Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the earnings conference call of Hindalco Industries' second quarter results for FY 2026. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Subir Sen, Head of Investor Relations at Hindalco. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, and a very good afternoon or morning, everyone. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, I welcome you all to the earnings call for the second quarter of financial year 2026. In this call, we will refer to the second quarter of financial year 2026 investor presentation posted on our company's website. Some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the safe harbor language on slide number two of the said presentation. In this presentation, we have covered the key highlights of our consolidated performance for the second quarter of financial year 2026 versus the corresponding period of the previous year. A segment-wise comparative financial analysis of Novelis and the Indian aluminum and copper business is also provided. The corresponding segment information of prior periods has been restated accordingly for a comparative analysis.
Today, we have with us on the call from Hindalco's management, Mr. Satish Pai, Managing Director; Mr. Bharat Goenka, Chief Financial Officer. From Novelis's management, we have Mr. Steve Fisher, President and CEO; and Mr. Dev Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer. Following this presentation, the forum will be open for questions and answers. Post this call, an audio replay will also be available on our company's website. Now, let me turn this call to Mr. Pai to take you through company's performance and key highlights in the second quarter of fiscal 2026.
Yeah, thank you, Subir, and good afternoon and morning to everyone. Thank you for joining Hindalco's earnings call today. On slides five to nine of this presentation, you can see our progress across quarterly metrics of safety and sustainability for this year versus prior periods. I'll now take you through the key highlights of these initiatives. At Hindalco, safety is always our highest priority, and our LTIFR for this quarter stands at 0.27. To reinforce leadership commitment and safety engagement, we have now told every unit head to serve as a night duty officer on the shop floor once every 10 days, followed by their direct reportees. At Hindalco, we continue to make strong progress on circularity and responsible waste management. In this quarter, 78% of the total waste generated was recycled or reused, indicating stronger waste management performance in this monsoon period.
We achieved 104% recycling of bauxite residue, excluding Utkal, 96% recycling of ash, and 119% recycling of copper slag this quarter. Our specific freshwater consumption in aluminum has reduced year-on-year with the implementation of the tertiary water recycling unit and zero liquid discharge systems at Aditya and Kuppam, along with the condensate polishing unit at Utkal Alumina. In copper, the specific freshwater consumption is also reduced compared to prior period on account of higher production volumes. We remain deeply committed to preserving and enhancing our biodiversity in and around the areas of operation. We have created a green wall at Aditya by planting 1,500 fully grown trees to reduce dust emissions and support Hindalco's mission of clean air. In H1 2026, we expanded green cover with 11,150 sq m of Miyawaki plantation and planted about 4.41 lakh saplings across locations to strengthen greenbelts, boost biodiversity, and improve environmental quality.
Additionally, we launched our No Net Loss initiative with habitat restoration near Aditya Aluminum in Odisha and Bharuch in Gujarat, reviving degraded forests and enhancing native biodiversity. At the end of this quarter, our renewable energy capacity stands at 292 MW powered by solar, wind, and hydro resources. We are on track to add another 230 MW in the coming quarter and are well advanced in our round-the-clock renewable energy initiatives, with 130 MW of storage-based power to be deployed this year, taking our total renewable capacity to 522 MW by the end of this financial year. This achievement reflects our commitment to clean energy and reducing carbon intensity as we move towards a greener and more sustainable future. Our aluminum-specific greenhouse gas footprint for the quarter was 19.47 tons of CO2 per ton of aluminum produced.
Now, let me give you a glimpse of the current broader economic environment on slide 11. According to IMF's October 2025 update, growth is projected to ease from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 3.1% in 2026. This slowdown is broad-based. Advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 1.8%, and the U.S. growth is easing from 2.8% to 2%. Emerging markets and developing economies are also expected to stock in slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%. While the U.S. introduced higher tariffs earlier this year, subsequent trade deals and policy adjustments have helped temper some of the extremes. Still, uncertainty around global economic stability remains high. Some protectionist policies have been reversed, and global economic activity has shown temporary resilience, supported in part by the front-loading ahead of impending tariff deadlines.
Global trade and immigration policies will remain key drivers of economic outlook going forward. Headline inflation is forecasted to decline from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, although U.S. inflation may rise in the second half of the year due to tariff-related cost pass-throughs to consumers. Amid a tepid global environment, India continues to demonstrate resilience. Real GDP grew by 7.8% in Q1 FY 2026, supported by robust growth of 6.3% in industry and 9.3% in services. While external headwinds, 50% U.S. tariffs, and weakening global demand pose challenges, a strong set of domestic tailwinds is sustaining momentum. A series of measures have been introduced to unlock the potential of the industrial sector and enhance competitiveness, including the rollout of a simplified GST 2.0. A front-loaded monetary policy easing is lowering borrowing rates, with financial conditions improving in recent months and recent regulatory easing supporting credit availability for corporates.
The service sector continues to perform well, underpinned by strong business sentiment. The agricultural sector is benefiting from a strong monsoon, healthy progress of carriage sowing, which is also supporting the rural demand outlook. Household purchasing power is being lifted by income tax cuts announced in the budget and GST rate reductions. Early signs of this impact are visible as the festive season consumer demand reached a record INR 6 trillion, up from INR 4.25 trillion last year. However, geopolitical tensions, uncertainties around global trade policy, and volatility in global financial markets remain key downside risks. In this context, the RBI expected the FY 2026 growth to be 6.8%, with the second half expected to be slightly softer than the first, primarily due to tariff-related developments. Inflation is expected to remain benign at 2.6% for FY 2026. The monetary policy stance remains neutral, with RBI committed to supporting growth while maintaining price stability.
