Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Aarti Industries Q4 and FY 2025 earnings conference call. Today, we are joined by senior members of the management team, including Mr. Suyog Kotecha, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Chetan Gandhi, Chief Financial Officer. We will commence the call with opening thoughts from Mr. Kotecha on the Q4 and FY 2025 performance overview and outlook, post which we shall open the forum for Q&A, where the management will be addressing queries of the participants. Just to share a standard disclaimer, certain statements that may be made in today's call may be forward-looking in nature, and the disclaimer to this effect has been included in the results presentation that has been shared earlier and uploaded on stock exchange websites. I would now like to invite Mr. Kotecha to share his perspectives. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Nishit. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Apologies for joining this call 15 minutes late. Let me begin by acknowledging FY 2026 has started on a measured note, coupled with new uncertainties such as U.S. tariffs. The overall external environment remains volatile, marked by increasing global uncertainties stemming from geopolitical events and evolving trade dynamics, requiring us to remain agile and adaptable in our strategic planning. Having said so, we're seeing encouraging signs of stabilization in demand across several end-user industries and underlying volume growth across our businesses. The growth is being supported by our strategic initiatives to diversify our product portfolio, expand our geographical reach, and strengthen our customer relationships. Overall, we are well poised to navigate the current volatility and capitalize on the future growth opportunities within the evolving chemical landscape.
I'm pleased to share that we ended the challenging year with a positive note. We clocked in total revenue of INR 8,046 crore, posting a growth of about 15%, while EBITDA grew by about 3% to INR 1,016 crore on a consolidated basis. Commercialization of our various projects and higher interest costs in FY 2025 did increase the depreciation and finance cost components, resulting in a PAT of INR 331 crore. Speaking now about our Q4 performance, it has been steady on a sequential basis. We clocked in revenues of INR 2,214 crore, marking a 9% quarter-on-quarter growth, largely driven by volume recovery across all end applications. EBITDA for the quarter came in at INR 266 crore, reflecting a 13% sequential improvement. Likewise, PAT increased to INR 96 crore, mostly driven by better cost efficiencies achieved through higher volumes. Considering the annual performance, the board has recommended a final dividend of INR 1 per share for FY 2025.
Speaking to specific applications, I think volumes for energy application grew 21% quarter-on-quarter in the link to our strategy of diversifying and widening customer base and geographical spread as well. On the other hand, the base business has also shown good volume recovery across chains such as nitro toluenes, nitro chloro benzenes, and ethylation-based products, also linked by new capacity additions and improving demand landscape. These segments have also contributed to sequential uptake in overall performance and will now remain a focus area moving forward. Volumes in this segment grew by 14% quarter-on-quarter basis. Even an agrochemical inventory level seems to have stabilized now. The demand for other end-use applications like dyes, pigments, and polymer additives also remains positive. We are anticipating these volumes to continue this growth path as we move forward into the FY 2026 timeframe.
Earlier this year, we signed two renewable energy power purchase agreements for solar and hybrid power with Clean Max and Prozeal. These agreements are also on track, with one of them expected to start delivering within this calendar year, and the second one expected to begin by end FY 2026 or early FY 2027. Upon commencement, this will lower our operational costs and provide sustainability benefits, facilitating also a transition to a cleaner, more resilient energy landscape. Sustainability continues to be a key driver and focus area for future roadmaps. I'm happy to inform that AIL has been elevated to the CDP Leadership Bank for its outstanding performance in climate change and water security. Our ESG score also improved significantly to 62 in S&P Global DJSI Index, Dow Jones Sustainability Index, positioning us in the top decile of global chemical companies.
We have also maintained a gold medal in the EcoVadis CSR Assessment for 2025, marking our fourth consecutive year of excellence. Our score has also improved to 78, up from 72 last year. This places us in the top 5% of the companies assessed by EcoVadis. AIL has also been granted approval by the Indian Chemical Council to use the Responsible Care logo now for a three-year period from April 2025 to March 2028. All of these accomplishments reflect our unwavering commitment to the Responsible Care principles and highlight our dedication to sustainable practices and ethical conduct across all aspects of our operations. In FY 2025, several cost optimization initiatives, both variable and fixed, were also successfully completed, and we plan to achieve similar targets in FY 2026.
