Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome you all to Q1 FY25 results conference call of Sagar Cements Limited. We have with us from the management, Mr. Sreekanth Reddy, Joint Managing Director; Mr. K. Prasad, CFO; Mr. J. Raja Reddy, Company Secretary, and Mr. Rajesh Singh, the Chief Marketing Officer. We will start today's session by opening remarks from the management, and then will be followed by a Q&A. I would now request, Gavin Desa of, CDR, to please, give his opening remarks, and then we move on to the management remarks. Thanks, Gavin. Over to you, Gavin.
Thank you, Manish. Thank you, Manish, for the introduction. In addition, I would just like to point out that some of the statements made in today's discussions may be forward-looking in nature, and a note to this effect has been shared in the conf call invite sent to you earlier, along with, we've also sent the presentation and the other documents, relevant documents. I would now like to request Mr. Sreekanth Reddy to make his opening remarks. Over to you, Sreekanth.
Thank you, Gavin. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Sagar Cements earnings call for the quarter ended June 30, 2024. Let me begin the discussions with a brief overview of the market in terms of demand and pricing, post which I will move on to Sagar-specific developments. Overall, Q1 was expectedly a soft quarter, marked by muted demand and realizations. Volume offtake trended lower amidst heat wave, labor unavailability, and a slowdown in construction activity because of the general elections. While certain pockets did witness pickup in demand during the later part of the quarter, on an overall basis, though it was largely subdued. Prices as well were largely benign across key markets, in line with feeble demand and heightened competitive intensity, which in turn resulted in lower profit.
However, we do expect situations to start improving in the second half onwards, both in terms of demand and pricing environment. Let me now move on to our quarterly performance. As mentioned earlier, Q1 has been relatively muted amidst lower demand and pricing environment. Our overall volumes for the quarter stood at 1.28 million. For the full year, we, we have overall volume target of 6.5 million. Moving on to the headline numbers, our revenue for the quarter stood at INR 561 crore, as against INR 540 crore during Q1 FY 2024, higher by 4%. EBITDA for the quarter stood at INR 47 crore, as against INR 31 crore generated during Q1 FY 2024. Margins for the quarter stood at 8%, as against 6% in Q1, uh, FY 2024.
EBITDA per ton stood at INR 356 during the quarter, as against INR 259 during Q1 FY 2024. We remain committed to lowering our costs and strengthening our position as one of the lowest-cost cement producers in the country. With improvement in operational efficiencies across our units and higher share of renewable power in the mix, we expect our profitability and margins to improve in coming years. Loss after tax stood at INR 32 crore for the quarter, as against a loss of INR 42 crore generated during Q1 FY 2024. In terms of key operational activities, expansion plan at Dachepalli unit of Andhra Cements Limited is progressing as per schedule. Power and fuel cost stood at INR 1,470 per ton, as against INR 1,732 per ton reported during Q1 FY 2024.
Freight cost for the quarter stood at INR 844 per ton, as against INR 862 per ton during Q1 FY 2024. From an operational point of view, Mattampally plant operated at 49% utilization, while Gudipadu, Bayyavaram, Jeerabad, Jajpur, and Dachepalli plants operated at 78%, 62%, 75%, 26%, and 25% respectively during the quarter. As far as the key balance sheet items are concerned, the gross debt as on 30 June 2024 stood at INR 1,462 crores, out of which INR 1,203 crores as long-term debt, and the remaining constitutes the working capital. The net worth of the company on a consolidated basis as on 30 June 2024 stood at INR 1,987 crores. Net equity ratio stands at 0.661:1.
Cash and bank balances were at INR 168 crore as on 30 June 2020. Board has recorded its approval for setting up 6.6-MW solar power plants, each at Gudipadu and Dachepalli units, which is in line with our stated ESG roadmap and the objectives. In summary, we believe our enhanced capacities position us well to capture the growing infrastructure and real estate demand over the coming years. Furthermore, our efforts towards diversifying revenue streams, increasing our regional footprint, should help us in improving the overall profitability profile of the company. That concludes my opening remarks. We would now be glad to take any questions that you may have. Thank you again.
Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question and answer session. A reminder to all participants, you can ask your question by raise of hands in the participant tab of the Zoom platform. We'll wait for a moment for the questions. The first question is from Shravan Shah. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you, sir. Just, sir, in terms of the guidance what we have previously talked about, so we have obviously, we have mentioned in the presentation 6.5 million ton volume. So, despite this quarter, maybe slightly on the lower side, what the number we share in terms of the pure sales, so I'm talking not including the clinker, so which is significantly higher in this quarter, 89,000 odd tons. So there we are confident that it will be there in terms of the 6.5 million tons. So that is first, just wanted a confidence on that part. Second, coming on the pricing and the profitability.
So if you can help us, how the prices, current prices are versus the Q1 averages, and, if possible, in terms of the state-wise, how the prices have moved in this, Q1 versus the fourth quarter?
Yeah. Thank you, Mr. Shravan. I'm assuming that you wanted reconfirmation on the volume guidance, right? I think, yeah, we are reasonably sure that we should be very close to 6.5 million. This includes the sold volumes that have been moved, and this definitely excludes the clinker sale, Mr. Shravan. So 6.5 is our volume guidance. From a confidence perspective, I think, as the quarters slide, we should have a lot more clarity on the volume guidance. But at this point of time, in spite of Q1, and we are assuming Q2 also to be as challenging, we believe we should be very close to 6.5 million is what we think, Shravan.
