Hello, sir. Good morning. Pleased to meet you. Raj from Taiyo Pacific Partners.
Raj.
Hi.
You want to share?
No, I'm fine.
Thank you. You are based out of?
Seattle.
Okay. Sure.
All right, thank you so much.
This is Mr. K. N . He's the CEO and Director of TVS Motor Company.
Right.
He's right now based out of our factory at Hosur.
Oh, perfect.
Okay.
Right. Pleased to meet you, and thank you for your time again. I'll probably give a brief introduction about myself and the firm that I represent, and then we can get started. Myself, Raj from Taiyo Pacific Partners. Taiyo is a hedge fund based out of Seattle. The firm was started in 2001 by three founding partners, Brian, Michael, and John. The basic thought process was to identify potential investment opportunities in Japan. We are not just passive investors in any company that we invest in. We also want to engage with the company and try to increase the shareholder value, and that's been the ideology on which the. It's more like activist fund.
There are, like, more than five or six Japanese companies where we are more than 5% shareholder. Our founder, Brian, sits on the boards of more than five or six, more than four publicly listed companies in Japan. The India fund took off in the year 2011 with the same thought process, and we wanted to invest in small and mid-cap names. As we speak, the total AUM for the company is around $3.5 billion. A major portion of it is in the Japanese companies. India fund is relatively small. It's around $160 million or $170 million. Right now, we are invested in about 20 publicly listed companies. We are kind of sector agnostic. The investments are spread across, but there are sectors which we avoid. Sorry, is it okay if I?
No, that's fine.
Okay. Sorry about that. Yeah. In general, sector agnostic, we are invested across. Sectors which we avoid are PSUs, real estate, where there's less transparency, commodities, metals, utilities and stuff like that. Otherwise, I think, we are spread across. As far as our auto exposure is concerned, I mean, we had exposure to ancillaries, not OEMs per se. We were invested in the top Wiring Harness manufacturer, and we are invested in one of the leading off-highway tire manufacturer. I think it's pretty easy to guess the name, but I am not supposed to give the name anyway.
Motherson .
Correct. That's right. The off-highway tire I'm talking about is probably a Bombay-based one, 5% global market share, and I think that's easy as well. Right now, I mean, we are looking to increase our auto exposure as well. Two-wheelers, I mean, it's been in a period of lull. Last two years, a double-digit decline. We thought of engaging with two-wheeler companies and try to see what the future prospects are because rural demand has been sluggish for a long time because of COVID and many other reasons, supply chain constraints, the chip shortage, compounded by the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions and all that. Briefly about myself, I mean, I've been with this firm for four years. I started my career with ECS.
During my stint, I was involved with the National Stock Exchange, doing development and maintenance of the trading platform. That was in Bombay for about a year and a half. Post which, somehow I got excited in the financial markets. I went to the U.K. to do my master's in finance, came back, interned with a wealth management firm based out of Bangalore. The firm was started by Mrunmay Das, who was ex-CIO of Azim Premji. He left the firm. He started his own wealth management company. I interned there for about six months, and after that, I worked with a Murugappa company for about three years a s a sell-side Research Analyst covering Auto and IT. Back then, this was long back, sir. This was 2011, 10.
You're a Chennai-based?
Yeah. I'm a Chennai boy, as my name implies.
Yeah. Got it.
Back then, I think S. G. Murali was your CFO during those days, 10 years back, maybe. I mean, your stock was around INR 100 or something like that. I don't exactly remember how, what it was, but I used to cover TVS Motor Company as well 10 years back, so I know about the company. It's been a long time. I mean, it's been a long time since I've been tracking, but the point is I was with Cholamandalam for three years, and after that I went on to work as a Senior Research Analyst for Crisil. I was an offshore Research Associate for Deutsche Bank.
After which I got an offer from Deutsche to join their research team, and that's when I decided to go to the U.S. for my MBA. I did my MBA in University of Notre Dame. It's not just an MBA, it's a dual degree master's, MBA and master's in Business Analytics. Somewhere during the entire journey, I also completed the CFA and. As a part of the internship, I joined Taiyo. I went on to work as a contractor during the second year of my MBA program, got a full-time role. In the last three years, I mean, I've been working as a full-time and for one year, maybe as an intern and a contractor. My journey with this firm has been for four years now.
