Hi, good evening, everyone. This is Nitin Gupta from Emkay Global. I'd like to welcome all to Berger Paints India Ltd's Q4 FY25 results conference call. I thank Berger Paints Management for allowing us to host. We have with us today Mr. Abhijit Roy, Managing Director and CEO, Mr. Kaushik Ghosh, CFO, Mr. Sujyoti Mukherjee, Vice President Finance and Accounts, and Senthan Salkar, GM Finance and Accounts. I shall now hand over the call to the management for the opening remarks, post which we will proceed with the Q&A session. Over to you, Abhijit.
Thank you, Nitin, and good evening to all of you. Let me begin with the presentation quickly, and then we can go to the question and answer. Quarter Four highlights: we finished reasonably strong in Quarter Four, powered by growth in volume, value, and as well improved market share. Volume grew by 7.4%. Revenue from operations increased by 4.4%. We gained market share, and we estimate that it will be in excess of 20%, reflecting resilient competitive positioning. This in spite of the increased competition, and even if we take Birla Opus into account, we have gained market share this year. Operating profit rose by 19.8%, and operating margin improved sequentially as well. If we look at the decorative segment, it delivered high single-digit volume growth, with sequential improvement in value supported by an improved product mix and marginal impact of price increase.
Construction chemicals and waterproofing continued to outperform, maintaining strong traction across key markets. Protective coatings sustained positive momentum throughout the quarter, reflecting consistent demand. Automotive coatings registered stable growth, driven by favorable demand conditions and industry tailwinds. General industrial and powder growth was muted. As I mentioned, we have been consistently gaining market share. In financial year 2022, we are at 18.9. It improved to 19.3, then to 19.5, and this year we have seen the highest increase, going up to 20.3%. These market share estimates are based on results declared by listed major paint companies and an estimated result of AXO and Indigo. These are the listed companies which are there in the space. Computation pertains to Berger Paints India operations. If we look at the gross margin trend, we have been more or less in that 39%-40% level.
In this particular quarter, we had the highest, in fact, in terms of quarter figure, is 41.2%. This gross margin improvement was sustained on the basis of a little bit of mix improvement, some price increase which we took earlier quarter, and raw material price drop, which is the bigger portion of it. In operating profit margin, there was a robust operating profit growth of 19.8%, again supported by gross margin expansion which we saw just now, led by favorable raw material trends and improved product mix and marginal increase in prices. Also, along with it, reduction in overheads through effective cost control initiatives. In terms of operating profit margin, again, we have always indicated that we would be in that band of 15%-17%.
We have consistently been performing in that level, and we have been on the higher side of that 15%-17% band. In spite of intense competition in the marketplace, we have managed to improve operating profit ratio from 16.2% in last quarter to 16.6% this quarter. If we look at the figures, total income from operations growth was 4.4%, operating profit growth, PBT growth 19.8%, PBT growth 29.2%, PAT growth 30.5%. In terms of the whole year performance, standalone, we had a high single-digit volume growth. Value growth was muted despite volume momentum, impacted by full-year impact of financial year 2024 price reductions to the extent of about 4%, which we knew which was there, which got over in November-December. Softer consumer demand and traction in construction chemical space. Protecting coating segment delivered strong double-digit volume and a very strong value growth as well.
Automotive segment remained stable with healthy operating margins across the industrial portfolio. Gross margin sustained despite the full-year impact of price corrections in financial year 2024. Operating profit margins maintained at the higher end of the guided band, resilient to pricing actions, raw material fluctuations in monomers specifically, and currency volatility. Zero gross debt with further strengthening of the net cash position. Financial year standalone 2025 for the whole year performance, 1.7% growth, operating profit just above last year at around 0.1%, and PAT at 6.2% growth level. In terms of quarter four performance for the decorative business, we delivered high single-digit volume growth despite muted consumer demand and heightened competition. Value growth was supported by a richer product mix and marginal pricing gains. We sustained momentum in the exterior emulsion portfolio. Construction chemicals and waterproofing delivered another stellar quarter with roof coating products outperforming.
Wood coatings business recorded robust growth. Retail footprint expanded to 1,000 plus stores as of financial year 2024-2025, with over 550 stores added during the year. Printing machine installations exceeded 8,000 units, with 2,500 plus machines deployed in quarter four alone. We had launched some very innovative products as well, and this will be becoming very relevant in the summer season. A series of products on the cool category, Roof Cool and Seal, which is for the roof, a product called Tank Cool, a very interesting product, and then Weather Coat Anti-Dust Cool. The Tank Cool is a product which we have just introduced a month back. Typically, in summer heat, the overhead tanks become very heated, and when you try to take a bath, it is hot water which is coming right through the day. We have created one product called the Tank Cool.
It has three components in it. One is a grip primer which can adhere to any surface, plastic, metal, or concrete. On top of it is a heat reflecting coat which can be applied, which is white in color. On top of it, our R&D has devised one nano clear coat which enables the surface to remain clean and dust-free. This is to increase the efficacy of the heat reflecting power of that coating that we have applied. A combination of all these three is packed in a carton and sold as one Tank Cool unit. This is doing very well in the hot atmosphere that we have today, the temperature shooting up to 45-50 degrees. A lot of people want this type of a product, and this is another innovation from our side.