From a profitability guidance perspective, we are with a belief that we should do 6.5 million. The overall EBITDA should be in the range of around INR 350 to INR 375 crores. It should roughly translate to INR 550 to INR 575 EBITDA per ton. I think on that count, we are of a belief that overall kind of a cost, there should be some amount of improvement because of the operating leverage. We are not factoring any further cost pressures going up. At the same time, most of the savings which we are likely to happen, have been realized. So barring the operating leverage, we are not expecting a major changes on the cost side, and we think that should be on a positive tone.
So on the realization front, internally, our estimation is that, till middle of Q3, we don't expect a major changes in the realization. So that's what we have penciled in. So with that, we believe that, the EBITDA guidance should be in the range of around, INR 350 to INR 375 crores, for the full year. Now, going to the, pricing trends from Q4 to the current Q1, we believe, or at least what we have noticed in most of our operating markets, there has been a drop of INR 5 per bag from the exit of Q4 till, you know, middle of this month, Mr. Shravan . That has been the case across the markets. That has been the case across the markets.
So from Q4 or from Q1, from June till now, there is a further INR 5 drop?
Yeah, that's what I mentioned. It is exit of Q4 to the middle of this month, there is a drop of almost INR 5.
Okay, just INR 5. From March till now, only the INR 5 drop.
No, from June. I'm talking from June.
Okay.
Looking at
Yeah. So June is the Q1.
Sorry, sorry. Yeah.
Q1.
Sorry, sorry, sorry. Yeah. I think it's my mistake. Yeah, it's from end of June to the... So it's almost INR 15 drop from Q4 exit to the current month.
Okay. And then, in Q1, broadly, how the state-wise or the, broadly south, how much price decline that we have seen versus the Q4? So June quarter versus
I think it is INR 10.
March quarter, how much decline and if for
See, I think, the drop from Q4 to the Q1, you know, the overall, we have seen almost INR 10 per bag across the market. Yeah. There, there has been a significant, slightly higher in Tamil Nadu, but for us, but the average is around INR 10 drop from Q4 to the end of Q1. From, exit of Q1 to so far in the month, we see another INR 5 drop.
Okay. But given that the, despite whatever the M&A is happening, do we think that this year, as you have mentioned, that middle of third quarter, we expect a price hike? Because for us, that is the major in terms of increasing the profitability for us, because as you mentioned, that not much-
See-
scope in terms of the cost reduction.
No, Mr. Shravan, it again is also to do with the product mix. See, we are, we are not penciling in a major kind of a cost realization increase, sir. What we are assuming is whatever is the drop from an off-season to the season, around INR 10, 10 rupees is what we have penciled in. INR 10 to INR 15 is what we have penciled in, starting from middle of Q3, Mr. Shravan. We are not trying to be euphoric about the potential kind of a price increase that is possible in the marketplace. What we have penciled is INR 10 to INR 15 per bag, potentially it could go up from middle of Q3 is what we are, we are factoring in. Which is normal seasonal kind of-
Okay, okay. And lastly, in terms of the incentive, that INR 30 crore for MP, so we need now-
Yeah, we are, we are expecting in the coming
Come in Q2?
Yeah, we are expecting in the current month itself, Mr. Shevan.
Okay, okay, okay. That's great. All the best, all the best, sir.
Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Shevan.
Thank you. The next question is from Keshav Lahoti. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hi, thank you for the opportunity. So I want to understand one thing on the realization. We do understand the normal trend realization to pick up from Q3,. But will this time be different? Because what we are seeing, you know, Penna is acquired by Ambuja. India Cements, also some states acquired by UltraTech. Some sort of, you know, consolidation is happening, and these assets are already operating at low utilization, so the bigger hands will try to ramp up the utilization. So this can lead to, you know, muted realization this time in H2 also?
Yeah, Mr. Keshav, I have very limited comments on how they are going to manage. So, so our experience is that, definitely some of the assets which were, utilized lesser, probably would potentially move up. But, but that also is in line with the expected demand, ramping up in due course of time. So will it lead to, price erosion? I think we are already hitting the bottom, though I would never say that we have hit the last, last kind of a number, but the ability for price to move down further from here is very, very limited, sir. Because the players are, I think it is going to be a bigger loss, I would put it from here on.
So given that scenario, I'm sure they acquired these assets, assets from a business perspective, so that may not lead to something which is very unusual. But internally, we did factor that prices only would pick up in line with the demand ramp-up rather than, you know, any of the market players' action. Mr. Keshav.
Understood. Got it. As Jeerabad incentive, you will start recording from July month, so will full INR 30 crore will be recorded this year, or it will be more like, for three quarters only?
No, I think as we would receive, we will be, confirming it, sir. We are expecting the current month, most likely we should receive. Because as we speak, I think tomorrow there is an investor, summit that is happening in Madhya Pradesh for Jabalpur, sir. So the communication that we have received is that we would be receiving immediately after that. Because most of the official machinery, was missing from Bhopal, so they did commit that, we should expect it anytime soon. So, we believe that we should receive these, incentives in the coming month itself.
