Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Bharat Forge Limited Q2 FY25 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Amit Kalyani, Vice Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for your time in attending our call. I will now hand over the explanation part of the call to my colleagues, Kedar and Rajagopalan , and then I'll be happy to take your Q&A.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the conference call. Talking about standalone business, Q2 standalone performance was resilient given the underlying demand conditions. When the top line was flat at INR 2,247 crores, the margin expanded by 140 basis points to 28.8%, reflective of a favorable product mix. Europe was the weak link in otherwise strong quarter across commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle export business. The return ratios continue to inch higher with ROC net of cash at 20.5% from last year of 20%. Our leverage continues to go down while we repay our debt with our gross debt to equity ratio now at 0.46 times and 0.24 times on a net basis. A stronger balance sheet and cash on hand of almost INR 2,000 put us in an enviable position to tap newer opportunities as they arise, both at organic and inorganic front.
The traditional business won new orders of about INR 646 crores in H1. And during the same period, across the segments, we won orders of INR 2,200 crores, largely dominated by defense of almost INR 1,400 crores, followed by JS Auto, Aerospace, and the traditional business. Talking about the overseas business, the performance should be viewed in the background of seasonally weak quarter because of holiday season, weak demand in Europe and specific customer-related issues impacting European and North America utilization. In H1, European operations posted EBITDA of INR 75 crores, while US operations reduced their EBITDA loss to INR 45 crores. Talking about Indian operations, JS Auto continues to register strong operating performance in Q2, with revenue and margins both showing improvement, coupled with robust order wins of INR 173 crores in first half.
The most heartening aspect of the business is the diversification on the customer and product front, which has happened over the past two years with our automobile traditional business. Talking about defense, the group posted a revenue of INR 509 crores in Q2, registering a jump of an impressive 67% year over year. And with order wins of almost INR 1,400 crores in H1, the executable order book as of 30 September now stands at about INR 5,900 crores. This order book does not include any potential orders from the domestic or export market. The sequential drop in revenue is due to completion of orders on the export front. Important to understand that new orders will take time to convert into revenues and may create lumpiness in quarterly performance, while the business remains on a strong footing when viewed with a three- to five-year horizon.
Talking about the consolidated business for H1, on a YOY basis, the revenue grew by about 2% to INR 7,795 crores, while EBITDA grew by 16.8% to INR 1,449 crores, and PBT increased by 24.5% to INR 872 crores. EBITDA margins have also improved by 240 basis points to 18.6% in first half, while bulk of the improvement driven by Indian entities. Consolidated balance sheet continues to remain robust, with ROC of about 18% as of September 2024. The balance sheet continues to remain strong with ROC, ROE, and WC improving amidst the strong liquidity position. Now, we'll hand over to Mr. Amit Kalyani.
So I just want to give you a little high-level, let's say, thoughts about what I think about the current environment and going forward. I think the demand environment is challenging in Europe. In India, I'm hoping that with the stability in the government and the elections all behind us now, that the spending is starting. This is what we're hearing from people. And that should have a, let's say, follow-on effect on the CV market and hopefully on the agro market as well, and also on the passenger car industry. However, America is strong, and we expect it to remain strong next year as well. Also, our diversified revenue streams across geographies and sectors such as defense, industrial, aerospace, and casting, both aluminum and iron, should insulate us to a great extent because in many of these areas, we're growing our market share and increasing our total business level.
Most of this we're doing with capacity that's already in place. This is what we believe is going to drive our business for the remaining part of the year. In terms of order books and order wins, we have a strong order book across sectors, and we continue to win business. Just as Kedar mentioned, we have won INR 2,200 crores of business in the first half. INR 1,400 crores of that was defense. Almost INR 300 crores of that is aerospace. Put that into context, last year, our aerospace business was INR 240 crores. So it's more than the entire business we did last year. And this is an annualized kind of business that we will do going forward once it fully ramps up. So we expect to see the aerospace business grow quite substantially and become multiple times the size of its business than it is now.
We see multiple new customers, and we also see tremendous momentum of China Plus One and movement from other parts of the world into India and increased interest, substantially increased interest of U.S. customers, especially after the elections. We are feeling some pain in our European and Swedish operations. We are downsizing these operations. We have committed that we will fix these businesses in a short period of time. That is what we're working on. In terms of defense, I just want to mention one thing. Please don't look at quarterly revenues because these are not quarterly kind of businesses. Please look at it on a YOY basis. As we have mentioned, we are guided for a strong YOY growth, and we maintain that.
