Welcome to Ecopetrol's Earnings Conference Call, in which we will discuss the main financial and operational results for the third quarter 2021. All lines have been muted. There will be a Q&A session at the end of the presentation. Before we begin, it is important to mention that the comments in this call by Ecopetrol senior management include projections of the company's future performance. These projections do not constitute any commitment as to future results, nor do they take into account risks or uncertainties that could materialize. As a result, Ecopetrol assumes no responsibility in the event that future results are different from the projections shared in this conference call. The call will be led by Mr. Felipe Bayón, CEO of Ecopetrol, Alberto Consuegra, COO, and Jaime Caballero, CFO. Thank you for your attention. Mr. Bayón, you may begin your conference.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. During this quarter, we continued to deliver record results. As of September, we are now consolidating Interconexión Eléctrica S.A., ISA's financial statement. We generated revenues of COP 23.3 trillion, an EBITDA of COP 10.4 trillion, and net income of COP 3.8 trillion. These results highlight our successful commercial strategy, which has allowed us to capture the favorable conditions of international crude oil prices. We achieved important progress in our strategic agenda with the accomplishment of milestones such as the following. The closing of ISA's acquisition and the first consolidation of its financial results into the results of the Ecopetrol Group, materializing this transformational step in our energy transition and decarbonization program.
Our first liability management transaction for $2 billion through the issuance of 10-year notes and 30-year bonds to partially prepay the loan disbursed to finance ISA's acquisition. The authorization granted by the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia to subscribe the program for the issuance and placement of common stocks, enabling Ecopetrol during five years to execute simultaneous issuance within the local and international markets, providing flexibility and opportunity in our capital structure strategy. Now, more than 86% of our employees have completed their immunization against COVID-19. Let's move on to the next slide. With the acquisition of the controlling stake in ISA, the Ecopetrol Group turns into a leading company in the energy sector of the region, participating across the hydrocarbon value chain, energy transmission, renewable energy, self-generation, and infrastructure.
After the closing of the transaction, our efforts have been focused on ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements related with accounting consolidation, reporting, and financial planning. We have made progress in matters regarding corporate governance, such as the election of ISA's new board of directors following its AGM held on October 22. The new composition of the board will allow Ecopetrol to exercise as controlling party over the company. Also, I would like to highlight that for market reporting purposes, ISA's financial results are now incorporated as a new business line in addition to the existing business segments. ISA will maintain value promise and independence, as we have done with the rest of our subsidiaries. ISA will bring to the table experience and knowledge that will boost new growth opportunities. We are progressing a gradual integration process led by the Transition Management Office, a multidisciplinary team from both companies.
This process involves mutual and detailed knowledge between both companies, understanding of both business models, and the construction of a shared vision. After having consolidated an orderly transition, we'll pursue opportunities that allow accelerating the capture of value from our investments. We see potential synergies in opportunities such as energy and fuel storage, development of new and additional renewable energy projects, generation and commercialization of energy in other countries, and growth opportunities in the hydrocarbon business in geographies where ISA already operates. I will now pass on the floor to Alberto Consuegra, who will elaborate on the main operating results for this quarter.
Thank you, Felipe. I will start by highlighting the discovery of hydrocarbons after drilling the exploratory well Liria YW-12, which confirmed the presence of gas and 49-degree API light oil in a new structure near the Cupiagua field, a milestone that sets the company's exploratory reactivation in Piedemonte, where Ecopetrol is the operator. We also highlight the commerciality of Boranda and Flamencos well discoveries, which are part of the near-field exploration strategy, which seeks production and reserves incorporation in the short term. Discoveries are located in Santander Department and have produced about 94,000 bbl of crude oil for Ecopetrol's share during the testing stage between January and September of the current year. We continue our international exploratory strategy.
During the 17th round of the Brazilian Oil and Gas Agency, the consortium between Ecopetrol Brazil and Shell acquired the SM-1709 block located in the Santos Basin, expanding the portfolio among highest potential areas with competitive breakeven close to $40 per barrel. Let's move on to the next slide, please. The quarterly production was 683,600 bbl of oil equivalent per day, 22,700 more than the volume achieved in the second quarter. Despite achieving the production stabilization of the fields affected by blockages and also increasing gas sales, milestones of the plan previously announced, there were two climate events during the quarter that limited an additional recovery in the growth of our production.