Moving on to the industry outlooks on slide 12 and 12 to 14. On slide 12, here you can see the LME price trends continue to be impacted by a mix of factors. Aluminum prices continue to be fundamentally supported by the global shift to electrification, EVs, infrastructure investments, and sustainability-linked demand. However, geopolitical uncertainty and investor sentiments are also playing a role in price resilience beyond just supply-demand fundamentals. In the first nine months of calendar year 2025, both global aluminum supply and demand grew by around 1% year-on-year. In China, aluminum production increased by 1% to approximately 32.5 million tons, supported by capacity additions in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, though partially offset by closures in Shandong. Consumption grew faster by 3% to 34 million tons, driven by sharp rise in solar installation and a 37% surge in new energy vehicle production.
However, the consumption sector remained weak with declining investments, resulting in a cumulative deficit of nearly 1.6 million tons in China. In the rest of the world, aluminum production rose marginally to 22.5 million tons, while consumption grew 1% to about 21 million tons. This demand was supported by India, Brazil, and Indonesia, but offset by weaker demand in Europe and North America. Segment-wise, packaging, construction, and consumer durables showed recovery, while transport remained subdued. This led to a surplus of roughly 1.5 million tons in the rest of the world. Consequently, the global aluminum market remained broadly balanced with China's deficit offset by the surplus in the rest of the world. Turning to aluminum demand in India, as shown in slide 13, Q2 FY 2026 demand is projected at 1.5 million tons, a 8% growth year-on-year.
This momentum is driven by strong performance in the electrical and solar sectors, along with robust growth in automotive supported by GST 2.0 reform. These factors continue to position India as a key driver of global aluminum demand. Turning to Indian copper industry on slide 14. In the domestic copper market, demand this quarter, including domestic supply, scrap imports, and imports excluding scrap, rose by 11% year-on-year, reaching 420 kt compared to 380 kt in the same period last year. This strong growth was driven by infrastructure investments, increased electrical application, and strong sectoral demand, particularly from white goods and winding wires. These trends underline copper's critical growth in India's industrial and energy transition. The annual benchmark TCRC, commonly referred to for the calendar year 2025, have now been finalized at $0.0545 per pound.
This represents a sharp 73% decline from the 2024 benchmark of $0.205 per pound, underscoring the significant supply-side pressures currently impacting the global copper concentrate market. Spot TCRCs have dropped to record lows, driven by intense competition and aggressive bidding from traders across the board. That said, we are beginning to see the early signs of stabilization. Spot smelter buying terms have now settled around - $0.10 per pound, which may indicate a potential floor in the current pricing environment. As we move forward, our focus remains on maintaining operational efficiency and navigating this market dynamic with agility and discipline. Let me now give you a glimpse of our quarterly consolidated and business segment-wise performance this quarter versus the same quarter of last year on slide 16. Our consolidated business segment EBITDA was up 6% year-on-year at INR 9,104 crore this quarter.
The consolidated net profit after tax was up 21% on a year-on-year basis at INR 4,741 crore this quarter. That underscores the resilience of our integrated business model. Novelis recorded shipments of 941 kt in Q2 FY2026, nearly flat compared to 945 kt in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $476 million, that is $506 per ton, was up nearly 3% year-on-year, excluding the tariff impact of $54 million. Novelis made strong progress towards fully mitigating the tariff impact in the second half of FY 2026. Back in April 2025, we had set an FY 2026 exit savings run rate target of $75 million, which we raised last quarter to $100 million. With another quarter of solid execution behind us, the run rate is now $125 million as we accelerate all cost efficiency initiatives.
Looking ahead, we remain committed to our three-year goal of permanently reducing our cost structure by $300 million FY 2028 exit. Additionally, scrap prices continue to move in a positive direction, supporting margin improvement. At Hindalco India business level, our business segment EBITDA was up 15% year-on-year at INR 5,419 crore this quarter. The net profit after tax was up 7% year-on-year at INR 3,059 crore. Coming to our business-wise performance this quarter, India upstream aluminum performance shipments were up 4% year-on-year, revenues were up 10%. Our quarterly EBITDA was up 22% year-on-year at INR 4,524 crore, backed by resilient performance across the value chain, fully aligned with our philosophy of operational excellence by design. This helped us deliver an EBITDA per ton of INR 1,521 in a monsoon quarter. EBITDA margins were at 45% this quarter and continue to be the best in the global industry.
On our hedging position for the third quarter of FY 2026, we are currently hedged at around 31% on commodity at around $2,700 per ton and 26% on the currency at INR 87.5 per dollar. This quarter too, the Indian downstream aluminum business delivered a record performance. Quarterly shipments were up 10% year-on-year at 113 kt. Aluminum downstream delivered an all-time quarterly high EBITDA of INR 261 crore, up by 69% year-on-year this quarter versus INR 154 crore in the prior period, driven by higher value additions on innovations and premiumization. The resultant EBITDA per ton stood at a record $265 a ton, higher by 49% on a year-on-year basis. On Hindalco's copper business performance this quarter, our overall metal shipments were at 113 kt, down 3% year-on-year, of which CCR volumes were at 97 kt, up 8% year-on-year.