The good thing about the firm is that they give you a lot of freedom to do due diligence checks. I mean, before, when I was a Sell-Side Research Analyst, the only thing I got to do was meet the company maybe two times or three times in a year, build detailed financial models and come up with the target prices and all that. Here, I mean, our company says, "Go talk to the customers, distributors, suppliers, go visit their manufacturing facilities, get a feel of what the product is," and they give you complete freedom. For all our portfolio companies, we make it a point to talk to the companies at least once in a quarter.
We directly interact with the promoters. I mean, our founding partners think what's really important. I mean, they got burnt with a few investments in India. I don't want to name them, but their thought process is we should know who we are dealing with. Our due diligence process is little detailed. I mean, they want to talk to the promoters, understand the company, what the story is, what the competitive advantage is, and everything has to fall together.
Due diligence takes about three or four months before even we decide to invest in a company because right now, if I talk, I go and pitch my team why TVS is a good idea, and we get on a Zoom call with CEO, CFO. After they are convinced, I come down again, visit the Hosur plant or like, I mean, talk to customers or do some due diligence checks and then the process gets the ball rolling. The initial, I mean, the ticket size for us would be $5 million-$20 million, as we speak. I mean, our largest position is about, slightly above $20 million. That's the sweet spot for our investing. I think I've been talking a lot. I mean, without further ado, I would like to.
No, no. You gave a clear picture about your company, your association with the company, your intent of business, yeah. Since you said you know about TVS, do you want us to give a brief about the TVS or straightaway go to the questions? Or do you have any specific question?
I don't want a detailed history of the company, sir, but something on the latest business updates. Like, right now, in the last two years, like I mentioned, the two-wheeler industry was the hardest hit among all the other product categories. I believe 50% of it is because of the chip shortage, more than anything else.
I think I am the right person to take you through.
I just wanted to understand your thought process on that. Because when I was reading your Annual Report, I was just looking at the MD&A part, and even you're of the same thought process on that rural demand is gonna come back strongly this year. Just three days back, I had a meeting with the auto ancillary company in Mumbai. They were of the opinion that they were also of the opinion that Diwali is when the two-wheeler market will be back to pre-COVID volumes.
They're also of the opinion that the chip shortage issues that's been haunting the industry for so long, that it'll be gone even before the end of this year. I mean, I'm just trying to connect all the dots, and I wanted to hear from you what the future prospects are and why that optimism that rural demand is gonna come back strongly. Thank you and over to you, sir.
Yeah. First of all, we should all know that last 12 quarters is not normal, it is abnormal. If I just forget about these 12 quarters and if you look at on a macro basis, why two-wheelers in this country will grow? Three reasons. Number one, India has got the right demography, more young people, and there is a need for mobility. Number two, India public transport system is, you know, I don't have to explain. There's practically no public transport system here. If at all something is there, it is there in the urban area. Okay? That is also not sufficient. India always lags behind creating any capacity. You go to the airports now, it is overflowing.
Always think that, "Oh, we should have another 100 aerobridges or possibly another big area to keep the flights." Also, India, the population is our strength, and the young people are our strengths. However, the capacity creation has been very, very low in terms of public transport. The only right option and a flexible option is a two-wheeler. Now, coming to the employment, if I look at both the rural and urban put together, more than 50% of the population are self-employed. Okay? When I say self-employed, it's starting from like somebody using the agricultural products or milk distribution or newspaper distribution or vegetable distribution, so on and so forth. Plumber, mechanic, maintenance guy, electrician. Because they use the two-wheeler to attend multiple customers.
The more they attend, the more money they will make on a daily basis. This is the background. Given this, and the only according to me that what the government has done brilliantly is creating very good infrastructures. You know, if you have compared five years back and today, the number of highways connecting many parts of India is amazing. Okay? There was a period where we have to depend upon train or buses, but today I can tell you, even for me, from Mumbai to Chennai, faster to come through the highway than to come through the flight. Including all the processes of security, checking, waiting in the airport. Okay? I get in here, 4 hours I am in Chennai. Okay. That kind of infrastructure is definitely helping the people. Okay?
Pre-COVID situation, if you look at it, India, the CAGR used to be 10%-12% on the two-wheeler side. I'm of the opinion that that is the real steady state demand you will see here. Now, what has happened, pre-COVID also we should know that today in terms of the homologation safety standards, the emission norms, India is the best, not the Europe anymore. India is ahead of those countries. We may all wonder, is it required? Because, you know, the kind of infrastructure what we have, the roads what we have, the city traffic what we have, and other reasons for pollution we have. Should we be BS VI? Should we be ahead of Euro-5 ? All these questions we can ask. Or do we need to have ABS in 125 cc and above?
