Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Harmish Desai from PhillipCapital India Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you.
Thank you, Myron. Good evening, and welcome to the fourth quarter and full year FY 2024 earnings call of Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals Limited, hosted by PhillipCapital. From the management, we have Mr. S.C. Mehta, Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. Deepak Rastogi, President and Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Tarun Sinha, President, Technical Ammonium Nitrate, and Mrs. Pallavi Bhai, Head, Investor Relations. I would like to thank the management for giving us the opportunity to host this call. We will begin the call with opening remarks from Mr. Mehta, followed by Mr. Deepak Rastogi for update on financial performance, post which we'll have a Q&A session. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Harmish. Is my voice okay?
It's fine, sir. Yeah.
Okay. So, very good afternoon to all of you. I extend a very warm welcome to each of you for joining us in the Q4 and full year earnings conference call of Deepak Fertilisers. Our earnings presentation and the press release have been updated on the company's website, as well as on the stock exchange, and I do hope you have had a chance to review it. But let me share with you a few of my observations and the broad comments. So we've just completed our board meeting, where we reviewed the consolidated results of the Q4 as well as the year. And I was sharing with the board that this year we faced very strong headwinds in all the three of our businesses. And such a negative triple effect is rather rare.
Generally it doesn't happen, but we did face, you know, headwinds in all our businesses. For instance, in case of mining chemicals TAN business, there was a strong short-term aberration of dumping of cheap fertilizer-grade ammonium nitrate in large quantities from Russia. In our industrial chemicals, again, we faced a short-term aberration emerging out of cheap Chinese nitroaromatics, which impacted our downstream acid customers. Whereas in the fertilizer business, in the crop nutrition business, we faced some unusually low and erratic rains last year and almost a drought-like situation in some of the states where we operate. Along with this, there was also a certain degree of micromanagement of products and prices by the government, keeping in view the short-term orientation. Additionally, we also had to take two rather heavy financial hits.
Namely, one being that there was a one-time large subsidy hit that we had to accommodate, and the other being, you know, emerging from our new ammonia plant stabilization costs. Now all these headwinds were pretty strong and impactful, and yet, if I look at the last year, and I look at the last Q4, see, when we look at our Q4 EBITDA margins, and we compare it with Q4s of the last five years, the Q4 2024 EBITDA margin of 21% is indeed among the highest, other than the 24% we had clocked in, in an unusually good FY 2022. Second, is the TAN mining chemical business delivered second highest volume in its history. The IPA business bounced back at 144% year-on-year. Our crop-specific Croptek fertilizer grew by 11%.
Looking at all these aspects and the fundamental trends, ICRA reaffirmed our long-term and short-term ratings. Taking cognizance of all of this in the board meeting, after due deliberations, the board has also recommended 85% dividends. If you were to ask me in one word, to explain our, the year that went by and our operations, the only word that comes to my mind is resilience. That our businesses have shown great resilience to all the headwinds that we face, and unusual, like I said, the headwinds that came on all the three businesses. Having said that, now going forward, let me share some of the dimensions and interesting dimensions that I'm seeing.
Going forward, number one, with our ammonia plant, the new ammonia plant, now stabilized, because we have just completed also the guarantee test run, and with its running rated capacity and with globally best efficiency norms, this will make our value chain rock solid. The second, as you would have heard, that we have tied up a very attractive formula-based 15-year LNG contract with the Norwegian giants, and this will bring a complete upstream stability. So right from LNG, ammonia, building block, nitric acid to all the downstream. So the whole value chain will be rock solid. Third, I would share is that our TAN mining chemical expansion project at Gopalpur, it is, you know, going to capitalize not only on our 40 years of proven capability in that space, but also on the hugely growing coal, limestone, infra sectors linked to the India growth story.
Fourth, the new nitric acid project that we have taken up, again, leveraging on our 40 years history and a large capacity already underwritten by our customer under a long-term contract, will bring another risk mitigated, attractive project. Additionally, you would have heard that we have just recently signed a 7-year strategic commercial alliance contract with a global leader in specialty fertilizer, namely Haifa, and this will speed up our journey in the very attractive specialty fertilizer sector. Additionally, I'm happy to share that the IMD's forecast for this year is a good monsoon, and this will support all the sectors, especially our crop nutrition business. And last but not the least, our continued relentless drive to move from commodity to holistic solutions continues with full vigor, and we are seeing step-by-step beautiful success.
