Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the earnings conference call for quarter and year-ended 2024 of Star Cement Limited, hosted by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal from PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Thank you, and over to you.
Yeah, thank you, Yashashri. Good evening, everyone. On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd., we welcome you to the earnings call for the quarter and year-ended 31st March 2024 for Star Cement Limited. On the call, we have with us Mr. Tushar Bhajanka, Deputy Managing Director, Mr. Vineet Kumar Tiwari, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Manoj Agarwal, Chief Financial Officer of the company. At this point of time, I'll hand over the floor to Mr. Manoj Agarwal for his opening remarks, which will follow by a direct Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, Manoj, sir.
Yep, Mr. Tushar Bhajanka will give the opening remarks, then I will give you the providing details of numbers, okay? Yeah.
Good evening, all. My name is Tushar Bhajanka, and I'm the Deputy MD of Star Cement. I would like to welcome you all to the earnings call of quarter four. I have the CEO and CFO of the company with me. The CFO will give out the numbers of quarter four, and then we can have a Q&A session.
Okay, fine. Very fine.
Thank you.
Thank you. Hi, friend. Very good evening. I, on behalf of Star Cement Limited, welcome you to all our phone calls for discussing our numbers for Q4 FY 2024 and full year FY 2023-FY 2024. I would like to clarify that we are discussing the historical numbers, and there is no invitation to invest. Having said that now, I will just take you through the Q4 numbers followed by the full year numbers. Starting from clinker production, during the quarter ended March 2024, we have produced 693,000 tons of clinker as against 778,000 tons same quarter last year. So far as cement production is concerned, we have produced 1,388,000 tons this quarter as against 1,251,000 tons same quarter last year. As you are aware that we have successfully started commercial production from our newly commissioned cement grinding unit of 2 million tons per annum capacity in March 2024.
Now, I will take you through sales volume. During the quarter, we have sold 13.87 lakh tons of cement as against 12.35 lakh tons of cement, and 0.24 lakh tons of clinker. There was no clinker sale.
Sir, we are unable to hear you clearly.
Yeah. Yeah, there were no. Can we? Am I audible?
Yes, please go ahead.
Yeah. There is a growth of funds concerning cement sales. This is as far as cement and clinker sales concerned. As far as geographical distribution of cement is concerned, we in Northeast, we have sold around 1,040,000 tons as against 912,000 tons during same quarter last year. And as far as outside Northeast is concerned, we have sold 348,000 tons of cement this quarter as against 323,000 tons same quarter last year. In terms of blend mix, it is almost same, 10% of OPC, and the rest is PPC. These are the quantitative numbers of the quarter. Now, I will take you through the financial. The total revenue figure this quarter is around INR 914 crore as against INR 829 crore same period last year. As far as EBITDA figure is concerned, the quarter we have done an EBITDA of around INR 188 crore as against Rs.
179 crore last year. Profit after tax is INR 88 crore as against INR 96 crore in same period last year. On per-ton EBITDA front, it is 1,329 during this quarter as against 1,448 per-ton same quarter last year. This is what our quarterly numbers of four quarters. Now, the total revenue figure for FY 2024 is around INR 2,911 crore as against INR 2,705 crore last year. As far as EBITDA figure is concerned, in FY 2024, we have done an EBITDA of around INR 583 crore as against INR 520 crore last year. Profit after tax is INR 295 crore as against INR 248 crore last year. On per-ton EBITDA front, it is 1,312 during FY 2024 as against 1,297 per-ton last year. These are the quarterly and yearly numbers.
Now, I request all of you that if you have any query, you can ask the same, and I will request everyone to moderate the query wherever it requires. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their phone now. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to only use handsets while asking a question. We'll take our first question from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, and congrats on starting for clinker and the grinding unit. Sir, just a couple of data points first and then the question. Trade mix, lead distance for this quarter, and the fuel mix.
On trade mix, in quarter four, we were around 84.
I'm sorry, sir. You're not audible.
On the trade mix, as far as we were around 84%-85% trade and around 15%-16% non-trade. As far as lead distance is concerned, it was 227 km.
Please, and in terms of the fuel mix for this quarter, spot contract coal, Nagaland, and biomass and FSA?
Okay. Our FSA was around 4%. Biomass was around 10%. Nagaland was around 36%, and spot contract coal was around 50%.
Okay, 50%. And then Kcal cost for this quarter was?
Come again. Come again, please.
Kcal cost for this quarter, Q4?
The weighted average cost for fuel was INR 1.7.
Any further reduction possible from here on?
Yeah, so we expect that for the coming year, because we have signed a FSA contract with Coal India for the next 10 years, where we have logged 360,000 tons of coal at about INR 1.5 GCV. So we do expect that contract to, of course, reduce our weighted average cost, and we'll substitute our more expensive coal to now this FSA. So our target for the coming year is about INR 1.55 per GCV weighted average.
Okay. And then this will start from the Q1 itself?
This should start reflecting from quarter one, because we just signed our contract beginning of this month. The coal will start coming from May onwards. So partially in quarter one, and then fully FSA.
Okay. Sir, now particularly on the volume front, so previously we said 18%-20%, so now the clinker 3.3 MTPA-2 MTPA grinding has also started. So how are we now looking at the same kind of 20% kind of volume growth? And also, if you can help us, how far in last one and a half month or two months in this April-May, how in terms of the demand is there?
