Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q2 FY 2023 earnings conference call of United Breweries Limited, hosted by Investec Capital Services. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Harit Kapoor from Investec Capital Services. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thanks, Michelle. On behalf of Investec Capital Services, I would like to welcome you all to this call and a special welcome to the team at United Breweries for the Q2 FY23 earnings call. From the management team today, we have Mr. Radovan Sikorsky, Director and CFO at United Breweries, and Mr. P.A. Poonacha from Finance and Investor Relations. I'll now hand over to Radovan for opening comments, post which we'll open the floor for Q&A. Over to you, Radovan.
Yes, good afternoon, everyone on the call, and thank you for joining. I'm here together with Mr. P.A. Poonacha. Together with him, I will be answering some of the questions later on. And yeah, so just taking you through quarter two a little bit. In terms of volume growth, we had 23% in the quarter this prior year. You know, primarily driven by Rajasthan, West Bengal and Telangana, but you know, really good strong volume performance. The premium segment grew also ahead of the total portfolio, growing 48%. You know, and the total portfolio was around 23%, so a nice growth in the premium segment. EBIT for the quarter was up 58%, driven by volumes, price increase, but softened a bit by negative state mix.
Inflationary pressure on cost of sales continued to impact gross margins, as you can see from the financials, contributing to a decline of about 500 basis points to the 46.7%, and as we have in the financials. Strong revenue growth combined with this cost control though, and you know, drove EBIT margins growth by about 277 basis points. You know, on the next page of the summary table with those quarterly results, you can see that net sales are up like 18%, EBIT up 58%, you know, and a margin of 10.8%. On the regional volume growth, we have seen, you know, strong recovery of volume, as I mentioned, the 23% over the COVID affected prior year across, you know, all markets.
And you know, when you look at the year-to-date results, 67% growth versus prior year across all markets. That is a nice healthy growth. If we look at now, you know, particular regions, the North posted 15% in Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh was also up. The West posted 22% growth driven by, you know, higher volumes in Maharashtra state. I still have to get used to, you know, saying some of these states, but so bear with me. But also in Goa, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The East recorded 52% growth driven by higher volumes in West Bengal, you know. And in the South, we posted 21% growth driven by high volumes in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala as well.
You know, turning to the net sales, this was up 18% in the quarter, driven by the 23% volume growth, as I mentioned, and pricing was up 4%. The negative state mix was around 9%, you know, with differential volume growth across the states and with different levels of revenue. There is an improvement over previous quarter. If we look at the net sales for year-to-date results, you know, that's really healthy. As you can see, with a 67% you know volume growth. Pricing is also quite strong at 6% on the year-to-date data, with negative state mix of around 11%. You know, as I mentioned before, you know, it's this differential volume growth across the states.
You know, if you look at the EBIT breakdown, on the next slide, you have the presentation with you. The gross profit growth was driven by the volume and price increases, however impacted by commodity prices. So that's why you can see the deterioration in our, you know, gross profit margins. But, you know, the strong revenue growth, you know, drove fixed cost leverage. And you know, still good control over our cost base resulted in healthy margins of 1.7% year to date. If we look at, you know, going forward, you know, we continue to be positive about the category, penetration, you know, while at the same time driving share, in our premium portfolio. I think that is key for us.
Inflation pressure on cost of goods sold, you know, will most likely continue in the foreseeable future. You know, bearing on that, we will pursue further price increases, you know, and in combination with cost measures to mitigate any of these impacts. We have good CapEx plans in place for our breweries, you know, to meet expected volume growth going into 2023 as well. You know, we remain optimistic on the long-term growth of the industry. Let's be clear on that one. You know, and the evolving consumer trends, you know, will drive premiumization. So we really still believe in that strongly. That's a little bit my opening remarks. I think we can then pass to the Q&A, and we'll try and answer all your questions. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, given that this call is scheduled for only 45 minutes, I would request all the participants to limit their questions to two per participant. Should you have a follow-up question, please rejoin the queue. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Abneesh Roy from Nuvama Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. First question is, one of your competitors has recently acquired the The Beer Cafe. Does this in any way limit your presence or sales in that retail chain? Globally, is this common that a brand acquires a retail chain also? Would you also have some thoughts on this, longer term?
Yeah. You're talking about the Bira acquisition of The Beer Cafe, right?
Yes.
