Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Shriram Finance Limited Q4 FY 2026 fourth quarter ended 31st March 2026 conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Umesh G. Revankar, Executive Vice Chairman, Shriram Finance Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you. Good evening, friends from India and Asia, and warm welcome to all of you. Greetings also to those who joined the call from western part of the world. To present our Q4 FY 2026 earnings call today, I have with me Managing Director and CEO, Parag Sharma; Managing Director, S. Sundar; Joint Managing Director and CFO, Sanjay Kumar; our Investor Relations head. It has been a good fourth quarter and year for results for Shriram Finance under current circumstances. Let us first look at the broad economic indicators. India's GDP growth slowed down to 7.8% in the third quarter fiscal 2026, down from 8.4% previous quarter. However, FY 2026 growth projection has been revised to 7.6% from 7.1%. Despite the current volatility, the IMF have projected the growth rate of 6.5% for FY 2027.
The economic strength is attributed to resilient domestic consumption and investment. However, it faces risk of high oil prices and geopolitical tension. India's retail inflation rose slightly to 3.4% in March 2026, up from 3.21% in February. This increase is mainly due to higher food prices influenced by external geopolitical factors, especially the ongoing crisis in West Asia. India's wholesale price-based inflation also accelerated to a three-year high, reaching 3.88% in March, from 2.13% in February. The key takeaway of RBI policy are as follows. Repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. Policy stance remain at neutral. GDP forecast 2026-2027 is at 6.9% against the 7.6% of 2025-2026. CPI inflation forecast for FY 2026-2027 is raised to 4.6%, up from 4.2%, due to rising crude oil price and supply chain disruption.
India's rural economy is facing dual threat in 2026 from potential monsoon shortfall and elevated agro input cost driven by global conflict, both of which could weigh on agriculture output and farmers' income, rural demand, and food inflation. The southwest monsoon remained critical for Indian economic growth, as strong kharif harvest boosts rural income, drives demand for FMCG, tractor, automobile, two-wheeler, jewelry, and consumer durables. As per the IMD forecast, the rains are likely to be 92% of average rainfall as per IMD. The Skymet has projected southwest monsoon of 94% of long period average. The deficit is expected to weaken rainfall primarily in the second half of the season. However, good rains during last two years, above 100%, has helped the reservoir being at a good level and also water table being high.
These are the positives, and we expect that to help out the initial challenges in this current year. GST collection grew by 8.8% to over INR 2 lakh crore in March this year as compared to INR 1.83 lakh crore in March 2025. Meanwhile, gross GST revenue rose to INR 2 lakh crore in FY 2025-2026, an 8.3% increase over INR 2 lakh crore recorded last year. Overall, the OEMs had a good year this year. Their total CV sales increased by 18.86% in Q4 FY 2026, which stands at 3.25 lakh units as against 2.74 lakh units sold in Q4 2025. For the full year, the sales increased by 12.64% to 10.8 lakh units against 9.59 lakh units in FY 2025. Within CV, M&HCV recorded 21.22% in Q4 2026, which stands at 1.4 lakh units against 1.5 lakh units sold in Q4 2025.
For the full year sales, it increased by 12.86% to 4.23 lakh units against 3.75 lakh units in FY 2025. LCV sales recorded 17.14% growth in Q4 FY 2026, which stands at 1.8 lakh units versus 1.58 lakh units sold in Q4 FY 2025. For the full year, sales increased by 12.5% to 6.57 lakh units against 5.84 lakh units. Passenger vehicle sales at Q4 FY 2026 recorded 13.22% growth, which stands at 13.16 lakh units as against 11.63 lakh units in Q4 FY 2025.
For the full year, sales increased by 7.94% to 46.43 lakh units as against 43.02 lakh units in FY 2025. Two wheelers recorded growth of 26.39% with the sales of 57.73 lakh units in Q4 FY 2026 as against 45.68 lakh units sold in Q4 FY 2025. For the full year, sales increased by 10.7% to 217.06 lakh units against 196.07 lakh units in FY 2025.
