Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Aarti Industries Limited Q4 FY23 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then 0 on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Nishith Solanki from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Aarti Industries Q4 and FY23 earnings conference call. Today, we are joined by senior members of the management team, including Mr. Rajendra Gogri, Chairman and Managing Director. Mr. Ashish Gogri, Vice Chairman and Managing Director, and Mr. Chetan Gandhi, Chief Financial Officer. We will commence the call with opening thoughts from Mr. Rajendra Gogri, who will take us through the performance overview, insights on growth plans and outlook on the business. Post this, we shall open the forum for Q&A, where the management will be addressing queries of the participants. Just to share our standard disclaimer, some statements that may be made in today's call may be forward-looking in nature and a disclaimer to this effect has been included in the results presentation that has been shared earlier and also uploaded on stock exchange websites.
I would now invite Mr. Rajendra Gogri to share his perspectives. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. very good evening to everyone. I welcome you to all our Q4 and FY 2023 earnings conference call. Hope everyone is keeping safe and healthy. We have shared our results document, I hope that you have had an opportunity to glance through them. As all of you are aware, the financial year 2023 has been challenging from various aspects. What started with Russia-Ukraine conflict that disrupted the global supply chain transpired into an inflationary surge in input prices and energy costs. This was in addition to the slowing demand in select developed markets due to deteriorating economic scenario and very recently the banking crisis in the U.S. that sent shock waves across the globe. Amidst all this, we displayed resilience, thereby demonstrating strong financial performance through a challenging external environment.
This was possible due to our dynamic approach of building a superior business enterprise by meticulously leveraging our strength in complex chemistry products and processes. We have built a strong team, both technical and non-technical, who have consistently supported us in our growth endeavors and helped us navigate through sector vagaries. Our EBITDA for the year ended up very close to guidance of INR 1,100 crore for FY23. We achieved an EBITDA of close to INR 1,100 crore in FY23. Our CapEx investment was over INR 1,300 crore. Our exports were close to half of total revenues, while the share of value-added products had increased consistently in FY23. If you look at a long-term journey, our chemical business EBITDA has grown over 2x during the past five years.
That is from INR 534 crore in FY18 to INR 1,091 crore in the current year. This is despite several challenges witnessed during the periods like pandemic and external market-led disruptions, supply chain issues, as well as inflationary headwinds. The sustained EBITDA performance is testament to our vibrant business model and ability to steer growth even in the most challenging periods. We also concluded the activity related to demerger of our pharma business into a separate entity, RP Pharma that during FY23. Since the demerger was effective July 2021, the financials for the historic period prior to the scheme being adopted, that is in October 2022, had been recasted to consider the impact of demerger. Moving on to further development, we collaborated for a long-term assure of tech of nitric acid, which is a key raw material.
This secures our supply for 20 years and significantly derisk several risks more. On the project front, we commercialized the facility for third long-term contract, 2 specialty chemical block process blocks in Jhagadia in H2 FY23. While our other expansion plans in existing products such as nitrochlorobenzene expansion, acid expansion, et cetera.
Sorry to interrupt you. Mr. Gogri, we lost your audio in between. It's breaking up in between, sir.
Hello, now I'm audible?
Yes, now you're audible. Please go ahead.
Yeah, okay. I'll just repeat. On the project front, we commercialized the facility for third long-term contract and 2 specialty chemical process blocks at Jhagadia in H2 FY 2023. Our other expansion plans in existing products such as NCB expansion, acid revamp and expansion, aniline and nitrotoluene expansion, et cetera, are on track. This CapEx, along with the ones already commercialized, will support the volume growth in FY 2024 and beyond. I will now move to financial performance. Initially, let me summarize the annual numbers. Our annual revenue increased by 17% to INR 7,283 crore, while EBITDA came in at INR 1,089 crore, higher by 19% over the normalized EBITDA of INR 919 crore for chemical business in FY 2022, excluding the termination and shortfall income. Profit After Tax stood at INR 545 crore.
In light of strong performance reported during the year, the board has approved a final dividend of INR 1.5 per equity share of INR 5 each. This is in addition to the interim dividend of INR 1 per share announced during the year. With this, the total dividend stands at INR 2.5 per equity share. That is 50% of the face value. Let me now share the financial highlights for Q4 of FY23. Revenue grew by 11% Y-o-Y to INR 1,826 crore, with exports contributing over 48% of the total revenue. EBITDA INR 250 crore, INR 250 crore for FY22, and profit after tax came in at INR 149 crore versus INR 145 crore for FY22.
