Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. You are connected to Marico Limited's Conference Call. Please stay connected, this conference will begin shortly. We thank you for your patience. Participants, good evening, and welcome to the Marico Limited Q3 FY26 earnings conference call. Please stay connected, this conference will begin shortly. We thank you for your patience. Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Marico Limited's Q3 FY26 earnings conference call. We have with us the senior management of Marico, represented by Mr. Sougata Gupta, MD and CEO, and Mr. Pawan Agrawal, Group CFO and CEO, International Business. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touchtone phone.
Please note that this conference is being recorded. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that the Q&A session is only for institutional investors and analysts, and therefore, if anybody else who is not an institutional investor or analyst but would like to ask questions, please directly reach out to Marico's investor relations team. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sougata Gupta. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yeah. Hi, good evening to all those who have joined the call. I would like to begin with a brief overview of the operating environment during the quarter, after which I will take you through our performance and strategic objectives going forward. Our demand conditions during the quarter remained stable. We continued to see the building blocks for a gradual recovery in consumption, supported by moderating inflation, improved affordability following the recent GST rate rationalization, which has been transformative, higher MSPs, and a healthy crop sowing season. We believe these factors provide a constructive backdrop for demand improvement across both urban and rural markets in the coming quarters. Moving on to our quarterly performance, the India business demonstrated a sequential improvement in volume growth despite an elevated pricing environment, which started tapering off towards the end of the quarter.
Revenue momentum remained strong, aided by calibrated pricing actions across core portfolios over the last 12 months in response to the rise in input costs. Our franchises have continued to record strong offtakes, with more than 95% of the business gaining or sustaining market share and about 80% gaining or sustaining penetration on a MAT basis. Among channels, while e-commerce and quick commerce were leading growth drivers, we saw a clear improvement in traditional trade, marking the outcome of consistent investments and targeted actions over the last 2 years. Project SETU has continued to strengthen our distribution fundamentals, execution capabilities, and the coverage expansion remains firmly on track, led by deeper presence in upgraded towns and pan-India rural scale-up. We will now commence our initiatives on targeted expansion in urban channels, such as chemist, cosmetic, and specialty food outlets.
These actions are enhancing our direct reach, improving product assortment and availability in rural, and will subsequently accelerate our premiumization and diversification energy and general trade in the top towns. Delving deeper into the India business, I'll now share the performance of our key categories. Continue to demonstrate inherent brand strength despite prevailing consumer prices, underlying volume growth after adjusting for MRP reduction remained positive, demonstrating remarkable price elasticity and deep consumer trust and loyalty. With correction having set in and copra prices down by around 25%-30% from peak levels, the brand will be passing on the benefit to the consumer in the coming months, as and when we believe it's the right time to do it. While we expect near-term performance to remain stable, easing absolute consumer prices will support a gradual recovery in volume growth over the course of the next year.
Value-added hair oils delivered another strong quarter with accelerated market share gains. Our value share on MAT basis stands at an all-time high of nearly 30%, showing considerably, considerable progress towards premiumization of the mix and bridging the gap between volume and value share, along with our intended lines and long-term aspirations. We remain confident of sustaining a double-digit growth trajectory in the near to medium term, supported by sharp strategic focus on the mid and premium segments, consistent innovation across channels, enhanced direct reach through Project SETU, and structural tailwinds from the recent GST rate rationalization, which has driven affordability. Saffola edible oil had a soft quarter in a negative elevated pricing environment, with revenue growth moderating as prior, prior pricing actions largely anniversarized in this quarter. Like in the previous quarter, we have sacrificed volumes which are below our threshold margins across certain packs and channels.
Going forward, the brand will continue to sharpen its premiumization agenda, led by Saffola Gold and total variants, and the recently introduced cold-pressed oil, which is doing quite well. Backed by strong equity and focused consumer activations, we expect Saffola to chart an improving volume growth trajectory in the coming quarters. The foods portfolio performed broadly in line with the stated expectations, as we had talked about in the last call, that we will take a pause on our growth as we rectify some of the, the portfolio which is not delivering high on profitability. So Saffola has continued to gain market share and consolidate market leadership. As we had conveyed earlier, with the portfolio rapidly scaling up to ARR of INR 1,000 crore, our focus has been on stabilization, strengthening profitability towards building a sustainable, profitable growth engine.
We remain very bullish on value-added foods and nutra opportunity India, and our strategy to invest in fewer, bigger, better plays in terms of our portfolio approach. That being said, we are confident of resuming the accelerated growth trajectory in our organic food business over the next two quarters. We also announced the strategic investment in one of India's leading premium gourmet snacking brands, 4700BC. This is renowned for its popcorn and also offers a range of innovative snack offerings such as Pop Chips , makhana, crunchy corn, and a recently launched nachos with avocado oil. We'd like to share our perspective on this investment.
