Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the CEAT Limited Q1 FY 2027 earnings conference call, hosted by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Yash Agarwal from Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Suknalu. Good evening. On behalf of Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, I welcome you all to 1Q FY 2027 earnings conference call of CEAT Tyres. The management is represented by Mr. Arnab Banerjee, Managing Director and CEO, and Mr. Kumar Subbiah, Chief Financial Officer. I will now hand over to the management for their opening remarks, after which, we will open the floor for Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Good evening, everybody, thanks for coming to this call. I'll take you through the business updates for the quarter. Then, I shall hand it over to Kumar for his remarks on financial performance. Post that, we'll have the Q&A. The structural consumption tailwinds triggered by last year's GST reforms continued to boost domestic volumes. However, Q1 also saw a sharp escalation in input costs, driven by natural rubber prices, both international and local, and also prices of crude link derivatives. Raw material cost increase was about 15%-16% vis-à-vis the average of last quarter. Demand outlook, near-term expectation primarily hinges on monsoon bridging its rainfall deficit. El Niño poses a risk to rural demand on account of reduced farm incomes, and also, supply chain disruptions following the West Asia crisis.
Some moderation in demand may happen in Q2, b ut we don't expect demand to fall off a cliff. In the near term, we expect replacement demand for MHCV to be mid-single digit. In two-wheeler, growth is expected to be in high single digits, where consumption levels have surpassed already pre-COVID levels. Passenger tire demand is expected to be mid-single digit. Overall, rural demand has been very, very strong right through quarter one. In the OEM segment, demand has been very robust in some categories even in the mid-20s. We expect demand for MHCV to grow in mid or high single digit, while OEM two-wheeler and passenger car tire demand is expected to grow in double digits. In international business, we have a strong order base despite disruption in Middle East sales.
CEAT quarter one results, the growth aspect. Q1 continued CEAT's growth journey with strong revenue growth of 18.3% YoY on standalone basis, while standalone EBITDA stood at INR 380 crore. This is on the back of strong growth in Q3 of last year and Q4 of last year as well. Overall performance, as I mentioned, 18.3% value growth in quarter one. Replacement grew in mid-teens, and demand has been strong over the last three quarters post GST. OEM grew in low teens, and international business has been growing very strongly, almost in the 30s. Volume performance, replacement, overall volume growth was robust. Two-wheeler continues to do well, backed by strong rural growth. Truck bus radials also have done growth in double digit, and farm has grown in high teens as well. Replacement passenger car tire segments grew in healthy double digit during Q1.
In OEM, we recorded the highest volume in passenger car tires. Of course, our base was smaller, and most of the growth has come from 17-in+ segments, which is the premium segment in OEM. In two-wheelers, we registered a mid-single-digit growth in this quarter. Farm growth in OEM has been pretty robust, strong single digit, and truck bus growth in OEM was flattish. International business growth across segment was strong, particularly strong on passenger car tire, two-, three-wheeler, as well as the agriculture segment. In truck bus segment, we had a single-digit growth in international markets. Margin scenario, Q1 standalone gross margin witnessed a contraction of 575 basis points QoQ. Our standalone EBITDA margin for Q1 stood at 9.1%. Raw material costs continue to be high entering into quarter two, and w e have been taking price increase right through April, May, and June.
About 7%-8% in replacement, about 3%-4% in OEM, and about 4%-5% in IB has already been taken. We have had a strong price increase on 1st June, and right through June, on 1st July, and in July and August, we'll continue this journey. Standalone profit was INR 98 crore, and in consolidated accounts, it was INR 4 crore. This disparity or gap between the two is high in Q1, primarily because of a nearly INR 48 crore impact from depreciation in Sri Lankan rupees, LKR, on the $80 million denominated debt at the overseas entity, CEAT Sri Lanka OHT. Also, higher costs in our Camso business arising from initial investments in new warehouses, new offices, startup costs, new hirings there without commensurate growth in revenue because it just happened in quarter one. Our top line in Camso is trending at $10 million at customer prices.
This is not what we are realizing because we are selling to Michelin, as explained in earlier calls. Part of the realization goes to cover the cost and marginal profit in the hands of Michelin. We are about to change the capital structure of CEAT OHT Lanka to reduce the interest burden as well as to reduce the risk of currency fluctuations. Overall transition is happening as per plan. About 60% of the customers have transited to CEAT by end of Q1, and w e expect to complete the customer transition by end of Q2. The transition from buying semi-finished goods from Michelin to buying our own raw material will take some more time. It will be completed by end of quarter four of FY 2026. Hence, FY 2028 is the first full year when we'll have control of the entire value chain.
