Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Star Cement Limited Q1 FY 2026 Earnings Conference Call hosted by Emkay Global. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Harsh Mittal from Emkay Global. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Hi. Thank you, Shubham. Good afternoon, good evening, everyone, for participating in this call. On behalf of Emkay Global, I welcome you to the Q1 FY 2026 results conference call of Star Cement. From the management, we have with us Tushar Bhajanka Ji, who is the Deputy Managing Director, and joined by Mr. Manoj Agarwal, who is the company CFO. So, without any further ado, I hand over the call to the management for their opening comments. Over to you, sir.
Yes. Hi. Good afternoon, all. My name is Tushar Bhajanka, and I'm the Deputy MD of Star Cement. I welcome you all to the conference call of Q1 FY 2026. I'll hand over to our CFO, Mr. Manoj Agarwal, who will go through the numbers, and then we can start the Q&A. Thank you.
Yes. Thank you. Hi, friends. Very good afternoon. I, on behalf of Star Cement Limited, welcome you to our conference call for discussing our number of Q1 FY 2026. I would like to clarify that we are discussing on the historical numbers, and there is no invitation to invest. Having said that, now, I will just take you through the Q1 number. Starting from clinker production during the quarter-ended June 25, we have produced 8.90 lakh ton of clinker as against 6.86 lakh ton same quarter last year. So far, as cement production is concerned, we have produced 12.31 lakh ton this quarter as against 11.80 lakh ton same quarter last year. Now, I will take you through the sales volume.
During the quarter, we have sold 12.22 lakh ton of cement and 0.74 lakh ton of clinker as against 11.54 lakh ton of cement, a negligible quantity of clinker same quarter last year. This is as far as cement and clinker sale is concerned. As far as geographical distribution of cement is concerned, in Northeast, we have sold around 8.97 lakh ton as against 8.50 lakh ton during the same quarter last year. And as far as outside Northeast is concerned, we have sold 3.25 lakh ton of cement this quarter as against 3.04 lakh ton same quarter last year. In terms of blend mix, it is almost 15% of OPC, and rest is PPC.
These are the quantitative numbers of the quarter. Now, I will take you through to the financials. The total revenue figure this quarter is around INR 847 crore as against INR 736 crore same period last year.
As far as EBITDA figure is concerned, this quarter, we have done an EBITDA of around INR 230 crore as against INR 118 crore last year. Profit after tax is INR 98 crore in this quarter as against INR 31 crore last year. On firsthand EBITDA, front, it is INR 1,774 during this quarter as against INR 1,018 same quarter last year. This is what our quarterly numbers are. Now, I request all of you that if you have any query, you can ask the same, and I will request Harsh to moderate the query wherever it requires. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on your touch-tone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question comes from the line of Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yes.
Yes, sir. So congratulations, first of all, on the very good set of numbers. In fact, sequential increase in EBITDA per ton. So I just wanted to understand how much has the incentive we have booked in this quarter and how much we have received?
Yeah. It is around INR 62 crore we have booked this quarter, and this is because we have already filed a claim, and that has already been filed. It is in the final stage of receipt of the subsidy.
So I believe then cumulative, what is the outstanding incentives which are yet to be received while we have already booked?
It is almost around INR 150 crore.
Understood. Understood, sir. I said my second question was that while we have done fairly good on the revenue front, ramp-up of volumes and also the realization has sequentially, even excluding incentives, has gone up by almost 3% QoQ. But I was seeing your variable cost has also increased. So I'm talking more about power and fuel and raw material combined. That cost seems to have gone up. So I was under the impression, or in general, we were given the impression that Q4 onwards, because the kiln has ramped up to its full potential, the cost will rationalize and come down. So if you could just explain why sequentially there is a further increase in the fuel cost.
No. I mean, maybe just a yeah. Yeah. Start with you, yeah.
Yeah. So I think the only major reason, I think, in the variable cost is the fact that in Q1, depending on the demand, we had to keep operating and shutting the kiln, right, which of course has its own cost because of the demand, right, because the demand was not as much as it was in Q4. And then there was also a good stock of clinkers. So I think because we were operating at lower capacities in Q1 compared to Q4, that is why I think the fuel cost and all, of course, shot a bit. And that is something that we will, of course, work on and reduce in the future.