We have looked at unmet customer needs at all points of time and have tried to give those products. The same holds true for Roof Cool and Seal as well, which has been growing at a frenetic pace across the country, and we are doing quite well in this particular category as well. A combination of these three, the cool series should do well in the summer months. Also, we have been introducing a large number of stores, as I said, and these stores are coming up in both urban and also in upcountry areas as well. It has its own advantages, and we believe that the urban experiment that we had initiated a few months back is taking shape and taking shape very well, I think, and we should see more of these stores coming up in the urban markets.
Protective coatings posted steady performance, aided by improvement in infrastructure with strong operating margins. Automotive segment registered strong value and both volume and value performance, led by traction in two-wheeler segment demand. It also registered very good operating margin. General industrial and powder coating sales was muted, and we expect that also should improve going forward. In terms of the consolidated results, Bolix delivered strong top line and profitability with constant currency growth. As you can see, quarter four consolidated is higher than standalone, both in sales and operating profit growth, driven by Bolix and BJN Nepal essentially. Bolix delivered strong top line and profitability growth with constant currency growth. BJN Nepal demonstrated strong recovery across revenue and profitability, rebounding from previous weaker quarters. STP recorded muted revenue growth with improved operating performance, aided by gross margin expansion.
BNPA sustained robust revenue and profitability growth, supported by new customer acquisitions and strong demand in the automotive sector. Berger Becker closed strong revenue growth, aided by a muted base. If you look at BNPA and Berger Becker, these figures are not added to the consolidated sales. Only the profit share is added to our kitty because here we have minority stake of 49%. In terms of consolidated results, therefore for quarter four, it is a fairly decent result. Total income from operations 7.3%, operating profit growth 21.9%, PAT growth 18.1%. For the year, it is 3.1% of income from operations growth. Operating profit growth flattish at minus 0.3% and PAT growth at 1.1%. We have been driving consistent growth.
If you look at both total income from operations and PBT, which is the operating income in terms of profit, both, if you take two-year, three-year, four-year, five-year, any ratio you take, it is very consistent. For two, three, four, and five years, the operating profit growth has been in that bracket of 11.7%-11.8%. No matter what type of competition happens, what happens overall in terms of slowdown of the economy, we have been consistently growing at that 11.7%, 11.8% in terms of operating profit. Even in sales growth, it has been, if you look at the three, four-year, five-year performance, it's 9.6%, 14.1%, 12.6%. Only in two-year case, it is showing as 4.5%, and that's largely attributable to the price decrease of about 5% which happened.
Had that not happened, it would have been at that 9%-9.5% in spite of the increased competition that is going on in the marketplace. Overall, fairly consistent growth in terms of sales and operating profit. Net cash position has been improving steadily. We had run into a debt situation after the starting of the Sandila factory with a minus INR 444 crore. Subsequently, improved to cash positive at INR 331 crore and further has improved to INR 688 crore in terms of net cash. We are quite comfortable now, and as I have indicated, we will need no borrowing even for the further expansions of factories going forward. Business outlook for financial year 2026, the decorative segment is poised for an improved performance, underpinned by a rebound in urban demand, driven by higher disposable incomes from recent tax incentives and easing inflation.
Rural growth is likewise expected to sustain, supported by forecasts of an above-average monsoon. The waning impact of price decreases compared to financial year 2025 is expected to narrow the volume-value gap and therefore boost value growth compared to what was happening in the previous two years. Protective coating business is expected to improve with increased government CapEx spending likely. Spillover effects from recent geopolitical events on India's border, trade tensions, currency volatilities remain a concern. That's all that I had to share with you for the quarter four and the annual results. It's up to you now to ask questions. Thank you.
Thanks, Abhijit. We will now start with Q&A session. I hand over the call to my colleague Bhavik to moderate the Q&A session. Over to you, Bhavik.
Those of you who have any questions can raise your hands now. You can announce your name and unmute your line. Please highlight your full name and the organization you represent. We'll wait for a second. The first question is from the line of Mihir Shah. Please go ahead. Mihir, please highlight your organization name also.
Hi, good evening. This is Mihir Shah from Nomura. Thank you for taking my question. Congrats on a great set of numbers. Firstly, on the volume growth, your volume growth has been higher versus other listed players since past few quarters. What would you attribute this differential or increase in differential growth to? Is it coming from new geographies that you have entered in the recent years with the retail footprint expansion, or is it from your core markets are seeing better growth versus the core markets of the other listed players are seeing a little lower growth?
A subpart of the question is, do you see volumes coming back to double-digit growth in FY26?
Right. Good evening, Mihir. Thank you for that question. This volume growth is coming on account of two, three factors. One, of course, is the core category is doing okay-ish. I won't say it's growing very fast. As is the case, as you know, the economy is not growing all that great, at least the consumption part of the economy. We are also in the same boat. However, we have got our own growth opportunities there, both in terms of some of the product categories and also some of the areas and geographies where we are focused on. The urban areas are doing relatively better for us compared to others, possibly.
We are also doing well in some of the product categories, which I mentioned, including construction chemicals and waterproofing, wood coatings as well. Overall, as a combination of these factors, all of this put together, our volume growth has been, as you have seen, better than the industry average, definitely far higher than that. Whether we will reach double-digit or not, time will say. It is difficult to commit on that, but we aspire to move in that direction. We are already at about 7.5%-8%. Going towards double-digit is not that difficult if the conditions do not deteriorate. We should be able to go in that direction.