The key achievements include successful implementations of backpressure turbine projects to improve steam efficiency, scaling up our power generation through the first phase of the hybrid power project, which also helped us reduce carbon footprint and generate cost savings, and improvements across key product value chains such as ammonious, nitro chloro benzene, halides, and hydrogenation products. Additionally, we continue to take steps to optimize our fixed costs, and we are progressing quite well on that dimension. On the CapEx front for FY 2025, we stood at INR 1,372 crore, in line with our expectations. Our large project initiatives at Zone IV are being executed in phased manner, with the commissioning scheduled to progress in a staggered manner throughout FY 2026. Our newly operational pilot plant at Zone IV has already commenced commercial operations.
It will play a vital role in driving new product development, fostering innovation, and supporting diversification of our offerings moving forward. Based on our current plan, we expect CapEx for FY 2026 to be in the range of INR 952,000 crore. To sum up, while the external environment remains volatile, we are encouraged by our business resilience, agile cost control measures, and clear paths to capital discipline. We are entering FY 2026 with a strong execution pipeline, a healthier balance sheet, and a sharp focus on delivering sustainable and volume-led growth. Thank you, and I now welcome any questions from the participants.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchscreen telephone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Kumar Saumya from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good evening.
Sir, my question is on the volume growth. If you could give us an indication on the year-on-year volume growth in FY 2025 as well as the fourth quarter.
I think on a fourth quarter, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, non-energy business grew roughly by 14% and the energy business grew by almost 21%. I think that energy business volume growth was also linked to, as we explained in the last call, one of the shipments had got pushed out from Q3 to Q4. That is the range of volume growth numbers. If you look at year-on-year numbers, FY 2024 versus FY 2025, we are roughly at around 17% growth at overall portfolio level.
We expect to continue this growth momentum, at least in the volume side.
Look, I think if you look at the capacity utilization numbers that we've given, value chain by value chain, clearly shows that we have significant upside to drive volume growth based on existing asset footprint. We remain very aggressive in the market to capture growth as well as increasing market share to ensure we drive up our capacity utilization level.
Perfect. Thank you. I'll come back later.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Aditya Khetan from SMIFS Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. I have a couple of questions. Sir, onto the agrochemical business, we had witnessed that volumes had reported an uptick, but pricing still remained under pressure. Any specific reason, sir, for this? Because the destocking cycle has ended roughly around 9-10 months back. Why are the prices still weak?
I think we covered this in some of the earlier conversations. I think overall, our perspective is the inventory destocking story got done some time back. I think there is a genuine demand-supply imbalance issue for the agrochemical intermediates and downstream technicals. We are seeing volume recovery for sure, but given the amount of overcapacity that exists in China, that incremental volume growth is also served by marginal pricing. That is where we are not seeing uptick on pricing/margins at this stage. Going forward, especially with the US tariffs announcements, there are some moments happening in the overall agrochemical value chain. We expect, at least from a downstream product flowing to U.S. point of view, there should be positive traction. In that context, the requirement of intermediates for our domestic customers is expected to go up.
Sir, so this would benefit after the tariff imposition, or do you think the demand-supply dynamics will automatically adjust and we can see improvement from the very first day?
No, I think it will take its own time to adjust. What is very clear is that the volume and the demand growth is there. I think pricing and margin is a bit of a complex question to answer because there are second, third-order impacts. If the downstream exports of Chinese technicals and formulations get impacted, I think they will also have a tendency of dumping the intermediate product portfolio in the remaining part of the world. In that context, how as a country and as a market, we protect ourselves from that dumping will also determine to some extent our margin profile for those intermediates. I think the impact coming out from U.S. tariffs, especially on the agrochemical sector, the second, third-order level of impact is yet to become visible. Our sense is it will take a few months to play out.
Got it. Sir, when we say that the agrochemicals and pharmaceuticals volumes are witnessing an uptick, even the dyes segment also, why is the dichlorobenzene volume in the second half relatively weak compared to the first half?
Dichlorobenzene, the end application, is actually polymer. I think PDCB specifically goes into the polymer segment, mostly into PPF, which is used in automotive kind of applications. That segment has been under pressure from a demand point of view. I think in the first half, we were actually expecting much more inventory correction by some of our customers in the U.S. and Japan. That is what impacted the DCB chain volumes. Again, even in that case, we have seen some level of inflow coming in, especially from the U.S. customers, to advance their shipments in the first quarters to have certainty around the tariff impact. We will see slightly different behavior over the next three months. In general, the DCB volume question that you asked was more linked to polymer end application, and it was not linked to the other two applications.