Because ABS is required when you drive 100 km, 120 km, 150 km, okay? If you look at in an urban or a semi-urban area, maximum speed you can get is 40 km. Okay. However, I think according to me, these are the right things. If I put it just before COVID, we had demonetization. I'm taking you little before this. Demonetization, why it is important is 50% of our customers buy with cash. So practically for 12 months, cash was not available. Okay. What was available was used for running the family, running the education of the children, so that affected the industry. Came the GST. Okay. Surprising, overall, the decision makers. Majority of the two-wheelers are used by the bottom of the pyramid or middle of the pyramid, were self-employed, you know. They are charged 28%. Whereas a smartphone in India is 18%.
The GST slab, yeah.
Yeah. These are some. All of you should know about it because these days 10% more is much higher. Much higher. Came the BS III to BS IV. Came all the safety norms. Came the BS IV to BS VI. It's like a hop, skip, and jump, no? BS IV to BS V is not there. BS IV to BS VI. In the meantime, insurance company thought that, no, you know, two-wheelers, third-party insurance should be better than car. In India, car third-party insurance is for three years, but two-wheelers is five years. Again, one increase was there about three years back. Last month also there is another increase. Okay? All put together, and of course, all the raw material increases, daily increases.
All put together, what you have seen in the last, let's say 12-18 quarters is something like 50% increase in the cost. Okay? Unfortunately, the income level of these people have not gone up by that. The same thing, the earlier years used to be done over a period of, let us say, 10 years. People had some ability to absorb this energy and then their income levels will also help them. This COVID in the last eight quarters, especially the wave one and wave two were severe. Wave three is okay. Now people are pretty confident. You know, most of the people, even if they have cold, they don't report. They take their own medicine three days, and then after that they are. It's like a normal flu. Thanks to the vaccination drive in India, whatever we have seen.
Now, coming to the rural area, this anxiety of hospitalization, this COVID wave, I think we are very, very optimistic that that is not there. Which means they are able to sell, they are able to travel, they are able to distribute, they are able to see the momentum. Okay. What we said is absolutely right. Unfortunately, when we went to BS VI, everything is electronic fuel injection. All two-wheelers are electronic fuel injection. So the content of semiconductors has substantially gone up. Okay. Because the content has gone up, that is seriously affecting. Okay. We had some problems in ABS. We had problems in semiconductors for some of the vehicles. Particularly, we had two important products, Apache and Raider, seriously it got affected. April was practically zero production. May was zero production. This month is little better.
This is something which is definitely. This is the period after two years, you know. There are two seasons, not only Diwali season. April, May, June is the marriage season in India. Okay. While we don't like the dowry system, but, you know, unfortunately, people buy two-wheelers and give it to them. This is one perspective. Another perspective is definitely India is becoming much more aspirational. Young people want premium products. Okay? Of course, their father, mother or whoever, they will say, "No, no, I'll get you a simple scooter." But they want only the premium scooter. They want only the premium motorcycle. Okay? Those people who are just employed, you know, they will always buy a premium product. The premiumization has been moving in a big way. Okay.
If you travel on a Saturday or a Sunday in this highway, if possible you try what you see in Europe, what you see in U.S., what you see in many parts of the developed world, you will see here. Clubs of people, 200, 300 people riding together. Leisure. You know, they ride for about 200 km together. They enjoy breakfast, lunch. The primary thing is that because infrastructure is there, they want to have the get-together. They want to use the bike or a scooter, premium scooter as a device. There are a lot of racing clubs in India. For example, Apache Racing Club is one of the prominent clubs in India.
These are all, in my opinion, are the transformation journey we are seeing as a country looking forward to more modern, more stylish, more aspirational products. Now, coming to TVS, I hope I have given you a broad what is the logic, why it will come to 10%-12%. Okay? Now, one more important thing I'll tell you. Scooters in the urban, okay, currently the category share of scooters is about, in the two-wheeler industry, is about 30%-33%. I've also personal view that it will go substantially up, because again, multiple use in the urban. For a father can use, mother can use, daughter, son, anybody. And, given the traffic, it is variable type of product. You don't have a gear.
