Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the J.K. Cement earnings conference call for the quarter and half-year ended 30 September 2025, hosted by PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal from PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Darwin. Good evening, everyone. On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, we welcome you to the Q2 and H1 FY2026 call of J.K. Cement Ltd. On the call, we have with us Mr. Ajay Kumar Saraogi, the Deputy Managing Director and CFO, and Mr. Prashant Seth, President of Business Information and Investor Relations at J.K. Cement. I would like to mention, on behalf of J.K. Cement Ltd and its management, that certain statements that may be made or discussed on today's conference call may be forward-looking statements related to future business developments and statements which are based on current management expectations. These statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties, and other important factors which may cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the statements made. J.K.
Cement Ltd and the management of the company assume no obligation to publicly alter or update these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or otherwise. I will now hand over the floor to the management of J.K. Cement for their opening remarks, which will be followed by an interactive Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, Saraogi, sir.
Thank you, Vaibhav. Good evening, and welcome to the Q2 call. The Board of Directors met on 1 November to review the working of the company for the half-year ended 30 September, and also to review the performance for the second quarter. The major highlight: the revenue from operations during this quarter was INR 2,859 crores as against INR 2,410 crores previous year, an increase of 19%. Though it was lower by 10% as compared to the previous quarter, which was the number of previous quarter was INR 3,190 crores . For the six-month period, the revenue from operations was higher by 19% at INR 6,049 crores as against INR 5,070 crores . The EBITDA during this quarter was INR 440 crores as compared to INR 271 crores last year and INR 673 crores in the previous quarter.
For the half-year period, the EBITDA was INR 1,113 crores as compared to INR 746 crores , an increase of 49%. The comparative EBITDA margin for this quarter was 15.9%. Last year, it was 11.5%. Previous quarter, it was 21.9%. For this half-year, it was 19.1%. Last year April-September, it was 15.2%. The profit before tax for this quarter was INR 261 crores as compared to INR 60 crores in the previous year and INR 498 crores in the previous quarter. For the half-year period, it was INR 758 crores as compared to INR 348 crores . The EBITDA per ton for this quarter was INR 902 a ton as compared to INR 639 last year and INR 1,229 in the previous quarter. For the six-month period, the EBITDA per ton was INR 1,075 as compared to INR 830 a ton.
The consolidated financial results: the revenue from operations during this quarter was higher by 18% at INR 3,019 crores as compared to INR 2,560 crores. Though in the previous quarter, it was INR 3,353 crores, it is down by about 10%. For the half-year period, the revenue was higher by 19% at INR 6,372 crores as compared to INR 5,368 crores. The EBITDA during this quarter was INR 447 crores as compared to INR 284 crores in the previous year, INR 688 crores in the previous quarter. For the half-year period, it was INR 1,134 crores as compared to INR 770 crores. The profit after tax for this quarter was INR 159 crores as compared to INR 136 crores in the previous year, INR 324 crores in the previous quarter. For the six-month period, it was INR 483 crores as compared to INR 321 crores.
The earning per share was INR 20.7 in this quarter, INR 16.2 previous year, INR 41.90 in the previous quarter. For the six-month period, it was INR 62.70 as compared to INR 40.20. The debt profile: the gross debt as of 30 September was INR 5,289 crores as compared to INR 5,103 crores, and the net debt was INR 3,139 crores as compared to INR 2,551 crores. The net debt to EBITDA as of 30 September was 1.34 as compared to 1.3 as of 31 March. I would like to brief you on the status of the various projects. We have this project at Panna, 6 million ton. This project is at advanced stage of completion. We have already commissioned 1 million grinding units at Prayagraj in the month of October, and the work on other grinding mill at Hamirpur is at advanced stage of completion.
At the integrated plant also, the clinkerization. The work on the clinker line and the cement grinding is at advanced stage, and all this should be completed by December this year. And 3 million greenfield grinding at Buxar in Bihar should get completed in the fourth quarter between January and February 2026. As regards to the new project, which we have taken up at Jaisalmer, we have already placed orders for most of the plant and equipment. The work at site for the integrated 4 million ton clinker and 3 million ton grinding has already started. The Bhoomi Pujan was done on 5 September. All the major civil and mechanical contractors have been finalized, and the work is in progress, and we hope that this should come on stream in Q2 FY28. We are finalizing the land for both the grinding locations.
