Bharat Forge Limited (BOM:500493)
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Q4 23/24

May 8, 2024

Operator

Good day, and welcome to Bharat Forge Q4 and FY24 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Amit Kalyani, Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge Limited. Over to you, sir.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, this is Amit Kalyani. I have with us our teams from finance, investor relations, and global business. I will hand over to our CFO, Kedar, to give you an introduction, and then I will start.

Kedar Dixit
CFO, Bharat Forge

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Bharat Forge conference call. We had a strong performance in the quarter, with revenues of INR 2,329 crores, depicting a growth of about 17% compared to last year's same quarter. Standalone EBITDA for the quarter grew by 25% to INR 654 crore, translating into margin of 28.1%. PBT and PAT also grew by 48% and 59% respectively, to reach INR 526 crores at PBT- level and INR 390 crores at PAT- level. Similarly, performance for the financial year 2023-24 also saw a record revenue of INR 8,969 crores, with EBITDA of INR 2,469 crore, translating into EBITDA margin of 27.5%.

This is a 200 basis points expansion as compared to the last earlier year. The balance sheet continues to remain robust with the surplus funds. Net of long-term loans is now about INR 800 crore, and ROC net of cash was at 20%, which was also a significant improvement over earlier year. At consolidated level, quarter four revenue grew by 15% to INR 4,164 crore, and EBITDA grew by 36% to INR 653 crore. For the full year 2024, the consolidated revenue grew to INR 15,682 crore, representing a 21-point, 21.5% increase. EBITDA margins also improved by 260 basis points on a YoY basis to reach 16.4%.

During the year, the company secured new business worth almost INR 6,300 crore across all key businesses, including defense, traditional business, as well as the casting business. From a CapEx perspective, India operations incurred CapEx of about INR 800 crore. Overseas subsidiary incurred a CapEx of about $60 million in FY 2024. For the next year, the CapEx would be for overseas entities would be about $65 million, which is mainly towards the U.S., aluminum phase II and some maintenance CapEx in Europe. Talking about the overseas subsidiary, we are seeing operations in European Aluminum business have stabilized, and now we are working on getting the price increase from our customers. U.S. operations continue to show incremental improvement.

We had certain one-off costs in Q4, which has adversely affected the performance, but now again, we are, we should be back on track. In quarter four, European operations posted an EBITDA of INR 33 crore, while the U.S. operation posted a loss of, EBITDA loss of about INR 34 crore. The phase II CapEx in the U.S. is on track. The current utilization for Aluminum business in the U.S. is about 50%, and for Europe, it's about 75%. Now I will hand over the to Amit Kalyani.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. So I'd just like to take off from where Kedar stopped. To sum it up, FY 2024 has been a very strong year for BFL. Our Defense business has taken off in a very meaningful way. Our Industrial Casting business is now starting to show the performance that we believed it had the promise to do, and this is in the second year after our acquisition. We acquired this business in July 2022. The standalone business of Bharat Forge is doing well, given the market conditions and weakness is specific only to a certain segment of our Industrial business, which is largely oil and gas.

We have made initial breakthroughs in two new sunrise sectors, and we expect that these will become large growth sectors for us going forward, and this will ramp up from next year, but will become meaningful by about 2027. I want to credit our overall management team, and especially the team in finance, for managing our balance sheet extremely well. In spite of all the CapEx and investments that we have made in the last five years, our balance sheet is pristine, and it provides us with a lot of dry powder to take benefit of opportunities that may arise. I would now like to talk about some of our medium to long-term priorities. BFL has transitioned substantially over the last five to six years.

We have been able to cushion the impact of potential cyclicity from any one business sector or more with new initiatives like Defense, Industrial Casting, having a large business, accruing. In the future, the EV business also will provide such a growth opportunity and further accelerate the growth of the business. The Aerospace business is now on the cusp of a major takeoff and on a solid growth trajectory, which will continue to see momentum in the next year as well. JS Auto closed the FY 2024 with a revenue of INR 567 crore and EBITDA margin in Q4, crossing 16.5%.

This business will double over the next four years, more, more, probably double or more than double over the next four years, and we are working on a number of new initiatives around more value add addition, operational efficiencies, and capacity expansion, including NPD, which will translate into stronger numbers for both the bottom and the top line going forward. This business, just to tell you, has grown 30% YoY two years continuously and will continue to grow in a strong manner. On the overseas front, as Kedar mentioned, achieving profitability and stable operations of our Aluminum business remains topmost priority of the leadership. Our European Aluminum operations are already in the black, while the U.S. business will progress towards operational stability in the next two quarters.

