Bharat Forge Limited (BOM:500493)
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Q3 21/22

Feb 10, 2022

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Q3 FY 2022 earnings conference call of Bharat Forge. As a reminder, all participants' lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your telephone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Amit Kalyani. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Thank you, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our quarter three analyst conference call. I'd like to welcome all of you, and thank you for taking your time. As usual, I have with me our teams from sales and business development, finance, investor relations. Give you a brief update and then open up for Q and A. In quarter three the performance was as expected. In the last quarter, we had mentioned that we expect quarter three to be slower than quarter two, and therefore, total sales were flat compared to previous quarter. Exports were about 10% lower, while domestic grew by about 16%. The drop in export revenue was primarily due to the production cuts because of semiconductor related shortages in Class 8 trucks.

Our EBITDA margin at 25.2% against 28.3% is basically due to certain one-offs in Q2 and Q3. There is a detail of this in slide 10 of the update. Normalized EBITDA in Q3 would be about 26.4. It's a decline of 120 basis points sequentially. We have an exceptional item which includes a gain on the fair value of our investments in Tevva Motors and an exceptional expenditure of INR 99 million towards VRS. If you remember, at the beginning of the in 2020, we had taken a write down in our valuation of our investment in Tevva because of the slowdown that had happened due to COVID and other issues.

Tevva has successfully managed to weather the storm and raise substantial funds over the last 8-12 months and has been valued quite well by the markets, and they are now well on the path to you know taking their products to market. Therefore, these investments have been revalued as is required by the accounting standards. One highlight, however, is that the nine months I will say that I have never seen so much pressure and volatility in the markets. Huge demand on the passenger car side. Most of our global passenger car customers are sold out at least for next year and some even for year after next for many of their popular models.

At the same time, there is unprecedented cost increases on raw materials, on transportation and freight, on energy and constraints on raw material and labor shortages due to COVID in Western geographies. You have to take all these cost increases, inefficiencies into account and look at our margins and profitability against that lens. If we compare these numbers with, you know, previous numbers of, say, FY 2019, nine-month FY 2019, our EBITDA was 28.7% and for the nine months as against 27.7% for nine months of 2022, despite volumes being 20% lower. After the exceptional item of gain, the PAT for the quarter was INR 337.4 million for this quarter.

We've had a number of order wins recently, about just over $100 million, which includes about $50 million for EV platforms across passenger and commercial vehicles. These are small, but I think this is the beginning of much bigger opportunities. Our overseas operations have also registered a fairly decent performance with a revenue of almost INR 23.5 billion and an EBITDA of about 10.6%. The CapEx for aluminum forging facility in North Carolina has been completed, and the commercial production will start in the middle of the year. We expect this facility to ramp up over this year and next year start having meaningful revenues.

Between the two new aluminum facilities in Germany and in the U.S., we expect that this revenue will more than double over the next 2-3 years. Our balance sheet is in a very strong position as usual, with a net debt to equity of 0.07. This is post our investments of about INR 300 crore in the first nine months in EV, in U.S. aluminum project and in the acquisition of a company from NCLT in Baroda. Standalone business is doing fairly well operationally. We do have supply chain issues which persist in the global automotive industry, which is affecting the ability for many of our customers to produce and ship out vehicles.

Although the end demand from the market remains robust, we expect both the domestic and export markets to witness positive sales development in the second quarter of FY 2022 across all major sectors, barring the agri equipment sector. In the international business also we see strong demand, but there are severe and unprecedented inflationary cost pressures across most variable cost elements such as raw material, logistics and energy, which will take a toll on the profitability of the companies in the initial quarter till we get the recovery of these cost increases for which we are actively engaged with our customers. I would now like our head of sales and business development to talk about some of the key markets globally. Over to Subodh.

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Thanks, Amit. In continuation with the comments from Amit, we do see a overall robust market from a demand point of view. To illustrate that, from a commercial vehicle point of view, we see the U.S. market and the European market quite strong. As you know, most of production slots at the OEMs for 2022 have been filled out at least till late November, mid to late November, and possibly into early December as well. In India also we are seeing better growth as compared to the previous years. We are still away from the peak, but we are moving up in the right direction. Passenger cars in the world, the market is supposed to do better than what it did last year.

