Ladies and gentlemen, today I welcome to United Breweries Limited Q4 FY23 earnings conference call hosted by Investec Capital Services. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in a listen only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. If you need assistance in the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Harit Kapoor from Investec Capital. Over to you, Mr. Kapoor.
Yeah, thank you, Andrew. On behalf of Investec Capital Services, I'd like to welcome all the participants to the call, as well as we'd like to thank United Breweries management for giving us this opportunity to host the Q4 FY 23 earnings call for United Breweries. From the management with United Breweries, we have Mr. Radovan Sikorski, Director and CFO, as well as Mr. Robin Achten, who's part of the business control investor relations. I'll now hand over the call to Mr. Radovan for his opening comments, after which we'll take Q&A. Over to you, Radovan.
Thanks. Thank you. Yes, good afternoon, everyone on the call, and thank you for joining. Today we will discuss quarter four and full year 2023 results of UBL. I'm here together with Robin, after the opening comments on our results, we are of course happy to take some questions. I will start with the highlights of Q4. Volume growth of around 3% in the quarter, you know, driven by Telangana, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan. We faced some market, route to market headwinds during quarter four as well. The volume growth, you know, excluding some of that, was around 17% for the quarter.
The premium segment, you know, again recorded growth ahead of the total portfolio, which is nice to see, growing around 19% in the quarter, driven by Heineken, Kingfisher Ultra and Ultra Max, which is all nice to see. Mid sales were up, you know, in the region of 3.5% with healthy pricing around 5%. With some of the positive premiumization coming through in mid sales as well. Quite a bit of check lift there, again, by the negative state mix. Price increases have been taken across multiple states, you know, we have a continued commitment in driving revenue management activities. We are putting much more effort behind that, you know, we see some fruits coming out of that going forward as well.
Gross margin under pressure, as I have said before, for quarter four, that would come, you know, that's really coming through the cost of sales, barley and the packaging materials. The decline versus quarter three, you know, we spoke that pressure would continue, was slightly more, but that was primarily also because of the state mix effect. The state mix effect was slightly higher than we thought, therefore, you know, slight decline in the GT margin. On the EBIT margin, you know, mainly driven by that gross margin, you know, that was the key drive on that front. In terms of highlights for the full year. You know, a fantastic 31% growth.
Again, showing that category really coming back and actually, 2023 March year ends was the highest volumes, we have sold both, in terms of if you look back historically, which is, which is great to see. The premium segment grew close to, you know, 50%, strong mid sales growth as well, supported by the pricing, but of course impacted by the negative state mix. With, the margin decline for the full year, again, don't need to repeat the inflationary pressure, but we also saw some fixed cost leverage, in that. That was mitigated some of that negative impact. In terms of, you know, the board meeting, the board proposed a dividend of seven and a half rupees per share.
Although, you know, that amount is slightly lower than last year, also, you know, last year we had quite high tax positions, but still, you know, it's harder to tie than in previous years. It really shows our commitment to shareholders to really believe in the long term category of this business and the resilience of our business going forward. I think that is nice to see. In terms of the final, you know, the outlook, you know, nothing really changes from that perspective. You know, we believe in further building category growth, driving premium through our portfolio, Heineken, so the, you know, Kingfisher Ultra family. We will continue on that journey. In terms of the inflationary pressure on our cost base, well, that will continue in the near term, like I've mentioned.
Of course, we see some light at the end of the tunnel as we get to the back end of the year as well. You know, we will continue with our revenue management initiatives and of course, you know, have really a cost mindset in terms of managing our cost base. You know, overall remain optimistic on the long-term growth potential of the category, increasing disposable income, favorable demographics and premiumization. With that, I will conclude. I think, yes, we can move to Q&A.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question can press star 1 on your touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star 2. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Please limit your questions to 2 per participant. If you have more questions, we request you to get back in the question queue. The first question comes from the line of Latika Chopra from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question was on the demand front. You know, as we enter the quarter, 70% volume growth ex Tamil Nadu. I think growth was very healthy. As we approach the quarter, did you sense any adverse impact from, you know, unseasonal rains for some, lot of other consumer customers are calling this out. Do you still see that as a risk for the, summer quarter? Is it summer quarter?