Three wheelers sales recorded growth of 26.74% in Q4, with sale of 2.27 lakh unit sold versus 1.79 lakh units sold in Q4 FY 2025. For the full year, sales increased by 12.79% to 8.36 lakh unit against 7.41 lakh unit. Tractor also recorded a growth of 22.87% with 2.86 lakh units sold as against 2.33 lakh units sold in Q4 FY 2025. For the full year, sales increased by 18.95% to 10.5 lakh unit as against 8.83 lakh unit in FY 2025. Construction equipment recorded a degrowth of 16.02% with 29,289 units being sold as against 34,876 units sold in Q4 FY 2025. For the full year, sales decreased by 8.24% to 1.14 lakh unit as against 1.24 lakh unit in FY 2025. EV sales, electric vehicle sales, the PV increased by 82.4% to 1.89 lakh unit as against 1.03 lakh unit for the full year.
Similarly, three-wheelers increased by 18.84% to 8.31 lakh units as against 6.99 lakh units. Two-wheeler, the full year increased by 21.72% to 13.93 lakh units against 11.44 lakh units. On April 8, 2026, in terms of investment agreement dated December 19, 2025, the company achieved a transformative milestone by successfully completing preferential allotment of 4 crore 71 lakh 1-
471.
Four-
INR 47 crore.
471,121,055 fully paid-up equity shares of face value of INR 2 each to MUFG Bank, Ltd. at an issue price of INR 840.93 per share. This landmark transaction totaling INR 396.18 billion resulted in MUFG Bank holding 20% stake in Shriram Finance on a fully diluted basis, which significantly bolsters our capital adequacy and provides a robust foundation for long-term strategic expansion. The board of directors have recommended a final dividend of INR 6 per equity share for the face value of INR 2 each fully paid, that is 300%, for financial year 2025, 2026, subject to approval by members in the ensuing 47th Annual General Meeting of the company. This is in addition to the interim dividend of INR 4.8 per equity share declared on October 31, 2025. With this, total dividend for the financial year will be INR 10.8 per share for INR 2 each.
I shall now ask my colleague, Parag Sharma, to take us through operational performance.
Thank you. Good evening, everyone, and welcome to our Q4 FY 2026 earnings call. I trust you had the opportunity to peruse our results and the related investor presentation, which has been posted on the website of stock exchanges. With regard to disbursement, our growth was 14.91% year-on-year. Our disbursement in Q4 FY 2026 this year aggregated to INR 50,952.30 crores versus INR 44,340.57 crores in Q4 FY 2025. Our assets under management, as on 21st March 2026, registered a growth of 14.85% over Q4 FY 2025 and of 3.62% sequentially.
Our AUM stood at INR 302,273.75 crores as against INR 263,190.27 crores a year ago, and INR 291,709.03 crores in Q3 FY 2026. Our net interest income in Q4 FY 2026 registered a growth of 15.58% year-on-year. We earned a net interest income of INR 6,994.08 crores in Q4 FY 2026 this year, as compared to INR 6,051.19 crores in Q4 FY 2025.
Our net interest margin in Q4 FY 2026 was at 8.61% as against 8.25% in Q4 FY 2025 and 8.58% in Q3 FY 2026. Our profit after tax grew by 40.86% in Q4 FY 2026 over Q4 FY 2025. We registered PAT of INR 3,013.57 crores for Q4 FY 2026 as compared to INR 2,139.39 crores in Q4 FY 2025, and INR 2,521.67 crores in Q3 FY 2026. Our earnings per share for the quarter stood at INR 16.02 as against 11.38 in Q4 FY 2025, and INR 13.40 in Q3 FY 2026.
Our asset quality gross stage 3 in Q4 FY 2026 stood at 4.58%, and net stage 3 at 2.33% as against 4.55% gross and 2.64 net in Q4 FY 2025, and was 4.54% gross and 2.38 net in Q3 FY 2026. Our credit cost on total assets for FY 2026 stood at 1.68% as against 2.07% for Q4 FY 2025 and 1.62% for Q3 FY 2026.