Got it. Thank you. My second question is on the subsidiaries. There is a sharp improvement in the subsidiary performance these past two quarters.
Except for, I think, STP, it seems that you are seeing strong growth across all subs. Just wanted to understand what is driving this sharp growth. Is the growth rate similar across subs, or is it more a function of turnaround of Nepal that had seen a decline earlier? What is the level of growth that one should expect for FY26 for the subs overall?
Right. I think there are two things which have happened majorly. One is, of course, the Polish division, which has been doing relatively better. That is largely because of this energy conservation in which it is basically placed, and that is the main category of product in which it operates. That has gained traction quite a lot with the energy prices going up after the Russia-Ukraine war.
Hence, both in Poland and in the U.K., where we have a subsidiary, and even now in France, we are doing quite well in that category. That is one part of the story which I think will carry on this year as well. The other part is Nepal, as you rightly mentioned. It had a disastrous run and a low base last year. It is continuing to grow, and it will continue to do that right up to the third quarter of this year, where the growth rates will be quite substantial because the bases are muted. There is a third thing which is there, which is a small operation now, but we are doing quite well, which is the auto refinish category, where we have a joint venture with Rock Paints of Japan, which is growing quite rapidly as far as that particular category is concerned.
Got it. Understood. So one more question on employee cost. In FY26, if I recall, you had increased feet on the street, and that was driving higher employee cost, and they were growing at about 15% growth rate quarter after quarter. Should we think that the employee cost or the number of employees or feet on the street is now constant and growth will normalize, or the employee cost growth will normalize back to 8%-10% levels, or do you foresee continuation of addition of feet on the street, and one should expect employee cost to grow again at 15% rate?
No, I think it will not come to 9%-10%. It will still be elevated a little bit because we are adding manpower, and feet on the street will be necessary given the current context of intensification of competition. That is even more necessary at this stage.
It will be at around the 12%, 13%, probably around the 13% level rather than the 15% level that you have been seeing. Small correction will happen, but it will not go down to the 10% level.
Got it. I have a few more, but I will come back in the queue. Thank you very much.
Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anil Rajoshi.
Hello.
Hello.
Yeah. Thanks. Thanks for the opportunity and congrats for a really great set of numbers. In terms of market share, if you can share more color in terms of because we have seen Birla Opus is getting a good amount of exit market share at least.
Whether the trend is similar for us, means in a way, like the 20% market share that you have indicated in FY25, is it the same way, let's say, in March quarter or even exit market share also? That is question number one. Secondly, is the market share gain across the regions? Because in urban markets, we have increased the feet on the street, and in a way, we are doing more efforts. Is there a higher market share and market share gain, and what would be the current market share in urban markets at this stage? Lastly, the third question, in terms of the guidance with correction in crude oil price and in a way, where do you see the EBITDA margin in a way panning in FY26? Also, there is possibility of price cuts with such steep correction in crude.
Do you see revenue growth? Means in a way, where do you see the revenue growth number, high single digit or low double-digit types? Yeah, that's the question from my side.
Right. You asked many questions. Let me answer one by one. First one is on market share. The market share figures that I shared with you is primarily with the listed players. That does not include Birla's share in it. However, if we do include and we have a good assumption of what the sales figure is, because they are not themselves giving the sales figures, so it's difficult, but we have a fairly strong assumption of the figure which is there. Based on that, we have still gained market share, even if we add Birla into the market share calculation. It is true that their exit share has moved up further.
For the year, it was much lesser, but for quarter four, it has moved up a little bit. That does not impact us in any significant way in terms of gain or loss of market share. From our side, we have continued to gain, as I said. If you look at the listed players, we have definitely gained, and those figures are available, and you can calculate and you can understand that this gain has been achieved. As far as the unlisted players are concerned, it is a conjecture. As I said, we have strong estimates of it, and we believe that even with that, we have still gained market share. To answer your first question, the second question is related to whether there is a price decrease. You asked possibility.
I don't see that happening because there are a lot of, it's not only the crude oil which determines the fate of the paint prices. There is rutile, the prices of which are likely to move up because there's an anti-dumping duty which has been applied by the government, and that's going to increase the prices of rutile and will have an impact on, therefore, the raw material cost. Therefore, I don't see the possibility of a drop in prices happening in the near future at all. This is as far as the second question is concerned. You asked one more question. I can't recall now.
In terms of margin and secondly, the market share gains in urban market versus rural market?
Yeah. It has been a proportionate gain.
I think I don't think we have, as I indicated to someone, Mihir, who asked the question earlier, certain areas we have grown faster, and therefore, it's a mixed bag, sort of. In urban areas, in some of the urban areas, we have done better. In some of the product categories, we have done better. It has helped us to gain market share on a combination of two or three factors, essentially.
Okay. Lastly, the guidance in terms of where do we see FY 2026 revenue growth as well as margins?
Margin, we have always indicated the band will be maintained at the 15%-17%. We have been operating more towards the 17%. I think we should be able to hold on to these margins. That is something which is definitely there. As far as the revenue growth is concerned, we hope to improve from current levels.
First quarter will be, as we have been improving right through from second quarter to third quarter, we moved up. From third to fourth, we moved up further. We expect that in the first quarter, we'll move up a bit more, and second quarter will be even higher, and third will be even higher than that. By the end of the year, we should be more comfortable as far as the yearly performance is concerned than what we did this year.
