Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited Q4 FY23 results call hosted by Ambit Capital. As a reminder, all participants' lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ahmed Kedia from Ambit Capital. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, Ahmed. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Q4 FY23 earnings conference of Ahluwalia Contracts. We have the management today being represented by Mr. Shobhit Uppal and his team. I will now hand over the call to the management for their opening remarks, post which we'll open up the floor for Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Ahmed. We at Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited, an EPC company, have announced our financial results for Q4 FY23 and the whole year. During Q4 FY23, the company has achieved a turnover of INR 863.05 crores and a PAT of INR 72.21 crores in comparison to a turnover of INR 730.86 crores and a PAT of INR 42.35 crores in Q4 FY22. EPS of the company for Q4 FY23 is 10.78 as compared to INR 6.32 in the corresponding quarter of the last financial year. During Q4 FY23, the company's EBITDA margin is 12.78% as compared to 8.70% and a PAT margin of 8.37% as compared to 5.79% in the corresponding period of the last financial year. During FY23, the company has achieved a turnover of INR 2838.39 crores and a PAT of INR 194.16 crores in comparison to a turnover of INR 2692.47 crores and a PAT of INR 155.26 crores during FY22.
EPS of the company for FY23 is INR 28.98 as compared to INR 23.18 in FY22. During FY23, the company's EBITDA margin is 10.72% as compared to 9.53% and PAT margin of 6.84% as compared to a PAT of 5.77% in the corresponding period. Net order book of the company as of 31st March 2023 stood at 8,162.74 crores to be executed in the next two and a half to three years. Total order inflow during FY23 was 5,056.97 crores. During current financial year as of date, the order inflow is 3,751.26 crores. Our unexecuted order book as of date is 12,000 crores approximately. So I will hand over to our CFO, Mr. Satbeer Singh, for taking you through our standard financial numbers.
This is, first of all, cash position. This is INR 365.90 crores, and the bank position is INR 222.12 crores. Retention money INR 192.13 crores. Mobilization was INR 296 crores. Unbilled revenue INR 271.59 crores. Inventory INR 244 crores, which includes real estate inventory around INR 39 crores, and trade payables is INR 671 crores. CapEx during the quarter INR 24.83 crores. Total CapEx during the year is INR 105 crores. Working capital days 82 days. Interest-bearing mobilization was 50%. Order inflow during the last year, this is INR 5,057 crores. Fixed price contract 28%. Bid pipeline around INR 3,000-INR 5,000 crores. And regarding order book, first of all, this is segment-wise: Commercial 7.56%, Infrastructure 10.02%, Institutional 37.23%, Residential 11.64%, and Hospital 32.86%. Total, this is net digital 0.69%. And sector-wise, government 83.34%, private 15.66%, region-wise east 37.97%, north 32.86%, west 19.16%, south 4.83%, and overseas 5.18%. That's it. Now you can initiate your questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may please press star and one at this time. The first question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir. And first of all, congratulations on significant order inflow for 2023 and this year also. So, sir, now first, I just wanted to update on the guidance on the top line front particularly. So what kind of revenue are we looking at this year? And also, at the same time, in terms of the margin, this quarter we have seen a significant improvement. So what kind of number we can look at for 2024?
Shravan, hi. The revenue guidance is upward of 20%. The margin will be upwards of the margin attained in this whole financial year. It will be 11% or thereabouts or above. We'll strive to cross the 11% threshold that I had said in my last conference.
Okay. So this 11% is excluding the other income that we can upwards of that we can?
Yes. Yes.
Okay. Second, sir, this 20%, what's the possibility that we can go to even 25%-30%? Is there a possibility, or the new order that particularly the station development there we are seeing it will take some time before it starts kicking in, so in terms of design, it will take time, and that's what we are seeing, only just a 20% growth for this year.
Yeah. You answered your question yourself. While there is a probability that we will cross 20%, but the biggest order is the station, and it is going to take about four months before we actually break ground. We've seen that with the station that we are doing in Chandigarh. It's taken four to five months to get the designing done, get it approved. And now we are beginning to break ground there. So we expect the same to happen here in Mumbai since this is much larger, and the complexity in terms of coordinating various aspects of design is much higher. So it will take that much time before we start generating revenue from that one project. Yes. That's why we are being conservative when we are saying that there will be a revenue increase of about 20% or thereabouts.
