Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Timken India Limited Q3 FY 2025 Post Results Conference Call hosted by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be no opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Annamalai Jayaraj from Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited . Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, sir. Welcome to Timken India Limited Q3 FY 2025 Post Results Conference Call. From Timken India Limited Management, we have with us today Mr. Sanjay Koul, Chairman and Managing Director, and Mr. Avishrant Keshava, CFO and Whole-time Director. I'll now hand over the call to the management for the opening remarks to be followed by question and answer session. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Mr. Annamalai. Thank you, everybody, for joining the call. And I will not take too much in my own opening remarks. We'll jump into the question and answers quickly. But just to give a little bit of a pointer, the December quarter of Q3 2024-2025, we had the best-ever December quarter ever in the history of Timken India Limited. So that was equal to INR 671 crore. We got a 9.7% YoY growth to that quarter. And this quarter was our best-ever quarter in terms of the third quarter. And so that was the highlight of it, driven by a moderate domestic demand and a little bit of intercompany uptick, which is the export part of it. Subsequently, if you take the previous quarter, we were down because of the seasonality of the nature of the business. PBT margins of 14.6% compared to 14.9% in the prior-year period.
Resilient margin performance in the quarter despite very unfavorable quarterly mix. So that was offset a little bit by cost leverage. Compared to the last quarter, margin went down 1.8% due to adverse mix, leveraging the cost, maintaining a debt-free balance sheet with strong cash reserves, which obviously are enabling us to continue with strategic investment to drive the future growth. Short story on the Bharuch Greenfield project. The building is complete. Utility areas are complete. DG sets, power backups, 66 kVA line, everything is running. Main building is currently, as we thought, in work in progress.
All the machines are inside the building, and we are waiting for the HVAC to get connected. Working in full swing on that. As soon as that gets connected, we'll start unboxing. It should be any day this week. So we have almost all of the assets are in place. Supply chains are in place. So hopefully, that should be now ready for production. So that is the short Q3 2024-2025 performance highlights. And now I would be open for questions and try to answer them.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with the question- and- answer session. Anyone wishing to ask a question may please press star and one on your touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We'll take the first question from the line of Abhishek Jain from AlfAccurate Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity, sir. My first question on the segment-wise contribution in the third quarter. If you can give the number?
Yes, absolutely. So the segment-wise, do you want it in percentage or in figures?
Yeah, if you can give in a figure, that will be great.
Okay. And figures we can certainly give. And our Rail in this Q3 2024-2025 was under INR 16 crore, Mobile others was INR 139 crore, Distribution was at INR 127 crore, Process Industries was INR 132, Export was at INR 152 point something, and there was a little bit of export incentive. But in terms of percentage also, total we did INR 671.4 crore. And in terms of percentage, Rail was 17 % of the pie, Mobile was 21% of the pie, Distribution was 19% of the pie, Process Industries cumulative 20% of the pie, a nd Exports was 23%, and 1% was export incentives. That was the total summation of the breakup, Jain .
So, sir, in this quarter, in the Rail segment, we have seen a quarter-on-quarter improvement. And now the limit has gone up to INR 160 crores. And in the fourth quarter of last year, it was very high. So it was around INR 274 crores. So, how can we see this growth will see a significant jump, and we can see some sort of the growth in the fourth quarter, or we'll see some impact because of the high base?
So, all I can say is this question. I could not hear it very clearly. This is about pertaining to the Rail third quarter and subsequent, what is the Rail situation like? Is that right?
Yes, sir. Basically, in the third quarter, we have seen a quarter-on-quarter improvement on the Rail segment numbers. And even YoY, there's a significant jump. But in fourth quarter, there was a very high base of around INR 274 crores. So how do you see the fourth quarter number, and what is the outlook for the FY 2026 in the Railway segment?
Okay. Okay, I got it now completely. Thank you very much. So Rail, as you rightly said, it was slightly better than the previous quarter. YTD, if you see the YTD 2023-2024 to current year YTD also, it is better. Last year, the last quarter, last fiscal quarter was certainly very good. And as you know better than me, that the last quarter, January, February, March, many times is very good because people want to complete their orders. It is end of their own fiscal. They have to achieve their own target. The order book for rail is okay now, depending on the customers how much they want to invest. And generally, as you know, in India, last quarter would be always in the mood of completion of everything, not only rail in general. So order book is okay.
