I now hand the conference over to Mr. Gavin Desa from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Raymond. Good day, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Tata Chemicals Q4 and FY 2024 earnings conference call. We have with us today, Mr. R. Mukundan, the Managing Director and CEO, and Mr. Nandakumar S. Tirumalai, the Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to mention that some of the statements made in today's discussion may be forward-looking in nature and may involve risks and uncertainties. I'd also add that this call will need to conclude by 7:45 P.M. IST. I now invite Mr. Mukundan to begin proceeding this call.
Thank you, Gavin, Gavin, and good evening and welcome everyone for the Q4 and FY 2024 earnings call. I have Nandu with, along with me for today's call. I'll highlight with a brief overview of our market conditions, then our operational highlights. Within India, I think, for demand for our main products, soda ash, while was muted, it was showing signs of recovery, mainly are boosted by detergent chemical sector. The container glass demand remains steady, and we had continued muted demand in Europe. U.S., mainly I think the demand while being stable, there are signs of some bit of a fall in the container glass, which we're watching very closely.
As far as Africa and Middle East, there continues to be pockets of strength and pockets of stable demand. In South America, while despite weaker imports, the optimism is growing, and this is despite the fact that some of the lithium markets are challenged. The view is that in the long term, in the medium term, these markets would continue to be fine. As far as China soda ash demand is concerned, it started on a strong note, and the apparent demand on January and February broadly grew by about 16%-odd compared to last year. The supply side, the key challenge continues to be the European market, where because of the loss of market, the Turkish capacity is moving to the rest of the world.
But I think the Red Sea conflict has put some higher freight rates and has meant a challenge for the material to move into Asian markets, and that has given a bit of cover. The mainland China did experience a higher soda ash supply also because of the imports which and they remained a net importer in Q4 2024. We will continue to focus to monitor the European soda ash market, which continues to be the main cause for our worry. In terms of Tata Chemicals, the overall sales volume grew sequentially, despite adverse price movement on account of market factor. In India, we saw the highest salt production and sales, and we had to moderate a bit of the soda ash volumes, mainly to make sure to maximize salt production.
But with the incoming hooking up of the boiler, we expect both soda ash and salt to continue to grow. As far as U.S. domestic market, while the absolute volumes in the domestic may have fallen, the future trend is expected to be positive, and we continue to track very good production numbers as well as we will be having very good shipment numbers going forward. In U.K., the soda ash did move to fixed price margin. However, demand and volume have fallen sharply, and we continue to sort of maintain our production very close to the market demand conditions. Rallis had a soft quarter and while domestic market is fine, the international market continues to have challenge.
They are well positioned to continue to improve their performance, and they have a new leadership, which is rethinking the strategy and approach to market. In conclusion, despite a difficult operating environment, company has continued to maintain stable performance. Global demand is showing signs of stability and a bit of recovery, but we need to be cautious because of the geopolitical instability, high interest rate environment still continuing. We expect sustainability to be a long-term trend, and hence, the market segments which we have stated, that solar glass and lithium will continue to be the growth engine. Our focus is on timely expansion of timely execution of expansion projects, most of them are getting commissioned in the month of May. So towards the quarter two, you will start seeing additional volumes being coming in the market.
We also are continuing to focus on customer engagement and cost management. And with this, this will be aided by our digitalization effort. So outside the challenging condition, we continue to remain positive. We had to take a non-cash charge, which I'm sure Mr. Nandakumar will highlight during the Q&A session. And also we would also address the issue of the NCD, the fundraise, which has been highlighted in the results meeting during the Q&A. So we would be happy to get into the Q&A session directly and address your queries as we move forward. Raymond, we can enter Q&A.
Sure. Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask questions may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handset as well when asking a question. Also, we'd like to request participants to please limit your questions to two per participant. Should you have a follow-up question, we request you to rejoin the queue. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.
... Saurabh Jain from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you so much. So obvious first two questions are: Can you provide more details around what is the purpose of this NCDs? And also explain more on the non-cash charge, please.
So I can take that, Mukundan?
Yes, go ahead, Nandu.
Yeah, okay. So on the NCD being issued, going forward, that is basically to look at where we can use the money for de-leveraging other geographies. So there is arbitrage opportunity available in terms of interest rates. The purpose is that, on the impairment, we do our annual impairment exercise every year, ending in March, based upon the trigger. And in U.K., there are three plants. One is in salt, one is bicarb, one is soda ash in Lostock, all are nearby. So this plant in Lostock has been impaired as per Ind AS as required as per the accounting standards, because the future cash flows at this point in time are lower than what the holding value of the assets are.