However, in second half of this financial year, we'll have control of all our customers and therefore, we'll start growing our volumes across replacement and OEM segments when we handle our customers directly. Overall, on the four trends which we keep talking about, electrification, international business, premiumization, and digital AI, I'd like to cover a few points. On electrification, our trend in owning share in OEMs continued consistently. We have about 25% share each in OEM passenger EVs and in two-wheeler EVs. We continue to get nominated to significant new OEM launches in both two-wheeler and four-wheeler. Our international turnover, including Camso, was around 23%, on standalone basis was about 20%. Despite geopolitical issues and freight rates and delivery timeline disruptions, OHT business delivered a strong quarter, growing sequentially as well as on YoY basis.
We added about 10+ new SKUs, and we got several new nominations in marquee OEMs in the OHT segment. In the online segment, growth was robust as well, as I mentioned earlier, in all segments, including four-wheeler as well as the truck bus radial segments. Middle East performance was of course subdued, but other geographies came back strongly, and our order base is pretty robust. Premiumization, we got some good nominations in premium vehicles and our volume and share continued to grow in the premium segment in OEM, as well as in replacement marquee. Our Brand Finance rankings, we found ourselves in the top 10 in the Brand Finance ranking, which is a good indicator. Overall sales volume of premium tires, which is 17-in+ rim size tire, grew by 100% in replacement. Two-wheeler premium portfolio comprising of radials and tires fitted onto 250cc plus bikes also grew handsomely.
On digital and AI, at CEAT, we are scaling AI across the enterprise and embedding it into our business processes. In Q1, we continued to expand our agentic AI initiative to drive productivity, accelerate automation across the value chain. In parallel, we are making steady progress on our enterprise data lake program, creating a unified data foundation for AI and advanced analytics, while our SAP RISE transformation remains on track. Our premium sales through lead generation grew 2x in quarter one, while overall four-wheeler sale through lead generation grew 32% over the same period last year. Implementation of agentic website increased traffic from home to product by 14%. Positive sentiments for brand moved up 46%, with 16% increase in average interactions per post YoY.
U.S. tariffs, a short mention. The applicable duty on auto components remains at 25% in addition to the original 4%, so total 29%, on on-road tires, including TBR and PCR, this 29% applies. Off-highway tires are subject to a lower 10% global tariff, and on Sri Lanka exports, also the same 10% applies. In tracks, which is coming out of Sri Lanka, the same 10% applies. However, for the metal component of tracks, which is primarily steel, it continues to attract a 25% tariff. On the sustainability front, we achieved EcoVadis Gold Rating, which places us in the top five percentile of the companies globally for sustainability performance. CEAT Received Best Practices in Corporate Governance and Compliance Award 2026 from VaultCircle and ISO 27001 certification for its head office, Halol, Chennai, and Ambernath facilities, reinforcing our commitment to best-in-class governance.
Our focus on people and transparency has resulted in employee happiness score to move up to 87% from 85% previous year. As we move forward in Q2, we expect margin pressure to continue, and w e expect demand to moderate a little bit, but as I mentioned, it's not going to fall off its cliff. With this, I would like to hand over to Kumar for his remarks.
Thank you, Arnab. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining our Q1 FY 2027 earnings call. I will share some further financial data points with you all, post which we can enter the Q&A session. First, on overall financial performance. Our consolidated revenue for the quarter stood at INR 4,318 crore, with a year-on-year growth of about 22.3%. As we did not have the numbers of our Camso business, or as we did not have the Camso business in the corresponding period of last year, I would like to keep sharing our standalone numbers alongside consolidated numbers so that the numbers are more comparable. Our standalone revenue stood at INR 4,163 crore with year-on-year growth of 18.2% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.2%. On year-on-year basis, 2/3 of the standalone revenue growth came from volumes and balance 1/3 of the growth came from price and mix.