Growth in revenue was on account of higher volume from expanded capacity for key products as well as greater contribution from value-added products. EBITDA performance was marginally impacted by maintenance shutdown at acid unit and toluene unit that resulted in higher cost by INR 10 crore. Also some volumes had been impacted due to the lower operating days. Products targeted at discretionary industries remain suppressed as indicated in the previous quarter. However, it is expected to start recovering progressively during financial year 2024. We witnessed some normalization in energy costs while raw material prices for key inputs had increased on a QoQ basis. As highlighted in the past, we have a robust pricing mechanism in place to mitigate the impact of such volatility, and the same is being passed on to the customers, thereby protecting absolute profitability. Our PAT performance was in line with the operational performance.
Depreciation stood higher on account of newer capacity added during the quarter. We had also factored in the one-time impact of write-back of previous periods' tax provision. A few matters under appeals were avoided in favor of the company. Moving on to the production details for Q4 FY23, production for nitrochlorobenzene stood at 18,842 metric tons, while the same for hydrogenation came in at 3,315 tons per month. For nitrotoluene, the production for Q4 FY23 stood at 6,130 metric tons. During the financial year 2023, we collectively entailed CapEx of over INR 1,300 crores towards growth initiative outlined earlier. We are targeting annual CapEx of around INR 1,500 crore for FY24 and FY25.
This would be deployed towards building several products and chemistry, including chlorotoluene and downstream, which is a complex chemistry being introduced in India for the first time. Hence, here we will benefit from both import substitution as well as export opportunities for global markets. As guided earlier, we expect the volume growth to be robust in FY 2024 and beyond. In FY 2024, we expect the volume growth to be around 25%. However, due to global economic situation, part of this might be sold to non-regular markets, hence the EBITDA growth in FY 2024 will be lower than the volume growth. I am excited with the upcoming opportunities in the chemical value chain and truly believe that this is a golden decade for us. We are incessantly working towards building scale for selecting high potential products and chemistries, supported by our fundamental strengths and expertise.
We are pioneer in introduction of several leading products and chemistries in India for global markets, and our endeavor is to continue doing that. We are optimist and confident of exhibiting a robust growth whereby enhancing value for all our stakeholders. Based on current business visibility, our EBITDA growth guidance for FY 2024 and FY 2025 remains unchanged at 25% CAGR. That concludes my thoughts and I will now request the moderator to open the forum for Q&A session. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. The first question is from the line of Rohit Nagraj from Centrum Broking. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. First question is, you have mentioned in the presentation and in your remarks that you have commercialized two specialty chemical complexes at Jagadia. Which industry these complexes will be catering to? Is it discretionary or non-discretionary? What kind of potential revenues and margins that we are expecting from this? Thank you.
This will be also their intermediates, going for, various end uses, including both agrochemicals as well as on, pigments and, additives. They are mostly intermediate, so directly we will not be able to connect to a top line.
Will these be for our internal consumption?
Part of that will be internal consumption.
Sure. Second question is in terms of the discretionary product portfolio. Is there any change which is witnessed from Q3 to Q4? We are one month in Q1, so how has been the progress over the last few months on the discretionary product portfolio? Thank you.
Globally there is a slowdown and because of the higher interest cost also there is inventory correction. It has impacted the demand. From customers we are hearing that, you know, progressively the demand will increase on a quarter on quarter basis for different product lines.
Sure. Thanks a lot. I'll come back in the queue. Best of luck.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Lokesh Mallya from SBI Funds Management. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening. My question is pertaining to the working capital and its funding. Can you please tell me what will be the total amount of bank CC lines, non-fund based lines, and how much would be the utilization level as on March 31st? A. B. What would be the total amount of debt that is maturing in each of the quarters of FY 2024, both long-term and short-term?
Yeah. The bank lines, including the non-fund based lines, would be upwards of INR 2,000 crores or INR 2,100 crores.
How much of that would be CC and, how much of that would be non-fund based? What would be the utilization?
The CC would be, I mean, in certain cases the lines are also fully fungible, so it will not be. I will not have a specific number because at certain banks it's a fully fungible line between fund based and non-fund based. We'll have to assume that, from an overall basis, it will be upwards somewhere between INR 1,800-INR 2,000 crore of the CC, based on the fungibility which is there.
The utilization of that would be in the range of around, INR 1,400-1,500 crores.
INR 1,400 crores-INR 1,500 crores out of INR 1,700 crores-INR 1,800 crores, if I heard you correctly?
