Bharat Forge Limited (BOM:500493)
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At close: May 6, 2026
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Q4 21/22

May 16, 2022

Operator

Good day, and welcome to Bharat Forge Q4 FY 2022 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, participants' lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. If you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Amit Kalyani. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining our Q4 and full year analyst call. As usual, I'll take you through a short commentary and then open up for Q&A. I have with us members of our finance, investor relations, and management teams. Just to sum up the year, I think we had a strong finish to the year. At a standalone level, we witnessed about a 71% growth in revenues, more than doubling of the EBITDA and a 3x jump in PBT. EBITDA margins at 27% despite the inflationary pressures across all cost elements. We have strong balance sheet with a net debt equity of 0.2. We've won over INR 1,000 crores of new orders for Bharat Forge India.

This is both for Indian and domestic and export markets. We have also won over $150 million of orders for steel and aluminum forgings for U.S. operations, which will be made and supplied in the U.S. to U.S. customers. I'm happy to note and report that we have won our first order for power electronics for automotive application from our EV division and also aluminum high-pressure aluminum die-cast parts from prestigious OEMs. We've added 20% EBITDA margin at a consolidated level. We've crossed about INR 10,000 crore revenue, and our artillery gun has completed all trials by the user and passed with flying colors.

Just to look at the three months of the year, you know, we ended again by growing our top line by about 28% to INR 1,675 crore, given by a pickup in both domestic and export markets. EBITDA margin at 25.7%, optically depressed due to the pass-through effect of the steel price increase. If that were not there, this would be above 27%. PBT for the quarter was INR 352 crore, a growth of 40% over quarter four of 2021.

At a consolidated level, we expect 2022 to be a stronger year, driven both by top line growth and strong cash flows, ramping up of our U.S. operations, growth in our aluminum operations in Germany and significant growth starting to kick in for our industrial vertical. I will now be happy to take your questions and answers.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets when asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Binay Singh from Morgan Stanley.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Hi, team. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the order book. In the December quarter, we had called out that the EV order book is around $50 million. This order that we are talking about from the power electronics side is relevant to that. This is something we've got in the March quarter. With that understanding, what is the EV order book now out of this?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

This is an increase because this is something which we had done a product development and supplied it to the customer for testing and trial. This has now been approved, and it will go into series production.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Within the auto, what should be our EV order book now?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Sorry?

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Within the INR 100 crores number which you've given, what should be our EV percentage of the order book?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I would say probably about 50%. 50% out of this INR 1,000 crore in India and all of the German orders are out of the orders in the U.S. for aluminum, 80% are for EV and hybrid.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Right. Those are, I guess, casting parts that are going into.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. No, forgings. Those are forgings. Our total EV order book would be well in excess of, I would say INR 1,500 crore between forging, casting, and other parts. Between Germany, U.S., and India.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

What kind of execution timeline should we look at, like, or will it be executed over one year or over two years?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

This will ramp up this year, and it'll be running at full volume. These orders will be running at full volume in 2024, 2025. By then we anticipate significant more orders.

Binay Singh
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Okay. That's good to know.

Operator

We move to the next question from the line of [Hitesh Goel] from Nomura. Please go ahead.

Speaker 18

Yeah, good afternoon, sir. First I wanted to check what is the total order book that we have? I believe it's INR 1,000 crores per annum kind of order that we have done, right?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

When it fully ramps up, it will be INR 1,000 crores, yes.

Speaker 18

INR 1,000 crores per annum, right?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yes, yes.

Speaker 18

I wanted to check, like, what is the, because we will have orders from last year or maybe period before that also which are yet to go into production, right? I just wanted to check what is the order book which is yet to go into production.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I would say more than I[NR 1,000 crores] for sure. It would be closer to about INR 1,400-INR 1,500 crores.

Speaker 18

This INR 1,500 crore, roughly around INR 1,500 crore will be for the Indian operation, right?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yes.