Our cost to income ratio was 25.32% in Q4 FY 2026 as against 27.65% recorded in Q4 FY 2025. Our cost to income ratio in Q3 FY 2026 was 29.66%. The increase in cost to income in Q3 FY 2026 was mainly due to incremental impact of INR 196.95 crores on gratuity and long-term compensated absences, representing increase in past service costs because of change in definition of wages under new labor code. On the liability side, this quarter the borrowing has been muted and overall liabilities have not grown compared to December quarter and liabilities stand at INR 250,690 crores. The cost of liabilities have marginally come down compared to previous quarter from 8.69%-8.59%. As of March 25, it was 8.96%. The incremental cost of fund is not relevant because we have not borrowed much, but still it was at 7.2%.
The liquidity coverage ratio for the company is at 323.17%, which was 335% in the December quarter. Now overall liquidity is at INR 13,000 crores, roughly around INR 13,000 crores, and that is sufficient for more than two months of liability repayment. The liquidity was slightly brought down because of anticipation of large capital funds being targeted for the first week of April, which was INR 40,000 crore. The leverage ratio is at 3.82x, and that has slightly come down from the December quarter. With this capital infusion, this will be in the range of 2.4x roughly. The capital adequacy ratio post this equity, as of now it is 20.4%, and post-equity infusion will be 34%. With this, I hand it back to the operator for opening the forum for question and answer.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from the line of Ganesh from ICICI. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the segment-wise AUM growth, right? If you look at it, except CV and farm equipment, most of the segments are witnessing category growth, specifically in Q4, and despite seasonally being a strong quarter and also benefiting from GST cutting. How one should read this trend, is it due to a lower credit demand at ground level owing to external environment, or do you see some stress building up in some product market and hence we might be calibrating growth in sub-segments? Also, last quarter, you had been mentioning about we would start entering into high ticket size loans, new vehicle loans, et cetera.
Yeah. Basically, if you look at the overall sales number, which I presented while giving you my address, the numbers have grown right from 10%-20% in various categories. Especially, this increase in sales that happened post the GST reforms or GST cuts. Therefore, the last quarter, especially January to March, you saw good progress in the new vehicle sales, and there is also equal demand in used vehicles. In both, I think, the demand is good, and this year we expect the overall growth to be muted. I don't see a big growth in this financial year. Since the demand for used vehicle is likely to remain strong, I think we will have a steady growth.
We also expect on the farm side, tractor side this year, since monsoons are likely to be delayed and monsoons are likely to be weaker, we expect the demand to come down a little. However, it should not impact the used tractor financing. On the new vehicle financing, as you asked us, there is a growth in our new vehicle financing, especially the customers who were otherwise going out to the competition, we are able to retain and finance them. We are seeing good progress in the growth of new vehicle in our AUM.
Got it. Just a follow-up on that, sir. When we are saying FY 2027 growth to remain muted, so should we assume that it will be lower than FY 2026 growth as well?
See, we have ended the last financial year with around 12%-15% growth in most of the segment. If we are able to have same number of sales this year, flat growth, that itself will be achievement. I think that itself will give us growth in all the segment for us because our penetration will go up, and we are able to retain our customers longer.
Got it. The reason why I'm asking this is because when we hosted a call when this deal got announced, I think our plan was to accelerate growth to 17%-18% with entering into high ticket loans, new vehicle financing, et cetera. Is this a transitory derailment because of external environment and hence we are saying growth will be muted in FY 2027? Is that the correct assumption?
I'm not talking about the Company's growth muted. I'm talking about sales number muted, but we will be growing at 18%. Yeah. We'll be growing at 18.
Okay. For us, AUM growth will be 17% is what you're saying?
Yeah. We have projected and budgeted 18%, and we'll grow at 18%.
Okay. Got it. Thank you. Thank you so much for this clarity, and best of luck, sir.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Shreepal Doshi from Equirus. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good evening, and thank you for giving me the opportunity. My question was firstly on the OpEx front. While Parag sir highlighted that last quarter INR 190 crore was the one-off in the OpEx number. This quarter, we have seen sharp decline even on YoY basis, it is down by 2%. What explains that?
