Earnings Call: Q2 2024

Aug 11, 2024

The leader of Central America, and Carlos Horacio Yusty, the VP of the Colombia division. First, I would like to ask you to carefully read the legal disclaimer that is currently being projected on the screen, which is also available on the presentation that is posted on our website. Please take into account that all the discussions of the financial and operational results held during the call will be based on the adjusted figures, excluding non-recurring and non-core operations. For a detailed reconciliation of the adjustments, please refer to the annexes of our presentation. Today, after the initial remarks, there will be a Q&A session. If you have a question, please raise your hand by pressing the icon at the bottom of your screen at any time during the conference. We will record this session and upload it to our webpage. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Juan Esteban. Thank you, Irina, and welcome to everyone joining us today. During the second quarter of the year, we continued to move forward with the execution of our share price recovery initiative, SPRINT 2.0, which, as you may know, aims to close the gap between the market value of our shares and the fundamental value of our company. On June 13th, we carried out our shareholders' meeting to approve additional dividend payments and an increase in the share repurchase program. With our shareholders' approval, we have shipped a total of COP 585 billion in dividends for the current year and a share repurchase program of COP 500 billion to be executed within 2 years. To the date of this call, we have executed COP 126 billion of this new share repurchase program and a total of COP 251 billion in shares repurchases since the beginning of the program on September 2023. Additionally, as discussed in our previous call, we executed on May 3 the conversion of 99.8% of our common non-voting shares into common shares. That resulted in a simplified capital structure comprised of nearly 100% common shares. The proposal to convert these shares aimed to consolidate all float and liquidity into a single class, meeting the float-adjusted market cap thresholds required by global indexes such as the MSCI. Recent analyst reports indicate that we are nearing inclusion in these indexes, with the FTSE Russell set to announce its latest review at the end of this month. Yes, Juan. Both the price and the liquidity of our common shares have increased substantially since we launched the SPRINT program, especially following the announcement of the second phase, which included the share conversion as its cornerstone initiative. The share price has increased over 20% since February, when we announced the enhanced pillars, almost 4 times as much as the MSCI COLCAP Index in the same period. In terms of liquidity, during the last month, we've seen an average daily traded volume of $1.8 million, in contrast with less than $200,000 at the end of 2022. We've reached a total market cap of $2.8 billion and a float-adjusted market cap of approximately $1.3 billion, which, as you mentioned, brings us closer to become eligible for inclusion in the FTSE Russell and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. We will continue to work tirelessly to actively manage our possible inclusion in these indices, aiming to attract further inflows into the common stock. That will allow us to continue closing the value gap of our company. Thank you, Felipe. Moving on to the business results for the second quarter and first half of the year, I will start with a brief discussion of the U.S. market, where we have exposure through our 31% stake in Summit Materials. First, it is important to mention that the integration with Summit Materials is advancing satisfactorily, and we are still on track to generate the expected $40 million in synergies for the year. In fact, during the first semester, $17.5 million in synergies have already been captured. Accordingly, earlier this week, Summit reiterated its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance range. Market-wise, despite weather-related disruptions, primarily in the Houston market with private construction activity and reduced cement import volumes in the river markets, Summit managed to deliver strong quarterly results. This reflect the advantageous position the company holds, poised to capitalize on market opportunities. In relation to the regions where we directly operate, Colombia, Central America, and the Caribbean, we dispatched 2.5 million tons of cement and 686,000 cubic meters of ready-mix concrete during the quarter, increasing 2% and close to 1% respectively versus last year. This positive volume execution is due to the dynamics of the Dominican Republic, Honduras, and the Antilles in cement, as well as Colombia in ready mix that exhibited important improvements during the quarter. In terms of the EBITDA, our operations achieved a total quarterly EBITDA of COP 280 billion, equivalent to $71 million, 11% above last year. These results are in line with the positive volume execution, the efficiencies carried out in Colombia, and the softening of inflation across our geographies. In terms of net profit, that includes both the results from the markets where we directly operate and the 31% stake in Summit that is registered via equity method, we reached a result during the quarter of COP 127 billion, equivalent to $32 