Okay, so it's a possibility, like, the entire INR 30 crore might be recorded this year, around INR 30 crore, right?
We think so, sir. Though we need to look at the breakup, but we are confident that we should receive the, If not in the current quarter, at least before the end of the current financial year, we should have received the entire 30.
Understood. Got it. What was the clinker sale in this quarter, and what was the realization for the clinker sale?
Yeah, I think it's on an average, around 84,000 has been the sale of clinker for the last quarter, sir. The average realization is close to around INR 3,050 kind of an amount per ton. I'm talking of-
Yeah.
Exworks, sir.
3,050, right?
Yes, sir. Yes, sir.
Understood. One last question from my side. Fuel costs are expected to remain stable from Q1 average?
Yeah, that's what we have penciled in. Though there is a dollar here or there, but we have covered more than two-thirds of our volumes is already inventoried, sir. So our hedge is only open for probably one-third of the year, for the full year. So given this scenario, we believe that it might remain flat.
Understood.
In our case, sir. In our case. See, general market trend, yeah, what we started seeing, from the earlier months to now, I think it has gone up by $1. I'm talking of pet coke, sir. It, it went up by $1 per ton.
Understood. Got it. That is quite helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Mangesh Bhadang. Please go ahead, Mangesh.
Hi, good morning, sir. Am I audible?
Yeah, good morning, Mr. Mangesh. Yes, you are, loud and clear.
Okay, sir. So, sir, first question is on the volume. So, the PPT mentions volumes of cement only, right? So the 84,000 is extra, which we need to add to the-
Yes, sir. Yes, sir. Our disclosure when it comes to volumes, it's only on cement, sir. We have never included clinker in the past, so it remains, so even now.
Yeah, so but the revenue and cost do include the
Yes, sir. The, when you look at the absolute numbers, I think it includes, but when it comes to specific numbers for, you know, per ton basis, I think what we have done is we have normalized it only for the cement sale. So that is where I think there is some amount of confusion. If you have to do a straight arithmetic, it would be a challenge. So what we have disclosed is for a pure cement number. That is, per ton, is purely on per ton cement only.
Okay. Okay.
We made relevant correction in terms of revenue and the related associated costs.
Okay, yeah. Second one is on the capacities in South. So, I think Shree Cement's Guntur would have started, and even Dalmia has commissioned the grinding units, along with some other companies. So is the supply situation in your markets, is what I wanted to understand. You use, is that the pressure because of this? Because it is anyways going to increase post Penna, My Home coming into the picture.
No, I think there are two aspects. One, it's a demand and there is a supply. See, at the end of the day, demand is almost close to 20% lower compared to last year, same time to now. Year-on-year number is 20% down, for obvious reasons that which we discussed even in the earlier call. That elections and the weather-related issues definitely took a toll. Now, coupled with that, there are some ramping up of Ramco's Kolimigundla plant, along with Shree's Dachepalli plant. And I believe the grinding plant of Dalmia also got commissioned in the deep south. And same is the case with the ramp-up of My Home's line at Mellacheruvu.
So what we are expecting from here on is ramp up of UltraTech Tadipatri line three. We are also expecting Deccan also to get commissioned anytime soon, and a ramp-up policy is likely to happen. So this, your Kallur, the Chettinad Kallur plant also, I believe, got commissioned. But that is more west bound rather than south bound. But these are the three major supplies that are likely to get ramped up from the coming few months to quarters, Mr. Mangesh. Along with some amount of realignment of restarts of plants of Penna, with Adani Group taking over those assets. But these are likely to happen in a phased manner.
I'm not talking of Adani's ramp-up, but the entire supply into the region is likely to happen in a phased manner. Not that everything is going to abruptly fall on it. But this might also get aligned with the potential kind of a demand, that is, we strongly believe that, from middle of Q3, the demand is likely to sharp up, go up sharply. So net, it may not be significantly altering the overall kind of demand-supply equation.
That was the next question, sir. So basically, after the political outcomes in both these states, especially, Andhra, so what kind of demand expectation do you have? And on the ground, whatever you've been hearing regarding Amaravati capital project, have any work started or you see in our-
No, Mr. Mangesh, Mr. Mangesh, I think the good news is that government is very keen to develop Amaravati in a big way, but we should be very pragmatic about what is likely to come. See, the government just came, so I think by the time they settle in and most of the demand from Amaravati starts picking up, we believe that it may be later half of this year as a best case scenario, but most of it, we believe that it should happen in the next year, from next year onwards. But in general, most of the deferral during these election times and the off-season, we expect them to come back, because, as you know, the demand was at its peak when we started getting into the electioneering.
So it's likely that that continued, that those works are likely to start fully implementing from middle of end of Q2. So the demand is likely to start pick up from middle of Q3, is what we strongly believe.
Thank you, sir. That's it.
Thank you, Mr. Mangesh.
Thank you. The next question is from Amit Murarka. Amit, please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, good afternoon, thanks for the opportunity. So, again, following up on the earlier discussion around the new clinker capacities as well as Penna ramp-up. So, firstly, like, in Andhra, AP, Telangana, so what would be the current utilization at the industry level? Is it like 70-75% now?