Okay. And in terms of now, when we say we have a 3,000 to 5,000 crore kind of a pipeline and we have already received a 3,751 crore inflow, so how much more now are we looking at to add? And is there also we are looking at any such big station development project?
As far as station development projects are concerned, we are evaluating our options going forward, but the focus is going to be on successfully executing these two jobs that we have got. As far as the further order inflow during this year, I think it will be in the range of about INR 2,000-INR 2,500 crores.
Okay. So then does that mean that at a consistent level also we can look at 20% plus kind of a growth for at least four or five years?
I think so. Yes.
Okay. Okay. Lastly, the CapEx for this year, how much are we looking at, particularly on the station redevelopment? Do we have to spend some extra?
Look, station redevelopment, nothing extra per se, which will be different from other building projects because out of a total, say, area, nearly 60%, two million sq ft are fresh buildings where we will have to spend on shuttering. Even if you take a look at our CapEx this year, the year gone by, we've done a CapEx of INR 105 crores, out of which nearly 50% is on shuttering and the rest is on major equipment. Going forward, we are looking at a nearly 20%-25% increase in the CapEx this year. Should be in the range of about INR 125 crores.
In terms of the working capital, likely to remain the same. Is there any improvement that we have seen post March? Because I think slightly the data this has increased versus December, 63 days to 82. Net net, on the broader levels, are we looking at some further improvement in the working capital days?
Yes. Working capital days, I think should remain around 275 days. This is because of last finalization of most of the bills. That's why our planning has been increased and working capital days have been increased as of 31st March. But I think so going forward, this would be around 70-75 days.
Okay, and lastly, sir, waste end can land anything in terms of the monetization or the stand remains the same?
It remains the same.
Okay. Okay. Thank you and all the best, sir.
Thank you, Shravan. Thank you.
Thank you. Anyone who wishes to ask a question at this time, they may please press star and one. The next question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir.
Good afternoon.
Two questions from my side, sir. First of all, congratulations on a very good quarter and a year. So first question on the CSMT redevelopment, our bid numbers are far lower than L2. Is it par? Can you expect a similar margin which you do in the rest of the order book? That's the first question, sir.
It was a strategic bid, and we are confident of our bid. And whatever margins we take when we are preparing a bid, the same have been taken as far as this project is also concerned. And our bid was correctly priced, can be seen from the fact that the other two large stations, which were bid out, have been recalled.
Understood, sir. And second question, is there any slow-moving order in our order book? And what were the percentages of it in the total order book?
I don't think in the days gone by, the slow-moving orders were the orders in West Bengal, which the project had been completed. The auditorium was inaugurated in the last quarter. And then the Gardanib agh in Patna, that also part of that project has been inaugurated, and the rest will be completed in this year. And the veterinary university and hospital, that project has also picked up speed. So no, I don't think there are any slow-moving orders in our order book at the moment.
Understood, sir. Thank you and all the best. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Parvez Qazi from Nuvama Group. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. Congratulations for a great set of numbers.
Parvez, thank you.
A couple of questions from my side. We have obviously surpassed expectation on order intake, I think both in FY 2023 and whatever has transpired in the last two months. How do we see the competitive intensity currently? Has it come down? Because these are large-sized projects, you think we have probably done better than what we were expecting?
So to answer your second question first, yes, we have done better than what we were expecting. The situation as far as the competitive intensity is concerned is very peculiar. In some of the larger projects, the intensity is lower because, as you said, not many companies qualify, right? But whether it will remain the same or not, if the government, our information is that maybe some departments may go for, they may allow JVs because some of our peers have bid indiscriminately on some of these larger station projects. So we are still not very clear how the competitive intensity will pan out.
On the private sector side, where also the order pipeline is improving because delivery is key on account of RERA, there we feel the competitive intensity is going to be lesser because large real estate developers are looking for construction entities who have a track record of delivering on time.
In fact, that was going to be my second question. I think we have taken some orders from private real estate developers. Now, NCR as a market really is doing very well on the housing side. So can we expect you to maybe look for more orders there from reputed developers?
Yes. I've mentioned that in our last call also, that in the longer term, we would like the private sector to also play a larger role in our total order book. And with that aim in mind, we have started looking at reputed developers. We've won an order from DLF, from Puri, and certain other blue chip clients are there who continue to be a part of our order book. And yes, going forward, this will be a focus area for us.