You're saying moving into quarter one of this year, yes?
Yes.
Yes. The weather was has been having an impact, particularly in the north. Definitely. We see that. It's putting some pressure on what we're seeing in some of the volumes. Well, that concern is there, for sure.
art was, uh, you know, other than the weather impact, and if you look, underlying consumer spending behavior is fairly healthy in your view. And how is market share progressed for United Breweries, including or excluding the Tamil Nadu piece
In terms of consumer, we're not seeing any impact. It's really too soon to tell. We're still confident behind that, you know, and we're seeing the strong premiumization as well. We're seeing, you know, that disposable incomes must be playing a role there as well. At that moment, I feel, you know, that I don't see it really any issue in that respect. In terms of your question on market share, yeah, we have come under a bit of pressure in our market share, excluding Tamil Nadu. We have lost, you know, low single digits share. Again, you know, you probably know even better than me, you know, how volatile these market shares can be across the different states, also depending on supply from interstate supply, et cetera.
You know, I wouldn't put too much reading into that at this point. I think we need to look at it from a more longer-term perspective.
Sure. The last question I had was on, you know, raw material inflation. You said this was, this might remain a headwind in the near term. If I recall it correctly, you know, last time we spoke about the high cost barley inventory probably being getting exhausted by Q1 of the current fiscal. Is that the same situation that is true right now? We are increasingly finding some fresh barley crop in India, the prices seem to be moderating. I guess you would be procuring the fresh barley. Any color on incremental input cost inflation, particularly for barley and for glass? Assuming the stake mix remains constant as before, would it be right to say that Q4 was bottoming out of glass margin?
Yes. In terms, rightly said. I mentioned it in the last call that quarter 1 is going to continue being difficult for us, right? In terms of margins. Hopefully the weather picks up a little bit and I think there are some green shoots in that in terms of the volume side. The pressure on margins in Q1 will continue and we should start seeing some benefits flowing through in quarter 2 as we start, you know, incorporating the new barley crops into production. The current status on the barley in the market, it's a good crop. Quality is good. Some issues with moisture as it's been raining quite a bit, as you rightly said about the weather conditions. It has been raining more in those northern parts in the Rajasthan area.
There is moisture in the barley, but it seems to be that the crops are still good. In terms of pricing, it's sort of more or less in line to what we thought. That there is, you know, pricing keeps coming down versus what we had in the past. That's good to see.
Sure. Thank you so much, and I'll wish you the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes on the line of Nilesh Shah from Moon Capital. Please go ahead. The line of Nilay has disconnected. I'll promote another one. It is Krishnan Sambamoorthy from Kotak Securities.
Thanks for the opportunity. My apologies, I joined a bit late. The question has been answered, I think. Can you give some color on your market share trends in the past couple of quarters? Have you managed to maintain market share or are you losing market share both in the premium segment as well as mainstream segment? That's my first question.
Like I said in the previous call, we have come under a bit of pressure in the market share overall, you know, very low single digits. Again, like I mentioned to the previous question, I wouldn't read too much into it. Like, you know, there is volatility in market share across states when we try and consolidate across the whole of India. You know, that's the way we look at it. In terms of premium market share, I believe we are broadly flat in terms of the growth. Maybe, you know, excluding route to market share, I would say broadly flat. Yeah. As you know, it's not that easy to gain exact market share. That's the way we see or how we are varying in the market.
I would say we're broadly flat.
Understood. That's helpful. If you've not already answered, can you give us some color on what's the impact of Telangana lost volumes on a year-over-year basis and what's your strategy for those markets? If you answered, I'll listen to transcript please.
Yes. I've mentioned in the transcript, I said that, you know, in some of the route to market segments, we had a growth of around 17% in the quarter. You know, on, on Tamil Nadu, we've seen some positives coming through for summer in terms of volumes. Actually a shortage of capacity as well. We are cautious in terms of saying if that will continue, but it looks like, you know, for the next couple of months we see, you know, increased demand for volumes, which is nice to see. Whether that will be permanent, I cannot say at this time as we work through, you know, improving the situation there.
You know, we continue with the same route to market model as we said, that with the changes we made using our own sales force, and we stick to that. There seems to be a bit of positiveness coming out now with the summer, and we will monitor that.
