Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited (BOM:500570)
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Q2 21/22

Nov 1, 2021

Speaker 6

Good day, and welcome to Tata Motors Q2 FY 2022 Earnings Conference Call. I'm joined today by Mr. Thierry Bolloré, CEO Jaguar Land Rover, Mr. P.B. Balaji, Group CFO Tata Motors, Mr. Adrian Mardell, CFO Jaguar Land Rover, Mr. Girish Wagh, Executive Director Tata Motors, Mr. Shailesh Chandra, President Passenger and Electric Vehicle Business Tata Motors, and my colleagues from the investor relations team. Today, we plan to walk you through the earnings presentation, followed by Q&A. As a reminder, all participant lines are in listen-only mode, and we will be taking questions via the Teams platform, which is already open for you to submit your questions. You are requested to mention your name and the name of your organization while submitting questions. I now hand over to Balaji to begin the presentation.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thank you. Thanks, Neha. Firstly, welcome all of you for the Tata Motors Q2 results call. Let me take you to the safe harbor statement. Next slide, please. I wanna pause here for a minute. Draw your attention to the top right-hand corner where, how we have accounted for Passenger Vehicles business in this particular quarter. Since we have received the honorable NCLT's approval for the demerger of the PV business, accounting will force us to actually treat this as a discontinued operation in our standalone accounts. This does not impact the consolidated books of accounts, and therefore, what we are currently ensuring is that this particular analyst call, as well as the results presentation, we are not recognizing this particular transaction as a discontinued operation. It is there only in the standalone results as numbers.

Slide 42 of this deck has the reconciliation of the two sets of numbers. This problem will be there for two quarters till the business gets fully consolidated. From January 1, when the EV business becomes a subsidiary, this issue will not be there. To ensure consistency of reporting, we are treating it as though it is part of running business of Tata Motors. That is just for abundant caution. In case any of you need any further clarifications on this, feel free to reach out to the IR team, and we can explain to you once again. If you need a quick reconciliation, take a look at slide 42. That's the only comment on the safe harbor statement. Next slide, please. A very, very intense quarter for both in JLR and in Tata Motors.

We already talked about the TPG Rise Climate fundraise that happened in the passenger electric vehicle business. That was in mid-October, and it's our intention to work on this in the next two, three months to ensure that the first tranche gets drawn down. There, of course, was a very exciting launch of Tata Punch, the first subcompact with a five star adult safety rating that landed. I'm sure Shailesh is gonna talk about it in his segment with the way the first month has gone in terms of orders. Of course, in passenger vehicles, in commercial vehicles, you had a reveal of almost 21 vehicles last Thursday. Of course, a huge slew of variants, both in petrol, CNG variants coming through, as well as, the express version of EV going into the market.

As far as JLR is concerned, I will not spend time on the J.D. Power numbers. Adrian is gonna talk about it in the subsequent slides. A huge confirmation of the move towards quality that we have been making. Of course, the new Range Rover was revealed and has received rave reviews on that, which again, I'm sure Adrian is going to talk about. Next slide, please. Numbers. We ended the quarter at a revenue of INR 61,400 crore and Adjusted EBITDA of 8.4%, and a PBT before exceptional item of -INR 3,500 crore.

We had a significant improvement in India and some of our other operations which I'll talk about, and the semiconductor shortages, which you have called out as far as JLR is concerned, affected its performance, but performance better than what we had originally indicated. The business ended up with a PBT before exceptional item I talked about of - INR 3,350 crores. Adjusted EBITDA down 210 basis points, EBIT down 160 basis points, and free cash flows - INR 3,200 crores. Next slide, please. Peeling this growth a little bit, the bulk of it driven by volume and price. Volume going the other way at 5.7% volume and mix. Price coming at 11.4%. Translation of 2.4%.

If you look at the profitability, I'll spend a little bit of time there. EBIT moved from 0.1% to -1.5%, or 160 basis points delta. Of which JLR contributed 330 basis points negative. Tata Motors standalone went up by 70 basis points, and others, which is basically three entities, Tata Motors Financial, Tata Technologies, and Tata Daewoo, coming strong, and therefore that improved the profitability by another 100 basis points at an overall level. Net automotive debt at INR 64,400 crore. The deterioration in working capital almost INR 18,500 crore, and the business underlying external debt remaining at about INR 39,000 crore. That's a broad story there. Next slide, please. Let me hand it over to Adrian to take you through the JLR performance. Adrian, over to you.

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

Many thanks, P.B. Balaji. Good evening, everybody on the call. If you go to the next slide, if you would please. These are our KPIs for the quarter. A lot of this you will know we signaled actually in early July, both on specific calls around the second week, and then we reconfirmed a lot of this at the Q1 announcement. Specifically, where did we end in Q2? Our retails were down to 92,000 units. We did say, and we'll take you through later, the pipeline, both of our units and of dealer units, have fallen dramatically over the period as supply has been the constraint. We did indicate revenue just around $3.7 billion. We came in a little higher at $3.87 billion in the quarter, and that's because the wholesales were up 4,000 units versus our

Our lower range. If you remember, I gave you a range of 60,000-65,000 wholesales for the quarter. We ended up at 64,000. The losses around that were INR 302 million. I'll take you through later, our break-even point continues to fall, and therefore, you know, we believe in the quarter, our underlying break-even position was between 80,000 units-85,000 units, down from 100,000 at the end of last year. You see the Adjusted EBITDA numbers, the EBIT numbers, both reflecting reduced supply and wholesales. Our cash losses were lower, INR 664 million. We indicated up to INR 1 billion off 60,000 units. We came in at 64,000 units, and that went straight into the cash position. You'll also see later our investments were lower in this quarter than they had been in previous quarters. Next slide, please. I've mentioned a lot of those.

Two things, right, I didn't mention from this page. I'll take you through the profitability slide. There's lots of things happening there, but the pluses and minuses do actually balance out in the quarter. Our liquidity was very strong at the end of the quarter, GBP 3.8 billion cash, GBP 5.9 billion liquidity. I'm sure you're aware, S&P did upgrade us a notch within the quarter also. Next slide, please. Okay, these are the wholesale and retail numbers within the quarter by region. You know, the 92,000 top right, I've said already. All regions, with the exception of overseas, were lower because of supply. Overseas were both higher on retails and wholesales. We had a slower pickup last year in FY 2021 in the overseas regions, and therefore we're doing better this quarter than the equivalent quarter last year.

Next slide, if you would, please. This is it by family. Again, all families are down with the exception of Defender. You'll remember we launched Defender in Q1 last fiscal year, and you can see the impact. Last year was partially growing, so we are above. You also know that the Defender is selling incredibly well in the marketplace. Give you a baseline of 5,000 units, and even in a supply-constrained position, which we've had over the last few months, we're above that level at the moment. Electrification continues to increase, up to 66% in this quarter versus 55% in the full year first half. But I think it's important to note that that electrification would be higher, particularly PHEVs, if we could have built the vehicles that our customers are looking for. We do have a demand compliant portfolio in U.K. and Europe.

We were just unable to build those cars in our quarter, too, because of supply constraints. Next slide, please. Okay, so this is a key slide. This is inventory levels. The bottom line, our owned inventory, they are units we haven't yet passed over to dealers and to importers. You can see that inventory level is 20,000 units. It's very close to the lows of last year. If I remind you, last year, we didn't build units for eight weeks, so that's how starved the pipeline currently is. Our dealers even more so, the lowest level of dealer inventory we've had going back a long time in the history books, just at 27,000 units. We will need to build this pipeline once we've actually started to deliver the order banks through to customers.

128,000 orders we had last week, customer orders, and on top of that, of course, we need to build this, these order banks as well, these inventory lines as well. It's reasonable for you to assume there's about 160,000 vehicles waiting to be handed over to customers straight to our dealers once we can build more cars. That's the highest level of handover in, for a long, long time, probably in the history of our company. Next slide, please. Okay, this is quite a complicated slide this time. Our normal waterfall from the same quarter last year. Last year, we were profitable, INR 65 million. I've told you we lost INR 302 million in the quarter. A lot of the things, we put a lot of detail on this time, so we're very transparent as normal about what's happening here.