Okay. Sure, sir. Very last question from my side. If you can indicate what was the anti-dumping duty on rutile, and is it already in place? And is there any?
It is already in place, though there is the Indian Paint Association, which is a body of all the paint companies, fighting a case in the high court. We hope that we win that case, but government has already imposed, and it is already in place. Okay.
And since when it was imposed and quantum, if any?
It was imposed, I think, about a few days back, maybe 15-20 days back. It became implemented from, I think, and the impact for us will be in the range of about for the year, if this holds, about INR 15 crore-INR 20 crore.
Oh. Okay. Okay. Got it. No, no, sir. Thanks. This is very helpful.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Karthik Chellappa. Karthik, please highlight your organization name and go ahead. Yeah.
Hi. Good evening, sir. This is Karthik from Indus Capital. Am I audible?
Yes, you are.
Okay. Great. Congrats on the quarter, sir. I have three questions. The first one is, on a standalone basis, if I were to look at, let's say, your other expenses this quarter, that's actually down year on year. Now, despite the competitive intensity actually being quite high and you actually gaining some gross margin leverage, it's surprising to see that the other expenses are down. Could you give some color on what are the items that have experienced a decline, and how has your advertisement and promotion expenses panned out this quarter? That's my first question.
Yeah. So the primary reason for what you see as other expenses going down, last year, if you recall, the Sandila plant had become operational. We incurred a lot of cost there towards the fourth quarter. But the sales production was not there. It was operating at below normal efficiency to the extent of about maybe 25% of the capacity.
Now it has gone up to about 60%, 65%, 70% plus. Therefore, the utility of that plant has gone up, and therefore, the efficiency and the savings, therefore, arising out of it. The second, therefore, the manufacturing cost has actually gone down for us compared to last year. The advertising and promotion we have held at last year levels, we have not reduced or we have not increased substantially either. When we say A&P levels, is it as a percentage of revenue, or is it absolute terms? Revenue has not grown so substantially, so it is more or less similar in nature.
Okay. Great. My second question, sir, is if we look at our margin performance, which has actually been quite commendable, if I were to just look at our cash flow, on a standalone basis, our operating cash flow is still down double digit. In fact, the second half was probably down even more than the first half. If I just scroll through the items, I think the biggest delta is basically coming from inventory. There has been almost an INR 3.00 billion delta on working capital pertaining to inventory. Is it a case that you have done a lot more pre-buying given the crude oil deflation that you saw during the quarter, which actually helped the gross margin, but in turn, impacted your cash flow from operations? Is that how I should read it?
Karthik, you are right. We did purchase certain items like rutile. We knew that the anti-dumping duty was coming in. We purchased some extra rutile. Similarly, in monomers also, we had got some very good rates at the end of the quarter, and we purchased some extra monomers.
We keep doing this exercise from our supply chain side. When we feel that the conditions are ripe and the prices are likely to move up, we do some strategic buying. As a result of that, there has been a substantial increase in raw material inventory buildup, which you will see in our case.
Excellent. My last question, sir, is on the market share data. I'm just curious to see what assumptions have you used for your market share calculation for Birla Opus for the quarter and the year, if you can share that. Related to that, and I think this was asked in the last quarter as well, just wanted to see whether there were any incremental thoughts. Now, Birla Opus will probably start operationalizing their plants in the east in FY26, which is basically our catchment.
Given that there is likely to be some initial level of aggression from their side in our catchments in the east, should we expect that our market share gains, at least in FY26, might be slower than what we saw in FY25, just given the base effect that they are starting off on a low base?
See, Birla Opus, our reading of the situation is that they have ended the year at around INR 2,000-2,100 crore net sales basis. This is what they would have probably done. First two quarters were relatively slow, and then they moved up from the third and then to the fourth quarter. This is what they would have ended and probably incurred a similar amount of loss as well. A lot of money spent and purchased some amount of market share.
Whether that is sustainable or not has to be seen. The second part of it is related to you asked whether we will be able to manage this going forward as well. Right? That was your question.
Yes, especially when they are coming into our catchments in the east because of the market share.
Yes. In the east. That is what you said. Let me tell you that factory presence does not make any difference at all. Asian Paints, for example, does not have a single factory in the east. That does not mean that they are not present strongly in the east. Right? It has zero relevance in the paint business. Yes, you need factories, but they need not be in every region of the country. If it is there, it is good, but it does not give you any tangible major advantage as far as the market is concerned.
The second is Birla is already present in the east. They are selling. They bring their material from other locations, and there is no dearth of supply as far as supply situation is concerned. They are able to supply the market pretty well. That is not what is going to create any great impact on the ground.
Which means our level of market share gain that we are expecting is something which we can expect to sustain even in 2026. That is our base case.
Well. See, from the organized listed players, we should be able to hold and gain as we have been doing in the past 0.3-0.4%. This year has been an aberration, where we gained much more, but I do not think that will continue every year.
We should be able to hold and gain a little bit from the organized players who are there in the listed space. As far as if you add up Birla, what will happen? Only time will say. I think we should be able to hold on to the current market share levels.
Excellent. Thank you, sir. Thank you for these detailed responses, and wish you and your team all the very best for FY26.
Thank you, Karthik.
The next question is from the line of Amit Purohit. Amit, please highlight your organization name and go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I'm Amit Purohit from Elara Capital. Sir, first on the industry growth for Q4, what is your sense of what would be the industry growth for Q4?