The demand has been not very great, I would say. It was a reasonable demand, but it was not something which we can think about to say that it is great. As far as our mix is concerned, you're right. Now we have clinker with us, and as we are going ahead in this year, so obviously, we will be focusing on the segment, especially the institutional segment, which we had a pretty less percentage. That will be a big segment for us as far as volume gain is concerned. The percentage of institutional sales will surely go up.
Yeah. And just to add that we had gotten the clinker plant in the third week of April, but we had some technical difficulty with the plant. It took one or two more weeks to properly start getting clinker out of it. So we had to buy clinker from outside in the month of April and also some part of May. So that, of course, in Q1 will have a negative effect, and that is also the reason why we did not push as much because we were running on bought clinker. But now that the plant is running and it's picking up, we are able to operate it at a good TPH. So we are building up the stock, and the problem of shortage of clinker that we faced in Q1 would not be there in Q2 anymore.
Okay. So just to come back to the normal in terms of the summary, so in Q1, if possible, if you can help handle for the full year, how in terms of the volume growth we are looking at? Previously, we said 20%, and then maybe if you can help us in terms of the incentives that will be flowing from the Q1.
Yeah, so we are still looking year-round, we're still looking at a 20% growth. So that stays the way it is. On the incentive part, first, our GST credit that we had spent in a new project will get adjusted. And then from Q2, the GST benefit will start hitting our books because right now we're just adjusting for the GST that we paid in the CapEx. That will first get adjusted, and from Q2, once it's adjusted, I think it should be adjusted by the first week of July. And then we'll start getting the benefit of the GST, which should be in quarter two. So both the benefit of clinker as well as the benefit of subsidies would start accruing to us from quarter two. We can see it in the books in quarter two. It will clearly start affecting policy.
Okay. So previously, what we said, INR 300 per ton GST benefit, IGST on the clinker, and INR 800 for the grinding unit. So for the grinding, we were looking at 150-odd crore- 160-odd crore. So that will remain intact?
Yeah, so that will remain intact. It's just that because we will start getting the benefit in Q2, so it will just start reflecting in Q2 results properly. So from Q2 results, you'll clearly see that there's this jump in the EBITDA per ton because of those reasons.
So lastly, on the pricing and the cost, so net-net from Q1, can we see any because this clinker starting so in terms of any increase in the OpEx cost in the Q1, and then how it will start reducing from the Q2 particularly cost? And so net-net, how much cost reduction are we looking at? That is one. And in terms of the pricing, so current prices versus the fourth quarter averages, how much lower both in Northeast and outside Northeast?
So in terms of cost, of course, the cost had increased because we were commissioning our plants and consuming extra fuel, and parameters for heat rate and all those things kind of take a toll. So by Q2, we should be able to reduce and stabilize our costs and at the same time operate the new kiln at its efficiency. Of course, the kiln is bigger, so the heat rate and other parameters would be lower in the kiln, and so there should be a long-term favor from operating the kiln. In terms of price, the price in Northeast has broadly been stable, whereas the price outside Northeast, which is Bengal and Bihar, has seen a drop, which I think is common across everyone, everywhere in the East. So there is a drop of about INR 300 in prices outside Northeast.
This 300 is from the average of the fourth quarter or the March exit you are seeing?
The 300 is from the March of.
Last quarter and a drop.
Yeah, so the 300 is from the average of the last quarter, basically, quarter four.
Okay. Lastly, on the CapEx front, sir, so how much we have already spent both on clinker and this grinding 2 MTPA, and what is left on the 2 MTPA grinding Silchar and net-net total FY 2025 and FY 2026 CapEx?
I'm sorry. Can you repeat the question?
I'm saying how much we have spent on 3.3 MTPA clinker. What was previously, we were looking at INR 1,250-odd crore, and for Meghalaya 2 MTPA grinding unit, INR 385 crore. So how much out of that we have already spent, and what is left to be spent in this year, and the remaining 2 MTPA Silchar grinding, how much we have spent and how much is left to be spent in FY 2025? And put together everything, the overall net-net FY 2025 CapEx is how much?
Yeah, so we have spent we were supposed to spend about 1,250. Till that date, we have spent about INR 1,035 crores. I think there's another INR 150 crore, INR 200 crores, which will be spent on the clinker plant. So in total, we will be around the 1,250 crores number because there's still some CapEx in terms of silos and all those things which are left in the clinker plant. So the overall number would be about INR 1,250 crores as we had indicated. In Silchar grinding unit, we have till date only spent INR 22 crores. In FY 2025, we plan to spend INR 300 crores in the Silchar grinding unit. So most of the CapEx for the grinding unit will take place in FY 2025, and some part of it will take place in FY 2026.
Today in the board, we had also discussed and decided that we want to put our plant in Jorhat, which is upper Assam. So that will be a fresh CapEx, and the CapEx would be of about INR 450 crore, which will be spent in the next two and a half years. And we expect to commission Jorhat plant in the next two years as we've just started buying the land for it. So for FY 2025, the overall CapEx is expected to be about INR 1,000 crore. This also includes a lot of operational CapEx. It includes group captive solar. It includes AAC Blocks and the BTAP. And it also includes our own fleet that we are expanding now. So it includes a lot of CapEx, which will, of course, give us their own returns. So in FY 2025, we expect INR 1,000 crore investment.
