Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Shriram Finance Limited Q4 FY 2024 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Umesh G. Revankar, Executive Vice Chairman, Shriram Finance Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you. Good evening, friends from India and Asia, and a warm welcome to all of you who are listening today. Greetings also to those who have joined the call from the western part of the world. To present our Q4 earnings call today, I have with me our Managing Director and CEO, Mr. Y.S. Chakravarti, Joint Managing Director and CFO, Mr. Parag Sharma, Mr. S. Sunder, Joint Managing Director. Also present are Ravi Subramanian, MD and CEO of our subsidiary, Shriram Housing, and G.S. Agarwal, CFO. We also have Mr. Sanjay Kumar Mundra, our Investor Relations head. It has been a very encouraging fourth quarter for us and also for full year. We are seeing the fruitful dividend in our business model at the end of a full financial year post-merger.
Let me first go through the economy. Indian GDP expanded 8.4% in the October to December quarter, far exceeding economic expectations, thanks to this manufacturing and construction. The third quarter GDP number was highest in six quarters on the back of 11.6 rise in manufacturing activity and 9.5% expansion of construction sector. Government also revised up its GDP growth forecast for the full year, ending in March 2024, to 7.6% from January projection of 7.3%. Early in February, government presented an interim budget that sought to slow the pace of infrastructure spend while aiming for fiscal consolidation. Under the plan, capital expenditure is set for an annual rise of 11% to INR 11.11 trillion for the year ending March 2025.
That is, little down compared to the 33% increase in the previous year. On inflation, India's annual retail inflation rate eased to 4.85% in March, from 5.09% in February, to five months low, helped by the drop in fuel price. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of overall consumer price basket, rose 8.52% in March, compared with 8.66% in February. The wholesale price-based inflation inched up a three-month high of 0.53% in March, from 0.2% in February. RBI, in its MPC meeting held in April 5, 2024, has kept the key policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, as retail inflation continues to be above the target of 4%.
This is the 7th meeting on track that MPC has maintained the status quo on the repo rate. According to RBI, India's GDP projection projected to grow at 7% for FY 2025, while retail inflation is likely to be 4.5%. On the rural economy, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above normal monsoon rains at 106% of long period average in 2024, raising the hopes in farm sector after erratic weather last year, which clipped the summer harvest. Private weather agency Skymet has predicted that India will have a normal southwest monsoon in 2024 with 102% of long period average. The RBI's latest survey on consumer confidence for the current period has been on a path of sustained recovery.
Consumer confidence for the year ahead also has improved further and pointed out that rural demand, which was lagging, the urban demand earlier, has picked up since Q2 FY 2024. The estimate of Rabi crop production being higher, there was a robust 20% rise in agricultural credit growth. Strong uptick in two-wheeler and tractor sales has been seen in the rural segment. A normal monsoon is an important prerequisite for broader economic growth. Also, stronger rural and aggregate consumption will spur the capacity utilization level that has been flatlined lately around 75%. Importantly, it will be critical input for RBI to move decisively towards interest rate cuts, given the role of food inflation, increasing the inflation pitch for long now.
But while rural consumption may see cyclical recovery, broader consumption will continue to play secondary role as government continues to lean on capital-led growth strategy. On GST collection, the GST collection for the month, March 2024, rose 11.5% on annual basis to INR 178,000 crore, second highest since the GST regime came into force. GST collection for the full year saw increase of 11.7% at INR 2,010,000 crore. Coming to the auto industry, this quarter has been generally good for automobile industry. On commercial vehicles, the total CV sales for the Q4 was 2.68 lakh against 2.79 lakh.
This is in anticipation because normally when we come to the election year, just preceding the election year, the commercial vehicle sales slows down in anticipation of lower activity during the election period. For the full year, the total commercial vehicle sales stood at 9.68 lakh against 9.62 lakh units sold in FY 2023. That is a flattish growth. Within the CV, M&HCV sales in Q4 2024 slowed down to 1.1 lakh, 1.0 lakh unit, against 1.18 lakh unit in Q4 FY 2023. And for the full year, it registered a growth of 4%, with sales number of 3.73 lakh against 3.59.
LCV sales were 1.58 lakh units versus 1.61 lakh units in Q4 2023, and for the full year, sales number was 5.95 lakh units against 6.03, again, a flat for the year. Passenger vehicle has seen a significant growth. The growth was 11.5%, with 11.36 lakh units being sold against 10.18 lakh units in Q4 2023. And for the full year, it registered a growth of 8.4%, with 42.1 lakh units against 38.9 lakh units for the same period last year. Two-wheeler has seen a robust growth of 24.9%, with sales of 45.04 lakh units in Q4 FY 2024, against 36.05 lakh units sold in Q4 FY 2023.