Our quarterly copper EBITDA stood at INR 634 crore, down 24% year-on-year on account of lower TCRC, offset by better realization in byproducts and operational efficiencies. Coming to slide 19, in the first half of FY 2026, we delivered a robust cash generation of INR 8,762 crore, marking a strong 45% year-on-year growth, reflecting the strength of our operating model and disciplined execution. At the same time, we continue to invest in future growth, with capital expenditures rising 23% year-on-year to INR 11,330 crore, primarily directed towards capacity expansions across Novelis and India business. These investments are aligned with our capital allocation priorities to unlock shareholder value. To recap, our capital allocation priorities require maintaining the consolidated net leverage below 2x as we invest growth CapEx of $10 billion.
As of September end, consolidated net leverage at 1.23x was at 1.23x, and a strong track record of healthy ROC shows that we are progressing well in this journey. The revised capital cost of Bay Minette has been built in our $10 billion CapEx plan during FY 2026 to FY 2029, and we are confident to keep our consolidated net leverage below 2x. Details of the operational and financial performance in each of our business segments this quarter, compared to the corresponding period last year as well as previous quarters, are covered in further slides and annexed charts to this presentation. Now, let me conclude today's presentation with some key takeaways. At Novelis, our second quarter results underscore that the fundamental drivers of our business remain strong, even as we navigate some market softness and tariff advance.
Excluding the target tariff impact, adjusted EBITDA per ton came in at $505, exceeding the $500 mark. We are executing on our three-year $300 million structural cost reduction program targeting FY 2028 exit through organizational restructuring, manufacturing footprint optimization, and process enhancements, all aimed at driving long-term efficiency and margin improvement. With expectations to start the Oswego Hotmill next month, the outage impact is primarily a timing issue, a headwind this fiscal year that will largely be recovered next year. Meanwhile, our Bay Minette Greenfield Rolling and Recycling facility in the U.S. is progressing well, building a strong foundation for the future, as this industry needs more domestic capacity to meet growing customer demand for beverage packaging, automotive, and specialty aluminum products. The total project cost will be now in the around $5 billion. On the project IRR, I would like to reconfirm that this is about the cost of capital.
More importantly, we see upside potential, especially with the phase two of the project, which involves expanding coal mill capacity by additional 600 kt. This phase is highly lucrative, requiring substantially lower CapEx. The strategic rationale for building a large-scale rolling mill in the U.S. is stronger than ever before. Coming to the India business in FY 2026, we delivered global industry-leading aluminum upstream EBITDA per ton, reaffirming our position in the first decile of the global cost curve. This performance reflects our strong operational efficiency, cost discipline, and consistent execution. Our key upstream expansion projects like Chakla, Meenakshi, Bandha Coal Mines, Aditya Alumina Refinery, Aditya Aluminum Smelter Phase-1 , and the recently announced Phase-2 expansions, along with the copper smelter, are progressing well. On the downstream front, Hindalco reported its highest ever quarterly aluminum downstream EBITDA.
Aluminum downstream EBITDA grew at 69% year-on-year in Q2, supported by strong volumes and better product mix. Our copper business remains resilient with our e-waste and recycling project that remains on track for an FY 2027 recommissioning, reinforcing our commitment to sustainability-driven growth. Hindalco is future-ready, staying true to our core philosophy of engineering better futures. Our strategic focus remains clear, doubling down on capacity expansion across aluminum and copper upstream while driving a four-fold increase in downstream EBITDA by FY 2030 in India. At the same time, Novelis is advancing in its 3 by 30 strategy, building on three key priorities to deliver sustainable growth and profitability by 2030. These commitments position us strongly to capture emerging opportunities and create long-term sustainable value for our stakeholders. Thank you very much for your attention, and the forum is now open to any questions you may ask.
Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and then one on their touchstone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Hello. Yeah. Thank you for the chance. So my first question is a few clarifications. Am I audible? Hello?
Yeah, yes. Sumangal , go ahead.
Okay. Sorry. So when we say hedging 31% for 2026, now are we implying for the second half, say, 31% of the volume we will sell in the second half or it's, I mean, can you just explain that?
Yeah. Let me explain. Q3, it's 31% at $2,700. Q4, because of the recent LME run-up, we have been adding to our positions. We are now at 49% at $2,760. On top of our previous positions, as the LME has gone up to $2,900, we have been adding to our positions. Q3, we have had 31% at $2,700. Q4, we have now 49% at $2,760.
Okay. Sir, how is FY 2027? Have you started locking in 2027 volumes also?
Yes. We have started to lock in FY 2027. We currently have roughly 10% at $2,800.
Understood. Understood. Sir, my second question is on Novelis. Now, one clarification which we're not able to understand. What is our net impact on the tariffs on the earnings of Novelis? Assuming today's tariffs, today's scrap spreads, here, I'm not asking for any speculative future scenarios of tariff reversals or something, but just want to understand on today's scenario, adjusting for all the lead and lags which we kind of witness, what is the net impact?
Yeah. Dev, you want to take that?
Yes. So basically, we said that this quarter impact is $54 million. Remember, we had guided to $60 million net impact of tariffs at our last quarter earnings call. The second quarter came at $54 million. The first quarter was at $28 million. It was a part of the quarter impact. Now, we have already been telling you that we have a mitigation strategy in place with relocating more, getting access and relocating more manufacturing in the U.S. versus Canada. That will help us to continue mitigating more impact to the extent that towards the end of the year, towards the end of this fiscal, a very significant part of the mitigation would have happened, Sumangal. That is really what it is.
