Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Gabriel India Ltd Q4 and FY 2024 earnings conference call. This conference call may contain forward-looking statements about the company, which are based on the beliefs, opinions, and expectations of the company as on date of this call. These statements are not the guarantee of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. As a reminder, all participants' line will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Manoj Kolhatkar, Managing Director of Gabriel India Ltd. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good morning, everybody, and a very warm welcome to the call. In fact, this call is for the year that we ended, I must say, quite well, year 2023, 2024. Joining me today on call is Rishi Luharuka, our CFO, Nilesh Jain, and our strategic and our investor relation advisor of S GA. So you must have seen the results that we uploaded yesterday, post our board meeting on the stock exchanges as well as the company website, and hope each one of you has had the chance to go through the same.
I'll give a brief overview of the company's operations and take you through the presentations, presentation briefly, and also share, you know, our views on the market, which, for the last year, as well as what we see for the year going ahead, as far as the industry is concerned. To start with, I'm pleased to announce that the board recommended a final dividend of INR 2.5 per share, so taking the total to INR 4 per share, which is a payout of almost 31%. Coming to our presentation, if you go to slide 6 and 7, which basically, you know, highlights the quarter and the yearly performance, we can see that we had a strong quarter. Our operating revenue for Q4 surged 16.5% to INR 859 crores.
And this growth, of course, you know, extended to FY 2024, and FY 2024 for the full year was 12.5% growth, and we posted INR 3,343 crore as the sale, which is, of course, the highest ever for Gabriel India Ltd.'s history. The good part is, in Q4, we reached the EBITDA margins of 9%, compared to 7.1% in the similar comparable quarter last year, which is thanks to, you know, our continuous focus on the margin improvement, which we have shared all along in the calls, our initiative of Core 90 to drive, you know, cost control relentlessly all through the year, across all our locations and, you know, in fact, departments as well. Let me get down to the industry dynamics. Starting with passenger cars.
On Q4 in Q4, FY 2024, sales of passenger cars reached 1.3 million units, marking a year-over-year growth of about 9%. For the full year, FY 2024, we hit a sale figure of almost 4.8 million units, which is the highest ever for the industry. In fact, if you add exports, the production figures are even higher. The significant growth in passenger cars can be attributed to various factors, such as improved rural demand, favorable model mix, introduction of many new models, enhanced supply dynamics, meaning, you know, we came out of the supply constraints, which we have been seeing post-COVID for almost more than two years, better road infrastructure and a strong demand in the SUV segment.
Specifically, the total PV sales during Q4, FY 2024, amounted to almost 1.3 million units, showing an increase of 9.4% compared to the previous year of 1.2 million units. The SUVs now account for more than 50% of the total PV sales in Q4, and this will be the trend going forward, where we will see, you know, SUVs may reach even to the levels of almost 60% as their share of passenger car vehicles. Looking ahead to FY 2025, which is 2024-2025, the passenger vehicle segment is expected to grow at a single digit rate in the range of, well, the figures vary, but as of now, the industry opinion is that they should be in the range of 6%-7%.
Mainly, one, due to the high base effect of the past year. Plus, you know, obviously, we have had several good years, year after year, post-COVID. There is expected to be some moderation in demand this year. On the commercial vehicle front, in fact, we saw a decline in the Q4, with sales dropping to 2.8 lakh units from 3 lakh units in Q4, FY 2023. And the FY 2024 sales were at one million units compared to almost the same figure in the past years. It's been a flat year as far as commercial vehicle is concerned.
Here, clearly, going forward for the year FY 2024-2025, we see that there'll be a little slowdown in demand, mainly on account of, you know, elections, which are currently underway. It'll take some time for the CapEx cycle to restart. So expectation is that, post the monsoon, this should be... this should come back to a healthy, healthy growth figure. But till then, clearly, the industry feels that there's going to be a slowdown in demand as far as commercial vehicle is concerned. Coming to two-wheelers, three-wheelers, this is the bright spot. We saw a 26% growth year-on-year as far as Q4 sales is concerned. So we reached, 5.4 million for the quarter.
So, you know, which is very heartening to see that we are, if you annualize this, this is more than INR 20 million for the year, which is where we were before, you know, before 2019-20, when the two-wheeler industry was doing extremely well. So let's hope this continues. The market sentiment is favorable. You know, obviously, people have taken in the impact of all the price increases that have happened, and the rural sentiment also has improved to a large extent, and we also are seeing, and at least we have read that the monsoon is going to be above normal. So all this augurs well for the two-wheeler demand. We hope this should be in double digit as far as double digit growth as far as the year 2024-2025 is concerned.
