Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Belshia, moderator for the conference call. Welcome to Avanti Feeds Limited Q2 FY 2023 and 2024 investors' conference call. We have with us today Mr. C. Ramachandra Rao, Joint Managing Director; Mr. A. Venkata Sanjeev, Executive Director; Mr. Alluri Nikhilesh, Executive Director, Avanti Frozen Foods Pvt Ltd; Mr. D. V. S. Satyanarayana, CFO, Avanti Frozen Foods Pvt Ltd; Mrs. C. Santhilatha, GM Finance and Accounts; and Mr. Narendra Sharma, CS, Avanti Frozen Foods Pvt Ltd. As a reminder, all participants will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touch-tone telephone. Please note this conference is recorded. I would now like to hand over the floor to Mr. C.
Ramachandra Rao, Joint Managing Director. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Belshia. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I extend a warm welcome to all for this investors' conference call to review the unaudited financial results for Q2 FY 2024. Along with me are Mr. A. Venkata Sanjeev, Executive Director; Mr. Alluri Nikhilesh, Executive Director; Mrs. C. Santhilatha, General Manager Finance and Accounts; D.V.S. Satyanarayana, CFO; Narendra Sharma, Company Secretary; and other team members. The results of Q2 FY 2024 are already with you for some time now, and we are sure that we would have gone through them. However, I would like to share with you some of the key indicators relevant for our discussion today: consolidated financial results for Q2 FY 2024 and half-year 2024. The comparative performance of Q2 FY 2024 with that of Q1 FY 2024 and Q2 FY 2023 have been given in the presentations already circulated.
Gross income in Q2 FY 2024 is INR 1,312 crores as compared to INR 1,586 crores in the previous quarter, Q1 FY 2024, a decrease of INR 274 crores by 17%. Compared to Q2 FY 2023, gross income of INR 1,348 crores is a decrease of INR 36 crores, representing 2.6%. PBT is INR 113 crores in Q2 FY 2024 as compared to INR 157 crores in Q1 FY 2024, a decrease of INR 44 crores by 28%. Compared to Q2 FY 2023, PBT of INR 91 crores, there is an increase of INR 22 crores, representing 24%. In half-year FY 2024, the total income decreased to INR 2,898 crores from INR 2,930 crores in half-year FY 2023. The PBT in half-year FY 2024 increased to INR 270 crores from INR.
197 crores in the corresponding period of the previous year, mainly due to a decrease in the raw material cost and an increase in other income. The consolidated results indicate the net impact of several factors such as increase, decrease in income, expenditure, and exceptional items, etc., relating to feed and frozen food divisions, which have been discussed in the following divisional performance of the units individually. Let me take up the standalone financial results of feed division. First, the gross income for Q2 FY 2024 is INR 1,064 crores as compared to INR 1,351 crores in the previous quarter of Q1 2024, a decrease of INR 287 crores, mainly due to a decrease in the quantity of feed sales due to seasonal changes. The gross income in Q2 FY 2024 increased to INR 1,064 crores from INR.
1,040 crores in the corresponding quarter of Q2 FY 2023, an increase by INR 24 crores, representing 2% due to an increase in sales quantity by 1,830 metric tons and a decrease in raw material costs. PBT of Q2 FY 2024 is INR 86 crores as compared to INR 125 crores in Q1 FY 2024, a decrease of INR 39 crores, representing 30%, mainly due to a decrease in sales volume due to seasonal changes. The feed sales decreased to 127,800 metric tons in Q2 FY 2024 as compared to 165,507 metric tons in Q1 FY 2024. The PBT in Q2 FY 2024 has increased by INR 35 crores from INR 52 crores in Q2 FY 2023, representing 67%.