Yeah. I mean, The Beer Cafe is almost like a restaurant business. I mean, what they do is, it's like a brewpub. And a brewpub is a new concept. As you know, it's less than a decade old, and it is a very small niche segment. As such, it may complement Bira's business, but for our business, we are currently not looking at that space. Because a brewpub business is a very different business. Considering that Bira has limited clout in route to market, I think they're trying to use this as a route to market.
And your presence and sales in The Beer Cafe, does it get impacted in any way doing that?
We are not present in The Beer Cafe retail.
Okay. Sure. Last question is on the gross margin pressure, which is quite common for every company. Essentially, when do you see good recovery here in terms of barley and packaging materials? Globally also, the Ukraine crisis, at least from a raw material availability perspective, things are now resolving. And you also spoke on the price side. When do you see a good recovery in margins? Will it be more FY 2024? H2 will remain under reasonable pressure in terms of margins.
If I understood you correctly, I'm sorry, I'm not hearing very well through the sound. But if I understood your question correctly, you're asking about the commodity prices, for example, like barley, and how do we see that going forward. Is that correct? Yes.
Yes. Yes.
Okay. So you know, sure, as you can see in our margins, there is pressure on our commodities, and I think that's a global phenomenon. I mean, you guys all know about that. We still see some of that continuing going forward. Yes, there seems to be some softening on some of these components going forward, but I think it's still early to tell for us on that one, you know? So I still think the pressures on margins will remain in the shorter term. And you know, it's a little bit our you know, our ability to take pricing and also manage our costs to try and mitigate for any of that.
Sure. Thanks. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Jaykumar Doshi from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, and thanks for the opportunity. Could you provide an update on, you know, some early indicators or response to Heineken Silver launch? How does it compare versus, you know, your earlier launches of Amstel and Heineken Original? Any numbers, any color, you know, that would be helpful.
So it's very early days really because you know, we just launched recently, but we had very good feedback and also responses through social media in terms of the big launch we did in Bangalore a few days back. In terms of distribution and outlets, it's you know, on track. We have you know, selected certain outlets and ranges where we want Heineken Silver to be. That seems to be going very well, but it's a little bit still early to say. You know, the rate of sale seems to be good as well, and repeat buy, but it's still you know, quite small. I think to give you a bit more comprehensive feedback, I think we need a few more months in the market for Silver.
Understand. Do you have plans to launch the product in other states sometime later this year, or it's going to be, when do you intend to take it to other key states?
We are looking at that as well, and we will be doing that. We're looking at how well it's now performing. But definitely there are plans to roll it out to different states as well. That, that's still being discussed where and when we will do that.
Understood. Now you've called out for the first time that premium portfolio grew about 48% volume-wide volumes, but I understand that last year this quarter was impacted, on-trade would have been low. How does this, you know, how does premium volumes in the current quarter compare versus September 2019?
P.A. Poonacha, can you answer that one? I don't know that far back in 2019.
From pre-COVID days to now, the premium sales has gone up. It's gone up from 6% to about 8%.
Understood. That's helpful. Final one, you know, your notes to accounts indicate that, you know, there is no impact in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh because of the changes that you have introduced. I guess, you know, it's almost more than three to four months now. Should we assume that, you know, this is a steady state now and there won't be any disruption in those markets or any adverse impact on volumes? or are you still cautious?
I think it's a bit early still to call that there will not be any impact. So far, there hasn't really been an impact. We are, you know, monitoring that carefully. Whenever you do a sort of route to market change, you know, it takes a while to sort of shake out what, you know, will happen. So far it seems okay in terms of, you know, invoicing and the volumes. We remain, you know, we keep on watching that market, as we progress.
That's helpful. Thank you so much. I'll go back in the queue.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pritesh Chheda from Lucky Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
What is the volume growth on September 2019 base? Second, did we get any price increases between quarter one and quarter two in any of the states? And if you could call out for the blended price increase?
Okay. I heard the first part of the question, so I'll answer that one, and then maybe you can just repeat it because of the bad audio. You wanted to ask about how we are comparing volumes versus 2019. Is that correct? Yes?
Yeah. That's the first question. Yeah.
So if we look at volumes versus 2019 in the quarter, we were slightly down, you know, around 4% versus 2019. It's quite a lot impacted by, you know, Andhra Pradesh in terms of, you know, this policy change that happened there over, you know, repealed about a year ago or so, year and a half. It's impacted by that. If you look at the other states, there's also good growth versus 2019. Still on a year-to-date number, we've grown 3% versus 2019. That's where we are very positive about the category. You know, that's how quickly it's actually recovered and we are back to growth versus a normalized 2019.