In terms of revenue opportunities, there are plenty of opportunities, but we are looking at opportunities which are synergistic, which are complementary, and where we can significantly add value and go from components to systems, get into new products, new sectors, new geographies, and also where we can expand the Make in India strategy that we have. So we will pursue this opportunity, but please remember, this is only in India. In terms of business verticals, I would expect the EV vertical to break the EBITDA break-even in the next two to three quarters. Because of the current slowdown and downturn in Europe, it is taking a little longer, but we are still working hard at it, and we are confident that we will get this under control as soon as possible. That's really all I wanted to say, except that our business is strong.
We keep winning a lot more business. We are increasing our market share with our strategic customers, and we continue to get into new sectors and geographies. And sorry, I forgot to mention that we have added three new customers in the first half of this year in the component business. So that's really all I wanted to say, and now we are happy to take your questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press * and 2. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Dinesh Gandhi from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. A couple of questions from my side. One is with respect to the defense business. So the revenues which we have seen so far or the order books which we have today, is it now without any gun orders, the export gun orders being largely delivered, or there is any pending delivery on the?
I'm sorry to tell you, it's very muffled, your sound. It's very unclear.
Is it better now?
Mr. Dinesh, could you come a bit close to your handset and speak?
Is it better now?
Yeah, yeah, much better.
Yeah, sorry. My question was on our defense business. So is the export gun order which we have got now being totally serviced, or there is anything pending on that side?
No, it's not fully serviced. It's still being delivered. We still have a large order pipeline. Our total order pipeline right now is about close to INR 6,000 crores.
Okay, sorry. Referring to the guns export order which we had got, I believe that was supposed to be serviced by end of 2025, if I'm not mistaken.
It is still being delivered.
Okay.
We have also got, as I mentioned, we have a total order book which is already signed of INR 6,000 crores.
Right, right. And secondly, there's been news articles about Bharat Forge being selected as L1 for ATAGS guns. So how should we think about ordering now? Are there any further steps left before ordering is done? And in that context, how do you see orders to come, and by when do you see orders to come?
Yeah, so there is a process that goes on, which is currently going on, and this potential order book that will come from this is not included in our existing order book.
Sure, sure. So do you expect it to come in this financial year, or will?
Definitely.
Okay. Secondly, with respect to the aerospace business, so how should we think about? You're talking of exponential growth from where we are, and there are clearly tailwinds there. But any sense on what was the revenue of aerospace in first half?
Yeah, one second. About INR 75 crores.
First half?
In the region of about INR 100 crores.
100 crores. Okay. Got it. And last question is on CapEx. So if I look at our CapEx.
You have a question on CapEx, please go ahead.
Yeah. So CapEx in first half at consolidated level was close to about INR 820 crores. How should we think about the color on CapEx and where all we are investing? Because its subsidiaries, it seems we are invested close to INR 500 crores in the first half. So can you talk about?
There's not much CapEx left in the subsidiaries. This was for our second phase in the U.S. There's hardly anything left there, maybe about INR 8-INR 10 million. The rest of it was all in India. I think in the second half in India, we have about a significantly lower CapEx.
Okay. So the second.
Sustenance CapEx .
Okay. The second phase of U.S. aluminum has already been invested, and we will see doubling of capacity or how it will be?
Double the capacity.
And this will be again by.
Probably next year.
Next year. Got it. Got it. Great. Thanks and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kapil Singh from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. My question was on defense orders. Can you throw some light on the products and maybe the geographies from where we have won these orders? And also, how do we calculate the order book? Because last quarter, it was about INR 5,400 crores. And we have executed INR 500 crores, and we have won INR 640 crores more orders. So just trying to understand the math around the order book.
Now, see, last quarter, it was INR 5,000 crores, INR 5,400 crores. In the first half, we have executed about INR 900 crores, and we have added INR 1,400 crores in the first half. Okay?
Understood. So because in the first quarter, we had mentioned that the order book was already INR 5,400 crores.
Yeah. Today, the order book is at about INR 6,000 crores.