Sure. Thank you for your time.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Nilesh from Envision Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you. I hope I'm audible. My question is essentially on the market shares. You gave us color on that, but just thinking about 1 state on which we get data on a regular basis, Karnataka, which is generally the state where you've been very strong in the past. There's been a significant market share loss out there. Can you give some update as to what really is happening in that particular CC?
In Karnataka, yes, we have lost some market share, to be honest. You know, there has been some dynamics there in terms of the growth of what we would call the economy segment, particularly driven by Parle-G. Now that is growing quite a lot in the market. You know, we have also introduced Goodday in that sort of segment. We are bit careful of being driving that volume growth, right? We feel that that is not good for the total category. We have lost some share there. You know, we're gonna work our way through that and see how it goes.
You know, in Karnataka as well, as you know, the elections are coming through, there is quite a bit of, you know, volatility in the market of supply. We've had some, you know, administrative issues around dispatching. That has complicated things a bit. You know, next week, as you know, it's gonna get a bit more difficult. Hopefully, you know, as we get through that, we can get back on track again.
Okay. The second question essentially is, on this part that, you know, you've been trying to focus on the premium segment, which obviously is good from a high margin perspective and good for UBL from a long term perspective. In the near term, how do you balance the volume growth versus what your aspirations are from a long term perspective for the premium portfolio? Which is to say that when your sales force is going through, into the outlets, how are they incentivized to drive volumes versus mix versus just overall growth for the business?
I'm not gonna go now into details of the sales incentive scheme, but of course, you know, it's a combination of the two. The pull from the consumer and the push that we do. You know, we do incentivize sales to focus on premium as well, but importantly, not to take the eyes off Kingfisher, which is the bread and butter of our business still, right? It's the right balancing act, I would say, right, in managing that. You know, by trying to build the brands, through digital, through media, and, you know, respecting the regulatory environment, we build consumer pull, we get the traction, and we see nice traction coming through actually for the Heineken Silver brand. And that's how we do it.
It needs to be a, you know, game of patience. I think that is key for us. You know, it takes a long time to build a brand, you know. If you look, what Heineken has done in markets like Brazil, it's taken many years, we can see that at the end of the day, there's huge opportunity for us.
Got it. That's clear. Just one small detail on the input cost, which you spoke about, through your earlier question. Given that the volumes, arguably are lower than what we would have envisaged as we went into the season period, and, you know, now we have certain issues with the weather conditions, the volumes for next quarter are also slightly uncertain at this point in time. Would it be then fair to say that the volume which we've procured will probably go through till the end of Q2, given the lower than expected volumes that you've witnessed?
That's a good question.
Although-
That's a good question. Of course, I'm also grappling with that. I'm still confident that, you know, that we will continue to have good volumes. To your point of, you know, if we have muted volumes going into the next couple of quarters, which hopefully won't be the case, then that would be an impact. 100%. I cannot deny that that would impact. Yes.
Got it. Thank you very much for the same.
Thank you. Next question comes on the line of Krishna Sambamurti from Nimble Bank. Please go ahead.
Earlier when you mentioned that gross margin pressures are likely to persist in Q1, were you talking about both material cost pressures as well as trade mix being unfavorable?
Yeah, I mean, the trade mix. It's difficult sometimes to make the call, you know, because the trade mix was a little bit stronger in quarter four than we expected. It was slightly. It could continue not to the same extent potentially. What we are doing, however, is ensuring or, you know, through revenue management activity, is to try and push more and more pricing also in those states that have an impact on trade mix. That is key focus for us, you know. We are looking at other states where we could potentially take price as well, and that will help us in that respect.
How many months of barley did you have inventory at the end of March, and how much do you have currently? Would you be able to share that data given that you'd be typically procure barley for the seven, eight months of the year during the season?
We had quantities higher than what we had in March 2022, right? The reason behind that was that we needed to be slightly more conservative as we moved into 2022 and the back end, because if you recall very well, the barley crop wasn't good in 2022. At the same time, volumes were coming way above expectations. Like I said at the beginning of the call, if you look at the full year volumes, it was a record year for us, which is fantastic also for the category. When you saw that coming through, you know, as we were progressing through the year, we made the call that we need to procure more.