Now, I mean, now, we of course cannot, you know, not discuss about EV. You know, this is, of course, been the talk of the town. But yes, last year we definitely saw a slowdown, bit of slowdown in EV. The growth rates earlier were 100%, 200%. So that is clearly not happening now, particularly in the two-wheeler segment, you know, because of the same policy change, we clearly saw a slowdown. And in the month of March, we saw a peak demand, but then again, in the month of April this year, we are seeing the demand dropping down. So it's around, for the two-wheeler, it's around 60,000-70,000 mark, but we clearly hope that this should pick up.
On passenger car EV, we are seeing a flattish demand. It's about 7,000 units-8,000 units range per month, with Tata Motors leading the pack here, you know, almost garnering 70% of the market share. And in two-wheelers, yes, Ola leading the pack, with, you know, a very robust sales all through the year. Now, if we move on to slide 16 on the revenue mix, which you can see here. We had, you know, for the full year, we had a two-wheeler mix of 61%, passenger car of 25%, and commercial vehicle of 12% in terms of channel mix. For the full year, 86% of OEs and 11% of aftermarket.
And we've, I mean, we have also grown very well in the aftermarket, in the past year, and that continues to be our focus area as always. Moving on to the next, I'll take you through, yeah, the individual BUs. This is slide 21, which talks about two-wheeler and three-wheeler segment. Here, our market share in the last year was 32%, so now we are looking at a slight drop, 31%. But definitely this should improve because we have had improvement in share of business at some of our key customers, plus some new models as well coming our way. And our traction EV continues to be strong.
We are almost on a 100% basis with almost all the top customers, Ola, Ather, TVS, and Ampere, of course, is in with us. So that is that definitely hold us very well in this segment. Coming to motorcycles, we have won the Piaggio RS 457, you know, a very good motorcycle launched by Piaggio, which is the Aprilia brand. Here we are single source, and it's an upside down fork, the new inverted front fork technology, which we have successfully commissioned and launched on a production basis. And in three-wheelers, we continue to remain strong with our customers mainly being, you know, of course, Bajaj, TVS, and Atul Auto.
As well as in electric vehicles, we are there with Mahindra, which is a leader in the segment. Coming to passenger cars, which is on slide 23, our market share is more or less flat, but we have, as shared last year, we are there on the Jimny platform and the electric Citroën C3. We have also won some new programs from Tatas, which are, three of them are on the electric platform. We have also won the new MQB 2.5 platform of the Volkswagen and one platform of Stellantis, which I've already shared. So this should definitely help us, you know, improve our market shares for the passenger vehicles. As you have seen, there's a shift now.
We have our passenger car percentage in terms of the total pie is 25%, which used to be 23% in FY 2023. So all those efforts that we took in terms of building the business pipeline is now yielding fruit, and we'll continue to work on this. If you see slide 24, the utility segment, which is growing, here, our share of business is quite strong. We are, you know, 35% of the market share is with us. So in the growth segment, we are doing well as far as, you know, passenger car is concerned. On commercial vehicles, yes, our market share remains, I mean, absolutely solid. So we are looking at exports in this segment. We are developing some new products, so our story with DAF as regard to exports is doing well.
We have been given two new dampers. Earlier we were only in the cabin dampers, now we have been given the RFQ and the business is under finalization for the axle dampers as well. This should help us, you know, get a much larger share with DAF in the Netherlands. And then based on this, we expect to leapfrog to other global CV customers as well. In the railways, I had said last time that we are present on each and every requirement of the Indian Railways, right from the coaches to the electric locomotives. And also now we have won the Siemens loco, where they are going to make the locomotives for the Indian Railways. Aftermarket, I did mention that, you know, we had a good year.
We crossed INR 400 crore for the first time in aftermarket. Coming to Slide 10-Slide 30, where we are sharing some pictures of, you know, our sunroof plant. You can see this is in Oragadam region of Chennai. The plant, as you can see, is looking beautiful now. In fact, we are doing a lot of greening now. You-- there are some pictures of the assembly line as well, and polyurethane molding line. And, you know, this, we are currently doing almost 10,000 sunroofs per month from this plant. Glad to share that we had a good, I mean, very good ramp up from zero to SOP, and that we had also a fairly good quarter.
The first quarter, we had reported almost INR 58 crore of sales with positive EBITDA. That's the good news. So that's actually, you know, quite a good record in terms of, you know, getting off the blocks. The other important thing is on slide 32, where we had shared that we have started a European engineering center in Belgium. We have now taken a bigger workshop space, and we are doing our experimentation as well as fitting a new vehicle which is currently a [fun name], a European vehicle with our semi-active suspension, and the trials will be done in the month of June, and we should be able to offer the first concept to a European customer in the month of July.
The order, however, will take some time, but at least our concept will be definitely ready for a European customer. And for Mahindra, we are demonstrating the revised prototype version in the month of June. So this is very quickly on, you know, the year that went by. So we now open it up to questions, and look forward to hearing from all of you. Thank you so much.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Amit Hiranandani from SMIFS Limited. Please go ahead.
