Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the earnings conference call of Hindalco Industries' fourth quarter results for FY 2025. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Subir Sen, Head of Investor Relations at Hindalco. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, and a very good afternoon or morning, everyone. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, I welcome you all to this earnings call for the fourth quarter of financial 2025. In this call, we'll refer to the Q4 financial year 2025 investor presentation posted on our company's website. Some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature, and it's covered by the safe harbor language on slide number two of the said presentation. In this presentation, we have covered the key highlights of our consolidated performance for the fourth quarter of financial year 2025 versus the corresponding period of the previous year. A segment-wise comparative financial analysis of Novelis and our Indian aluminum and copper businesses is also provided. The corresponding segment information for prior periods has been restated accordingly for a comparative analysis. Today, we have with us on this call from Hindalco's management, Mr.
Satish Pai, Managing Director, and Mr. Bharat Goenka, Chief Financial Officer. From Novelis's management, we have Mr. Steve Fisher, President and CEO, and Mr. Dev Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer. Following this presentation, this forum will be open for questions and answers. Post this call, an audio replay of this will also be available on the company's website. Now, let me turn this call to Mr. Pai to take you through the company's performance and key highlights of the fourth quarter fiscal 2025.
Yeah, good afternoon and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Hindalco's earnings call today. On slides four to 10 of this presentation, you can see our achievements and progress across various metrics for ESG for this year versus prior periods. Let me take you through the key highlights. Let me reiterate and start with the good news. Hindalco has been recognized as the world's most sustainable aluminum company for the fifth year in a row, achieving highest-ever ESG scores in the S&P Global CSA ranking. It is the only metal company of the four Indian companies to be placed in the top 1% of the DJSI Sustainability Yearbook 2025. Safety is a top priority at Hindalco, and I'm pleased to report that there were no fatalities this quarter across our Indian operations.
Our LTI FR in the financial year 2025 stood at 0.26, slightly higher than last year due to increased project-related activities. In the financial year 2025, 85% of the total waste generated was recycled and reused. We achieved recycling of 111% of bauxite residue, excluding Utkal, and 102% of ash this year. We are proud to share that our Belgavi and Muri plants have achieved zero waste-to-landfill certifications this quarter. Hindalco's total number of zero waste-to-landfill certified units has reached eight out of a total of 19 units. Water conservation remains our key focus. As of date, 16 of 19 Hindalco sites met zero liquid discharge standards. Our downstream facility in Chakan has successfully met the zero liquid discharge standard this quarter. We also made significant progress in water recycling, with 18.26 million cubic meters of wastewater being recycled and reused this year.
This is 25% of the 73.53 million cubic meters of total water consumed in financial year 2025. Further, we continue our journey towards water positivity with CII Triveni under NITI Aayog's water positivity framework. The certification assessment for five of our manufacturing units, Aditya, Utkal, Hirakud, Alupuram, and Belgavi, is underway. These units are being assessed under the aspiring category and have an identified potential to save 17,512 cubic meters of water. This will lead to an annual reduction of 5 million cubic meters via rainwater harvesting, process optimization, and recycling. These efforts show a strong commitment towards efficient resource management and broader responsibility towards the community at large. Our commitment towards biodiversity remains strong, restoring natural ecosystems in and around our area of operation. In this quarter, our biodiversity management plans were now implemented across 22 of our manufacturing locations, that is, 10 plants and 12 mines.
The biodiversity management plans are now being implemented additionally at seven of our plants and 11 mines. We have also initiated pilot projects focused on offsite plantation and habitat restoration, including degraded land rehabilitation. As a part of our afforestation efforts, 5.33 lakh trees were planted during financial year 2025. Our total renewable energy capacity, primarily solar and wind, stands at 189 megawatts. Recently, we commissioned 6.3 megawatts of solar capacity at Mahan. We are set to add another 9 megawatts of solar and 100 megawatts of hybrid capacity with storage in the first half of calendar year 2025. Post this, we are well aligned towards our target of reaching 300 megawatts of renewable capacity in the first half of calendar year 2025. Our aluminum-specific GHG emissions in financial year 2025 were recorded at 19.39 tons of CO2 per product producing a ton of aluminum.
This was flat compared to the last fiscal. Let me now give you a glimpse of our quarterly consolidated performance this quarter versus the same quarter of last year on slide 12. Our consolidated business segment EBITDA was up 24% year-on-year at INR 9,774 crore this quarter. The consolidated net profit after tax was up 66% on a year-on-year basis at INR 5,284 crore this quarter. At Hindalco India business level, our business segment EBITDA was up 56% year-on-year at INR 5,671 crore. The net profit after tax was up 63% on a year-on-year basis at INR 3,208 crore this quarter. In our Indian aluminum business for Q1 FY 2026, we are currently hedged at around 15% of the commodity at a price of $2,695 per ton and hedged 13% of currency at INR 86 per dollar. On the balance sheet side, our consolidated net debt stands at INR 35,332 crore.
In the Indian operations, we have a net cash of INR 7,187 crore, while Novelis' net debt stands at INR 43,485 crore at the end of March 2025. Hindalco, at the consolidated level, continues to maintain a strong balance sheet with a net debt-to-EBITDA well below 2x at 1.06x at the end of March 2025, which is much lower than last year. All our strategic CapExes in India are mapped with cash flow generation in the business and are in line with our capital allocation policy. Coming to our business-wise performance this quarter, Novelis shipments were at 957 KT versus 951 KT in the prior period, up 1% year-on-year. Novelis delivered a quarterly EBITDA of $473 million, down 8% year-on-year due to higher aluminum scrap prices and operating costs. The resultant EBITDA per ton stood at $494 per ton versus $540 per ton in the previous quarter, down 9% year-on-year.