And for the full year, it registered a growth of 13.3%, with sales of 179.74 lakh units, against 158.63 lakh units sold in the same period last year. Three-wheeler registered a growth of 10.3% with 1.65 lakh units sold versus 1.54 lakh units sold in Q4 2023. For the full year, it recorded strong growth of 41.5% sales, with sales of 6.92 lakh units, as against 4.89 lakh units sold in the same period of last year. Tractor sales again registered growth in Q4, with 9.12%, with 2.44 lakh units against 2.23 lakh units in Q4 2023.
For the full year, recorded 7.47% with sales of 8.91 lakh units against 8.29 lakh units sold in the same period last year. Construction equipment, again, registered a good, healthy growth of 20.35% with 38,079 units sold versus 31,640 units sold in Q4 2023. For the full year, it recorded a growth of 23.77% sales, with 123,443 units against 99,735 units sold in the same period last year. Now, I request my colleague, Chakravarti, to take us through the operational performance. Thank you.
Thank you, Umesh. I welcome all of you to our Q4 FY 2024 earnings call, and I hope you have had the opportunity to pursue our investor presentation posted on the website in the stock exchanges. We have registered disbursement growth of 26.64% year-on-year, and of 4.07% quarter-on-quarter. Our disbursements in quarter four, FY 2024 this year aggregated INR 39,326.86 crore, versus INR 31,054.08 crore in quarter four, FY 2023, and versus INR 37,787.84 crore in quarter three, FY 2024. Our AUM, as on 31st March, 2024 registered a growth of 21.1% over Q4 FY 2023 of 4.96% sequentially.
Our AUM stood at INR 224,861.98 crore as against INR 185,682.86 crore a year ago, and INR 214,213.47 crore in Q3 FY 2024. Our net interest income in Q4 FY 2024 registered a growth of 20.02% year-on-year, and of 4.75% quarter-on-quarter. We earned a net interest income of INR 5,336.06 crore in Q4 FY 2024 this year, as compared to INR 4,445.89 crore in Q4 FY 2023, and INR 5,093.93 crore in Q3 FY 2024.
Our net interest margin was 9.02% as against 8.55% in Q4 FY 2023, and 8.99% in Q3 FY 2024. Our profit after tax grew by 48.73% in Q4 FY 2024, over Q4 FY 2023, and by 7.01% over Q3 FY 2024. We registered PAT of INR 1,945.87 crore for Q4 FY 2024, as compared to INR 1,308.31 crore in Q4 FY 2023, and INR 1,818.33 crore in Q3 FY 2024. Our earnings per share for the quarter stood at 51.79 rupees, as against 34.94 rupees in Q4 FY 2023, and 48.42 in Q3 FY 2024.
Our asset quality, on our asset quality, Gross Stage 3 in Q4 FY 2024 stood at 5.45%, and Net Stage 3 at 2.70%. These numbers will show an improvement over the corresponding numbers of 6.21% gross and 3.1% net in Q4 FY 2023, and 5.66% gross and 2.72% net in Q3 FY 2024. Our credit cost for Q4 FY 2024 stood at 2.06% as against 2.24% for Q4 FY 2023, and 2.15% for Q3 FY 2024. Our cost income ratio was 26.68% in Q4 FY 2024, as against 30.15% recorded in Q4 FY 2023.
Our cost income ratio in Q3 FY 2024 was 27.08%. Regarding our subsidiary, Shriram Housing Finance Limited, our subsidiary, Shriram Housing Finance Limited, registered disbursement growth of 76.88% over the same quarter last year. Disbursement in Q4 this year were INR 2,301.49 crore as against INR 1,301.13 crore in Q4 FY 2023. Shriram Housing's assets under management as on March 31, 2024, which exhibited a growth of 71.02% year-on-year and 14.44% sequentially.
AUM stood at INR 13,761.68 crore at the end of Q4 FY 2024, as against INR 8,046.0 crore in Q4 FY 2023, and INR 12,025.14 crore in Q3 FY 2024. Shriram Housing Finance's net interest income reached a growth of 44.12% in Q4 FY 2024 over Q4 FY 2023. Net interest income for Q4 FY 2024 was INR 96.02 crore, as compared to INR 66.63 crore in Q4 FY 2023, and INR 103.57 crore in Q3 FY 2024. Shriram Housing Finance registered a profit after tax growth of 67.1% in Q4 FY 2024 over Q4 FY 2023.