It's a non-cash, one-time charge in the books of accounts, so it's one particular plant, mainly in the U.K..
When you say, you know, the write-down of these assets, is it the inventory? Or no, we need more clarity on that side.
It's fixed assets, basically. So, you see, we check for all the balance sheet assets in terms of what, what actually work. So inventory checks for the NRV, so like that. So fixed assets are checked against the, what is the future discounted cash flow of the assets, which is going to perform over point in time. And every March, as per the part of the account closing, we need to look at the, each asset we have across the globe, which is in U.S., India, and Kenya. And this particular asset in Lostock had an impairment based upon the projections of cash flows, which we have done, based upon the view of the market and soda ash right now.
This is essentially all of it is relating to plant and machinery, no, no inventory, nothing, right?
Point number five, we explain the exact impairment in the notes as well.
Okay. Sir, this is, this is not inventory. This is mainly, mainly-
[crosstalk]
Okay. And, can we expect more of such adjustments in future? Because so though you have said once in a year, but, do we expect any such surprises from any other geographies or U.K. on this side?
I found that-
There is not nothing. In fact, our view has been that Europe has been challenged, and I think this is a reflection of the challenge which I've been sort of highlighting to all the analysts. And it is tested. All the assets are certainly tested, but I think in terms of the pressure on that, in terms of future cash flow pricing and the contribution, I think this is one which was under pressure, and we've taken the charge this quarter. We don't anticipate any major asset or anything under pressure, including our operations in India, Kenya, or in U.S., all our operations.
Got it. And, NCD changes-
But even within, sort of even within U.K., I think this is our operations in salt, middle bits are absolutely fine. I think this is mainly related to the soda ash plant in Lostock. Our pharmaceutical salt plant, our let's say the high-grade bicarb plant, they are all absolutely in fine condition. We continue to operate these plants. It is only that the contribution these plants can generate cannot the value of the fixed asset, which is there in the books.
Understood. On the NCD, it is just, you know, a kind of refinancing, right? There is no fresh investments that you are going to deploy with this money.
The purpose right now is to look at opportunity for refinancing debts overseas, by, you know, borrowing in India to get arbitrage.
Any timelines on this side? Have you decided yet?
I think in the next few months.
Okay. Okay, understood. Thank you so much. If I may ask another question, you know, the commentary seems to be more like-
[crosstalk]
The next question is from Abhijit Akella, from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. On the world demand and supply environment, if you could please help us with, you know, your estimates of what the demand situation, demand decline might have been in FY 2023 and your outlook for 2024. And also, you've mentioned that the market is oversupply, so is it possible to quantify how much the extent of oversupply is right now in the market? Thank you.
Yeah, I think, Abhijit, the broad oversupply demand-supply mismatch is about 1 million tons-1.2 million tons in the European market, because that's the demand disruptions which happened and the supplies have remained. And unless the capacities go out and we haven't had any announcements of any capacity go out, I think this environment will continue and this material will tend to flow out. The other big demand-supply area has been China, where we had 5 million tons come in. But effectively, that material is still finding its home only in China. It is not finding its home outside. And that is mainly because I think it fulfills some local requirements and local logistics requirements.
We anticipate that if at all there's any pressure which will come, it will be from the Chinese market in case the real demand there falls. As of now, what we can only say is that the Chinese prices have more or less seem to have bottomed out. They were at close to about CNY 1,900 or CNY 1,950, and they've moved probably to about CNY 2,000. They are range bound in that number. Last year, this number was close to about CNY 2,500, CNY 2,400. So there is a dip, there is a fall, but I think what we are seeing on the ground is that this is probably hit the bottom.
The same is the pricing commentary as far as India is concerned. The prices, including the import prices, are more or less holding. And the demand environment continues to be fine. So really, as I mentioned in all the calls, the trigger for demand supply balancing has to start from Europe, and hopefully that will get addressed over a period of time.