We are very confident that for the full year of 2025, in the fourth quarter, we will see a extremely strong performance from our global subsidiaries. The Aluminum business continues to see robust, robust demand with growth driven entirely by drivetrain agnostic components. So we are not at any risk from any potential slowdown in passenger car EV, which is something that is a cloud hanging over a lot of supply base globally. The Defense and... the Defense business has also clocked a strong revenue of INR 1,561 crores this fiscal, with execution for all our export orders progressing on schedule. More than 80% of this revenue is export.

The Defense business will move entirely into its, into the 100% owned subsidiary, KSSL, in 2025, once their new facilities are fully commissioned and the licenses get transferred to those physical facilities. This will involve transfer of manpower and customer contracts from Bharat Forge to KSSL. While it will not affect the consolidated results, there will be some change in the standalone earnings as this transition plays out. Some of our investments, such as JSA, have borne fruits, while the progress on e-mobility is beginning to show a lot of promise and is moving in the right direction. FY 2025 will see a lot of progress in and growth in the e-mobility vertical as well.

I'm confident that, given the multiple growth engines, we should see strong growth for FY 2025 and, our ROC to incrementally keep growing and cross the 20%- mark in the next two years. I'm now happy to take your questions, and, me and our team here will, try to explain to the best of our abilities.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wish to ask a question, may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handset while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Pramod Kumar from UBS. Please go ahead.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Yeah, thanks a lot for the opportunity. Amit, my questions are on the Defense- side. You kind of highlighted in opening remark that 80% of the order book is now on exports. Is that number right? And that's for the outstanding INR 5,200 crore order backlog?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yes.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

So, Amit-

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

This does not include the ATAGS programs in India, which are yet to be concluded, which should happen shortly after the election process, so.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Yeah, exactly. So you preempted that, follow-up. Basically, that, we started the entire defense story with the ATAGS opportunity and the defense localization opportunity. But looking at the numbers, the way they are panning out, looks like export is turning out to be a pretty big opportunity than what, we thought initially. If you could just help us understand how, how, what is working in your favor on the export side, and also probably some bit of a color of the breakdown of the product categories within the defense, broader defense pool, and how should one look at the domestic export split once ATAGS comes in and as the business matures? So because export is something which is really coming in as a surprise.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

So look, let me answer it in a little different way. I think that globally, people have realized that defense spending is going to increase. We have products that are world-class and that are extremely competitive, and are able to supply a broad range of requirements of global customers. One thing we're consciously not doing is supplying into any conflict region, but we see tremendous opportunities for our products across the world, and these are products in the Artillery segment. In Artillery segments, we have three kinds of guns. We have towed guns, we have mounted guns, and we have ultralight guns, and we have altogether nine platforms already ready. So this is a huge range of guns which can be supplied to multiple different kinds of customers.

Then we have multiple vehicles, protected vehicles of different categories, different functions and utilities. So that is another category. Then we have a lot of spares and consumables, that's the third category. And then there are lots of other products which are under development in the unmanned vehicle area, which are both land, sea, and air, and that is another area of huge opportunity that we are pursuing. So, we see a global opportunity, and just to correct, just to reinforce what I'm saying, we are creating a capability to build initially over 100 guns per year and 550 vehicles a month.

But we can scale this up, at least on the gun- side, to probably almost five guns a week, kind of numbers or 200-250 guns per year, kind of a number, and close to 1,000 vehicles per year. So we see a very large opportunity, and we are taking some steps to, you know, let's say, capture this opportunity, both strategically and tactically.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Amit, these are all largely government-enabled, projects which, export orders which we are getting here. Is my understanding right, sir?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

So they are not. I would not say they are... What do you mean government-enabled?

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

As in, the government-to-government relationship is like the many other ones, right? Is it like, or you are scouting for orders globally on an independent basis?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

No. So, so we are also scouting for orders on our own, and we will do a lot of business development and, you know, new customer acquisition on our own also. But it's clear that the government is supporting this sector. And please remember that we have to get permission from the government before we export any weapon platform anywhere in the world.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

On the defense profitability, Amit, given that export is shaping up much better than what we probably thought, what does it do to the longer- term profitability and return metrics on the Defense business than what we have already shared as aspiration? Is there upside to that number?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I would focus on. You know, the way I would answer this question is that I think the returns on this business will be comparable to our, you know, our manufacturing business, at least what we see now. And as it grows, you know, let's see what happens. But I think ROCE is going to be extremely good. And it will also be a stabilizing factor because it will become a meaningful size of our business going forward and, you know, will provide a lot of shock absorption without any CapEx that we need to do.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Thanks a lot, Amit, and best of luck, sir. Thank you.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Arjun Khanna from Kotak Mahindra Asset Management. Please go ahead.