You have seen already the figures announced, right? Industry is dominated by the leader, which is Asian Paints. You've seen their results. Yeah. You have seen Kansai also, and now you have seen our results. These are the three major companies which have already declared their results. Industry growth, you can estimate yourself. I think it will be negative overall because it swings in that direction, actually, or flattish. It should be about minus one, minus two. Compared to that, we have done relatively better.
Sure. Is that trend has improved as we look at April or May? I mean, last year, there is a high base in terms of volumes and all. I'm just trying to understand Q1 numbers.
May is still too early, and April has gone by. We had a fairly decent April. It has not deteriorated. It has not improved any substantially. It's more or less on similar lines.
This is you're saying for the industry or you're saying for yourself?
For us. I don't know for the industry. I don't know who else is doing what. As far as we are concerned, this is what it is.
Sure. Sir, on the subsidiary part, while you clearly highlighted on the revenue side, on the margin side, I just wanted to understand. Last year, if I look at your performance, we had Bolix couple of quarters where the performance got impacted in terms of the operating margins. That impacted our, so I just consolidate my standalone. If I do the last FY25, it is coming to 13.2% EBITDA margin versus FY24 was an all-time high at about 16% EBITDA margins. Now that the Bolix issue or the one-off one-time cost may not be there, is it a fair assumption to assume that things should normalize to have a better margin outlook in the subsidiary portfolio because even Nepal is doing well now?
Yes. I think so. You can assume that it will be better than what we have been seeing. Therefore, these margins that we have demonstrated this quarter should be holding for the next few quarters.
Yeah. On a consolidated basis then, sir, in a scenario where we are looking at stable margins as far as India performs or the standalone business is concerned, and a marginal consistent improvement in subsidiary performance over the next two to three years, then overall margins outlook seems to be an improving outlook, right, for us? Yeah.
Marginal improvement will be there because the subsidiaries contribute very little, 10% approximately. Growth won't be too much. There will be some marginal improvement. It's an India story which is very important. We are hoping that we should be able to hold on and improve marginally on the margins here in India.
I'm sorry to repeat, just to understand FY26 outlook for the subsidiary business, is it fair to assume that we can come back to FY24 levels, which was a 16% margin, or should we say that that was a kind of, there was some one-off? I'm not able to recollect what was FY24, which I understand.
You should go by current quarter margins, and it should be very similar to that going forward.
Even the subsidiaries?
Even the subsidiaries, yes.
That has a seasonality, right? Q4 is always the lowest.
Yeah. That seasonality will hold true. Q4 in Poland, for example, the Bolix subsidiary tends to do relatively lower, and then it bounces back later on. It varies from quarter to quarter, but overall, on the yearly basis, it will be on a similar trend.
Sure. Sir, just on your CapEx guidance, what would be the CapEx for FY 2026 and FY 2027?
CapEx, we have already indicated. In this year, CapEx 2026, basically, the Hindupur plant is coming up, which is an expansion there for the solvent base. That is about INR 250 crore. Then we will initiate our Panagar operation, which is a total cost of about INR 500 crore, but the initial first year possibly will be INR 150 crore. That is all that is there of the greenfield ventures. The rest, small issues of small regular CapEx, will continue as per normal requirements. That is not substantial.
This is for FY26, so close to about INR 400 crore?
Next year will be on similar lines. The Hindupur will not be there, so only the Panagar second part will come in. Again, around INR 250-300 crore possibly will be spent. Nothing substantial again the year after.
Okay. Lastly, sir, have you changed the Berger exclusive store branding? I mean, Color and Style versus the earlier one used to be Paint Studio Berger.
Yeah. We have two versions. One is called Paint Studio. The other is called Color and Style. Paint Studio is a bigger store with more expensive, more decor elements are much more. The Color and Style is the moderate one. These are the two variants which are there, but not that we have changed the name.
Okay. Thank you. Thanks.
The next question is from the line of Mirunmay. Mirunmay, please highlight your organization name and go ahead.
Hello?
Yeah, Mirunmay.
Hello. Yeah. Hi. Hi, sir. Sir, this is Mirunmay from Asit Mehta. Congratulations on a good set of numbers. Sir, my first question was that you indicated that you would see sequential improvement going ahead during this year. Do you expect that to come in more from the volume side, or volumes will likely remain stable and the gap between volume and value will reduce sequentially?
There will be a volume improvement as well. The value improvement from compared to last year will be more because of the volume-value gap reducing, as you are aware that this 4.5% gap, which we were suffering from the whole of last year till the third quarter end, will not be there anymore.
Okay. Sir, we are hearing reports that monsoon is expected to be slightly earlier this year. Are you expecting some kind of pressure in Q1 because of that?
We do not know. It depends. Monsoon hits typically around the 25th of May in Kerala and then progresses upwards. We expect that so far, whatever has been indicated, it probably might get preponed by five days. It may put a little bit of pressure in those markets where it gets entry into first, like Kerala or the coastal belt of the West Coast and the East Coast, down in south and west, but not significantly, I would say, change the scenario.
Okay. Okay. Okay. Sir, in terms of the gross margin, this time around, you have mentioned that you have seen the benefit of lower input cost. Is that largely factored into this quarter and maybe next quarter onwards, it will not be an incremental benefit?