When you look at our foods portfolio today, among Saffola, which stands for healthy foods, playing in the mass food segment, True Elements, which stands for the clean label, premium breakfast cereals, nuts and seeds, and snacking segment, and Plix, which does nutraceuticals, there was a gap in our portfolio of our premium gourmet snack, which is better for you and can deliver a mix of offerings for all occasions. I'm particularly excited about how the better-for-you gourmet snacking brands are becoming a choice for the consumer, who want taste and differentiated flavors as a part of their routine. We believe 4700BC is an underleveraged and an underinvested brand that can, if afforded the required investment and our overall capabilities, including cost, channel, GTM, and with a strong new product pipeline ahead, it will continue to push boundaries in the premium gourmet snacking arena.
Together, we will tap the opportunity to leverage our existing scale in foods and drive synergies and broaden the brand's presence across channels. It is clocking at about INR 140 crores ARR. In the last three months, we see tremendous potential for the brand to scale its ARR to 3x in the next three years. In premium personal care, the portfolio comprising serums, male grooming, and skincare grew in double digits and is expected to exit the year at an ARR of INR 350+ crores. In addition, the digital-first portfolio is expected to exit FY 2026 with an ARR of INR 1,000+ crores. We are on track to reach 2.5x of FY 2024 ARR next year, and we are making concerted efforts to move to double-digit EBITDA in the digital-first portfolio by end of FY 2027.
Moving on, the international business continued to deliver robust and broad-based growth. Bangladesh led from the front, supported by a steady core business and a scale-up of new franchises like shampoos. Vietnam and South Africa bounced back to deliver double-digit constant currency growth, driven by targeted initiatives. MENA continued to deliver strong performance in key franchises across both the Gulf region and Egypt.... The NCD business also delivered accelerated growth. Overall, the international business is now exhibiting a virtuous growth flywheel, and we expect this momentum to sustain across markets over the medium term. To sum up, we delivered a strong and resilient performance in Q3, with both the India international businesses progressing well in a steady operating environment. We will remain sharply focused on execution, strengthening our franchises and driving sustainable volume-led growth.
In India, we expect to drive improved trajectory in the core portfolio while driving the profitable scale-up of foods and digital-first businesses. We aim to sustain the volume growth momentum even as pricing growth is likely to moderate over the course of the next few quarters, with input cost easing and margin pressure subsiding. We expect progressive improvement in operating profit growth rates over the coming quarters. As we look ahead, we are moving from stability to purposeful acceleration, leveraging a resilient operating model and a disciplined cost architecture. Our priorities are clear: sharp portfolio choices, enabling faster decision-making and driving agile execution. Importantly, our agility has enabled us to take targeted initiatives and successfully turn around portfolios within just a few quarters. This is exhibited by the turnaround of Vaho in India and more recently, the quick recovery in Vietnam and South Africa businesses.
What gives us confidence as we move forward is that this acceleration is grounded in strong fundamentals and a high degree of accountability in the senior management. This balance of resilience and execution discipline, coupled with the tremendous leadership depth which we have developed over the past few years, has well-positioned us to sustain momentum and further accelerate the growth flywheel we have built. With that, I conclude my remarks. Thank you, and we can now take some questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to please use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from the line of Abneesh Roy from Nuvama. Please go ahead.
Thanks. My first question is on the new acquisition. So, my questions here are, if you want to take it 3x in three years, if you could talk about what all are needed apart from the brand support. So in terms of distribution, for example, where is the company now? For example, INR 140 crore ARR. How much is coming from which kind of distribution channel, and where do you see the delta? Second is from a pricing. Obviously, this is gourmet, so it's premium. Would you plan to have some kind of a offering, which also appeals to the smaller box GT? I do understand the larger box GT will have an audience, but the small box GT, is there a pricing or positioning which is possible?
And if you could also talk about profitability. I do understand initially investment will be needed, and it's unfair to look at first-year profitability for a brand which anyway may not be making profit. But from a three-year perspective, what will be the expectation on the profitability?
Okay, I think, first of all, I would urge you to look at two interesting brands globally, which started off with popcorn and has diversified and has become reasonably blockbuster brands. One is called LesserEvil in U.S., and the other brand is called Proper, which is a U.K.-based brand. And I'm sure we will follow their trajectories and getting inspired from these brands. And there's another big trend in U.S., there's a brand called SkinnyPop, which is growing, again, which is a popcorn and better-for-you brand. Now, that will give you an idea of what is possible in terms of the portfolio. Now, if I look at the overall, broad sense of the portfolio of, this, you know, this brand, 4700BC, PVR Cinemas is very low. It's just around, just about double digits.