million, which implies a 6% decrease versus 2023. Year-to-date, our net profit stands at COP 200 billion, equivalent to $51 million, with a variation of -21% versus last year. As discussed in our last call, the decline, both in the quarterly and the year-to-date figures, is explained by the seasonality of Summit's legacy operations that generate most of its net profit during the second and third quarter of the year. Additionally, in our financial expenses, there were one-time premiums associated to certain hedging operations that also affected the net results of our company. To deep dive into our operations, I would like to ask Carlos Horacio to explain further the results of Colombia, where we continue to exhibit positive results despite challenging market conditions. Thank you, Juan, good morning, everyone. Our results during the second quarter of the year were positive, with EBITDA increasing 14% and margins expanding 332 basis points year-over-year, despite total cement volumes declining 5%. The quarterly EBITDA totaled COP 168 billion, and our margin stood at 22.6%. Our local cement volumes decreased by 10%, while exports increased by 13%, partially offsetting the decline in domestic dispatches. In contrast, Ready-mix volumes increased 4% versus 2023, accounting for 634,000 cubic meters. During the quarter, we continued to implement our commercial strategy, which leverages in the strength of our brand. This approach has allowed us to maintain stable prices throughout the year and to selectively choose the market and projects we serve, thereby protecting our company's value proposition. We have executed this commercial strategy at a high level of detail, not only in our cement business, but also in our ready mix business. We recognize that every sale impacts our result and must be analyzed and executed in alignment with the overall strategy of the company. This commercial strategy complemented our program of efficiencies from the quarry to the client that we started to implement since last year, anticipating the challenging market conditions that we are currently experiencing. For the second quarter, we achieved savings of COP 40 billion in logistic costs and in production costs of both cement and ready mix. This was partially due to the redesign of certain go-to-market strategy is to serve clients differently and to the increased reliability of our plants that allowed us to release a capacity equivalent to 600,000 tons of cement and 170,000 tons of clinker since the beginning of the project in 2023, which started in our Rioclaro plant, enabling us to plan our deliveries more efficiently. Additionally, the softening of the inflation curve has positively affected our cost structure, in particular the cost of the coal that is the most important energy used in Colombia for the cement process. Regarding the country's dynamics, the total cement dispatches in Colombia decreased 6.5% year-to-date versus 2023, mainly due to a slower activity in both the formal and informal residential segment. This slower dynamic is the result of the housing sales declines that we experienced in Colombia during 2023, when total sales declined 57% versus 2022 because of the pause in the allocation of house subsidies amid the traumatic transition to a new subsidy granting system. As you probably know, the dynamics of the housing sales are reflected in construction starts, and therefore, cement dispatches 12 to 18 months later, and in that regard, the current behavior of the market was fully anticipated. In the same line, it is important to highlight that the new housing sales have already started to stabilize, with sales in the first half of the year increasing 10% versus the same period of last year, which anticipates future improvements within the next 12 to 18 months in the local cement dispatches. On the mortgage rates, the inflation softening, and the improvement in the system established by the government to grant the housing subsidies will surely contribute to greater improvements in the sales of houses for the months to come. Regarding the infrastructure segment, it is important to mention that the major cities of the country, the local governments, have ambitious plans to develop public infrastructure projects during the following 4 years. In Bogota, for instance, the mayor has publicly stated that he plans to invest around COP 22 trillion in several programs additional to the metro that will impact the mobility of the city and the public infrastructure. In total, there are 70 different works to be executed in the city during the next 4 years, including 80 km of new roads, 46 roads interchange, 7 mid-sized infra projects, and 400,000 sq m of new public space. The city is already executing some of these projects, such as the new lines of TransMilenio, the Calle Trece, and the green corridor on the Seventh Street. Bogota has several important residential projects that are going to be executed within the next 4 years that will demand at least 1 million thousand cubic meters of Ready-mix concrete in total. In Barranquilla, the mayor has launched a project called Barrios a la Hora to invest around COP 600 billion during the next four years to build roads in different neighborhoods of the city, improving the quality of life of the inhabitants in urban conditions, mobility, and in pedestrian traffic. For 2024, we expect in Barranquilla a total investment of COP 10 