Uh, e-eighteen hundred to two thousand crores.
Okay.
As regards the repayment obligations, the repayment for the year is expected is roughly around INR 350 crore. It will be evenly spread across three quarters.
Across all the four quarters equally.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Thank you, sir. I'll join the queue.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anil Shah from Birla Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yes.
Yeah. Okay. Now, my question is related to, you know, other expenses and your employee benefits. You know, while I understand your pricing mechanism kind of protects you from a gross profit or a, you know, a pass-through mechanism. You know, over the last few quarters, you've been mentioning that you'll have kind of built up your, you know, your employee cost, both technical and non-technical, you know, from a next link or a next growth phase perspective. As the top line starts growing and, you know, output starts increasing, we should start seeing these numbers, both other expenses and employee costs, as a % of sales to come down quite a bit. You know, we haven't seen that yet playing out. Could you just throw some color on that? That's my first question.
Second question is, you know, is there a number that you've given for FY 2024 in terms of EBITDA growth while you are maintaining, I believe, your FY 2025 guidance of INR 1,700 crore EBITDA? Is there a number for 2024 that you've given? Thank you.
Yeah. Chetan, you can give on the employee cost.
Yeah. Under employee cost and other expenses, there's a bit of an increase because of the new capacities which just came in the second half, that's one component on that. Secondly, on the employee cost, there's been an annual provision which happens because of the employee benefits such as gratuity and leaving cash payments and superannuation and those are there. There is a some expenses increase on the other expense includes certain costs related to the inland logistics on account of the volume increase, which has been there in the quarter. That has been the reasons for this. Sir, you want to address the other question, other part?
Yeah. Overall, you know, we expect the manufacturing fixed cost, which is the employee as well as other costs, should not increase much now in FY 2024 as well as FY 2025. I think that is what we had mentioned earlier also. Regarding on EBITDA guidance for FY 2024, we are looking at 25%, around 25% volume growth, but EBITDA growth will be lower because part of the volume will be going to the non-regular market. It will be lower than that, maybe around, you know, we can put number around 15%, but that more clarity will emerge as we go forward on EBITDA front.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vivek from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thank you sir. Just an extension of one of the questions that were asked earlier. Could you give a little bit more color in terms of the demand trends that you've been seeing in April and May, with respect to some of your key end markets and also with respect to your, you know, domestic and export segments? The second question was, you mentioned that you made sales to non-regular markets given the demand condition, and you also expect to do this in the next year as well. Could you just elaborate what exactly you mean by these non-regular markets? What could be the share of this in the overall mix? What is the margin differential between your regular markets? Thank you so much.
Yeah.
And-
The demand in domestic and export market, you know, is dependent on the segment by segment. The discretionary, you know, market demand is little bit slow still. You know, we have, you know, demand in the agro and the polymer markets is sustaining. As far as the non-regular markets are traditionally lower margin markets, which we where we can put the products. That's the market that we are capturing, largely China or this kind of market, where we are trying to push the product in case the demand is less from our traditional market, which can be Western market.
Vivek, do you have any further questions?
Just 2 clarifications. When you say non-regular markets, you mean more from a geographical perspective and less so from a segment, perspective. Would that be fair?
Yeah. That will be more on geographical. Yes. mm-hmm.
Got it, sir. Any color on the margin differential between these non-regular markets and regular markets?
It can be now around, you know, 10%-15% margin difference. Sure, sir. Thank you so much. I'll rejoin with you. All the very best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rohan Gupta from Nuvama. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Good evening, and thanks for the opportunity. Sir, question is on basically our agrochemical portfolio. If you can quantify that, how much of our portfolio is catering to the products which are generics, I mean, final products are generics, and how much will be probably under the patented products. The question is also coming, many generic agrochemical players globally have given a warning about the huge inventory-led losses and increasing competition from China that is impacting the global market. Are we catering to end customers who are in a patented product or in generic, and what is the portfolio split? Are you also witnessing some this kind of pressure in your agrochemical basket as well?
Yeah. We're not having a exact bifurcation between the patented and generic, as we have both, but still I think overall, generic will be majority in the value from on overall agrochemical basket. As I mentioned even in the last call, this agrochemical demand slowed down because mainly because of inventory correction by because of high finance costs. It is more also on product specific. Also some of the products that we are seeing that kind of demand slow down, but it is not, you know, across the board for all the products.
Even in our portfolio also some of the agrochemical intermediates, the demand we see that is getting impacted.