There's no pain for your, you know, hands or the joints. Very convenient. Okay? Typically for the Indian women, for their attire of whatever they wear, your sarees or this one, a scooter is a far, far comfortable platform. Okay? That is the reason it has come to 30%-33%. Now, coming to TVS, I think we are very strong in premium. Apache is number one now in the, as a brand in the market share in India. In scooters, we are a strong number two. Of course, Honda is number one. As a portfolio, we are starting from the old traditional Scooty. Scooty Zest, then Jupiter. Jupiter 110 and Jupiter 125, then the premium, Ntorq. Outstanding range of products. Okay? If you look at, we have an excellent response from the market. Okay?
Coming to the commuter motorcycles and moped, we have excellent products, but that is the place which is affected by the rural. Now we are confident that slowly it will pick up. Okay? On the motorcycles, after Apache, it is the 125cc Raider. Very modern. Those young people who cannot afford an Apache, okay, they will settle with the Raider. Okay. It is a compromise decision between the father and the son. Okay? After some time, he will jump into Apache. Apache is really aspirational. It is very young and modern. Strength of... This is on the domestic market. If I look at the international market, the strength of TVS is outstanding range. You know, from moped to scooters to motorcycles, up to RR 310.
RR 310 is a product what we have a common platform with BMW. They have products out of that. We have products out of that. Okay? It has got every element of the 1,200cc in that. Okay. Now coming to international market, currently we are there, of course, through BMW, we are there in every market. We have sold more than 100,000 bikes through BMW. Okay. If I look at otherwise, predominantly our exports is more on developing markets like Africa, Latin America, ASEAN, Asia. Okay. Practically every market and all of you knows that we have a manufacturing complete business in Indonesia. The products there are different. Okay. They are scooters and bikes. You look at the profile of the people, they're shorter, they're thinner.
You know, more women use these products. That is why we have designed and developed. Give you a little bit of CAGR. I think last five years, international market, the CAGR was about 8%. We have done 18%. Okay. Domestic market, same way. The CAGR was about 3%, and we have done 8%. We have continued to outgrow the industry, thanks to the kind of product range what we have. We focus on customer satisfaction. We are J.D. Power number one in all types of quality and also appeal quality. Appeal quality is very, very important because that is the aspiration. That is based on the features, the kind of technology what you give. For example, a simple scooter has got connected features.
It has got complete connectivity with bluetooth. Now we have voice assist. The latest scooter, whatever we have put it into the market, has got voice. The important thing is aspirationally, the proportion of people buying may be initially low, but I have seen over a period of time, 15% of the portfolio will be this kind of products, because customers are very much interested. Okay? The most important thing, even for African market, we design and develop for the local market. We don't make something, you know. For example, India, if you, if I look at it, even colors are, choices are different. If you go to east, it is all about red. If you go to some part of Kerala, it is all about black. Okay? The posture, the kind of features they like, they're completely different.
Africa, for example, it is a taxi market predominantly. We have an HLX Series. Market by market, we understand the customer. We spend a lot of time. Whatever we make, we want to be best in class quality, best in class customer satisfaction, and we continue to delight the customer through the features and the benefits. Other important thing is on service, because the first service when somebody buys the bike, it comes after exactly two to three weeks. Okay. We have very clearly, very well-defined service outlets with genuine spare parts. The customer care post that is very, very critical. As you know, J.D. Power, again, we are number one for the last five years in customer service vis-à-vis any competition. The priority strategy one is customer satisfaction.
Number two, with excellent product range and customer satisfaction, we want to grow ahead of the industry. Why is this second priority? Because, you know, without top line, there is no life. Okay? This is applicable not only for us, for the distributors, dealers, suppliers, they want volume. The entire supply chain wants volume. Our objective number two or priority number two is always grow ahead of the industry. Objective three, of course, in the last couple of years, we have started with both number one and two. I think that is the right time we have to improve the profit share in the industry. You would have seen despite many challenges, I can proudly say that we are the only company who have done better and better on the EBITDA. Okay?
Maybe they are higher in terms of the absolute value. If you look at year -after -year, we are doing better and better on the EBITDA, primarily because of, number one, volume. Number two, premiumization. Number three, international market. Number three, our presence in the three-wheeler segment. Number four, the cost reduction, material cost reduction. Material cost reduction has got many elements on, commonality, looking at, the overall modularity of the design. Looking at the weight, looking at, parts commonization. Whenever the volume is higher, you can also open second supplier. Because we don't, normally we don't have multiple suppliers. But when the volume starts growing, we are able to get second supplier. We were importing almost 22% before COVID. Now we have brought it down to 7%.