Sure. In terms of state government payment, how is the situation now?
As I mentioned in response to an earlier question, Bengal, where the state being slightly cash-strapped, we have got Milan Mela, the project which we completed about five, six months ago. We've got most of our payments from that project. Only the add-on GST impact is pending. As far as the auditorium is concerned, which we completed in the last quarter, there also final bills are under process. So those monies should also come in. As far as Bihar is concerned, from Bihar Medical, from Chapra - no, sorry, from the Chief Minister's Constituency, that project is partly complete. Money has also come in. Chapra, we are expecting - we've been told that being the Deputy Chief Minister's Constituency, that also they are focusing to complete in this year. So as far as we are concerned, I don't think there are any major funds which are stuck up with any state government.
Sure. And a couple of questions for Satbeer Singh. Sir, what would be our gross debt as that FY 2023 ends?
Hold on. It's around 390 crores.
I'm talking about gross debt, not letters.
Gross? You are asking for the.
Gross debt.
Gross debt. Gross debt is negligible. This is INR 2 crores, 259 lakhs.
Okay. Sure. Thanks. All the best for the future.
Thank you.
Thank you. Anyone who wishes to ask a question at this time, they may please press star and one. Next question is from Deepika Bhandari from Phillip Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question. My question pertains to, sir, our revenue for the fourth quarter was a little lower than our expectation. So what were the headwinds that we have received in this quarter?
Revenue? So yeah, it is slightly lower because a couple of projects being designed, projects designing process, being EPC projects, the designing process took a little longer. As I said in answer to one of the earlier questions, Chandigarh Station, it has taken a while for us to hit the ground. As also NIT Patna, where now the designs have been approved and we've ramped up execution.
Okay. Okay. So also, sir, our debt is negligible, but our interest cost has risen significantly QOQ. Can you give us the break-up and how do we see the interest cost? I mean, what do we budget for FY 2022?
I think if you see the entire year, our interest costs have come down by half a percentage point. I think it was about 1.6% last financial year, and FY 2023, it's about 1.1%. Last year, this was INR 43.72 crores. This year, finance cost is INR 33.07 crores. And as a percentage, it has come down by about half a percent.
Okay. So, sir, do we expect the range to go on the similar level going forward?
I think so, yes.
Okay. Sir, our last question, sir, this payment, how's the payment cycle from the state government right now? Last time, we said that the post-new government payment inflow has increased from Bihar and other states.
Deepika, I did mention that when I was answering Parvez's question that Bengal and Bihar, these were two critical states where last time around there was a bit of a cash crunch, but things have improved.
Okay. So that's it from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yogesh Bhatia from Sequent Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Congratulations on a very good set of numbers.
Thanks, Yogesh.
I missed the earlier information that can I get a breakdown of your order book? How much is from the real estate, private sector, and from the other sectors? This is 17%. This is private, and government is 83%. 17% is private and 83% is government, correct?
Yes. Yes.
Okay. And government mainly, it is state government or central government? How do we define that?
So no, it's a combination of state government and central government. So offhand, out of a total, do we have that breakup? State government, central government, do we have? No. So we are just to give you an idea, we are working in Assam, we are working in Himachal, we are working in Bihar. West Bengal, the projects are over, almost over. So in Bihar, we have, I think, a total order book of about 2,000 crores, out of which unexecuted would be about 1,300 crores. In Assam, we have projects worth about 1,000 crores. These are approximate figures. We will get back to you. Satbeer will get back to you. Yeah. And in Himachal, we have projects worth 600, how much?
776 unexecuted.
776 unexecuted, out of which one is private?
100.
So, about 676 unexecuted. Primarily, these are the three state governments that we are working with.
Okay. So, sir, we mentioned that our unexecuted order book is INR 12,000 crores, and.
As on date.
As on date. Yeah. Okay. But these three states make up only INR 3,700 crores. So what is the remaining unexecuted order book from the government? This is 37%. This is 37%.
37%.
remaining unexecuted order book, again, to give you broad numbers, is going to be the Jammu AIIMS, which is a central government project, and the big daddy of all projects is CSTM project, which is INR 2,450 crores, which we have yet to begin execution, which is again RLDA central government project. And Chandigarh Station, about INR 470 crores, again a central government project. NIT Patna, which is about INR 500 crores, a central government project.
Okay. Thank you, sir. If I have anything else, I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bharanidhar Vijayakumar from Spark Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir.