Yes. Yes. Yeah.
Okay. Sir, if we impose this challenge in FY 2024, we are still struggling from the recovery in the consumption-led sectors like textiles, like paints, pigments and all. Agrochemicals may pose some challenges in the current scenario. Do we see that FY 2024, I mean, or what will be the driving this growth if all these sectors are facing the headwind side now?
We'll be able to increase our overall volumes. I think volumes will drive the growth.
sir, end user industry demands across our segment still remains weak.
some places, we should be able to pick up the market share. I think, where there is some-
Okay. Okay.
import substitutions are there or where customers want to this, diversify, some extra market share will be picked up.
irrespective of demand challenges, we are confident that even from the market share gain we will be able to grow in FY 2024 as well as in 2025.
Yes. Yes.
Sir, second question is on this raw material prices have started falling, including energy costs globally and also in oil-based derivatives. We have seen that in last couple of years with the energy crisis going up continuously in Europe, there were many customers in Europe also was looking an alternative for the domestic manufacturers. Do we see that the trend is reversing now with the Europe witnessing the energy cost normalization also across the raw material prices have started softening. Do you see that any trend reversal has started happening? Or still we see that even the competitive cost structure which Europe has earlier enjoyed because of low gas is over now and the opportunities are there for the country like India?
Yeah. Basically what will happen is that in the future, this energy intensive products, there will be less increase in manufacturing in Europe, because in general there will be a fear of, you know, higher energy cost in Europe. As far as the existing manufacturing facility in Europe, I think, definitely because of this decrease in energy prices in Europe will benefit them. On a long-term basis, you know, the energy intensive product growth in Europe will be curtailed.
Oh, thank you, sir. I'll come back to you for the follow-up question.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aditya Ketan from Smith Institution. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, first question was on the CapEx side. Sir, we had given a guidance of INR 1,500 crore. I believe, sir, during the last quarter and even during the plant visit, we were given a guidance of around INR 1,200 crore CapEx. There's an upward revision of CapEx which we have done now.
We will be also doing this in our zone 4 also. Combined guidance we have been having for FY 2024 and FY 2025 about INR 3,000 crores.
Okay. This has been like, because earlier we were giving a guidance of around INR 2,500 crore CapEx for the next 2 years. Now we have given a guidance of INR 3,000 crores.
No. Even last con call also we had given INR 3,000 only.
Okay. Thank you. Sir, in any of the basket of Aarti Industries on the portfolio side, are we witnessing any sort of increased competition from China? Because there has been huge dumping which is happening from China right now. In many basket of commodity and specialty chemicals. Are we witnessing pain in any of the portfolio in any of the product side and there has been like increased competition and we had lost any sort of market share?
No, I think, that because of the general slowdown that, impact was there, but we are not seeing any increase, in that, currently.
Okay. We have maintained our market share. Despite like if there is an increase of competition.
Yes. Yes.
Okay. Sir, just one more question onto the non-regulated market. As you had said that so these markets are generally having lower margins. How much share or you can say how much % would this be contributing to our overall basket?
generally, you know, whenever, you know, we are not able to put in regular market, we try to go into an non-regular market. Percentage will not be able to... It will be more on a product to product and also over a time to time. It will be maybe around 5-10%.
5, 10% of your total, you're talking of?
Yes.
Okay. Okay. Sir, just one last question. Sir, onto the NCB side. When will this expansion get commercialized?
It will get commercialized in Q1 of this FY 2024.
Okay. Volumes will start from Q2?
Yes. Yes.
Oh, good. Thank you, sir. That's it.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Abhijit Akella from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a few clarifications. One is with regard to the specialty chemical blocks, the two of them that have been commissioned. You know, is this part of the INR 607 crore of CapEx in the downstream and specialty chemicals that we had disclosed in our presentation at the, you know, plant visit? I was under the impression that these would be revenue generating. Is that not the case? If you could please just help us with how much, you know, CapEx has been invested in these two blocks and, how will those contribute in terms of either revenues or margin expansion for us?
Yeah, that'll be around, you know, INR 300 crore, out of that. Partly it will be for captive and partly it will be for outside sales. Exact number on the sales I will not have on that.
I mean, in terms of, say, EBITDA or EBIT, you know, rather the payback period on this CapEx, would there be a rough number you could share with us?
Yeah. This should be in around, you know, 25%-30% EBITDA range.
These are backward integrations for our existing intermediates, is it? I don't believe we make active ingredients at this point, right?
