Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to MM Forgings Ltd, Q1 FY26 earnings conference call, hosted by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. And now I hand the conference over to Mr. Annamalai Jayaraj from Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, sir. Apologies for the short delay. Welcome to MM Forgings Ltd Q1 FY26 Post-Results Conference Call. From the management side, we have with us today Mr. Vidyashankar Krishnan, Chairman and Managing Director. Mr. K. Venkatakrishnan, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now hand over the call to Mr. K. Venkatakrishnan for the opening remarks, so we will follow the question-and-answer session. Over to you, sir.
Absolutely, everybody. Apologies for the slight delay in start-up. I was just transiting through a black hole area, so this Q1 of this fiscal, MM Forgings has achieved a total income of INR 358 crores, as against INR 375 crores of the previous fiscal, a drop of about 4%, sorry, 6%, and we have achieved an EBITDA of INR 72 crores, as against INR 78 crores of the previous fiscal.
Depreciation has gone up from INR 19 crores to INR 22.5 crores, and finance cost from INR 14.5 crores to INR 18.3 crores, and profit after tax, with a slightly lower tax provision, stood at INR 22 crores, as against INR 32 crores in the previous fiscal. Overall, we have a PASCAR revenue of around 13%, commercial vehicle at almost 80%, and the balance 7% is agri off-highway and others. Geographically, about 60% is domestic and 40% is exports.
Out of this 40% exports, around 13% is North America, and the balance is between Europe and South America. These are the brief financials of the quarter. We have spent about 55 crores in CapEx for this year, and we plan to trim down the CapEx to between 150-200 crores at best. Our term loans have slightly gone up by around 30 crores for this year, for this quarter, with this quarter. We expect to end up this year with no significant increase in borrowings as compared to the previous year. So net term loans will be in the region of around 50 crores. We will hold that number through the year. That is the plan as of now.
With regard to the further Q3 , or the next Q3 , as we know, the times are extremely volatile with the tariff terms from the USA in terms of many operational parameters. So at this point of time, I'm not able to give any guidance on what will be our sales for the year. However, I'm happy to discuss possibilities and outcomes. These are the few points that I would like to state, and I would throw the floor open for questions and clarifications. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.
Yeah. Before that, just a couple of points. EBITDA for this quarter stands at 18% after taking away other income. Including other income, EBITDA is at 20%. And this is against 20% of the previous quarter, including, one second, yeah, 19.4% of the previous quarter without other income and 20.9% including other income. Going forward, we see the next two years as a major consolidation phase in terms of spending and in terms of cost control and pushing up sales.
Thank you. We will begin with the question-and-answer session. The first question comes from the line of Mark Swartzenburg from Anand Rathi Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. Sir, firstly, can you share both points? What was the Q1 production number and sales terms number? What was the machining mix? And any tariff observation impact for this quarter, if any? Hello? Can you hear me, sir?
Yeah. Can you hear me?
Yeah. I got it. 17,250 tons of production, 17,780 tons of sales for this quarter. And the. 1,332 for the previous quarter and production-wise, and almost 20,000 tons of sales. Overall, sales per ton from around 3.20 lakhs per ton has come down to 1.92 lakhs per ton.
Right, sir. And sir, any tariff impact, sir, this quarter? Which tariff impact observed during the quarter, sir?
No. We have not taken from 206, it has come down to 192.
Okay.
But I'll say it. One second. 206, INR 2,006,000 per ton, sales per ton has gone down to INR 1,092,000 per ton. Lastly, it's a product mix change. Now, we have not had any impact of tariff directly. However, customers are on wait and watch more on how this whole thing will develop. We have not directly borne any reduction due to tariff. If that's your question, right?
Got it. Got it, sir. And sir, just want to understand for the exports US business, now with the different kind of scenarios on the duty rate, how it changes our relationship with the customer? I mean, we would be a dedicated supplier for a particular model or the platform there. And I assume that it would not be so easy to change that if they see a better rate because we seem to have some disadvantages of now. Just want to understand if something or scenario plays out of a higher duty of India versus the other countries, how it could impact our growth, our sales, or the margins, sir?
As you rightly said, for the first few months or maybe even a couple of years, we can resist it to some extent. But at some point of time, it will start to hurt and hurt really bad.
Understood. Understood, sir.
