Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the JSW Energy Limited Q4 FY 2023 results conference call hosted by Antique Stock Broking. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Rohit Natarajan from Antique Stock Broking. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Gavin. Good evening, everyone. First of all, I would like to thank the JSW Energy management for giving us this opportunity to host the post-earnings for QFY 2023 earnings conference call. Today, we have with us from the management Mr. Prashant Jain, Joint Managing Director and CEO, Mr. Pritesh Vinay, Director Finance and CFO, and Mr. Vikas Chaudhary, Head of Investor Relations and Treasury. We will begin the call with the opening remarks from the management, post which we can start the Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. The year gone by has been very, very interesting year for the power sector. We have seen in last 30 years highest ever power demand growth during the year at the rate of 9.5%. This came in on a backdrop of 8.5% power demand growth in FY 2022. This is showing us certain structural change in terms of the power demand growth. As we speak, we saw the total capacity in the country at 416 gigawatts, which talks about a total net capacity addition of 16.6 gigawatts, of which majority, which is 15.3 gigawatt, was renewable. The important point what we have to see is that out of the 16 GW of the net capacity increase, the net generation is close to 4-4.5 GW.
The net demand increase was approximately 14 GW. That means 9.5 GW of the over capacity got absorbed, and the similar was the situation in the previous year in which also 17 GW was the total capacity addition, of which 15.5 GW was the renewable capacity. The point I am trying to say is that enough net capacity addition is not taking place as compared to the net demand increase in the country, which is also reflecting into the abrupt increase in the power prices into the energy exchanges. Second thing also in, is also to be seen is that not enough volume is available in the merchant market which is getting cleared. In the last year, in day-ahead market, the total volume was 51 billion units, which was down by 21% as compared to the previous year.
The tariff increased by 36% at INR 5.97 as compared to INR 4.39 previous year. The thermal coal prices are continuously falling. In the Q4, the thermal coal prices came down by 37% on an average of $148. It has been continuously declining in the current quarter also. In April, average prices were $130, May it was $118. As we are speaking, the prices have touched to $102. On a lower calorific value basis, we are in a double-digit number. We continue to see the moderating coal prices and power demand is very interestingly increasing very in a very robust way. In coming to the company, this year has been for delivering the promises. JSW Energy reported second-highest ever EBITDA and second-highest PAT ever.
The last time we saw 2015 during the high merchant prices and shortage of power, we saw such kind of a EBITDA, and also in 2016 we saw the similar kind of a PAT. In last seven years, eight years, this is the highest ever operating EBITDA as well as the profit after tax. Our business has also transformed as compared to the previous year when at that point of time our 55%, 60% of the capacity was untied . We were dependent on the vagaries of the merchant market, power demand scenario and supply scenario. Today, 85% of our portfolio is completely tied up. This 85% I'm talking if I'm considering Ind-Barath capacity also once that get commissioned. So we have a very strong visibility of all our cash flows going forward.
In terms of the good development, we have now won 2.4 gigawatt hour of the pumped storage bid and 1 gigawatt hour of the battery storage bid. These are the two projects which we will be constructing. This is giving us the first mover advantage into the energy storage space. India is at the inflection point of the energy storage requirement point of view because today our baseload power demand is 185 GW, whereas the total renewable capacity which is installed is 173 GW. The moment baseload power demand and renewable capacity equals and renewable capacity overshoots, at that point of time grid will start becoming unstable and which is going to happen in next 18-24 months time frame.
Because at a time when the sun is at its peak, at that point of time is the renewable power, all power is coming. At that point of time, you cannot turn down your thermal capacity to zero. That's where the grid storage requirement comes into the play. CEA has forecasted that by 2030, 322 gigawatt hour of the energy storage capacity will be required. In that they, like the tenders have started coming in and we are getting the early mover advantage, and we have already tied up or locked in 3.4 gigawatt hour of the capacity which is going into the construction. We will be generating higher than the normative returns in these projects.
Also we have already secured close to 72 gigawatt hour of the hydro pumping storage projects, where we have got the allocation, and we are in the process of taking the necessary approval. Of that, this one hydro pumping storage will be going into the construction this year. I'm happy to share also another interesting landmark decision which our board has taken today. We are starting the India's largest green hydrogen project, which will be 3,800 tons per year capacity. This project will be set up to produce the green steel by JSW Steel at Vijayanagar. This project will be tied up using the 100% renewable power, which will be consuming 25 megawatt of the round the clock renewable power.
On an installed basis it will be approximately 80 megawatt of the renewable capacity, along with the pumping storage will be required, battery storage will be required. This project will get commissioned in next 18-24 months time frame. This will be on a cost plus mid-teen ROE basis for a seven-year contract. During the seven-year period, the entire plant will be amortized. Post that it will be on the basis of variable cost and ROE basis between the parties. This is going to be the largest project in the country, first time for the green steel manufacturing and the first project where the entire PPA is fully secured.
This will be giving us a huge flip and advantage for going forward because as we have spoken in the past, that we have created our own microgrid and solar and wind farm capacity along with the pumping storage, and we will be able to enter into the electron to molecules business. Additionally, we are also contracting the entire green oxygen which will be produced, which will be the 8 times of the capacity of the green hydrogen. That will be also sold to JSW Steel. Another interesting piece which I wanted to talk about is the solar module manufacturing facility. We had informed during the quarter that we have got a NOI under the PLI scheme by Government of India for 1 gigawatt hour, 1 gigawatt per year capacity for wafer, cell and module manufacturing facility.