Sir, once again, good set of numbers. Many congratulations to the team for all the efforts. Sir, I'll club my question on the sunroof side first. Please correct me if I'm wrong, the sunroof production started from January 2024. If yes, then in total, how many sunroof units sold in Q4? Any new auto wins apart from Kia? And, continuing with the sunroof, by when the sunroof business need to incur CapEx for adding new production lines, by which year, I mean? And, possible to generate mid-teens EBITDA margin and the sunroof by FY 2026. So this is my first question, please.
Amit, thank you. Thanks. Thanks for the compliment. So, yeah, sunroofs we have made, in the first quarter, we made an average of, roughly 60, about 23,000 sunroofs, and now the hit rate is in fact 10,000 per month. And your second question was on, you know, whether we have got any more customers. So we have Hyundai and Kia, and I'm glad to share that in fact, last week, we are also winning a new program from Hyundai further to what we have. And our Kia volume, Kia SOP, which is gonna start from January of 2025, the customer has already indicated a significant improvement in volumes, volume uptake.
So with this, we are actually looking at adding some CapEx, and in terms of a new line and a molding machine in the year, you know, in this fiscal year itself, towards the end of this fiscal year itself.
Sir, how much addition would be there after this CapEx? Currently, it's 200,000 units per annum, right?
Yeah. So that will be almost, almost doubling.
Is it possible to generate mid-teens EBITDA margin by FY 2026?
Amit, before that, that's the target.
Okay. Okay. And sir, my second question is basically on the two-wheeler side. So, so can you just elaborate what is the reason for drop in ICE and electric two-wheeler market share? I mean, as Bajaj Auto has been growing faster, so want to understand how much of this market share is sustainable. And just continuing with this, Gabriel supplies product to how many models of Ola Electric?
We supply to all models of Ola Electric, and in fact, we, we'll also be on the Ola motorcycle. So that's... So Ola, with Ola, it's really a very strong relationship. The market share, of course, if you can see, you know, the growth... has been pretty good as far as Hero MotoCorp is concerned, for the past year. Hero MotoCorp had really taken a beating, earlier, post-COVID. So now they are, they have picked up quite well. And as you know, we are not there with Hero. So in fact, we have already started our engagement with Hero, and we are in, you know, discussions, where we have got at least, you know, we have got couple of RFQs from Hero MotoCorp. That's all I can share at this moment.
So that's the main reason for the little drop in the market share. Otherwise, with our engagement with TVS, with Bajaj, with Honda Motorcycles, I mean, the three big players as well as Suzuki, continues to be very strong, and we keep getting new orders from them.
How much was the revenue from electric two-wheelers in FY 2024?
Electric two-wheelers, the total revenue was roughly in the range of INR 150 crore.
INR 150 crore. Sir, your outlook on the two-wheeler EV industry after the subsidy cut for the next two years, please?
Very difficult to forecast, Amit, you know, because right now, of course, there's a drop due to the subsidy cut, but you know, the policy, we all know, it can undergo changes. It's pretty clear. So we'll have to wait. So it's very difficult to take a guess. You know, the government is clearly pushing on electrification. So this, I think, is more of a temporary setback. The other thing is that the lithium prices are also down, so the battery prices are coming down, you know, whereby the ticket size of a two-wheel electric two-wheeler, which is one of the biggest impediments, is also coming down very closely in line with IC engine. And the running cost economics are, we all know, far better.
So, this two-wheeler bump, which we are seeing in terms of EV sales, is very likely to be overcome this year, once, you know, there's a clearer policy on this. It's difficult to take a call right now.
Sir, any new wins for the FSD technology?
For the FSD technology, no. We have shown the model to two other OEMs, but still it has not translated into a win. There's a lot of interest, for sure, but not yet translated into a win.
Okay. Sir, can you give me the CapEx outlook?
Sorry to interrupt you, sir.
Sure.
May I request you to rejoin the queue for your follow-up question?
Sure.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Thank you so much for the opportunity, sir, and congratulations on the good margins performance. So firstly, I just to mention about the new Hyundai order win.
May I request you to please use your handset?
Yeah, I'm using my handset. Is it better?
Can you come near to the mic and speak, please?
Yes, yes.
Better.
Yes.
Yeah.
Yeah. So just want to understand this Hyundai new order win, sir. When that order will start, sir, and what kind of volumes are they talking about, sir?
Those numbers, I mean, I really cannot share right now because it's a program of our customer. But this will be in the year 2026, 2027.
Okay. So as you mentioned, Kia order seeing a significant volume, higher outlook for the model. So can you share what kind of a revenue for sunroof we can see for this year and next year based on these two orders?