Abroad, the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico caused the closure of wells, and in Colombia, the rainy season caused landslides which affected the Promoriente gas pipeline, as well as the flooding of the Caricare field, causing its temporary closure for 20 days. Other weather impacts were related to increasing power outages. These events impacted production by around 10,000 bbl of oil equivalent per day. For the fourth quarter, we expect a production around 700,000 bbl of oil equivalent per day, mainly leveraged in the drilling of between 110 and 130 wells, the reactivation of the Promoriente gas pipeline, and the continuity of the operation of the Nare assets, which we received on November 4, after ending the association contract adding an average of 7,500 bbl of oil equivalent per day.
However, some risks associated with climate and public order issues remain and could affect production levels. Gas and LPG contributed 21% to total production, highlighting the signing of the Santiago de las Atalayas gas exploration and production agreement with the National Hydrocarbons Agency, which allowed the beginning of pre-drilling activities in two new wells in the Piedemonte area. Given the effects on gas production due to maintenance and climatic events, a commercial strategy was developed to guarantee gas supply nationwide, along with the Ministry of Mines and Energy and market agents through the signing of contingency contracts. On the social front, new gas and LPG connections have been made, allowing near 5,000 new families from Strata 1 and 2 to have this service and improve their quality of life between January and September. Let's move on to the next slide, please.
2021 has been a challenging year in terms of production due to all the factors that we have revealed throughout the year, which have mainly affected the basic curve. Resuming activity on our wells generated higher levels of water versus oil content with a gradual stabilization. The pandemic and public order situations affected our projects in terms of supply chain, delivery deadlines, and execution. This has been partially offset by the implementation of initiatives such as anticipation of 2022 work fronts and strengthening of our commercial gas strategy, with which we expect to restore our growth path. Given all the above, projected production levels for 2021 would be around 680,000 bbl of oil equivalent per day. Let's move on to the next slide, please.
On unconventionals, we highlight that on July 8, the first territorial dialogue was held for the Platero Comprehensive Research Pilot Project, and on October 29, an environmental impact study was filed requesting approval of the license for the drilling of Kalé. In parallel, progress is being made in the documentation of Platero's environmental study in synergy with what has been filed for Kalé. In August, a public survey was carried out by the National Consulting Center in the area of influence of the pilots, evidencing a positive change in perception among communities regarding the industry and the unconventional pilots, Ecopetrol being the oil company that generates the most confidence.
In September, Ecopetrol started the operation of a mobile environmental laboratory for the Magdalena Medio region so that communities have a better knowledge of the environmental variables present in their surroundings and that will allow, once the pilot starts, to monitor their behavior. Abroad, Permian reached a gross production level for Ecopetrol of 24,400 bbl of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter, evidencing the ramp-up of unconventional with a cumulative EBITDA margin of 83%. Let's move on to the next slide, please. The transported volume of refined products increased 63,000 bbl per day compared to the third quarter of 2020, thanks to the recovery of local demand, mainly the Galán-Sebastopol, by supplying the large consumption areas of the country.
On the other hand, the volume of crude oil transported decreased by 30,000 bbl per day compared to the same quarter of last year as a result of lower production driven by the previously mentioned causes. In order to secure the evacuation of the Caño Limón field, 11 reversal cycles of the Bicentenario pipeline were carried out. Finally, I want to mention that the conciliation agreement between Frontera, Cenit and Bicentenario was approved by the Administrative Tribunal of Cundinamarca to solve the existing disputes regarding the transportation of crude oil in Colombia. As a result of the conciliation, Frontera will recognize to Cenit and Bicentenario the outstanding obligations under their agreements as of December 31, 2019.
Frontera will transfer to Cenit its 43.03% interest in Bicentenario and will transfer to Bicentenario the pending dividends, the funds deposited in a trust as guarantee for one of the disputes, the advance payments from prior years under the Bicentenario pipeline linefill that they have. As part of the agreement, Frontera will recognize to Bicentenario a portion of Bicentenario syndicated loan in the amount of COP 438 billion. Additionally, Cenit and Bicentenario signed new ship- or- pay agreements with Frontera, allowing them to receive additional revenues for the payment of obligations included in the conciliation for a value of up to $92 million, subject to adjustment as per the value of the linefill.
