Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome you all to the 3Q FY23 Results Conference Call of Sagar Cements Limited. We have with us from the management Mr. Sreekanth Reddy, Joint Managing Director, Mr. K. Prasad, the Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Soundararajan, the Company Secretary. I would now like to hand over the floor to Gavin Desa of CDR for his opening remarks, and then we will go to the management for his opening remarks. Thank you.
Thank you, Manish, and thank you for introducing the management. I'd just like to add that some statements made in today's discussion may be forward-looking in nature, and a note to this effect was added in the con call sent, invite sent to you earlier. I trust you have gone through the presentation and the result documents. I would now like to hand over to Mr. Sreekanth Reddy for his opening remarks. Over to you, Sreekanth.
Thank you, Gavin. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Sagar Cements' earnings call for the quarter ended December 31st, 2022. Let me begin the discussion with the happy news that with regards to Andhra Cement acquisition, we would be very happy announcing that we received from the resolution professional of Andhra Cement as the successful bidder. The same has been admitted to the Amaravati bench of NCLT, that is the National Company Law Tribunal. Its final order is expected in due course of time. Since it's in the NCLT, at this point of time it is sub judice for us to discuss anything in detail. We would be very happy to come back to you pertaining to the Andhra Cement acquisition contours in due course of time.
Let me begin the discussion with a brief overview of the market in terms of demand and pricing, post which I will be happy to move on to Sagar specific developments. Overall, while we did witness demand improvements during the quarter, realizations though continued to remain fairly steady. Demand improvement was largely owing to pickup in construction activities post-monsoon and festive season. Raw material prices broadly have started to trend lower, which augurs well for the business, especially considering the realizations continue to trend sidewards. Going ahead, demand outlook continues to remain encouraging on the back of government's infrastructure push coupled with the demand from urban housing.
Moving on to Sagar specific developments, our revenue for the quarter stood at INR 576 crore as against INR 334 crore during the corresponding quarter in the previous year, higher by almost 73% on a Y-o-Y basis, largely driven by the volumes following the commission of the new capacities. Average realizations improved marginally on sequential basis. EBITDA for the quarter, though remained fairly steady at INR 40 crore as against INR 47 crore generated during Q3 FY22. Margins for the current period stood at 8% as against 14% reported during the corresponding period last year. While the margins have compressed on Y-o-Y basis, the cooling off in raw material prices over the past few quarters bodes well for the business.
Furthermore, we are hopeful that our investments towards strengthening our operational infrastructure in recent times by setting up the waste heat recovery system, the railway siding, et cetera, should help us improve the margin profile and trajectory during the coming years. Average fuel cost stood at INR 1,866 per ton as against INR 1,452 per ton reported during Q3 FY22. Freight cost for the quarter stood at INR 785 per ton as against INR 751 per ton during Q3 FY22. On a sequential basis though, as mentioned earlier, we have seen a moderation in fuel and freight cost. Loss after profit for the quarter stood at INR 27 crore as against a profit of INR 10 crore reported during Q3 FY22.
From an operational standpoint of view, Mattampally plant operated at 65% capacity utilization, while Gudipadu, Bayyavaram, Jeerabad, and Jajpur operated at 95%, 68%, 57%, and 15% respectively during the quarter. Overall capacity utilization at the group level stood at 60%. As far as the key balance sheet items are concerned, the gross debt as on 31st of December 2022 stood at INR 1,391 crore, out of which INR 1,222 crore is long-term debt. The remaining constitutes the working capital. The net worth of the company on a consolidated basis as on 31st December 2022 stood at INR 1,554 crore. Debt equity ratio stands at 0.79 is to one. Cash and bank balances were INR 313 crore as on 31st December 2022.
In summary, we believe our efforts towards improving our operational efficiencies, product mix, presence across the established and fast-growing markets, along with the scale following the completion of Andhra Cements acquisition, shall position us well to create long-term value for our shareholders. This concludes my opening remarks. Would now be glad to take any questions that you may have. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. A reminder to all participants, you can ask your question by raise of hands in the participant tab of the Zoom platform. We will wait for the question queue.
Sir, Shravan here. Can I go? I'm not able to raise hand.
Yes, please go ahead. Please go ahead, Shravan.
Yeah. sir, first, coming on the pricing part. Have we seen any price increase in this January month? Do you expect some price increase attempt will be there on as now we have a full construction season?