We are running rail, all shifts currently, and it is in full steam on production side. Now, how much customers would like to invest? Their own order book is pretty decent. Our order book is pretty good. So depending on all that, how much they would like to invest because it's not only rail-based. They have to get the wheels. They have to get everything. If all comes together, I think it would be pretty good as well.
Okay, sir. Thank you, sir. And in Export numbers in last three quarters, we are stagnant around INR 152 crores kind of the revenue on every quarter. So, just wanted to understand how the Export outlook in a near to medium terms because we are getting a lot of the challenge on export market.
Yeah, if you see, our Export was 23% of the pie in our goods last third quarter, which was INR 152 crore. In the previous quarter, it was 20% of the pie at INR 124 crore. Again, the small uptick in the Export, as you know, that Europe is struggling. America, there has been the change in the leadership there, and they might be looking to get their whole economy back in shape. Overall, it is not going to go bad for sure, that I can tell you. It could be flattish, upish. Now, how upish it can go another two, three months, we'll get more clear. But certainly, it is a slight uptick, which I can see happening. In previous quarter to this quarter, our Export grew by INR 24-INR 25 crore quarter- on- quarter. We can see that it is not going the other way.
It is going the right way. Now, how much big it can go as the economic policies start getting unleashed here. As you know, there is this Mexico thing happening. If there is tariffs, harsh tariffs on Mexico, tough tariffs on China, only time will say. Initial news was INR 25, then they went into negotiation mode. China is only going to be targeted. But all this and hopefully, nothing on India could be a great chance for India, but everything will be clear in the next couple of months' time for sure. Market for export is not going down. It is flattish, upish. Now, how upish, only time will say.
Okay, sir. Thanks. That's all from my side.
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to the participants, anyone wishing to ask a question, may please press star and one. The next question is from the line of Mukesh Saraf from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Good evening, and thank you for the opportunity. My question is on the exports business itself. You did allude to change in leadership, change in government.
Can you speak a little away from the mic? Your mic is not working.
Is it better now?
Much better. Thank you.
Okay. So question on Exports. Obviously, we are setting up this new plant, INR 600 crore CapEx. But if you could kind of give a sense on how the parent is now looking at new investments outside of the U.S., setting up new plants such as this. Because obviously, tariffs is something that you can't really predict. But is there a change in thought process at the parent level with respect to sourcing from low-cost geographies?
So for sure, for sure, as you are aware, Mukesh, about the change of leadership at Timken. And we have a very seasoned leader on Board from ABB, where he was handling more than $10 billion worth of business. And in his time at leadership, I think he has done more than two dozen of M&As as well. His knowledge of business in Asia is very good. I had many chances to speak to him. We visited our new plant recently as well. So a lot of what we call the windshield time when we are in the car, discussing and all that. So for sure, from a seasoned business leader who comes with tons of experience, sourcing from best-cost countries is pretty much on top of his agenda.
Now we want to be at the same time I'm talking, the Timken Company wants to be sure that they are near their customers. They know what their customers want. At the end of the day, they have to be cognizant of the fact that we have to be best in class in terms of cost, quality, delivery. So that plays a big role, especially in the passenger car, heavy truck, mobile. It is worldwide every day. Cost improvement is the name of the game. He comes with a lot of great experience, a lot of great knowledge. And I think that the strategy to keep on sourcing from best-cost countries is only going to become better and better. Having said that, they are not averse to the fact that how to serve the local market locally as well.
And on top of that, this thought of doing a lot of work locally in order to grow locally, what if it needs investments or if it needs some other form of integration. So it is very much going to have more speed now. That is my two cents that the engine of local for local and local for local plus global, and then integration on the supply chain, which is what we do, would gather more momentum.
Got that. Got that. Secondly, obviously, you mentioned that the new plant in Bharuch is very close to starting operations. If you could give a sense that in the first year, say the coming year, FY 2026, what kind of revenues we could target to achieve from this facility? Obviously, given the fact that Exports was also one of the areas of targeting that we were targeting there.