At that stage there was also the pressure around Ukraine and barley crops, combination, the volatility. Therefore, you know, there was a more conservative outlook on that. Our crops are higher. How much more? I cannot quite clearly see at this point. Yeah, that's basically the answer to that.
Okay. Have you been supplementing your inventory significantly over the last month or so?
Have we been... Sorry, what?
Increasing your barley inventory.
Now, we are working to, you know, to get the new crop in. We already started purchasing new crop. You know, we are in the markets and we are sourcing. That's happening, yes. Of course we still have the old coding.
Just one more question on the other component of your raw materials. While Q1, the higher proportion of bottles would still mean that, any adverse effect of like from an efficient perspective, your bottling cost can come down. Do you see bottling costs being high for a few months and therefore a risk to your Q2 numbers and beyond that? Or do you see some type of reduction there?
The pressure on the bottling is still there in pricing. We still see Q1 bottling pricing is, will be an impact particularly into Q2, on the bottles. It's more the barley that I see the sort of, you know, the improvements. On the bottles the pressure is still there because of the supply in the market. I think we are working through that with our large suppliers. I think we, you know, we are much more looking now into the medium to longer term, that we are in much better position and control of our pricing.
Would you be in a position to guide? Sorry.
On top of that, I think I mentioned it also in my previous call, there's a lot of focus on us, on the, you know, on the returnability of the bottles. To get that returnability improvement. That's what the team's working on. It's not an easy process, right? Because it's a complex infrastructure of bottle collections, you know, through the different S one, S two, S three sort of layers that we operate through. I think there's more that can be done there. That of course helps a lot, and it's also great for sustainability. You know, it's got a double impact for us, double positive impact. It's just, you know, some of these things just take a little bit of time. It needs structure, it needs thinking through.
We see opportunities there as well.
Okay. Would you be the person to guide us in when do we expect this impact to come down, Q2, Q3, realistically?
It's a bit difficult for me to say that now. you know, in terms of bottles, I still see the pressure continuing there. On the bottles I think We can take more of the benefit of the barley than that the bottles are constraining us. On the bottles I see it more as being much more effective in terms of bottle returns. That's what we need to also focus on.
Okay. Just on a follow-up on that, typically, if I'm correct, the market bottles proportion would be about 70%-75%. From a 4 or 5-year perspective, what do you expect that number to be?
Yeah, it's, you know, it's estimates. I'm not gonna go through those estimates. We wanna improve on where we are and how we came out of COVID. There has been some improvement already, but I'm still not happy with it. I still want the teams to, you know, to work more on that, to focus on that. For me it's, yes, it's all about profit as well in terms of efficiency, but also the sustainability agenda for us.
Understood. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Ajay Thakur from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to understand the competitive intensity. Given the fact that even the new players are kind of seeing increasing share or increasing revenue, which is much faster than the rates. Can we expect that in the medium term, our market share to be at threat from the current levels?
If our market share would be, sorry?
Our market share would be under threat in the medium term from our current levels with the competitive intensity rising from the newer players.
No. I mean, look, Kingfisher is, has a very strong brand presence in India. I think our premiumization strategy is also going in the right direction. Competition is healthy in India, and as we've always said, there is a lot of opportunity for category growth. I mean, we just need to focus on doing the right things, you know, in opening up new occasions for the brand Kingfisher and for our premium portfolio. I think if we do the right things, we can, you know, keep our market share or grow our market share actually in certain stripes and, you know, really go premium because where we feel we are under indexed. That, that would be nice to see and that is the focus to bring up premium options.
Second wanted to understand what would be the mix of bottles and barley for us in terms of the raw material costs? If I were to look at in terms of this correction in the barley cost, will we get the benefit of the whole of the correction in the barley cost, you know, whenever we exhaust our current inventory?
Yes, we will get the full benefit when we exhaust the full inventory. That's definitely the case. Hopefully we can exhaust it as quickly as possible, to be honest, right? That would be the case. In terms of the mix cost, I've given quite a lot of information already on that from the previous question. In terms of the bottle strategy and barley pricing. Maybe you could just get that from the transcript as well. Yeah, it covers that.
Okay. Thanks. Thanks, Mark.