See, there was some decrease in the operating cost, and it was also aided by a strong NII in the current quarter, which has resulted in an improved cost-to-income ratio. As we have been earlier guiding, we should be in the long-term range, it should be around between 26%-27%.
Sir, on the OpEx front, not talking about the C/I ratio, on the OpEx front alone, this improvement is because it is.
Compared to the previous quarter.
Yeah. No, compared to Q4 FY 2025.
See, okay. Compared to Q4 2025, it's a long-term thing. I would suggest that we compare with the December number. December number, as you are aware, INR 196 crore of additional cost was incurred for provisioning for the new labor code requirement. That increased the staff cost. That is not there in the current quarter. There has been muted, we were not very aggressive in increasing the headcount. It has been compared to the previous year, if you see from 79,000-odd employees, we are at 76,000 employees. That has also contributed to a lower staff cost in the current quarter, which going forward, we again want to increase it closer to 80,000 in the next couple of quarters. That is one. On the other OpEx, the current quarter, we spent less on our branding expenses and other advertisement costs.
There was one change in the accounting estimates wherein the expenses related to the two-wheeler DSA payout, till December 2025, we were charging it upfront. Now, this is to align with the Ind AS requirements, we have decided to defer it over the tenure of the contract, and hence there has been a dip of around INR 50 crore on that account.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much for that detailed answer. My second question was on the GS2 plus GS3 print. On a sequential basis, we have seen an uptick there, and it is visible across CE, CV, MSME, which are our key segments. Have you seen some deterioration in that segment or charge, or are you experiencing any customer profile specific or geography specific issues?
See, we are into retail segment. There will be some fluctuations in the cash flow of the retail customers. We can't construe that it is ongoing. It keeps moving from stage 2 or stage 3 sometimes, and even between stage 1 and stage 2 and come back. There's nothing like one specific geography. There are some segments of MSME had some impact, but I think it is now reasonably well controlled, and we also have reduced our MSME growth just to keep a watch on the segment, and we are very careful about it. Most of our MSME loans are against the mortgage of property. We have nothing to really worry about it.
Got it. Sir, just a follow-up there. Within CV, we have seen highest GS2 increase. Also in CV, it is up by almost 17 basis points on a sequential basis. While you highlighted within MSME, there are few segments within CV and PV also, if you could give some more details?
This also, again, we are into extreme retail, individual operator kind of a lending, where there will be fluctuation in the incomes. We have anticipated this while lending itself. Our business model itself recognizes this fact, and the credit cost is factored in our lending rates. We have nothing to really worry about it.
Got it.
If you look at our asset quality, overall it is moved from gross stage 3, 4.55%-4.58%, only 3 basis points year-on-year.
Got it. Given that, like you highlighted that our customer segment is relatively retail, extremely retail. Now, given that the geopolitical situation as well as oil prices going up, it exposes us significantly. Are we looking at a higher, let's say, building in a higher credit cost number for FY 2027 or in the current quarter, have you tried to create some buffers?
See, overall coverage, we have increased a little, but right now we cannot comment on that because fuel prices have not gone up. Unless the fuel price goes up and to what extent it goes up, we can't build a model on what is the likely credit cost. Ultimately, whatever the increase in the fuel price, the operators will pass on to the customer. It is not absorbed by the transporter alone or even part. He passes it on to either the shipper or the customers so that his business model does not get disrupted.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much, sir, for answering my questions, and good luck for the next quarter.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Sanket Chheda from DAM. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. My question was that, as you mentioned that industry volumes maybe some quarters the 30-plus move up, but in Q4 is usually unlikely that it does moving up. Was there anything specific?
No, Q4 gone up by what?
Margin rate.
4.58. From 4.55 to 4.58.
Yeah, it has gone up 17 basis points, not a big increase, but just keeping in context that it's a Q4, where we usually see improvement across other vehicles and assets.
No, we are not seeing any kind of, what do you call, challenging situation. Things are quite normal. Since we are lending to all the retail customers, cash flow mismatches will be there.
Okay. Second question was, sir, on now post this MUFG infusion, we are at the same level as far as the safety concern between you and MUFG. As far as the deal is concerned, there was a point wherein MUFG will not be able to, say, buy from secondary market for 24 months. Does that stay or maybe there is a possibility that there could be some stake increase before that also by MUFG. Anything on that that you would like to say?