It is in advanced stage, and hopefully, the work for both the grinding locations will start sometime by the fourth quarter of this fiscal. We have also initiated 600,000 ton greenfield wall putty plant at Nimbahera in Rajasthan. The Bhoomi Pujan for this plant was also done on 5 September. The orders for main plant and equipment have already been placed. The construction work has started at the site, and it is expected that this project will be commissioned by Q2 FY27. These are the major highlights on the various expansion projects, and we're happy to answer your queries. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to please use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from the line of Harsh Mittal from MK Global. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity.
Sorry to interrupt, sir. You are sounding muffled.
Is it better now?
This is much better, sir. Please go ahead.
Yeah, yes. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question is that what. The other expenses seem to be higher this quarter. Can you guide us that what would be in terms of rupee per ton? You feel that it would be reversed in the coming quarter?
The second quarter, we have taken up the maintenance work of three of the major plants were under maintenance in this quarter. There was some maintenance in the cement mills also. This is the quarter when the major grinding work is taken up. All the annual dealer conferences are held in this quarter, during the lean period, and this is the best time that the dealers expect that all the foreign tours and all are undertaken during this quarter only. Because in the season, they would not like to travel. The expenses of this quarter are higher on this reason. Yes, going forward, on a per ton, this would have an impact of about INR 100 a ton. I think it should, going forward with the higher volumes and the amount being a bit lower. It will have an impact of about INR 100 a ton in the cost saving.
Thank you. Second question. At Karabar last guidance, we were about to receive, we had a run rate of INR 300 crores of incentive per annum, right? Now, given the changes in the GST structure, what is the new run rate you feel for the next two years? With Jaisalmer coming in in fiscal year 2028, how can this run rate change?
See, marginally, this will be lower only in this fiscal. We expect that in the next fiscal, the incentive of Bihar should come in. Overall, from fiscal 2027, we should get the benefit of the subsidy of about INR 3 00 crores. In fiscal 2028, yes, we will have some more incentives partially in the year when we commission Jaisalmer. We have to work out because some of the subsidies in Nimbahera will get, that period would be over. I think going forward, we should expect about INR 50 crores lower in this fiscal. Next fiscal onward, it should be INR 3 00+ crores .
Right, right. My last question, that when we announced the Jaisalmer expansion. We said that we'll be going with 4 million ton of clinker and 7 million ton of grinding. 4 million ton lean split grinding units. So that has not been mentioned in the latest PPT. Any update on that?
No, sorry, it is not mentioned in the PPT, but I have said that we have already acquired most of the land for the split grinding locations. The work on the 2 million ton each grinding in Punjab and Rajasthan should commence in Q4.
Do we expect the commissioning in Q4 FY2028?
See, once we receive all the land, we will get the environmental case clearance. You can't apply for environmental clearance before acquisition of land. Immediately on land, we hope that in this month. By December, we should get one grinding location land will be finalized in this month and the next one by next month. Immediately, definitely one grinding location, we should start work. In the fourth quarter, we are targeting to start work for both the grinding locations in the fourth quarter.
Thank you. These were my questions. Thank you.
Thank you. Participants, to ask a question, you may press star and one. We have our next question from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, a couple of questions. One is, what was the incentive quantum for this quarter? It was around INR 70 crore. Great, great, sir. Sir, secondly, can you update us on Toshali and Saifco, specifically on Toshali? Any update on the limestone, the quantum of CapEx that we have done so far and incrementally how should we look at it? And the same thing on Saifco, basically, how are we looking at?
As far as Toshali is concerned, one, Toshali has now become part. The merger, we have applied for the merger of Toshali, which NCLT approved in this quarter, and it is already the standard role regarding including the working of Toshali. As far as the mining lease is concerned, though we have been trying, we will have to. We are still now. Start of lease without options. It will not be given by the state government. We are still discussing with the record on the long-term arrangement if they agree to supply limestone for a long-term period of 20-25 years at a particular price and with the price mechanism formula, then we can consider any expansion in that region. At this point of time, we are operating, we have already done whatever small CapEx was required in the project.
