Please note that this conference is being recorded. I'll now turn the conference over to Megan Cochard with Investor Relations. Megan, you may begin.
Thank you, Rob, and good morning or evening, everyone. Welcome to Novelis' first quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings conference call. Hosting our call today is Steve Fisher, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Devinder Ahuja, our Chief Financial Officer. Following the presentation, the call will be open to analysts and investors for questions. This conference call is being broadcast on the internet at novelis.com in the Investors section. A replay of this call will also be available on our website. Before I turn the call over to Steve, let me remind you that today's earnings release and presentation include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Today's presentation also includes certain non-GAAP measurements. Reconciliation of these measurements is provided in the financial statements included with our earnings release and the appendix of our presentation. I'll turn the call over to Steve.
Thanks, Megan. Good morning or evening, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. Our business has demonstrated resilience in a challenging environment, delivering 1% growth in total shipments. Demand in our largest product in-market, beverage packaging, continues to be very strong, driving higher client shipments both sequentially and year over year, while demand across our other in-markets remains relatively stable in a challenging economic environment. While overall scrap prices are trending from stable to slightly lower at this time, higher scrap prices versus the prior year's historically favorable levels, along with less stable product mix and higher tariff costs, negatively impacted financial performance in the quarter. However, we are committed to defending and improving our margins. On the tariff front, we are diligently working through mitigation strategies, including advocacy for fair discipline.
A crash code has been confirmed. Please wait while you are joined to the conference. The conference is now being concluded.
Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the earnings conference call of Hindalco Industries Limited. First quarter results FY 2026. As a reminder, all participants will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal the Operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Subir Sen, Head of Investor Relations, Hindalco. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, and very good afternoon or morning, everyone. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, I welcome you all to the earnings call for the first quarter of financial year 2026. In this call, we will refer to the first quarter of financial year 2026 investor presentation posted on our company website. Some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the safe harbor language on slide number 2 of the said presentation. In this presentation, we have covered the highlights of our consolidated performance for the first quarter of the financial year versus the corresponding period of the prior years. A segment-wide comparative analysis of Novelis and Indian aluminium and copper business is also provided. The corresponding segment information of prior periods has also been restated accordingly for comparative analysis. Today, we have with us in this call from Hindalco's management, Mr.
Satish Pai, Managing Director, and Mr. Bharat Goenka, Chief Financial Officer. From Novelis' management, we have Steve Fisher, President and CEO, and Mr. Devinder Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer. Following this presentation, the forum will be open for questions and answers. Post this call, an audio replay will also be available on our company's website. Now, I'll turn this call to Mr. Pai to take you through our company's performance and key highlights for the first quarter.
Yeah, thank you, Subir. Good afternoon and morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Hindalco's earnings call today. On slides 5 - 9 of this presentation, you can see our achievements and progress across quarters of ESG for this year versus prior periods. I will now take you through the key highlights of these initiatives. At Hindalco, safety is always the highest priority. During the quarter, we unfortunately recorded one fatality across our operations. We deeply regret this incident and are committed to taking all necessary corrective actions to prevent such occurrences in the future. Our LTIFR for this quarter stands at 0.25, showing significant improvements over the previous year. At Hindalco, we continue to make strong progress on circularity and responsible waste management. In this quarter, 98% of the total waste generated was recycled or reused.
We achieved 135% recycling of bauxite residue, excluding Utkar, 98% recycling of ash, and 113% recycling of copper slag discard. In Q1 of FY 2026, we recycled 26.4 of the 19.37 million cubic meters of water consumed across our operations, reflecting our continued commitment to water circularity. To further enhance water efficiency, we are installing a 100 kiloliters per day tertiary water recycling unit at our Hirakud facility, which shall reduce our freshwater usage. Additionally, our Belagavi unit is developing an 80,000 cubic meter rainwater harvesting system that is expected to be nearly 13% of our total freshwater demand in this region. We remain deeply committed to preserving and enhancing our biodiversity in and around our areas of operations. In this quarter, biodiversity management plans have been implemented at 39 out of the 41 manufacturing and mining locations, demonstrating our systematic approach to ecosystem restoration and conservation.
As a part of our ongoing forestation efforts, 28,300 acres were planted during this quarter. Our total renewable energy capacity, primarily solar and wind, stands at 189 MW, and we are aligned towards our target of reaching 300 MW of renewable capacity by Q3 of 2026. Our aluminium-specific GHG emissions in this quarter were recorded at 19.4 tons of CO2 per ton of aluminium. This was flat compared to the same period of the last fiscal. Let me now give you some of our quarterly consolidated performance this quarter versus the same quarter of last year on slide levels. Our consolidated business segment EBITDA was flat year- on- year at INR 8,539 crore this quarter. The consolidated net profit after tax was up 30% on a year-on-year basis at INR 4,004 crore this quarter. That underscores the resilience of our integrated business model.