Hopefully, there is a view that the semiconductor crisis will start easing up in another six months or so. The overall expectation is there should be a stronger market as compared to last year, both in North America, Europe as well as in India. In the construction and mining side, just given the government stimulus in most markets, there is a strong demand seen, and I'm talking about both Europe, U.S. and of course, with the pragmatic budget, we expect the same in India as well. Oil and gas is doing better than what it was last year. You know, we play in the fracking business of the oil and gas side, and we see a significantly improved activity of the fracking side.

I must caution that currently everybody is focused on using the assets they have, but there is demand that's coming in for the for spares for that asset. New builds in this area are still weak overall, but that will improve as the year passes, is the impression. Overall, we expect the oil and gas market to remain stable, which is also supported by oil prices which are expected to remain stable in the $80s, mid-$80s in particular. In the renewable side of business, which we are also engaged with, overall we see a stable demand given the focus on environment and allied factors. We expect to see I would say strong growth pretty much in all geographies of the world in the renewable segment, particularly wind.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Okay. I think we've given you a brief overview, and I think we can now take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Thank you. The first question comes from the line of Kapil Singh with Nomura. Please go ahead.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

Hi. Good afternoon, sir. Firstly, I wanted to check your outlook on both domestic and export business, particularly on the truck side, because while demand is strong from a chip shortage perspective, are you seeing that ease in significantly in the current quarter or later on? What is the production outlook, if you have any color there? Same thing for India. I'll come to the second question.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Okay. Kapil, my colleague, Subodh, will answer this question.

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Kapil, comment for the next quarter and a few months thereafter, we see a reasonable level of demand from the customers in line with overall market projections for the year. This applies to both in India as well. There is definitely some ups and downs relative to supply chain issues for other parts. Nevertheless, given the high demand, OEMs are doing everything possible to maintain their build rate. That is the impression we have. We see a stable demand in these months.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

Okay. What about India? CV demand, is it looking up? Any outlook you would like to share there?

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

At this point, as compared to what happened in Q3, Q4 is definitely looking better. If you look at the sales of, you know, the retail sales of all the big four truck players in January, then it seems like they are moving in the right direction for growth in Q4. Unless something very crazy happens, we expect them to have growth over Q3 in Q4.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

Okay. We've seen pretty good traction in the non-auto segment. How much is oil and gas out of this?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

In this quarter, the oil and gas segment business was about INR 175 crores. I just want to highlight one thing, that last quarter and this quarter, we have had the impact of the aluminum cylinder supply, which is now complete.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

Right. Lastly, we have talked about this new order wins of $100 million.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Sorry, what is that?

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

We previously talked about the new order wins we had.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

In the nine months of about $100 million, right? Along with this, what is the outstanding order book that has to go into production as of today? When do these $100 million hit, you know, full production?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Our order book that has to go into production is, I would say well in excess of, on a consolidated basis, on an annual consolidated basis, I would say close to $400 million is yet to go into production on an annualized basis.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

Oh, that's pretty large number.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

The capacities are already in place.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

Okay. By when could we expect to hit that full product-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Full or half will ramp up by 2024, but it'll start from next year.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

Okay. Okay. Thank you. I'll come back in queue with you.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jinesh Gandhi with Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Hi. My question is on the order book. I mean this $50 million of EV platforms. Can you throw light on what kind of components is this pure electric components or this also includes-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

These are for pure electric vehicles and these are, you know, electric powertrain components.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Okay. Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We also have now started receiving orders on power electronics and control electronics for commercial vehicles.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Okay. This would be through Repower or on our own as well?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

No, on our own.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Oh, okay. That's interesting.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I mean, obviously Repower is an operating company, but.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Right.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Also on, stuff that we have developed in-house.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Right. That's good to hear that. Second question is on the aluminum forging business. This quarter would have been a very dramatic quarter because of the energy cost inflation. Would you throw light on how big was the impact of energy cost inflation in this quarter for BFAT?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. You know, actually the real increase will happen in the January to March quarter.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Because energy prices went up in December.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Okay. Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

In this quarter. Another thing that I'd like to mention.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Sorry.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Another thing is that please, bear in mind that a lot of geopolitical and other issues are creating energy cost increases in Europe right now.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Right. No, that's fair point.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

They are completely out of anyone's control, unfortunately.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Sure. Sure. The 30,000 ton capacity in Europe for aluminum forging is now fully operational, right? The 10,000 existing-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Fully operational, it's not fully utilized.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

What would be utilization in nine months?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I would say the current rate of utilization would be about 10,000-12,000 tons.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Oh, 10-12.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I would say 50%.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Okay. This will also fully ramp up next year?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Next year and year after next.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Okay. Any word on?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

This ramp up has got slowed down because of the chip shortage and other supply chain issues.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Sure.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Because overall vehicle production has come down.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

True. That's a fair point. Any word on the second phase expansion in the U.S., given that capacity is also fully sold out?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. I will be in the U.S. very soon and we will by March end take a call on the second phase.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Got it. Lastly, what will be the impact of steel and other commodity pass through in this quarter, benefits on the revenue side?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

The total impact, this quarter would be, just one second. You're talking about compared to last year, right?