Volume's down a lot, but mix was down a lot in the quarter as well. The early supply issues we had, particularly from the Renesas fire in Japan, if you recall that. A lot of those impacted our most valuable units, the units within our FA1 facility, Range Rovers, Range Rover Sport, so you can see the mix is actually weak. The thing to call out here is emissions. Even though we have a compliant demand, we're not able to build those cars, so we have taken the opportunity over the last month to pool with other OEMs in U.K. and in Europe, and I will take you through that later in the presentation. VME continues to be lower, so our underlying VME now is a shade above 2%.

Our overall VME in the quarter was down to 1.7%, so you should assume during this supply constraint, VME will continue around the 2% level. Let me remind you, in the second half of last year, it was above 5%. Contribution cost, you can see there, warranty continues to be lower, even though we did actually have to book some early model year campaigns within the data. I'll show you that later also. There are some increases in costs, in commodities, which you see there within material cost, but as I've explained before, over the foreseeable future, we've got hedges in place which offset most of those costs. I think the dramatic piece this time is the structural costs. We are de-stocking, which means we wholesaled more units than we built in the quarter. Our plans are less efficient and therefore, the cost per unit is higher.

That de-stocking will reverse itself once we start to resupply. Capitalization of engineering costs, I'll show you that in investment in a moment. We've talked about this one as well. Often, there's 37% of our R&D was capitalized in the quarter. Now we've gone through 21 modular vehicles. Engineers are working on earlier programs for later architectures. If you remember from 2018 modular onwards, we've delayed the capitalization point on those. You should expect those numbers to be lower for the next few quarters until those new architectures get towards their strategic confirmation gateways. Furlough last year was significant. Much, much lower this year.

We did spend a lot of time actually working on the Refocus material costs to convince ourselves and the auditors that the end of life reserves we were booking on our batteries were no longer required, and we reduced and eliminated those reserves at the end of September. Lots happening on exchange, but broadly speaking, sterling strength means operational exchange negative. The hedges did their job and offset that, and then a revaluation of the debt on the balance sheet as sterling has strengthened, has actually given itself an optical non-EBIT negative there. That's the losses in the quarter. Next slide, please. Okay, cash flow, we indicated it could be up to GBP 1 billion if we only did 60,000 wholesales. I've said to you we did 64,000. This data's really quite dramatic. Almost 80% of our cash losses in the quarter was working capital.

We've given you a full breakout of that, which you'll be able to see from the balance sheets anyway. Simply put, we're building a lot fewer cars at the end of Q2 than we were at the same point in the previous quarter, so we get a big negative again. Look at the bottom line there. We've done the first half year for you, the GBP 1.66 billion cash loss, GBP 1.4 billion of that is working capital. The underlying losses in the first six months actually on just 148,000 wholesales, GBP 240 million. That means our cash break-even point in the first half of the year was lower than 85,000 units a quarter. It dropped to about 80,000 in quarter two, and it will continue to be low.

What you should be hearing here is once we resupply and we build more cars, that working capital will come back very, very quickly, and underlying cash positive will trigger once we get above 80,000 units. We are very confident once supply is returned, that we are going to quickly and significantly reverse these cash losses going forward. Next slide, please. Okay, investment was lower, INR 484, that's the lowest quarterly investment for eight - nine years. You can see the breakdown here. The R&D was very, very close to the number we had in the same quarter last year. Importantly, look at the capitalized R&D versus last year. Just over half the amount we were capitalizing, and therefore we're expensing a lot more of that R&D for the reason I said.

People have moved off 21 modulars onto new architectures, and we won't start capitalizing those architectures until later in their maturation and maturity. This was the point I mentioned about the change we made a few years ago. Capital investment, obviously, we have a rigorous process to actually spend outside in R&D, and you can see the CapEx was lower than 12 months earlier. That will grow in the second half of the year as we bring our new vehicles closer to completion. We are giving new guidance on our investment this year, you'll see in a few moments. Next slide, please. Next slide. This is the beautiful reason why that investment will grow in the second half of the year. We did reveal the new vehicle on the 26th of October. It was quite dramatic.

You can see there some highlights that we've actually listed for you. In terms of the seating arrangements, we do have a seven-seat in this vehicle for the first time in the Range Rover, particularly for our North American customer base. That functionality has gone down very, very well with the early customers there. The EV range is really, really important to understand. The existing P400e has a range of about 40 km. This one will have 100 km. The data we draw down from the car says 75% of journeys are less than 100 km, so 75% of people driving this car will be able to drive full electric.

If you extend that thought for distances beyond that range, the first 100 km will be electrified, fully electrified miles as well, which basically means if you wish to, 85% of the miles you do in this vehicle will be all full electric. That's why the emissions are below 30 g per km, you see that there. There will be an opportunity just about two years later than the issue of this vehicle next year to actually buy the 100% BEV option, the BEV vehicle, but this beautiful modern luxury gorgeous design will actually be, you know, in its purified offering in just over two years' time. Steering on this is the steering circle of a Mini. So it really is a dramatic offering. The engineers have done a stunning job, so have the designers.

Hopefully, you joined the 354,000 people who watched the live launch last week. If not, maybe you're one of the 3 million people that went onto the websites afterwards just because this gorgeous vehicle has been revealed. Next slide, please. Okay, so Refocus. This program was only launched in the fourth quarter last year. It's already having a dramatic impact in our data set. It is probably one of the most complete transformation programs in recent automotive history. Let me remind you that Charge was almost certainly the most complete turnaround in cash generation program in recent automotive history. We already can see GBP 500 million worth of benefit in the first half of this fiscal year. We have teams who independently corroborate this data, and you'll see it in your YoY data.

You know we only measure by things you can see on a YoY basis. We're very confident of the GBP 1 billion we've actually committed this year. We're already halfway there after six months. I won't read that, but there's a lot of detail for you to read there, which shows the holistic nature of the program. It really does meet all of the criteria of a change program. We're very, very proud of the work we've done in the first few quarters of this program, and it will grow and become more valuable going forward, of course. Next slide, please. Okay, pillar one is the quality pillar. Balaji referenced this. You know we've been focused heavily on two things since I came into this job 10 quarters ago, improving VME and improving quality.

They were two big themes from my first communication to you, and I'm super proud of the work that the teams have actually done. Beyond the optical data that I normally talk to, in so many areas corroborated, of course, by the best in the business, J.D. Power, our IQS survey in the U.S., you know, combined were most improved up from 15th - 13th place. JLR was first place in appeal as a corporation, as an OEM, up from second place previous years. Land Rover was second place, and Jaguar 11th overall. I won't read the rest of it, although don't miss the Defender, first place in the midsize, please. In China, Land Rover was second place in the CSI, and we just received the reliability J.D. Power survey in China, where Land Rover, again, is in second place behind Porsche.

All of that is significantly corroboratory evidence about the dramatic improvement in quality which we committed to do. Don't be fooled to think that we're anywhere close to where we wish to be. We definitely now have external corroboration around a lot of the things we've talked to you about over the last 10 quarters. Next slide, please. This is the financial data around it. We did say to you this year we were targeting less than 3.5%. On average for the last four quarters, it's been down to 3.2% underlying.

We did have to book more money on some old model year data, 2011 - 2016 data, on a couple of campaigns, which optically moved it up to 4%, although that was lower than the same quarter last year once we add the campaigns into last year's data. Our next job is to get the underlying below 3%, and we're very focused on that over the next four quarters. Next slide, please. Okay, emissions, you know, a few points to register here. Firstly, based off demand, we have a compliant portfolio in both the U.K. and in Europe. However, because of semiconductors, we're unable to build those units today. Given the assessment is over a calendar year, we were nine months through. We moved to plan B.