This is something that we are pushing, as you are aware, in all the three of our businesses, namely the building block, industrial chemicals, the crop nutrition business, and the third is the mining chemicals business. All the three being beautifully aligned with the India growth story. Going forward, we are of course, looking forward to very positive tailwinds to support each of our businesses. With these opening remarks, let me now hand you over to our CFO, Mr. Deepak Rastogi, who can take you through the detailed financials and also respond to your queries. Deepak?
Yeah. Thank you, Mr. Mehta. Thank you so much.
Yeah, thank you.
Can you hear me loud and clear, please? Okay. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining the Deepak Fertilisers And Petrochemicals Corporation Limited conference call to discuss the Quarter Four and Financial Year 2024 results. I'm delighted to share the highlights of our performance during Q4 and for the full fiscal year. During Q4, our total operating revenue is INR 2,086 crores, with an operating EBITDA of INR 438 crores, which is 21%, an increase of 421 basis points YOY and 575 basis points, you know, quarter on quarter. The net profit for the quarter is INR 220 crores versus 64.61 crores for the same quarter last year.
Similarly, for the fiscal year, the operating revenue is INR 8,676 crores and an operating EBITDA of INR 1,287 crores. Despite headwinds, our revenue and operating EBITDA have shown a consistent upward trajectory over the past couple of years. Barring the adjustments of one-time subsidy and the ramping of cost, which was taken because of our new ammonia plant, our operating EBITDA margins would have been around 18.3% instead of 14.8%, which we have actually underscoring our operational efficiency. Moving to our business performance, in our mining chemicals business, which is the TAN, technical grade ammonium nitrate, the sales volume grew by 26% and 36% during Q4, and you know, 39%, you know, quarter-on-quarter. Driven by improved demand, and obviously, you know, as you heard Mr.
Mehta saying that this year, for, especially for Q2 and Q3, we actually saw imports in large quantities from Russia. And, you know, we saw that coming down, especially in Q4. Similarly, AN melt sales volume reached all-time high in Q4, marking substantial growth both year-on-year as well as quarter-on-quarter basis. Despite head challenges, TAN volumes grew marginally year-on-year basis, reaching second highest sales volume in our company's history. Highest, you know, was sometimes in 2018, 2019. The capacity utilization for our TAN business was close to almost 101% for the quarter and 92% for the year. As I mentioned earlier, the first two, the first quarter was very strong for the TAN business. However, due to excessive imports of fertilizer-grade ammonium nitrate during Q2 and Q4, saw margin and obviously volume pressures.
From Q4, the demand has improved and, you know, obviously, stabilized, stabilized and improved, and there was gradual reduction in Russian imports. We have started TAN exports from March 2024 onwards, once the ban has lifted during the year. Growth in demand is expected to continue for the next fiscal, which is 2024-25, because the coal mining, power, infrastructure, all the sectors are expected to grow between 10%-12%. In the industrial chemical business, nitric acid faced challenges in Q4, primarily due to our extended shutdown of our Dahej plant, whereas our IPA sales continued to perform well, with significant volume growth of 27% QoQ, and 6% volume growth YOY.
For the full year, nitric acid sales remained similar to previous year, despite subdued demand from downstream industries caused by imports of cheaper nitroaromatics from China, impacting the margins of our nitric acid business and volumes temporarily. The capacity utilization of our nitric acid business was close to 82% for the quarter and 86% for the full year. The capacity utilization of our IPA business was approximately a hundred and two percent for the quarter and 87% for the full year. Going forward, nitric acid prices are expected to remain stable and improve over a few quarters. RGP, which is propylene-based IPA, would continue to perform better from both demand and price perspective. Crop nutrition business, despite the lower and irregular rainfall, had impacted the Rabi crop in Q4 of, you know, this year.
Our specialty products, Croptek and Smartek sales volume actually increased by 11% and 10% YOY. For the full fiscal, bulk self-fertilizer sales grew by almost 1%, despite unfavorable seasonal conditions and decline in margins due to mainly attributable to the subsidy impact, which, you know, which we took in H1, amounting INR 267 crore during the year. Our bulk manufacturing capacity utilization was close to 58% for the quarter and 55% for the full year. With IMD forecasting above average rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season, we expect a favorable kharif and rabi season. DFPCL ammonia plant is running at 90% plus capacity utilization after PGTR in January 2024. The project has received an ultra mega project certification, eligibility certificate, and has started accruing state incentives.