At Hindalco India business level, our business segment EBITDA was up 13% year- on- year at INR 4,982 crore this quarter. The net profit after tax was up 45% on a year-on-year basis at INR 2,846 crore this quarter. In our aluminium business, we are currently hedged around 20% of the commodity at a price of $2,666 per ton and hedged 18% of the currency at INR 87 per dollar for the second quarter of FY 2026. On the balance sheet side, our consolidated net debt stands at INR 34,257 crore. In the India operations, we have a net cash of INR 8,657 crore, while Novelis' net debt stands at INR 46,923 crore at the end of June 2025.
Hindalco at the consolidated level continues to maintain a strong balance sheet with net debt to EBITDA well below two times at 1.02 at the end of June 2025, which is much lower compared to the corresponding period of last year. All our strategic CapEx in India are mapped with cash flow generation in the business and are in line with our capital allocation policy. Coming to our business-wise performance for this quarter, Novelis shipments at 963 KT versus 951 KT in the prior year was up 1% year- on- year. Novelis delivered a quarterly EBITDA of $416 million, down 17% year- on- year due to elevated scrap prices and net negative tariff impact. The resultant EBITDA returns stood at $432 million versus $525 million in the prior year same quarter, down 18% year- on- year.
While Novelis' adjusted EBITDA this quarter was impacted by higher aluminium scrap prices and tariffs, strong beverage packaging demand, improving scrap spreads, and accelerated cost reduction and efforts to flow through the second half of FY 2026 will help address the impacts of tariffs and hence improve margins. We have completed the first round of organizational redesign, footprint optimization, and process improvement, and are on track to exceed over $100 million of cost savings target for this year. All our expansion projects, including Novelis' Bay Minette project, are progressing well and as planned. On Hindalco's India upstream aluminium performance this quarter, while shipments were down by 1% year- on- year and revenues were up 6% year- on- year, our quarterly EBITDA was up 17% year- on- year at INR 4,080 crore, primarily driven by lower input costs.
The resultant EBITDA per ton stood at $1,467 per ton, which was higher by 15% year- on- year , with the cost of production this quarter being the lowest for the company in the last three quarters, as benefits from operational excellence flow through the value chain. EBITDA margins were at 44% this quarter and continue to be the best in the global industry. This quarter, the Indian downstream aluminium business delivered a record performance. Quarterly shipments were up 6% year- on- year at 101 KT. Aluminium downstream delivered an all-time high quarterly EBITDA of INR 229 crore, up 108% year- on- year this quarter versus INR 110 crore in the prior period, driven by higher value additions on innovations like battery enclosures and premiumization. The resultant EBITDA per ton stood at a record $264 a ton, higher by 22% year- on- year .
On Hindalco's copper business performance this quarter, our overall metal shipments were at 124 KT, up 4% year- on- year , of which CCR volumes were at 104 KT, up 4% year- on- year . Our quarterly copper EBITDA stood at INR 673 crore, down 16% year- on- year on account of lower TCRGs, offset by better realizations in byproducts and operational efficiencies. Now, let me give you a glimpse of the current broader economic environments on slide 13 and 14. As per IMF's July 2025 update, global GDP is projected to moderate to 3% in 2025, from 3.3% in 2024. Growth in both advanced and emerging economies is expected to moderate in 2025 to 1.5% versus 1.8% in 2024 and 4.1% versus 4.3% in 2024, respectively. Growth in the U.S.
is expected to moderate to 1.9% in 2025, from 2.8% in 2024, weighed down by rising trade policy uncertainty and weakening private demand, while target fiscal incentives are expected to provide a partial cushion. China is projected to grow at 4.8%, driven by robust exports and supportive fiscal measures. Global trade developments will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the economic outlook. Despite some de-escalation, tariffs remain at historically elevated levels. Trade policy uncertainty is likely to persist, as only a limited number of countries have secured bilateral agreements with the U.S. Global headline inflation is expected to ease further from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, with core inflation showing signs of moderation. However, inflation in the U.S. is expected to remain elevated due to tariff pass-through and fiscal expansion. Amidst a fluid global environment, India continues to maintain economic stability.
Real GDP growth held strong at 6.5% in FY 2025. The growth is expected to be further supported by strong agricultural output, healthy rural demand, and a revival in urban consumption. High-frequency indicators point to a broad-based recovery, with services activity remaining robust, recovery in manufacturing, and investment activity gaining traction. Looking ahead, the RBI projects GDP growth to remain at 6.5% for FY 2026. Headline inflation is expected to moderate further to 3.7% in FY 2026, down from 4.6% in FY 2025, driven by easing food and fuel prices and benign core inflation. However, geopolitical tensions, along with global trade and weather-related uncertainties, remain key downside risks. In response to the evolving growth-inflation dynamics, RBI reduced the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% in June. The monetary policy stance has now shifted from accommodative to neutral, with the RBI committed to supporting growth while maintaining price stability.
Moving on to the aluminium industry outlook on slides 15 and 16. Starting with slide 15, in China, production in Q2 calendar year 2025 reached 11 million tons, with consumption increasing to 12 million tons, resulting in a deficit of 1 million tons. The production in China in the first half of calendar year 2025 saw 2% growth to 22 million tons, led by growth in production in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, resulting in a deficit of 1 million tons. Consumption grew by 4% to 23 million tons, primarily driven by sharp rise in solar installations and a 50% increase in new energy vehicle production. However, the construction sector continued to face challenges with declining investments.