Plan B was to actually join other OEMs in terms of a pooling arrangement, which we've now done in U.K. and in Europe, and the amount of reserves we have on our books ultimately will be decided by the amount of credits we need to buy. The worst position we're stating here for the calendar year now is GBP 37 million worth of credit purchases in U.K. and Europe in calendar year 2021. We continue to work with other OEMs to buy credits in U.S. and in China. Obviously, in those markets, we wouldn't have a compliant portfolio because they are less PHEV markets. Next slide, please. All righty, semiconductors, I'm sure there's lots of questions around this. Look, we're making progress, a lot of progress, although we significantly reduced the performance in quarter two because of the challenges we have.

We talked in a lot of detail in July around the challenges we saw, the Renesas fire, the Texas storms. The lockdown in Malaysia did actually hit us later in the quarter and into October, greater than we were seeing in July. Ultimately, that was the reason why we didn't build more cars and wholesale more cars into quarter two. Of course, our ability to overcome these challenges has significantly increased. You know, with the chips available, we've targeted them to the right cars, so you will see the data in terms of the average gross vehicle revenue much higher this quarter than other quarters for that reason. Where we could, we did that.

We did limit the order banks by taking away some of those lower derivative orders as well from customers' side. We've done a lot of work with the Refocus program, particularly the data analysis and our scaled-up and digital team. We have more than 200 people in that team now, up from 100 earlier in the year, where we're targeting not only which cars we should build, but the full end-to-end pipeline right back to the several sources of chip manufacturer. There's been a great leadership from our CEO, who's had direct dialogue with CEOs of both the major first-tier suppliers to us who weren't able to supply the parts we'd asked for, and right back to the source to the actual semiconductor providers. We have complete transparency now from start to end of the pipeline, so everybody's super clear what we need.

We've given you a sense earlier what we need. We need a lot more parts to generate a lot more vehicles to make sure we meet the demand, the increase in demand that we have across all of our nameplates. We're much better placed to handle this challenge going forward. You know, although it will continue to impact us in the second half of the year, particularly in our Q3 data. Our production will be significantly higher from the 50,000 units we built in quarter two. Next slide, please. Okay, so breakeven, you know we put a lot of focus on this through Charge. We told you in May we were down to 100,000 units. We told you in July that dropped to 90,000 units a quarter.

It's dropped again, actually, around quarter two data, around 85,000 units. I'm giving you a sustainable number here. Optically, the data will be lower than 85,000 units in half two, given the portfolio we will build, but I'm giving you the underlying data actually going forward. One thing we will benefit from this crisis, we've taken the opportunity for the foreseeable future to reduce our breakeven point from 400,000 units a year to below 350,000 units. Once we can build more cars, we will be profitable sooner, and our profitability will be higher, and so will our cash balance. We haven't wasted the difficulties we've had. We've used this to, again, push even more on the value-generative business we wish to be. Next slide, please. Okay, guidance, second half year versus full year.

I won't read all this out, but I will refer to the key priorities. Nothing's changed on the right-hand side, by the way. We're increasingly confident. If you link that last slide in terms of our breakeven point low, and we're increasingly confident about EBIT returns going forward and cash generative. I've kept the same numbers, FY 2024 and FY 2026. We'll give new guidance on FY 2023 as we get into the quarter four. Our key priority is obviously to continue to manage the supply crisis, so we overcome the challenges there. You won't see the full power of the data that we believe we can now bring through the sales maturation we now have. Reimagine strategy, obviously nine months in increases. You've seen modern luxury in the physical presence of the beautiful new Range Rover.

That will continue in the new cars we put into the field. After the Range Rover Refocus program, I've talked a lot about really scaling up to be a significant value-generative, holistic transformation program. I am repeating the guidance in the second half of the year I gave in July, will be cash and EBIT margin positive in H2, cash positive before the restructuring costs, and we're pushing to be cash positive, including the restructuring costs, but the data isn't there with confidence yet. Next slide, please. I think this is my transfer back slide, Balaji. Yes. Thank you.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Adrian. Let me straight away get on to the Tata Motors slides. We ended the Q2 with a revenue of INR 18,000 crore, a bit of 3.9% PBT of negative INR 800 crore and a positive free cash flow. Good part is, all the lines started trending in the right direction in terms of growth as well as profitability improvement. The reversal, what Adrian alluded to in terms of working capital coming back, you're already seeing that with growth coming in Tata Motors, the story is identical, just the growth came in earlier here, and hence you're seeing the free cash flow turn positive here, and I'll touch upon the data. Again, a word of caution, this is without considering this discontinued operation accounting treatment, so but this is like-for-like comparison. Next slide, please.

Key call-outs, if I were to put out, other than what you saw in the earlier slide, commercial vehicles grew 97%, passenger vehicles 83%. A very strong order book, and EV in particular growing very strong. If I add the October numbers that just got published today, EV penetration is now touching almost 5% of the entire portfolio. Profitability at 3.9%, up 130 basis points. This is despite the commodity pressures, and I'll talk about it in a little while. Commercial vehicles at 3.1% is basically the entire thing this commodity inflation that's causing the pain.

PV has been a standout performer this quarter, with Adjusted EBITDA improving once again to 5.2%, and we are now starting to see almost near EBIT breakeven in this business, which I'll cover in a while. Free cash flows of INR 3,800 crores. Operational cash flow is positive for the first half of the year, and working capital improves by another 3,800,000,000 crores. Almost 50% of it is sorted, and we'll expect to see this going forward improve as well. Next slide, please. Just a flavor of where the numbers moved from. I'll call out the brackets that you see below.

There's an unrecovered price of almost 480 basis points because of the commodity inflation that we are not able to price. That's despite putting through almost 25% kind of price increase in the business. It tells you the level of commodity inflation we are dealing with, particularly arising from steel and precious metals. Fixed cost, the investments are not too stressed about it because these are all growth-led investments. Higher FMEs because we had IPO in the second half of the year, compared to last quarter. Depreciation, amortization, and product development, basically the new costs coming in is giving you that. Next slide, please. Free cash flow.

The operating cash, which is cash profit after tax less investment, is positive for this quarter as well as positive on a half year basis, which means despite COVID, this business is now standing on its own feet. What is basically causing the grief is working capital, which reversed almost 50% this quarter. The one that we really need to bell is this finance expenses, which as the deleverage plan kicks in, we should be able to sort it out. Next slide, please. CapEx, I won't touch upon it, in line with what I've planned for the year. Next slide. Going into commercial vehicles, the next slide on market shares. If you see, the good part of this quarter has been we have gained share in all four segments.

On a half year basis, we are now at 44.6. This quarter was almost +47%, when Q2 ended, so was it in October month as well. Good part is SCV salience is now starting to normalize, and that gives us tailwinds. MNHCV at 61.6, ILCV at 49.4, and small commercial vehicles also starting to grow share means that overall we are now this portfolio is starting to look good, and October has only strengthened it further, which Girish will talk about in a while. Next slide, please. Financials on commercial vehicles. Wholesales and retails growth growing at almost, I mean, retail is at 100% kind of a growth. Revenue up 97% and Adjusted EBITDA.

The connection between wholesales and revenue, if you see, that shows you the magnitude of the pricing that has gone into the market. Adjusted EBITDA broadly flat at 3.1%, despite this volume growth, tells you the headwind on inflation that we are seeing, the 4.8 Adjusted EBITDA referred to earlier. EBIT, of course, starting to get almost close to breakeven. This is something we are working on. Next slide, please. Girish, you wanna quickly pick this up?

Girish Wagh
Executive Director, Tata Motors

Yeah. Thanks, Balaji. Key highlights for the quarter. The volumes were 51% up from the first quarter and almost 84% over quarter one and 51% over Q2 of last year. I think the demand has recovered pretty well after the second wave of COVID. As Balaji mentioned, we have gained market share across all four segments in Q2, with the total increase over last year's Q2 being 220 basis points. If you look at October, I think by end of October, in fact, we have gained across all the segments, the four segments that we track. I think the market share going well, and as you would have seen, I think there is a further potential upside with the mix changing as we get into the second half.