Got it, sir. Sir, just one last question. Sir, this quarter, SABIC, which is the Saudi chemical giant, so they have also reported losses at the bottom line. Sir, one of our long-term contracts is linked with SABIC. Does this change or alter any of the offtake agreements with them?
No, there is no impact on our arrangement at this point.
Okay. Got it. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Vivek Rajamani from Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Hi, sir. Thank you so much for the presentation, and congratulations on a good set of numbers. Two questions from me. Firstly, on the MMA side, I think you mentioned in your comments that you have made progress on expanding the customer base as well as the geographic base. Could you just talk a bit more about what kind of customers these are and what kind of impact they could have in terms of the pricing as they ramp up? That's the first question.
I think the MMA effort, as we mentioned earlier, I think we're obviously trying to diversify consumption, which was more concentrated mostly towards the Middle East. Now we are seeing increasing supplies going to the US, some of the high-speed supplies going into Europe, as well as the Indian volume is also looking up. In that context, the broader geography diversification is playing out. At this point in time, we remain focused on market development. The objective is that we have a significant capacity to produce this particular product. We remain focused on developing the market and ensuring there is a much wider customer base which has used the product, understood the value proposition, and is able to consume it in sort of larger quantities in their end applications. From a pricing and margin point of view, it's relatively linked to raw material in most cases.
I think most of the global markets do understand it to a great extent now. It is the key raw material which drives ultimately the MMA price. At the same time, there is also an impact of the downstream end market. As we've explained before, ultimately, the viability of the product to the end customer is linked to the gasoline-naphtha economics and gasoline-feed economics. The combination of the two is what determines the pricing. Right now, our focus remains on developing the market for the higher volumes.
Sure, sir. Thank you so much for that. The second question I had was more from the broader customer base. I just wanted to get your thoughts with everything that's happened recently in the past few months. How are the customer conversations generally evolving into the remainder of 2025 and 2026? Is there more uncertainty? Is there a shift towards probably more short-term contracts? Could you just give us a sense of how the customer is thinking about everything that's been evolving? Thank you.
I think if you're asking specifically about MMA, then I think, as I said, we are in a development phase. I think every conversation is sort of discovery of a new client, taking them through the entire sampling, qualification, trial, test sort of try-and-test kind of mode. That journey continues.
No, sir. Sorry. Yeah. Yeah. No, I was actually talking non-MMA. I think you covered MMA.
Sure. Yeah.
On non-MMA, maybe more on the actions. Yeah.
On non-MMA, frankly, the volume growth still looks very strong. I think, yes, the recent events do pose a challenge where some of the customers start going into sort of holding decision kind of mode because there is so much uncertainty around what's going to happen to tariffs, what's going to happen to end market growth, will there be recessionary pressures, will growth rates come down. I think in that context, we saw there was a phase in which there is kind of a holding pattern where people start pushing out key decisions. Over the last few weeks, we have also started seeing people coming back and sort of moving on with respect to regular business. In general, we are anticipating the tariff issues to settle down over the course of the next two to four months.
That will definitely bring much more clarity in terms of how the final trade flow will settle.
Sure, sir. I'll return the queue. All the way best.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Abhijit Akella from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, and thanks for taking my question. First, on the outlook for fiscal 2026, would it be possible to share any revenue or EBITDA kind of targets you have for the year? I know there is a three-year target out there. But anything you would like to share for fiscal 2026, please?
No, I think we are, Abhijit, we are not talking about specific yearly guidance. We mentioned that last time. We've set out a strategy for a three-year. I think the only thing I can confirm is we remain on track to deliver that three-year numbers. Of course, not all of it is back-ended. I think we've also given clarity on initiatives that will lead us to that range. The initiatives are a combination of cost, operating leverage-related ramp-ups, and then new capex-led growth. In this time's presentations, we have also talked about, at least given some indication of which of these initiatives are completed, which of these initiatives are sort of ongoing and advanced years of completion. In that context, what we can say is that we continue to remain optimistic about volume-led growth for the coming financial year.
From a three-year standpoint, we are not changing the guidance that we had given earlier. We feel confident and remain on track to achieve that.
Okay. Second, just on the tariff impact, are most of the products you export to the U.S. exempt from the tariffs? If so, what sort of implications, if any, do you see for your business in the context of this whole tariff development?