Yeah. Good afternoon, Mr. Shravan. From a price perspective, the attempt was made couple of times over last few quarters, unfortunately the price more or less remained static with a slightly negative bias for last few months. I think so is the case with January. Fortunately in our case, realizations remained reasonably flat because of the overall kind of a product mix. At the marketplace, it looks like the prices more or less remain steady. Unfortunately, with a lot of effort being put did not fructify in any increase on the pricing front. Internally, our belief is that prices probably would remain very similar for this quarter. We think that the prices are likely to start inching up only from the start of Q1 next year, Mr. Shravan.
Yes. Sir, next is, wanted to ask on the volume, but before that, if we get some clarity on the Andhra Cements. I understand though, we haven't received the final approval. Broadly, just trying to understand, let's assume even if, we do not want to disclose the valuation.
Okay.
Broadly, post the acquisition in terms of the net debt, what currently we have, INR 1,100 crore or INR 1,080 crore. How much increase we can see? First, that is part. Second is, when can we start seeing the production and the sales coming from that part? Broadly, let's say, how much in terms of the utilization will it be at par with kind of a 60% for the other plants that we have that we can achieve in one year?
Yeah. Thank you, Shravan. I'm sure you'll appreciate and understand our position in terms of disclosing the details about the acquisition. Let me put it on the gross debt side. Let me speak of the net. I think that is more relevant. From the current position of around INR 1,100 crore gross debt, the likely increase is going to be around another INR 150 odd crores. We think that the net debt should not cross more than INR 1,250 crores on a higher side, post-acquisition of Andhra Cements. Now going back to the, we are expecting the NCLT order anytime soon. If it is likely to happen before the February end, we are hopeful to start during the Q1.
Middle of Q1 for the cement and end of Q1 for the clinker, for restarting the operations of Andhra . And we believe that Andhra should get aligned itself with the other regional players in terms of the capacity utilization somewhere between 55%-60% over next couple of quarters once we restart, Mr. Shravan .
Got it, sir. Now, previously in terms of the volume, in terms of the 5 million tons for the full year that we were looking at. We need now close to 1.54 million tons in the fourth quarter.
We should be very close, sir. Yeah, Mr. Shravan, we should be very close to that number. Likely that we might end up anywhere between INR 4.9 million-INR 4.95 million is what we think. Because now that we are halfway through the this quarter, we can keep our neck out to say that we should be very close to that number, Mr. Shravan.
next year then how we see the Jeerabad and Jajpur in terms of?
See, as indicated earlier, Mr. Shravan. As indicated earlier, the current 5 million, what we have done the projection. Our projection target is to achieve 5.5 million, Mr. Shravan.
Excluding.
This excludes the Andhra Cements volumes. As is varies from the 5 million what we have indicated for the current year target. The next year target also we did indicate in the past, but it is going to be in the range of 5.5 million. We do expect some decent ramp up for both Jeerabad as well as Jajpur units, Mr. Shravan.
Got it, sir. Now coming to the costing part. First, do we still have the same three-month fuel inventory? Broadly, how do we see the fourth quarter in terms of the costing? overall-
There are two aspects, Mr. Shravan. We do believe in our case the inventory has been very healthy. Now we would cross beyond the Q4 of, the current Q4 and halfway through the Q1, we do have inventory. Given the situation and the ramp-up that has happened from stability that we have seen across all the assets, we think likely from the last quarter, that is Q3 to Q4, we do expect around INR 100 kind of cost saving. On two counts. One, the overall fuel cost would come down for us purely because of the mix that we are likely to happen.
At the same time, as indicated from a INR 1.3 odd million, we are likely to achieve around INR 1.4 million-INR 1.45 million. With that, operating leverage also should help us cut the cost. We are expecting around INR 100-INR 125 per ton kind of a saving in the cost.
Got it. Sir, just one data point in terms of the trade share, what was for this quarter, and in terms of the state wise, if you can help us in terms of the volume for this quarter Q3?
Yeah. Mr. Shravan, we would be happy to share it on the sideline because it will be difficult for me to read out each state-wise. We If, if you could email your request, we would be very happy to furnish that. From a trade non-trade mix, sir, we still remain around 60% to be trade and 40% to be the non-trade, sir.
Previously we were looking at in terms of increasing the blending cement to 70% odd. This quarter.
Sir, we did indicate it is not 70%, sir. We would be reaching to around 60%-65%. From 40, 60 as OPC at 60% and blended at 40%. This year we are already at 50/50. The next year target is to move to 55%-60% blended and the remaining OPC. And we are on our way to achieve those numbers, Mr. Sharma. And I'm sure you'll appreciate this is on an increased kind of volume. Like last year at 3.6 million itself, we were at 60/40, but with almost close to 4.9 million, we are almost at 50/50. There has been a sharp increase in the overall kind of blended volumes in absolute numbers.