Pricing impact was positive across all segments during quarter one, with replacement and international business segments leading with price increase. So far, replacement has been receptive to our pricing actions where demand has been robust. We have affected approximately 7% increase in our prices in replacement and about 5% in international business and OEMs approximately 3%. Considering our pricing model of quarterly pricing with large percentage of our OEMs, the price increase on OEM segment is expected to be there in quarter two. Coming to operating margins, our consolidated EBITDA for quarter one stood at INR 370 crore, translating to 8.6% EBITDA margin. It's a contraction of about 562 basis points sequentially and 238 basis points year-on-year. Our standalone EBITDA for quarter one stood at INR 380 crore versus INR 391 crore in quarter one of last year and INR 587 crore in quarter four.
The EBITDA of INR 380 crore of standalone translates to 9.1% of margins. Our consolidated gross margin stood at 33.9%, a contraction of about 575 basis points sequentially in the face of unfavorable raw material costs and rupee depreciation during the quarter. Coming to raw materials, during quarter one, crude oil prices remained at high levels. Average price of crude surged past $100/bbl in the beginning of the quarter in April and May. Although the June average was a little lower, supply chain disruptions remained heightened throughout the quarter. Coming to natural rubber, the international benchmark SICOM started in quarter one at around $1,950/ ton and has since moved higher month-on-month. Prices averaged approximately about $2,050 in April, $2,200 in May, and around $2,240 in June.
They are currently hovering around $2,180/ton-$2,200/ ton, which remains elevated and represent a significant increase from the levels that we saw in quarter four and whole of previous year. In line with this movement and prevailing parity dynamics, domestic rubber prices have also remained elevated and currently hovering around INR 280/ kg, which is more than a 15-year high, more than the last 15 years and beyond. Domestic prices are currently at a premium to international prices in the range of INR 15/ kg-INR 20/ kg. The rupee continued to weaken in the quarter one from about INR 93-INR 94 level to around INR 96.5 to $1 level. The depreciation also added to our cost pressure in quarter one and would continue to have an impact in quarter two.
Overall, as shared with you all, raw material costs surged in high teens, in the range of about 16%-18% in quarter one compared to quarter four. Moving into quarter two, despite some recent correction in the crude oil prices, the cost pressure is likely to continue as we do not have the benefit of lower cost raw material inventory in the beginning of the quarter as we had in quarter one. Further spike in the prices of natural rubber and currency depreciation is expected to have an impact of about 8%-10% in quarter two versus quarter one. The commodity market continues to be volatile, which is also impacting the currency and ocean freight rates.
We expect the commodity prices to stabilize once the West Asia war comes to an end, which may lead to some stability in the commodity prices, hopefully the second half of the year. While we have taken pricing increases across all segments in quarter one and some more in July, there is a lag between the cost increase and our product price increase, which will have an impact on our margins as we go into quarter two. Coming to capital expenditure, working capital and debt. We spent about INR 293 crore of CapEx in the standalone entity during the quarter. We prioritized capacity-related CapEx over normal routine CapEx during the quarter one. Our capacity utilization has remained high on most of the categories across all our plants in quarter one, and we would continue to invest in adding capacities and scale them up faster to support the demand growth.
As shared earlier, we intend to incur CapEx in the range of INR 1,300 crore-INR 1,400 crore during FY 2027, and w e would like to stick to the above plans as of now. On a consolidated level, our working capital moved up by about INR 138 crore as compared to quarter four, and standalone working capital increased by about INR 105 crore. The primary reason for the increase was on account of higher raw material inventory, both in volume and value. We operated with higher physical inventory during the quarter to manage the supply-related challenges, and also to ensure that supply security is for our factories. We look forward to normalizing this in quarter two. Further, there has been some accumulation our GST balances arising out of some mismatch between GST on inputs versus output, which we hope to unlock it in the next two quarters.
Our consolidated debt stood at INR 3,243 crore, an increase of about INR 232 crore over quarter four. Our debt-EBITDA on a consolidated basis stood at a comfortable level of about 1.6x and marginally higher over quarter four level of about 1.46x and our debt-equity ratio remained healthy at 0.65x. Coming to operational expenses, our standalone employee cost in quarter one was similar to quarter four at around INR 248 crore level. In order to mitigate the impact of increase in raw material cost, we exercised strong control over all discretionary costs through various steps, including cutting down our discretionary expenses like travel, conferences, consulting, and factory-related et cetera, which helped in keeping our consolidated other expenses at 18.6% level similar to previous quarter, despite higher marketing cost due to IPL and infrastructure cost that Arnab was talking about in the overseas operations.