There are many initiatives, including looking at every aspect of value analysis and value engineering without reducing any customer satisfaction or affecting any quality. This has helped in improving our material cost and then in turn improve our profitability. Equally, I think marketing we used to spend heavily. Now we have gone maximum through digital. That has substantially cut down the marketing cost. Really it has helped. Now coming to the EV side, we actually started our EV journey about 10 years back. We knew that EV is going to be one of the important future mobilities is going to come, and that is the genesis of iQube. As I speak, we have more than 20,000 bookings.
Unfortunately, the semiconductor industry has been a challenge, but they are also now understanding and we are supporting. You will see we moving to 10,000 very soon per month and then moving to 25,000 exit this year. The best thing is iQube has got a huge customer base and customer delight that is pulling in the market. Okay, what is our product vis-à-vis competition, if I look at it? We said, like you said, you know, customer doesn't know technology. They're agnostic. Okay, what they want is convenience. If somebody uses the entire family in India, typically you go on the road, you will see that husband, wife, two children plus lot of bags, everything will be there on the bike. Okay? Is it safe? I don't know.
That is the way because you should correlate the first point, whatever I said. The flexibility, the public transport system not being there, so mobility, if somebody has to be mobile from A to B, there is only way is two-wheeler. So, iQube does the same thing. Only thing is it's an EV, it is not IC. That's all. That is why it's successful. Okay. I think I have given a broad coverage of.
Very specific questions you can ask.
No, no, that was quite detailed. Thank you so much for that, sir. I mean, so just on the electric vehicle, I mean, you started this journey 10 years back and, so last year, I mean, if I remember correctly, the number that you mentioned in the Annual Report is, you sold 10,000 vehicles, and you have some 20% market share in the electric vehicle segment, right?
Yeah.
This year you're talking about, you said like you have 20,000 bookings and you're targeting, 15 ,000 or 20 ,000 bookings.
10,000 per month. Per month we want to go now 10,000. Maybe July, August, you will see 10,000. Exit, we want to go to something like 25,000 per month.
Okay. Exit will be 25,000. Okay. The chip shortage will be gone by then. That's why you're confident you'll be able to get.
Chip shortage also. I want to give you a little brief. Unfortunately, you know, the wave one and wave two, everybody stopped. Nobody knew what is happening. Including the chip companies also stopped. That is one disturbance. Second, if you look at it, unfortunately for the semiconductor industry, three mishaps. One, Renesas in Japan had a fire accident. I think TI had a flood in U.S. So three big companies had another stoppage of 45-60 days. Okay. These two. Number three, during this period, the COVID period, suddenly the consumer durables multiplier effect we saw. I know that we never used to use this kind of a meeting. It'll be physical, face-to-face. Suddenly Teams, Zoom. I don't know. I think everybody said work from home. Okay? There are a lot of new kind of way of work also came out.
The semiconductor industry and other industry were not able to even manage this volume. On one side they had a stoppage. On one side some companies had disaster. Okay? The regulations in India. Earlier, BS IV doesn't require so much of semiconductor. BS VI, maximum is semiconductor. Okay? All put together, suddenly we are able to see now EV, everybody's focusing on EV. EV has got, you know, you have controllers, you have VCUs, you have motors, you have Battery Management System. If you look at it, everywhere there is a PCB, there are chips, there are MOSFETs. It is the kind of multiplier I don't think anybody has seen, anybody has predicted. Suddenly the manufacturing lead times are now 52 weeks. Okay?
It's a combined effort, and I'm very sure that we will be able to come out of it. Because today, reasonably people have got a predictability saying that these are the likely kind of volumes which we are likely to do. We have also given 52 weeks of volume projections and practically what is likely to happen the next two years, three years. I think there is a change we are all expecting.
Understood. How is the electric vehicle penetration and scooters catching up? I mean, what I hear is, I mean, a lot of different companies, right? Okinawa, Ola, all that. How is your product superior to the peers and, like, how do you expect to gain on market share in the electric vehicle segment going forward?
First of all, customer satisfaction and quality. I think if you are in India, you can speak to some of our customers, some of our dealers, some of the Ola. For example, now it is off-the-shelf available is what I'm hearing. Okay?