That is quite good news for us.
My second question was, did we get any price increase between quarter one and quarter two?
You can see that, you know, the pricing versus quarter one has gone to like 6%. The pricing are going through. We have looked at taking some pricing also in Punjab, so there we have taken, and that's basically the only state as well that we've taken in between the two quarters. Of course, the pricing that we took in quarter one are now flowing through into quarter two, right? Because it was taken at different times within those quarters. That's why we see the increase as well.
What is the incremental price increase that we have got in quarter two in Punjab, or let's say at the blended company level?
Sorry, I didn't hear that. P.A. Poonacha, can you take that one? I didn't hear the question.
Hello. It's about 3%.
3%?
Yeah.
Okay, thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Himanshu from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. First can you outline what will be your market share in current quarter?
Sorry to interrupt, Mr. Himanshu. We are not able to hear you. Can you please switch to your handset?
Sure. Hello. Is it better?
Please proceed.
Yeah. Can you help me? What would be your market share during the quarter and last quarter also? Hello.
I'm sorry, your market share?
Yeah, total market share.
Yeah, the market share is around 51% plus.
Okay. What would it be, sir, in last quarter?
Similar. We don't give the exact number because it's basically done on approximation based on data available. And after the CPI, we don't track market share specifically in uncertain.
Okay.
Any case other than when it is available in the government corporation websites.
Second is, other expenses has gone down on a YOY basis by 3%, and this is despite a 23% volume growth on a YOY basis. And there has also been inflationary pressure on freight, et cetera. What is driving this decline in other expenses during the quarter?
Yeah. As you know that, there have been lot of initiatives, with respect to, cost constraint that, our margins are squeezed because of the inflationary pressures. So the level we are at which is what we'll stand going forward. You can't see anything going better, but the level at which we are in would be what we would see going forward.
There is no one-offs or anything in this particular line item during this quarter?
No one-offs.
Okay. Can you just tell us, sir, what would be A&P spend as a percentage of revenue during the quarter?
It remains constant as a percentage of top line as it was in the last four or five quarters.
Okay. What are the initiatives which are driving such significant decline? If you can just highlight few of them.
Decline in cost?
Yeah, decline in costs in other expenses line item.
Yeah. Like I said, most of our administrative costs is being relooked at, and this is helped us reach a new level which would sustain in that particular level going forward.
Sure, sir. No issues. That's it from my side, and all the best.
Yeah.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Krishnan from Motilal Oswal Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Hi, P.A. Poonacha. My question is on, I again see that, West Bengal and Haryana quarter looking handsomely. Now, in the states like, UP, West Bengal and Haryana because of the differential taxation between beer and spirits, are you also seeing a pickup in the, erstwhile non-seasonal consumption of beer as well because beer is relatively cheaper than spirits in these states?
Yeah. I mean, we are better off in West Bengal than we are in the past because the gap between the pricing of spirits and beer because of the alcohol content has now narrowed down, so we are looking at better time now. But still, spirits are taxed. If you compare alcohol volume by volume, taxed far lower than what beer is. So we can't say that we are fully out of the woods, but we are better off than what we were.
Okay, that's useful. My question was more is the seasonality of beer consumption also reducing a bit, compared to the past in these states?
Seasonality, yes. Like I said, the pricing has put us in a better situation, so the seasonality effect has come down. It will still be there. That's what I was trying to reiterate because still the spirits are taxed at a lower rate when you compare it by alcohol volume.
Okay, that's clear. My second question is on you indicated that the demand is great and also about CapEx plans. Can you just quantify that number for FY 2023 and FY 2024, your CapEx plans?
Yeah, currently we are an operating company of Heineken. Our CapEx plans are done from January to December. For the coming January to December, the CapEx plan would be somewhere in the region of INR 350 crore.
Okay. Yeah, that's informative.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Latika Chopra from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. My question is a little more medium term relevant, you know, welcome to United Breweries. You know, I wanted to just check with you, is there gonna be disproportionate focus to drive the premium part of the portfolio now, which is also witnessing more competition? Does in that process you would kind of put lesser focus on the mass beer segment? The related question is, in that context, how should one think about profitability? You know, UBL had generated almost, you know, 16%-17% operating margins in the past. We are now currently hovering between 12%-13%.
