Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon and welcome to the Q3 and 9 Months FY25 Earnings Conference Call of VIP Industries Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Prateek Patil from Adfactors PR Investor Relations Team. Thank you, and over to you.
Thank you, Ashish-ji . Very good afternoon to everyone. From the senior management, we have with us Ms. Neetu Kashiramka, Managing Director, and Mr. Manish Desai, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin the conference call, I would like to mention that some of the statements made during the course of today's call may be forward-looking in nature, including those related to the future financials and operating performances, benefits and synergies of the company's strategy, future opportunities, and growth of the market of the company's services. Further, I would like to mention that some of the statements made in today's conference call may involve risks and uncertainties. Thank you, and over to you, Ms. Neetu Kashiramka.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining the call. We announced our third-quarter results for FY25 yesterday. Before we move on to the quarter revenue and profitability performance, I would like to give some broad highlights for the period. We have been able to reduce inventory in the last nine months by INR 224 crores. Volume-wise, 64 lakhs reduced to 47 lakhs. Debt reduction of INR 86 crores. Further, as promised, we are at 6% EBITDA versus nil last quarter. Another positive in this quarter was a favorable judgment received from Tribunal on CST demand of INR 374 crores. Bangladesh turned positive for the quarter as promised. We have also finished overall org structure across the organization, the fruits of which will be visible in the coming quarters. New Carlton stores with renewed identity opened at Colaba. We have planned to open 25 such stores in the next six months.
Market share gain of 2% in the last one year. Moving on to the revenue performance, volume growth of 13%. Yes, definitely, value has regrown, largely on account of netting off of e-commerce price support, lower secondaries, and reduced ASPs amidst intense competition and liquidation of SL inventory. If I have to talk on channel-wise, e-commerce continued its growth trajectory. However, it was slightly lower pace as compared to H1. Within offline, modern trade was relatively better given the expansion of doors and better product assortment. Institutional sales were better given the festive demand and opening of new B2B accounts. Institutional sales have been growing consistently for us, and the salience has improved. International business suffered due to underperformance of key countries like Asia and GCC. Talking about brand, value segment continues its growth story, largely driven by e-commerce.
While the lower-end offering grows, a premium share of business continues to hold 50% plus revenue. Focus on Carlton has resulted in increasing its salience in the overall revenue. More in the pipeline given the new launches planned in the near future, along with more exclusive stores coming up. VIP also continued to hold share on back of successful new launches and price calibration with online and offline. Kiara Collection continued its stellar performance during Q3. Expansion of category in GT helped us register higher single-digit growth for quarter three for Caprese. Hard luggage continued to be the fastest-growing category, having a share of 63% in the overall performance. Moving on to profitability, gross margin improved by 150 basis points, giving confidence on various initiatives which are underway for further cementing on this front.
Focus on cost rationalization and better absorption of fixed overhead, coupled with gross margin improvement, resulted in sequential improvement of 600 basis points in EBITDA. The complete benefit of all the initiatives will be visible only in subsequent quarters to come. The overall loss has further sequentially on reduced turnover. Future outlook: industry is seeing tailwinds on back of the number of wedding dates, religious travels, hotel occupancy, month-on-month increase in the percentage of travel numbers. We are on track for a transformation journey. The early signals are already visible in quarter three results, and more of the same will be visible in quarter four. As promised earlier, for a 12% EBITDA for exit quarters, I'm quite confident that we will deliver this promise. New launches across all product categories are on track and hopeful of some handsome contribution in the overall revenue during the upcoming season.
Bangladesh operations are running without any disruption, and capacity utilization is likely to exceed in the coming quarters, and it will start contributing positively to the overall results. With this, I would like to conclude my opening remarks and open the floor for questions. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. In order to ensure that management is able to answer queries from all participants, kindly restrict to two questions at a time. You may join back the queue for follow-up questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We'll take our first question from the line of Ritesh Gandhi from Discovery Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, ma'am. I joined the call slightly late. Could you just talk a little bit about how much of your excess inventory you've been able to liquidate in Q3, and how much is an imbalance still? And overall, how much your debt levels are right now?
So basically, we have reduced our inventory overall by INR 225 crores. If I have to talk about the slow-moving, it is in the range of around 80 to 100 crores now. And hopefully, this should be meaningfully reduced in quarter four. Second question, debt we have reduced by INR 87 crores.
Okay. But I mean, I think initially what you had guided towards in Q2 when at some of the conferences was that there was going to be a higher amount of liquidation of the slow-moving inventory, right? And a reduction in your debt levels in Q3, right? So you just wanted to understand the reason behind being slightly slow.
We had a INR 100 crore reduction in debt by March. We are at INR 87 crore by quarter three. So we are there. Liquidation of inventory, yes, we had indicated that it will be in the range of INR 500 crore to INR 550 crore by end quarter. We are still striving to reach there.
Got it. Got it, and with regards to your EBITDA margin, do we expect from Q4 onwards for it to inch towards a double-digit EBITDA margin as well?
Yes. So that was part of my commentary also that we had promised 12%, and we are there to deliver that for quarter four.
Got it. All right. Thank you. That's all from me for now. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Dinesh Joshi from Prabhudas Lilladher. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Madam, if I look at our other expenses, it has come off meaningfully to about INR 150 crores in this quarter. So is it primarily due to reduction in the warehousing and freight cost given the progress made on inventory liquidation and the fact that you mentioned that about INR 80 to INR 100 crores of slow-moving inventory is yet to be liquidated? What should be the new normal as far as your other expense cost is concerned?