Very unlikely. We probably will be holding. As you have seen, for the last eight, ten quarters, we have been around the same points of around 40%. This quarter was slightly ahead of that. We will probably remain at similar levels in that range of 40-41%. No major change is expected.
Okay. Perfect. Sir, lastly, on the industrial side, you have been mentioning tepid performance in the powder and general industrial coatings. Any specific reason why these two segments are not doing as well?
The industries itself are to where they serve because this is closely linked to the categories of industries where they supply their material. It is the B2B category, as you know. Some of these categories have not been doing very well. As a result, there is a demand shrinkage, which has happened, and hence, it's not growing at the pace at which we would love it to grow.
Okay. Okay. All right, sir. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Harsh Shah. Harsh, please highlight your organization name and go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Good evening. Thanks for taking my question. This is Harsh from Marzban Mutual Fund. Sir, just a few questions. One is that this printing machine edition, which we see this year, it's 8,000 printing machine editions were basically compared to retail footprint edition of 1,000 stores. I mean, this is probably the high number which we've seen in the past many years. Could you help me explain which geography, let's say, which areas where we've done this high printing machine editions?
I mean, any particular geography or area you want to call out? It is spread across the entire country. What we do typically every year, we do an exercise whereby we identify pin code-wise where are the gaps which we have in terms of cluster sales. We divide the country into various clusters depending on every pin code. Then look at it, where is our share, what is our fair share which we should have, and therefore, how many machines should we be adding in that market, considering the fact that average this many machines, machine productivity is this much. How many machines do we need to reach our target of market share? Considering that, we have a target assigned to each of our people, and based on that, they go and install machines.
It's a sort of areas where we don't have presence as of now. There is no point going and plonking machines in areas where we are already present strongly because that will only eat into your existing dealer share and doesn't add up to the value kitty, actually. That's what we do. It's spread across the country.
Let's say, would this be more in metro than tier one? I mean.
Let's say if I would. Metro is actually you don't need too many machines. It is more in the upcountry areas where you need. Metro markets are typically oriented towards big dealers. The big dealers contribute most of the sale. It's not as if by spreading the machines all over the metro, you're going to get anything out of it. There it is a big dealer game.
It is mostly upcountry where you need more stronger distribution. Okay. And sir, was this a, I mean, one-year kind of an exercise, or do you expect this kind of aggressive expansion continuing?
It will continue and get accelerated. We have a lot more space, which are open spaces, as we call white spaces, and therefore, this is going to accelerate further.
These are the outlets where we are the second player? I mean.
Not necessarily. It can be fresh outlets, or it can be second-player outlets, or maybe even third-player outlets. It depends on the situation.
Okay. Okay. Got it. And then secondly, you mentioned that there are product categories which have done very well for us. And even you have called out waterproofing and construction chemicals. But any other product categories which you would want to call out, especially in the interior-exterior decorative side of things?
Yeah. So I mentioned three, actually. Exterior waterproofing. Roof coating as well, you mentioned. Exterior emulsions where we did very well. I mentioned about waterproofing and construction chemicals in which roof coating falls. So that's done well. And wood coatings, we have grown quite well in the decorative space. So all these three categories where we did fairly well. There was muted growth in the economic categories, which are basically the low-end primers and low-end emulsions. That's where many of the new entrants, they have been giving absurd prices, and sometimes that has impacted the growth rate to some extent.
Okay. And what would be our share from construction chemicals in waterproofing now in terms of decorative revenue?
About 10% odd, which carries on growing, actually, every year.
Got it, sir. Let's say, sir, if you were to dissect this year's growth between projects segment and the other, I mean, the retail business, I mean, how fast would the projects business have grown for us? What would be the contribution now of projects business?
Similar growth rates. No tangible great difference. Normally, the project business used to grow at slightly higher pace, 1% or 2%. Earlier, it used to grow at about 2%-3% higher than the normal growth rate of retail. Last year, it was more or less at similar levels.
Got it. What would be the saliency, sir, of project business?
Low at. I think for us, it is around 8% now, if I'm not mistaken.
Sir, are we trying to take initiatives to drive an increased saliency? Or given that, I mean, when we talk to the market leader, they talk about, I think, 15%-20% kind of saliency. I mean, are we taking any steps to drive?
Yes. The urban initiatives that we have taken, primarily, some amount of project sales will happen there because urban, as you know, largely driven by projects. Therefore, the project saliency will go up, and the growth rate in that category should move upwards if and when we start doing tangible things there in the urban markets. We are seeing already decent traction there happening. These are early days. We need to work harder, execute better to be able to grow faster there.
Okay. Okay. And sir, lastly, in terms of new products, you kind of spoke about a few new initiatives you've been taking. We've been pioneers as well in the past, right, in terms of launching new innovations here. What would be the contribution currently for us, let's say, for products which we've launched over the last three years? Currently, let's say, whatever you define as NPDs, what would be the contribution for us in FY25?
There is a significant contribution. We don't really look at it in that way because we have innovated repeatedly in the industry, and most people have copied us across these products. Whether it is Easy Clean or Anti-Dust or the waterproof putti, we came out with Express Painting. We came out with Roof Cool and Seal now. I'm sure all of these added together is a pretty substantial basket, but I can't give you the exact figure.
Okay. Okay, sir. Got it, sir. Just one last bookkeeping question, if I may. What would be the count of printing machine and our retail footprint as of March 25th?