You know, we don't share the outlook, generally. So, you know, right now, I can't, but I can only say that, you know, the model that we won, they are also planning to introduce a electric model on the same platform. So that's how the numbers have increased as far as, you know, our our business is concerned for Kia. The SOP work for which will start in the last quarter of this fiscal.
Got it, sir. What will be the royalty charged by Inalfa for the sunroof business for this quarter, sir?
Those are sort of confidential document where we don't have an understanding with the JV partner to share it with you. But broadly, both the partners, once we have formed the JV. Currently, it is not formed the JV, right? We are still the 100% subsidiary of Gabriel. Once we formed, well, it's in the range of 5%-6% for both the parties. Total.
Got it, sir. I want to check on the progress on the new product line business expansion. Is it fair to say the focus would be on tech-agnostic area, and we would look into new products where there would be large revenue potential opportunity, like what we did for Sunroof. Can you share any update on the new product business?
Yeah. So on the new product line, there are, you know, two things. One is within the domain that we operate in, terms of suspension. So here, as I had mentioned, we are looking, we are exploring, you know, very, very deeply, for two new applications. They're not new products, but they are two new applications, wholly new applications. One is the e-bike, and the second is a solar damper. So we have, you know, our team was in Taiwan for the e-bike exploration. So we are, you know, engaging some experts to help us guide, because this is an area which is not present in India. We're already engaging couple of experts to guide us in this space. We have developed the product. It's come out well and appreciated by the customers.
The second part is the solar dampers, which is needed for, you know, the solar panel trackers. So even that we had a customer visit, the first customer visit in this business, and a lot of interest shown by them. So these are the two new applications as far as, you know, suspension is concerned. However, in terms of, you know, that getting translated into revenues for this year is difficult. We are still targeting some very minor sales in this year for these two products. Now, the second part is the product diversification, like we have done for sun roofs. So yes, you rightly said that diagnostic is the lens that we are looking at. And, you know, we are still exploring.
Even in suspension space, we are exploring—I mean, we are exploring some targets to add to our technology bouquet, you know, and augmenting our, you know, our technology strength, you know, from some experts in this field. So these, as of now, we don't have anything to share, but, you know, hopefully, in, I would say, as I said, in this year, definitely we'll be able to share more details on the same.
Got it, sir. And sir, can you share the CapEx outlook for FY 25 for standalone and consolidated, sir?
So for most standalone, we are looking at INR 100 crores-INR 120 crores. Usually we do INR 30 crores of routine CapEx. Apart from that, there will be capacity enhancement CapEx for debottlenecking, and there will be some on the digitization and the IoT this year. And for Inalfa, well, we have, we have not firmed up. Looking at the orders, we'll have to decide when do we put the line. But give and take, INR 40-odd crores would be sort of the expense on capacity enhancement over more lines.
Got it, sir. And just lastly, sir,
Sorry to interrupt you, sir. May I request you to rejoin the queue for your follow-up question?
Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Viraj from SiMPL. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, Nikhil here, in place of Viraj. Am I audible?
Yeah, Nikhil.
Yeah, hi. Good morning. Congrats on good set of numbers. First, on the base business, sir, if we look at our gross margin profile, it's still in the 24%-25% range, even though two-wheeler, which is a better margin business, as contribution has increased. So, how should we look at this margin profile improvement, even the product mix is improving, while the gross margin is still the same? So if you can just share any thoughts over there.
So, Nikhil, again, you've already seen improvement in gross margins in this quarter. Two prongs to that. One is, the sales mix, within the segment as well. So premiumization is definitely going to help us, and to that extent, the new orders that we are, we are winning will help us improve that piece. While you are right, that overall, two-wheeler business is, better in terms of margins, that improvement in margins of passenger cars will also improve the overall, numbers. And having said that, the cost reduction program, Core 90, that we run year on year, we have identified, several opportunities which we will kick...
Which we've already kickstarted this year, and we still stand to what we had shared last time in terms of moving into a double digit.
Okay. And on the export part, on the e-bikes, you mentioned that we are still developing the product and probably the revenue kicking will not happen this year. But on the DAF, I think this, the additional orders we've been talking about for last 2 quaters-3 quarters in terms of new products which we have done. So where are we in terms? What is the status over there, and when do they start commercializing? Some idea, like is it this year, next year?
Which one? You're talking of the e-bikes?
The DAF exports.
The DAF exports. The DAF-
So we-
We are already exporting to them. You know, we are selling cabin dampers to Europe, and now they extended us to Brazil as well. So that is happening, you know. Now, we were always looking at adding a new product, which is the main damper in the truck, which is the axle damper. So even that is now, you know, they have already sent us RFQ, and we have almost finished our commercial discussions. So that SOP will definitely not happen next year, but it'll be in 2026-2027. Yeah, yeah, it's in 2025-2026.
2025- 2026.