Thank you, sir, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Anyone who has a question may indicate by raise of hands. Sir, the next question is from Sanjay Nandi. Please go ahead. Sanjay, you may unmute your line and please go ahead.
Yes, fine. Yeah. Good morning, sir. Congrats on the Andhra deal, sir.
Thank you, Sanjay. I think we'll celebrate once we get the NCLT order.
Yeah. Yeah. Sure.
Thank you.
Sir, which bench is it, is it pending in NCLT?
Amaravati bench, sir. It is the Amaravati bench. That is the Andhra Pradesh.
Mm-hmm
bench of NCLT at Vijayawada.
Okay. We were expecting by this ruling to come by end of February, right, sir?
The due date is on 9th as indicated, sir, but, we don't know. The current, due date is on 9th of February.
9th of February. Sir, post that deal, we are expecting our debt, net debt to be INR 1,250 odd crores, right?
Yeah. INR 1,250 is what we have indicated, sir.
On a console basis.
On a console basis, yes.
What kind of invention we have, sir, for this, petcoke, sir, like, from the exit of Q3 and, to the onset of this Q4?
See, we currently are running with almost close to stock levels up to four months, four and a half months, Mr. Sanjay.
Mm-hmm.
...of domestic coal. We do have close to around 35,000 tons of petcoke across all the units that we have.
Sir, can you guide us, regarding that, current scenario of this petcoke pricing, like from the exit of Q3 as we are standing towards the end of, the beginning of the Q4?
We did indicate in our presentation.
Mm-hmm.
...which is on, slide nine.
Okay.
Yeah. Let me just give you. It is at 170 petcoke. The spot prices of imported petcoke is at $170.
Mm-hmm.
What was hovering anywhere between $180-$200 over the last few quarters. Right now it started trending down and the spot prices is at around $170 per ton. The imported coal has come down by almost around $25-$30. RB2, which is a benchmark kind of this thing, what was at $160 for the previous quarters, right now it is at $135. From, as indicated, sir, still imported petcoke on a per kcal basis looks to be slightly more economical than the imported coal as we speak. In our case, anyhow, as we have indicated to you, we are mostly using the domestic coal as well as the domestic petcoke.
Sir, which grade of imported coal do we use, sir?
We don't use imported coal at all.
Okay. The petcoke which we use, we import from which countries?
No, it's all domestic, sir. At this point of time, we are only sourcing it from CPCL as well as the IOCL of Koyali, which is the Baroda IOCL. These are the two sources.
Got it.
...of domestic petcoke that we import.
Got it. Got it, sir. Got it. Thank you so much. That's from my side, sir. I'll come back in the queue, sir.
Thank you.
Wish you all the very best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is follow-up from Shravan Shah. Please go ahead.
Sir, on the finance cost, for the fourth quarter, still we are likely to continue a INR 51 crore kind of a run rate, and other income at the same time, the INR 40 odd crore. How, next, how many quarters can we see the same run rate?
Yeah. Mr. Shravan, as indicated, we are hoping the Andhra Cement transaction to be closed in the current quarter itself. With this current quarter transaction, I think the interest rate would get normalized to I would not say that the total INR 51 crores will go off, but it'll come down a bit because right now, there is a structured debt which is where we are paying slightly higher interest rate.
Okay.
It will get rolled over into a term loan at Andhra Cement. At a console level, the overall interest rate is likely to come down. What I would like to highlight is during the current quarter, the balance sheet would undergo a significant change in our case because the previous investments would get materialized. We are expecting a significant kind of an upside on those investments. With that, we hope that all the losses would get wiped out, Mr. Shravan.
Sorry, sir. Just wanted a further clarity. In terms of the other-.
At this point of time, what I would like to indicate is for the current quarter, the interest cost would remain at 51. It'll come down once the transaction is done because the current high paying around INR 450 crore-INR 500 crore of structured debt we are paying a high, higher interest rate. It would come down because it would become rolled over into term loan. Okay? That's the first part. The second part is, yeah, there is a investments that we have done, which you are aware, it subscribed to certain NCDs in the past. We are expecting the closure of all those investments to happen in the current quarter itself. We definitely are expecting a significant kind of an upside on the NCDs that we have subscribed.
With those things getting materialized, we do expect the past losses to get wiped off in the current quarter, Mr. Shravan. The details of which we will be very happy to share post the conclusion of the transaction.