I think right now both medium and heavies and intermediate and light are still at a lower salience as compared to SCV. We have a further upside there going into the second half. Steel increases and of course, precious metals is something which has been impacting the margins. We've taken a price increase on first April, first July and first October, but the pass-through has not been full. With the transporters profitability is still being under pressure as compared to Q4 of last year, I think there is a limit to which the price increase is getting through, and I'll speak about that more. At the same time, I think we are focusing a lot of activities on cost reduction and also pleased to tell you that our fixed cost, other expenses do remain under control, therefore helping the breakeven to that extent.

Diesel prices at historically high levels, even last six days continuously going up. As a result, we are seeing a good preference shifting to CNG due to the total cost of ownership advantage. Already in small commercial vehicles as well as intermediate and light commercial vehicles, we see a good swing happening. In fact, the salience of CNG in intermediate and light commercial vehicles is almost 40%-50% depending upon the month. That's the kind of swing which has happened. The good things, as I said, there has been a sequential improvement in fleet utilization and is led by cargo, by agriculture, FMCG, E-commerce essentially. But also we see a good uptick happening in construction activities generally as well as infrastructure projects.

We see a good future for even the tipper industry going ahead. The small commercial vehicle demand kind of continues to be resilient, but I think the impact has been seen due to the semiconductor shortage here. It's this segment where the semiconductor shortage has been hitting us. Overall, I think very good demand in ILCVs and early signs of recovery in MNHCVs, I would say. I think still not there because bulk of the buyers are still institutional customers, fleet owners. The retail customers or single vehicle customers are still not in the market. Our internal metric, which is trucker sentiment index, has seen a very good recovery on both medium and heavies and intermediate and light in Q2, and this is despite it was done towards the middle of the second wave.

There is a good expectation about the future and, for that matter, for second half. Even last year we had seen that the second half had good volume increase compared to the first half. Some of the challenges I spoke about, the steel increases, steel and precious metals. Fortunately, the precious metals seem to be slowing down a bit, and steel is something that we are continuously looking at. Focus is on both improving the realizations in the market as well as the cost reduction efforts. Buses and vans still remain very muted. In vans, more or less the demand was more on ambulances. In terms of buses, now we have started seeing some inquiries happening from STUs as well as stage carriage, that is employee transportation, as employees start coming back to office.

Semiconductor availability is hitting us, especially in small commercial vehicles and intermediate and light commercial vehicles. We are monitoring on almost a daily basis to see what action can be put in place, including reducing the usage or using an alternate semiconductor wherever possible to see to it that we are reducing the impact on volumes. In terms of vehicle financing, as I said, I think most deals are being closed for large fleet owners, especially in medium and heavy commercial vehicles. Retail funding still remains a challenge, but gradually, I think the financials, as their NPAs are reducing, are also coming back into the market for the retail customers.

Finally, I think transporter profitability is something that we are closely watching because, with increasing utilization, with increasing freight availability, I think the transporters are able to increase the freight rates consistently since the month of July. I think with the increase in steel prices, sorry, the fuel prices, diesel prices, the profitability is still below March. This is something that we need to keep watching, but I'm sure with the increasing freight availability, the freight rates can go up and the profitability will come back. That in summary is what you've seen in quarter two for commercial vehicles. Balaji?

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thank you, Girish. Moving on to passenger vehicles, a standout quarter, next slide please, where market shares went up to 11% and increased further in October. Just look at the growth rates. The industry grew 2%, Tata Motors PV grew 53%, and EVs grew 190% this quarter. Powertrain mix is now almost 3% EVs, diesel at 23%. The full New Forever range of products really received well, and Tata Punch is now adding to the momentum of this business. Nexon crossed the 10,000 monthly sales mark. Of course, October has only made it even stronger, which I'm sure Shailesh is gonna talk about subsequently in the Q&A. Next slide, please. This obviously translates.

Sorry, specifically on EVs, market share of 71% when we ended in September. The real piece that you're seeing is an expanding of the booking versus retail. Currently our lead time to supply the vehicle has now gone up to almost six months plus, and that's something which we don't like, but we are trying to ensure that we service our customer demand. What is really reassuring is the demand continues unabated and picking up momentum there. Financials, a lovely slide to speak to, where everything trending in the right direction, be it wholesales, be it retails, be it revenues. This INR 7,400 crores of revenue is the highest we've seen in the quarter for Tata Motors.

Adjusted EBITDA of 3% - 5.2% is also one of the highest we've seen in a long period of time, and we are now within sight of an EBIT breakeven, which is what our next sights would be as we go forward. Do keep in mind, this is despite the kind of commodity inflation that we have seen, and we are on a few volumes actually now sequentially improving our profitability as we go forward. Therefore, we do intend to continue this momentum. Next slide, please. Shailesh Chandra, can I hand it over to you?

Shailesh Chandra
President of Passenger and Electric Vehicle Business, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles

Yeah. Thank you, Balaji. Continue the growth momentum and further strengthen our market position, we are working in these three areas, demand generation, demand fulfillment, and profitability and cash management. In terms of demand generation, we are continuing to work on standard sales lever, as well as micro market specific actions in about 20 - 25 micro markets that we have identified, and also expanding ourselves in the rural areas. We are also strengthening our inquiry conversion rate by leveraging upon our comprehensive portfolio of products, and especially post the launch of Punch, which is actually providing multiple options to our customers. The products are very well complementing each other, which helps us also in improving conversion rates.

To accelerate the EV adoption, we are focusing on the 16 states and union territories which have notified very progressive EV policies. Five out of five states are already in the draft stage, so these will be our key priority states where we'll focus for driving adoption. As also on the network sufficiency, we have been expanding very in a very accelerated manner in both rural areas as well as in the urban centers. Also there has been work which has been done in enhancing the working capital of our dealers to support the steep growth that we have been witnessing in the last 18 months.

There has been nearly 25% increase in the manpowers also at the dealers, which is now sufficient to support the growth that we have planned for in this financial year. The productivity has also, you know, doubled in the last 18 months as far as the manpower productivity is concerned. On the demand fulfillment side, semiconductor supply situation continues to remain precarious in Q3 also, even though I think it will be better than Q2. We are taking various actions to minimize any adverse impact. The last 18 months we have been taking various actions to debottleneck capacities, especially for the high demand models. Various aggregates like engine.

This is more or less in place now to support the plan that we have in this financial year in terms of the monthly volumes. Also, we have identified some critical components where we are trying to build to the best possible extent strategic inventory. Also, in the last quarter, we have launched one new EV, which was Tigor EV, and then Tata Punch in October. We are now trying to stabilize the production. I'm very happy to inform that Tigor EV has also qualified for FAME, and therefore it is eligible for you know, various state incentives, which we are seeing the last one week post we got the FAME certificate. There's a very steep increase in demand in the incentive states where incentives are being extended.

Tata Punch has received a very strong response and this you know in October month we sold nearly +8,000 vehicles. We are seeing very strong response to these two products, and therefore we are now trying to stabilize the production. On profitability and cash management we have been working on a very rigorous way. There are some eight or nine levers that we have identified, and this includes the smart mix management in terms of models and the trims. While trying to of course best align with the demand generation we have also put cross-functional teams which are working on the cost reduction ideas and holding multiple idea generation workshops.

