Greetings, and thank you for patiently holding. We now have the line for the management reconnected. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. I think somewhere the connection got lost. My apologies. We don't know why. Dinesh, can you highlight where you lost me?
After like, first two lines, the connection dropped.
First two lines in? I don't know.
Consolidated figures you are seeing, no? After that line, right?
Okay. Overall, I was giving the breakup. So on the standalone front, domestic stands at INR 437 crores and export at INR 275 crores. The ratios remain the same with the previous year, previous period. Overall, sales looks at INR 742 crores versus INR 773 crores. Domestic is almost static, whereas exports have fallen by about INR 28 crores. EBITDA for this period stands at 19%, as against 21% for the previous period. EBITDA, operational EBITDA, stands at 17.5% versus 19.5% for the previous year.
The as-forged sales is 46%, and as machined is 54%. These numbers were 48% and 52% in the previous half year. The EBITDA per ton stands at INR 38,000, as against INR 40,000 of the pre-INR 40,500 of the previous half year. For this year, it stands at INR 38,300. Overall sales is 80% CV, 10% pass car, and 10% off-highway and engineering. The same ratio holds good across export and domestic if we consider auto as one segment.
The ratios are approximately 90% in both domestic and in export markets, maybe 91% in exports. The share of pass car in exports is a tad less at 6%, whereas the share of pass car in domestic is a tad higher at 13%. But overall, the auto market numbers stand at 90%-91%, and 10% is off-highway and engineering. Forged and machined stands at 51%, as against 58% in the previous half year. This half year, we have sold 38,000 tons, as against 52,000 tons produced, 52,000 tons in the previous half year. Sales stand at 37,000 tons, against 40,000 tons in the previous half year. So these are some brief fundamentals of the organization. As we, let me just close out by giving a brief outlook.
We expect this year to be around the previous year's numbers, give or take a few percentage points in terms of revenue. Hopefully, we are seeing the CV market in the U.S. rebound, and much of the stocks at customer end have been depleted, so they're starting to buy from us from November onwards. So that will definitely add to the entire portfolio. So Q2, H2 appears to be heading for a better number. All things being equal, we should do something around INR 750-INR 800 crores in H2 and take the number close to previous year level.
Going forward beyond that, we have an order book of around INR 300 crores revenue with us, and that is expected to realize around. We expect to realize about INR 200 crores in FY 2027. These are the basic, you know, information. If there's any questions, I'd be happy to take them on. Am I audible, Dinesh and operator? Can you please pass the.
Yes, sorry.
You can—you could request the participants for raising questions. Okay. In the absence of questions, let me continue a little bit more. Our EV subsidiary, Abhinava Rizel, is yet to open its account on sales, though we are very, very close to our customer. And we were, this customer was acquired in early May itself. However, due to the disruption in supply of magnets from China, we have not been able to take that forward, and we've had to work around by developing new motors for them. That has worked out quite well, and the customer has tremendous confidence in us and has placed orders on us for sample parts to be delivered by end of this month. Once these parts get extensively tested at the end customer at OE level, we would be moving forward with sales at their end.
Overall, this customer holds about INR 20 crores-INR 30 crores of potential and has committed that they would like to work very closely with us. So one good news is that Abhinava Rizel is slowly seeing end of the light and will start its manufacturing very shortly. In the meantime, its strength on designing motors ground up has come to the fore and is of tremendous use when we are looking at motors with light rare earth magnets or even ferrite or other types of motors which do not require magnets at all. So Abhinava Rizel is able to move forward very quickly on design, and that is one of the key strengths of the organization. All this has to translate into sales and growth for the organization. In the meantime, the other wholly-owned subsidiary DVS Industries will be merged into M M Forgings.
Those proceedings are ongoing at NCLT, and we expect the merger anytime now. So over to participants for any further questions. Dinesh, am I audible?
Yes, sir. We will start.
Yeah. Sure. I think the operator has to make an announcement, no?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
That's fine.
Told me.
Dinesh, any response?
I just told them, sir. Please wait. Yes, your line is in the talk mode. Please proceed.
Hello.
Yes, sir. Please proceed.
Hello. Am I audible?
Yes, sir. You're audible. Please proceed.
Yeah. Hello, sir. Yeah. Hello, sir. My name is Yash. So I just want to ask a question on the, you have installed the highest, 120,000-ton forging press, right? So, so I just want to check the what is the annual revenue that can be added, once it is completely installed. Yeah. Thank you, sir.