Good afternoon.
Yeah. So there is a common commentary running across.
Ravi, may I request you to switch to handset mode and come on.
Yeah. Your voice is not clear.
It's very faint.
Is it better now?
It is.
Sure. So I was telling there's a common thread across contractors highlighting this year could be challenging both, say, order inflow and execution near the end of the financial year due to the upcoming general election. So what is your view on that, sir?
So I don't think so. I think we are one of the key things or factors that we are comfortably placed is because we have a very healthy order book, one. And secondly, the challenge that I foresee is that since the order pipeline across the sector is very robust, the challenge I foresee is availability of manpower, skilled manpower. Hello? Did I answer your question?
So, Bharanidhar Vijayakumar , your line is unmuted. If your question is answered, it seems there's no response from the line, sir. We will move to our next caller. That is from the line of Dhruvesh Sanghvi from Prospero Tree. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Congratulations on fantastic numbers.
Thanks.
Just thinking a little bit ahead, sir, while we were—if I compare it from a five, six years perspective, we used to execute around INR 1,500-1,600 crores. And you used to say that we will, in the four, five years, reach to a INR 3,000 crore mark, which we are almost there. And from here, can we say that in a similar fashion, we will probably in the next three to four years start executing approximately INR 5,000 crore range per year? Is that a fair direction to think?
I think so, yes.
Okay. So then in terms of the business, when we are relatively smaller, the risks associated to certain projects are also relatively well-managed. But what kind of new risk can arise as the size increases? Or no, with the size increasing, it is actually reverse than what I am probably saying, especially when we are dealing with governments, state and center both.
No, what you're saying is something that I've always said in all our investor calls or investor meets, that when a company grows, you make a quantum jump across a threshold from one level to another. Actually, in our case, reverse economy of scale kicks in because it is. We're still dependent on labor. There is organized construction techniques or industrial techniques are still not that much a part of our industry because standardization is very low. So one has to be very, very watchful when one is approaching the threshold or making that quantum jump. That is why over the last five years or 10 years, we've always grown conservatively. Our appetite has been limited. So that is why we projected 15%-20% growth.
We have, based on our experience in the past, we've tried to plug the gaps which normally lead to increased pilferages or lesser efficiencies and try and do our due diligence on the kind of clientele that we look to add to our existing clients, list of clients. So going forward, we will continue to do that, and more so, especially at this time when we are looking to cross this threshold and look to becoming a 5,000 crore revenue-making company over the next four, five years. So we will probably, our due diligence will increase further.
Okay, sir. Thank you. Thanks a lot. And that was my only question.
Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to our participants, please press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Prateek Sethia from iThought PMS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, how are you seeing data centers as an opportunity? And how big do you think it can become over the next few years? And related to this is, do we already have anything in our order book?
Yeah. Actually, we're doing two data centers. One is for Google through Adani. Adani is our client in Noida, where about 40% of the job is done. Our value of the work is about INR 215 crores. The second data center we've just started for RBI through their subsidiary, IFTAS, in Bhubaneswar, where we are in the process of casting the foundation. This is to be completed in the next year and a half. Engineers India Limited is the nodal agency, government agency or a PMC there. Now, to answer the first part of your question, I don't see this as a very big opportunity. About six to eight months ago or nine months ago, we were looking at this as a big opportunity, but I don't think this is a major opportunity considering the size of the projects which are being tendered out.
So on the one side, we've just won this big order of INR 2,450 crores, which may be an outlier, but now we are bidding for a number of projects which are in excess of 800, 900 crores. So whereas the data center opportunities are 200, 250, 300 crores. And that too, what we are seeing is clients are cannibalizing these projects. So going forward, this is not a focus area for us.
Okay. Understood. All right, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nikhil Abhyankar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Sir, can you just brief us upon the station redevelopment opportunity that is available today? And you've already said that Delhi and Ahmedabad station redevelopment tenders will be done again. So are we looking to participate in it given that the bids were extravagantly high?
So it is a part of the pipeline. Let's see. We are keeping our options open.
Okay. And sir, can you just mention what is the total opportunity for station redevelopment?
Look, it's a big opportunity. But again, other than the bigger stations, we are slightly wary of the smaller ones because the competitive intensity is very high.
Okay. In the smaller ones, the competition is high, and the larger ones, so we'll focus on the larger ones only.
Yeah.