No. Actually, this will be one of the product on this our chlorobenzene chain, the 2,5-dichloronitrobenzene. It will increase the capacity and it will open up, free up our current nitration capacities in our location, which will be then used for other products. That is what is one of the say it's block. There will be a shift. We'll be able to add new products in other line and this 2,5-dichloronitrobenzene capacity will get expanded in this line.
Okay. Okay. second one, just on the non-traditional markets where you mentioned that these are at 10-15% lower margins. just wanted to understand it clearly that suppose in our traditional markets we are making, say, 15-18% EBITDA margins. In the non-traditional, are we sort of indicating that it'll be 10 points lower, like, say, you know, 5-8%? Is that the range or am I getting it wrong?
Yeah. Yeah. This is to see on the gross margin, the price realization on that product lower in that range.
Okay. It's 10, 15 percentage points.
Yes.
On the OpEx numbers, sorry, the employee cost and the other expense numbers for the quarter, you know, adjusting for this maintenance shutdown, is this a reasonable run rate to sort of trend off for the rest of FY24 now?
Yeah, I think, that should be the run rate. Maybe little lower than that.
Okay. Okay. Lastly, for Chittanbhai, just the tax rate guidance for next year, you know, would there be any change given the low tax rate we have had in the past year?
I would assume the tax rates to be around 15%-17% kind of thing for next year as well.
Fine. Sorry, just one other last thing. I missed the volume numbers that were shared on the call earlier. If you would be so kind as to share them one more time. Thank you so much.
Yeah. NCB was, I mean, nitrochlorobenzene was.
Just one second. INR 18,800.
Yeah. 18,840 tons. Hydrogenation for the quarter. Hydrogenation was 3,315 tons per month. Nitrotoluene for the quarter was 6,130 tons.
Thank you so much. All the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rohit Sinha from Sunidhi Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello. Thank you for taking my question, sir. One thing, just, I wanted to know your thoughts on how the inventory situation right now is shaping up. What you are hearing from your customers and, overall, what the outlook would be for Q1 and Q2, as we are hearing two different views from other companies that, for some it's the situation getting normalized and some are still saying that it will take another maybe one quarter. How you are seeing this situation?
Yeah. Currently, at least, Q1, definitely there is pressure on because of the inventories. As we mentioned, you know, it will be a progressively, I think, the situation will improve on quarter-on-quarter.
Okay. Okay. It is across your agro and polymer both side, or is there any uniqueness there?
Yeah, both side, basically.
Okay. Okay. Secondly, on the raw material side, as we are talking about that, crude has corrected in the recent time. If we look at the benzene prices, it has been slightly on the higher side as compared to crude. I believe, the increased demand and a bit of demand supply shortage would likely to keep benzene prices on the higher side going forward as well. How we should see this, for us, going forward?
As we know, we have a benzene, normally the benzene pass through. This benzene price variation, generally will not have any impact, as such.
Okay. That's it from my side. I'll come back if needed. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chetan Thakkar from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. First, just a clarification to Abhijit's question. You mentioned that the quarterly OP run rate will be similar to what we witnessed in Q4. Before that you highlighted that there will still be 15% OP growth. How do both of these tie up?
Hmm. 15%?
For FY 2024, you mentioned volume growth can be 25%,
Mm-hmm.
While OP could be lower, still a 15% OP growth number for 2024.
Operating profit.
Why that dip?
No, I think you mentioned the expenses, not the profit.
Profit, sir. Our exit operating profit is lower.
Oh, okay. Mm-hmm. No, no. I thought this Abhijit's ask was more on the expensive side as a run rate.
Okay. Got it.
Yeah. Yeah.
Second is more on the cash flow side. If you look at the CapEx that you're doing and the cash that can be generated, so fair to assume you'll still be adding on to debt over the next two years?
Yeah. I think there'll be additional debt. This CapEx will be partially funded by internal accruals and partially by net keep.
Okay, sir. Sure, sir. That's about it. Thank you so much. All the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Siddharth Karekar from Equirus. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. We have mentioned that we are looking at 15% EBITDA growth for FY 2024, which broadly implies we are looking at roughly 40% kind of EBITDA growth for FY 2025. Can you just give a brief color on what will drive this EBITDA growth in FY 2025? What kind of volume growth are we looking in FY 2025 for this kind of EBITDA growth?
We expect to know that whatever, some volume which will go to a non-regular market in FY 2024, that should get corrected by FY 2025. That will be one driver, you know, which will be for, you know, additional EBITDA coming out of that. Over and above this 25, another 15-20% volume growth, which we'll be looking at in FY 2025.