Can you introduce yourself a bit clearly?
Sir, my name is Yash. So my question is, so we have installed a heavy press.
you from any financial institution or?
No, sir. I'm an individual investor, sir. Yeah.
Okay. You're based out of?
Hyderabad, sir.
Okay. Yeah. See, we are installing the 16,500-ton press, the world's largest hot forging mechanical press. This is getting commissioned in by March. Maybe a little bit of by around April, we would expect it to be starting to produce parts. Overall turnover out of that would be in the region of around INR 300 crores.
Okay. And also, compared to the, there will be a jump up in the margins also, right, sir, with this addition, actually, since it's a very largest press, actually, right?
Correct. Correct.
Okay.
Revenue should start appearing from financial.
Oh, okay. Sure, sir. Definitely. I think company is facing some tough times, so hope we will overcome it soon, and thanks for your leadership, sir. Yeah. Thank you. Yeah.
Thank you, Yash. Operator, any further questions?
The next question is from Lakshminarayanan . You can go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. This is Lakshmin arayanan from Tunga Investments. Thank you. A few questions. First question is that in the revenue segment review slide, there is something called production, and you have actually mentioned HF and FS. Can you just elaborate what is HF and what is FS in that particular slide? The last part on the slide, I mean, revenue.
Yeah. I know. Correct. HF is our heavy Forgings division and FS is our regular forge shop.
Okay. What do you classify as Heavy Forgings?
Forged 6,000-ton press and beyond.
Got it. Good. The second is that, you know, as investors, which year we should actually look forward to for a breakout of M M Forgings performance? Is it 2027 or 2028? I mean, keeping the external environment separate, if you look at it from an internal capability and capacity and competency point of view, which year you think we will be very well positioned? Just want to understand from you.
FY 2027, FY2028, this year itself, we are reasonably, you know, our house is in reasonable order. Okay? But some of the assets that have been put in for growth will be coming in by end of this fiscal. So in Q1 or from Q1 onwards, they'll go into production. And so what we are seeing is an overall dampening of the overall market situation, particularly with regard to exports. And that has resulted in a duller performance. So all things being equal, FY 2027 should be a breakout year.
Okay. So, in the last conference call you alluded at, there has been a slowness or a, you know, deceleration of demand from the U.S., and you actually well-guided, and that's what is actually playing out. Now, how things have actually changed? Is it now that, you know, the lowest MF reached, or you still see prolonged uncertainty from, I mean, from the limited set of customers you are actually engaging with?
We are seeing this as a bottom. Our Q2 sales to America, if you see, even our H1 overall sales to the U.S. has been, sorry, the region-wise, if you see, has dropped from 16%- 8%. So almost a 10% drop in the U.S. market. We have not lost any market share. So that 8% on overall sales means we are looking at about INR 50 crores. If I had that 50 crores now, you know, we wouldn't be looking at our sales numbers. Our sales numbers would have been far, far better.
Yeah. So you think this is most like a postponed supply which you need to do and not that it has actually gone on?
No, no, no. I would say it's the other way around. It has been preponed supply. Customers have bought in advance, and they have stocked up at their end and are faced with demand reduction. Now, the Class 8 truck market is beginning to wake up, and we are seeing purchases starting from November onwards. Last three months have been particularly bad, and we see this picking up. By June of next year, it should be at reasonable clip.
Got it. When coming to working capital .
For example, even if we look at the U.S. market, just taking it on a bit further, in the overall last year was 16%. In Q1, we did 9%. Ignoring the decimals, okay? In Q2, we've done only 7% sales to America. So the overall, we, you know, Q2 has been probably the worst. Usually, America would stand at 16%-22%. Nowadays, 16% because domestic has increased. Typically, around 16% is what we have seen over years.
Their customers are restocking, and they are actually again, the buy orders are quickly.
Yeah. They've come back to buying more. Exactly. They've run out of their inventories, and they're coming back to buying more. In FY 2022, America saw 28% of sales. Then between 15%, 12%, 16%, 17%.
And any of the. Yes, sorry. Go ahead.
So, I see this, the Q2 of this year, as the worst. Tariff advance, I expect, would be resolved anytime. We're all expecting some solution anytime. As and when it comes, that will add to the process.
