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Status Update

Aug 23, 2022

Moderator

Good evening, everyone. For those of you in the room, we have close to 14 people in the room. We also have our Managing Director and our CFO joined us, and we have about 20 odd who have joined us online. Thank you all for joining. It's 4 :00P.M., and we'll start the presentation. Without further ado, a few housekeeping rules. One is we will be recording. We will be recording this conversation and the presentation and the transcript as well as the audio recording will be available on the website. Of course, you can ask us, and we'll be happy to share that with you, too. Just in case you're unable to access the website.

Hopefully, COVID will be here. Great. Okay, it is being recorded. Perfect. Great. Okay, it is being recorded. Perfect. Let me kind of with a warm welcome to those online as well as here. We will follow a format, which is really, an overview by our Managing Director, followed by a financial overview, by our CFO. Then, of course, we will take questions. Before I invite our Managing Director, a few words. I mean, all of you know Sridhar joined us just before COVID, and he joined us from his role in Singapore, and he's now with GSK Asia for close to more than two years. The new addition, for those of you who haven't met, Juby.

Juby has joined as our CFO. He's a chartered accountant from the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India, and his previous experience includes roles such as finance director, leader roles in South East Asia, Vietnam, Turkey, and Middle East. Just immediately prior to this, he was Head of Finance, General Global Manager based in Singapore. Welcome, Juby. With that, I would now hand it over to our Managing Director, Mr. Sridhar Venkatesh, to take you through the overview of GSK.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Be here, Senec. Okay. All right. Great to be here. Welcome. Fantastic to meet all of you face to face. Doing this in a small box for many years, I was looking forward to do this once before my tenure ends at GSK India at some point of time face-to-face. Good to be here. For all those who are online, a warm welcome to all of you. What I promised to you that we will spend most of our time today on Q&A. We'll probably around 10–15 minutes to talk about that and all. We have total one hour, 15 minutes is what we have, we will use that hour to try and respond to you and respond to your Q&A. Right?

I personally think for us at GSK, it's never been more exciting time than for us where we are today, because globally we've made a huge stand in terms of what we are going to be, what are we going to do, what therapeutic areas. I think globally we have taken a stance around of the successful split that we have had between our pharma and our consumer team in terms of what's our clear purpose. I think the more and more you talk about what's happening across the world, it's all becoming a confluence of science, technology and talent. That's something. You need the right kind of people at the right places for us to be successful.

I personally think when I look at some of our global statements that we are making, post our demerger, if I were to call it, all of them have been pointing in this direction. Some of the newer acquisitions that we have made, be it in the space of oncology, be it in space of newer vaccines, all have pointed towards that. Now, clearly, as we look at that, what we want to do through that is to impact around 2.5 billion patients in over 10 years, positively impact through our portfolio. Now, where are those 2.5 billion patients going to come? I mean, you can't think about. You can't take India out of that equation when we talk about 2.5 billion patients.

Some bit of rough calculations that we have done, around 60% of the 2.5 billion will be out of India. A huge part, I can say, of the global GSK purpose will be played out of what we do within India. You will see in terms of our ambitions, in terms of what we are attempting to do with our newer portfolio. Clearly, this is also a company where we want everybody to be themselves, really enjoy what they want to do, and thrive in the work that they're really allowed to do. That clearly is our overall purpose and what we are attempting to create globally and what we are attempting to do in India. Now, what does that mean to India when we talk about this, right?

We wanna be ambitious for patients, what does that mean? We wanna bring innovation into this country. What does that mean for us in India? NUCALA was the first one that we talked about. We just launched TRELEGY in the last few months. We are gearing up to launch a world-leading vaccine, which is just breakthrough in terms of the treatment of shingles, right? If anybody knows what shingles is, one of the most painful disease that anybody can get. We have 10-year data to showcase that this is one of the best vaccines. What does it mean by when we say accountable for impact? We mean how can we maximize the portfolio that we have?

I'll show you some data out there which will clearly articulate how we are being accountable for impact in terms of the portfolio that we have, like gaining share and still being relevant to our marketplace. Of course, underpinning that by saying do the right thing at all times, right? That's been something that's been absolutely, you know, zero tolerance and no compromises towards, you know, on that particular space. Let me very quickly go to what GSK India means to globally at GSK. We are the second-highest contributor to emerging markets, okay? Clearly, I keep telling my team that when India gets cold, because we are a huge part of our overall portfolio. Contribute greatly to the brands that we have, right? Be it AUGMENTIN, we are 17% of the emerging markets.

Flu, Dermatology, we are around 45%-50% of emerging markets. Clearly a huge portfolio and we clearly feel that in India, we still have a long way to go with our dermatology portfolio. Now, as we look at this portfolio for us and GSK India moving forward, clearly the goals that we have are pretty simple. Products that are relevant and what do we need to do with them? Continue to grow faster than the market, have an evolution index greater than 100. Secondly, what Juby is focused on and all of us are focused on, as we grow, how do we continue to improve on those margins? You will see some examples of what we are doing with Juby in Juby's presentation. Vaccines is something we are extremely excited about.

As we speak today, the birth cohort in India says 24–25 million, right? If you see one of the most penetrated pediatric vaccine in this country is a pneumococcal in kids. The most penetrated vaccine, right? I'm not talking about the national immunization vaccine, so don't about that, immunization vaccine gets you to 80-85%, right? Forget, I’m not talking about that. What I’m talking about, those vaccine which are outside of the NIP. Clearly, some of these vaccines are real, you know, which can be not a lot more. I’m excited about that category of durations, other vaccinations, what COVID has done is expose that significantly, and to look at our portfolio starting with SHINGRIX.

We have flu, plus some other globally, you might have hear about the RSVs, again, something still under regulatory approval. All of those vaccines are gonna be again, opened up in other vaccination space. That’s something we really want to grow for us sometime in the future and I think that’s a big space that we have room. Clearly, of course, oncology, you call again as the very least indication, oncology is again going exceptionally well globally, we have just started that in India, we have some very good uptake on oncology. This is an indication we have is COPD and we clearly think this is another big product for us or in the next couple of years.

How have we been doing? Earlier on, the three things we want to do build, grow and shred. Build new assets, that’s what TRELEGY is, that’s what SHINGRIX is going to be. Grow on some of the asses that we have, what can be done to ensure that we simplify our operations. Do what is right, focus on those core brands and continue to grow that. Shred, some of the things that you might have, positions that we might have taken, fundamentally you want to take away the drag, and that’s what we’ve been attempting to do. I’m not saying that we are done with the journey, that is a continous process.

Sure, what I’m trying to say is we gained market share in our promoted brand. Even during COVID, we grew some of the market share. There was a feel that post-COVID, we will drop all of that market share, in fact we grow our market share and by the end of the year, we actually gained and continue to lead in our represented market.

Who do not get vaccine during the period of COVID. We were right out there talking about what more can be done. Of course, a lot of various digital programs, doctor's clinics, many other places we created so that people understand all about and especially support them in their whole vaccination journey. This is all about pediatric vaccines. Building specialty, I talked about NUCALA. We continue to be encouraged. We launched NUCALA during right before the perfect storm, which COVID hit us. During that time, it was , pulmonologists were, rightly so, super focused on treating COVID patients, right? But overall, therefore, we saw the uptake that we saw earlier on was not exactly the way we would have liked it.