In the last 5 months-6 months, they have really generated strong pipeline of ideas, which is good to support improvement in the contribution margin. There's also very strict control on the fixed cost in a phase where we are scaling up our business. We are having a very tight management and governance around the working capital. I think with all these actions, it's gonna help us further strengthen our sales and financial performance. Back to you, P.B. Balaji.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thank you, Shailesh. Moving on to the Tata Motors Finance. If you recall, like this is one area where we had concerns last quarter with a PBT loss of almost INR 4.6 crores that we had. Happy to report this is now picked up quite substantially. This is a quarter where we had collection efficiency trending at +100% for all the months. The PBT came back pretty strong at INR 486 crores. On a half year basis, we are now PBT breakeven. The GNPA are still high at 8.1%, and we intend to bring this down to 5% by end of this financial year. No, things are working well for this business. Collection infrastructure has come back pretty strong with everybody getting vaccinated.

Their own internal metrics on cost-to-income ratio, collection efficiencies, as well as going asset light, all trending in the right direction. The business is on an even keel here. Next slide, please. Moving on to the final outlook for the coming quarters and beyond. We do expect to see demand situation continuing to improve as the pandemic subsides and vaccination rates pick up. Supply situation will remain challenging in the near term, be it on semiconductor shortages or on commodity inflation. We expect performance to improve gradually starting this quarter onwards and will progressively keep improving as well. For JLR, Adrian already talked about the proactive action that we have, the actions that we are putting in place.

For Tata Motors, you see on the right-hand side, for CV, the agenda remains continued market share improvement and protecting margins in an inflation environment. For PV, to step up the profitability of the sales momentum while continuing to reach the EBIT breakeven mantra that they are on to. EV is completing the various CPs for the Helios deal closure and draw down the first tranche of monies there. That will then help us invest and turbocharge the EV growth even further. In the meanwhile, unlock any supply chain bottlenecks that we have so that we can reduce the lead times for servicing the vehicles. Both in JLR and Tata Motors achieve a positive EBIT breakeven and a positive free cash flows in second half. That's what our plan for the quarter is.

With this, let me now take the questions that are coming in. Once again, request you feel free to type in your questions in the questions tab that you have, and we'll pick it up from here. Okay. Let me then read out the question that's coming in. The first one coming in from Pramod Amthe, InCred. What is the China premium car industry current inventory situation? What are the future outlook on China industry market volume and profitability, considering sharp economic slowdown? Adrian?

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

Yeah. Thank you. Thank you, Balaji. You know, our metrics we've taken you through before in China significantly improved in the import business, particularly as a result of quality of sales over the last two years. We've continued to apply that now with reduced supply to the CJLR business as well. You will start to see that data actually improving from a quality of sales and reduced discounting perspective. Both of those numbers in Q2 were significantly impacted by supply shortages. Any other data you see in Q2 relative to other OEMs, etc., is less meaningful for us. I think the dealer inventory levels, the dealer profitability levels, which did improve dramatically actually in Q2, particularly on the import business, are by far the most important metrics for us here. The marketplace is in a very good position.

The Charge programs being used on the local business now as well. I do see quite a fast v alue-driven pickup in China once we're able to increase supply in the second half of the year.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Adrian. Second question coming in from Jay Carlin. Globally, BEV penetration trend is much faster than in India. However, for Tata Motors, the JLR EV penetration trajectory is expected to be much slower than that for Tata Motors. How do you see the role of partnerships and fundraising in JLR to bridge this gap to play catch-up with the global competition? Let me take this question, then pass it on to Thierry as well. I think, Jay, what we must keep in mind that JLR has announced a Reimagine strategy, which is basically looking at converting the entire Jaguar portfolio into an electric-only portfolio starting FY 2024. And of course, six Land Rover BEVs coming in as well. The action plans for electrification are as ambitious as what Tata Motors is setting out to achieve as well.

Therefore, that we believe is a first part of the puzzle. Second, as far as funding itself is concerned, Adrian has already referred to the break-evens of the business coming down. Today, the issue is not so much about the business profitability, the issue is about supply availability of semiconductors. When that gets corrected, the funding is not an issue. Thirdly, the GBP 2.5 billion that we have put out as far as CapEx plan is concerned is sufficient for us to manage the Reimagine transformation, and therefore, we do not see any role of partnerships or fundraising in JLR to deliver this particular agenda. At present, there are no other plans as far as any fundraise in JLR is concerned.

Let me hand it over to Thierry in case he's likely to add further to what I just said. Thierry?

Thierry Bolloré
CEO, Jaguar Land Rover

No, thank you, Balaji. I think that it's worth mentioning, of course, the fact that JLR was the first to have a fully electric real top premium car put on the market, which is the I-PACE, which is an excellent car and successful car. At the same time that the electrification was massively increased in the past years, and you could see the figure of Q2, which is 66% electrified output, with PHEV, MHEV, and BEV together. Third, I think what is key is to be on time against including the evolution of the ecosystem to make it such that when you are really looking for big BEV figures, you get it because the ecosystem is also in place.

That's the rhythm that we intend to drive with our next generation of BEV cars, whether it be, of course, the Jaguar, as we announced in Reimagine, with a portfolio of BEV-only new Jaguars and also with Land Rover, because all models will be proposed with a BEV version. We will do that in an ecosystem where we expect that our consumers, our customers will just wonder why to have an ICE instead of a BEV, which is not yet the case.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thank you, Thierry. Next question, Adrian, this is coming your way. This is from Satyam Thakur, Crédit Suisse . Do you expect JLR mix to moderate as chip supply normalizes over the next four quarters or so? And how is the mix in your order book compared to the mix of your sales? First question.

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

Yeah.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Second question, gains from realization and commodity hedges offset a large part of the commodity cost increases in second quarter. How do you see this trending going in the coming quarters? Two questions, Adrian.

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

Okay. Thanks, Balaji. Let me take the answers in that order. Look, you haven't seen the full benefit of the mix improvement yet within our data. You know, we've got order banks, and we have to be responsible in terms of the orders we already have. We're just starting to see it in the data at the end of Q2, which is why you saw the average gross revenue increase above 60,000. I would expect that to be even richer in our quarter three data set. Don't forget, we're then going through a series of change for our most profitable and valuable units, Range Rovers and then Range Rover Sports.

Quarter four and quarter one next year, as we start to change those programs on, you'll see a moderation of that mix. Once we have those new vehicles and the supply issues are overcome, I think you'll see a new norm for us in quarter two next year, and that will walk towards that +7% EBIT I've mentioned to you previously. You will see a richening before it normalizes out in terms of our mix over the next 1 quarters-2 quarters, I would expect. On the second question, Balaji, remind me. Go back to the question there, if you would, please. Thank you. Okay. Yeah, okay, on commodities. Thank you. On commodity costs, yeah, pretty much negated as you saw within the quarter.

We do have hedges in place, as we've explained to you before, particularly over the next 4 quarters-6 quarters, and the offset would reduce over that period of time. We're dramatically scaling up our cost reduction efforts. We didn't talk too much today about it, and Ignite and material costs, so I'd expect all commodities to be offset and even more by material cost reductions on our vehicles. Up to GBP 1,000 has already been identified, and a lot of that will be coming through as we go through the 2022 and the 2023 model year vehicles. I'll repeat again, there are pressures not only on commodities, on wages, on transport and, you know, inflationary pressures, but the Refocus program is there not only to offset those, to increase our efficiency, and that's what I expect it to do going forward as well. Balaji?

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Adrian. One more question coming your way, Adrian. This is from Gunjan, Bank of America. Can you help us understand the normalized levels of VME and warranty costs as well as mix?

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

VME, let me take you back to what I would have told you 2 quarters-3 quarters ago. In a normal environment, when we're, you know, producing +10,000 cars a week, you know, we thought VME levels were 4.5%-5%. You know, whether the new norm is exactly at that level or a little bit less, I'm not certain yet. But until we start building more than 10,000 cars a week, you know, the norm is the 2% level. It will grow back, but don't forget we've got a starved pipeline, so it won't come back as quickly as you may model. Right. I expect this environment to continue, you know, way beyond our, you know, our resupply period.