In the rest of the world, production grew marginally in Q2 calendar year 2025 to 7.5 million tons, while consumption was flattish at 7 million tons, leading to a surplus of 0.5 million tons. With the surplus in the rest of the world that is offset by deficit in China, the overall global aluminium market had a marginal deficit in Q2 calendar year 2025. In the first half of calendar year 2025, production remained flat at 15 million tons, while consumption grew marginally by 1% to 14 million tons, driven by strong demand in India and Brazil, but offset by weaker demand in Europe and North America, resulting in a surplus of 1 million tons. Turning to the demand of aluminium in India on slide 16, Q1 FY 2026 demand is expected to reach 1.4 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth.
Key drivers of this demand are due to strong growth in the electrical and solar panel segments. The global FRP demand continues to be resilient, supported by long-term sustainability trends and structural demand drivers across key markets. In beverage packaging, sustainability preferences are clearly influencing packaging choices, driving a steady shift towards aluminium. Demand remains strong across regions, underscoring aluminium's growing relevance as the preferred sustainable solution. In the automotive sector, the focus on lightweighting and innovation to enhance vehicle performance remains a key growth lever. While macroeconomic weakness in China and Europe is leading to slower growth and build rates, North America continues to benefit from a favorable vehicle mix, particularly SUVs and trucks, which typically use a higher share of aluminium. However, ongoing tariff-related uncertainties are impacting near-term demand momentum. The specialty segments remain mixed, while the structurally undersupplied U.S. housing market provides a long-term tailwind.
Demand in building and construction remains stable but somewhat subdued. Broader macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, including tariffs and a slower-than-expected EV rollout, are also muting demand in specific segments like batteries, truck and trailer, and light gauge products. Aerospace demand remains strong, with persistent orders and multi-year OEM backlogs continuing to support sectoral growth. Sustainability is also gaining prominence in aerospace material selections. However, high inventory levels and global tariffs are impacting parts of the supply chain, adding to complexity in ramping up production. Overall, while near-term challenges persist in some geographies and segments, the medium to long-term outlook for global FRP demand remains positive, underpinned by secular trends in sustainability, lightweighting, and innovation across industries. The India FRP demand in financial year 2026 is supposed to grow by around 6% to 7% on a year-on-year basis, led by a strong demand from the construction, packaging, and consumer durable sector.
Turning to the copper industry on slides 18 and 19, in quarter 2 calendar year 2025, Chinese production reflected a growth of around 8% year-on-year, reaching 3.2 million tons, while consumption increased by around 8% year-on-year at 4.4 million tons, resulting in a deficit of around 1.2 million tons. In the rest of the world, production grew by around 2% year-on-year at 3.7 million tons, while consumption increased by around 1% year-on-year at 2.9 million tons, leading to a surplus of 0.7 million tons this quarter. As a result, overall global production of copper grew by around 5% year-on-year at 6.8 million tons, and consumption increased by around 5% year-on-year at 7.3 million tons, leading to a deficit of 0.5 million tons this quarter.
On the domestic copper market, this quarter demand, including domestic supplies and scrap, increased by 19% year-on-year at 423 KT versus 356 KT in the prior period. The annual benchmark TC/RC for 2025 was finalized at $0.054 a pound, reflecting a steep decline of 73% from 2024 levels of $0.205 a pound. The global concentrate market remains under significant supply pressures, with spot TC/RCs dropping to record lows, driven by intense competition and aggressive bidding by traders. That said, spot smelters' buying terms now appear to have stabilized around the negative $0.10 per pound. Details of the operational and financial performance in each of our business segments this quarter compared to the corresponding period of last year, as well as the previous quarters, are covered in further slides and annexes to this presentation. Let me conclude today's presentations with some key takeaways.
Hindalco is future-ready, aligned to its core philosophy of engineering better futures. Our strategic focus is to scale up capacities across both aluminium and copper upstream, and to quadruple downstream EBITDA by FY30 from the 2024 baseline remains intact. In quarter 1 FY 2026, we delivered a global industry-leading aluminium upstream EBITDA per ton, reaffirming our position in the first quartile of the global cost curve. This performance reflects our strong operational efficiency, cost discipline, and consistent execution. Our key upstream expansion projects like Chakla and Meenakshi captive coal mines, Aditya Alumina Refinery, Aditya Aluminium Smelter, and copper smelter are progressing well and remain on schedule. On the downstream front, Hindalco reported its highest ever quarterly aluminium downstream EBITDA in EBITDA per ton. Aluminium downstream EBITDA grew by 108% year-on-year in Q1, supported by strong volumes and better product mix.