Sorry, sir. I need a clarification both on this, the new expansion Jorhat to the INR 450-odd crore. So what's the grinding capacity of that and this INR 1,000 crore, if you can split it where we are likely to spend, that would be helpful, sir.
Yeah. So the INR 1,000 crores, if I give a split of it, so in the INR 1,000 crores, about INR 220 crores would be spent in the clinker plant, right, just for creating the silos and other amenities that we need to still create in the clinker plant. About INR 300 crores will be spent in Silchar grinding unit. About INR 65 crores would be spent on AAC Blocks and adjacent construction chemical plants. About INR 30 crores would be spent in Jorhat for hitting the lines for the grinding unit. The BTAP, we will be spending about INR 58 crores. That will be to set up the BTAP systems in Guwahati as well as in Siliguri. Group captive will be spending about INR 30 crores. And for operational CapEx, which are related to plant, we'll be spending about INR 150 crores.
The Jorhat capacity will be, sir, how much?
Sorry?
Jorhat from new plant capacity?
That will be 2 million.
2 million. And that will be in FY 2027 will come?
Yes.
Okay. Thank you, and all the best, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question are requested to press star and one on their phone. The next question is from the line of Jyoti Gupta from Nirmal Bang. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. Good set of numbers. I would like to understand what is the demand environment now in the Northeast and the pricing as well, mechanism, how is it playing out? And how do you think, I mean, the substantial capacity addition is coming out. How do you see the market dynamics changing for you with competition intensifying in the next two to three years in the Northeast as well as the markets where you are coming up with your capacity?
So the demand right now, at least in Q1, is a bit subdued. I think that is mainly because of the election and Bihu and Eid, which happened in April, and also the election, which is now also carrying on in May. So the demand is a bit subdued because of those reasons. The price, I think, is broadly stable. And the competition in the next one or two years so for the one year, we are the only ones who actually are getting a clinker plant in the Northeast. So for the one and a half years, I think there would be some stability in terms of the profitability, and it will be growing. And there'll also be a good margin in selling clinker for the next one and a half years.
And then I think that how the competition behaves after two years would just depend on how the demand is and how is the supply-demand situation in the Northeast.
I'm not talking about organic expansion. I'm talking about acquisitions, which would likely happen by other players. They might be buying out plants because there's enough supply in the Northeast market. So obviously, just competition intensify doesn't mean one has to come up with a greenfield project. I mean, acquisitions can also happen. And plus, with you increasing your share in the non-trade segments, will that not impact your margin, your realizations as well going forward?
So, I mean, first of all, on the expansion part, sorry, in organic mergers, acquisitions, and all those things, there's nothing really in the Northeast to acquire. There's nothing really available. So, I don't know what acquisition are we talking about because I don't think there's anything available in the Northeast which is materially sizable and which is ready for sale. So, for a hypothetical situation where there may be a merger and acquisition, then I think the situation is a bit different. We haven't studied that situation yet, so we can't really comment. And what was the other point? Sorry.
My other point was your.
Non-trade margins, right? So yeah, the non-trade, definitely, as we ramp up the non-trade sales, the margins in non-trade may reduce, right, naturally. But at the same time, what we are expecting is to grow in trade as well, right, because we are 85% trade. So if you want to show a 20% growth, we'll have to show a good growth in trade as well. So what we are really trying to do is a 360-degree push where we are also pushing outside Northeast. We're also pushing in non-trade. But at the same time, we have to be very central to our core, which is trade in the Northeast, right? So we are, of course, going to make sure that we are first pushing on trade.
The second, that on an absolute level, we are able to earn much more profit, right, and then also maintain the margin per ton basis. We will be able to maintain the margin because there are a lot of benefits and subsidies and other benefits of operating a bigger kiln, of not deviating L1, not having logistics deviations because of shortage of grinding availability. So all those problems that we used to face earlier, we will not face this year. So there are also some benefits that will come, and I think the margin should broadly be increasing only. It should not be decreasing.
Okay. Thanks, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone. The next question is from the line of Giriraj from MDM TradeCom. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Mr. Giriraj, please use your handset mode.
Yeah. Basically, I have the.
We cannot hear you.
Am I audible now?
Can you use your handset mode, please?
Yeah, I'm on the handset. Am I audible now?
Okay. Go ahead, please.
First, you have pointed out that there's an expansion of about INR 1,000 crore in the current year. Can I have a break-up on how this would be funded? Because already, the company has started taking about INR 82 odd crore of loan in the current year. So how do you plan to fund this INR 1,000 crore?
Yeah. So I think what we expect is that this year, we think about INR 750 crores would be our own cash profit generation that we'll have, right? So that will broadly fund the majority of the INR 1,000 crores. And then the rest would be a bit of debt, right? So just a loan that we'll take. So we have about, I think, about INR 70 crores of debt, and we will probably take about, yeah, about INR 200 crores of more debt by the end of still by the end of the year. So we'll maybe have about INR 300 crores debt, basically.
