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Q1 24/25

Aug 5, 2024

Operator

Now hand the conference over to Mr. Gavin Desa from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Gavin Desa
Senior Partner and Account Head, CDR India

Thank you, Sagar. Good day, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Tata Chemicals Q1 FY 2025 Earnings Conference C all. We have with us today Mr. R. Mukundan, the Managing Director and CEO, and Mr. Nandakumar Tirumalai, the Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to mention that some of the statements made in today's discussion may be forward-looking in nature and may involve risks and uncertainties. I'd also like to state that the duration of this call will not exceed 55 minutes. I now invite Mr. R. Mukundan to begin proceedings of the call. Over to you, Mukundan.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Thank you, Gavin. Good evening. Welcome, everyone, to our quarter one FY 2025 earnings call. I have alongside with me Mr. Nandakumar Tirumalai, our CFO. I'll start the discussion with a brief overview of our operational highlights, following which Nandakumar will walk you through financial performance. Overall, on the industry, I think the demand has been fairly stable across all end users. Demand for detergents, as you usually know, within India, goes through a bit of moderation during monsoon and then picks up again very, very strongly after winter and goes on to remain robust. Demand for flat container glass and solar glass is good.

In North America, while the demand is flat, Europe experienced muted demand, and Chinese soda ash demand was fairly strong between January and May. Chinese soda demand was between January and May, and demand for solar glass and lithium carbonate was on a strong footing within China. In America, the demand was more or less flat. Imports into India, while they did go up between January to May, it has moderated post-May, and mainly on account of higher freight rates due to tensions in the Middle East. U.S. operational issues, most of the companies have been able to resolve them, and most of the units in the U.S. are operating at normal speed, normal operating levels.

Chinese soda operation, however, was slightly reduced due to some issues in Inner Mongolia, and this also partly we heard was because of some issues related to quality improvement which was needed in the product. So overall, I think the demand-supply situation remains fairly balanced, and we do believe that this situation is likely to continue for a couple of more quarters. Sequentially, companies' overall sales volume grew marginally, and India had stable volumes. Prices were lower.

During the quarter, we commissioned 230,000 tons of soda ash at Mithapur. This capacity will come on stream in the coming months. Export market in the U.S. saw low volume, but between the last year of the quarter one of last year and this year, it is an increase. Sequentially, the export pricing was better. U.K. had stable volumes. However, the prices had softened. Kenya saw marginally higher volume and marginally higher prices sequentially. While this quarter one was a mixed quarter, domestic business performed well, and there was a pricing pressure on export markets. Overall, I think this quarter has played out exactly as we had anticipated. The operations have performed to a plan. We continue to focus on ensuring that we serve our customers well. We focus on being cost-competitive and continue to deliver on the CapEx plan on schedule.

We would bring on stream several of the CapEx which we had planned, including the bicarbonate capacity of 70,000 and also the pharmaceutical salt by the second half of this year in the U.K.. So all in all, it's focus on operations, efficient operations, and servicing customers well. With this, I will hand over to the moderator to open for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question is from the line of Saurabh Jain from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Yeah, thank you so much for the opportunity. My first question is regarding one of the U.S. peers announcing a price increase a few months back. Have Tata Chemicals also taken such kind of a price increase? If yes, then what is the expectation on the margin profile in the U.S. going forward?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Yeah, actually, U.S. you would see that the domestic market is mostly annual contracts. So you would find right up to December, right through December, the domestic prices will remain the same. They're moving a very narrow band and almost stable. However, the export prices, we have seen a bit of up movement in the Southeast Asian markets, and we will continue to be in sync with the market.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Do you expect that the benefit will flow to you in the second quarter, which may result in further improvement in the margin profile for U.S.?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

The sales to Southeast Asia, sequentially, as we booked the orders, I think will come into play in the export markets. The domestic markets, I think it will be better that we speak to you closer to the month of January when the new contracts will be negotiated.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