Does that mean, do we have, can see a exceptional gain in this quarter or other income can see a significant increase in this quarter?
Yeah, at this point of time I can say yes, sir. I think one of those two things will happen. We will be very happy sharing the details, post the conclusion of the transaction, Mr. Shravan.
Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Shyam Sunder Sriram. Please go ahead.
Yeah.
Mr. Sham, I think you have to unmute yourself, sir.
We'll take the next question from Mangesh Bhadang. Please go ahead. Mangesh, you may go ahead.
Hello, sir.
Yes.
Yeah. Hello, sir. Mangesh here. Sir, my question was with regards to the demand in the regions that you operate. If you can just highlight how much growth has you have seen in south and eastern markets in the first nine months, and what is the outlook?
Yeah. I think. Let me talk about the south. AP and Telangana together have grown more than 25% over the last nine months, or over the last year. Karnataka is close to 24%. Tamil Nadu is close to 20%. Kerala is 25%. Maharashtra is flat to positive bias of around 3%. Orissa also is very flat, sir.
Okay. Sir, if you can just highlight how the pricing has moved from the December exit? You mentioned that.
I think it has been flat, sir.
Has there been any increase in the-
Yeah, it has been flat. Though there were certain small price hikes that have happened in between. I think more or less, the average remains that it has been flat for the first one and a half months over the last quarter.
Okay. Just wanted to check if SCCL is having any issues with regards to the supply to the non-power sector. What would be the e-auction premiums there?
Yeah. Mr. Mangesh, it's more a seasonal issue. For the last few months, we did not see any supply related issues for, in our case. Supply has been very healthy. Now the auction is due, so we will only get to know in over probably a week's time as to how the overall e-auction trends are trending, Mr. Mangesh. Yeah, in our case, we have an FSA, so we are not as concerned with the premiums that we need to pay on the e-auctions, Mr. Mangesh.
Okay. Sir, just wanted to have your view on the outlook summit. You mentioned about the growth that we have seen in those regions. What do you expect, sir, in the remainder next year? Any ballpark figure would be helpful.
Mr. Mangesh, I think we are gearing up for the elections, across the some of the states that we operate. Our experience in the past, again, it's only with that experience that we believe, that the markets are going to see a significant kind of increase in the overall kind of a demand outlook. We, we believe, south, what has grown close to 25% over the last nine months, should definitely grow at close to anywhere between 8%-10% over the next two years, is what we strongly think. In anticipation for the election spend which governments do, two years before the the relevant state elections when they are due. Two years before that we've always seen significant increase in the demand.
So far we are positively surprised that it has grown at 25%, but we have penciled close to around 8%-10% for each year for next two years, Mr. Mangesh.
Thank you, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Sir, I'll take the question from Mr. Shyam Sunder's line. His question is on pricing. On pricing, we are seeing some challenges or taking price increases. In case if there are energy costs comes down, will there be any price cut if you would share your outlook on pricing region-wise?
See, I think, from a, price correlating with the cost, historically there has been. What I would like to remind is that over the last 18 months, if you have seen the fuel price, what was 18 months back to now, it is still almost 2x of what it was a year and a half back, to what it is right now. Any drop right now, what we have seen is only close to around 20%, 25%. These drops should not influence the price to drop significantly from where we are. Having said that, it's not just the fuel. The other material costs have also gone up quite significantly, keeping in line with the inflationary kind of trends that we have seen.
All the other blended material or the sourcing of the material or the sourcing of the services have significantly gone up. We don't expect any of them to come down as fast as the fuel. Given that scenario, price should only go up. It should not come down in tandem with the fuel costs, unless fuel cost really goes back and aligns itself with what it was 18 months back. Having said that, if you see some of the markets that we service, the prices that were there close to 18 months back to now, the drop is quite significant. We actually have seen around anywhere between INR 15- INR 20 drop from the peak.
Given that scenario, we believe, and that's our wish list, that it should not come down, the prices should not come down any further than what they are. We have to watch those trends. The price remaining where it is itself is very alarming. I think this year we are already into the early part of the February month, and we are left with only a couple of more months for the current financial year. We don't expect any major changes to happen both upward and downward for the price, and we strongly think that prices should start picking up from the early part of Q1. The only caveat is if price, the fuel costs drop quite significantly.
Yeah, the price may not move, there could be a positive kind of increase in the overall kind of margins. That's what we think, Mr. Shyam.