Okay. Okay. As far as the benefit part is concerned for the GST benefit, what is the kind of expected the number that we can expect benefit in the current year for FY 2025? What is the kind of benefit that the company hopes to realize?
In terms of per ton or in terms of absolute number?
In terms of absolute number.
In terms of absolute number, it would be about, I think, about INR 150 crore-INR 160 crore.
Okay. INR 150 crore-INR 200 crore.
INR 150 crores-160 crores. Yeah.
Okay. As far as Silchar plant is concerned, so the land acquisition has been completed, if I'm not wrong?
Silchar plant?
Yeah.
Yeah. So for Silchar plant, the land acquisition is almost 90% complete. We just need to buy some parcels here and there. We have already gotten the TOR from the MoEF. We'll be having a public hearing in one and a half months. We'll hopefully get it cleared. And after that, we will start commissioning the plant from September, October onwards. And by November, December next year, we should be able to get the plant running.
Q3 FY 2026, we should be operational, right?
Q3 FY 2026, yes, we should be operational. Yes.
Okay. So what's the overall situation as far as the Siliguri plant is concerned? And what has there been the company has been speaking for the last two, three quarters on cost-cutting measures out there? So what's the update on that?
So I think that Siliguri plant has, in terms of cost efficiency, it has reached its; it's become much more efficient than it was. It stabilized very well. But the prices outside Northeast are low, right? And they have actually decreased, which I'm sure is clear from other investor calls of other companies as well. So from that perspective, I think the profitability of Siliguri is, of course, it's profitable, but at the same time, it really depends on the prices as well, which are not in our control. And the utilization, we do plan to ramp up Siliguri now because we have clinker. Earlier, we were not ramping it up because we had shortage of clinker, and we didn't want to buy clinker for Siliguri.
Now that we have Clinker, we plan to operate it at about 16 lakh tons, about 80% capacity year-round.
Okay. Now, in the last two calls, we were told that there have been cost-cutting measures as far as wagons would be ordered, and logistics cost and all could be saved. So have we moved on that particular part, or there's been no significant development on that?
So basically, we are talking about BTAP, basically, like a wagon that will help us transport ash at a cheaper rate. So that wagon, we are going in a lease model on that, and that will help us reduce the cost in terms of the raw material cost. Yeah.
Okay. Okay. Sir, one last question. So what is the current capacity utilization as what we are running in the Q1 on an average?
Of what? Of Siliguri?
The capacity utilization.
Overall capacity utilization.
Yeah, overall capacity utilization.
So we have just commissioned the Clinker plant. So it's just been stabilizing. So I can tell you about the grinding units. I think we are, it would be about, I think, about 65% around.
Okay. Okay. So the demand being very steady right now in Q1. And do you see some results in Q2 or?
That is also. In terms of grinding, we'll be operating at about 78%. That is also just we're operating low also because we've just commissioned a grinding unit in Guwahati, right?
Okay. Okay. How do you see the demand in Q2 or Q3 going forward since Q1 has been very steady as far as we've been informed?
It just depends on how the election happens, what the results are, how the market behaves, looking at the results, what.
Okay. And sir, what is the kind of a drop so with institutional sales coming in, so what is the kind of a beta per ton that would?
I think how the market behaves, how the money flows after the government has been formed in the rural areas through MGNREGA or any other scheme that they have, that will really decide how things go, right?
Sir, since the company has been focusing on institutional sales, so what could be the material impact as far as the EBITDA per ton is concerned? Hello?
Yes, we can hear you.
Yeah.
Mr. Giriraj, please stay connected. We have lost the management connection. Ladies and gentlemen, please stay connected. We have the management team back on the call. Mr. Giriraj, please go ahead.
Yeah. Sir, as the company has been focusing on increasing institutional sales, so what is the kind of a beta per ton impact that could happen?
So I mean, we sell about 15% in non-trade, right? So if it drops by about INR 200 on an average, then we can have a INR 30 per ton and impact on EBITDA per ton. But I would just say that we should not be so fixated on an EBITDA per ton because the EBITDA per ton.
Hello?
Mr. Giriraj? We were unable to hear you.
Hello? Can you hear me now?
Yes, we can.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah. Sorry. So I was just saying that we should not be too fixated on the per ton because the non-trade margin in the Northeast are still healthy. They are 1,200. So even if it goes down from 1,200 to 1,000, it's still INR 1,000 of an EBITDA, right? So we shouldn't only be looking at numbers in per ton basis, and we should also be looking at the gross numbers. So I think it'll have to be a combination of both, but I don't think non-trade prices going a little bit falling a little bit will have a significant impact on the overall EBITDA per ton.
Sir, one last question. Actually, I missed the kind of benefit that the company could see from the 10-year lock-in that you have with Coal India as far as coal supply is concerned. So just can you give a highlight on that because I missed that?
Yeah. So we are doing about one point last year, the average was about INR 1.85 GCV for coal, right? We locked the FSA right now for 360,000 tons at INR 1.5 GCV. So that is almost about 40% of our coal requirement for 10 years. So I think it's just a difference between the GCV into the calorific value into the tonnage, right? So I think it would be about INR 70-odd crore in a year.