Likewise, ODL, a Cenit subsidiary, obtained execution with Frontera of a new ship- or- pay agreement, which shall allow ODL to receive additional income up to $55.5 million. The financial impacts of the transaction correspond to the total recovery of outstanding debt as of December 31, 2019, for a value of COP 729 billion. The one-time impact on EBITDA will be approximately COP 700 billion, which will be reflected in the figures for the fourth quarter of this year. Additionally, financial revenues for approximately COP 41 billion will be received due to the effect of default interest and returns on trust funds. Let's move on to the next slide, please.
We achieved an accumulated EBITDA record result as of September of COP 2.35 trillion, thanks to selling of inventories and benefit from market prices at Barrancabermeja Refinery, Esenttia's commercial strategies, and an increase in natural gas sales, which contribute to mitigate the impacts derived from operational challenges and keeping the cash cost of the segment under control. Additionally, we are pleased to inform that we achieved the delivery of gasoline at 50 parts per million contemplated by regulation for January 2022. The integrated gross margin of the refineries remain at pre-pandemic levels despite having a more expensive diet because the recovery of Brent price, a challenging scenario for the realization of valuable products, especially in the Cartagena Refinery due to the discount on export diesel, and the scheduled maintenance of the petrochemical train and the alkylation unit at the Barrancabermeja Refinery.
The consolidated throughput in September was above 365,000 bbl per day, exceeding the throughput restrictions on the refineries affected by public order events at Caño Limón-Coveñas oil pipeline, an electrical contingency presented in August, and corrective maintenance planned in the catalytic cracking unit at Cartagena's Refinery. These events had an EBITDA impact of COP 121 billion. A shutdown plan is being implemented with the purpose of improving the reliability of the refineries, which will take the operational availability from 92.5% in 2019 to 94.2% in 2021, and up to international reference levels above the 96% in 2024. Other scheduled maintenance for the flare in plants one and two in Esenttia will be occurring. Let's move on to the next slide, please.
At the end of third quarter, we have delivered efficiencies close to COP 1.8 trillion, highlighting a reduction of the dilution factor, energy efficiency, and savings obtained with the renewable energies. The total unit cost accrued to September increased $10.3 per barrel as compared to the same period in 2020, mainly due to higher purchase and import costs associated with higher Brent prices. On the other hand, the cumulative lifting cost to September increased $0.87 per barrel as compared to the same period in 2020, reaching $8 per barrel. Such an increase is due to greater numbers of well interventions, the execution of process safety and integrity work included in the plan, as well as the increase in the cost of oil services due to industry inflation.
By the end of the year, we expect to have a lifting cost in the order of $8.5 per barrel. The cost per barrel transported showed a slight decrease as compared to the same period in 2020, reaching $2.9 per barrel, thanks to the control of variable costs given the lower volumes transported. The refining cash cost accumulated to September showed a downward trend as compared to previous years, correlated to gas composition and its supply chain. I will open the floor to Jaime Caballero, who will talk to you about the main financial results of the Ecopetrol Group.
Thanks, Alberto. During the nine months ended in September 2021, Ecopetrol's net income reached COP 10.6 trillion, exceeding more than nine times the result obtained during the same period of the previous year. This increase is mainly explained by a higher EBITDA generation of COP 15.5 trillion, where the following factors stand out. A positive net effect of COP 13 trillion due to realization prices, higher crude oil spreads, and foreign exchange increase for purchases and sales. A positive valuation of inventories for COP 4.2 trillion related to market prices and increase in shipments in transit to India and the U.S. given the new DAP commercial strategy. The consolidation of 100% of ISA's EBITDA for COP 0.7 trillion, corresponding to one month of operation after closing the acquisition.
The above was partially offset by lower volume of purchases and sales for COP 1.5 trillion, affected by schedule and corrective maintenance activities within the refineries. Higher operating activity costs for COP 0.6 trillion, mainly associated to maintenance and higher materials consumption as a result of the economic reactivation. Other effects in the EBITDA for COP 0.4 trillion, mainly related to the increase in exploratory expenses, recognition of public work provisions, and environmental provisions, among other aspects. Likewise, the year-to-date includes the impact of three non-operational items. The non-recurring positive effect of COP 0.4 trillion recognized in January for the divestment of Savia Perú. A negative variation from other non-cash items for COP 1.8 trillion, including foreign exchange effect, depreciation, taxes, financial expenses, and ISA's non-controlling interest for COP 0.7 trillion and COP 1 trillion in other subsidiaries.