We're also, of course, choosing to only allow some higher derivatives for a period of time, and our order banks remain strong. The new norm for that may actually continue even lower for even longer. I'll say 4%-5%, but it won't happen as quickly as resupply. In terms of warranty, I reference back to the presentation. We wanted it consistently below 3.5%. We did have some campaigns in the quarter, but excluding campaigns, we believe we're at 3.2%. Our target is now below 3%, and we're working towards 3% and lower over the next several quarters. Balaji?

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Adrian. Shailesh, this one is coming your way, on Tata Punch, coming from Jinesh Gandhi. Can you talk about the response to Punch with respect to inquiries and bookings? Post the launch of Punch, how does the product launch pipeline for PV business look like? And do we have any model launches or focus will be on variants and electrifying the ICE models? The last one, Jinesh, I can tell you right away, that's something we'll obviously see as we go along. The other two questions, Shailesh, for you.

Shailesh Chandra
President of Passenger and Electric Vehicle Business, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles

Balaji, your voice was breaking. First question was the response to Punch in terms of inquiries and bookings.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Yes. Inquiries and bookings. Yes.

Shailesh Chandra
President of Passenger and Electric Vehicle Business, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles

Yeah. The second one?

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Second one was, how does the product launch pipeline for the PV business model look like post the launch of Punch?

Shailesh Chandra
President of Passenger and Electric Vehicle Business, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles

Okay. Got it. You know, we don't reveal the numbers as far as, you know, bookings and inquiries are concerned, but I can just give you an indication that before the launch of Punch, we were receiving bookings per month at X, it would have grown by more than 50%. That has been the response of Punch and, you know, pre-price announcement and post-price announcement, we have seen nearly 1.5 times jump in the bookings. In certain models now, the waiting period of Punch would have increased to, you know, 7 weeks-8 weeks. In certain models where the demand is very high, it has also gone up to 4 months-5 months. The response has been very good.

We have not received this kind of bookings among the portfolio of, you know, products that we have today. It remains very strong and it has increased our bookings by more than one and a half times as compared to what we were receiving, say, in the month of September. That would have answered or given you an indication what is the extent of increase that we have seen. As far as product pipeline is concerned, beyond Punch, we are exploring, you know, one or two options, you know, beyond the range of 6- 7 products now that we have. The selection of our products in our portfolio has been always those segments where we see future growth and where the size is going to be meaningful.

We have identified certain, you know, white spaces where we would like to be present, and we'll be able to reveal at the right point in time. You will see more action in the next few years, as we have already mentioned, 10 products in the EV, which would mean that one or two products we would launch every year. You'll see action both on the EV, more on the EV and then, you know, few new products as far as the Passenger Vehicle ICE business is concerned.

We'll be able to reveal at the right time, but you can expect that in the next 3 years-4 years, you will have more additional new products coming in those segments where the growth is going to be high in future, which is going to be relevant in future, and where the size is going to grow.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Shailesh. Next question from Priyaranjan, HDFC AMC. Girish, this is coming your way. On the domestic business, what are the reasons for the EBIT losses in the CV business despite improved QoQ volume? Is it because the industry discounting has increased significantly or our break-even point has gone up?

Girish Wagh
Executive Director, Tata Motors

Okay. Priyaranjan, it's a mix of two things. One is the stress on contribution margins due to the inability to pass through all the commodity increases. That's the first reason which is hitting the contribution margin. Within that, we've also seen that as compared to a regular year, our product mix still has a headroom to improve in the sense the percentage of M&SCV in the overall volume. Then there is a scope for improvement in customer mix. As I said in my presentation, that bulk of the customers are still the fleet owners. Retail customers are yet to come back. Even within the country, I think the geography mix is slightly inferior as compared to any other year. Secondly, with the increase in volume, the fixed expenses to support that have gone up by that amount.

With the stress on contribution, I think it has led to this Adjusted EBITDA and EBIT margin at this venture. I think as we go ahead and as the demand improves, we see the realizations going up as also I think the fixed costs coming under better control, leading to therefore improvement in the EBIT.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Just to add to that, Priyaranjan, if you notice the slide on the EBIT movement, we have called out almost 480 basis points of profitability getting impacted because of our inability to price the kind of commodity inflation that we are having. With the savings program picking up as well as some of these things trending down and more and more costs being, I mean, price being landed in the market, this should start improving from here on. Next question, I think I'll probably address it to Thierry and then to Shailesh to amplify thereafter. This is from, again, Priyaranjan.

What is R&D's approach to the change of electrical and electronic architectures or changing to a new generation semiconductor node, like some of the new age EV OEMs are doing or some of the Germans, in order to mitigate the chip impact?

Thierry Bolloré
CEO, Jaguar Land Rover

Thank you. It's a great question. For me, it's a strategical question more than tactical one. It is very true that JLR is equipped with a fantastic team in terms of software on board and off board, and I can tell you by experience and comparison that it's really a great asset for the company. Consequence of that is that the team has already improved its electronic architecture significantly. By the way, you can see that with the customer satisfaction data from our World Car of the Year 2021. What we are preparing is not a follow-up. It's a real leapfrog in order to be better compared to the OEM that you are mentioning implicitly in that question.

It is very true that it's going to have an impact on our strategy concerning semiconductor. Both good and bad get together. It is also part, by the way, of an anticipation from the team, but it's a part also of the crisis that we're experiencing at the moment, which is completely changing the paradigm of our connection to the supply chain to the semiconductor manufacturers. It is very clear that we are already equipped and starting to talk about design of chips, about the way we connect this design to the future customer satisfaction and experiences, which are going to be absolutely nothing to compare with what we can offer today. It's a great question.

Yes, we go in that direction with a lot of enthusiasm, I can say, because it's a key part of transforming our business from a classical OEM to a tech industry.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Thierry. Shailesh, do you want to amplify anything on that?

Shailesh Chandra
President of Passenger and Electric Vehicle Business, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles

No, you know, Thierry has answered, and there's a lot of, you know, collaborative work that we are doing along with JLR also to cross-leverage each other's expertise. There's work which is being done on the future generation of electrical and electronics architecture together. As far as, you know, semiconductor strategy, especially, you know, in the light of the crisis that we can potentially see going forward, especially when it comes to electric vehicles, there are multiple initiatives, and we have successfully done in certain cases where, in critical items, we are bringing down the use of chip by going with all-in-one strategy. Many a times, the components have been different and, you know, we have been able to optimize the number of semiconductors that we use and exposure to number of semiconductor suppliers.

In one component, we were able to successfully halve the number of semiconductors that we were using. I think going forward also, we are going to go for a lot of optimization and the expertise to handle this is a focus area where we are working on.

Thierry Bolloré
CEO, Jaguar Land Rover

We can ex-

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Shailesh. Sorry.

Thierry Bolloré
CEO, Jaguar Land Rover

Balaji.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Yeah, Thierry.

Thierry Bolloré
CEO, Jaguar Land Rover

Yeah. I think we can extend the answer to that great question to also what's happening in the way to enhance the synergies between the Tata companies. Of course, Tata Motors and JLR, I think Shailesh has answered perfectly well. We are together on the same boat to build what's next. That's extremely promising for all, including in terms of competitiveness. But I think it's also a great example where already with TCS and other Tata companies, we have had fantastic cooperation, especially on the software side, but not only. We can see in front of us incredible synergies to be exercised further for the good sake of our technology on one hand and our competitiveness on the other hand.

It's a great question. Thank you.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thank you, Thierry and Shailesh. Next question, I'll take that question. In the India business, we talked about a 480 BPS under recovery linked to commodities. Could you share this breakup between PV and CV? Also, does this take into account the early October price hike in CVs? I think broadly similar, 400 BPS on PV and about 500 in CV, Binay. As far as this does not take into account the October price hike. That starts from now onwards. Do keep in mind that the VME levels too in order to land the price also, we have whatever price hike we've taken, it's not translating into realization because of increased VME to that extent. So we're hoping that all these will start tempering down going forward. Next question. Give me a minute.