What I want to understand, on the export side at least, would you see a benefit on the margins in the future quarters?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Yeah, I think as we service these orders, they are at a slightly higher price.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. So do you believe more than $50 a ton kind of a graph might be possible?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

No, I think the move in the market has been between $10-$20 at best.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. Understood. Again, the same thing for U.K. What happened in the U.K. geography this quarter? There has been a collapse in the margin. I thought it's a fixed margin contract.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

The U.K., there is a bit of an impact of volume. The second one is that I think there's been a marginal, there's been a drop in the earnings which we used to get from the energy business, which means we were supplying wind energy to the grid. That has impacted the margin for soda ash because so I think in the U.K., we expect a similar kind of margin to run through the year.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. What you delivered in the first quarter, this kind of margin would continue for the rest of the year?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Yes.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. My last question before I join back the queue is that there has been a lot of rainfall in some of the Gujarat regions, very heavy rainfall. Are you seeing any sort of possible production disruptions for your solar? That may lead to further fall from the vendors. Is that something kind of a scenario that is happening?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Actually, as far as we are concerned, we will continue to, at least I can speak up to today. We expect to be on track for delivering numbers as we have planned. It should be numbers in terms of volume ahead of what we had last year.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. Okay. So, no disruption as such, is that the interference?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

We haven't seen, and we'll have to wait till the month of September because monsoon seasons are fairly elongated. Hopefully, the situation remains as we have seen up to.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Thank you so much. I'll join back the queue.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumant Kumar from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Sir, can you talk about the Kenya sequential margin decline? Is it all because of the prices that is formed that our margin has declined sequentially?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

The Kenya margin is, I think, in terms of the total margin, it is in sync with what the market pricing is in sync with what we are seeing across the board. But however, there was a slightly higher variable cost, mainly due to the cost which we had in terms of realization, which is really the shipping and transportation cost is slightly higher this quarter. We expect them to normalize.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Can you talk about the demand-supply scenario currently in soda ash?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

We are fully sold out, and we expect to remain fully sold out.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ankur Periwal from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Yeah. Hi sir. Thanks for the opportunity. First question on the India business, on the capacity expansion for sodium bicarbonate. Just trying to get some clarity. We have already expanded 70,000 tons, and we are going to expand 70 further, is it?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Yeah. 70 has already come on stream. I think another 70 will come somewhere around October, middle October end.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Sure. And this will aggregate to around 290,000 tons of capacity?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

That's right.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

How do you look at the volume growth in the sodium bicarbonate here? Historically, the numbers have been slightly slower, but given that we have ample capacity now, any thoughts there?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

I think your point about full utilization, I think this should happen through the year. So we expect the first stream should get fully absorbed during the year and the balance maybe by quarter one of next year. It may be even faster than that, but I think our teams are working to make sure the market is able to absorb the volume of the sodium bicarbonate. India has much lesser consumption of sodium bicarbonate than other markets, and we do expect that this supply will drive some of the demand.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Sure. So sorry if I got you right. You're saying optimum utilization by the end of this financial year?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Yeah. What I was saying is that the first 0.7 should get fully absorbed during the year, and second 0.7, depending on how the market evolves. Our plan was to sort of get it done by quarter one of next year, but it could be faster depending on how we are able to service the market.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Sure. Last question on the domestic, which is India's EBITDA improvement on a Q1, Q2 basis. Any specific drivers here? How should we look at that business, that margin improvement?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Probably it's going to be stable. I don't think there's going to be most of the numbers will be stable. There's a question on Kenya. I think that would also normalize because there was some one-off shipping and one-off variable costs which sort of impacted us. So we see nothing on horizon which is going to impact our elements right through December.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. Fair enough, sir. That's it from my side. Thank you a lot.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vivek Rajamani from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Two questions. For Q1 pricing on both the India and the US, would it be fair to say that the improvement that we saw in the implied EBITDA and margins was more due to the supply-driven relief that we were seeing in this quarter because you mentioned demand was broadly flat? That was the first question on pricing. And secondly, on demand, if you could just give some color on demand by geography and some key markets in terms of what you've been seeing after the June quarter. Thank you.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