An increase in income tax provision as a result of higher financial results and related to deferred tax restatement for COP 36 billion after implementing the new rate established by the tax reform in Colombia from 30% to 35%. These results show a clear continuity of the favorable trend in the company's financial results. Please turn to the next slide to see ISA's main financial results. For the third quarter and the nine months ended on September 2021, ISA's EBITDA continues its growth trend, increasing 5.8% and 5.2% respectively as compared to the same periods in 2020.
Net income decreased, affected by non-recurring events such as costs associated to a liability management transaction at Interchile, which also included the unwind of debt hedging for a total of COP 273 billion, and a higher deferred tax expense of COP 146 billion due to the application of the rates from the tax reform in Colombia. In the absence of these impacts, ISA's net income for the quarter would have been COP 541 billion, and COP 1.6 trillion year- to- date. ISA's consolidation in the Ecopetrol Group is carried out through a business combination of controlled businesses as defined in IFRS 3. A new segment has been established to incorporate ISA's standalone results starting September and the expenses related to the debt raised to complete the acquisition.
ISA's contribution is material for the Ecopetrol Group, and it will be progressively incorporated over the next accounting period. When normalizing the consolidation for the nine months ending September, ISA's contribution to the EBITDA would have been COP 5.3 trillion, representing about 19% of the total. The net income contribution would have been COP 0.6 trillion and COP 0.8 trillion excluding the non-recurring events mentioned above. After consolidation, assets and liabilities of the Ecopetrol Group increased by COP 82 trillion and COP 55 trillion respectively. Total equity increased by COP 27 trillion, reflecting the concept of non-controlling interest associated to ISA. The values of assets, liabilities, and non-controlling interest as well as goodwill are preliminary and will be updated to final amounts by the end of the year. Please turn to the next slide to see the main financial KPIs.
Cumulative financial indicators year to date reaffirm Ecopetrol's ability to capture the favorable price environment, as well as the initial benefits from ISA after consolidating the first month of its operations since the acquisition. In the oil and gas business, it's worth to highlight the EBITDA per barrel that reached record levels of $40.2 per barrel and quarterly results of $40.1 per barrel. These levels compare very favorably with other industry peers. Net income breakeven continues to improve as compared to the end of 2020 and the same period of the previous year, reaching $34.8 per barrel, thanks to the recovery of product spreads and higher throughput in the refineries. Regarding ISA's results, it is worth to highlight the EBITDA margin excluding construction that was 77.7%, aligned with 2020.
ISA's return on equity for the quarter was affected by the liability management transaction effect that did not impact the group results due to the extent that it corresponds to an event prior to acquisition and therefore it was registered as equity. Year to date, EBITDA margin for the Ecopetrol Group was 46.7%, among the highest levels historically, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The leverage ratio of the Ecopetrol Group is similar to 2020 levels when incorporating ISA's debt and one-month EBITDA. Normalizing ISA's EBITDA for the last 12 months, the indicator would have been 2.4x . Please turn to the following slide to see the main highlights of the commercial strategy and its contribution to the financial results. The commercial strategy has been fundamental to the successful capture of value in the current environment.
The stable quality of our blends, supplier reliability, and contractual flexibility are fundamental to the corporate strategy. As of September 2021, the realization price of our crude oil basket increased from representing 76% to 94% as compared to the average Brent price for the same period in 2020. It is worth highlighting the increase in barrels delivered to destinations such as South Korea, India, Brunei, Sweden, and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, going from 17% in 3Q 2020 to 37.5% in 3Q 2021 in volume-weighted terms. This strategy has allowed a higher commercial margin as compared to shipments sold and delivered at the Coveñas port.
Likewise, we continued to maximize the value of crude oil and products through asset-backed trading strategies with an incremental benefit of $47 million by the end of September, almost twice the amount achieved during full year 2020. We estimate that so far this year, the commercial effort has contributed around $339 million, equivalent to $1.19 per barrel, to the Ecopetrol Group's EBITDA as a result of export strategies, purchase of new crudes from the refineries, benefits from using our crudes, and savings from energy efficiencies, among others. Sales of gas and LPG, a key element of the strategy, contributed almost $15 per barrel to the EBITDA, proving the relevance of this product within the company's results. Let's turn to the next slide, please.