As you know, the cost of raw materials constitutes a major share of the cost of feed production, particularly raw materials like fish meal, soybean meal, and wheat flour. The average raw material cost in terms of percentage over feed sale price was 85.72% in Q2 FY 2024 as compared to 84.75% in Q1 FY 2024 and 88.11% in Q2 FY 2023, indicating a marginal increase by about 1% as compared to Q1 FY 2024 and a decrease of 2.5% in Q2 FY 2023. The increasing trend is continuing so far in the current quarter, that is, Q3 FY 2024, is concerned. The average cost takes into consideration the volatility of the major raw materials like fish meal, soybean meal, and wheat flour, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing during respective quarters. The Q2 FY 2024 rates of fish meal, soybean meal, and wheat flour are INR 127 per kg, INR
54 per kg soybean meal, and INR 29 per kg wheat flour, respectively. The prices of fish meal, soybean meal, and wheat flour were at INR 138 per kg, INR 54 per kg, and INR 33 per kg, respectively, as of date, that is, 18 November 2023. The fish meal price continues to be on the higher side due to export demand. The soybean meal price has been going up and down, and thereby the average soybean meal price has been about INR 54 per kg. It was expected that the soybean meal price may come down, at least marginally, due to the arrival of fresh crops of soybean from last month. However, so far, there has been no such indication. The MSP on soybean meal has also been increased by the government.
In the case of wheat flour, the price has been on an increasing trend, with the price being INR 33 per kg from INR 29 per kg earlier. This wheat also, the Government of India has increased the minimum support price. To sum up, I would like to share with you that the prices of these raw materials, along with related products like fish oil, soy oil, lecithin, etc., keep changing from time to time depending upon the seasonality, production, global trends, etc., which has a direct impact on the raw material cost of the feed beyond the company's control. Let me compare the six months' performance of the current year with the corresponding period previous year. In HY FY 2022, the total income increased to INR 2,415 crores from INR 2,352 crores in half-year FY 2023 due to an increase in feed sales and other income.
The PBT in HY FY 2022 increased to INR 212 crores from INR 130 crores in the corresponding period of the previous year, mainly due to a decrease in raw material costs and an increase in other income. Let me discuss about the processing division. The gross income for Q2 FY 2024 is INR 253 crores as compared to INR 237 crores in Q1 2024.
ನೀರು ಮಾತಾಡೇ ಗಿಟ್ಟಿ, ನೀ ಕಾಲ್ನೀ ಹೋಪ್...
Hello?
Sorry, sir, please go ahead.
Yes. The gross income for Q2 FY 2024 is INR 253 crore as compared to INR 237 crore in Q1 FY 2024, an increase by INR 16 crore, representing 7%, mainly due to an increase in sales quantity by 11%. The gross income for Q1 FY 2024 includes sales-based incentive of INR 6.85 crore received under the Production Linked Incentive Scheme, PLI scheme. The gross income in Q2 FY 2024 decreased to INR 253 crore from INR 310 crore during Q2 FY 2023, a decrease of INR 57 crore, representing 19% year-on-year. The sales volume during Q2 FY 2024 decreased to 2,950 metric tons from 3,492 metric tons in Q2 FY 2023, a decrease by 542 metric tons. The PBT before exceptional items for Q2 FY 2024 is INR 31.50 crore as compared to INR 32.10 crore in Q1 FY 2024, a decrease by INR 1 crore.
The PBT in Q1 FY 2024 is higher than the PBT in Q2 FY 2024, in spite of an increase in sales during Q2 FY 2024 due to the inclusion of a sales-based incentive of INR 6.85 crores received under the Production Linked Incentive in Q1 FY 2024, relating to earlier financial year 2021-2022. The PBT in Q2 FY 2024 is INR 31 crores, a decrease from INR 39 crores in the corresponding quarter Q2 FY 2023, as there is a decrease in sales quantity by 542 metric tons and a decrease in average sales realization by INR 37.70 per kg in Q2 FY 2024. Coming to the comparison of performance for six months, the gross income for six months during FY 2024 was INR 491 crores as compared to INR 583 crores in the corresponding six-month period of the previous year. The decrease of INR
92 crores in the gross income during the first six months of the financial year 2024 is mainly a decrease in the quantity of sales by 1,144 metric tons. The PBT in six months FY 2024 is INR 63.60 crores as compared to INR 63.10 crores in the half-year ended six months in financial year 2023. The marginal increase in PBT is due to a decrease in the cost of raw materials consumed and ocean freight rates . Provisions for recall expenses in the financial statements: The company has not made any additional provision for recall expenses in Q2 FY 2024 since full provision has already been made in the financial statements till 31 December 2022, against the total claims received from the buyers. The status of the product recall is as is: One. The value of claims received and charged to the P&L account is INR 35.62 crores.
