CIE Automotive India Limited (BOM:532756)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2024

Feb 21, 2025

Summary

Q4 and full-year results show resilient performance despite a 2% sales decline, with strong growth and margins in India offsetting significant drops in Europe. Management is optimistic about India's outlook, focusing on capacity expansion and efficiency, while maintaining a robust order book and healthy cash flows.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon and welcome to the CIE India's Q4 and full year CY 2024 results conference call hosted by ICICI Securities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Ms. Vishakha Maliwal from ICICI Securities. Thank you, and over to you.

Vishakha Maliwal
Research Analyst, ICICI Securities

Thanks, Yashaswi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks to CIE Automotive India Limited management for giving us the opportunity to host the call. We have here in the call the senior management represented by Mr. Ander Álvarez, CEO, Mr. K. Jayaprakash, CFO, Mr. Vikas Sinha, Senior VP, Strategy, Mr. Oroitz Lafuente, Business Controller, and Mr. Swapnil Soudagar, PGM, Strategy. Over to the management to take this ahead. Thank you.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yeah. Thanks, Vishakha. This is Vikas. I welcome all of you on this call, as also Ander, our CEO. I will present CIE India results for the Q4 C 2024 quarter and full year C 2024. I am referring to the investor presentation that we had uploaded. Let me begin with the section that provides an overview of the company. Page five shows the legal structure of the company. Please note that the Mexican plant is now a subsidiary of CIE Galfor Europe, which holds 99.81% of its equity.

This follows the conversion of Bill Forge Mexico's debt into equity using the cash generated in Europe, which included partly the proceeds from the divestment of CIE Forge Germany. For historical reasons, the finances of Mexico are clubbed under India in this investor presentation. The Mexican business is small, with sales approximately of INR 3 billion at an EBITDA margin of 12%-13%.

Pages six and seven provide details of CIE India's geographic, technological and market-wide segments. Plants in India accounted for 68% of CIE India's sales, with 32% coming from Europe. This 68% includes that INR 3 billion from Mexico, please note. You will recall that this ratio was roughly the reverse at the time of inception of CIE India in 2015, so India has been gradually growing. As you can also see, our India business is very diversified in terms of technologies and segments. In contrast, our European business is more focused on forgings, and there are three segments, Light Vehicles, Off-highway, and Trucks. The Light Vehicle segment includes EVs also. Here, I think we owe you an explanation, because normally we have been speaking, as far as our European business is concerned, only about Light Vehicles and Off-highway.

If you recall our investor presentation from last year, that is CY 2023 full year investor presentation that we made in February of last year, we had presented exact details of our segments in Europe. Roughly about 20% came from Trucks, 20% from Off-highway, and about 60% from Light Vehicles. We do not have exact numbers for this year, but roughly that ratio remains the same.

The Trucks business was a legacy business of largely shafts and spindles. We had expected this legacy business to keep coming down as our other segments grew, and therefore, this was not really a focused business for us. It is just a legacy business that we were continuing, so we did not talk too much about it. Unfortunately, what has happened is in the last few quarters, the Truck business in Europe has taken a beating, and therefore, we will have to include it in the explanations.

I think in Q3 and Q4, more than 25% drop. I think in Q3, 28% drop in Truck business in Europe, and Q4, 35% drop. So that has affected our business somewhat. So that is the explanation we thought that we should provide to you because we owe that to you. Nevertheless, if you look at all our segments, you will realize that CIE Automotive India is unique as a large diversified auto components group with presence across many processes, product lines, location and customers. This kind of diversification across geographies, technologies and market segments is probably not available elsewhere. Let me now proceed to the section on Q4 CY 2024 results. The results of the India operations for Q4 CY 2024 is on page 9. The Light Vehicle segment, which is our largest, slowed to a growth of 3.2% in this quarter.

While Trucks were massively negative in terms of growth, tractors and two-wheelers grew 12% and 8% respectively. Sales at INR 14.5 billion were 4% higher year-on-year, in line with the weighted average market growth. The India operations achieved an EBITDA margin of 17% in Q4 CY 2024 versus 16.5% in Q4 CY 2023 and 17.7% in Q3 CY 2024. The stock reduction effect at year-end was a contributor to the slight sequential reduction in EBITDA margin. In Q4 CY 2024, EBITDA grew 7% year-on-year compared to net sales growth of 4%, EBIT 5%, and EBT 8%. As I referred. On page 10, we have the Q4 CY 2024 results for our European operations. As we have discussed earlier, our key markets, the European Light Vehicle, the U.S. Off-highway, and European MHCV markets are experiencing significant decline.