I think if you want one-line summary, then I can say that the overall U.S. tariff impact on AIL is a bit mixed. Because it is complex, we have a wide variety of the product portfolio. Different products have different implications because some products are part of Annexure-2, some products are not part of Annexure-2. In general, the products where we are directly competing against China, and if they are not exempted, if they are not part of Annexure-2, then in that context, of course, we have a positive tailwind. Likes of, for example, NPD is one of the products in the PDA chain where in the near term, we are seeing positive demand traction because it is not part of exemption and the competition was from China. There is a clear-cut advantage.
While there are some products which are part of exemptions, but even though they are part of exemptions, I think there is a tendency generally coming out from the market to see if they can source better volumes from India, provided we are able to meet the pricing expectations. There is a second category of products, and there are a lot of products in that category, especially in the sort of agrochemical science and life sciences. The third category of the product is, for example, MMA, where we are not really, frankly, competing head-on with any particular manufacturer, but it is more of a market development effort that we are doing. In that context, of course, tariffs have a negative impact because they straightaway add cost to the product for the final customer, and the economic viability does get a little bit compromised because of increased costs.
I think three types of scenarios I described, all of them have different types of impact. We are not even talking about second, third-order impact. Right now, we are talking about a direct product-level impact. In the overall three to four-month time frame, the second and third-order impact will also start to come through in terms of what happens to end-use sector growth, what happens to U.S. demand, what happens to the extra volume that gets freed up from China. All of that is expected to play out over the course of the next few months and quarters. At current level, based on our best judgment, we can say it's a mixed impact on AIL. Certain products are definitely seeing positive traction.
Whereas for certain products, we're trying to adjust the pricing to ensure that the tariff impact is absorbed by both sides in a fair manner.
That's a really helpful color, actually. Thank you for that. Just one last thing for me before I rejoin the queue. Just on the CapEx outlook for fiscal 2026, the INR 1,000 crore approximate number, what projects specifically is that going into, the bulk of it? From a revenue growth standpoint for fiscal 2026, is it coming primarily from better utilization of the existing product capacities, or are there any significant contributions from the newer projects you are commissioning? Say, for example, Zone IV engine that's getting commissioned. Thank you.
Yeah. So I think bulk of the capex spend that we have committed right now is going to Zone IV. I think we will complete the Zone IV CapEx by and large within this financial year. And a significant part of that number is sort of reserved for that. In terms of volume growth for this year, a large part of it will come from existing assets which are already commissioned. Zone IV staggered commissioning will happen throughout, let's say, quarter three, quarter four of this financial year, especially the multi-purpose plant, the calcium chloride plant is expected to start up in Q3. We do not think there will be a significant addition to volume growth based on this. It will take time to stabilize, ramp up during this financial year.
The volume growth from all of these assets will actually start to get reflected from the next financial year. Yes, this year, I think we are pushing for volume growth from the existing assets which are already stabilized and ramped up.
Understood. Thanks a lot, and all the best.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Arun Prasath from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the impact of the current crude prices on the MMA. I understand that our margin, I mean, probably our realization will also go down as the crude price comes down. What will happen to the spreads, especially the gasoline-naphtha spread? Historically, has it come down? That will also have an impact on the MMA margins that we will be realizing?
Arun, the crude prices have corrected very sharply. At absolute level, gasoline and naphtha have also corrected. The gasoline-naphtha spread has actually widened a bit if you look at the March number, sorry, sale number, for that matter. As I described, I think absolute prices are of importance, but at the same time, the delta is also of larger importance because that is what determines the viability of the product. That is first. Second, as the absolute prices are coming on the crude gasoline side, even the raw material is also coming down quite significantly. Though, of course, there will be a lag in terms of adjusting the raw material from an inventory valuation standpoint because bulk of this raw material is imported from out of India.
Usually, there's a lag of one and a half, two months to get the pricing adjusted from a raw material costing point of view. There is also significant correction on that front. In that context, I think overall, we feel the current gasoline-naphtha differentials are maintained. We are hoping to continue on the volume trajectory.
Directionally, the spread increase on the lower crude price, is it a short-term event, and it will revert to the mean or the medium term? Is it the right understanding?
Frankly, I would be totally honest, very difficult for us to forecast on gasoline-naphtha spread, especially in a different crude price environment. I think I have seen now forecasts from three different agencies in the last six months, and none of them have panned out the way it was supposed to be. What we remain focused on is to ensure that what's important for us at this point in time is that the product is available to more and more customers in the global market. That is what we remain focused on. The current level of differentials is good enough for people to try out this product and sort of scale up the usage of this product.