Speaker 18

Yes.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

That is only on the automotive side.

Speaker 18

Okay. For the overseas operation?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Overseas, as we've mentioned right now, is $150 million in the U.S.

Speaker 18

Okay, got it. Sir, could you repeat how much is the EV order book? Also this, INR 1,000 crore to-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

About INR 500 crore and additionally what we have in the U.S. and Germany.

Speaker 18

This INR 500 crore is in which segment?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I won't break it down, but it's in the automotive segment. Automotive, electronics. I mean, automotive, EVs.

Speaker 18

No, I meant these are like, structural parts or.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

This is a variety of components. It goes across forgings, casting, power and control electronics, et cetera.

Speaker 18

Okay, okay. Sir, we also announced this [million order] for DC-DC converter from Indian OEM. This is which product category?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

This is power electronics.

Speaker 18

No, I meant the final product. Is it a similar, what kind of product is it?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No, it's a truck and bus application, commercial vehicle.

Speaker 18

Okay. Understood. Secondly, could you also share the outlook for various markets in terms of market size, particularly the global market? What do we see in terms of industry size for U.S. Class Eight and also for European market, for next two, three years? How much custom work are the OEMs having right now? Some color on that would be key.

Speaker 19

The U.S. and European commercial vehicle market, we see them at least as of now, fairly robust for this year and next year. That is the forecast. The order backlogs are quite healthy right now. Most of these guys have slots booked for the next 12-15 months, as well. As of today, all of this is fairly robust. As far as the supply chain disruption is concerned, I would say there are normal supply chain disruptions. There is nothing that is a very significant showstopper right now. There is a lot of volatility and there is a lot of, let me say, disruptions, if you will. They are able to manage and that is still supporting the production outflow.

Speaker 18

Do they require to raise the production significantly from current level? It's around 25,000, for example, for U.S. market. Do we need to go much higher than that or current levels are what we expect?

Speaker 19

They have maintained production at a stable level. It's fairly stable, you could call that.

Speaker 18

Okay, sir. I'll come back in the queue. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Puneet from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research and Deputy Head of Research, HSBC

Yeah, thank you so much. My first question is on- Hello?

Operator

Yes, sir. Please proceed.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research and Deputy Head of Research, HSBC

Yeah, great. Thank you so much for the opportunity. My question is if you are seeing any increased workflow or new orders coming on account of opportunities that may have arisen from the lack of supply chain in China or any, you know, extra movement that you're seeing in terms of export opportunities for your industrial products.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. For industrial, I think this is early days, but we are definitely seeing, let's say a new supply chain demand from India across sectors. That is, you know, our entire foray into castings, forgings, except heavier forgings with the acquisition of Baroda unit and as we complete the acquisition of JS Auto will allow us to cater to a much larger segment of the market and increase those companies' revenues manifold and grow our automotive, grow our industrial business as well.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research and Deputy Head of Research, HSBC

Can you talk about specific industrial products which are being asked?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No, I'm not going to talk about any specific industry because, you know, it's. This is competitive information and I don't want to share it.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research and Deputy Head of Research, HSBC

Understood.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

It will be across sectors.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research and Deputy Head of Research, HSBC

Okay. This is new in the last one year.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research and Deputy Head of Research, HSBC

Okay. That's all from my side. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Amyn Irani from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Hi, thanks for the opportunity. On the industrial business, I think you already answered partly the question. Which are the areas you mentioned which are 100% dependency on imports? Is it possible for you to highlight some, like broad areas where, you know, we can have a medium-term opportunity because of the-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

It's mainly all in capital goods, and replacement of imports. It's across sectors. It goes across many, many sectors, but it's largely all in capital goods.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

on the oil and gas side, you mentioned that, you know, you expect stable revenues going forward. Right now you are still below the peak that you used to have like four, five years ago?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, yeah. We are at, I would say two-thirds of the peak.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Yes.