Good. And is there any place where we have lost some orders in terms of competition in our domestic or international in the last six months?
Nothing specific.
Okay. Now, coming to our working capital to sales, right? I think it was actually well maintained, and it actually went up higher. And it's an—so can you just help me understand, you know, how, as a company, you're looking at working capital? And is there a way in which you can actually, you know, lean it down?
Yeah. Our overall borrowings at the end of F 2025 is today at INR 1,062 crores. I'm talking gross debt. Net of cash at roughly INR 843 crores. Q1 end, it went up almost to INR 900 crores net debt. And at the end of Q2, it's back to around INR 850 crores. Okay. Term debt stands at INR 750 crores. And working capital at INR 330 crores. And after cash on hand, works out to INR 850 crores.
Okay. So, just want to understand what is—I mean, how, how are you thinking about it, slightly longer?
Yes, we are.
Mr. Lakshminarayanan I'm sorry to interrupt you. But can you please?
One second. Let me answer this question and then go on. Those are interesting questions. We'll answer this question, and then probably you can rejoin the queue if required.
Sure.
So we are expecting, Lakshmi, that this would come down by about INR 50 crores-INR 75 crores. We are compressing our inventories now, and we see scope for a reduction of at least INR 50 crores in our inventories.
Got it. Got it. Thank you so much, Mr. Vidyashankar . I'll be expecting to hear from you.
Thank you, Mr. Lakshmin arayanan.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Sumit Kumar, an investor. Please go ahead.
Hello?
Yeah. Hi, Sumit.
Hi. I want to ask about the Abhinava Rizel. You said that we are having an order of around INR 20 crores-INR 30 crores. So is it a quarterly order or a yearly one?
No. When I say INR 20 crores- INR 30 crores, it's an annual order.
Oh, annual order. And we have increased our share in Europe, vis-à-vis there is a drop in U.S. So we have grabbed some clients over there or just?
Yeah. We've added a couple of clients in Europe. But more than anything else, there has been a big drop in America.
Yes, yes. Okay. Yes. That was my question.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Srinath Saravanan from Spark Asia Impact Managers. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, just wanted to understand, is there any restructuring in employees, sir? Because I see there's an increase in employees' cost.
Nothing specific.
Okay. Sir, then just wanted to see whether you are trying to diversify from commercial vehicles because with the 16,500 ton press, whether we'll be targeting something off-highway or tractors segment, sir?
Can you repeat the question?
Sir, with the 16,500 ton press, which is coming next year, whether we'll be diversifying away from commercial vehicles and increasing our market share in off-highway and industrial segments or?
That is the overall plan, but I don't think that will happen next year. Next year, our dependence on CV will continue to be there.
Thanks.
Venturing into off-highway will require machining investments. At this point of time, we have not planned any.
That's it from me.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Anubhav Mukherjee from Prescient Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello. Am I audible?
Yes. Hi .
Sir, what is the CapEx plan for, like, second half of this financial year and maybe in the next one or two years?
This year we plan to invest. Next, first half, we've invested about INR 100 crores. Second half, we'll do INR 70 crores or less, and next year, it's likely to be around INR 100 crores-120 crores overall.
Okay. And sir, what is like this new capacity also getting commercialized? Like, what is like our overall utilization levels?
If we look at the forging space, we stand at about. We are headed for about 75,000 tons of capacity utilization. This year, and next year, we expect to push it to anywhere between INR 80,000-INR 90,000.
Okay. And, sir, what is the current situation, like, in the U.S., especially with the 50% tariffs? Like, you are saying that, now there'll be some pickups. So, will we be able to pass on this entire 50% tariff or we'll have to absorb some part of it? Can you, like, help us with the current, like, situation?
So far, we are not affected. The tariffs are borne by the customers. Going forward, I would say until March, probably they would absorb. Beyond March, they would definitely look at resourcing or negotiating. For sure. Nobody can bear 50% and then simply carry on business as usual.
Good. And sir, the alternative would be, again, like, maybe shifting to China, Mexico? Like, how will that, like, work? Hello?
Alternative would be largely stateside, meaning they would be buying from local shops. But then they do not have the capacities and the people and the industry there to take this kind of volume or this kind of priced parts. So probably it could shift to other parts of Asia, but those would face the same issues. China's duty, I don't think, is going to be any less than India's.
At any time. So unless, you know, geopolitical actions are different, then we can't predict those, but we can reasonably expect that China's duties would be approximately where India's is.