Amount of claims settled up to 31 March 2023: INR 32.57 crores. Amount of claims settled during Q1 FY 2024: INR 2.06 crores. Balance claims provision in the book of accounts as of 30 September 2023 is INR 0.99 crores. As regards to the product liability claims for bodily injury caused by consuming the company's contaminated product under the recall, the company has submitted a revised claim for the claims received and settled by the company to the insurance company. The surveyor has confirmed that the claim will be processed by the insurance company on or before 30 November 2023. Since the liability has been covered under the Commercial General Liability Insurance policy, no provision has been made in the financial statements of the company.
Shrimp production and feed consumption in FY 2022 and the company's plans for FY 2023: On the basis of estimated shrimp production in 2023, the estimated feed consumption is about 10.5-11 lakh metric tons. The company's feed sales during the previous year, FY 2022, were about 5.41 lakh metric tons as compared to 4.73 lakh metric tons in FY 2021, an increase by 68,000 metric tons. However, the company's estimated shrimp feed sales were 4.97 lakh metric tons in FY 2023, down by 44,000 metric tons when compared with FY 2022. The company's estimated production and sale of shrimp feed in the calendar year 2023 is about 4.9 lakh metric tons, at the same level as in the previous year, when the total Indian feed consumption is down by 15%.
The company has been able to maintain its production and sales, though there was an overall decrease in the country. Now, the country's vannamei shrimp exports in terms of value declined in FY 2023 compared to FY 2022 by 8.11% from $5,234.36 million to $4,008.99 million. The country's overall exports of frozen shrimp in quantitative terms for FY 2023 were 711,099 metric tons as compared to 728,123 metric tons in FY 2022, a decline of 17,024 metric tons, representing 2.34%. The company's shrimp exports during the financial year 2023 were about 12,497 metric tons as compared to 12,836 metric tons in the financial year 2022, a decrease by 339 metric tons. It is estimated that the export during FY 2024 would be around 12,000 metric tons. The frozen foods division is in the process of expanding its capacity.
The new processing plant and cold storage unit at Krishnapuram is in the East Godavari District, with a capacity of 7,000 metric tons. The status is 80% of the civil works are completed. Plant and machinery installations are in progress. About 50% of the installations are completed. Pre-processing trial run has commenced in Q2 FY 2024, expecting commercial operations from March 2024. As you know, the company has been selected under the two incentive schemes of the Government of India. One is the Sales-Based Incentive under the Production Linked Incentive scheme , and the Grant-in-Aid under the Operation Greens Long-Term Interventions Scheme. The Production Linked Incentive Scheme, the company is eligible for an incentive of 6% on value-added products at 10% on incremental sales over a period of seven years from financial year 2021-2022 to FY 2026-2027, subject to a maximum incentive of INR.
79.44 crores, with a minimum of 5% CAGR in sales. The company has received an incentive of INR 6.84 crores pertaining to FY 2022. The FY 2023 incentive claim application is being filed on or before 31 December 2023. The next scheme is the Operation Greens. Approval from the Government of India for Grant-in-Aid for the proposed investment in a new shrimp processing plant at Krishnapuram is received in December 2022. The maximum Grant-in-Aid under this scheme is INR 10 crores. The first installment of Grant-in-Aid is due from the Ministry. The company has submitted all the relevant documents in this regard.