Yeah. As far as e-bike is concerned, you should understand that it's a totally new area, so, you know, our... Let's say, you know, there's no commonality of customers or commonality of markets for us. So it's a completely, you know, what do you call it? New area for us. So that's why we, we have now, narrowed down on some, global experts who have been in this business. We have finally found, located a couple of them, and this should help us, you know, streamline our efforts and, convert, convert our product into actual sales. That we are targeting some sales this year, some marginal sales to just kick it, kick off the journey.
Okay. And, last question from my side. So our, our stated ambition was to reach that double-digit margin. And now, if you look at the industry growth, auto industry growth, the numbers are more, like gradual versus what we've seen in last two years. Would you say that there is still lot effort, lot left in our P&L to move to the double-digit margin? Or is it, we have to sustain at 15%-18% growth to move to that double-digit margin? So is it more operating leverage driven, or do you have enough, lever to, pull probably and reach that, closer to that double-digit margin? So how should one understand here?
Yeah. So, one thing of course in the Nikhil is that, you know, if you look at the sunroof business, clearly it is going to be margin accretive, you know, so that is as far as, you know, sunroof business is concerned. But now on the core business and, you know, on the suspension itself, there are several levers in, like, exports and aftermarket, which we are, which we are pushing. And yes, you have seen the improvement, now, we've come to 9%. Obviously, tailwinds and, you know, let's say leverage based on volumes will help, but nevertheless, we are looking at improving our own efficiencies through automation, through the Core 90 program, and take this up further.
We are not saying that we have to, we are stopping here as far as EBITDA. Our commitment remains on double-digit margins.
Sure, I'll come back.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nishant Chauhan from Elara Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Am I audible?
Yes, sir.
So most of my questions have been answered. I just wanted one clarification. So, did you call out the revenues for sunroof business in this particular quarter? Because I think I missed that number.
We said it's about INR 60 crore for the quarter that went by, Q4.
Okay, so INR 60 crore revenue in Q4 and a positive EBITDA is what you mentioned?
Yes, yes.
Okay, great. Thanks. That's all.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhishek Jain from AlfAccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd.. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Thanks for the opportunity, and congrats for a strong set of numbers. Sir, you, you have won the business for the new Swift, where your SOP is around 30%. So how much incremental revenue are you able to generate in FY 2025 because of this? And will it help to increase your market share in passenger vehicle, which is now around 24%?
We had some difficulty understanding. Can you repeat it once?
Hello, sir. Are you able to hear me?
Yeah, yeah.
Sir, you have won the business for the new Swift, where your SOP is around 30%.
Sorry, just once.
New Swift.
New Swift. Okay. Okay.
Yeah. So, how much incremental revenue are you able to generate in FY 2025? And will it help to increase your market share in the passenger vehicle, which is now around 24%?
Yeah. So, definitely the new Swift, we have got the business, which is traditionally has been our, you know, competitors. So we have got the business as second source. The SOP is to start in the next fiscal, not in this fiscal, somewhere in Q2 of next fiscal. And yeah, we are expecting, you know, close to almost INR 90 crore-INR 100 crore of sale from this.
Okay, sir. And sir, in the sunroof you have mentioned around INR 58 crore revenue. So how much volume you supplied in the first quarter, fourth quarter, sir?
23,000 units.
23,000 units. Hello, sir? It's 23,000 units, right now?
Yes, yes.
This business is right now under 100% subsidy, and later it will be under JVs. So what would be the stake in the JVs and CapEx?
Abhishek, can you repeat the last part? What would be what?
What would be your stake in JV, and what would be the CapEx?
So we are waiting for some approvals, post which the partner can invest the capital in the entity and then the JV will get formed. As of now, it's difficult for us to target a date. And-
Next question about CapEx.
Yes. As we mentioned, we would be looking at a line, a new line, end of this year, early part of next year. The estimated CapEx would be around INR 40 crore.
Okay. And sir, in the sunroof you told about that, this quarter volume was 23,000 units. But you are saying that the monthly run rate would be around 10,000 units in the coming quarter, so I'm not able to understand that.
That's so-
Per month.
Yeah. Yeah, so see, 23,000 units is for the quarter. You know, in fact, not for the quarter, to be precise, we started SOP in the month of December.
Okay.
So we about 23,000 units from December, which was a very nominal figure, but January, February, March are 2024, right? But we were hitting a production of 8,000 units per month in, let's say, February and March. Now, that has gone up to 10,000 units because the Hyundai new Creta is doing well.
Okay.
It's 10,000 units per month now.
At full capacity of 200,000, what would be the EBITDA margin and ROC?
Well, we don't share that, but yeah, clearly this is EBITDA accretive, so we will have a clear double-digit EBITDA margin at the full phase.
Thanks, sir. My last question is, how much current content per vehicles in the Ola, and how much share of business with that?
How much, what, in Ola?
Content.