Good. And, sir, there was a significant, like, improvement in sales per ton in your presentation. It was mentioned from INR 1.8 lakhs per ton to INR 1.93 lakhs first half. What has driven this? Is it, like, the increased, machining, or better product mix? If you can help explain that?
More machined parts have gone, but overall, the sales of machined parts has not increased. It's only come down, but the extent of machined, the value add that we are doing in machined parts has gone up.
Okay. Okay, but sir, even with the improved realization, there was a dipping gross margin year on year. What has driven that? Like, is it the fall in U.S. exports ?
Okay. The fall is largely on account of employee costs and power and fuel. Employee costs rising as a result of lesser sales, and power and fuel also going up due to inflation rate.
Okay. That's all from my side. Thanks, sir. I will get back in a queue.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Nitin Gandhi from Inoquest Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you very much for taking my question. Just would like to know, like, do you see now the way scenario is happening for Class 8 that, 2027, 2028 year will be difficult to have 15% volume growth? And, do you also share some risk if you think that, 21%-22%, that plus 12% margin of, what we were maintaining, it's difficult to achieve by 2027, 2028? Thanks.
Thanks. See, I would expect our expectations at this point of time are that the Class 8 truck market will rebound from June of next year onwards. So that should result in improved sales, and overall, once sales pick up by another INR 50 crores-INR 100 crores, we should see a rebound in margins as well.
Can you share thoughts on, like, overall, that, INR 1,260 crores expansion plan which you planned? Where do we stand? And, when do we think that, 16,500? Of course, you shared some, timeline, but for next phase of 5,000, are we on track or will we do a little delayed? And how much?
Sure. See, we are at the fag end of our expansion cycle. We have another INR 70 crores to invest. We plan to invest another INR 70 crores this year. We are stretching our investments and don't want to increase our overall debt position from where it is. So within a few crores of that, of those levels. So consequently, we'll be spending about INR 70 crores in the second half. Thereafter, the spending would be at those rates only, about INR 50 crores-INR 70 crores a half year.
No, that will be the phase till the time you feel that this kind of current scenario advances. But the moment that Class 8, positivity and order starts getting built, how will you go ahead with your overall mission to reach that?
So next year, next year, we would still see we've done a lot of CapEx in the past. We have invested more than INR 1,000 crores in the last five years. So some of that has gone into production. A good portion of that is yet to get into production. We have to focus on getting that into production and improving our sales. That is a key factor, and we expect our sales to go by at least INR 300 crores in the next 15-18 months, 12-18 months, assuming that things don't bottom out further. Okay? So if there's a, you know, we keep adding water into the bucket, and there is also a leakage from the bucket at the bottom, a water that is already there.
Overall, the bucket seems to be running at the same level, but we seem to be working harder and putting mugs of water into the bucket. So currently, that's what is happening. We would expect this trend to, it's a mixed bag. I mean, everybody knows the volatility in the global economy these days. Nobody can hazard a guess on where we will be. But overall conditions, India is positive, and, U.S. is not. Europe is middling. South America is, slightly bustling. So given these conditions, and if things don't tank any further, I would say that we are in for, we should start reversing our growth from FY 2027 onwards. That is, reversing our decline from next year onwards and, see some growth. How much will depend upon how much water doesn't go out of the bucket.
And in best case scenario, this INR 1,000 crores what we have invested can take to what is the maximum potential of our existing capacity to annual revenue? Is it beyond INR 4,000 crores or it's a little less than that?
No, no, no, the current capacities can't take us to INR 4,000 crores for sure. The general ratio of turnover to investment is around one, at best 1.2. So let's say our gross block now stands at INR 2,000 crores. You can even do the math. So INR 2,500 crores looks to be an outlier number.
So we can look at around INR 500 crores-INR 700 crores if everything goes, you know, aligned, and we don't, that is, we get orders for where we have already developed and parts don't slip out. We should look at something in the region of INR 500 crores-INR 700 crores added to our current turnover.
So in that scenario, you can take a base of around INR 1,500 crores. So on INR 1,500 crores, we should see potential to cross INR 2,000 crores, which is what we've been saying all the while. So we should now. We are focusing on making it happen. There have been a few delays in customer projects, which is the reason why we are not being able to ramp up on sales. Plus, there has been an erosion due to economic turmoil in other markets. So all this put together has resulted in us being static at where we are.