See, this cannot be spoken here because nothing is being discussed. They have just come in, and you are already talking about something futuristic. I think this is not a very appropriate question at all.
No, just wanted to get a sense because there was a condition that there won't be a secondary market purchase for 24-
See, these are all part of the agreement. Okay?
Mm-hmm.
You cannot be speaking immediately on the arrival, what will be the next stage? You can't be speaking about it.
It's too early, you are saying, right?
You have to understand, no, it's not even one month.
Correct. Sure, sir. Lastly on the growth, we had said that maybe this year, at the start of the year, we were seeing 15% growth. Around the GST cuts and the positive impact of that coming in Q3, we had expected that we might do 16%, 17% or slightly higher than 15%. We are closing this year at 15%. What gives you the confidence that 18% in FY 2027 would be achievable considering some impact in Q1 as far as growth is concerned due to some lagging impact of this growth war? What really gives you the confidence that 18% would be really possible?
See, 18% is the budget we planned, and looking at the current situation, we need to relook at it, but not now, because we would like to wait for the situation to be understood fully. We would like to know which are the segment has impact. Right now, as of today, since fuel price have not increased, the monsoon conditions are not known. We can't predict anything. April month is normal April month for us. We have not seen any challenges. Going forward, what is going to happen? That we need to see. Definitely after the first quarter, first three months, we will relook at our budget, then probably give guidance.
Sure sir, that was very helpful. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Sudhanshu Mishra from Sun Life Capital. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. The first one is slightly clarity. This 18% growth you are talking about is on the AUM or the disbursement. Second, what is our growth guidance or maybe a cost to assets guidance, growth guidance for OpEx or cost to assets guidance? Third is, sir, how do we look at the credit cost? Do we want to increase our provisioning given there are certain headwinds and uncertainties? Fourth is around the new directors we have on board, the Japanese directors. How do we look at the executive team from a three-year perspective? Would we see any changes at the executive level?
Yeah. See, the 18% is on AUM growth. OpEx cost will be on same level at around 26%-27%. The credit cost, as of now, we don't see a big challenge there, but we will be revisiting the number after the first quarter result, looking at the market condition and the challenges we are facing. It will be mostly dependent on how the higher fuel price, as and when it declares, is going to have impact on the inflation. If the inflation impacts the consumption and the manufacturing, what will be the ultimate impact on the transporters. That will take some time for us to understand. As of now, we feel there is no change in our estimation on the credit cost. The new directors have joined the board, and there is no change in the way management is functioning. Management is continued to function.
The board also has recommended and approved Mr. Parag Sharma's continuation for the next five years, and it is going to be AGM for the shareholders' approval.
Sir, what I meant is that presently they are on the board. Would we see more of MUFG's people on the senior management personnel as well in executive roles, in management roles?
No. Right now, directors have come in the board. We have some people coming in the executive role, but not in the senior management role.
Understood, sir. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Abhijit Tibrewal from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. Am I audible?
Yes.
Hi, sir. Sir, just one thing. A few times we talked about fuel prices and the fact that given that state elections might now get over, there could be an increase in fuel prices. Just wanted to understand this fuel price increase feeding into inflation, which may consequently feed into some impact on consumption, and eventually the load that truck operators get. When something like this happens, do we first see this impacting asset quality or first the impact comes on growth?
See, basically, what happens is, when these things happen, the transporters pass on the cost to the customer. They don't absorb the cost, so they don't have any challenge on their net earnings. Net earning of the customer do not get impacted at all. The impact will be when the economy slows down. When there are not enough activity in the economy, when the vehicles are not fully engaged, then the impact comes. It happens over the period. If the economy revives or keep growing at the same rate, even when the prices go up, the transportation prices, nothing happens to the credit cost or to the transporter's business.
Got it. Sir, in that case, if fuel prices indeed go up, and we have to see by what amount it goes up, and if that leads to some slowdown in the economy, you see that the growth might slow down or the number of vehicles sold might slow down, but there is no direct impact on collections and credit costs and asset quality like you mentioned.