Thank you. Just one other thing on our capacity expansion plans. In the context of this oversupply, you know, any sort of second thoughts you might have about some of the expansions say in the U.S. or Africa or-
I think, so, I believe the point is that I think we will continue to expand where it is competitive, in terms of serving the market. I think we've got very good markets in India and U.S. These economies are doing very well. And I think, these are also, in terms of cost to serve the local as well as international markets, very competitive. So our work on this in this direction continues. Kenya, as you also know, is a low-cost asset which is able to serve Indian and Southeast Asian market very competitively. And, ours is a dispersed expansion. It is not concentrated in one site. So the expansion of 250,000 tons in India is almost, it's done, actually it's getting commissioned as we speak.
So the hookup should be happening in the month of May. In terms of the next phase of another 300,000 tons, that work is apace in India. Kenya also would increase the capacity by 300,000 tons-400,000 tons in U.S.. This we are continuing to pursue. These are all in design phase now, and implementation would start shortly, and we will start highlighting the CapEx and the other, other numbers to all of you. And since all these are brownfield, they are very value-creating.
Thank you. The next question is from Vivek Rajamani from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the presentation. So in your comments, you mentioned that, you know, you're expecting the U.S. domestic volumes and volumes in general to be positive going forward and expecting good shipment numbers. Just wanted to clarify, you know, where you're seeing, you know, these demand trends that support this, assumption of yours? That's the first question.
Yeah. The issue is about our own capability in terms of operation and delivery. I think the plant has had record numbers actually in the month of February and March, and the operations continue to post record production numbers. As you know, the U.S. operation is, because of the cost structure, able to move the material to most parts of the world. So it will continue to sort of serve the domestic demand as it continues to grow all along North America, which is in U.S. and Mexico and Canada put together. In addition to that, we will also be able to ship this material to our customers overseas, mainly in LATAM, Pacific, Asia Pacific region, and some part of it would certainly go to Europe.
We've already shipped one shipment to Europe, and also one shipment to China in the last quarter, and this quarter.
Sure, sir. Thank you so much. Just one clarification here, you didn't mention that container glass is still a bit of a struggle in the U.S., correct?
Yeah. This continues with respect to, I think, what started off as a bit of a challenge in the beer demand, I think is continuing. We do hope it will stabilize because the market conditions from the broad economic point of view does remain positive. We do know that it will become, have an even greater positive bias once interest rates, start to trend down, which has been long coming. Which is why I was a bit cautious in my commentary, saying that one is on the geopolitical conflict, depending on what happens in which region, could provide us, opportunity. For example, the Red Sea conflict in some markets has given us a better opportunity.
But in some of the points about interest rate, if it sort of starts to trend, I think will also be an opportunity. But if it remains high for longer, I think we will have to continue to watch our continuing markets. But as of now, what we are seeing is that there is no more increase in interest rates. They seem to have peaked. The prices of the soda ash have almost bottomed out. So from all perspectives, this is where we are at a point where it can only trend a little bit up.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ankur Periwal from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir, thanks for the opportunity. Just continuing with U.S., given that large part of the sales volumes that we do are long-term in nature, contracted, will we say to say that quarterly EBITDA run rate will be similar as what we see in this quarter?
Yeah. So I think broadly, if you look at the domestic, more or less, I think for the first three quarters, the numbers are more or less contracted. I think there is some open quantity in this Q4, which we will close during the course of the year. And exports also, for example, in Q1, it is fully contracted. Q2, I think, is close to about 80% contracted. So we would continue to see similar trends here.
Sure. And the same breakup in terms of, you know, short-term and long-term contracts, how do we stack up in the U.K., given, you know, the profitability has been slightly under pressure there, and the demand profile has not been as good as well?
Yeah, I think the customers are now, because they also understand that the prices are more or less bottomed out, they are beginning to engage on a longer term contract now. Because you see, normally the customer behavior is when the prices haven't yet bottomed out, they would want to test whether it's a bottom. Since the prices have more or less hit the bottom, most customers are willing to engage on a longer term. Our team always wants to have a mix... but really, we would continue to sort of work on a combination of the two. But I want to give the flexibility to our sales and marketing team in the way they want to sort of build this whole piece.
Usually we tend to keep at least 50%-60% under contract, which are, which are longer term in nature, so as to provide stability to our sales outcomes.
Thank you. The next question is from Riya Mehta, from Aequitas Investment Consultancy. Please go ahead.
Hello, thank you for giving me the opportunity. My first question is, when we see soda ash volumes for India, they have declined on a quarter-on-quarter basis. With us ramping up the new brownfield capacity of 250,000 tons in May, how do you see the volumes turning out to be under capacity utilization?