Oh, sorry, again, we don't share the figures of content per vehicle, but suffice to say that Ola, I mean, both the front fork and the shock absorber is 100% with Gabriel.
Okay, sir. Thank you, sir. That's all from me, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kunal Sabnis from Nine Rivers Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Thanks a lot for the opportunity, and congrats on a good set. So on the sunroof, the first question on sunroofs, it translates to about INR 25,000 per unit, the numbers you've shared. And you are running at about 60% capacity, I mean, 10,000 run rate per month and a 200,000 sort of capacity currently. By when do you expect to hit, based on your expectations, when do you expect to hit full capacity in, on the first line?
Once we have the Kia platform starting in Q4 of this year, we should be somewhere near, you know, hitting our capacity.
That should translate to about INR 500 crore of revenue run rate going forward from there, if you hit, like, 200,000 units.
Well, yeah, I mean, the pricing, you know, again, when you did some quick back-of-the-envelope calculation, so pricing is not exactly that. And there are obviously some considerations of the customers based on profitability gains, et cetera. But yeah, I mean, again, as is obvious, the guess would be INR 400 crore+, yeah.
Got it. Got it. Got it. And how much time will you take to add the second line?
One year.
One full year you will take to just add the line, right? It's-
Yes.
Okay. Got it. Secondly, sir, on the margins bit, so you're at 9.9%, it's a great scale up from what we have seen a year or two ago. And with the two-wheeler mix going up, you have sunroof margins, which will be accretive and TVS margin improving. I mean, is it good expectation to that you'll do sort of 10% EBITDA this year?
Well, I can say it's a good expectation, yes.
Okay, sir, thanks a lot for... That's all from my side. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mahesh Attal, from Attal & Associates. Please go ahead.
Sir, my question would be on your axle damper. What's the kind of market size in that particular space, which is a future product? I think you have mentioned it as a future development in your presentation.
So the-
What is the market size?
The axle damper opportunity that we are discussing is not a very big one, but yeah, looking at the commercial vehicle, it definitely is significant. So it's almost INR 25 crore per year sales that we are looking at. But the important thing there is that we are not looking at only this. This will open up the axle damper as a product for us for the global customers. So, you know, it's more important from that point of view.
My second question is on railways. Sir, I think when you... In the last con call, I remember that you told that the top line is not that, I mean, that great, but it adds to the bottom line. So how are we looking at railways as, you know, getting our top lines going there? Because there's a lot of traction coming from railways, I feel. So how do you see railways panning out for you?
Yeah. So, you know, railways, definitely, I mean, we still, we still maintain that, while top line is not very good, and the growth, while it has been good last year, post-COVID, there has been some recovery as far as production is concerned. But, you know, these are, Indian Railways being a government entity, the rate of growth is very slow. So, I mean, let's say, I mean, if you, if you talk about, you know, the, the coaches, LHB coach production, which last year was about 5,000, and this year it's 5,600. You know, so it's, you know, total coaches, is going from, let's say, 7,000 to 7,600 or 8,000. The rate of growth is not, the, the, the absolute size also is not very big.
But, yes, as I already shared, the good part is that we are now there on LHB, we are there on EMU, we are there on Loco, we are there on Vande Bharat. So every need of Indian Railways is catered to by Gabriel. And this is a tendering business, so yes, I mean, obviously we cannot expect, you know, more than a 25% share, becomes difficult.
Okay. And coming to sunroof, sir, so basically, when you say that you are already in Creta now-
Yes.
Are we also targeting other brands, like, why are we waiting till our fourth quarter just to, I mean, you know, when the Kia electric, whatever version is going to come, or you had a word with them, whatever it is. So why are you not targeting other brands when you know the capacities are on, already in line, and, why to wait till fourth, fourth quarter? Because I think there is no-- I think you are the one Indian player, I think... And who are you competing with in India? If you can throw some light on that particular segment.
Yeah. So, you know, the first player in sunroof actually is, you know, Webasto, of Germany. They have a fully, a fully owned subsidiary in Pune, and they're said, they're also putting up a plant in Chennai. They put up a plant in Chennai. And the second is, Golde, it was earlier CIE Golde. We are the third player. And second, you know, even if we wish to, you know, we have to wait for the customer to launch the product. So we have won the business of Kia. Now, the SOP of the customer is in the month of January, so obviously we'll have to wait till then.
Now, the second, the other part is, yes, with regard to other customers, we have already had, you know, very detailed discussions and meetings with all our customers because we have, I mean, as you know, we have excellent relationships with Tata, Mahindra, Volkswagen, Maruti, and all customers. So we already had several discussions. The good part is we received RFQ, RFQ from almost all of them for a new program. But yes, the start of production dates were completely, you know, impossible, so we obviously could not meet them. But yes, this is just a start. We will definitely be there for the next RFQ.