For which we have been allocated INR 320 crore of the PLI. The total project cost is going to be INR 1,600 crore. In addition to that, we are finalizing the package from the state government. This project will be commissioned in 18-24 months period. This will enable us to completely backward integrate for our own captive requirement of the module manufacturing. Wherein we will be able to produce the latest technology module, solar PV module at the most competitive price there. Our positioning will further strengthen to remain a lowest cost renewable power producer in the country. The next piece which I also want to touch upon is about the Ind-Barath. We had completed the acquisition of the Ind-Barath asset.
This is going to be one of the lowest cost completed project, less than INR 4 crore per megawatt. It had plant, including the FGD installation. The interesting piece is on a Coal India linkage prices, this project will be one of the lowest cost fuel cost power producer, close to INR 1.30 to INR 1.40 will be the fuel price on a Coal India linkage price. The first unit is expected to get commissioned in the first half of the current financial year, and the second unit will be expected to commission in the last quarter of the current financial year. We are seeing that this is going to be hugely value accretive for us because of the high merchant power price
s. We are expecting that on a conservative basis, we will be making INR 2-INR 4 kind of range for the fixed cost recovery, which will be very, very value accretive for this particular project. We also completed the Mytrah acquisition during the last quarter. This is one of the greatest example and one of the largest acquisition in the renewable space. Originally, we had envisaged that the EV will be INR 10,500 crore. As against that, we completed the transaction at INR 10,150 crore. For a installed capacity of 1,753 MW, this translates to INR 5.77 crore per MW of the capacity, as compared to today's replacement cost in excess of INR 7.4 crore-INR 7.5 crore per MW. The normalized EBITDA of the asset will be INR 1,650 crore, which translate to INR 941 crore per GW.
Today, on a competitive landscape, the best bid which we are winning at JSW Energy also, the per gigawatt EBITDA is around INR 840 crore-INR 870 crore per gigawatt as compared to that INR 941 crore. That translated to the hugely value accretive transaction. We have given a guidance that from a normative from an actual EBITDA of INR 1,200 crore, we will be going for INR 1,650 crore in 12-18 months time frame, of which INR 400 crore or INR 390 crore to be precise was coming from the generation increase and grid availability and machine availability, and INR 60 crore was coming from improvement in operations and maintenance cost. I am happy to share that in last 45 days, we have already made up and running 103 wind turbines out of 128 turbines which were down.
Balance 25 turbines, they will be also up and running by first week or second week of June. Thereby, we will be getting the generation much, much ahead as compared to earlier envisaged. Same is the situation in the in terms of the machine availability improvement. We have already improved the machine availability by 500 basis points, and the performance ratio in terms in the solar generation has been also significantly improved. We are expecting that the guidance what we had given, the 12-18 months time frame, which will be much, much ahead of the schedule. During the current financial year itself, we will be achieving the normative EBITDA run rate, what we had forecasted earlier, which is INR 1,650 crore.
I am expecting on a most conservative basis this year also, as compared to INR 1,200 crore EBITDA last year, we will be doing between INR 1,400 crore-INR 1,470 crore EBITDA in the current financial year because some of the high wind season, which is right now going on, will not be available for us for generation. I'm coming to the very important subject, which is our strategy which we have explained in 2021, wherein we had given a formal guidance that JSW Energy is going to be a 10 gigawatt company by FY 2025 and 20 gigawatt company by FY 2030. In that particular strategy, we had spelled out that our EBITDA will be going up to 2.5x in 10 gigawatt and 5x in, at 20 gigawatt capacity.
Because we are doing exceptionally well, we have already locked in 10 gigawatt of the operating capacity, which will be completed in the calendar year 2024. In addition to that, we will be also completing 1 gigawatt wafer, cell, and module manufacturing facility and also 1 gigawatt hour of the battery storage capacity. Because of this, our cash flows are also improving dramatically. We are coming out with a enhanced guidance, which will be improved by 25%. Our revised strategy 2.0 is by 2030, we will become a 20 gigawatt generation capacity and 40 gigawatt hour of the energy storage capacity, along with green hydrogen facility of 3,800 ton per annum, and also 1 gigawatt of wafer, cell, and module capacity. All this is without any equity dilution, only from the internal accruals.
What we are talking about is that earlier guidance was that by FY 2030, we will be having the leverage of net debt to EBITDA of 4 times. We will be reducing our leverage to 3.5 to 4 times. Our profit after tax and EBITDA will both go up by 25%. We are giving a guidance that our EBITDA will be 6-6.5x in, at 20 GW capacity in FY 2030, as well as our profit after tax will be 7-7.5x, which is also 25% up at 20 GW capacity. It is important to note that on a achieved capacity in FY 2023 basis already we have achieved on a normalized EBITDA of 1.8x and profit after tax at 2x as against what we have guided.
We are quite confident that we are not only doing better, and we will be growing much aggressively. We have given a guidance that we will be doing a capital expenditure of INR 75,000 crore. Now this all is emphasizing a total capital expenditure of INR 112,000 crore, of which INR 35,000 crore has already been deployed, which will get completed in next 18 month timeframe. The important thing which I am also emphasizing and putting up on record that our balance sheet size will grow at 22% CAGR from FY 2023 to FY 2030, while we are de-levering our balance sheet and deploying only our cash flow. Our cash profit yields are going to improve only what we have delivered from here.