Dinesh, Manish over here, your understanding is right. The larger reduction of the overhead is part of my inventory-associated cost, including my warehouse as well as the secondary freight, what we used to incur between the two storage locations. If I look from the going forward in the quarter four, more and more the further inventory liquidation will help us out to reduce in the such kind of cost. But we have to keep in mind that we'll be preparing ourselves for the quarter one, which is should move in an offline channel. So we may have to probably the level of warehouse and the cost may remain same. However, the composition of the inventory in terms of the slow-moving will substantially get reduced, and we'll be having a larger share of the inventory catering to the new product launches for the upcoming season.
Sure. Is it possible to call out what is your excess warehousing cost in order to house the INR 80-100 crores of slow-moving inventory that you still have with you?
I would not like to do too much quantification on Dinesh, but if to give a flavor of it, we could reduce around 5 lakh amount of 5 lakh sq ft space in the last four months' time frame and hopefully to go further down by another 1-2 lakhs minimum, keeping in mind that we may require some of the space for inventory built up, which will take it for the quarter four for the quarter one preparation.
Sure. My second question is on our Bangladesh operations. Apparently, after three to four quarters, I think we were profitable in that region. So can you highlight what was the capacity utilization in this quarter? And given the fact that the industry is moving towards hard luggage and we predominantly manufacture soft luggage over there, do you foresee material improvement in the utilization to come through? And in that context, if you can also highlight what is your annual fixed cost of running the Bangladesh operation?
So, Dinesh, for quarter three, our utilization was at 60%. It is profitable because we have done quite a lot of work in reducing the overall cost there, including manpower, because manpower is the largest cost. As indicated earlier also, last year, same time, we had 8,500 people there. Today, we have 3,500. With more capacity utilization, because till now, we haven't started producing uprights. However, from January, we are starting to produce soft luggage uprights in Bangladesh. With that, our utilization will be in the range of 85%, and therefore, it will have a meaningful profit for me. But if the cost structure is at 50% utilization, we'll break even.
Understood. Understood. One last bookkeeping question from my side. I think the inventory reduction number is INR 224 crores over the nine-month period. But if I look at one of your slides on the balance sheet in the PPT, the inventory for December 2023 is at about INR 829 crores versus the March number of INR 916 crores. So if you can just highlight the difference part over here.
So when we are talking about reduction of INR 224 crores, we are talking from the March 2024 level, which is at a peak INR 916 crores. Yes, the December inventory was on a lower side. Our expectation is to go back to those levels in the near one or two quarters once we are through with the slow-moving and set upright inventory on this part.
Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon and welcome to the Q3 and 9 Months FY25 Earnings Conference Call of VIP Industries Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Prateek Patil from Adfactors PR Investor Relations Team. Thank you, and over to you.
Thank you, Ashish Lee. Very good afternoon to everyone. From the senior management, we have with us Ms. Neetu Kashiramka, Managing Director, and Mr. Manish Desai, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin the conference call, I would like to mention that some of the statements made during the course of today's call may be forward-looking in nature, including those related to the future financials and operating performances, benefits and synergies of the company's strategy, future opportunities, and growth of the market of the company's services. Further, I would like to mention that some of the statements made in today's conference call may involve risks and uncertainties. Thank you, and over to you, Ms. Neetu Kashiramka.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining the call. We announced our third-quarter results for FY25 yesterday. Before we move on to the quarter revenue and profitability performance, I would like to give some broad highlights for the period. We have been able to reduce inventory in the last nine months by INR 224 crores. Volume-wise, 64 lakhs reduced to 47 lakhs. Debt reduction of INR 86 crores. Further, as promised, we are at 6% EBITDA versus nil last quarter. Another positive in this quarter was a favorable judgment received from Tribunal on CST demand of INR 374 crores. Bangladesh turned positive for the quarter as promised. We have also finished overall org structure across the organization, the fruits of which will be visible in the coming quarters. New Carlton stores with renewed identity opened at Colaba. We have planned to open 25 such stores in the next six months.
Market share gain of 2% in the last one year. Moving on to the revenue performance, volume growth of 13%. Yes, definitely, value has regrown, largely on account of netting off of e-commerce price support, lower secondaries, and reduced ASPs amidst intense competition and liquidation of SL inventory. If I have to talk on channel-wise, e-commerce continued its growth trajectory. However, it was slightly lower pace as compared to H1. Within offline, modern trade was relatively better given the expansion of doors and better product assortment. Institutional sales were better given the festive demand and opening of new B2B accounts. Institutional sales have been growing consistently for us, and the salience has improved. International business suffered due to underperformance of key countries like Asia and GCC. Talking about brand, value segment continues its growth story, largely driven by e-commerce.
While the lower-end offering grows, a premium share of business continues to hold 50% plus revenue. Focus on Carlton has resulted in increasing its salience in the overall revenue. More in the pipeline given the new launches planned in the near future, along with more exclusive stores coming up. VIP also continued to hold share on back of successful new launches and price calibration with online and offline. Kiara Collection continued its stellar performance during Q3. Expansion of category in GT helped us register higher single-digit growth for quarter three for Caprese. Hard luggage continued to be the fastest-growing category, having a share of 63% in the overall performance. Moving on to profitability, gross margin improved by 150 basis points, giving confidence on various initiatives which are underway for further cementing on this front.