Despite high oil prices, you are not seeing incremental investments going into that area, basically.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

There is incremental investment, but what has also happened is asset utilization, asset life cycle has gone up substantially.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Okay. Sometime back you had talked about trying to get into new products, you know, in terms of offshore. Is there any development on that side?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No, we have developed new products and got new orders also for new products for the fracking sector. They will all start slowly this year and then increase next year.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Not offshore.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Okay, not offshore. Okay. All right. Okay, great. Thanks. I'll come back in the day.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ronak Sarda from Systematix. Please go ahead.

Ronak Sarda
Equity Research in the Auto and Auto Ancillaries Sector, Systematix

Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. First question on the India CV demand. You know, how do you see the demand for current year? Especially, you know, given the inventory in the system is pretty low. How do you see the-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Quarter one is looking like it's back at peak volumes of 16-17.

Ronak Sarda
Equity Research in the Auto and Auto Ancillaries Sector, Systematix

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Close.

Very close. I mean, quarter one is at about 50,000 numbers.

Ronak Sarda
Equity Research in the Auto and Auto Ancillaries Sector, Systematix

Right. Right.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Sorry, 97,000 numbers. 97,000.

Ronak Sarda
Equity Research in the Auto and Auto Ancillaries Sector, Systematix

How do you see this trending, like, over the full year? I mean

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

You know, right now nobody

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

...

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Everybody's bullish. Right now people are bullish for Q2, also. You know.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I think we have to go quarter to quarter at a time.

Ronak Sarda
Equity Research in the Auto and Auto Ancillaries Sector, Systematix

Yeah. Right. Right.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

It ought to be strong because the CV market has been depressed for a very long time.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Right. We also were gaining, you know, we had new content, you know, supply starting in BS VI CV. Should we see the full impact of that as well? Or how? Or should you know our revenue growth will be largely linked to the production growth?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

See, whatever new products we have developed which are for BS VI, we have, you know, significant market share or 100% market share. Those are going well, and that will continue.

Ronak Sarda
Equity Research in the Auto and Auto Ancillaries Sector, Systematix

Gotcha.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

It will, you know, it will basically be in line with the market demand.

Ronak Sarda
Equity Research in the Auto and Auto Ancillaries Sector, Systematix

Right. Okay. also your thoughts on the EBITDA margin, you know, how should we look at the EBITDA margin, because commodity costs are increasing, at the same time we'll have, you know, operating leverage benefits coming through and also the various cost reduction measures you have taken over the last few years.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

The problem is that one can't comment on what the cost pressures et cetera right now. Energy cost is also going up. Freight cost is going up. I think on a, you know, overall basis, if we are able to maintain, you know, at this level between say 20% and around 26.5%.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

You know, it's a pretty good number.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Right. Right. Finally the question on the India industrial parts side. Last year we had a one-time revenue from the supplies of oxygen cylinders. How do you see the overall full year revenues from industrial division? Should we-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I think our industrial division revenues will be strong this year.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

This will be a continuing trend.

Amyn Pirani
Executive Director, JP Morgan

Right. We shouldn't see a major dip from what we did in the prior year.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No.

Ronak Sarda
Equity Research in the Auto and Auto Ancillaries Sector, Systematix

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Basudeb Banerjee from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Basudeb Banerjee
esearch Analyst in India Autos and Ancillaries, ICICI Securities

Thanks. Congrats, sir, for this set of numbers. Couple of things. One, if I look at your cash flows for last four years, you have done consolidated level in excess of INR 1,000 crore CapEx. Only FY 2020 was a free cash flow year. You have added U.S. capability, Nellore capability in between, revenues back to FY 2019 levels. What's the outlook for consolidated CapEx for the coming two years?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

We have repaid lots of loans. You are saying we haven't had free cash flow.

Basudeb Banerjee
esearch Analyst in India Autos and Ancillaries, ICICI Securities

Out of the last four years, sir, you could see a free cash flow only in FY 2020. Revenue is back to INR 10,000 crore +. How do you see free cash flow generation in coming years?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I don't agree with you.