With this, I would like to hand over the forum to Pritesh to touch upon the operating performance as well as the gearing ratios and receivable cycles. Over to you, Pritesh.
Thank you very much, Prashant. A very good evening to all of you. Thank you very much for taking time out to join us for our fourth quarter and annual results conference call. Prashant has already set the macro context in terms of what happened to the broader power markets for the year as a whole. In that context, you know, if I were to briefly touch upon the performance for the fourth quarter. Then I'll come to the annual results performance. If you see the net generation for JSW Energy during the fourth quarter was up by 16% YOY to over 5 billion units.
That's what on account of additional renewable energy capacity, like the 225 MW solar plant and the first batch of the SECI 10 project that got commissioned earlier in the year, as well as higher, you know, sales of power on the merchant side as well as the long-term offtake. From a revenue point of view, on a reported basis, you will see that the revenue for the quarter at INR 2,806 crores was up by 6% YOY. I would like to highlight that in Q4 of 2022, there was a truing up order at JSW Hydro for the Karcham Wangtoo plant that had come because of which there was a one-off exceptional impact of INR 525 crores included in the revenues.
Adjusted for that on a like-to-like basis, the revenue for this quarter on a 16% higher net generation is actually up by 32% YOY. This is largely on account of the fact that higher fuel prices on a YOY basis, which led to, you know, a pass-through of the fuel cost also impacting that. Coming to the EBITDA performance, again, after stripping off the EBITDA for exceptionals, including the truing up liability of last year, the EBITDA for the quarter stood at INR 881 crores, which was up by 7% YOY. The adjusted net profits stood at INR 272 crores for the quarter. Wrapping up the year as a whole, if you see for fiscal 2023, the net generation was up by 5% at 21.8 billion units.
The reported headline total revenues was at INR 10,867 crores, which was up almost 25%. Again, the impact of truing up on hydro stood at last year of almost close to INR 600 crores. Adjusted for that YOY, the revenues are up by 33%. EBITDA adjusted for exceptionals for the year as a whole stood at INR 3,817 crore, which is up by 5% YOY. The adjusted profit after tax after taking off exceptionals. While we are truing up liability exceptionals last year, this year we had an exceptional gain of INR 120 crore in the first nine months due to reversal of a loan that had been given to a third party in the previous years. Adjusted for that on a like-on-like, like-on-like basis, the adjusted net profit at INR 1,348 crore was up by 15% YOY.
That was on the PNL side. Coming to the balance sheet side, and here I would like to set a few things in context. Y ou know, we completed the Mytrah acquisition on 29 March 2023 therefore, the Mytrah assets were available to us from a consolidation as per books point of view, only for two days of the year, till 31 March, whereas the balance sheet is consolidated as of that particular day. Therefore, to make sense out of these numbers, we think that it is important to look at the pro forma basis on a combined basis. I would request everybody, you have access to our presentation which has been uploaded on the website.
If you can please look at slide number 39, which explains the net debt bridge, that would give more clarity in terms of how to interpret the debt levels. As of the quarter and nine months ended December 2022, the total net debt of the company stood at INR 9,840 crores. Of this, INR 6,475 crores was a net debt on the operating companies, and another INR 3,365 crores was the project loans drawn for the capital work in progress. During the quarter, if you see the debt on the operating companies went up by about INR 3,500 crores to just under INR 10,000 crores.
T his incremental debt was largely the balance sheet borrowing that we did at the existing thermal business in order to fund our growth, both for M&A as well as to infuse promoters equity contribution into the ongoing projects. On the operating companies, the net debt stands at roughly INR 10,000 crores. On an underlying INR 3,800 crores of EBITDA, the net debt to EBITDA for the operating companies now stand at 2.6 times. The next batch of debt to look at is the debt on the CWIP. What was INR 3,365 crores has gone up marginally and now stands just north of INR 3,600 crores. For Mytrah , there's a net debt of close to INR 8,600 crores that has come onto the books.
Mytrah , let me spend a few minutes on that in terms of how to look at Mytrah 's performance. Prashant already mentioned in his opening remarks that if you look at the pro forma 12-month performance of Mytrah for the year ended fiscal 2023, it stood at about INR 1,187 crores. The headline net debt stood at INR 8,600 crores. The EBITDA is not normalized. You know, we have a very active asset optimization and performance improvement plan that Prashant already talked about. There are very encouraging signs, and this has an EBITDA potential of INR 1,650 crores. INR 8,600 crores of net debt on a INR 1,650 crore normalized EBITDA translates to about 5.2 times net debt to EBITDA on the Mytrah business.
On a combined basis, Mytrah normalized EBITDA plus the existing debt on the operating business, we have about INR 18,500 crores of net debt, going to be serviced by EBITDA of close to INR 5,500 crores. Therefore, the combined net debt to EBITDA is 3.4 times. If you look at the combined EBITDA, as I said, will be close to INR 5,500 crores for both the businesses for the entire 12 months of fiscal 2024 from a run rate point of view. This is, you know, on a net debt side. I will also like to take a few minutes, you know, on Mytrah's financing itself. You know, this is a very complex transaction, and, you know, a very landmark and benchmark refinancing and debt sizing package, was put in place, immediately.
