Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the M M Forgings Limited Q3 FY 2026 post-results earnings conference call, hosted by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Dinesh Kumar from B&K Securities. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, ma'am. Welcome to MM Forgings Limited 3Q FY 2026 post-results conference call. From the management side, we have with us today Mr. Vidyashankar Krishnan, Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. Balaji Gopal, Treasury and Finance and Accounts. I will now hand over the call to Mr. Vidyashankar Krishnan for the opening remarks, to be followed by question and answer session. Over to you, sir.
Hi. Morning, everybody. Thank you all for being here. I would like to now give a set of opening remarks for the results of Q3 FY 2026. Our company delivered a reasonably good quarter, considering the volatile global environment. Sales grew by 11.3% on year-over-year basis, with a sequential improvement in Q3 of about 7%. Growth was primarily driven by improvement in volumes of about 3% in Q3 compared to Q3 FY 2025, along with positive change in average sales realization. Export markets, after being weak in almost the first 8 months of the year, saw a sequential improvement, with contribution from USA rising a bit, a sign of things to come. The U.S. market seems to have given a positive outlook, and customers are coming back to us after running down the inventory of our parts.
Europe registered a healthy improvement in its mix this year, which was a result of market share improvement and new program starts there. The decline in gross margins reflects changes in both product mix and geographical mix. Also, power costs and labor costs seem to have gone up a little bit. We are sure that we will claw back these in the months to come. Senior management have been making all-around efforts to mitigate the impact of rising costs amid a tough and volatile trade environment. These efforts have reasonably helped arrest the decline in margins. Looking ahead, recent government announcements on the tariff front, along with the recovery in Class 8 truck orders in the U.S, augurs very well for us.
Coupled with the pickup in domestic auto sector, led by CV market, this should provide a reasonable boost to volumes in the next 12-18 months. We remain confident of delivering industry-leading volume growth and clawing back some of the margins lost in this year through a richer and improved product mix, cost-cutting initiatives, supported by a steep reduction in interest outflow. For the past several years, we have focused on strategically adding capacity while improving our product and market mix. Market conditions and delay in new programs didn't help too. We continue to invest in the current year and expect to close the year with a planned CapEx of around INR 175 crores, of which INR 137 crores has already been invested. We continue to maintain a cap on net debt levels now in spite of the heavy CapEx.
Next year, too, we expect CapEx to be in the range of around INR 150-INR 170 crores. Every activity is being reviewed with a sharp focus on cost reduction, automation, productivity enhancement, and strengthening the company and its balance sheet, and most important of all, relentless focus on customer and delivery to customers, which is now supported by a very strong market, both domestic and in exports. I look at the next few years with optimism. Significant positive cash flows generated by the business are expected to substantially reduce leverage and enhance shareholder value. And generally, just a remark on the side, I've used the standalone results for the above comments. So these are my initial remarks, and if there are questions now, I'd be happy to take them.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is on the line of Raghav Maheshwari from Kamakhya Wealth Management. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. So, sir, my first question will be around the demand recovery from the U.S. on the truck segment. So, as per some research reports, we are seeing that the demand has now returned back, and it has shown quite a, quite an uptick in, I think, the month of December. So are we- is it safe to assume that we are going to see that in our numbers in Q 4?
Little bit partially in Q4 and fully from Q1 FY 2027 onwards.
Understood, sir. And then my next question-
One set of parts have gone into production. Another set of parts go into production from February, so the full impact will come from March onwards. So effectively, I would say Q1 FY 2027.
Understood, sir. And sir, my next question is around the production mix, sir. For years, our core investment thesis has been the shift from, you know, forged to machined components to drive the margins up. And however, you know, yeah, in our presentation, the year-to-date FY 2026 data shows that the machined mix collapsed to around 47%, which was approximately—which was more in FY 2025, while the lower margin forged mix has been showing a good spike. So why is this a sharp reversal in product mix?
Mm, I think machining mix continues to be at that 45-odd percent. Let me check my numbers. Balaji Gopal, do you have any receipt? Shabari?
Uh.
Yeah. Hey, the machine-- our forged and machined continues to be... One second. I got it.
Uh, yeah.
Our forged and machined continues to be-
Our forging is 47%, and forging is 53%, and machining is 53, machining is 53% up to Q3 FY 2026. And with the corresponding FY 2025, we did 42% in forging and machining at 58%. So machining has come down by 5% and turned around to forging at 47.