And now coming to the EV part, like, congratulations for working out the alternative to overcome the magnet constraint. Can you share some more thoughts on that?
Yeah. Abhinava Rizel and I will probably be one of the few companies in India that can design a motor ground up without seeking any technological help from anybody. My customers are saying that our motors are at least 2% more efficient.
Great to hear that, sir.
The issue is now to get customers to participate in the story. What happens is that, fortunately or unfortunately, particularly the big customers, they don't want to. They love a startup, but they don't want to take any risk by going ahead with a startup. That has proved to be a real bugbear for Abhinava Rizel. And also the fact that we have developed motors only, whereas OEs today require a three-in-one or a six-in-one solution. Means they're looking at a motor controller and gearbox, bare minimum three-in-one. Then you add in DC-DC converter, charger, VCU. So all those things, they're looking at a six-in-one or a five-in-one, seven-in-one kind of a solution. Those are where Abhinava Rizel lacks product offerings itself.
Now, on the motor side, the opportunity of rare earths, though it has delayed our commercialization by a few months, has also presented us opportunities, and I'm sure will continue to present us opportunities in bringing products to customers. We have to make it happen. The third, second point is that we are also diversifying into making controllers. And we'll have a few samples ready. We'll get into commercializing our controller, foray. That will increase our product portfolio and step by step grow the business.
What about the third part, which is most?
Sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Nitin, but can you please rejoin the queue for further questions?
I suggest continuing to talk that. I'll stop there.
I'll answer this one. You can go back to the queue. I'll answer this one. Sir, the gear is basically the transmission, the mechanical side. That can be outsourced or MMF itself can support Abhinava Rizel and make it. There are enough players making transmissions these days.
Yeah, ma'am. Please, I'll come back in a few. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Rajakumar Vaidyanathan from RK Invest. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, my question is, I see that of late, many of the retail, CV finance players are reporting NPAs. So just want to know what is the outlook on the CV industry, what you are hearing from the, in the marketplace.
We expect the CV market to be static in terms of numbers, maybe a 2% growth this way or that way. What is happening in the CV market is larger multi-axle vehicles are being phased out, are not preferred, not phased out. Customers don't prefer multi-axle vehicles. They're moving towards tractor-trailer model, particularly for long-haulage. Tractor-trailers do not require multiple front axles. As a result, overall front axle beam and front axle requirement has come down, which means that the market that M M Forgings addresses along with its competitors has shrunk due to customer preference and their product offerings. While the tonnage of the vehicle has gone up, TUV has gone up, or TIV has gone up, but the number of front axle requirements has come down across CV customers.
That has resulted in stagnation as far as domestic sales is concerned.
Okay. Okay. Actually, the question is on the trade tariff, so there are talks about the tariffs getting removed in the near term. So if that happens, will your program on exports start immediately, or there will be a period that we need to wait before the program really starts?
Yeah. What has happened is that this tariff, uncertainty or tantrum period has coincided with higher inventory at our customer end.
That inventory has drawn down mostly. Customers are starting to increase their offtake. They'll do so regardless of tariff conditions because they have to run their business. But then it can't go on indefinitely. If the tariffs are at this level, they'll be unsustainably high. Customers will look at alternatives, but alternatives can come only from sources where tariff differential is, not from a manufacturing point of view because already from a manufacturing point of view, we have secured that business because we have been globally competitive.
Competition can come only out of tariff delta and not on account of pricing delta.
Okay. Thank you. So just two more housekeeping questions. So the first one is on the material cost. I find that the cost has really reduced this quarter compared to the June quarter of the previous year, September quarter. Is this cost, I think, of almost 42% of sales, sustainable or is there any one-off savings in this quarter?
Nothing specific in the material cost.
Okay. So in that case, I think you guided that your Q2 of this year will be more or less similar to previous year. So can we expect a better margin, compared to last year?
See, given this volatile requirement situation, I do not know what to comment as far as my, as far as margins are concerned. All that I can say is that cost-wise, we are holding down our costs reasonably well. Though there is some scope for cost reduction that is happening within the organization. So overall, given this extremely volatile environment, I would say from these levels, we would expect margin to be only improving. Certainly, yes. If we hold that we have hit bottom in terms of sales, then margin should be improving. But whether this is the bottom or not, you know, it's not a question that I can answer right now. But we expect, from what I've said earlier, we expect Q2 to have been our worst quarter.