Now, coming to the industry and company's forecast for 2024, it may be noticed that during the first half of FY 2024, the shrimp feed sales of the company increased marginally by 2%, while the processed shrimp exports declined to 5,608 metric tons in half-year FY 2024 as compared to 6,752 metric tons in the corresponding period of the previous year. However, as per the analysis report published by the Rabobank on Food and Agribusiness, the global survey results forecast year-on-year shrimp production growth of 4.8% in 2024, surpassing 2022's peak volumes after an expected modest decline of 0.4% in 2023 over 2022. Further, an upturn in the U.S. shrimp import market is beginning to look more real on the basis of the latest update by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of its seafood trade database.
The upturn is being witnessed for the past three months after a 13 consecutive months of year-on-year decrease. However, the price continues to be down by about 10%-15% on the earlier average price. India continues to lead all source nations, sending U.S. 28,992 metric tons of shrimp worth $226.3 million in September 2023, 6% more volume and 5% less revenue than September 2022. However, the average price is down by 11% to $7.81 per kg from $8.74 per kg seen earlier. As per the report of the Commerce Ministry, the exports in August 2023 indicated a 17% year-on-year growth in farmed shrimp exports. In the light of the information available and the trends, it indicates an increase in exports in the future that may be expected.
As far as sales of shrimp feed are concerned, as I stated earlier, sales during the first half of financial year 2024 registered a marginal increase over the corresponding period of the previous year. As per the field reports, shrimp culture is being continued, and shrimp feed sales of the company during the calendar year 2024 are likely to be at more or less the same level as in the previous calendar year 2023, in spite of the anticipated decrease in total shrimp feed sales in India by 10%-15% in the calendar year 2023 compared to feed sales in the calendar year 2022. To sum up, the rest of the current year appears optimistic for the shrimp industry.
Now, coming to the diversification of the company's plan into pet food and pet care products, you may be aware that the company has incorporated a subsidiary with the name Avanti Pet Care Pvt Ltd as a special-purpose vehicle for the manufacture of pet food, mainly dogs and cats, and other pet care products for catering to the domestic market. The required technical know-how is being provided by Bluefalo Petcare Co., Ltd., Thailand, a reputed pet food and pet care products manufacturer in Thailand. A memorandum of understanding has been entered into with them, which will be followed by the transfer of a technical know-how agreement and a joint venture agreement in due course, which is expected to be the latest by the end of this year, end of this year, that is, December 31.
The company will be investing 51% of the equity capital of the joint venture company, and the balance will be invested by Bluefalo Petcare Co., Ltd. and the other investors, the details of which are being worked out. An agency has been appointed for undertaking market research and survey for the demand and supply of pet food and pet care products to evaluate and decide on specific products which are in demand in India. The report is scheduled to be received by the end of November 2023, that is, the end of this month, providing a basis for production and sales planning. Further details of the project will be reported to you at the appropriate time.
Coming to Fish Feed, as reported earlier, a senior executive has been appointed to undertake a survey and evaluate the demand and supply of fish feed of various species in India, with the objective to set up a fish feed manufacturing facility by the company in respect of such species which have demand in India. In the meantime, the company has entered into a transfer of technology agreement with the Thai Union Feedmill for providing technical know-how for the manufacture of fish feed in India. Basing on the outcome of the market research and survey, the fish feed required for the India market would be decided to go ahead with the manufacturing of the same. Now, after giving the brief developments in the last quarter, now I would like to take up the question. We would like to take up the question and answer them.
Thank you, sir.
Okay, yes.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad and wait for your turn to ask the question. If you would like to withdraw your request, you may do so by pressing star and one again. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have any question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad.
Okay.
The first question comes from Faisal Hawa from H.G. Hawa & Co. Please go ahead.
How much more expansion is now due, and what is the kind of capex that we will see in the next one or two years? And how much will it add to our revenues? You know, what is the drop to sales for the expansion that we will now do?
