Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Timken India Q4 FY25 Post-Result Conference Call, hosted by Avendus Spark. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mukesh Saraf. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Sasha. Good evening, everyone. Mukesh Saraf here from Avendus Spark. Appreciate everybody logging in. From the management team, I'm pleased to host Mr. Sanjay Koul, Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. Avishrant Keshava, Whole Time Director, Mr. Sujit Kumar Patnaik, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now hand over the call to Mr. Koul for his opening remarks, post which we'll begin with the Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Mukesh. Thank you very much. Thanks, everybody joining. So first is that, obviously, today we have both Avishrant and Sujit Patnaik. Sujit is our new CFO, and Avishrant has moved to some other senior responsibilities, and he remains our Whole Time Director. And I'm pleased to say that the sales for the Q4 was INR 940 crores, which was almost 4.7% more versus the same period last year. And the previous quarter was a little bit sluggish, so it was 40% over the last quarter. So we regained our peace there. And the profit before tax grew 8% YOY and almost doubled versus the last quarter. And margin also improved almost 70 basis points YOY, and they were almost 7% favorable to the last quarter. So overall, our January, February, March of 2025 was pretty good, I should say.
We can always do more, but overall, it was pretty good. Also, I'm happy to announce that we've been discussing about it. We have discussed the GGB, which the Timken Company took over, and we have started the TIL, will start investing in the first line for the plain bearings in the composite material, which is alternate material called FRP. So that line will start investing in that. And previously, also, you must have seen that we are expanding our rail as well. So pretty happy with these due diligences to cater to both global and local market. And depending on the success of this plain bearing, which is of composite material, one step at a time will lead to further steps. So with that, I would start directly for the questions and catch up with some more remarks later on.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handhelds while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Abhishek Jain from AlfAcc urate Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity and congrats for a strong set of numbers. Sir, my first question on the segment-wise revenue in FY25, if you can give the numbers of the mobile distribution and process and export numbers in FY25?
So, Mr. Jain, you want for the quarter or you want for the whole year?
Full year.
Gotcha. Full year. So full year, as you must have seen in the results, we did INR 3,147 crore, and rail was 24.5% of that. And the mobile was 18.5% of that. Distribution was 18.7% of that. Process, stationary equipment was 19.3%, and then the exports were 18.6%, and there was a little bit of export incentive, small portion, less than 1% there. So that comprised of the INR 3,147 for FY 2024-25. Now, compared to 2023-2024, it was almost 8.2% YOY growth, and rail grew by 17%, mobile almost 7%, distribution by 11%, process by 8%, and inter-company which is exports by almost 3%. So that was a jump of 8% over the previous financial year 2023-2024. And from INR 2,909 crore, we went to INR 3,147 crore.
Okay, sir, and in the railway segment, basically, in this quarter, we have also seen a growth despite the higher base. So just wanted to understand how the order book looks right now and how do you see the growth in FY26 in the railway segment?
So, rail order, as I have been always saying, that there is going to be a steady, solid growth. It won't be like a hockey stick, but it will keep on growing. As you know, the rolling stock is also introducing heavy haul a little bit more. So that is going on. And the order book, generally the market order book, I'm not talking about Timken, the market order book in this segment of freight, locomotive, metro, passenger is pretty decent. And obviously, we are the leaders in the rail and is okay. So obviously, we are pretty much happy and on the front foot for the rail. So we are running six to eight shifts for our rail lines. And as I previously also announced, we are expanding with some state-of-the-art high-tech European machines for further enhancing the capacity for our rail for both Indian Railways and exports.
So in this year, rail growth was around 17%. So can we expect a double-digit growth going ahead in the railway in FY26?
So we always aspire and work hard to the best possible growth. The market is not giving us any bad signals yet. Now, exactly what could be the growth, quarter on quarter, we'll see. But currently, it is not a hockey stick, and we are obviously providing solution and further technology enhancement in this area. So overall, I think we are not worried about rail.
Okay, and in export, there was a slowdown in the last couple of quarters. How is the progress right now, and how would be the outlook in FY26?
In general, if you look at the global market, Europe is sluggish. U.S. market is also the North American market is okay on rail, but not on the other areas. South America market is okay. Australian market is a little bit better. South African market is good. Mining is picking up there. China, we saw that in April, it bounced back, and we'll see how May goes. So there is pretty much a good green shoots in China market. ASEAN is down. So overall, exports will remain still not very, very buoyant. Some markets, small markets are good. Large markets are sluggish. So we'll have to wait and see. But those large markets are not very buoyant currently. We'll have to see. We don't need to discuss the tariff at all, but there is obviously everybody is Apple guys are shipping four times what they could ship in these 90 days.