Then, Mr. Amit, you should know that it's close to 110 odd million ton kind of an installed capacity in both these states combined. Okay? So, you should pencil in quite a few things, because 50% of Andhra's capacity typically ends up servicing the outside states. So the average capacity utilization in our view is somewhere around 45 to 50, in general. There could be one or two units which could be exceptionally higher or lower than this, but in general, the capacity utilization is somewhere around, in the range of around 45% to 50%.
I thought last two years, the demand has been very strong. I mean, I believe it is at up, like, 20% or so, right? I mean
Yeah. Mr. Amit, you should understand that you're talking of 110 million, sir, so you're, you're not talking of a smaller number. At clinker level, for sure, I think the utilization was fairly strong because there is some amount of clinker outflow from both the states into the other grinding locations which are outside the region and the state. It's likely that we might go back to those numbers reasonably quickly or maybe in the current year itself, in the current fiscal itself. It's likely that we'll go back to the numbers where we, where we were before the start of the electioneering. So that is a possibility. That is the reason why we believe that the current Q1, the overall degrowth is at 20%, sir.
So we might end up having a kind of flat to slightly positive kind of a bias at the end of the year. That's what we are factoring in for the entire south as a market.
Understood. And also, as far as these plants are concerned, you mentioned My Home, line four, line four commissioned, I think it was about, I think, end of December or Q3, FY 2024 odd, and then Shree commissioned in April. So, would you be, would you be aware, like, particularly for My Home line, is it already ramped up or, it is still facing issues?
No, Mr. Amit, I think the typical ramp-up, I think, is happening. I don't know specific numbers for each of the unit-wise, but I think ramping up is happening, so that's what we are in it. Same would be the case with Shree Cement. I don't know the specific numbers unit-wise, but I think it looks like they are also ramping up in line with the market.
Okay. Okay. So, I mean, if you are already at 45% to 50%, anyways, few more units don't matter then.
No, we are at 45 at Mattampally, sir. We are only at 26 at Andhra. So there is some catch-up that is required from our end, but we are waiting for the demand. As always, we have been a market player, so we believe that likely we should hit these numbers before the end of this fiscal itself.
... Got it. And just one more question. So, generally, if I have to see the pricing, you know, movement in the last, I would say, two, two years or so, while the AP Telangana pricing has been, I think, actually up, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, have actually come off a lot to a point that Tamil Nadu probably is now in line with, AP Telangana. So do you think that with, with this Penna acquisition and, also these new units which are coming, you could again get into a situation wherein the AP Telangana pricing goes into a discount to Tamil Nadu?
No, no, Mr. Amit, I go with what is, see Penna's supply from the location of the plants is more southbound, not. I'm talking of south, southbound. They only have 1 million to 1.2 million tons installed capacity in the Nalgonda cluster. Rest everything is either in Maharashtra or towards Maharashtra or Deep South. So from that perspective, would it influence? I cannot comment, but rationally speaking, it should not. And as such, we believe that Andhra Telangana prices did not move up, sir. They remained flat. It's unfortunate that Deep South prices have corrected quite steeply. For the first time in my career, sir, I have seen Chennai prices either at par or lower than great par. This we have never noticed.
So would Hyderabad prices get corrected way below Chennai prices just because Chennai prices have come down? Only time will tell, but I think the Hyderabad prices are not at its best either. So, so from here, is there a scope for Hyderabad prices to come down? It's only negligibly it could go down, sir. If it is go down below that, I think the whole industry is already bleeding, sir. So it means it's going to be a late part.
Oh, sure. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Shravan. Please go ahead, Shravan.
Hi, sir. Sir, this Vizag land sale, so any update of-
I think we would be in a much better situation. The status remains same as the last call, sir, because we could not go to any of the government departments, as you know, that it's in transition. So we have been indicated that it could probably take another couple of months for us to reapproach them, because out of the three critical milestones, we only achieved one. There is two more. So from a time perspective, what we have indicated before end of this December or to the middle of Q4, I think that timeline, at this point of time, we would like to keep it status quo because nothing much has moved. We would be in a much better situation to take a call, probably in the next quarter call, Mr.
Shravan. So we believe that we should have a lot more information about the focus on that by the time we address the Q2 results, we will be in a much better situation.
So, so most likely by March end, we should be able to monetize. So that's, that was our preference.
You see, as it looks, as I mentioned, the status quo will be, there was not much of a movement, and it is in line with our internal timelines, what we have indicated, sir. So it looks like that we should be ready by then.
Okay. Okay. Okay. That's great. Second, sir, just trying to understand. So, so, so you mentioned in terms of the cost reduction from now onwards, not much scope. So whatever the cost that we are having in this quarter, so from here on, what maximum cost reduction can possible or-
See, in, in our plans, sir, the roadmap we have clearly indicated even in our presentation about the CapEx plan. So we are sticking to our CapEx plan. So with each of those implementation, we do expect some potential savings. Like for example, in the current year, slightly that we would commission 2 2x6 MW solar plants, one at Gudipadu and one at Dachepalli. When it gets implemented, sir, we expect annual saving of around INR 5 crores once we have commissioned both of them. Then the other, where we have already completed the technical kind of a specification and inquiries, and more or less, we are ready with the order placement, is for the 4 MW waste recovery system at Gudipadu. So but it's an 18-month effect from the day we place the order.