Basudeb Banerjee
esearch Analyst in India Autos and Ancillaries, ICICI Securities

Should be the consolidated CapEx.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Free cash flow generation even this year, if you account for, you know, if you look at our debt repayment, we have repaid almost INR 250 crore of debt. Our loan has gone down. You know, yes, net of debt, there is, you know, free cash flow is not there, but we have the opportunity to raise more capital and, I mean, raise more debt and, you know, finance cash flow or finance our CapEx. I'm not concerned about that because our balance sheet is very, very thin. We expect between INR 300 crore-INR 350 crore CapEx this year and next year.

Basudeb Banerjee
esearch Analyst in India Autos and Ancillaries, ICICI Securities

At the consolidated level, sir, including project growth.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, yeah.

Basudeb Banerjee
esearch Analyst in India Autos and Ancillaries, ICICI Securities

maintenance repairs.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Except for acquisition.

Ronak Sarda
Equity Research in the Auto and Auto Ancillaries Sector, Systematix

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

We have announced an acquisition of JS Autocast, which when it gets completed, we will have to, you know, pay the money that will be due. Without the acquisition, our consolidated CapEx will be in the region of about INR 350 crores this year and next year.

Basudeb Banerjee
esearch Analyst in India Autos and Ancillaries, ICICI Securities

Second question, sir. As you rightly said that U.S. Truck Class 8 truck manufacturing capacity is roughly 35,000 per month, and order books are there giving you visibility of that much production. How to look at growth for Bharat Forge perspective? Like, what kind of customer vehicle addition, new customer addition amidst the static production outlook this year?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

There's lots of opportunity because as all the customers are moving towards electric mobility, they are going to reintegrate and de-emphasize in-house manufacturing. That is a very big opportunity for us, and our teams are already engaged with customers on those matters.

Basudeb Banerjee
esearch Analyst in India Autos and Ancillaries, ICICI Securities

Sure. Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pramod Amthe from InCred Capital. Please go ahead.

Pramod Amthe
Head Of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Yeah. Hi, Amit. Two questions. One is with regard to the international aluminum forging. What has been the experience in terms of ramp up? I think this quarter, in the financials, you indicate some revenues improve. Second, are there any advancements expected for aluminum forging?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Our aluminum forging ramp up is going as planned. There has been a few months of slowdown because of some of our customers being impacted by Ukraine, et cetera. We're using that time to do more product development for you know, future growth. We have now more business than we have capacity, so we will have to look at setting up additional capacity to take care of that demand.

Pramod Amthe
Head Of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

When you plan to look into it and announce as well, sir?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Sorry. We will announce that in the following next quarter.

Pramod Amthe
Head Of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Thanks. Second one is with regard to EV components. You have stated in the presentation some win in the EV components space in the domestic market, if I'm not wrong. How do you see with all these questions being raised on quality and concerns on safety, do you see an opportunity for a quality player like you to play a bigger role in EV components as compared to currently in EVs?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Absolutely. You're absolutely right, Pramod, and we definitely do see that opportunity. You know, we are also being cautious in, you know, over-committing on timeframe, et cetera, because we want to be sure that our products all go through the required tests, and we are 100% sure that they are going to meet the safety requirements. You know, the vehicle safety depends on all the system safety. The system here has one externality, which is the charging infrastructure and the voltage and, you know, the current and voltage drops that we face in India. These are not things that, you know, all over the world people are used to. In India, you have to, you know, be conscious that this is a serious issue and, design your product for that.

Pramod Amthe
Head Of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

You expect the ultimately OEM to bear it or you also have a role to play in terms of providing better than-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

In this product, the customer gives you a specification, and the actual design of the product is yours.