Others have a different story. So we'll have to wait and see. But I would say it's a mixed bag. Small markets are showing promise. Large market is not still showing a lot of promise.
Thank you, sir. That's all for me, sir.
Thank you, Mr. Jain.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Viraj from Securities Investment Management Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. First, can you just repeat? Sorry for the repetition, but if you can just repeat the percentage revenue mix for segment and the growth rates.
Yeah, no problem. This is the 24, 25, FY24, 25, over FY23, 24. We did rail of INR 770 crore. And mobile, we did 584, distribution 587, process. I'm talking in crores, process 606, and exports of 585. This is the whole year. And in terms of growth over the previous year, rail grew by 17%, mobile was flattish, distribution grew by 11%, process grew by 8 point something%, and exports grew by 2.8%. And export incentive is minor, which went down. So overall, from INR 2909 crore, we went up to 3147.8, which was 8.2% growth YOY.
And in terms of rail, can you probably give some more color in terms of the tendering activity? What do you see in India and exports? And similarly, more granularity in terms of the competitive landscape. Any color on that?
Yeah. Rail is never going to be hockey stick. So slow and steady growth will be there. So passenger, obviously, with Vande Bharat introduction, getting rid of old Schlieren and bogies, so that will remain there. Class Ks are getting more and more into the Dedicated Freight Corridors. Old rolling stock is getting changed. And metro is obviously not a big ticket item, but many cities are introducing metros, including now the Bangalore, Indore, Bombay; all that is happening. Locomotives, we are also starting to produce locomotive bearings for electric locomotives for the suspension unit. So I would say that rail is on a nice path, but it is not a hockey stick. And then spending has to; it is also government-driven. So it is all about how much government wants to spend more and more in this. And the current plans are pretty much okay.
The tendering from the Railway Board is also happening, and similarly, from the private wagon builders is also happening, so rail is pretty much okay. On export, as I said earlier, the big markets are sluggish. I would say America is a little bit upish, 1%. Europe is down. South America is upish. Australia is a little bit upish. South Africa is upish. ASEAN is down. China, overall, was down till March. April was showing some good signs. Export for us, I would say, is not going to be great for anybody, and everybody is not going to be that buoyant. Manufacturing PMI last month, you saw that it went down a little bit, and so exports is going to be a little bit of a challenge till the world settles down a little bit.
So these geopolitical activities settle down, and the business is ready to invest money. The tariff was settled down. So all that is there. So export, I am not buoyant about export, but domestic is pretty much okay. And there are good pockets of rail exports happening, so they are okay. So overall, the Indian market, I would say GDP growth of 6%, which everybody knows. And then this rail export, which is a little bit better than these small bearings. But exports overall would be sluggish for sure.
Just two questions. On the competitive intensity part for rail, can you elaborate? We talked about leadership position for us, but if you can just give some color what kind of market share we have in different segments and whether any new players have entered the space?
The competition is always there. They were always there. And we have all the three large players, international players. One domestic player is very much there. They were always there, and they will be always there. And we have been all we have devised these supply chains now 30 years back. And we have invested in time for expansion. Like I said last time also, we have further expanded in rails, and we are very careful with our investments. And we make sure that there is a return on investment. So competition is there, and we have both the technology and the sunk cost and the depreciated and the world-class supply chain. And we are introducing further tech products into the system. And with the plain bearings, there are a lot of applications in railways, which will look and work closely. So good competition is always good.
It will keep on pushing you to further enhance your technology capability. So I'm not losing any sleep on rail competition currently.
Just last question. On this renewable piece, right, a couple of years back, the parent had acquired Cone Drive and even GGB Bearing Technology. What we hear, a lot of other players getting orders for solutions for solar in addition to wind. Any color you can give for Timken? Is there any play for us?
So GGB is a plain bearings. Who do plain bearings with both alternate materials and other alloy steel? It is a high-tech, high-technology company. And these plain bearings go in very varied applications, both automotive, electrical, EVs, and industrial as well. So we are investing in this board meeting. We started the first step, the first line of plain bearings in alternate material, composite material, will be installing hopefully by the end of this year or maybe early next year. So we have started doing that. And on the Cone Drive side, the technology is available for us. We started assembling product in our Bharuch, and we have started supplying to Tata Solar, for example. So we are testing those markets, and we are working closely on that, how to leverage that technology. And I think we did some sale of 300, 400 units.