Focus on cost rationalization and better absorption of fixed overhead, coupled with gross margin improvement, resulted in sequential improvement of 600 basis points in EBITDA. The complete benefit of all the initiatives will be visible only in subsequent quarters to come. The overall loss has further sequentially on reduced turnover. Future outlook: industry is seeing tailwinds on back of the number of wedding dates, religious travels, hotel occupancy, month-on-month increase in the percentage of travel numbers. We are on track for a transformation journey. The early signals are already visible in quarter three results, and more of the same will be visible in quarter four. As promised earlier, for a 12% EBITDA for exit quarters, I'm quite confident that we will deliver this promise. New launches across all product categories are on track and hopeful of some handsome contribution in the overall revenue during the upcoming season.
Bangladesh operations are running without any disruption, and capacity utilization is likely to exceed in the coming quarters, and it will start contributing positively to the overall results. With this, I would like to conclude my opening remarks and open the floor for questions. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. In order to ensure that management is able to answer queries from all participants, kindly restrict to two questions at a time. You may join back the queue for follow-up questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We'll take our first question from the line of Ritesh Gandhi from Discovery Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, ma'am. I joined the call slightly late. Could you just talk a little bit about how much of your excess inventory you've been able to liquidate in Q3, and how much is an imbalance still? And overall, how much your debt levels are right now?
So basically, we have reduced our inventory overall by INR 225 crores. If I have to talk about the slow-moving, it is in the range of around 80 to 100 crores now. And hopefully, this should be meaningfully reduced in quarter four. Second question, debt we have reduced by INR 87 crores.
Okay. But I mean, I think initially what you had guided towards in Q2 when at some of the conferences was that there was going to be a higher amount of liquidation of the slow-moving inventory, right? And a reduction in your debt levels in Q3, right? So you just wanted to understand the reason behind being slightly slow.
We had a INR 100 crore reduction in debt by March. We are at INR 87 crore by quarter three. So we are there. Liquidation of inventory, yes, we had indicated that it will be in the range of INR 500 crore to INR 550 crore by end quarter. We are still striving to reach there.
Got it. Got it, and with regards to your EBITDA margin, do we expect from Q4 onwards for it to inch towards a double-digit EBITDA margin as well?
Yes. So that was part of my commentary also that we had promised 12%, and we are there to deliver that for quarter four.
Got it. All right. Thank you. That's all from me for now. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Dinesh Joshi from Prabhudas Lilladher. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Madam, if I look at our other expenses, it has come off meaningfully to about INR 150 crores in this quarter. So is it primarily due to reduction in the warehousing and freight cost given the progress made on inventory liquidation and the fact that you mentioned that about INR 80 to INR 100 crores of slow-moving inventory is yet to be liquidated? What should be the new normal as far as your other expense cost is concerned?
Dinesh, Manish over here, your understanding is right. The larger reduction of the overhead is part of my inventory-associated cost, including my warehouse as well as the secondary freight, what we used to incur between the two storage locations. If I look from the going forward in the quarter four, more and more the further inventory liquidation will help us out to reduce in the such kind of cost. But we have to keep in mind that we'll be preparing ourselves for the quarter one, which is should move in an offline channel. So we may have to probably the level of warehouse and the cost may remain same. However, the composition of the inventory in terms of the slow-moving will substantially get reduced, and we'll be having a larger share of the inventory catering to the new product launches for the upcoming season.
Sure. Is it possible to call out what is your excess warehousing cost in order to house the INR 80-100 crores of slow-moving inventory that you still have with you?
I would not like to do too much quantification on Dinesh, but if to give a flavor of it, we could reduce around 5 lakh amount of 5 lakh sq ft space in the last four months' time frame and hopefully to go further down by another 1-2 lakhs minimum, keeping in mind that we may require some of the space for inventory built up, which will take it for the quarter four for the quarter one preparation.
Sure. My second question is on our Bangladesh operations. Apparently, after three to four quarters, I think we were profitable in that region. So can you highlight what was the capacity utilization in this quarter? And given the fact that the industry is moving towards hard luggage and we predominantly manufacture soft luggage over there, do you foresee material improvement in the utilization to come through? And in that context, if you can also highlight what is your annual fixed cost of running the Bangladesh operation?
So, Dinesh, for quarter three, our utilization was at 60%. It is profitable because we have done quite a lot of work in reducing the overall cost there, including manpower, because manpower is the largest cost. As indicated earlier also, last year, same time, we had 8,500 people there. Today, we have 3,500. With more capacity utilization, because till now, we haven't started producing uprights. However, from January, we are starting to produce soft luggage uprights in Bangladesh. With that, our utilization will be in the range of 85%, and therefore, it will have a meaningful profit for me. But if the cost structure is at 50% utilization, we'll break even.
Understood. Understood. One last bookkeeping question from my side. I think the inventory reduction number is INR 224 crores over the nine-month period. But if I look at one of your slides on the balance sheet in the PPT, the inventory for December 2023 is at about INR 829 crores versus the March number of INR 916 crores. So if you can just highlight the difference part over here.
So when we are talking about reduction of INR 224 crores, we are talking from the March 2024 level, which is at a peak INR 916 crores. Yes, the December inventory was on a lower side. Our expectation is to go back to those levels in the near one or two quarters once we are through with the slow-moving and set upright inventory on this part.
No, sorry. I think I did not put it across properly. The reduction from 916 to 829 is somewhere around INR 100 crores, sub INR 100 crores.
But we are using the different 916 to 624.
Yeah, yeah. You are reading in reverse.
You are reading in reverse, Dinesh.
Okay. Okay. Okay. Thank you. Thank you.
Yeah.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Bhargav from Ambit Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Bhargav, can you use your handset mode? Your audio is not clear.
Yeah. Can you hear now?