Sales of INR 5.8 billion in Q4 CY 2024 are 21% lower year-on-year versus Q4 CY 2023, and even 2% lower than Q3 CY 2024 sequentially. In spite of such a large drop in sales, we have managed an EBITDA margin of 15% in Q4 CY 2024 versus 16.9% in Q4 CY 2023 and 16% in Q3 CY 2024. On page 11, we have the consolidated CIE India Q4 CY 2024 results. Consolidated sales were INR 20.3 billion, which was 5% lower year-on-year. EBITDA was INR 3.3 billion, EBT INR 2.75 billion, and EBIT INR 2.3 billion, lower by 6%, 9%, and 4% respectively, more or less in line with the decline in sales. Let us move on to the section on full year CY 2024 results. The full year CY 2024 results for our Indian operations are on page 13.

Sales increased by 5% versus 2023 to INR 58.1 billion, which is marginally higher than the weighted average market growth. Light vehicles, which account for 52% of our sales, grew by 3.8% only. Two-wheelers, which account for 21%, grew excellently at 16%. These are market growths. The other two segments of tractors, which is 18% of sales, and Trucks, 9% of sales, declined. This gives you why we are talking about a slower growth rate. The EBITDA margin of 17.9% was significantly higher than the 16.7% achieved in 2023, though it includes a 0.7% of non-recurrent EBITDA on account of the subsidy received by our aluminum business in Q1 2024. While sales grew by 5% in 2024, EBITDA grew 12%, EBIT 14%, EBT 17%, and PAT by 20%, which is significant. On page 14, we have the full year results of 2024 for our European operations.

As explained earlier, our major markets, European Light Vehicles, U.S. Off-highway, and European MHCVs, declined in 2024, especially the latter two suffering big declines. This is reflected in a large decline in our sales of 14% in 2024 to INR 28.2 billion. This had a cascading effect with EBITDA declining 22%, EBIT 27%, and EBT by 26%. Our European business showed its resilience by recording an EBITDA margin of 16.1% despite the large drop in sales and a positive PAT of INR 2.4 billion. Please note that the PAT of 2023 includes INR 3.3 billion of profit from discontinued operations pertaining to our soil forgings business in Germany. PAT of 2023 is not directly comparable to PAT of 2024 in our European operations. On page 15, we have the 2024 consolidated results of CIE India. Sales were INR 86.3 billion, which is a slight decline of 2% versus 2023.

This is largely due to the decline in our European business. The EBITDA margin was 17.3% versus 17.1% in 2023, EBIT 13.4% versus 13.4%, it is same, and EBT 12.6% versus 12.2%. The consolidated PAT in 2024 is INR 8.3 billion versus INR 11.3 billion in 2023. The 2023 PAT of course, includes profits from discontinued CFG operations of INR 3.3 billion. Adjusting for this, PAT in 2024 grew by 3.7%, and this highlights the resilience in CIE's business model, despite a decline of 2% in sales. Next up is the section on balance sheet and cash flows. On page 17, you will see our abridged consolidated balance sheet, which shows the healthy state of CIE India. Return on net assets is 19.8%, roughly around the 20% mark that we aspire to.

Return on equity is 12.6%, and ROE of continued operations is 12.5%, largely due to the cash on our balance sheet. Net financial debt has further improved and is negative INR 12 billion versus negative INR 8.2 billion last year. The cash flows are shown on page 18. The company generated operating cash flows to the extent of 66% of consolidated EBITDA. Gross CapEx was INR 2.1 billion, concentrated mainly in India. Overall CapEx was INR 3.9 billion, which is less than 5% of sales and represents our endeavor to control CapEx till market starts picking up, which is in line with our norms. Given the strong cash generation, the board of the company has recommended an enhanced dividend payout of INR 7 per share versus INR 5 per share made last year.

Now, this INR 5 per share last year was itself double the payout made in the previous two years. This, of course, is pending approval in the AGM scheduled later in the year. This part is not in the presentation, but since the approvals came yesterday, we are presenting it separately. We move on to the section on strategy. The global automotive industry is throwing up risks and opportunities in ample measures, as exemplified by the contrasting market trajectories of our two main markets, Europe and India.