So in terms of demand situation, let me just say this that what I'm saying, you might take it with a bit of caution because while I said there's a stable demand, Europe is an area where muted demand is being seen. If you leave that aside, there are some growth we have seen in Chinese demand. We need to be very watchful whether that continues because the general news on all other fronts is that there could be some bit of softness if things don't go well. But I think the issue is that while the news has been around, the demand has been fairly good. So we are not able to sort of figure out the equation as it's playing out, so we remain watchful.

As far as South America and North America is concerned, especially on the South American side, you would know already the lithium prices are at the bottom and the solar glass production also. The supply is ahead of the demand seen by the module manufacturers. So what we are seeing is that the for soda ash has continued to be fine, but the market conditions hopefully for our customers have bottomed out and it should start improving. They've gone through a bit of a difficult period in the last two quarters. We are watching if there are any signs of that happening. At the same time, I think on the Chinese side, we need to be watchful of any signs of softness. So on one side, the market could move in the positive direction. On the other side, you would have a potential.

So that's why we said it's balanced right up to quarter three. But as signals come, we will sort of highlight them to you maybe in the next quarter if we pick up anything different.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Sure, sir. That's very helpful. And if I could just clarify on the supply side as well, can you see a significantly more supply-driven relief this quarter because you did mention that there were issues on Inner Mongolia?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Correct. I think supply side, as I said, there's been an increase in trade rates, mainly on account of the tension which you're seeing in the Middle East and other parts of the world. And that has led to some kind of certainly some material not arriving into the Asian market. The second piece on the supply side, as I mentioned, within China again, especially for solar glass, which needs low iron, what we have picked up is that Inner Mongolian plant iron content is slightly high, so unable to service the solar glass demand. So there are very product-specific issues on supply side. Barring these two, the rest of the market, we are not seeing any major changes in terms of contraction of supply. So there's one quality-related supply contraction. Another one is a supply chain-related contraction.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhijit Akella from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Yeah. Thank you. So the India costs seem to have declined quite meaningfully on a quarter-over-quarter basis, leading to some margin expansion. So just wondering what the reasons for those might have been. And in the U.S. as well, we've seen some improvement in realization this quarter along with EBITDA per ton. So if you could please just shed some light on both these aspects.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

So it's mainly on account of sequentially to see the energy and fuel costs and the cost of some of the materials that have trended down. And that has driven mostly the production. So if you see power and fuel, then that's been one of the drivers. And the other element, I would say in the U.S., again, it's mainly steady production has meant that they have been able to maintain both efficiency and the cost line within control.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Got it. And the debt numbers seem to have increased quite meaningfully sequentially. Is this just a precursor to the startup of the new capacity in India, and therefore this should normalize, or how should we read the debt trend going forward?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

The working capital increase of INR 800 crore which has happened should normalize through the year. We are seeing it happen every year that before monsoon, we tend to stock up some of the material because we are now wanting to be safe than running short of these materials. Monsoon sometimes does drag on a bit longer. The second piece is that about INR 170 crore is an impact of capitalization of warehouses which are taken on lease. That's what the accounting norm is, even though it goes through P&L, we are also end up capitalizing. That has led to about INR 170 crore impact.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Thank you. That's helpful. Just one last quick thing for me. The China demand you mentioned in your opening remarks is strong from January through May. So post-May, has it softened, or do we just not have data at this point in time?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

We think it is holding well, but the only thing we need to be watchful because if you see the news flow which has come both in terms of the vehicles getting stranded in Europe, if you look at the kind of news flow which is coming in terms of many of the countries wanting local production, I think we are watching all this, especially because China is such a big player in solar modules and also such a big player in lithium EV. And it's a big part of the demand growth as we've seen.