Overall, we kept tight control on cost between the gross margin and EBITDA lines during quarter four, despite an overall inflationary scenario beyond just direct input costs. Coming to depreciation and interest cost, depreciation of a consolidated level for the quarter remained at similar levels as that of the previous quarter. However, consolidated finance cost during the quarter increased by about INR 61 crore. Arnab already explained the one part of it, which is about INR 48 crore, was attributable to the depreciation of Sri Lankan currency versus dollars and on $80 million loan that they received from parent entities at CEAT India. The impact of that was reflected as finance cost during quarter one.
The board, in order to ensure that the Sri Lankan entity is adequately capitalized, approved as to convert part of the debt into equity to the extent of about $24.5 million, and to ensure that adequate capitalization of that entity at 1:1 debt-equity level. Overall, the consolidated profit after the quarter stood at INR 4 crore, compared to about INR 112 crore during the same quarter of last year and INR 244 crore the previous quarter. Our standalone profit after tax is more relatable and one could draw inference from that better compared to consolidated number. Our standalone profit stood at about INR 98 crore for the quarter versus about INR 283 crore in quarter four and INR 135 crore in the same period last year.
Our quarter one profit after tax was after adjusting about INR 7 crore of exceptional cost towards extension of our current running voluntary retirement option scheme in one of the factories. We would like to inform you that our Board of Directors, in the meeting that we had yesterday, approved a CapEx of about INR 1,205 crore for setting up additional 53,000 two-wheeler tires capacity. This is over and above the additional capacity which is already under implementation at Nagpur. The company is evaluating various locational options for this additional capacity. We expect this capacity addition to be progressively implemented over and by FY 2031 in stages. The CapEx would be funded with a mix of debt and internal accruals as we have been doing in the past. While executing the proposal, we'll continue to monitor our leverage levels and ensure that the balance sheet remains strong going into the future.
During the quarter, India Rating carried out an annual survey and reaffirmed credit rating of AA with a positive outlook for long-term and A1+ for short-term. Thank you once again. With that, we can now open the floor for Q&A.
Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and then two. Participants, you are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue is serviced. A reminder to all, you may press star and one to ask a question. We have the first question from the line of Kapil Singh from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Hello, am I audible?
Yes, you are audible.
Yeah.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Firstly, just wanted to know what is the greater than 17 in and EV revenue share for CEAT? Is the market share here better than overall industry?
You mean in replacement or OE? In OE, we have an increasing share in excess of 20%, and we intend to take it up a little bit higher. It won't go too much higher because of the OE policies. In replacement, it is more or less indexed to our overall market shares.
Okay.
The market saliency is about 13%, and it will grow to 30%, 40% in the next five years.
Okay, thanks. Secondly, on the price hike, just wanted to understand, given the current commodity index, do we need to take further price hikes, or the price hikes we have taken so far are sufficient to fully pass on the cost?
No, we have to take further price hikes. We have taken price hikes on 1st July also, and we have got an index price hike from OEMs. We need to take further price hikes in replacement and international, which we are doing through the month of July, and this will continue into August as well.
Okay. Just lastly on Camso, what is the FY 2028 revenue potential when operations come under our full control?
Our current run rate at customer prices is about $10 million, which is about INR 120- odd million. We would expect to grow it from there in FY 2028.
Okay. Thank you. Thanks a lot, sir. Best wishes.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Raghun andhan NL from Nuvama Research. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity. Firstly, on the requirement of price hike, would my understanding be correct that the total commodity or raw material basket increase will be about 26%, Q1 and Q2 put together, so the price hike requirement would be around 15%-16%? So far, you have taken about 7%-8% price hike in replacement. Just wanted to understand from you, how do you see, both for CEAT and industry, how is the market and competitors responding to price hike? How much more price hikes do you expect in Q2? And your thoughts, both on market acceptance and on the demand.
Yeah. As we speak, that 7%-8% has moved up to 11% already. You are right in your estimate of about 16%. We will endeavor to take another 4%-6% through the month of July and August in replacement. Coming to industry, I really can't predict or say anything on behalf of industry. But so far, competition has been taking up price hikes in different measures, in different categories, a little bit here and there on dates, but the price table is moving up.
Thank you, sir. Good to hear that. Secondly, on Camso, you indicated that H2 revenue should be better as the customer's transition will be completed by Q2. So, H2, the growth prospects will be better. So, you know, like, two, three years ago, Camso had a much higher revenue. How do you see the trajectory of the revenue levels going back to the previous peak, and how do you see H2 growth and FY 2028, 2029 trajectory in terms of going back closer to the earlier levels of revenue?
