it's a little bit tied to oil.
Right. And second part was also about the Silvassa extrusion plant, where we have said that we have ramped up it successfully. So, has it already reached utilization, 100% utilization that we are targeting, or this will gradually ramp up now the sale volume?
No, it will gradually ramp up. So actually, we are now running at about 35%-40% capacity. By the end of the year, the Q4 run rate will reach its capacity, which is 3,000 tons a month. We'll. This quarter will be running at about 1,500 tons a month then. Because it, you know, it does for B&C as well as auto, so there is a little bit of a qualifying process for the auto side.
Understood. And the last question was about the INR 8,000 crore CapEx that we have guided for the upstream projects. Is it possible to split them across the three projects as well?
No, no, I said each project is INR 8,000 crore. The copper smelter, the aluminium one at Aditya, and the refineries are all in that range, plus, minus little bit.
Understood.
Yeah.
Thank you.
All right. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Parthiv Jhonsa from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for the opportunity. Sir, I have a couple of questions. The first question is pertaining to the coal, the coal blocks, which we have got right now. So, what is our current coal requirement and, about the Chakla block, once it's operational, can you quantify what kind of a cost saving are we expecting from that, one particular mine?
I can't quantify the cost saving, but we consume 16 million tons of coal a year. Chakla gives 5.
All right. Also, just another... Just adding to that question. Sir, our current, you know, linkages have actually dropped down, say, from almost 55-60-odd% couple of quarters back to it's now about 48%. It has remained around same level over last 1 or 2 quarters. Do you feel that this would reverse once, or even before Chakla comes on stream, or it is still a couple of quarters down the line, where our linkages actually increase back to that original level?
So look, the reason why we are careful is a linkage is a long-term commitment. So it's a question of the price of the linkage. So we would not want to lock in a long-term linkage where the price has gone up. So that is why this percentage sometimes goes down. So suppose linkages come up and we get it at a cost that's attractive, then we will take more linkage. Otherwise, you know, generally, our feeling is that the coal market is well supplied, and as more and more commercial mines come up, I think that their pricing should not go up. So we don't want to lock in linkages at a higher price.
Okay. And so my second question is pertaining to the current, you know, prices in spot, you know, that copper and aluminum both have come off from their recent highs. How do you perceive over next quarter or maybe two quarters, you know, how are, how do you perceive the price, you know, panning out to be? Are you expecting the prices to remain at the same level, or what is your take on it, sir?
Very difficult, because, see, I, I think the pricing of commodities is not being driven by supply, demand, or, inventory. It's being driven a lot by, macroeconomics and geopolitical events. So, you know, the Q1 LME price of, aluminum was $2,500 on an average. Currently, it's running at $2,300, and what happened? Chinese GDP came lower than expected. U.S. jobless reports came in bad, so there is worry. So these type of things, are having an impact on the commodity prices. So, it's very difficult to predict, but the only thing you can say is that it will remain volatile.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Tarang from Old Bridge. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Am I audible?
Yeah, you are audible.
Okay, three questions. One, on the downstream business, sir, you spoke about, you know, reaching $200 on a per ton basis. Do you believe at some point of time, the profitability in the downstream business could come closer to the profitability that you see in your Novelis business? Not talking from a year or two, three, four-year time horizon, but from a longer-term horizon, because the investment in these businesses is quite heavy. So wanted to get your perspective on that.
Yeah, it depends on the product mix. You see, Novelis is in can, auto, aerospace, specialties, and Novelis' key thing is it uses a good mix of scrap. I think that, in India, we are also going to increase the amount of scrap we use, and we are with Aditya, FRP and all, trying to go up the chain towards higher value products. So difficult to say when we will get there, but you should, as we go up the value chain and the mix of scrap keeps going up, the EBITDA per ton should go up.
Okay. Second question, on the copper smelter and aluminum 180 pots, the capacity in research would be 500 KT for the smelter and about 180 KT for the aluminum smelter, correct?
No, I think on the copper, we are looking more like 280-300 KT, and the aluminum 180 is 180. Depending on the amperage, it can go up to 200 KT as well.
Okay. And the last question: Sir, at some point of time, you all had announced, you know, about investing heavily for materials with wagon for the railway program. And second was around the copper recycling. So any update on that, copper and battery material recycling?
Yeah, the copper recycling project, the public hearing was concluded successfully two weeks ago. So we are now expecting to break ground by October for the copper recycling project. So 50 KT of copper recycling, it's in the Dahej area, very close to our existing smelter. So all the technology selection orders have been placed. So the project execution, breaking ground will start now, post-monsoons, probably around October. And, sorry, and which other project you were asking about?