Okay. So I mean, from INR 5,400 crores, if I add INR 640 crores for the new order bins, and I subtract INR 509 crores for the execution this quarter, the math is not adding up to INR 5,900 crores.
Okay. You can take that offline because when you're talking about a difference of 10%, I'm sure our guys will explain to you.
Sure, sir. And on the areas from which we have won the order, we thought.
Areas? I can talk about the products. It's a combination of vehicles, guns, and components.
Okay. Okay. The second question was on overseas. You talked about some weakness in Europe. And also, if you could give some perspective on Europe in particular, is there concern that things can drop further, or already they are, or what are the customers saying there, whether there is a further risk of drop?
I'm not hearing anything from customers on a long-term basis. The projections come on a monthly basis, and that's all. Everybody is saying that things are going to get better next month, next year. So I think next year, realistically, I think next year, things will probably improve.
What about the progress on margin improvement trajectory, how things are shaping up there?
Yeah. I think if our business was at the level which we had projected, our margins would have been significantly better, but obviously, we have to adjust our costs to make sure that even at this level, we achieve fairly decent margins. I think we are about a quarter or two away from getting to that level in Europe. On the aluminum side, we've made a lot of good progress, and I think from next year, we will have a much better situation. On the steel side, we have issues on the demand, and therefore, we are doing a lot of work on the cost side.
Okay. Like earlier, we were talking about reaching double-digit margins. So any visibility you have? Is there any compensation pending from the customers on costs?
I think whatever actions we have to take on the aluminum side are done, and that will all result in we'll see in the results for the next year. On the steel side, we have only a demand issue.
Okay. And sir, you were also hearing this discussion about tariffs coming up in the U.S. market. So how is the company and the customers thinking about it in terms of contingency planning?
First, everybody does a lot of speculation about it. So first, let the guy come into the White House. Let him make it concrete what is it that is going to happen. Then we'll have to react. But the point is, I think that India is going to be in a good position. I think that we have enough capacity and capability to deliver, and we should be well poised to take advantage of the opportunity this shows up.
Sure. Just lastly, Asia revenues also saw YoY decline. Any color there? What happened?
So we had a few countries where we were supplying where they have a slowdown right now. So those numbers are not very large. And there was no inventory correction happening there.
Okay. Okay. Thank you. I'll come back in the queue.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amyn Pirani from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yes. Thank you. You mentioned something on the India business, especially on the commercial vehicle side, also hopefully improving as government KPEX starts. So obviously, the first half has been quite tough on a weak base of last year as far as trucks are concerned. Right now, are the customers giving any sign of any production improvement in the monthly or quarterly order book, or is it more of an expectation for next year that you are hopeful?
See, the first half, you have to also consider that it's come back because it's been on the back of an election, and there is a cycle associated with it. There are some inventory factors associated with it and so on. So that has obviously seen a muted demand. The general belief is that the India growth story is still intact, and we should start seeing a better traction in terms of orders, including M&HCV. But it might take maybe one or two quarters for it to start being more visible as inventory and all of that disappears from the system. But overall, the outlook of most OEMs is reasonably positive. Not excessively positive, but positive.
Okay. That's helpful. I'll come back in. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that management is able to address questions from all participants, please limit yourself to two questions per participant. The next question is from the line of Pramod Amthe from InCred Research. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, Amit. So the first question is with regard to the subsidiary investments. I think you have indicated some investments in three of the subsidiaries. Can you elaborate the reason for the same?
So, one subsidiary is we have invested in the second phase of our CapEx in the U.S. Second is to invest in our EV business to set up some assets which will start generating revenue from next year.
There's one for a power train from your.
What? Power trading is for solar.
No, power train.
Power train. Sorry. That is the same thing. That is the EV.
Okay. And that is for what? Capacity enhancement for the product lines or?
So what are you talking about? Are you talking about enabling resolution or are you talking about what we have already invested?
No, along with some key management personnel change, you have given a table where we.
No, these are the enabling resolutions.
Right.
The investment will happen over a period of time. This is not a new investment, or we are not going to do any new projects outside India. This is largely India-based and some of the loan repayments which we are planning to do.
No, this is an enabling resolution for a future period, and what period for this is involved?
This is maybe up to next 12-18 months.