Okay. Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone. The next question is from the line of Girija from Asit C. Mehta. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thank you for this opportunity. You mentioned INR 70 crore of savings from that FSA, you said something?
Yeah.
Hello? The INR 70 crore you mentioned, that is the savings per year from the coal, you said, right? If I'm not wrong.
Yeah.
Okay.
Yes.
Yeah. So my first question is with regards to premium product sales. So what is the percentage for the fourth quarter?
Percentage in fourth quarter is around 6.7%, around 7%.
Okay. The incentive you mentioned, it is INR 150 crore-INR 160 crore per year. That is including our clinker unit as well, right? Clinker and grinding unit, both.
Yes. Yes. So that is about INR 150 crores for this year. It will be higher for next year because we will not be missing out in quarter one, right? Because right now, our GST credit has been adjusted for the CapEx that we did, right? So next year, the expectation of the GST benefit is about INR 200 crores because we are missing on quarter one. So this year's benefit is about INR 150 crores.
So FY 2026, we can expect INR 200 crore of that GST benefit you are saying, right?
Yeah. Additional benefit. We are still getting about INR 27 crore. This is on top of the INR 27 crore that we're expecting.
Okay. Okay. Sir, this time, this freight cost, I can see there is a significant increase in freight cost per ton. So what leads us to this kind of increase?
So I think in Q4, mainly it was the deviation, right? Because in Q4, in March, we were just settling our grinding units in Guwahati, and there was very good demand in early March in Guwahati, right? Sorry, in Assam and Northeast, right? So what we had to do at that point was to get cement from Siliguri to Northeast. And because of that reverse movement, of course, it led to an increase in the output rate. And we started using rakes also, which was a bit more expensive than the usual transport, right? So we loaded rakes from Siliguri to serve Northeast, right? So that also led to additional costs. So that was mainly because our grinding unit came in March, and the demand started picking up from January, and we needed extra grinding capacity in those two months, and we had to then get it from Siliguri.
Fair enough. Sir, is there any plan of expansion outside the Northeast? It's like we are well established in the Northeast region. So are we looking at any kind of expansion outside Northeast like Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, somewhere? Because why I'm saying about previous someone was asking about the competition. It's like even UltraTech is coming up with a bulk terminal by, I think, FY 2027. And Dalmia is also a very big competitor of our Star Cement. So that's what any kind of inorganic expansion or acquisition, so that may lead some kind of threat to Star Cement. And most of the companies are also coming up with a lot of premium segment sales where realization is better than the other cement. So what is our future plan, sir?
So, sir, so we are right now looking at another area, which is in Rajasthan. We have so we are looking at Jaisalmer and Nagaur region. And there, we are in the process of acquiring a mine. So that is where we think the profitability outside Northeast is, right? Because we don't see much profitability in south or in east or availability of mines in east. So the natural place to go now is to go to Rajasthan, right? So that is where we think we would be wanting to expand outside Northeast. So our plans, of course, for the next three-four years is to make our 12 million cement capacity in Northeast, including Siliguri, and then try to put up a 4 million-5 million kind of a setup in Rajasthan and start serving the Delhi, NCR, Haryana, Punjab market along with Rajasthan.
This is where we see, right? And about UltraTech, yeah, of course, they may be making a bulk terminal. There were also news about other companies acting upon in Northeast, but we haven't seen any movement in there as such, right? The only movement we see is Dalmia, which is already there in Northeast. And they have announced a project in Northeast, which is significant, and that will be coming in the next one and a half years. So that is what it is, I guess. Yeah.
Okay. Fair enough. Thank you, sir. That's it from my side.
Thank you. Participants are requested to press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Uttam Kumar Srimal from Axis Securities. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, you said in quarter one, the demand is subdued. So that means we will degrowth this year from the last year, or we will be in the same level what we had done last year around 1.16 million tons?
I don't think in the April month, yes, because of a lot of festivities and the elections, the demand was negative. There was a negative growth, industry growth, which we saw. But in the month of May, after the elections and things have gone over, we are seeing some positive growth coming in. And I think if we finish the quarter, we will definitely finish it in a growth. That's what the expectation is. Maybe in the lower single digit, but that should be as well.
Okay. And since we have guidance for 20% volume growth, so balance, we will meet in next two quarters if you.
Yes.
Okay. Okay, sir. That's all from me.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, a final reminder. To ask a question, please press star and one on your phone. The next question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity again. Sir, I couldn't hear the previous participant. So did we say anything growth number for the Q1 that it will be a any number on the growth part for the Q1?
Yeah. So I think in April, there was a slight degrowth. In May, it seemed like an 8%-9% kind of a growth. In July sorry, in June, we expect that we can get about 10% growth. So on a weighted average in quarter one compared to last year's quarter one, we can expect a growth of about 6%-7%.
Okay. 6%-7%. And despite that, in the remaining three quarters, we will be able to catch up and to reach a 20% growth?
Sir, the election will be over by then, and also festivities in Northeast, Bihu, Eid, right? So all those festivities are now done, and also the election will be done. So I think from June onward only, we should start seeing a positive trend in demand. And also, we've got enough clinker plant now. We are ramping it up now. So we had stocked our sales in outside Northeast. We have prevented our sales in non-trade because we were getting delayed in the clinker. Now that we are building up our stock of clinker, we should be able to push for sale, and we should be getting a higher growth.