But again, I'm very happy to say post-COVID. Well, I can't say post-COVID. Right now, whatever it is right now, I'm starting to see very good acceleration. Similarly with TRELEGY, we see a good acceleration. It was, again, a unique launch of physical and a digital, and again, pulmonologists seem excited about a device which clearly a lot many patients, I mean, physicians or pulmonologists especially have taken this brand. SHINGRIX, we're getting ready to launch this in the first half of 2023. That's the broad, I would say the commercial part of what we are doing in the business.

I'll hand it over to Juby, who will quickly walk you through some numbers, facts, and figures. As I promised, we'll be done in the next 8-10 minutes, and then we'll open the entire hour for Q&A with all of you. Juby?

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Good evening, everyone. Thank you, Sridhar. The next couple of minutes, I'll take you through the high level. Also, I'll articulate some of the progress what we are making over the last couple of years. Firstly, this is the quick snapshot of 2022. You see our sales is at INR 3,197 [inaudible] growth. Now, what's really important is our price as well as our volume, both are growing. Each pillars of our portfolio which is growing around 25%, which is where we are more focused on. All our brands which are promoted, all our resources are allocated into those brands, and that's demonstrating a strong progress in terms of growth. General medicine, which forms part of the entire pharmaceutical brands, which is growing 19%.

Specialty, which is the new NUCALA and all the new where we are getting new products launched, that's growing 86%, almost doubling last year. Up 9%. Again, vaccines, as you know, during COVID times, there was decline in number of babies. That's a temporary blip we could see in the market. Again, if you see the growth on some of our core brands, Calpol, AUGMENTIN, [Suprax], all are demonstrating very strong growth. Right-hand side, you can see the margins, 59% margin on a large base, improving our ratio by another percentage. PBT, 24%, again, improving on a large base the ratio another 2%. EBITDA also improved 3% from 20 22 to 2023. Dividend, we have consistently declared in the past.

This is a quick snapshot of the quarter results which you are seeing. The reported growth, but if you see the underlying growth. Underlying growth here is excluding the impact of Calpol, which had a higher base last year due to COVID. It's 12% underlying growth. That's coming from 6% price and 6% volume. The underlying growth is very strong. If you see all the pillars of our portfolio, general medicine, specialty, and vaccines, all the three pillars are showing very strong growth. That gives us confidence that our strategy is working. Our promoted brands, as you could see, the market share has got improved. All the three pillars, the underlying growth is very, very strong. We are continually focusing on gross margin and EBITDA which we are also demonstrating improvement.

Those who are following this closely, we are on a seasonal business. Quarter two tends to be the—quarter one of the financial year tends to be the lowest quarter, and September ending quarter will be the highest quarter due to seasonality. This is a trend which you could see during the past years. Just to bring you up to speed on what are we talking about our strategy. Over the last three years, we've been doing several things that is demonstrating in our financials. If you see the three parts of our financials, revenue, gross margin, and EBITDA, all the three are showing strong improvement. Revenue has grown 8%.

If you see gross margin, despite all the headwinds we had in the market, sure has grown 2%, from 57.6% to 59.4%. EBITDA, if you see 5% improvement. Now the EBITDA is from gross margin improvement almost 1.8%. Employment costs, where we're finding efficiencies, we are focusing on promoted brands where it makes sense. That's again, giving us a 2% improvement. Also cost, continuously working on cost efficiencies, and that's also giving us a strong uptake in our EBITDA margins. Now, just to bring you for the last five years what's happening on our portfolio. The left-hand side is the reported numbers. Reported numbers has got divestments excluded on the last year, but the base has got some discontinued divested brands.

If you see the five-year CAGR on the continuing portfolio, like across all the years, which is the real underlying growth, general medicines, 9% growth, vaccines, 10%, specialty, again, it's double-digit growth, 100% growth. It's on a small base. We are consistently delivering very, very strong cash flow. That's why we could declare dividend also year -on -year. The bottom line, the story I'm trying to make here is our underlying growth, despite the divestments, despite the headwinds we have, is very strong and strong in our financials. Lastly, this is my last slide. I just want to bring you again to context. With all these changes what we are making in the last couple of years, if you see our EBITDA margins, it started at 16% on the left hand.

Now, as we speak in the last reported financials, it's 23%. A strong improvement has been made across all the years. Consistent improvement if you see margins. That's on several initiatives we were doing. The cost efficiencies we are trying to do. The focus on promoted brands where it matters, we were reallocating our resources. We were discontinuing some brands which doesn't make sense for us, which Sridhar was articulating about the new products. As we move forward, what we try to do, we continue to do well , some of the things which were working, which is like growing our promoted brands. With growing our focused brands, which have got better margin mix.

WPI price increase, which we will be playing out. We will have challenges in terms of NLEM price cuts, but our WPI price increases will be going to help us. New products, the new launches, they're going to again drive growth. Also we'll continue to focus on cost savings. Basically we expect to sustain this EBITDA margin as we go forward and try to further improve upon them. Over to you, Sridhar, to close the call.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Right. So look, I just wanna also talk about, as we've been chugging through this, we've also been, you know, very proud. How we've also been awarded quite a few awards. One of the best workplaces, I mean, you can get a sense of what happens when you walk in. We put in a huge amount of effort. Working women with awards. I mean, overall, very proud of what we've been able to get. At the end of the day, we never forget that every year we touch around 200 million patients through our medicines, which is a significant number. I mean, our medicines touch around six million immunizations. Again, never forget that. That's the core of what we do.

That's why we come here on a day-to-day basis to work. That's what keeps us going on an ongoing basis. With that, we'll be done in 15 minutes.

Moderator

Thank you, Sridhar and Juby. May I request you to kindly take and also be seated. We can. Yeah. Okay. We will now open for questions. The format will be as follows. Those online, kindly raise your hand and the moderator will then unmute your line, and then you can shoot the question that you have. Please name where you are from. If you'd like the question to be posed to either Juby or to Sridhar. Before we start, I think the first person in the room, which has obviously taken, you know, the time out from your busy schedule. Those of you who would like to raise a question here, kindly come forward because we can then give you the mic, or we can pass on the mic to you.

If any of you are thinking in the meantime, let me start with a question that came from Sanjeev Vaidyanathan, Partner, Eternity Capital. He's put in a set of three questions. The long-term outlook for growth margins and returns for the business. It would be split this out. Chronic acute versus vaccine, self-pay , sponsor. Juby, may I request you to.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Thank you. I think firstly , the core of our business is more acute. We've got only 5% chronic segment, which is a one brand mainly vaccine. Majority of our business is from acute business. Now, in terms of guidance, forward guidance, as you know, we are not. This on the past performance you would have seen the past year. Last year we were growing 19% on the promoted brands, and last five years we demonstrated the growth. Do you want to add anything?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

No, no. Look, the question sounds like how I probably am presenting to my boss out there, right? Five years roadmap flat. No, but look, fundamentally, just to give you a perspective, you saw the bets that we are making. The bets that we are making is a focused portfolio. We have grown double digits. India is a broadly under-penetrated market. We have an opportunity, so we're potentially going that direction. The big growth that we will potentially see is in our new launches. Especially, so when we launch SHINGRIX, we think that should be a hugely growing space.