To answer this, the expansion, the company in one news that which is already we have undertaken for the shrimp processing, which will commence at the end of this year or financial year, so with the 7,000 tons capacity. And our end of our is to make maximum utilization of the capacity, and particularly the value-added products. So that is going to give you the higher sales volume, exports volume. That is one area. And the second area is that the Petc are, but it will take time. We are expecting that it should be completed by the end of 2024, that it will take about a year to complete the project. And from 1st January 2025, we would be able to commence the sales in the Pet care products. So coming to the feed, we already have the sufficient capacity.
Last year, we had the slowdown of the shrimp culture because of the unremunerative prices and so many other reasons. Now, since the market is picking up, particularly the U.S. exports to the U.S. are increasing. The culture is also now briskly going on, even though it is not the normal season. Keeping in that, we expect that coming year, 2024, the sales of the feed also will go up to the higher capacity. The value-added products and shrimp exports, these two will form the majority of the export sales and domestic sales in the next year.
What is the trend that we are expecting FY 2024-2025?
See, as we know that, particularly this industry, we can't exactly, precisely say this is going to be the turnover, the figures we cannot give. But one thing what we can say is that things are improving. See, initially, if you remember during our earlier last quarter's call, we were having a very sort of not pessimistic view, rather on the entire industry in the next one year, and perhaps even in 2024 also. But however, thanks to the improvement in the market, U.S. market pickup and exports, and also the culture, so we are expecting that things will be much better and more optimistic in the rest of this year and also 2024. So that is an indication what we can give at this point of time.
So once we have the figures for 31st March 2024, that is this financial year, and the most important thing is how the next season starts. See, normally, the shrimp culture season starts at the end of January or February. But as it stands today, the field report is that the farmers are enthusiastic about the next year. And soon after the harvest of the current crop, they will start as early as possible. They would like to start next year. That is what the indication we give. Perhaps after 31st, that is the next quarter, we would be able to give you an idea about what is the picture that is going to emerge in 2024-2025, that is, financial year.
Our market cap to sales, our valuation is at the lowest that it has been over the last one decade or so. Our biggest concern over our stock is how we utilize our cash reserves. So why do we not send a small open market buyback from the market to really use our cash also as well as adjust the valuation issue? This is the best decision we have been in the last.
I think this question has been we are getting almost in every phone call. We have been explaining the reason because the buyback would not result in any advantage to the investors at all. Because the money which we are using for our working capital is helping us a lot to make whatever the value, the profitability of the company. If you go for bank financing, which is very, very expensive, so instead of going for bank financing, we are using these particular reserves, the funds which we have, we are keeping on using them at the optimum level. We are able to get much, much better the prices for the raw materials as well as from the banks. We don't borrow. If you look at our balance sheet, we don't have any debts to the company, to the banks, for working capital limits.
That gives a great advantage. On the other hand, by just giving 1% or 2% or 5% buyback, it is not going to help anybody, neither the company nor the investor. It is always an advantage to keep the resources as and when we want. Now, for example, the Pet care, we don't have to invest anything. Neither the collaborators nor the company is interested in borrowing it because so many conditions attach to it, the interest, all these things would make the project much higher than what it is. We have the great advantage of the funds to immediately implement and go ahead with the production as early as possible. We need not have to depend upon the bank borrowing. In fact, this is being appreciated by even the collaborators also.
So because they also would not like to go for bank borrowings, they always prefer only better to use our own resources for any expansions and all. So as and when we decide, it should be readily available. On the other hand, whatever the surplus that is remaining is we are giving for working capital limits because seasonality of the industry is one of the, again, major concerns because, see, the seasons keep changing and the aquaculture also keeps changing. So what is there in the first quarter is not there in the second quarter. So first quarter spillover comes in the next quarter. So we must be ready with the funds so that we can use them for raw material procurement. And particularly when the prices are low, we are able to keep higher stocks and take advantage of the now, for example, soybean meal, fresh crop is coming.