Arjun Khanna
Equity Research Analyst, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

Thank you, sir, for taking my question, and congratulations on a great set of numbers. Sir, just wanted to understand a little bit on this, executable order book. So if I look at the number in, the fourth quarter, the presentation, you have talked of, INR 5,192 crores, and if I look at, the second quarter, we have talked of INR 3,000 crores. So addition of at least, INR 2,200 crores, and obviously we have executed also in the, past, second half. So which are these major orders that we have? One, is there a follow-on order to the European, customer that we had, or are there-

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I don't want to get into individual customers and product segments.

Arjun Khanna
Equity Research Analyst, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

Sure.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

All I will say is that we have got orders from existing and new customers for existing and new products.

Arjun Khanna
Equity Research Analyst, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

Sure. Just wanted to understand in terms of platforms, any newer platforms or it's existing platforms which we have been selling?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

From all kinds of products, so both.

Arjun Khanna
Equity Research Analyst, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

Okay, sure. Secondly, in terms of the U.S. operations, I did understand from you, sir, that we are looking at further CapEx in the U.S. Given that, we have seen issues in this quarter and utilization levels are low, I just wanted to further understand that. And what is the outlook in terms of FY 2025 profitability?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

So look, we have customer orders and commitments that we have to meet for a certain number of parts, and that requires us to set up two phases, that is two lines in the U.S. Currently, our U.S. capacity utilization is not yet at 100%, but by next quarter or latest, by the quarter after that, we will be at 100% of phase I. And then in 2026, 2027, we will head to 100% of phase II as well. In this quarter, we had certain one-off costs due to weather and other one-time issues which were out of our control, and that is what has impacted, you know, the profitability and the numbers to a certain extent.

But I think, we have a handle on that, and we should see, you know, even the U.S. operations, with a positive EBITDA, you know, in quarter four, fairly profitable, you know, healthy, profitable EBITDA in quarter four.

Arjun Khanna
Equity Research Analyst, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

Sir, quarter four of FY 2025?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yes.

Arjun Khanna
Equity Research Analyst, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

Sure. Okay, if there is time, just one quick one. You mentioned, sir, in the comments that we would see the KSSL or the Defense business move out. So if you could just articulate that in terms of what does that mean in terms of profitability of the standalone?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I think, you know, you have to stop looking at standalone, you know, and it's all owned by BFL. So you have to look at it because, you know, for many strategic and, you know, other reasons, it's very important for us to house our Defense business in a separate vertical. That's what every, you know, global company, even Indian companies, have done. Unfortunately, in our case, the licenses were originally received in Bharat Forge, because we didn't have a large facility outside of here, and we were incubating this business. But now that the business is ramping up and, you know, we are seeing significant growth, we need to create standalone facilities which can give us the necessary, you know, capability, capacity, safety, security that a Defense business requires.

Arjun Khanna
Equity Research Analyst, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

Sure. On an earlier occasion, you had mentioned the ATAGS would come in, the order would come in standalone Bharat Forge, so that also would have shifted to KSSL?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, because that time there was only Bharat Forge. Now, you know, obviously everything is moving to KSSL, so the orders will also come into KSSL.

Arjun Khanna
Equity Research Analyst, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

Perfect. Understood.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah.

Arjun Khanna
Equity Research Analyst, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

Wishing you all the best, sir. Thank you.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Binay Singh from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Hi, team. Thanks for the opportunity, and, congratulations on good set of numbers. Good to see defense moving up. In the segmental data, just on the Defense- side again, we see that sequentially, our Defense revenues have gone up, but the PBIT has gone down. A little bit about what is driving that?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Well, this is all related to the product mix also. So you should look at more like a annual data rather than looking at quarter-to-quarter numbers.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We also had significant product development costs that we have charged off.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Okay, and secondly, like, you know, just I was comparing last call to this call, two points over there. One is that, you know, when we last spoke in mid-February, we were talking about moderation in growth in both domestic and export. The outlook today sounds a lot more positive. So could you comment a little bit about outside of Defense, is there any other change that you see in other businesses also, a pickup or so? And secondly, on CapEx, we talked about U.S. CapEx, if you could also share CapEx for India for FY 2025.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

So, good question. First of all, there is a tremendous amount of order flow taking place from, business moving to India from other geographies, including China and including Europe. Point number one. Point number two, at that point in time, we had, probably estimated that the impact of the Middle East crisis, you know, with that whole Red Sea thing going on and other things, could be significantly more than what it is, turned out to be. And thirdly, we have seen, I would say, a more, stronger outlook from our customers than what we had anticipated. So what you want?