Helpful. I'll come back and use for the question. Thank you.
One thing I'd like to add because you are considering also the movement of stock because as far as raw material cost and power and fuel, both costs have come down as compared to the last time because the volume was lower, so it has come down. Then we are still saving in the power and fuel cost. Mainly, the increase decrease in stock because the overhead absorption was lower due to we are not running all the kiln as per the demand. So that is why increase decrease in stock impact is there. Otherwise, the production cost is more or less same as that of last time.
Understood, sir. Thank you so much. I'll come back and queue.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Shravan S from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you and congratulations on good set of numbers. A couple of questions. So first on the volume front, so last time we said that for this year FY 2026, we are looking at 5.4 million-5.5 million ton. So obviously, the first quarter was good. But if we want to achieve this, then in the balance three quarters, we need to do a 17%-20% kind of a growth. So just wanted to know whether are we sticking to our volume guidance.
The quarter one, because of the early monsoon, the volume has taken a bit of a hit. I think in quarter two, because now we don't have as much monsoon in Northeast, I think the subsequent months are picking up well, so I think it'll take another quarter, full quarter to actually see whether volumes will end up, but I do think that it may be realistic to get that kind of a growth.
Second, on the one hand, in terms of the timeline of the ongoing expansion, so 2 million ton in Silchar by this March and 2 million ton in Jorhat, Assam by Q3 FY 2027.
Yeah. So I think.
So yeah.
I think the timeline is probably the same. We'll probably commission Silchar in January or February of this financial year. We will be commissioning Jorhat around January February of next financial year.
Okay. Got it. And till now in Q1, how much CapEx we have done? And for full year, last time we said close to INR 820 crore and INR 600 crore for FY 2027. So that number remains intact?
Yes. I think it broadly remains intact. I don't think there's anything changing in there.
In Q1, how much CapEx we have done?
It is around INR 62 crore we have done.
Okay. Okay. Got it. Got it. And the net debt is how much as on March? As on June, sorry.
Yes. 1.9 only. 1.9.
Should not get you what you want to know?
Net debt as on June is how much, sir?
Net debt is INR 320 crore.
INR 320 crore. Okay. Okay. Got it. Couple of data points, if you can share, sir. So first is trade, non-trade share, premium share, then lead distance, and Kcal cost for this quarter.
Yes. Trade sale this quarter is 81%.
Okay.
Okay. And lead distance is 220 km.
Okay.
Premium cost is 1.35.
1.35. Okay. So it has come down drastically from 1.54 last quarter. It is 1.35. So is it likely to remain at this level, fuel cost?
More or less, we are hoping that it will continue like that in this financial year.
Okay. Okay. And the premium share for this quarter was how much?
Premium sale was 12%. It is 12.2%, 12%.
Okay. 12.2%. And the incentive for full year would be the same last time what we said, INR 220 crore-INR 250 crore for FY 2026?
Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.
Okay. And AAC Block, how much revenue and EBITDA now, because it has started, how much we can see? So AAC and construction chemical both put together?
So right now, at this time, the AAC block plant that we set up was of about 20,000 CBM a month. We have always started operating the plant at about 40% capacity. Commissioning is just one and a half months back. So I think for the first year, I don't see a very significant EBITDA coming from there. But I think we'll be able to ramp it up in a year's time for us to start getting EBITDA from it.
But at revenue level, how one can look at for this year and next year if we ramp up next year?
I think about this year, we should not expect more than INR 70 crore-INR 80 crore of revenue coming from there.
Next year, it will ramp up to?
Next year, it may ramp up to 20%-30% higher.
Okay. Okay. Great. Thank you and all the best, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, we would like to remind participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question comes from the line of Vishal Dudhwala from Trinetra Asset Managers. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. I have a couple of questions. First question, what was the clinker-to-cement ratio in Q1? And what percentage of your thermal energy in Q1 came from alternative fuel?
You want to intercept there?
Hello? Yeah. Can you please repeat your question?
Okay. Let me repeat. What was the clinker-to-cement ratio in Q1 and percentage of captive clinker? And what percentage of your thermal energy in Q1 came from alternative fuels versus coal?
Yes. It is 1.44. The clinker-to-cement is 1.44.