All our expansion projects, including Novelis's Bay Minette project, are progressing well and as planned. We have also maintained the recycled content of our products at 63% in fiscal 2025. We are actively implementing initiatives and technologies to diversify our scrap input types, which we believe will help address current elevated scrap costs while continuing to deliver the high-recycled content aluminum solutions our customers prefer. On Hindalco's India upstream aluminum performance this quarter, shipments were down 2% year-on-year, and revenues were up 22% year-on-year. This quarter, we achieved a record quarterly EBITDA, which was up 79% year-on-year at INR 4,838 crore, primarily driven by lower input costs and favorable macros. The resultant record EBITDA per ton stood at INR 1,684, which was higher by 74% year-on-year. EBITDA margins were also at a record high of 47% this quarter and continue to be the best in the global industry.
This quarter, the Indian downstream aluminum business delivered a record performance. Quarterly shipments were flat year-on-year at 105 KT. Aluminum downstream delivered an all-time high quarterly EBITDA of INR 219 crore, up by 52% year-on-year this quarter versus INR 144 crore in the prior period, driven by higher realizations and favorable product mix. The resultant EBITDA per ton stood at a record $240 a ton, higher by 46% year-on-year this quarter. On Hindalco's copper business performance this quarter, our overall metal shipments were at 135 KT, flat year-on-year, of which copper rod volumes were at 109 KT, up 12% year-on-year. Our quarterly copper EBITDA stood at INR 614 crore, down 21% year-on-year on account of lower TCRC. Now, let me give you a glimpse of the current broader economic environment in slides 15 and 16.
After a resilient 2024, the global economy entered a phase of renewed uncertainty with the recently announced U.S. tariff measures. The impact is expected to be seen on other economies, particularly emerging markets, through channels such as trade, slower global growth, and deepening consumer and investor confidence. As per IMF, global GDP growth is projected to slow down from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025 amid U.S. trade policy and rising trade tensions between U.S. and China. GDP growth in both U.S. and China is expected to moderate to 1.8% and 4%, respectively, in 2025, a 1% drop from 2024 levels. However, going forward, the extent of the impact will be determined by U.S. bilateral trade negotiations with major economies. Recently, both U.S. and China agreed to cut tariffs bilaterally for a 90-day period, temporarily easing trade tensions.
Despite the headwinds, the global headline inflation is expected to ease from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, even though inflation is expected to rise in the U.S. monetary policy. Monetary policy will require a careful balance, with central banks likely to approach rate cuts cautiously to support growth without driving inflation. Amidst a challenging global environment, India's economic momentum has remained resilient. High-frequency indicators present a mixed picture. Looking ahead, RBI forecasts GDP growth to hold steady at 6.5% in FY 2026 versus FY 2025, with growth expected to moderate slightly in the second half of FY 2026. Improved demand, both rural and urban, and a resilient service sector bode well for growth outlook. While headwinds from global trade disruptions pose a downward risk to growth, the impact will depend on the extent to which U.S. tariff actions are diluted through bilateral trade negotiations.
Headline inflation is expected to ease to 4% in FY 2026, down from 4.6% in FY 2025, moving closer to the RBI's medium-term target. As per RBI, growth is still moderating and recovering, and there is a need for monetary policy to nurture domestic demand to give further impetus to growth momentum. In response to the evolving growth inflation dynamics, RBI further reduced policy rates by 25 basis points to 6% in its latest monetary policy review. Moving on to the aluminum industry outlooks on slides 17 and 18. Starting with slide 17, in China, production in Q1 calendar year 2025 reached 10.6 million tons, with consumption increasing to 10.7 million tons, resulting in a deficit of 0.1 million tons. The growth in demand was primarily driven by a 31% rise in solar installation and a 50% increase in new energy vehicle production.
However, the construction sector continued to face challenges with declining investments. Moving on to the rest of the world, production was at 7.3 million tons, while consumption was slightly lower at 7 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 0.3 million tons this quarter. While demand in Europe was weak, countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Turkey showed growth. As a result, the overall global aluminum market recorded a marginal surplus of 0.2 million tons in Q1 calendar year 2025. Turning to India on slide 18, the aluminum demand in Q4 FY 2025 is expected to reach 1.435 million tons, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth. The key demand drivers were strong growth in the electrical segment, particularly cables and conductors, along with robust demand in packaging and consumer durables. The building and construction segment demand remains stable. Global FRP demand remains resilient, with strong momentum across key end markets.
Beverage packaging continues to witness robust growth globally, supported by rising consumption and a clear shift in packaging preferences towards sustainable solutions such as aluminum. In the automotive segment, lightweighting remains a key demand driver, particularly in North America, where a favorable vehicle mix of SUVs and trucks supports higher aluminum usage. However, growth in China has moderated due to a shift in vehicle mix, while tariff uncertainties in Europe and North America are adding to near-term volatility. In the specialty segment, we are seeing a seasonal pickup in building and construction demand. The U.S. housing market remains structurally undersupplied, and potential favorable trade rulings could further benefit the domestic light-gauge market. Aerospace demand remains robust, backed by multi-year OEM order backlog and a rising focus on sustainability. However, supply chain constraints continue to limit OEM production ramp-up. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties remain key watch factors.