Speaker 14

We are winning market share.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Please say!

Speaker 14

One of the factors that we see is, we are also winning market share within the existing available market. So this is both for existing products as well as new products in new areas. This is over competition in India. This is over competition globally. So we are seeing this as a very marked phenomenon in the last one and a half year.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

And team, when we talk about a better outlook from customers, are we also commenting on Auto, or is it largely Non-auto?

Speaker 14

It's a mix.

It's a mix. It's in Auto, CV and PV and Industrial is a very wide mix of everything that we are doing.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Thanks. Very helpful. If you could just share the CapEx number for India for FY 2025.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yes, so it would be about INR 500 crore.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Thanks, team.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Amyn Pirani from JP Morgan.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Yes, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question was, you know, Amit, you mentioned in your opening remarks the two sunrise sectors. So are you talking about Defense here and some one other sector, or-

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

No, no, no. Defense is now already becoming mainstream. These are two new sectors.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Yeah. Okay. Okay. And you are winning new order. Like, would you be able to clarify as to what exactly, which segments are we talking about?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

No, I don't want to clarify yet.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Okay. Okay. Secondly, on the European Aluminum business, now, you know, we have been talking about the fact that, you know, the pricing has been a problem. So, you know, as we look into next year, you've talked about the U.S. business as to how the profitability should look by fourth quarter of FY 2025. How should we think about the U.S., you know... Sorry, the European business as a whole, including Aluminum, because that has been a bit of a laggard in terms of margin trajectory.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I would say that the European Aluminum business will be profitable in 2025.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Both at a EBITDA and a PBT- level. Okay?

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

That will be a big change from this year.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Understood. Understood. And, you know, I know you didn't talk about Auto and Non-auto separately in the last question, but any broad, you know, idea as to how the U.S. truck market is looking for us? Are customers talking about a decline this year, or are they thinking of a flattish kind of a year?

Speaker 14

You know, you may have seen some press releases from companies like Tata, companies like Daimler in the last maybe three-four days, and everybody is talking about a reasonably- optimistic scenario, which does not mean necessarily growth, but-

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Mm-hmm.

Speaker 14

Stability, and that is what we are following. That is also what we are seeing in our order book.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Okay. Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Gunjan from Bank of America.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah, hi, team. Thanks for taking my questions. I just had the follow-up on the Overseas Subs and Defense again. On the Overseas Subs, on the U.S. operations, what is the one-off? Can you quantify that? And also, you know, in terms of, yes, your guidance by the end of the fiscal, we will turn profitable, could you also, like, little bit share what will be the key drivers? Because European operations, we have been at 75%, right? So, you know, what is the visibility on this improvement that we are guiding for next three-four quarters on the Overseas Subs?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

So demand is there. We have put in place operational improvement measures in Europe, which are already showing results. The U.S. plant was a greenfield plant, so, you know, there's a larger learning curve, but there also now we are clocking OEE about 75%-80%. So I think, the factors that are required for business to run well, which is having, you know, cost under control, productive production, running at, certain cycle time and certain OEE, and pricing, being, you know, reasonable, are all coming into place. And then, that is what is gonna make this, you know, happen.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Do you think that by, like, the overall operations put together, like we've been saying that, you know, over the midterm we look or we expect these margins to get to, let's say, double- digit is something that you've spoken about in past. Now, if I were to, like, sort of think about that trajectory, where do you think the entire overseas piece will be by exit of fiscal 2025?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Definitely in the double-digit, I would say very, very, yeah, I would say definitely double-digit.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, got it.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yes.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. The second question I had was on the Defense. Now, this clearly, you know, it's been surprising positively. Now, with the, the order book we have and ATAGS yet to come, how do you think the scale-up of revenues now? Because I think we were looking at somewhere around INR 2,500 crore in two years. Now that we have INR 5,000+ crore order book, one, what is the timeline for execution of this order book? And secondly, any change to the revenue scale-up guidance there?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Well, look, I think, the revenue scale-up going from 1,500 to 2,500, 2,600 is a very strong growth, especially because you're building a new plant, new facilities. And then after that, obviously, the growth can be even more steep.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