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Compared to last year or the second quarter.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Compared to second quarter, it's about INR 30 crore, between INR 30 crore and INR 35 crore.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Okay. This is helpful. Thanks. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Pramod Amthe with InCred Capital. Please go ahead.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Yeah. Hi, Amit. In this unprecedented inflationary times, both at the commodity and the processing cost, how does your cost escalation terms work, and do they break down or what's the thought how to recover it?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah. Again, I will let Subodh answer this. You know, we have different, let's say, clauses and agreements with different customers. Some are on a monthly basis, some are on a quarterly basis, but Subodh will explain.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Sure.

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Pramod, the steel. Let's say for us, the major part of the inflation has been steel and, you know, as we have talked before, all of it has always been recovered through a mechanism. Let me say that mechanism continues as far as steel is concerned. There is a little more complication this time because of higher steel inflation. In principle, we have a mechanism to address that. Because of the unprecedented changes in energy and logistics, we are also working with our customers to set up mechanisms for these factors. We are insisting on a full pass-through of this inflation, and accordingly, those mechanisms are being addressed so that they can be reviewed on a quarterly basis.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Sure. Thanks. Second is with regard to the sales traction. You guys alluded that your sales is still 20% below the FY 2019 levels. If I understand rightly, the large part of the shortfall seems to be on the industrial side, if I'm not wrong.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Commercial.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Commercial-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

It's actually on both. It's both on industrial and commercial. Oil and gas activity is not at the previous levels, neither is, you know, the construction and mining and stuff yet. Obviously the automotive is all down because of the chip related activity. Everything is down.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

In terms of directionally, it looks like the.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Look at NAFTA sales. In FY 2019 it was 475,000.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Yeah.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

This year it is going to be 275,000.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Yeah. At least we get some grip in terms of numbers, volume, where they are and how that can pan out in the future. If I had to look at the industrial side, are you getting any bigger confidence now in the sense that, at least in one and a half years, two years, you will cross that historical peaks?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

No, I'll tell you why I do have the confidence that we will do it is because we have now entered a lot of new sectors, especially the renewable energy sector in this area, that will allow us to grow our business, and de-risk that business much more.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. This is through the acquisition which you made.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

No, not only through acquisition.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Also, or, you know, organically.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

No, I said the production capacity which you acquired from that, entity. That is giving that comfort or-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Yeah.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

That actually will be a further growth even beyond that. Whatever we are talking about will only take up 20% of their capacity. You know, if you look at their sales, they are running at INR 20 odd crores a quarter, and they have the same facility as we do. They are doing 10% of what we do. Obviously they have huge capacity still available.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. The last question is with regard to your investments into the EV space. You have done into the two-wheeler space and also into the Tevva. You yourself have gone through the cycle of writing it down and participating at the higher valuation. How are you looking at this space, especially where the valuations are going through the roof? You guys will continue-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We are not participating at a higher valuation. What has happened is, Tevva has raised money at a significantly higher valuation.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Right.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Therefore, our investment in that has got revalued to the value at which they have raised fresh capital.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

You are maintaining the stake there or you are diluting?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We've not put in any fresh money. Okay?

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. Would you-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Our stake has come down in percentage terms, but in value terms, it has significantly gone up.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Is that because of some discomfort on valuation or incremental capital allocation you don't-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I don't want to put in unlimited amounts of money in these businesses. The purpose of putting money in these businesses is to learn technology and bring those products into Indian market when they are applicable to our markets. That is what we are doing.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. The other venture is two-wheelers, which also seems to be at an inflection point now, the way the product has-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

They have now already launched their first two products, and they have received only from Pune, where they have launched a very good response. They will be producing and launching their vehicles by April, they will start supplying their vehicles.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

There you have a decent chunk of stake, right?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

More than 50%.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

In case for execution they need a funding, you guys will be participating there or how to look at?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, yeah. We are fully working with them in making sure that they have everything they need to go to market. In fact, their plant is already almost constructed and all their equipment is mostly in and going in for trial production.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. In that sense, any commitment in terms of next 1-2 years, how much investments you may have to put into this? Tevva, you said you will not be going in, but at least for Tork or others.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We are going to not make significant investments in company as such, but we will make significant investments in making components, systems and subsystems.