Overall, while certain regions face policy-related headwinds, the medium- to long-term outlook for global FRP demand across the end-use sectors remains positive, driven by strong sustainability tailwinds and secular growth drivers. The Indian FRP demand in financial year 2025 is expected to grow by around 17% on a year-on-year basis, led by strong demand from packaging and consumer durables. Turning to the copper industry on slide 2021, in Q1 calendar year 2025, Chinese production reflected a growth of around 1% year-on-year, reaching around 3 million tons, while consumption increased by around 0.5 million year-on-year to 3.5 million tons, resulting in a deficit of around 0.5 million tons. In the rest of the world, production degrew by 3% year-on-year at 3.5 million tons, while consumption increased by around 2% year-on-year to 2.9 million tons, leading to a surplus of 0.7 million tons this quarter.
As a result, the overall global production of copper degrew by around 1% on a year-on-year basis at 6.5 million tons, and consumption increased by around 4% year-on-year at 6.4 million tons, leading to a surplus of 0.1 million tons this quarter. On the domestic front, in Q4 FY 2025, market demand, including domestic supplies and scrap, increased by 1% year-on-year at 224 KT versus 222 KT in Q4 of FY 2024. Domestic producer share increased to 83% in Q4 FY 2025 versus 70% in the same period last year. The annual TCRC benchmark for 2025 settled at $0.0545 per pound, representing a 73% year-on-year decline from $0.205 per pound in 2024. Concentrate markets continue to be extremely tight, resulting in declining spot TCRC terms.
The market is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term until market rebalances through potential smelter closures or through a new mining capacity addition. Details of the operational and financial performance in each of our business segments this quarter, compared to the corresponding period of last year as well as previous quarters, are covered in further slides and annexes in this presentation. Now, let me conclude today's presentation with some key takeaways. Hindalco is future-ready, aligning to its core philosophy of engineering better futures. Our strategic focus to double down on upstream capacities in both aluminum and copper, and our target to quadruple our downstream EBITDA by FY 2030 from the base of FY 2024, remains intact. Hindalco delivered a record-breaking performance in FY 2025 across value streams, driven by strong operational resilience, cost discipline, and sustainability leadership.
Our India operations continue to show exceptional performance, achieving an all-time high EBITDA and industry-best margins in the aluminum upstream business. Our cost position is expected to strengthen further as we progress towards enhancing resource security through our captive coal and low-cost alumina. All our major expansion projects are progressing well and on schedule. The Chakla and Meenakshi coal mines' Aditya smelter expansion, along with the new Kansariguda alumina refinery, copper smelter expansion projects are advancing swiftly in line with our strategy. The proposed acquisition of the Bandha coal mine by Hindalco, subject to shareholders and other regulatory approvals, aims to meet the company's strategic objective of securing resources for its aluminum smelter. This coal mine has a life of around 45 years and is within 20 kilometers from our Mahan smelter and will help build a sustainable coal supply chain in the foreseeable future.
On the aluminum downstream front, we delivered the highest-ever profitability for the quarter and full year 2025. Our specialty alumina business delivered record shipments this year and is now scaling up its capacity to 1 million tons, supported by a differentiated high-margin product portfolio in this segment. Our state-of-the-art battery enclosure facility in Chakan has delivered 10,000 enclosures to a leading Indian automotive OEM for its eSUVs, reinforcing our strategic entry into the fast-growing EV component space. Our Aditya FRP project remains on track with target commissioning in FY 2026, taking total downstream capacity to 600 KTPA. Our copper tubes, including the inner groove tubes plant, are now ready to commission to serve India's electrification drive. Our specialty alumina precipitated hydrate value-added product project at Belgavi remains on track and is expected to commission this quarter.
Novelis achieved an all-time high beverage can shipment, though EBITDA for the year was muted due to the impacts of tighter scrap spreads. Looking ahead, we are structurally transforming our cost base to protect margins and strengthen our profitability in Novelis. Our 3x30 vision drives this commitment to increase recycle content to 75% by FY 2030, reducing carbon intensity and boosting returns through strategic investments in Bay Minette. Novelis maintained a strong 63% recycle content this year, driven by successful commissioning of two advanced recycling centers at Guthrie in the U.S. with 240 KTPA capacity and at Ulsan in Korea with 100 KTPA capacity. These assets will not only expand our scrap processing capacity but also reinforce our sustainability edge, enabling an estimated 1.5 million tons of carbon savings annually.
We also make good progress on structural cost improvements and efficiency plans by idling one of our auto finishing lines in China due to subdued regional demand and exiting two North America specialty facilities to consolidate capacity and drive higher asset utilization. Our 600 KT greenfield rolling and recycling facility at Bay Minette is progressing steadily, with over 90% of engineering now complete. Alongside our ongoing high-return debottlenecking projects, our total rolling capacity will reach 5 million tons, and our EBITDA is expected to reach $600 million. Our disciplined capital allocation, superior execution, and focus on high-value segments will help deliver sustainable growth regardless of near-term market volatility. Hindalco is not just prepared for this future but is advancing into its next phase with the scale, purpose, and confidence. Thank you very much for your attention, and we now open the forum up for questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star, then one, on the touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star, then two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good evening, everyone, and thanks for the opportunity. Congratulations for good performance. I have two questions. The first one is on downstream aluminum business. After quite a few quarters, we have seen that the EBITDA pattern has increased quite, I would say, quite heavy. I just wanted to understand, part A, the kind of product mix change that you were talking about, if you could explain it a bit. Secondly, is it the new structural EBITDA pattern that we should expect, or there could be some volatility around this?
