Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome you all to the Q2 FY 2023 results conference call of Sagar Cements Limited. We have with us from the management, Mr. Srikanth Reddy, Joint Managing Director, Mr. K. Prasad, CFO, Mr. Rajesh Singh, CMO, and Mr. Thangarajan, the Company Secretary. We will start just today's session with opening remarks from the management, and then will be followed by a Q&A session. I request all the participants to be on mute mode during the course of the call. I would now like to hand over the call to Mr. Gavin Desa of CDR for his opening remarks. Over to you, Gavin.
Thank you, Manish, and thank you for introducing the management. I'd just like to add that some of the statements made in today's discussions may be forward-looking in nature and a note to this effect was shared in the invite that was shared with you earlier. We emailed the communications and thus far you've received them. I'd like to now hand over to Mr. Srikanth Reddy to make his opening remarks.
Okay.
Much appreciated.
Thank you, Gavin. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Sagar Cements' earnings call for the quarter ended 30th of September 2022. Let me begin the discussions with a brief overview of the market in terms of the demand and pricing, after which I will move on to Sagar-specific developments. Overall external environment for the business remained a bit challenging, while Q2 is seasonally a soft quarter given the monsoons. The business had come to operate in an inflationary environment. While the demand momentum was expectedly soft, we did witness some revival towards the end of the quarter, aided by pickup in infrastructure and low-cost affordable housing segments. As far as pricing is concerned, while the same remained relatively steady across our key markets, we could undertake requisite revisions to offset the rising input costs, input prices amidst benign demand.
As far as the trend between trade and non-trade segment is concerned, prices were relatively stable in the former rather than the latter. However, we are witnessing some softening in prices of key raw materials. Whether the trend would continue going forward or we will once again see firming up of input prices, only time will tell. As far as realizations are concerned, we expect the same to improve with the pickup in demand for the coming months and quarters. Moving on to Sagar-specific developments, our revenue for the quarter stood at INR 475 crore as against INR 369 crore during the quarter, higher by almost 39% on a YoY basis, driven largely by volume following commissioning of the new capacity. Average realizations remained largely stable during the quarter. Overall demand, as I mentioned, was relatively softer, largely owing to monsoons.
However, we did witness some pickup towards the end of the quarter. The EBITDA for the quarter stood at INR 6 crores as against INR 61 crores generated during Q2 FY 2022, lower by 91%, largely owing to higher input prices. Margin for the current period stood at 1% as against around 16% reported during the corresponding period last year. Raw material prices were fairly stubborn during Q2, which resulted in margin compression of almost 1,500 basis points. We have seen an unprecedented surge in prices of key raw materials which were aggravated following the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Although the prices of few raw materials have started to trend lower, one needs to see if the moderation continues in coming months.
Average fuel costs stood at INR 2,066 per ton as against INR 1,263 per ton reported during Q2 FY 2022. Elevated prices of coal and coke resulted in higher per ton cost of fuel for the quarter. Freight costs for the quarter stood at INR 797 per ton as against INR 795 per ton during Q2 FY 2022. Loss after tax for the quarter stood at INR 49 crore as against a profit of INR 20 crore reported during Q2 FY 2022. From an operational point of view, Mattapalli plant operated at 50% utilization, while Gudipadu and Bayyavaram, Jeerabad and Jajpur operated at 93%, 64%, 30% and 10% respectively during the quarter. Overall capacity utilization at a group level stood at around 49%.
As far as the key balance sheet items are concerned, the gross debt as on 30th September 2022 stood at INR 1,486 crore, out of which INR 1,275 crore is long-term debt. The remaining constitutes the working capital. The net worth of the company on a consolidated basis on 30th September 2022 stood at INR 1,581 crore. Net equity ratio stands at 0.81:1. Cash and bank balances were at INR 308 crore as on 30th September 2022. To conclude, I would just like to reiterate that rising raw material prices may pose near-term challenges with regards to profitability. In the long run, though we believe the anomaly will correct with pickup in demand and improvement in realization.
As far as Sagar is concerned, we believe our diversified presence, higher scale, better product mix and strong balance sheet position help to create a value for our shareholders over the long term. That concludes my opening remarks. We would now be glad to take any questions that you may have. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. We will now begin the Q&A session. A reminder to all participants, you can ask your question by raise of hands in the participant tab of the Zoom platform. We will wait for a moment for the question queue.