There is a lot of gross margin pressures, but assuming we go back to normalized levels of gross margin, would A&P spends need to increase disproportionately to drive the premium mix, and probably we need to settle with, you know, a more like, you know, mid-teens kind of margins? Or do you think the business over the next three, four years has the potential to go back to those high-teens margins? Any initial thoughts on the way Heineken is approaching the India business now?
Okay. I'll take that one. Thank you for the question. You know, in terms of premium, you know, we can see that there is appetite for premium products also in India. And we wanna be, you know, strong in that segment as a leader also in beer here in India. So disproportionate growth, well, yes, we for sure would like to achieve that. Lose focus on our mainstream, definitely not. I mean, Kingfisher remains the bread and butter of our company and is an extremely important brand for us. So the focus remains. Actually, when we look going forward, we will continue doing strong activities around the Kingfisher brand. So you know, that needs to be clear.
As you know, we also do extensions on Kingfisher, like Kingfisher Ultra, so you know, it's a great brand. In terms of gross profit margins and the impact of the growing premium vis-à-vis the mainstream. So you know, we are looking at driving more margin via premium, but currently premium is still at quite a small scale. So the pricing is there, but because of the smaller scale, you know, we need to work through that in terms of that cost of sales base for the premium to improve those margins. That will come with scale, no doubt about it, and it will help our gross margins. You know, longer term on the gross margins, of course it is our plan to get back to previous levels, and we believe we can get there.
And it's just that, you know, as we know, currently the inflationary pressures across the globe are such that, you know, we are, you know, a bit under pressure with gross margins. And you know, taking prices in India, we try and do what we can state by state, and we will continue. You know, but sometimes it's a little bit more difficult in certain states to take pricing, and therefore, you know, there can be a bit of a delay in catching up on some of those gross, on some of that cost and sales growth.
Sure. No, this is helpful. I want to know, you know, non-gross margin, the other costs, you know, whether it's A&P or whether it's the fixed costs, and so Mr. P.A. Poonacha did refer to some of the cost saving, you know, initiatives. There's a lot of a you know extra costs that you can take away from the system, still? In your view, can it be run even more efficiently? How do you think about that?
You know, well, definitely we can still do more, you know, in terms of that. I think UBL has done, you know, a good job to date on driving costs down. As the previous, you know, comments from P. A. Poonacha shows, you know, the costs have been coming down. There definitely is more opportunities, particularly still in productivity at the breweries, you know, and also bottle returns and these type of things that, you know, we can drive costs downwards. So you know, as I step into this role, and I've only been there for, you know, like four or five weeks, I will be reviewing that as well. I'm sure, you know, when I compare it to other opcos I've been with, there's opportunities for more.
Sure. The last question from me is that, you know, given your experience with different markets, with Heineken, you know, when you look at the per capita consumption level, demographic profile, you know, the constraints that you see from a regulation standpoint, what is a realistic, you know, target for premium share in the overall revenue mix, in your view, in your portfolio? Maybe, you know, five years down the line, can that be, you know, 20%, you know, 30%? What could be that realistic share?
Well, you know, in terms of the per capita consumption, obviously we see a lot of opportunity there as well. And that's why we you know we are in the market and we wanna make sure that the category grows in a good manner. In terms of premium share, you are right. You know, quoting 20%, 25% would be something to aim for in terms of, you know, premiumization in the category. So you know, we can see the trend is there. Like I mentioned, you know, 48% growth in the quarter is excellent. So I think, you know, to get to those sort of 20% mark is definitely achievable.
Great. Thank you so much, and wish you the best in the new role.
Thank you, and hope to meet you soon.
Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pratik Rangnekar from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity, sir. Just one clarification on the volume growth versus peak COVID. When you had called out 8% growth over peak COVID in 1Q, was A&P impact in the base then as well? Excluding A&P, what would be the growth? Will it be possible to call that out, please?
Sorry, I didn't hear that properly. Mukund or Chirag, can you try?
I'll just give you vis-à-vis 2019. In the base used to be 6% of our volume sales. With the drop seen because of the change in policies there, it is down to 3% of our volume sales.
Okay. Got it. Thank you. Just one more question. Usually we complete the buying of barley for the year in advance. Is that now done till the next peak season? How much higher is the purchase price, for say, for this year versus last year?
If I understood correctly, you're asking about how secure is our barley till the end of the year or for this year. Is that correct?