Organic investment as of end 3Q amounted to nearly $2.2 billion, showing an important recovery versus the previous year, despite global supply chain disruptions, public unrest in certain areas of our operation, and longer regulatory permitting lead times. The upstream segment accounted for 77% of total organic CapEx, with a focus on increasing production and reserves, while 23% went to the midstream, downstream, and corporate segments. By the end of the year, we expect to invest between $3.3 billion and $3.5 billion. CapEx execution for the fourth quarter will be focused on an increase in drilling rigs directly operated by Ecopetrol, securing the arrival of materials with supply delays, boosting activity in Permian, Ecopetrol America, and Hocol, and an increase in activity in the refineries.
As for ISA's CapEx, its cumulative execution as of September was $946 million, mainly allocated to the progress of the construction of energy transmission projects in the countries where the company operates. ISA estimates a year-end execution of circa $1.2 billion. Please turn to the next slide to review the company's cash flow. Cash balance for the third quarter was COP 13.1 trillion, with the operating cash flow adding COP 11.5 trillion. ISA contributed COP 6 trillion to the cash balance and COP 0.5 trillion to the operating cash flow, respectively. The investment component for the year presented an outflow of COP 8.8 trillion related to CapEx. The financing component, excluding ISA acquisition, registered an outflow of COP 2.8 trillion for principal and interest payments.
During 2021, dividends for COP 1.4 trillion have been paid to Ecopetrol shareholders and to non-controlling shareholders of its subsidiaries. Final cash balance considers cash and cash equivalents for COP 10.1 trillion and a short-term investment portfolio of COP 3 trillion. The Ecopetrol Group cash composition is 64% dollar-based and 36% Colombian peso-based. This cash balance does not include the account receivable from the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund, the FEPC, for its Spanish acronym, which at the end of 3Q amounts to COP 7.2 trillion. It is worth mentioning that the recently approved General B udget of the Republic of Colombia includes a specific provision of COP 2.7 trillion for the recognition of this item, as well as additional budgetary mechanisms to address the remaining amounts. Please turn to the next slide.
Finally, we would like to highlight the completion of our first external liability management transaction for $2 billion, by which we partially refinance the $3.7 billion loan associated with the ISA acquisition. This transaction optimizes the debt maturity profile of the Ecopetrol Group with market rates at historically low levels since 2014. The transaction had a robust demand from around 270 investors from different geographies globally, with individual bids of up to $470 million, evidencing the confidence in Ecopetrol's financial strength. This transaction, in addition to the approval of the program to issue common stock in Colombia by the Superintendency of Finance, provides flexibility and access to different sources of debt and equity financing with the objective to continue optimizing the maturity profile and to fund the energy transition strategy of the company.
Now I hand over to the CEO for closing remarks.
Thank you, Jaime. We continue to move forward on each of the pillars of our TESG strategy. On the environmental side, we particularly highlight achievements in our renewable energy projects. With the entry into operation of the San Fernando solar farm that is located in the Meta department, we have now an additional installed capacity of 61 MW that will supply part of the energy demand for both Ecopetrol and Cenit operations. It will also help us to avoid emissions for more than 508,000 tons of CO₂ equivalent during the next 15 years and will contribute to the group's decarbonization plan. All this in addition to over 21,000 tons of CO₂ emissions that have already been avoided by the Castilla solar farm in its first two years of operation since October 2019.
During such period, we have also saved with the Castilla solar farm $2 million in operational costs. With San Fernando, the group's current capacity on renewable energy stands at 112 MW. Likewise, Ecopetrol also inaugurated the gas-based self-generation plant in Chichimene that will avoid emissions of 44,000 tons of CO₂ each year and will supply part of the energy required by the Chichimene, Apiay, CPO-09, and Castilla fields, all located in the Meta department. In terms of hydrogen, we highlight the active participation of Ecopetrol as one of the key players in the construction of Colombia's hydrogen roadmap aimed at developing this energy source for the country.