It is not a big number, but a small number. But to your point, yes, it is a market where now India also needs to make sure that the solar, the sun is harnessed properly. That means you cannot use the fixed panels. They need to be a little bit rotating. That is where the Cone Drive comes into picture. And we have the technology, and it is similar to making engineering products. And as I said, that we already assembled 3,400 sets and sold to Tata Power Solar, and we are looking at that. So yes, so we are moving ahead in both these roll-on technology implementation and the first line for the plain bearings with composite materials in India.
How large is the market in India and globally? Just last question, I'll come back and queue.
The plain bearing market is more than $100 million market in India. So it is a pretty decent market. It also has application in wind. Some of the first-stage gear can use plain bearings. It has application in railways. It has application in automotive, EV. So it is a $100 million market in the whole kind of setup. Now, it is a technology product. A lot of people use simple bushing currently, which is obviously not the right solution. So it's a nice market, but it is a diverse and very fragmented market. So it needs a lot of value sale.
Okay. Thank you, Mr. Sanjay.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Vimal Gohil from Alchemy Capital Management. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for the opportunity, sir. So just wanted to check on if you can just give us some update on the Bharuch, how is the ramp-up? What kind of utilization levels have we reached in this quarter?
Yeah. We are going to capacitate these lines by the end of the first quarter of this financial year. By the end of June, we'll start really producing. Currently, we have installed the CRB lines. We have installed the small SRB lines. Large SRB lines are still on the sea, and hopefully they are there by July. PPAPs are happening. In fact, today, we shipped the first PPAP to the customer. Utilization, the demand is there. I think at the end of this year, so ramp-up, PPAPs, all that, we should be able to reach around 45-odd% of capacity utilization. Then from next year, calendar year, it would become, every month will become better than the previous month.
Fair enough. Sir, just in terms of demand for commercial vehicles, what are you seeing? I think OEMs are indicating and various agencies are indicating a mid-single-digit kind of growth. So if you can give your outlook on the pure automotive business, domestic.
Yeah. So on the commercial vehicle, it is going to be four odd % growth.
Understood.
So commercial vehicles will go at that. There is a diverse. There is a little bit of these big buses and all that. That might grow. The spoke might grow a little bit more. And there is some heavy vehicle demand also. Tipper coming though, so this looking like that. But it will be the way the commercial vehicle would grow that same 4-5%. On the off-highway, tractor had a good sale in April, actually. Tractor had a nice sale in April in India. So let us see. But it is not going to be 2018 on commercial vehicle yet.
Understood. And sir, just coming back to Bharuch, you mentioned 45% utilization levels for F26N. Could you help me, give me some sense on this incremental utilization or the incremental sales from this plant? How much of it will be domestic car and how much will be used for exports? Or do we have a possibility of 100% domestic over here?
So no, we are going to cater to both export and domestic currently. My sense is that it will be 50-50 by the end of this financial year. But exports, as you know, the markets, some of them are sluggish. Some of the markets are going to be where we have not played. For example, in ASEAN market, there are some applications where we have not played before and we would like to play with this investment, those markets of ASEAN. So my feel and target is that we should be doing 50-50. But now, with export being so kind of dicey with trade wars, you don't know what is going to happen. All of a sudden, there is a 50%, then it's paused, then next day is something else. So for some time, that clarity as it comes in.
But overall, our target is going to be more domestic and this. And there are a lot of domestic applications which demand these bearings. So we are working pretty much hard to mitigate if there is an export risk, how to push more domestic, which would be good either ways.
So domestic, which applications are we talking about majorly for CRB and SRB?
So these go from the, say, lift to material handling to auxiliary equipment to railway applications like CRB, motor suspension unit. The motor itself has a bearing NU220. So SRB, CRBs are used in very varied applications. So material handling is a large piece of it. Sugar mills use it a lot. Paper mills use it all a lot. As I said, railways also use it a lot. So applications are coming here.
But we'll be able to supply to most of them. I mean, we are not targeting any specific segment, so to say.
We want to do anti-friction bearing solutions. Wherever there is a rolling element to be put in, we'll be standing there.
Understood, sir. Thank you so much, and all the very best.
Thank you very much. Thanks a lot.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Aabhas Verma from East Lane Capital. Please go ahead.
Yes. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yes, sir.
Yes, sir. Good evening, sir. Congratulations. I just have a question. So assuming your existing manufacturing facilities are currently operating at or near full capacity, so is there any headroom for incremental volume growth from these plants? Is there any scope for debottlenecking? Can you just guide on that?