Pramod Amthe
Head Of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. Okay. Maybe that's it, sir. Thanks. All the best.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of [Rohan Nagpal from HDFC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 17

Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. The first question is on ATAGS. As you said, the army trials have been successful. Media reports indicate that, you know, the RFQ is expected in June for over INR 3,000 crore worth of orders. Can you talk about your expectations, opportunity size and capacity for this business?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I'll tell you that, you know, we expect that this whole ordering process should pick up steam and hopefully get completed in this financial year. In terms of capacity, I think in our first year we will have a capacity of about 100 [guns], and after that we will have an increase in our capacity to 200 a year.

Speaker 17

What has been the investment, sir?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Investment so far has been about INR 250 crore. You know, please remember, this is only the investment for the blank making. The machining, forging, you know, heat treatment, all that was already in place. Steel making, all that was already in place. We're leveraging the group's capabilities in that.

Speaker 17

Okay, thanks. On Tork Motorcycles, can you talk about how has been the initial vehicle demand and the opportunity on the component supplies?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

The vehicle demand has been pretty good. We have closed the order book at 1,000 orders because, again, you know, after reading all the issues with safety and fires and explosions and reverses of certain products, we initiated a full testing regimen, including outside agency, to make sure that, our product is completely robust and, will not have any of these issues. You know, I believe that it is better to take a little time and do it right. In terms of supply opportunities, we are very clear on what we know, what we will be making and supplying. Our plants are right now under construction.

Speaker 17

Thank you, sir. Lastly, sir, on Nellore, lightweighting plant, how much was the FY 2022 revenue, and what is the expectation on the production ramp up going forward?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Our revenue in 2022 was very small. I would say hardly INR 20-INR 30 crore. This will be a year of ramp up for us. We have received export orders for some marquee global customers. I think the real pickup in growth will happen in 2024.

Speaker 17

So we should-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

2023 we'll see growth, but 2024 will be the real growth year.

Speaker 17

We should see it reach, like, INR 200 crore kind of revenue target there?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, I think so.

Rohan Nagpal
Analyst, HDFC

And the-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I think we should be pretty close.

Speaker 17

Thank you, sir. Thank you so much. Welcome back with you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Pramod Kumar from UBS. Please go ahead.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Thanks a lot for the opportunity. Just my first question is related to exports. You did talk about some order wins and the fact that even now, some of the segments are two-thirds of the peak. And even on the export inter industrial side, if you can just share outlook on the fact that there is increasing concerns about recession fears in the developed markets. If you can just provide some context on where do we stand in terms of our order book, what kind of shape in what we are seeing and the incremental order win opportunity. Just to put things in perspective from a clear perspective whether exports can be expected double-digit growth on a sustainable basis.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. I'm gonna have my colleague, Subodh, answer that question. He's far more, let's say, active in the market.

Speaker 19

To answer your question, yes, we are expecting growth, whether it is double digits or more or less, that time will tell. We are definitely working for growth.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Okay, that's very helpful. If you can just provide some color as to what are the key areas where you are seeing some traction, particularly some areas which are not coming back on the expected lines in terms of, say, oil and gas. How is renewable doing? If you can just provide some more color.

Speaker 19

Yeah, yeah. See, we are targeting growth in all the segments we operate in, which is right from, you know, commercial vehicle, automotive, as well as industrial. We are putting together a strategy which also focuses on development of different products. Even if the market remains stagnant to a certain extent, you know, we see growth opportunities, and we are engaged in that process in any case. This includes certain products in the oil and gas side as well.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Sir, yeah. Related to that, with the transition to EVs, there was expectation that on the legacy parts there will be more consolidation of vendors, wherein large OEMs will move their legacy parts vendor supplies to larger consolidated vendors who have larger scale and basically reduce their investments on those parts. Are you seeing anything like that play out, on the global side, especially in markets like North America and Europe?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