Also, seeing the statement of Baba Kalyani has been in the open for quite some time. So these levels of duties are not sustainable as a standalone. If everybody else is getting the same level of duty, fine. But even then, post this level of duty, let's say all countries are at similar levels. But then we have the possibility of making these parts domestically in America itself. We means the customers have the possibility of buying these parts locally itself.
That would also impact. But nothing is linear in this world. One set of changes, we get another set of changes. If we see imports going down in America, I'm sure inflation and costs in America will skyrocket. In fact, just before this meeting, we were reviewing the interest rates scenario. Most people hold the view that interest rates in America will come down.
But somehow, I think that over a period of time, interest rates will go off the charts in America because inflation will go off the charts. So it's not a very linear thing. I am no economist. You guys are far better than this than me. But all that I can say is it's not going to be linear. There will be multiple boomerang effects, and it could all spiral into one thing negative, or it could all even out somewhat.
Got it, sir. Got it, sir.
We have been through this phase. At least I have never been through this phase. And most people who are analyzing the global economy have not looked at things in this manner. So within a few weeks or months, I'm sure newer scenarios, many scenarios will emerge.
Right, sir. And sir, coming to last question, sir, on the domestic side, we've seen a decline. And this quarter, there was in production numbers, there was growth, some growth there. And there was also ACP buying happening, sir. Just want to understand what led to a decline, is it a tonnage adverse mix that has led to a decline? And also just any outlook there on the domestic side, sir?
Sorry, I'm unable to hear you.
Domestic market has been a mixed bag with several customers posting good numbers and some customers hovering around previous year sales. So due to the AC cabin norms coming up in India before 10th of June, we've had a mixed bag. And overall, we seem to have declined a little bit in the domestic market. I would say if the market held up for this year, we would expect to hold our levels across the year for the domestic market.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Prith from InCred AMC. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. My first question will be on the order book. If you can let us know the current order book and breakup between the segments and what is the expected execution period, and also how much of the order book extends to last six months or one year.
Ladies and gentlemen, the line for the management is disconnected. Please hold while we reconnect them. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for being on hold. The management line has been reconnected. Thank you. And over to you, sir.
Yeah. I'm back. We can continue on. Some connection issue.
Yes, Prith, sir, you can repeat your question.
Okay. Then my question is on the order book. If you can mention your current order book along with the breakup between the segment and what is the ideal execution period for the order book and how much of the order book but tends last six months or one year?
Sorry, sir. Your voice is breaking. We are unable to hear you, Mr. Prith
I got the question. Thank you. Operator, I got the question. Generally, our order books over the next few months look to be, at least until October, roughly in the region of around INR 100-110 crores a month. And as we said, how this pans out after October will be a moot point. One thing is that this six months, there is a superimposition of a lot of inventory in the heavy truck market. And that is one reason why sales are expected to be down in the exports in the next quarter. But we also expect over time, the inventory should dry off. And from December, at least November, December onwards, there could be a positive impact with regard to the U.S. market. Europe is, as always, has been reasonably strong or chugging along at a median rate.
Yes, sir. On this same follow-up question on the order book, last time when we met, you told that all the new capacity which we have added, like we have done around INR 1,000 crores, INR 500-600 crores of capacity in the last two to three years. And we had planned for INR 300 crores of capacity this year as well. You told that all the capacity are backed by the order book. So I wanted to ask, what is the order book in total for the next three years down the line?
See, I can, to some extent, say on the incremental order book. Okay, but today, what happens is that incremental is one stream, and the baseline is another stream, and on the baseline, I'm not able to hazard any guess at all, and also on the incremental, a few projects at customer end have been delayed, but those are all our projects only. There's no issue with that, so those projects we are getting back once the customer starts his sales, we are there. For example, one project has gotten delayed, a significant project for PV domestic has gotten delayed by more than a year.
That will bounce back from this October, November onwards, at least start to ramp up, so likewise, we are seeing a baseline correction in terms of the Trump tariffs and also overall impact of that across the board, including on the domestic market. So how that will behave is a big question mark. Overall, I would say hold these numbers and macroeconomic situation and the previous year's conditions hold, we could look at some improvement in sales over the next 6 to 12 months. The next 6 to 9 months look to be previous year level, plus minus a small number.
Okay, sir. My next question would be on line of margin. For this quarter, we have reported margin of around 18%, which has been 200 basis points decline. Any particular reason or one-off in the margin? And also, we have guided for around 100-200 basis points improvement in the margin for the full year. So are we still maintaining that guidance, or we look forward to have the margins of current product?