The third aspect is we continue to optimize on our costs, both raw material as well as operating costs, to ensure that we are able to offer better value proposition to our customers.
Great. Thank you. Understood. Second question is on our EBITDA, three-year EBITDA growth outlook that you have given. Out of the three buckets, one is cost optimization and then volume ramp-up and then CapEx-led growth. Is it fair to assume that cost optimization that we will be realizing this year in FY 2026?
From an implementation point of view, bulk of it will be getting done in FY 2026. From an EBITDA accrual of that saving initiative point of view, it will go into, I think, the full accrual will happen into next and next sort of not in this financial year, but the next financial year, especially the hybrid projects which are expected to contribute also significant value. They will start accruing to bottom line fully from start of FY 2027. Implementation-wise, yes. Accrual point of view, slightly delayed.
Even for the cost optimization bucket?
Yeah. Especially the hybrid power part of it.
Okay. Understood. So largely, this 2026 fiscal earnings growth will be led by the macro parameters?
Yeah. I think, as you said, I think we remain focused on driving up utilization of surplus capacity that we have in the existing chain and then continue to optimize the cost.
Understood. Thank you very much for all yours.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of [Deekshant Gupta] from Geojit PMS. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good evening. My question was, what exactly would be the reason for higher expense growth than the sales growth, even though the sales volume has grown a lot? Number-wise, the expenses have grown a lot, but the sales number has not grown as much. What would you attribute that to?
There is an increase in global valuation of shipments. The export numbers have been significantly higher. If I have to put the number out, 55% of revenue for the quarter is from exports as compared to the previous year where it was close to 48%-50% kind of stuff. That is resulting into increasing the fleet cost.
Okay. You are saying that after the cost optimization takes place, then the margins will improve and the profitability will go up?
Yeah. That is how it will pan out.
With decreasing crude oil and petrochemical prices, do you see that the volume growth can offset the pricing pressure?
I think both, frankly, are a little bit delayed. I think for us, if you look at the reducing price environment, right, if you really want to sort of go a bit deeper into the analysis, what are the major raw materials that we consume? We have benzene, we have nitric acid, we have aniline, right, and we have toluene to some extent. Out of which, benzene and nitric acid, we practically operate on very, very limited inventory. We are talking about one- to five-day kind of inventory. In that context, the pricing impact in our inventory is immediate, right? Our ability to manage that to our customer is very, very high. Versus aniline is where we import the raw material.
Of course, we have to maintain certain inventory, and then there is a one and a half, two-month lag in terms of reflecting the latest market pricing into our inventory valuation, which is where we have to manage the inventory valuation to some extent while ensuring that we give the best possible service to our customers. On a net-net basis, from a volume growth point of view, we manage our inventories and pricing in a way where we do not let that impact our volume growth. That has been the philosophy for the operations.
Okay. Thank you. That is all from my side.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Harsh Shah from HSBC Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Hi. Just one question. In your balance sheet, your debtor days have reduced on a year-on-year basis. Inventory days more or less is the same. But your payable days have more than doubled. What is the reason for that? Because if you look at it from a cash flow perspective, also apart from operations, increase in debtor days has led to a significant cash flow accretion for you in this year. Yeah, what is the reason for that?
Say, more of some of the import of raw material, which is aniline and everything, comes at a longer credit, which is where the numbers have gone up. Also, the aniline consumption over the last 12 months has been significantly higher. If you look at the volume data of different products, MMA, the volume numbers the first two years have increased by more than 38%, close to 38% or so. That has resulted in higher consumption of aniline, higher import of aniline, which comes at a longer credit.
Okay. Okay. Entering FY 2026, will this remain like this, or will this reduce? Because this is, again, also one of the reasons why your assets and net debt has remained range-bound.
It should remain like this. I guess with increasing the volume, probably there could be a bit of an uptick every opportunity available. Broadly, I would say between here and a bit of increase in those numbers, we will be somewhere midway.
Right. As a company basis in the whole of FY 2026, or you can also write for H1 if the outlook is still not there, what is the overall working capital days that you are looking at?
I should be somewhere between 70 days-80 days kind of stuff. I mean, we will work out some numbers, but yeah, it should be in that range.
Because ideally, that will lead to reduction in payable days, which will again shoot up your debt position. Your cash may not be able to handle that much of reduction in payables. So yeah.