Okay. So I'm trying to understand both profitability and outside Northeast and the non-trade part. Help me with that. So currently, broadly, we have 55% in the Northeast, 80%-84% in the trade. And as you mentioned, that the non-trade margin in Northeast is INR 1,200 odd. So now, let's clear on the line. How are we looking at this trade share where it will come down? And also at the same time, outside Northeast, how much are we planning to increase our share? And ultimately, in terms of the from the profitability perspective, if I, let's say, remove the pricing part, let's say it is stable, what it is currently, then how the increase in the non-trade and the increase in the share in that, how it will reduce the profitability?
I understand the INR 150 crore-INR 160 crore incentive is beneficial, but if we ignore that, then how that will pan out?
I mean, it will our non-trade sales is about 3%. We can expect it to push to 20%. Our outside Northeast sales is about 25%. We can expect it to push to 28%-29%. Our trade, we, of course, definitely want to grow. In terms of benefits, it's not only the clinker, it's not only the subsidy benefits, but also the trade benefit like we discussed, L1, deviations will not be there. It's also the coal benefit. It's also the production efficiency benefit, right? So those all benefits will also factor in. So yeah, I think with all those things kept in mind, I think it really needs to be seen how the profitability works out, right? I mean, I can't give you an approximate number to that right now. But yeah, I think it should be I think we.
Offset with that.
Yeah. I think it should be broadly offset in terms of operating numbers. And I think if there is a beat on the EBITDA margins, then there will be an increase in the volume proportion to that, right? So I think we should just be focusing on those.
Okay. You can end up quite broadly the outside Northeast.
Tushar, you were sounding muffled. Now it is fine. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Sorry. Was I not clear?
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Fine. I got the answer. So sir, in the fourth quarter, broadly, the yeah. Can you hear me?
Tushar, sir, can you hear me?
Mr. Shah, you're sounding muffled. Can you repeat that question?
Is it fine now? Can you?
No, it is muffled.
Sir, I hope now it should be better.
Yes. Please go ahead.
Sir, I was trying to understand that cost part is outside Northeast. In the fourth quarter, how was the profitability? Because in the third quarter, it was around 300 odd INR. So given the prices were lower, was it a kind of a flattish kind of a profitability in the fourth quarter outside Northeast? And second is the bigger one is now we are looking at INR 1,000 crore CapEx. And also, as you mentioned, we want to grow outside Northeast, particularly Rajasthan. So broadly, from 2026, 2027 onwards, can we see a kind of a 800 kind of a 1,000 crore kind of a CapEx can be there? So ultimately, how one can look at the netted going forward for next three, four years down the line?
Ladies and gentlemen, please stay connected. We've lost the management connection. We have the management team back on the call. Mr. Shah, I'm sorry. Please go ahead. Please repeat your question.
Sir, I'm repeating. So what was the profitability EBITDA per ton outside Northeast in the fourth quarter? Because in third quarter, it was INR 300-odd. Just trying to understand, given the pricing were much lower, was it a negative or a flattish for the fourth quarter?
It was about 260 compared to 500 last year, same quarter.
Okay. Okay. And then now, sir, given the kind of expansion that we are looking at, so Jorhat INR 450 crore plus Rajasthan, so how one can look at in terms of the CapEx for next three-four years broadly? What's the thought that ultimately, the netted, how one can look at three-four years down the line?
We are looking at if we do the Rajasthan project, it will be for three years if we take a three-year support as a plan. We would have to spend about INR 2,500 crore to set up 4.5 million-5 million ton capacity, including the clinker plant. We will have about INR 1,500 crore, including the INR 1,000 crore we just mentioned in Northeast. So that will be about INR 4,000 crore of CapEx. So this INR 4,000 crore of CapEx in the next three years will be financed through our own accrual. It will also be financed through some part of it will be financed through debt, and some part we still have to decide how we want to get it financed. Would it be a QIP or any other source of financing?
Sir, even if we let's say our profitability will definitely be much lower versus the Northeast, which is the case with even other places also, will it make sense to go in the lower profitability or still we can squeeze whatever reduces left in the Northeast?
No. I think we've already set up a 3.3 million ton clinker plant. It is increasing from a 2.6 million tons to a 6 million tons capacity of clinker. So I mean, the natural step is, of course, to go outside, right? And I think whatever juice needs to be extracted out of Northeast is in which way the clinker is good enough for Northeast for the next three years, four years, right? So I think from that perspective, I think we are going outside, and the profitability is much lower, but the ROIs are still decent for good sales. So I think we should not look at only EBITDA per ton, but we should also be looking at the volume that one gets being a mainland player.
And that is what we'll be focusing on, that capacity utilization, the volume, and also the profitability outside is, of course, lower than Northeast, but the volume is more than compensated, right? So the actual return to money is much faster than in Northeast. So I think there's an entire calculation to it, right? So I think we're just, of course, going to do a project which gives us a good IRR on our investment, and that's how we will take it, right?
Okay. And lastly, sir, this 12 MW WHRS with the clinker, has it also started or will it be starting in maybe a one or two?
It will be starting in August, September.