The first question is from Shravan Shah. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir. Sir, the first question is just to confirming the guidance. Five million volume guidance that we gave, and that was 3.5-3.6 million from the existing and the remaining from the new plants. If I look at till now, our own old plant is giving a better return. Will we maintain the same 5 million ton volume guidance? And in terms of the share from the new plants for the MP and Odisha plant, can we think this will be lower?
Good morning, Shravan. See, now talking about the overall target, I think we achieved 2.2 million for this half. So 5 million for the overall year, probably it is too soon for us to roll out. It looks high probability. Having said that, we are maintaining the same stance for Satguru plant, that is the MP plant, at close to 0.6 million. Jeerabad looks to be difficult. We have indicated around 0.4 million. Probably we should be doing close to around 0.25 million. Having said that, the other assets did perform reasonably well. We would want to take the corrective steps or know exactly what we would do end of this current quarter, that is the end of Q3, we will be in a better position.
First, we expect that we would not go below 4.75 million at this point of time, Shravan. The bigger challenge is on the EBITDA. The bigger challenge is more on EBITDA. Yeah, it looks like the possibility of close to INR 400-odd crore that we have indicated at the start of the year could still be a challenge. The numbers we would probably revise downward. By how much, we would probably take some more time before we could guide it, but we definitely expect the EBITDA generation to be lot lower than what we have indicated. On a volume front, as I mentioned, I think we should be very close to 5 million.
I think end of the current quarter we will be in a much better situation to narrate the numbers that are likely to happen in the current financial year.
Yeah, I was about to come on the EBITDA part. In terms of particularly, as you mentioned, I think it is difficult. Guidance can be revised downward, but still in terms of the power and fuel, the increase, since we are significantly higher cost indicate, now we have spent much. Now how would we see this increase?
No, Shravan, now let me reiterate what we have indicated at that point of time. The drop in fuel prices are expected middle of this current quarter. We are more than hopeful that we should definitely save around INR 250 per ton on the power and fuel alone for the current quarter. Because the mix what we have indicated earlier is the domestic coal and pet coke was 50-50. Now we started firing at 60-40, so we are more than hopeful. We do have the domestic coal pipeline with lot more clarity. We are very sure that we would be saving around INR 250 per ton only on the fuel for the current quarter itself.
Yeah, this will further increase the gross profit in terms of those region.
See, I think let us take one quarter at a time because as I mentioned even in my opening remarks, though some of the petcoke prices have been, they trended down for a very brief while. Again, they are trending upward. At this point of time, our inventory for the fuel is for the current quarter. We know with a lot more clarity about what we can do for the current quarter. We are very sure that we would be achieving around INR 250 per ton on power and fuel. I think for the current quarter it's INR 250. Minimum saving is possible for the current quarter alone.
Next quarter, I think, we will take it as we come close to those.
Yeah. Just to reconfirm in terms of the net debt. INR 83 odd crore, that would be the operational net debt, that balance will maintain and-
Yes, sir. I think on the balance sheet items, I think, the narration remains very similar to what we have maintained even in the past.
Sir, any update on the Andhra Cements NCLT because that has been delayed, mostly?
I think we have maintained. See, we did mention that it is end of Q3. I think we are hopeful that it should get resolved before the end of Q3, sir. We are maintaining the same time frame.
Sir, second point, what was the trade share for this quarter? In terms of the post-September, have we seen any price increase in any of our markets?
Yeah. The trade sale got reduced for the current quarter. Obviously because of the monsoon, there was a bit more non-trade sale. We are maintaining around 55-57% is the trade, and the rest constitutes the non-trade. Going forward, we'll revert back to 65-35 kind of a trade non-trade mix. Now coming to the realizations, there has been good uptake again on a relative scale across the markets that we service. Hyderabad market alone, we have seen almost INR 18-INR 20 kind of a jump per bag. Vizag is around INR 15. Bangalore is INR 25. We have not seen major shift in North Karnataka markets. North Tamil Nadu and South Tamil Nadu is around INR 25. Maharashtra market, we have seen INR 20 kind of an increase per ton.
Odisha we have seen close to INR 10. Indore, we are yet to see any major shift in our realizations.
Okay. This is from the September exit?
Yes, sir. It is the exit of September to the first 15 days of October.