Tough call to make. This will be largely based on volumes and product mix. I would say hold at these levels with a 200 basis point bias, upward bias.
Okay, sir. And next question on the line of tariff impact. Now, the U.S. government has imposed 25% or so tariff. So will we be able to pass on entire 25% tariff to customer, or we will have to absorb some of the tariffs?
Fortunately, for MM Forgings, all contracts are CIF America. There is nothing that is DDU, DDP, and all that where we have to pay the duty. It's the customer's account. So to that extent, technically, we are saved. It doesn't mean that we have to pay the duty and then go to the customer for a reimbursement. The customer has to pay the duty.
Now comes the question whether the customer wants to pay the duty and for how long. So we'll probably carry on until he finds some other source locally, which is cheaper. Sources there will also come under pressure. We are not the only forge shop that is going to be in this mode. Every other exporter, not just the big ones, but also the small ones, everybody will be in the same soup. And that kind of capacity doesn't exist in any country. That kind of slack.
So it's going to be a mixed bag. We have to watch and wait and watch and see this out. It's not all gloom, but over a period of time, definitely, it's not a good situation because that will prompt many other companies to invest in America and start operations there. So over a period of time, business and margins could come under pressure if these levels of tariffs stick.
I have got it. Next question is on the line of product mix. You told that the margin has impacted due to product mix. If you could give the pecking order of the margins, which segment has the highest margin and which segment has the lowest margin, and also differential of margins between export and domestic?
We don't give these numbers out publicly. But generally, we can take it that machined products exports have maximum. Then will come machined domestic, then forgings exports, and then domestic market plain forgings. Last year, somebody asked a question. I think I was not able to answer that. Machined was 59% of turnover. Whereas this quarter, we are at 51% of turnover. So there is a slight decline in machined sales.
Okay. My last question will be on the revenue upfront. When we will be seeing all the capacities which we have added, revenue flows from those capacities, when are we planning to get? And also, in last conference which we met, you mentioned that there will be 800 crores delta arrival coming in two or three years in the business. Are we still looking at these numbers, or because of headwinds going on in this, we are cutting our numbers?
Very good question. I would say at this point of time, those numbers still hold. Naturally, because of the impact of the changes going on, the timelines could be different. Maybe we can say three years from now instead of three years from the beginning of the previous year or from the end of the previous year. So we could be three to five. We could be a year or two delayed. But definitely, the order book is the incoming projects that we have done are all almost nearing completion, and customers will bounce back.
No doubt on that.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Gautam Rajesh from Leo Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good afternoon. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question was, since we have done a lot of capital work in progress as of like the 31st of March, by when can we expect this to commission, and how much incremental CAPEX is needed on this?
Yeah. We have done about 50-55 crores of CapEx in this quarter. And overall, for the year, I would expect that we had projected 300, but I would say that we would be scaling back due to lack of cash generation. We don't want to increase our borrowings.
Yeah. So that would be around INR 120 crores. And when do we expect this to commission?
Sorry, which to commission? The additional capacity.
Yeah, yeah.
The 16,000-ton press.
Pardon, sir?
Which would be commissioned? I didn't get your question.
The incremental CapEx we are doing now, by when would we see this commissioning?
That would all get commissioned during the course of the year and go into production from next year onwards.
Okay, and once the capacity ramps up, what would be our product mix, like company-wide, let's say CV versus PV as well as domestic and exports?
CV would slightly decline to around 75%.
Okay.
From 80 to 75. And past that, the slack from 13%, it would go up to about 18%.
Okay, sir. And what about domestic and exports, sir?
Domestic and exports, give or take the 60% mark plus or minus 5%.
Okay. And my final question was, for our industrial and railway business, what sort of ramp-up timelines are we looking at?
What is the first part of your question? Domestic and railway?
Industrial and railway business, what sort of ramp-up timelines are we looking at, sir?
Our railway system is pretty small, almost you can say nonexistent. So nothing much on the railway side.
What about on the industrial side, sir?
Industrial is slowly picking up, but again, at this point of time, very minuscule numbers to report. Hardly moves anything.
Yes. Oh, thank you, sir. That will be my next question.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Aditi Loharuka from CV Equity Research Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Also, how do you think will exports to U.S. be affected amidst the current tariff environment?
As I said, over the next six to 12 months, customers, if the tariffs stick and we don't take a part of that, customers will take a hit and pull along, not cheerfully, but grudgingly. Over a period of time, this will definitely impact our business to the American market.