Because of the fire accident, right?
I don't know. I think people don't look at price alone. People look at the overall, what is the value they are getting out of a product. Okay? If you look at Okinawa or Ampere or some other companies like Hero, I think I don't want to comment on them. What is so specific about TVS is whenever you are able to come here, I can show you, we design, develop, we manufacture. For example, iQube, the entire controllers are ours. The BMS system is ours. Okay? The entire motor design is ours, and we have partnered with suppliers to deliver that. Okay? It's not just buying some subassemblies from some part of the world and then assembling and giving it. Okay? You may get some advantage by doing that, but you will not have a sustained advantage.
You will see, for example, you would have seen in the last one month, iQube S, iQube, two versions of one base version and an S version, and you will see now an ST version with world-class range, okay? Features. Features what people have not seen. Possibly in the next six months you will see a premium product from India, from TVS. As you know, we are designing and developing for a global two-wheeler co-developed vehicle for BMW and for us. We are designing, completely designing and developing. What is more critical according to me as a sustainable model is that element of design and development, not just assembly and do something and give it to the people. Then because you...
See, I can't give you my product plan, but I can tell you the strength of TVS is I have a Jupiter base version, a ZX version, and a Grande version, and a classic version, and a Jupiter 125 version. I have a Ntorq, and even in Ntorq you have 80, XP. I think you can go through the leaflet. Each one is targeted on specific customer segments. Okay, if you look at Apache 160, 160 2V, 160 4V. 4V is different, 2V is different. It is 4-valve technology to 2-valve technology.
Okay. Then you get into 180, then you get into 200, then you get into 310. I think the core of the You understand the customer, you understand the space, and then design and develop based on that. That is what is going to give you the cutting edge. Of course, never compromise quality. Never compromise quality. Even if it takes couple of months, nothing. Nothing to worry.
Understood. A question on the margins, sir. Sir, the way you have actually gone from single-digit margins to double digits, I mean, back then, if I understand correctly, you were investing in product development, marketing and all that, and now you're probably reaping results, I mean, on that because of premiumization higher than market industry volumes and exports, three-wheelers and all that, all the reasons that you mentioned. Going forward, I mean, the margin trajectory will be double digits on a sustainable basis. Is that a fair assumption?
Absolutely right.
See, the key investments, what you said is absolutely right. You have to invest behind product and technology. That will give you better and better products and better and better variants. Because consumers today, thanks to the smartphone, they want new revisions, new features in their product. Okay? I'm of the view that maybe the premium kind of an EV vehicle, they will have big screens with all the attachments. They will also use it for mobility.
Right. Understood. Just on the industry, I mean, going back to the top line, without which there's no line. I mean, on that, the steady-state CAGR is like 10%-12% for the industry. In the last five years, I mean, starting with demand, there have been multiple reasons that have plagued the infdustry and for which the cost has gone up by as much as 50%, like you mentioned and all that. If I understand correctly, it's on the cusp of a upcycle, bottom of an upcycle. Things have gradually improved. Now we are looking at a kind of a favorable monsoon for this year. Chip shortage problems will subside. Rural demand will come back and your plan is to grow higher than the industry, so maybe higher than 12% is what you are probably internally working with. 15% on the top line.
I don't want to give you a guidance because industry will do well this year. Okay? What percentage, we have to very closely look at it because the constraints when this will get completely eradicated on the semiconductor, we have to closely monitor. Okay? Overall, I'm of the view that we have a very good opportunity to grow with our new products plus existing products. Okay? You would have seen our Vahan share. We have gained more than 3%.
Right.
3% in three months, four months time, when we had all the headwinds of semiconductors. Assume once semiconductors start coming in for Raider and Jupiter 125, both in domestic market, it is a huge opportunity to take the growth trajectory of this company to much, much higher levels.
Understood. What percentage of your sales is currently exports, and what was it like five years back, five, six years back?
Yeah. 30%.
Yeah, it's 30% now.
I forgot to mention one important thing I forgot to mention is that we have a very strong in-house financing arm, TVS Credit Services. Desikan can give you a quick update, the book size and-
Certainly. A healthy company, very good, book size now around close to INR 16,000 crore. The quality of the books is also very, very sound. There are no NPAs the last six months now, continuously. We don't make any provision. Collections are extremely robust. It's comparable or better than the pre-COVID days today. We are extremely prudent in the provisioning norms. Whatever the RBI is talking about, which is going to be prospective, we have already implemented that t o that extent, it's a very sound company, well-run, professionally run. I mean, in fact, we have been. We were a little cautious in the business growth because of the COVID, and we were careful. Otherwise, we would have even crossed INR 18,000 crore by now.