From extent, Raghav, this is also-
47. From 58, it has become 53 in machining.
Thank you, Balaji.
Yeah.
This, Raghav, this mix is down largely because of some reduction in machining of export products. So I would expect it to bounce back in the coming months.
Understood, sir. That helps. And, sir, now, the next question is on the, finance cost, sir. So our finance costs, given our peak debt levels, have jumped to almost approximately 30% year-on-year in Q3. So, it's kind of, you know, wiping out the benefit of, the 10% revenue growth that we have seen. And, since we are also capitalizing the, new tonne, which is, you know, coming, so the interest meter is also kind of, you know, fully running. So, sir, what would be the... Like, when the press comes live in March, if we are guided by the management, what will be the break-even utilization of that, press to cover its own, you know, interest and depreciation costs?
Yeah. Let me first answer the overall question. We have embarked on a judicious study of our interest costs and sought it fit to make some corrections. We have also been helped by the fall in interest rates in India for both term as well as working capital debt. Backed by this, we've also shifted our term loans with synthetic swaps from rupee to euro. We've done only a, it's a IRS, the principal portion being left open. Sorry, it's a... Yeah, it's an interest rate swap, with the principal portion being left open in euro itself.
Now what happens is that we expect our interest rate to come down to the region of INR 55 crore for the next year, or slightly lower, but our target is we are very sure that we'll bring it down to INR 55 crore in the next year, from around a run rate of INR 80 crore this year, which is a substantial amount.
Because of the IRS.
Because of the IRS, and also backed by primary rupee debt rates also are coming down by about 1-1.25%. We have also negotiated with banks to bring down our rates. We'll also be doing similar exercise. We are doing a similar exercise on our working capital debt, and effectively we expect to save on both the fronts, ultimately bringing about INR 25-30 crores of savings. INR 25 crores we can take as a guaranteed amount, almost.
Understood, sir. And, what about-
It would almost be about 1.5, 1.5 points on 150 basis points on sales.
Understood, sir. And, what about the utilization, sir? Like, what is the optimum utilization for this new press in coming-
We expect the 16,000-ton press to deliver about INR 300 crore of turnover, but that will take a few years to fill up. Right now, we would start with a few parts that are a struggle to produce on our 8,000. That will get moved to the 16,500. As we have said earlier, we expect-
How much of-
Yeah, let me complete. You, you'll have full input after I... After, as we have said earlier, we expect company to grow by at least INR 300 crore in FY 2027, from where we close out FY 2026. So that growth will get, will be largely out of the non-16,500-ton machinery. The 16,500-ton will only ease production a little bit. It is not going to significantly add. Further growth will come out of the 16,500 in the months to come.
Understood, sir. And, sir, if you can give us some idea on what kind of-
Sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Maheshwari, but can you please rejoin the queue for follow-up?
Ma'am, just two minutes. This, please call, this information will be required by everybody. So we'll take this question and then move on the queue. I hope that's fine by your order.
Sure.
Can you repeat your question?
Yeah. So, sir, just for an idea, if you can brief about how much revenue, like, I know the full capacity, optimum capacity will give us INR 300 crore from this new press, but in FY 2027, how much is the scope for revenue addition from this press?
Hardly anything.
Understood.
Hardly anything.
Okay, sir.
We are covering. We start the press, we commission it, and then we move a few parts from existing to there, get ready, then as we approach customers, we fill up the press.
Okay, sir. Understood, sir. This we are talking about FY 2027, right?
Correct. Correct. FY 2026 is almost done and dusted, from your point of view, of course. From an operations point of view, we have two busy months.
Of course, sir. Okay, sir, I'll join back with you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Naveen Vijay from NVS Capital. Please proceed.
Good morning, sir. Just wanted an update on our EV subsidiary, Abhinava Rizel. On the sales front, where are we? Are we tying up with any fleet operators or somebody of that sort, sir?
Thank you, Naveen. We are working on a few customers, and we expect these customers to be in the bag. At least one of them to be in the bag in the next few weeks, couple of weeks.
Okay. And once they have signed up, only then we will go for full-scale manufacturing or?
We've kind of set up a line for anticipation, anticipating these such customers. We'll have to do some debottlenecking based on their volumes. So that, there's a conference call today with the customer also. So once we have some news, we'll share it with you. Hopefully, next quarter, I should have good news.