Okay. And in the initial remarks, I missed retention money and mobilization advance. Can I just get those?
I think Sadbeer will take you through those numbers, Satbeer.
Retention Money is INR 192 crores. Mobilization Advance is INR 296 crores.
296 crores. Okay, sir. Thank you. That's all from me.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is a follow-up question from the line of Bharanidhar Vijayakumar from Spark Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir. Apologies, I got dropped out.
So your voice is still low, Mr. Kumar. May I request you to use the handset?
Yeah. Apologies, my call got dropped before I could get to my second question. Can you give a color of split of this INR 3,000-INR 5,000 crore bid pipeline according to, say, subsegments, say, station redevelopment or hospitals or residential real estate?
So there are two big orders that we've recently bid out, which are about 2,500 crores for NBCC redevelopment, Sarojini Nagar and Delhi. Then we bid out for Max Healthcare, two projects, which are also about 1,500 crores. And then there are certain private education institutions for which we bid out. This would be about another 700 crores and some private real estate developers in Bangalore and Hyderabad and in Delhi, which would be about another 800-1,000 crores.
Okay. Great. I think that gives a very good color of your bid pipeline, sir. What would be your order inflow expectation for 2024, sir?
I said, as I mentioned, this financial year, up to date, we've got orders worth INR 3,700 crores and another maybe INR 2,500 crores.
Understood, sir. Understood. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Sir, this is a break-up of bid pipeline that you mentioned. So any specific in terms of the bids that we have already submitted, when likely to be open?
As far as the private bids are concerned, [Foreign language] वहां तो उनके साथ तो discussion [Foreign language]चल रहा है। There public opening [Foreign language]नहीं होता, but discussion is happening. As far as the government, ये जो NBCC वाले मैंने बोले, इसमें तीन bids आई हैं। दोनों दो bids थीं, इसमें तीन bidders ने bid किया है। So I think they are evaluating the qualification criteria of these bidders. They should be opened in the next one month.
Okay. Got it. And sir, in terms of the non-fund-based limit, what's the limit and how much we have utilized? Particularly the non-fund-based, so definitely nothing utilized.
At present, this is INR 750 crores approximately, and unutilized limit around INR 250 crores.
250 crores. Okay. Okay. Okay. Got it.
Yeah. Next question, please.
Yes. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chetan Doshi from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir. Thank you for taking my question and congratulations on good set of numbers.
Thank you.
Sir, my question was on the CSMT project. So we should be expecting some mobilization advances initially, or it will be increased to like 5% now and 5% later? How does it work in terms of mobilization advance?
Vikas, you want to answer that?
Sir, Vikas, the line just got dropped. We're reconnecting Vikas.
So is it like the Chandigarh one also? Same? How does Chandigarh also be relinquished?
In CSTM, we will, as we've done, our policy is that because on all these government projects, the advances are interest-bearing. So going forward, we are limiting our exposure to interest. So in CSTM, also, we are preparing our budget, our cash flows, but based on initial estimate, we will take about 50% of the advance that we are entitled to.
Sir, we have Vikas, reconnected.
I think I've answered that question since Vikas, it dropped off. So any further question on this? Did I answer that question?
You just want to reconfirm you said 50% advances, which we will go for?
Roughly, yeah. Because we are making it a conscious effort on our side to start to build up cash reserves and start utilizing those reserves to get our interest or finance costs down further.
But sir, this will also be interest-bearing. Our working capital loan will be.
That's why I'm saying, since this is going to be a capital-intensive project, we are going to, we will take the advances, utilize the advances from the government, but not totally, to keep our interest costs low.
One more request. We have stopped doing presentation for quite some time on each call. We said we will be uploading, but we don't see that. So in terms of order backlog breakup, usually we used to get some top 10, 12 project order backlog in the presentation, which was really helpful.
So they were saying it's uploaded on our website. Our investor presentation has been updated. Presentation is uploaded.
Sir, in terms of order backlog breakup, can we get something on the Excel where we can come to know what is the status of various other projects also?
We will share it. We will share it.
Okay. Thanks, sir. Thanks, sir. Sorry, I missed out on the presentation. My bad, sir. Thanks a lot, sir.
No problem. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Deepika Bhandari from Phillip Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for taking my follow-up question. Just a couple of questions from my side. In terms of our net order book as of FY23, at the end of FY23, what portion of the order book was not contributing to revenue, which is the projects that are not started, the total portion of order book that was not started at the end, as on date 31st March?