What is the timeline typically for execution, once you have, you know, this INR 5,200 crore, what would be the typical timeline for execution?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Some of it is three years, some of it is four years.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Last one, you know, mainly oil and gas, can you quantify what is the contribution now, or, you know, should we sort of think about any major drag still coming from oil and gas in the Industrial segment?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

It's about INR 300 crore right now. I think we expect this to go up a lot, a little bit this year because we have new products that we're developing which we haven't supplied before. But, you know, I think, so, you know, that, that is the vicinity in which we are right now. Obviously, it will grow. It'll grow quite substantially, but, it's not, you know... Our, our dependence on oil and gas in Industrial is not as strong, as much as it used to be in the past.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

INR 300 crore for the fiscal 2024, right?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Sorry, yeah, 2024.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, got it. Thank you so much. I'll join back.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Jinesh Gandhi from Ambit Capital.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Ambit Capital

Hi, Amit. Congrats on good performance. Quickly on the order book which we have for guns and for overall order book of over INR 6,000 crore, would this CapEx of INR 500 crore per annum run rate so be sustainable, or do you have to invest more in capacity given the opportunities which are coming up for you?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

So our capacity right now is adequate for fabrication and assembly. If we want to do certain more value additions or new product development go into that, we may have to do some more value additions, I mean, more investment, but currently I don't anticipate that.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Ambit Capital

Okay. Yeah, okay. So, the INR 5,000-odd crore defense order book can be made through the current capacity, both... Okay, got it. And secondly, while the Defense obviously is having overbearing influence on India Non-auto business, how is ex of Defense done in terms of growth? Because I believe there also things have been fairly good. Ex of Defense, India Non-auto business, how it has grown in a fourth quarter and how do you see it growing, going forward?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

So in Non-auto in India, we have business that goes into railways, that goes into construction, mining, agricultural, shipbuilding, energy, space, plenty of sectors.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Ambit Capital

So is that also seeing very good growth, for us?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, yeah, every sector is seeing growth.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Ambit Capital

Okay, okay. And lastly, on Aerospace, how it has scaled up now in FY 2024, I believe their payment also being started to reflect from FY 2024. And how do you see expect that to grow in next two, three years?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I expect in the next three-four years or two-three years or so, to double this business.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Ambit Capital

Now it would be what about INR 300- crore revenue?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, roughly.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Ambit Capital

Got it. Got it. Great. Thanks, and all the best.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Kapil Singh from Nomura. Please go ahead.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director, Nomura

Yeah, good afternoon, sir. On the Defense business, just wanted to check for the quarter, this KSSL revenue of INR 455 crore represents full Defense revenue, or if you could give an indication, what is the overall Defense revenue for the quarter?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, it's more or less the same revenue, because our booking entity or the invoicing entity is KSSL.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director, Nomura

Understood.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

It represents the overall Defense business.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director, Nomura

Understood. And sir, just one more question on consolidated CapEx. I see that this year we have done about INR 1,500 crore of CapEx. So, you know, should we expect a consolidated CapEx in the similar range next year?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

No, no, it will be lower than that.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director, Nomura

Ballpark, can you give an indicative range?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

About 1,000. Hello?

Kapil Singh
Executive Director, Nomura

Hello. Yeah, I said, ballpark, can you give an indication?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, about I would say INR 800 crore-INR 1,000 crore.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director, Nomura

Okay. And, could you give us an indication, like, how this INR 1,500 crore, what are the areas, broad areas like domestic, Overseas, Defense, how much of it has gone into which area?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I think, Kedar will take that offline and discuss with you.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director, Nomura

Sure, sir. Thanks. That's it from my side.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Raghunandan NL from Nuvama Research. Please go ahead.

Raghunandan NL
Director of Research, Nuvama Research

Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. On Defense- side, revenue to increase from INR 1,500 crore-INR 2,500 crore ex of ATAGS. So this INR 2,500 crore would be for FY 2025 or 2026?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I think so, INR 2,500 crores. We said it's going to grow. And, that was our original, what we had talked about, but it's gonna grow, you know, quite healthily. So what is the question?

Raghunandan NL
Director of Research, Nuvama Research

How do you see that INR 1,500 crore revenue growing over the next couple of years, given the visibility of order book?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

See, based on the business that we have, is what we have given the numbers. You know, INR 1,500 and INR 5,200 odd crores in between three-four or four years. And, you know, the big India orders are not yet included in this.