While we are already seeing, you know, RFQs and proposals and, you know, discussions around that line. Right now everybody has been very caught up in addressing day-to-day opportunities and issues of supply chain stemming from all the, you know, macroeconomic and global issues that are happening. They are started, but you know, they're not picking up pace because people are just worried about maintaining their day-to-day supply chain and running their plants.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Okay. In a way, is it fair to tell you, Amit, that once these things stabilize and probably from a perspective, you should see some of these activities kind of contributing meaningfully to the top line?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Look, we haven't you know entered into any such agreements or contracts yet, so I don't know if 2024 it will happen. In terms of revenue recognition, I think directionally there's definitely a path that we are on.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Okay. Thanks a lot. A second one is on defense. I understand that availability of these like proving grounds or the areas where these guns are tried, are tested and all that, seems to be a handy bottleneck for defense players to do a lot of the trials basically. Is there any change there or we should-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No, no. That problem was solved during Mr. Parrikar's time itself.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

He was the one who opened up the government test ranges for private players to use.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

That happened almost four years ago. Before that, you know, we were not able to do testing.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Mm-hmm.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Because, you know, there are no private testing fields in India.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Okay. Outside of the artillery gun, which is the next capacity you're looking forward from this or the different-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Besides the artillery gun, we have vehicle programs, and we have multiple artillery guns, not just this one. We also have opportunities to export our products across the world.

Pramod Kumar
Executive Director, UBS

Fair enough. Thanks a lot, sir, and I wish you all the best. Thank you.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Jinesh Gandhi from Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Please go ahead.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

I mean, just want to clarify on this export order of $22 million. You mentioned even the steel forging would be made in U.S.?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

This is not export order. These are orders received by our subsidiary in the U.S. for steel and aluminum forgings, which will be made in the U.S. and supplied.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Okay. Would we need to put up a steel forging capacity there also, or we'll-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No, we are not going to put up forging capacity. We are going to do automation of our forging line and some amount of maintenance CapEx, which will allow us to debottleneck our facilities and produce and make them more productive.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Got it. Second question pertains to the European aluminum forging business. Can you talk about what was the utilization for the 30,000-ton capacity which we have in Europe, in fourth quarter and for the full year of 2022?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I would say our capacity utilization in Europe was about 40%.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

for the full year?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Okay. The ramp up has been, is it slower than expected just because of the geopolitical issues which your customers are facing or also there are-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

This was planned because we have to develop so many new products that because the product development is happening in Germany for both the U.S. and the German plants, therefore, we needed one extra year for product development.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Okay. Got it. Talking about the European operations, did we see a material impact of energy cost inflation in fourth quarter? Was that the key reason why our margins excluding EU, sorry, excluding U.S. aluminum-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

We do have some cost recoveries which are still pending, which will happen in the course of the next few months.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Coming to the Sanghvi Forging operations, so have you seen incremental utilization for-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Sanghvi for industrial.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Sorry, BFIT.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Technology and Solutions.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Yeah. We've seen any incremental utilization there?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. I think we will increase our sales there by at least 50% this year.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

In FY 2023, we should increase it by 50%. How did we close FY 2022?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

It was about INR 75-80 crore for the year. Oh, sorry, for nine months. Close to,

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

You know, INR 100-odd crores, around 100.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Right. Got it. Our India operations subsidiary due to interest and forex losses and they've widened in fourth quarter. Is it largely because of Sanghvi Forging or there are pressures in other operations as well?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No losses.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

It's defense and other things. It's basically defense.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Defense and EV, where we are investing.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Got it. I have few more questions. I'll call back and see you. Bye.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Bye.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

Thank you so much for the opportunity, sir. On the personal PV segment side, what kind of outperformance do you expect led by the order wins? What kind of growth is expected from this?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

This conferencing system is very unclear. I don't know what is happening. Very muffled voices are coming. It's very unclear to hear.

Operator

Mr. Mandlesha?

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

Yeah. Can you hear me?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. Can you just maybe, put the speakerphone off or something?