No, I think you should probably look at the absolute number of working capital. I think we feel pretty comfortable with where we are. I think without increasing the absolute INR crore in working capital, we should be able to handle the FY 2026 volume-led growth is our current sense.
Okay. Sorry, just last question from my end is with respect to net debt, you closed the year somewhere around INR 3,500 crore. For FY 2026, how will this number look like figuratively or directionally?
Directionally, I guess we would have peaked out. We expect the number to be lower. We are expecting some unlocking of cash flow from working capital as well. Plus the CapEx agency is also going down. Directionally, I expect the number to be lower by maybe INR 200 crore-INR 300 crore kind of stuff.
Okay. Okay. That's it from my side, yeah. Thank you. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Vijay [Sthoka] from Nuvama. Please proceed.
Hi. Good evening, sir. Archit, you are from Nuvama. Sir, I wanted to get a better sense of growth prospects in FY 2026 given that we have given our utilization levels. I think it's quite conceivable that PDA, nitro toluene, and ethylation, these are the kind of low-hanging fruits here. What would be the utilization of NCB and DCB given that we are about 70%, even in hydrogenation? Where could we peak out? If you could just give a directional sense of how do we see these three value chains of PDA, nitro toluenes, and ethylation in terms of any visibility that you can give with regards to volume growth in FY 2026?
Look, I think we'll talk about value chains specifically. Let me start with PDA, which has frankly been an underperformer for the last few years. If you go by the current latest trends, I think we expect significant uptick in utilization levels because of increasing demand in the U.S. given by tariff issues. That chain should see a higher level of utilization compared to last year. NCB, nitrochlorobenzene as a chain, given a couple of large customers are increasing their capacity. Bulk of the application there is pharma. Both large customers are increasing capacity. Through the year, we also expect the NCB capacity utilization to go up from the current levels. DCB, frankly, we expect maybe we should be able to maintain the current level of utilization level.
This is where we are. There's a mixed bag in terms of the downstream consumer demand of PPS, which is going into automotive, a little bit of pressure. Depending on how U.S. and Japan plays out, there could be some impact on the demand of DCB chain. Broadly, maybe we are able to maintain the current selection levels. Nitro toluene and ethylation are linked to each other because NT provides raw material for the ethylation chain. That's where the life cycle, sorry, the life sciences and the agrochemical story comes into play. We are expecting higher utilization compared to last year for this particular chain. It is a ramp-up process because we expanded capacity very recently. The full capacity actually got proven only in Q4 FY 2025.
It will take a bit of a time to ramp up the capacity utilization levels, but nonetheless, the numbers should be better than the last year.
Sure, sir. Got it. That's helpful. I just have another one on MMA. I was just reading some articles with regards to some new competition beefing up in China. I think there's a company named Jiangsu New Materials who has planned a 400,000 ton capacity, almost double of our size. While I'm aware that the opportunity for developing this market is immense, do we see this trend of either switching from MTB to MMA or developing this market even in other areas is becoming a trend? Would that be of any impact to us in the near to midterm?
No, I think competition will come, right? I think people do track us closely. In that context, it is expected that competition will come up as and when we scale up certain products. That is perfectly fine. If more people are trying to develop the market, it also works in industry's favor. We do have a certain unique advantage for this particular product. I think, of course, we have a head start in terms of supply chain capabilities that we have built over the course of the last two years that allows us to do some unique things which are not available to a lot of other players, including, I think, some of the freight components, especially for sending bulk shipments to the Middle East, to Europe, or U.S. I think we have slightly better position at this stage compared to competition.
In addition to that, I think we remain sort of in the market aggressively to expand more and more customer base. Of course, we are expecting competition in the product, and people will ramp up capacities over the course of, we do not know, maybe a year, maybe two. At the same time, we feel the market is large enough to absorb the volumes. We do build certain competitive advantages, which allows us to better capture the market share.
Sure, sir. That's great. Thank you and all the best for the next step. Thanks.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Surya Narayan Patra from Phillip Capital. Please proceed.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity, sir. My first question is on, let's say, on the MMA. Since it is a new product area, and we have been seeing a kind of rapid expansion in terms of volume over the last few years. Given the kind of new customer addition and all that, how to see the progression and the growth in terms of volume for this product, let's say, for FY 2026?