In terms of our pediatric business, as I said, we have a 26 million growth cohort, one million most penetrated vaccine, four million patients who are in the SEC A category who can afford on some of these private vaccines. Look, I mean, you can do your math, but it's, in my mind, it is for considerable future growth with most of our portfolio. We will remain focused on the portfolio that we have, but we think there is a massive opportunity with what we have right now.

Moderator

Thank you, Juby. Thank you, Sridhar. The next question, again, this is the second of part three questions. What are the competitive advantages that you have and continue to build on, which allows you the above long, long-term visibility? It will be great if you can just compare to those of your most relevant competitors.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Look, I think the way I look at that is the biggest advantage that I have is I have the entire GSK lineup. The amount of innovation that is coming through GSK at a global level, be it oncology, rheumatology, vaccines, adult vaccines, anti-infectives, it is huge, right? I have the power of bringing all of those into the Indian market. To me, that innovation is something that's gonna drive number one. Number two, I think even though I have products like AUGMENTIN and Calpol. Calpol, which incidentally saved the most lives during COVID, because not the vaccines helped, but Calpol is the one which saved the most lives during COVID time. These products are still extremely relevant, and these products have become a household name, and we think there's an opportunity to continue to grow these brands.

The strength of the brands, the equity that these brands command, right, is significant. Is very significant. We also have an opportunity to continue to generate local data on some of these molecules. If somebody thought AUGMENTIN is a 50-year-old brand, we still continue to develop, bring data on antimicrobial resistance. What is happening? We invest a lot, and some of those things, I think, are real competitive advantages. The strength of the brand, the relevance of the brand, the future of the portfolio and newer areas that we think clearly , are, I think, the competitive advantages that we have in GSK India.

Moderator

Thank you. Thank you, Sridhar. Last question of part three. What is the best way to understand the difference in operation of GSK Pharma listed entity and GSK Asia unlisted subsidiary? In that context, why was Iodex, Ostocalcium originally sold through the listed entity up here to GSK Asia?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

I'll leave it to the expert.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Firstly, I think listed entities, okay. 100% of our sales are through the listed entities. GSK Asia, which the question is, the consumer arm of GSK, which is not part of my business. It's a completely different entity. The Ostocalcium, Iodex sales we have updated in the public domain in the stock exchanges as part of the new GSK when pharma and consumer split globally. The consumer brands moved to the consumer division, and that's part of this transfer of Ostocalcium, Iodex to the GSK Asia, which is a consumer entity. It's a completely different business. No connection with this pharma entity here.

Moderator

Okay, thank you. We'll open up for folks here. Yes, raise your hand first, then I'll come to you. Just introduce yourself, your name, the company, and your question posed to whom.

Speaker 14

Thank you so much. I'm Amir from Haitong. The first question is on the vaccines basically. Last year was not good for us in terms of growth in the vaccine category. If you can tell whether the post-COVID normalization has happened already in the vaccine market and what is the outlook for the vaccine sales in FY 2023. Along with that, if you can also highlight the key products on the vaccine category which you would be focusing on, especially in the adult side. The FLUARIX is the vaccine which has good potential in India, and your competitor has already started doing a lot of ads on the radio and et cetera. What we are doing to basically compete with them.

Also on the outlook of SHINGRIX vaccine, how big that opportunity could be? Thank you.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

It's still in negative space. A lot of that has got to do with postponing vaccines. I talked about the SEC A categories, et cetera. We don't have those data, but I'm sure you have seen those anecdotal reports of birth rates coming down a little bit in some of these places. That has all had an impact. As I said, the market is still around -10% to -12% category. That is where they are. Of course, we continue to hold our share. While the market is declining, if we are holding our share means we are gaining share from our competitors, which clearly means as we still are a key relevant part of that.

In terms of future outlook, a lot will be dependent upon how, as I said, there is a, it takes, you know, most of our vaccines are zero to one, so for that we need more kids to be out there. You know, there is a time for kids who are post all of this. It takes. There is a cycle. We remain optimistic, hugely optimistic based on some of the lead indicators that we see in hospitals, et cetera. We think this is gonna come back. Remain absolutely committed on that particular space. You talked about FLUARIX adult vaccine. Yes, FLUARIX is clearly one. And of course SHINGRIX in the future.

We've been very pleased with what we have done with FLUARIX, and I think IMS and IQVIA do not do justice to what we do, what we sell. Look, I mean, you've seen those numbers in our, how we report. What we've been able to do in the last two years has been really significant. Probably I need to see which channels you see, and I need to get my ads in front of you. There are a lot of those, especially the ones recently you might have seen. They are not ads. Let me clarify myself. We don't do ads. We never do ads. What we do is disease awareness campaigns, okay?

They were the disease awareness campaign of getting flu and also the fact that the current strains also protect you against H1N1, so you might have seen some of those. Yes, we do a lot of those activities. Future outlook of SHINGRIX. Look, I'm not gonna sit here and speculate. I can give you the indication, okay? Indication is 50 + years anybody needs that shot, right? We don't have the other indication yet in India, which is 18+ immunocompromised. I don't have that indication yet in India, but anything 50+ people should be taking it. Is it gonna be? Will everybody take it? No. I mean, I don't know how many of you have taken flu shot here in the room or in the call.

There is a little bit of an apathy about adult vaccine, and that calls for companies like us to spend more time on disease awareness. That's something that you will see continuously us doing.

Moderator

Great. The next question, I'll pass on the mic, and maybe you can introduce.

Nikhil Upadhyaya
Research Analyst, Securities Investment Management

Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Nikhil Upadhyaya from Securities Investment Management. Two, three questions. One is on the vaccine side. If you look at last two and a half years, what you mentioned is quite relevant, that the whole of the cohort has not been there, people were not going. What we thought is that there would be a significant pent-up demand whenever the things start opening up. Even in the AGM and now also you mentioned that the market is still degrowing. Is it that something structurally has changed? What we have also seen, government has added also a lot more vaccines in the [inaudible]. Is there anything structural which has changed, or is it still something which you believe is temporary?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Look, I think yes, I think the government has taken some steps, right? Clearly there are a few patients who are going to private are going to the government category, right? Clearly around the pneumococcal space, there is some of that that has happened. I also think people have postponed quite a few decisions, right? Some of these vaccines that we are talking about are outside of your normal vaccines that you would take, right? From an economic standpoint, people have postponed some of those decisions. There has been a pent-up demand, but it has not been as if everybody has, who has not taken that vaccine has come back up. Clearly, the birth cohort, we think there is a time people have postponed.

Look, it has taken me really hard sometimes when I'm speaking to my boss to say that marriages in India got postponed, therefore kids gets postponed. People don't understand that sometimes. It's taken me time for me to make people understand that. There is a cycle. We are seeing that cycle slowly turning around, right? There are, as I said, some lead indicators of other medicines that are used which will help us tell us what's happening to the birth cohort, et cetera. We have to be patient. I think it's gonna take till end of the year for this to kind of bottom out. I think slowly only next year the market's potentially starting to come back up.