Raghunandan NL
Director of Research, Nuvama Research

Got it, sir. Sir, on the ATAGS, you indicated that, post-election, hopefully, you know, like, there should be further progress. How do you expect the implementation to happen for that sample order? Or do you think that by second half of FY 2025, you would commence, and over the next three years, it should be fulfilled?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Well, simply because I think India realizes that their equipment is old, and they don't have enough. And, with the kind of neighbors we have, I think, you know, it's imperative that we have, you know, to beef- up our borders.

Raghunandan NL
Director of Research, Nuvama Research

Got it, sir. And, on the domestic CV space, how do you see the outlook for the current year?

Speaker 14

We are expecting it to be flat as compared to last year.

Raghunandan NL
Director of Research, Nuvama Research

Got it, sir. Thank you very much. That's all from my side.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Pramod Amthe from InCred Capital . Please go ahead.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. I'd like to understand more about the speed at which defense is moving. Can you give some color in terms of how much of these are repeat orders? Who are the competitors here, and are these more of a negotiated orders? How does this business really work?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I can't do that in this forum at all. I mean, there's no chance I would share, discuss, Defense business so openly. First of all, it's Defense, okay? It's business that is bound by certain laws and rules, so I can't talk about it, you know, like I'm talking about supplying crankshafts or, you know, transmission components .

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Considering the order book which you disclosed, which is very interesting, is there a way to disclose your bid pipeline, which typically the ordering businesses have, in case if you can give those disclosures future, so that will help us to build this?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Our pipeline is huge. Significantly larger, much, much, much larger than the orders we have won.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. But what's the usual hit rate you get there, and how to understand this? Is it improving better versus what you used to have hit rates, or the customers are more confident now to give you repeat orders?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

No, I think customer confidence is there. We have a state-of-the-art plant. We have extremely good products, and we have great people. So people, once they come and visit us, there is confidence.... You know, there are a lot of complications about supplying into this business. Not a simple business.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Interesting.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

So that is why, you know, we are very cautious about who we do business with, how we do business, etc.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. And once you move to the new facility for KSSL, how does it change the capability or the speed of execution of these orders?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We will have single piece flow lines, and we will have a whole, you know, complete line-based manufacturing setup. So as I mentioned earlier, we can do significantly higher quantities with less costs, less variation, less, you know, set of changes than what we do today.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. But in spite of this, you will, you are saying in the initial phase, KSSL plant will have 100 guns per annum, scale, the first phase?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

That's assembly capacity.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Please remember that the ordnance, we can make one a day.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Sorry, I lost it. One a day?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

One per day is what we can make in terms of barrel, breech and other things.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay, at the new facility as you move in?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

No, here, here, here.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We will be doing assembly.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. Okay. Sure. Thanks, and all the best.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Mahesh Bendre, from LIC Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.

Mahesh Bendre
Fund Manager, LIC Mutual Fund

Hi, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity. Sir, standalone business is doing really well, but cumulative subsidiaries are still making losses, so will they turn positive in for FY 2025 or FY 2026 at PAT- level?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. Mr. Bendre, we discussed that. I think maybe you have, may have joined a little late, but we discussed this in detail, that Europe will be positive for the whole year, and the U.S. will turn positive in the second half of next, this year.

Mahesh Bendre
Fund Manager, LIC Mutual Fund

Sure, sure. And sir, last two quarters, the tonnage growth has been single-digit, but our average realizes are going up. In fact, last 13 quarters, our average realizes are going up. So will this continue? I mean, we are, I mean, looking at the volume or tonnage could not be a good idea?

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I think we have to stop looking at tonnage and value as a linked measure, because, you know, when you're supplying components, that is okay. But when you start supplying products, that one-to-one relationship goes away.

Mahesh Bendre
Fund Manager, LIC Mutual Fund

Sure. Sure, sir. Thank you so much.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question of the day. I now hand the call over to Mr. Amit Kalyani for closing comments. Over to you.

Amit Kalyani
Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

So, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining our con call today. I'd like to reiterate that we see a strong growth going forward for the company. We're firing on all cylinders. Some of the businesses are even moving faster than what we had anticipated, like what some of the co-commentary we heard on the Defense- side. We expect that a couple of the other businesses that were incubated over the last few years, such as Aerospace, Aerospace and Defense, and I ndustrial and EV, will also start ramping up over this year and next year, and become a meaningful contributor to our overall business. Once again, thank you for your time and interest in interacting with us and our team, and your interest in our company. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of Bharat -

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