Tax for the fourth quarter of this year was INR 62.06 crore as compared to INR 37.14 crore for Q4 FY 2023, and INR 61.52 crore for Q3 FY 2024. The EPS stood at INR 1.42, against INR 1.14 in Q4 FY 2023, and against INR 1.88 in Q3 FY 2024. Shriram Housing's Gross Stage 3 for Q4 FY 2024 stood at 1.03%, and their Net Stage 3 came in at 0.79%. In comparison, these numbers were 0.93% on gross basis and 0.69% on net basis in Q4 FY 2023, and at 1.01% gross and 0.75% net in Q3 FY 2024.
I shall now request our whole time director and CFO, Mr. Parag Sharma, to inform you about our resource raising activities, after which our joint managing director, Mr. Sunder, will brief you about accounting and regulatory aspects. Thank you.
Thank you, and hello, everyone. Our total debt as of March 31st stands at INR 1,85,845 crore. It's broken up into term loans, which is 24%, securitization, which is 15.5%, external commercial borrowing, both from the bond and the loan route, are around 13%, the capital market borrowing at 20% and, fixed deposit, at 24%. The cost of debt has gone up by 5 basis points in the current quarter, and year-on-year basis, it has gone up by 19 basis points. So liquidity, we continue to maintain the 3 months' liabilities as liquidity, which have been the case in the past also.
The leverage ratio stands at 3.83%, 3.83x versus 3.65, which was last year. All ALM buckets continue to be positive, and the cumulative surplus up to one year is INR 38,190 crore. The LCR ratio is at 195.55%, and this is compared to 209.86 in the last year. The overall ECB borrowing in the current year has been around INR 13,950 crore, versus INR 6,600 crore in the last financial year. Now, the incremental cost of fund has been has also gone up around 6 basis point in the current quarter. I'll hand over to Sunder for.
Couple of different points. One is the employee count as on March 31st was 74,645, as against 73,485 in the December quarter. And the PD/LGD numbers, PD for stage 1 was 8.85, as against 7.89 in the previous quarter. And Stage 2 PD was 20.12, as against 18.22 in the previous quarter. And the LGD was at 38.08%, as against 41.45% in the previous quarter. With these numbers, we handle the flow to Stage 3 for the quarter.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone phone. An operator will take your name and announce your turn in the question queue. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Gaurav Kochar from Mirae Asset. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. Three questions. I think in the end you mentioned regarding the PD and LGD assumptions that have gone up in this quarter, and maybe that is the reason why Stage 1 ECL has gone up from 3% to 3.3% quarter-over-quarter. Can you just highlight is this because of the COVID data that has come into your ECL model assumptions? And by when do you think this will normalize?
Yeah, we have every year, March, we do an reassessment of our PD and LGD rates, et cetera. And this year also, we have taken the last five years' data and done the thing, and we have also factored the economic parameters also into the consideration. And moreover, why the PD rates have marginally gone up is that we are also factoring that daily stamping, which we started doing one and a half years back. So because of that, the inflow into the other buckets tend to go up as compared to the earlier regime, wherein the daily stamping was not done. And that has led to marginal increase in the PD, which we have started factoring from the current quarter onwards.
LGD has come down compared to the previous quarter, again, primarily because of the reassessment of the historical data.
Okay. Okay, so, based on these assumptions and the changes you've made, do you believe this can stabilize at 3.3, currently where we are, or you believe this can move up further in the coming?
No, it should stabilize around these levels. Maybe, give or take a couple of basis points.
Okay. Okay, understood. Sure. So my second question is, with respect to the, you mentioned the incremental cost of fund has gone up, in line with the overall cost of fund. So in that context for, let's say, next year, based on, you know, that the difference between your stock cost and incremental cost is, negligible, do you believe the cost of funds can sustain, assuming no rate cuts, do you believe we can sustain these cost of fund, at current level for next year?
Yeah, yeah. We can definitely have the current incremental cost of funds to be maintained and not go up any further, because it's currently at around 9%, and I don't foresee any reason why it will further go up.
Sure. Sure, sure. And in this context, if I look at our product mix has been shifting towards the high-yielding assets, you know, the you know, non-CV proportion has gone up, and I'm assuming that will continue in the next couple of years also. So in that case, do... Are we confident of maintaining this 9% margin that we've delivered in this quarter?