Okay. Got it. Secondly, in terms of now, given that we are speaking in terms of volumes, can we just get a broad color at how has been the volume growth for FY 23?
FY23 number, Chetan, you have?
Yeah. In FY23, the volume growth is upwards of 15%.
Even this year we have switched something to the non-regulated market, looking at our EBITDA numbers for the last two, three quarters.
especially the Q4 part of the material were to be sold to non-regular market.
Okay, sir. Got it. Thank you.
Siddharth, are you done with your questions?
Oh, yes.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Tiwari from Yes Securities. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. My question was related to the volume growth that we spoke about in FY 2024 and 2025. If you could please be kind enough to highlight the capacities, which would be adding to these, the growth in volumes, which we have recently commissioned over 2023 and perhaps we'll be commissioning over 2024. If you can just enlist those capacities which will be coming up or which have already come and will be contributing to this volume growth.
Yes, in FY 2024, we have a nitrochlorobenzene plant expansion will be completed and some other specialty chemical blockIn end of FY 2024 and early FY 2025, our acid division capacity will be expanded by around 22%. Our ethylation plant tripling of capacities will happen in FY 2025. Nitro toluene debottlenecking also will happen in FY 2025. These are the expansion which will come up in FY 2024 and FY 2025. What has been commission in this FY 2022 and FY 2023, so that further ramp up in those facility, which will drive the growth for FY 2024 and 2025.
Understood. Lastly, just confirming that our guidance of INR 1,700 crore for FY25 at operating level, that guidance is maintained, right? There's no change in that guide.
Yes.
Okay. Thank you. That's all from my end.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Tim Basanitz from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, sorry. This is Ritesh from Morgan Stanley Investment Management. I was just looking at the numbers that you guided for and then was trying to back calculate. When you say 25% volume growth, you say that, let's say, the incremental volumes all go into a business which probably is at a 10% lower gross margin. Let's say 40% is a blended gross margin. Let's say 25, you know, in addition INR 25 of volume effectively grows at 30%, it implies INR 8 fall through to EBITDA. Your EBITDA margins are hardly, let's say, 18%-19%.
Eight rupees is extra on INR 18 EBITDA margin you pay, which still implies a, you know, assuming your employee costs and other expenses are flat, still implies a 50% growth in your EBITDA. I'm just trying to see where is What am I missing in terms of your guidance on volume and then the EBITDA growth delta. You also said that OpEx will be flat. Either OpEx will not be flat. Either your volume growth rate has to translate into similar EBITDA growth from that.
I think OpEx, actually I do not have a direct Q4 number, so exactly how much was the OpEx in Q4. Overall, we are not looking much increase in OpEx in FY 2024 and 2025 on an annualized basis. Not much significant increase in OpEx. Another thing is the entire 25% is not going to go in a regular this non-regular market.
No, sir. I'm saying even if I assume everything's moving to non-regular market, it still implies, let's say, if there was INR 100 rupees of volume you're doing, if you are doing INR 125 rupees of volume next year, and it's a 30% gross margin business, you still make INR 8 rupee extra gross margin. You had about INR 18 rupees of EBITDA. If that INR 8 rupees completely falls into your EBITDA of INR 18 rupees, it still implies more than 40% growth. I'm just trying to understand where the math is failing.
You'll have to connect with Chetan separately on that. I think that would be a better idea. Yeah.
Okay. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Surya Patra from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for this opportunity, sir. I missed the opening portion of the call, sir, so there could be repetition. sir, in fact, I wanted to know, let's say, considering the multi-year supply pack, what is the cumulative revenue that we have, we would have booked in FY23?
For the multi-year contract or the long-term contract?
Yeah. All three long-term contract put together. You are not sharing individually, but at least, all three put together.
I would not have that number readily with me. I will separately share it out.
Okay. My next, basic reason for that question was that I was trying to understand here, when you are saying, say, 25% kind of a volume growth for FY 2024, then what portion of that growth is coming from the ramp-up in these three contracts? And excluding of this, what is the kind of volume growth that we are building for our base business?
Yeah. The base business also, this contract three was just commission in.
Correct.
Q3 of this year.
Yeah.
virtually not any significant volume coming from Q contract three. That everything will go into a growth part, sir. Contract two is more of a flattish, whereas contract one, you know, we are around, you know, 20% utilization, that may go to, you know, maybe 30%-50% utilization.