Dev, just to understand, are we factoring in the benefit of the scrap spreads in North America because of these tariffs in this net impact, or that scrap spreads is outside of the net impact?
The scrap spreads per se is outside of this impact. We do not factor that in. We do factor the benefit of the higher Midwest premium, both in terms of getting the arbitrage, and also there is a factor of scrap benefit just because of the elevated Midwest. That is the way we do it.
Okay. Understand. My next question is just one last one on overall our leverage and what is the peak level of debt we are estimating over the next two, three years at Hindalco console level. Just want to understand, given that we are seeing various cost overruns at Novelis, and till today, we have just spent around 50% of the Bay Minette project CapEx. At the same time, we are taking up more expansions in India. As per our budgeting estimates, I mean, what is the net level of debt we are looking at in terms of peak?
Sumangal, if you remember in April when we did the investor call, we committed that the console net debt to EBITDA will not cross 2x.
What we are doing now is, as we do any of the India CapEx announcements, we are taking the Bay Minette number of five is already in our calculation. All I can tell you is that we will not cross 2x in the next four years. We will make sure that the console net debt to EBITDA is kept below 2x. Our Indian CapEx is what we have announced already. That is already in our calculation. We will make sure that we will phase the CapEx so that we will, as on a console level, we will not cross 2x.
Understood. Just one accounting clarification. There is a lot of intersegment profit and unallocated income expense, where there is a lot of swing every quarter. I want to understand, are these non-cash items or cash items?
No. Sumangal, I guess you are talking about the India business, right?
Yeah, that's right.
India aluminum business. The only swing is when we sell metal from upstream to the downstream. That is the only thing that happens because just like Novelis has, when you sell upstream to downstream, the metal sometimes, if it does not get sold, then it will come up in that unallocable because it's in the inventory of the downstream. Whereas on the upstream side, we have to take it as a metal sold and book the profit. That's the only correction that we do in that annexure side for you to get that number right. Otherwise, there's not any other things going on there.
Got it. Got it. All right. Thanks and all the best.
Yeah. Thank you. Yeah.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Satyad eep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. Mr. Pai, just wanted to understand the thought process on the doubling down of aluminum smelter. On one side, you are hedging the second half exposure to increasing hedging, which sends a signal that you're cautious on this rally. On the other hand, you're doubling down on the smelter, which seems to suggest you're positive. Very conflicting message. I'm just trying to understand the thought process. Tied to that would be, when you're looking at expansion in India smelter, did you consider recycling at these spreads, the thought between recycling versus smelter in terms of expansion? Just on this expansion, just trying to understand the thought process.
Yeah. There's a lot of points you're covering. The first thing is the hedging part, if you remember, our strategy has not changed. Every year, we try to do about 20% as an insurance hedge for the next year.
Say roughly by December, January, we would like to be at 20% for FY 2027. That is an insurance hedge, and it has not changed. As we get closer quarter on quarter, if there is a run-up like we see now, then we add because we want to lock in Q3 and Q4 numbers. Now, the smelter expansion is a much longer-term strategy based on the EBITDA and the LME projection. We are fairly confident now that our cost curve will remain with our coal mines coming in at the first quartile. We are fairly confident that the LME will, at the lower end of the LME, and I have said this many times, is now going to be more like $2,200-$2,400. At those levels, when we budget, we can see a very good return. If LME continues to be strong, then it is very good.
The fact that we have coal and bauxite backward integrated makes us go into the smelter expansion. The third part is we are expanding downstream in India. As we expand that downstream, you see we already reached 600 kt of downstream capacity, and we are aiming towards an EBITDA per ton of $300 per ton and higher. All these put together gives our strategy of leveraging the upstream because of the integration strength and then expanding the downstream as well to take into account as the Indian economy grows, more manufacturing comes to India. A long answer, but it's a complex question you asked.
On between recycling and smelter in terms of capacity expansion?
Yeah. Recycling, we are also going into recycling. The 50 kt recycling on Aditya boundary has already started. We are committed to get the recycling volumes up to 100 kt in the next few years. The copper recycling plant will get commissioned next calendar year. Even in copper, we'll have 50 kt of recycling. We think that recycling and primary both will have a role to play going forward. Recycling is where India has to catch up a lot, and we are actually going to be leaders in both copper and aluminum recycling.
Thank you so much for that. Secondly, on the derisking of the project in the context of Novelis also, initially when the cost overrun happened, I mean, we assume that this is engineering. There was some, I think, floor or I'm not sure which one, something on the engineering design. That has come up as 50% of the cost inflation this time is again because of engineering. What has really happened that this happened the second time, the same reason? How do you look at derisking the India projects? I know that's maybe you're going into a Alabama was somewhat greenfield. This would be back in your own backyard. Just what really surprise happened the second time, which you already had figured out the first time? How do you derisk the India projects, large CapEx happening there?
Yeah. I'll Let Steve take the first part, and I'll take the second part. Steve, go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you, Satish, and thanks for the question. With the advancement of Bay Minette, we've made great progress over the past 12 months. At the site, we're about to commission the coal mill next quarter and then the rest of the equipment through the remainder of next year.
The strategic nature of this project in ensuring that we're ready to continue to expand as Satish talked about because of the situation in the U.S. being very significantly short of capacity for beverage packaging, for auto, and specialty products. With the tariff situation, this project becomes even more strategic. The elements of the increase from roughly four to around five is 50% of it is inflation. Standard inflation as it relates to some of the equipment and materials, but mainly around contract labor because of the significant industrial construction projects going on in the U.S. That's the big driver. We have recognized that there was some complexity as well associated with some parts of the facility that we were still finalizing up until just this quarter.