During the fiscal, we have also entered into 15 years long-term gas supply agreement with Equinor, commencing in May 2026. This move is expected to ensure greater stability in overall business. ICRA has reaffirmed DFPCL as well as AMIL long-term credit rating to AA- with stable outlook, and short-term credit rating is also reaffirmed at A1+, which is the highest rating. CRISIL has recently assigned a short-term rating of A1+ to DFPCL and AMIL, which is again the highest rating in the short-term order. As on 31st of March, there is no encumbrance of any kind on promoters holding. Further, the board has recommended a dividend of INR 8.50 per equity share of INR 10, which is 85%. Now, I would like to open the floor for questions and answers. Over to you, moderator. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on your touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Ladies and gentlemen, we wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We have the first question on the line of Jatin Damania from SVAN Investments. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. Sir, I have a couple of questions. Firstly, on the ammonia front, now, when you say that our plant has been stabilized and the cost has been largely factored in, so how does one look at the profitability in the ammonia business, given the current pricing dynamics?
You have... You know, you are done with the question?
Yes, sir. Done with the question on ammonia. The second on the-
...Yeah, yeah. This question is for the financial year 2024, 2025, is what I would expect, right?
Yes, sir.
You know, obviously, the way we are looking at it is that the ammonia pricing for this year, you know, based on the forecast which we have received from multiple agencies, you know, that should be around $400-$450, you know, during the year. At this point in time, you know, it's close to $310, which I'm talking about FOB ME.
Mm.
So, we expect that the business to do well, if you know, ammonia pricing continues to be, you know, at a similar level. But I can also tell you that the ammonia plant does not have to actually worry about how the, you know, obviously, ammonia prices are, because we have a gas contract, and the manufacturing price of... Based on the input prices of the gas, actually determine the cost price, and eventually, the selling price is based on the ammonia pricing, which is the IPP pricing. So having said that, you know, we are optimistic and expect, you know, a good, you know, year for the business.
Yeah, but sir, if you look at the current level of the pricing and our long-term contract is going to start in the next 18 months. So given the current level of the pricing of $400-$450, are we be able to make any money on the ammonia, or on the EBITDA level, we will be breaking even, or we'll be operating at a loss?
So you have actually, you know, if you were to see our Q4 results, we have actually made, you know, obviously, money during that particular quarter at an EBITDA level. So even at the, you know, so effectively, overall, we have made money in Q4, which is, you know, for the current year, and that is what we expect, you know, going forward as well. Obviously, you know, there are certain ranges which basically would continue, because there will always be variability in terms of gas pricing as well as ammonia pricing. So if they continue to move in sync, obviously, you know, there is no reason.
And the other thing which I would want to tell, which, I keep reminding the investors on the investors call, is that, you know, we have actually invested this plant for 25 years. So this is not a quarter-on-quarter investment or a year-on-year investment. And some quarters may be very, very good, some quarters may not be good, do good. But from an overall financial perspective, the plant will obviously be making money over a period of time. So there is absolutely no doubt, and in our mind, that, you know, this is a good investment.
Sir, how much is ammonia contributed to the overall revenue and the profitability in the last quarter?
You know, last quarter, the revenue was close to around INR 600 crore.
Okay. Sir, second question. Now, in the initial remarks, you indicated that we are going with the 2 of our project, one is the TAN and another nitric acid. So if you take the total CapEx, that will be accumulating will be total of INR 4,000 crore. And currently, we have a debt of about 4,500 crore on the book. So how are we going to fund this CapEx? Because if you look at the current profitability, it seems that the debt will further inch up from the current level during the time the contract on the ammonia or the profitability of some the ammonia doesn't improve.
So you know, the net debt, you know, which we ended for this year, is close to INR 3,300 crores, and it is not INR 4,500 crores, as what you suggested. The second thing is that, you know, during this year, ammonia plant, the EBITDA was not for full year. Obviously, we had some ramping up challenges also. So we expect that, you know, the EBITDA would grow. As far as the funding needs are concerned, we have already tied up the funding for our Gopalpur project, which is around INR 2,200 crores. So, you know, it's already done and dusted. We have got the approvals in place from the banks.