We have begun commissioning of key projects, including the Aditya FRP facility and the copper tube plant with innergroove tube capabilities. In line with our strategy to build a high-margin differentiated platform, we announced the acquisition of a 100% equity stake in U.S.-based alumina chemicals manufacturer AluChem at an enterprise value of $125 million that is subject to statutory approvals. This marks an important step towards strengthening our global specialty alumina portfolio. Our copper e-waste and recycling projects also remain on track for FY 2027 commissioning, reinforcing our commitment to sustainability-driven growth. In Novelis, despite a tough macroeconomic environment, our business continues to hold steady, delivering a 1% growth in shipments this quarter. Beverage packaging, our largest end-use segment, remains a key growth driver, registering a solid growth of 8% year- on- year . Other end markets have remained relatively stable, even amid mounting economic pressures.
To mitigate margin pressure and drive long-term profitability, we are moving swiftly on our three-year $300 million structural cost reduction program. The early actions include organization restructuring, streamlining our manufacturing footprint, and process enhancements are already delivering results. Based on accelerated progress, we have now raised our FY 2026 exit savings target to over $100 million, up from the earlier estimate of $75 million. Moreover, improving scrap spreads and accelerated cost reduction benefits in FY 2026 will help address the impact of tariffs leading to improved margins going forward. On the investment front, we are staying ahead by building capacity aligned with long-term growth in sustainable aluminium demand. Our Bay Minette Greenfield rolling and recycling facility in the U.S. is progressing on schedule. At the same time, we are ramping up operations at Guthrie, Kentucky, and Ulsan, South Korea, both of which were commissioned late last fiscal year.
Additionally, this quarter, we started commissioning a hot mill debottlenecking project at our Logan JV plant in the U.S., which will unlock an incremental 80 KT of hot mill capacity once fully ramped. Our disciplined capital allocation, superior execution, and the focus on high-value segments will drive sustainable growth regardless of near-term market volatility. Hindalco isn't just prepared for the future but is advancing into its next phase with scale, purpose, and confidence. Thank you very much for your attention, and we will now open the forum up for any questions you have.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Mr. Amit Mu rarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. On the downstream aluminium business, you have posted a strong margin yet again at $264 a ton. I just wanted to understand what is driving that, and also with Aditya FRP starting, what can we expect the margin to be in the coming quarter and year?
What is driving the downstream EBITDA improvement is we are moving up the value chain. We, instead of just selling extrusions, are now selling battery enclosures to EV manufacturers. That gives us a margin on the extrusion as well as a further margin on the end product, which is fabricated. We have a number of examples like that where we are starting to move up the value chain, and hence the EBITDA per ton is increasing. The other point to note is we are roughly shipping about 100 KT on the aluminium downstream in India. Once the FRP 2A comes in and the Silvassa plant reaches capacity, we should be shipping 150 KT because our capacity then goes to 600 KT. Over the next quarter, you're going to steadily see the volume and the EBITDA per ton improving.
Okay, in that case, can we expect a $300+ number kind of coming through maybe sometime by the end of this year or next year?
I think that's our target. I think that you know it'll be between 250 and 300.
Sure. On Aditya FRP now, what is the scheduled commissioning status, and what is the volume that we can expect this year and next year?
This year, we are targeting roughly 70 KT. We have started selling commercial from June, July months already, and the ramp-up is going well. We plan for about 70 KT, but I'm hoping we can do a bit more if the ramp-up goes smoothly.
Got it. Also, on the aluminium COP, could you give guidance for Q2 and how was it in Q1?
In Q1, we were pleasantly happy that the cost was down 3% versus Q4. The reason was because we got a much higher amount of linkage coal. Some of it was due in the NCL region, which is our most difficult area. Linkage coal was around 63%, and we got the linkage coal. Our cost was down 3% versus Q4. I think Q2 is traditionally our most difficult quarter for coal because it's the monsoon. I think that our costs will go up by about 3% in Q2 because of the monsoon and the coal impact. Also, CP coke prices have gone a little bit higher. Q1 was a very pleasant surprise for us with the cost coming down by 3%, but Q2 probably will go back to Q4 levels of pricing cost.
Sure. Lastly, could you provide the alumina sales volume in the quarter as well?
Alumina sales in Q1 was 170 KT, and in Q2 should be more like 190 KT - 200 KT.
Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address your questions from all the participants in this conference, please limit your questions to two per participant. Should you have any follow-up questions, we would request you to rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Mr. Ritesh Shah from Investec India. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is, earlier on the call yesterday, we gave an opportunity and asked, I wanted to understand what is the underlying Midwest and LME assumption that we are making over there, and if you can provide any sensitivity around that, it would be great.
Steve? Dev?
Yeah, I'm here. The $60 million takes in all factors that we talked about yesterday on a per-quarter basis, with the tariff rate at 50% today. That includes coils coming from Korea, Brazil. It's the implications on our China business itself. The underlying aluminum assumption is not the most sensitive part of the equation. You can roughly think about it at current LME prices. The more sensitive is the premium, the Midwest Premium associated in the North American marketplace, and then some of the offset drop in premiums in the other regions. The underlying aluminum assumption itself isn't the most sensitive piece of the equation.
What is the Midwest Premium that we have assumed over here? Is it closer to $1,500 when we give this number of $60 million indicative impact?
It is. It is close to $1,500, correct.
Okay. Would you like to give some sensitivity around the Midwest Premium?