Thank you. Next question comes on the line of Chinmay Gander from Canara HSBC Life Insurance. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for taking my question. Just on the gross margin, you mentioned that margin is attributed to state mix, especially the Q-on-Q decline. It's a country decline. Can you help to understand, like, which are the specific states which would have resulted into negative impact within those statements?
You mean in quarter four, yeah?
From quarter three to quarter four.
Yeah. So, so, you know, we're getting really strong volume growth out of states like, Telangana and Rajasthan was also strong despite, you know. Yeah, well, not actually despite. Actually Raj it was strong. You know, I think going into the back end of March, there was some weather impact already I think. Yeah, I think those states in the north, you know, and Telangana had some impact on the state mix. The growth exceeded what we thought of it, you know.
You also mentioned that basically you are trying for price increases in these states, which has impacted you negatively. Have you got any hike in any of these states since, I mean recently? What kind of quantum hike will be required over there?
We got some nice price increases in Rajasthan, in, you know, in March. Robin, I can't remember exactly how much the percentage was.
Double digits.
Yeah. It was double digits, though, price increase. We had a nice price increase coming through there. We are looking at opportunities also in some of the other states I mentioned. Yeah.
Yeah. You also mentioned for Telangana. Since Telangana we would have obviously filed for the price increase. I mean, is there a set timeline to in which we will get a response as to whether we get it or not get it? I mean, how is that?
I'm really sorry, I didn't understand the question that you want.
Sure, sure. In Telangana we would have also filed for price increases. Is there a set timeline which the state has in which, say, in 1 month we will get some certain time period we will get a notification whether we get it or we don't get it?
Well, we are in the process of discussions on that one. You know, we are hopeful to get that price increase also in Telangana. You know, I think our case is quite clear of why we want these price increases due to the strong inflationary pressure our business is on. You know, the officials understand our views. You know, we are open, really open in these discussions. Hopefully, you know, we can get it. They need to do their work to understand it, which is understandable. You know, we are really pushing for it and that would be very nice if we could take that through.
Lastly my question is, on Tamil Nadu. Because of the change in the route to market, we have lost our presence over there. I mean, do you have a target or a guidance or a path wherein we plan to, say, recover at least 50%, 60% of the market which we lost? I mean, can you mention on that?
Okay. Like I said in the previous call, we changed the route to markets to the way we believe, you know, we wanted to try with our own sales, et cetera, of course. Like I said at the beginning of the call, we see some positives coming through for... which is now going into the summer season of orders coming through for May and June. I wanna be cautious on that, in terms of if this is for the longer term or not. It's nice to see that that's happening, you know. We can see also, you know, some excitement at the brewery with this is happening. I'm just cautious of if this is the long term.
Like I said, you know, we continue doing our efforts, to try and, you know, get the volumes. Thank you.
But ambitiously, I mean, should we expect at least a 50%, you know, recovery in that market, in terms of the lost volumes, say, in a year's time or would that year too? I mean, can you just broadly hint us on that?
Like I said to you, I'm cautious at the moment. We're doing what we can. There is some positives coming through for the next couple of months. You know, I cannot really say, at this time. You know, we're working through our way through that, I don't know.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Chanchal from Batoti Sowet.
Hello, am I audible?
Hello.
Hi. Good day.
Hi.
Yes.
Thank you for the opportunity. Just firstly, Rishi has been released from pay. In terms of management change, new CEO, you can talk anything about it?
Yes. Yes, you know, his announcement came a few months back. As you know, he decided to, you know, try, you know, to do something different. He's just given me a lot more work unfortunately, but okay. In terms of the CEO search, we are in the process. We are a lot closer, that is good news. Hopefully we can come to the conclusion of that, you know, in the, in the near term. That's basically what I know at this stage. Much closer to the decision, as we work through that, you know. As Heineken also works through that with DBM.
Sure. Near term would be, two to three months, I assume.
Well, hopefully even sooner than that. Yeah, that could be, I think, you know, the worst case scenario is two to three months. Maybe next week. I cannot really give a date at this point in time. Yeah. I should know over the next few weeks a bit more.
Sure. Second question is how big was Tamil Nadu for us in terms of million cases, if you can help us understand?