We are operating the plant, and the capacity is about 0.6 million ton. We hope that we should be operating the plant at 80-85% capacity utilization.
Thank you, sir. As far on Saifco.
On Saifco, also, we have taken, we have launched our brand in the month of August. We did a relaunching, and then we have started the marketing activities in the region. All that has been done in this quarter, in the second quarter. Now we are seeing that the effect of that is visible from October. The sales has already grown in the month of October. The dealers are happy with the brand. We are trying to push or establish our brand in the region, as well as then operate and get maximum output from that plant. Maybe the capacity is, going forward, two-three months would be winter months where we will not get much production. The sale would hamper. Beyond that, we expect that we should be selling around 20,000 tons a month normally from that plant.
Sir, any plans that we have formed up on the expansion over here? Because earlier we had indicated we can increase the capacity.
As of now, we have not firmed up, but we are going to plan to do some modification in the plant so that we can increase by 30% in the existing capacity. As far as possibility of putting up a new line of higher capacity, that is on hold. We are studying that and that we may take a call going forward, but there is no immediate decision on that.
Sir, would it be possible to quantify EBITDA level numbers for both Toshali and Saifco? Just trying to understand. The core business if one had to exclude both this.
No, Toshali work has been done. Toshali aspect when there has been no operating profit so far. We expect that. Going forward. This year, we should end up Toshali maybe more or less as a break even. And even. We should see proper EBITDA coming in from Saifco. Post the season that actually it will come. Major. This year again for Saifco first year because we have. Made a lot of. Expenditure on the brand pool. So. Having spent so much amount on brand pool to Saifco for this fiscal should end up at about zero zero. It will only start making profit from next fiscal.
Sure, sir. This is Ritesh Shah. Sir, this last question I'll squeeze in. Sir, we saw full-page ads of JK Cement pertaining to calcite clay or LC3, I think this was last month. Sir, what are our plans over here? Have you earmarked any specific percentage of our sealed volumes for this? How should we look at the ramp-up over here?
See, we've been trying to work on this. We have been successful in launch on the development of the project. We have launched the project now for various projects and other things. We are doing a marketing effort. We don't have exact numbers as of now, but this is again, it's an opportunity for us, and we'll see how much we can send. This is a new product line. It will be over and above the normal sales.
Sure, sir. Thank you so much for the answers. I'll be on that with you. Thank you.
Thank you. Participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. Our next question is from the line of Pathanjali Srinivasan from Sundaram Mutual Fund . Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. I have a couple of questions. Firstly, our lease distance has kind of increased over the last couple of quarters. So any sense on whether this could reverse from Q3 onwards because our plant commissioning and all of that's happening?
Not from Q3. See, our grinding unit at Bihar will get commissioned in Q4. We would see, because we have to seed that market, and that is why the lead distance is increasing. We would see a real benefit coming out of that. The grinding units, the expansion which we are doing in Prayagraj and Hamirpur, that will also get commissioned. Prayagraj already got commissioned and Hamirpur will get commissioned in this quarter. The benefit of that marginally we will see, but major we will see once we commission the Buxar grinding unit. Today we are seeding the entire Bihar with a five year.
Sir, could you quantify how much it could reduce the cost? As in what would our target be?
About 12-15 km it should reduce.
Okay, okay. Got it, sir. Just one more question. Our power costs look slightly elevated on a per ton basis. Is there anything that's causing this? Is there some bit of a short from. Are we buying any power or anything from outside or something like that?
No, see, the power and fuel cost has gone up because of the increased clinker stock. In this quarter, actually, the cement sales volumes are lower, but clinker production was higher. So the clinker actually stock has built up. That has resulted into the high power and fuel cost. Because of the maintenance, I mean, there was some hit on the waste heat recovery power generation also, which is a low-cost power. These are the two. Whenever the things are under maintenance, the waste heat recovery does not work. Waste heat is the major game for.
Is it possible to quantify what the impacts of this could have been, sir?