Your percentage of?
Also the clinker factor was 1.44. It's 1.44 clear because there's also another way of measuring or suggesting clinker factor. It's 1.44. Besides that, the fuel cost, in the overall fuel mix, 18% was substituted to non-conventional sources of fuel.
Okay. And the second one is, can you give your consolidated trade receivable days and inventory days as of 30 June 2025?
But here, just speak loudly what you have asked for.
Should I repeat the question?
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. So can you give your consolidated trade receivable days and inventory days as of 30 June 2025?
Trade receivables is around INR 193 Cr. INR 183 Cr. Hello?
Yeah. Yeah.
Hello. Vishal sir, yes.
Yeah. What's your number, sir?
Yeah. So I think let's do one thing. On this question, we'll get back to you. Because we don't have it in days, we have it in Cr. I think we'll have to divide it by the revenue.
Okay. Just give me the CR number of trade receivable and inventory?
Trade receivable is INR 183 crore and inventory is INR 492 crore.
Just a follow-up question. Are you seeing any cost pressure during the year or any working capital?
No. We are not.
Okay. Got your point. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Milind Raginwar from BOB Capital Markets Limited. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for this opportunity. Sir, just a confirmation, the net debt number is INR 3.2 billion?
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Was it INR 2.3 billion in the fourth quarter?
No. No. It was so in the March quarter also. It was there around INR 300.
Okay, and sir, can you just please share the number for the fuel breakup, that is, the fuel that comes from FSA from spot and alternative fuel?
It is FSA is around 79% from FSA.
79%?
18% across from AFR. 3% is almost all of the coal, that local coal.
Okay. And sir, regarding our grinding units, in terms of clearances, where should we be?
For Silchar, we have already started the construction. We've got all the permissions. For Jorhat grinding unit, we have selected land. We bought the land. We will then apply for EC in a month's time. We should be through the EC in 3 months-4 months.
Okay. Okay. So I think that fourth quarter FY 2027 is still gettable, right?
Yeah. I think for Jorhat, it is still achievable, and fourth quarter for Silchar is definitely happening.
Understood. Right.
Fourth quarter of 2026, it will be definitely happening for Silchar.
Right. And Manoj sir, can you please? I just missed that number of Northeast and East breakup. Can you please share that again?
Yes. Just a moment. Yes. I think is 73% and 27% outside India.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you, sir. That is it from my side.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Uttam Kumar Srimal from Axis Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir. Congratulations on the very good set of numbers. My question pertains to Rajasthan expansion, sir. Last time, you spoke about expanding in Rajasthan. So any update on the same?
Yeah. So I think we have bought some mines in Nimbol, and we're also participating in auction in Jaisalmer, right? So I think we should have some news in a week's time regarding how it went, and we'll also make it public. So I think we are definitely looking at Rajasthan as a potential market to expand. Yes.
And sir, how much CapEX we will do for this for 3 million? I think it is.
Right now, we're trying to just secure a mine, but if we are able to secure a mine, then we plan to do a CapEx. We plan to put up about three million tonne clinker plant along with four million tonne grinding in Rajasthan, which would basically be about INR 2,400 crore- INR2,500 crore CapEx overall.
Okay. And sir, how is the pricing right now compared to quarter one, FY 2026, exit prices in both Northeast and East region?
So compared to quarter one, I think the prices right now are still maintaining. They've not fallen by as much or anything. So I think we should not see a very big dip in the price due to off-season.
Okay. And, sir, since prices have improved, the Silchar unit might also be producing more cement compared to what it was doing earlier. So how do you see the Silchar unit's capacity utilization this year? Because since prices have improved compared to last year.
Sir, definitely, we are pushing more outside Northeast to West Bengal and Bihar market because the prices have improved. So I think we'll see in the quarter two results that I think that has really helped us in achieving higher volume.
Okay, and now coming to, sir, this premium cement sale, this is around 12%, and last quarter also, it was around 12%. So it has remained on the same level. So what we are doing to increase the sale of premium cement?
So I mean, if you compare it to a year back, we have definitely improved it from 6%-7% to 12%. And I think we had taken a target to be more aggressive, to be pushing our premium sales more. We've taken a target to make it reach about 18% by end of the year.