In Europe, our strategy is to optimize and protect our margins as much as possible, adapting our factories to the new volume scenario in the medium term and look for additional business as supply chain consolidates. On the other hand, we continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term growth in the Indian automotive market and will continue to invest in expanding capacity in India. We are focused on improving the efficiency of our Indian plants to bring them as close as possible to the benchmarks of CIE Automotive worldwide. After an initial spurt in the last few years, the European Light Vehicle market witnessed a stagnation in EV penetration in 2024 at 13%.

Current forecasts suggest that this ratio will move up to 43% in 2029, which is down from earlier estimates of 56%, and that is what we are referring to as a slowdown on EV penetration in Europe. Our plan is to manage this transition, and that is by substituting production of crankshafts by aluminum forged parts and steel parts that will not be affected by transition to electric vehicles. In addition, Metalcastello has a healthy order book in electric vehicle transmission parts. Some of these orders have been delayed as the pace of growth of EVs in Europe and U.S. slows down. In India, the transition to electric mobility is expected to increase gradually. Many exciting new EV models were launched both in four-wheeler and two-wheeler segments in 2024, and this should spur EV penetration in India.

The exposure of our India business to internal combustion engine parts is low, and the transition to EVs is more of an opportunity than a risk in India. Our EV order book in India is spread across aluminum and steel castings, steel forgings, gears, stampings, and composite parts for e-two-wheeler, e-three-wheeler, and e-four-wheeler segments. This is very diversified, our EV effort in India. The next few pages present market statistics and forecasts from relevant sources, followed by the results submitted to SEBI in the prescribed format. To summarize, the automotive industry is faced with significant uncertainty, both in the immediate and long term. Markets are volatile. The transition to EVs is not happening as smoothly as predicted. Automotive customers are looking for more premium features and for better safety and comfort. The supply chain is being transformed by digitization and Industry 4.0.

We strive to be future-ready as many new opportunities and risks emerge in this changing environment. Our approach has been to optimally balance growth, investments, and returns to actively manage the uncertainties surrounding these changes. Thank you. Now we can proceed to Q&A.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and 1 on your phone. We will take our first question from the line of Amit Agicha from H.G. Hawa & Company. Please go ahead.

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Good afternoon, sir. Am I audible?

Operator

Amit, can you use your handset mode, please? Your voice is not clear.

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Yeah, I am using my handset mode. Am I audible?

Operator

Yes. Please go ahead.

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Thank you for the opportunity, and good afternoon to everybody. My question was connected to the current order book position. What is the current order book position and how does it compare year-on-year?

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Order book where? In India or Europe?

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Both.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

No, normally, as I said, every year we generate orders anywhere between 15%-20% of our sales. That is like a thumb rule as far as CIE is concerned, and that kind of order book is generated every year. We are very comfortable on order book as far as both India and Europe are concerned. Even on EV orders, they are a substantial or a significant portion, not substantial, significant portion of our order book. Right now the issue is the conversion of order book into sales, which is taking more time than what we thought because of the slowness in market, especially in Europe, and particularly in EVs in Europe. Other than that, we are very comfortable on the order book position. You can easily take about 15% of sales as orders generated every year. Right. Ander, anything you want to add?

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

No, it is a perfect answer. In fact, in India we had about INR 10,000 billion of new orders, and out of the INR 10,000 billion, approximately 25% are for EVs. Okay? We see that the EV orders are growing even in India. I think our portfolio is balanced slowly towards the electrification, so we are quite satisfied with this evolution. Regarding the new order allocation this year has been positive, and we hope that these new orders will, let us say, will transform into firm orders in the next years.

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Thank you, sir. The second question was connected to the capacity utilization of the plants across India and Europe. Are you facing any bottlenecks or idle capacities? Like you are planning to include more CapEx and increase the expansion?

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

Okay. It depends on the different verticals. Okay? In certain verticals we have free capacity. Approximately we can say that we can have around 20% of average free capacity. But in certain verticals like aluminum, we are fully booked in this moment. We are working even Saturdays, Sundays, so we are adding new machinery. We have a very strong CapEx plan. This year we used our CapEx to reinforce our position in certain, let us say, verticals. But for 2025, we will, for sure, have to spend much more money on CapEx because of the new order books are requiring this additional CapEx. We took more or less about 5%-6% of our turnover in CapEx every year.