There's a big institutional business and exports, but they are very, very good because, as you know, these, these institutional business creates very good sampling opportunities. At the same time, it also ensures that there's no marketing cost of doing so. So 4700BC is available in the following airlines. It's available in all business class lounges of Etihad. It's available in Qatar, Cathay Pacific, in first and business class of Air India. Most recently in some of the European routes of IndiGo, which is, it goes to Amsterdam, Manchester, and just recently, last week to Athens. It's available in Vande Bharat. It's available in one or two hotels. And that business, plus we have a very good business in... Just started that business in the Middle East. We believe there's significant opportunity now with the Marico access to the e-commerce and the other channels.
So that's around 20%-25%. The rest is all online, very little retail. So we believe that modern trade, for example, where Marico can give access and also the top-end food is the best route to grow. If you look at the trajectory of some of the brands, you know, let's take iD, Veeba, Epigamia, they now have significant part of their business in retail, and that business is missing. I think in terms of investments, we are happy to do, and at the same time, you must realize today we already have some digital brands like True Elements. There'll be huge opportunities in shared costs and other things when they come into the Marico fold. So therefore, this will all happen incrementally--there will be no incremental investment to expand into GT.
So that takes care, and therefore, I believe it makes maybe 10 crores , 12 crores. Last year, it had made a loss. This +2 elements with together can now have an accelerated path to breaking even, with all the tapping of the synergies. There is a strong innovation pipeline with this brand, and I think we will unfold. And if you really look at it, Indians, while they love healthy products, they don't compromise on taste. The perhaps the indulgence gourmet, this one is going to grow. As people habits in terms of binge-watching OTT and other things like Friday night in, you know, those, those things which I've seen, which you see in developed markets, this progress, the tailwinds towards adoption of this brand is very high, and therefore, this was a missing link in our entire foods portfolio.
If you look at it, Saffola plays in mass stage health, True Elements in clean, you know, premium seeds and breakfast and snacking. So this was a gap out there, and it's a perfect gap, and I believe, we also believe we love the founders who have a mindset of build to last rather than build to sell. We are extremely confident about scaling this brand up, and it's a brand, you know, we all love. It's a very, you know, the products are very nice, and we are very, very optimistic about growing this brand.
Just to add on the profitability, Abneesh, the brand has gross, gross contribution and CM2, which is ahead of Marico's food business at this point in time. And it's a premium brand, which has significant pricing power. So therefore, of course, we can also expect that the margins can go, you know, even higher in the future. And there are significant synergies in the back-end cost and GTM, which will be leveraged in the near term and unlock synergies. So overall, from a profitability context, of course, we'll be investing at this point in time, but whether the brand has path to profitability to reach, let's say, double-digit margin over a period of time, we are fairly confident it can really go there.
Sir, one or two follow-ups there. So one is, Saugata, you always mention Marico, and you obviously want to take bigger bets. Now, this is around 1% of your revenue, so does it fit that? Not everything needs to fit. So that was one question. Second is, your example of the LesserEvil brand, for example. Those need a different mindset, and you did say the founders, et cetera. So I wanted to understand, does this signal that now you want to play in the gourmet, in the impulse category much more over a longer term? Because this is completely new white space you have opened up. Till now, Saffola or the other brands have been mostly in the health space.
This opens up the impulse and the gourmet. Obviously, this is too small. So I wanted to understand, does this open up much bigger opportunity on your own or, say, even M&A-wise, in the longer term?
So I think our digital business entire philosophy is think big, start small, scale up fast or drop fast. And therefore, it's a string of pearls strategy to do something big. We are another, maybe two years from now, we have a INR 2,500 crore+ digital business, which is bigger than some of the multinationals companies who have stayed in India for 20 years , 25 years. So I think it is big. I think the digital business and the entire diversification agenda has been big. There are steps to that bigness rather than doing one thing. We will obviously have done big things. I think our VAHO turnaround is a big thing. We will see... And I think there are opportunities in organically growing big things. Digital Plix, actually, is, you know, we took it at INR 150 crore.
It should be hitting INR 1,000 crore. Again, so we have done this. The question is, I don't believe in buying something big and paying 6x for that. That's something which, we don't want to do. We are far more prudent. We want the founders to have the skin in the game, grow with us, and we learn the business from them. So I think the question is, we have started small, but there is no reason we develop and bigness together rather than buying something big and then not growing it.