Yeah. So more or less at a high level, the factory is almost ready. I'm planning to make another batch on Wednesday. We have to just see when we can really inaugurate the plant to get a good feel here. We should be able to start doing some kind of initial PPAPs by the end of March, hopefully. That is the target. Now, coming to what kind of revenues we get for next year, that is April to March of 2026, I think that export definitely in this area is certainly going to be important when the Indian market is also part of the deal. We make SRB, CRB first time now in India. Now, exactly how much more sales we can do, the intent is that we should at least fill up the plant in the first year to 50%-60% of the capacity.
That would be a great win if we can utilize 60% of the capacity in the first year, 70%-75% next year. And I heard third year we have full capacity utilized. That would be the target. Market is very much there. We make great bearings. So the problem is not with the market. Problem would be how fast we can deliver to the market. And you have to go to the Management of Change as soon as you change the plant. And all that takes time. The PPAPs take time and all that. So we started assembling a little bit early in the day so that we can overcome the hump a little bit. But yes, Mukesh, we want to at least utilize 50%-60% of the capacity of this new plant next year, next fiscal.
Great. Great. Great. That's great. Just lastly, sir, what's your outlook on the CV industry, commercial vehicle industry in India this coming year?
I think you need to tell me. Your take is better than my take. You please tell us who is ready accordingly.
It'd be good to hear your thoughts, sir.
My thoughts are that now, as you saw the budget, there is announcement of reduction of the spending. Though we did not spend what we should have as Government of India could not spend what we should have spent. I think that we stay put on the infrastructure side of it. If we stay put on the infrastructure side of it, the CV market and the construction market would remain very buoyant. If we get a good month in the tractor market, it's going to remain buoyant. The tipper market is going to remain buoyant. We also see now there is a lot of activity, though small, in the kind of defense arena. Now, whether our heavy truck is going to be having the traction which we want that to have on 18 kind of stuff, I don't think it is better.
It is going to be definitely better than the last year. But if it is going to boom, I cannot see that yet happening. But certainly, I think the rest of the things will make it slightly better than the previous year. New things are happening on the bus side of it. So I will not discuss that. But overall, I think with the construction equipment off-highway, tractor, and the heavy truck with the tippers taking a lead, etc., etc., we should be okay. But it won't be the commercial vehicle going to 500,000 units on its own this fiscal year. I mean to say 2025-2026.
Got that, sir. Got it. Thank you so much for this, sir. I'll get back at it to you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Viraj from SiMPL. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Am I audible?
Yes, very much.
So just a couple of questions. Firstly, from the railway part of the business, can you just give some perspective? How is the demand environment? Where are you seeing attraction? And also some color on the competitive landscape in each of the segments?
Yeah. So I think the overall, I would say that if Rail is going to be, it won't be a hockey stick, but it's going to be better compared to the previous CY. So Rail will be better. For us, we are metro passenger and freight. We have started supplying to the local market, which we are not supplying on the electrical. So that is going to be small. But for us, that is a pretty good outlook. The wind is doing very well in Indian side of it. That is the Indian wind market. Local gearboxes, the ZF, Flender, Siemens, Nanjing High are producing and exporting. And that is also kind of okay. And the Indian market, where you have the Adanis of the world installing now, that is catching pretty good traction. 3 MW , 5 MW , those windmills especially in the area of Kutch, etcetera.
In Gujarat, that is having a very beautiful traction for sure. The market of the gearboxes also, though it's changing its profile, they are going to bigger and bigger megawatt, that is also okay. This is on the food and beverage is a small thing for us, very small emerging that's going to be pretty good. Marine is small segment for many of us. It is going to be good. It is going to be a focus area. What is not going to be great as we sit today, and the talk is heavy truck. I don't think I can start saying that, hey, we need to start investing to get more capacity or something like that. So that is not yet happening. Construction and cement would be okay. Depending on monsoon, tractor would be okay.
But overall, I think with the GDP going at 6%, and we have demonstrated a company that we have always grown more than the GDP. So that should be okay. My personal feeling that the 2025, 2026 Exports would be better than 2024, 2025. Now, how much better? Another two, three months' next call, we can give you more meat on that. But it is going to be better. How much better? I think by next quarter, it will be very clear.
Okay. Second question is, sir, the CapEx which we announced and we are looking to commercialize and scale up from 2026. If you were to compare the portfolio of the parent and for us in industrial entity in India, what further gaps or what further opportunities there could be in terms of localization, either from import substitution or also from export?