billion in this project to build 20 new kilometers of roads. In Cali, there are 5 different projects that will start execution during 2024 that we estimate will demand around 75,000 cubic meters of ready-mix concrete. These projects include new roads as well as public space. In Antioquia, we are currently dispatching a significant amount of cement monthly for the second phase of Hidroituango, and we estimate that for the second half of the year, the dispatches will represent around 4% of the total volume sold locally within Colombia. Additionally, volumes should be dispatched for this project during 2025 and 2026, but are still difficult to forecast the right amount. Finally, in Bolivar, the mayor of Cartagena is committed to improve the quality of the roads of the city and will invest in the second half of the year around COP 68 billion pesos to improve the public infrastructure. The governor has a very interesting pipeline and infrastructure projects as well. We continue to believe in the potential of our country and to wisely and selectively deploy investment that will allow us to navigate the current situation and to capture future efficiencies. For instance, we have purchased this year 30 new mixer trucks that started operations in July. In the months to come, we will continue to execute our program of efficiencies from the quarry to the client to protect our value proposition and to selectively execute our commercial strategy aiming to protect the profitability of our business. Thank you, Carlos. Now moving on to the Caribbean and Central America, Gustavo will now go over the financial and operational results of the region, which despite some challenging markets and complex demand environment, we managed to continue delivering solid and profitable results. Thank you, Juan, and good morning, everyone. As you just mentioned, we are pleased with the results achieved in the Caribbean and Central American region during the first half of the year. Our strategic market approach and the complementary nature of these markets have driven to positive outcomes. Notably, the Dominican Republic delivered stellar performance. Honduras exhibited a good performance, particularly in terms of volumes, while Haiti achieved near break-even results within its still challenging social and political situation, all of which boosted our overall results. Let's start by addressing the dynamics in the Central American countries. To fully understand the region's result, it is important to consider that during the quarter, we transformed the ready-mix business of Panama, transitioning from a business that was directly operated by us into a new model where we partner with strategic allies that will lease and operate our assets. This transformation led us to make certain provisions in relation to the reduction of headcount that are excluded from our adjusted figures and properly disclosed in the annex of our presentation. Taking that into account, the adjusted EBITDA generation by Central America during the second quarter amounts to COP 20 million, close to 2% above last year and 2% higher on a year-to-date basis. We expect this strategic transition to lead to a more profitable operation in line with our strategic vision for the region. As for the regional cement volumes, we reached 443,000 tons during the second quarter and remained stable both on a quarter-versus-quarter and a year-to-date basis. Much in line with operational results and pricing dynamics, revenues suffered a mild decrease of 1.3% during the quarter and 1.6% year-to-date. Such results led to an EBITDA margin of 28.6% during the quarter, which is 84 basis points to superior to the second quarter of 2023. On a year-to-date basis, margins stood at 28.1%, 100 basis points above the results for the first semester of 2023. On a country level basis in Panama, in addition to the transformation of the ready-mix business that I just mentioned, we completed during the quarter the dredge of the port that will allow us to double the size of the boats that dock at the port from 20,000 tons to 50,000 tons as a pivotal element in our business strategy in the country. This project strategically positions us to expand beyond local market and to source imported materials to supply local needs, lowering costs and reinforcing our ambition to strengthen ourselves as an export hub for the region, while enabling us to pursue new opportunities in the industry, such as the export of aggregates and other materials. In terms of market dynamics, cement dispatches decreased in Panama due to a government transition that usually puts on halt certain projects and overall softens the industrial activity of the country. The volume contraction stood at 11% quarter-over-quarter and is expected to be reverted within the second half of the year after the new government is positioned. We maintain a positive perspective in the country based on our strategic transformation and in the newly elected government that we expect will incentivize infrastructure spending, potentially fostering positive future market dynamics. Moving to Honduras, as we expected, volumes were boosted by a higher public spending execution and posted a 7% increase during the quarter versus last year. In line with volume dispatches and the softening cost environment, EBITDA grew 13% and margins expanded by 252 basis points. To continue our profitability quest in the country, we