The Midwest Premium historically trades in the $400 true basis premium. As you think about the setting of the Section 232 tariffs going from 25% up to 50%, most of the flow of aluminium comes from Canada down into the U.S. In essence, the majority now of the 50% Section 232 tariff is embedded into the Midwest Premium, plus the logistics premium.
Sure. Just a follow-up over here. When we give this number of $60 million, are we also factoring in the adverse impact of price elasticity of demand, and the product mix will be definitely less desirable than what we would have anticipated?
No, we are not. That is not part of the $60 million. Demand destruction, as we've talked about in the overall consumer demand to date, you know, North America markets, beverage packaging stayed strong. We do continue to see a healthy auto business, especially with what we're selling into with larger vehicles. Ford had a very positive quarter itself, our largest customer. The specialties markets are stable and going sideways. This is not factoring in any potential inflationary factors that could cause, you know, economic headwinds and demand destruction in the second half of the year.
Sure, that's helpful. Thank you, Steve. My second question is for Mr. Pai. You indicated on copper e-waste and recycling projects. Is it possible to indicate what sort of cash flows can we expect from this particular business, given it's not very far now?
I think it would be fair to say.
Cash flows, ROCE.
Yeah, the ROCE, I mean, most of the IRRs on these projects are higher than mid-teens in the copper recycling. The margins are 2 - 3x of the smelting business. Of course, it's fair to say TC/RCs are fairly low now. Because it's a scrap-based copper production, the margins, let's say, are going to be very, very healthy.
Sure. I'll turn back to you. Thank you so much. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mr. Sumangal from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah, good evening, and thank you for the chance. The first question is on the captive coal mine. Given that now we are nearing, is it possible to share what is the commercial, what is the volumes we are looking at in FY 2027 and 2028-29 from captive coal mines, all the three put together, Chakla, Meenakshi, and Bandha?
You want the three-year projection. Let me tell you, the box cut is going to be this year for both Chakla and Bandha. Commercial coal will start somewhere February, March, April of next year. I think that Chakla in the first year should be producing, we are hoping, around half a million to a million tons. Bandha, because the stripping ratio is so very high, the first coal will only come towards the end of FY 2027. Meenakshi, of course, because we just got it, the production is more like late FY 2028.
Okay. Chakla and Bandha.
Three mines put together. Sorry?
Sorry. Go ahead, sir. Please complete.
The three mines put together roughly will give us around 20 million tons of coal when they are running fully.
2027 is just one, maybe one and a half million tons, and then FY 2028 is when we actually see an increase in coal.
Yes.
Okay. Understood. How should we look at CapEx increasing over the next 2-3 years? If you could just give some ballpark annual CapEx sense to us for the India business.
Yeah, I'll give you a, this year we are at INR 7,500 -INR 8,000 crore. Next year will be around INR 15,000 crore.
Okay. FY 2028 would be the peak, somewhere higher?
I don't think so. I think between FY 2027, 2028-2029, because we'll try to make sure that we phase the CapEx a little bit. Next year will be the peak because Aditya Refinery copper recycling would be largely complete, and then the first part of the aluminium smelter expansion will be coming in. The second smelter expansion and all that, which we have announced in our INR 50,000 crore plan, we will phase it a little bit. Not ready to give you exact numbers for 2028-2029, but next year will be INR 15,000 crore.
Understood. Just one last question.
Sorry to intervene, sir.
Okay.
Could you please rejoin the queue ?
No problem.
Thank you. Thank you and all the best.
Yes.
The next question is from the line of Mr. Prateek Singh from DAM Capital Advisors Limited. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, if you could elaborate a bit more on the, when we say copper and e-waste recycling, can we assume that a bulk of it would be e-waste, or would we also be procuring scrap, like used motors, Mulberry scrap, and things like that? Given that e-waste still is something which is in a nascent stage in India, procuring other kinds of scrap might be a bit easier. That's the first question. To elaborate a bit more on the copper recycling part.
Yeah, I think that first, by the way, e-waste is quite well available in India, and in fact, it gets exported to Belgium, Umicore, and all that. To your specific question, yes, we will start with a lot more copper scrap and slowly build up the e-waste.
Understood. The second one is on the copper business. What kind of hedging gains or losses we book this quarter, and does the guidance of INR 600 crore?
Copper is largely an offset hedging model, so there is not much gain or loss on copper hedging. The aluminium is the forward where we have that, and yes, the INR 600 crore guidance still holds.
Great. Thanks. Thanks for answering my questions and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mr. Rajesh Majumdar from B&K Securities. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah, good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. I had a question on the acquisition of AluChem. Can you give us some color on the EBITDA of this company last year and what is the scalability of this business? I understand specialty alumina is a high-margin business. Some color on that acquisition, please.
Yeah, so we bought this company, as we said, $125 million EV valuation. The EBITDA is roughly $25 million. We made this acquisition more to get access to technology like tabular alumina, low soda, high purity, because these are the products that actually today are imported into India. We want to bring that technology to India very quickly as well. If you remember from the April investor call, we are roughly selling 500,000 tons of specialty alumina, and we want to get to about 1 million tons over the next 3-4 years. It is a part of that broader strategy to sell more specialty alumina, but we need to get access to technology. We are actively looking to make technology acquisitions as well.