Yeah, that's a benchmark that is there. That was couple of years back, as you rightly pointed out. The H2 growth will come initially because if we start handling the customers directly, whatever the customer pays comes to us. So, when we sell to Michelin instead, we get a much lower realization because the balance goes to cover Michelin's distribution cost, holding cost, as well as a little bit of margin is left with them transparently as per the transition agreement. That growth in value sale will come at constant volume terms, so to say, in half two. Further, when we handle it, we have some visibility of replacement growth coming back on track, not to the highest levels of which we witnessed two years back, but definitely on a positive move.
The OEM growth will take time to recover because we need to get into the OEM programs with NPD, et cetera. That's the situation right now. On both these counts, we expect H2 to be better. I believe Amit is on call, right? Amit, would you like to add anything more?
I know. Everything is like. At this moment, due to the cost reduction project, et cetera, et cetera, e verything [audio distortion] . Not the whole company, but they're very well-situated company, and you are between them. So, even though you are [audio distortion], in this case, of course, you must invest and they can be the man of [audio distortion]. These are the things that we [crosstalk].
Sorry to interrupt in between Amit, sir.
I need to close assuming someone.
What is that?
I need to close the deal with someone, with you or somebody else. As I told you, my technical guy is packing at work. [audio distortion]
Sir, Amit, sir is not connecting.
I think that was to somebody else. Maybe, you will have to disconnect, someone who was talking. Okay. And Amit will come back during the course of the call in case he wants to clarify. We can move to the next question.
Sure, sir.
Kumar sir, if you can indicate for this Q1, Camso, how was the margin? Because when I do consol minus standalone, the EBITDA is negative. Was there one-off which was mentioned during the opening remarks like startup cost, new hiring? Just wanted to clarify whether all these one-offs have led to a negative margin in Q1, and if the one-offs are over, whether Q2 will revert back to 8%, 9% kind of margin.
Okay. No, Raghu, t he margins were negative in quarter one. I think Arnab updated in terms of customers are coming to our fold progressively. Okay. As of end June, half of the customers have migrated, and by September end, we expect it to be around 90%. Okay. For us to start servicing our customers in different geographies, we had to set up our warehouses, have people in overseas locations like Germany, U.K., France, Poland. We had those infrastructure warehousing- related costs. Those costs would be absorbed once we start servicing all our customers from September. Gross margin still looks healthy. In fact, there is a gross margin differential between CEAT business and Camso business.
Raghu, what we would request is that give us one or two more quarters for us to provide more clarity, because only half of the customers, and that too in the month of June has come, so w e have to advance our expenses. Setting up systems for us to meet the requirements locally, it could be a supply chain system , it could be VAT- related system. Those costs are already accounted and absorbed. Gross margin looks okay. Operating margin's negative. However, I think in a quarter or two, things should become normal as there will be a matching revenue.
Noted, sir. Thank you so much. I'll fall back to the queue.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Vijay Pandey from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my questions. Sir, firstly on the natural rubber prices. Even though the crude prices has come down slightly, natural rubber prices are still, especially on the domestic side, is still remaining high. Just want to understand what is driving that dynamic. Also, I heard that Kerala government is putting a minimum floor price of INR 250 from INR 200. Do you expect natural rubber prices to come down below INR 250 or INR 250 is going to be the base case scenario going forward?
Largely, Indian prices with a lag, is linked to international prices. In a high demand, low inventory situations, local rubber prices would be at a premium, and in a reverse situation, local could be either at parity or a little bit of a discount. That's what it happens. Today, domestic prices of INR 280 is at a premium to the international prices to the extent of about INR 20/ kg. Local prices are largely driven by the international. Because of supply chain- related disruptions, the transit times increased during the intervening period, therefore, overall inventory level in the pipeline came down, particularly in physical inventory part of it. Therefore, that would have necessitated the local consumers of natural rubber to approach local market to buy more, and that has caused little bit of a premium.