So anything happening in that sustainability space, it may be a temporary blip, but I think we need to, while we all believe that sustainability is a long-term trend, but at least from the end user, we are seeing some bit of softness coming through. So this is what we are watchful.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Understood. Thank you so much and all the best.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Hello. Thank you very much. So if you look at the current pricing and margin environment, what is the kind of sense you have in terms of when you can show year-on-year growth in EBITDA? And in terms of the interest expense because of the increase in your debt, what is the kind of increase in debt which you would expect for the year will be similar to what we have seen in the first quarter? And will you be able to reduce that trend, say, next year by repaying some of the debt?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

On debt, I'll have Nandu to come in. But in terms of the CapEx, even if the margin profile remains the same, let me just say this. The capacity which is getting commissioned as we speak through the year, next year should give us at least INR 400 crore bump up in the EBITDA. So I think if these conditions persist, that is what we think will happen if we look at all the sodium bicarbonate the soda ash and the pharmaceutical salt capacity getting commissioned. So keeping everything constant. But if market conditions improve, as we are saying, in some places it has started to improve.

But if the trend continues, and again, I'm saying if the trend continues, we need to be watchful in this bit of a difficult volatile environment. I think it's only going to be a plus point. We see that till December we are clear. We need to be watchful. We'll update as we move along because our visibility doesn't extend beyond that today.

Nandakumar Tirumalai
CFO, Tata Chemicals

Yeah. Also on the entire working capital debt, Ramesh, that will be unwinding by Q2 or Q3 as we start using all the stocks. So Q1 is the operation in terms of the higher working capital load. That will get unwound as we go by. So that number will come down going forward in India.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. So just to clarify the increase in EBITDA, you mentioned it's INR 400 crore if you take the of soda ash , the increase in sodium bicarbonate, and the pharmaceutical salt.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

All told. All told. If you take a full year impact of it, that will be the number.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

That including the entire 140,000 expansion in sodium bicarbonate, right?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

All that, all that.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. That's useful. So in terms of how you see the global supply getting rationalized, that being one challenge. So do you see any further reduction in the operable capacity or closures? And how do you see the Inner Mongolia capacity utilization ramp up also impacting the softness?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Ramesh, let me highlight. Inner Mongolia capacity is fully commissioned, fully on stream. They're having some quality issues with specific segments of the market. They need to address it. Hopefully, they address it. These are technical matters which companies do take a bit of time, but they'll finally address it. So if you ask me, any guess, it's anybody's guess. But it's not going to last forever. Second is, as far as capacity rationalization is concerned, that you will see when the news happens. But we've always maintained that the capacity which will come under immediate pressure should be if the Turkish natural production starts to push the European capacities. We have not seen them come off, but we all know where the numbers are the weakest. We know our own numbers. So we've had to wait and watch that stays careful.

Hello?

Operator

I believe the line for the participant has been dropped. So we'll move on to the next question. Our next follow-up question, again, is from the line of Abhijit Akella. Please go ahead, sir.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Yeah. Thank you so much for the follow-up. Just a quick one. On the U.K. expansion, could you please just help us with the capacity over there, the bicarbonate capacity and the pharma-grade salt? What's the capacity number there?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

The sodium bicarbonate is constant. It's the pharmaceutical salt which we are commissioned. What, 30,000 pharmaceutical?

Nandakumar Tirumalai
CFO, Tata Chemicals

70,000.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

70,000 is the pharmaceutical.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. So the INR 400 crore incremental EBITDA we are talking about is basically 70,000 tons of salt from the U.K. along with the India expansion we've talked about.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Yeah. It is all included. U.K. pharmaceutical india soda ash , salt and sodium bicarbonate, everything put together gives us a bit of bump up over INR 400 crore.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Yeah. And the 230,000 tons salt in India, is any part of that currently being sold, or it's pretty much a zero base right now?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