Okay.
Our other volume growth will come both in nitrochlorobenzene and nitrotoluene side also, and on chlorobenzene side also. All those which are not connected to the contracts, all of that, you know, and the downstream will see a volume growth.
When we are saying, say, nitrotoluene, large part of the nitrotoluene led growth is expected to come in 2025, right? I mean, FY25, right?
No, that is for the expansion, but the current year, you know, our annual production in nitrotoluene on an annualized basis was lower. We expect that on a annualized numbers to be higher next year.
Okay. may I know, the cumulative, revenue potential of all these three long-term contract is INR 1,000 crore per annum, right? on a optimal.
Yeah.
By FY25, let's say, what is the kind of utilization level that we are anticipating out of this INR 1,000 crore, sir?
We mentioned the contract, one is, you know, is basically that is where, you know, originally we are thinking we'll move towards 70% or so. That is still.
Right.
on a more, on a lower side.
Okay.
Contract, third contract, you know, we should be reaching about 60%-70% of that utilization in FY25.
Okay.
Second contract is more of a flattish kind of a thing.
Okay. That means, for second contract, are we saying, sir, it will still be having a kind of 50%-60% kind of inflation only till 2025?
That is not much linked to our returns are not much linked to the actual utilization.
way. Yes. Okay, fine. Second question is on, let's say, on the margin expectation for 2024. Here I'm just trying to see that the quarterly performance also, let's say. There is no, I mean, so the gross margin front, so there is no issue that what we are finding, but it is the elevated cost. That is what is dragging down the margin performance. Going ahead, let's say, if we see some moderation in the cost, overall cost, and that way even the revenues are also likely to come down accordingly. Then percentage-wise, the OpEx that is likely to remain elevated only.
Given that understanding and, there is no greater change that we should see in the gross margin, so then, the margins are likely to remain suppressed only even for FY 2024. Is my understanding right, sir?
Basically there'll be a volume growth and, as the volume growth, but part of that is what we are saying that it will not go to rate, it will go to non-regulated also. The entire benefit of volume growth will not come. That's why the EBITDA growth will be lower. That is the broad thing. On an OpEx basis, exactly, I think we'll have to see.
Okay.
Yeah.
Okay. Just last one, sir. See this, the shutdown what we have taken in the fourth quarter, it is the specific period, I mean, it is annual shutdown and that happens in the fourth quarter always or how is it, sir? For both the unit.
Acid division is down.
Yes.
Our this decision was more of an opportunistic, it's not a annual shutdown. We had to do a lot of asset maintenance and revamp. For that we had taken.
Okay. Just last one, sir. This MEA expansion, the ethylation one. We are multiplying the capacity. We have already utilized a means of the current capacity, we have already utilized majority of it. When we are talking about the full utilization of the expanded unit, why are we saying FY 2025 is the period when the money will be really realized or business will be really realized out of that expansion? Because the entire 1 year is there and we have been seeing a kind of good progress on the MEA side. Anything that you are finding any difficulty in ramping it up or anything, sir?
No, it will get be commissioned in FY 25, no?
Okay.
This, the expansion, we're going to get commission in FY 2025.
Okay. there's no such-
That's why there will not be any increase in volume in FY 24 coming out of that plant, like, that expansion.
Okay. Okay. Sure. Okay. These are the questions, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Dhruv Mucchal from HDFC Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Yeah, sir. Thank you so much. You commented earlier that there is, you see excess inventory in the system. I'm just trying to clarify, is it the products where that you manufacture or the products if the final products where your products go? Where are you seeing the excess inventory or is it they are the both ends?
Actually it goes from the ultimate customer and that back end entire supply chain. Because of this high interest costs and all and now people are trying to, you know, reduce the inventory in the supply chain. It is coming more from the customer side back end.
Okay. Their products are facing excess inventory which is causing an impact for your products demand.
Correct. Correct. Yeah.
I'm just trying to understand, it's not at the both ends? I mean, it's not that your products are also facing excess inventory and the final products are also facing excess inventory?
No, both are actually connected in a chain, no. Because their side the inventory is built up, so they are, they want to postpone for few, different customer for, you know, different weeks or months, they want to postpone the purchase. That's how they were trying to reduce their inventory.
Okay. Sir, when you're guiding for this 15% upwards of approximately 15%, as you mentioned, on 25% volume growth, are you also building in the benefit that you will get because the OpEx is likely to reduce? Last year we had high coal costs, high freight cost, everything, which has normalized significantly. Does your guidance and 50% of your products... 50% of business is exported, I believe you would have got impacted there. Does your guidance factor in that benefit that you will get because of the reduction in cost?