What we expect the local prices to happen, we expect the local prices to move in tandem with the international prices going forward. The premium could come down once the situation becomes normal. Ideally, based on the movement of other commodities, it could be even aluminum or copper, even precious metals, steel, m any of them reacted to correction in crude oil prices in terms of moving in the same direction, though the proportion was little lower. But natural rubber has not happened yet. Though Shanghai market corrected about 4% or 5% on one or two days, otherwise, the international price is still at an elevated level. There's no commodity in the world which will operate independently and not move in line with the crude.
Therefore, with a lag, as far as the current quarter is concerned, quarter two is concerned, natural rubber prices are kind of fixed for us at least. Because of the pipeline, physical inventory, imports. We hope the prices would correct, move down to the levels that you indicated as a first step. Maybe it'll happen during the course of the later part of the quarter or in the subsequent quarters when things normalize.
Okay. I also wanted to check in terms of the floor price. Is it okay to assume that by Q3 or Q4 it may come down to INR 250, or do you expect, b ecause government has put a floor price on INR 250?
No, I don't know. It's difficult to comment if the local floor prices remain, if it is high. Consumers, where they have already seen a high inflation, okay, whether they will be able to afford to buy at that level, only time will tell. As of now, short term, because it's volatile, we should accept that quarter two natural rubber prices is kind of fixed for us. We look forward to SICOM prices coming down once the normalcy returns, and then the local prices will adjust for itself.
Sir, what will be our mix in terms of domestic and international procurement?
Varies from category to category. Approximately 2/3 of the natural rubber currently is block international, and 1/3 of it is local sheet rubber. ± 5%, t hat is the range in which normally our consumption is.
Okay. Sir, about the price hike, can you just give the quantum of price hike you have taken in June and one in July?
Okay. I think Mr. Banerjee mentioned to you, up to June end, progressively, beginning of the quarter to the end of the quarter in the replacement market, about 6.667% kind of a price increase has happened, okay? He also mentioned it in response to your earlier other question that has kind of become about 11% after taking into consideration price hike happened at the beginning of the quarter. Something more has been announced for the second half of the month and something more will happen. As of now, about 11% in the replacement. International business, about 5%-7% has happened on fresh supplies. And OEM, in double digits. I think the number is not closed. It should be in a double-digit number effective 1st July, in addition to some 3% that happened in April.
Sure, sir. I will fall back in the queue. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Ankur Poddar from Svan Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi sir. Firstly, can you please tell me the overall volume growth for the quarter?
For CEAT standalone, it is about 13%-14%.
Year-on-year?
Year-on-year.
All right. My second question is regarding our finance cost, which has gone up, which was explained that because Sri Lankan currency had depreciated, so we got an impact of around INR 48 crore for the quarter. Going forward, what can we expect the quarterly run rate to be for our interest expense? And do we see this loan amount getting lower?
Okay. This INR 48 crore impact is basically on the loan given by parent entity CEAT India to our own 100% subsidiary entity called the Lanka OHT, which takes care of the Camso business. If we remove that INR 48 crore, that would have been the normal finance cost that we would have incurred. We expect a debt level to marginally increase in the subsequent quarters at a consolidated level. Okay? Therefore, within a 5% level, without that INR 48 crore of impact, would be the range in the next one to two quarters, because the interest rates are stable. Okay? We would like to keep the debt level within range. That's a kind of a number, in the next one to two quarters that you can expect.
Okay. Is the understanding correct that the interest cost would be in the range of INR 100 crore-INR 110 crore going forward quarterly?
Yeah. It is not only interest cost, it also has all the banking-related expenses into it. The number that you have for quarter one, excluding INR 48 crore, + 5% kind of a range is what is likely to happen in next one to two quarters.
Okay, understood. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Basudeb Banerjee from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Yeah, madam. Thanks. Sir, like almost 15%, 16% price hike in a span of four months seems like a, hardly ever we have seen that in many, many years. On the other side, post rainy season and the premium of domestic rubber prices or crude falling down.
Sorry to interrupt in between, Basudeb, I would request you to please use your handset mode and speak.
Yeah. Am I audible?
Yes, you're audible now.
I'm saying on the back of almost 15%-16% cumulative price hike as sir was saying, post September quarter, in case the commodity basket stabilizes or turns favorable, w ill there be scope of price cuts or one should be looking for much elevated profitability because the price hikes have been super normal? Hardly we see such 15%-16% price hike in a span of four months.