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

Yeah. I'll speak it loudly.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Uh.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

Is it fine, sir?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Clear nahi hai yaar. It's not very clear. Thoda dheere boliye. Haan, thoda dheere boliye.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

Is it better, sir?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. Okay.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

Yeah. Just on the PV segment, what kind of outperformance you expected over the industry growth, based on the orders, sir?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

PV segment, we will have a definite outperformance because we have won lots of business globally, Subodh.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

Yeah. Absolutely.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I think we should be able to grow our PV business, even if there is no change in the underlying market by at least 30% this year.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

This is across domestic and overseas?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No, I'm talking about from India.

Mukesh Saraf
Lead Analyst, Spark Capital

India.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Of course, in Germany also it will increase because of our aluminum forging business.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

Okay. The second question, sir, on aerospace revenues, sir, what kind of revenues we have seen in FY 2022, and what is the outlook for FY 2023, sir?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Aerospace and railways. Aerospace, again, we are seeing, I would say between 30% and 40% growth this year, and possibly, you know, 25%-30% growth year after next. Railway, there is not much growth because of the whole electrification, you know, the lack of diesel business.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

Just about this Kalyani M4 order, has that order started, sir?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, yeah.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

What kind of revenue was this quarter, sir?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I think it was about INR 20-25 crore this quarter.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Equity Research Analyst, Emkay Global

Oh, thank you so much, sir.

Operator

Thank you. A reminder to participants, anyone who wishes to ask a question, press star and one. Next question is from the line of Gunjan Prithyani from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for taking my questions. I just had two follow-ups. Firstly on the India industrial business. Just follow-ups on your India industrial business. Now, if you can share some color on the various segments, I mean, little bit of the mix, you know, where is it coming from, agri, aerospace, infrastructure, the way you spell it out for FY 2022. You know, when you're giving your comments, so clearly there's a lot of confidence on the growth from this segment. You know, which are the categories where you're seeing, you know, growth.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No, I mentioned earlier, this is competitive information, and I don't want to share it anymore. Because, you know, there are lots of people who can listen to what we say and, you know, I don't want to create a competition for myself. Let's just say that we're gonna grow this business. We have a good strategy. We have a new person who is heading this business in our company, and we have a very good plan.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. No worries. Only on JS Autoc ast now, if you can just give, you know, the timeline for the closure and, you know, what is the kind of.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

It will happen this quarter.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

It'll happen?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

This quarter.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Anything, if you want to give us a sense how that business should scale up in terms of revenues the way you put it for the Sanghvi?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

The way I see it is when we buy it'll be at about INR 380-INR 390 crores or so in top line. Our goal is that in five years we should be able to triple it.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

How much investment for that?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

We'll talk about that later. You asked me the revenue. I've given you the revenue target in terms of my own business.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, got it. Just the last bit from my side has been on the U.S. Class Eight trucks. Now, clearly the order, you know, the orders have been seeing significant decline, and as I understand it's because of the slots being closed. But are you sensing any increase in the cancellation or any change in outlook, you know, going by some of the other indicators, you know, that you see in the industry?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Not for the moment.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. You expect that it stays stable at least for the next 12, 15 months?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Correct. That is the expectation from us.

Gunjan Prithyani
Senior Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, got it. Thank you so much.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aniket Mhatre from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, would you be able to share the Sanghvi Forgings data, please?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Sanghvi Forgings? What is the name?

Speaker 19

It's a small number. It's about INR 55 crore of top line.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Okay.

Speaker 19

INR 70 crore top line.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Seventy?

Speaker 19

An EBITDA of about, this is the first year, about 15-16%. This is the first year, so I don't think.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

You know, I don't think we'll reveal the numbers. Actually, we didn't lose any money. We made a PBT and an EBITDA profit. It's actually a.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

No, I mean, frankly, sir, the reason for asking the question was to just decipher between, you know, we understand Sanghvi Forgings is a very profitable entity. But we still see losses in the India subs, so just trying to understand.

Speaker 19

This is nothing. This is nothing.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No, the subs, which are losing money, are in defense and EV.