As far as the Dahej is concerned, which is, you know, our, expansion plan, there we have, you know, looking at to invest close to INR 1,950 crores. And there also, the bridge funding is in place today. So we don't expect that, you know, we will have a challenge in terms of funding. But overall, you know, we expect with the businesses, you know, when the businesses like this year, we had huge amount of headwinds during the whole year. And in a normal year, obviously, the EBITDA would actually be far more higher than what we have, we would expect, and hence we are very confident that, we should be able to basically take into, you know, take these, you know, investments into account. The other thing is that-
Mm.
that unless and until we are ready for future, you know, we will not be having the leadership position either in the TAN business or in nitric acid. So, you know, we have we are, deliberately doing front-end investments to ensure that we continue to serve our customers whenever the demand comes in, which is basically around the corner with the economy, you know, doubling over a period of 2-3 years now, and for our own captive demands. So this is a requirement, and obviously, it will, you know, expand our EBITDA, you know, once the plants start to come up to speed.
... So, sir, post the completion of both our projects, which is the TAN and the nitric, what will be the peak debt that we are looking at it?
So, you know, we, we would be in a very comfortable zone. You know, that's how the, you know, the rating agencies have looked through those numbers as well as the banks, then they have actually provided us the long-term funding for us. So we would be in a comfortable zone, is what I can tell you right now.
Sure, sir. That's all from my side. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you. Participants are requested to kindly restrict your questions to two per participant. Participants are requested to kindly restrict your questions to two per participant. We have the next question from the line of Janhavi Prabhu from Equitas Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening, sir. So my first question was on TAN. Since we've started exporting TAN since March, what would be the export mix that we're expecting this year?
So, you know, so effectively, you mean to say 24, 25? So there is a-
Yeah.
limit to which the companies can actually export.
Mm-hmm.
So the quota which we have got is around 20,000 tons for the whole year. And obviously, you know, our, you know, we sell during the year close to almost 500,000 or 550,000 tons a year. So... But slowly, we expect that the government is able to relax these quotas so that we are able to export far more higher than what the current quota is today.
Right, sir. Understood. And, sir, my second question would be on nitric acid. So the plant that is coming up for nitric acid, are we still on track to commence, you know, commercialize it till H2 2026? And what is the CapEx that we've done so far in terms of cash?
So, you know, yes, we are in a, you know, on track to deliver the project on time, which is H2 of 2026. The second question is in terms of CapEx, you know, we have just started just, you know, incurring the expenses now. So last year, we incurred close to around INR 16 crore, you know, last year. And, and accordingly, because, you know, you have to just only pay, you have to pay, overall, once, you know, you have, you are signing up for the purchase orders and all. So it's a very minimal amount right now, but overall, the project cost is far more higher than what we have already committed. And, this amount would actually increase this year at a much more faster pace.
Okay. So how much of the amount are we planning to incur in the current year?
Maybe around, you know, close to almost 40% of the overall project cost is what I would expect.
Thank you, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Ranjit from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, sir. Thanks for taking my question. First of all, congratulations on such a resilient performance in 4Q, despite weak ammonia pricing. The first question is on the chemical business. We have seen a bit of a strong improvement sequentially, and I believe this is largely, led by TAN business, wherein we have seen initially, cheaper imports coming and hitting us hard. But, later on, I think in the last couple of months, what we have seen, the imports have significantly reduced and is coming down to virtually to zero imports. Just wanted to understand what's happening on the TAN business front, why suddenly we are seeing lower intensity of imports, and how sustainable this would be getting into FY 25.
So, Ranjit, you know, I think it's a very good question. There are two, three things which is happening. First of all, you know, obviously, we always understood that this is just a short-term aberration, overall. And the first reason which we basically understand is that the Russian government has actually banned the export from St. Petersburg, straight away, you know, because of the ongoing war with Ukraine, and because it's explosive, so hence, you know, they have banned it, and hence there is obviously a little movement, you know, from Russia perspective.
The other thing is that, the reason why actually there were a lot of imports last year was that Russia actually exports fertilizer-grade ammonium nitrate to Brazil, and generally, their export is close to 1.4 million-1.5 million tons every year. Last year, we noticed that only 1.1 million tons have actually reached Brazil, and all the other products has come through in India, which means, you know, it made its way to India. There are obviously reasons because of the lower sales, you know, lower rains, and because of that, you know, fertilizer business not doing well. The other is that AN pricing itself was lower. And, you know, AN as well as urea, they are actually used as surrogate, you know, or ammonium sulfate and things like that.
So the farmer has the capability to utilize whichever is the cheaper product. So we are thinking that, you know, because of the rain effect and obviously the price effect, the product has come in, which, in our view, will not recur year-on-year basis, and hence, you know, we don't expect, you know, this to happen, you know, in a large sum. You know, there is always an import which happens, because almost 20% of the TAN demands are fulfilled by the imports, and we expect that to continue. That should not affect us.