This was not really an acquisition to gain large volumes in the U.S., but more to gain access to technology that we can then deploy in India.
Just a follow-up question. Are we looking at incremental CapEx in this area, and any kind of numbers on that or even acquisitions?
We are actively looking, but I can tell you the CapEx in this type of business is more like the INR 200 crore, INR 300 crore type of deals. It's not large numbers. It's a high-tech business, so that technology is very critical. It's not capital-intensive, it's more a technology-intensive business.
Right. My second question is for the Novelis team. I was in the call, actually couldn't ask this question. We've seen a number of your U.S. peers repeatedly giving strong guidance for 1Q, 2Q, and for current 2025 as well. Since a large part of our business is in the U.S., we have, for the last two quarters, refrained from doing so. Is there any great difference in our business and, say, let's say some of your peers in the U.S., more who have been like Constellium, who've been repeatedly increasing the guidance and giving a better picture of 2025?
I can ask. We have already indicated that we are bottoming out at this EBITDA level, and this is despite all the headwinds that are coming at us, whether it is tariffs or the continued scrap situation, which is better, but still elevated.
What is specifically impacting us is the fact that given the constrained capacities in the U.S., this is something important for you to understand. At this moment, we are capacity constrained in the U.S., which is forcing us to have more inter-region movement of products in a tariff regime. That is what is muting things. That is exactly what we are working on right now with tariff mitigation actions. I want to be very clear because I think there was some confusion from the notes that came out from yesterday's call that our tariff mitigation actions are absolutely distinct and over and above the cost takeout plan. This is a step to have some more manufacturing capacity in the U.S., which will be a tariff mitigation plan. Now, to your question, why are we not giving guidance? We simply see moving parts, and therefore, we want to refrain.
Getting too much ahead of ourselves does not mean that we will not have all the improvement actions playing in. We are very confident about our execution. From here, things will look up to the point about EBITDA bottoming out. Just because we are not giving guidance, given the number of variables, we want to be a bit prudent, does not mean that we don't have a plan of action. In fact, we have a very robust plan of action in progress in order to defend margins and improve margins. That's really the plan. We have always said that our anchor is a $600 per ton, and our confidence level that we have all the actions in place to get there is very high.
Just to add to that, remember that the other people don't have a shipment coming in from other countries into the U.S.
Exactly.
They said we have coming from Korea and Canada, and that is actually the negative impact that we are dealing with. The others don't have that point.
Can I just ask a follow-up on the total volume that we ship in from Korea and Canada?
Yes. Altogether, from Korea and a little bit from South America, it is about 170 KT approximately that we bring into the U.S., which just shows how we are addressing the volume of demand gap that we are addressing ourselves. From the order of about 90 KT annual.
Thank you, sir. Thanks. That's helpful. I'll join back in the queue. Thanks.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. Participants, we request you to restrict your questions to two. Should you have any follow-up questions, we request you to rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Mr. Parthiv from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thank you for the opportunity. This is pertaining to the captive coal blocks, especially Chakla and Bandha. I believe a couple of quarters back, or it was indicated that some cost savings from Chakla would be around $7, right? I just wanted to understand if you can quantify what would be the cost savings from Chakla, Bandha, and Meenakshi once all ramps up on a per-ton basis?
Actually, just to be on record, we have never given an exact number of how much the saving will be. I think that the way to look at it is that today, the cheapest coal that we have is on the linkage side. We have said that when all our captive mines come on, we should get about a 30% reduction in the cost level. Specific mine by mine, we have not given any guidance.
Sure. My second question is pertaining to the copper, you know, concentrating the crunch globally. Can you help us understand by when can we get back to that, you know, surpass that 600 and, you know, 700 levels and go back to that 800 EBITDA level per quarter?
I think that it would be fair to say that TC/RCs are going to remain quite subdued even next year because supply-demand is not balanced. I think the way we are trying to mitigate that is by getting into copper scrap. We are putting 50 KT of copper scrap that will come online by December of next year. That 50 KT, then we will expand up to 200 KT in modules of 50 KT. That is one way that we are going to get a sustainable increase in the EBITDA of copper. The second is we are getting into more value-add. Even if we don't make much money from copper, TC/RC, and cathodes, we are expanding downstream of copper to copper fragments, to copper foil, to copper alloy rods, and more downstream of copper that gives us the additional EBITDA per ton coming in.
TC/RCs themselves are difficult to predict till more new mines come in. I think that the next couple of years, TC/RCs are going to remain subdued.
Sure. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mr. Satyadeep Jain from AMBIT Capital. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi. Thank you. Now, Mr. Pai, first question on the smelter. We understand you've already placed an EPC order for the alumina refinery to L&T. There's no news flow around the smelter. You're talking about phasing up the smelter also. Maybe can you talk about the plan, the contracting, and what's the update there?