A little better. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So congratulations on the return back to profitability in Q3. So my first question is on gross margin. So if we look at Q1, Q2, Q3, consistently, we've seen gross margin improvement. But this is on the back of significant pricing pressure. So how are we sort of managing this? Is it that the share of Bangladesh is rising, and that is what is helping us to improve gross margin despite such pricing pressure?
So I would say that quarter one and quarter two, we know that Bangladesh was having negative results. Quarter three has just a break even in terms of it, and contribution has come positively from the Bangladesh side. So one aspect on the Bangladesh turnaround. Second thing is, as you recollect, we were working on various cost initiatives as well as benchmarking of our product with the competition.
That helped us to calibrate our price in a more meaningful manner, contributing to the overall gross margin improvement.
There are some more actions which we are doing on the product as well.
When we are guiding for a 12% exact margin in fourth quarter, is it primarily led by gross margin improvement, or do you think there is a scope of further savings in the OpEx as well?
3%. 3% on account of gross margin balance on account of operating leverage.
Okay. And if you look at your other expenditure, the run rate has reduced significantly Q1, Q2, INR 190-INR 150 crores. So on a sustainable basis, assuming that we grow at about 15%-20% maybe next year, what can be the run rate we can look at in other expenses on a quarterly basis?
Other than freight, everything else is fixed, right?
Yes. And keep in mind that as we move forward, probably expenditure on our brand advertisement will slightly go up from where we are currently. So I would say that rather look into the level at which fixed overhead operates, we need to see how quickly or in a meaningful absorbed expenditure in order to contain the overall percentage of overhead to turnover.
And lastly, is it possible to highlight what has been the operating cash flow and free cash flow in nine months?
So if I look from the operating cash flow perspective, it is around INR 200 crores we generated in the period of nine months. And the utilization of that is towards our repayment of the debt to the tune of 86 to 87 crores interest and some moderate CapEx we incur of 32-35 crores. And remaining is in the cash equivalent investments.
Perfect. Great. Thank you very much and all the very best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, ma'am. Thanks for the opportunity. Ma'am, first question is, can you quantify what is the absolute quantum of inventory that we are holding right now? December end?
December end is INR 692 crores.
692 crores. And ma'am, what will be our target, say, by March and then June end?
So as I just said to the other colleague, that we have to the inventory level will be slightly on a higher side given our Q1 season. We hope to remain within another INR 700-720 crores by 31st March. But by June 2025, we should go back to a normalcy of INR 500-550 crores.
Okay. That's helpful. So, ma'am, second question is just if you could give us some flavor on we have appointed BCG. Basically, they are working on multiple variables, including revenue optimization, reduction in cost, and optimization of supply chains. If you could highlight from a top-down standpoint, what is it strategically that we are looking to achieve, and if there's any possible quantification over there, that would be quite useful, ma'am.
So basically, we are looking across all areas how we can reduce costs and improve our margin. So basically, the project is to add INR 250 crores to the bottom line in a nutshell. So we are 50% through, and it's working out. So basically, increase gross margin, reduce cost, supply chain, secondary freight across all areas.
I'm specific to supply chain. Are we looking to try a different model, Hub and Spoke, outsourcing? I think we had spoken about that earlier.
We're not looking at a different model, but maybe optimize our network where and how we should have, and secondly, also working on a fill rate because that is something which was a problem. Also, if you see our freight as a percentage of revenue was higher than the year, so these are the three things which.
More than equally, once my inventory level comes down to normalcy, probably some kind of leverage will certainly start working.
Right. Ma'am, I think you had indicated on revenue optimization as well. Is there any internal benchmark that we are at versus where the competition would be and we look to reach there? Any numbers that you can highlight?
As we said that market share, yes, definitely. In last one year, we have gained 2%, but we are still below the industry growth. So that is something where we want to do better than industry, and that is the only part where the market share can go up. Today, we are at 38% market share. The idea is to have stable market share at 40% and then maybe 1% or 2% increase from there.
Any other operational parameters, ma'am, be it fill rate or sales velocity or store economics that you would like to highlight or call out for?
Each and everything is what we are working on currently. For example, in e-commerce, we are working on how we can increase our share on marketplace. In case of retail, we are working on how we can increase same store growth. So like that, each channel we are working on, also working on better assortment. For example, in CSD, we are listing other products which are newly launched. So like that, each channel we are having areas of improvement. In case of institution, we are adding more customers, so more corporates into the fold.
Sure. That's helpful. I'll join back with you. Thank you so much.
Okay.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Naveen Baid from Nuvama Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. So ma'am, I have a question on volume growth and price growth, realization growth for next year. So this year, we've seen almost 15%-16% volume growth, but almost entire amount has been taken away by either realization change or change in mix. Can you throw some color on what the volume growth could look like for the next year, and are we at the bottom end of the pricing decline?
I think yes, we are at the bottom end of pricing decline. Next year, we believe that whatever is the volume growth will be the value growth because there are a lot of initiatives which we are working on to make sure that our realizations improve from where we are. One thing on realization is also because of the liquidation which is currently on. Post quarter four, I think that quantum will definitely come down, which will help us to increase our realization.
You guided for double-digit volume growth over the next year. Can you just throw some more color as to whether it will mix in?
I think maybe industry growth, and industry is expected to grow 8%-10%. So that is the kind of growth you can consider at this point of time for us.
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Tejas Shah from Avendus Spark Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. First question pertains to, ma'am, your guidance or your comments, opening remarks that our margins, weighted average margins at gross level were largely dragged down by the SL upright's liquidation. So I was just looking at salience of upright. It's just 13% left now, which was 23% last year. So a commendable job there. But I was just wondering that 80, 10%, the balance 87% salience, is it operating at north of 50%? And this is very U.S. kind of liquidation, hence it must be at a very, very low level. Or the gross margin delta is not marginally different from what average is today, which is 46.5, and hence the 300 basis point guidance that you have said for the next quarter improvement will be largely driven by this 13% going to zero, and that itself will improve the number.