The price hikes is lagging the raw material price increases. The price hikes have to happen first to cover the margin. Our normal gross margins are 40%, 41% in normal times. First quarter saw us going down to 33%, so there is a big gap to be covered. If the raw material prices fall off in second half sometime, we would intend to hold on to the price till we recover to our normal level of operation if we can, given the competitive situation. That's how it is. The past experience of such situations indicate that the industry holds the price when the raw material tapers off. What will happen is difficult to predict, but that's what we intend to do.
Sure, sir. That's what I was trying to understand because quantum of cumulative price hike is too much on the higher side because market requires that kind of hike, which we generally don't see. If market is able to hold on to these hikes when commodity starts reversing, then that can be a very positive development for the overall industry.
Yes.
Yeah. Second thing, sir, like even one, two quarters back in the result call commentary, more or less when you were saying INR 1,000, INR 1,200 crore of Camso revenue and 12%, 13% margin. From that scenario, what has changed in three to six months and where do we see now compared to those numbers?
Well, the top-line indication, as I mentioned, we are moving at about INR 10 million- odd per month at customer prices. The top-line indication continues to be in that direction. That's the current status. We are not handling the sales to our customer, it's a transition period. Nothing will change either too much on the positive or negative side. It'll hold like this till we have control of the customers, which will be from quarter three of this financial year. Second half of this financial year, we'll know what to do with the business that we have inherited, obviously on a positive side.
On the bottom line front, right now, we are EBITDA negative because the volumes are low, scale is low, and there are some, as Kumar explained, we are setting up new offices, new warehouses, hiring new people without commensurate revenue because revenue is being handled by somebody else. We will start ramping up revenue with these resources when we start having control over the customer, which is again, second half of this financial year. We are positive about going back to that margin level, but it'll take some time when we start handling the value chain ourselves. So, no change in outlook as far as Camso business is concerned. It's a matter of time is what we believe.
Last question for Kumar, sir. Sir, as you were saying around INR 1,200, INR 1,250- odd crore CapEx, consol CapEx for the year, and in the press release that incremental capacity addition till FY 2031 for which you are going to create a new project CapEx, w ould that add on to the existing CapEx number or including that INR 1,200, INR 1,300 per annum would be okay?
I indicated INR 1,300 crore-INR 1,400 crore CapEx.
Yeah.
Was our outlook when we had a call quarter back, and we are holding on to the same as we speak. Okay. The amount of CapEx outflow on account of this new capacity for the current year is not likely to be significant, but this INR 1,300 crore-INR 1,400 crore outlook for the current year includes all, including this one.
Okay, thanks. That's all.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Joseph George from IIFL Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. I had a couple of questions. One is you mentioned that you've increased prices about 11% and replacement in a plant two to another 3%-4%. What is the situation with respect to competitors, especially MRF? Is there a risk that because of aggressive price hikes by some of the players, is there a risk to market share? And if you see any negative impact of market share, is there a risk of you rolling back some of the price hikes that you've taken?
Price hikes are being taken with a lag to raw material price hike, and it is so far inadequate, as you can see from our margins in quarter one. So, price hikes need to be taken by us. As far as industry is concerned, so far, most of the competitors have taken price hikes in different categories at different points of time, and the price table is moving up in quarter one, is what I reported. If this continues, then we shall be able to take this balance price hike also. If it doesn't continue, we'll evaluate, but there is no question of any rollback of price at this moment.
Got it, sir. The second question that I had was on the one-time MTM impact that you have taken in the Sri Lankan operations for the loan. I think the amount was some INR 46 crore, INR 48 crore. You mentioned that this is on a loan given by the parent to the subsidiary. If it is within the system, if the subsidiary books a loss, shouldn't the parent book a gain and the two offset each other at the consolidated level? It's a little confusing, if you can just clarify that.
No, it happens. Assuming if the currency was rupee, what you said was right. Okay. Assuming if both the currencies had moved in the same proportion, okay, yes, cost in one place would be income in another place. At consolidated level, it will get eliminated. But what happened in quarter one was, the rupee, I'm saying 31st March, rupee f orex rate, because generally these are booked on the last day of the quarter based on how currency has moved. Okay, so it represents the position as on that particular day, which was 30th of June . During the quarter, rupee versus dollar depreciation was small, 30th June versus 31st of March . Okay. Therefore, on the loan given to the subsidiary company, there is no income, there is no appreciation- related benefit. Appreciation means dollar appreciating against rupee.