That point is made, and we will hopefully see us winning business beyond Hyundai and Kia in other customers in somewhere in this fiscal.
My last question would be.
Start of production on the customer, I mean, their, their SOP, yeah.
Yeah, fair enough. My last question would be, sir, if we are looking at, you know, getting good business in the sunroof segment, and then you say that it will take you one year time for a new CapEx to come in. So why are we not looking at... Because you said that there is only INR 120 crores of outlay of CapEx this year.
Yeah.
Don't you think it's good for us to look into the expansion side also from now, because-
What we did-
Time is scope for, I think will be up to your, capacity, so.
So let me explain. You know, so what is more important in this is, you know, to ensure that we have a facility which can accommodate two lines. So that is what we have done. That's why we took a facility which is, you know, pretty big, 170,000 sq ft, where we had only one line, but we have provision, provision for more. So that we have already done. Now, coming to the other part, it, you know, we, the manufacturing of these lines, these lines are imported, even the machine is imported, so that takes, there's a lead time for that. So that is why I said we have already taken the decision, and we'll be going ahead with the expansion to new lines in this, in this year itself.
The ordering and the physical line to come will take one year.
So basically, what I understand is that you'll be placing an order, but the delivery will be after a year. What is, if my understanding is right?
That's right, yeah.
All right. All the best, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Akshay from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead. May I request you to please unmute your line, Mr. Akshay?
Sorry, am I audible?
Yes, sir. Please go ahead.
Sir, thank you so much for the opportunity. Firstly, sir, congratulations on a very good set of numbers. It is heartening to see margins inching up to the double-digit sort of 8%-11% in the next couple of years. Clearly, sir, the trend of minimization has helped, and you in opening remarks, you mentioned about the European business that you will be selling, that will be commencing by the month of July. So just wanted to know what who is the customer for this and what type of volume they're expecting. Also in your earlier comments, you talked about the INR 26 crore revenue that you will be generating from the FSD dampers. So just if you could talk about this business?
I think there's some, actually some confusion. So what I mentioned was, twenty-five crores revenue we are expecting from the DAF, DAF Netherlands, which is a company leading commercial vehicle manufacturer of Europe and the world. So that for the new product that we are discussing, which will happen, the SOP for which will happen in early 2025. That will be about INR 25 crore peak sales, peak annual sales per year. Okay?
Per year, okay. And just, similarly-
I mean, there's some confusion.
Got it. What would be the European business, the OEM, that would be, we would be selling to? So let's say if this translates to better margins, similarly, we would be developing the same for M&M. So how would this work out for the domestic markets and the European markets? What type of business you would be expecting from the long term?
... The exports, you know, our exports is just about INR 100 crore. So yes, while, this figure could have and should have been much better, which we have been telling all along, but, but, a positive way of looking at it is the upside is, much higher. And, you know, with this axle dampers, we'll open up a new product line, so that will be very important as far as commercial vehicle is concerned. We are in discussions with two other global, passenger car OEMs. I mean, when I say discussions, advanced discussions of getting some new, new business and, new opportunities as pure exports. But that will, that will fructify, in terms of getting the order, we, we expect them to fructify in this fiscal.
The sales will be at least, you know, two years from now.
Hmm. Got it, sir. And sir, my second question on the sunroof part, again, in the analyst you mentioned that the—so in by FY 2025, post Kia coming up with better volumes, so we can expect revenues around INR 400 crore for FY 2025, or was it spread over the next two years? Maybe depend on.
Yes, we're talking about FY 2025, annualized, so it will be 2025, 2026.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much, and wish you all the best, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Hiranandani from SMIFS Limited. Please go ahead.
Sir, can you please explain more about the new upcoming product, which is solar dampers, the market size and who's currently making it, the revenue and margin potential for this?
Amit, I'll just start that and then Mr. Kolhatkar will come by. He's taking a bio break. So essentially, this product, what happens in the Western world is that with the changing sun direction, the solar panels also needs to be aligned to it, so as to get better utilization of the heat. Now, if to do so, there's a damper that is being put, which effectively helps in the movement from, say, left to right or from bottom to up. Now, in that situation, these are large dampers, much bigger in size. And while the utilization during the year is smaller, but during the day is smaller, but the weight that they carry is pretty much pretty high.
The closest product for us, it would be sort of a railway damper. We are yet... So we have looked at the market, we have looked at who are the people who are buying. They are largely those who are doing the installations of these panels in the country and outside. The question was with regard to solar dampers, the market size.
Yeah.
So, um-
It's a very, very big market size, you know, in terms of solar dampers. So, and it's a good, I mean, I must say, a good priced product as well. Margins also we expect to be quite good. This is quite similar to our railway dampers, so that's why it gives us an edge to actually meet the customer requirements.