Yeah, that's right. Are we done with the barley buying for the year, and how much higher is the purchase price?
Yeah. So yes, we are secured, of course, for 2022, and we're already looking into 2023 to secure us. Obviously the barley crop will come through only in around, I think it's around March, April next year. And prices have gone up. I mean, you heard my predecessor talking about it, of the price increases that they were there. There's been a slight dip, you know, recently on markets, but the pressure still remains. And the prices are definitely higher than they used to be in previous years. You know, we have secured quite a lot, but there is still opportunity if prices do come down that we can pick up, you know, better pricing, you know, at the back end, and going into the next year.
You know, it's still difficult to tell with these, you know, in these volatile times what's gonna happen. Mukund, anything else you add on it?
I think you've covered.
Okay. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Karan Taurani from Elara Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. My question is around the Heineken Silver launch, which was there. Now, don't you think there could be some kind of cannibalization in the economy premium category? Because Kingfisher Ultra also is around the same price point. Your thoughts on that, please.
Yeah, I mean, it is. I guess you're talking against price points versus Ultra. So you know, the way we approach it, you know, it's also, you know, different consumers choose different brands. You know, Silver is also, you know, quite a bit marked for the younger sort of consumer, sort of the 25-30 category or, you know, 20-30 category. I think we feel that there is a place for both brands in the market, particularly with the fact of, you know, how quickly premium is growing. So the opportunity exists for both brands to work together, you know, in a growing market. So yeah, I'm optimistic for both.
Right. You don't believe growth for Heineken Silver will come at the cost of loss for Kingfisher Ultra or something of that sort? Because is this a way to, you know, kind of. As you said, I mean, you know, very articulate, you are. You told in a detailed manner that, you know, you want to focus on both the brands, Kingfisher as well as Heineken. These kind of strategies can we see this further as well, wherein Heineken is kind of made to stand with Kingfisher in a particular range, and that actually leads to a loss of Kingfisher's market share in the future unintentionally?
I did not hear that properly, unfortunately.
My question basically was that can we see this coming more often in the future as well, wherein you have got, you know, brands of Heineken standing on par with Kingfisher's brands on the, you know, the premium space, which is whether the economical premium or slightly higher premium range, and that could lead to unintentional loss of market share for Kingfisher?
Well, you know, I mean, in terms of absolute percentage share, potentially. Yes, because the premium is growing, but Kingfisher is also playing with its, you know, Ultra brands in the premium segment. The thing is, we are optimistic about the total category growth, right? That is the big opportunity for beer, and Kingfisher as a mainstream brand has a big role to play in there. So I would not be too much concerned about the fact that there is bit of decline on the back of a growing premium segment. If you look at total category, there would be. And you know, when we dissect categories, we then look at our market share growth within those categories. So we look at our market share within mainstream, and we look at our market share within premium, and that is important for us as well.
That within mainstream Kingfisher will not be losing, and within premium, we are gaining share, and the category is growing.
Right. Okay. Thank you. That's it from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vishal Punia from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. So I just wanted to understand or hear your thoughts on the margin profile, operating margin profile of the company for the next 2-3 years, assuming that the gross margins revert back to the 18%-19% levels, and the kind of savings that you're doing currently are sustainable. Would you rather see a better margin profile or would you put all those back into growing the premium portfolio or the other new launches that you do?
So I mean, of course we wanna grow our operating profit margins going forward. I'm not gonna really comment on what we believe the margins will be in two, three years' time. It's a little bit difficult. I mean, we do internally forecast that based on what we know. Like I mentioned, in terms of the gross profit margins, we see the decline. We are aware of that, and we're working with our teams in terms of procuring at the right prices, getting the best prices, securing supply, and also having quality supply. It's difficult to say at the moment how long it will sustain.
Like I said, there could be some shoots of hope, you know, going into 2023. At the moment it's still anyone's guess, in terms of that. Now, again, on the premium versus mainstream, premium should bring in the medium to longer term better margins, right? Because of the price points. We need to work also on the cost part of that in terms of the cost of sales part, get the scale so that, you know, so then that comes. We just need to be a little bit patient on that one. As premium grows, as our scale grows, it can just be very good for our margins going forward.
Okay. Sure. Secondly, any update for the current quarter in terms of Delhi? How's the change in policy or changes in policy impacting the overall environment in Delhi? How is that panning out in Q3?
P.A. Poonacha, maybe you can give a little bit of an update on those changes in Delhi.