So obviously, this is a question which every day manufacturing managers and plant managers look at the takt times and look at the bottlenecks and see how we can improve it. As I said, that we are working six-day three shifts, and we want to make sure that the maintenance is taken care of and not preventive. Now, we have all moved to predictive and all that. So coming back to the headroom, obviously, there are many ways to do that. One is obviously put more CapEx in, which for rail we are doing. But otherwise, there are other ways to utilize, say, for example, rough grind to do at a vendor place. So we are looking at all those possibilities, and we have a good plan in order to boost the productivity with the same setup by outsourcing some critical roughing elements. So we are looking at that.
And then also, if we feel that there is a need to invest quickly, we have grind lines available across the globe, and we can always buy them and install them quickly. So that is also there. But yes, the risk mitigation to ride the wave, we look at that. And there is no direct question to the headroom. These are all different solutions at different cost factors to manufacturing, which we are looking at.
Yes, got it.
Which we discuss every week, actually. So this is our yahi hamara khana pina to produce more with less.
Yes, absolutely. I appreciate that. But I just wanted to have a sense that incrementally, could we see any sort of nominal growth rate coming from the facility?
On the current setup, I can, when I am working six-day three shifts, if I have to whip it and produce another 10%-15% more out of those assets, it is possible. Beyond that, we'll have to invest.
Sorry, could you please repeat the numbers again?
I said that if we have to whip these assets currently running at six-day three shifts, if we have to whip them further, we can, with further solutions, produce another 15 odd %. Beyond that, we'll have.
15 odd %. Understood. Understood. 15 odd %, you can do more on basis.
More. Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you so much and all the best.
Thank you. We can take one more question.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Rajakumar Vaidyanathan from RK Investments. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Can you hear me?
Yes, Rajakumar, we can hear you.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, my question is on the financial. So if I just see the notes that you have given in the financial statement, there is a note in the file where it states INR 272 million is on account of bilateral APA that was signed. So I mean, that kind of gave an upside this quarter because your revenue and bottom line would have gone up by the same number, right? And to see the real profitability, we need to just kind of back that out. So if we back that out, then when I compare your current Q4 with the previous Q4, the numbers are actually coming down. So your PBT margin drops from 21% to 19%.
That is absolutely right, Rajakumar.
Yeah. And just one more minute, sir. So I also read through your parent company's con call transcript where they are talking about the EBITDA bridge. They mentioned $10 million have been incurred towards ramp-related costs for Mexico and India entities. So I just want to know whether this 2% drop is representing the ramp-related cost, or is there anything more to it?
No. I'm not aware of this. The statement you are making, I'm not aware of this.
No, it is there in the public domain, sir. You can go through the transcript, so it is there. So basically, my question is why the margin has dropped from 21% to 19%. So the question is the reason for the drop, and are there any ramp-related costs included in it?
No, it is not there, so that is what I say, that it is not there. That is not very much there, and our depreciation also not started for the new plant, so it is not there. Mexico versus peers, I'm not aware. I obviously don't look after that territory, so I'm not aware what is there, and regarding this 19% with this, it is absolutely right, and you have to see what was the last quarter, even if you take that out, and that is a fact. How much was the last quarter without this? 14.6, so last was 14.6, so 14.6 to 19 point something plus this, so look at it in a positive manner, Rajakumarji.
Yeah, yeah. I understand, sir. But you have a substantial turnover. So you'll have the operating leverage, right? So it's not the right comparison.
That is right. That's right.
I'm sorry. I'm sorry to be blank here.
These are really. I always learn more from these question-answer sessions every time. So I'm indebted to these questions because they teach you a lot. So the next time, I look at my notes even more well in order to be prepared because you guys look at, for many companies, the depth of knowledge you bring to the table is immense. We are so much blinkered. We are like horses, only looking at one piece. So you guys are like an open ocean. So there is almost so much to learn. Thank you very much. Thanks a lot.
Sir, just one more question, sir, if you permit.
Yeah. Sure.
Yeah. And there is a tax-related reversal also in this quarter. So I think reversals are more relating to transactions or the general reversal? So, this is tax-related, is very much there. I think this is related to the M&A.
This is the old M&A reversal, which we had provided for.
Okay. Okay, sir. Thanks a lot, sir.
Okay. Thank you very much. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
Thank you very much. Sir, we have two more questions in the queue, so can we take them? The line for the management is disconnected. Please wait while we join them again.