I think that over the next few quarters, Amit, you're going to see the product mix gradually improving and stabilizing. In the short term in Q4, there was a lot of packaging, foil stock that added, and foil stock demand was very high, so the pricing was also very good. We also started to put more value-added engineered products like the battery enclosures, and you're going to see things like aluminum AC fin and on the copper side, IGT. All that is going to come out in FY 2026. We are fairly confident that in FY 2026 and going forward, the downstream EBITDA is going to steadily increase. Yes, there could be some sort of short-term depends on market conditions, but I would be very confident in saying that the downstream EBITDA and downstream product mix is going to steadily increase from this point onwards.
Also, the second point is that the 160 KTPA FRP in Lapanga is also commissioned. Silvassa Extrusion 36 KT will fully commission this year. The copper IGT plant is commissioning this quarter, and the aluminum AC fin is also commissioning this quarter. We have quite a variety of higher product mix, product both on aluminum and copper coming into the market.
Got it, sir. The second one is on a little bit intrigued by your greenhouse gas emission intensity. Now, if I look at it, despite our various endeavors putting up solar capacity progressively, it has actually remained constant year -on -year. In fact, if I compare it to FY 2023, it has gone up slightly. I just wanted to understand why is it so, and is it the peak greenhouse gas intensity that we have hit?
See, if you have got 90% coal, around that 19 is the theoretical number that you can get to. Until our 100 megawatts of around-the-clock renewables kicks in in Aditya, that is when you will start to see the first phase, and then we are going to add 200 megawatts more. As that renewable goes in, you will see the carbon intensity going down.
Okay.
Yeah, but you have to realize, let's take alumina. Belgavi, for more than half the year, was running completely on renewables. So our alumina carbon footprint has dramatically gone down. Now, if you take the Hindalco copper, we now have a hybrid power being fed in. So the carbon intensity of the copper has also significantly gone down. The real challenge for us is the aluminum smelters, and that will only go down as more round-the-clock power starts to come in renewables.
Okay. So just for the sake of clarity, this aluminum that you report, that doesn't include alumina, it's only aluminum?
It's only aluminium, yes.
Okay. Okay. Okay. Thank you so much. I have other questions that we'll get back in the queue.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Prateek Singh from Dam Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Hi, sir. Congrats on the boost of numbers. The first question is largely, if you can elaborate a bit further on the EMIL mining acquisition and also the note about getting an offer about Novelis Fairmont sale.
Let me take the first part. In our coal security, if you remember, we got Chakla, which we had planned for Renusagar. We got Meenakshi West, which was for Aditya and Hirakud smelters. The only smelter that we were still exposed to was Mahan. Mahan is in the Northern Coalfields where coal availability over the years has been going down, and Northern Coalfields' main customer is the IPPs in North India. We have been eyeing how to get that coal security. Now, as per the regulations, and as we said, we have still got some more clarifications to get from the government, but Bandha has now got its mining lease. That means FC1, FC2, EC have all been done.
Hence, as per the regulations, we can take over the subsidiary at cost, which is what we have today presented to the board, and we are progressing with, and we will take shareholder approval. Once we get Bandha, Mahan is secured because Bandha is 18.5 kilometers from Mahan. The future of Mahan, any further expansion of smelter in Mahan, we are now secure from a whole point of view. It is a fairly significant event for Hindalco.
About the Novelis Fairmont?
Yeah. Dev, Steve, do you want to take the Fairmont question?
Yeah. On Fairmont, after announcing that we were moving towards closing the facility in late March, we were first in early April and entered into a non-binding letter of intent to see if we can sell the property. That time period has come to an end, and we'll see if we can get to an agreement or not. If not, we will move forward with the closure of Fairmont over the next few months.
Understood. My second question, sir, is about slide 18. On slide 18, it kind of seems that over the last two years, while demand is up at a CAGR of 12%, imports excluding scrap have risen quite sharply. We are on 55%+ over two years, while scrap imports have largely remained flat. What kind of imports are these? I would assume these are in primary aluminum. Are these finished goods which currently Indian players are not producing or are not capable of producing? If yes, would our downstream capacity expansion help substitute these?
Very specifically, this sudden splurge was because of aluminum coming to make solar panels. There was a big demand for solar panels that were being assembled, and a lot of that aluminum came in at cheap price from China. The government has subsequently put tariffs and duties on it, and I do not think you are going to see that. This sudden splurge from about 1 million to 1.2 million, a large part of it was aluminum for solar frameworks.
Is it aluminum [audio distortion]
It won't cut because now the duties have been put in on the solar, so they have to manufacture it in India. It is not going to continue going forward.
Understood. Understood. Thank you. All the best, sir.
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. I had a couple of data questions first. What was the alumina sales volume in Q4? Also, what was the hedging gain that you booked in the quarter?
What was the what gain? Hedging gain?