Okay. Thanks. And second one is with regard to defense. It's good to see the bulging order book on the defense side. Can you give some qualitative information in terms of what type of client feedback or engagements you are having which can result in better order inflow, visibility, or pipeline?
Sorry, in the defense business, we cannot talk about that level of detail. But we have significant engagement, and we are very confident that we will continue to grow our order book very substantially, and we expect our defense business to be one of the main drivers of our growth of the company going forward.
Excluding the domestic which is taking the time, any targets you are internally looking at in the order book build-up by end of 2025 or 2026?
The whole order book that we have right now is largely exports.
Right.
It's the largest exporter of defense equipment from India.
Right. But I mean, the challenge is for us to get some visibility because these are like one-on-one interactions.
So like I said, if you look at the defense business, please look at it as an annual business, not a quarter-to-quarter basis.
So hence, I was asking a medium term, any thoughts? How will you build an order book? What is the scale you will be able to reach?
Last year, we did about INR 1,300 crores.
Right.
So we have said that we have close to 40%-50% growth this year. We are hoping that we are able to keep a substantial level of growth even going forward next year.
Okay. Sure. Thanks a lot, guys.
Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Jain from Fairview Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. I have just one question. It's on the ATAGS order. So you indicated to an earlier caller that we expect to receive the order by the end of this financial year. So would you be able to quantify the size of the order that Bharat Forge will receive? Because there were some media reports that the current order size is about INR 7,000 crore, and we would be eligible for about 60% of the order. And a follow-up to that is that would it be reasonable to assume that it will contribute to revenue from Q1 of FY26? Thank you.
So everything you said before the Q126 is directionally correct.
Okay. So.
Now, there's a process. First, the order has to get. There's a negotiation process. When you get the order, contracting is done. Then you have to do FOPM supplies. And then you have to start bulk supplies once the FOPM is approved. Okay? So this whole process of approval after getting the full order takes about six to seven months. And then you can start supplies. So let's say about 12 months at the most.
Okay. Great. That's clear. That makes it clear. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chirag Shah from White Pine Investment Management Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thanks for the opportunity . Amit, on the defense side again, so the question is, while our export order book is building up very well, do you have any comment on the domestic side? Because the entire effort when we started originally was for Make in India and the effort that government was putting at that point of time. So if you can just give an update on how are you looking at it today and from a next 12- to 24-month perspective, at least on the order flow side, not necessarily revenue?
Let me answer it this way. I would expect our revenues in India from next year to grow at a faster rate than the revenues from export simply because we are starting from a smaller base, and eventually, I think domestic will become 30%-40% of our overall business.
Okay. And in domestic from next 12-24 months, what part of products is where you are seeing this revenue visibility? Because we have a number of products, right? Your approvals are you have approvals for two, three products or product lines that you would like that.
Sorry?
So which part of the product portfolio from India you are seeing the visibility of revenue?
Our products are basically land systems, which is artillery, vehicles, then we have on the naval side, we have naval guns. We have other systems that go into naval, and we have our entire unmanned systems. Okay? These are the three areas that we operate in, and this is where we expect the mature business is the artillery and the vehicle business, then the other business will grow, but our marine business is now at about 10%-15% of our overall revenue, and it will continue to be at this percentage of the overall revenue, and what is not there is now the unmanned systems, which will also pick up.
So from domestic perspective, from Indian government.
The naval system right now is all domestic.
All domestic.
What I'm saying is that is a business that will grow first domestically and then globally.
Okay. So naval business is the area where you are seeing opportunity for next 12-24 months.
Yes.
That is how I should look at it from India perspective.
Exactly. Exactly.
Okay. That's it. Thanks for this clarification. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Amit Kalyani for closing comments.
So ladies and gentlemen, thank you for attending our investor call. As I mentioned earlier, we are looking forward to the rest of the year and the coming year with optimism driven by our diversified business portfolio. And we see significant opportunities in our traditional businesses and some of our newer businesses, especially in industrial and in defense and the forging business because we see a lot of migration of demand from other geographies into India. So I think this will drive our medium to long-term growth and continue to deliver strong returns and improve our return ratios because for most of these businesses, we don't need significant CapEx. Thank you very much.
Thank you. On behalf of Bharat Forge, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.