Yes.
All right, sir. Second thing is, sir, almost 55 days into this West Asia war, in the last maybe one week or so, or maybe not one week, maybe last one month or so, have you seen some supply chain disruptions on the ground where truckers are not getting adequate loads? Basically, what I'm trying to understand is, are we still at a point in time on 24th April today, where this West Asia conflict has had no impact on the economic activity?
As of now, we don't really see that, because there are delays in getting raw materials. This is a challenge of supply. As far as the transportation slowing down or customers not getting enough load, there are no indications as of now.
Got it, sir. Sir, lastly, I just wanted to understand, we have reported a very strong YoY and QoQ growth in the profits in this quarter. Just trying to understand, was there any contingent provisions or management overlay contemplated in the board meeting earlier today?
There were discussion on the same, but we thought unless we have a realistic picture on either the fuel price or the monsoon situation, we'll not be able to assess. Currently there, but since it is not assessed, we have not really acted on that. We always have conservative approach, and we do have some additional cover.
Got it, sir. sir, my last question is for Parag Sharma, sir. Sir, given what has been happening to the bond yields and the fact that we are also active in the debt markets, while you mentioned in your opening remarks that we did not borrow a lot in the last quarter, how were incremental cost of funds trending in March compared to, let's say, January and February? And how are they today in April? And lastly, for us, when I talk about our liabilities and our cost of borrowings, we all know you will see some benefit in your cost of fund because of a credit rating upgrade.
If you were to just remove that element out, do you think that the cost of borrowings, and especially the incremental cost of funding, has started moving up if we just take out the element of the credit rating upgrade benefit that we have?
Okay. One, I think capital market, we have not borrowed in the last quarter. If I look at what we borrowed in December quarter compared to rates at which we might have borrowed at the earlier rating levels, we did around 7.5 was the last bond issuance we did in the December quarter. If we had to borrow in March quarter, I think we would have borrowed at close to around 7.70-7.75 level. That could have been around 25 basis points increase in the bond rates. Yes, this is at the AA+ rating level and we have now been upgraded, so we have to test the waters with the AAA rating. We are, as of now, not in a hurry because of the excess liquidity and maybe looking at borrowing only after maybe four or five months.
We'll have to look at the market situation at that point of time. At the earlier rating level, yes, in a quarter, there had been some movement in the bond. When it comes to other borrowing instruments, I think we are more comfortable because the repo rate comes down, so rate should definitely improve. We have reduced our deposit rates. Overall, I think we should look at a lower cost of borrowing in the coming year.
Got it, sir. This is useful. Thank you very much, and I wish you and your team the very best.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Piran Engineer from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, team. Congratulations on the quarter. Just continuing on the previous question, how much of the cost of funds benefit will be passed on borrowers in terms of yield pricing?
See, we-
In another way, are we targeting a NIM at current levels or are we targeting a NIM at, say, 9%-9.2% sort of levels?
See, we would like to protect the NIM and keep growing the business. It all depends upon the market situation, and if at all we need to pass on some benefit to the customer to grow our business, we will do it. How much? We can't really park it separately and do it. As and when it matters, it keeps happening. Ultimately, our aim is to retain our existing customer, and as and when he grows for larger ticket or new vehicles or new machinery, keep funding him.
Okay. Sir, if I ask this question another way, in your budgeting today, you budgeted 18% AUM growth for next year. What have we budgeted for margin?
Net interest margin, 8.5%.
Net interest margin, we have budgeted 8.5% only.
8.5 only?
Yeah.
Sir, why would you budget that?
Pardon?
I mean, why wouldn't you budget a higher NIM because of the cost of funds benefit we are going to get?
As and when the cost of benefit comes, we'll keep doing it. If you want to, it will vary.
Mm-hmm. Okay.
You can't pinpoint and put this as a number.
Understood. Okay, sir. Sir, secondly, just on MSME lending, what percentage of this book is unsecured, and what signs should we see to sort of expect growth to come back?