Ronak Sarda, how are the cancellation trends in the JLR order book other than the Defender? How do you think it will change if competition is able to improve supply situation ahead of JLR? Adrian, would you wanna pick this up?

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

Yeah, yeah, of course, Balaji. Thank you. Look, we've been working hard to make sure that those order books are not growing even further. In Defender, I know the question does say excluding Defender, but we're somewhere between 5 months - 7 months worth of orders depending on how many units we're able to pass over, about 34,000 of the 128,000 orders are Defenders. Yeah, but we have healthy orders on Range Rover Sport, on Range Rover Evoque. Don't forget the existing Range Rover is in its last quarter before full run out. We only started to reveal that car last week. So we expect to have significant orders for new Range Rover, which are not within this data at this point in time. So we're not worried about order cancellations. We do track that. It's in the

It was in the tens of units. One particular outlier did show hundreds of units. Over the last 6 months, if others can build cars more than we can, it could have an impact, but it won't take away our desire to hold onto an order book which is several months in duration. In terms of the pipeline fill, you know, we can see 30,000-40,000 cars needing to be added. In terms of the monitoring of where they will go, we think about a third of those units will be our inventory not passed over, and two-thirds will be in dealer inventory, and therefore those pieces will actually improve our revenues and our working capital cashflow reversals. Does that give you a sense of what's expected to happen?

Obviously we won't build those pipelines until we've started to remove some of those orders. Units will pass very quickly over the next several months, for sure.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Adrian, the next question coming your way as well. Can you please explain how inventory building will impact both profitability and working capital reversal?

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

Yes. I'll go back to that build of 30,000-40,000 units across the total pipeline. 2/3 of them will go to dealers very quickly through the pipeline. Obviously, that will be a build back favorable on working capital 'cause they, those units will be sold. A third will be ours, and you'll see the INR 2.5 billion inventory on our books grow by INR a few hundred million once we've added that back. That's the answer to that, Balaji.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thank you. Maybe another question on India CV, I'll take that. Is it safe to assume fourth quarter we'll see a real demand test? Do we see growth on an already high base of last year? I think we'll have to see progressive improvement in growth. Let's not forget that the CV business has gone through a fair amount of challenges over the last few years. Therefore, I would rather wait and see every quarter how sequentially things are improving. Girish, you wanna add anything to that?

Girish Wagh
Executive Director, Tata Motors

I think not just Q4, even Q3 will be a test because last year's H2 volumes, while they were high, they were high compared with H1 of last year. They were still low compared to H2 of a good year. We expect that even this year, H2 should be much better than H1 of this year and should be marginally better than H2 of previous year. I mean, all the data points suggest to look towards that.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Yeah. Thank you. Moving on to Chirag Shah. Next one, India's percentage contribution from CNG, SCV, and ILCV and type of usage that is driving it. You wanna comment on that, Girish?

Girish Wagh
Executive Director, Tata Motors

I think in CNG in small commercial vehicles is now around 15%, but this is limited by supply side and not so much from the demand side. As far as intermediate and light commercial vehicles is concerned, it is already above 45%. In both the cases, I think this is being driven more by intra-city usage and also in regions where there is a good spread or good availability of retail distribution of fuel stations. For example, Maharashtra, Gujarat, National Capital Region. Here in these states, I think to a large extent we'll see migration happening towards CNG. It is more of intra-city distribution and intra-state wherever the proliferation of the pumps fuel stations is very high.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Okay. Thanks. Thank you. Question, Adrian, first one coming your way, and second one thing is more a theory question. New Range Rover ramp-up plan and impact due to rundown of old Range Rover.

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

The crossover period's going to be quarter four. Because of the supply challenges, the rundown of the old Range Rover, I mean, look, the VME in North America on this at the moment is lowest in industry in its ninth year. I think that speaks a lot about our concerns about running out the old one. You know, that's very orderly, probably the most orderly run out of a vehicle in the history of automotive, let alone in the history of Jaguar Land Rover. We're very confident on the run out. The run in will be progressive from quarter four. If you look at your Defender data last year, you'll see the first quarter's less than the second quarter, which is less than the third quarter. That will happen on this vehicle also for sure.

We think this is very controlled, orderly run out of old into new.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Adrian. Thierry, I'm sure you're gonna jump onto this question. This is a comment, a qualitative comment on the RR design. It has a lot of carryover of the outgoing. It's very unlike 2011, 2012, which was very radical on style as well as weight. Any observations, comments?

Thierry Bolloré
CEO, Jaguar Land Rover

Yeah, I think it deserves a comment. The first one is that it's intentional that the two or three key lines of the silhouette of new Range Rover are reminding the family, because it's on purpose. The second is that except those two or three lines, I think there is not a single carryover, design-wise of the new compared to the old one, and this is true outside. There is not a single part which is common. The platform is new and the interior as well. When you listen to the feedback of the millions of feedback that we got already from the people who have seen the new Range Rover, it looks like they would not say what is in the question. They really discovered the new Range Rover as an absolutely new one.

Even though against the silhouette family-wise is still there. Fortunately, because it's part of the success, it's part of the proportion, which are the trademark of Range Rover. Last but not least, I would like to say that we have not yet mentioned the dynamics of the car. We have not yet mentioned the technologies which are embedded in the new Range Rover. Here again, it's a complete new story. That would be my comments.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Thierry. Next question is from Amyn Pirani, JP Morgan. Your India PV business, and Shailesh is probably coming your way. Your India PV business seems to be largely immune to chip shortages. Given the volatility of the situation, how are you looking at the supply situation going forward? One. And second, on PE margins, as you start getting closer to a run rate of 500,000 per annum, is it possible to achieve double-digit EBITDA margin?

Shailesh Chandra
President of Passenger and Electric Vehicle Business, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles

Yeah, Balaji, I'll take this. We are definitely not immune to the crisis, which is, you know, global. We have been taking some very innovative steps to really mitigate some of the adverse impact otherwise which could have been, and we have been doing better than the industry. These actions, which have been, you know, some of the actions which also got presented in JLR, which was, you know, working closely with the semiconductor suppliers as well as the tier one electronic component suppliers. Trying to see where we can convert, you know, very application-specific chips to more standard chips.

We have also gone for optimization of chips, which was about reducing the usage of chips and validating them in a very short period of time, which unleashed, you know, potential of, you know, available. Because allocation from the tier one suppliers are very rule-based, and therefore we cannot get any allocation more than what comes as per the formula that they have. By optimizing the chip in certain components, we have been able to do better. We have taken certain calls in terms of trim mix and all. All this has a combination of all these measures that we have taken has helped us perform better as compared to the industry. Going forward, as I said, that it is going to remain slightly precarious.

We'll deal with the situation and it's given. I mean, we have to consider this as given situation, and we have to continuously work every month to see how we can take all kind of mitigation steps to avoid that, and we'll continue to do that, and hopefully we'll continue to perform better than the industry. As far as Adjusted EBITDA is concerned, as we scale up our business, our target as well as aspiration is that we move towards double-digit Adjusted EBITDA. That is the direction which we are working towards. I already talked about it in the presentation.

There are eight to nine levers to improve our Adjusted EBITDA, and we'll be working consistently on each of these levers, and I'm very hopeful that we'll, in the next few years, we should be touching the double-digit Adjusted EBITDA.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Shailesh. Next one is from Kapil Singh, Nomura. For JLR, does the H2 FY 2022 guidance imply less than 200,000 volumes, and about GBP 250 million of EBIT? Will the consumers or the customers wait for that long, or is there a risk of the customers who have done multiple bookings to move on to other OEMs?

The second question coming in. Adrian, why don't you take this one, then we can. I'll come to the next question on the same point.

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

No, it doesn't imply either of those things, actually. I'm not gonna give you a volume number at this point, for sure. What was the second part of the question, Ed? Can you move to the question please?