Pramod Amthe
Head of Institutional Equity Research, InCred Capital

Okay. Sure. Got it. Thanks, and all the best.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ashutosh Tiwari with Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

Yeah, sir. We talked about that, the overseas CVs will pick up, but can it go back to, say, 2Q or 1Q levels in Q4? How do you see trajectory over there?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

He's saying, can Q4 overseas CV go back to second quarter numbers, so higher than this.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

Yeah, we expect them to go up.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We expect them to be higher than Q3 for sure.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

Okay. The visibility of going towards 1Q or 2Q still is not there.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

One second. It's a 20%. I think it'll be pretty close to Q2.

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Close. It'll be close to Q2.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I think it should be pretty close to Q2.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

We see strong traction over there. Secondly, like, India Industrials, if I look at capex of that, cylinder, oxygen cylinder, it was around INR 226 crore. How do you see that ramping up in the subsequent quarters, 4Q and Q1? We had talked about some Kalyani Forge order earlier, defense order, which was supposed to start delivery from fourth quarter. How do you see the ramp-up in that going ahead?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

The vehicle orders will start getting delivered in small amount in quarter three, then it'll roll in. I mean, small amount in quarter four and then in the first half of next year. We are getting more and more orders, so I think this will be a continuing business.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

Overall Industrials India will see, I mean, a strong growth going ahead beyond this INR 226 crore?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Okay. I think there's a fair chance to say that we can grow this to a, you know, INR 300-400 crore business in the next two years per quarter.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

India Industrial.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

Sure. Okay. Thanks a lot. Bye.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Hitesh Goel with CLSA. Please go ahead.

Hitesh Goel
Executive Director, CLSA

Thank you for taking my question, sir. Can you, sir, break down the you know, the industrial business in terms of you've talked about the oil and gas business and exports, but how much is coming from the construction equipment, renewable energy, so that we get some sense?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Renewable energy right now is very, very small. Okay? I would say oil and gas is about 50% and, you know, about 10% is aerospace and defense, and then 40% is, other industrial, which is construction, mining, et cetera.

Hitesh Goel
Executive Director, CLSA

This is in exports, right? In the domestic-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

In domestic, I would say, out of the INR 220-odd crores, more than one-third is construction and mining. Agriculture is about 15%. Aerospace is about 10%. You have assorted other sectors which are about 30%.

Hitesh Goel
Executive Director, CLSA

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jeetu Panjabi with EM Capital Advisors. Please go ahead.

Jeetu Panjabi
CEO at EM Investco Capital Advisors, EM Capital Advisors

Hi, Amit. Thank you for this. A couple of questions. One, can you take us through your outlook over the next 18 months on key demand segments, for example, U.S. trucking, European trucking and industrials or whatever. Just give us how you're thinking.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Jeetu, you're a bigger expert on the U.S. CV market than I am. All I can tell you is that there is extremely strong demand for transportation being driven by this whole logistical boom in, you know, the delivery services. Secondly, the infrastructure spending that is starting to take place in the U.S. or should be starting to take place in the U.S., whether it is replacing bridges, roads, you know, airports, whatever. In that background, I would say that the U.S. is definitely going to see a fairly sustained and strong growth in transportation demand at least for the next 4-5 years.

Jeetu Panjabi
CEO at EM Investco Capital Advisors, EM Capital Advisors

Okay. What about how do you look at India? Is India going to catch up?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I think India is going to be on a 10-year growth trajectory because the kind of infrastructure spending that is being talked about and unlocked now is going to create a secular growth trend for at least the next 8-10 years.

Jeetu Panjabi
CEO at EM Investco Capital Advisors, EM Capital Advisors

Okay. The converse question is what are you less excited about in the backdrop of what you just spoke?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Look, I think, you know, the one thing which worries me is cost and inflation, because in a backdrop where demand isn't, or let's say production isn't at the highest level, costs are escalating for all kinds of, let's say, extraneous reasons. Then I am a little worried about Europe, because Europe is very sensitive and dependent on a lot of geopolitical issues, whether they affect, you know, raw material supplies, energy supplies, supply chain issues, et cetera. I also expect that a lot of suppliers will go bankrupt in Europe in the next six to 12 months.