Okay. And what is your machining?
10-18 months time to react and get maybe even a bit more, maybe 36 months, up to 36 months to get sources locally. But then if all forge shops are not going to supply forgings into America, the amount you can't create an Indian forging industry in America. There's no labor available. And the USA, with its very, very strong immigration policies or anti-immigration policies now, there is bound to be no incoming cheap labor to funnel all these activities, to, what shall I say, channelize all these activities.
So there is going to be the slack in the American labor market to take all this. It's not linear. The point I'm trying to make is it's not linear. There is going to be a wide set of repercussions that just because there's duty at customers and we can't absorb everything, yes, customers will scream, no doubt.
They won't be happy with it. But at the same time, they will also pass on prices because the amount of, let's say, India does about 2.5-3 million tons of forgings a year, and 20% of that is exported. We're talking 1 million metric tons a year getting added to the American production mix just on account of India alone. That's not going to be overnight. That's at least 12-36 months away, 18-36 months away. So it's a mixed bag, but definitely not ordering all that great. It's a new world order, and we have to really see how everything settles down.
Okay, sir.
The only point I'm trying to make here, limited point, is that it's not going to be linear.
Okay.
Yeah, you're asking.
Yeah. Sir, what is your machining and forging capacity as of date?
I would say both ways, we are about 60% used.
What is the total capacity?
On the forging side, we stand at about 120,000 tons.
Okay.
Machining is a mixed bag. I'll give you the number. One sec. Hold on. We are doing about 3.5-3.75 lakh machine parts a month on a capacity of around 5.5.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Lakshmi Narayanan from Tunga Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. You can hear me, right?
Yeah, Lakshmi. How are you?
I'm disturbed. I'm good, sir. How are you? Yeah. So a few questions. First is that now that export markets are facing a lot of headwinds, does it increase the competitive intensity in domestic markets? Is there a possibility of some companies trying to undercut and therefore trying to be a little desperate, therefore our margins may go down, or we have to stay away from picking some others?
Absolutely, Lakshmi. As I said earlier, this is not going to be a linear set of repercussions, so domestic market will see intense scrutiny, and America is not the only export market around. There are other export markets also, Europe, and Europe could increasingly see outsourcing. Europe will also see stronger economy for other reasons, and we can also look eastward, so it's a mixed bag. Right now, we have to be very agile and very alert, but point taken, domestic market could and will see increased competition in the months to come.
Okay. The second question is that now that we are actually merging DBS into, does it create any tax advantage because there have been some unabsorbed losses at the consolidated level? Can you just throw some light upon if there is some carry-forward losses we can actually set off this year? If it could be, what is the amount?
The final print is there internally, but at this point of time, we'd like to wait for the merger to finally happen. Yes, there could be a significant reduction in tax outflow.
Okay.
I would like to qualify at this point and not go around with the numbers.
Okay, and in the last couple of months, what kind of operational efficiencies you have got, either in terms of power or people or material, anything you'd like to touch upon?
We are working on a wide range of cost reduction efforts ranging from raw material to power, manpower, everything, and buying strategies, tool materials, the works. At this point of time, I'm not able to give you a number, but I can say that all these will be margin-attractive for the company.
Thank you, and I'll come back with you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ganesh Ram from Unified Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question. Are you able to hear me clearly?
Very clear.
Okay. Perfect, sir. So my questions are a bit broader. The first thing that I want to understand in the export market, right, what is the segment-wise sales distribution, sir, in Europe and US individually, and what part of the cycle is the volumes in? What is the demand outlook that you're seeing? And what I'm also trying to understand in context of these tariffs now, I'm in the camp that believes that these tariffs are not sustainable and they have to reverse at some point.
So there could potentially be an upside of these reverses, right? So what I'm trying to understand is, if not from India, who else is supplying to your customers, which geographies are they located in, and what is the cost arbitrage that US enjoys by producing in these geographies, and how are we placed versus them?
Broad set of really broad set of questions. I'll take the last one first. So if I miss anything, please do repeat the questions, okay?
Yes, sir.
Most customers, they are single source, particularly in the U.S. market. The products that we sell are all single source, and these have all stood the test of time, and fairly, you can say we've been largely competitive on these products, so that competitive advantage continues. What were your previous questions?