And just for the context, Abneesh, we diversified portfolio a couple of years ago, was just about 11%-12%, and we have taken a target of reaching about 25%. We've already reached about 22%. So it's not about the size of the business when you acquire, it's all about the potential that we assess it can become. For example, Saugata talked about, Plix. Similarly, we are very hopeful that all these businesses will grow bigger over a period of time.
I think to answer your second question, Abneesh, you are absolutely right. I believe that with True Elements plus Saffola, we found that, you know, snacking, if I really want to grow snacking, it could become restrictive, and therefore we opened up. Having said that, we will continue to play in the premium end, which is organized trade plus maybe metro food outlets. I don't think we have a right to win today in a pan plus or doing a INR 5, INR 10 product right now. We don't have the GTM, neither the capability. But it at least opens up as India progresses and, you know, the premium set opens up, I believe there's enough critical mass. You are right, I think, this actually significantly improves the TAM expansion for our food business.
Sure. My second and last question is on hair oil. So overall excitement in the hair oil is coming back in the minds of investors. We have seen the small hair oil company with the new CEO doing well. They have also called out hair oil as a category, is seeing a somewhat of a revival. You have done exceedingly well past few quarters in VAHO . So my question is, as a, as a category in hair oil, how do you see next one year? Last few quarters has been good for VAHO . And second, adjacent question is, yes, volume growth is still quite strong for Marico as a company, but when Parachute starts seeing deflation, and we have seen already 20%-25% deflation in copra from top, and next drop is also looking decent.
As a company, would you see that challenge that suddenly the sales growth for the company in India business becomes a challenge at some stage? What will be your take on that?
I think, see, there are two things. One is, this time the absolute inflation was very high, okay, which actually impacted volume growth, and we had done some of the MRP reduction, which anniversaries in the first quarter next year, okay? Secondly, I think you will be surprised because we are, we were pleasantly surprised with the price elasticity of the brand. And therefore, in this, in the, when the deflation happens, some deflation has already happened, we will be far better prepared, including a far, far thinner pipeline to manage it. As far as, hair oil Vaho growth is concerned, if you look at the Vaho growth, the two-year CAGR is of Shanti 14%. The two years and the, you know, and, we of Shanti, the quarterly YOY growth is very high teens. It's how much?
Is it's 19%. Okay. So I think we are, as a two-year CAGR, double digit is, I think, a great this one. I, I believe that there is enough opportunity, and I think this what is also helping is SETU, because if I look at the biggest impact so far in the states where we have expanded distribution, improved the quality of rural distribution, converted a lot of indirect to direct, has been the growth of the second and the third brand, because that's where range selling happens. And SETU, we are today, if you ask me, we are just around, we have done 25%, 30%, 35%. There is still 70% to go, and it's a 3 years -5-year project.
I mean, three years obviously was initially designed, but I'm sure if we can get it, it is going to continue for the next three to five years. So we are extremely confident about this. One more interesting thing we are doing is that at one point in time, the volume value share gap in hair oils was 10, it has now gone down to five. So focus on abandoning the... I won't call it abandoning, but holding forth in the bottom of pyramid and 10/20, not doing anything irrational, but you know, focusing on you know, the packs like Jasmine, Aloe, Hair & Care, and some of the other brands, is actually helping, and we will continue to focus on value share.
As you know, these brands are actually high margin, so they're helping in the mix, they're helping in the overall gross margin, you know, improvement over the next couple of years.
Sure, thanks. That's all from me. Thank you.
Sorry, just to add, I think, just to reassure everyone, you know, this is a category which is very close to, you know, India. Not only that, it's a category that is significant, even the Middle East, including Middle Eastern countries, Egypt. I mean, this is a category that continues to grow, and we have great faith in this category, and we have ensured that we continue to invest behind this habit. And this habit is, how I know, is going to stay. I think that is something which we have proven in the last 20 years, contrary to some people thinking this category will die down.
Sure. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mihir Shah from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question.
Hi.
Congrats on a great set of numbers. So just continuing on Vaho, except for Setu, the kind of growth that we are seeing is really sharp, and apparently the other players are also seeing sharper growth. But I don't see them, you know, marrying together because each of these subcategories have a different market. You know, they are more ingredient-based hair oils, which are preferred. So what is really driving this growth? What is a sustainable number for Vaho that, you know, we can think about over the near term, you know, maybe the next two to four quarters? So that's part A. Part B is, given Vaho has the highest margin in the core business, higher than, you know, Parachute and Saffola.
And as copra headwinds start to wane and, you know, those margins will start improving, higher growth from Vaho can be a, you know, can add to that, margin expansion. So how should one think about that play as well? So that's my first question.