Yeah. So I think that in India, the parent has many companies which have a lot of market in India, and those companies definitely have the supply chain potential out of India. To me, lubrication is one area. Coupling is another area. Coupling is, again, same like steel, forging, turning, heat treat, grinding, finishing, etc. So it is very similar to bearing in some if I analyze it. So the parent has the technology on the chains, on the couplings, on the lubrication system. I'm keeping the belt out of my discussion, but in general, these industrial applications have great market in India and greater supply chain potential out of India. So it is obviously always on the discussion. I can say that every day, every other day, we think about it. There are discussions globally on it. So that area is very much available there.
That is one part of it. It is what we call industrial motion. Now, coming to the bearings, we make tapered roller bearings up to 24 inches in India. So there is very much a possibility that the market is there, especially the wind market, which goes up to 36 inches up to 48 inches. That means larger bearings can be made in India very easily. And now you have the market and the critical mass. So that is on the bearing side. On SRB, CRB, our current investment is up to 400 millimeters on SRB, 300 on CRB. But the market has potential to buy localized bearings up to 1 meter. So easily up to 1, 1.2 on spherical, especially the cement market. And also some market of energy, the pulverizer also takes larger bearings. So that we still import and sell in India.
So they have a greater chance to be localized and also become part of a global supply chain to ship out of India. So those are the areas where we've been looking at the market, seeing how it is behaving. And now we see that the electrical, the wind, I'm sorry, the wind is getting bigger and bigger for those guys who are exporting the gearboxes. So those are the areas. Apart from that, there is another company which Timken has taken called GGB. This is a very specialized bearing company which does plain bearings. GGB already is in India. So they are not producing anything in India, but they are selling not a whole lot of sales, but I think 30, 40, 50 or so what they are doing. So they have the chance to produce in future. These are not only steel, these are FRP and other materials.
These are used in all kinds of applications in automotive, in construction equipment, in aircraft industry, and industrial applications. These are what we simply call self-lubricating plain bearings, pretty high-tech stuff. That already, they have a wing in India. We are looking at it. How do we take that? It is a low-hanging fruit. How do we take advantage? Customers are saying they are already established in India. How do we do that? A lot of brainstorming and discussions happening on that. If I have to say, largely, there are three buckets where integration in future will happen. Now, when it will happen, only time will say. Industrial motion, which is all these couplings, chains, and lubrication systems, plain bearings, and extension on the size ranges which are already producing in India.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rishi Vora from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. It's just a follow-up on CRB, SRB, where you talked about reaching a 50% utilization levels in the first year. So roughly, you are seeing if I assume a 2X asset as you are roughly guiding for INR 600 crores of top line from year one. So can you talk to us or help us understand with which customers we have already engaged? Is there an order book over there? Which end consumer segments you will be targeting? And the first year is only going to be domestic, or we are also going to export?
So first of all, let me clarify. INR 600 crore is the investment, so not the sale. So we are going to utilize, try to utilize the capacity to the tune of 50% first year, which will be a great achievement. In the bearing division, we take six to seven years to reach 85% of capacity utilization. So that is one. Second is that we are already importing and selling bearings in India of this range. So that is a localization target. But our major focus is actually new customers, both exports and domestic, more exports than domestic. So that is the idea of the whole drawing board is to put up this size range. The major is to export out of India. And obviously, not only export, then what I'm importing into India would get replaced and get pulled up.
And then new customers in India, new part numbers in India. Similarly, globally, what can be rationalized, not only rationalized, what can be taken as new customers. For example, Timken does not supply anything to the palm oil industry in Indonesia and Malaysia. It is a virgin market for us, has been dominated by our competitors. I'm not saying we will go after them, but just an example. That is a market. There is a huge pressure market where we don't supply much in India, but we got the best technology. And that is another area which is pretty much significant in India. So our target is going to be first-hand capacity utilization, whatever we can get for export, whatever I can convert from export to localization and any new customers on it. So coming back to order book, yes.
What I'm already selling in India, that I can convert to localization, and means that we are already starting working with our end customers, all of them. You name the customer, we are already there. Whether it's cement, whether it's steel aggregates, or it is material handling, so we are working with them. We are in touch with them. We are telling them our capability on this SRB, CRB.