Okay. Got it, sir, so lastly, the other expense line item is.
Sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Rajakumar, but can you please rejoin the queue for further questions?
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. A request to all the participants, please restrict yourself to two questions only so that the management is able to answer everybody's questions. Should you have follow-up questions, please rejoin the queue. The next question comes from the line of Bhavesh Jain from DV Investment Advisors. Please go ahead.
Hello. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yeah. So you very well explained about the U.S. market, which you expect to rebound by June 2027. So can you throw some light on the domestic CV market and how do you see it forward?
June 2026, Bhavesh.
June 2026, yeah, yeah. So, no, on the domestic market, so how do you see it going forward?
Domestic market looks to be holding its own. As I've said, TIV has gone up, but, unit sales has dropped because multi-axle vehicles are being replaced by tractor-trailers.
Okay. Okay. Understood. That's all.
The addressable market for MMF's products in that zone has come down.
Okay, sir. Understood. And can you give a breakup of the CapEx? Like, next year, we are expecting around INR 100 crores of CapEx again. So any breakup on that?
We would expect next year to add another 15,000-20,000 tons to our capacity by commissioning a 16,500 ton press, of course, and also add one more forging line, possibly a 4,000 ton press. So these two s hould enter into production so that will push up our capacity close to around 140,000 tons. We should be doing anywhere between 80,000- 90,000 tons next year. Though achieving 1 lakh tons is only dependent upon the market, so waiting for market conditions to improve.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Saurabh from QRC. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Thank you for taking my question. Most of them have been answered, but just on the, I guess you touched up on the CapEx bit, but, could you just help us understand the large press that you will commission next year, and it's going to become a significant part of our incremental revenue and even revenue as a whole of INR 1,500 crores. We will potentially add INR 300 crores. What are the particular products or industries that this will cater to, and how does this impact margins overall?
As I said earlier, the 16,500 ton press should add about INR 300 crores of turnover. That will, we have to market that press outside. So that, turnover will start to come in from FY 2027 onwards. But in the meantime, we will be using the press to produce bigger parts and address markets that are already acquired. What was the next part of your question? Sorry.
And that, does this press? So, does this INR 300 crores, once it is stabilized and marketed, come at a significantly better margin than the existing products?
Yes. Definitely, yes.
So, I guess we will get a better idea once it's commissioned, so I won't ask you what the number is going to be.
Yeah. Definitely. I can hazard guesses on those numbers based on what I'm hearing and seeing from my marketing team. But as you said, it's too early. We should definitely see that margins there will go up. See, what happens is that a good portion of manufacturing cost goes to capital allocation for each part. Let me answer it from a financial point of view, okay? You will appreciate that. Now, because the CapEx here is significant, naturally, price recovery will have to be made on a per-part basis. Therefore, the price per part and price per kilo I would expect will be 10%-20% higher.
Got it. Okay. And, and finally on this other point, and the other point that you made about the customers preferring tractor-trailers versus multi-axle, which is in a way impacting our market. So what can we do to make sure that this doesn't sort of become a problem for us longer term? Are we getting into newer products? If yes, what? And how are we sort of addressing this? Maybe over the medium term, if you could help us understand. Thank you very much.
Sorry, could you please repeat your question?
Mr. Saurabh? Mr. Saurabh's line has been disconnected. The next question comes from the line of Munzal Shah from NSFO. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, sir. I have a few questions. One is with regards to your Europe, okay? Like, could we assume that in absolute terms, revenues from Europe, should grow for next couple of years?
Yes. We would expect revenues to grow from Europe to grow.
Okay. The second is, basically with regards to your debt, okay? I mean, so you told that there is a debt reduction, but actually from the figures, I couldn't figure out. I think that the net debt has increased from March 2025 levels, and would you resort to, you know, any dilution, to reduce debt, or you are comfortable with current level of debt?
Let me clarify the position on the net debt level. Hold on one second. I have the numbers in front of me. Sure. FY 2025, we stood at INR 843 crores of net debt. Currently, at Q2, we stand at INR 850 crores of net debt. That's only a INR 7 crores deficit or INR 7 crores increase.
Short-term loans and advances, you are accounting as you know cash and cash equivalent, right?
Yeah, yeah. Working capital, we are adding into this debt, this overall debt. If you look at term loan alone, I can give you numbers also.