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Thank you, sir. That was helpful. All the best.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Thank you.

Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone. Participants who wish to ask a question are requested to press star and one on their phone. We will take our next question from the line of Devang Shah from Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Private Limited. Please go ahead.

Devang Shah
Analyst, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Private Limited

Hi. Good afternoon, sir. Sir, I just want to get an idea. The way we are seeing some kind of slowdown in Europe, especially now auto segment. Sir, what kind of growth trajectory as far as revenue growth is concerned, you are looking in a next two years perspective. Because you are somewhere able to make your margin somewhere close to 15%. But you are having, because of the European operations, some kind of negativity. Although, you try to make it out, based on the industrial standard, you are trying to make some kind of outperformance. But any kind of green shoot visibility is there, or you can compensate that with India, particular the way we are seeing some kind of growth over there. Can you throw some more light as far as growth is concerned for the next two years?

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

Okay. You are right that this year, unfortunately, the growth in India was not able to offset the drop that we had in Europe. The reality is that the drop in Europe was higher than expected, especially because you know that the automotive sector is going down. There is quite a slowdown in this section, in the four-wheelers. But also at the same time, this year, we had a huge drop on the commercial vehicles and the Off-highway vehicles. During the year, from first quarter to the end of the year, we saw the commercial vehicles and the Off-highway business declining more and more. Okay? We started with the - 10% in the first quarter, - 21% in the second, - 28% in the third, and finally, the last quarter was - 35%.

That is the drop of the commercial vehicles market in Europe, and that affected us in terms of our sales. What we see in Europe in the next two, three quarters, what we see is that the market is still very uncertain. The commercial vehicles are weak. They continue at this low level. The passenger car business also, it seems that will remain at the current levels. We are not very optimistic, at least in the next two, three quarters, regarding the European market evolution. We will probably see a revamp on the commercial vehicles that this market is very cyclical, so we should start looking at the, let's say, the revamping, the change in the trend in the commercial vehicles.

Also what we expect is, especially in the Off-highway business, we expect in the second half of the year, a certain revamp, thanks to the different politics that are being taken by the U.S. government, reinforcing all the oil and gas production and infrastructure plan and so on. Okay? That's the expectation. We can expect first half of the year, a weak scenario, and second half of the year, we all hope that there will be a certain growth or certain revamp.

Devang Shah
Analyst, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Private Limited

But sir, just my question to that, just adding, the way we are making some kind of offset by Indian operation, and we are seeing some kind of the government policy over is supportive. The way recently we have seen that Tesla, Inc. is also coming into in India. So auto ancillary player like you, in which they are also giving some kind of emphasis to have a promote through PLI and giving the localization. And the way the demand environment is there, the budget has been so far announced by the government. Do you feel it will compensate your overall revenue growth and you may come out into some kind of single digit or mid-single digit kind of revenue growth for next FY, I mean, 2026 or 2027? That can possibly be, sir.

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

Yes. That is exactly our plan. Okay? Now we are, in fact, during all these weeks we are having different meetings internally in India because as expected and as explained, the European market, at least in the next quarters, will not give us good news or at least will be very flat evolution. We will concentrate our growth strategy in India, and we have already taken certain actions, and we are speeding up, let's say, the new order allocation and the ramp-up of the new programs. So we hope that, yes, in the next In the next years, we will be able to offset the drop of Europe with the growth in India. Okay? That's exactly the strategy, and that's where we are now making all our efforts. So we will reinforce the speed in India, because I think we are now ready for that.

You know that sometimes growing and having new projects and starting new projects is not an easy task, because you need good people, you need to be trained, you need the technology, and you need all the management to be well-aligned. In this moment, I think our company is very solid. You saw in the evolution in the last years, you saw also in the margins that we are able to sustain and to improve every year. Year by year, we are improving. We still have a lot of room for improvement in internal efficiencies. We are working on that. So I think that we are very optimistic regarding our Indian business. CIE Automotive's bet is to grow in India, considering that other regions will not grow or will grow less than expected. So we need to make our best efforts here in India, and that's the target.

Yes, the answer is yes, that's our expectation to offset the drop in Europe with the growth in India.