Oh, cool. That's it from my side. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Anyone who has a question may please indicate by raise of hands.
Yeah, Manish, I think there is a question in the chat, which, if you could.
Yes.
Take it.
Yes, sir. The question is from Rituparna Ghosh. Can you please elaborate your fuel mix going ahead? Are you exploring Russian coal? If so, how is it affecting in terms of production? And kindly give your views on thermal versus petcoke usage.
Yeah. See, I mentioned we are primarily using the domestic coal along with the domestic petcoke. Of course, we did receive an imported petcoke shipment recently. But as you have noticed, probably what you are seeing is that the imported petcoke prices slowly started going upward. Last shipment that we received close to around a month back or close to 20 days back, the landed cost was around $169. Now we are seeing the spot prices and the one month November deliveries are already at 195. We are again going back to the domestic petcoke. The mix, as indicated, will be 60% domestic coal and a 40% petcoke. We are not using any Russian coal.
We're basically sticking to the domestic coal along with the domestic petcoke at this point of time. We did indicate even in our presentation the prices, typically the landed prices at Mundra, though that's not our cost. The indicative spot prices which we have estimated as part of our presentation. There we did indicate the imported petcoke prices per kcal to the domestic and imported. We have indicated that imported petcoke is at INR 2.53 per kcal on a landed basis. Indian petcoke is at INR 2.20. Imported coal is at INR 3.37. Domestic is at INR 1.82 on a landed basis at Mundra.
I mean, these are more indicative prices just to sum up some of the questions that we have had.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from Arun Narendranath. Apart from Andhra Cements, are you targeting any other inorganic acquisition?
It is too soon for me to comment. Yes, we did identify a couple of assets, but we would want to take one piece at a time. Currently, we are more focused on Andhra. Yeah, the outcome of that will decide the other options that we have. The target is to reach 10 million. Based on the progress of Andhra, we would want to pursue the other options that we have. Yes, we do have at least another asset in our radar. The outcome of Andhra would decide how we would progress on the other one. There was also another question from the same gentleman on the PIL. I think there is no PIL.
It is Dalmia who has given the thing, and there is no stay on the process. There is a stay on voting. That I think is for the state. The outcome of that would be known only end of this month. For that, I cannot comment anything beyond that. We are more than hopeful that at an NCLT, the Andhra transaction should get concluded, or there is a possibility that it should get concluded before end of Q3 is what is the impression that we have.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from Abhisar Jain. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, just continuing from your comments on the realization part, as you mentioned that you're seeing some uptake in some of the markets. As things stand today, sir, what kind of realization per ton improvement do you expect on a quarter-on-quarter basis for Q3?
See, we just know the last 15 days trend, Abhisar. I did read out the indicative gross prices at the retail level.
Right.
If you knock off close to around 30-odd% of that should get added up again on a weighted basis, but it's too soon for us to comment on that. Fortunately, except for Indore, where it remained flat, and we are hoping the realizations to move even there. The realizations have been in range of anywhere between INR 15-INR 20 on an average per bag. So INR 200-INR 250 per ton can be expected if it remains in a similar kind of a thing, but this is not enough. Yeah, a lot more has to happen. The last 15 days trend is that it is around INR 15-INR 20 on an average per bag increase in realization is what we have observed.
Right, sir. Okay, understand. Sir, on the cost side, while you mentioned that, the savings on the power and fuel, what you're expecting on a sequential basis, for the other cost line items, including freight and RM, do you expect to drive any savings for H2 versus H1?
See, Mr. Abhisar Jain, raw material again is a question of blending. Per se, it did not increase our cost, but since the blending, blended cement portfolio went up, which is a good sign for us, that much increase in raw material is seen. The offsetting price reduction, power and fuel cost reduction also is likely to happen going forward. Freight, as we have indicated in our own presentation, yeah, we are slowly coming down. With the more volumes ramping up both at Jajpur and Jeerabad, likely that the freight cost should come down, well for us. By how much, only time will tell. Definitely they would be trending down for us.
Yeah. Sir, actually, I just wanted a little bit understanding that where should the freight stabilize when we really reach that, you know, 5 million, and then for the next year, 5.5 million kind of ton rate. Because you have had new plants which will ramp up, okay? And I think now you must be seeing some trend of fuel prices stabilizing, which impact the freight cost. If any indication and versus today's level of around INR 800 per ton, where do you want to see it?