See, mostly, we all large ticket, we have a mortgage. Only the small ticket we do not insist on the mortgage of property. Exact numbers, we will pass it on through Sanjay.
Okay. Sir, just on growth?
On growth?
Like last two years, growth was 25%-30% in MSME after the merger with SCUF happened.
Yes.
Last year it has moderated to 10%-12%.
Yes.
Some part of it could be caution. My question is next year, should we see this scale back up or are we continuing with our cautious view?
We'll be cautious because one, we slowed down because of the U.S. tariff, now because of West Asia. We will be looking at reviewing the situation and keep working on it. As of now, we'll be conservative. We'll be looking at around 13%-15% growth, but as the situation improves, we'll increase our lending.
Understood. Yeah, okay, sir. I'll follow up with Mundra sir for the unsecured percentage data point.
Thanks.
Wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Rajiv Mehta from YES Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good evening. Congrats on good numbers. My first question is on this very strong growth seen sequentially in CV portfolio. If you can give some color whether the new CV financing you picked up on, or was it used, which kind of increased its momentum and whether in used did we increase our market share in our core vintage segment of five to eight-year or five to ten-year? Can you give some color about why this high growth came about in this quarter in the CV portfolio?
The new financing has actually gone up. It has improved significantly because sales also has improved. If you look at the-
Yeah
quarter-on-quarter sales, year-on-year quarter, nearly 20% growth is there in the CV sales. That also helped us. Our new vehicle financing has gone up significantly. Meanwhile, our used also is growing because we are able to create more penetration in the deeper pockets. That also is growing.
In terms of market share, did we increase market share in used?
You mean the new vehicle market share?
No, used vehicle, used CV market share in financing.
The used vehicle.
Yeah.
Yeah. We are the largest player in second-hand vehicle. More the penetration, we are able to grow our business, so it is increasing. The rural demand is also quite good for CV now.
Sir, why did the used CV financing portfolio slow in this quarter? I mean, sequential growth rate is very tapered, whereas I think we were in a very good momentum for the last two to three years, but suddenly in this quarter, we have seen the momentum kind of come down significantly. I mean, generally, what did you see in the market to slow down so much?
There's no slowdown in CV. I don't see. Actually, we have grown in the CV.
No, PV, sir. Used PV.
Okay, sorry.
Yeah.
Passenger vehicle, there is nothing to say that, but maybe the focus was more on the CV, but I think we'll be able to grow that back and we'll be growing strongest in this financial year. You'll be able to see more than 20% growth in passenger vehicle.
Okay, this year? Okay.
Yeah. This year.
Sir, you said that in April there has been no impact so far, which means that can we presume that collections are going steady? That's number one. Secondly, again, just circling back to the asset quality, when I look at the flow forward and the movement in stage two and stage three, especially in stage two also. In CV and PV, there has been an increase in a usually strong quarter of collection. We want to understand, was there something specific somewhere in these two portfolios which led to slightly lesser collections than what you had budgeted and which is why there was a slight significant increase in stage two and stage three in this quarter?
See, in the retail lending, if somebody moves from the zero bucket to 30 bucket or 30 to 60, we normally don't take a stringent action on the customer. We also understand cash flow mismatches are quite common. There could be some reason, and marginal increase in these buckets doesn't really bother us because we are financing an asset, earning asset, which has a good resale value. If it is unsecured, then we should be worried, or if it is a personal loan, we should be worried. These are all the asset which has a good value and we normally fund conservatively for used vehicle at around 65% of the value, and new vehicle we finance around 80%, 85% of the value. We don't really rush to make a quote-unquote collection. We do reach out to the customer to remind him.
We are not unduly worried about it. A small increase in the stage two, we don't get upset.
Understood. Thank you and best of luck, sir.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Kunal Shah from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for taking the question. When we look at it in terms of the disbursements, what has been the proportion of this new vehicles now and where do we see it going through over next 18-24 months? Because we have been saying that the new vehicle will start contributing to the growth, but just want to gauge in terms of the proportion of disbursements, how it's scaling up.
No, I'll give you the exact number through Sanjay, but actually, our new vehicle proportions are increasing in our disbursement. I believe this is going to become the norm over the period because both in passenger vehicle and the commercial vehicle, new vehicle proportions are increasing, and the exact number will be given through Sanjay.