13% will not go to zero. There is always some natural demand. However, today what we are doing is let's assume we are maybe operating at a 15%-20% of gross margin versus a company average of 47%, right? Now, that share when the liquidation piece comes down, that gets into the delta. The second piece is, as I said, we are working on improving the realization across the brand. So brand mix also. So we want to sell more of the VIP and Skybags. Last time also I touched upon this that in the opening price point, set pricing today, we are focusing more on Aristocrat. Going forward, we want to focus more on Skybags and VIP. What that will do is that will give us additional revenue, which is let's assume today Aristocrat set is sold at INR 7,000.
Instead, I will sell a set of INR 10,000 more, which is VIP and Skybags. That will help me to improve my margins, also increase the realization.
Sure. And ma'am, your guidance on double-digit margin by fourth quarter. So how should we think about margins now sustainably going ahead in FY 26 and beyond?
FY 2026, I always said that we should be able to do 15% by spending more on the brand because whatever initiatives we are doing today, if you see brand visibility is low. Most of the spend what we are doing today is on performance marketing in e-commerce. I think next year we want to spend 2-3% more on the brand. Otherwise, we can do 18%, but I want to spend more on the brand. Therefore, 15% is what I want to do for the year next year with more spend on the brand.
And then this 10%-15% gap will be bridged by gross largely or operating leverage?
Today, if you see a lot of these initiatives, one is gross margin. The second piece is today, whatever initiatives we have done, it's not fully kicked in. For example, I spoke about org restructuring. Now, that benefit will start from January, but next year it will be a full year impact.
Okay, and org restructuring?
Each line item, it is like that. For example, now warehousing costs. So as in the earlier question, Manish said that our inventory going forward from June onward, it will be in the range of INR 550 crores. Today, we are at 700. So that 150 crore reduction in inventory will automatically reduce all my costs associated with warehousing, loading, unloading, warehousing across.
Got it. And then lastly, we had some credit rating downgrade around December. So has it impacted our cost of borrowing? And is the board considering any equity infusion to improve the balance sheet situation inorganically rather than waiting for demand situation and other things to improve the balance sheet?
If you look into it, our short-term borrowing rating remained the same at the highest level. It's the long-term which got impacted. Today, we are having all the working capital loans having the short-term in nature, so the interest cost has not been impacted severely on this ground. Furthermore, once we have the reduction plan, which we already done it and more in the pipeline, furthermore with the improved results, I'm sure that in the next year we look forward for the upgradation in our overall rating and more stable on the long-term perspective.
Got it. Thanks a lot, Mrs. T.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Niharika Karnani from CapGrow Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yeah. Go ahead. Yeah.
Hello. Am I audible?
Yeah. Yeah. She's good. We can hear you. Yeah. Yeah.
So yeah, just had a couple of questions on the numbers. So we understand that there has been a value degrowth this quarter compared to volume growth of 13%. And market share has been around 38%, which was there in last quarter, as far as I remember, which was around 200 basis points dipped from 40%. So I mean, I know we are moving towards premiumization, but that has been the talk for last two quarters. When would it start getting reflected in the numbers is the question that I would go for because I mean, not much major improvement has been witnessed in the last couple of quarters. I would say that you are saying that because today the numbers are having a liquidation impact.
As soon as I remove the liquidation impact, which is maybe from a quarter end from now, so maybe first quarter of next year is when you will see a meaningful difference or improvement. When the gross margin goes above 50%. Gross margin, yeah. Today it is at 47%. Usually before 50%, once this liquidation piece gets reduced. And that is when the impact of premiumization will come. If you go to our store, please visit, you will know that a lot of premium products have been launched, but that is not visible because of this liquidation, which is a continuous hangover on us, which should get over maybe in the next 3-4 months. Just one follow-up question on this. So, as discussed today, we'll be sitting on inventory of around INR 500-550 crores even at Q2. So just wanted to speak on liquidation.
So from the current levels of INR 693 crores of inventory to INR 550 crores of inventory in quarter two. So liquidation will continue beyond Q2 as well? Or do you foresee post Q4? INR 550 crore is a normal inventory which as an organization we will always have. What we are talking about liquidation is only extended to mostly quarter four, a little bit maybe in the April month. However, for April, May, June, which is our largest quarter, we are getting ready. And therefore 31st March, we are guiding for no reduction in inventory. However, the composition of inventory will be good inventory versus bad inventory. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So that means.
Just add on what MD said. You have to keep in mind that quarter two again will be an e-com driven quarter, so some level of inventory 550 when we are talking about is keeping in mind the e-com seasonality. Given a choice to us and as we are planning today, the average inventory level should fall down to a 465 to 480 level as we come out from both the season of quarter one and quarter two.
Understood. Understood. And one last question. So we were speaking about facing intense competition in both e-commerce, modern retail space. So apart from new launches, what steps I mean, are we taking to counter this competition and again regain market share of 40%, which is the ideal market share?
So I actually answered this in my earlier. Somebody had asked. Each channel we are looking at various initiatives. For example, in e-commerce, we are looking at how can we increase our share on marketplace and quick commerce. In case of retail, how can we increase our same store sales growth plus add more stores like I spoke about Carlton, exclusive stores, additional 25 to be opened in next six months. In case of general trade, we will be looking at expanding the doors. In case of institution, we'll be looking at adding more corporates into the fold.