Okay. Okay. Okay. And this 24 MW solar, when will it be starting?
No. So we are now going for a group captive model. So we will be locking that in a week's time, and that will be a hybrid model where we will be setting up 26 MW of solar plus wind with a company in the middle. And so yeah, we're going for that now.
Okay. So currently, our green share is how much and this 12-MW WHRS and when this will come, this 24-MW group captive, when we'll start using it, and our green share will increase to how much by so I think in 25% by 2026. So if you can help us.
We haven't locked the contract, so I can't comment about it. As soon as we lock it, we'll let you know.
Okay. Lastly, in terms of the.
Mr Shah, I request you to join back the queue, please.
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, we'll take the last two questions. The next question is from the line of Naitik Mehta from Sequent Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir, and thank you for the opportunity.
Thanks, Mehta. Please use your handset mode. You're not very clear.
I will say good evening, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. Most of my questions have been answered. Just one, what are the volumes that we are expecting out of the Guwahati grinding unit and Meghalaya clinker unit for FY 2025, respectively?
So the target that the company has taken is to go from 4.4 million tons to 5.5 million tons. So that would be a 1.1 million tons increasing the grinding capacity. And that, sorry, 1.1 million tons increasing the sales. That 1.1 million tons increasing the sales will—at least 80% of that or 90% of that—will be coming from the new Guwahati plant. So the utilization would be about 50% of the new Guwahati plant. And for the clinker, we would require—about to produce about 5.5 million tons, we'll require about 3.9 million tons. So about 1 million tons of clinker will be produced using this new clinker plant. And then also, we'll be producing about 4 lakh tons-5 lakh tons of clinker that we plan to sell because Northeast right now is also a very good market for clinker.
Okay. So, sir.
What we plan to do is that we plan to shut our old line, line one, which is inefficient and our line three, and take some repairs and improvements in line one.
All right.
Mr. Mehta, does that answer your question?
Yes. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Hemant Soni, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Sir, thank you for providing me the opportunity. Sir, I have a few questions. First question is, as per a media interview in June 2023, we had initially guided for 18%-20% volume growth in FY 2024, but I think the same was missed. Is there any specific reason for that? I'm not this company. That's why I'm asking you, sir.
We had shown a growth of 14% in Northeast. That is mainly because of clinker because we thought that the clinker plant would come sooner. It did not. We have shown a 14% growth in Northeast. Our growth outside Northeast was only -1%. So I think if we would have ramped up on outside Northeast as well as grown in Northeast more aggressively with the new clinker that we if we had gotten in time, then we could have had a higher growth rate, right? So I think what we led to having a lower growth rate is one month delay in the grinding unit in Guwahati and delay in the clinker plant.
What is the total sales volume for FY2024?
Mr. Soni, may I request you to mute, please, once you're done with your question? There's some disturbance on your line.
Yeah. Yeah. Sure.
Thank you.
What is the sales volume for FY2024?
It is 4.4 million tons.
FY 2024, sir?
No, FY 2024, 4.4 million tons.
Okay, sir. Sir, one more thing I wanted to ask you is, since we have a subdued Q1, okay, but you told us that there will be a lower single-digit growth in Q1, so how confident are we for 18%-20% volume growth in FY2025? Because Q2 will again be a lean season due to monsoon.
No, actually, it's just that that is what our team is aiming at, right? I cannot give you a probability of achieving it. We are sure that we will be able to ramp up in the next two, three quarters, right? And I think from that perspective as well, I think we'll be looking at quarter-on-quarter growth. Year growth is one benchmark, but in case there's a miss in quarter one because we are settling our clinker capacity and bringing it to action, we, of course, will try to make up in quarter two. So irrespective, you'll see a better growth rate in quarter two, and you will see that year by year, from quarter two onwards, we are growing healthily, right? That number could be 15%, that could be 20%, that could be 25% even. That is to be seen. That depends on how the market plays.
Our internal target is, sir, 18%-20% kind of volume growth in FY 2025, right?
Yeah. It is about 18% to 25%.
So 18% to 25%.
18% to 25%.
It is 20%.
Okay. And what I understand from our conversation is Q2 should be better than Q1. There will be a quarter-on-quarter recovery.
Yes.
One more thing, sir, what is the EBITDA per ton on a blended basis we are targeting for FY 2025?
For blended basis, we are targeting about 15%-15%.
Sir, your voice is a little muffled. Can you please come again, sir?
15%, 15%.
Mr. Soni, can you please mute your line? There's background noise on your line.
Yeah. Yeah. I'll do that right now, ma'am. Just what is the, sir, EBITDA per ton target for FY2025?
15%, 15%.
15%, 15%, right?
Yeah. Yeah.
Sir, what is this 800 TPD AAC block?
AAC blocks basically produce AAC. It is a plant that we have commissioned which produces AAC blocks. AAC blocks are a kind of brick that we use for construction that basically sells in the same channel as the non-trade cement and uses cement as a raw material and also fly ash and sand. So it has a lot of synergy with cement. And the market in Northeast is growing very fast. It's going at about 20% for AAC blocks. So that's why we wanted to get into this industry and to see. That's a really good response. Yeah. And see how it works out for us and also leverage our brand name into this industry as well because this is also a very close construction material.