Broadly, would it be in the range of 10%-20% today, and do we see it scaling it up to 30%-35% over a period? Because that's something which can drive the growth by 3, 4 percentage points. Okay. Just wanted to gauge where we are and how you would look at over the next 18 to 24 months in terms of the proportion?
Yeah. It must be around 15% now on new, 15%-20% now. It may not go to 30%, 35% of the proportion. I know where you are arriving at, Kunal. You want to arrive at the overall growth, where it comes from.
Yeah. Broadly, or maybe if you can just give the breakdown of maybe the projected growth?
Yeah. From 15%-20%, it may grow by another 5%-10% over the next two quarters.
15%-20% of disbursements might go up by another 5-10 percentage points.
Yes
... on the new side. When you project this growth of 18-odd%, if you can just highlight in terms of across the product segments, how we are projecting it, maybe on the commercial vehicles, on the passenger vehicles. MSME, you indicated it will be 13%-15-odd%. Maybe tractors will come down from the base of 32%. What are the numbers when we look at the overall projected growth of 18%? Yeah.
See, in CV, it will be around 15%-18% overall growth, and on the passenger vehicle, it will be more than 20%. Gold, definitely since our base is small, the growth will be more than 30%. MSME, as I have put, 13%-15%. We may change the gear in the MSME as the situation normalizes. It all depends on quarter to quarter. 18% is broad for a full year. This particular quarter, the growth may not be 18%, it will be a little lesser because we are very watchful. As the situation becomes more positive, then we'll increase our growth rate.
Got it. Perfect. Margins, you are still saying maybe even though there would be the equity benefit which might flow through, we are still not seeing an improvement because any which ways we are not borrowing hugely. You said we would not need to borrow over the next few months, at least from the debt market side. Shouldn't it actually contribute to the overall NIMs in terms of the equity contribution itself?
It will be definitely, yes. The NIM will definitely expand. For the budget's sake, we have put a conservative budget. As we told in the beginning itself, some benefit will be passed on to the customer and some benefit will accrue to the bottom line.
Got it. Yeah. Lastly, in terms of the GS2 plus GS3 on a year-over-year basis, it's still been flat, okay? We have not seen any deterioration as such. Maybe quarter-over-quarter, there is still some increase out there in a few of the segments. But when we look at next year, given this kind of a situation of below average monsoon plus the geopolitical conflict, should we see the increase and maybe even on the credit cost side, would we see compared to what we have been earlier guiding for, would there be a risk to that number?
See, it depends upon how long the situation continues. Imagine if you had seen last quarter, last week, Friday, the Brent price came down to $85. By Monday morning, it crossed $100. That is the situation. How do you predict? It is difficult to predict, but as you rightly said, there are challenges. The cost of the manufacturing will go up, cost of the products will go up, the cost of the food prices will go up, and it will have some impact. How much impact and whether it will contribute to the slowdown of the economy? Because if the economy is still growing when the prices go up, and if they're able to pass on to the customer, then it will be a normal situation. It will not lead to any credit cost increase.
If the economy is closed off, then only we have a challenge. I believe it all depends upon how the economy will shape after two months. When the monsoon arrives, if the monsoon is reasonably decent, all these things will be normal for us. If the monsoon plays truant, then you have a challenge. This also will be reflected mostly after November, December, not immediately. Because immediately there will be a festival period, the demand will come back, nothing will be seen. Post November, December only, we will see some stress.
Perfect. This is very helpful, yeah. Thank you, and all the best. Yeah.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Arun Antony from JM Financial. Please go ahead.
Hi. My question was actually already answered. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as our last question for today. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Umesh G. Revankar for closing comments.
Thank you for joining the call today. As the last quarter was a very good quarter for us, and we hope to come out with similar good numbers next quarter also. However, there are a lot of ifs and buts in this quarter. First quarter of this financial year is going to be most difficult to predict, but we are quite hopeful to come out with good numbers. Thank you very much for joining.
Thank you. On behalf of Shriram Finance Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.