Everybody is excited and similarly, globally, the salespeople have been announced about the Bharuch plant, and they should get worried and start working on that. As you know, we are on SAP, and many things need to be done so that the demand flows towards this plant, so all that work is happening, and I hope that we hit 50% capacity utilization by the end of the year. It won't be day one. So we will gradually step by step by step by step. And then 50- 60, 70, and then on to 80- 85.
Understood. And just in the previous, I think if I recall it correctly, the imports of this kind of bearings was around INR 50-INR 100 crore, right? Is that number correct, or?
No, no, no. Not more than that. We were doing that much.
Oh, sorry. You'll be doing that much more?
Yeah, yeah. Market is big.
Understood. Understood. Thank you.
Thank you, Rishi. Yes, any other question, please?
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sabyasachi Mukerji from Bajaj Finserv AMC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Am I audible?
Yes, very much. Sabyasachi, I'm thinking of dresses, not bearings. Go ahead, please.
Sir, a couple of questions. First, clarification on the capacity utilization level that you are trying to achieve, 50%-60%. Is it the exit rate for FY 2026, or is it the average utilization level for the entire year?
No, as we start doing the PPAPs by the end of, there are different lines. So it will be step by step. So I would be very happy if it is average. So it will be step by step, and it will be less than 50%-60% if you take the whole year average.
So basically, let's say by Q4 of FY 2026, next financial year, you are trying to achieve a capacity utilization of 50%-60%. Is that understanding correct?
That's right. That's exactly correct.
Okay, and secondly, on the railway side of things, this budget, we have seen that the allocation to railway budget has been flattish year- on- ear. Any concerns you foresee in this segment as far as demand is concerned?
I have been telling this for many, many years and many, many quarters that Rail will be always better than the previous year, but it would be step by step, step by step. So I think even if it is flattish, it's not a bad news at all, especially from the wagon passenger car side of it. So it is not bad news. It is always going to be step by step, step by step, because you need to have more tracks getting running. You need to phase out the old rolling stock. There is already high density. If you see from Delhi to Kanpur, every two minutes, one train passes, and then you have the fast train going on it, and then you have Malgadi going on it. So the average speed will be what is the speed of the Malgadi.
So all that put together, I don't think is the cause of concern. I think the order book is pretty okay in the wagon industry. It is pretty okay in the rail passenger segment. Metro is a small piece of it. That one is pretty good. And connected to Metro is also a tunnel boring machine. That is another good bearing consuming area. Not a huge, huge thing, but still nice. So to Sabyasachi, to your direct question, not a cause of concern. We'll be very happy if they double it. But still, I prefer it this way rather than going up and down and up and down. It's not great for the industry. Slow and steady rail is better for the industry, and it is going that way.
Got it. That's very clear. On [crosstalk]
If you see, there is not, even if they give more money to the budget, there is no wheel capacity in India. Now, you know that people are putting the wheel plants extra aside. That all will take time, so it will be like allocated unspent. You give money, but it does not get consumed. It's no fun, so eight lakh crore comes there, so thought you do something in the company, but I think it is good.
We need to consume this what has been allocated, and people are putting one of the bottlenecks is certainly from the backend side of it is the wheel, which is getting no funding exporting from China and other places, so that is getting corrected. People are putting a wheel plant. I think three companies are already onto the job, so that is good news. On the forged wheel side of it. And then on the track side of it, so that is also moving slowly. So yeah, not a cause of concern as long as they keep on maintaining and moving up.
Understood. That's very clear, sir. Lastly, on Exports environment, given the trade wars and tariffs at play, what has been your experience in the last one or two months in your interaction with different clients as well as your parent? How should one think of the exports piece of our business going ahead?
So this is obviously seasoned companies like Timken do not take an immediate action on anything. So our parents are watching the situation pretty well, and they are looking at it. And you can see the first reaction, 25%, then negotiation, all that. So that is what we'll get a better feel in another two, three months' time which way it is going to tariff for. But as you can see that Mr. Modi is in now en route to U.S. or must be already here. And the balancing act is already being done. I think India has sent signals like bringing down the duty on the Harleys, and they are sending positive signals because of the fact that if eventually there is going to be, say, 10-ish% on Mexico, 10% on China, which for the automotive world means a lot.