Okay. Okay, sir. That's all from my side. I wish you all the best.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jayesh Shah from Ohm Portfolio Equi Research. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. I just had one question on these incentives and subsidies. There are some media reports of certain state government, including West Bengal, looking to withdraw these incentives and subsidies. So where are we on this? And how long does it take to collect the subsidy amount once you are eligible?
So good question. So we, unlike other states that you mentioned, right, I don't think Assam has a history of taking away the subsidies, right? Because we have completed all our documentation. We have gotten an eligibility certificate from the government of Assam, which is also approved by the GST department, the finance department of the state. So it's more of a binding agreement that one has with the state, right? And then we've already filed for getting the subsidy for the last year that we had booked, about INR 150 crore. And I think that should be with us before the quarter two ends. So we'll see that whatever we are booking in terms of subsidy in our books is also received in our cash flows every quarter from now on.
Okay, so are there really anything in the timetable of disbursement as per whatever that has been promised to you?
Yeah. So basically, there's no timetable as such. But what normally happens is that right now, there's a backlog, right? Because we were filing all our documents and all. So there's a backlog of last year as well, which we're supposed to get, which I think we'll get the entire INR 150 crore or major part of the INR 150 crore in quarter two end, by quarter two end. So that will finish the backlog till quarter one, right? And then we will, for each subsequent quarter that passes, we should be able to get the subsidy amount by end of the next quarter. So suppose the subsidy amount for quarter two will be accrued to us and received by us by end of quarter three. That is how normally it should follow. And this is how we've seen in the past also that it has followed.
So the subsidy does not remain an amount which is just showing in the books and never received by the company. In our case, it's never happened like that. And we hope to maintain this, right?
Okay. That's very comforting. Thank you. And my second question is, given the stake that UltraTech has in your company, which they say is financial investment, is there any business relationship, trade arrangements, or do you benefit due to UltraTech taking stake in your company in terms of dealer distribution, logistics, or cost?
Not really. UltraTech definitely bought a stake in the company. I don't think it was just an investment that they made from a long-term perspective, I guess. I don't think that affects our business negatively or positively either way, right? Both the companies are operating at an arm's length. There's no synergy that we are benefiting from right now.
Okay. Thank you. And lastly, in terms of demand outlook for Assam, given all these political uncertainties and media articles that we keep hearing, what is your outlook on overall demand scenario in Assam? And how much you sell exactly in Assam?
So approximately about, sorry?
Yeah. Assam and Bengal, I thought.
Yeah. So if I talk about Northeast overall, then I think just a second. In Northeast overall, we sell almost about 75% of our sales is happening in Northeast right now, right? And I think the market growth in Assam and other states in Northeast are going to be good only because there's just so much more scope to grow, right? You can also see in the sales numbers that we normally go past, right? I mean, the way our customers' turnover has grown in the last four, five years, I don't think that kind of growth has been seen in outside Northeast, right? So definitely, there's more potential to grow. And there are also a lot of hydro projects which are coming up. There's also a lot of infrastructure projects which are coming up. And I think the demand will be basically led by that.
All right. Thank you very much, sir, sir.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Harsh Mittal. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you, Shubham. So I have two questions. So as per media articles, there has been trial runs conducted for the first freight train to Nagaland and Tripura a quarter ago, roughly a quarter ago. So how do you see this as a benefit to Star Cement in terms of capturing higher market share in these states or reduce freight cost? So that would be my first question, sir.
Sorry. Could you please repeat the question?
My question being that Northeast Frontier Railway, they have started trial runs for their first freight train, cement cargo freight trains, to be transported to the states of Nagaland and Tripura roughly a quarter ago kind of. How do you see this as a benefit to Star Cement in terms of higher market share or reduce freight cost?
So I think it can give an advantage in terms of serviceability, right?, in terms of the freight. It also poses a risk because now cement players from outside can also send the cement to Nagaland directly, right?, through the rail. So it has both elements of benefit and disadvantage. But definitely, I have not worked out the math of how cheaper it would make it if we send it through rail now. But we'll definitely do that working. I think in busy season, it will help us service better these matters, right?
Sure, sir. And the second question being, as per your market intelligence, besides Star Cement and Dalmia Bharat, what is the tentative expected supply which we are going to see in the next four, five years in Northeast?