See, right now we are at INR 797, sir. I mean.
Yeah.
We don't know if diesel prices would stabilize. The current trend, what we are looking at, it remained at 797. There was a small increase. That's purely because of small increase in the diesel price. Once both the assets ramp up, we are reasonably sure from earlier 300 we have indicated that we will be going close to around 280. I think that is where we might land up. How much potential saving we would have, again, diesel remains where it is. Probably we should expect around INR 50-INR 60 per ton kind of a saving. That is very subjective. It again depends on the route maps and the tollages and all.
The indicative number is close to around INR 50 saving should be expected once all the new capacity get ramped up, reach full shape.
Sure. Sir, just the last thing on the Andhra asset and the overall debt number that we have of around INR 1,170 crores. Just wanted to get a right sense on exactly how much of that is earmarked for the Andhra asset and maybe deployed by us.
Yeah. INR 500 crore is what we have earmarked for acquisition, sir. That is what you need to exclude from the overall kind of a long-term debt that we have.
Right. Sir, you have indicated in the past that if at all in an unforeseen scenario of this asset not coming to you by, because of any whatsoever reason, I'm not going into, you know, the litigating matter and Dalmia coming into the picture, et cetera. For any reason whatsoever, if it doesn't come through and you're saying it will get decided within this quarter, and what's the equity upside on this INR 500 crores that you may have?
Sir, I cannot comment anything on those issues. There is always a possibility that the asset could go to any one of us.
Mm-hmm.
How much, what and all, only time will tell, sir. It is too soon for us to comment on that. We'll be very happy coming back to you as soon as we reach to a point where we could disclose those numbers.
Okay. Sir, only one clarification. If it were to go into a bidding sort of a thing, are you open to participate?
Sir, it is in that process only, sir. It is not before. It is actually into that process, sir.
Okay. Now you have the option to, of course, increase your bid or walk away. Is it?
Well, it is. The process is ongoing, sir. Nothing is concluded as we speak. The issue of upping or down, whether they like, we are still part of the process. The process is yet to conclude, Mr. Abhisar Jain.
Sure, sir. Understood. Thank you. Thank you so much, sir, for answering.
Thank you. The next question is from Shravan Shah. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir. A couple of things, sir. First in terms of the finance cost, so definitely this is increasing because of the INR 500 crore debt that we have taken from Andhra. For the third quarter also it is the same run rate and, for the fourth quarter actually, materialization.
It's a subjective issue. See, we have earmarked INR 500 crores for the acquisition, sir. Yeah, if it materializes, that bit of portion would get reduced. The reversal would happen. That's what I would like to highlight, Mr. Shravan Shah.
at least for short term, or at least, 1.5 month, 2 months of the finance cost.
Yes, sir. I think it's a subjective issue, as I mentioned, for the outcome of the event. Yeah, it is based on that outcome. We are hopeful that we should conclude this by end of Q3 if that happens. Yeah, I think the interest and the debt structure would get transformed accordingly.
Okay. Got it. Sir, CapEx for the first half is INR 63 odd crore, I can see from the cash flow. We were looking at only INR 30 odd crore. What's the new number for the full year CapEx, anything?
No, I think we have indicated the same, sir. It is because partly rollover of both the assets, that's what got indicated here. We are sticking to INR 30 crore for our maintenance CapEx. Yeah.
In the cash flow, though it is INR 63 odd crore on the front page.
Majorly it is because of the rollover that has happened from last year, sir. When we have commissioned, not everything has been capitalized. Those capitalizations have happened even in the last quarter or the first half. That is that. Maintenance CapEx, you know, not, definitely not cross more than INR 30 crore.
Okay. The third clarification needed in terms of the petcoke, what are the futures we are having? So $165-$166. In that, 70-odd% would be the domestic one. Is it the one to look at?
Yeah. Yes, Mr. Shravan Shah. See, we definitely got one shipload of 50,000 just 15 days to 20 days back. The landed cost is at around $169. That includes the hedging cost and everything. For that, rest everything is domestic petcoke. Now if you look at Jeerabad, that is in Madhya Pradesh, the entire thing is domestic. It is coming from IOCL Koyali, that is in Baroda plant.