It is very rare, you know, typically for large sized M&As, the typical model is that you do a bridge financing, acquire the assets, and then you take between six to 12 months to put the permanent capital structure in place. Here, what has happened is that we consummated the deal on 29 March, and we drew down the first tranche of the refinancing facility on 31 March itself. On Mytrah's portfolio per se, while we have talked about, you know, the EBITDA improvement, but there's going to be a substantial benefit below EBITDA as well. You know, there is more than 240 basis points of annualized weighted average interest rate that we have achieved by putting this refinancing and debt sizing package into place.
Which will lead to close to INR 240-250 crores of savings on the finance cost from a run rate point of view from day one itself. That is on the Mytrah financing. Now I will take another moment to talk about, you know, the receivable cycle. I'll break this conversation into two parts. One is the JSW Energy portfolio on its own, without Mytrah. There, if you see, there's been a very encouraging performance there as well. If you look at, you know, one of the particular slides that we have on the receivables cycle. At the end of 31 March 2023, in terms of day sales outstanding, you know, the receivables stood at 60 days of sales compared to 63 days of sales.
You will look at a headline absolute INR grow numbers higher, but that is because of, you know, the higher fuel cost and therefore the higher revenues that we talked about. The right metric to look at is in terms of base sales outstanding. Even within that, if you see, the total amount of overdues that stood at the end of the year were about 20%, close to 20% of the total receivables. We've had very, very healthy collection trend in the last month, you know, month and a half since then. Receivable cycle continues to be healthy. If you look at the Mytrah receivable cycle, you know, that is also a very interesting situation. In the investor presentation, we put one whole slide on that, you know, slide number eight, if you see. Sorry, my bad s lide number 10.
You know, when we had, we were submitting a binding bid, this was, you know, last year when the Mytrah sale process was on. We had, you know, the March 2022 audited numbers, and Mytrah's receivables outstanding were touching almost close INR 1,500 crore . In the last, you know, almost, 12 months, since then, maybe you know, 14, 13-14 months since then, we've seen that that receivable cycle has come down by close to, you know, INR 500 crores during this period. We have put in place a very strong and focused collection efficiency that is also in place. Month on month, you know, what we are collecting vis-à-vis what we are billing is consistently high.
If you look at the bottom left-hand chart on this particular slide, that shows for three particular months on an index basis, you know, we are collecting between 150%-220% higher than what we are billing. We are very confident that we will be able to optimize the receivables cycle of Mytrah portfolio as well to healthy levels within 12 months, which will release a lot of liquidity into the system. In this context, you know, if you look at, you know, the enterprise value that Prashant had talked about of INR 10,150 crores, plus net current assets, this is really going to be a very, very cash-accretive transaction for JSW Energy. Maybe I'll just stop there and operator, we can open the queue for Q&A please.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Good evening, Prashant and Pritesh. You know, I must compliment you on the opening remarks and the growth outlook that you have laid out for the company. My first question is in relation to the Government, which has given a monthly plan to award 15 gigawatts RE capacity every fiscal starting FY 2024. What do you think is likely for this fiscal? That's my first question.
It's a tough call for me because, you know, we are not concentrating more on this, these kind of a bids, as a company because we are still finding that the rates which are getting discovered in these bids are not remunerative for a company like us to undertake the projects and achieve the normative returns what we are targeting. That's why we are not at all following these bids. It's a tough call for me.
Sure. Also, a follow-up on this, given that you are setting up a 1 gigawatt manufacturing facility for modules integrated up to, you know, wafers, does that also mean that it is setting up a platform for you to set up at least 1 gigawatt solar capacity at JSW Energy every year thereafter?
We consider that that kind of a requirement we will be having because most of our requirement what we are contemplating that close to 1.8-2 MW of the kind of a capacity which we are going to build, which will be both by solar and wind put together, and the majority of the capacity which we will be able to utilize.
Sure. Over the next three to five years, in addition to the lock-in capacity of 10 gigawatts, on the generation side, what visibility do you have on group captive generation projects, you know, which is a requirement from the JSW Group, especially JSW Steel?
We have made a medium-term plan and we are looking that we will be having close to 6 GW of kind of a group captive requirement going forward. In addition to that, we are also looking for certain C&I segment. In addition to that, we are also looking for electron to molecule business also. That's how we see that the generating capacity which keep on, we keep on adding will be primarily within the group captive or C&I customer or certain very attractive tenders where there is not a substantial competitive landscape. The way we are, we have been building our business is it's different kind of a energy product segment which are there.
Whether it is battery storage, whether it is pumped storage, hydro or solar, wind, thermal, wherever we find a great opportunity to deploy the capital to generate industry-leading returns for which, in our case, minimum mid-teen returns are most important. That's how we have been deploying our capital, and we will be continuing to do that. In addition to that, we are also scouting inorganic growth opportunities. If any good growth opportunity like Mytrah is available, where we will be getting on a normative equity base, we will be getting north of 16% equity IRR. Whereas the entire transaction for us is a 100% leverage buyout. On a net worth basis, entire thing is value accretive for us. This is how we are contemplating, and we will continue to do that.
Just to clarify, the 6 GW number that you said, group captive plus C&I, is in addition to the 10 GW locked-in capacity?
Absolutely. Absolutely. My guidance, what I'm giving is that we are talking about by FY 2030, we are becoming 20 gigawatt of generation. Of that, we are talking close to six gigawatt will be a group captive in next seven years timeframe, which will be coming up, and another four gigawatt from various other opportunities.
My last question is that MoEFCC has recently approved exemption of pump storage hydro projects from Environmental Impact Assessment. Is this likely to, you know, help speed up your project plan in pump storage hydro? How much capital are you likely to commit to pump storage hydro over the next three years? What is the actual balance sheet investment likely over the same time frame?