As we saw, that also increased the cost, and that was roughly probably 30%-40% of the additional increase. The remainder is ensuring that the site and plant are ready to be quickly expanded in the event that we are successful in some U.S. tariff relief with the administration, so that we can continue to catch the significant growth that we see over the next five years in the U.S. market.
Just wanted to check on this only. I know when the entire inflation happened in the first instance to $4.1 billion, we would have thought that the entire on the engineering side would have been derisked. Maybe taking the cost inflation bit out. Again, what is the complexity you saw in the final stages that the $4.1 billion would have already accounted for a lot because that was a time when you saw the engineering issues? What is something that even then you could not see and these issues cropped up at the latest? Just trying to understand especially that engineering issue complexity that happened the second time.
Yeah. As we talked a year and a half ago about the increase to the $4 billion number, we said we had a significant portion of engineering completed. We did not have 100% of engineering completed. As we continued to work towards getting that fully completed, that's where we saw some differences in quantity variances occurring, whether it be in amount of cement, amount of steel, and other materials, or amount of hours required from contract labor to construct the plant.
Now we are 100% complete in engineering, and we are confident in the $5 billion numbers we see here today.
Okay. Thank you so much. Maybe Satish on India. That's the final question.
Yeah. Let me take the India question now. I guess we have unfortunately learned many lessons along the road. We have set up a very strong project team and a project monitoring team for all the India projects that I am personally sort of reviewing regularly. Taking Steve's point, we have hired quite a few people on the civil electrical side who are looking at many of these engineering drawings and the conversion of these engineering drawings to release for construction type where the cost inflation or the numbers go up.
We are trying to get to a high degree of maturity on the conversion of engineering drawings to the release for construction for the India projects to not fall into the same issue. A lot of hiring of experienced people from the industry with civil, electrical, because it does not normally come from our equipment. A lot of these things come from the civil side. We are plugging the gap to make sure that the Indian projects do not have this issue.
Okay. Thank you so much .
Yeah.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, please restrict yourselves to two questions each per participant. You may rejoin the queue for follow-up questions. Our next question comes from the line of Amit Lahoti from Emkay. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on Novelis. With the implementation of tariffs in the U.S., clearly the CapEx intensity and the cost of doing business has gone up. We have 420,000 tons of volumes contracted for $1,000 margin. For the remaining 180,000 tons, can we seek higher margin to pass through the tariff and CapEx inflation?
The answer is yes, but I'll let Steve say the yes. Go ahead, Steve.
Yeah. No, it's a great question. Obviously, with the tight market in North America and the tariff regime that's been put on, especially with the 232 aluminum tariffs at 50%, there will be opportunities to see price increases on uncontracted and ultimately likely when those contracts come up for renewal as well. I think the overall price outlook in North America is to the upside.
Okay. My second question again on hedging. See, in a way, the market waits for a good cycle for a long time, and when it actually comes, the companies are found on the short side of it through hedging. How should one think about the investment case given that the upside is deliberately capped? How do we think about it?
No, I do not think that you should look at this as deliberately capped because the LME is very volatile. It can go up and down.
If you take a look at it, I think that when you hit 2,800 levels in the short term, it becomes, I think, for us, very important to lock in that because you see Q4 is a quarter where normally the Chinese shutdown happens because of New Year, and LME can come off a few hundred dollars, which is why we think we took that up in Q4 because Q4, we want to lock in the numbers to have a strong quarter. In the long term, as I repeat again, we do only 20%-25% and keep 75% open. In the short term, when we get very close, we try to catch the thing going up.
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Indrajit Agrawal with CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. First, Mr. Pai, if you can explain what is happening in the MJP premium market while LME is holding up much better, MJP has kind of collapsed. What exactly is driving this week?
You see the difference in the aluminum versus copper is that the regional issues get resolved in the regional premium. On one hand, MJP is low because of the tariffs, the Japanese, the Korean auto companies got impacted in Q2. The aluminum demand in Asia was low, especially East Asia. The MJP is sub-100. You switch to the U.S., because of the tariffs, the Midwest is running at $1,600-$1,700. The LME remains the price across the world the same. What you are seeing in MJP is a reflection of the aluminum demand. Now that South Korea and Japan have signed deals with the U.S., we are assuming that in Q3 and Q4, the MJP will start to go above 100 where it should normally be.
Sure. Second question is to Steve. If you can remind us again the beverage can sheet market in the U.S. What is the demand? What is the import like? Would there be enough demand for the additional 600 kt phase two that we are planning at Bay Minette?
Yes. Sure. The overall beverage packaging market globally is very strong. We see that growth at 3% to 4% over the next five years on a cash basis. In the U.S., it is extremely strong as well. We are starting from a base of being short can sheet in the U.S. market by somewhere between 400 kt-500 kt.
Alone, with the tariff situation, that will all get domesticated between Bay Minette and the new ADI mill as well. From there, we see strong growth and ability that as we get into 2030, the market will be short again, not just beverage packaging, but clearly in automotive as well and some specialty products. This mill would have the capability to serve all three of those. I hope that helps.