Okay. Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Parth. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Sir, thank you for the opportunity. I just had one question. Like, I wanted to know, like, what is the optionality at each of our five plants that we have, like, from there on, from current capacity, is there any room for, you know, increase, to increase our capacity?
Yeah, Mr. Parth. See, each of our assets, again, Mattapalli and Gudipadu has ample scope for, Mattapalli has huge scope. We have fairly large limestone resources. Gudipadu we could comfortably triple. Satguru, there is scope for small increase, at least to the extent of half million on the cement side. Clinker, we are uncomfortable if it is less than 30 years or 50 years of deposit life. Clinker scope is very limited at Satguru. Between Mattapalli as well as in Gudipadu, as I mentioned, Gudipadu, you know, from a million we could comfortably go up to close to four million. In Mattapalli, scope is huge.
We have taken a conscious call that we would only do it after some time, because given the South, adding a brownfield or a greenfield in South not only would put pressure on us, but also on the market. That is the conscious decision that we have.
Okay.
Not to look at those options at this point of time.
Hello? Hello?
Parth, please. Yeah, go on.
Yeah. Basically, we would want to add at Gudipadu, like, rather than Mattapalli.
If at all we have to add, the first priority would be at Gudipadu itself.
Gudipadu. Okay. Fair enough. Sir, just like wanted to understand, what would be the brownfield CapEx cost at current count?
Sir, it is very difficult to address that. It could be anywhere between $80-$100 at this point of time. Because the steel prices are at an elevated kind of a level. So is the services cost.
Okay. Sir, just like, to quantify a number at Mattapalli would be how much, like optionality?
Actually, it's huge, sir.
Basically, the land and everything is, like, everything is got.
Yes, sir. Yes, sir.
Limestone availability is there.
Yes, sir.
Like just to give a number, like if possible.
Sir, I think, see, we have indicated close to around 420-odd million tons of limestone is there, which is readily available. With a potential increase it could go up to 800 million. 800 million limestone you can see.
Yes.
to what extent we could go, so.
Fair enough. Done, sir. Thank you so much. That's it from my side.
Thank you. Sir, couple of questions on the truck window. What is your lead distance for the quarter? Rail-road mix, and what is the demand potential from Telangana and Andhra Pradesh? What is the fuel inventory?
Now I think we did disclose in our presentation reasonably in a detailed fashion about the railroad mix and the lead distance. Let me read out since it is asked. Currently lead distance for Q2 is at 271 km. Railroad mix yeah we did indicate the Jaipur movement is mostly by rail in terms of the outward. For that except for the clinker movement we have not done any rail movement on the outwards freight. Only the I mean the inward which is primarily to do with the clinker and all is going only by rail both to Jaipur as well as 30% of it to Bayyavaram went by rail. Coal inward of course from Singrauli mostly it is by rail.
That sums up. Now looking at our own volumes in terms of for each of the states, sir, we did close to 1.04 million. Out of that, close to 50-odd% is for AP and Telangana. We did close to 16% into Tamil Nadu, 9% into Karnataka, 6% into Maharashtra, 7% each for Odisha and Madhya Pradesh. There is 1% to all the other remaining states where we would have supplied in past year, sir.
Sir, one more question. What is the fuel inventory that you're carrying now?
Yeah, the fuel inventory we are running at for the full quarter we have the inventory, sir. This includes both domestic as well as imported and domestic petcoke. We are running with one quarter.
Okay, perfect. Next question is from Viraj Kulkarni. Our Indian coal mix was 30% for this quarter. Despite this, the power and fuel cost was in excess of INR 2,000 per ton, which seems to be quite high compared to the others who have reported. How-
Sir, I cannot compare with the others. In our case, the power and fuel cost got elevated purely because the CPP, which consumed coal, where we had to go for expensive coal. We have taken a conscious decision to switch off the CPP and go back to the grid, because it was costing close to around INR 12 per unit. That also has increased the overall kind of a power and fuel cost. We hope that the trend lines would put us in a better stage in terms of the coal availability as well as the pricing. That is not the case, sir. That probably has pushed us to be slightly higher compared to some of the peers. Also, we have to look at the blending ratio.