Thank you, sir. Sir, next question is from Amit Murarka. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, Ashish, Sreekanth. Just a couple of questions. Firstly, on the cost side only. Like the earlier comments in the previous quarters, you had mentioned that you're taking coal from Singareni Collieries, and that contract could get reset at higher prices. Now with fuel prices having dropped, like, do you still see that risk or like we should-?
That's Mr. Amit, we never mentioned that it is with a reset. It's with an FSA. They have not revised the prices so far. We believe that they might remain the way it has always been. We think that Singareni Collieries prices have never been tagged to the imported coal prices. They actually are also independent of CIL prices. We have never seen any correlation with CIL prices on Singareni, and at the same time with imported coal pricing on Singareni . It's very dynamically adjusted. So far they have not indicated nor we are seeing any major changes at least for another quarter from Singareni Collieries on the FSA related coal supply. Yeah, there is an e-auction due.
Those trends should help us try to predict, but it is due over the next 15 days to 20 days from now. Basis that we can take some call. As we speak, they have not indicated of any increase in their coal prices so far, Mr. Amit.
Okay, Ash. In your presentation you mentioned imported coal. Like, is that South African benchmark or which?
Yeah, it's typically RB2 is what we generally indicate, Mr. Amit, because there are too many variants, but RB2 is the most popular one. That's what we have chosen in our presentation.
All right. Right, this recent drop in RB2 that in fact there's quite a sharp drop that has happened in the last one month.
Yeah, it's around $55. What was hovering anywhere between $160, $175 kind of prices have come down to $130. Even at $130, RB2 is relatively higher compared to the imported petcoke, Mr. Amit. I think further coal drop only then it will start pushing the. The current RB2 price is still higher than the imported petcoke on a per kcal basis, on a landed basis for us.
Okay. At least it should benefit the power element of cost where you don't take petcoke, right?
In our case, anyhow, RB2, we don't use it for the power plant. It's still very, very expensive proposition because, yeah, at $135, if I have to start making this coal for generating power, the power cost would be significantly higher to the grid cost, sir. It, it doesn't make sense for us to use RB2 in our power generation either way.
Understood. Okay. Basically this as of now maybe just gives you the cushion that on alternate to petcoke, but it doesn't really directly benefit the cost as of now.
In our case anyhow, we did indicate we have not used any imported coal for our last few quarters. That still remains the stance because that set the higher end of our costs. We are significantly using domestic coal with a combination of domestic petcoke, Mr. Amit.
Okay, understood. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Ankur Bansal. Please go ahead.
Hello sir. Good afternoon. Sir, my question is regarding Andhra Cements that you have already given a resolution to acquire Andhra Cements to NCLT.
Sir, what is, your future plan regarding Andhra Cements? Are you going to delist it, or, are you going to, do a capital reduction, or how it will benefit, the shareholders of Sagar Cements?
Mr. Ankur, as indicated in my opening remarks, we received an LOI, the letter of intent, and we have been declared as the successful bidder by the resolution professional. He did apply to NCLT Amaravati bench. The outcome of that, after the outcome of that only we would be in a position to disclose all the details. At this point of time, the issue is sub judice, I'm not in a position to disclose beyond what I've already shared with you, Mr. Ankur. We would be very happy coming back to you. Once the NCLT order is out, we'll be very happy to disclose every detail associated with the Andhra Cements acquisition.
How we can expect, sir? What is the timeline? We, you said Q1.
Yeah, currently, the NCLT has given ninth as the hearing date. We are hoping it should happen much before the end of February itself, Mr. Ankur.
Thank you, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Parth Bhavsar. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Sir, thank you for the opportunity. Sir, I had just one question, like, where I want to understand the pricing. As we can see that nine months, every one of your pockets where you operate have reported, you know, good volume number or good growth in terms of demand. Also, like, going ahead, we enter Q4, which is usually a strong quarter, right? What is, like, holding, like, cement mills to take any price hike, and why are they not sustaining? Even the costs are very high, like...
I wish I had the right answer Mr. Parth.
Right.
At this point of time, as mentioned, the demand has been reasonably good, or I would say it has been robust.
Yeah.
Unfortunately, at the marketplace, though we have put lot of efforts from our side, yeah, we could not get any price hike. The reasons could be multiple, but we don't have the exact solution of why we could not increase the prices. The margins have always been compressed by more than 50% than what the sustainable margins have been. In spite of that, we were not in a situation to sustain the price hike what we attempted. I wish I had a direct answer.
Right.
I don't have.
Fair enough, sir. Thank you. Thank you for that.