Yes, very helpful. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Pinakin from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you very much. My first question is that you mentioned in your opening comments that to do the CapEx, you would want to keep the net debt to EBITDA at 2x or below 2x. The India CapEx will be the one which you could get phased out. Just trying to understand that if over the next one to two years, profitability at Novelis does not improve for whatever reason, should we expect a delay in the India project commissioning timeline?
First, welcome back, Pinakin . Second, just to answer your question, roughly the projects that have already been announced will continue. The ones that we will look to phase are things that we have not yet taken a call on, such as the Mahan 360 kt smelter expansion. The ones that we have already announced are already booked into the projection to say, "We are comfortable, we'll stay below 2x."
Got it. My second question is, if we go to 2027 and where you have given the India project expansion schedule, can you give us a sense of India business CapEx here and after, including the $750 million of equity infusion that is to be done at Novelis?
Sorry, the question was in FY 2027, what is the CapEx?
2026, 2027, and 2028. How should we look at the CapEx given the projects that are committed to in India and the $750 million of equity infusion at Novelis?
Pinakin , let's take the CapEx part first. This year, we have said the CapEx is going to be around INR 8,500 crore. I think that next year, we are expecting around INR 11,000 crore. I think that is FY 2027. FY 2028, stay with me because I'll have to give you a number maybe next year.
year, about INR 8,500 crore, next year, about INR 11,000 crore is what we have put into our projection. The INR 750 crore that we would raise at the heavy mineral level for the equity infusion has also been put into our calculation when we talk about the consolidated net debt to EBITDA staying below 2x because anyway, the net debt to EBITDA is a consolidated number.
Got it. Got it. Thank you very much, sir.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the couple of questions. Sir, you indicated that our intent is to cover for the cost of capital at Novelis. Sir, what is the underlying assumption on the cost of capital that we are taking in? That's one. Second is, you did indicate about the second phase of expansion. Any timelines to that which will help us improve the return ratio profile? Third, related question, what's the rationale of infusing $750 million from India if one had to take into account the cost of debt and cost of equity?
Yeah. Maybe before we go to the Bay Minette cost of capital and IRR to Dev, the $750 million, we are going to raise as debt at the heavy mineral level and put it as equity into Novelis because a couple of things. I think that the strength of the Hindalco balance sheet means that we can raise money on the Hindalco side at a much more attractive cost. Number two, we don't want the net debt of EBITDA of Novelis to go too high. We have bond owners that we are worried about. We don't want the ratings of Novelis to get negatively impacted.
Fourthly, we believe that showing parental support at this time would be a strong positive for Novelis, which is why for a variety of reasons, we want to raise the debt at the Hindalco heavy minerals and put it as equity into Novelis. I'll let Dev now answer the cost of capital for Novelis and the Bay Minette project. Dev?
Yeah. Ritesh, typically, as a policy, we don't give out the WACC, but let me give you enough inputs to at least make you comfortable on the intent of your question. You know all the debt raises that we have done. I mean, our cost of debt in the U.S. is somewhere in the 5-handle, low 5-handle consolidated cost of debt. Okay? The point I'm making is that the cost of capital in the U.S. is very efficient. Now, I understand.
I mean, in the VAT, you'll have the cost of equity, but still, cost of capital is very reasonable. What we have told you is that even with the Bay Minette overrun, we will not be exactly on double-digit IRR, but a wee bit below double-digit IRR. I am just asserting the point that we have a safe margin versus the cost of capital when it comes to Bay Minette. I mean, as we have assessed the project cost of Bay Minette, we have also assessed opportunities. Learning from all the things that we have done on cost efficiency projects, we discovered that there was even more opportunity in Bay Minette for cost optimization. There are pricing opportunities, which was already alluded to earlier by Steve. All in all, we are discovering more efficiency opportunities even in phase one of Bay Minette.
It makes us feel comfortable that besides the strategic rationale, even the financial rationale of Bay Minette is fairly intact even with the first phase.
Sorry to harp on this, but again, I think when we indicate cost of debt closer to 5% or less than 5%, then probably we do not need even $1,000.
I said it is a 500. Yeah. Go ahead.
Yeah. Then we do not need the $1,000 EBITDA per ton number because it more than adequately covers up for the cost of capital. Because if I just put 60/40 debt equity, if I assume cost of equity at 11%, the number comes closer to 6.5%, assuming, say, 5% handle. How should we put the two variables into the equation? One is when we say covering up for the cost of capital and the number of $1,000.
Yeah. I mean, I do not know where you are going with this, but you are just on the point that the cost of capital is indeed very efficient, probably a little bit above the WACC that you have calculated. The point that we are saying is exactly what you are also getting to, that $1,000 and now with cost efficiencies that I spoke about, it is not just $1,000. It is decently above $1,000 with pricing and cost. Essentially, that is the whole point I am making, that there is enough spread between the WACC and the IRR that we are getting based upon all the updated assessments that we have done, Ritesh.
Sure. That is helpful. Just a small clarification to what Mr. Pai indicated. Raising debt at heavy minerals, I think the last bond issuance that we had at Novelis was at around 6.375% coupon. When you say something at Hindalco heavy minerals at attractive debt, what is the coupon, what are we hinting at? Because
It'll be lower than that. My treasury guy is waving his hand. Don't give a number, but it'll be lower than that.
That's great. Just a second question on Europe, probably Steve can take it up. Sir, how are we looking at the impact of CBAM in Europe? Specifically, if you could highlight our sourcing of scrap within Europe, and if you are sourcing any metal from outside Europe, what would it mean to the premiums and the underlying economics for the European operations? Thank you.