Jeetu Panjabi
CEO at EM Investco Capital Advisors, EM Capital Advisors

Mm-hmm.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

It is that. That is not a problem for us. What happens is that it disrupts the overall entire supply chain.

Jeetu Panjabi
CEO at EM Investco Capital Advisors, EM Capital Advisors

Right. Actually one final one. How do you think of capital allocation in this context? Are you happy to do-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We are going to only allocate capital on growth and not on any of our existing business and product unless we have long-term take or pay or business assurance. We have created a strategy, you know, where we want to be the last man standing in our business for however long these core products are made. There we are working on extreme focus on reduction of cost and efficiency and better technology in order to get a larger share of that market as it progresses.

Jeetu Panjabi
CEO at EM Investco Capital Advisors, EM Capital Advisors

Okay. Fantastic. Good wishes, as always.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Thank you so much.

Jeetu Panjabi
CEO at EM Investco Capital Advisors, EM Capital Advisors

Thank you. Bye.

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Bye.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jinesh Gandhi with Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Hi. Just wanted to check on the Tork site. What's the capacity are they starting with, and any sense on the orders which they've got on hand?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

I think their first initial capacity they're setting up is gonna be about 50,000 pieces, 50,000 numbers of two-wheelers and an equal number of three-wheeler powertrains. I think just from Pune, they have received over 1,000 orders, and they stopped after that. They didn't take any more orders.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Okay. Are you helping them in with respect to ramp up and having more wide launch on pan-India basis?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We are not working actively, but we are helping them on the industrialization strategy.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Okay. Not on the front end.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Marketing and stuff, look, we are not in the B2C business, so I wouldn't call us experts in that. We are connecting them with people wherever it is needed and whatever help they need is being provided.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Sure, sure. Secondly, on the Tevva side, you indicated there was recent fundraise. What, at what valuation did the fundraise happen and what is our effective stake after not participating in that?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Just one. They have done two rounds of fundraise. The fundraise that we talked about was the previous one, after which we have done a reval. Recently they have done another fundraise at double the value of that. Post both these fundraises, our stake is just under 10%, about 9.8, 9.9, something like that.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Would you not be aware of the last fundraise valuation?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

It's double of what it was in the previous.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

What was the previous one? Sorry.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Like, okay, recently the company is valued in excess of INR 400 million.

Jinesh Gandhi
Head of Research and Auto Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Good. Agree. Thanks. Thanks and all the best.

Operator

Thank you. Again, anyone who wishes to ask a question, please press star and one on your touchtone telephone. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ashutosh Tiwari with Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

We talked about this power cost impact, possible impact on margins in overseas business. Because this huge increase in power costs in these European countries, do we see that probably forging companies in India like us will benefit in terms of increase outsourcing towards India?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

In the longer term, yes, not immediately.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

Okay. Will it be substantial impact for us in the fourth quarter?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

There will be a substantial impact, but obviously over a period of time that will get reimbursed. We don't produce energy. We have to buy energy from the grid.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

Okay.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

There is a price for it. Everybody has to pay it. You know, that is well understood that there is a pass-through on these variables.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Securities

Okay. That was from my side. Thank you.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Kapil Singh with Nomura. Please go ahead.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

Hi, sir. Just a follow-up. If you could talk about whether Bharat Forge has bid for the PLI scheme, under the component champion and, you know, which are the areas that you are targeting over there if so?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Sir, you're asking me about PLI. We have applied for the PLI scheme under two categories, under the Component Champion and OEM.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

Okay. As a OEM, what are we targeting to make?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We have interest from several two-wheeler companies for us to manufacture for them and for certain global start-ups in commercial vehicles where they want us to manufacture, you know, on a EDDM basis, engineering, design, development and manufacture basis. We will manufacture the components and make the product and supply it on a either rolling chassis or finished product basis to them for commercial purposes.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

In the component scheme, what products are we looking to make?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

On components, we are gonna make pretty much every component that goes into an electric vehicle. The high value components. I mean, not chassis and stuff, but, you know, right from motors, power electronics, control electronics, battery, BMS, you know, all that stuff.

Kapil Singh
Executive Director and Equity Research of Autos and Auto Parts, Nomura

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah.

Operator

Again, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on your touch-tone telephone. The next question comes from the line of Ronak Sarda with Systematix Group. Please go ahead.