So we are waiting for some amount of clarity from a financing perspective, because we did indicate that we would not like to move up from the net debt position that we are in. But the current cash flows are exactly enough for us to fulfill the current obligations on the CapEx, what we have narrated. So we still would want to wait for the market to improve before we would like to place order on the waste heat recovery. So the only orders that we are doing on the CapEx is on solar and the ongoing CapEx at Dachepalli and as well as at the two other locations where we are doing small investments to ramp up the brownfield capacities at both Gudipadu as well as at Satguru
Mm-hmm.
So from that perspective, we don't expect any-
Okay, okay.
Material cost levers to kick in the current year, except for the operating costs, which are likely to continue to a certain extent.
Okay. And in Q1, how much CapEx we have done?
33 crore, sir.
33 crore. And sir, just wanted to understand why we have sold such a significant clinker, 89,000 odd this... So why can't we, we sold the cement?
Sir, I think you should understand that this is an off market, sir. So market, when it is down, there was an opportunity that came by, so it's not that you would get it every time. So we had this opportunity. We ended up selling because we had too much of inventory. So either we had to shut the plant and increase the cost structure, because obviously overheads would always remain higher, right? So when this opportunity came and the transaction happened at a reasonably good realization. So there is a decent margin that was available.
Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir.
Thank you, Mr. Sharma.
Thank you. We have the next follow-up from Keshav Lahoti. Please go ahead.
Sir, is it possible to bifurcate the Andhra CapEx for this year and next year?
We would be happy, sir. I think we would, if you can bear with us, we would be happy to share detailed kind of a breakdown. There is some amount of small changes that might happen. We would revert, Mr. Keshav. I think you would be... See, at the, in the current year, we indicated that it should be close to around INR 300 odd crores. Out of that, we have already done a CapEx of INR 30 crores. So the breakup is part of the presentation, Mr. Keshav, but we would be very happy to again share it once again with you. So around INR 150 odd crores.
Understood. Got it.
Yeah. If you look at the slide 12, we did indicate the overall kind of a CapEx plan for Andhra, sir. It is INR 255 for the current financial year-
Got it.
with the balance in FY 2026, but we would be very happy to share, just in case you want that breakdown.
No, no. Got it, got it. Sorry, I missed it.
Thanks.
Yeah. And lastly, on this clinker sale, so how should we see the clinker sale? More like INR 100 EBITDA per ton. It was more like you want to operate the plant, so maybe a minimum EBITDA transition.
Sir, I think you should understand that it was a season when there was a requirement from one of our neighboring companies, so it's usually nobody denies you. You know, they had some maintenance issues, so we ended up servicing it. It's a one-off opportunity that we have had, sir. It's not like we always would like to sell clinker. So there was too much of inventory, so we thought it would be helpful instead of trying to shut the plant and have a higher operating costs. So we thought it's an opportunity that we ended up encashing.
Understood. Thank you. That's it.
Thank you. The next question is from Vibha Jain. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Sir, my question is regarding the renewable energy capacity target. So, like, we are targeting 50% in FY 2030. So are there any interim targets, like we have announced 6 MW each in Dachepalli and other regions. So any interim target for FY 2025, 2026 for the renewable energy?
See, I think, we stated that we would want renewable power to be 50% of our total electrical energy portfolio. We are committed to that. Now, part of that, we did indicate the CapEx plan in our presentation, Vibha, by year. If you can look at the same slide 12, yeah, we did indicate... Yeah, just solar Gudipadu is 6 MW by FY 2025. Waste heat recovery for Gudipadu by FY 2027. Solar 4 MW at Mattampally by FY 2027. Waste heat recovery for line one at Mattampally, which is 2 MW, by FY 2028. Solar at Jeerabad, 4 MW, FY 2027.
The only thing that we preponed was waste heat recovery of 9 megawatts at Dachepalli, that we are doing 6 megawatts in the current year itself, which was slated for FY 2029. Sorry, solar was at 6 MW for FY 2025. I think it is more or less done. Waste heat recovery at Dachepalli, which is 9 MW, for FY 2029. So I think these are the interim targets, which we have clearly indicated in our slide 12, part of our investor presentation, Vibha.
Yeah. Yes. And sir, again, on the demand and pricing environment, you talked about the South Asian, like the demand has declined by 20% and prices are also declining. So can you please share what is the pricing and demand scenario in the central region, mostly in MP?
See, again, central is a big area for us. We are very specific to the, you know, the, western part of, MP as the market for us, and to certain extent, certain pockets of Gujarat.
Got it.
Our assessment is that Madhya Pradesh market has come down by 15% year-on-year.
And-
Whereas Gujarat actually is trending upward, but it is 5% lower current quarter, year-on-year kind of it.
Okay.
Odisha, Odisha is flat to slightly with a positive bias. So these are some of the state trends other than the South, that we follow regularly.
Okay. Okay. And sir, lastly, on Andhra Cement, like, earlier, we have guided to be breakeven it by Q1 FY 2026. So, is that stance continuing?
Yeah, can you repeat the question, Vibha?