However, what has happened was that, you know, the quantity which used to come in the full year, you know, it actually made its way within 2-3 quarters, and that is where with obviously a pricing, which was slightly more prohibitive, and hence, you know, it created some, you know, short-term challenge. But, you know, we hope that, you know, we are, you know, and rather we are confident that we are out of it now.
So the ban from Russia should be effective for CY 2024? Is that the right way to understand?
Yeah, yeah, I think so. You know, we are expecting, you know, because they have, you know, now they have extended. Previously, the ban was for 2-3 months, but now they have actually unlimited the ban now, given the, you know, war situation in that region.
So the profitability in TAN business should sustain the fourth quarter as well?
So we are expecting that, you know, sustainability... Look, you know, as far as the profitability is concerned, TAN, you know, it has, except for the 2020-2023, which was a positive aberration.
Right.
If I were to take that away, I think, you know, from a profitability perspective, it has not impacted. You know, there is always a variability between ±100 basis points, but, you know, it has moved within that range. So we expect to be stable and, you know, continue to be in an improving trend.
Right. Thank you, sir. And second question is on the ammonia plant. So earlier, in the last quarter, we have kind of a guided for $100-$120 kind of a spreads. So, will you be able to achieve that, even during the fourth Q, given the low ammonia prices?
So, you know, ammonia prices, if they go down, you know, beyond a particular level, obviously, you know, then the spread goes away, because there is a cost of production. And, you know, as I said last time, you know, if the, prices stay between $425-$475 FOB ME, obviously, you know, then there is a spread. But the, the lower the obviously value comes in, like, you know, so like last quarter, the ammonia was close to around $410-$425. You know, that was the range. So we would have some lesser obviously spread, but we will always make money. And, you know, it came down to around $300, you know, recently. It's moving up.
You know, we expect, you know, this to go up to almost $350-$400 in the next quarter again. So that is the range, and it will stabilize between $450-$475. If you were to take the last 10 years' history, you would find in almost 70%-75% of the time, it ranges between $450-$475. That is how, you know, it has played out, but in between, there has been some variability, which, as I said, you know, we are confident that, you know, this ups and downs would continue to happen, and we will go through this course of, you know.
Right, sir. As you rightly pointed out, despite that, we reported profit in ammonia plant during the fourth Q at the EBITDA level.
Yes.
Some bookkeeping data points, if possible, if you can give that one, what has been the average gas cost during the quarter? And, the incentives that we have recognized, was it for the full year or for the quarter, and if we can quantify that. Thank you.
So, you know, we basically have taken the, you know, incentives for the full year, because that is how the incentives are. So we have recognized for the full year. The second thing is that as far as the gas is concerned, it was closer to almost INR 313.3-INR 313.5. You know, that's the range, you know, it has actually hovered most of the time.
Can you quantify the incentives?
You know, it is closer to, you know, maybe around 75 to 80 to 89 crores, effectively.
Right. And this should rise as we increase our production at the ammonia plant.
So, which basically... So the more actually, the more, you know, the production will be, the sales will be, obviously, this incentive... So generally, we are expecting this incentive to be paid out over a period of 20 years, and the total amount of incentives which will be paid will be close to INR 4,000 crores. So if I were to just simply do it equally, it is INR 200 crores every year. But obviously every year, based on the demand-supply situation, the numbers will change. But this is how the numbers would look like going forward.
Sir, we had the impression was that this was to be paid out over in 8 years. Now you are saying it will be 20 years.
So, you know, it also depends upon how the ammonia pricing is behaving, apart from obviously the-
Right
... production which we do and sales and all. So if the ammonia prices goes up, obviously, you know, it can be paid far more earlier than what we expect.
Yes, sir, but we are kind of confident the entire CapEx will be recovered. That's-
Oh, yes, for sure. You know, it's no-brainer. Only thing is that, you know, you take from a money-to-money perspective, you know, the government has already given us the eligibility certification that, you know, we are eligible for it. We have to just prove that this much of the taxes as far as, you know, state, you know, GSTs we have paid, which will get actually reimbursed back to us.
Going forward, we will recognize this on a quarterly basis?
We will do it, obviously. You know, we will do it on a periodic basis now.