Okay. Coming to... I think, we are extremely confident of delivering double-digit value growth in VAHO. As you see, recent trends about also a double-digit volume growth is also very much possible. See, it's a combination of different factors. I think the resource allocation is working. We have converted a lot of monies which was locked into BTL, below the line, spends in the 10 packs , 20 packs of Shanti Amla into ATL. We believe, as the job of a market leader is to drive equity and not be satisfied if the competitor doesn't spend, in a SOV, because ultimately we have significantly invested in SOV. We have significantly... If you look at the reach and the weighted distribution of each of the brands due to Setu, has increased sufficiently and far more sharper positioning and a portfolio approach across states.
You are absolutely right about the, you know, the mix, because the moment the mix of VAHO increases, that will be a margin kind of a tailwind. And I will want Pawan to answer what the expectation on the margins are.
On one, Harit, Mihir, the first thing that you said is, of course, value-added hair oil has better margins, and that exactly is the reason as to why we could still deliver, you know, reasonably resilient profit growth this year, despite significant, you know, copra inflation, because the mix has helped. Now, as far as next year is concerned, you know, again, giving a guidance with respect to what kind of a percentage margin, you know, we can deliver is difficult, but at least we're very confident of delivering at least mid-teen growth. We could try for more, and at least we would strive for, you know, improving the operating margin by about 150 basis points to about 200 basis points.
Understood. Got it. That's, that's very clear. Thanks for that. Second, on the copra-led price cuts, given that this time around price increases were relatively very sharp, I think, there's an expectation that the price cuts also probably will, will be very sharp. So wanted to get a sense on how should one think about the pricing in Parachute as you go down the quarter, given copra's already down 30%. Maybe in a month or two, you had earlier highlighted that price cuts can probably, you know, start in February or March.
I wanted to get a sense of that, and how many times do you think that one will have to take price cuts to ensure the trade channel remains healthy in terms of stocking? So that's the second question.
So we, we haven't taken any pricing action so far, and there are two, three reasons for that. Firstly, we had not taken price increase in line with the increase in copra prices. Copra prices shot up by more than 200%, but we had taken price increase of 60%. So now that the copra prices are corrected by 25%-30%, we are not taking any immediate correction from a premium standpoint, as in premium to lose, we are still comfortable, and therefore, we need not be getting into pricing action immediately. Secondly, we are still awaiting you know, to get a firm handle on how the copra price trajectory will move, which we'll get by March-April, and then take correction in one go, rather than taking in multiple steps.
Because if you take pricing correction in multiple steps, it disturbs the trade rhythm. That is how we are looking at it. However, we may pass on some benefit through, you know, some sort of consumer offers, et cetera, in lieu of pricing in the interim before we get a firm handle with respect to how the copra will behave, and then we take out, you know, firmer price cuts.
See, we are, we want to be clear about the visibility of what should be the price cut and take one price cut. We will not take multiple price cuts. The big change that has happened is that we work with far, far, you know, pipelines because of our supply chain efficiencies and our AI-based forecasting models, which we do. So therefore, you know, we are compared to, say, five years ago and all that, that the changeover, which used to take eight weeks, you know, to 12 weeks, especially in rural, this is going to be much faster because of what we are doing now.
Got it. That's very clear. Thank you so much, Pawan. Wishing you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Harit Kapoor from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening. There's two questions. First is on foods. You know, the growth rates, you had already mentioned in the last quarter that you will you know, relook at you know, the profitability, just adjust it and then, you know, see an acceleration in growth. You've spoken about 25% CAGR in your presentation. Just wanted to know, what is the timeline that we can expect that, you know, you see a recovery in the growth rate starting to kind of pick up again on the food side? And, the second question is on Bangladesh. Again, phenomenal performance, you know, in that, in that market, as you have continued to do extremely well, but there continue to be some macroeconomic uncertainties.
So just wanted your thought, the last time something like this happened, you kind of went through relatively unscathed. You know, just wanted to get your sense on how do you see the position on ground? So these are the two questions. Thank you.
Okay. As far as food is concerned, I think as far as the organic part of the food is concerned, we will get back into growth of, you know, in the coming two quarters. When we talk about food, 20-25% growth, it's a combination of organic, inorganic, and there is... We are absolutely certain we'll start getting back into 25% growth of food business. Now, coming to Bangladesh, yes, I think, we are waiting, we are closely monitoring the situation. So far, we have been extremely resilient. Even in that quarter, of, that quarter two, when, you know, the issues were quite, you know, grim in terms of the-- I think it was in August that this thing happened. That quarter, I think we grew by 9%?
Yes.