Dev, do you want to take that?
This is scrap. Yes. Yes.
Yeah. Go ahead.
I can surely talk about scrap. And we have enough scrap availability in Europe to be able to take care of all our needs. We do not depend upon imported scrap in Europe. In fact, as a policy, we are kind of encouraging the regulators to think about not letting scrap go out of Europe because there is some scrap leakage that happens. Europe is self-sufficient, and we have no concerns on that. We would like to sort of see if the policymakers would react positively to not letting scrap go out and let the scrap remain in Europe. That indirectly also addresses your CBAM question, I guess.
Sure. This is helpful. Thank you so much. Thank you.
Yes. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Somaiah V. from Avendus Spark . Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity, sir. First question from India business. On a QOQ basis, the EBITDA per ton increase of close to $40-$50 seems to be lower when compared to the LME increase. Could you just help us understand the bridge here, impact of cost of production or the reasonable premium that you are referring to earlier?
Look, the EBITDA per ton, you also have to take into account the alumina sales that we do where the indexes come down. That has got an impact. The second thing is Q2 coal costs. While they have been attractive, it's a monsoon quarter. Coal costs Q1-Q2, meaning sequentially, are higher. The cost of production in the Q2 level, I was expecting that question, really is about 3%-4% higher than Q1. When you do the math, we have had a positive write-back of the RPO obligations that we have put in.
If I take that out, the cost of production has been about 4% higher in this monsoon quarter. Alumina and the cost of coal going up is why the margins would not have been as high as just the straight LME going up. The other part, of course, is also the regional, meaning the India premium that we realized also has been slightly lower in Q2 versus Q1.
On that note, what is the expectation in terms of cost of production for the current quarter, Q3?
Q3 should be flattish to 1% is what we are assuming. Coal costs will come back, but CP coke prices have gone up a bit. We do have some planned shutdowns. It should be flat to 1% in Q3 versus Q2.
Thank you, sir. On Novelis, just want to understand the scraplet benefits in Q2. Obviously, from the industry pricing that we track, it seems to be a very sharp improvement in scrap spreads between Q1 and Q2. Scrap prices not going up to the levels of MWP increase. Is the full impact of these scrap spreads already shown up in Q2, or if there is a lag in time, what would be the drivers? If you could just help us understand the nature of the contracts, are contracts linked purely to LME as a percentage of LME, or is there an LME plus Midwest Premium angle? Some color on the scrap spread impact, or what one should expect in Q3 versus Q2?
Dev, you want to take that?
I can take that question. Yes. I will take that question. All right. One, I think you have captured it very well. I mean, we have not yet seen the full upside of the rising Midwest because it kept rising during our September quarter. There is some more benefit to come. Also, because of the fact that we have some contracted volumes from contracts that were locked in earlier, we were not able to take the full benefit of the falling spreads. There is, in short, more benefit to come. This is the wider point that I want to make to everybody who is listening. The underlying positivity in the business is becoming better. Unfortunately, we are having extraneous events, whether it is the customer facing a shutdown in Europe or Oswego fire and so on. When you take this out and you think about the underlying health of the business, things are really looking pretty positive. There is more to come. That is the short answer.
Now, just keep in mind also that while Midwest is doing very well and the scrap availability and spreads are benefiting, in the non-U.S. geographies, there has been some softening of premiums, particularly in Asia where MJP is very soft. Some of the benefits of the Midwest do get taken away, but net net, the positivity of Midwest takes over all the others, and it's a net positive, and there is more to come.
One clarification there. I just want to get this part a bit more clear. In terms of sourcing of contracts, I understand we would have had some long-term contracts in place where we would have had a higher scrap price compared to what probably spot is. If that is the case, you might let us know. That is one, which could lead to a lag in time. From getting the benefits of Midwest, it is more with the passing on to the end consumer. That could be more or less captured on a spot basis. I just want to understand how the lag impact on capturing the Midwest benefits comes into the equation.
Yeah. I think we are getting into two areas. One is the metal price lag, which is below EBITDA. That is basically in a rising premium market, you benefit because between the time you purchase and between the time you sell, the premium has gone up. That is what is metal price lag, and you would have already seen how strong the benefit from metal price lag is. At some point, things will go in the other direction and so on and so forth.
The point I'm making is that when Midwest or any premium goes up, as we buy as a percentage of the total aluminum cost, the dollar benefit expands, right? That dollar benefit expansion from Midwest is what I was alluding to earlier, that in a rising market, there is a bit of a lag in the expansion of the spreads. Yes. That lag will benefit us.
Sourcing contracts generally are tied as a percentage of LME, or is it as a percentage of LME plus Midwest or scrap?
Yeah. It is as a percentage of total BMC in the U.S., total LME plus Midwest.
Got it, sir. Thank you, sir.
Yeah. I mean, this is not as cut and dry as you're making it out to be. Even the availability, there are also demand-supply factors, and the availability situation in the U.S. has been getting better, and that also creates some softening outside of just the price impact. It is more complicated. Yeah, net net, I think you have captured what I am trying to tell you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Amit Kumar Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, all. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on alumina volumes that you booked in the quarter. Could you provide that number? Also, what is the outlook for the same in 2H?
I think the sale for the quarter was 199 kt in Q2. In Q3, it will be about 170 kt because we have a little bit of a shutdown planned in Utkal.