There was a commitment with respect to, you know, producing specific materials for the railways, right?
Yes, yes, the railway wagon. So, you know, unfortunately, the aluminum train project from the central government, the contracts to Alstom or Hitachi have not been given out yet. So that project has not moved. But, you know, on the commercial vehicles, the EV, for passenger cars, that part has gone much faster than we expected. So we are now more focused on the commercial vehicles and EVs than on the railway.
Got it. Okay, thank you.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Indrajeet Agarwal from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Sir, hi, thanks for the opportunity again. Couple of questions. First, on the upstream expansion. I am referring to the 2023 Investor Day deck. There, our alumina expansion was pegged at close to $590 million, and aluminum expansion, 180 KT, was $760 million. So both these are now closer to $1 billion each. So what has changed? So I understand aluminum capacity remains same. So alumina, are we planning for a larger capacity?
... So, to be very, very honest, I said it's roughly around INR 8,000 crore per project, but very specifically, when we actually cost the project, take into account current prices, then I will come back with the exact numbers. So don't catch me on that point right now.
No, sure, sure.
Yeah.
On copper, it's a new project, right? It was not a part of the future growth opportunities that we highlighted.
No, we—I think we had it that we are thinking, maybe, I don't know, but copper smelter is a new project, yes.
Yeah. Okay, and lastly on alumina, given that we are already 800 KT long, and even on aluminum expansion, we will need probably 360 KT more. So ultimately, we will be close to 2.5 million tons long alumina. Where do you see the global deficit over there? So what is the dynamic that you see evolving in alumina globally, and do you think, I mean, of course, we are at the lowest quartile, lowest decile cost curve, but would that still be a profitable project for us, ROCE accredited?
Yeah, I think that, you know, the Utkal expansion probably has been the most profitable and ROCE attractive project we have done in the last couple of years. And the reason why is that the Middle East is very short of alumina. So, people are ready to sign long-term offtake agreements with us, whether it's EGA, Sohar, Alba, all of them. So, I think we have, you know, 1 million, 1.5 million tons of alumina. We should be very... I have absolutely no worry that we can sell those on long-term contracts.
Sure. That is all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Somaiah V from Avendus Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity, sir. I have a few questions. So, on the downstream front, post reaching the 600 KT, so what would be—I mean, anything else in the pipeline for the next one or two years in terms of downstream expansion?
No, there'll be much smaller, what I would call additional machining, maybe coating, these types. No, there won't be any very large projects because we'll be in a consolidate and harvest mode on downstream.
Got it, sir. And also, this alumina project, what are the timelines or milestones that you're looking at? So, when will you be able to get this to you?
Sorry, Mr. Somaiah, can you use your handset mode, please? Your voice is not very clear.
Yeah, sure. My question was on alumina. Just want to understand the timeline, when do we expect full production, on this?
So look, we need to sign the contract that we are expecting to sign in the coming months, then we'll break ground. We have done a lot of the parallel work already, so it'll probably be another 24-26 months from that point.
Got it. Now, also on the copper smelter, so, when will we be taking a final decision, or it's like we have already taken the decision, and when will the work start on this? Just want to understand when this can come potentially online.
So again, I think that, you know, wait for a couple of more months. We're still doing some evaluation on the technology, et cetera, and then we'll announce it. But any of these projects takes a minimum of 36 months to get off the ground.
Okay, sir. Also, in terms of CapEx, how would we be approaching this? Because as you said, each of this is around INR 8,000 crore, and also in Novelis side, we are expanding. So, from India standpoint, we want to keep, within cash flows, what we spend in a year, and then only, you know, asking more from a, you know, debt angle. So how do we approach these projects? We'll be taking them up one by one, or is there a case that the copper expansion as well as the, aluminum side, simultaneously they can happen?
So again, I keep repeating that the plan to do any projects simultaneously or not is not just a financial decision. I think that it's very clear that execution risk is probably the one that I worry about the most. Getting clearances and all that is incredibly time-consuming. So whether we like it or not, I think these projects, I don't think will happen simultaneously. I just don't think so. And even if we have the money to do it, I don't think they can just happen simultaneously. So I don't think we should worry about our balance sheet being stressed. I think we are generating good cash. We have INR 10,000 crore-INR 11,000 crore in treasury. We can easily afford INR 7,000 crore-INR 8,000 crore of CapEx, so I don't think we'll stretch the balance sheet at all in India.