Great. Great. Great. My other question is on the power cost that you alluded to in your TV interview today morning, sir. What steps are we taking to basically not just the power cost to to kind of manage the overall operating cost to be very competitive?
Yeah. Basically, what has happened is TNEB has taken a long-term, given a long-term industrial power policy of increasing its rate per unit by 5% every year. So that is added to costs, plus also the job mix and lesser utilization of scale at some of our plants. So how do we counter this? First is improved scale. Then, we also look at doing power audits, energy audits, and bringing down the costs. Third, we are also shifting over to green power. We have all, we've identified a few parties, we've signed up with them, and we expect to save about INR 15 crore this year. This year means FY 2027 on power costs, by shifting over from grid power to EV power. Sorry, grid power to green power. My apologies, slip of tongue.
Okay, sir. Thank you. I'll join back-
On the interests and the power fronts, we expect to save almost INR 50 crore. We are looking at something in the region of INR 40-INR 45 crore between these two. And another 4-5 crore will come definitely out of other initiatives, like moving over to PNG, as against furnace oil, using LPG instead of furnace oil. We are judiciously looking at all this. Plus, we will also see better utilization, bringing down energy costs overall.
Great. Great. Thank you, sir. I'll join back in the queue.
Yeah. Possibly, I could have added this information about the power costs in the interview. Somehow,
Thank you.
I reserved it, possibly for this meeting.
The next question is from the line of Bala Subramaniam from Arihant Capital. Please proceed.
Good afternoon, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity. Sir, my first question-
Hi, Bala.
Hi, sir. Sir, I think we are commercializing, like 16,500-ton press. So it's basically for diversification. So right now, our CV segment is in nearly 75% range. Based on this diversification, and any further plans we have to enter any other specific segments? And, is there any plan to diversify to reducing the mix of CV to 60%-68% kind of range? And what specific non-CV end markets we are focusing, like agriculture, construction, oil and gas, or railways? And is there any timeline and target to achieve those levels?
Okay. You see, over the next few months, I would expect the CV to come to around 75%, and, PV to be about 10%, and the balance 50-odd percent to come from, off-highway and others. This would be what we would converge somewhere in FY 2027.
Okay, sir. Sir, we are targeting INR 300 crore kind of revenue. Orders are in place or we are in inquiry pipeline?
We are in inquiry mode. On the 16,000, we are in inquiry mode.
Okay, sir. Sir, my second question, regarding Abhinava Rizel—like beyond motor design capabilities, and, so, like, I'm trying to understand, what is the current cash burn rate? And secondly, what kind of, like, capabilities beyond motor design, whether we are focusing on, design side only or, it's kind of, like, six in, 6-in-1 solution providers, like, motor, controller, gearbox, those areas. So I'm trying to understand this, subsidiary regarding cash burn rate, EBITDA breakeven, and/or, like a strategic play.
Okay. I'll answer one and three. Two, I'm not in a position to answer at this point of time.
Okay.
First question, cash burn rate is about INR 0.8 crore-INR 1.2 crore a month. You can nominally take INR 1 crore a month.
Okay, sir. So this strategy side-
Second.
Yes, sir.
Yeah. Second, question on the EBITDA side, we are not in a position to predict EBITDA at this point of time. Let us see customer acquisition, and then we can talk about it. Third, I would expect EBITDA to be for the electrical industry, somewhere in the low double digits. If we are very lucky, around 15%, give or take a few points. Then, this is a wild guess, no commitment. The third thing on, product offering. Yes, currently we have motor design capabilities, but we realize that that is not enough. So customers are also asking us for 5-in-1, 6-in-1, and, therefore, we are looking at tie-ups to bring in, 6-in-1, 5-in-1 offerings.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vijay Kumar Pandey from Nuvama Wealth. Please proceed.
Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question. Sir, wanted to check the reason for our domestic performance as compared to other peers, because though the, I'm not talking about the exports, but domestic performance is still slightly weaker as compared to the other peers. So just want to understand, are we losing any market share, or is because this, we are not projecting some products which is growing in the commercial vehicle segment? You can just help us understand this, that will be pretty helpful. And secondly, the commercial vehicle, domestic commercial vehicle cycle now is in the upcycle stage. We are seeing a strong growth from both Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors CV. So can you help us understand what is your perspective into FY 2027, quarter 4 at FY 2027? Do you expect?