Thank you. The next question is from Sachin Shetty. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Good afternoon. Sir, my question is regarding to that Andhra Cement. We have already given the, this one offer to Andhra Cements, and the capacity is around 2.5 million tons. This plant is idle for last three years, I mean to say. How this plant can be operational in going forward, and how much fresh capital we have to infuse for the Andhra Cement so that we can see the fruitful result for us over?
Mr. Sachin, you have to bear with me as I mentioned again and again. I'm sorry I'm repeating, but I have to repeat. The matter is sub judice. At this point of time, we are not in a position to disclose any details. We would be very happy coming back to you with all the details and all the questions that you have asked. We would be very happy replying post the NCLT order. What I can tell you is you're right, it's a 2.6 million ton installed capacity. It has been not operational for last three years. That's a fact. Our plans going forward pertaining to that and all, we'll be extremely happy disclosing and discussing those issues post NCLT order, Mr. Sachin.
Oh, thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Has there any further scope for expansion of this Andhra Cement?
We will be quite happy-
Sir-
We'll be very happy disclosing those, post NCLT order.
Okay. Okay.
All I can is it's a good asset. We are happy to have them. But the details we would be happy discussing post NCLT order.
Okay, sir. Last word from me. Congratulations for the acquisition. Thank you.
Thank you again. We will take that once the NCLT order is passed.
Thank you. Okay. Okay.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Keshav Lahoti. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. Just want to understand what sort of volume are we looking from Jeerabad and Jajpur plant in this year and next financial year?
Mr. Keshav, we did indicate INR 5 million as the target at a consort level. We were expecting close to around 600,000-650,000 tons from Jeerabad unit. That is the MP one. I think we should end up close to around 550,000-600,000 for that specific unit. We were expecting around 400,000 from Jajpur, we might end up close to around 250,000-300,000 for Jajpur unit for the current. With all of those numbers, we indicated INR 5 million for the current year. We should be very close to that number. Going forward, as indicated, as discussed earlier, we, our target for the next year is INR 5.5 million.
Out of 5.5 million, yeah, we are expecting anywhere between 750,000-800,000 tons from Jeerabad and close to 450,000-500,000 tons from Jajpur unit, Mr. Keshav.
Okay. I got it. What sort of EBITDA pattern they are doing and when it will be EBITDA breakeven? What is the confidence with us?
I think we are very happy that Jeerabad is already above that point. It's only a matter of time at Jajpur. At this point of time, we are operating anywhere between 15%-20% capacity utilization. The reason why we are operating it lower also because of the realizations being lower, so we were not in a hurry to really ramp up that capacity. We do expect the prices in the east surprisingly have been a lot better compared to related to the other regions. Last couple of months have been fairly strong. If the same trends continue, yeah, we do expect by Q1, middle of Q1, for us to start breakevening at even at Jajpur, Mr. Keshav.
Okay. What is the region wide sales breakup for this quarter?
Yeah, we'll be happy sharing it. If you can respond to an email, because it will be time consuming for me to read out each state-wise.
Got it. One last question from my side. It might be repetitive. As you highlighted, you know, the quarter four also, you're not expecting any price hikes. Normally, the trend is, you know, we see good pricing in Feb and March, the busy construction season. Why is your hypothesis of no price hike for this quarter?
Sorry. It's not no price hike. Given the trends, what we have seen, the season actually starts picking up from middle of November. Historically, the price hikes keep happening in a small little way, starting from middle of November all the way up to June, July. Since we could not successfully go for a price hikes during all this time, yeah, we believe that doing it at the start of February and any price hikes from here may not be as sustainable as much as it could be with start of the Q1. We strongly believe that it is likely that the price hikes might start happening from start of Q1 rather than from middle of Q4, Mr. Keshav. This is all our historical experience. We wish we are wrong and price hikes still keeps happening from now.
Historically, it has not happened. That's what the internal thinking is that it, the likely price hikes might happen from Q1 is from those historical facts, Mr. Keshav.
Okay. Got it. Thanks for your detailed response.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Sir, there is a follow-up question from Shyam Sunder. His question is there a technical limit to use lower GCV fuel such as domestic or petcoke or imported coal?
Yeah, I think it is very specific to kiln. In our case, historically, we were using, I would not say very bad quality coal, but a reasonably low-grade coal, anywhere between 3,500- 4,000, with almost 35%-40% ash at 100% in our kiln, sir. We definitely can use that. There is no technical limitation in our case. Again, it's, it depends on the quality of the limestone each one of us would have at each of the asset. In our case, for all our kilns, I don't think there is any limitation in terms of the grade of the coal. Of course, there is a limitation in the lowest grade coal. Yeah, typically, we don't go below 40% ash.