Got it, sir. And also, if you can just help us out with the CapEx numbers for this year and next year, and also on the Novelis side and India side, if you can just break it, that should be it.
So for the India side, this year, we'll be at 5,500-6,000. Next year, we'll give you the numbers probably in Q4 of this coming year. And maybe, Dev, you can give the Novelis CapEx numbers for this year.
Yes, indeed. For this year, we are guiding it's in the range of $1.8 billion-$2.1 billion. Right now, as we see it, we will be at the bottom end of this range, so closer to the $1.8 billion number. So that's what you can take.
And also, more of a bookkeeping question, this quarter in terms of debt movement, so if you can just help us with how much of CapEx was spent, and was there any working capital impact that led to increase in debt?
... No, so it was largely working capital. The LME, both copper and aluminum was high. Also in Q4, typically, we see that the working capital is low, so Q1 actually sees a coming back of working capital. In addition, we had smelters shut down, planned this quarter in copper. So our working capital was at a low rate. Yes, we had some working capital requirement this quarter, and therefore slight increase in debt was there, but that's not a sign of worry.
Understood, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Pratik Singh from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. So, couple of macro questions here. The first one is lastly on the cost curve, given where alumina is right now and aluminum prices have come up quite a bit, in that sense, what percentage of smelters right now globally would be above breakeven? Would it be like, seventy-five percent or even lower than that? So any sense on that?
I, I think that it's difficult to say. I've not seen the latest CRU curves. So if you are at a $2,200 LME price, and you are buying alumina at $435, I would assume that many of the smelters would not be profitable. So it really depend on whether you are integrated in alumina or not like us. If you are buying alumina at $440 and you are at $2,200 LME, you will be quite stretched, I can tell you.
Understood, sir. And, I mean, obviously, alumina has come down quite a bit now, but did you hear anything about global smelter restarts, specifically in Europe, when aluminum was quite high? Or do you think that they are, even they are going slow on this restarting more capacity?
There is not even rumors of anything restarting in Europe, I can tell you.
Right. Understood. And the second bit is on China. So given that China is already running at, in terms of production, very close to their threshold of 45 million tons a year, do you think there is a risk there, that the Chinese government may loosen this threshold? Or like steel, they'll continue to kind of maintain this and, they continue to focus on lower pollution and hence continue to maintain this threshold. Any risk you feel there?
I mean, from everything that we have heard so far, they have no intention of lifting that cap. Because they don't want, a little bit like Hindalco, not all the companies, they don't want to expand coal-based smelting anything new. And then if you go for greener energy, they have seen that in places like Yunnan or Guizhou, every three, four months of the year, the water gets low, they have to turn the power off in the smelter. So I think there's, you know, I don't see immediately the Chinese government lifting that cap. Everything that we heard, they're going to stick to it.
Thank you. And the last one is a bookkeeping question. While I understand that we are long alumina, 200 KT a quarter, would we be able to quantify alumina external sales in this quarter?
Yeah, it was 162 KT in Q1, and the plan for Q2 is 190-200.
This does not include the special alumina which we have in Belagavi?
Oh, no, not... No, no. This is just the metal grade alumina.
Understood, sir. Thanks. Thanks for answering my questions, and all the best.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks, sir. So just one question on the copper smelter. So, just to understand supply chain, so where will we, we'll be sourcing the copper concentrate for that, given the backdrop that copper concentrate shortage is there? And, the finished product from that, where we, we will be routing it to our, wire rods?
Yeah, I mean, the, what is driving our thinking on the copper smelter is that the copper demand in the country is going up very strongly. It is very clear to us that the smelter that is shut down is not going to restart. So I think that, we think that, to meet the demands and not allow other people to get in, we will have, as a market leader, to, put capacity in. Now, if we come up in a couple of years where we are expecting that mines that are there in the plans will also come in. So the next two years are going to be very tough on TCRC, but if you see the projections of mine openings, in three years, the TCRC again should come back to good levels. So maybe we'll time it right, by the time our new smelter comes.
Understood, sir. Thanks. That's-
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, we take that as last question for today. I would now like to hand the floor over to Mr. Pai for closing comments. Over to you.
Yeah, thank you, everyone, for participating on this call. So for us, I just wanted to reiterate that, Novelis, Hindalco, aluminium and copper was a very good performance in Q1. And, and I think the more important part is the market and the market demand for the products that we supply seem to be also in, good stead. So overall, a good quarter for us, and I thank you again for your participation. Thanks.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Hindalco Industries Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.