Are you also seeing the momentum to pick up in domestic CV segment? And if yes, then how should we look, at the growth rate, the industry growth rate or your growth rate?
Yeah, a few customers were not very happy in the last year on our performance, so we did lose some sales up to Q1 of this year. Then, we went back to them and found out why we were, you know, they were not happy with us, and found that largely the reason was, much better deliveries were expected. Since then, we have revamped our supply chain management, and we have gone ahead very positively with, customers, and we've clawed back the market share loss. I'm not at liberty to reveal customer or, customers, in this situation, so you can take it that we have clawed back our market share. Second is that, going forward, we expect the CV market to be pretty strong in, FY 2027. Customers are talking of about 10% growth.
If that happens, that will be great. But, being a tier one or tier two, we are not the market maker, we are a market follower. So I would expect that we would grow considerably in the coming year, and the 10%, at least, is very good news for us.
Okay. And also, sir, you also mentioned in the previous question about the interest swap. So this IR swap is with respect to Indian rupees and euros, that even if the Indian rupee appreciates, then also we should get the benefit, or is it only the case if INR depreciates, then it will be depreciation for us?
Yeah, good question. If the euro depreciates with regard to the rupee, we will gain.
Correct.
If the euro appreciates with regard to the rupee, we will lose.
Okay. Okay. Okay.
But because we have an export underlying exposure in exports, overall, it will be neutral for the organization. In fact, I always say that it is better that these forex loans lose money for us over a period of time, gently, not suddenly... because that means that our export business will, will be strong. If the rupee were to sharply appreciate and continue a steep appreciation, for example, export business itself could be under threat. Not just for me, but for-- not just for MM Forgings, but for everybody else.
Okay. Okay, sir. Thank you, and I'll fall back to the queue.
All the best for you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Akash from NV Alpha Fund. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, my first question will be on the gross margin front, sir. I think we have seen that come down considerably in this quarter, in spite of, I mean, exports coming back and even the domestic volume is growing. So would like more elaborate response on, I mean, where do we see these margins going, coming back to in FY 2027? And, yeah, and secondly, also wanted to understand what CapEx number will we be doing in FY. Will we be ending within FY 2026, and for FY 2027, what is the plan?
First question was on gross margin. Second and third?
Second was on CapEx, and third is on debt repayment. Basically, I think you are, you all are on an INR 80 crore run rate, and earlier you mentioned that you will be coming down to INR 55 crore in the next year. Am I understanding it right?
Yeah. This is with regard to interest, not with regard to debt repayment.
Uh.
Interest will come down from INR 80 crore run rate to INR 55 crore max run rate.
That will only be with the help of the swap, interest rate swap, is it? There will be no debt repayment?
No additional debt repayment. Whatever we repay, we may be borrowing for CapEx in this year.
Okay. Okay. And how much we have repaid in 2026? Have we repaid any interest in 2026 or debt in 2024?
We've repaid about INR 175-176 crore. Exact number, I'm not so sure, but between INR 165 crore and INR 175 crore. So Balaji, can you fill in?
Yeah, it is INR 177 crore for FY 2026.
Okay. Going forward, because we need to do CapEx, we won't be doing any further repayment, right?
No. What we do is we have to repay. I can't not repay. With INR 750 crore of debt, you cannot not repay. That INR 150-INR 160 crore repayment, this thing is on. But what we plan is we will not increase debt levels.
Okay.
We will spend only as much as we can repay, and we borrow for the new spending. The gross debt remains constant or comes down.
Understood. Yeah, if you could now address my questions on gross margins and the second on CapEx that you plan for the next year.
Yeah, CapEx, I've already said to Raja, first questioner. We were looking at about INR 150-odd crores of investment next year. How much of that will actually materialize and be paid out? All that we are, we are working with projects team and suppliers. Between INR 125-INR 175 crores would be our actual spending.
Sir, how much we have done till now in FY 2026?
I've already given the amount. One sec. About INR 135 crore, INR 137 crores is spent.
Everything for the 16,000 tonne is done, right? The CapEx?
No. About, if I'm not mistaken, about INR 50-odd crore will still remain.
Understood. Yeah, and will, will our gross margins now come back to our original levels of around 58%-59%, or that looks difficult considering the order that we've got?