Alumina Refinery, copper recycling, all orders placed, construction started. These are the two projects that are ongoing at peak right now. The aluminium 180- pot expansion, we are now starting to place orders and will move fast ahead. I think that the next pot addition that we had already put in and the copper smelter that we are doing in, copper smelter, we still have to go to the public hearing and EC process there. Those are the ones that are going to be FY 2028 onwards. The alumina refinery and the copper recycling is FY 2026-2027 peak spent.
Okay, you expect both refinery and smelter to get commissioned in FY 2028?
The 180- pot will come in more or less with the refinery, yes. Because the refinery project, we already got the EC, and we have started to place the orders. The peak spend of that smelter will probably happen in FY 2028. The copper smelter is the one that we will probably, you know, we'll give you the timing when that comes in.
Okay. The other one was the RERTC. Just want to check. I think it was earlier expected to commission earlier this year. What is the update there? Would that be ready by the time the smelter comes out?
Unfortunately, all these renewable power projects in India are running late. We had expected June that we would start to get 100 MW of RTC. Now we expect it to be more like October, November. I think that the renewable power mix is going to take some time to come in because in India, what is happening is that grid connectivity approvals are becoming quite slow. I think that what we will do is that as long as we have thermal power, we will not slow down our expansion projects. We will continue to strive towards the 30% renewable target. It would be fair to say that as long as we have coal and thermal power, we will not slow down our projects because of that.
Okay. Because in the cost, earlier, you indicated that given RPO obligations and coal cost increase, generally, you don't expect any meaningful change in cost. Is that standstill there in terms of cost for power shields?
If two years out, we look at, and with our own coal mines coming in, we expect our coal cost to be about 30% lower than linkage prices.
This would be higher versus captive power, right?
Hello? Sir, are we online? Hello? Hello, sir. Are we online? Participants, please give us a moment while we reconnect to the management.
Yeah, can you hear us?
Yes, sir. Yes.
All right. Satyadeep, I don't know if I'm just going to repeat the answer. Sorry, your question. You were saying what power is cheaper than captive power?
The new RERTC coming in, that would be captive power using captive coal, using captive mines. They would be materially cheaper versus the RERTC power coming in, even after you factor in RPO.
It is true that the power from the captive sources will be cheaper than RTC power, yes. The advantage of RTC over a 10 - 15 year period is that it does not inflate. When we do the math over a 5 -1 0-year period, the RTC power is also attractive.
Okay. Fair enough. Thank you so much .
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mr. Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock Broking Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, sir. The first question was, you know, on the copper business. You mentioned that probably spot TC/RCs were somewhere in the negative region. How much exposure do we have in our business to the spot TC/RC or none at all?
Very little. Very little because more than 85% - 90% is long-term contracts. When we go on the spot, we are looking for specific cargos that are heavy on gold, etc. We have not got a single supply on negative TC/RC is what I can tell you.
Sure, sir. Have most of the lower contract TC/RCs already flown into the business, or will some of them still flow through in the next quarter?
It will still flow through because if you look at the effective TC/RC this quarter, it was about $0.11, whereas the benchmark is $0.05. We are also taking concentrates of different qualities and trying to maximize our return. We sometimes look, because it's in India, we look for more gold-heavy concentrates. We try to do different things to mitigate, but it has not all flown in yet.
Yeah, we still maintain our 6% factoring all that.
Yes. Yes, because we have the sulfuric acid and the downstream chain that is actually providing the bulk of our profits.
Sure, sir. Lastly, in the accounts, we mentioned we're taking an impairment loss of INR 160 crore for several coal mines. Which coal does it say we will share?
Kathautia.
Okay.
We are in the process of returning Kathautia. For that, we had to write off some of the mining rights, etc.
Out of the earlier coal blocks that we had won, are we running any of those mines, or have most of them already been surrendered?
Out of four, two have been surrendered. The third one is going to be surrendered, Kathautia. We are running only 4x4 right now, that too at a limited amount based on need.
Sure. Obviously, the linkage coal probably is more beneficial compared to those captive coals.
Correct. Correct. You know, sometimes in the monsoons and all that, then four by four for the last four monsoons has come useful because the quality of coal is much better. Normally, coal during monsoons, the GCB drops a lot. Rather than get imported coal to mix, we use 4x4 .
Right. Yeah, thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Somaiah from Avendus Spark Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Thank you. I'm on.
Sir, your voice is appearing as muffled. Could you come again, please?
Yeah, is it better now?
Okay, please go on.
Yeah. My first question is for Novelis. If you see quarter on quarter amongst the regions in terms of growth and EBITDA, Latin and Asia, the latter has been better compared to Europe and the U.S. That means we're relatively insulated in terms of scrap spread declines here. That's the first part of the question. Second, if you could just help us understand a bit on the sourcing of scrap, I mean, typically what is the span for a contract and what is the price lag with which it comes?
Your first question was whether Asia and South America are relatively insulated. Is that your question?
Yeah.
Yeah. Let's talk about Asia. Asia, the markets are doing very well. Also, Asia is getting the benefit of the demand in North America because, as I already alluded to earlier, we are using Asian capacities to meet North America demand. Now, you see that volumes sequentially are up in Asia, 201 KT - 215 KT. You know by now that in our case, operating leverage works very well on incremental volumes. Between the peak waters, the overall situation on recycling is stable to positive. Basically, because of better scale, better volumes, we have got the benefit of that. You see a steady EBITDA performance sequentially. As far as South America goes, I would say that the market is doing pretty well. It is steady. Seasonality apart, because fourth quarter is seasonally the best quarter in South America, it is slightly lower in this quarter. It's basically steady performance.