So it is good news for companies in India. And we need to leverage that as a country. I think we have to wait another two months. No need just to wait from our parents as well. And we are also watching carefully. Let us see what happens after Mr. Modi comes back. What does he deliver or not deliver on this very, very crucial visit? I think overall my gut feeling is as I am also involved with the American Chamber of Commerce, it is going to be positive for India. So I think that will be good news. And then this airshow is on here in Bangalore. And this defense industry is going to be significantly big industry in 10 years time. I think we can all see that the seeds are getting sown. Things are starting happening, though small, small, but they're all coming together slowly.
Understood. Sir, lastly, if you can also share the segment-wise nine month numbers, absolute value numbers for the nine months?
Okay. So you want the current year YTD?
Yes. Yes, sir.
Current year YTD, let me offer you 2% of the numbers. My CFO is saying that we give you the percentage. Here is the percentage. Rail is 21% of that, Mobile is 19%, Distribution is 19%, Process Industries give us 20%, th en intercompany is 20%, and 1% is total income. The YTD current year, we have done total is INR 2,208 crore.
Got it. Understood. Thank you. That's all from my side. Thank you, sir.
Okay. Thank you, Sabyasachi . Thanks a lot.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Harish Bihani from Kotak AMC. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Sir, can you please help share what sales number will the new capacity do at full capacity?
It is a difficult question, Bihani, but it is very tough to answer because the fact that I have no idea what is the product mix going to be. A bearing which is 100 mm. What's the bearing which is 400 mm? There is this big mix question. Give us another three months, then we can predict this better. Today, it would be shooting in the dark. We got different ranges. There are different price points in the market. And we got two different kinds of bearings. So we will have to wait a little bit for us to understand and digest the demand. And then we can be better qualified to answer this question.
But the range should be somewhere between INR 900-INR 1,200 crores. That should be fine, or too early to say?
So at this stage, if you take the CapEx and multiply it by 1.5 or 2, might not be the right way to look at it. I have to capitalize each line, PPAP, each line, MOC, each line, customer inspection, each line. All this takes time, and every customer will go through the move. These are big customers, international customers, so they want to check every piece of it despite the fact that Timken is a 125-year-old company, so you can do this mathematically three years down the line, but not immediately.
Understood. And follow-up on that is that the overall capitalization will happen through the year. So this 50% average utilization that you spoke about will not be at the full capacity, right?
No, the 50% average, 50% utilization, hopefully by the last quarter, 50%-60%, not average. As I said earlier as well.
Okay. So by full year, the entire capitalization should happen. And then hopefully by then, at least 50% on average, we should be able to reach by the end of the year.
Correct. That's right.
Understood, sir. Understood. Thanks so much. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shishir Saha from Saha Securities. Please go ahead. Sorry, [crosstalk].
My question is, while taking up the [crosstalk]
Sorry to interrupt, Mr. Saha. Members of the Management team, there's a slight disturbance from your line.
From our line?
Now, am I audible, madam?
No, it's from the line of the Management team, Mr. Saha.
Oh, we did nothing.
Am I audible now?
Yes, sir. Please proceed.
Am I audible now?
Yes, daughter, you're audible. She has problems with our line. But I didn't touch the phone at all.
Sir, my question is, while taking up the expansion work in your new bearing plant, I mean to say, you had indicated the CapEx you incur. Normally, the top line will be around three times of the CapEx. That is INR 1,800 crores. So, sir, now you have told that we will be achieving almost 60% of the capacity next year. So can you safely assume that 60% of INR 1,800 crores will be achieved next year?
I will try to explain one more time. We want to be at the capacity utilization of 50%-60% by the end of the next fiscal year. It will go through step-by-step process to reach that capacity utilization by the end of the next fiscal year.
So can I assume, sir, that next year, by the end of the next year, will be around 60% of INR 1,800 crores?
I'm not saying anything. I'm saying that our capacity utilization will start happening from April of 2025. By the March of 2026, our capacity utilization should be around 50%-60%. 60% would be great. 50% would be wonderful. Between 50%-60%. How much time it will take to bring the average obviously would be less than 50%. Now, how less, depending on how fast we can have the PPAPs, audits, MOCs done, and then the ramp process, whether we can make smaller bearings where the value is less, whether we are able to first launch the larger bearing where the value is more. You'll have to give us another three months to understand this a little bit better as we unleash this product line out of the new plant to the Indian market and export as well.