So I think in the next three, four years, I do not expect any other plant to come. Though, of course, major cement companies in India are definitely looking at this market now, right? They may be also talking in their own investor calls. But I think for four years, I do not see any of the capacity really coming in. So for four years, I do think that this market would broadly be dominated by two players. And probably, there is a chance that a third one probably comes in three, four years. And then it's very hard to predict. But of course, then we'll see how the scenario changes. But I think the market will become big enough for the market to even absorb a third player in like four, five years' time. I don't think that should be a challenge, right?
Because the market is also growing, right?
So what is the current market size for Northeast cement market?
About 14 million would be the current market size.
And the expected growth rate you expect for the next three, four years, CAGR? Any guidance on that market growth?
It's anyone's guess. But I think it should be about 10% at least.
Sure, sir. Sure. Okay, Shubham, you can take the next question.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Hello. Am I audible? Hello?
Yes, yes.
Right. Thank you for the repeat opportunity. So two follow-up questions. If you could please talk about the efficiency because green power share, I think in the previous quarter was around 20%, but the target is to take it to almost 55% by 26th itself. So where are we in terms of green power efficiency or other initiatives as well, be it the FSA call or any other thing that can help us reduce cost in the coming quarters?
Yeah. So no, thank you so much. And the FSA cost, of course, the FSAs, we have tied up for the long run. If you see that 78% of our requirement of fuel was met through FSA. So definitely, we're doing a decent job at managing our cost of fuel, right? And I do think that quarter one was slightly better in terms of fuel cost, Kcal, rupees per Kcal, than quarter four. And it was also better than last year, same quarter. So we've definitely pulled up our socks on the fuel cost and distribution. On the green energy, we have currently hired EY to make an entire plan of how we can substitute more of a power requirement to green energy. So on that plan, we are putting up about 40 MW of solar in Assam itself. That will help us serve the Guwahati units.
We are also probably going to draw some power to Meghalaya from that solar farm. Then we're also looking at wind options, not in Assam, of course, but in other states, that we can kind of get a captive wind farm that we can probably use to provide power to us. I think in a month's time, we'll have a clear roadmap. Of course, some of the roadmap, we've already started implementing with regards to solar. Then the wind and other sources of renewable energy we are tapping will only be clear after the entire EY project is done. I think by next investor call, we will have a clear roadmap of how we reach 55%-60%.
And the PPA we had signed last year with JSW Green Energy state , right? That starts contributing by end of this fiscal. Is that correct?
Yeah. That should start contributing by end of fiscal year. Though there was some delay of three, four months in that. But we are just talking to them as well as to how we can bind them to kind of give us as soon as possible. We're also evaluating other options to that agreement in case we want to have our own captive generation because that in the long run reduces your fixed cost. Because when you tie up with JSW or any other developer like that, you're buying power at a fixed cost, which may be 3.5 or 3.6, whatever the rate you may decide, right? But that 3.5, 3.6 becomes your base cost, right? Whereas if you put up your own plants, then your base cost is only the cost of the O&M of the plant, of solar or wind. So your variable cost falls to 0.6, 0.7.
So I think in the long run, it makes much more sense for cement companies if they want to be competitive to kind of put up their own plants because they effectively reduce the variable cost by INR 3 or more rupees, right?
Yeah. Yeah. That's very helpful. And so my last question was on our preparedness for foraying into Rajasthan. You said that, of course, we have participated in some auctions. And maybe in a couple of weeks, there will be a formal update on the outcome of the same. But what I wanted to broadly understand is, typically, how far are we in terms of actually having a plant in place? Will it be? Will you say it is three years away? Will you say it is four years away? How should one look at foraying to?
I think it's about three and a half years away. I think that is the timeline because for us to acquire mining and land and then put up a plant, it will take us three years, right? So in three years' time, unless we go for an acquisition, right, which I don't think is really available in Rajasthan, but probably in areas of south, I don't think there's any other way but to spend three years and put up a plant there.
Correct. That's very clear and helpful. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Shravan S from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Hi, sir. So just continuing this part, so currently, the 4 million ton that we will be adding ongoing expansion. So we will be reaching close to 11.7-odd million tons. And this Rajasthan would be maybe a 4-4.5 million tons in terms of cement level. So around 16-odd million tons. But we target to reach a 20 million tons by FY 2030. So where else will we be? Will it be in the Northeast? Maybe two, three years down the line, we can add because we already got more mines there.