I think we've discussed this. You know, it was sort of half single digits, in terms of volumes in the past. Yeah. I mean, yes, it has an impact. Like I said, you know, the different countries.
Two, three years back, if I assume, or three years back, how big was Tamil Nadu? How big is Tamil Nadu in terms of beer market, roughly approximately help us understand.
Well, I mean, you know, it was around 7-8% of our total volume, so you can just figure it out.
Sure. 7%, 8% of the volume. Thirdly, in terms of operating profit per case, do you internally look at operating profit per case state-wise, or how does the your profit and P&L account work? Because each state profitability is mixed and you have called out in your results that because of the state mix, your profit is not superior. Do you look at operating profit per case on various state, internally?
Yes, we do. Yeah, we do.
What's the.
Internally when we go into more details of the business, we do. You know, we look at India of course as a total, and also each business, you know, alcohol and soft drinks in our segments. We also, you know, for internal purposes, of course we look at per case, per state as well. Per brand, per SKU, as well, you know. Small bottle, large bottle, can, etc. Of course, per case. We go into that sort of detail. Correct.
Sure. What's the cutoff of operating profit per case and below that operating profit per case you must operate in a state or it's not good to operate in a state? Do you focus on volume only?
No, definitely, you know, just focus on volume. Not at all. You know well that certain states are more profitable than others, you know. You know, we're a scale business. Kingfisher is a national brand. It's the most national brand, beer brand in India. We wanna keep it that way. We have to make the right calls and do the right revenue management activities so that we can grow profitability in the states that there is lower profit over time. That's why, like I said, in terms of the state mix where we have some negative impacts, we try and focus our revenue management activities also around there of how we can extract value. Of course, you know, we are in a regulated pricing environment in some states.
You know, as we work through it and we have the discussions, around it and we show that we have inflationary pressure, you know, we can have a good conversation around it and to try and drive price.
Sure. Let me ask you again. I'm just trying to, basically do you have a benchmark operating profit per case which you can share with us, which you look at or?
That is an operating margin. How do you look at statewise?
You know, look, I'm not, I'm not gonna share these type of details, in terms of per case, et cetera. We have that information, but that's information that's internal that, you know, that we do not share externally.
Sure. Thank you. I wish you all the best. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Prashwail from Bara Capital, Prashwail.
Hello.
Yes, good afternoon.
Yeah, good afternoon. Hi. Sir, we have heard about the operating environment and the scenario and the possibilities of how the operating metrics will pan out maybe. Just to get a sense on some of the strategic initiatives or, I mean, how are you planning out what kind of some color on the strategy that you're looking to, you know, kind of come back or maybe improve in terms of the overall performance and something, some color on that would be really appreciated.
You mean overall?
Yeah. From a broader perspective, yeah.
Well, you know, our strategy really hasn't changed to what we've been saying. You know, for us, you know, we continue on the, you know, on the same track in terms of, you know, category penetration, you know, playing our role as the market leader to grow the category in a responsible manner. That's important for us. There's a lot of opportunity to grow in a responsible manner, to premiumize, to look at more occasions for the category. We are now looking much more and more on innovation, internally to build an innovation funnel and to take more risks with innovation as well. You know, that continues. We look at our footprint in terms of, you know, where we have our breweries.
We've got a healthy footprint, we can also improve on it in different areas so that we can serve the market better. We look at also our, you know, our HKU performance, bottles, cans, and what is the consumer looking for. That is overall, you know, how we, how we continue to look at the total category. As a leader, you know, we take responsibility of that as well to do it in the right way and to also ensure that we look at our sustainability agenda in the right way as well, which is very important for us in the planet.
Got it. That's helpful. In terms of the premiumization which you are talking about, how are you looking to make that premiumization mix higher? What are you, I mean, going to do to promote that or something from maybe Heineken's perspective as well?
With Heineken, we are really focused on certain states. You know, that's important for us. We wanna really embed into certain states and to grow the brand and expand the brand step by step. There's not an all up India launch because then we lose focus and it's not good for the brand. That's, that is the approach. It's also important for us that we manage the profitability, so we try and, you know, in the place where we grow Heineken, that we have the right footprint and the production for the brand. We work through those things as well. In terms of the Kingfisher family with Ultra Max, same thing.