Speaker 19

And also-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

You have costs. You know, when you go and do trial, there's a huge cost.

Yeah.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Yeah.

Speaker 19

What has happened is we had taken over Sanghvi from the 1st of July.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Correct.

Speaker 19

In the first quarter it was within, it was still under NCLT, and there were certain write-offs. I think the point that you need to look at is we have taken over, there are no losses, and we are poised for some very strong growth. That's been our.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Sure, understood, sir. When you're talking about 50% growth for FY 2023 for Sanghvi Forging, you're talking about an annualized number or from FY 2022, the nine-month level?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Annualized number.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Got it. Sir, just for clarification, this Kalyani M4 order and the ATAGS order, that will come under the India subs, right?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, yeah. It's in India, yeah.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

No, India subs is not in standalone.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No, that comes in, standalone.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Okay. Both of them come in standalone.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

When we had bid for those orders, we didn't have KSS then, so the orders were bid and won in BFL.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Sure. One other clarification. You just talked about very strong 50% growth in the PV business. That was for PV exports, right?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yes. Even on PV domestic and PV overall, we will have a strong growth because of lots of new order wins from new customers.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Sure, understood. Just one final thing. You said CV domestic is for OEMs are talking about very strong growth. Would we go back to the FY 2019-2023 cluster in your view, or as per customers' orders that you get?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Q1 is tracking at close to peak numbers.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

If it sustains, then yes, the answer is yes.

Aniket Mhatre
Research Analyst in Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, HDFC Securities

Great. Thank you, sir. Thanks for the opportunity.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Jinesh Gandhi from Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Please go ahead.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

For FY 2022 of this 21% growth, how much can you attribute it to current cost structure and how much is organic?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Well, you know what? I would suggest just talk to our finance team. They will come back to you on that.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Sure. Secondly, we have seen in quarter particularly, there is substantial increase in other income and interest costs. Is there any significant something which has happened, which will continue?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Explain, no? No, we have some disposal of assets.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Okay. On the interest cost?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Actual, like actual cash received.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Okay. Interest cost also has gone up quite materially to INR 40 crore.

Speaker 19

Question of the exchange, part of exchange now is because of the rupee appreciation.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Rupee. Okay. Got it. Most-

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Interest cost is INR 20 crore a quarter. I think that's the way to look at it, yeah. Everything else is coming from the exchange impact.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Got it. What was the INR realization for this quarter?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. INR 76.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

INR 76. I got it. Last question on our working capital. In FY 2022, on the standalone basis, we have seen roughly about INR 1,000 crore of outflow. Do you expect this to reverse or is this normal in the normal course of business?

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

No, I just have one request. You know, this is Amit Kalyani. I have to unfortunately head out. I have a flight to visit a customer. I have to leave. Anybody has any last question for me, I will take that. Otherwise, our finance team will continue and our business team will continue with you.

Speaker 19

Closing comments.

Amit Kalyani
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

I'll just, you know, like to thank you all for your participation and your interest in our company and your encouragement and questions. You know, please do keep in touch, and we will keep updating you on, you know, matters of, you know, importance with regards to investor relations and what, you know, communication in terms of new things at the company. I wish you all good health, and I leave you to our team here. Thank you very much.

Speaker 19

Yeah, go ahead, Jinesh. You had some question.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Yeah. It was on the working capital side. FY 2022, we had seen outflow close to INR 1,000 crore on standalone basis. Do you expect this to reverse, or is there no abnormality over here?

Speaker 19

The increase in the absolute number is on the basis of the volume. If you compare it to the sales, percentage to the sales, it's a kind of a flat [NWC]. It's the volume, in terms of absolute number. Our sales year-on-year have grown by almost 70%. Yeah. The increase in working capital is a reflection of that.

Jinesh Gandhi
Research Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Got it. Thanks. I'm done. Thank you.

Speaker 17

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. On behalf of Bharat Forge, this concludes this conference. We thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.

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