It will start to go to the market. As of first quarter, I would say that there's a very small increase quarter on quarter, year-on-year number. Sequentially, in fact, there's a bit of a reduction. As you know, during monsoon, some of these people do tend to bring stocks down, especially these sort of materials. That's what has happened. Otherwise, we do believe that sequentially every year, the salt will continue to grow at about 2%-3%. In some years, it may grow at 3%-5%.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

All right. Just one last thing. The pharma salt, what sort of margin differential does it enjoy over the normal salt that we sell?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

It has a higher margin, but I've given you a total picture.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. Appreciate that. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rohit Nagraj from Centrum Broking. Please go ahead.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. So first question, I hope I'm audible.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Yeah.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. Thanks. So the first question is that in the previous call, we had mentioned in a couple of calls that the market is oversupplied. Now we are talking about the balanced market. There have been some logistical challenges. There have been some quality issues. But is it that, and since there are no capacities which have gone off-stream or probably any closures because of maintenance, there is inventory in the system, and because of the logistics or any other challenges, it is not coming to the market. Once these are probably getting taken care of, this inventory again will come back into the system and probably will have some bit of imbalance again. So just wanted your thoughts on this. Thank you.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

See, this current situation we are in, it's slightly what I would call impact of the two factors you highlighted. And if you look at India, inventory levels actually are lower today than before. And I think this is a combination of, as somebody highlighted, there were some constraints which came on supply side and some uptick which happened on demand, and that got the system under a bit of a stretch. And there was a drawdown on inventory across. So that's the situation we are in.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Sure. This is helpful. The second question, again, slightly delving into China. So the current capacity probably from your estimates could be about 5.5 million tons, and that is completely operable. And given that the pricing environment in China still remains benign, the current pricing, does it hold the element of, again, some bit of demand-supply imbalance or the higher logistic cost? And once this factor normalizes, probably the pricing across other geographies again will start normalizing. And what is your sense in terms of the Chinese capacity? Will it stop here, or is it going to increase from the 5.5 million tons to any other incremental number? Thank you.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

So I had highlighted again, I think if you look at short-term, it will go through all these blips we're talking about. Long-term, as I've mentioned, a natural capacity will start to pressure costliest synthetic capacities. That will play out even in China. China has plants which are, I would say, competitive scale and also plants which are subscale. That playout will happen in that local market, not in one year to year, but I think it will play out over two, three years. Leaving that aside, the current situation we have faced is very unique. Whether it corrects itself in six months, 12 months, we don't know. Then there is a whole lot of geopolitics which is extremely difficult for us to sort of decipher and read. We will continue to engage with customers, with market participants to best understand.

Our understanding is it seems okay till December, but beyond December, we can't say. We've got to wait for next quarter.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Sure. This is helpful. Thanks for all the answers and all the questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Yeah. So if you look at the Indian automobile sector, there is some concern about a slowdown. Does that concern you in terms of the in soda ash in India? And secondly, if you're looking at the solar glass from India, do you see incremental production in solar glass, especially after the import duty, imposed on imports? Will it be a positive for growth in that segment, at least over the next two years?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

See, really, to say the demand, as you had mentioned, that every 10 GW meets 1 million tons. So I think the demand for solar glass will continue to grow, especially if government is on track in terms of ensuring solar power plays a key role. And solar power today is probably the one which is going to play, let's say, an elemental role in shift to renewable in many ways. The second piece around the domestic availability and domestic growth, I think we are in a very balanced phase, and that situation is likely to continue. If you look at imports as a share, I think imports are down, if I'm right, from 31%-23% now, about an 8% drop, and that has been picked up by domestic players broadly.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Okay. So just one last thought on the U.S. growth in both domestic and export market. So is that trajectory likely to be sustained in the next nine months, and do you see an improvement in, say, FY 2026 given the underlying demand in the industry segment there?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Let me state it differently. Except in U.K., we do believe that we should either be better in volume terms or at least at the same level as last year in all the geographies. In fact, India and U.S. will show if we run our operations well, that is within our own limit and what we need to do. Market is not the constraint for us to deliver higher volumes.