You know, we find that there's really pockets in India where we believe that there's a lot of opportunity for Ultra and Ultra Max, but then sometimes we just don't have the footprint or production there, and therefore then the profitability grows, you know, to move volume into the state. All these types of things we are working through, and, you know, to really focus on that premium and drive profitability and premium.
Got it. Got it. Can I ask you just any sense if you could give, is there any possibility of a staking fees from the promoter side coming through? Something like that?
Which side?
promoter stake. If there's a possibility of a promoter stake being promoter staking fees coming through or something.
I'm trying to actually understand the question. Sorry. Promoter stake.
Sir, the stake from the promoter in the company, is there any possibility to buy back their or the a share increase from the promoter? Is what I'm asking. What is the color on that?
You mean from the majority shareholder?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
No, not that I'm aware of. Not that I'm aware of. There's no plans like that.
Thank you. Please follow for the more questions. Next question comes from the line of Prashant Putari from Titlet Group Research Lounge. Mr. Ashant, please go ahead with your question.
Yes. My question is on tax savings. What kind of tax savings do you on an average year, and how does that compare with what we might experience in the last three years? Any kind of change in trend?
I don't have that information in front of me, as far as I'm seeing and what we have discussions, nothing really that significant, to be honest. I, you know, that's the way I'm seeing it. Between changes in excise policy and across different states, I haven't seen really any significant increases in excise, no.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Latika Chopra from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks, Ben. Two questions. I wanted to check what is the volume and value share of your premium brands in FY 2023?
The volume share we have around, you know, around 21%-22% or so. We don't really track value, to be honest.
What was this comparable number be in, say, FY19 or before?
It was lower. I cannot recall now. I think it was around. No, I'm not sure. I know we've grown low single digits or mid-single digits in terms of market share. I cannot recall exactly how much that was. We have grown pretty well over the years.
All right. No worries. The second thing I wanted to understand was, you know, I know we are going through this whole steep concentration period. I just wanted to, you know, take on the top half of your... As you look to increase the share of these premium brands, should we expect a disproportionate increase in brand spend? You know, and even if you reach some way normalized gross margin, already margin, you know, will be far more gradual in your view. I'm talking about next 3-4 year period. Also a related question is, I understand you talked about management profitability a couple of times. How in... So are you only looking at market shares and premium brands as the key metric for you? Or, you know, you still care about overall market shares?
You know, you're okay to kind of let go of low margin, trade or brand slash brands in those case and kind of look at, you know, building more of the premium portfolio.
Okay. I'll examine the last question. I'll copy that one. In terms of market share, definitely we are, you know, we are under-indexed in premium, so we wanna grow share there as well. In terms of overall market share, we need to balance that correctly, right? We wanna keep the scale that we have. We wanna ensure that within the mainstream segment, Kingfisher does maintain a strong position, right? We don't wanna lose share within mainstream segment. You know, as premium grows, it does impact mainstream depending on how the total category grows. There can be some shifts there. You know, we also look like you, like you are looking at how much is your share in premium.
We look at it. We also then want to see, you know, as we get better data points, what is our share in mainstream. We definitely do not want to take our eye off Kingfisher. I mean, I wanna make that very clear. Kingfisher is a very important brand for us, and it's a fantastic brand. Like I said was that we look at new occasions for the brand as well. We do extensions on the brand. So it's near to end-to-end, to be honest. You know, under indexing premium, focus on that growth share, not going to lose share on Kingfisher. You know, balance it between revenue management activities and the growth of volume. Have that in mind. It's not at all costs volume growth. 100% not.
Therefore, you know, if you lose, you know, couple of percentages here and there, we're not gonna panic about it, right? Not at all. Sometimes, you know, you might lose 1 or 2% on revenue management activities, so be it. So I think that summarizes.
Got it. Thanks. The last question was on CapEx plans for FY 2024. Anything to share here?
Our plans for 2024 are strong. I think in the region of around, you know, INR 300 crores, if I recall. Around INR 300 crores, if I recall correctly, in that ballpark.
All right. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Hariprasad. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Sudarshan here. 3 quick questions. 1, you had mentioned that, you know, the ex-operating model changes you are expecting from there. Are you only X-ing out Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, or are you also X-ing out Delhi as it had disruptions in the last quarter?