Nikhil Upadhyaya
Research Analyst, Securities Investment Management

Second, if we look at last 10 years of GSK, we've seen. One clarification you mentioned at the starting, before my tenure ends. Is it something closer to date?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Please, you know, there's nothing called everybody's tenure end at some point of time. That I was just making an off-the-cuff comment.

Nikhil Upadhyaya
Research Analyst, Securities Investment Management

If over the last 10 years from where you were, you were handed over Glaxo as the MD, what we've seen is that the company has been a laggard and many of the smaller companies have taken market share from Glaxo. We were the leader at some point. In the early 2010s, it was like Glaxo's MR productivity was the benchmark. What has changed and what structural changes you have brought in over the last three to four years, which gives you the confidence that probably now the things are set for us to probably benchmark or make benefit from the steps which we have taken with?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

A fantastic question. Look, I think 10 years ago we were a different company. Our outlook was different. What we could launch in this country was different. The regulatory environment was different. The scientific proof of what the bar that GSK has for itself in terms of what I could launch was very different, right? Clearly, over a period of time, some decisions were made, or rightfully so, we are a global company, we have to kind of work through. One of the things that we had to understand is what products we can launch and what we cannot launch. Clearly there were some decisions that were made in the last eight to 10 years on which are the areas that we would focus on.

Clearly, also the environment externally, some decisions like Zantac, Zinetac along the way have not helped us, okay. They were all done for the right reasons. I mean, I'm not going to go back into that. I think it's a little bit compared to some of the, I'm not challenging the growth of other companies here. They have done what is right for them, which is good. For us , was, we needed to look at where do we want to play. We made that decision in terms of where we wanna play. Ten years ago was a different space and a different time. The last couple of years, and two, three, we are in the journey for three to four years.

We are very clear about where we wanna play. We are very clear about where we don't want to play. For example, if somebody were to say tomorrow, "Will you launch a product in diabetes?" I can say here sitting now, absolutely not. Do I wanna be in cardiovascular? No, that's not a space that I think I have innovation, that I think I can add value. There is enough people out there. All the numbers that he was talking about is on those seven or eight therapeutic key products that we have, vaccines and innovation. I think you will start to see GSK India in the future, something like what we saw eight or 10 years ago, but with a different set of products, different set of people, and a different.

The shape of the P&L will look very different because the skills that I need for immunology, oncology, adult vaccine is gonna be very different from what I need for a mass product, which I need another 2,000 people. Right? The shape of the P&L is changing, the shape of the business is changing significantly. I think we are somewhere 60% in that journey. As we get those products in, you will start to see this very differently.

Nikhil Upadhyaya
Research Analyst, Securities Investment Management

Just one last and I'll pass on. In this process, because if you look at 2015, 2016 also, and go through our annual reports, we used to focus on the generic medicine, vaccines and specialty. If you look at now the way competition is, if a product goes generic, there are 30, 40 players who are competing and also probably apt for a player like GSK to build a specialty pipeline or to a much larger extent, create actual brands. For that to happen, how is the organization structure being created? Like for specialty, what is the kind of MR team? How is the team being divided and what are the KPIs on which each of them being measured?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah. Look, clearly four years ago, we probably had one large team. Right now, if you were to see, we not only of course, we have a general medicines team and clearly structured under that, multiple teams to focus on the various brands. Let's talk about vaccines. We have recently created a completely different team to focus on adult vaccine, which reports straight into me. Somebody who sits in the leadership team a business today which has zero rupees in sales, but we know that's, that we need to focus on that. There is a head of pediatric vaccine who reports into me, there is a head of adult vaccine who reports into me. That's a clear investment for the future, including teams under them who are trying to get ready.

Specialty, we brought in, as I said, we brought in somebody, again, a head of specialty whose whole goal is to create this team. Right now, the team under him promotes NUCALA and TRELEGY. As we are getting closer to oncology launches in this country, we will start to see, we put people six months, nine months before, do one of the things that we show. As I said, I have now four commercial team members reporting to me, a general medicine, pediatric vaccine, adult vaccine, specialty, right? There's somebody else who looks after the various emerging channels. We are looking at all of this spectrum of portfolio. That's how we kind of structure.

Of course, very different in terms of what needs to be done across. For some, it is the success of new launch. For some others, it is how quickly we can get a product into the market. For some others, it is how do you shape the market for the new launch? They're pretty different.

Nikhil Upadhyaya
Research Analyst, Securities Investment Management

Sorry, why.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Mic.

Nikhil Upadhyaya
Research Analyst, Securities Investment Management

On the KPI side, it's like in the focus brand we had, we talk about AUGMENTIN, Calpol.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah.

Nikhil Upadhyaya
Research Analyst, Securities Investment Management

Dermatology, but there are also [inaudibale], where we were the leader.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah.

Nikhil Upadhyaya
Research Analyst, Securities Investment Management

The market is still pretty strong but we’ve lost the leadership. Is market share defending an ability to grow the product also an important part for the whole team or?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

100%, right? I mean, that is what we live and breathe for. As I said, I'm not saying here that everything is lost. There are areas where we have won share. There are a couple of products we have lost and won in one. Again, I have to say in the last six months, you will see it in a year's time. I start to see data much more closely. I think we are coming back on that space very strongly.

Speaker 15

Hi, Anuj from M3 Investment . On the vaccines, on the pent-up demand, if , what percentage of the vaccines demand will be permanently extinguished or perished because out of that age bracket. Any thoughts out there that it might not be a pent-up, it might be perished forever?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

There, as I said, most of the vaccines are zero to one. Look, more than some of the vaccines that we are exiting forever, I think the few vaccines that we are not gonna get back are some of those where shifting to the, you know, especially the pneumococcal space is really, which is people who can afford to are moving over to that space. On the basis of what I think for vaccines, we think that's gonna be a pretty small portion. It's not because if you see this, right, as I said, market was showing a negative 17%-18%. We showed a negative growth of -3%. We actually gained share in most of our key vaccines, right?

How much have we given what, how much have we completely lost? Look, I think it'll be around a percentage point or two, a couple of percentage points, but I really don't want to sit here and have a guess at how much I would have completely lost.

Speaker 15

All right. Second question is, you know, is competing with us directly. Is it completely playing in the government pay market or it's there in the self-pay market?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

They're there in both. I mean, we are competing. I mean, look, we don't play in the NIP space at all.

Speaker 15

Right.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

We are not there. They are there in the private space too.

Speaker 15

Just self-pay market as a percentage total vaccine market five years ago and today, is the self-pay market shrinking continuously?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yes. Absolutely. Right now, well, last five years. Look, last two years, as I said, it's been a negative 18-20% decline. All right? Last two years, it's been a decline. I, as I said, I think this is. We think there are enough lead indicators for us to say that this is gonna come back.

Speaker 15

All right. One question on MR productivity. You know, if you look at the incentive structure in the last three years or five years, how are you directing the incentive structures to evolve and for you to get 50 to where you were, let's suppose?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

To me, I don't know if I will directly link incentive structure, incentives to MR productivity, right? To me, MR productivity is a function of the relevance of my products, what I can do, where I can, right? I can talk especially, specifically, separately about my incentive structure. Incentive structure moved away from. It was at one point of time, you know, we had all reps, then it moved GSK, I mean, globally, GSK moved to only at a second-line PCV level. From last year onwards, we have, you know, the targets right at the, at the rep level, so incentive-wise at the rep level. Look, there has been a journey, there has been a different set of things.