Sir, Andhra Cements, we have been guided to be at breakeven by Q1 FY 2026.
Yeah, I think we should be very close to that timeline, Vibha. It's a question of ramping up.
Mm-hmm.
The internal, you know, the capacity as well as optimization is going in a very brisk way. It's a question of doing volumes. I think, yeah, we should, we should, we should be breakevening by Q1 is what is the only thing.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Tushar. Please go ahead.
Hello, am I audible?
Yeah, very clear, Mr. Tushar, so please go ahead.
Okay. So my first question is regarding that you are doing a substantial CapEx for power generation. So I just want to know that what sort of EBITDA return could one get if all your power requirement was sourced through, like, solar power generation? I know that's what - that's not what you're aiming for, but let's say hypothetically, if one would source all their power through solar generation, how would that affect their EBITDA return levels?
Yeah, Mr. Tushar, solar cannot service 100% of our electrical power, because as you know that, we do not have battery. Since, s o when solar, when sun is around, we get- we generate, but plant runs 24/7. So in our outlook, we are looking at all the entire green sources. So if, if, if my understanding is correct, your question is, if we turn green, and the entire thing is from green power, what potentially it could contribute from an EBITDA perspective, right? EBITDA per ton perspective.
Yes.
So now, see, at this point of time, we are close to around 30% of our entire electrical requirement is coming from green power. This is both renewable as well as the waste recovery. Now, if the minute we go up to 50%, that is incrementally, we believe that it should contribute close to around another INR 50 to INR 75 per ton, because you should... Yeah, it also has its cost, right? It's not that it is coming free, so that CapEx also needs to become factored in. Right now, the overall average blended cost for us per unit, per kilowatt, is around INR 6 per unit.
So we believe that once we get into the from current 30 to if we move to 50, the cost it potentially could come down to around INR 5 to INR 475. So that delta is what it would be, sir, around roughly around INR 50 to INR 75 is what we should expect.
Okay, sir. And my next question is regarding that. What's the usual frequency for maintenance of kilns? Like, you have to, at some frequent intervals, you have to maintain your kilns, right? You have to do some brick lining or kiln relining . How, what's that frequency?
Yeah, Mr. Tushar, see, there are two things, sir. One is a long-term one, rather, three things, medium and a short term. Okay, now let us look at the long term. Long term, typically every decade, you know, we need to overhaul not only the kiln, but the associated equipment, like motors, kiln tires, some amount of shell and everything needs a replacement. But in a medium term, of course, there are some amount of shell replacement and again, I'm not limiting myself to kiln, but I'm talking of the entire pyro system itself. That includes the preheater, kiln and the cooler. Medium term, it demands some amount of replacement to some of the consumables, especially the refractory and the castables, and the spare parts that are long term, medium term for a cooler.
Short term, it is limited only to burning zone, sir. So most of the brick lining in the burning zone and slightly higher temperature zone needs replacement every six to nine months' time. Same would be the case with some moving parts in a cooler that needs quick maintenance in the short term. But all in all, what we generally do, not only for the kiln, sir, but the entire equipment, we factor anywhere between INR 150 to INR 200 per ton as the repairs and maintenance kind of a cost for the overall kind of an equipment. And a large longer-term kind of a replacement is typically capitalized because these are meant for, you know, sometimes 10 years, sometimes 7 years, so they get capitalized.
Okay, the INR 150 to INR 200 per ton that you've given for maintenance cost is for a year, right, on average?
Yes, sir, per ton, per a year, that would be the usual. That includes the repairs and maintenance and some consumables that get added up.
Okay, sir.
I'm only talking of this pyro and all, sir, but there are other consumables like lubricants and all, which are slightly factored differently. That should be another INR 100 extra.
Okay, that's fair enough. And so the last question is regarding your plant at Dachepalli. Right now, it's at utilization of around 29%.
Yes.
You have planned an expansion. So what are your plans for ramping up the utilization?
Mr. Tushar... Yeah, Mr. Tushar, sorry, I'm preempting. See, this is not an expansion alone. Expansion is incidental, sir. The idea is to increase the efficiency of the plant. So the investment was more directed towards increasing the efficiency rather than an expansion kind of a mode. Since we are adding a new generation preheater, so it also is helping us have an additional output, but the primary purpose for this investment is to increase the efficiencies. Because the old pyro system is a 4-stage preheater with a separate line, 5-stage calciner line, sir. It's almost 15-year-old kind of a setup. Now, what we are doing is we are going up with a 6-stage in-line full stream calciner.
From earlier 800 kCal it used to consume for clinker, we are targeting at less than 700 kind of a kCal with this investment, sir. So this also is helping us increase the output of the pyro system. So that is where most of the investment is directed. Same is the case with the grinding circuit, sir. So there were two standalone ball mills earlier. So of course, they had installed the pre-grinder before for one ball mill. So what we are also doing is, we are also adding one more pre-grinder as a roll press for one more ball mill. I mean, these measures are primarily from a perspective of increasing the overall kind of an efficiency and reduce the cost, which incidentally also is helping us increase the output. So that is where our stated objective is, Mr. Tushar.