Did you say X-ing out?
Yeah. Are you excluding only Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, when you are excluding operating model changes with 17% growth? Or are you excluding out any other states as well, which had some disruptions in the past like Delhi?
Yeah. In that 17 I also exclude, Delhi. you know, we also are not operating, in Chhattisgarh.
Right. These four markets are out, are outside your operating 57%.
Yes. I've included Delhi, but That's also included in the 18 to 10 part. Yes. Delhi, Tamil Nadu, some impact in AP and Chhattisgarh, yeah.
Got it. The second one was on the price increases. You had 5% in quarter four, which is obviously over the year you've received. Given the, you know, the trend currently, you know, what is the kind of price increase trend on an average, which you believe you can have for fiscal year, you know, 2024? Given the data that you already have in terms of price hikes which you've got. At a weighted average level.
At the weighted average, I'm sort of cautious. You know, let's stick with the digits. You know, that's it. That's the way I... If we can get more, it would be great. You know, as we work through that, you know, the revenue management activities are not just around that, but also, you know, in terms of any trade teams, et cetera, that we try and be more efficient there. Yeah.
Got it. Well done. Just a clarification. You know, in your presentation you had mentioned, you know, the key price increase in Telangana. Was that the old price increase you were talking about in the presentation?
Yes, that was spillover. Yes, because the Telangana price increase in 22 happened sort of, you know, more in the back end of 22, sorry, quarter. That's actually a spillover into this part of the quarter.
Okay. The discussions you're having now are for fresh price increase or, trying to push the things about it? That's what you're trying to say?
Yeah. We're trying to push for a fresh round of increases, you know, driven around the inflationary pressures, yes.
Perfect. That's it from me. Narendra, you can take the last question and then we can close.
Thank you. The last question comes from the line of Nilesh Shah from Moelis & Company. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the follow-up. Just two more. First of all, on Tamil Nadu, when this route to market change did happen, I remember, you know, in our discussion you were told that the company expects minimal disruption from the Tamil Nadu route to market change. Obviously is not the way it panned out. Were you surprised in terms of the, you know, how much it impacted our business?
I do not believe we said that we expect minimum disruption. We actually didn't know what it would be. You know, we took the decision, you know, to change our model where we, you know, use our sales force, et cetera. Yeah, I mean, the impacts have been larger than expected, operating. Therefore, you know, we try and work through that to try and get our volumes back. Like I said, you know, it's summer looks good, but I'm very cautious on that anyway.
Okay.
Yeah.
To me, you know, any possibility of, you know, RCM change in other states? Especially, given that we have a management change which is on the anvil.
At this stage, no. No signs of any other route to market changes. You know, Like I said, we continue looking at it state by state. We look at our footprint, our commercial strategy, we always try and improve what we can. No, nothing really else, at this point.
That's also clear. Just a last one. You know, in terms of this pricing that we've got through fiscal 2023, there would have been a significant shift in the on-premise versus off-premise mix that happened versus last year, given that last year had the COVID impact. Is some part of the pricing also driven by this mix change or this is just pure pricing?
You know, it's just pricing. You know, as you know, the on-trade is quite small actually, in the market, like I've always quoted before. It's just pricing really. There's no, there's no real mixed impact between on and off, put it that way.
Got it. This is very helpful. Thank you very much, and I'll do it.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of question and answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Khalid Kapoor for closing comments.
Yeah. Thank you, Sanjay. Firstly, on behalf of Investec Capital Services, we'd like to thank the management team of UBL to give us this opportunity to host the call. We'd also like to thank all the participants who took the time to join this one. I'll now hand over to Adrian for his closing comments. Over to you, Adrian.
Okay. Yeah, you know, I think just, you know, looking forward, like I said, you know, we continue to, you know, drive value out of the business, in terms of top line and our revenue management. You know, focus on our cost base. You know, we remain optimistic on the long-term growth potential of the industry, like I said before. I think we can all remain positive in that respect. Yes, I look forward to our next call. I wish you all a good afternoon, and I hope all of you will enjoy a nice cold Kingfisher over the weekend. Thank you very much.
Thank you. On behalf of Investec Capital Services, this concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.