Printing machine numbers are somewhere around 50,000 is what we have in retail. So that's the typical approximate number that I can tell you, of which we added 8,000 last year, of course.
The next question is from the line of Pratik Gothi. Pratik, please highlight your organization name and go ahead. Pratik, please unmute your line.
Yes. Can you hear me? Yes. We can. Yes. Thank you for the opportunity. This is, again, relative to the comparative intensity we are seeing. When do you see the comparative intensity coming to a level of equilibrium where the market shares are redistributed and then the industry can basically come out of this disruption?
See, the competitive intensity has been there in this industry for long years. It's not as if it hasn't been there. It has been always strong. Today, and last year, there was another player who jumped in, spent a lot of money, continues to spend a lot of money, and therefore, that has created a little bit of turbulence in the overall dynamics of the business so far that it existed. However, I do not see this immediately going away, at least for this coming year, definitely not. I think it will stabilize in two to three years' time frame. Beyond that, I do not think it is going to continue.
Got it. Okay. Just another question, please. For a paint business, at what capacity utilization does the break-even point reach, broadly speaking?
It depends on the mix of the product, how you are placed. There is no such one break-even point. Every company has its own break-even levels. It depends on the spends that you are doing to acquire your market and share. So it depends and varies from company to company. Suppose you're not spending much and you are content with growing slowly and you are having incremental market share gains, but overall market share remains very muted, then you will break even at a much lower level. So there is no hard and fast rule as such. It varies from company to company.
Okay. Understood. That's all from me. Thank you.
Next question is from the line of Tejas Shah. Tejas, please highlight your organization name and go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. This is Tejas from Marzban Mutual Fund. Sir, first of all, congrats on very good performance considering the tough environment that you are in. What actually is interesting that just was curious to know that what is helping or allowing us to gain market share in such a difficult environment while the leader is losing? Are we targeting a different set of consumer cohort where we are not present, or we are just winning on pure execution versus the rest?
Primarily, I would say execution has been steady in our case. There have been cases where there has been an increase in terms of activity from competition. As you said, the leader got impacted a bit more last year. I am sure they will bounce back. This is my belief that they will come back to normalcy. We have been very consistent in our delivery. We have not gone up suddenly. We have not gone down suddenly. We have been consistently batting, as I have already always said.
In the paint business, you can't do dramatic stuff. It has to be slow and steady. That's what we have been doing. We have been executing well. We have been innovating. Some of the innovations are doing very well, and that has been helping us to gain market share.
Got it. Sir, second question, slightly an extension of the first one. In today's construct of the landscape there, where do you see greater opportunity to gain share? In markets where we are number two or three and the leader is actively responding to the new competition, are we doing better? Or in markets where we are established leader and we are gaining from others while fending off new entrants also?
It's a mix, actually. Tejas, there is no hard and fast rule which is there. Typically, only areas where we aren't doing all that great is where we are relatively weakly positioned, and those are very few markets which are there. Where our presence may be below 10%, in such markets, we have an issue. Otherwise, I would say last year we gained everywhere else. So that's how it is.
Got it, sir. That's all from my side, and all the best for FY26.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Parsi Panthiki. Parsi, please go ahead.
Yeah. Am I audible? Yes, Parsi. Yeah. Sir, firstly, just one clarification. This 15%-17% band, is that for the standalone or consolidated?
Both.
Okay. Secondly, I just wanted to know this. You mentioned that gross margins have been benefited by certain price increases you have taken a few months ago. Just wanted to know, has anyone else in the industry taken, because Asian Paints has not called out any price increases?
Who in the industry took that price increases? That happened in quarter three, actually. That entire industry took it, including Asian. Yes.
What is the quantum?
It varies from company to company, but it would be in the range of 1.5%-2%.
Got it. Got it. I just wanted to know, in response to an earlier question on competition, you mentioned that it will continue for two to three years and then it will stabilize. What exactly did you mean here? Does it mean that the new entrant could continue to gain market share for two to three years, or that is not what you meant? What exactly did you mean?
No, I think there will be skirmish in the market when the equilibrium is disturbed for the next two to three years, after which the dust will settle down and everyone will be back to normalcy. This is what I am trying to say.
Got it. Got it. I think, if I understand correctly, what the person was asking is that how long do you think before the market share will stabilize? As in, how long will the new entrant keep gaining market share before they hit a wall?
I think one year more. This is this year because they started late. So this one year will be some gain in market share, possibly. And after that, it will stabilize.
Understood. That's all from me. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Sheila Rathe. Sheila, please highlight your organization name and go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. Sheila Rathe from Morgan Stanley. Sir, again, my question is around market share. I believe that market share is actually the output. From your perspective, what are the inputs you are monitoring that is helping us gain this market share? You talked about innovations. You also talked about capacity is not a reason why anyone would gain market share. Are there any other variables which you are tracking extensively that's helping us?
Yes. We have our own which we call Mega Strategy, which is basically M for Maintenance, E for Experimentation, and G and A for Growth and Acceleration. We maintain and track each one of these separately. For maintenance, basically, you should have all your normal stuff, the machine installation should happen, the contractors should be there with you.