Sunil, I already explained that our FY 2030 target is around 40 gigawatt hour of pumped storage capacity. Which means it is going to be close to INR 25,000-26,000 crore of the total capital expenditure we are going to do by FY 2030. First project will be getting into the construction in the current financial year, end of the current financial year, which we have already locked in with Government of Karnataka. This is how we are seeing. Secondly, the approval side, yes, there are a lot of exemptions which are being provided by Ministry of Environment and Forest in terms of EC, in terms of the geotechnical surveys. These are really welcome steps, and these are really going to help us to execute the project at a much faster speed.
I also want to tell you that we are the largest hydropower producer in the country and having the best experience of operating all these assets. For last three and a half, four years, we have been building Kutehr Project, which is going to be the fastest ever built project in spite of the corona wave conditions and various other difficulties which we have built. We have, build the strong execution capability of doing the project, which is primarily done, being done in-house with a small, contractor teams, which is making us more and more confident that, we are one of the best place to, in terms of the industry to execute these projects.
Excellent. I have more questions, but I'll get in the queue now . Those are my best wishes. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, you may please press star one. The next question is from the line of Vivek Ramakrishnan from DSP Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Hello. Congratulations on an excellent performance. My question was around the collections at Mytrah. In terms of how do you manage to accelerate and is there a systemic change that has happened that where, you know, in the future also you'll not see the collections build up or it is any one-off that has happened because of the government scheme? That's my only question. Thank you.
Vivek, thank you for your question. You know, it's the way we do our business and we take pride in doing that, and that's how we maintain our receivable cycling low for all our existing business also. That same thing we are trying to replicate at Mytrah Energy. Of course, one thing which I want to tell you as well as all the audience that there are the structural changes which is taking place in the power sector. The Government of India has taken various very interesting steps which is helping to recover the receivables. At the same time, we are also having the strong relationship and a very good management of the receivable.
Today, if you look at our presence, we are present pan-India and with all kind of a DISCOMs, and we are able to maintain a very low receivable cycle. I can assure you that this is a receivable cycle will be aligned to JSW Energy past performance, and it will be a permanent solution.
Thank you, sir. Good luck. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nikhil Abhyankar from ICICI Securities Limited. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, I've got just one quick question. Can you explain the economics of the battery storage project? Because 50% of our capacity will be reserved for SHAKTI. How do we plan to utilize the remaining capacity, and what will be the cost economics of the storage?
In terms of the storage, the first tender what we have won, we have contemplated two opportunities. Number one opportunity is the ancillary market, which has got opened up, and we are seeing very attractive trend in that particular ancillary market. We see that we will be in a position to generate better return than what we have contracted with SHAKTI. Second thing is we also have the option to make a bid in any of the energy storage bid which is going to come in future. Both the options are available to us. At this point of time, we have considered the ancillary market, where the battery storage power will be scheduled in order to maintain the frequency and the demand.
New protocol guideline which has come up based on which the ancillary market has opened up, and we will be generating much better return than what we have contracted. Later on, we can continue to remain that or we can tie it up in any of the future bids.
Understood, sir. Sir, what portion of our Ind-Barath plant is tied up in with PPA?
We will not be tying it up with during the macro situation. We will keep it.
100% will be for merchant?
Yes. Because this is going to be very low cost. If I say that for example last year average tariff for the entire year was INR 5.96. As I explained on a Coal India linkage price, the fuel price will be INR 1.30. Even if I pay 100% premium on the Coal India linkage price in the e-auction market, my fuel price will be close to INR 2.20. That means I can make around INR 3.50 as a fixed cost into the merchant market. We will be keeping this capacity open for some more years. As and when we see the macro situation changing, we will be going into the long-term market.
Understood, sir. Is the coal tie-up already done with CIL?
Coal is available under the SHAKTI linkage scheme. We will be making the bid and also the spot auction which is being done by the NCL. There is enough coal available in and around the mines which can be done either the SHAKTI scheme or we can do it in the spot auction.
Understood. Thanks a lot and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anuj Upadhyay from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity, sir. Just a few clarifications on Ind-Barath. You just mentioned that the entire capacity will be set up for the merchant. Kindly correct me if I'm wrong, because my earlier assessment was part of this capacity will be tied up towards the module manufacturing side. Is there any change in that?
Anuj, yes. You, you know, initially we were considering that the polysilicon capacity is, we will set up at Orissa. That is very, that's the most important thing in our management agility, that we take a decision on a dynamic situation. Right now, the polysilicon market is becoming overcrowded globally. Last year, the total demand was 800,000 tons. Now China has, is putting up a large capacity of polysilicon. In next 12-14 months timeframe, total capacity will be in excess of 2.5 million tons, which is sufficient to produce 850 gigawatts of the solar panel. Last year, the solar PV panel demand was 260 gigawatts. Because of this, polysilicon prices which were ruling at $42 per kg has come down to $16 per kg and are expected to come down to below $10 per kg.
That is why we have taken a decision to not to venture into the polysilicon capacity at this point of time. Because of which we have also refrained in participating in PLI scheme for polysilicon to module capacity. However, we can look at the situation two years, three years down the line, but we don't want to be caught onto the wrong cycle. That's why we are not looking at any polysilicon manufacturing facility, at least in the near foreseeable future, until this demand and supply situation is favorable to set up such kind of a facility in India. Therefore, the entire capacity will remain open up for the merchant tariff because we are in a position to capitalize in this kind of a scenario.