We delivered a 9% value growth. So I think we have taken steps out there, and we don't see any reason to be extremely concerned at this moment in time in terms of delivering business.
If I could take one more question. You know, the Parachute process that you've mentioned is basically saying that the, you know, there was a reduction in, like, the RPIs that you were making because you took a much lower price increase than you did, and you wait for those RPIs to maybe slightly normalize a little bit, and then you take the one short price tag. That's right?
Yeah, that's right. That's right.
Yeah.
See, if you look at it, copra actually moved almost 80%-100%. We took a 60% price hike. At current levels, our price premium is still tolerable, and therefore, we will wait, I think, by a certain time, where we get visibility of what will be the likely input cost for the large part of the year. When it happens, we will take one shot, you know, one price, we will take. And as I said, that the two differences are that we obviously have a far more thinner pipeline and a far better position in terms of, you know, our ability to handle this. Yes, in the past we have struggled, but this time we are confident that there will be no such, you know, issues as far as volume growth is concerned.
In any case, the absolute pricing was so high this time, that had impacted volume growth.
Great to hear. Thank you. Thank you so much. Wish you all the best.
Mm-hmm.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Percy from IIFL. Please go ahead.
Hi, Saugata. My question is also on the copra pricing only. So supposing if this price remains where it is, which is like a 20% down, and you are saying that you're comfortable with this kind of a premium to the other players. In that kind of a situation, what kind of margin expansion can we expect on a overall consolidated basis for the company because of the pricing benefit on the copra?
So I think we didn't say that we'll not take any pricing action. We just want to get a firm handle of what the copra trajectory could be. If it were to remain in that 20% lower, then still we might take correction, but over a period of time, which we may not be doing immediately. And therefore, from a margin standpoint, I just mentioned, I mean, very difficult to give you a margin percentage guidance, very confident of delivering mid-teens growth. But we'll definitely strive for, as I said earlier, that 150 to 200 basis points margin we should try and improve.
Okay, mid-teens growth in rupee terms on EBITDA.
Operating profit, yeah.
Yeah, that what-
Got it.
That should be our base case.
Got it. Got it. Got it. Secondly, just wanted to understand on Saffola Foods, this quarter growth is only 5%. What is the reason for that?
As I told you that, we are two things: One, we are ensuring that profitability, so we take, a lot of businesses which we believe is, two things, you know. One, we had these things like mayo, peanut butter and all that, we have rationalized, which was there perhaps in the base. Some of the SKUs which, we have reduced complexity, so rationalized some of the SKUs. And thirdly, in certain SKUs into customer/channel, which are not so profitable, we have rationalized that also. Because I believe, you know, in, in food, you have to continuously, after every two, three years, get into one step jump into profitability.
Got it. Got it. So would I be right in assuming that if you have sort of rationalized the SKUs itself, this burden will be there for another three quarters before it annualizes and your growth would probably-
No, no, no. 1-2 quarters. We started this 1.5 quarters ago, so within over the next 2 quarters, you know, we will start seeing growth, good growth.
Understood.
In any case-
Yeah.
As I said, that our ambition on foods of 20%-25% includes organic plus inorganic. So you will start seeing 20%+ growth in any case there from next quarter.
Yeah, but that's because of 4700BC, right?
That's... Yeah, that's fine, because we have always said that, you know, over a long term, our growth ambition is a mixture of organic and inorganic, so it's fine.
Got it. So got it. Okay, that's all from me. Thanks and all the best.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you may please press star and one. Our next question comes from the line of Nihal Mahesh Jham from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir, Saugata, congratulations on the good performance. Just, continuing on the foods bit of it, as you highlighted, is it mainly a case of moderation in the portfolio on the SKU basis? Or are we also, say, optimizing some of the advertising spends, in say, a lot of these online first brands? And where is the confidence coming, if I leave apart the inorganic element, that you mentioned about 4700BC sort of being consolidated, that the growth is going to recover in two quarters. So what is driving that confidence?
I think two things. One, as I said, the anniversary, so we have stopped, rationalized, some of the products, like we had some flavors, some things like, you know, you know, what I call mayo, peanut butter and some of the stuff we had launched. So that anniversarization is going to happen. Secondly, obviously, all the investments and, as we go focused back into driving penetration of our core and investment. So we have not rationalized anything, and that, that should drive some of the growth back. Now, as I said, that as long as this, we expect the growth go, to be back into double digits. And, obviously, this doesn't include any innovation, any innovation which we do organically from our base portfolio also add to that.
I think our first step is over the next two quarters to get this into double digits, which we are pretty confident about. And then, the overall foods growth, I mean, will continue because of whatever organic plus inorganic into the 20%-25% +.