So each channel we have a strategy to expand, and that is where it will help.
Okay. Understood. Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Jigar Jani from B&K Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for taking my question and congratulations on a good set of numbers to both of you. So on inventory, out of the INR 692 crores inventory, I believe last quarter we had said that INR 180 odd crores is the soft luggage inventory upright, which is slow moving. This number should be around INR 100 crores now. Is that a fair assumption?
INR 25,200 crores. Absolutely correct.
And this should ideally, given your run rate, run down by Q4 and probably some part of 1Q.
Yes. That's what I said. Partly maybe April.
Okay. Understood. And the remaining is HL, right? I mean, there is no or.
There is an HL, there is a duffel, there is a backpack, which is a normal inventory, which is organized, too. So 90 days inventory is something which we'll always have for our kind of businesses.
Understood. And ma'am, last time you had mentioned 55% gross margin you are targeting for FY 2026. Would it be fair to say it will be more an exit quarter guidance for Q4?
I'm not guided for 55%. I'm guided for always 50% and 50% for exit quarter and then 52%-53% in FY 2026. 55%, it can never go because our mix has now changed permanently. Aristocrat is not going to go away. Only 2-3% mix can change. So therefore 55% is a dream. 52% is something where best case scenario in FY 2026, and exit quarter, I'm guided for 50%, which I'm still guiding for.
FY 26 average, we should be able to do 52-50 for the full year.
Yeah. Correct.
Okay. Understood, and ma'am.
Starting with 50 and going upward, right? It will be like.
Yeah. Yeah. It will be a gradual upward.
Yes.
Yeah. And lastly on this e-commerce thing, I think last quarter you had highlighted that you are entering into agreement with the e-commerce portals to not sell VIP and Skybags beyond certain price. That is in place now?
That is in place for VIP. So if you see VIP, it is sold at a MOP, which is the minimum price at which they cannot sell below that. So it's an MOP now for any product of VIP across all the channels. There is no discounting.
Right. And have peers also kind of adopted this strategy or they are still okay with the e-commerce for this?
No.
Okay. Okay.
Uncomfortable.
Okay. Okay. Understood. Thank you so much for answering my questions and that's all.
Thank you. We'll take a next question from the line of Prerna Jhunjhunwala from Elara Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you for the opportunity. I just wanted to understand the revenue forecasting methodology that was also a part of BCG KRA. So I wanted to understand how it is improving the inventory position for you and the overall sales forecasting, how it has changed as an organization?
So it is a continuous process. We have put up some mechanism, also use of technology whereby for A class, we are moving into a replenishment model versus B and C, which will get into forecasting. Because one thing we have realized that before four months, it is very difficult to forecast something which is now more fashionable rather than convenient. So our industry is becoming more fashionable and priorities are changing. And therefore we are following now A class replenishment, B and C will be forecasting. So yeah, fill rates have improved by 15%-20% in the last six months. It is further slated to improve as we move along.
And just to add what MD said, just to clarify, revenue fixation target was never a part of the BCG exercise, more driven by the industry and our own aspiration to go.
Oh, okay. Okay. So my apologies over there. Just wanted to also understand that eventually can the inventory days that you mentioned right now that we should be four months and three months inventory we should keep, can with more India operations and more sales coming from India manufacturing, this number of days can reduce further? Can that happen?
We want to reduce it to 75, but first half's reached 90, and then definitely aspiration is to be at 75 days.
Okay. Understood, ma'am. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Karan from Keynote Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. The first question is on if you can share, are you seeing any meaningful shifts in consumer preference shifting towards offline channels and mid-premium segment? If you can give some on-ground insights.
So basically, online share in our industry is actually increasing. However, we'll have to do something different to bring customers to our store. And few of the strategies where we are following this is that some of the products exclusively available only in our store, only in offline. Online it is not available. And few of such things. But there is a set of customers who will always touch and feel before buying. But consumer preference definitely is moving towards online more. People maybe sitting at home with their convenience, they just want to buy, and there is an option to return as well. So call for three, keep one, return two. I think that's where it's happening. But we'll have to do meaningful changes to bring customers to our store, which is what we will be doing, exclusive products available only at VIP Lounges and so on.
Understood, and second, and my last question is on the current competition landscape. If you can give in terms of categories like soft luggage and hard luggage, what is the current competitive landscape?
So basically, I would say that soft luggage, we do not have much competition as such. However, soft luggage demand per se has fallen. But hard luggage, definitely there's an intense competition from not only top organized players, but there are new D2C players who have come into the market in hard luggage. And in fact, I believe that every six months there is one new player entering into this market, but which also gives us a confidence that the market is doing well and therefore so many entrants. So if we do right things, I think we can definitely do better.
Understood. Thank you. That was it from me.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Varun Singh from AAA PMS. Please go ahead.
Am I audible?
Yes. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Yeah. Sure. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question, Neetu, is given that e-commerce and hard luggage, so these are the two maybe sunrise channel and segment. So with regards to the growth drivers, because as you rightly pointed out that in e-commerce space, it's all about pop color design and the price and maybe the customer reviews, etc., which customers are browsing at the convenience of their home. So as a category leader, what are the incremental hard work that we are doing to maybe tap on this growth opportunity? Because when I see over the last six months, maybe data, etc., whatever is publicly available on Amazon, Flipkart, etc., maybe I would have missed figuring out the extra work that we are doing. So if you can highlight some bit on that part.
Actually, your voice was very, very feeble. Some disturbance. But whatever I understood, your question is that what are we doing differently to compete with the players in the online market, right?