Okay. Just to follow up on this capacity of around 2.5 million that you mentioned for China coming. Sorry, 50 gigawatt. Any timeline by when this will get commissioned?
Another 12-14 months time frame, this all capacity is coming up in China.
Okay. On your CapEx plan, sir, you mentioned around INR 75,000 crores of incremental CapEx would now be required over next 6-7 years time period, and for which we won't be diluting anything. Could you just elaborate further on what kind of internal cash flows we could or likely be generating to refund the equity CapEx on this capacity? Lastly [crosstalk].
One by one because I will forget, otherwise, Anuj, because you can ask your question later on, otherwise I will forget.
Sure, sure.
Your question is that on the capital expenditure as well as the cash generation. Last year we had generated close to INR 2,700 crore or INR 2,800 crore of the cash. Which is going to go up in FY24 and thereafter because our EBITDA is going up very rapidly because from INR 3,800 crore our EBITDA for the next year will be at least 1.7x-1.8x and that's the similar kind of a situation which is going to happen. If you are taking incremental debt on 3:1 debt equity basis, you are in a position of doing the capital expenditure between INR 12,000 crore-INR 13,000 crore per year and which will be going up as the cash flow further increases.
Therefore, we will be deploying close to INR 112,000 crore capital expenditure as against what we had indicated, a mere INR 75,000 crore. Out of INR 112,000 crore, already INR 30,000-35,000 crore is already been planned, like INR 16,600 crore on the capacity expansion of the SECI and Group Captive project, INR 2,700 crore on the Ind-Barath, INR 1,600 crore is now we are talking about for the wafer cell manufacturing facility and INR 2,200 crore for the battery storage project. In addition to that, INR 10,200 crore or INR 150 crore is for the Mytrah acquisition. All this put together is translating to around INR 30,000-31,000 crore. Balance INR 85,000 odd crore will be spent from 2024 to FY 2030. This is how it will translate.
Thanks, sir. Lastly on the green hydrogen, what capacity exactly are we looking out and, the selling arrangements, I mean, exactly to whom, this, green hydrogen will be supplied? What kind of, PSAs or selling agreement we are eyeing to? Have you already tied up with few of the customers?
Yeah, we have already tied up. This capacity is 3,800 tons. This will be sold on a take or pay contract with JSW Steel. The period is seven years. The complete plant is amortized over a period of seven years. Post seven years it will be variable cost plus ROE. It is cost plus mid-teen ROE. It will translate something like approximately between $3-$3.5 per kg kind of a number on which this will be contracted. Also the entire oxygen will also be contracted.
Thanks, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dhruv Muchhal from HDFC Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you so much. If I get it right, you mentioned the Group Captive itself can give you about 6 gigawatt. That's over and above the 1 giga that you have already, that's already in the pipeline, right, sir?
That's true.
I understand. If it's for JSW Steel, they would probably require round the clock power. Will this also be accommodated along with probably some pumped hydro which can also drive some additional investments or a battery storage, or that's just the 6 GW that we are currently thinking of?
You are absolutely right. In addition to that, there will be the storage facilities also.
It's safe to assume that large part of this will be on, I mean, what we can say, regulated ROE kind of return basis?
Absolutely.
Got it, sir. Perfect, sir. That was all from me. Thank you so much. All the best. Thanks, sir.
Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Mohit from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening, and thanks for the opportunity. The first question is on the guidance where we are talking about 3.5 times EBITDA, normalized EBITDA, normalized PAT. Can you just clarify what is normalized EBITDA and normalized PAT for FY 2023?
Yeah. I'll do that. Mohit, you know, I don't know if you joined a bit late, but I'm happy to walk you through that again. You know, it's very simple. You know, INR 3,820 crores is our own EBITDA annual rounding off, yeah, excluding Mytrah. To that you add the normalized EBITDA of Mytrah, which is INR 1,650 crores, right? That gives me INR 5,470 crores odd. That is the normalized EBITDA. Yeah.
Okay. The PAT?
PAT, you will have to derive. You know, you know on that INR 3,820 crores, you know, what is the PAT that we have done. You will be able to model that with INR 1,650 crores of EBITDA. You know there's an INR 8,600 crores of net debt. You will be able to derive, you know, Mytrah is at a roughly 25%-10% tax rate paying portfolio. You know, you'll be able to derive what will be that normalized PAT.
Got you. Second question is on the solar module and the wafer expansion plant. Have you finalized the technology, have you given the equipment order, and when do you expect this capacity to be up and running? How are you planning to source polysilicon inside India or from the outside India?
The facility will be set up in the state of Rajasthan. We have already closed the technology. It will be a TOPCon technology, and the equipment ordering is in the final stage. Polysilicon will be sourced from China because that's the only place which is manufactured at this point of time other than Europe and U.S. and small capacity in Korea. In India, nobody is producing, and we don't know when it will be available. This facility will be up and running in next to 18 months time frame.
Okay. Do you think at some point of time your ambition in solar manufacturing will expand to a larger size or to polysilicon, something?
We will take it step by step as we see. We don't see ourself into the module manufacturing and third-party business. We are concentrating only into the energy and its derivative products, which is electron to molecule business and storage products. That's where we are concentrating. Whatever we are doing a backward integration, whether in terms of PV cell manufacturing or other segments which we have talked about like in wind licensing deal and other things, is only to save our supply chain cost. We are and we want to remain as the lowest cost power producer, and we want to remain at that competitive advantage. In order to retain that advantage and to be competitive, we are working on the supply chain side.