Understood. Second, again, on the copra bit, that historically, as you said, whenever there's been a sharp correction in copra on a quarter-on-quarter basis, now we're seeing a 30% correction from peak. There's only two things at play. We are obviously sitting on our raw material inventory, so that somewhere limits immediate pricing action. And then there is channel pipeline also, which ends up, say, impacting how the pass-through happens to the channel, and that sort of affects volume growth. On the channel pipeline, you mentioned you're running much thinner, but is there a case where we may have to maybe aggressively reduce our prices, and that can maybe have an impact in terms of, you know, seeing the benefits of gross margin play out?
Just wanted to understand that, you know, would there be a lot of dynamic elements this quarter which could end up impacting the performance of the PCNO category?
No, I don't think so. Now, we are talking about one month is down the quarter, in this quarter. As I said, two things. One is that, we are comfortable with our price premium as we, as we are today. Number two is that we don't need to take our aggressive price down because, see, you must also realize that, we are, I think the brand equity keeps on growing stronger. Usually after, such a long, you know, I mean, an inflationary cycle, weaker brands and they really, you know, become weak.
Number three, which is also gives us hope that at least one of our competitors is being extremely rational on pricing, because, we also faced, as you know, irrational pricing from two competitors in the past, and now at least one of them are, you know, in terms of they are following a rational pricing model. So, you know, it, you know, which I believe is good, because at the end of the day, there is no point selling at negative gross margin. That spoils the market long term and creates equity. So a combination of all that, we are extremely... And as I said that today we are sitting on 33% of this quarter is gone, and we are sitting pretty comfortably.
And as I said, that, also the third thing that will help us is there is a 2%-3% loss which we were having on MRP, that gets anniversarized from quarter one next year. So a combination of that, we are fairly certain. Obviously, I know because of the past, there could be certain, you know, kind of issues which we are far, far in a better shape to cope with all that. And I think, as I said, to give positive growth, and, I think really look at it this way, that, with a 60% price hike in transaction terms, we have still given growth. Now, that itself is, I'm yet to see any brand in the world which has done that. So I think we are far more confident, and therefore, there is no need to take...
As I said, we will not take multiple price hikes. We will take one single price hike, which will ensure a far more smoother transition. Some of it obviously will go towards margin expansion.
Got that. Just, just one quick follow-up on the foods business. You did mention that the CAGR growth that you're giving includes 4700BC. Now, just to get a sense that it may be difficult for us to get a sense how, you know, acquisitions will play out over the next three years. But for this current foods portfolio, what is the bare minimum organic growth that you will be targeting?
We have always said we will deliver double-digit growth, organic growth, and we have been delivering double-digit organic growth. This is, I think this is an aberration, and we have to get it sorted within the next 1 or 2 quarters, we are confident of.
Got that. Thank you so much. Wish you all the best.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Prakash Kapadia from Kapadia Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. Just wanted to get a sense on the cold-pressed market. Any thoughts? Are we late in the segment because it's already a competitive market, or the time is, you know, very large and we see, you know, structural opportunities, with, you know, increasing health awareness? So what's your thought on that? And typically, it's more for the Q-com, Ecom customer only, the general trade would be lower, is what I would guess. And secondly, so, on, you know, the GST cuts, how do we see volume growth picking up? Is there a tailwind for, you know, larger players like us, where, you know, growth can be higher and, you know, we can gain market share?
I think, coming to cold-pressed oils, it started off as a niche kind of, but it is rapidly catching up. In fact, it's a big trend today in the Western markets. And as you know, India picks up a lot of trends from U.K. and U.S., the developed markets, in terms of food habits at the premium end. Yes, it is currently a far more skew in e-com, but we believe we are now seeing this in modern trade, and it will very soon be a critical mass. We are not late to the party at all. I think, we are, I would call ourselves a fast follower with a brand which has significant equity, and we have now a broad participation strategy.
The good thing is it makes significantly higher margins than some of the entry-level Saffola, which will also help in the profitability of the Saffola, and we will also invest. Sometimes what happens in a category with low penetration, if you have two, three serious players investing behind the category, the category grows. And this is exactly the position where cold-pressed oil is. And it is today a very drop in the ocean in that large edible oil space. But as you know, you had all the premium hair oils, premium edible oils, which grew. For example, how we grew Saffola, how the premium part of this one grew or some of the other spaces grew. I think this one also will have a critical mass very soon.
I think modern trade and premium GT will see a significant presence of cold-pressed oil in the couple of years.