I think as on date 31st March, Chandigarh Station had not.
Which one?
She said which has not contributed to revenue. It was only Chandigarh. Chandigarh Station.
Okay, sir. And now, after the new orders and including the L1 orders, what would be our fixed price contract out of the 12,000 crore order book?
I think Satbeer had mentioned it's about 28%.
28%.
Yeah.
Okay. That's it from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prateek Sethia from iThought PMS. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity once again. Sir, what are the scale advantages do we have in our line of business?
Key advantages?
Yes.
In our line, you're asking what Ahluwalia, the advantage that Ahluwalia has over its peers?
Yes. I mean, in the EPC construction business that we are in, are there any scale advantages?
That's my secret. Why should I divulge it? Anyway, that was said in a lighter way. No. I mentioned in my past interaction, Ahluwalia is, to my mind, the only true blue EPC company in the country. We have in-house divisions doing electromechanical works, low-voltage works, building facade works, finishing works. We only outsource highly specialized works like OTs or elevators, escalators, so on and so forth. Otherwise, all skill sets over the last decade or so have been built in-house, developed in-house. So that is even Larsen & Toubro, for that matter, does not have these skill sets in-house. They outsource air conditioning works, electrical works, plumbing, firefighting works.
So that is one advantage that we have. And these entities going forward, like building facade works, they also are independent profit centers where they are doing projects where the parent civil company is also not working. So that is one key advantage. Second, because we are present in all the key states from where labor is sourced, like Bihar and Bengal and Odisha, we have a better handle on this resource, which going forward, as I mentioned earlier, is going to be in short supply.
Understood. And sir, as we grow in scale, do you expect our cost structure to increase at the same rate, or do you think there will be some operating leverage taking it?
Look, on the short-term side, it will grow on the same pace. But we have started at the back end, we've started taking some steps like digitization or digital transformation to increase our efficiencies. In the long term, I feel the benefits of increased or economies of scale will kick in.
Understood, sir. And with regards to our business mix between government and private, over the next three to four years, how do you see this changing from the current levels of 83% government?
More equitable. That's our goal. Since the private sector has also started revising, there is a lot of work there. And not necessarily only in the residential side, also on the commercial real estate and also industrial. We have, in this last quarter, bid for three greenfield industrial projects also. So over the next five years, we'd like to bring it at more equitable levels as far as the government and private sector is concerned. If not 50-50, maybe 60-40. That's what our goal is.
Sure. And within private, like you mentioned, real estate, beyond real estate, you will have other aspects as well, like beyond residential real estate.
Yes.
So can we still say that residential real estate will be the prime mover, and then maybe commercial and industrial?
Yes. And also institutional, for that matter. I mentioned a short while ago that we bid for two large Max Healthcare projects. We're seeing activity in hospitals. We're seeing a bit of activity in hotels also. And clients like Amity or Bennett, who are into education, they continue to grow. So yeah, institutional sector also provides scope.
All right. And sir, finally, with regards to our finance costs, which is coming down, which is a very great sign, and it's coming down as a percentage of sales every year in the last two, three years. And you mentioned that your endeavor is to bring it down further by managing the cash better. So do you expect that it can actually, I mean, we are already at 1.2% of sales. Is there scope to bring it down to below one as well?
That's what our goal is in this financial year.
All right. All right, sir. Thank you so much. Wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Parikshit Kandpal from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. With congratulations on a great quarter, sir.
Hello.
Thank you. Yeah. Thank you so much.
Yeah. So my question is on the margin. So you have said that we are looking to do 11% plus an EBITDA margin. So if I look at the size of the projects, they have gone up significantly, which has some scale benefits. So that's a number of sides here. The commodity inflation may be now stabilized and receding. So but still, we're not very confident of going back to the 13%-14% margin or 12%-13% margin. It's still at 11%. So what could be the potential reasons you see the margins not expanding from here on?
It's too early to say that. As I said, one of you only mentioned elections are around the corner. So there will be some degree of uncertainty. Though we feel we are insulated because of our healthy order book. The numbers, you say, inflation has receded. But yeah, it's receded a few months ago also, then went up again. So especially with election around the corner, we don't know what impact is there going to be on the prices. In the past, we've seen key construction materials like cement and steel going up closer to elections. And secondly, I mentioned labor pricing because labor as a resource is in short supply. And as the construction further picks up pace, this paucity of skilled labor is going to increase further. So this is something which actually worries us. So that is why our projection or guidance for EBITDA is around 11%.