We do not want to deploy our capital for third-party manufacturing and getting into those kind of a business because these are, we don't know how they are going to pan out in future. We want to concentrate our capital deployment only for the segments where we are efficient and we want to concentrate.
Sir, second one, again, hydrogen. I see that you have taken some approval from the Government of Karnataka about the green ammonia. Is it only going to limit our green hydrogen in the foreseeable future? Have you identified the technology which you are going to put up to produce green hydrogen? Does anything of this has to do with Fortescue?
It is nothing to do with the Fortescue. That agreement has expired, number one. Number two, we have explained in the detail about our readiness to enter into the electron to molecule business. We need to understand that at this point of time, globally, there is no ecosystem for green ammonia, green hydrogen, the long-term contracts, transportation arrangements. Everything is being worked out. In that kind of environment, everything is a plan. We are going ahead and executing a project by tying up for production of the green steel. We have all the resources in place. Our existing contract with JSW Steel for a 1 gigawatt or in Vijaynagar, from there, 25 megawatt of the round the clock power will be taken, will be used to produce green hydrogen. We have already finalized the technology.
The final equipment ordering is in a final stage. Post this approval from the board by both the companies, we will be entering into the contract with the equipment suppliers and get this up and running in next 18 months time frame. These are we will be deploying not only to the green ammonia, but also to the CO₂ capture, making the green methanol. It's sustainable aviation fuel, green chemical complex, all that we have been working. Those things are some time away as soon as the complete ecosystem is well developed. Those things are under development by various Indian policymakers as well as global policymakers and transportation and port ecosystem, railway ecosystem is getting developed, we are putting a step into the right direction and creating a first mover advantage into the green hydrogen space.
If I may ask, sir, is it alkaline or PEM technology?
Yeah. It will be alkaline technology.
Thank you, sir. Thank you. Thank you so much. Thank you. Yeah, all the best, sir. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Atul Tiwari from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Thanks a lot. Sir, just on Ind-Barath's coal supply situation. Does it already have a linkage with Coal India or the linkage is yet to be tied up? Because you mentioned INR 1.6-INR 1.4 kind of price.
No, no. I said I was trying to give you the competitive landscape. On a Coal India linkage prices, you cannot sell into the merchant market. You have to sell into the merchant market. Either you get the coal, you take into the SHAKTI B(ii) scheme , which is the quarterly auction or the spot auction. These are the two only opportunities in which you can source the coal, wherein you have to pay the premium, over and above the Coal India linkage prices. That's how I explain you the competitive landscape. Even if I am paying 100% premium, what will be the my variable cost and what will be the selling price. That's how I explain to you.
Okay. Even at the 100% premium, the fuel cost will not be more than INR 1.4. That is what you mentioned.
No, no. I said with the, with the 100% premium, the fuel price will be in the range of INR 2.25 to INR 2.30 at the. Because INR 1.30-1.40 is without the premium, the royalty as well as the Clean Energy Cess will not be changing when I am paying the premium.
Okay, sir. Okay. Thank you. Thanks a lot for the clarity.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rohit Natarajan from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Thank you for this opportunity. My first question is on the battery energy storage solutions part. The one that we have got in MoU, you say the capacity charge you get probably INR 1 million per megawatt per month, and it works for two cycles. Can you explain us the remaining 40% that is going to be sold into the open market? How will that IRR would look like? How much will be the levelized cost of storage that you have in mind?
On a, the return on the ancillary market where, which I explained into your previous question, will be close to or better than what we are having a into the SECI contract. On a overall basis, we are expecting that we will be doing better than the mid-teen equity IRR on this particular project.
Okay. Just to know the split between the battery package and the BOS charge, how does it look like? Is it like $130 per unit and what the BOS is $170 per unit? How does that, you know, split looks like at this point of time?
I will refrain to give you these kind of a numbers at this point of time. I hope you understand that these are new developing projects and developing trends. We have explained to you that our overall project cost as well as we have talked about that what kind of a equity IRR we will be developing, getting. However, in some time as the technologies are getting mature and this market deepens, we will be happy to share those kind of the numbers.
Sure. From the hydro pump storage perspective, what is the constructive commissioning timeline that one should realistically look at for all the projects that you have in pipeline?
All the projects it takes once you get the PPA signed up and all the statutory approvals are in place, it typically takes between 36 to 48 months kind of a timeframe. These are very simple projects because here there are no tunneling. There are only upper barrage, lower barrage and you have to make one powerhouse and a steel penstock. These are the very simple projects. Government is also facilitating very express approvals in these kind of projects. Post statutory approvals and PPA, 36 to 48 months is a safe time to consume.
Is there a taking tariff number that you have in mind when these PPAs are signed?
These are the different construct than the peak in tariff and other things. These are basically lease kind of a contract which are being done. I'm not concerned that you are using for one cycle, two cycles, three cycles, depending upon the requirement or multiple cycles which the grid or the utility who's taking it on a lease can utilize based on their particular requirement. We are not concerned on that. It's a build, own, and operate and lease back. My responsibility is to build a project, guarantee a particular efficiency, and maintain a particular availability. After that, what price, what time cycle the power is coming and what time, what is the cost at which the utility is using is depending upon them.
Some may be using the absolute free power, some may be using some, purchase power. It depends on the utility to utility, grid to grid. This is how, the business is going to be in over a period of time.