See, waste heat. By the closure of a kiln. It is about INR 1,500,000 a day loss. In terms of waste heat power.
Okay.
See, in the cost, I mean, if you see, there is a main impact of, say, INR 10 crore-INR 12 crore. On that account.
Okay, sir. Got it.
Balance is because of the stock position. It's about INR 30 a ton.
Okay, okay. Got it, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. To ask a question, you may press star and one, ladies and gentlemen. Our next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the regional sales split, if you can provide for 1HF 2026 in terms of north, central, east, south. What is there in this?
The major increase has been in terms of south and central India. The north, the growth is at par. North is flattish at about the market, about 5%-6%. The major, because last year our south plant in Q2 was under maintenance and the sales were quite low. One, because of that low base, we see a major increase in the south sales. Then definitely the central is growing. This is where the expansion has been. The company has made investment, so that market is already growing. The major growth is coming from growth in central and south.
Sir, but could you just quantify something? I mean, ideally, if you can just give a market split, if you can.
We're not here sharing the market split.
Okay, okay. Central would still be growing in what, mid-teens or something? I mean, or other high teens actually.
Yeah, yeah.
Sure. Just generally on the Jaisalmer plant. With this new capacity that you are doing, what is the end result CapEx for FY 2026-2027 as an annual release? What is the peak that you are looking at?
SY2627, there should be about INR 700 crore-INR 800 crore spent on the Jaisalmer project. Total spent is INR 4,800 crore for the integrated and the two split grinding locations. We would be expecting another about INR 2,500 crore-INR 2,800 crore in the next fiscal, and balance will get split over in FY2028. This is how we see the whole CapEx. Normally, we will see that about INR 3,500 crore spent by FY2027 and remaining gets split over to FY2028.
Sir, and what are the full year CapEx that we can expect then in FY 2026 and FY 2027?
This year, I mean, it should be in the range of INR 28 billion-INR 30 billion. And next year, it will be over INR 3,500 crore .
Okay. Peak debt number that we can think of?
On the peak debt, we expect to, when we are looking at incremental borrowing coming in for the Jaisalmer project of about INR 3,000 crore. By the time this borrowing comes, the net debt should increase by about INR 2,000 crore, I think. There will be certain repayments and all. The net debt should increase by about INR 2,000 crore.
Okay, okay. Just lastly, on this wave of expansion that you've seen being announced. After a long time, we are seeing a lot of capacity being added actually in north as well, particularly with the recent announcement that Alkar had made. What is your thought on the market balance with all these new expansions coming in over the next two years?
See, again, those are the ones where announcements have been made. Yes, mostly it will always come. There would be, you could have a period of lower capacity utilization. It will take time to settle down. It would be not only for us, it would be for the industry, whatever it does. At this point of time, I mean, yes, there would be intense competition, but we are definitely prepared for it. It is not, we were expecting as such that the new capacities may come up, but there was no timeframe as there was no official announcement by the competition. We were looking at what could be the likely capacity which may come. Having said so, now it is very clear what capacities and the regions are also very clear. We will see. We'll work out our marketing strategy accordingly.
Okay, okay. That's all from me. Thank you so much.
Thank you. To ask a question, please press star and one. The next question is from the line of Harshal Mehta from Asian Markets Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, sir, thank you for the opportunity. A couple of questions. My first question is around strategy. In terms of growth and margins, how do we see better than? How do we see balancing, both on the growth and profitability going ahead?
Your voice is not clear. Your voice is breaking. It's not the question. Not clear.
Is it better now?
Yeah, margins are better.
Okay. My first question was on our strategy. Your views are on the growth margins and how do we plan to balance both of them going ahead? Second question is on non-trade business. How do we see that business going ahead for us? How do we see non-trade as a share moving as we start some new capacities? Lastly, just a clarification on Punjab and Rajasthan grinding units. Can we expect them to commission by fiscal year 2028? These are my questions. Thank you.