Clearly , we think, our, if you were to use that as a terminology, if I look at it within the operating space that I have, I think I'm pretty comfortable. When you look at, I have a set of products which I don't promote, which are there, that's when I think you start to see a different level of productivity. It's a function of portfolio. My portfolio has shrunk significantly. As I said, as I launch these new products, these numbers are gonna change significantly.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Just to add, if you look at the total employment cost in the reported numbers, it's declined 1% despite we have an inflation of 8%-10%, right? The decline is a function of productivity, where we are rightly allocating our resource to where it matters. The same providing for the inflation, our employment cost has not grown over the last one year.

Speaker 15

One last question. You know, if you theoretically could launch from the global portfolio, but you're prioritizing. What are the parameters you're prioritizing a launch versus others? Thanks.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Fundamentally, the need in the Indian market, right? I mean, let me turn this around and say that most of the products that are coming out of the portfolio will be relevant for India, right? We will launch, especially in the oncology space, vaccines, immunology space. Right now, if there is a very high niche kind of a product which has, it is a very rare disease. Right now, I've not come across anything which I'm seeing there, which I say I will not launch. Most of the products that we have in the near-term portfolio we will launch. As we speak today, there are around, correct me if I'm wrong, Satish, clinical trials happening in India for various products, right?

The intention that we are doing those trials is potentially we will launch them in the future.

Moderator

We have folks online.

Speaker 10

Thank you for the opportunity. Just want to understand, if you look at the WPI benefit, has it flowed in in the 1Q entirely, or we should see it in Q2, to be more specific? And what kind of price cut should we look at for the full year?

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

If you see the quarter one public service, it's 6% price impact in the results. Full year, we could expect around 8%-10% annualized price impact.

Speaker 10

If you look at.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

It will flow through in the coming months.

Speaker 10

If we look at these price increase versus the cost inflations that we might have experienced in terms of our, you know, raw material around, is there any offset that we should expect or the number that you just mentioned we should look for?

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Typically, what we are seeing in the market is , one is our raw material, which is the API inflation, as well as the packaging material and the aluminum, all those kind of stuff is used for our packaging in the factories. That's also, the inflation is happening. We expect around 2%-3% cost increase due to inflation happen. Price increase of course will add us to , you know, sustain our margin as I explained. It's not going to have a material dent in the margin as we speak because it's coming around 2%-3% cost inflation happening and our price increase is going to help us there.

Speaker 10

If you can explain growth. I mean, we are talking about 6% volume growth, which is significantly higher than the overall IPM volume growth. What is it that is driving these kind of? Are these only mass or is there any contribution? Because as we were discussing around the vaccine portfolio being weak, and we expect it to come back, say only by end of this year. So how should we look at it? And with that, if we look at the EBITDA margin also, because I remember our earlier conversation wherein EBITDA margins for vaccines are, kind of much lower and, at an arm's length basis. So how should we, you know, because that indicates that our EBITDA margin should be much higher. Of course, we have seen a dent in this one Q.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Look, I mean, we're getting our growth. As I said, there was a natural transition towards key known brands during COVID. Everybody expected. Of course, we were able to keep our supply chain running. Everything happened, and we gained share. Now people thought we were gonna lose share during that. It didn't happen, though. The brand has stayed. I think that momentum is helping us. We are fully back. We were first to get back into the field. All of that, plus the relevance of the mass products, which is helping us, you know, get those volumes out there. Also the vaccines coming back is of course going to have an impact. I don't know. What was the second question there, Bart? Well, I'm not gonna comment on a future.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Yeah, I think if you see the mix of pharma products are around 78% and vaccine is 22%, 20%-22% of our portfolio. Pharma is also growing much faster than vaccines. Okay, the margin is not going to dilute just because vaccine is going to come. Vaccine has relatively lower margin, but the ratio will maintain because pharma is growing on a larger base at much higher rate. Yeah, it's a lower portion of our total sales and the margins will sustain. I will go online just so that I'm not ignoring the folks who've joined online. Those of you who have a question, kindly raise your hand. The moderator will kind of allow you to ask your question. Just introduce yourself.

Okay, Dheeraj, can you introduce yourself, from which organization you are, and your question? Moderator, if you can unmute Dheeraj Pathak.

Dheeraj Pathak
Investment Analyst, Vidal Asset Management

Yes. Thank you. Am I audible?

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Yes.

Dheeraj Pathak
Investment Analyst, Vidal Asset Management

Thank you for the opportunity. I am from [Vital] Asset Management. I have two or three questions. First is on, are there any more OTC type brands like Ostocalcium or Iodex which might transfer later on? Or now the portfolio is just prescription brands and there is no OTC?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

I hope, but no. There are no more at this moment.

Dheeraj Pathak
Investment Analyst, Vidal Asset Management

Okay. On pneumococcal vaccine, Synflorix, is that vaccine part of the NIP program or it is yet to be part of the NIP program?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah. Synflorix as a brand is not a part of NIP program. I mean, pneumococcal has got introduced. We are not a part of that NIP program.

Dheeraj Pathak
Investment Analyst, Vidal Asset Management

No. Just to like understand that part properly, when they say pneumococcal is part, the same formulation and the strains that is in Synflorix, that is part but you are not participating in the NIP program. Is that what you mean?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

There is a competing molecule from other company which is a part of that NIP program. See, look, you can never say this is exactly the same. They have some strains here and there. Yes, they all have the same indication as given by the drug controller, which is for the pneumococcal space. You are right, we are not a part of the NIP program.

Dheeraj Pathak
Investment Analyst, Vidal Asset Management

Sure. The broader question I wanted to ask you was that if our molecule, if the vaccine comes under NIP, in the private market, do we have to reduce prices or the prices are free in the private market? Even if the vaccine is part of the NIP, and we are not participating ourselves in the NIP program, in the private market, do we have to match prices? Does it come under price is the question.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

No, I don't think these are completely different topics. NIP is a program run by the government. You can choose to participate in it. There are some clearly laid out conditions. There is a tender, right? A tender for the country. We cannot compete in that tender for whatever reasons. We are not a part of that tender. Now, private market is a completely different market. Prices, MRP, we are run by the rules of what, how much we can increase, what you can do. These are two completely different parallel streams. Nothing, they're not linked at all with each other.

Dheeraj Pathak
Investment Analyst, Vidal Asset Management

Okay. One last question, sir.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Okay.

Dheeraj Pathak
Investment Analyst, Vidal Asset Management

Is vaccine you said is 22% of the business? You gave like promoted brands and specialty. Can you also give their revenue share in the total business now?

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Yes. Total vaccine is 22% of the total business. Promoted brands makes roughly 62% of the pharma business. The rest of the 78%, around 62% is promoted brands. Totally including vaccines, we are talking about total portfolio, 80% is promoted.

Dheeraj Pathak
Investment Analyst, Vidal Asset Management

Understood. Thank you.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Okay, next question, Dhaval Shah has raised his hand. Hi, Dhaval. If you can pose your question, go ahead. Dhaval?

Dhaval Shah
Fund Manager and Senior Analyst, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund

Yeah. Hi. Good evening. I hope I'm audible.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Yes, you are.