Okay. Sir, any new order wins in the railway business? So how much, you know, railway is now contributing within that CV and railway segment?
Yeah. So we shared last time. I mean, we are there on all platforms, so there is no particular new order win. But yes, we won the order from Siemens for the loco. They have got the contract to manufacture the loco, electric locomotives. So we have won 50% of the business from Siemens.
How much it is contributing now to the CV and railway segment?
This again, this SOP will start later in 2025, 2026. It's not now. But, again, and the size of this is still, I mean, nowhere near what we have. It's a decent size, but not very large.
No, I mean, my question is basically how much railway's revenue is, you know, as a percentage of your CV and railway segment?
Oh, of CV and railway segment, that's still, still a small. It's, I mean, I would say-
Because it's a small number-
Yeah. We usually don't give a split of commercial vehicle and railways, so sorry, we will not be able to share that.
Okay. Sir, my second question is on the aftermarket business. So from where the growth will come in this business for the coming two to three years, and are we still aiming for the mid-teens growth in the aftermarket?
Oh, yes, certainly. So the growth will come by penetration into, you know, all the interiors. You know, India is a vast market, and yes, definitely there's a good, I mean, good offtake of aftermarket products. We are also launching new products. We had launched last year, and over the last two years, the tires, the brake pads we launched. We also launched, you know, cone sets, we launched, bush kits, several products that we are launching, and continuously adding to this product basket, whereby we leverage the Gabriel brand. So that way, you know, we will be able to definitely, you know, stay in double-digit margins as far as growth is concerned. If I can just add, with improvement in the overall passenger car sales and the models where we stay in, there is going to be a cascading effect in the aftermarket piece as well.
... Great, great. And so just last quick small two questions. Just on the export side, it has been de-growing on a Y-o-Y basis since last three quarters. And secondly, on the margin side, basically on a Q-o-Q basis, we have seen, you know, EBITDA margin has improved. So what has led to that, and how confident you are to take this margin to low double digit by FY 2026?
Two parts of the question, Amit. First is that while mix plays an interesting role, it is not the lever that we were banking on. These were tangible cost reduction and profit improvement projects. And we've not fallen short of the forward-looking projection internally in terms of exports. So that was already baked in. In terms of being confident, yes, we were—we stated this in mid-course of the whole year, and we delivered the Quarter Four results, and we are fairly confident of continuing this and taking it to the double digits.
Sir, on the export side, it's year-on-year de-growing since last three quarters. That's it. Thank you.
Yeah. So, one, obviously, the Russia piece has played out from the previous year to this year. But, if you look at the numbers, the numbers are almost flattish, for the quarter, for the last three quarters. But yes, some impact is on DAF that we have mentioned, and some improvement in the aftermarket exports is certainly going to help.
Yes, sir. All the best. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you so much for giving the opportunity again.
Sorry to interrupt you, sir. May I request you to use your handset, please?
Yeah. Yeah, it's better?
Yes, sir.
Yeah. Thank you. So I just want to understand, sir, next two orders, what type of sunroof will be? It will be panoramic or a previous, sir, for next two orders, sir?
It's currently both panoramic.
Great, sir. And, just want to understand on industry, you mentioned three players. So, broadly, what kind of market share would all the three players would have in the market, sir?
Well, Webasto is number one, clearly, because they were the first mover advantage, so they clearly are number one. I would say in terms of volumes, with Hyundai and Kia, we should become number two.
Okay. And sir, would now industry so depending on the inputs of the sunroof, or, or the now the industry is localized industry in terms of volume side?
Can you repeat that, Mumuksh?
I mean, is sunroof now fully localized in India now with the three players, or, or there is still a lot of imports happening?
It's a long way for localization. So localization are still very low, but, yeah, it will definitely improve over the next two years.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much for this opportunity. Thank you.
Thank you. The last question is from the line of Nikhil from SiMPL. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Just two clarification. One is on Inalfa. The current quarter margins, which we have reported, is after the payout of the royalty or as of now, we are not paying?
It is after the payout of the technical, fees.
Okay. And secondly, Rahul, you mentioned that we should be able to reach double-digit margin in Inalfa. Would it be even at like 60%-65% utilization, which we are running currently, or would that Kia order and everything comes in at optimal utilization, we should be reaching there?
With the Hyundai program itself, we should be able to reach there.
Okay, fine. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Manoj Kolhatkar for closing comments.
Thank you. Thank you once again for all the questions. Clearly, we are seeing a lot of interest in sunroof, which is very good to know. And hopefully, as I said, as we go along this year, we definitely hope to add, I mean, add some more, some more interesting news as well. And, yes, nonetheless, thanks, thanks once again for the support and for the year that went by, and look forward to a equally exciting year and, you know, good pickup post the elections. So thank you, and, all the very best to everybody. Thank you.
On behalf of Gabriel India Ltd., that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.