Yes. Generally, those are also direct costs, coal and freight cost. A substantial portion of that gets passed on to the customer.
Okay.
Part of the benefit remains. That part benefit we are counting. Generally, you know, even whatever the huge increase in ocean freight took place in FY21 or FY22, we had to pass on. We cannot bear those kind of costs.
I see.
Yes, yes. Yeah.
lastly, when you mentioned that there is a margin difference of about 10-15% in the non-regular market versus the regular market, this is at the EBITDA level or the gross profit level? Contribution level.
Gross profit level, yeah.
Gross profit. Okay, got it. Perfect, sir. Thank you so much, and all the best. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Poojan Shah from Congress Advisors. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. First of all, my question would be on the, as we have pre-presented, we are showing a growth strategy, and we are saying that we are doing something developing in battery chemicals, electronics, chemicals and new edge. Can you just give a broad way what are the types of products, how the market share is evolving, and, when we have been ramping up all this capacity and revenue stream will be coming on, like, in which year specific?
Our existing product line, all this expansion, will get over in FY 2024, except the utilization and that volumes will come up. The new one at our zone 4, chlorotoluene and multipurpose plants, that commissioning will start from FY 2025, and the major volume growth from that will come from FY 2026 onwards.
What are the market, like, how is the market evolving and what are you seeing on that part? Like, Is the demand will be favorable for the, our company and compared to global competitors like China and X, Y, Z?
The product line, what we are putting up there, basically, they are in general, growing, globally, between 3% to 7%, 8% growth rate.
Any ballpark estimation, market, sizing, any idea, like if you can give to?
The chlorotoluene, what plant we are putting, you know, the capacity for us will be around 20% of the global capacity.
Okay, got it. Got it. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ajit Manakar from Ashika Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity, sir. My question is that, what asset turnover you are expecting in FY 2025 and beyond, post ramping of the capacities?
Asset turnover generally will all depend on the benzene and toluene, prices. Direct asset turnover will be more towards still, I would say around 1.5 kind of thing on a gross block level.
Okay. Thank you. That's all for now.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aditya Khetan from Smiths Institution. Please go ahead.
Sir, thank you for the opportunity. Sir, first was onto the PDA volume. Sir, we have not shared that volumes into our opening round. Secondly, sir, what would be the breakup of exports and domestic for FY23?
The PDA volume for the quarter is 340 tons per month. FY 23 exports was roughly around 48%. Domestic is 52%.
Okay. Just a question onto your working capital. In this FY23, we had witnessed that the cash conversion cycle has been almost 110 days. I think this number is close to 2016-2017 level. Working capital has been drastically went down in FY. Is there any particular reason, like there has been sharp dip into your into the receivables and also into inventory days also? Any particular reason you foresee and what would be the rate which we can take for the next few years?
On the receivables, certain product profile, the product mix change has moved to a bit of a product where the working capital, the receivable credits are lower than what used to be historic. That product mix change is benefiting on the receivables front. Plus, on account of demerger, historically, the pharma business had a bit of a higher working capital, both on the inventory as well as on the receivable, which, posture to the demerger, got reduced from the Aarti's number. That is where you are able to see the decline on working capital as well.
Okay, got it. Just one more question onto our first long-term contract, so terminated contract. Currently, I believe it is operating at around 20%-25% utilization. Gogri sir has mentioned that it would be at around 70% by FY25. Just want to know, the intermediate, what is used to make this dicamba, 2,5-DCNB, that currently, what is the utilization level?
No, that was utilized at 100% and now the new plant will come up. There the further ramp-up will happen.
Okay. DCNB, we are operating at around 100% level you mentioned.
Yeah. We are making it at another location and now, you know, it will be starting in Jagadia and other location nitrogen facility will get freed up.
Okay. The 70% utilization, for the next 2 years there would be like... This business would grow at a much faster rate with first long-term one.
Yeah. That is, this is still, you know, on, next year FY 2024 it is 30-50, and then we see that how it can be further ramped up.
Okay. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to management for closing comments.
Yeah. Thank you everyone for taking out the time to join us on our Q4 and FY23 earnings conference call. Hope we have addressed all your queries. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact our investor relations team and we'll address them. Stay safe, and we look forward to connecting with all of you again in the next quarter. Thank you once again.
Thank you. On behalf of Aarti Industries Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.