But if you look at our operating outlook, what we have indicated for Andhra, we don't expect it to cross more than 60% over the next five years' time either way. Because that is more in line with what we believe are the markets that it services, the overall kind of a demand-supply equation in those areas probably would not be any different than what we have penciled in. So the idea is not to expand, sir, the idea is to optimize the overall cost.
Okay, sir, that answers all of my questions. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Mr. Tushar.
Thank you, Tushar. The next question is from Mr. Jayesh Gandhi. Please go ahead. Mr. Jayesh, you can unmute your line, and please go ahead with your question. Okay, we'll wait for his response. So in the meanwhile, just one question from my side. How much, in terms of the overall cost, would come down for Andhra Cement after the entire CapEx is done?
See, as I mentioned, Mr. Manish, that, we, we are expecting, around five electrical A, again, let me break down into two parts. One is up to clinker, and the other is for the cement.
Okay.
Now, what I'm talking is only up to clinker, sir. It is for anybody to make a calculation, which is relatively easier. So we are expecting a close to around 100 kCal reduction. So on, on per kCal, whatever is the likely price. At this point of time, it is INR 1.50-odd per kCal, because here we are also using imported coal, plus it's a blend of imported coal with petcoke, so the average is around INR 1.60 to INR 1.70 per kCal in, in, in specific this instance. So you, you multiply that into whatever the 100 kCals, so it comes to around 160 to 170 is the saving there. But we are also incurring quite a bit of on the maintenance side, because these are relatively old.
The kiln is almost close to 40-year-old kind of a kiln setup, so bulk of the investment also is going into that. So breakdown cost and all, we expect another INR 50-odd from the mechanical maintenance-related issues. We are expecting around 7 electrical units to come down. From the current 60-odd units, we expect it to be close to 50-odd, but I'm assuming it should be 7 electrical units, that should be close to INR 40-odd should come down. So all in all, we are looking at close to INR 250 per ton up to clinker to come down. And from a perspective of cement grinding, we expect the number of units to come down by 5 units. So that should be another INR 25-odd at a cement level.
But cement is a bit complex because it's again to do with OPC and PPC, so factoring that would be a challenge. So from a clinker to that conversion factor, if we have to look at it and do that, I think we should definitely save INR 250 on average at a cement level, once the entire project is done. This I'm talking only on the CapEx related, sir. Then, of course, there are other costs related, this thing with renewable power investment and all that should be topping the overall kind of cost reductions that are likely to happen. I have not factored waste heat recovery, nor I have factored the solar unit at Andhra as in these numbers.
Got it. So this is the existing CapEx plan that will
Yes, sir. Yes, sir.
reduce?
Yes, sir.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much. The next question is from Jayesh Gandhi. Please go ahead. Mr. Jayesh, you can please go ahead. Your line is unmuted. Okay, we'll take the next question from Rajesh Ravi. Rajesh, you can please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Good afternoon. Am I audible?
Yes, sir. Very clear.
Hi, sir. So, given the target that you're, you know, 360, 370, 380 rupees EBITDA per ton, you know, 200 to 240, 250 odd crore at max EBITDA, you're looking for this financial year.
No, Mr. Rajesh, again, can I? See, we are looking anywhere between INR 350 crores to INR 375 crores as an absolute EBITDA, Mr. Rajesh. So, I just want to clarify that we are looking at the current Q1 and Q2, we expect trends to be very similar, sir, but we do expect-
Okay.
H2 to be slightly better. So all in, we are factoring from current INR 360 odd, we assume it should move to INR 350 on an average for the full year, Mr. Rajesh.
Okay, okay. So full year around 530 to 540 per ton, you're looking at?
Yes, sir. Yes.
Okay. Sir, what is your net debt targets for end of this financial year?
I think we-
We are maybe.
-we should be at a similar level, sir. I think around INR 1,300 odd, INR 1,250 to INR 1,300 is what we are limiting ourselves, so I think we would be capping our net debt position there. Gross, we would not exceed the current position itself.
This land sale, which you were targeting, but you're seeing no progress so far, so, fair to say-
I would not say no progress, sir. It. The last quarter, we could not, we did not get any update because most of the government establishment was more directed towards electioneering.
Mm-hmm.
Right now, it is in transition. So out of three critical milestones, sir, we did make a progress, so we covered one. So there are two more critical milestones to be covered. So even when we indicated that it should be done by, you know, before the current financial year itself, we are maintaining that at this point of time, but we would have a lot more clarity probably in coming few quarters, Mr. Rajesh.
Okay. And so how much you are targeting if this financial year you would be closing this? How much cash inflow this can bring in?
No, we are not, we have not factored any cash flows from the monetization of this land, Mr. Rajesh, in the current year.
No, no, understood. You have not factored in your current estimates. I'm looking, I'm just asking, in case you are able to monetize this, how much cash this may bring in?
No, I think we would start interacting with potential buyers who are interested in this only after we would have crossed one more critical milestone, sir. So we believe that it should happen in the coming few quarters. So far, we did not approach. As indicated earlier, sir, the current government indicated rate for the registration is at INR 4 crores an acre.