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The hedges that you ran, what was gain on that, and what was the alumina sales volume?
The hedging gain was a wash. I mean, we did not gain or did not lose on the hedging side.
Yeah. Right. Yeah. Of course. Yeah. I can understand.
The alumina sales, we sold 172 KT in the last quarter, and we'll be selling about 190 KT in Q1.
Okay. So generally, to understand the alumina business a bit better, these sales that you make are all on spot basis, or there are some contracts also that go in it?
No. We have quite a lot of contracts. I think the last quarter also, I had mentioned that when spot prices spiked, we did not get the full benefit because we have long-term contracts. Some of these contracts are sort of 50% based as a percentage of LME as well as the Platts Premium, which is the index for alumina. Because we sell about 7,800 KT, we have thought it prudent to have some longer-term contracts. We are not fully on the spot.
Understood. Also, could you guide us on the aluminum COP for Q1? What was the number in Q4?
In Q4, we were 1% down versus Q3. Looking at Q1, we could be flat to 1% up because CP coke prices have gone up. Coal looks okay for now. Flat to 1% up in Q1.
Sure. Understood. Lastly, on the FRP, Aditya FRP, by when should it start contributing to volume?
June. Already, we have sold about—I was there the day before yesterday. We have started to sell about 20 coils of foil stock already. June will be where the volumes will pick up. We are planning about 60 KT-70 KT of commercial sales this year.
Good. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, please limit your questions to two each per participant. If you have any follow-up questions, please rejoin the queue. Our next question comes from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity and congratulations on very strong numbers. The first question is on slide 32. If you see quarter on quarter, aluminum EBITDA pattern has gone up by $200. Is it possible to share some sort of a bridge to what has led to this $200 increase? How much it cost? How much would be the top line value addition and maybe alumina sales contribution?
I don't have the bridge, but I think you have been touching all the points. The cost was 1% lower. Alumina sales contributed. The specialty chemical sales did well. All this is in the upstream EBITDA.
Okay. Okay. So everything was not bad. Just on alumina sales, did we benefit a lot because of some land price increase versus what the spot was? Is it possible to share what realization was alumina versus 3Q in fourth quarter?
I think if you remember, Sumangal, in Q3, I had said that many of our prices are sort of M - 1 or Q - 1. The higher prices in Q3, I remember some of you asking me, we did not get the full impact, whereas one of our competitors had a record quarter. Some of the Q4 sales benefited from that higher pricing that was there in Q4.
Understood. For our calculation, one quarter lag is what we should kind of.
It's not one full quarter lag. No, that's not the way I would put it because three months, so we sell every month some ships. The ones that came in in January took the advantage of the higher pricing, whereas by March, we were back to when the index came down to 350, we were back down there.
Understood. Understood. That's very clear. Some of the downstream EBITDA, so you said you expect a steady increase. Any medium-term guidance? Should we kind of make it something like a $300 on a per ton basis going forward or gradually in Q4?
I have been sort of internally guiding $250-$300. It depends a little bit on how the FRP ramps up, how Silvassa gets commissioned, but I think it is between $250-$300 this year. I think after this year, going forward, we will be comfortable giving a much more tighter range.
Got it. Got it. Sir, what is our captive coal from Chakla expectation in terms of volume in FY 2027, FY 2026?
Chakla, the box cut, we are expecting to be somewhere around March, April of next year. The coal production should start probably by December of next year.
Okay. Okay. Another one year to ramp up gradually.
Yes. Yes. I think FY 2028 will see the full benefit because even Bandha, the new mine that we should be getting, actually, that box cut starts even earlier, but the splitting ratio is high. So by FY 2028, you should have both Chakla and Bandha running, which will be a major relief to Hindalco.
Understood. Understood. Just one last thing on copper. Should we expect this INR 600 crore kind of run rate on a quarterly basis given the new TCRCs that are set in?
Yeah. I think in the past, we have been guiding INR 600 crore and doing more, but this time, we will guide INR 600 crore and probably do INR 600 crore tomorrow.
Got it. Got it. Thank you so much, sir, and all the best.
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. The first question on the, you had a little slide on the project progress where you were stating that alumina seemed finally on track. I'm just wanting to check where is the engineering, ordering, and all that gives you confidence that these projects are on track? Just wanted to understand some capital cost, timeline. Where have you progressed on these?
Refinery, majority of the engineering is complete. All the big lead items have already been placed. On the Aditya refinery, we are fairly comfortable as to where the project is going and what time it will commission as per our plan. Nothing there. The copper recycling plant also, land broken, all major equipment orders put, engineering more or less complete. The two projects that are advanced, we are quite comfortable. Do not expect any surprises there. The two newer projects, which are the aluminum smelter and the copper smelter, we are in getting the EC stage and doing engineering, etc., going on now.
Those projects, there could be an element of surprise because you're mentioning these are on track on status. The engineering is still not complete. Those two projects are still there could be some surprises here or there.
Satyadeep, I do not think so. I think that the confidence on being 100% is when the engineering is done. That is the only thing we are saying. It does not mean that the smelter, just because we are doing the engineering, we expect a surprise. That is not the way I would look at it.