Devang Shah
Analyst, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Private Limited

Comment on the number side, sir. What kind of growth in a percentile can you say? Some kind of mid-single digit as far as revenue is concerned for next two years.

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

We do not give guidance.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

No, these are forward-looking statements. What you are asking for is something that is reasonable. Let's leave it at that.

Devang Shah
Analyst, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Private Limited

Understood. Sir, one more thing. Margin-wise, we are going to maintain some kind of range that is prevailing right now?

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yes, that's the endeavor. In India, hopefully, we can increase a little bit. Of course, we are trying to ramp up growth in India. We are trying to ramp up growth with our anchor customers. Like plus and minuses, but as Ander pointed out, there is some scope for improvement in India. The rate of improvement in India will not be the same as before. We have rapidly improved margins. It's not going to be as fast improvement, but we do hope to improve something in India. In Europe, it all depends on the sales. If the sales decline is arrested, like we had 20% drop in almost We had big drops in both the quarters, last quarters. In spite of that, we are still at around 15% and overall, for the year, around 16%. Yes, that is the kind of range bound we want to keep.

Unless until, of course, the bottom collapses from the sales, then it is a different issue. But we don't think that is going to happen. We do expect, as Ander pointed out, two or three quarters down the line, we do expect some improvements in Trucks, improvements off highway, and we expect the cars to stabilize at this level. So I think, yes, what you're talking about, that range of 15%, hopefully, we can get better than that, but around that, yes.

Devang Shah
Analyst, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Private Limited

Yes. Thank you so much. And wishing you all the best.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yeah. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Before we take the next question, would like to remind participants to press star and one to ask a question. Next question is from the line of Apurva from BugleRock Capital. Please go ahead.

Apurva Sharma
Analyst, BugleRock Capital

Hi. This is Apurva from BugleRock Capital. Thank you for the opportunity and appreciate the robust performance despite what's happening in Europe. I had two questions. One is on Am I audible, sorry? Yeah.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yes. Go ahead, Apurva.

Apurva Sharma
Analyst, BugleRock Capital

Yeah. Hi. Just on the OEM side, any meaningful conversations, apart from our anchor clients, our top three, four clients, on the passenger vehicle side, any meaningful conversations on new business opportunity during the quarter or no?

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

No, of course. Our customer list in India is much longer than just the anchor customers. As we have pointed out in earlier conversations, I think we have at least 12 to 15 strong clients in India, and we regularly interact with them. We had talked about order delays at some of the other clients. That is the reason why we have increased our focus on anchor customers, but all our customers are equally important to us, and we are in conversation with all our customers. Yes, there are opportunities beyond anchor customers also, and there are good opportunities in anchor customers.

Apurva Sharma
Analyst, BugleRock Capital

Yes.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Mahindra, Bajaj, they have launched some very good models, so we are looking forward to that. But there are other customers also. Look, in terms of order book, in terms of customers in India, I think we are placed very comfortably. It is just that some of the order book has been delayed. That is the only reason. We are quite happy with the situation. Otherwise, there are always competitive pressures. Now, if the question is, are there competitive pressures? Answer is yes. We are happy dealing with competition. It is a competitive market. That is the reason why we put so much stress on reliability, efficiency, so that we remain the first choice for all our customers.

Apurva Sharma
Analyst, BugleRock Capital

Yeah. So one is the order delay and the other, where I was coming from is, below the anchor customers, any wallet share gains that we are looking for in the next one, two years? I understand this is a platform business, it takes time. So that is the question.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yes. There are lots of I don't want to be enumerating that, but beyond the anchor customers, we will. In fact, if you go back to the strategy that we talk about, with anchor customers, we grow along with the market, and our new customers give us that market plus growth. As simple. If you look at the portfolio approach, this is what we do. This is how we maintain our margins also. So that approach remains. It is just that for the last few quarters, we have hovered around the market because some of the new orders have delayed some of the anchor customers. In every quarter, one has done well, the other has not done well. Something like that has happened. So that is the reason why. But we are very comfortable as far as all our customers are concerned.

Apurva Sharma
Analyst, BugleRock Capital

Okay. My next question was on the inorganic front that we were targeting a segment where we do not have that much presence and we would like a customer-driven inorganic acquisition. Anything on that you are looking at? I think it was the composites business.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

No. Plastics. We had talked about plastics.