We're honestly evaluating because I think that was just the 20 million was just an aspirational target of where we think our long-term vision should align. But in the short run, we'll, of course, have to find opportunities, right? I don't think I have a clear answer. We are evaluating to put up a plant of 2 million tons in Bihar, for example, right? Because our Siliguri plant, I expect in the next few years, we'll reach full utilization of the plant. We will have to put another grinding unit for us to grow outside Northeast, right? We may put up a plant in Bihar. It looks like a favorable place with good thermal plants around it, with the market which is growing, of course, competitive, but growing.
We do think that 3-4 million extra capacity that we want to build up. We're evaluating it, which area it should be. I think we'll have an answer in a quarter or two because I don't think it's very easy for us to forecast the entire five years from now. I think definitely, we are working on two or three more opportunities so that we can probably ramp up to the 20 million capacity as soon as possible.
Okay. Got it. But in whatever way, whether we'll reach to 18 million ton or a 20 million ton, but in terms of the net debt level, what's in our mind that we will not obviously, right now, we are at much, much comfortable level, only 300 around kind of a net debt. So until what level are we comfortable to keep on increasing net debt?
That honestly depends on the EBITDA that we achieve, right, and the cash flow that we get. So I do assume that we should be able to start touching levels of INR 850 crore-INR 900 crore of EBITDA from this year onwards, right, and probably do better next year. So if that is the case, then I do think that we should be comfortable with about INR 1,500 crore of debt in the worst-case situation, worst-case scenario, right? So I think that is something that, depending on how our cash flows are seeming in the year and this year and next year, we should be able to ramp up our comfort of taking debt to about INR 1,500 crore at max, right? Which I think is in line with other companies, right? It's almost 1.5x the debt-to-EBITDA ratio is 1.5x , which is fine, I guess.
True. True, true, true. No, no, that is fine. But because currently, obviously, we are having INR 1,700 plus EBITDA per ton. And hopefully, if you can help us, given as you are mentioning, the prices are stable, and maybe we can start seeing some cost-benefit also. So this kind of a run rate likely to be maintained. That is the first part. And second is, once we have Rajasthan, obviously, there we will not be having maybe half of the profitability what right now we are enjoying. So that also, we are watchful despite that fact of which should not be kind of a worst-case. INR 1,500 crore kind of a debt is manageable.
Yeah. No, that's what we always thought that if the cash flow in the next three, four years in the Northeast is stable, and even if you have a INR 1,500 crore debt, which you, of course, will start reducing as soon as your plants commission, then I don't think it's bad. And also, the company will, of course, think of doing a QIP as well, right, if we do go in Rajasthan and do all those things. So I think from that perspective, also, we'll definitely maintain our debt levels in control because as a company, we don't like to pay too much for debt as it's clear with our history, right?
Got it. Got it. Understood. And then now onwards from Q2, the current OpEx per ton, so that's the way what we calculate in terms of revenue minus EBITDA, whatever the cost divided by volume. So that number should not be rising. Rather, it should be seeing one should start seeing given the volume uptick will be there. So we should start seeing a declining trend there. And if the prices remain stable, then this kind of EBITDA per ton, INR 1,700 is manageable at least for next couple of quarters.
Yeah. No, so I do think, yeah, I think that's true. But it also happens that every quarter is a bit different in terms of volume, right? So if I compare my OpEx cost compared to last year, same quarter, Q2, then it will definitely be lower. If I compare it to Q4, where the volumes were very high, then my fixed costs are divided by a higher volume, right? So I think then it's very hard to beat Q4 because the volumes were higher. So I think it should be fair for variable cost to pass that statement, but not overall cost.
Okay. Got it. And if you can help us, currently, trade non-trade price gap in Northeast and East would be how much?
Trade non-trade, I think it's about INR 60-INR 70.
In northeast?
Yes, and in East? East, we actually don't sell that much of non-trade. So, I don't think we'll be able to give a good benchmark.