Whereas, in Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankan rupee went down, that is from LKR 312, LKR 315 to $ 1, to around LKR 335 to $ 1. That impact came as a currency impact for the quarter in that entity without a corresponding income in our books, in the standalone parent company.
Okay, got it. Thank you.
Okay. This is $80 million. Yesterday, we got board's approval because that entity needs to be adequately capitalized in the form of equity. Therefore, we have also got an approval from the board of parent company, CEAT India, yesterday, to convert part of the debt into equity, which was anyhow part of our original plan when we infused capital into that entity. Part of that, about 30% of the total debt will now get converted into equity, and to that extent will come, one. In the normal course, it wouldn't have come as a loss. For example, we have a much larger proportion exposure of currency in our CEAT India books. You would not see that kind of an impact, because these are all hedged.
In Sri Lanka, that currency of Sri Lankan rupee c ould not be hedged against the dollar in the absence of any mechanism to do so. Therefore, we are constantly studying to find out how to make sure that this is handled in future. One of them, through the infusion, through conversion of debt into equity, okay, which was a planned one. It has nothing to do with what has happened in quarter one. We'll have to find other ways in which this is better managed.
Got it, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next follow-up question from the line of Raghunandhan NL from Nuvama Research. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity again. Sir, just a housekeeping question. For standalone business, exports you shared was 20%. Can you share the mix of replacement and OEM for Q1? Also, for the revenue mix, if you can give it between trucks and buses, two-wheeler, LCV, CV, specialty, that will be helpful.
Revenue mix for standalone is about 20- odd% for international business and about 50% and 30% for replacement and OE. That's the business mix. And what was your other question? The growth, right?
No, sir. The product-wise mix, trucks and buses, two-wheeler, LCV, four-wheeler and specialty. That mix. If you have it handy, otherwise I can take it later.
Yeah. I think.
Yeah, generally we don't share so much, Raghu. These are there in the annual report, not quarter-on-quarter. We have not shared it that way. But I don't think it was very different from our annual numbers of last year.
Noted, sir. Noted. Just one last question. On the two-wheeler capacity side, the one which is being set up at Nagpur, that would be roughly about 100,000 tires per day? Just clarifying that. Then over and above that, this new additional capacity will come up.
Yes, that's correct.
Got it, sir. Thank you. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Vijay Pandey from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the follow-up. I just wanted to check better MTM cost, the interest expense. So, [audio distortion] because it's dependent upon the currency fluctuation, how do you see this thing moving forward? What is the base interest expense for that $80 million borrowing?
I think, you know, it's a related party transaction. We have to ensure that the interest rate on such a related party transaction is on arm's length basis. Therefore, we have a benchmarking mechanism in terms of what the interest rates are, and accordingly, we have done it. It's very close to the rate of interest, say, about in the range of around 8% kind of interest rate. Whether it'll happen in the future, l ook, Sri Lankan rupee has been little bit volatile. After the crisis, Sri Lankan rupee depreciated to a dollar. It went up to LKR 370, LKR 380 to $1 . Once economy stabilized, it came to around LKR 290, LKR 295. Prior to crisis, Sri Lankan rupee used to be LKR 185 to $1 . LKR 185, LKR 190 to $1 . Going forward, if the Sri Lankan currency depreciates further, it'll have an impact not on $80 million.
Hopefully, once the conversion happens, it'll be on, say, $56 million. We'll also parallel trying to find out whether the currency-related impact can be mitigated in any other way. It can also work other way around also. If the Sri Lankan rupee were to appreciate, it may also have a positive balance. Therefore, it's linked to all this. Today, because of macroeconomic reasons, the country is impacted on account of lower number of tourists, higher crude oil prices, higher inflation. That is playing a role, and the drop that we saw in last quarter was quite steep. We haven't seen it that kind of a steep depreciation of their currency post that crisis period. It entirely depends on it.
Okay. Just one question on marketing expense. Can you provide the quantum of marketing expense in Q1 and fourth quarter for standalone business?
Our expenses are in the range of 2%- 2.1% of sales. It was slightly higher in quarter one because of the spends on IPL that we do. For the year, it should be around that level.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as the last question for today. With that concludes the question-and-answer session. I now hand the conference back to the management for the closing comments.
Thanks everyone for attending the call patiently. We would look forward to meeting you again at the end of quarter two. Thank you.
Thank you, members of the management. On behalf of Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited, we conclude this conference. Thank you everyone for joining with us today, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.