Sir, this unit has already been commissioned?
No. It will be commissioned in August.
In August. So it will fetch some sort of additional revenue, sir, right? So what kind of additional revenue you are expecting in FY 2025 from this unit and in FY 2026 as well?
So the revenue, because it's a very low-value product, so the revenue will not be too high. It would be about, I think, about INR 35 crore-INR 40 crore. And it will just give and the profitability is decent. It's about 20% margin. So the profitability will be about INR 10 crore from this.
Okay, sir. And sir, the 18%-20% volume growth, it excludes the—I mean, it excludes the product from the AAC block, right?
Yes. Yes. It excludes the product of AAC block.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you. Tushar, I was just in line to ask you one question from my end. It's basically about the Northeast market. So in the recent past, we have been hearing quite a lot of new regional players applying for mines in Northeast or scouting for land in Northeast. You have been born and brought up in Northeast, or your family belongs in Northeast. So I just wanted to understand from you your perspective about the ground reality as to do you think that all these players are serious players in the long term, or they are just coming in Northeast with an announcement, and they may not be very serious in the long term as far as their plans are concerned? Just wanted to take a view on that.
Yeah. No, completely. I think it will be very hard for me to say if these players will, in the long run—long run means about five-10 years—be able to come to Northeast or not. I just think that right now, what we've done in Star Cement is we entered the demands which would have been coming in Northeast. And what has really done what we've achieved is that in a market which is about 11 million-12 million, we've been able to set up about 3.3 million clinker. So about 5 million tons of additional grinding capacity.
Tushar, I'm sorry. Actually, I lost your audio. Can you repeat what you said, please, if you don't mind?
Okay. So sorry. Yeah. I was just saying that in Northeast, it will be very hard for me to comment if there are any players in the long run who would be able to come or not. What I can say is that in Star Cement, we have been able to preempt the demand which is coming in Northeast. We are well-equipped in the sense that we are getting about 3.3 million tons of clinker in a market which is of 12 million tons of cement, right? And even Dalmia, after one and a half years, will be getting a capacity similar to this, right? So both Dalmia and Star Cement together are actually serving the capacity that is required for Northeast. I think any other player who comes in Northeast, I don't see how his economics would work out, right?
Because this market right now, with that capacity and also the coming capacity, will be saturated in terms of, right? And to kind of any benefit that we see in Northeast of SGST, of any other benefit, comes when you sell that you have that kind of a revenue base, right? If you don't have that kind of a revenue base, then those benefits are not that significant. So because we have been here for 20 years, we can see those benefits, right? So I think the overall costing and the timelines of putting up a greenfield in Northeast for outside players is long, right? Because the area has its own problems, right? I mean, Northeast has been a market since the last 20 years. So if the last player had to come, they could have come anytime, right? But it's not a recent because the dynamics here work differently.
It's not Rajasthan, or it's not Jaisalmer or Nagaur where you have a flat piece of land where you just buy a piece of land and put up a plant, right? It's a different dynamic, right? There's a lot of forest areas. There's a lot of tribal areas. There are a lot of its own dynamics, right, which I don't think a mainland player is spending enough time to understand. So I, from my perspective, do not see a plant coming from any other mainland player in five years. That's what I can see. Rest, of course, after five years, anything can happen. Anyone can come anywhere, right? So that forecast, I can't give.
But from my perspective, honest feedback, I don't see any plant coming up in four-five years because it's also a long gestation period of acquiring land, applying for mining leases, getting our plants ready, setting up a plant here. It's not as easy as setting it up in Gujarat or Rajasthan or Andhra because everything is just harder here in terms of logistics, in terms of procurement, in terms of everything.
Correct. Tushar, I completely get your point. Actually, I was asking more from the perspective of some of the players have started announcing that they acquired land, mines, etc. So I remember there was a disconnect between your ground checks and the announcements which have been made. So from that perspective, I'm asking that.
Sorry for cutting you, but for example, JK Lakshmi announced that they have acquired a mine, right? I mean, everyone knows that just buying a plot of land doesn't give you the minerals reserve, right? It has to come in auction as well. So I don't think there's any auction which has happened of their mines. So we won't be able to, so I don't see how some of the players which have announced how they are setting up a clinker plant is not visible to me, honestly. They could be buying a piece of plot, but that piece of plot needs to also have the mining lease, right, which is an auction process, which then everyone is going to participate, right? So any auction which comes at a time, again, will have to go through auction. So that auction, everyone is going to participate. Everyone is interested in Northeast.
So what are the premiums going to look like, right? Will there be 200%, 250%? Will we get 5%, 15%, 200%, 250% of premiums? Will they be able to compete effectively? These are the questions which I think someone who's looking in Northeast will have to answer, right? And I think that will be the difference. So yeah, I think that is what my feedback is. And making a well-integrated in Northeast, that, of course, gives them some kind of advantage, but it's not solving the problem, right, because it's Clinker in Northeast. So how are we going to have Clinker in Northeast?
Understood, Tushar. Thanks a lot, Tushar, on behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. We'd like to thank the management of Star Cement for the call, and many thanks to participants joining the call. Yashashri, thank you for conducting the call. Thank you very much, everyone. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd., that concludes the conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line.