In terms of the consumers getting attracted for Express Painting, that should continue. Those are basic stuff which has to be handled, which is true for any paint company. They have to ensure that this happens. We also take care of this, including our big dealers and the gold card dealers, which we call. They should all be aligned with us. That is one part. We do experiments every year. One, two, as I said, urban experiment is something which we were doing and which we feel now, once it reaches, we do three, four such experiments. The ones which look the most prospective, whether in terms of product, whether in terms of distribution and network, or any other area that we think is important, we take those and we scale up in a big way.
The scaling up is what we call growth and accelerate. There are a few areas which we feel can now be accelerated very furiously. Those are the areas which we focus on. We add resources, we add manpower, and we ensure that those grow fast. This is our strategy, in short, which we ensure that we stay ahead of the pack.
Sir, would you like to give any example around this experimentation, any market which you would like to call out?
No, That is what I said, the urban market and how we are doing it now. We are looking at distribution. We are looking at product mix. We are looking at what we can do in terms of pricing, how we can, which are the type of products which can sell well. Is there a product modification that is required for the urban markets?
What is the distribution edge which we can bring? The regular stuff will not help us. Those are the things which we keep looking at. We keep experimenting a few things in each of these areas. What works, we then take it forward. I obviously cannot tell you what is working and what is there for because then it will get copied by everyone.
I understand, sir. Sir, second question is you talked about non-core, which is waterproofing, and other parts of the business is doing well. What would be the gap between the core versus non-core for us from a growth perspective?
No, waterproofing is doing better comparatively. As I said also, it is only 10%. It is not as if it is going to have a massive impact. Yes, it does create a positive impact. The core category, therefore, is slightly slower. That, I think, is true across the industry in the paint industry today.
My final question, sir, sorry for the disturbance. My final question is around, you talked about powder coatings and not doing well in the B2B space, in the project space. What would be the share of this part of the business in the B2B space for us?
It is negligible, actually. Overall, total share of powder coating and general industries put together is 3% or less than that. It does not really impact us significantly.
Ninety-seven percent.
Hello?
This particular year was not that great. Is it fair to say?
Pardon me?
Hello? Fair to say that 97% part of the B2B business was doing okay, just that there was a general slowdown?
Of the B2B business, this may be slightly higher because the B2B business itself, in our case, if you look at it, for decorative is about 80%, and the B2B business is 20%, right? I am talking of the total 100% business. These two are about 3%.
Okay. Understood. Understood. The other part of the business, you expect to come back in FY26? Let's assume powder coatings and general.
The protective coatings business is likely to continue to do well. Automotive, which is, again, another B2B business, is likely to continue to do well, has done well in the fourth quarter, is likely to do well going forward as well. From the B2B space, these two will do well. I hope that these other two also turn around and start doing well.
Thank you very much, sir. Understood.
The next question is from the line of Karthik Chillappa. Karthik, please highlight your organization name and go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you again for the opportunity, sir. This is Karthik from Indus. What I wanted to know is a clarification to the comment that you made earlier, that in your assessment, the industry growth is probably slightly negative to maybe flat or so. In your assessment or your intelligence, are there any pockets which have started growing in the high single-digit, low double-digit range? And this weak growth is probably concentrated in some pockets, or do you think this weak growth is basically across geographies?
It's more or less across geographies if you look at it. It's not specific areas or specific urban or rural or whatever. It's spread out across geographies. In some of the markets, it is slightly better. In some other markets, it might be slightly worse off. No major tangible difference between geographies or between urban and rural.
Okay. Got it. Just one last question from my side, sir. I mean, a question that has been asked in the past of you as well, which is the overall category growth itself being so weak and possibly even below GDP multiple. In the past, we used to contend that it was because of the price cuts that the players have actually been taking. Now, we are close to those price cuts being anniversary, which means that your value and volume growth will probably start to converge. Even if that were to happen, a 7% volume growth is probably closer to a real GDP growth multiple. Whereas in the past, we have seen that it is almost 1.5 to 2 times. What do you think needs to happen for us to see that very strong GDP multiplier in volume growth that we saw in the past?
No, Karthik, it's like this that there is a general slowdown in the consumption economy. It's not only true for paint industry per se. It is true for all FMCG companies. You would have seen many FMCG industries reporting figures, and they are not something to cheer about. It has been much lower than even the paint industry. At least we are above GDP. In our case, at least, it is above GDP. So 7.5%-8% when GDP growth is about 6.2% is fairly okay. It's about 1.2 times that of the GDP. If you look at the entire consumption space, probably most of the companies would have grown at 2%, 3%, 4%, the stable ones at least, not the newcomers.
This is how it is. There is a slowdown. We expect that there will be some improvement with the disposable income going up after the tax inputs come in. We hope that the consumption demand starts looking upwards. If and when that happens, obviously, we will go back to our double-digit volume growth.
Got it. Excellent. Thank you, sir. Thank you very much for these responses, and wish you and the team all the very best.
Thank you.
Next question is from the line of Omkar Hadkar. Omkar, please highlight your organization name and go ahead. Omkar, please unmute your line and go ahead.
I do not think he is there.
Okay. As there are, I think, not available. Okay. As there are no further questions, we consider that as the last question for the day. I hand over the call to management for closing remarks. Thank you, Nitin.
Thank you all of you for coming here and listening to this waterproof presentation from our side. Have a good time going forward. Thank you.
Thank you on behalf of Emkay Global Financial Services. That concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us.
Thank you, Nitin. We'll catch up.
Thank you, sir.