As far as strategy is concerned, we have been seeing our strategy has been clear that definitely with the expansion, we would definitely plan to grow higher than the market growth. That is why, so that we can see higher volumes of expansion in the market. We have been, and the strategy would be, we have already initiated our JCM strategy for North looking into the Jaisalmer budget, which is likely to come up in the next 15-18 months in 2024. We have already started working on that so that we are able to balance both on volume growth and at the same time, maintain a profitable growth. That would be definitely our strategy. As far as the grinding locations, what was your question on the grinding units?
Just a clarification, like Punjab and Rajasthan grinding units, so can we expect them to be commissioned by FY 2028?
Yeah, yeah. It will get commissioned along with the clinkerization in Q2 of FY2028. Even if it gets commissioned earlier, we can supply clinker from the existing Nimbahera plant. Nimbahera, Mangalore.
Sure, sir. On non-trade business, if you can help.
Non-trade, see, again, non-trade is, today also, non-trade is about one-third of the volume. We have to, along with the trade growth where you have to do a JCM strategy, we need to continuously work on growing the non-trade market, where it is an important segment. Even going forward, where we see if large infra projects are coming up, we need to plan to be part of those projects. You cannot afford to lose any of the projects. We would, as a part of strategy, get our product approved in all the new projects which are coming up in our region so that we are able to put material in the non-trade segment also.
Though as a strategy, we would definitely like to maintain around 70-30 as a trade non-trade ratio, but if it is marginally, if the growth, if the market growth is coming from non-trade, there may be, the trade percentage may marginally reduce.
Sure, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. To ask a question, you may please press star and one. Our next question comes from the line of Parvez Qazi from Nuvama Wealth Management . Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. And thanks for taking my question. My first question is regarding our volume expectation for FY2026. As I said, we had targeted for about 10% volume growth. Are we maintaining that? Second is, I mean, your view on prices post Q2. Thank you.
We are still maintaining. Like if we see, the first half, we have done a growth of about 15%. FY 2026, we still maintain an overall growth of about 10%. We are giving a guidance of around close to 20 million tons volume for this fiscal. We hope to achieve that. Your second question was?
Regarding the prices post the end of the quarter.
Regarding post the GST reduction, as we have passed on all the GST benefits to the market as was promised to the government, and we also indicated in our communication that GST benefit has been passed on. As of now, we see there is some pressure on pricing. There is a pressure on prices in this month. We will have to see how things, I mean, we expect that this should reduce going forward. If there is any cost increase or anything, we will try and see how we can push up the pricing.
Sure. Thanks and all the best.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities . Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. A couple of questions. It's been a little over a month into the new reduced GLP within. I wanted to understand if at a company level we are seeing any premiumization trend, and if that's making a share of premium product being higher than what they were in the previous quarter. Any such initial trend, or it's been the size of itself?
No, actually, our premium, see, one month, see what numbers are we are giving you, the numbers of Q2. We have seen even in Q2, there is a marginal increase in the premium product sales. Yet, as a company strategy, we are pushing up premium products because the demand for premium products is increasing. It is very difficult to, I mean, I would not be able to comment exactly that. What impact GST is having on the sale of premium products.
Understood. Regards to Saifco, one of the previous questions, you said you are looking at roughly 20,000 tons per month of sale from that particular asset. Is it possible to share how big is the market opportunity there in the sense that the adjustable market there, how big is it? Is it a lakh tons per month or some number just to understand the, let's say, the opportunity for us in that sense?
Yeah, yeah. The market in that region, overall, I think it's close to about 4 million tons.
4 million tons, yeah.
This is including trade, non-trade, everything. Large projects are coming and even all players, they continue to supply at these projects as their product is approved. See, today, the smaller producers, the local producers, have this disadvantage that all of them do not qualify for the larger projects because some projects have a minimum capacity criteria to be eligible to become a supplier for their projects. Now, since, see, with our launch and our brand value, we have been able to, we are also growing both in trade as well as non-trade. This number of 20,000 which you have given, this we feel that we should be able to do. Definitely, as of date, I mean, maybe six months down the line, we can give you the new numbers of how much further we can improve our volumes.