Yeah, so this quarter, as I mentioned, we did ramp down a bit of the production. It was actually constrained by production, not by market, and largely because we had a certain amount of utility shortage because our hookup of the boiler hadn't happened. It's happening in the month of May, actually, and the expanded capacity is also coming on stream. Also, we did increase the production of salt to ensure the shipment and the markets were fully met, market needs were fully met. Having said that, I think this constraint will not be with us post-May when all the capacities are hooked up.
So really, the number which you're seeing in Q4 is a constrained number because of utility constraints which we had faced during the quarter.
Okay. How do you see the ramping up of the brownfield capacity of 250,000 tons in India?
I think-
By then, do we get the full capacity utilization?
Yeah. Once, once, once the capacity is hooked up, I think we would probably tend to sort of see full capacity reaching in about 90-odd days or so, not more than that.
Thank you. The next question is from S Ramesh, from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
Good evening, and thank you very much. So if you look at the Chinese capacity addition of 5 million tons, wouldn't that be given if it operates at full capacity, wouldn't that actually add to the excess supply, given whatever consumption, if you take 60 million-65 million consumption, it's about 10%. So how do you see that full, you know, production in China, Inner Mongolia, coming in, to the extent that, you know, although it's consumed within China, what are the overall Asian, you know, in consumption, it kind of, you know, replaced with whatever is being imported by that production. So wouldn't that lead to excess supply in Asia?
So you would normally tend to state, but I think if you really look at what has happened in the marketplace, the Chinese material has tended to continue to be in the same proportion as they've been exporting in the past. That has not been the case, and the reason for that is, I think, so some of the units are beginning to operate at a lower operating rate, are moderating it to the level. And I mentioned this also in the last call, the natural capacity tends to put pressure on the synthetic capacity. Most synthetic capacity are near the coast. Further, when they export, they come under even more pressure because they get lesser net realization. So the incremental volume, they move from domestic to export.
Because of the pressure they face from natural capacity, tends to be at a lower pricing. So the this is an issue, phenomenon we have seen in every market, so this will play out, and and it's playing out exactly in the manner which we had highlighted. Now, the issue which we need to worry about is not so much on the supply side. I would rather be focused on the demand side. If the Chinese real estate and other elements in the marketplace play very negatively for them, and the real demand starts to compress, that's when we should be worrying.
As of now, China has been positive in demand growth, and, more or less, I think from our perspective, it has not played out the way, at least the 5 million ton capacity coming on stream should have played out. So I would fundamentally say that we are watching the situation closely. The Chinese demand in terms of the real estate was initially balanced out by the increase in solar glass demand. Also, the demand for lithium carbonate with the booming EV sales, but we need to watch all these sectors. So I, I'm for not once saying that it is gonna be, there may not be any impact from the Chinese market at all. All I'm saying is that we are observing the market trends now.
The continued pressure seems to be coming out of Europe and, not out of, China.
So the next thought is, now, if you look at U.K., before this impairment, you are being done positive down, year-over-year. So, in the U.K. and U.S., what is the kind of reduction in the contract prices, and how do you see the margins play out in U.K. and U.S. from the current margins, which are obviously in that, you know, low range of around $40-$50?
So I think there has been a compression in terms of the contribution margin in the U.K. And I think Nandu can correct me, it has broadly been in the range of about $30-$40 odd per ton. And that's created a let's say the financial numbers to do the impairment charge. We as of now don't anticipate any major change in that number. It will continue to be under pressure. And which is why we've taken the call to take the financial charge.
Thank you. The next question is from Arjun Khanna from Kotak Mahindra Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question. So given where the market is right now, how would we envisage our debt structure? We are raising NCDs, but if you look at the debt, it's roughly up to INR 65 crore year-on-year. So what is our thought process in terms of the net debt situation?
So broadly, this is also another issue, which you have highlighted, Arjun. See, because our debt is denominated in U.S. dollars, I think there is also a value increase which happens due to, depreciation of Indian rupee. So once we sort of substitute this with Indian debt, I think at least that increment will stop happening. And, idea is to, as, as Nandu has highlighted, there is, there is certainly, benefit to having an Indian rupee-denominated debt and, and, pay down the U.S. dollar-denominated debt. I think that's the opportunity we are looking at. This is not to fund any expansion. Expansion will continue to be funded through internal accruals. This is to replace some of our existing, dollar debt with rupee debt. Nandu, you may want to correct me if I'm wrong.