Look, I think we've described what's our current capacity. We have also said that over the course of the next two years, we are targeting to utilize that capacity. That's where I think we will remain focused. Whether we take 12 months, 18 months, 24 months to reach to a decent level of capacity utilization will be linked to the success of market development efforts. That's the overall strategic direction that the current capacity numbers, we should be able to develop market good enough to absorb that volume in a two-year kind of time frame.
Okay. Okay. Overall, let's just say the overall growth for FY 2025, as you say, it is entirely led by the volume-led growth. Given the kind of new projects that we commissioned in the later part of FY 2025, and hopefully and potentially the chlorotoluene, which is likely to also come in the second half of FY 2026, and also the likely ramp-up in the MMA volumes given the new customer addition. Going ahead for FY 2026, is it fair to believe that the volume-led growth, again, it would be a volume-led growth, and the volume-led growth would be better in FY 2026 compared to FY 2025?
Right now, our base assumption, we are factoring in most of the growth led by volumes. Yeah, we are not factoring a significant recovery in the margins because we do not see the demand-supply imbalances from China getting corrected soon. However, though that is correct at a macro level, I think from a near-term point of view, there are events which are difficult to predict, right? How the U.S. tariff scenario will pan out, how the geopolitical uncertainty will pan out is difficult to predict at this stage. From a management focus point of view, I think we remain focused on delivering the volume growth. Margin is a function of a lot of external factors as well. If there is opportunity, we will capture it, right? That is not a base assumption with which we are going into the financial year.
Okay. Okay. Just even to add some more clarification, let's say, is it fair to believe that the volume-led growth, what we are talking about for FY 2026, that would be higher than the FY 2025 growth, what we have seen? Or not predictable at this moment?
I think difficult to comment. Look, I think we don't want to start talking about sort of quarter on quarter, you want to get exact sort of volume growth. I think we have certain assets. We've been very transparent with respect to where we are on the capacity utilization for these assets. In a three-year plan, if you see, bulk of the operating leverage-oriented initiatives, we are targeting to finish it in the first two years, right? That's where we expect most of our assets, barring few where we have, let's say, costing issues where we are not competitive with respect to the world-scale assets from other players, we should be able to reach respectable level of utilization levels within the first two years kind of time frame.
Okay. Sir, since it is the full-year result that we are discussing, is it possible to just update about what is the kind of level of performance that we are having for the long-term contracts? So whether we are in the expected lines or it is slightly below given the kind of demand situation that is prevailing currently, or how should we be thinking about the long-term contracts that we've been doing so far for FY 2025, and what is the likely outlook for those contracts for FY 2026?
Yeah. Look, I think contractually speaking, I will take the simpler ones first. I think the 20-year purchase agreement that we have for nitric acid continues to perform exactly as per contract. No issues on that front. The other project that we have, which is where sort of our profitability is ensured, right? It is polymer application with the global major. I think that continues to run very well. No changes on that front. There is another contract which we have with the U.S. major for a very advanced specialty, polymer intermediate, which has started ramping up only last year. We are expecting that to do even better in the coming year, right, with the asset now stabilizing and demand kind of picking up. I think those are the easier ones.
I think rest of the contracts are sort of, they're kind of sort of supply contracts for some of the key intermediates. There, individually, depending on the end market applications, there will be a variation, right? I think the contracts ensure that there is a relationship between the two parties where we have sort of privileged access to each other. There are certain contractual terms in terms of volumes and pricing. They do very much link to market conditions. That is how it is playing out at this point in time.
Okay. Sir, just one question for Chetan sir. What is the export number for the quarter, sir?
The export number for the quarter was roughly INR 1,240 crore.
Okay. INR 1,240 crore. Okay. So there is a kind of marked improvement. Sequence, say, let that be.
Yeah. As I just showed earlier, and it was shared in the last call, a couple of bulk shipments of export, which were expected to move out in Q3, end of Q3, which did not move and which moved out in Q4. That has also been one of the factors why some of these numbers are higher. Yeah, there is a significant improvement in export volumes, as you have mentioned.
Okay. If there would be a kind of a normalization in the export, then the other expenses are also likely to see a normalization going ahead? Or how?
Yeah. Exports are a higher component of trade, which is why you'll see those other expenses going up. If I have to specifically look at the fixed cost, the fixed cost actually has been lower on a sequential basis or more lower to package kind of a situation. It's more of this freight and other components in this.