Okay. On the Essel Mining, Bandha coal blocks, just wanted to understand because I've seen Essel Mining over a period. They lost all the iron ore blocks after 2020 merchant auctions. More or less, it seemed like coal was the way to go. These are rated bonds that they sponsor also there. With Hindalco taking away the coal blocks on a cost basis, this is a related party transaction. That's why I'm trying to understand what is the rationale for Essel Mining. Is it just to develop coal blocks and give it away to other entities at cost? How would the lenders also look at this?
Tied to this would be when you look at Hindalco between Chakla, Meenakshi, and now Bandha coal blocks, it seems, I mean, the company is going with coal, and on the other hand, there is also the intent to lower emissions using RE -RTC. How does all these coal acquisitions tie up to that RE -RTC goal that company has to?
Good questions and quite so let me try to go one by one. I think for Essel Mining, because of the CapEx spend and all required, I think that they are quite happy that we take over the CapEx, and they will continue to be the MDO operator of the mine. So Essel today, if you know, is the MDO operator of Amelia, which is just next door to Bandha. I think for them, they will remain a service provider on the mining side, whereas companies like us with the resources will be providing the capital and having the ownership of the mine. That is the first part of the answer. The second is how does it fit in with the overall renewable strategy and what we have committed on Hindalco?
As we have been very clear, the baseload of any of the smelters for the foreseeable future still has to come from thermal. While even in Mahan, we are going to add 100-200 megawatts of renewables over the coming year, we still have to make sure that the baseload is secure. I think that having these three mines secures the baseload for the smelters existing and the expansions that we told you during the analyst meet that we had. Both Mahan and Aditya were built for 720 KT capacity. Over the next five to seven years, we will be going to that capacity. The way to look at it is that we will be increasing the renewable mix, but at the same time, balancing it out with the baseload.
I think many people have realized that if you do not have a proper baseload and just have renewables, you are going to have your grid crash on you. That is the way we look at it.
Thanks for the clarification. If I can squeeze just one quick question, that's on Novelis. Apology for asking Novelis question on the call. So we've got some investor questions that at the last earnings call, I think the expectation was that the tariff would be net positive if you net out both direct and Midwestern. But now it seems like it's a net negative impact. Just wanted to understand what changed in the last between those quarters. Was there any just so many moving news items on tariffs and all, was there any negative surprise on tariffs after third quarter? And does the guidance seem different versus 3Q?
Yes. Steve.
Yes. I think that we have been pretty consistent about the fact that we see trade deals happening. We see, in our view, a timing to be determined, but we think that there will be a USMCA 2.0. Really, when we said neutral to positive, it was taking into account that some trade deals are bound to happen. The timing of it is becoming a bit of a factor of volatility. The reason why it is negative for the time being is awaiting some of these deals to happen. I think that there is some positivity. I mean, you saw what happened with the U.K. deal. You saw the deal coming through with China. The rest of the deals, we are pretty sure are happening in the world.
As soon as we have some of those, particularly the USMCA 2.0, we will be going in that direction. You have to see this negative impact as something for the time being.
Okay. Thanks for the clarification, sir. Thank you so much, and you too.
Yeah.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. So just a question on the CapEx guidance for the domestic audience operations. Could you just give us the fiscal year 2026 and 2027 guidance?
This current year, the guidance is about INR 7,500-INR 8,000 crore. I think the next year will be peak when we will start to have many of the upstream projects kicking in. Let me give you that guidance towards the third quarter of this year when we know exactly what the cash out will be. This year, our guidance is about INR 7,500-INR 8,000 crore. Last year, we spent INR 6,500 crore just for comparison.
Sure. I mean, India's net cash flow, this can be easily funded without any debt being taken on?
Yes. Yes.
Yes. Also on the aluminum domestic FRP, the shipments have increased during this year. Given that our capacity would start coming on stream, any guidance on what type of volumes we can look at?
It is a little bit complicated in the sense that the FRP 2A 60 KT will be sold this year, 60 KT-70 KT. That is additional. Silvasa, the full ramp-up should slowly happen to maybe 15 KT more of extrusion. The copper IGT should be about 20 KT. The aluminum AC fin should be about another 20 KT. You see, many of these 20 KTs, etc., are coming on top of rolling and extrusion. What you have to realize is that we are now getting more and more engineered products. It is not just a volume gain anymore. I prefer that you start to monitor the EBITDA of the downstream going forward because it will not come because we take an aluminum extrusion, then we make it into a battery enclosure. You do transfer pricing, and then you charge further for the battery enclosure.
Those type of EBITDAs will start to come into the downstream mix. I have tried to give you the volumes that I know straight away.
Sure. So basically, what you're saying is the EBITDA per tonne will expand even if the volumes don't grow that much?
Yes. Yes. I mean, the volumes are growing in the sense that 160 KT of FRP is going to come in. I said about 60 KT-70 KT this year, the remaining next year. We get to that 600 KT of downstream that we had committed to. Then on top of that, that 600 KT will get further engineered, and there'll be more EBITDA that way.
Over the longer run, could we actually bridge the gap between the India FRP and Novelis, which probably shows you $500 per ton, or that some differential will always remain?
We will try to. Let's see how it progresses going forward. Certainly, we are aiming for the $300-plus EBITDA per ton in India in the midterm.
Right. Yes. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investech. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. The first question is on bauxite. Can you highlight what is our total requirement and where are we sourcing it from? Specifically on OMC , if we have any long-term tie-up, if you could highlight the tonnage and pricing over there. A secondary question over here. We have won a couple of composite leases, including Damchua and Surbena. The hectareage over here is quite significant. Just trying to understand where are we on those two leases as well. That is the first question on bauxite, sir.