In Delhi, effective August 2022, the state government has reverted back to the policy they had prior to November 2021. The previous policy was every manufacturer had to have their own depot within the state of Delhi to bring in the beer and spirit manufactured outside Delhi because there's no product manufacturing plant within Delhi, and then distribute it. In the interim, the manufacturer was allowed to have one super distributor to do the job. Now since the announcement that the state government has made that they'll revert back to the old policy with the open statement that this is only temporary and they will review what needs to be done going forward. With that being the case, with the government making such statements, everything is fluid.
People don't want to invest, so the market is very volatile. We really can't do any kind of prediction with this kind of a scenario.
Understood. Thanks, team, and happy Diwali to the team.
Okay. Happy Diwali to you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this would be the last question for today, which is from the line of Jaykumar Doshi from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. When I look at your volumes in the six months of, you know, first six months of this financial year, it is marginally higher than the same period of 2019. You've called out, you know, that you've gained market share. It implies that overall beer industry volumes have barely grown over, you know, versus pre-pandemic levels in this six-month period. When we look across, other categories, we have seen pent-up demand and much higher growth rates. So why do you think, you know, this category has not seen any pent-up demand at all? Why is it lagging most other consumption categories wherein, you know, prior to pandemic, this category was growing faster than, at least in volume terms, than a few other consumption categories.
So any market study or research around research that you may have done that explains this disconnect?
Right. Like P.A. Poonacha mentioned, yes, in terms of market, we broadly flat, right, year to date. The market we see growing at around 3% in total industry. I think I cannot compare to others because I don't know the facts, but I think, you know, looking at our industry, we also just need to bear in mind the impact that policy changes have on the market, correct. So you know, like I think P.A. Poonacha mentioned earlier, you know, a market like Andhra Pradesh, which was big volumes for us in the past, due to the policy change, there's been a significant decline in the volumes. I think it's, you know, it's in a region of 70%.
You can see, you know, that sort of negates within the categories what is happening. If you look at the other states, you know, if you look at growth rates like in Uttar Pradesh or 48%, Telangana, which is growing at, you know, in the region of, I think it was around 15%, and some of the others as well, we see a lot of opportunity and growth in the category. The thing is you need to just, you know, take into account some of these policy changes and the impact that they have on particular states. We are very bullish, too, about the beer category going forward.
What is the base case growth that you think the category growth should be, should it be like mid-single digit, high single digit, or do you think double digit is also possible? Base case assumption that you work with.
Sorry, Jay. I didn't catch that question in terms of the audio.
Okay. I'll repeat.
Doshi, I would request you to use your handset, please.
Sure. What is the base case assumption for the category growth, you know, is appropriate in your view? What should be the normalized category beer category growth in India, going forward? Should it be 5%, 7% or more closer to 10% kind of volume growth?
It's, if I understand correctly, what do we believe how the category will grow in the coming years? Is that the question?
That is correct. Thank you.
You know, again, that is just assumptions. But we believe that, you know, the growth rates of, you know, high single digits or mid single digits is definitely a possibility and hopefully higher. You know, of course, inflation does play a bit of a role in that. You know, but still, like I said, the category is gonna grow, I am sure. And we think that, you know, that sort of rates of, you know, strong single digits we can see going forward.
Understood. Thank you so much. This is very helpful. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as that was the last question for today, I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Harit Kapoor for closing comments.
Yeah. Thank you, Michelle. On behalf of Investec Capital Services, we'd like to thank the management of United Breweries for taking the time for this call. As well as we'd like to thank all the participants who joined into this call. I'd now like to hand over, you know, to Radovan for his closing comments. Over to you, Radovan.
Yes, thank you. And then, hopefully, you know, next time when we have this call, I will be in Bangalore, and I will have a better audio connection because it has been difficult, you know, calling from London through a mobile phone. And hopefully, I can catch up with a lot of you. Just on closing, you know, like I said, yes, there is pressure on margins, but we as a business, we will manage that, yes, going forward in terms of, you know, what we can do with pricing, cost, etc., and you know, with our brands. We have strong brands in place, so we have, you know, the ability to play and grow the category going forward.
On that, we remain optimistic that the category will continue to grow, there will be premiumization, you know, and that can in the medium longer term just be good for our margins going forward. So yes, that would be my closing remarks. Thank you everyone for joining us, and hope to see you soon in India.
Thank you. On behalf of Investec Capital Services, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.