Yeah, our intent is to maintain 9%, and the product mix definitely will continue to have a focus on high-yielding assets.
Sure, sure. That's, that's, that's great to know. So and this last question is with respect to the AUM growth guidance, for maybe FY 2025 and maybe, slightly longer. While you have always called out aspirationally 15%, is something that you would want to do. But if I look at this year, I mean, you've already delivered 21. And if I look at, you know, couple of factors, one is the branch productivity will improve as the cross-sell rate increases, and you will add more branches, to the fold, for cross-sell. So taking all these, all these things into consideration, why can't we do 20%?
There are a couple of factors. One is, with the financial year, the first few months, election will slow down, demand, credit demand to some extent, because, see, this is a CapEx driven, growth, our Indian economy. And when the government machinery are involved in, election duty, there's likely to be some slowdown in, the, in, CapEx activity of the government, infrastructure activity. So we therefore, expect little slower growth in the first quarter as well. And the second is we would like to be as granular as possible, not focus on top line growth. Because if we go for big ticket loan or new vehicle or equipment loan or big ticket SME loan, we can always grow faster. We will be focusing more on high-yielding products, more granular.
So our aim is to grow the bottom line, be larger than the top line. That is the idea. So our focus will be more on granular, small ticket and high-yielding products. So the entire energy will be on growing the bottom line faster than the top line.
Sure, sure. And, sir, the credit cost, I mean, now that ECL, even on stage one, will stabilize at these levels, what kind of credit cost would you like to guide for fiscal year 25?
The credit cost, we have been giving a long-term guidance of around 6%, and this year we have ended up with 2.06. As the previous year, we ended up with 2.15. I think,
1.97.
Okay. 1.97 for the full year. Sorry, 1.97 for the full year. We should be able to maintain that around, around that level for the full year.
Sure. Thank you, sir. That's it from me.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Renish from ICICI. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, sir, and congrats for great set of numbers. So just circling back to what Gaurav was trying to highlight on the growth side. So just wanted to know that, you know, in terms of the merged entity, where do we stand in terms of the product integration? So as we speak today, roughly 3,000 branches. So are all these branches equipped with all products? Or where do we stand in terms of the product integration today? And let's say if we have not reached the maximum level, so despite being the micro or not supporting, you know, the segments, specifically the vehicle segment, infra staff due to election, does the merger benefit drive the growth?
Yeah. This is Chakravarti here. So as far as branches are concerned, no, we are doing it in stages, so all the products are not available in all the 3,000 branches and may not be available in future also, because it depends on where the branches are located, and the feasibility we will be introducing. As we already mentioned, we have added some, like, close to about 900 branches, between 800-900 branches for gold loan, SME in another 600 branches. So, this is an ongoing process. Probably it will take about a year or so for us to fully take these products to all the feasible locations.
The SME may not be available in all the branches because we will be operating on a hub and spoke model, where the spokes would be the lead generators and the hub will be the processing and underwriting office. Similarly, gold may not be available in certain commercial vehicle branches because, you know, these branches are located on the outskirts of the city, so those we will not be opening there. So it's depending on feasibility, but as I told you, it may not be available, all the products may not be available in all the branches. One second is on the growth side, see, CV is the largest.
CV, the commercial vehicle segment is the largest of the portfolio, and if it is growing at a slower pace, obviously the other products will have to go, grow at a higher, higher, pace. We expect, commercial vehicles to grow around 11, 12%. Okay? And, that, that means is, our, projected, number of... If we are to reach the 15% AUM growth, the other products have to grow at 20, 20, 20, more, 20% or, more. So that's how they are, they will balance it out.
Got it. Got it. Okay. And just a last question from my side. This is a bit on a qualitative side. So, you know, we have recently seen, well, a vehicle financing company witnessing a large fraud of roughly INR 1.8 billion. So now given the merged entity, you know, we'll be having one of the largest distribution network, physically, on the industry space, with more than 3,000 branches, more than 70,000 odd employees. So how we ensure that, you know, no such events happening, at Shriram?
We have a robust internal audit department, and there are also controls and balances at various levels, and we are confident that the frauds of a very big nature will not occur. So here and there, smaller fraud keep happening, the customer related fraud, but it’s restricted to, say, INR 1 or 2 crores, but nothing significant will be against. We have the confidence in our audit and the control mechanisms.
Would you like to give some, let's say, 2, 3 important points to highlight, let's say, how frequently we do the audit or do we have an external audit structure, et cetera?