We are waiting for the price to come down. If they come down immediately, we buy quantities for normal cost. If you keep 15 days, we keep more than one month. So that gives a lot of advantage for us. That is the reason why this has been several times discussed at the board level. But somehow, the board considers that it is a wise thing to go ahead with this policy.
Okay, thank you, sir.
Thank you. Next question comes from Nitin Awasthi from InCred Equities. Please go ahead.
Hello sir, am I audible?
Yes sir.
So firstly, I would like to recall that, like you mentioned in the opening remarks, that the sales are starting to pick up in the last two months. At least that's what the data is showing. The exports from India are picking up. What would you attribute this fact to? Is it that problems in Ecuador where they are finally backing off because of their internal issues or something else?
I think, Nikhilesh, can you please take up this question? Nikhilesh?
Hi Nitin, am I audible?
Yeah, yeah.
Yes, yes. Hi Nitin, I hope you're well. So to answer that question, it's not due to any other factor, but the reason being that the first half of the year, the imports have been down as data shows. But in the second half, especially during this period, the product for Thanksgiving and Christmas goes in. So that's why you see an uptick in the shipments to the U.S. in particular. I hope that was done.
Yeah, that fairly answers it. Secondly, because of this uptick, we are seeing an optimistic outlook, at least building up for the next year, next harvest, calendar year harvest. However, the two raw materials that you guys use, fish meal and soya, fish meal particularly, even now, seems to be going better because I think all the supplies from India have been absorbed by China, which we have not seen in many years. And it's been abnormal prices that we are seeing. So profitability seems to be very largely impacted because of that. At least going forward, we think that prices of INR 150 a kg are not very far-fetched.
Yeah, true. What you said is correct.
See, the profitability is impacted, but we are making a lot of efforts to convince the government that you make a provision by whatever the procedure you call, whether it is on the imposing restriction on exports or discouraging by withdrawing the export incentives or whatever it is. So the shrimp meal that is produced in India is first made available to the local industries because this is a value-added product. What we are doing is we are producing the shrimps and we are exporting the shrimps, and the value-added product is more advantageous to the government. But however, as you know, we have made representations to the government, and we are awaiting. This is a thing which has to be answered by only the government because we, as consumers, do not have much choice.
Because if you're a fish meal exporter, the producer says that, "When I am getting so much there, why should I give it to you?" That's what at least Avanti Feeds has got a better relationship with most of the manufacturers. At least when they don't have export orders, they first prefer Avanti. So we have been able to keep our requirements getting. But the price is something which is very difficult. Only marginally, they reduce the price compared to their exports. That is the only thing which we could do at this point of time. Hopefully, the government would realize the necessity for regulating these exports of fish meal to other countries. Most of what happened is Southeast Asian countries, which they consume the fish meal, the Chile and Peru, the transportation, and also of late, there has been a decrease in the fish catches in Chile and Peru.
That also has contributed to some extent to the shortage of fish meal in those countries. So added to that, the cost-effective fish meal procured from India, that is the reason why most of the Southeast Asian countries are importing from India the fish meal. I think that's what we can do at this point of time, sir.
On this front, this seems to be a very serious factor which could actually hold the growth of the industry for no fault of its own. So I think the action should be taken from the government side. Good that you are representing. I think the representation should grow because the numbers speak for itself. One country has sucked out more fish meal from India this year than I think four or five years combined exports.
Yeah, see, in fact, our CMD, A. Indra Kumar, he represented twice. He went to Delhi, met the Finance Ministry and also the Commerce Ministry, and requested them to do something to regulate it. It's not necessary you completely ban, but you can always put the parity. You can bring the level playing this thing for Indian consumers also. So if you make a big difference, that is not going to help the domestic industry. Though they realize, but it's all the government procedures and all the immediately they said when we are getting foreign exchange, why should we discourage them? So that is the stand the government always takes because they are getting foreign exchange. There's a valuable foreign exchange. So naturally, they say, why should we put restrictions? This is what is happening.