Sorry, what was the last second part of the question?
Sir, Damchua and Surbena, those are the two composite leases that we have won. I wanted to understand what the state is.
I've never heard of these two.
Okay. I'll send you, sir, the fine print that we have. Probably, sir, you can take the first part of the question on OMC and the second on sourcing.
Yeah. See, we need, so we produce about 3.5 million tons of alumina, so roughly into three. So 7 million tons of bauxite is our requirement. So most of our, 100% of the bauxite required for our alumina smelters that provide metal-grade alumina, are from internal sources. We do not buy any. The only plant that needs to buy bauxite is Belgavi. And for Belgavi, we buy some part domestically and some part from imports. Now, OMC , currently, we have no bauxite contract for delivery, though just last month, we did take some amount of bauxite for Belgavi. Going forward, when Aditya refinery comes in place, we have a long-term MOU with OMC to provide the 3 million tons for the 1 million ton refinery we are putting in place. That is two years out from now.
Sir, this is something which is done and dusted, the long-term arrangement for 3 million ton from OMC ?
It is signed agreements with the Odisha government.
It's a signed agreement.
Yes.
That's it. Sir, my second question was on coal. I think to the earlier participant, you indicated that probably EMIL wouldn't want to undertake the CapEx, and the lease has been transferred at cost to the company. Just trying to understand, sir, what was the incremental CapEx based on the debt documents? I figure it's around INR 3,000-INR 4,000 crore. So trying to get a sense of that. Secondly, I picked up that the premium which was paid over here was around 21%. What would it mean on a rupees per Kcal basis? The reason to ask this is we have surrendered a few leases in past when they were not economically viable for us. Just trying to understand from CapEx as well as OpEx standpoint how Bandha fits in.
Yes. I think you got the numbers right. We are buying it at INR 4.8 million, which is the share capital plus the INR 10 billion debt that they have on the books to bring the mine to this point. We probably will spend another INR 40 billion over the life of the mine. That is the CapEx for Bandha. The rupees per million Kcal of Bandha will be lower than what we get from NCL today. Now, the bigger worry for us of why Bandha is important is that the NCL coal is steadily diminishing and the premiums are going up. Most of the coal from NCL is being allocated to IPPs. That is why Bandha has become very critical. To your specific question, it is better than the price we get from NCL.
Sure. Sir, I think there are two more leases under NCL. Amelia, which you indicated, and there is one more, Subhadra. Is there a need for the company to probably transfer this at a future date, or is this something which we are done with?
No, no. See, there is a subsidiary of Essel, which we are taking over that has got Bandha and has got Radhikapur East. Radhikapur East has already been surrendered. So this is the subsidiary we are taking. Subhadra, Amelia, our MDO contract that SL runs under their main legal entity. We are not touching those.
Sure. Sir, just last question. Sir, for full year, what was the sourcing mix for linkage, e-auction, and imported, and how do you see this for the next fiscal?
Full year, the linkage coal was 50%, e-auction was 47%, own mines was 2%. I do not see this mix fundamentally changing in FY 2026. I think the real change will start to happen when Chakla and Bandha get commissioned.
Sure. This is very useful, sir. Thank you so much. All the very best.
Yeah.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Somaia V. from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, first question is on Novelis, that $40 million per quarter impact, $40 million per quarter impact. Just wanted to understand the different moving parts there. One, in terms of can sheet imports or in terms of primary aluminum imports, in terms of scrap imports, or the gains that we can have out of the backward integration because nuclear steam has gone up. If you could just touch upon how each of them is kind of having a say on this impact.
Yes. Steve, Dev?
multiple.
Yeah. Yeah. There are multiple impacts that you're highlighting. We'll try and take them one at a time. One impact is the primary aluminum that comes into the U.S. because two-thirds comes from Canada into the U.S. As the tariffs got put on, Midwest premium has risen. With higher Midwest premium, we are seeing better spread as it relates to our recycling business due to that. Offsetting that, we do have a Canadian facility that serves primarily the auto and specialty markets. The coil that is being imported from that facility back into the U.S. has an impact of 25%-32%. Our IR shipments to support the beverage packaging market in the U.S., where the U.S. has zero capacity, we're importing roughly 150 KT annually, primarily from South Korea, but also some from Brazil as well. That is being impacted right now as well.
When we talk about the $40 million, we're netting those together right now. We're saying that's near-term because, as Dev said earlier, we do think there will be continued movement in the tariffs and trade deals. We also think we're in a right place from an exemption of exclusion, right? We're serving a U.S. market that does not have any supply today for can sheet. We're building a facility, the largest private sector investment in Alabama's history, adding jobs. We believe that's exactly what the administration is looking to accomplish. We think that we do have a good targeted exemption for some of this as well that we are working on with the administration.
Sure. This is quite helpful. Just a couple of clarifications here. One, in terms of this can sheet imports that we are doing, we do not have a cost where we can pass it on to the end consumer. That is why the negative impact is on us. That is the first thing. Second, when you say this $40 million net impact, we are getting a Midwest premium benefit for 60% of our backward integrated. This benefit is taken into consideration. Over and above that, we are looking at a $40 million per quarter impact. Is that the right understanding?