So if they were to look for alternate suppliers, let's say they try to make these products locally, what would be the increase in cost for them? Or if they would try to source it from some other geography, I don't know, maybe China, Mexico, somewhere, is there an alternative supply chain they can go to where the cost would be more competitive versus us? What would be that difference?
I would say we would still be competitive across all geographies on these products. And in Mexico, Mexico would probably be a reasonable threat. But even there, I would say cost hazard against that costs are 20%-30% higher than from India.
Okay. Okay.
Between China and Mexico. But then if Chinese are also handling 20% duty, then that advantage is taken away.
Okay. So in a scenario where these tariffs don't sustain, right, or China has a higher tariff than us, essentially those volumes we would actually end up becoming more competitive than both these countries, and that would create opportunity in the case that this reverses.
Yeah. At least with regard to China, I don't know if Mexico is going to receive a higher tariff than India.
Okay. Okay.
I think not. I think not. But my thinking is virtually you can put it into the trash can.
Sir, if you have a lesser idea, then we will have no idea. So anyways, the other thing that I wanted to ask is, in the, I mean, it's just part of the same question. In the U.S. and European markets, when you look at the segmental sales distribution, how much would be commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles, etc., and what is the outlook from the OEMs on these markets? How has it been so far, and what is the expectation going forward?
CV in America will be 90%.
Okay.
Okay. Overall sales is 80%.
Okay.
That is CV as a percentage of overall sales is 80%. CV as a percentage of American sales is about 90%. And balance is non-off-highway.
Off-Highway. And what is the outlook on CVs in America at the moment, sir? What are the trends that you're seeing, and how is the demand situation with these tariffs and in general?
CV market is more abundant in America with freight, see, truck freight in America, 38%, 40% of the truck freight is from ports to distribution centers. So that is under severe question mark. So truckers are not adding any capacity so easily. Their additional numbers are coming down. Means the order book of American truck manufacturers generally, let us say, is about 150,000, 180,000 days or 120,000 plus. That's come down to about 90,000 numbers. The order book of U.S. CV makers is coming down.
Okay.
Consequently, they will also be more cautious when they order on Tier 1s and then us.
Got it. And is there a case for this?
Ganesh Ram, sir, may we request that you return to the question queue for?
Dear operator, this is all part of the same question. We're just having it as a part, and it's just to first.
We can interject a couple of questions from him and then move on.
Okay.
Please. Yeah.
Yeah. So I just want to.
So, you have multiple choices and multiple questions, and then I'll say you would.
Yes, so on the commercial vehicles, I was just trying to say, so irrespective of the tariff situation, it's sort of in a down cycle right now, and what would need to happen for this to recover?
American purchasing and movement from ports to local has to improve.
Okay, sir. Okay. And maybe the last question from my side is on the domestic side, sir. I mean, our capacity utilization is around 50%-60% right now, and that has fairly reached a peak, right? So what led to the situation where we've expanded capacity so frequently, I mean, to this level when the demand environment is fairly muted? And what can we do to grow faster than industry volumes? Are you contemplating expanding segments, getting into industrial a bit more seriously, or railways? What are the options you have, sir?
My option is to expand, first of all, catch hold of the sales where we have invested on the machining lines, where customers have delayed their projects. Those projects are not out of the window, but their start has been delayed. So that's one positive side. So those things will result in incremental revenue. Second is to look at the existing installed base of equipment and use that far more proactively.
Got it. Got it. So in the next one or two years, would you say we are broadly at the bottom of what the company's performance would be? And with the ramp-up in new orders and with higher machine components, that you will be able to offset the decline in volumes?
Lord Willing, yes.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Can I get your name, please?
My name is Ganesh Ram, sir, from Unified.
Okay.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Shagun Beria from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yeah. So my first question is on the consolidation phase. We will be in the phase for the next few years. So what steps have you planned in terms of sales, cost, and CAPEX? Also, I would like to know about, so basically, the revenues have sort of declined, but other expenses and power and fuel costs have increased on a quarter-on-quarter basis. So what is the reason for that?
Power costs have increased on the back of the Tamil Nadu government increasing the unit rates. They have decided to go ahead and increase power costs by 5% every year. That is the reason why power costs have gone up. And also, on the back of around 7%-10% of less sales, power costs seem to have gone higher on a lower base. These are the two reasons for a higher power and fuel cost. What is the first part of your question, please? Other expenses, etc., remain largely static. In the past few years of growth, we have seen CSR mandated CSR spending to go up. So all these together have resulted in fairly constant higher expenses, other expenses.