We don't want to use higher than 40% ash, as well as calc value which is less than 3,500. We avoid using it because, yeah, it would have its impact on the end product. So our set point is we don't want to cross 35% ash, and we don't want to use a fuel which is less than 3,500 caloric value coal. So that's what is the limit. Again, same would be the case with the petcoke. Again, the HGI. If it is very hard, it would stress your grinding system. Sulfur sometimes also creates lot of issues. In our case, we have used 100% petcoke to 100% domestic coal, which is of the quality which I mentioned.
The band in our case for utilizing in all the assets is fairly wide. That should be the case with most of the industry. At some places, at some plants have a limitation purely basis the limestone quality or the technical assets that they would have. It's a case to case. It is not something which is across the industry kind of a phenomenon. Hope I could address Mr. Shyam's question, Mr. Manish.
Yes, sir. Yes, sir. That was well taken. Thank you, sir. The next question is from Abhisar Jain. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Sir, on Andhra Cements, you mentioned in your opening comments that the net debt would go up by around INR 150 crore from current level, and also that you can hopefully start from the middle of Q1. Sir, this net debt number that you are indicating, does this include only the acquisition related cost or it includes the startup-
No, sir. It includes the working capital. This includes the working capital requirements even at Andhra Cements.
Also the startup that-
Yes.
Startup costs that you want to do...
Yes.
till Q1, right?
Yes. Yes, sir.
Only the debottlenecking, et cetera, you will figure out once you get the order in your favor.
We will be very happy discussing those details post the order, Mr. Abhisar.
Gotcha.
Not that you don't know, but we would be very happy discussing because the contours of the structure, the resolution plan.
Mm-hmm.
Once the NCLT confirms, we would be very happy discussing each of it in very absolute detail, kind.
Right, sir. Sir, also, on the cost side, you mentioned that, sequentially you are looking at around INR 100-INR 120 per ton of reduction from Q3 to Q4. Given that, you know, the raw material and the fuel costs have been coming down, month-on-month, at least in the last few months, could you also give some ballpark indication because there is a lag effect that how much fall can further happen into Q1?
See, I think we can take this once quarter-on-quarter number, Mr. Abhisar. At this point of time, we are reasonably sure because it's a weighted average kind of a number.
Yeah.
We are very sure of INR 100-INR 125 drop from last quarter to this quarter. Yeah, I think, with the Q4 quarterly results, we would be in a much better shape to address this issue rather than at this point of time.
Yeah. Sir, can you just-No, no, I understand, sir. Sir, I'm just trying to understand that-
Again, the drop in the fuel at this point of time is not lower than our average fuel cost, Mr. Abhisar, because we are not expecting any major drop in the domestic coal.
Mm-hmm.
Not the case with the domestic petcoke significantly.
Right.
Yeah, there has been a significant drop in imported coal which we are not using.
Okay.
It could be flattish to some, this thing, except only the major shift is going to be the ramp-up at the other two assets which are startup should give us...
Right.
That additional push which we'll be very happy discussing that, with the Q4 results.
Understood.
next quarter. The Q1 into the next year, Mr. Abhisar.
Understood, sir. Sir, last question on the CapEx outlook for FY 2024. Without Andhra, what kind of CapEx are you looking for in FY 2024?
We are only planning for the maintenance CapEx, sir. It should not be more than INR 30 crores across the entire group, spread over all the assets, Mr. Abhisar.
Yeah.
Typical maintenance CapEx.
Sure, sir. Sir, since your goal of this going above 10 million ton is already achieved, if Andhra comes in...
Mr. Abhisar, we double every 10 years.
Yeah.
That would indicate to be at INR 10 million by 2025. We are happy that with this acquisition we should be saving a year and half from our targeted kind of a number.
Yeah. Sir, my question is that.
We should double every 10 years, sir. The 10 years could be from when we are concluding this, and 10 years from then we should double, Mr. Abhisar.
No, no. Sir, my question is that since then the CapEx will be limited in FY 2024, would the cash flows be used for deleveraging?
Sir, we always believe that there should be a balance between equity and the debt. At this point of time, we are just about to absorb an asset, sir.
Mm-hmm.