No, no, no. I'm not talking term loan. I'm talking total debt, sir, okay? It's total debt.
Okay. Total debt stands at INR 844 crores as of now. Sorry, INR 844 crores as a previous quarter, previous period. Now it stands at INR 851 crores. That's only a marginal increase.
Okay. So basically, no, no. If I go line-wise, on the asset side, there is the short-term loans and advances that also you are considering as cash and cash equivalent. Otherwise, the net debt is coming to INR 950 odd crores.
I have checked it out with my team on where that got consolidated. But we are looking at no, no. I don't think we're taking those as we are netting off only cash surpluses that are available in mutual funds or deposits.
Correct. Cash and cash equivalent.
It's only cash and cash equivalents. Trade advances and all, we are not netting off.
Okay, sir. I couldn't find anything, but that, that's a small amount. Sir, would you see this debt coming down significantly from financial year 2027 onwards? Like, whatever I have heard from your, you know, remarks, okay? And assuming that, you know, your 45% is roughly raw material cost, 35% is fixed and semi-fixed cost, and 20% is EBITDA margin average, plus minus 1% or 2%, okay?
Very nice. Obviously.
Obviously, you know, you are assuming, like, you know, the worst is behind. So next year, even if, and this is just my calculations, I'm not going to hold anybody, but roughly, we would do INR 2,000 crores revenue next year itself, okay? And obviously, there's an operating leverage in play, okay? So, you know, we should be upwards of 20% EBITDA margins, and, you know, you're rationalizing your CapEx assumptions. So we should start seeing significant reduction in debt?
See, yeah. Very good question. The first half, I would agree with you, and market conditions holding, yes, and the new businesses playing out, certainly, yes. That is the business plan. Now, with regard to debt, we will, I would say there will not be any significant reduction in debt in the next two years. What we will do, let me explain. For sure, we don't want to borrow anymore. We have seen peak debt, and God willing, I would like to hold it there. Unless there's existential threat, I would like to hold debt at these levels.
So, sir, then what will you do to reduce your free cash flow next year?
No, let me elaborate. So if there is, as we generate free cash for the next, first of all, we need to make repayments. Of course, the cash would exceed the repayment level, but I would also expect that some amount of nominal CapEx will take place anywhere in the region of between INR 770 crores-INR 150 crores. Now, we are tightening our CapEx to the core. We are ensuring from now on that we invest only in assets that are going to be productive. And of course, it's the way we've been doing, but we are looking at it with a microscope and seeing, okay, this can be cut. So we are chipping and chopping very, very furiously. Now we continue with the same disciplined mindset, and some amount of postponed CapEx will be there over the next two years.
But it won't be much, maximum say, about INR 25 crores this way, that way. A few buildings here and there that are required for layout or from a material handling perspective, so on. So that may be getting added. But overall, what we would see is we would not reduce or pay off the debt in the next two years, but we would store that money either in our cash and cash equivalents or reduce our working capital. That is the first thing that we'll do so that we strengthen the company's position in the next, you know, over the next few years. And time comes, we have that money for any kind of investment. It could even be inorganic.
Okay. Sir, last two questions from my side.
One more question was asked by you or by your predecessor in the questioning higher sequence, so we are or we could look at. I'm not saying we will. Please don't hold me to it, but considering that we are looking at peak debt and we are at peak debt itself means that we are not comfortable with any more debt, right? Maybe we need to rethink and see if we could look at an equity infusion, but I am not saying and don't hold me to it because we are talking. Yes, that is an outlier at this point of time.
So, at least you are considering equity dilution.
It's an outlier at this point of time.
It is fair to assume from your comments that, you know, INR 850 crores will be net debt.
I'm sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Munzal.
Yeah, just let him complete this question.
This is just a related question, ma'am, so I just have to complete it.
Yeah, but yeah, let him complete this question because it will be of interest to everybody. Something that is very important for the organization and for those who are following it, who are analyzing it. Yeah, please.
Sir, you mentioned that your net debt is INR 850 crores, and that is the peak debt, okay? So from here on, and I'm not looking at next 6 months or 12 months, okay? So from a 3- 5 year perspective also, as in when your capacity is like 140,000 tons next year, and hopefully, you know, from end of 2027, you would think of further huge CapEx actually, okay? Since your asset turnover max is 1.2, okay? So the future capacity additions also, you would be only having a peak debt of INR 850 crores? That is what one should assume?