Okay. Okay. Then otherwise, the quarterly run rate can be taken as broadly 200 kt then, otherwise, except for the shutdown?
We normally sell roughly about 700 kt -800 kt in a year. It's not exactly 200 into 4, but it's, yeah, it's about 700 kt-800 kt.
Understood. Just quickly on the aluminum phase two expansion project that you just announced. Beyond this, which other sites will have scope for expansion for you?
See, we have two big new smelters, Aditya and Mahan. Both we had planned for 720 kt. Both are running at 360 kt. Aditya, we did the first 180 kt, is in progress. We announced the next 180 kt. The only remaining one for expansion is Mahan, which can go up by another 360 kt.
That, I believe, will be taken up once the Aditya project is getting through or towards the end of that?
We will look at balancing out cash flows, many other things that we will also look at. Just to be clear, we are starting the initial engineering, land preparations. All that, we will keep ready. It will just be a timing issue when we announce that.
Sure. Just to be very clear, we are no longer pegging or attaching the growth in aluminum capacity to renewable power as what we were doing in the past?
No. I think that we will continue our journey to try to increase as much renewable power that is practical and makes sense, but we are not going to tie it. That is fair to say.
Got it. Lastly, any update on the Chakla mine? I think the box cut, I think, was guided by the end of this calendar year earlier.
Yeah. I think that we should be doing the box cut somewhere around December, January. That is still on track. Both Bandha and Chakla box cuts are in this coming few months.
Great. Great to know that. Thanks. And that's all from me.
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tarang Agrawal from Old Bridge Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Hey, good evening. Three questions. One, how fungible are cash flows between Hindalco and Novelis? I mean, from a tax leakage standpoint and various FEMA regulation standpoint?
I think that this is to be taken fungibility tax things. We look at it in the way we do. The example we just gave you is we can raise debt and AV minerals and put it across. We have been doing return of capital from Novelis to Hindalco many times without any tax leakage. We have been doing so. I think that overall, this is something that we will continue to look at on a case-by-case basis.
Basically, I was coming from the point of view that given that these are two standalone businesses, but when you try to look at a consolidated EBITDA of less than 2x, it is essentially inferring that the fungibility is extremely strong. I just wanted to verify if that's really the case.
It is. I mean, we are demonstrating that in these times. You're right. We look at it as one consolidated. That's how the shareholder will look at it. Then depending on strength of the balance sheet and the market conditions, we will use for our financing reasons.
Got it. The second question, sir, is on the specialty alumina business. To the earlier participant's question where you essentially alluded that external alumina sales are in the ballpark of 700 kt-800 kt per annum, specialty capacity has been expanding. FY 2025, you entered at about 560 kt. Would it be fair to presume that 80% of those or 70% of those 800 kt are actually in the form of specialty alumina?
No, I think you're mixing two things. We have a specialty alumina business which is based out of Belgaum and Muri, where we sell about 400 kt-500 kt of specialty. What I was talking about was the excess metal-grade alumina from Utkal that we sell. These are two different things. The specialty alumina business out of Muri and Belgaum is, as you said, in the order of 500 kt. We are trying to use up all of Muri to do specialty, which will take some time.
Now, the one part on this whole specialty alumina business, it has been doing well, but still, many of these specialty aluminas are tied to the alumina API. As you know, from the $600-$700, it has dropped to $350. The pricing of the specialty alumina, some of our products, is also impacted by the alumina price coming down, which has had an impact in Q2.
Sorry to interrupt. We had lost the audio for a line. If you can just please repeat the question once again.
Yes. Yes. If alumina trades at about $350 per ton, typically, or $0.35 a kg, what would be the realizations in your broad basket of specialty alumina?
You cannot go broad basket. There are a lot of value-added props where the EBITDA per ton will be another INR 20,000 above the alumina prices.
It's better to look at the specialty alumina separately. We will start to separate that out sometime next year, just like we have done downstream alumina. The Utkal alumina is metal-grade alumina sold to smelters outside of ours, and that is sold straight at the alumina index price, like NALCO does.
Okay. Wonderful. Last, sir, when you're baking in the IRRs for the aluminum upstream expansion, both at Aditya and possibly at Mahan, eventually, given the volatility in LME prices and given the backward integration that the business is undertaking, is it fair to presume that a baseline through cycle of $1,000 per ton is a reasonable number to work with?
$1,000 is a good number to work with, but we get a reasonable return even slightly below that. The LME projections we take are roughly $2,500 LME when we do those calculations. Remember that $2,500 number is from FY 2028 onwards, not today, because those projects come in from FY 2028. We are assuming around $2,500 as the base case there.
Okay. Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to paucity of time, we will take that as our last question for today. If you have any further questions, please get in touch with the Hindalco investor relations team. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Pai for closing remarks.
Yeah. Thank you. I think that our integrated business model advantages are seen in a quarter like this where the India business has performed very well. Novelis, also on an underlying basis, had a very strong Q2 with an EBITDA per ton above $500.
I think that we have quite a lot of confidence that the Bay Minette project, when executed, is going to be a significant game changer for us in the U.S. market. I believe that the Indian expansion projects are on track and on budget. Overall, we think that the Hindalco business is quite poised over the next two years to become a high-performing business. I just wanted to add, we also believe that once the Bay Minette project is over, Novelis will turn cash positive as well, and the debt to EBITDA will start coming down. All these are on our mind, and we are quite conscious that the next year, our execution capabilities will be closely watched by you guys. Thank you very much for your attention.
Thank you. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.