are close to finishing the Pozzolan dryer in Honduras, a project of $8 million of CapEx that aims to reduce the proportion of clinker used in our average portfolio by around 7%. Such initiative will result in a reduction of an average variable cost per ton of cement of around 4%, together with lower CO2 emissions derived from the lower clinker cement factor. Efficiencies for such project will be captured next year. Our operations in Guatemala continued to exhibit a positive demand environment during the quarter, resulting in cement dispatches increasing by 25% year-over-year. We will continue to monitor the market strategically, always prioritizing profitability, confident in the country's potential. Focusing on the Caribbean region, we observed an overall volume expansion during the quarter as we move into softer comparable bases for 2023. Since our production halt in Haiti was incorporated in the second quarter of last year, we experienced an 8% increase in volume dispatches for the region, driven primarily by solid market dynamics in the Dominican Republic, Antilles, and Puerto Rico. Excluding Haiti, cement volumes in the rest of the region exhibited a 10% year-over-year increase during the quarter. On a year-to-date perspective, volumes excluding Haiti experienced an expansion of 7%. Within the Caribbean, the main drivers of the 36.2% expansion in EBITDA for the quarter and 36.4% for the first semester, along with an EBITDA margin expansion of 452 and 568 basis points respectively, can be attributed to the following. The Dominican Republic, where markets continue to be entirely sold out and we continue to operate at full capacity, given the continued strong and stable conditions of local cement consumption from previous quarters. Tourism, mining, and other services and products are some of the sectors that continue to boost the economy. Prices remained stable during the quarter with, well, whilst volumes increased by 12%. This dynamic, coupled with healthy cost environment, resulted in EBITDA generation 19% higher year-over-year. Puerto Rico's volumes continue to positively evolve, posting a 6% increase during the quarter. It is important to highlight that EBITDA profitability generation of the country during the first semester of the year, our EBITDA has doubled with respect to 2023. Margin expanded 536 basis points. Future dynamics of the country will be influenced by the U.S. presidential election to be held in November, as well as the country's governor election. Finally, Antilles demand continues to be supported by the Dominica airport construction, with volumes increasing 20% during the first 6 months of the year and EBITDA increasing 58% over the last year. Moving on to the trading business, we continue to monitor overall regional dynamics. Despite slowdown in some countries during the quarter, we managed 197,000 tons of cementitious materials for Summit Materials and 126,000 tons of other raw materials as part of the supply agreement. In total, our trading unit exhibited a 7% EBITDA expansion. During the quarter, the Houston port, now part of Summit Materials, started to operate under a newly renovated structure that will allow us to take larger ships, improving the economics of our trading business. The Central American and Caribbean region has proven to be resilient, and we will continue to focus our efforts on capitalizing on opportunities that are consistent with our strategy. For the quarter, EBITDA totaled $38 million with an EBITDA margin of 25.1%. These figures represent a significant year-over-year increase of 12.5% in EBITDA and an improvement of 135 basis points in the EBITDA margin. For the first six months, EBITDA was 13.3% above last year, amounting to $72 million with an EBITDA margin of 24.4%. We expect to maintain the positive dynamics and results presented today for the remaining six months of the year while considering the impact of seasonality in some countries of the region. Thank you, Gustavo. Before moving to the closing remarks, I would like to ask Felipe to discuss the balance statement and to provide us with an update on the total debt and the financial expenses. Sure, Juan. During the second quarter, we entered into certain contracts to hedge the exports coming out of Cartagena and secured an FX rate above 4,200 COP for the remainder of the year. The premiums incurred impacted our financial expense in the quarter. So far, we have already secured a significant benefit coming out of this program. In terms of our indebtedness levels, our net debt to EBITDA ratio stood at 2.1 times as of the end of June, in line with the level observed the previous quarter, allowing us to maintain our financial flexibility. With respect to the SPRINT 2.0 program, to the date of this call, we have successfully converted our common non-voting shares into common shares. We have advanced in the integration of our U.S. operations with Summit. We have delivered strong results in line with the guidance, achieving a year-to-date EBITDA margin of 21.5%, aligned with our objective of surpassing the 22% mark by the year-end. We also have continued to execute the Market Maker Program, which has increased its activity by 7 times vis-à-vis the second quarter of 2023. We have executed more than COP 200 billion in share buybacks so far this year and will distribute COP 585 billion in dividends throughout the 2024, 2025 dividend cycle. We