In a way, it will not happen, but one day definitely they realize that how it helps the domestic industry to increase the same foreign exchange much more, multiple number of times it can get it if shrimp is exported. That has to be realized by the various levels at the government. The policy has to be brought whereby they can at least put some quota or something like that or discourage these incentives. That is duty drawback, RoDTEP, and all these things can be discouraged so that a portion of the production is given to the Indian consumers.
All right, sir. So last question from my side. The India Shrimp Tariff Act has been introduced in the Senate in the U.S. Any thoughts on this? Why is India being targeted specifically? Because I think Ecuador's share has also been considerably up in exports to the U.S. However, they are getting treaties being signed, trade deals being signed by them, and tariffs being reduced. And on the other hand, you have Indian Shrimp Tariff Act, which brings a I mean, it just makes the business unfeasible if this act goes through.
Nikhilesh, can you take this question, please?
Could you repeat what you're saying, Nitin? I'm sorry, I couldn't hear the first part.
No worries, no worries. I'll just repeat it. So there's this act which has been introduced in the Senate in the U.S., the India Shrimp Tariff Act. Meanwhile, there are also imports from Ecuador, which is a competitor to the U.S., that have been increasing multiplied. Whereas with Ecuador, the U.S. has been signing trade agreements and trade deals, lowering their tariffs. They are introducing bills like this, which will actually make business in the shrimp processing industry impossible if bills like this go through. So what are your thoughts on that?
Thank you, Nitin. Maybe I would like you to double-check on the information. The duty, it's not the Indian Shrimp Tariff. It's called the CVD or the Countervailing Duty that's being put by the U.S. on shrimp from India, Ecuador, Indonesia, Vietnam. So all the major shrimp processing countries. And in addition to the Countervailing Duty, I see that Indonesia and Ecuador will be subject to even Anti-Dumping Duty. So I feel that this is not so India-specific, but it's more towards the general shrimp producing countries. In my opinion, the duty which is proposed to be included if everything passes, which also, again, there's so many bills introduced. So not all of them go through, right? So if it does get introduced, it's going to be a country-specific duty. So we need to see how this develops. But it's not India-specific.
It is a big question mark right now, but this is an external factor which is the U.S. government governing this. We are waiting for the developments and we're following and taking the necessary precautions. Again, I just want to assure you this is not India-specific.
Understood. So heartening to hear that. Thank you. That's all from my side.
Thank you. Next question comes from Jasdeep Walia from Clockvine Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi sir, thanks for taking my question. So I just want your thought from how does cost of production compare between India and Ecuador? First at the raw shrimp level and then at the processed shrimp level.
Nikhilesh, I'll take that question. So specifics on the cost structure, I'm not 100% aware because it's not usually clearly disclosed. We just have information on people giving us information by word of mouth. But looking at it, the cost structure, the cost of the farm gate shrimp in Ecuador is lower than India. This is due to a variety of factors because most of the processors in Ecuador are actually also large farmers, right? So they are controlling the farm gate price and doing a vertical integration play where it's unclear what is the actual cost of production. But on processed shrimp, definitely Ecuador is very cost competitive. They are the biggest competitor to Indian shrimp today.
But again, we play in different—I would say Avanti in particular plays in a different game compared to Ecuador because Ecuador just focuses on very commodity products like Headless Shell On or Head On Shell On . They're just basically taking the shrimp and selling it where we focus more on value-added play. Nevertheless, there is intense competition from Ecuador. And the processed shrimp on the commodity products, they are more attractive than India. But again, time and again, we've been saying in the last few years, we focus on moving away from commodity to value-added products, which is beneficial for us. I hope that I answered your question.
Sir, in your earlier comment, you used to say that on the processed shrimp side, India is more competitive because the cost of labor is lower in India. So now you said that Ecuador is more competitive. So can you explain this dichotomy?