Yeah, sure. No, I was only thinking if we get 4 million tons per annum kind of a market, which is roughly 300,000 tons per month. And within that, I'm thinking even if it's a growth of 18%, the numbers that we are looking at, which is 20,000 tons. It seems to be like, I'm saying a little low on the lower side. I'm just saying that if we have a little bit number is lower, there is a lot of, this is why we entered. We have to see there is a lot of potential, there is some debottlenecking to be done at the plant, which we are planning how to do it and working on the timeline for that. Once we do that so that we can. Do higher volume numbers and at least get what you are saying is right, get about 10% market share.
Sure. Just one more bit on this Saifco thing. The total volume that it's sold in the region, which is 300,000 tons per month. How much of that is local and how much of it comes from nearby states of Himachal and Uttarakhand kind of a market? I'm just wanting to understand how much we have an advantage in the local players with lower lead distance in that market.
See, basically, most of the trade has been done, trade segment has been serviced by the local players. The non-trade segment is coming in from. Which I. In that region is also quite. Reasonable. I think it's 40%. I'm not sure about the number. I mean.
Sure.
It is 40, but I don't have that number. I think today's majority of the non-trade or the schemes, the key projects are being done from, made by the large producers, which is coming in from Punjab or Pramesh Street.
Understood. No, no, sir. That's helpful. Maybe as we progress along, we'll have more color on this. My next question then was on the UAE facility because one of the other companies which have presence in UAE, they reported a very sharp increase in profitability in that market, particularly in the September quarters. And while our numbers also are positive, I'm just looking at the difference between the console and standalone. So while the number is positive, but sequentially, there is some bit of a decline. I wanted to understand how should we look at overall EBITDA for FY2026-2027. And is the feedback correct that that market is improving and will benefit others as well?
As I see in UAE, besides Wisecement, we have also entered into Africa where we are selling wall putty. Now, in Africa where we are selling wall putty and all, we have been able to go in that region. The Wisecement per se is definitely growing. We would get, because of a local player, as you know, Asian Paints have come into Wisecement, and they will produce Wisecement from UAE and sell for their own consumption. We will be using that party, so that will have an impact on our profitability. However, we have already seen some increased volume in the other countries where we sell Wisecement. At the same time, we have introduced, we have been working on a new product line in the UAE and have been able to develop new products in the UAE, like dry mix and construction chemicals, again, where we are working.
This would be a new profit pool which we intend to create in the UAE. We are expecting that, on an overall basis, we should be able to maintain profitability in the UAE region. A reasonable profit, even this year. It may, in this quarter, be lower, but in the first nine months, it is comparable with last year, better than last year.
Understood. Understood. Since you mentioned about Wisecement, if you could just touch upon how. Are the margins of that particular segment? Are they continuing to be under pressure or there is some. What do you say, bottoming out side of the thing that we are expecting?
I think it has bottomed out. The pressure continues mainly on the 40, but that too has bottomed out.
Understood. Sorry. One last question, if I may. How much were paint revenues in this quarter, and are we on track to achieve the numbers for 2027? These are my questions. Thank you so much.
Paint revenue was INR 95 crores in this quarter. In the first six months, the overall paint revenue was INR 1,820 crores. We are given a guidance of closer to INR 400 crores . We are working, and we should be closer to that number.
Understood. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the final reminder, and no further reminders will be placed after this. If you wish to ask questions, please press star and one. Our next question comes from the line of Pinakin Parekh from HSBC . Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you very much, sir. My first question is, you mentioned there is some pressure on pricing, but as we get out of the monsoon quarter into the busy season, hopefully trade sales pick up, and you did also talk about higher premium product sales. On a blended basis, would you expect net realizations to be flat or down in Q3 versus Q2?
Yeah, it may be, as of now, in the month of October, as we see, with respect to Q2, it may be marginally down. Because more on the non-trade, we are seeing in Q2 prices, I mean, across all regions, like in the south, where it has increased, the prices have reduced somewhat in the south or southern region also. It hasn't, I mean, though in the northern region and all, it's not. There is definitely a pressure in the market.
Got it, sir. And sir, on demand, as we get out of the monsoon season into the busy season, we have seen. Rains linger. There is a Bihar election. Do you see the demand being pushed out into Q4, or are you seeing signs of demand recovery in November?