continue to be focused on actively managing our possible inclusion into the indices such as the FTSE Russell and the MSCI Emerging Markets, and in increasing the liquidity of our common shares to a range between $3 million and $5 million of average daily traded volume over the next couple of years. Thank you, Felipe. Before moving to the Q&A, I would like to mention that given our strong results, we intend to reaffirm the guidance provided on our last earnings call. We remain fully convinced on our ability to achieve the guidance and to continue to deliver value to our investors. We can proceed now with the Q&A section. Thank you, Juan. We will proceed with the Q&A. Please remember that in order to ask a question, you need to raise your hand using the icon that is at the bottom of your screen. I will say your name and company and will enable your microphone. Please take into account that you need to unmute your microphone before you speak. First question comes from Alberto Valerio from UBS. Thanks, Indira. Hi, Juan, Felipe, Carlos. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions on my side. First one, in terms of operational level, we see both markets, Colombia market and also the CCA market, with a price a little bit more stabilized, look like stabilized, with volumes in Colombia dropping. In CCA, still strong volumes. My question is what should we expect in terms of price, and how have been competition for those markets? My second question is about strategic plan for the company. Look like you well executed the Sprint plan. Well done. Congratulations to you guys. Looking forward, what should we expect from Argos in terms of market, if you look to expand and footprint in any regions? We know that there is some assets, on sales, on Central American, also Brazil, Argentina. If you could talk a little bit, give some details to us. I know that is difficult, but I think it's worth to try to see what it's in your mind. Thank you very much. Thank you, Alberto, for your questions. In terms of prices, I mean, you are completely correct. I mean, we see prices stable both in Colombia and in Central America and the Caribbean. The reality is that the team in Colombia has been doing a fantastic job during the last 2 years, bringing prices to a level which is now a level in which we are very comfortable, I mean, close to $110 FOB. Remember that prices were very low in Colombia a few years ago. We still think that there is room to continue improving prices, but the reality is that demand in Colombia is challenging, and we foresee that the demand will continue challenging for the remaining of the year. In spite of that, we are extremely happy with the expansion in margins in Colombia and with the increased EBITDA and the profitability of the operation. The market is always a competitive and challenging market. Our value proposition is highly valued and accepted by our clients. We are foreseeing a strong second half of the year in Colombia. Similarly, in Central America and the Caribbean, in our main markets, I mean, prices are stable. Demand fundamentals are a little bit better in Central America and the Caribbean in our main markets. You saw in our prepared remarks that volumes are increasing in Honduras, in the Dominican Republic, in Puerto Rico, in the Antilles. The reality is that we foresee prices stable in the second half of the year in Central America and the Caribbean. In terms of our strategy going forward, I mean, in 2024 we are fully concentrated, first of all, in the integration of our assets in the U.S. with Summit, which is going extremely well. We will continue fully concentrated on improving the profitability of our businesses in Central America and the Caribbean, lowering the indebtedness of the company to even gain more financial flexibility. We will continue as well expanding our export platform, not only Cement and clinker, but also complemented with Aggregates and Pozzolans. We are not foreseeing any significant deployment of capital for the remaining of the year other than in our core businesses and in our export platform. Perfect. [Foreign language] Next question comes from Pablo Ricalde, from Santander. Hello, Indira. I don't know if you can hear me. Yes, we can, Pablo. Hi, Cementos Argos team. I have two questions on Central America. The first one is regarding competition. We saw a big M&A earlier this week, and Cementos Progreso is becoming a very important player in the region. I just want to hear your thoughts on competition in the region. I would say that that's my first question. The second question is also on M&A activity in the Caribbean. What are you seeing there in terms of multiples, opportunities? Is there any region, any country you're interested in participating? Thank you, Pablo. Yeah, we saw the important announcement of Progreso in the Dominican Republic. I mean, we don't foresee any changes in the dynamic in that market. I mean, Progreso is a value, you know, value-looking company, and after that significant investment, after that, the shareholders will be expecting, I mean, a good return on that investment. I mean, there are some major companies such as Cemex exiting some of our, of the markets in Central America and the Caribbean, and other players such as Progreso expanding their operations. It is a region that we like. I mean, it reaffirms our, you know, view that Central America and the Caribbean is a very