Typically, consumers are ready to pay 2x price of edible oil. Is that, you know, the broader price you want to-
See, I'll tell you what, how it works. Today, at the premium end, there is a, while people wanting to pay for a healthy oil, they're also using less oil. So also there is the, if you look at people eating out, people ordering in through food apps, people traveling abroad, so actual cooking oil consumption at the premium end is, you know, in terms of, you know, total volume actually has gone down a bit. So I don't think the outlay is that significant enough for that top end, you know? So that delta for health is absolutely acceptable because they are doing it for lots of things. For example, they are... On food today, people are willing to spend on health as long as it is actually, you know, in something which-...
You know, whether it's nutritionists, whether it's doctors, whether it's, some of the influencers are actually, you know, advocating for things and some things which have also grown in the Western markets as, something which has a health tailwind.
Sure, sure. Understood. And you know, on the midterm growth with, you know, some of these cuts, is there a play for higher growth? Because, you know, some of these smaller players could get marginalized. How do we see that shaping up?
Just, I didn't get your question. So which category you're talking about?
No, in general, volume growth in the midterm, given that, you know, GST cut has happened, which was not expected last quarter. From here on, you know, is there a room for higher growth and smaller players, you know, could lose market share structurally? Is that an opportunity?
Absolutely. See, I'll tell you what has happened is that at least in food and packaged food, where packaged food, you know, penetration in India is low. The fact that more, the entire packaged food is at 5%, that definitely encourages conversion from unbranded to branded, unpackaged to packaged. Packaged food is hygienic, packaged food is aspirational. Similarly, in some of the personal care categories, mass categories, which have become 5%, there will be a long, medium to long-term movement towards aspirational brands, because of the affordability factor, which has now set in with this significant reduction in GST, especially personal care categories, which have moved from 18% to 5%, which means a significant reduction and driving affordability. Because as the country's GDP improves, as the per capita income improves, people want aspirational brands.
It's the outlay which sometimes is a restriction, and therefore, structurally, in the medium term, this GST is transformative and will definitely give, you know, growth, added growth to all the brands, especially in categories which have seen a significant GST cut.
Understood. Thank you. All the best.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now take our last question from the line of Sheela Rathi from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. My question is with respect to the 4700BC acquisition. The first part of the question is, now that, you know, Sougata, you talked about how different the distribution for this brand has been, where, you know, they're catering to institutions, airlines, and malls. Is there a need for us to learn or unlearn with respect to the distribution strategy? Or we will just focus on what we are strong at, which is, you know, the retail distribution. And the second part to this question is, what is the real competition in this category at this point of time? I'm sure the TAM is still small, but who are the real competitors here?
Let me first address the second question. I think... See, you have to see TAM as snacking. A, a consumer can take a samosa, a consumer can have a popcorn, they can have a soup, they can have a noodles, and they can have a, a ragi chips. So I think the entire thing that you have to look at, you are playing in a slightly more indulgent but better for you gourmet portion of snacking, and the market is enormous. So it doesn't have popcorn to popcorn, unless you are going only for a movie, and as I said, that part of the business is extremely low. There is no need to unlearn. I think there is, this brand has significant legs, and I said that for sampling people to experience the product, what they are doing in institutional selling will continue.
This, the brand is still 60%-70%, is still retail. It's only currently mostly e-com. There is very little. So therefore, the first thing is obviously to grow that in, you know, things like modern trade, premium food outlets using the Marico GTM, while continuing to. And in fact, this will help us tomorrow, for example, looking at True Elements for institutional sales. If a person can have popcorn on a flight, why can't they have, you know, some mixed nuts on a flight from True Elements? So therefore, actually it opens up multiple synergies. It opens up multiple vectors of growth. At the same time, as I said, that with True Elements, this brand and others, there are a lot of synergies on, you know, at the back end and cost.
Today, each brand has their own sales system, they own this one, their cost structures are, you know, when it's standalone versus Marico. So there are significant opportunities for, which then can be plowed back towards investment behind the brand to grow it further.
All right. Understood, Sougata. Thank you.
Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you, Jennifer.
Thanks for dialing in on the call. To conclude, we've continued to deliver high single-digit volume growth and log market shares and penetration gains in India business, despite inflationary headwinds in some of the key core categories. The international business continues to grow from strength to strength, supported by a broad-based performance across markets. We remain focused on advancing our diversification agenda in both India and overseas businesses, and will maintain investments to drive the same. With input cost pressures exhibiting moderating trends, we will aim to sustain the top quartile volume growth momentum and are confident of strengthening our operating profit growth trajectory in the quarters ahead. That is it from our side. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out to our IR team and they would be happy to address. Thank you, and have a great evening.
Thank you. On behalf of Marico Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.