Yeah, I can explain that. So Ecuador has become the largest producer in the past two years. So it's not something that we know the last decade. It's come up to be the largest producer in the last two years. So that is the reason the commentary has changed today. They have expanded their production from 600 million to 1 billion to about 1.5 billion now. That is the target production for this year. So they've almost doubled every year for the last two to three years. So that's the distance that you see. But we are very competitive on certain products which Ecuador does not focus on. Like I was saying in my previous comment, Ecuador focuses on value I mean, commodity shrimp where we focus on value-added shrimp.
So by value-added shrimp, I understand one category of product is the breaded shrimp or, let's say, ready-to-cook kind of shrimp. So there I understand you have a breaded.
Yeah, so there I understand you have a breaded.
But what about basic processed shrimp where you just devein the shrimp, clean the shrimp, pack it, and send it for export? So there also, you're saying Ecuador is more competitive.
No, I would say over there, we would be part to part. We must understand that on a general basis, you see that India has a population of about 1.5 billion people today. That Ecuador, if I'm not wrong, is not even a tenth of what we have in terms of manpower. So we are able to process more cut, peeled, deveined shrimp compared to Ecuador. And coming to breaded and ready-to-eat products, they're still far away.
Got it. Got it. My second question is that I've been reading that the prices of beef in the U.S. have increased significantly. Also, prices of pork in China have increased significantly over the last couple of months. So in your experience, you would have seen these kind of trends earlier also. What do you think will be the impact of these price changes on the shrimp consumption in the U.S.? Does it lead to faster clearing of inventory of shrimp or it doesn't mean much?
So it's very difficult to say because you pinpointed only one factor, which is the price increase in different protein. But you must also there are so many other factors. I'm not sure if you came across the chairman of JP Morgan who recently said that the disposable income of the U.S. middle class is at all-time low. The savings that they made through the pandemic, etc., they're quickly diluting through it. So there are so many factors that affect it. As of now, I would say there is no change in our forecast for shrimp sales in the next six months.
Got it, sir. Thank you. That's our ultimate statement.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have any question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. I repeat, ladies and gentlemen, if you have any question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. We have a follow-up question from Faisal Hawa from H.G. Hawa & Co. Please go ahead.
Yes, our business is constantly throwing up cash and we are very much debt averse. Wouldn't be a right assumption to make that we will keep on making small expansions in capacity wherever we see some areas where it can be sold easily? This way, we will at least double revenue every 4-5 years.
This has been always the way we look for the expansion provided. It creates value addition for the investors, the investment. So naturally, as you know, we have been trying almost like last five, six years to continuously look out for a suitable product for expansion, diversification. Of course, fish feed has been discussed quite often. But there is a reason why we did not take up that fish feed a couple of years ago because there was a proper demand for the product. We should be able to make profit out of that business. So that's why we have been keeping at the appropriate time. That is the answer which we have been giving in all our earlier calls. This is how we are going it. See, the expansion we are ready to do provided, it has some advantage to the company and the investors. Definitely will do that.
There is no time limit for us like that, but we can always.
In the last 5-6 years, has there been any expansion where we have fallen behind deadlines and not been able to start the production on time?
No, there was no such thing. Only one occasion that feed that Bandapuram, there was a small because of the post-Corona time, the shipments did not come. There was about 3-4 months delay. But for that, there was never such a situation. We were ready. The only thing is the shipments took time, 3-4 months because of the availability of vessels and all those things at the time. It was rather very complicated issues were there at the time. So that is the only occasion we did not have any real impact on account of that.
Debtor days are up a bit. So is that a seasonal matter or there's more to it?
Seasonal matter.
Seasonal matter. It is purely seasonal. We will be always in single-digit debtor days.
Yes. Yes, yes.
Thank you. That will be the last question for the day. Ladies and gentlemen, we would like to come to the end of the conference. We appreciate the interest from the investors and analysts for the participation. Thank you. If you need any further information, you may connect with Ms. Lakshmi Sharma and Mr. Narendra Sharma of Avanti Feeds Limited at investors@avantifeeds.com. Thank you for your participation and for using Dursaba's conference call service. You may disconnect your lines now. Thank you and have a good day.