We should get back to where we were originally. We should. That's our-
So what was the main reason for such a sharp drop? Like, I think it was almost a 5-10 drop.
Largely people cost and power. Power we have clawed back, people will claw back, and people also there will be the thing by way of additional growth.
Sir, I'm understanding from a gross margin perspective. I think those costs will have more of an impact on the EBITDA levels.
Uh, okay.
Which broadly we have managed on a quarter-on-quarter basis, we are around 17%. But it is mainly the gross margin that is, if I just remove the cost of production from my revenue, that percentage is almost down by 30%. Yeah.
Yeah. I'll come back to you, I know. My bad, I missed the gross margin for EBITDA. So I'll get back to you within the same or send you an email. If you can send us an email, we'll send out to everybody on the gross margin side.
Okay.
Largely, largely, I would say gross margins have dropped because of export revenues.
sir, just because now you, you are positive on exports reviving... So what kind of projections have we got from our customers in terms of volume ramp up as compared to last year? So on the last year base, how much increase in volume ramp up are they promising us for this year, FY 2027?
We would expect a INR 75 crore increase in sales because of the return of exports, particularly the U.S. market. INR 50-75 crore. Okay.
That is purely coming from U.S. itself, that is Class 8 related?
Yeah, Class 8 related.
Understood. Sir, for up to 16,000 tonnes, this will be my last question. For the 16,000 tonne, I mean, have we been able to finalize, you know, our orders or any POs or basically any final-
Many customers are interested. Many customers are interested. We have not yet bagged any. That will take some time. So we want to put the present operation first and then, run around for customers.
Because I believe you all already have the customers in place, right? Because since you all already export to U.S. and other markets, the same customers you already be booking orders for on the heavier tonnage, right?
Possible. But, to answer your question frankly and honestly, right now, no products are identified yet.
That INR 300 crore revenue potential, we are confident of filling it up by when?
2-3 years down the line.
FY 2029 will be a correct year to look at?
Yeah.
Understood. Just, just one, if I can squeeze in one more.
Twenty-eight.
Yeah, sir. Since you all are promising a INR 300 crore increase from the non 16,000 tonne forging, I mean, that will mainly come out of that around INR 75 crore from exports, and the balance is from the volume growth that comes in the Indian market, right? Or any other new projects we have won, new components we have won.
It comes from a combination of growth to current customers in the portfolio of products that we are supplying them. And also, we've launched a slew of new products that are coming in for bulk production, and we are also looking at this, at a set of new parts that have gone in for particularly the PV market in India.
Sir, if you could elaborate on that, the new parts, new, which will soon start.
Thank you, Mr. Akash. Can you please join the queue for more questions, as there are more participants in the queue?
Yes. So I'll just answer this question, sir. It's a needed one. We have looked at, we are getting, crankshafts for a PV customer in India.
Understood. So that's a top three OEM?
Project was delayed by about one year. It would have come last year, but now it's coming, has come into production from effectively December onwards. Volumes are reasonable.
So, is that a top three OEM, sir? I mean, if I may just-
I can't say that because that will give you the name prematurely, so we leave it at that. Customer name-
No problem, sir.
Yeah.
Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi. Please proceed.
Yeah. Sir, good to hear the positive commentary on demand and the cost savings, sir. Sir, as you mentioned, about INR 300 crore of new orders will come up next year, which include the current volume growth. So broadly, we can say 15%-20% could be the range of the growth for next year, where assuming domestic CV also grows by 10%. Thanks, sir.
Yes.
Got it, sir. On the, just on the data point, sir,
Can I get your name and the thing, please?
Yeah. Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi, sir.
Okay.
On the Q3, sir, just on data points, if you can help me, what was the Q3 production number? And, for the nine months, if you can help me, how was the sales volume tonnage in terms of domestic and export split, sir?
Overall, sales tonnage was about 54,000 tonnes. Am I right, Balaji?
Yes, sir. Yes, sir. Sir, up to-
And, uh-
Q3, FY 2026, we did 56,756. Sorry, 58,057, sir. Sales tonnage is 58,057, and production is 56,756 tonnage.
Okay, thanks. And within the sales, how much would be the domestic and exports, sir?
You can take the same, similar ratio as the overall percentage.
Sure.
About 30% would be exports and 70% would be domestic.
Got you. Sure. On the machining mix, sir, how do you see from a 53% this year, or how do you see the next few years based on the orders? I think in the past, we have invested a lot on the machining area, so just want to understand how that mix will change, sir.