I mean, not just differently in terms of what are the growth drivers that we are tapping on these two on e-commerce platform and the hard luggage segment. What are the incremental?
We are working on a better portfolio, giving a better product to the consumer. Also, VIP is known for its product durability and reliability, right? Today also, Aristocrat has a warranty of seven years. The other competition is at three years. We are at seven and five, depending on the model. So basically, giving a better looking product with better quality is something which is a forte, and we will be communicating this more and more to succeed, and if you see our product portfolio, I think we have done good work, and it is actually better than competition today as we speak.
Yes. That's correct. Why I was asking this question is because on the e-commerce channel platform itself, it becomes tough for a customer to objectively conclude that which product's quality is how much superior other than whatever customer review rating they could just have a look upon. So given that price becomes so much a sensitivity variable in customers' decision-making framework, I mean, don't you think that it is counterintuitive when we say that on VIP, we will not be selling at a maybe selling at a lower price, at the same time trying to premiumize the entire portfolio whereas the customers don't want to premiumize. They want to go down the value chain, looking for just design and price and keep switching the.
It's a synergistic story. We will have to live with it and deal with it as it comes. The good part is that we have four brands to play with. And therefore, I need to, see, for us, offline is the largest portion of our business today also. Unlike some of the people who have only online business, some of the people have 60% plus business coming from online. And therefore, I have to protect my offline. This is the reason why one brand I am keeping away from steep pricing. That helps my offline channel to grow because offline is 70% of my business. And I can play a similar thing with Skybags because Skybags is also premium. Carlton is one which I have. So that is the reason why from online, I am not removing VIP. I'm only saying VIP will not go below a particular price.
That is to safeguard my offline business. Few things which actually I'm doing to safeguard my offline businesses, I can tell you. So I have started a loyalty program. I've also started a buyback program for offline customers. I've also started extra warranty if they buy offline. So in fact, I'm doing the other way. I want my offline business to also grow along with online.
Fantastic. And my second question is on the BCG 15-month project part. So as over last call, you highlighted that in five ways, I mean, this is a five-wave project. And from the October month itself, we should start seeing the benefits. And maybe by the end of fourth quarter, the result of the third wave will be visible. Maybe that is what you are pointing out with regards to gross margin benefit expansion. But do you think that 250-crore bottom line improvement that you said, that is likely to take more time compared to the 15-month project time, which the guideline which was given earlier? Anything you want to call out on that part?
It's a 250-crore addition to the bottom line when we say it's a full year impact, right? Now, each wave will have something which will add to quarter two, then something to quarter three, something to quarter four. So this 15-month project is getting over only in the next year. And therefore, some benefits will definitely be in the next year. And that is where I said that we have a potential to go up to 18% EBITDA. However, I want to spend 2-3% more on the brand. And therefore, I'm happy to have a 15% EBITDA overall for the organization.
Understood. Understood, ma'am.
So I'm still holding on.
Sure. And just one last question, if I may. When is this hyper-discount kind of situation going to normalize as per your honest assessment in the hard luggage space itself?
It's difficult to comment on that because we are not seeing competition coming down or making any efforts in that direction. However, if the growth price goes up, that is when things can change. But that is also not something which is on the cards or visible immediately.
But what we can foresee over there is such kind of substantial reduction what we have seen the last 15 months.
It's bottomed out now.
Understood. Understood. Okay. Thank you very much, madam.
Okay. Maybe this is the new normal.
Sure. Sure. Understood. Thank you very much, and wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, we'd like to remind participants to press star and one to ask a question. Next question is from the line of C.A. Garvit Goyal from Invest Analytics Advisory LLP. Please go ahead.
My question is already answered. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. Next question is from the line of Akhil Gulecha from Hornbill Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, ma'am. So actually, I'm new to the industry. So pardon me if my question is a little generic, but I wanted to understand what is actually happening in the industry. Why are the incumbents struggling with growth as well as margin pressure? Because travel, by all other indicators, is doing very well, and it is growing. So what is happening? Is it that the whole market is struggling? Is it that it's a challenge because of the incumbents? Just what is happening in this industry?
So multiple things. One good part is that demand indicators are good. Travel is happening. It's actually the industry which is still doing better than all the other industries. What is happening is a lot of new entrants into the market. Now, why new entrants were not there earlier and why they are coming now? In the past, a lot of these luggage, like 50%-60%, used to be soft luggage versus today it is becoming hard luggage. Hard luggage is actually easier to produce versus soft luggage. Soft luggage needs a lot of craftsmanship. And whereas hard luggage, it's a machine-driven injection molding machine if somebody has, they can definitely look at producing this. Since this market is doing well, a lot of the entrants are entering.
Also, a lot of these garment industry, actually, if you go to the market, you'll see that everybody is starting with luggage. And that is where the competition, that is where the pricing pressure. In soft luggage, our opening price point never fell below INR 2,500. Whereas in hard luggage, now we also have a product at INR 1,399 and INR 1,499. And consumer preference, consumer is habituated now to buy something cheaper, more colorful, more good-looking. And they don't mind buying something and then changing it after a year or two. So that is another big change. In the past, the replacement cycle used to be 7-10 years. I'm talking maybe 5, 7 years ago. Then it reduced to 3-5 years. Today, as we speak, when I talk to consumers, they want to change their luggage every 1-2 years.
So that's the big change which has happened. And therefore, they want to spend less money, buy cheaper, replace it maybe almost every year. The other thing is that hard luggage will get scratches, whether it is an INR 5,000 product or it is an INR 15,000 product, because the weight is handled at the airport. Now, that also makes the consumer feel that why spend more, buy something which is reasonable, and then maybe change. So these are various factors which have changed for this industry in the last, I would say, post-COVID.