Dhaval Shah
Fund Manager and Senior Analyst, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund

Yeah. Hi, this is Dhaval Shah from Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund. Thank you for this analyst meet. First question is, I just wanted to understand the market potential for your, you know, three specialty products, that is NUCALA, TRELEGY, and SHINGRIX. If you can just articulate what is the market potential that you're looking for each of these products.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Look, I think NUCALA is a very niche indication. It's a biologic for eosinophilic asthma. I don't know if that market doesn't exist today. The biologic market doesn't exist. I think broadly, you know, when I say it doesn't exist, it's a very, very small market. We, you know, again, I don't wanna sit here and talk about in crores, but you're talking about patients in thousands, you know, few thousands who could potentially take that. While you're talking about TRELEGY is the entire COPD market, right? That to me is in, correct me if I'm wrong, if it's around, is it a few thousand crores, right? It's somewhere in that particular space. The third one was about.

Dhaval Shah
Fund Manager and Senior Analyst, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund

SHINGRIX.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

SHINGRIX. SHINGRIX, again, the adult vaccine does not exist. Market doesn't exist. You know, anybody above 50 is at risk of. They should be getting that vaccine, right? We think some, you know, if again, the apathy around vaccines goes, and like what you see in some of the other markets across developed markets across the world, you know, the potential is massive, right? Again, these are markets that we are creating, Dhaval. I mean, as I said, these will be the markets for some of these products.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Okay. Dhaval, any more questions?

Dhaval Shah
Fund Manager and Senior Analyst, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund

Yeah. The second question that I have is on the derma market, and, you know, that also kind of got impacted because of COVID. I just wanted to understand, you know, how much normalization has happened in that overall context and how do you see that going forward?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Pretty much normalized. In fact, you know, I go by the metric of are my reps able to see the doctor walking in or they wait for a few hours? If they are walking in, business is not so great, though they're meeting their doctors, right? Right now I can see those doctors extremely busy, and I think that market's coming back significantly.

Dhaval Shah
Fund Manager and Senior Analyst, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund

Okay.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Okay.

Dhaval Shah
Fund Manager and Senior Analyst, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund

The last one is on Synflorix, and I just wanted to understand what possibly Girish was also asking is that do you expect the private market, you know, to grow, after, you know, this getting included in NIP, in that overall sense? Would you expect private market growth to continue for Synflorix, say over the next year and the next three years?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

No, we see that declining, okay. As I said, that's not a market. We are seeing that decline. There are patients who are moving over to the NIP. I'm not expecting that market to have that pent-up demand and growth of what we saw in the past. There are the other vaccines which are coming back. You know, we have the meningococcal vaccine, the Tdap, which is the BOOSTRIX. We have, you know, the six in ones. This one, I expect the private market to continue to decline.

Dhaval Shah
Fund Manager and Senior Analyst, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund

Yeah. Great. Thank you. Thank you, Sridhar. Thank you, Dhaval. We'll go to Gagan Khareja, who's raised his hand. Gagan, if you can, go ahead and ask your question.

Gagan Thareja
Portfolio Managers, ASK Investment Managers

Yeah. Good evening. I hope I'm audible.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yes. Thank you. Go ahead.

Gagan Thareja
Portfolio Managers, ASK Investment Managers

Yeah. So the first question is around the proposed changes to the NLEM list, where three of your products can, you know, additionally figure in T-BACT, SEPTRA and ROTARIX. If that materializes, you know, what could be the impact on the pricing, aggregate basis on all these three products versus the pricing methodology followed under the NLEM?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Look, again, I'll wait for the government to come in to tell us the pricing. I am not gonna speculate on what the pricing could be, what they would do. What I can, if at all the price gets released and we have a direct impact, I can say that we have enough experience from the past of having gone through these turmoils and ensure that we come back in terms of our, you know, in certain cases volume, certain cases other productivity improvement measures. Look, I clearly don't want to speculate on what would happen. Whatever be the scenario, I think we are pretty much ready to click on the button within 24 hours to do whatever needs to be done.

Gagan Thareja
Portfolio Managers, ASK Investment Managers

I'm sorry, sir. You were not audible for most of the comments.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Oh, okay. I'm sorry. Am I okay now? Am I audible now?

Gagan Thareja
Portfolio Managers, ASK Investment Managers

Yes. You are audible now. Thank you.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah. Look, as I said, I am not. I don't want to speculate in terms of how much and what would be the price impact, if at all that happens. I don't know what I don't know. Whatever be the methodology, but you know. As I said, irrespective of whatever happens, we've gone through these times in the past. We are ready to manage that carefully. What needs to be done, in terms of volume expansion or whatever needs to be done, we are ready with that, with that thinking. I , clearly, I don't want to go into that space of speculating what would be the amount of price impact on these products.

Gagan Thareja
Portfolio Managers, ASK Investment Managers

No, I understand that, sir. Could you give the salience of these three products in your portfolio today? I mean, what proportion of sales would these three constitute for you?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

I can tell you that's insignificant now. It's not a focus area. You're talking about KEFTAB. KEFTAB, I mean, which is an important product for us. But again, in the larger scheme of things, it's less than 1%. Even less than 1%. And the other one is T-BACT, which is again two to three percentage points.

Gagan Thareja
Portfolio Managers, ASK Investment Managers

Right. Last year you also indicated that the API for paracetamol had seen a very sharp increase, while you know the volumes of Calpol would have taken some sort of an impact because year on year, last year, you know you had the second COVID wave. In terms of input pricing, have things?

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Look better this quarter and also you would have taken some price increases on the business.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah, take it.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

I think, firstly, I think, most of the raw materials, particularly paracetamol, has gone up roughly 20-25% in terms of cost inflation. Now, the good thing is we have long-term contracts with the vendors. We have signed long-term contracts on most of API. We got certain level of, you know, visibility in terms of how the cost is evolved. That's one thing. That's why. And also the price increase both are kind of cushioning us, so we are not seeing that impact the reported quarter also, the last quarter also on the margins. We still see the margin improving. We continue to have these kind of cost pressures, but we'll be carefully managing that.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

I mean, I would say the margin pressures remain. Okay. Let's see. The geopolitical situation around us is not improving for the short term, so we continue to watch it closely. Again, that's the strength of being a global multinational. We have scale and size to kind of globally look at some of these, especially some of our vendors. So that helps us a little bit. Juby's bang on to say right now the costs have helped us a little bit. I mean, the price increases have helped us a little bit, but the pressures remain.

Moderator

We'll go to the room.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

Hi. Good evening, sir. I'm Satish Bhatt from Anvil Share& Stock Broking. I'm tracking your company from maybe 1992, so it's more than I think three decades. During this phase, I think some of our past speakers have told that we were once leader and now we are not there to be seen. Not to be recognized as a leader, you know. We have become more of a acute company than a chronic company, you know. The presentation which you made that you want to focus on the specialty products like NUCALA and TRELEGY and whatever oncology portfolio you have, you haven't mentioned how fast you are going to introduce the product. Because the niraparib is already, I think, out in the market for the last two and a half years, we are still not yet launched in India.

Why it is.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

What?