M achining mix will go up. Almost all new orders are only for machining. Almost. Most new orders are for machining.
Got it. Got it, sir. So on the Abhinava Rizel, just want to update, last time you mentioned about this INR 20-INR 30 crore order. Is that the order you expect soon to be announced? And help us, I mean, which category this order is for them?
Yeah, that's the same thing that they're pursuing now. You're absolutely right.
Is it for this three-wheeler PV segment, sir? If you can help, sir.
I can't disclose that at the moment. After we go into production, I'll surely give you the feedback.
Got it, sir. Got it. And just finally, if you can help me, what is the net debt number for this, by end of December, sir?
About INR 550 crore, long term.
Okay, and short term, sir, also?
All told, INR 550 crore plus another INR 500 crore.
INR 500 crore. Got it, sir. Thank you, sir-
1,000, 1,000, 1,000 crore net.
Got it. Thank you for the opportunity.
One second, hold on. Exact net debt will be INR 1,065.
Yes, sir. Yeah, thank you so much. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Anubhav Mukherjee from Prescient Capital. Please proceed.
Hello, sir. Am I audible? Hello.
Yeah, of course.
Yeah. Sir, can you, like, give some more details on the medium-term outlook for, like, exports to U.S.? What I understand is that there's an emission norm change that was also about to come in, like, start of next year, 2027. So will that also result in some kind of pre-buy and, like, good growth for us? Like, if you can, like, throw some light on that.
Yes, we are expecting FY 2027, calendar 2026 to be a strong year, going up to-
Okay.
1 Q, 2 of 27.
Okay. So the emission norm change, that has not been rolled back, that is still, like, about to come?
As of now, not, but you know the U.S. government is functioning these days, so nobody knows.
Get that. And, sir, just a basic question: so, what I understand is that our exports to U.S. come under Section 232. So, given that, what will be the effective tariff now? Like, will it be 25% or 18%?
As it is, we think that it will be between the two.
Okay. Okay. So, we are also waiting-
Fine, fine print is not yet out. Fine print is not yet out, to the best of our knowledge. We're working, talking to customers. They're also expecting it to be between 18%-25%. If it is 18, then we stand at an advantage to competition.
Get that.
If it is 25, we are even steven.
Okay. Thanks for that. And, sir, this nine months, our exports to Europe has grown, seems to have grown quite significantly compared to last year.
Yes.
So can you give some color on that, and especially given this, Euro FTA also, will that be a, like, big help to us or... Yeah.
Yeah, the Euro FTA certainly will bring, if not more business, at least it puts, as I said earlier, it brings stability to the global economy itself. At a time when geopolitical turmoil and volatility is the call of the day, the Euro-India FTA will definitely brings in stability to the entire. If you see after that itself, the entire volatility and the tension in people's mind, particularly next to the U.S. deal also going through, that has come, the tension levels are, the perceived volatility has come down considerably. Right? So it augurs well only. And, the E.U. now has no excuse to shun Indian exports because we are opening up our market also to them considerably. So both ways, it's expected to add trade, similarly, so the U.S.
I think our government has done a fabulous job on, on both the fronts, and that couldn't have come at a better time. Good news for India as a whole.
Thanks, I'll get back with you.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Raghav Maheshwari from Kamakhya Wealth Management. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, thanks for the follow-up question opportunity again. So, sir, adding, building upon where we left the conversation in my previous question. So, sir, you mentioned that the press is not going to add any revenue in FY 2027. So, sir, can you, can you tell us, like, are the approval cycles so long for this, or is it that we are-
J ust taking a buffer time or are we, you know, estimating it to be a long time? So what is it like? I, I couldn't understand.
We, we set up our 8,000-ton press in 2016. Orders started flowing in only from 2018, and execution took from 2019 onwards. So that kind of time frame is required for the bigger equipment. This is not, you know, we are not plug and play, where you can sync everything and start banging from day one. Takes time.
Understood, sir. And, sir, my next question will be on the margin front. Like you had clearly mentioned that our interest cost is coming down, since we are at our peak debt levels, and also our depreciation cost is going to be slightly inflated because of all the CapEx that we have done. So, sir, what kind of EBITDA level margin as well as PAT level margin are we expecting for FY 2027?