Though we did slightly higher, but still we are close to 50-50. I think the minute we get aligned, which is not very far, that once we get aligned with most of our peers in terms of same blended cement ratios as you, our power and fuel costs also will be looking at a lot lower than the others, sir. In our case, it definitely impacted power and fuel costs for the last quarter, did impact the overall kind of the coal usage and the availability did impact the overall kind of a cost. We have made those decisions now, and we are more than hopeful that the current quarter results, we are expecting an INR 250 saving on account of power and fuel costs.
Okay. Got it, sir. Sir, the next question is from Rashid Shah. Sir, can you please give us a volume breakup between the existing and the new units?
Yeah, we will be sharing that, sir. We did for the quarter. We did close to around quarter half year we know for sure. We did close to quarter million between both the units, sir. Around 70-odd thousand tons from Jajpur, and 190,000 tons from Madhya Pradesh for the subsidiary. The Madhya Pradesh unit for [Chuku] is 77,000, and for Jajpur is-
35,000.
35,000 tons from Odisha unit.
Okay. Thank you, sir. The next question is from Rajat Sethia. What is the CapEx left to be done and by when this will be complete? How much capacity expansion will happen because of that? And also, what is the capacity that we are looking to add from Andhra Cements?
Yeah. The CapEx as indicated, sir. For both the assets it is completely done, that more or less concludes the CapEx spend on the assets that we have at both Odisha and Madhya Pradesh. The only small operational CapEx that we are doing is around INR 30-odd crores. I think we did close to INR 10-odd crores. Another INR 20 crores probably would add up in the next six months on this account. As there is a large shed that is under implementation at Mattapalli. That is what we are looking at in this point in time. Now, from a diligence perspective about what we have looked at under cement, it's a 2.6 million ton.
That's what we are hoping to get added up as soon as it gets certified in our favor.
Got it, sir. Thank you. Anyone who has a question may please indicate by raising a hand or on the chat window. Put it on the chat window. In the meanwhile, I have a couple of questions. Last time you had mentioned about Singrauli coal that there were some certain issues on supply. Have they been sorted now? And
Yes. They've been more or less sorted. Though the rains are still troubling a bit, but from a connectivity perspective, we did receive good volumes in the last month. We are hoping most of the FSA, Singrauli to start fulfilling the entire FSA obligations from their end going forward. Yeah.
Sir, your view on the new capacities that are getting added, plus the M&A activity that is happening in the central region, per se. Do you think that over a period of next 1-2 years, you might see a lot of CapEx there with also, you know, older plants getting revived and things like that might add pressure to the central region?
Yeah. Manish, I think the central region, more so UP, because that's where the action is in terms of. We are expecting a huge demand to pick up in UP. Fortunately, the demand looks to be far higher compared to the potential supply that is likely to happen. See, a lot of people assume that the JT is not working, but the fact is that JT is working probably at a lesser volume. The incremental volume that is expected from ramping up of that, it probably should get absorbed in no time, because the demand looks to be in a very, very high scenario. Of course, Amethi and JK's plants, both are likely to happen probably in the coming year.
By the time these assets come up, we believe that demand should be in a good situation to absorb whatever is adding up. Usually the supply and demand equation in Central was always favoring more demand and less supply. Probably the gap would get narrowed down when all these things get commissioned. From the way the UP demand is shaping up, we think that the old trends might probably continue even with the new supply. Things look to be more promising than ever before here, Manish, for the Central region.
Got it. Sir, any particular segment that is driving demand there? I mean
I think it is government spending on infrastructure side.
Okay. Got it. That's it from my side. Next question is from Shravan. Please go ahead, Shravan.
Just wanted to understand, are you hearing or have you witnessed in terms of the discount structure being slightly modified by the large players or some of the competition happening in your region?
Mr. Shravan Shah, I think it's an ongoing affair. People keep changing the names of those discounts. The reality is that some amount of, you know, the RD, PD or whatever people would call. Some amount of rationalization I would put it. A lot of knocking out has happened on those fronts. It's not just now. It was the case for last couple of quarters now. We are seeing some reductions on those RDs and PDs in our region too.
That's it, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Anyone who has a question may please indicate by raise of hands or put it on the chat platform. The next question is from Debarpan Sinha. Under the Gati Shakti master plan of the government of India is launching the unified logistics interface platform, which promises to reduce the overall logistics cost by 10%-12%. What is the impact on Sagar Cements' freight cost and cement industry as a whole?