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

Niraparib.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

Yes, ZEJULA. Yeah. You still haven't launched in India, so. Sir, you told that I think what I track your specialties less than hardly 1% of sales, maybe TRELEGY and NUCALA put together maybe. If I consider that to your forthcoming products which are going to literally change the structure of the company in terms of their product portfolio, which you have presented, you know. I just want to know, sir. I think two years back in your annual report you had written that ZEJULA targets a market of nine lakh patients. It's written in your annual. Today we are talking something only 1,000 patients, you know. What type of investments you will have to require to get those type of patients, you know? Because these are the products which are biologics.

Maybe you will have to develop the market. What type of front-end investments you may have to need to make at a INR 50 million or INR 100 million products which is really move needle for a company like Glaxo, you know.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

Because our size is as big as INR 3,000 crores.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

To make a needle, you have to make at least 10%. You know, your thoughts on those lines.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Happy to. By thousand, I didn't mean thousand. I meant thousands.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

Yeah.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

in a few five-figure thousands.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

Yeah.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

That's the. Not the four figures. There is that potential, but it's not millions as what you see in the others. Look, some of these products are, as I said, either first in class or best in class. They need. The investment that we are making, you can, let's. We talked about ZEJULA. Yes, we will be, you know, it's been launched globally. We had to do a clinical trial, whatever, and we are filing and so the process is on, committed to bring that in. Let's talk about SHINGRIX, a new asset, globally a billion-dollar product already. In India, we're creating. You're talking about investments. We are creating a team. It's a set of people. Product is going to be launched within second half, first half, end of first half.

We are putting investments today to ensure that we understand the market, work with the key stakeholders in the market and ensure that when we launch, people understand what this medicine is. Specialty medicines, right? I think unlike launching an antibiotic, unlike launching another painkiller, which I'm not demeaning that they have their own space, these products will require significant investment way before launches. Nine months, 10 months, 12 months. I'm not talking something that the industry does not also have the same methodology. We are also in that space. As I said, we will be focusing on some of these, nearly around eight, nine months prior to launch. That's the journey we are in. Yes, that's the kind of money and investment that we would need. Be for everybody? I don't think so.

They will be for certain category of people, certain set of people, and for them they will differ.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

Sir, my basically first one, what type of investments will you require to make an INR 300 crore-INR 400 crore brand, you know? Maybe you have to initially first you want to spend INR 50 crore on that because maybe that's why. See, you have to come back and.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

No, I.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

We have to create the market.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah, yeah.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

If you being the leader, I have to decide what I have to make the market. If I know I have a product potential of becoming a INR 400 crore, are you going to be investing INR 50 crore in year one?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

Balance sheet support any type of investment, you know, and definitely you would be willing to put.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah. Absolutely. The answer to that question is yes. If I can make this product to INR 300 crore-INR 400 crore, we will. The first few years, definitely you invest much more than what you would. I mean, you're not looking at the P&L at that point of time. Look, as I said, it all depends upon the nature and the kind of product that we are talking about. For product like SHINGRIX , we are making that investment. I'm telling you right now, we are seeing it right now today, right? I'm sure when I call you will say you made so much investment on SHINGRIX , you don't have the sales yet. I'm sure you will do that. But we are making that investment right now.

For the product, which is if I had to launch something else, which is in general, I may not invest that level. The product that I'm looking at in the future, as I said, invest well before eight to 10 months before. I don't think I'm gonna talk about will I launch with, will I spend INR 50 crore, will I spend INR 100 crore. It will be for an oncology product, which is run by maybe 250 key centers, 200 doctors. I may not need INR 50 crore.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

NUCALA specifically.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah, NUCALA, again. What for a product like SHINGRIX , which this is a vaccine nobody knows about it. It's a pathbreaking vaccine, can be prescribed potentially by every GP, right? We have a 10-year data protection as of now, which is fantastic. For that, where there is an apathy for vaccines, I will have to invest. Again, I'm not gonna talk about numbers. Those investments are gonna be significant. It'll depend upon the nature of the product and portfolio.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

If you see the last three years new product launches, which you have done, right? We've done both on vaccines as well as in pharma space, products. Around 5.2% of our total sales is from these new products. We got FLUARIX, we got MENVEO, we got NUCALA, we got , now TRELEGY. Three, four products, we have around 5% of our base of the last three years is from these new products. It's not. That's that more than 5%-8% is significantly big. The investments is completely dependent on what product, like Sridhar said, and we will try to as much as reallocate from the P&L. It's not all to be incremental. We'll try to find operational that will be coming through.

It's a commercial decision depending on the potential of that product in the market.

Satish Bhatt
Investment Analyst, Anvil Share& Stock Broking

One thing I've seen your 32% maybe some 10 years back, 10, 12, 15 years back. Do we see we will ever reach or that's we can peak out at 25%. Nothing wrong in growing top line and being at 25%.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

I don't want to comment on the future margins, but you know, if you bring in perspective, there were NLEM waves we were going through. We had significant waves of NLEM, which we had to experience from then what we are talking about 32%. From there we have gone down to a kind of 16-ish, 15% and we've gone a long way from there, right? Yeah, we are continuously working on that. Whatever happens, we have to move back. That's where it is.

Speaker 10

Hi, this is [Capital Group]. My question just on the clarification, you mentioned promoted brands are sales, overall sales, and vaccines is another 22. A4 is promoted. The rest would be the non-promoted, right? Remaining 16% is this that is something to be mentioned?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

No, not exactly. That trend is some decisions day one we have done, most of it is out. These are, these have a life of their own, which have a long. Sorry.

Speaker 13

Carryover.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

A long carryover effect. Yeah, thank you. You know, we don't think by investing in any of that, I'm gonna grow significantly. One reason to focus on this 80%.

Speaker 13

Okay.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

They are profitable brands.

Speaker 13

Long growth over there.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Some cases you do get volume growth, some cases very slight. The other ones, it is, more or less compression.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

It's more inclusive. Very or single-digit volume growth.

Speaker 13

What would be the expiration on the promoted brands in?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

As of now, it's been a double-digit growth.

Speaker 11

Okay. Secondly, the parent has vertically divided the business into three segments. One is the general medicine. We are a more general medicines business, very little of specialty and 20 odd percent from. The parent's focus is to increase margins on the general medicines while you may want to actually grow that business. Is there a misalignment over there where the R&D focus at the parent level may not be there, and hence you are constrained by new brands or something which want to grow these brands in India?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Look, first of all, I think I'm actually pretty much aligned with what the global teams are doing. What's my strength? My strength is general medicine. What I have that is specialty portfolio. Vaccines is a space that we can grow, and I'm getting some of the new assets. Now, on the general medicine space, to me, personally given more digitalization that is happening in this country, more online pharmacy, all of that penetration is going to increase. The most relevant brands that I have in the. As we speak today, what is it? Around 35%-40% penetration in India for health. That increase is around percent. The impact that this would have for the current general medicine portfolio is huge.

Whatever may be the group's aspirations at a global level, because global level, we are driven by innovation in some of these markets. Our aspirations, emerging market aspirations for us, and as I said, I'm a big contributor to emerging markets, continue to grow simply in the general medicines portfolio. Most of the emerging markets, we are in a very similar space and the focus is continuing to grow double digits.

Speaker 12

Hi, this is Rohit from [Centrum Broking].