I can't give absolute numbers, but I would say both should improve.
Improve from where we stand, right now?
Definitely.
Understood, sir. Thank you, sir. Those were my questions, and all the best.
Thank you, Raghav.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Munjal Shah from NSFO. Please proceed.
Good afternoon, sir, and your team. So just one broad question. Like, if we look based on your, you know, guidance and everything, and looking at the next five years numbers, okay? By thirty, can we do, like, INR 3,000-odd crore of turnover and 20% EBITDA margin, assuming INR 150 crore of CapEx annually?
That would be a kind of goal.
What type of, you know, probability would you put to that?
Sorry?
What type of probability would you put to that?
Strong.
Hello?
Strong possibility.
Strong possibility, right?
Yep.
Okay. Thanks. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Manas Jain from Sanjay Jain Family Office . Please proceed.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir. I just had a question on the similar, the foreign currency thing. So I think in the last con call, you mentioned that you're moving towards foreign currency borrowing. If you could quantify how much of that we have actually converted and, maybe, what stage we are in, and how are you planning to manage the currency risk on this exposure?
We've converted some, and we are converting the rest. We waited for the trade deal to go through, for obvious reasons, to eliminate the volatility, because nobody... At one point of time, everybody said rupee is going to tank, dollar is going to tank to 80, and then suddenly the rupee went the other way around. So because of the non-conclusion of the trade deal, and even now, not even now, most of the doubts are addressed, but, the trade deal has to be fine-printed. I'm sure, there will be sanity prevalent, across all, powers that be. So, given these conditions, the general outlook in the market is that the rupee would appreciate a tad from where it is, compared to the dollar and the euro.
That happens, we would gain on the covers that we have made. As I said earlier, long term for MM Forgings, it's better to lose a little bit on the Forex covers over a period of time with nominal depreciation, so that the export business continues to be more and more profitable for the company.
Okay. No, that I understood, sir. If, like, if you could give a number, how much is actually-
Okay. Yeah, okay. Sorry, your question had too many parts, now I recall. So one, the numbers to your question is, we are repaying about INR 160 crore a year, INR 160-INR 175 crore a year. That constitutes, I'd say, 30% exports on even 1,500 crore. That constitutes about one third of our exports.
Right.
Nominal.
You're doing it on, in the tune of our export revenue?
Correct.
In the-
It is well within our... The overall debt number-
You are almost-
No, no. The overall exposure will be larger than our overall exports, no doubt.
Okay.
But the repayment within a year will be within the export range.
So, but if the currency depreciates, sir, then you lose out on the, this thing or your profit.
Yeah, yeah. If there is a sudden depreciation, we would stand to lose out on the repayments of that year.
Mm.
And hopefully see sanity in the months to come. This is a very, it's a very complicated thing overall, but net to net, because there is underlying exposure of exports, which is much more compared to the term, the earnings and exports will be far greater than the loans repayment, so overall, we should only gain.
Okay. Right now the export is 40%, maybe it will be 40%-50% range. So you expect to be somewhere there then?
Correct. If you take 40% of even, say, INR 2,000 crore, nominally, let's be positive. We're looking at about 30%-35% of that is INR 700 crore.
Okay.
Which is where our gross debt itself stands.
Okay.
Got it. Got it. Got it, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Priyanka Sarkar from Square 64 Capital. Please proceed.
Yeah, good afternoon, sir. Sir, mine is a bit longer term question. So in the machining for us in FY 2016 was about 20%, and obviously, that has gone up, right, to about 58% in FY 2025. I'm talking for the full year, FY 2025. However, sir, if I look at the EBITDA margin, they are in the similar band, and I'm talking about over a 10-year period, right? So what could be the reason for the same?
Machining mix, sir. Can you, can you repeat your question, please?
Sir, in FY 2016, our machining as a percentage of overall revenue was 20%, and now that has increased to 58% for full year FY 2025. However, when we look at EBITDA margins, they have been in the similar range. Because as I understand, as machining goes up as a percentage, some EBITDA margins also should move up, but that has not happened in our case. So what could be the reason for the same?
Yeah, very astute one, and something that we should ponder over. See, what is happening is... What has happened between then and now is that our domestic sales has grown, and the domestic market pricing is tight. So that is the reason why profitability has not grown the way one would have expected it.
Right. So along with machining as a percentage going up, our export has to go up for the EBITDA margins to improve from here on, right?