Sir, I think it's a great platform and a great policy document. It's from the overall kind of a logistics. What kind of impact it will have on cement? I think it is very limited, sir. In our own case, we are not expecting that to save in a big way, because it's a multi-modal. The problem is not with the freight alone, but the problem is with the handling cost. In a multi-modal scheme, typically, if you have more number of handlings, it may not come to our rescue. We would rather. See, we have been looking at it. I would not say that we have updated completely, but we would want to take some more time before we could make a conclusive kind of a remark.
From the brief overview that we have had and some discussions we were having with the experts in that particular segment, in our sector, the bigger challenges are the handling types. On that front, we are not expecting a major saving for our sector. I cannot speak about the industry. There are some things that we have seen with the cargo, you know, the bunker transport, container transport with the rake and all. We do think that there is some saving, but we have not really done calculation for ourselves because that may not be a fit case for us.
At the industry level, we do believe, like Bharti just launched one of its kind of a model basis that, I'm sure if they have launched, my assumption is that it definitely has some advantages. That's the reason why they have launched. In our own case, we do not have assets which would add value from that perspective at this point of time. From our side, it has, I don't think we have, it adds value to us at this point of time. That's what we would like to comment on that.
Thank you, sir. Thank you. Sir, the next question is from Nikhil. What is the outlook on demand, especially in the south region?
The outlook on demand, typically, again, I have to go back to the history. Two years before the election, it peaks. We are just getting into that second year from next year onwards. We do believe that we are in good time as far as demand is concerned. Even but for the rain for the current year, sir, most of the states have actually performed 20% higher than last year. We do think that by next half, next year's first half, we should be crossing pre-COVID kind of levels for demand in most of the southern states.
Okay. Thank you, sir. Sir, the next question is a follow-up from Rajat Sethia. For Andhra Cements acquisition, how are we looking to finance that, and if it was to come to us?
Sir, I think we did raise equity as well as a debt. I think that should more or less help us with internal accruals acquire the assets, sir. We are reasonably fully funded for a potential acquisition. Most of them, in Andhra perspective, I think we are fully funded from that perspective. We took a INR 500-odd crore of structured debt. We also raised a INR 350 crore of equity from Premji Invest. We do have some internal accruals. I think these three should help us acquire the assets.
Okay. Sir, does that mean that the current debt levels should be the peak level?
Yes, sir. More or less. Yeah, more or less the debt levels are fixed, sir, because yeah, there is INR 500-odd crore of debt which is more for an acquisition that we have borrowed. That should help us get the target.
Got it. Got it, sir. The next question is from Sagar Purwal with Anand Rathi.
Hello, sir. Like, as you mentioned, demand outlook in South India. Basically, I had a follow-up question regarding that. Like, as we have seen in the last decade, demand in South has been stagnant and not has increased on an overall economy level. Just wanted to know, like, with the capacity realization that Sagar currently has of 49% overall in India. Basically, the current consolidations that are happening, how does Sagar aim to? Like, what actions or what has it thought to maintain or to increase those utilizations amid this stagnant demand in South India?
I think what you are looking at 49% is very specific to the last quarter, Sagar. The reality is you'd be operating anywhere between 55%-65%. Let me take one year forward, not go beyond that. We do expect more or less capacity utilizations to remain where they have been for last few years. We are not expecting a major shift in that, purely because there is an incremental demand. See, contrary to what most of the people think, South did grow, sir. It's not that it remains stagnant. Supply also has caught up with it.
Given the supply position at this point of time, or at least next year, we do believe that the capacity utilization more or less will be very similar to how it has been for last few years. Beyond that, we do expect an incremental kind of a demand. Unless some unusual supply comes into the market. There is a likelihood there could be a small surge or increase in the capacity utilization. I think 80% capacity utilization is 100%, near 100% in south at any given point of time. Just to reiterate, sir, in FY 2011-12, the demand in south was 65 million. Pre-COVID, that is FY 2019, the demand reached to 81 million. It's not that it remains static, it grew. So is the supply.
That's one of the reason why the capacity utilization more or less remained static. Not that demand was bad, but supply was more than the demand that got added up. We do believe that next two years, we should go back to the peak number that we have witnessed at around 81 million. Probably, if not this year, at least by halfway through next year, we should start seeing those numbers is what we think. That was the trend. Looking at the historical patterns, yeah, a year, two years before the election, the demand starts picking up quite sharply. That's what we are expecting even this time around.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Arun. Does the upcoming Delhi-Mumbai Expressway near Indore help Satguru plan to supply cement at the lower cost for catchment area?