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Mm-hmm.

Speaker 12

Which in private sector. One clarification on CEFTUM. The DPCO, is it CEFTUM injectable or is it the CEFTUM the tablet form has also been included? Because if it's the tablet form which has been included.

When you mentioned 10% of your revenue, I assume it's the injectable. That would, right?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

It's around 3%. 2%-3% tablet.

Speaker 12

Okay.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah. Again, none of that is. Don't wanna sit here and speculate, and I have no insider knowledge of what's gonna happen.

Speaker 12

Sure, sure. I just wanted to clarify it. Second question is, at any point of time, how much inventory sits in the CEFTUM in the shops? In a sense, so like, in the chemist shops. For example, when I go to channel check, entire derma portfolio of us, the pricing has already changed from first of April, right? So, 7-8% I think. When I see the Calpol and the AUGMENTIN, I don't see any price changes, right? So maybe the inventories point of time, you know, what is the duration?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

I won't be able to tell you exact chemist shops but in the markets, it's anywhere between 35 and 45 days is what we have. The portfolio.

Speaker 12

Okay.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

On that.

Speaker 12

Have we taken into AUGMENTIN and Calpol or we've not? You could confirm or

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

What do you mean, pricing? Well, in a pricing.

Speaker 12

Yeah.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

They're yet to hit the market. I mean, we have the quarter threes are generally U.S. When I say quarter three, I meant for the whole year. This quarter and you will see more of those new prices this quarter around.

Speaker 12

The last question. I mean, just like, you know, some of the other participants have mentioned that you're not industry-leading, like not even in the top five in terms of growth. The same happened with the parent also, right? The pharmaceutical guys like AstraZeneca, Abbott, a lot of companies outgrew GSK globally. Which is where this need to sharpen focus on consumer division, pharma division. Now that division has happened. Therefore the question is, are two, three new product launches enough? Whereas we've seen a lot of your MNC peers 10, 15, 20 products every year. Is there something that's going to change for us?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

I don't know who's launched 15, 20. I mean, I'm not too sure who would that be, but I. I mean, look, I'm not gonna talk about 20 products on. I will , the innovation assets that are coming out of that. Look, in terms of what we were 10 years ago to what we are now, as I said, situation was different, thinking was different. Today, I want to be leader in the market that I can play. I'm not in. Yes, if you put in the entire diabetes and cardiovascular market, I'm not even in the top 10, right? That does have an impact. But I'm pretty convinced that for, I can continue to grow my top.

As Juby was saying, focus on margin, and I think I have space there. Two phenomenal areas I can increase significantly. Health vaccine portfolio, new assets. New assets sitting here, I don't think I have the bandwidth, capability or I can do well with that. Will I have at least a few based on what I would see. I think the focus has been we selected. The focus on India, I personally think, again, I’m not gonna comment about the group, what I can say about for me in India, this is the best possible thing that has happened for me because as I said, India is one of the few markets where I have scale and size. I have trust, I have equity, and I walk in. That is a big positive for me from general medicines.

Need to build is my specialty portfolio without diluting my current strength that I have and my vaccine. I'm pretty clear we are on that path. Will I become a number one? Look, honestly, I'm not even thinking about that. I don't think about that at all. I wanna be relevant in the spaces that I am in, and I wanna grow in the spaces that I am in. I think if I can do that's a win for me.

Moderator

Thank you, Sridhar. We have last two questions. If you permit, we'll just extend beyond the allocated time. We have a question from Sameer Baisiwala. Sameer, hi. If you can pose your question either to Sridhar or to Juby. Over to you, Sameer.

Sameer Baisiwala
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, thank you so much. The quick question is, for the represented market that you are in, which is acute, which is antibiotics, derma, what's the sort of market growth that these categories have? Well, is it fair to say that you are a definition in the low growth areas?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Well, on that basis, if the market is growing by 8%, we don't know. I mean, again, given the under-penetration, I still think these markets will continue to grow at 8%-9%. The derma market is growing much faster, though.

Sameer Baisiwala
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. If you can share your thoughts on, you know, the bigger towns versus smaller towns. You know, how do you think about these two markets? What's the sort of penetration that you have? Are you deploying more field force? Are you getting more doctors in the smaller towns?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

No, I think look at in terms of our people. I think we have gone through an exercise, looked at it very closely. I think there is more for us to gain greater productivity of where we are operating in. Look, we cover, I think, correct me if I'm wrong, around 160-170 towns across the country easily. I think maybe more, a little bit more. I think we are not adding any more customers. We are not adding any more feet on the ground. We are looking at the activity with our existing customers. In terms of our growth, obviously we are getting a higher growth from smaller cities compared to places like some other bigger cities.

If you look at cities like Delhi, Bombay, Bangalore, Chennai, given the corporatization that I see in these places, these places have a normal tendency to get a higher set of growth, especially for the kind of products that I have, which is fundamental in the acute space or the antibiotics.

Sameer Baisiwala
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thanks. One final, if I may, with your permission. What's the sort of?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Yeah.

Sameer Baisiwala
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

How much of your cost is really imported? Have you already felt the impact of the depreciating rupee?

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

I think we got roughly INR 800 crore of imported cost base. Okay. We have roughly, if you see the FY 2022 financials, we got around INR 5 crore impact in that full year on depreciating U.S. dollar versus rupee. It's not material in the scheme of things. It's roughly INR 5 crore impact we have in the financials, reported financials.

Sameer Baisiwala
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you so much.

Moderator

Thank you. Thank you, Sameer. Thank you, Juby. Last question that was, After that, we will close with closing remarks from, Sridhar. Mitesh from Nirmal Bang. He says, "Post-COVID, multiple companies have additional capacity in vaccines and are looking to launch different vaccines. Can we see competition intensified?

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

I mean, I do think that's in, you know, vaccine is a space which is exciting everybody. Yes. Do we expect vaccines to come in? Yes. I think what GSK brings to the table is the freshness of its portfolio, the kind of newer assets that are happening globally, the acquisitions that we are making globally. I think for us it's going to be how do we continue to bring some of the newer assets of vaccines into this country. Yes, you will see more vaccines coming into the market. I think it's a good thing. There is more noise in the market. There are more people who will understand vaccines, so I'm not averse to more competition coming in. I personally think it's a good thing. More of them come and talk about adult vaccine.

I think I am in a very strong space as GSK, given the newness of my portfolio and the pipeline that I'm coming. On the pipeline, I can be pretty sure on vaccines. I potentially will get most of those into this country.

Moderator

Thank you. Thank you, Sridhar. With that, before we close, any closing remarks for those.

Sridhar Venkatesh
Managing Director, GSK India

Thank you for coming. Really wonderful to speak to all of you face-to-face, and you get this opportunity a few times. Thank you for coming. Again, from a GSK standpoint, my only message or my only focus is gonna be do a few things, do them well, focus where you can, you know, change what you can change and, you know, ensure that at the end of the day, whatever you do makes value for the patients. That's our key mantra. Thank you for all of you to come.

Juby Chandy
CFO, GSK India

Great. Thank you all for joining online, and thank you for all those who came here. Appreciate it. Thank you very much. We will now disconnect the call.

Moderator

Moderator, if you can disconnect the call. Thank you.

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