I think it's correct, Mukundan. So actually, in terms of the reason is that it is to refile some debt, and if you look at the going forward, as of now in India, the major CapEx is over. Mithapur has been capital getting capitalized now. So we'll be having, you know, a bit lesser CapEx going forward. That will help us in the overall FCF being better. So, therefore, that's where we are actually in terms of the overall debt number. As I already mentioned, but if the price improves, then people start repaying more debt. As of now, we are looking at a free cash flow, which would be slightly better than past, because of lower CapEx.
So, what does that mean, sir? Slightly better than past?
If you look at the CapEx we had in the last two years' time, we had the expansion happening in India, Mithapur, okay? That has been now more or less done, and we have just capitalized some part of it in March and some part in May or June. So the next phase of CapEx will start happening now over a point in time. So the major bulk of the CapEx in India has, has got done now. I mean-
Because we have mentioned in the slide that we are doing INR 2,000 crores of CapEx at 5, 25-28.
Yeah, that's over next four years, no? Whereas we had the last expansion over last, last three, four years' time, so the pace of CapEx was much, much higher last two years' time. So the next phase will happen over three or four years' time actually.
Expansion in the U.S. and Kenya, which we had announced, are 700,000.
Oh, that will also happen over the next couple of years' time, because we can add different.
Yeah, yeah. Okay. So I think, Arjun, let me just highlight that what Nandu is saying is that the debt between India and Singapore is not likely to move up. In fact, it's probably likely to trend down as we start to have positive cash earnings. Because the bulk of the CapEx cycle, large CapEx growth cycle is almost over, and we will capitalize all of this in the month of May, June in that period. In terms of the U.S. and the next phase of expansion, as I said, it's in design phase, so there will be a lull in between. The CapEx expenditure follows the S curve: It starts slow, peaks up very rapidly, and then starts to slow down towards the end. And the S curve normally runs for about 18-24 months.
So we expect a lean period to continue at least during the course of this year and maybe part of the next year before it ramps up again, by which time we would probably have enough visibility and also positive earnings across the board. In terms of paydown of debt, the only one which we probably need to sort of look at paydown, Kenya is already having no debt. Maldives has no debt. India has no debt. And Singapore debt will be partly addressed through this NCD, and we'll pay that down in India. In terms of the U.S. debt, I think we had committed three years to pay down that debt, and first year of that cycle is over. We have committed $100 million.
I think we have repaid about $95 million at the end of this period, and we will continue to look at opportunities and our own estimate. Sorry, we paid down $110 million against $100, and we will continue to look at opportunities during the next two years. The maximum we see it increasing, instead of being three-year paydown, it may have become four, a four-year paydown. Our calculations are landing somewhere there. So there is a change, but I think we will work our way to make sure that can, to keep the commitment we have made to pay down in three years' time. First year has run well. The next two years may get extended by another year, but that's the maximum we see, but we'll work our way, and we can keep it to two-year periods, too.
Thank you. The next question is from Sumant Kumar, from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. My question regarding U.S.. We have seen a QOQ improvement in U.S. solar volume, but still EBITDA per ton per KG per ton we are still subdued. And in Q3, we have exceptional loss also, one-time expense or one-time loss for the U.S. business when we... So what is the going ahead in next couple of year EBITDA per ton we are expecting? And what are the key reasons for that the subdued EBITDA per per ton this quarter?
So, on the volume, let me address that, broadly. Sumant, if you look at the last quarter, Q3, our export volumes were broadly 298, 298,000 tons. This quarter, the number is 370. So there is an increase. There's also increase in the domestic, which is 231,000 tons to 266,000 tons. So sequentially, there is increased by number. And as I said, our unit is doing well, and we are trending well. Last quarter, thirty, there was an issue of broadly about 50,000 tons-60,000 tons getting late because of the various shipment as well as the Union Pacific, as well as internal maintenance and shutdown, which we had.
But that is now behind us, which is why you see the numbers coming up. As far as the EBITDA is concerned, largely, I think the domestic EBITDA is stable. We haven't seen anything more than $44-$45 change in the EBITDA number, compared to last year. The biggest fall has been on the export side, where the EBITDA number has almost dipped by about, I think anywhere between $90-$100 in terms of what it was previous year to previous quarter, previous year to this year in terms of... So overall, I think it's a blend, and, so I, I'll just leave it at that point.