Right. Cool. And one final thing. In a couple of years' time, we now have a net debt of around the funds that we have said. How and where do you see this couple of years down the line, given that we have two large CapEx, probably a five to-
So, so you know, we always see the net debt to EBITDA, effectively, or even net debt to EBITDA, as opposed to just counting the, you know, money as a gross debt and this thing. As I said earlier, we will be in a comfortable zone because we will also not take, obviously, steps which will create challenges for our own sake. So we always play out... In fact, you would have seen that only when we are, we are actually, you know, got comfortable with our ammonia, that, you know, it's getting, capitalized and, you know, the start of production. We then actually, said that we are going ahead with our nitric acid, expansion plan. So we always take those calls to ensure that we are in a comfortable zone from a leverage perspective.
And we will continue to be in a comfortable zone going forward because the EBITDA is going to increase wherever we are today. But the debt will not increase beyond a particular point, because there are only a few projects which we are doing it. Unless until, obviously, you know, there are new things which come up. But, you know, after two years, you know, this will also started throwing a lot of EBITDA, you know, going forward. So we will always be in a comfortable range. And that is one of the reasons why the rating agencies and the banks have been comfortable, you know, giving us debt as well as obviously reaffirming the rating which we have got.
Thank you, sir. Thank you for patiently answering all the questions.
Thank you.
Thank you. We have the next question on the line of Narendra from Robo Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on the resilient quarter. So my first question is regarding the ammonia prices. So do we expect them to go to about $400 or $425 in Q2, Q3?
Yeah, the answer is yes. You know, from Q3 onwards, you know, it should touch, you know, 400+, is what we are looking at right now.
Okay. Okay. And the volumes should be fairly strong, right? Similar to the current quarter's volumes, right?
So, you know, we actually almost 80% of the volumes get captively consumed, so we don't have an issue in terms of the volumes at all. That is number one. Second thing is that, you know, purely from production perspective, you know, the plant is now after PGTR, which is a performance guarantee test run. We have already, you know, the plant is running at designed capacity, which is 100% plus. It actually is capable to run even more than 100% now. The second thing is that, you know, even the norms, the gas norms, you know, the design norms, so it is meeting all the design norms. So the more, obviously, the volumes are, the better off for the plant is, and then the plant is capable to obviously handle it.
Okay. Okay, understood. What kind of utilizations could we see in the crop nutrition segment and also the nitric acid specialty?
So nitric acid is always, you know, nitric is almost 100% all the time, you know, purely from a nitric acid perspective. And, you know, last year, because we had some challenges in terms of, you know, the plant shutdowns, and hence, you know, the, the nitric acid in few quarters, especially, you know, the last quarter, we saw some, challenges, and hence the capacity utilization was lower. As far as CNA business is concerned, we would be close to almost, you know, like last year, we delivered around 50, 58%, you know, for Q4, and you know, 55% for the whole year, with so much of, challenges in terms of the irregularity of rains which were there.
Going forward, given that, you know, it will be, you know, the monsoon is expected to be normal, hence, you know, we expect, you know, the utilization should go up to around 60%-70%, depending upon which quarter we are talking about, even higher than that, because we have capacity to produce, and, we should be able to basically make good use of that. Except, you know, in good days, we have even done, 75%-80% also.
All right. All right. Given the positive sentiment, right, so, the Q4 margins that we have of 21%, so is that sustainable? And what could be the whole year number in, for 2025?
So we don't give a future, you know, basically forecast, you know, or estimates for the current, you know, the upcoming year. But I can tell you that, when we are able to sustain the... I would say, when all the businesses had challenges, when we are able to sustain the business at that level, in a normal year, obviously, you can expect that it should at least be at le- that level or better than that.
Okay, great, great. And one last question: so the expansion project, right, the Gopalpur first and the Dahej expansion. So when are these expected to come on board?
...So they both are actually expected to come upstream, in H2 of 2026.
Okay. Okay, both of them, right?
Yeah, both of them, yes.
Okay. Okay. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Nirav Jimudia from Anvil Research. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. So my question is on the nitric acid business. So if I see our capacities for WNA and CNA, they are, like, close to around 8.5, 2.3 lakh tons respectively. So just wanted to understand from you, like, after consuming our WNA for our CNA as well as for ANP, do we have some extra WNA which we sold in the market? Or everything what we've been reporting in our quarterly numbers is more of a CNA numbers, and it doesn't include the WNA numbers.
No, actually, you know, the sales of CNA is, you know, obviously purely from, assets perspective. So CNA sales for, you know, like last year. So overall, you know, it will be close to almost 30% or more than that. That actually is the sales of, you know, CNA. You know, which basically gets sold.