Okay. So we can assume that another two years down the line, we'll be achieving that, sir, at least.
Our end goal generally is a bearing company will take five, six, seven years to reach capacity utilization. Now that we are an established player, we have a supply chain which is already available. We know the customers. I would say that 50%-60% by the end of next year, 70-ish% one year down the line after that, and 85% by the end of three years would be a great achievement for us. And we are known to hit the targets.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much, sir. Actually, I am an investor. I have invested in your company since last 20 years. I have heavily invested in personal capacity in your company. Thank you very much, sir.
I must tell you, Saha, that you have invested very well. If you are an investor for the last 20 years, so then you have made good money out of Timken India already.
I have made good money, sir. Good money. 30 times, I have made good money.
You have made good money. This company is a debt-free company. It is highly technology-driven. It is working more and more. And you'll see a lot of good things happening in the next two, three years. So stay connected, please.
I was in Tata Steel. I got share at INR 10.
Oh, you were working with Tata Steel?
I was working with Tata Steel when I got Timken share, and that was at INR 10 face value.
INR 10, opened at INR 150.
I have made it almost 1,500 shares now. So I have quite.
Very nice. Thank you so much. And wish you all the best, sir. Thank you very much. And with that, I think do we have any last questions?
Yes, sure. So we take the last question. That is from the line of Shaukat Ali from Monarch PMS . Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity, sir. Just one question left to be answered. So what are some color from the process segment? How different industry has shared during the quarter? If you can give some color about different industry segments sharing during the quarter, sir.
I would say that the process industry for us, if you see, is comprising of all the stationary equipment in the project side. If I talk about processing steel making, cement making, they buy bearings in MRO. That is distribution for us. When I talk process, this is going into the OE fit. That means somebody is making a steel mill. Somebody is putting up a new cement plant. Somebody is making stacker reclaimer. And somebody is doing some machining tunnel boring machine and things like that. And obviously, wheel gearboxes is as well there. So if you see, going by quarter- over- quarter, we were INR 130 crores previous quarter and current year quarter INR 132. So that tells you the story. And we have not lost penetration. So the attraction is okay, but it is not nobody is making a lot of steel.
There is some expansion happening here and there. But all these news, if they are coming from Danieli, he has some from abroad. So obviously, somebody else is getting the sales somewhere else in Europe, etc. But this is going to be better in coming quarters for sure. As we see that there is a lot of traction out of East Africa, West Africa for getting more steel mills out of Indian smaller companies. So that is happening. Some of the other expansions which were done two or three years back, they are getting further as you must be connected to the steel industry. So that is happening. So it was nothing which was really wonderful, great. And we are really buoyant about it. But it was not bad. We are not complaining. And this is going to be better in this next fiscal for sure.
How the wind segment is faring of late, sir? What is your view in the near-term outlook about the wind sector?
[Foreign language]
Okay.
So that is exactly this wind segment. For example, China was down last year on wind. And then all of a sudden, January, they had a nice wind traction on it. Now, in India, I see a wonderful emerging trend. That is the Indian companies putting up wind farms which are 3 MW. India had some own wind. They were sub-megawatt crap thing. So now the Adani of the world and Suzlon of the world and similar companies are putting wind mills in India.
So that is going to be pretty good. And then we see Nanjing High is making gearboxes or assembling gearboxes in India. There is moving up. They are making bigger and bigger gearboxes. So wind is a dicey. It is a dicey market. It goes up. It comes down. It goes up. But I think for us at Timken, in India, wind market would be stable or better.
Good. Thank you. Thank you for.
Thank you very much. Thanks a lot, everybody. Thank you. Thank you, everybody. And if you have any good news about commercial vehicles, please give me a call. We want to learn more about what is happening in the CV world as you get connected to everybody. It will be good to get educated. Mukesh Bhai, if you get anything special inside, give me a call. We want to know what are the trends happening in commercial vehicles which we are not aware of. So thank you. Good day. Bye-bye.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Batlivala and Karani Securities India Private Limited, that concludes this conference call. We thank you for joining us. And now, disconnect your lines. Thank you.