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Yes. It was on EBIT, INR 250 million EBIT. Or will customers wait that long on your 125,000 order book that you have?

Thierry Bolloré
CEO, Jaguar Land Rover

There's several ways of answering this, I think. I think don't be fooled to think that, competitor dealerships are full of vehicles either. I think BMW probably are an outlier at the moment. Go to a Daimler dealership, you won't find many vehicles either. It's not just us, it's an industry and across industry phenomena that you have today. I've mentioned the cancellation point, very, very few. I've mentioned the VME levels that we're closing existing deals on, the lowest in a generation. All of the information sets that we have doesn't give us a concern about order cancellation. It gives us a concern about speed to actually support those orders in place, and that will continue over the next several quarters. I wouldn't try and overthink this. There's a chronic supply shortage to all industries, including automotive.

You know, one of the consequences of that is order banks are growing, VME is lower, and customers are just being more patient than they would otherwise need to be. That's what's happening, and that's what will continue to happen over the next several quarters.

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

In the meantime, we're reducing our break-even point, so we'll be profitable sooner and strongly profitable afterwards, after supply has returned. That's what's happening here.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

An additional question, the same from Kapil Singh again, Adrian. Can you talk about why gross margins have fallen QoQ despite strong mix and low VME? Is there f urther risk to gross margins as mix and VME normalizes next year?

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

Yeah, of course. Yeah. It's an aberration. Don't forget quarter two last year, we were just building back. If you remember, the first region to build back was China. We did have a very rich China mix last year. We were profitable on just 73,000 wholesales, and our break-even point was 100,000. It tells you a really rich mix. I think 19% of our vehicles in Q2 last year were headed to and wholesaled in China. It was 13% this year. It's mostly the aberration of last year's data than this year's data. Again, if you're looking for corroboratory evidence, the average GVR this quarter was 61,000. Above 61,000 is a rich mix. Hence why we're setting our break-even point to the lower and lowering in quarter three.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Yeah. Thanks, Adrian. Question from Prateek Poddar on Nippon AMC. Many congratulations on the launch of new RR. Can you qualitatively talk about the response to the new RR, similar to what we did when Defender was launched? Another thing. Sorry, Thierry, maybe I'll wait for this question. I'll hand it to you.

Thierry Bolloré
CEO, Jaguar Land Rover

Hello. Yeah, we are just looking at your question. At the moment, we don't have all data. You know, we have some data, of course, of the first orders of this car. It's very clear that the level of success and the reception of the car, which is just extraordinary, I can tell you, even superior, according to our team, to Defender, is giving us a lot of confidence that this new Range Rover is going to be much better than the actual one, which is already a bestseller till the end of its life. We are absolutely confident that we are going to perform much better than we had envisioned, thanks to the welcoming and the success we can already see of the new Range Rover.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Thierry. Adrian, this coming your way. You already had answered on the volumes for second half, but you said you're not gonna comment on volumes. On a qualitative basis, with the launch of new RR, will quality of sales further improve? That is higher ASPs, average selling price, and margins.

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

In a post-normalized world, they will be higher than they would have in a pre-COVID world, yes. If that helps.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Okay.

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

The next two quarters or so are gonna be obviously impacted by which cars we can build and sell. The data's not really trend data over the next couple of quarters.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Yeah. Thanks. Shailesh, this coming your way. Lastly, on the PV division in India, with the launch of new Punch, will market shares further improve from what was seen in Q2?

Shailesh Chandra
President of Passenger and Electric Vehicle Business, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles

Undoubtedly, you know, we are going to see an increase in market share. We expect that this month itself, we would have gained by delta 2%, which is 200 basis points, is what we are expecting, as compared to where we were in Q2. It all depends on, you know, how well we are able to manage the semiconductor shortage. So far we have been able to do well, but definitely nowhere close to the potential what we could have sold. We would be 75% of, you know, what potentially we should be selling. I'm very confident that there will be a significant increase in market share to the extent of 200 basis points.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Shailesh. Next question is from Nitish Mangal, Jefferies. On India CVs, Girish, this coming your way. How are you thinking on further price hikes and passing commodity cost pressures? And how do you see the next upcycle margin versus the past cycle peaks?

Girish Wagh
Executive Director, Tata Motors

Yeah. Nitish, I think we have been tracking the commodity increases pretty closely. Despite a significant price increase when we migrated from BS4 to BS6, from first October of last year, we have been consistently taking a price increase every quarter. While the pass through has not been complete as of now, I think as we see the demand improving going ahead, we will see the realizations also improving. At the same time, I think if the commodity pressures continue, we'll continue to increase the prices, number one. Number two, in terms of margins, see, I think we should see better EBITDA margins for given contributions as we go ahead with respect to the previous peaks, because the realization per vehicle has gone up significantly in the BS6 era. That's what we see going ahead.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thanks, Shailesh. Adrian, this coming your way. On JLR, how do you see your emission costs across four key markets in calendar year 2022?

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

Let me remind everybody, for the U.K., European, regions, we have a compliant demand portfolio. That will continue into next year. We just need to be able to build more of those PHEV units. When we show you presentations going forward in terms of PHEV mixes, we expect those to grow, and we will be compliant in CY 2022 if we can build them. For China and U.S. of A, obviously the mix of our vehicles in those regions are significantly skewed towards Range Rover, Range Rover Sport. Therefore, we will need to continue to buy credit offsets, which we'll be working with other OEMs in those markets to do so.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thank you. Thanks, Adrian. Next question is from Nishit Jha. In India business, is the impact of under recovery of rising RM cost pressures much higher in CVs compared to PVs? Answer is yes. Steel intensity by design is higher in CVs compared to PVs. Any change in high single-digit EBITDA margin guidance in PVs over the medium term, given the strong performance? Let's first reach the high single-digit EBITDA margin. We are on a journey, and once we reach there, we'll reassess it. Would rather deliver first before we talk. Second from... Just one minute, please. Nishant Vyas, ICICI Securities. The CJLR entity has witnessed improvement in operating margins. Can you elaborate more on the drivers of the same, and how we should think about these margins in the medium term? Adrian?

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

CJLR, we're now operating in the way we were operating in broader JLR over the last two years. It's a two pronged strategy. One is improvement on sales quality, which is making sure that we reduce supply. Of course, semiconductors have helped us with that. We have seen a seven point improvement in terms of the discounts, i.e., reduced discounts being offered in the marketplace. They're still higher than import business, but they're down to 22.5%-23% today. We expect that to continue going forward because we won't oversupply into the marketplace once semiconductors get taken away as a restriction. Beyond. That's what we call quality of sale.

Beyond that, I think I've mentioned on earlier calls, we did formally introduce the Project Charge program to CJLR at the back end of our quarter four, and therefore structural costs are falling. Investment is a little bit lower, so the whole of the program is being applied. I do expect break-even points also to reduce going forward at CJLR. They're 12 months-18 months behind the import business and the broad JLR business, but those tools and operations are now being used in the local business also.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Question from, probably the last question and we are on the hour, from Joseph George. You had guided for 60,000-65,000 for JLR ex China JV in second quarter. Would you give a similar guidance in third quarter? Adrian, would you wanna take that or you want me to take that?

Adrian Mardell
CFO, Jaguar Land Rover

You take that, PB Balaji, if you don't mind.

P.B. Balaji
Group CFO, Tata Motors

Thank you. I think we have said we are gradually wanting to improve from here on, so we think the worst is behind us. The reason why we wouldn't want to put a number on this was that was a very sharp correction we had to do, and therefore we put a number out there. Going into third quarter, definitely both production, wholesales, will definitely be better than what we see in second quarter. That's something that we are reassured of. Let it work its way through. That's what we would say. With this, I would like to first thank all of you for your patient hearing and wish you and your families a very happy Diwali. Do stay safe.

Of course, thank the team both in JLR and in Tata Motors here for the time that you spent. Thanks a lot. Stay safe, and speak to you soon. Take care.

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