Saurabh Jain
SVP and Head of Regulatory Reporting, HSBC

Thank you very much, and wish you all the best.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Saket Kapoor from Kapoor & Co. Please go ahead.

Saket Kapoor
Analyst, Kapoor & Co

Yeah. Namaskar sir, and thank you for the opportunity. So you alluded to the fact that the Q1 performance for U.K. is what things are going to be for the current year. So we had PBT losses of INR 60 crore for the first quarter. So this will be the trend for going ahead also, or what factors should undermine these losses?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

See, within the number in the U.K., there is a one-off which is we had a one-off payment of INR 10 crores-INR 13 odd crores, which was a fine which we had paid, and we had actually declared that to SEBI. So if you remove that, the INR 60 crores should read more close to INR 45 crores. I think that run rate will continue. It may be less. See, the issue in the U.K. is that, let us say, the renewable power generation there reduces, we would probably be closer to a INR 30crore, INR 30 odd figure if the renewable power does not reduce. Sorry, they have a high level of wind energy and generation. It will be close to about INR 45 crores. That's the kind of range that will fluctuate between in negative terms.

Saket Kapoor
Analyst, Kapoor & Co

What factors would change, what steps will we be taking to reduce these losses? Because this will be a big dent on the number if we take the analyzed number of INR 200+, INR 250 crores rather. That's a big amount.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

No, it's not INR 200. So let me correct. I think it is, as I said, between INR 30 crores and INR 40 odd crores. So to say that for the year, it is likely to be the number closer to INR 200 odd crores if everything continues as is. The team is working on a plan, and let them execute the plan, and it's premature for us to sort of highlight. Obviously, we want the losses to reduce to zero, and that's the plan they are working to. And right now, it is still in, let's say, finalization phase, and they will come back with specifics. It includes a bit of cost rationalization and portfolio readjustment, which will partly come into play in the second half with the pharmaceutical plant getting pharmaceutical salt units getting commissioned with a higher grade of bicarbonate getting sold. So all these are part of that process.

Saket Kapoor
Analyst, Kapoor & Co

Okay. So then that will lower the losses to some extent.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Yeah. That will lower. And obviously, we want to end up in a situation by the time the year ends, we are at least talking about a much, much steadier number than what we are speaking today.

Saket Kapoor
Analyst, Kapoor & Co

Okay. Sir, when we look at this capacity augmentation for the sodium bicarb, 70,000 and then further 70,000 and now totaling to 290,000 for us, sir, what are the main demand drivers? And as I think, sir, you mentioned that it is not domestic demand that will be kept into. So just correct me there. How are we going to run at high implementation levels? So where are the demand drivers from sodium bicarbonate?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

So on sodium bicarbonate, there's food, the feed, and pharma. And the feed market is growing well. For example, for cattle population, additional sodium bicarb increases the milk production. It also has a positive impact on the environment. So I think for cattle, it's clearly the additive which we are promoting. In terms of food, certainly, it has a positive impact on several of the basically, it softens the food in a way that other elements cannot do in a benign manner. And pharmaceutical, again, there is an application which. And in addition to that, there is a flue gas treatment market, which all the coal-fired plants, especially of PSUs like NTPC, they are now beginning to use that mainly for desulfurization.

That, again, is one of the key drivers because the environment now for India will continue to use coal for some bit of time, and we will have coal plants for at least the next 10, 15, 20 years. All these plants with tightening norms will need to use the various processes to desulfurize. These are driving the demand, and clearly, we see them to continue to move up. Our business plan does say it will get absorbed.

Saket Kapoor
Analyst, Kapoor & Co

Right. And last point about the employee cost, sir, now with realizations lower and the dynamic changing, the impact of higher or rather employee cost is also significant. So what's the thought process behind, or this is the quarterly number that we are going to the run rate will continue to 480 level?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

In terms of employee numbers, as you would see, in some quarters, it does bump up because that's a quarter in which we pay the variable pay and other elements. But if you take it normally through the year, I think it should be more or less stable. We are extremely focused on employee productivity, using all the tools to grow. As I said, as new capacities come on stream, there is really one of the benefits is the operating leverage we have in all of our units because these are all coming in brownfield sites. They are not any new sites getting opened. That benefit is closer.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mithil Bhuva from Unlisted India. Please go ahead.