Okay, okay, understood. And lastly, given that now Penna is acquired and they would be ramping up, 10 million ton capacity, you know, we're struggling with working capital, would now go full throttle, and even, Kesoram will see some uptick in volumes. You know, this year, this may get consummated in UltraTech, and a few more assets are under talks, you know, as per market chatter. So how should we look at the South landscape, and for a place like you, your utilization is already low. You know, will that impact, the... will keep the margin subdued, for more time? You know, I mean, the pricing may not see meaningful uptick for next one, two year. Is that a better understanding?
Yeah, Mr. Rajesh, I'm sure you, you look at this market much more closer than what we would. So the top ten players market shares have not moved significantly even with the post, some of the M&A that has happened, sir. So the number of actors more or less remain very close to the past numbers. So,
Mm-hmm.
So should we expect any, it any differently? Internally, we believe that it may not significantly alter, sir. I think it's a collective players market, so, so it may not change that significantly in either direction. I'm not for a minute telling that market would be much better or much worse, worse off. I think internally, what we are factoring is from an off-season to a season, there could be a, a price increase. Nothing beyond is expected in the current year, sir.
Mm-hmm.
We'll take one step at a time as these players ramp up, because I think there could be a realignment in brands and all, which currently, we are only hearing, but we are yet to see.
Okay.
So how the position of it and all would alter, those things could be significant. Now, you look at our own market position, sir.
Mm-hmm.
See, the M&A that we have seen with Adani, our significant market is still not yet impacted because the, the Penna's footprint in our own, bigger markets is very, very limited. So, so with the ramp up and all, it may not significantly alter the major markets that we are in. So that, that is what we, we believe, because even if the one asset that has to operate at 100%, it may not significantly alter the, the market landscape itself.
Okay. Okay, sir. Great. That's all from my end. We'll come back in queue. Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Rajesh.
Thank you. So the next question is from Mr. Jayesh Gandhi: What can be the capacity utilization of the entire AP, post the Amaravati development goes to full swing?
No, I think the
That's the first part of the question.
Okay. So should I address this first, Manish?
Yes, sir.
Or do you want to?
Yes. Yes.
I think our assessment is that since supply also has matched up, sir, I mean, from the, w e exactly are not in a position to really calculate the exact demand of Amaravati, but in the past, you know, five to seven years back when the Amaravati was being implemented or it was, you know, it was in the pipeline, if I have to assume that same thing, more or less remains with slightly increased outflow, outlay. Supply more or less caught up with that area, sir. But, internally, for some of the players, which are in close proximity, which most of the people are, I think it should impact around 250 to 500 basis points, not more, in terms of an utilization.
Because the demand drivers, in our view, could have changed from the earlier regimes to this. So that is what is also another factor that one has to be mindful of, when you are arranging at a potential demand with Amaravati speed. But what is very important is, the rub-off effect of Amaravati on the surrounding, districts, is something which we have to pencil in, sir. We are still trying to accumulate, the data of likely kind of impact in that, neighborhood. That is something which also, gives a, a confidence that it should improve 250 to 500 bps on an overall industry level. But at each individual players level, I don't know how much it would have impacted, because supply is more or less, on a similar line, sir. Timeline, we have looked at it.
My Home has capacity. They have added capacity. Chettinad has come up new vis-à-vis to the earlier five years back. Now, Andhra was not very active. Andhra Cement was not at its best at that point of time. So all these ramp-ups should negate the overall kind of operating rates for the players in general. Manish, address that.
Yes. Thank you, sir. Sir, the next part of the question is: What is the lead distance of our plants at Mattampally, Gudipadu and Bayyavaram, and do we have an edge in terms of the lead distance?
Yeah, Manish, edge towards Amaravati or edge towards in marketing generally? See, I think our average lead distance is somewhere around 244, what we have indicated. For each plant, I think we would be very happy separately sharing it. The average is at 244, sir. So for some units, like Jeerabad and all, it is less than 200. For Jajpur also, it is less than 200. Somewhere around 150 for Jajpur. For Mattampally and Gudipadu, it has come down. It has come down, but it may not remain so, but what we have indicated to the market is that we should be below 300 or below 280. I think we should be more or less on an average towards. Our lead distance towards Amaravati, sir, I think,
Amaravati, sir, yes.
Yeah, it's we are part of the Nalgonda cluster, sir. I think areally, some people might be very close to Amaravati, but I think the average lead distance from each of our assets should be less than 150 kilometers. Less than 100 kilometers for few, few assets of us, but on average, it should not be more than 150 in general. Because Amaravati is not just one location, sir. It's actually a big I think it's a 50 sq km kind of area. So for, for each of our assets, different direction, it is close by. But that is the case with the cluster players, sir. I think the entire Nalgonda cluster may not be very far off or may not be very close. They are equidistant to Amaravati, is what we strongly believe.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much. Anyone who has a question may please indicate by raise of hands. Sir, as there are no further questions, I would like to hand over to you for your closing comments, sir.
Yeah. Thank you, Manish. Thank you, each one of you, for taking your time out and joining and showing interest in listening to us and having to get more information about us. We would like to thank once again for all of you for joining on this call. I hope you got all the answers you are looking for. Please feel free to connect with our team at Sagar or CDR, should you need any further information or have any further queries. We will be more than happy to address them and discuss them with you. Thank you again. Have a good day. Thank you.
Thank you, everyone. That concludes the call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.