In a sense, yes. Or we should not add less value-add machining. I would say possibly, we should add more value-add machining than the less value-add machining in the domestic market.
Sure, sir. Okay. And so the second-
Because our machining mix, unlike some of our competitors, especially the... Okay, why name anybody? Some of our competition is that, whose margins are pretty high, is that, we have a wide product offering. Okay, and some of those are not necessarily, you know, EBITDA spinners. So, and these have been the legacy parts. What has happened with legacy parts is that, almost in the domestic market, no prices have increased.
Mm.
Every customer, most customers who have given price increases have taken it away, because some competitors have gone and offered them, reductions, or at least a return of the price increases. So what has happened is that competition is brutal in the domestic market. Many competitors believe that, grow at all costs.
Uh, right.
This is not necessarily a reasonable strategy. So, yes, to answer your question, export should grow. Second, value-add machining should grow. That alone will contribute to growth of EBITDA.
Sure, sir. And sir, just a follow-up-
Just something off the saying. I'm not fully in line with that statement, but if you came across one recent book on 100-year-old companies, and one of the points that came up there was that these companies don't pump for growth. They're more focused on customers and look at profitability rather than just growth at any cost. I think if we are very, very concerned about EBITDA, you know, and other things, we should take such a view, that we should look at... But you run the risk of being premiumized, and then you get thrown out if you're premium, too premium. So it's good to have our hands dirty across the spectrum. Some value-add parts, some non-so value-add parts, and therefore, you maintain the competitive edge everywhere. A constant challenge is required. That's my learning.
Thank you.
Sure, sir.
The next question is from the line of Yash, an individual investor. Please proceed.
Good afternoon, sir. So congratulations on a very great and decent set of numbers. My question is on the debt portion, sir. So, I mean, just consider like a suggestion, or, sir, is there any plans of raising any rights issue or preferential or a QIP to considerably reduce that debt, actually? That was my question, sir. Yeah.
We are mulling.
Okay. Okay. Sure, sir. Sure, sir. Good luck, sir. Thanks for your detailed explanation, sir. Always, I got to learn a lot from you, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Your name, please?
My name is Yash, individual investor from Hyderabad, sir. Yeah.
Okay. Thanks, Yash.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vijay Kumar Pandey from Nuvama Wealth. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for allowing a follow-up. So just want to check, in terms of the gross margin, I expect what will be the gross margin?
Whole and machining separately?
We wouldn't be able to give you that number. Overall, there was a question on gross margins. My finance team tells me, Balaji, can you take that? Can you answer the earlier question on gross margins? Somebody said it went down, but actually you say that it's gone up.
Yeah, it, it went up. In fact, the gross margin went up by 3%. In fact, in FY 2026, that is, I'm talking about Q3, up to Q3, FY 2026, it is at 56%. 56.34, as against 53.57 at the corresponding quarter. Q3, FY 2025.
Corresponding nine months.
Yes.
Corresponding nine months.
Corresponding nine months, it went up by 3%.
Okay. Thank you, Balaji.
Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Harshit Vora, an individual investor. Please proceed.
Good afternoon, sir. Do we see any opportunities in the defense and aerospace sectors? And, is there any plan for us to expand in these segments?
There are opportunities in every space, no doubt. Right now, we are not pursuing much of those.
Any specific reason, sir?
We are focusing on the CapEx that we have done and the CapEx that we have committed to customers, so we are focusing on whatever we have acquired by way of customers and products.
Okay. Thanks a lot, sir.
Thank you. Due to time constraints, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you all for, as usual, a very incisive set of questions and, many new faces and new questioners this time. Welcome to all of you to MM Forgings, and hope you'll have continued interest in this talk. Basically, the revenue outlook for the next year looks pretty strong, coupled with, cost control measures on interest and on, power. We also initiate something on the people side. We should, look at a stronger performance in FY 2027. I'm pretty positive on both revenue as well as bottom line. Thank you all for your... The 16,500-ton press gets commissioned early next year and, goes into, production with some available parts, and we add new parts in the months to come. Abhinava Rizel, we are expecting some new customer addition in the next few weeks.
So hopefully all of this augurs well for the organization. Over the next few months and weeks, we expect things to dramatically improve, and also our performance and numbers. Thank you all.
Thank you. On behalf of Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone.
Thank you.
Thank you, Jayaraj.