interesting market going forward. We like the constructive fundamentals of the market, very young population, and a significant need of housing and infrastructure going forward. The reality is that we don't foresee, like, any major changes in the dynamics of those markets. In terms of M&A, once again, we will concentrate our efforts in our current operations. Still, we have a task to do, and it is to continue closing the gap between the fundamental value of the company and our share price in the Colombian stock market, which has been performing extremely well, but we still consider that there is a gap. At the same time, there is an opportunity to continue improving the profitability of our business. In the foreseeable future, we will be concentrating on that. Perfect. Thanks a lot. Next question comes from Marcelo Furlan from Itaú. Yes. Hi, Juan. Hi, Felipe. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. My question is related to costs, operating in Colombia. I mean, you guys had a good performance in the second quarter in Colombia driven by the spread across specifically logistics. I would like you guys, if you could please elaborate a little bit more about the main strategies the company have for cost performance in Colombia. Looking ahead from 2025 onwards, what could I expect in terms of sustainable margins for Cementos Argos as a whole? These are my two questions. Thank you, guys. Thank you, Marcelo. Carlos, you can give Marcelo more color on our cost strategy, successful cost strategy in Colombia. Okay, Juan. Hi, Marcelo. I think that like we mentioned in the script, everything start with the increase of our OEE in our operations of cement in Colombia. We have that about a 10% in this indicator. This indicator is a very comprehensive indicator, but at the end it's an indicator of reliability of our plants. Just to give you a little more color, in the past probably we need to serve one market that is not the most closer market, with X plant. Now, with this increase in our reliability, we can serve the markets that are very close to every plant. Like I mentioned, we have increased our grinding capacity in about 600,000 tons. In terms of clinker, so far we have increased in about 170,000 tons. The most important, that this is with no CapEx involved, is just increasing our reliability in our plants. Mainly this increase of capacity is in our Rioclaro's plant. Remember that we have two major plants or two most important plants of Colombia for our logistic that are the Rioclaro and Cartagena plant. Thank you, Marcelo. Just to complement Carlos, I mean, going forward, we still see that there is room to continue expanding and improving our margins at a consolidated basis. This year we have the target to exceed 22%, but we still consider that midterm, we should be at 25% at least. We are executing some projects which are low CapEx but high-impact projects. Carlos mentions the reliability initiative that he's deploying in Colombia, which is bringing very good results. Also, Gustavo mentioned the Pozzolan dryer in Honduras, which will improve not only our CO2 emissions, but also the profitability of our operations. In the Dominican Republic, we are in the process of building a pre-grinding station for our grinding station in the Dominican Republic. That will be important, I mean, to continue improving the profitability of that business as well. After the target that we set for ourself for 2024 midterm, our target is to at least go to 25% in our margins. We see that it is completely feasible. Okay. Thank you so much, guys. Next question comes from Simón Londoño from Bancolombia. Hey, guys. Can you listen me? Yes, we can, Simón. Yeah. Okay. Thanks. Everyone, thank you for the presentation. I have two questions. The first one is, how do you expect cement demand to behave going forward? The second one is, could you give us some indication of cement production and your prospects for the housing and construction sectors in Colombia? Thank you for your question, Simón. As Carlos mentioned, the industry in Colombia has been, demand has been decreasing close to 6.5% so far during the year. We don't foresee a significant change in the rest of 2024. I mean, the reality is that, housing sales during the last 18-month term were very low. They have started to pick up again, which is a good sign. Interest rates are going down as well. I mean, mortgage rate is now 10%, which is a very good level for the Colombian market. For 2025 and 2026, we see an uptick in demand, but we are not expecting any different in Colombia for 2025. The other good news is that the local governments are executing in a good way infrastructure and housing projects, so it will help demand going forward. For 2024, we don't expect any significant change. Most likely the industry will end up decreasing between 4%-6% overall. In Central America and the Caribbean, we foresee a stable demand, probably a small growth, and we see the same scenario for 2025. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Simón, and thank you, Juan. We have no more questions. Thank you so much for connecting to our quarterly results call. We are fully confident of the progress of our company in this year and looking forward to continue improving our results and generating value for our shareholders, and we look forward to connecting again for the result of the third quarter of the year. Have a great day.