Right. For all the customers who buy vehicles from you, how many of them take finance from TVS Credit?
As far as the two-wheeler industry is concerned, the penetration, retail finance penetration is close to 50%-52% today. Now, over that 50% is serviced by TVS Credit, and the rest are by other financials.
50% by TVS Credit is it? You are the largest player?
I'm not talking about the industry. I'm talking about TVS Motor Company.
Okay. Got it. Good. Yeah.
We don't do for others because this finance company does not finance for other two-wheelers. It's only for TVS Motor.
Understood.
The portfolio has got other financing products like for used trucks, tractors, cross-sell, MSME funding. All these things are there. It constitutes only 20% two-wheeler. The rest 80%, 20%, 25%. The rest 75% comes from other products.
Understood. Fair enough. Just a question on your BMW collaboration, right? Two thousand thirteen or fourteen is when you entered into a strategic collaboration, and since then, I think we have seen, what, two or three product launches, 300cc or 350 cc from them. I just wanted to understand your thought process on how that collaboration is panning out and what percentage of your revenues is coming through those BMW products as we speak. Any thoughts on that?
I think see, it's more than the percentage. It's the brand rub-off because we see, if we look at BMW themselves, they will be selling about 130,000-140,000 bikes. Of that, 25,000 bikes is from TVS Motor. They are all high priced and they are all 1,200 cc up to 1,800 cc, and some of the prices are even higher than cars. What is most important is the brand rub between these two companies. That is what we need to look at. On the future relationship, I already told you that jointly we are designing and developing a.. I can't give the specs, but it's going to be a cool two-wheeler for the global market. For BMW, they will have their branding and design. We will have our branding, but the platform will be common.
Oh, okay. India will be used as an export hub then for that product, whatever that you're gonna come up with.
Yes. Absolutely. Global market, we are designing the product for them. Not only manufacturing. Designing, developing, manufacturing, and global supply for entire BMW. Same platform we will be using for our own two-wheeler globally. EV two-wheeler globally.
Understood. Question on your product mix. I mean, earlier you mentioned that 33% of the industry is dominated by scooters, right? That will only grow faster than the motorcycles itself because of the product versatility and all that. Are you gearing more of your new product launches towards scooters? I mean, electric, I mean, it's probably all scooters, I would say. The share of scooters will go up higher than the motorcycles, right, going forward. Just t rying to understand. Yeah, so just to complete my question. I'm trying to understand the realizations between the margins between scooters and motorcycles, which is higher and can you give any ballpark estimate of how..
We first of all, we don't give that product level guidance. I think what is most important is every product has to make healthy margin.
Sorry?
Every product has to make healthy margin.
Right. Right.
Where if you have to grow now about 10% EBITDA, you can't discount any brand.
Right.
We are very clear about that. What I have seen is, for example, I can give you one simple example. When we started Jupiter, we only had a base version. Okay. Say base version, the price is, let us say INR 50,000. Then we came up with variants of ZX, Classic. Okay? They are even higher than our competitor. Our competitor, the best competitor is Honda. Okay. But they have features, they have, elements of, certain connect with the customer which are far, far superior. If this base version is INR 50,000, these versions are INR 55,000, INR 60,000, INR 65,000 also. Okay?
Right.
Today, I can give you more than 50% of the customers buy the variants with far higher aspiration and price.
Understood. Just a question on, I mean, goes back to something earlier that you mentioned. Before demonetization, 50% of your customers used to buy motorcycles with cash, right?
The cash means they are all legal cash. See, in the rural part of the country, see, cash is something which is, this is legitimate cash.
Yes, yes.
Not that.
Understood. How that has changed to what?
No, everything is demonetization because of demonetization.
Yeah, everything is.
Yeah, yeah.
Okay.
There's no cash transactions.
Right. Right.
We have to stop at one or two questions. We have one meeting at 11:00 for both of us.
Oh, all right. I think I've covered most of the questions. Just, I mean, on the broader level, if I understand, I mean, you want to grow higher than the industry 10%-12%. I mean, that will be achieved this year.