We have around 150 odd number, internal audit team, who visit around 2,300 branches. That is the audit plan for the year 2024-25. And to support this, we also have an, two hundred member operational audit team, who also parallelly visit all the branches and then ensure that, the no, no fraud as such happens. We have market intelligence also.
Okay. Okay. That's it from my side, sir. Thank you, and best of luck.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Adarsh Parasrampuria from Enam Holdings. Please go ahead.
Hello. Yeah, congrats on good numbers, sir. So since you mentioned that the focus will be on profitability, can you kind of indicate what kind of ROEs you expect? You are at 16% this year. You know, you created a lot of buffers and provisions, so any ROEs that you would target over FY 2025 and 2026?
We have given guidance of what? 16-18 as the range, and we are already at 16+. I think by next year, this financial year, we should be able to cross 17, so that is the target. And definitely, by 2026, we'll be 18.
Got it, sir. And, so the other question was on the housing subsidy. You know, the subsidy has grown when profitability is strong. A lot of media articles we read, and you had indicated that probably by the end of this quarter, you all can speak a little bit more about what kind of plans you have for that subsidy. So if you can just talk about that.
See, our housing subsidiary is growing very fast, and we need to add the capital to that for further growth. So the entire thinking is on providing the growth capital. So we are looking at various options of providing the growth capital. So the discussion internally is on nothing, so status quo remains. There's nothing decided on that.
Okay. But you would want to just get growth capital, which means that you won't look to, like, media articles talk about a lock, stock, and barrel sale. So is that option also one of the options, or you would not explore?
All options are open.
Got it. Thanks. Thanks for this. I'm done.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Meghna Luthra from InCred Equities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. So I just have two questions. One is that, since two-wheeler sales have been good, the book has still been slow in terms of growth. And, the second question is a bookkeeping question. I just wanted a breakup of disbursements according to the segment.
See, two-wheeler disbursements have definitely grown, but as you know, it's a 20-month product. If you look at it year-on-year, there is a 42% growth on a disbursement. Sorry, 14% growth on disbursement. So even the number of units also have grown.
Okay.
AUM wouldn't have grown significantly because of the tenor being so the churn is higher there.
Okay. Can I please have the breakup of disbursement?
Yeah. Three-wheeler we have done INR 16,425 crore.
Okay.
Passenger vehicle, INR 6,706 crore.
Q4.
For Q4. This, I'm calling out for Q4.
Yeah.
Construction Equipment, 2,354.
Okay.
Farm Equipment, 894. MSME, 6,372. Two-wheeler, 2,602. Gold, 3,249. Personal loans, 1,722, totaling to 39,326.
Thank you, nice information.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shweta Daptardar from Elara Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. So I might be harping on growth, all over again. But then, we do understand that in near term, election-driven phenomenon would anchor the growth prospects. But say one year down the line, say, as we move towards the FY26, and also given the fact that you mentioned in the beginning that the growth will be more coming from lower-yielding products, which today also are potentially or, or have potential to grow at significant rates, then why still our growth targets remain around 15, 16%? So what, what is the expectation, say, you know, two years down the line?
See, I think I have already explained, we would like to have a more granular growth of, we'll be focusing on our niche area of small ticket lending, where high-yielding assets will be given a little higher weightage. And we are already a large base, and the growth will be calibrated, and we'll be focusing on improving the bottom line. So the entire focus is to bring efficiency and profitability, not the top line growth.
Sure, sir. Then secondly, on the credit quality. So in terms of stage three and so also, similar trends in stage two, so we have seen drastic improvement there, which, wherein even our credit cost guidance of 2% is coming. So do you see further improvement in GNPA or stage three going forward, given that your credit cost guidance is expected to drastically, you know, the credit cost which you are guiding is expected to drastically come down to 2% odd levels from 2.3%, 2.4%?
See, we, our target is as the economy improves and our target of stage loss, Stage 3, is we are at 5.45 now. We will be moving towards 5% by the end of the financial year. So that is the target we have, and next will be around 2.5. And credit cost, by and large, will remain on similar lines, maybe around 10 basis points ±.
That helps, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chandrasekhar Sridhar from Fidelity International. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening. I have a few questions. One, Parag, you sort of mentioned that interest costs will be largely flat. I do notice, though, you have increased FD rates, you know, recently. So just, and given that it's a reasonable chance of borrowing, maybe just some thoughts on how do you sort of result. How does it result in interest costs being constant? Second, another question for Sunder. Maybe if you could share the write-off number for the quarter. And, you know, then, for Umesh, a few thoughts around price versus volume in the CV segment. How is that this year? How do we see that moving into the next couple of years in terms of the CV business?