No, except for whatever the weather conditions, whatever you lose on the demand. Otherwise, demand is okay.
Got it. Got it.
We don't see that it's getting all pulled up to Q4.
Okay. So for the industry demand, you would expect this year to average 7%-8%, or you think it will be lower given how 1H has fed?
No, I think the industry should end up around 7%-8%.
Got it. Thank you very much, sir.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital . Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks, sir. At least I got the opportunity after waiting a while. Sir, a couple of questions. Sir, first of all, this paint, if we can loss for this quarter, is how much?
INR 14 crores.
INR 14 crores. In terms of, for FY 2027 also, the kind of INR 600 crore revenue and break even, that target remains the same?
Yeah, we are working towards that, yes.
Okay. Got it. Sir, the bigger thing just wanted to understand, so in terms of the profitability and the volume growth, or even previously, the participants try to ask the questions. I will try to ask slightly in a different way. Given that now one is the GST is already cut in, government is monitoring, and plus, as you said, the prices are seeing some pressure. Also, given the supply is now also increasing. More and more capacities are announced, and particularly the top two players, it seems now they are becoming aggressive on the market share gain. Given that, do we see that structurally the pricing, will the price hike or rather maybe one can see some marginal decline can also happen even for next one year also?
No, I don't think so. See, what has happened, the announcements which have been made, they are not coming up in the next one year. There is no market in the next one year between the demand and supply, whatever. The capacity, that is only going to come. There is no surprise capacity coming up in the next one year, which was factored in. Yes, there have been announcements that everybody has given a plan for their next two, three years' plan of how do they want to increase their capacities. They started working on, so it will take some time for the capacities to materialize.
Yeah. No, I'm sorry. Let's say even for next two, two, three years also, so broadly, if I look at. Roughly, I think more than 160 million ton is likely to come by FY2028. Also, the top two players, given the kind of a cost reduction revenue that they have, and becoming aggressive on the market share gain, and also, at the same time, they're in terms of increasing the premium share. Given that for us, so why I'm trying to understand is that because we were kind of one of the highest volume growth for last five years. Now, that may will continue, but on the pricing front, and ultimately, that will in terms of the profitability front, how one can look at.
Even if we understand 1% or 2%, INR 100 kind of a reduction on the top line or the realization front, or do we see that structurally, the profitability can still. Except whatever the Q2 was, obviously the extra one-off and negative operating leverage. Structurally, do we think that there is still a scope for us to keep on increasing, particularly the grey EBITDA per ton? Because this quarter, it seems very low, around INR 750 crore-INR 800 crore. On a INR 1,000 EBITDA per ton on grey fund, is it doable on a yearly basis for the next couple of years?
See, half of any data is over 1,000. Have any of the big players who have announced capacities indicated that they will reduce prices and increase EBITDA? They have also said that they will be increasing their EBITDA. Have they indicated that they will be reducing the pricing? No. They have only given their plans for expansion. When they are investing, they would also like the profitability to increase. If they are the market leader, they will definitely, if they do not reduce the price, that does not mean that we will reduce price and then sell. We have not done that. We have always been bridging the gap with the lead player, with the market leader, and not reduce pricing. We do not foresee that is not part of our strategy.
Okay. Got it. Lastly, sir, just on the CapEx front, again, coming back on that. This 6 million ton Karnataka expansion, if the original CapEx plan has not changed, I think still INR 960 crores is left to be spent. In the full year now, when we are saying that the CapEx for this year would be close to INR 700 crores, this year CapEx number should be on the higher side versus what right now we have guided?
No, no. What we have guided is inclusive of the INR 700 crores-INR 750 crores for the Jaisalmer. And the number which we have given is, the number for this year was about INR 2,700 crores-INR 2,800 crores. And that is including Jaisalmer, Karnataka, and normal everything. Our earlier guidance for the CapEx for this year was between INR INR 1,800 crores-INR 2,000 crores, which has now been, because of the new project, it has increased.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pathanjali Srinivasan from Sundaram Mutual Fund . Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity again. Just a couple of questions. Our trade share has actually, our trade volumes have grown very well over the last year, but non-trade seems to have been almost flat. Any reason why you see this is happening?