So a couple of points. So replacement cycle reducing is actually good for us, right? It's a big positive. So the other part is you said that the prices have sort of gone down. So do you think this is going to be the standard now that the margins will get reduced in this industry after whatever pre-COVID?
Yeah. It is like a new normal. However, there's a set of customers who are also wanting to premiumize and go. So we'll have to do work for those customers alongside. So today, let's assume my share of Aristocrat is in the range of 55%. Now, that is something which I need to keep intact. It should not. No. Now, I don't want this 55 to become 60 and go up from here. Sorry. 55 is mass premium. Aristocrat is around 42, 43. So I don't want Aristocrat to further move up from this 42, 43 to maybe 50. That will be our aim, which means I need to grow my other brands by doing different things. So launching something which is new for the industry. Like I'm doing a lot of work on Carlton so that my share of Carlton goes up. Today, the share of Carlton is six.
Our intent is that how can we make it 10%? That will have a meaningful difference in our profitability as well as the overall stress on the P&L.
Okay. Okay. Understood. But the 17%-18% EBITDA margins that we used to make pre-COVID, that is unlikely unless the premium segment does really, really well.
So as I said, I want to spend more on the brand. So it can become 18, but I want to spend more on the brand, and therefore, I'm okay to do 15%.
Okay.
Maybe the new normal from 15. It will be 18 will become 15.
Okay. Okay. Understood. Thank you so much, and all the best .
Thank you. We'll take a next question from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, ma'am. Couple of questions. First was on the tribunal favorable judgment that you indicated. Can you help us refresh what this was exactly pertaining to? I think it was pertaining to some transfer claims, and when do we see a cash flow impact on back of this?
There won't be any cash flow impact. So this was in the contingent liability hanging on us. At any point of time, the department would have come and said, "Pay 400 crores today." Now, that is behind us. And this was basically on stock transfer. So basically, we have paid. This was in the VAT regime, right? Yeah. It was in the VAT regime where we have paid tax in the state where we sold. However, the department said that pay on the stock at the time of stock transfer also. But then it would have meant double taxation. But yeah, there was a demand with penalty of 400 crores.
Okay. So it basically moves out of contingent liability. That's how one should read into the impact, right?
Correct. Correct. Correct.
Okay. Fine. And second is you made a very interesting point on MOP with respect to VIP and to protect the retail channel. Any particular reason on why we are doing it now and why only on VIP and why not some other brand of ours?
So basically, during the month of between September, October, when all the online trade, like online platforms, reduced the pricing to such an extent that it was unbelievable, our offline partners got offended, and they actually said that we will stop buying. Now, I had to find a strategy to see I cannot leave e-commerce because that's a growing channel. At the same time, 70% of my business is coming from offline. So I had to devise a strategy to protect both. And that is when we decided that we thought that VIP and Skybags is something which is in the premium segment, and we can think of doing MOP to protect my offline customer. And that is what we did. And why only VIP? Because I can't do it with all the others. Because if I do with all, then my online will suffer.
Online is a growing channel which I can't not cater to. This helped me to actually cater to both. This also impacted my revenue in October, November. After implementing this, actually, I got good numbers in December.
Okay. So ma'am, VIP is around 25% of our revenues. What part of VIP will be ex-e-com?
E-commerce was a small portion. Overall e-commerce, it was 10% and therefore, sacrificing that was easy versus sacrificing the offline.
Okay. That's helpful. And ma'am, just for the sake of reputation, I think discounting has been pretty hefty in the marketplace. Would it be possible for you to give some sense on who's driving it and who's following it? So there are several D2C players, obviously, who are very aggressive in the marketplace. We also want to liquidate our inventory.
Yeah. We are doing it only in soft luggage. Okay? We are not doing deep discounting in anything other than soft luggage. However, the online platforms like Flipkart and Amazon of the world, they are doing discount. In fact, some of the time, sometimes they are selling below their purchase price. So that is the big problem. And they are investing in the brand and not us. But yeah, I think it has come down because they also have pressure on profitability now.
Sure. And ma'am, lastly, you have indicated how the inventory will actually move into March into June. How are we looking at our production scheduling as we go into March into June?
Means production scheduling.
Obviously, it will be aligned with the requirement. This is nothing which is coming up. So our production will be slightly higher in a part of both Bangladesh and our India country.
Okay. Fine, and last question, general questions.
And your question. So what do you want to know?
Ma'am, basically, we indicated that we'll reduce our inventory as we go into March and into June. So obviously, we have optionality.
We said we'll increase. 692 will become 720, and then June, it will reduce to 550. This is what we said.
Sure. That's helpful. And sorry, ma'am.
So I think quarter one is a big quarter, and we are getting ready for it. Therefore, it will increase now. The only difference will be that the inventory composition will be new inventory and not liquidation inventory.
Sure. And ma'am, lastly, any numbers that you would like to qualify on general expansion, EBO, MBO, where we are right now, and where do we intend to be? You said 12 months, 24 months out?
We want to increase by 50 stores in the next 12 months. We'll be focusing mostly on the top 20 cities to start with.
Ma'am, what's the count right now?
410.
410. Okay. That's useful. Thank you so much and all the very best, ma'am.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Manish Desai from VIP Industries Limited for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. So thanks to all of you for attending the call. Hope we have answered all your questions. If anything still remains unanswered, we are just a phone call away. Thank you and wish all of you a good day. Bye.
Thank you. On behalf of VIP Industries Limited, that concludes this conference. Thanks for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line.