Got it, sir. And the first question was about the capacity of consolidation.
Yes.
And the CAPEX?
I am not able to get you. I lost audio.
Your voice is breaking.
Hello?
Yeah. Unable to hear you, ma'am. You're not audible.
Hello?
Hello?
Yeah.
Yeah. I'm on.
Still, your voice is breaking, ma'am. Ma'am, you can rejoin the queue for the question. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Rajakumar Vaidyanathan from RK Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, just two questions. The first one is I joined the queue a little late. So I don't know if somebody asked it earlier. So the question is, if you could give some color on the subsidiary, I think the one which is working on the new powertrain. So any color, any update on that?
Yeah. We have developed a wide set of parts. First of all, there have been no such questions so far. So we've developed a wide range of parts. And amongst those that have gained market traction is a set of parts for the three-wheeler market. And we expect orders to come in. We've gotten the orders. Parts are being homologated as we speak. And this will all happen, get into production from Q4 of this fiscal. The recent move by China not to give magnets to India, heavy rare earth magnets to India, has delayed the onset of bulk. But notwithstanding that, several customers have gone in for homologation. And that's a big first for the subsidiary company.
Okay. That's good to know, sir. And sir, any path to breakeven? When do you think the sub will breakeven?
I would like to say first, let us start sales.
Okay. Got it, sir, and sir, the next question.
I'm being a bit evasive or not direct, but I should have clarity for me to give you numbers.
Okay. Got it, sir. And, sir, my next question is, if you take a pessimistic view that the tariff holds and there is a significant drop in demand, so what are the alternate markets we have? Do we have, first of all, alternate markets, though maybe giving us a lower margin, or we don't have any alternate markets to absorb the capacity?
Definitely, there are alternative markets. We discussed this a bit earlier. America is not the only market in this thing. We see opportunities in Europe, and we also see opportunities in Japan and the Far East.
Okay, but they will all come with a reduced margin?
Probably yes. But then if that is the rule of the game, that's the rule of the game.
Okay. No, the reason behind the question is, so in the worst-case scenario, also we will not be in a loss situation. There will be still a positive bottom line, but a reduced bottom line. Is that a scenario that we can project? The worst-case scenario.
Reasonably.
Okay. Got it. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Lakshmi Narayanan from Tunga Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. A few questions. One is that I want to understand what is the broad contribution of crankshafts for us? This is in particular with respect to Coforma that got integrated. And given the fact that the farm equipment sector is actually doing well across all the domestic numbers we have received, I just want to understand your views on what's the revenue contribution, how is that sector looking for us?
That is doing pretty well. The farm sector, particularly with regard to CAFOMA, is doing quite strong.
Got it. Got it. And as of when you say strong, what has been the growth with respect to the last year? Any color you would like to give?
Sorry, Lakshmi, could you please repeat it?
No. See, you had mentioned in earlier calls that crankshaft gives a higher margin and that we are supplying crankshafts, I think, predominantly in the farm equipment, if I'm not wrong. Maybe also in commercial vehicles. That's what we want to do. So I just want to understand that particular business, how it has actually ramped up, either qualitatively or quantitatively. It would be helpful to hear from you.
It has ramped up quite well. From around 1,500 cranks a month for the CV sector, we are now doing close to 7,000 cranks a month, so that's been good, and we want to push it up to about 10,000 cranks a month.
Sorry. Sorry.
I mean CV once again. When I mean CV, I mean M&S CV. We're already doing about 10,000 plus cranks a month for the LCV and ILCV market.
Okay, and on the Agri market, how is it?
Agri, there's a lot of scope. Agri, there's a huge amount of scope. About 8,000.
Good. So in the overall scheme of things, why?
The total is about 16,000-17,000 cranks for agri.
Okay.
The overall Indian market is about 80-100 thousand agri tractors a month.
Okay. And we are doing around 17,000?
Yeah.
Got it. And in this overall scheme of things, which are the things that are looking very positive for you for the next one to three years?
The investments that we have made to add machining capacity across the board: axial arms, beam and crankshafts, some conrods coming in.
Got it. Got it. The last question which you are setting up, how has it been? Have you started having some customer queries and by when it is coming and what's the kind of ramp-up you expect on that front?
Press is expected to be commissioned in Q1 of next calendar. That is Q4 of this year. Q4 to Q1. Or rather, I would say between January, let's say around March, April.
Okay. FY 2026. Okay.
2026.