So, you are saying that your quarter-over-quarter export margin has deteriorated. When we talk about what we are getting at, China is doing good in the demand side of solar glass, okay? And then you are talking about Europe is a problem, problem. So what are other factors impacting export business for us here?
So, fundamentally, I think if you look at it, the export realization overall has dropped. I think the international prices overall have dropped in all markets. While in some market it may be, less so, more other markets may be more, but I think it has overall dropped by anywhere between $100 million-$120 million, $120 per ton, and that continues to reflect in the export pricing. And in the contribution and it sort of straightaway falls into your EBITDA margin. More accurately, if you look at it, the current year, the current quarter, so, NSR is down from the previous quarter in export to almost $60-odd .
The fall between the same quarter last year, because last year, this quarter was the peak, because the prices at reset is down by $150 broadly, so on export side. But on the domestic side, it is hardly a movement of $2 from last year, and it's hardly a movement of $8 from the previous quarter. Really, the change is not in the domestic pricing or domestic realization, it is mainly on the export. This is likely to sort of continue in the near term. We do expect at least some positive changes happening only towards the Q4 of this current financial year. The next two, three quarters will trend to the similar number.
Thank you. The next question is from Rohit Nagaraj, from Centrum Broking. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. So my first question is, you mentioned in your opening remarks that, China demand improved by about 15% during the first two months. So could you just help us to explain, which in all segments are doing well in China in terms of user industry, given that, real estate has not picked up, plus, you know, on EV side also, there has been some slowdown. So just your perspective on the same. Thank you.
So I think it is across all sectors, Rohit, and I think this is why the commentary, the numbers from China are not matching the commentary we hear on real estate. They do seem to be doing well on solar glass. They do seem to be doing still on the lithium carbonate processing, even though the prices have fallen. So most of these sectors seem to be doing well, but we need to sort of watch out, mainly because if this persistence continues. My understanding of the real estate there in China is that the commentary is negative because the debt portion of anybody's balance sheet is wider, the equity is still left in the unit.
So there's been a reduction in the pricing, and which could ultimately lead to some bit of erosion in the demand. But more importantly, it's gonna be very important to watch out how the unbuilt units there in residential are dealt with by government. Do they take it through a mechanism for completion, or they don't take it through a mechanism for completion, like it was done in India? Especially if you look at some of the projects in and around Delhi, Noida. So we still got to watch that resolution. It remains an issue of pressure, so we will watch that space.
Sure. Thanks for the answer. Second question is, you mentioned generally the European demand remains the key driver, and if that demand doesn't improve, probably given the market is oversupplied, will the pricing environment generally remain benign throughout 2024? Thank you.
See, the basic issue for that has been the supplies out of Turkey, which normally would have gone into Europe, are now moving into other parts of the world. And that number is fairly high, and that is causing a bit of dissonance in all parts of the world. For that to correct itself, it is not a demand question, because we are not even questioning whether demand will go up. Our view is that the supply within Europe has to come down, which means some of the units have to slow down or may have to take a very difficult view of what they do with the capacity there. So, and we have to watch that space. That is a process which will happen, or maybe most likely will happen.
Thank you. The next question is from Nitesh Dhoot from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Just a quick one from my side. Typically, how many days of shutdown is taken in the state, in Q1? And, will it be sufficient for integration of capacity with the existing plant?
So this quarter in Mithapur, where the hookup is happening, it's broadly a 10-day plant shutdown. We are building out the inventory to make sure our customers are fully serviced. It should normally be around that period, not more than that.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you. We'll be able to take one last question. We take the last question from the line of Saket Kapoor, from Kapoor Company. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Namaskar, Mukundan, and thank you for the opportunity. Also, you did mention about lots of material moving from Turkey to other parts of the world, as there is a demand disruption in Europe. My question is particularly, what has led to this demand disruption in Europe, and how will this situation improve going ahead? What has been the import into India for the last quarter and for the full year as a whole?
Yeah. In terms of the demand in Europe, Saket, I think the main issue is they've lost the access to... You know, you know, because of the conflict there, unfortunate conflict, that they've lost access to the cheap Russian gas. And energy is a very important, has an important role in most industries, including our consuming industry, and that creates its own set of stress, and the high inflation environment and that creates a cycle of demand for all sectors. So it is driven off the consequence of what is happening in that space. And we have seen that there's been no resolution in terms of the no resolution in terms of the for almost two years now.