The 10%-12% you are saying, we are not commenting on the industry projected growth this year. What's going to happen for industry growth, there are other factors that are involved.
10%-12% is a CAGR, whatever we have seen in the industry.
Yeah. Just to clarify, not for this year per se for the next two to three years. I mean, the industry is probably looking at 10%-12% now that the things have stabilized and all the macro issues are gone. You'll be doing better than that. Market share gains will continue. On the margins, I mean, you are at double digits. With the operating leverage benefits, everything kicking in because of the volumes are better than the industry and the premiumization three-wheeler mix and all that will only slightly improve going forward.
Directionally, it will be up on upward trajectory. I don't want a number per se on that. I mean, if I have to factor things in my mind, I mean, like, okay, I mean, greater than 12% on the top line, and bottom line, because of the margin improvement and all that, it should be around 20% or so, CAGR terms. I mean, not for FY 2023, going forward. Is that a fair assumption?
No guidance. I think you are intelligent.
No, no, I understand, sir. I don't want any numbers. I mean, I just. My team will ask me, like, what.
No, you can do the math. Otherwise, what you have summarized it correctly. Our aim is to grow ahead in the industry. Our aim is we have demonstrated in the last four, five quarters about our EBITDA journey, and that will grow because they're all sustainable actions taken. It's not confined to a week or a quarter.
Right.
Therefore, we feel that directionally we will grow. That's all I can say. I can't comment anything.
No, no. Yeah, I completely understand.
Last point I wanted to also highlight you, whatever we are doing inside the company, we are doing with the distributors also. We have the leanest stocks with our distributors. They pay cash and carry and take the material, both in domestic .
They don't have any models. There's no credit given to our dealers.
No credit. There is no credit from the company.
You can't push. Whatever is sold is retailed.
Understood. Got it. Just one more question. I'm sorry.
These are a unique model not seen in the industry.
Understood. Sorry if I can just squeeze in one more question. Recently, I mean, we noticed that management change, right? Venu Srinivasan and now it's Sudarshan Venu.
There's no management change because of the regulatory recommendations. That the relative cannot be the Chairman and the Managing Director cannot be relatives. Sudarshan is the Managing Director. Mr. Venu Srinivasan was the earlier Chairman.
Right.
The law recommended, though it is not mandatory today, Chairman and the Managing Director should not be related. The Executive Chairman and the Executive Managing Director should not be related. That was a recommendation. It is not a mandatory one. SEBI has postponed it now. We wanted to implement, our chairman wanted to implement. Therefore, Mr. Ralf is now the Chairman. He's a non-Executive Chairman of the company. Mr. Venu Srinivasan is the Chairman Emeritus and the Managing Director, and Sudarshan Venu now is the Managing Director. The law permits two Managing Directors, therefore, they continue to be the two managing. There's no change overall.
Understood. He's still actively involved in the business, right? Okay.
Very active. There's absolutely no change in the. All, there's no change.
All right. I'll sum it up then. I mean, thank you so much for your time. I mean, can I? I mean, give you a card or something? I mean, because the next time I don't want to use a broker to set up the meeting, I can directly reach out to you.
Yeah. You have Jaipreet's number, my secretary who met you now.
Oh, I can take down. Okay, I'll take down.
Yeah, yeah. He'll come out. I'll give my card also. You can reach out to him. He will coordinate and organize.
Understood. Perfect.
Anytime, next time when you are coming, make sure that you can spend a day in the factory. You can see. Seeing is believing.
Factory visit is important.
Oh, sure. I'd love to. I mean, 10 years back was when I went to your Hosur plant. I mean, now I think it.
No, it's a different plant now.
It's a different plant.
You can't very much.
Right.
It's very different.
All right. Thank you so much for that invitation, brother.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you for your time. Yeah. Wish you all the very best. I mean, yeah.
Thank you.
No, no. Take your time. No, no.
Oh, okay.
My son Anurag will join now. We have a call.
It's a investor call again?
No, no. It's a family call. Sorry. Take care. Sometimes some days are extremely packed. Today is one.
No, no.
I started at 8:45 A.M.
Last time, sir, I mean, I used two brokers for a meeting. They weren't able to get a meeting with you.
No, the problem is, you know, no, it's not their fault. Sometimes, only we both have a policy of meeting the investors or the potential investors.
Understood.
It depends on our availability also.