Thank you. That's it from my side.
Thank you.
Can we take the last question, please?
Yes. The last question will be from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity again. Pritesh, one question for you. What is the weighted average cost of debt that we should use, for, like 2024? What is your strategy going forward in terms of the incremental debt that you take? Is there, is it all going to be local borrowings, or do you have a mix of local and foreign borrowings?
Sumit, very interesting question, you know. It's easier to talk about the weighted average interest rate, you know, where we are already there. You know, it's already there in the presentation. If you see, you know, we were at 8.36% at the end of March. You know, to look at the weighted average portfolio, post-implementation of the debt sizing and the full drawdown of the refinancing at Mytrah, that should be closer to a print of between 8.5%-8.6%. Overall, you're looking at closer to 8.45% on a weighted average portfolio basis, on a run rate point of view, right?
Now, you know, if I were to hazard a guess, for the next year, you know, now the underlying assumptions are we at the peak of the repo rate cycle? Do you think the bank MCLR catch-up to the repo rate increase is done or how much more legs are left to that? Giving, you know, some kind of, you know, thought to that kind of a thing. From a being conservative, from a worst case point of view, I would expect possibly another, you know, max, 15 basis points, you know, increase from there, you know, probably on that.
So, so eight fifty-five, eight sixty.
That's right. Maybe 8.6% is where we should kind of, you know, land up. This is, you know, with these kind of underlying assumptions behind, and if any of these assumptions change, that will change.
Incremental debt.
That is one. The second part of your question is, so far if you look at our financing philosophy, as far as the growth projects, the organic growth projects are concerned, in our entire portfolio, we have gone for a 100%, you know, long-term project financing, you know, depending on the nature of the project, et cetera, with a, you know, door-to-door tenor of, say, 20 years, you know, average life of between 16-17 years. They have been done at very, very fine and tightened, you know, interest rates given the years of this credit standing in the bank loan market. Therefore, by an extension of that, given the favorable INR liquidity and rates environment vis-a-vis the FX markets, we have been 100% dependent on INR markets.
Incidentally, if you recall, two years ago, we had done our maiden green dollar bond offering, and that was precisely with this view to lock in, you know, low levels of rates on a hedge to basis for the next 10 years because one was anticipating a tightening of the rates market. Going forward, if you're asking about what is the mix going to be likely be, the way it appears, at least in the near to medium term, it appears that the INR market is still likely to be much more favorable from rates, from credit spreads point of view. You know, vis-a-vis whatever limited visibility we have from a FX denominated market.
I would again hazard a guess that, you know, INR liquidity is going to be the way forward at least, you know, for the next 12 months or so . Whatever feelers we have, you know, as we bag more bids, we are actually inundated with, you know, more number of banks wanting to come and have an exposure to our growth project than we are able to accommodate. So that's where we are right now.
Okay. Okay. My next question is, you know, so more from your Ind-Barath project, would you also bring the output electricity to the electricity exchanges, or would it be more of bilateral contracts? Similarly, in pump storage hydro, does the strategy, you know, also entail meeting the, you know, managing the peak demand requirement and the higher prices? Would you bring power on the electricity exchanges, in both these projects, the merchant thermal project which is being set up today or being, you know, commissioned after the being shut down and pump storage hydro?
Look, we do not anticipate that we will be setting up any merchant capacity or any merchant pump hydro capacity. Ind-Barath is an incidental opportunity for us, where there was a PPA which at the time of our making the bid, but we could not revise that particular PPA and the macro situation is transforming. That's why we are trying to take the advantage being a agile company in terms of the business environment and to create the shareholder value. I want to make it very clear that all the projects going forward or whatever investment will be a long-term tied-up business, and this is how we want to play. There are certain things which happen in certain constructs where we see a huge economical value.
Part of the capacity could happen, like for example, if we are building like we are having a project of 1,500 megawatts in Maharashtra, two projects and one project of similar kind of a capacity are in the southern state. That will be giving us close to 12 gigawatt-hour of the storage capacity on a 8-hour storage. If I'm getting a bid which is for 6 gigawatt or 7 gigawatt and I tied up and then another bid of 3 gigawatt and then my 3 gigawatt capacity is open while I am constructing the project and I have commissioned the project, I can play into the peaking market. As soon as I am able to tie that up, I would like to tie it up.
However, we will not be building any capacity which is purely based on the merchant. It could be some incidental which where we can play certain capacity on a strategic basis for some period, but we would like to tie up as much as 100%.
Sure. My last question is, the 72 gigawatt hour that you have tied up in pump storage hydro, you know, in maybe in 3 to 4 years, how much approval on a environmental and other approvals, pre-project approvals do you expect to complete in the next one year, two years, three years? If you could give some sort of a understanding.
Approval basis, we can reasonably assume that in next 18 months timeframe, we will have all approvals for us on all the projects. However, in terms of the execution and capital deployment side, we are only talking 50% of that by FY 2030, because we need to really see how much bids come, whether they will be on a competitive landscape, plus the capital requirement, plus execution, issues. That's how we can see.
Thank you. Those are my questions.
Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Rohit Natarajan for the closing comments. Over to you, sir.
We thank the management for giving us this opportunity. Before we close the call, I would like to ask the management if they would wish to make any closing remarks.
No, I think that's all. In case you have any questions, please feel free to contact our investor relations department at any point of time. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Antique Stock Broking, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line.