While the prices and gas prices in Europe have come down, they are still three times the peak level. So really, that is the key driver why the European situation is really difficult. And the reason I said that, it may be, it may lead to some kind of a permanent way of, a shift of, let's say, active capacity, is mainly because many of the units will find it challenging, including the consuming industry of the soda ash itself. So, let me leave it there, because, I think we've got to watch it sector by sector and, that is something which will play out.
This has not been the situation in other markets, which are supplied by a very different level of energy source. The U.S. is very competitive in its gas energy source. China continues to have a mix of coal and renewable and gas now increasingly coming from the Russian side. And also, India has had. India was not exposed to this. So these markets were not exposed to the. So I think they are coping better than the European market. In terms of the consequence of that, what has happened in India, broadly, we've seen about 500,000 tons additional imports. And, in a market which is close to about, so it used to be in the range of broadly 600,000 tons import. That has crossed a million, 1.1 million.
The market demand in India has been fairly stable last year. Compared to the year 2020, year end of 2023, where the demand was 4 million tons, the demand this year has been 4.056 million tons. There's been a 20 to 30 thousand increase in the demand condition in India. It has not fallen, it has remained stable. But the domestic supply to the market has been depressed because it was almost to the tune of 500,000 tons increase in the imports, which have primarily come from this source.
Right. Right. And sir, if you look at the freight and forwarding charges, that has gone up by above INR 100 crore, Q-on-Q. So, could you please explain the reason for the same? And in continuation to that, the carbon capture program, which we have done for the U.K. government, has this done for the plants where we have taken the impairment also?
Sorry, on carbon capture, what was the question?
Sir, on the carbon capture, we have done some work for the U.K. government, and we have spent some money on the carbon capture. Now, when we have taken impairment, does that value also goes down? I mean, does it have any correlation with the carbon capture program also?
No.
No correlation. There's no impairment.
Yeah, there is no impact of that. In fact, even the units which have been impaired are continuing to produce, Saket. It is not related to operations. So we'll continue to serve our customers as long as it is profitable. But, the soda ash plant, which is in Lostock, is not making adequate margin to cover its asset base, which is why it has been written down. CCU has no bearing on this. Operation of CCU has no bearing on this. That continues apace, as well as our bicarbonate and salt production continue as was planned before.... And in fact, I think, to clarify your point, Saket, U.K. will continue to focus on the more value-added space of bicarbonate, salt, and pharmaceutical salt. They'll continue to run them very efficiently, and they are profitable.
Out of GBP 25 million EBITDA, which we normally telegraph as a sustainable number there, GBP 15 million usually should come from the other two, which is bicarb and salt. And I do think that, that could continue to click, in fact, climb further, as the pharmaceutical salt plant also gathers momentum.
Thank you very much. We'll have to take that as the last question. I would now like to hand the conference back to the management team for closing comments.
Thank you, and thank you everyone on the call. I think, there's been several queries on the NCD as well as on the impairment. Let me again reiterate that the NCD is primarily for de-leveraging or financing the external debt with in Indian debt. And I think, we would want to make sure that, in rupee denominator, it remains constant with pay down with the cash earning capability out of India. In terms of the non-cash write down, it is primarily on soda ash, where, as Nandu has explained, the underlying asset versus the cash earning capability, I think we had to match it, and we took the write down.
Our strategy in U.K. continues to be to focus on the value-added products to grow further, and we continue to engage on that piece. The rest of the parts of the world and our operations, the salt will continue to get adequate support and continue to grow. Our focus on bringing on stream the current project within Mithapur, I think will show fruition during this quarter. And the next phase of expansion, I think the design work is in place, and we will come back to its specifics. But broadly, these will be highly value creating because of the downstream nature of these expansions. We continue to remain focused on our customers. We continue to watch them very closely.
As of now, the market is in a very stable, let me put it, that in, in a stable bias. While there are certain headwinds, which we need to watch out, high interest rates and, and the element of, some sectors in some of the markets, coming under pressure, the overall demand situation continues stable. There is a continued focus on making sure that our cost structure is addressed and the most cost competitive. At the same time, we are continuing to focus on our sustainability effort in terms of decarbonization and digitalization. Thank you all, and we look forward to meeting you once again in quarter one.
Thank you very much. On behalf of Tata Chemicals, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect your lines.