Sure. Okay. Yeah. Thank you, sir. Wish you all the best.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Siddharth Gadekar from Equirus. Please proceed.
Hi, sir. So first on the tax rate, how should we think about the tax rate for FY 2026?
We still have one more year of heavy CapEx cycles, which is where the IT depreciation is going to be high. So we continue to remain lower and compute on the tax rate. I know that we have been negative on the tax rate level. I expect it to be somewhere close to my single digit in next year.
Okay. So secondly, on the trade tables, I was not clear on your answer that trade tables have jumped by INR 600+ crore this year. How should we think about this number going into FY 2026 and FY 2027?
I believe there will be a potential uptick of maybe around INR 100-150 crore, maybe INR 100-200 crore in next year, assuming the volumes continue to grow in the trajectory they are.
The trade tables will increase, you're saying, by another 100?
Yes.
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Jay Bharat Trivedi from Incredi MC. Please go ahead.
Hello. Am I audible?
Yeah.
Yes.
Yes. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. First question I have is with regards to the CapEx that we are doing, the INR 1,000 crore CapEx that we have estimated, how much of it would be maintenance CapEx, and how much of it is in the nature of new chemistries or new products what we are getting into?
I guess the maintenance CapEx and some CapEx related to some of the initiatives which are there on the existing product should be in the range of INR 150 crore-INR 200 crore or so. Beyond that, everything will be for the new initiatives. The Zone IV is going to be a bulk of that.
Okay. So INR 150-INR 200 crore is the maintenance CapEx, and rest is for new products. Correct?
Yeah. Yeah.
Okay, sir. I was just quickly doing some numbers on the guidance which you have given for FY 2028. For the INR 1,800 crore-INR 2,200 crore EBITDA, will our PAT fall around INR 900 crore-INR 1,000 crore, in the INR 900 crore-INR 1,000 crore range, or am I far off? I do not want an exact number, but am I in the same lines? What are your assumptions there, or?
If I look at FY 2028, my depreciation, which is currently at around INR 400 crore, should be somewhere between INR 580-600 crore, or between INR 580 crore-INR 620 crore kind of crores. Let's assume INR 600 crore-INR 620 crore on depreciation. Interest, I'm not sure what's going to be the interest rate scenario, but let us assume a current number of around INR 250 crore-INR 270 crore. Then we will have around roughly INR 850 crore going out. I would assume at INR 1,800 crore, we would be somewhere between INR 900 crore-INR 1,000 crore, sorry, at a PBT level. At INR 2,200 crore, we'll be somewhere between close to INR 1,200 crore-INR 1,300 crore and up.
Okay. Thanks, sir. Those were my questions. Thank you so much and all the best, sir.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Meet Vora from Emkay Global. Please proceed.
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. Just on this MMA side, so while we are seeing that in the U.S. market, it would add extra cost on the consumer, and there could be some impact because of absorbing this cost at their end. My understanding was that this is imported by blenders for re-exports, and thus tariffs will not be applicable. So is MMA a part of exemplist, or is it not?
No, MMA is not part of exemplist.
Is it used for re-exports, or tariffs will be applicable on this?
No, our current understanding is tariff will be applicable on this.
Okay. Secondly, as regards NPD, have we seen any benefit coming in Q4 because of maybe pre-buying, or will we see that largely in Q1? Also, in terms of FY 2026, will Q1 see higher volumes, and maybe once tariffs taper off, will we see a rollback in Q2 because we have significant capacities compared to the utilization right now? I was just trying to gauge the benefit of this NPD product.
No, so I think the tariff announcements only came in April first week. In that context, we saw upside—or we are seeing upside as we speak from this quarter standpoint. How it stabilizes in the mid to long term will depend on how the tariff situation finally settles down. Yes, from a Q1 point of view, on this specific molecule, we do see some upside.
Understood. Thanks. That's all from my side.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take this as the last question for the day. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.
No, so thank you, everyone, for taking our time late evening. As we mentioned earlier, I think despite a challenging year, we ended a year, I would say, on a positive note with a year-on-year growth, both on revenue as well as on EBITDA. As we get into FY 2026, despite volatile macros, we remain quite focused on driving all the cost improvement initiatives, remain very agile in our business operations to ensure that we take opportunities wherever available, given the geopolitical uncertainty. In that context, remain committed to deliver on our three-year guidance. Thank you, everyone, and have a good night.
Thank you, sir. On behalf of Aarti Industries, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.