Apurva Sharma
Analyst, BugleRock Capital

Plastics, sorry. Yeah.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Composites is already a small business we have. We wanted to do plastic. There are other areas that we are actively looking at. We will continue to look at that. Of course, we are not going to do acquisitions just for growth. We will only do it when some of our strategic gaps are addressed. That is what it is. We keep looking at it. Yes, we have not done an acquisition since 2019, but we keep actively engaged on that part.

Apurva Sharma
Analyst, BugleRock Capital

Sure. I was more coming from that only, the strategic gaps in terms of customers.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yeah. We have identified that. We keep looking at it.

Apurva Sharma
Analyst, BugleRock Capital

Sure. Thanks for the opportunity, and all the best.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Thanks.

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

Thank you.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Pratik Kothari from Unique PMS. Please go ahead.

Pratik Kothari
Analyst, Unique PMS

Yes. Hi, good afternoon. Sir, just a continuation to your last comment because on these delays, et cetera, across various customers. Because in the last two years also, I believe we had done some material CapEx for them and that was not getting ramped up. So one, are these issues behind us or not yet?

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Pratik, they are ongoing, but largely, I think, if you remember, to be frank, we had expected things to be changing from Q3 of 2024, right? We had said that. That did not materialize the way we had spoken about. But yes, we do expect this year will be better. I think we have, let's say, more confidence at this time when we are telling you this.

Pratik Kothari
Analyst, Unique PMS

Correct. This betterment, I believe, is one, the delay which happened over the last year or two, and also the new orders that you have in.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yes. The delay was with CIE Hosur customers. The delay was with some of our EV customers at aluminum. There were certain specific orders that were delayed.

Pratik Kothari
Analyst, Unique PMS

My question is, that is getting resolved?

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yes, that is getting resolved. Yes.

Pratik Kothari
Analyst, Unique PMS

Correct. Also order booking or inflow this year has been strong, hence we are saying that we need to do much more CapEx next year also for Indian operations.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yes, that is right.

Pratik Kothari
Analyst, Unique PMS

Correct. Vikas, just one clarification. The CV growth that we report, I mean the market growth of -22%. How do we reconcile? Because nowhere else do we see that Indian markets MHCV is down 20%. What does this include and it does not?

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

I think he is looking at Europe.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yeah. You are looking at Europe or?

Pratik Kothari
Analyst, Unique PMS

No, India.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Q4 number or yearly number?

Pratik Kothari
Analyst, Unique PMS

Q4.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Q4. Go to Q4. Yeah, -20. No. That -22.2% that you are looking at is year-on-year drop for Trucks. Yes.

Pratik Kothari
Analyst, Unique PMS

Correct. If you look at, I know this is IHS, but if you look at SIAM, FADA, things are between -2% to +2%. Because we benchmark ourselves to these numbers which we report when we say the industry growth and how we—

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

We can talk about that. I think LCVs, how they are treated, it depends on that. Because if you include LCVs in the Truck data, then it becomes different because LCVs are included in the 6-ton data in the way we present it. That will account for the difference.

Pratik Kothari
Analyst, Unique PMS

Correct. One other thing on Europe. Metalcastello, has it gotten worse? I think last quarter we were at EUR 4 million a month. Where are we there?

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

Yes. We are still at about EUR 4 million per month. That is the current level. We do not expect to go down that level, and we expect to recover and to increase this figure by the second half of this calendar year. We think that, as you know, we are producing mainly gear for the Off-highway vehicles used mainly for big infrastructure, oil and gas applications. We all expect that these businesses will revamp in the U.S. in the next months. Let us say that we are still very low at this EUR 4 million per month. That is very low figure for us, and we expect to recover in the second half of the year.

Pratik Kothari
Analyst, Unique PMS

Correct. Great. Thank you and all the best, sir.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Thank you.

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our next question from the line of Amit Agicha from H.G. Hawa & Company. Please go ahead.

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Yeah, thank you for the follow-up, sir. Am I audible?

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yeah, please, Amit, go ahead.

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Yes, sir. What is the total number of employees across India and Europe, and are there any other hiring or workforce restructuring plan?

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Europe and India are completely different actually, yeah. So on India, you are saying hiring plan in India or whatever? What are you talking about?