What kind of interest you are seeing from the customers, domestic or international?
Pretty reasonable, and we could also see some parts move out from our 8,000 into that machine first, which are being produced with a little bit of pushing the limits of the 8,000-ton press. Those will go into the 16,000-ton press first and ease out some production bottlenecks.
Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir, for this comprehensive reply. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Munjal Shah from NSFO. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. Thanks for this opportunity. Sir, with regards to Europe, you mentioned in the earlier remark that you are seeing a reasonable growth over there, actually. And I think so even in the foreseeable future, you are seeing a reasonable demand from Europe, actually. So one question is, why do you see this demand from Europe? Okay. And second is, wouldn't their business also get impacted because of U.S. tariffs?
Most of Europe's sales to America is passenger car, and they seem to have agreed upon the tariff rates: 15%, so you can say the number of Mercedes-Benz from Europe is going to cost 15% more in America, broadly, assuming that they are entirely imported as CKD, but then we serve largely the European truck and off-highway markets, so that is kind of immune from the American. Those are not products that go into the American market.
Sure. But why do you feel that this market will keep on growing, actually, the truck and the Off-Highway market?
We are adding market share. We are increasing market share there.
And sir, in terms of you mentioned the overall Indian capacity for forging, somewhere in the range of three million. And you mentioned 30% is exported, roughly. So could you give a breakup of this?
Yeah. Roughly, the Indian market is about 2.5-3 million metric tons per annum for forgings. And about 30% is broadly exported. So about 1 million tons is exported.
Now, within this export, I just wanted to know what is the breakup of these exports? How much would be to U.S. and how much would be to Europe and the third big market or rest of the world, actually?
I'm afraid I would not have those numbers.
Sure, sir. Thanks a lot, sir. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in the interest of time, the last question comes from the line of Prith from InCred AMC. Please go ahead.
Sir, follow-up question on my earlier question. First will be you have mentioned that there may be a delay of like one year for getting that revenue, but you have not lost any customer or not lost any order book. I just wanted to know that all the capacities which we have added, when will we get the start of the revenue? When revenue flow will start from which quarter for those capacities?
Q4 of this fiscal to Q1 of next.
Okay. Q4. And last question on the line of debt. Like currently, we have a debt of around which we have a huge debt, and you are telling that for this year, you will not be adding any debt for the current quarter. You have added 30 crores of debt. Can we assume that it is the peak debt of MM Forgings, or if we get an opportunity, we can increase debt as well from current levels?
I would say at this point of time, peak date.
Okay.
Unless the opportunities are significant and extremely lucrative.
Okay. At the start of the call, you have mentioned about the production and sales numbers. If you can just repeat those numbers, I'm wondering.
Yeah. Sure. We've achieved a sales of INR 358 crores in Q1 of this fiscal, as against INR 375 of the previous year. EBITDA stands at INR 72 crores, as against INR 78 of the previous fiscal. PAT is at INR 22 crores, as against INR 32 crores. Riding on the back of slightly three crores of higher depreciation and about four crores of higher interest costs.
No, sir. I was talking about production and sales volume number.
Production and sales volume. Sure. This quarter, we've done 17,780 tons of sales, as against almost 20,000 of sales in the previous. You can say put number 18,000 this quarter, as against 20,000 in the previous quarter. Production is up from 17,300 to 18,000 tons. So production is up by 1,000 tons. Sales is down by about 2,000 tons.
Okay, sir. Thank you. Thank you for taking my question.
Thank you.
Thank you. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you all for coming to this call. Apologies for a slightly delayed start due to some connectivity issues. The outlook for MM Forgings stands at a very interesting position today. Amidst the fast-changing global environment due to tariffs from America, but we are very confident that over the period of time, the resilience of the organization and the strength and contribution of its employees, with divine grace, will ensure that we are able to overcome this very clearly and launch ourselves back into a trajectory of growth in sales and profitability.
Currently, there has been an increase in costs to the tune of around 2%. EBITDA has gotten shaven off. We hope to bounce back through the next few months and reclaim that on EBITDA and at least the cost side. Okay? If there is scale or not, that depends upon the market. We ride out the wave strongly over the next 12-18 months and launch ourselves to become a stronger company with the new products that we have developed in the last few years and associated with many customer projects across the globe. Thank you once again for this call and your time. We hope we meet in more stable circumstances in the months to come. Thank you. Jai Hind.
Thank you. On behalf of Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line. Thank you.