For sure, sir, but I think our footprint area has Indore and Baroda and Ahmedabad are also not far, sir. It'll definitely help. We don't see challenge with the demand in those regions. It's a question of realization. We are not seeing any issues with the demand for our asset, because it's just a greenfield plant. The captive markets are reasonably strong there. This will definitely add up. Will it make a difference? Yes. To what extent is the question to ask, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from Rajat . Do we have any targets for rail dispatch mix, lead distance, blended cement mix for the next two to three years?
Yeah. We do not have a target for the rail dispatch mix, but we do definitely have a target for the lead distance as indicated. We are targeting at 275 km for us to achieve that number. Fortunately, the current assets with even the road mix should help us reach that number. From a blending perspective, sir, we were always sub 40 all these years. Yeah, we are looking at a 70-30 kind of a mix, where 70% would be the blended over next couple of years. 70% will be the blended cement and 30% will be the OPC. The reason why we believe that OPC will still be there is because some of the large institutional buyers would still prefer an OPC for them to do the blending.
That's one of the reason why we are not ruling out completely the OPC. Our internal target is to achieve 70% blended with a 30% OPC mix. Rail dispatch again is subject to the markets that we service and the overall kind of a logistics cost that it is likely to face. We go with the overall kind of a cost, not fixated on the rail dispatch. Most of the markets that we are servicing and the assets that we have, I think rail is not a big option for us, sir. Road typically has given us the best kind of a freight rates into the market. That's one of the reason why we are one of the lowest cost freight operators in India for this kind.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from Jasdeep Singh Chadha. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. I just wanted to ask and understand, what sort of limestone reserves are we getting? Also on the basis of the land package that we are getting in limestone reserve, what sort of brownfield optionality do you see in Andhra Cements? Thank you, sir.
Chadha, we are yet to get it, so we are one of the other person who has bid for it. Andhra Cements, as indicated, has close to around 165 odd million tons of limestone, sir.
Okay. Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Rajan Shah. What is the market share of bagged cement in India?
Yeah, I think I would request Manish to address that question rather than myself or my friends who are strong analysts who look at all India as a market. Our assumption is that we are 5 million on a 425 million supply, sir. Is it supply driven or a demand driven? I have never understood. Yeah, we would be close to 5 million. We with close to around 0.9%-1% kind of overall kind of a demand in the market.
Thank you. Sir, the next question is from Ramkrishna. With the improving road infrastructure across the country, have you seen consistent efficiencies coming into play in terms of overall logistics cost?
Yeah, I think the issue there is efficiency itself. That's turnaround times have come down quite heavily. That obviously indirectly helps us to reduce the overall kind of freight cost. What one has to keep in mind is most of this infrastructure is happening with toll roads, sir. There is a net negative effect on overall kind of cost even on that, sir. Turnaround time definitely has come down, sir. Earlier, when I started my career, it used to take close to around 15 hours from our plant to Hyderabad, which is 1,200 km away. Today, it takes less than five hours to reach. There is a huge kind of carrying capacity definitely has gone up. From what was sub 20, 25, today people are talking of near 50-60 ton carrying capacity.
These things would definitely add up. Unfortunately, on a shorter term, the infrastructure built up also is happening with the toll gates. That more or less is negating the overall kind of stuff. This could be a short term, but medium to long term, we definitely think it will help quite a bit.
Okay, thank you. The next question is from Vincent Andrews. How much would be the cash outflow for Andhra Cements towards acquisition and subsequent CapEx on that?
Sir, it is too soon, so we are in the bidding process. We will be very happy as soon as it reaches to some point, we'll be happy discussing that. At this point of time, it's in the bidding process. It's too soon for us to comment on that.
Thank you. Anyone who has a question may please put it on the Zoom platform or raise your hand. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand over the call to you for your closing comments, please.
Thank you. We would like to once again thank you for joining on the call. I hope you have all the answers you were looking for. Please feel free to contact our team at Sagar or CDR should you need any further information or you have any further queries. We'll be more than happy to discuss them with you. Thank you, and have a good day. Thank you, Manish. Thank you, sir. Have a good day.
Thank you. That concludes the call for today. Thank you, everyone.