Yeah. On the first one, yes, we signed contracts back when we announced Dave and Ed, long-term contracts of which we do not have the ability to pass through the 232 tariffs. That is something we are, as I said, working with the administration on. The second question, do you want to table that on Midwest premium increase on recycling net $40 million?
Yes. As Steve said, we have all these moving parts. Think about it as follows: the elevated Midwest helps us to pretty much mitigate to a very significant extent the import tariff burden of the inter-region flows of metal that happen from Asia or South America to service the North American markets because we get—and by the way, we get arbitrage as well. For example, if we buy at MJP and we sell at Midwest, we get an arbitrage. That does not bother us as much from the point of view of being able to net these things off. The one that really is very high on the radar is the importation that we have to make from Kingston, Canada.
That is why I made specific reference to USMCA 2.0 because if that gets taken care of, in principle, these tariffs will stop bothering us. The arbitrages will take care of the elevated Midwest, which will still be there, will take care. In other words, the thing that is highest on our radar is really the Canadian tariffs, which if they go away through a deal, will be very, very helpful in neutralizing the impact.
Sure. Sir, quite helpful. Thanks for the clarification. Just one more question on Novelis. When we are saying scrap markets could be heading tighter, is the concern because incrementally China is going to go more towards scrap, or will the U.S. market itself, the availability of scrap, because of some more plants starting up, is going to get tighter? That was just helpful.
Yeah. A couple of things here. Very clearly, demand for scrap is going to go up because of new capacities that are coming in. A lot of the industry is following the model that we have been implementing over the last decade. We ourselves will need more scrap as we commission new capacities, for example, as we have commissioned industrial on the other end of the world, as we have commissioned the 100 KT expansion in Korea. All this means that we ourselves will need more scrap, and demand is going up faster than the supply, and we are working on that. That is exactly what we are working on, opening up new sources. The point about our view on strengthening of scrap prices, I mean, these are the macros that will influence the strengthening of the prices.
These are what we are working on in terms of mitigation actions. Now, remember one thing. I mean, to be amply clear, as we see the trends, I said it at our last running call, if you go back. Right now, we are in the phase of cycling over last year. We do not see any worsening of the situation as compared to the last two quarters. I mean, it is just that we need two more quarters of cycling over the strengthening of the scrap prices. At this time, in fact, quarter four was actually an improvement on quarter three, and the elevated premium, particularly the Midwest premium, is coming to be of help. To be clear, things are not getting any worse.
I would rather say that things have gotten a bit better, but that is just to give you the total context on where we are.
Helpful. Thank you.
Sure.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, we'll take one last question from the line of Prateek Singh from Dam Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question again. This is first, Steve and Dev on tariffs itself. Just hypothetically trying to understand, if the USMCA 2 happens and Canada is exempted, won't it also mean that the Midwest premium should also fall given the fact that Canada is a major supplier? In that case, we lose the arbitrage versus MJP, but still need to pay higher tariffs on Asian imports as long as they're not exempted. Is that understanding correct here, or am I missing something? That was the first question.
We're referring to—yeah, we're referring to how we've heard from the USMCA previously, which at that time, the primary 10% was left on. Everything else was then excluded. That is where Dev targeted a big shift for the products coming out of Kingston down into the U.S. Obviously, there's work that still needs to be done on just overall 232 primary as well, but that would be a secondary issue.
Yes. Exactly. I mean, really, what needs to kind of get captured is that overall, FRP capacity is short in the country, and therefore, downstream needs to be treated with growing demand. Downstream needs to be treated very differently to meet the country requirements and lack of capacity. That is what we are kind of even sort of aiming to see recognized as the MCA 2.0 happens.
Understood. The last question is on alumina. Two sub-questions here for Mr. Pai. First, any reason for giving alumina field guidance only for the next quarter? I mean, is this number very volatile and changes on a QOQ basis depending on maintenance and shutdowns, or safe to assume that we can do 700 KT-800 KT in 2026?
Safe to assume that we can do 700 KT-800 KT. They asked me for a quarter, so I gave a quarter, but yeah, safe to assume 700 KT-800 KT.
Understood. How do you see alumina prices going ahead, sir, given such a sharp fall that we have seen and then slight recovery? I would assume that some of the loss-making European and Chinese smelters would now have come back to green. Is there any risk of smelters restarting if alumina prices remain here, or do you see alumina prices rising up a bit once all this volatility is behind us?
Now, prices are between $350-$400. The reason it spiked is because of what Guinea did, because it is such a large supplier of bauxite to China and many alumina refineries. Only thing I can say is Guinea remains a completely volatile country, so it can always happen. When we do our planning and budgeting, we assume that it is going to be between $350 and $400.
Understood. Understood. Thanks a lot for taking my questions again.
Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. For any unanswered questions, you can connect with the IR team. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Pai for closing comments.
No, thank you for your attention during this call. I just wanted to reiterate that this quarter and this year has probably been the highest-ever EBITDA impact for Hindalco in our history. I think in some ways, it vindicates our integrated business model and our commitment towards adding more and more value-added products along with expanding the upstream. I think that on the Novelis side, we are focused on commissioning Bay Minette and getting that done. On the India side, I think you are going to see now a big upstream CapEx in the next couple of years that will bring in new volumes as we have secured the basic ingredients of our aluminum smelters, which is bauxite and coal. With that, I thank you for your attention.
Thank you. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect the line.