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah. And WNA sales is actually, I'll just tell you. So WNA sales is also, very similar, effectively, because the other, because the other products, whatever is not sold outside, you know. So the way it is, is that almost we can consume 100% capacity, you know, captively, to be very honest with you. And depending upon how the demands actually grow business by business, we actually have to import also at times, you know, to ensure that we are able to meet the customer demands which are outside. You know, last year we did it, we are doing this year as well. So, we have our own demands as well as obviously, you know, outside demands, which we meet to ensure that, you know, we are, you know, obviously serving all the customers we have.
So, you know, overall, so it's almost 30% sales, which we have made out to outside customers, you know, in both these segments, closer to that.
When we say that we have imported nitric acid, that is predominantly the WNA which we have imported and not the CNA, because it becomes difficult to import CNA at times.
Logistically, actually, nitric acid imports are obviously because it's a hazardous thing. It's always, the WNA, which is weak nitric acid, which is imported.
Required ammonia for our WNA plant. Earlier we had a lesser capacity of ammonia, but with the commissioning of new plant, are we able to use that ammonia plant for our WNA plant, or we still need to import the ammonia for that WNA?
No. You know, we have self-sufficient, you know, ammonia with us, with the existing capacities we have. And, we don't have an issue. Once the Gopalpur plant comes in, we, at that point in time, we may need to think about it, because the volumes would go up, obviously, significantly then.
Correct. So one of the statements you also mentioned that Nitric Acid was not doing well because the downstreams were not doing well, the customers on the customer side. So more recently, because the freight rates have gone up, the container rates have gone up, are we seeing some inquiries on the increase side from the customers for the Nitric Acid business, whereby those imported materials from the customer side are not happening and that could possibly drive our Nitric Acid sales?
So we don't have an issue from a demand perspective, that is number one. There was absolutely not an issue from a demand perspective. What happens in these scenarios are that, you know, the margins come slightly under pressure.
Correct.
As far as we are concerned, you know, even the margins were not at, you know, was not so bad, you know, rather not so depressed. And it is, you are right in saying that, you know, the logistics cost has gone up, but those logistics costs have gone up towards the Black Sea, Red Sea and those kind of European regions where there is a war. There, actually, we see much more of freight because, you know, some of the routes are, the shipping lines don't take those routes, and they take a longer route to actually get the goods towards Asia and all. But, you know, this is, this is competition, competitive, you know, throughout, you know, when we have started this business, and this continues. So sometimes it may get slightly more intense than lesser one.
That's all. But otherwise, you know, the imports continues. It is always, you know, there is a parity between the imported price versus the domestic price. But I can tell you that, we are actually very highly competitive pricing, even from China perspective also, it does not actually hit. You know, this year, because China actually had exported the nitroaromatics, not nitric acid, but they have actually-
Nitroaromatics, I was talking about because from-
Yeah, yeah. So what has happened is that they have actually exported because they have enough capacity. The demand is not there in China. Their export demand has vanished, and hence, they were just trying to dump, you know, which is, which is very, very cheap. Our customers also were finding to run their own plants at a cost competitive, because, you know, imports were far more cheaper compared to their running their own capacity. So few months we saw that, but, you know, those days are over now. The imports have come down, the nitric acid, as I said, you know, pricing has actually stabilized, and, it will continue, but few quarters may be up and down. So, but overall, on a long-run perspective, I don't think so that, you know, we have an issue.
So one thing here, let's say, hypothetically, if ammonia prices starts going up, and we do produce ammonia for our WNA, because some of the other players are also expanding the capacities of, nitric acid in India, the relevant demand may or may not go up to that extent, the way the capacities are being deployed on. So at times, can we enter into that sort of trade-offs, where, those ammonia could be more profitable to sell directly in the market, rather than, converting into WNA and selling, that WNA in the market?
So, you know, your hypothesis to say that, you know, the demand will, sorry, supply will outstrip demand. I don't—we have not seen that, you know, statistics at all.
Okay.
Most of the companies actually produce, and especially fertilizer or, you know, HFC company, they produce for their own captive consumption. The leftover is actually sold out in the marketplace, correct. Nobody will actually put a plant outside India to, you know, export out into India because it is not, first of all, logistics friendly, neither it is cost effective. That is number two. Second thing is that if the economy of India is going to grow from, let's say, $3 trillion to $6-$7 trillion, the kind of demand of nitric acid would actually simply double. And there is no capacities which are coming, which can cater to that kind of a requirement. In fact, there is a shortfall today, and, you know, it will only double, that shortfall will double if there are no capacities which are coming in.