It's too soon for us to take any call on any of that. We have always believed that there should be a balanced portfolio in the equity and the debt structure, and we have never crossed 1:1 on a debt equity ratio. It doesn't mean that we would not like to deleverage, but it would be on a balanced kind of a thing, sir. Most of our debts are structured for a very, very long term, so it may not significantly delever. But we probably might underuse the working capital to that extent, so we would still say have savings on the interest costs pertaining to that structure.
Understood, sir. Thank you so much, sir. Best of luck.
Thank you.
Thank you. Sir, a couple of questions from the chat window. What is the CapEx guidance from FY 2024 and 2025?
Yeah, we at this point of time, excluding Andhra Cements, Manish, the acquisition and this further upgrade, yeah, we do have around INR 30 crores of maintenance CapEx for each year, across all the assets that are operating at this point of time. Same would be the case for FY 24 as well as FY 25.
Okay. The second question is from Chirag Sidhwa. It's on proportion of pet coke in fuel mix has increased from, to 76% from 66%. Any particular reason for the same? How do you see this mix in Q4? The second question is on weighted average kcal stood at 2.1. With the current inventory, what is the kcal expected in Q4?
See, I think, the weighted, the overall kind of a mix that we are looking at is 40% petcoke and 60% domestic coal. From an indicative 2.17, I think we should be more or less be very close to that number. Maybe three-five paisa should come down. We should be close to that number itself, Mr. Manish.
Okay. Got it, sir. Thank you. The next question is from Prateek Kumar. Please go ahead, Prateek.
Yeah. Sreekanth sir, my first question is, would you have any ballpark, like indication of what will be the utilizations of south region, including volumes going to eastern market, for the industry?
Yeah. Mr. Prateek, in the past, it was close to around INR 2.5 million-INR 3 million that was moving from south to east. I think those numbers more or less remain the same. From last quarter to this quarter, we have seen a significant increase in the overall kind of a capacity utilization, which is in line with the 25% growth that we have seen over last year to this year across all the south markets on an average year. That should be the case. What we have to be mindful is there were some new supplies that have come into the market, so that needs to be factored too. There has not been a significant change in the overall kind of an operating rate.
That's what we believe because, significant kind of volumes also have started, getting ramped up from the assets that got, commissioned over last year- to- year and a half period, Mr. Prateek.
It's fair to say it would be operating at like now 70% instead of like for 3Q versus like normally 50%-55%, Q4 rate?
Mr. Prateek, quarter- on- quarter number is always a challenge. If you look at the year, I think there is a small improvement in the overall kind of an operating rate. Quarter to quarter, we have always seen that significance, because from an off-season to season itself, it moves anywhere between 45%-70%. That should not in a big way influence any of the decision making, right? From an off-season to season itself, there is a big variation. If you look at the operating rate anywhere between Q2 and Q3 and compare with either Q1 or Q4, that shift itself is almost quite high. In an off-season, the capacity utilization remains anywhere between 35%-45%. In a peak season, we have seen it moving all the way up to 65%-70%.
The average still remains at 55-60 kind of a number. That's what is likely for the going forward, because there is a significant supply that has happened and that is going to happen over next couple of quarters, especially for the southern markets, Prateek.
You say it's a ramp-up of new capacity, so it would be only of Ramco Cement, right? Or like each other-
Even Chettinad, sir. See, if you look at Chettinad grinding plant in Vizag, got commissioned over last year. I'm sure the current capacity utilization may be lower and it's likely that they might want to ramp up. Would be the case with Ramco. Would be the case with some of those assets which are due for commissioning over the next few quarters, Mr. Prateek.
One thing, for future, like, commissioning. We have, like, probably UltraTech and Dalmia Bharat's commissioning. Any major commissioning do you expect?
Mattampally, sir. Mattampally. We are expecting a Mattampally, commissioning to happen, over the next few quarters. Still likely to happen over the next three quarters, Mr. Prateek. Shree Cement Guntur river asset.
Right. Okay. Sure, sir. These are my questions. Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Prateek.
Thank you. One more question from the chat window. The question is, how are the exit cement prices versus December quarter average? Was it lower or similar?
Flat, sir. I think they were flat with slightly negative bias.
Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir. Anyone who has a question may please indicate by raise of hands. As we have no further questions, sir, we would like to now hand over to you for your closing remarks, sir.
Yeah. Thank you. We would like to once again thank you all for joining the call. I hope you got all the answers you were looking for. Please feel free to connect our team at Sagar or CDR should you need any further information or you have any further queries, and we'll be more than happy to discuss them with you. Thank you again, and have a good day. Thank you, Manish.
Thank you, sir. That concludes the call for today. Thank you, everyone.