Mithil Bhuva
Research Analyst, Unlisted India

Thank you for the opportunity. I had a couple of questions. The first one being, we have seen sodium-ion batteries emerging as an alternative to lithium-ion. So as sodium-ion requires soda ash. So what does the management see the impact on the for soda ash because of this?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

You want to ask your next question also?

Mithil Bhuva
Research Analyst, Unlisted India

Yeah. The next question is on the battery recycling, the waste, and the e-waste recycling. As this is a big opportunity going ahead, so does the management see that as a big opportunity in solving the issue?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

So we have nothing specific to state except that our teams are looking. And if anything substantial does happen because we had done the battery recycling of the mobile and the laptop batteries, and that was mainly dependent on the cobalt pricing. But there's a need for technology as far as the vehicle recycling is concerned to have the right approach for LFP, where we have to make them into useful product. And as you know, cobalt is highly valued, whereas LFP ingredients are not that valued. And I think that work is underway, and there's nothing more beyond saying that work is underway. Sodium-ion battery, even our team is working. And I think for stationary application, we do see that as a great alternative today.

But for mobile applications, I think mobility applications for cars, China seems to have got a very good energy density. We are able to get about 120, 130, but China seems to hit a figure of 160, 170. Obviously, at that number, it becomes a viable alternate. But we'll have to see how that evolves. But clearly, it is an opportunity soda ash business, and we will continue to keep a close watch on it. And also, if we can get our own solutions, we will talk about it. But as of now, it's all in the lab in Kenya.

Mithil Bhuva
Research Analyst, Unlisted India

The e-waste recycling, like the electronics?

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Yeah. On e-waste, as I mentioned, a large chunk of it, again, will come from mobility applications. And there, India is likely to remain an LFP market. And because India is likely an LFP market, we need technology slightly different, which uses NMC. NMC profitability depends on cobalt. In LFP, it is not there. So our teams are working on it. There's no concrete plan for me to sort of mention anything to our stakeholders today.

Mithil Bhuva
Research Analyst, Unlisted India

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take one last question from the line of Santosh Kumar Kesari from Kesari Finance.

Santosh Kumar Kesari
Analyst, Kesari Finance

Hello, sir. Am I audible?

Okay.

So I just have a very quick question. Last year, we've been showing a good amount of profit. What happened in this year that the profit is not going?

Operator

Actually, we are not able to hear you clearly. There is a lot of background noise from your background.

Santosh Kumar Kesari
Analyst, Kesari Finance

Okay. Is it better now?

Operator

Yeah.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Slightly better. Yes, go ahead.

Santosh Kumar Kesari
Analyst, Kesari Finance

Yeah. My question is that last year, we were showing a good amount of profit, and our profit was really good. Now, this year, what happened that we are not seeing the profit? I know you have answered this.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Can't hear you clearly.

Santosh Kumar Kesari
Analyst, Kesari Finance

Okay. So, hi, sir. I'll send it in writing to you. I'm so sorry.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

Ramakrishnan Mukundan
Managing Director and CEO, Tata Chemicals

Thank you. As I mentioned, our visibility in terms of markets says that we are in a zone of, let's say, narrow band of movement, and our teams are well positioned to ensure that we deliver on servicing our customers well. We focus on competitive operations and delivering on CapEx for growth of volume. At the same time, as Nandakumar already highlighted, every surplus we have, we will deploy towards debt repayment. These remain our priorities. Certainly, as we get greater clarity on the market going forward, we will highlight them to you. This visibility, as I said, is up to December. We remain very vigilant because these are times one needs to be extremely vigilant with the kind of market conditions we have. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of Tata Chemicals Limited.

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