So we don't expect that any, you know, year would be that the supply would actually outstrip. There could be, if at all the economy goes down, but we are not expecting that to happen.
The last from my side is, is it possible to share the current demand for CNA and what sort of capacities are there currently, and how do you see these demand numbers going up over the next 3-4 years based on the reasonable amount of GDP growth or, doubling our economy or the kind of, customer feedbacks which you are getting in terms of their downstream capacities which are using nitric acid?
I don't have that number right now, but we can share later on as an industry, what is the demand and what is the supply currently and how that will be.
Fine, sir. Thank you so much, and wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. We have the next question on the line of Sheel Shah from Samiksha Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hello. Thank you so much. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yeah, so, so realty assets has increased by almost INR 120 crore sequentially. So just wanted to understand what's happening there, sir? Can you repeat your question? The voice is not clear.
I, I'm not able to actually follow you at all, Sahil.
Yeah. So our realty assets have increased by INR 120 crore sequentially. This is as per our segmental assets. So just wanted to understand what we are doing there, sir.
You are asking the question that the realty assets have increased?
Yeah, correct.
Okay. So, you know, why INR 120 crore is what you are asking that question?
Yes.
Okay. We will get back to you. I'll just... You know, it's around INR 180 crore. Yeah, that's, that's what he's asking. So, so effectively, there was some reclassification which has happened, and there is no change in the assets as such, but there is a reclassification. And I can tell you that, you know, that reclassification... So you know, you know, the unallocated there is a, because you are looking at segmental, looks like you are looking at segments, so the, from unallocated, it has actually allocated to the realty. But otherwise, there is no change in the asset, number. The, the amount of assets which we own versus, you know, what we have added. We have not added any assets, especially in the realty.
Okay, understood, sir. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you. We have the next question on the line of Hardik Gori from Alpha Plus Capital Associates. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. Could you provide the approximate conversion factor or some rule for converting natural gas to ammonia?
Generally, you know, 34, 35 is what, you know, we generally have suggested.
Okay, okay. And was there any impact of India subsidy in this quarter?
So, you know, there is none because the prices have actually gone up since then. So there is no as such impact. You know, as I said, in the call earlier, we have already taken a one-time effect of the notification, which is INR 287 crore. We, you know, and we continue to account for this on a regular basis. So, you know, the normal ups and downs are accounted in the results, and because of that, there will be no variability in terms of sales.
Okay. Okay. Can you provide an update on CapEx incurred to date out of INR 2,000 crores allocated for Gopalpur TAN project?
Sorry, can you repeat that for me, please?
Out of INR 2,000 crore allocated for Gopalpur TAN project, how much is incurred to date?
...So we have actually incurred close to, you know, you mean to say how much in cash you incurred or actually committed?
No, no. How much in cash we have incurred?
So, you know, close to around INR 175 crore, you know, that's how it is. So, sorry, sorry, you know, so but from a commitment perspective, we are far more higher. And, you know, till date, for this year, we have actually done it. But, okay, so, you know, what we are saying is that we have actually incurred so far, you know, almost one third of the amount, for the, for the project, for which is close to around INR 2,200 crore. So we have already incurred till date, you know, because I was referring to only for the year, but till date, we have actually done almost close to one third of the amount, which was supposed to be incurred.
Okay, and remaining will be funded via internal growth or debt?
So, so we have only drawn a part of the debt. You know, we have already put in equity. We have already put in some of the debt. So there is, obviously, lines which are available, you know, to, to obviously get the funding. The second thing is that if at all funding is required, there is some equity which we have to put in, which we will put in whenever it is needed to be done.
All right, all right. Thank you for answering my question. That's all from my side.
Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Ranjit from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.
Mr. Nir, just one clarification that we have reported higher other income, which was largely due to an asset sale at Vashi. So under segmental reporting, where would this would have got clubbed? Would it under chemicals?
No, no, it should not be under chemicals. Just let me see that.
Okay.
So this is basically. It is clubbed under other unallocated, unallocable. That is where, you know, that is actually reported out.
Sure. Thank you. Thanks for the clarification.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Deepak Rastogi for closing comments.
So thank you so much for attending the call, you know, and nice talking to you today. Thank you so much, and have a nice day.
Thank you. On behalf of Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals Corporation Limited, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.