You know that just shows up in the steady EBITDA. The overall scrap situation, again, is stable to positive between the two quarters. These are all the factors to understand for Asia and South America.
Just a clarification there. In terms of volume and operating leverage, I get that part. In terms of, let's say, absolute increase in scrap prices quarter on quarter across these four regions where Latin and Asia are relatively, I mean, lower in terms of increase compared to Europe and North America, does that all?
You're saying on scrap prices?
Yeah, correct.
I would say that between the two, overall, globally, it has been kind of steady between the two quarters, steady to improving. The one which has benefited for some part of the quarter, the full benefit will come in the current ongoing quarter, from the much higher premiums. We will see a more distinct benefit of that in the current quarter. Let's say that between the two quarters, the overall scrap availability, spreads, etc., have been kind of steady to positive. That has not played a major negative role for sure between the two quarters. I can make this comment across geographies. In Europe, we have been impacted by the drop in the local market premium, ECDP. There is a bit of an impact of that. Largely, I would say stable situation to a bit positive is the way to think about scrap between the two quarters.
Got it, sir. Sir, in terms of U.S. scrap sourcing, if you could just help us in terms of roughly what level of sourcing is contracted and how much do we buy on spot? I mean, how much is kind of getting imported for us instead of domestically sourced?
Yeah. Before the start of the year, in the U.S., we are contracted well over 50%. The reason for that is very clear. We don't want to take volume risks. We want to make sure that we have access to scrap. Given the situations we have been seeing, it is always prudent to make sure that we have secured supplies and some certainty in the spread. By implication, the rest of the scrap is secured in the spot market.
This 50%, what we are contracted, the pricing for this will be a three-month average, six-month average? How does it work?
Look, we are getting into details that we normally don't, but indicatively, what I can tell you is that we contract in the most, and in some cases, we link it to external indexes. Not too many of those cases, but in some cases, we do link it to external indexes. There are different kinds of contractings, but these are the two ways in which we do it.
Thank you, sir. One clarification. We did speak about this $60 million, in fact. Otherwise, let's keep aside this, you know, taking quantities from other regions. Left alone, the U.S. operations for someone who's procuring scrap in the domestic market and getting the benefits of higher Midwest Premium, you should have seen a QOQ increase in backward integration probably. That's the right way to understand?
You are saying that we should have had a lot more improvement because of the higher Midwest. Is that the implication of your question?
Yeah, yeah. I mean, compared to a scrap price increase, the Midwest has kind of done well. We should have ideally flown. Is this part of the reported EBITDA, or is it because we are getting via the metal price lag, it's not actually getting reflected?
Yeah. Metal price lag is a completely different matter. I can quickly explain that to you. Coming to your underlying question or concern, the Midwest basically went up much later in the quarter. The increase to $1,100 or $1,500 that we have seen came towards the later end of the quarter. We are yet to see the full benefit of that. That will be sitting in the scrap inventories and will get unlocked as we get into this quarter. That's what it is. Metal price lag, we should not mix it. All that is in EBITDA. To your point, does the scrap benefit and all the benefit of the Midwest going up, widening spreads, does it get captured in EBITDA? Yes, it does. There is a bit of a timing element to that. Metal price lag is a very different thing.
Metal price lag and the benefit that you see there is because the Midwest goes up. We see the benefit of the inventory, which we have bought at lower Midwest and we sell at higher Midwest. That is what creates a metal price lag. That's really what it is.
Got it.
That's the low EBITDA.
Okay. This is basically for the non-integrated part, which we have moderate or lower end.
No problem. I'll take it later. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ms. Raashi from Citig roup. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Could you please just repeat the India cash number?
You mean how much cash we have in the treasury?
Yes, please.
Yeah, it's about INR 18,000 crore.
Net is 11?
Net is 11 of the debt. The treasury has about INR 18,000 crore.
Okay. This is just at the India level, right? INR 11,000 crore net?
Yes.
Okay.
Long-term debt is about INR 7,000 crore. Treasury is about INR 18 crore.
Okay. The CapEx in India in the first quarter?
INR 1,273 crore. Guidance for the full year is about INR 7,500 -INR8,000 crore.
Got it. For the hedges, you said 20% of the commodities hedged at $2,666 and 18% is at $87 for the second quarter, right?
Yeah. Correct.
Okay. Thank you. That's it.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in the interest of time, that was the last question. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you for your attention. I think that, you know, on one hand, the India business is doing very well. On the other hand, I think Novelis has a clearly outlined plan of how they're going to handle the headwinds with the measures that they are taking. I think that based on that, I think second half of this year, you're going to see an improvement in the Novelis performance. With that, I thank you for your attention, everyone.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. In case of any questions, we request you to connect with the Investor Relations team at Hindalco. On behalf of Hindalco Industries Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.