Okay. Okay. Okay. Got it. Got it. Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
Sir, yeah, sir, lastly, this Silchar, how much already we have done the CapEx and what is balance for Silchar because that is going to start by this January, February?
So in Silchar, around one.
Silchar?
In Silchar till date, we have done only about INR 105 crores, right? Because a lot of payments will now start going in quarter two and quarter three, right? But our timeline is quite certain that by quarter four, we should be able to commission, and there will be some aspects of the plant which may be getting commissioned after quarter four, but so we may see that even after commissioning the plant, there are some CapEx which are ongoing. Yeah. Does that answer the question?
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Good afternoon. Just on the northeastern market, we have been hearing about other companies also wanting to set up capacity, latest being JK Lakshmi, having won some limestone leases over there. And they're talking about starting a plant in roughly two years' time. So do you see the competitive intensity going up over the next two to three years as these new players enter the market? It's usually been seen as a duopoly market, but UltraTech wants to get into the market, and now even JK Lakshmi wants to get into the market. So what's your thought or view on that?
I think for anyone who's coming fresh to Northeast, it will take at least three, four years to put up a plant. And I do think that, of course, as the market becomes bigger, people will come in, and they will like to get a share of the market. So it's quite natural. But I do not think that Northeast has that kind of space where you can accommodate a lot of people. So people, when they're doing their working, after, suppose, a competitor comes in, they'll have to really question that for the fourth one or the fifth one, is the market big enough to absorb the capacity, right? So I do think that in four years, probably the competitive landscape will be more aggressive, right? But then I do think it will settle down, right?
Because I don't think people are going to just keep on entering Northeast, right? There's a limit to it because there's only a very small market that they can address.
Yeah, but as people enter, won't it spoil, let's say, the pricing because Northeast has been having really strong and consistently good pricing and margin?
Yeah. I think it may spoil it for a year. It may spoil it for two. But I think eventually, everything settles down, I guess, in some ways.
Sure. Sure. Got it. And generally, is my understanding right that the market is operating at 65%-70% capacity utilization right now after you expanded, and then even Dalmia is going to kind of get their clinker commissioned soon enough?
Yeah. I think it is operating at about, yeah, 70%, 65%-70% utilization.
What will be the size of the market? If you can just let us know in terms of.
It's about 14 million tons.
14 million. Got it. And.
1/4, yeah.
Sure. And you would be having about 25% market share, more or less?
Yeah, so we have about 27%-28% market share.
Dalmia would be having a similar number?
Yeah. Something a little bit lesser than us.
Got it. Got it. Sure. Sure. Thank you so much. Yeah. That's all from my side.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the repeat opportunity. I just had one follow-up. The incentive we booked in Q1 was INR 62 crores, and it was almost INR 75 crore-INR 76 crore in Q4. So just wanted to know, is it fair to assume that this year, as a whole, we will receive in upwards of, let's say, INR 250 crores? Of course, assuming volume momentum stays intact. But I believe with your ample portfolio and overall, it should. So is it fair to assume that incentives can continue at this run rate of INR 475 rupees per ton or INR 500 rupees per ton for the full year, or that could be a little stretched?
Yeah. I think it's fair to assume that we probably should be able to get incentives about INR 230 crore-INR 250 crores.
Very helpful. Very clear. Very helpful. Thank you. Thank you so much. Thank you so much. Thank you.
Thank you. The last question for the day comes from the line of Harsh Mittal. Please go ahead.
Thank you. So my question is, what would be the tentative capacity for the Rajasthan on the drawing board, if any?
Tentative capacity?
What have you planned, the expansion size, capacity size?
So I think it will be wherever we put up a plan, it will be about 3 million tons of clinker and about 4 million tons of granular.
Right. And the tentative budget for the same?
So the budget will be about INR 2,400 crores. Yeah. I think we've already answered this question. Just telling you. Yeah.
Right. Right. Sure. Thank you. Thank you, sir.
Thank you, and there are no further questions from the participants. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Tushar Bhajanka for closing comments. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you so much, everyone, for your questions. And if anyone has any remaining questions, they can always email us, and we're happy to answer those questions. And yeah. And if there's any further interest, you can get in touch with the CFO. And if you want to visit the plant, we're happy to organize something. So thank you so much.
Thank you. On behalf of Emkay Global, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you.