Because at some point in time, the BS6 vehicles will start coming into our portfolio, which should result in some level of, you know, step up in pricing. Just curious to see why you are still guiding for 11%-12%, because my understanding is that BS6 eventually start getting into our portfolio, by the latter half of this year.
Yeah, what you are saying is right. We have increased our deposit rate by not very significantly, only 5-10 basis points what we have increased. And only in one bucket we have increased by around 15 basis point, 20 basis point. But overall, that deposit portfolio, until it substantially goes up, then only there can be an increase in cost. Otherwise, it is only on the incremental borrowing that rate is applicable and not on the existing book. So that is one part. On the other pieces, which is largely the domestic borrowing, that is what we are focusing upon now. We have done large ECB borrowing in the January to March quarter. We don't foresee substantially going to the offshore market again for further raise. Domestic rates are holding up. There is no increase there.
That is the reason I am saying that costs may not go up substantially. Maybe a few basis point here and there can be there, but I don't foresee any substantial increase in cost.
On the breakup of credit cost for the quarter, the target which was written off was INR 805 crore, and the incremental provisioning was INR 456 crores, totaling to INR 126 crore.
Yeah. Coming to CV. See, used vehicle price increase was witnessed in the last financial year. There was increase of around 25% for all the used vehicle, whether it is BS2 or BS6, we get repriced almost on similar rate, in the sense, depending upon the vintage, the price going down because of the new vehicle price go up. So this increase is already been has come into the factor, in the sense we have guided 12%. Actually, we have grown 14.6% on CV in this financial year. Going forward, you are right, the prices of used vehicle will remain strong and further up.
Therefore, there is a scope for us to increase our used vehicle portfolio. The supply of used vehicle right now is restricted because the new vehicle sale was less in the 4 years back or 5 years back. So from back to the 2019 to 2022, the sale of new vehicle was depressed, so there are not enough supply per se. And the current new vehicle, that is last year's and this year's new vehicle, will be available in the market maybe a couple of years from now. That means there will be a robust, what you call, supply of used vehicle for next 4-5 years. That's what we feel confident that our CV portfolio will keep growing, but at a steady pace, maybe between 12%-15%.
It will be growing very steadily, but there will not be a big increase or a big number in the immediate future. It will happen over the next 3-5 years.
Is it fair to say that the volumes actually were down this year, but basically the growth is largely price-driven then? Because if you're saying there's been a 25% increase in price over the last couple of years, it means that bulk of the AM growth is essentially just pricing, which is coming out of it.
It is around 5% factor. If I say our 15% growth, 5% is due to the price increase, and 10% is due to the addition, new addition.
Right. Okay. And then a couple of products, personal loans, we've seen a pretty reasonable sequential decline. Your thoughts around that? And then lastly, on OpEx, obviously the last year and a half, we've been adding people to the franchise, but the sort of rate of employee addition has now slowed down a little bit. How should we just think of, you know, employee addition OpEx, you know, over the next year or two?
I think, Hi, Chandra, this is Chakravarti here. I think, on the employee side, you will see that slowdown. We wouldn't be adding much. Probably we'll be adding people where when people are leaving, we need to. On the, when people are on notice period, we will be picking up some people. So basically, we have created a small bench, so that can continue. Small recruitment will continue, but it, nothing substantial will be adding, one. On your, personal loan, yeah, we actually, so it's not, we just tightened our, norms and slowed down the business because of the concerns, that the market is expressing over it, though we are pretty confident about the, portfolio quality.
Okay. Got it. Great. Thank you so much. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Umesh G. Revankar for closing comments.
Thank you. Thank you for joining this call, and this quarter has been one of the best quarter for us in stability, improvement in asset quality, and growth. We even though the growth may be little slow in the first quarter of this financial year, with the IMD prediction being positive on monsoon, IMD and Skymet, we expect good, what you call, demand that will come from the rural area in the second quarter. And expecting that, I think the first half of the year, we should be able to see very steady growth. And with the new government coming in and lot of new projects may be announced and also will give impetus to existing infrastructure projects.
All in all, next quarter when we meet, we'll have a lot of good things to talk about and a good performance. Thank you very much.
Thank you. On behalf of Shriram Finance Limited, that concludes the conference call. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.