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

Yeah, hi. Thanks. A question on the international CVs, especially on the North America side. So, do we have what are the production targets for CY 2022? You highlighted the CY 2021 numbers were much lower than what they were initially planned and expected.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

For CVs?

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

For CVs, yes.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

So what-

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Another question on the

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

What are the production targets for Europe and U.S. for CV for 2022 or compared to 2021?

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

In the U.S., they are expecting, let's say the Class 8 segment that we primarily partake in to be somewhere in the region of 300,000 units. In Europe, we are expecting a similar number.

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

Okay. Could this go up if the supply chain eases, and there is more availability on the supply side? I mean, I'm assuming these are, post, you know, taking into account the supply chain constraints.

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

See, at this point, most OEMs are not increasing their production slots as such in a month. I mean, they are maintaining a certain equilibrium.

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

Right.

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

Whereas the indication of demand is there. The broader impression is this may not go up from a production standpoint. They will continue to accumulate backlogs.

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

Got it. It will spread into CY 2023 then to have a smoother production. Sure. Second question, Amit, for you. I mean, on the topic, you know, of production side, how much of the components are we supplying in terms of maybe the number of components, name of components or the value-

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

We are going to supply.

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

That go to the powertrain?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

You know, we are gonna supply the housing for the battery, for the motor, and also we are gonna manufacture certain the motor and the power electronics and control electronics for them.

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

Sure. Okay. On the motor side, have you developed the motor with someone, with some type of collaboration or this is?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

No, this is a proprietary motor.

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

Right. What would be the power range for this motor?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

The motor power range is peak power 6-9 kW currently, and the second model will be from 9-20 kW or from 10-20 kW.

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

Right. We can manufacture both of them, you said?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Yeah, yeah. We are setting up a line which can do flexible manufacturing.

Ronak Sarda
Research Analyst and SVP, Systematix Group

Right. Sure. Thanks a lot and all the very best.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Bhalchandra Shinde with Kotak Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.

Bhalchandra Shinde
Investment Analyst and Assistant Fund Manager, Kotak Institutional Equities

Hi, sir. As you mentioned, in Europe, there is a cost pressure. Would like to know on consolidated basis, how we see the profitability. Means like, do other regions also we will see the margin pressure and relatively our consolidated level margins will be under pressure? For how many quarters we see this scenario?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Look, I don't have a magic ball, crystal ball, so I can't tell you how many quarters. You know, we are right now in the depths of winter. It's one of the most severe winters in the last 10-15 years, both in Europe and the U.S. Even in China and places in Saudi Arabia and some places there's snow. Places which normally don't get the severe winters have had a very severe winter. At the same time, we have geopolitical issues which are causing cost pressures. Honestly, I can't give you a you know, forward-looking view like that.

When there is such a tremendous increase that happens so suddenly, it takes 3-6 months to, you know, resolve this through a dialogue with your customers.

Bhalchandra Shinde
Investment Analyst and Assistant Fund Manager, Kotak Institutional Equities

Sure. On current basis, how much relative EBITDA contribution is from these regions right now for us?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Our EBITDA for the nine months from our overseas subsidiaries was about.

Subodh Tandale
Executive Director, Bharat Forge

What is the question?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

What is the question? Just repeat your last question again.

Bhalchandra Shinde
Investment Analyst and Assistant Fund Manager, Kotak Institutional Equities

The regions where we are seeing the cost pressure, how much EBITDA contribution over last nine months was there?

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

It will be roughly about INR 230 crore-INR 235 crore.

Bhalchandra Shinde
Investment Analyst and Assistant Fund Manager, Kotak Institutional Equities

Thank you.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

From those operations outside India.

Bhalchandra Shinde
Investment Analyst and Assistant Fund Manager, Kotak Institutional Equities

Sure. Thanks. Thank you.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Amit Kalyani for closing remarks.

Amit Kalyani
Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, Bharat Forge

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your time and interest in asking all these questions and getting to know more about what's happening in our company. It's been a challenging quarter, but I think we are heading for exciting times. We have a lot of irons in the fire, and we expect that as these come to maturity, we will start seeing tremendous growth in top line, bottom line and the kind of business that this company will do in going ahead in the future. The new Bharat Forge is gonna be quite different from the old one, and we look forward to you being a part of this journey, as we go ahead. Thank you very much. If anybody has any direct questions, please contact our teams.

Best wishes to you all and for a safe and healthy time, and have a nice weekend. Thank you. Bye.

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of Bharat Forge, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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