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Yes.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

No, we are focused on efficiency, Amit, so to that extent, whatever is required for doing that, we do that. As far as Europe is concerned, we told you, we are trying to adjust our cost to the lower volumes. You have to understand that the average size of Light Vehicles production in Europe used to be around 20 million. Now the average size is anywhere between 16 million to 17 million. And it is expected that this 16 million to 17 million production will be for the next two, three years.

The market itself has shrunk, roughly average 20 million to 17 million. We have to adjust ourselves to this reality, which is what we are doing. Exact numbers, I think, we will have to check and provide, but in Europe, we are trying to adjust the cost. In India, we are focused on efficiency. That includes automation, that includes routing, that includes layouts. A whole lot of things.

It is not that we are required to do some special hiring or anything like that.

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

Yes, for your understanding, in India, we are about 12,600 employees. That is the total amount of Indian employees. We do not expect to grow this figure, as we expect to grow the business with increasing our internal efficiency. In Europe, we are a little bit more than 900 people. Okay? That is the amount of people that we have in Forgings plus Metalcastello. We have reduced all these figures from the previous year, adapting to the new condition of the market, and that is what we are now fighting. We need to adapt the company, the manpower to the reality of the business.

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Sir, one last question was connected to the material price fluctuations like the steel, and all the input costs. Are they affecting the margins, and if so, how much?

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

No, there has not been almost any relevant change. Less than 1% of impact on the sales. So very minimal impact.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Not this quarter. Not too much in Q3 either. Frankly, they are largely stable. Actually trending down, but largely stable. The prices, the commodity prices.

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Thank you. That is it from my side.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Pass through the overall EBITDA is not impacted, but since you talked margins.

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

It was not on sale from that end. The margins don't get impacted with that.

Amit Agicha
Analyst, H.G. Hawa & Company

Okay, sir. Thank you. That was helpful, and that's it from my side.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yeah. Thanks, Amit.

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone. We will take our next question from the line of Nishant Chowhan from Geojit. Please go ahead.

Nishant Chowhan
Analyst, Geojit

Hi, sir. Am I audible?

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yes, please, Nishant, go ahead.

Nishant Chowhan
Analyst, Geojit

Yeah. Sir, just one question with reference to your slide number 14, wherein we are talking about the European folio performance. Over there, we mentioned the MHCV declined to be around 25.9%. But if I reconcile with some other industry body data such as the ACEA or something like that, they report something around 5%- 6% decline. Could you just help me understand, are these the production figures or what could be the possible difference between the data?

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

These are production data, number one.

Nishant Chowhan
Analyst, Geojit

Okay.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

It does not include Russia, so there are two caveats here you have to check. One, this is production data. I think ACEA data is more sales data.

Nishant Chowhan
Analyst, Geojit

Yeah, it says registration data, right.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yeah, that is registration data. IHS provides both. I think, will you please check IHS sales data, then what is the drop? Because we present production data and Russia. We can reconcile it for you, Nishant. No problem. You can contact us directly and I will get it reconciled. No problem.

Nishant Chowhan
Analyst, Geojit

Okay. And sir, any inventory issues or any comments on that, are they sitting on high levels of inventory in Europe, or is it normalized at this point? Especially in MHCV.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

No, you are talking of talking of domestic inventories?

MHCV's inventory in the European supply chain. We will get it checked, Nishant. No worries. Let us examine ACEA data, IHS data, and I will get back to you on this.

Nishant Chowhan
Analyst, Geojit

No problem.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

You can contact me. You have my contact details. You can contact me. We will get this resolved.

Nishant Chowhan
Analyst, Geojit

Sure, sir. No problem. Okay, sir. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yeah, thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone.

Nishant Chowhan
Analyst, Geojit

Yeah, sales here. Right there.

Operator

As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to management for closing comments. Over to you, sir.

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

Okay. I would like to thank you everybody for participating in this call. Thank you for your comments and your trust in our company. As you can see, our company continues performing solidly despite the, let's say, tough situation in regions like Europe. We think that we are doing our job properly, and in the future, we will continue showing good results and a very solid financial performance. I would like, as always, thank you to all my team, because of the great job they have done in all these tough times. I hope that we will see you in the future with better figures and better results. Thank you very much, everybody.

Operator

Thank you.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Thank you.

Operator

On behalf of ICICI Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.

Vikas Sinha
Senior VP of Strategy, CIE Automotive India

Yeah. Thanks so much.

Ander Álvarez
CEO, CIE Automotive India

Thank you.