Let me, a very good question, very thought-out question. I've been mulling over this very, very frequently in my mind. We are looking at this as peak debt for this level of operation. Let me be very, very candid with you, okay? I'm not saying this peak debt is written in stone or, you know, it's nailed to the wall as an absolute number. Should business conditions change positively and there is EBITDA to support the growth, definitely we will see. We could look at, and there are opportunities, okay? Next point, there are opportunities to invest. So we could see debt going higher. But as things stand, certainly for this scale of operation, at least until INR 2,000 crores, I would like to nail down debt to these levels. That, that is very clear.
Sure, sir. But I'm very convinced that.
Yeah, see, so, and that's why I said we will, exactly, that is why I said the previous question, no, when you said, "What will you do with the cash?" I'll keep the cash aside. And the next jump comes, be ready to invest there. The combination of internal accruals, say, kept retained internal accruals, retained earnings, and if required, additional debt. But that will be at that stage. Suddenly, you are only asking about that stage. So I am, to answer your question bluntly and to the point, I am not looking at INR 850 crores as an absolute peak debt number.
If we are going to exceed INR 850 crores, we will have, we will definitely do it only under changed circumstances. That also I would like to add. I hope this answers your question. Putting these two into, adding these two into perspective, if there is growth, or when there is growth and when there is opportunity, we would, we are not averse to increasing debt at that point of time.
But definitely, we'll think three times because, right now we are hitting peak debt. I don't want to hit peak debt again ever. And let's say INR 2,500 crores. I don't want to say, "Oh, no, no, no, my debt now is INR 1,200 crores, and this is kind of peak debt at this level." No, year after, we have to, look at also, muted debt levels than where we are right now for long-term stability of the organization. These are the guiding principles by which we will add or retain debt. I hope I've answered your question.
It helps, sir. Thanks a lot, sir. Thank you very much.
Yeah. One other point I'd like to add to all analysts who have been nice enough to join is that most of our new debt is in rupee terms. So we are in the process of converting those into foreign currency loans and cutting our interest costs. This may be of interest to you. It doesn't affect EBITDA, but it definitely adds to retained cash. So our interest outflow for this half year has been about INR 39 crores, as against INR 30 crores of the previous half year. So far, what we have done would save us an outflow of at least INR 12 crores per annum. So we should be able to bring our interest outflow this year to within INR 70 crores. And we are considering further actions on this front.
I would expect our interest to be pegged within INR 60 crores, maybe if we get our act together, maybe even INR 50 crores. Somewhere between INR 50 crores and INR 60 crores, we'll target run at rate of interest. So that INR 80 crores minus INR 60 crores, or INR 50 crores is also going to be retained cash. Since this interest expense doesn't, it falls in between interest and EBITDA on which, you know, most of us are focused upon in this meeting, and it doesn't reflect, you know, directly, you know, people don't ask about PAT. So we, I thought I would take up this, convey this, this initiative to all of you.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as the last question for today's call due to time constraint. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
So thank you all for your incisive participation as always in the Q2 results, in our results, and particularly this one. Let me summarize a little bit from a macro point of view. Hopefully, Q2 will be our lowest, and the new product development and the sales to North American market should kick in from H2 onwards, and we should see some traction in sales. Probably things go well. We should be looking at sales this year equaling previous year's numbers, maybe a couple of percentage points less. That has to be worked out depending upon how strong the rebound is in the U.S. offtake. Over the next, we are definitely looking at peak debt. We are not looking at adding any more debt to M M Forgings' books.
And, as a consequence, macroeconomic conditions remaining the same, we would look at strengthening the balance sheet with internal accruals as we go on and use that strength for opportunities, both organic and inorganic, as we go into the future. So our first goal is to improve our sales, which has been flagging over the last few. I would say even years, probably at least six to eight quarters we could have done better. We should have done better, but combination of customer offtake, customer project delay, and change in market has probably led to, has led to this. We are reversing it. And we are also addressing wherever, you know, we have lost some, ceded some market share, we are going back to customers and getting it back. So this is the overall situation at M M Forgings. And the other initiative is to look at reduced interest costs.
Perhaps as an outlier, maybe a capital infusion, but that is, as it is in our thought process, much of an outlier only.
Thank you. On behalf of Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
Thank you.