No, there's no reason for it. We are also working. We have been trying to sell cement overall at whichever is the most profitable. It is not that the non-trade has also increased this year. It is not that it has not increased.
Yes, sir. Maybe I put my question differently. Any states anywhere where infra activity has seen some bit of a slowdown where we are operating?
No, no, it's not. This is not related to infra. I mean, we are not saying that our non-trade is lower because of infra. Our focus, I mean, definitely, as we would like, as even whatever infra is going, if we could increase our trade sales and get the overall volume. It can't be that we continue to grow in trade as well as non-trade over and out of the industry. That is not possible and feasible.
Okay, sir. What are the reasons for us to keep a 10% guidance? Because first half, we are at almost 15% volume growth.
Oh, I see. First half, 15%, as I said, the base was also lower. There was a maintenance. Numbers in the first half. If you look at the base of the second half and what would be the growth, we are talking about a 10% + growth overall for the year.
Understood. Understood. Got it. CapEx numbers, just that, can you confirm for 2026, 2027?
Yeah. Next year, it will be more than INR 3,500 crore. Anything between around INR 3,500 crore, see, as you go for a large project, INR 200 crore plus minus, so you can take from INR 3,500 crore plus minus INR 200 crores.
Okay. Got it, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Just a couple of questions. Sir, I just wanted to understand that with the GST reduction. We have already committed to the Jaisalmer plant. We would have certainly got into certain, I think, what we had indicated earlier of customized incentive package. With the state government. With GST reduction, how does the underlying economics change for us?
No, no, see, it is. To some extent, it gets, only thing, the period gets extended. It is the amount that does not get reduced. It is the period which gets extended. Especially, there is no impact in the case of the capital subsidy. It would only impact the landing rates where we have the GST-based subsidy. The period gets extended.
Right. So that, I think.
Ramp up the volume. Either if you are willing to ramp up the volume faster, then you can get it faster. That we will work out as we move.
Okay. Sir, hypothetically, that seven years can be extended to 10 years? Do we have that flexibility already, or we have already negotiated with the respective governments?
It is, see, the seven-year period which we are there, we are re-working on the extended period.
Okay. And sir, for the Rajasthan plant also, is it the same thing, 75% SGST, or is it only for the GU?
For the Rajasthan plant also, it is. Even for the integrated unit.
Okay. Fine. And sir, just to check, basically, I think we have two leases over here. One is Kenya, wherein we have 15% premium. And the other one, I think we have around 44% premium. Are these numbers correct?
Pardon? Can you repeat your question?
Sir, corresponding to the Jaisalmer plant, there are two leases that we have won in auctions. One bed is at 15%, and the other bed is at 44%.
Yeah, yeah.
The limestone.
Yeah, right.
Yeah, yeah.
The first one is at 15%, where we are setting up the plant. The new one that we have got, that is about 40%.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, we will now take the last two questions. Participants, we request you to please restrict yourself to one question only. The first of which comes from the line of Amit Murarkar from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Oh, yeah, hi, for the opportunity again. Just on your cost reduction program, you had outlined certain savings. Could you just refresh as to where you stand on that right now? What is the exit rate expected in FY2026?
We had given the guidance of about INR 150 crores-INR 200 crores a ton cost saving. In FY 2026, we should end the year closer to INR 75 crores-INR 90 crores a ton saving by FY 2026, and balance another INR 75 crores-INR 80 crores, which was set in FY 2027.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rahul, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Hello. Thank you for the opportunity. Yeah. My question is on the paints business. I have noted your inputs on the revenue EBITDA part. Following up on your guidance or your action numbers last quarter, it was 30% gross margin. Do you have any inputs on the gross margin for H1 or quarter two?
No, we are working out on the gross margin numbers, and we are hopeful that we should be able to improve the gross margin over last year.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as the last question. I will now hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Yeah, thank you. We are PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. We'd like to thank the manager, J.K. Cement, for the call, and also many thanks to the partners for joining the call. Thank you very much, sir. I'll conclude the call. Thank you.
Thank you, everyone, for joining the call. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.