Because even your fixed price order book is now 28%, so that is not a very big number. Even if I assume that this station redevelopment project is pass-through? Is it having escalation pass-through?
It's linked to the RBI index. Yes. There is an escalation there.
Okay. So it's more like you want to be conservative than rather like giving any bigger number. So given the.
We've always been conservative.
Yeah. I know. Okay. The second question is on you said that you're not going to pick up the advances from this station redevelopment project. Only 50% of that you'll pick up. So how will you do the funding? I mean, are you going to take an increase in higher allocation of working capital then? How do you intend to then do construction?
No, no. As I said, 50% we'll take because we want the client's skin in the game too. And rest, we will manage from internal accruals. The company is focused. The management is focused on remaining zero debt.
But you're confident that despite the bids, huge variation in the CSMT Mumbai bids, you'll still be able to make that 12%-13% kind of EBITDA margin on this project?
I never mentioned 12%-13%. I'm saying that we are confident we will maintain our usual margin. That's how we bid. And that margin is there in our bid. It's not that we've been over-aggressive.
Okay. So usually, I think we used to get 12%-13%. So I'm assuming that similar kind of margins, EBITDA margins will also be there in this project.
I've given guidance of 11% across the company across the year. So yeah. So this is a Design-Build project. To specifically answer your question and assuage your worry, we've been asked this since this bid was opened by you and other peers of yours that the worry in the market is that our bid is over-aggressive. It isn't. If you were to see, the estimate of the government was about 1,850 crores. If memory serves me right, they've awarded it to us at about nearly 30% above their price. And in government sector, what happens is there is an estimate, and then post the bid, there is a justification prepared. And then the accepted value has to be within 10% in extreme cases of the justification amount. So the department or the ministry has prepared the justification, and we are about 10% higher than their justification.
As far as our numbers are stark when you compare them to, or all of you've been comparing them to Ahmedabad and Delhi. Now, those numbers were ridiculous numbers. The bids were ridiculous, if I may say so, which government, no government except the Banana Republic can award jobs which are 80% above their estimate prices. So they were bound to get canceled. I think the microscope has to be on those bids, not on our bids. We are confident about our bid.
Okay. Just for reassurance and nothing else. I know government costs. So just wanted to get reassurance on that.
Yes. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Naitik Mota from Sequent Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity, sir. So my first question is regarding the execution of projects in FY 24. So we have seen that in multiple parts of the country in earlier monsoon, as I said, and it has halted quite some construction activity. So do we see any impact of that for us? And will it slow H1 or probably Q1 numbers, and then major growth would start coming from H2?
You're right. The monsoon has impacted our projects in Assam and a couple of other states also. Bihar also started impacting, so yes, Q1 numbers, Q1 and Q2, yes, are traditionally impacted by monsoon.
Okay. And sir, sorry for if I'm reiterating, but regarding the margin, so we have given a very conservative guidance of 11% margin. And seeing the 20%-25% revenue growth that we are planning to see, and raw material prices also have cooled off. So can we see 12%-13% margin that we used to do earlier, or is this also an effect of the share of public sector projects that has increased in our total order book against the private sector?
No. So what was your last statement? Private sector [Foreign language]के बारे में क्या आपने पूछा? Sorry, [Foreign language]आपका[Foreign language] voice [Foreign language] थोड़ा[Foreign language] audible [Foreign language]नहीं था.
So, I'm comparing to the time when we used to do 13% margin. The share of public sector projects in our order book has increased quite some against the private sector. So is that the reason why we are conservative on margin side?
Yeah. You're right. We've always maintained that private sector, if the projects happen on time, the fund flow is maintained by the developer or the client. The margins are higher. So that is why in the longer term, we want to maintain a more equal ratio between private and public sector. So that is that. But we maintain our guidance of 11% or thereabouts for this financial year at least because there are a number of uncertainties going forward, especially the elections.
Okay, sir. That will be answered. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that would be our last question for today. I now hand the conference back to the management for their closing comments. Thank you, and over to you.
Thank you so much, everybody, for joining in. Look forward to talk to you again at the end of the next quarter. Thank you. All the best.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Ambit Capital, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. And you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.