We recently joined the group of the Task Force on Nature-Related Financial Disclosures, TNFD, to help develop a reporting framework for nature-related risks and opportunities, as well as mitigating negative impacts on the environment. Last week, we participated in COP26 in Glasgow as one of the organizations representing Colombia. In addition to discussing actions that allow to mitigate climate change impact, we met with different leading organizations to explore potential alliances in the development of several opportunities on our road to net zero and energy transition roadmaps. Regarding technology, I wanna highlight the capture of some $36 million year-to-date of benefits from our digital transformation agenda. Also, the award of the Sustainable Development Goals good practices led by the UN Global Compact to our open innovation program, 100x100.
In the social dimension, Ecopetrol achieved the Equipares Silver Seal, a certification with a 98.47% score, which gives us now five companies in the group that have favorable processes for gender equality. Let's move on now to the conclusions. During the quarter, we achieved significant progress towards energy transition, such as the closing of the ISA acquisition, setting a milestone in the history of the country and for both companies, providing the opportunity to consolidate the Ecopetrol Group as a new leading energy company with greater capacity to continue generating sustainable value. We continue delivering strong financial results to our shareholders and our groups of interest. We will keep consolidating our integrated strategy, maintaining the focus on the core business while moving forward in the pillars of energy transition. Thanks to everyone for participating today in the call.
Now I will open up for the Q&A session.
Thank you. At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, simply press star and then one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the pound key. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. We have a question from Guilherme Levy from Morgan Stanley.
Hello, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. I have two questions. The first one is the lifting costs. So I just wanted to understand your expectation for this line going forward, when we consider both recovering production and higher oil prices that are expected to remain into the next quarters. If we should continue to expect lifting costs close to the $8 per BOE range, and if the company is already seeing some level of industry cost inflation. Then the second question is on the production expectations for 2022. I just wanted to pick your brain and try to understand what sort of projects can be anticipated at the current oil price environment.
Also how much the shale JV in the U.S. could contribute to the group in this strong oil price environment. Thank you very much.
Guilherme, thanks, and thanks for participating today in the conference call. I'll give you some context, and then I'll ask Alberto to provide more detail, first around the lifting costs and then around the production. The first thing around lifting costs. If you look at where we ended up on 3Q, around $8 per barrel, we're signaling that the year should end up in around, or at around $8.5 per barrel. For next year, the range should be around $9.5-$10 per barrel. That's sort of the expectation. Clearly we see there will be an increment or an increase in terms of the lifting cost.
Alberto will provide detail around levels of activity and also some of the pressures we're seeing from some of the first increases in terms of sector inflation, particularly around some materials and the like. He'll talk about that. In terms of production, I'll share my view with you, and then, again, Alberto will provide some detail. If you look at what has happened this year, we started at 1Q at 676. We went down to 661 in 2Q and up to 684 in 3Q. There's a recovery.
We're seeing recovery from some of the issues, operational issues that we had in 2Q, especially with the production of water and some other issues and some of the blockages and stoppages in civil unrest in the country. We expect that in 4Q, we will be at around 700,000 bbl. The way I would describe it is that we're seeing a recovery. There is a clear path of recovery, but it's taking longer than what we had anticipated. So that's. I think that's message number one. We're currently working on the numbers for 2022. We don't have a number yet in terms of where we expect to land the range for production. In terms of the Permian, this year, we have 91 wells in production.
We're above 50,000 bbl equivalent of production. We're very pleased with the four rigs operating in the Permian. Directionally, next year, we're going from some 90 wells to 110 wells roughly in a year in terms of drilling. There will be an increase in number of rigs. We will keep at least the four rigs running next year. We are in conversations with our partner as we look at budgets, as we look at activity in terms of should we keep the four rigs, should we actually increase a bit more. We're very, very pleased with the Permian, how it's behaving in terms of its contribution, not only in terms of barrels, but in terms of EBITDA as well. Alberto, why don't we go into more detail around both the lifting costs and production?
Good morning, and thanks for your question. As Felipe mentioned that we are seeing an increase in the lifting costs for the fourth quarter. By year-end, we should be having a you know, an average of $8.5+ per barrel. That will mean that for the post year quarters of 2021, we will experience an increasing cost mainly derived from IFT. We are gonna have a lot of well interventions, maybe around 160. In addition to that, work associated with the integrity of our lines. As you mentioned, we are experiencing the impact of industry inflation. That's very much reflected worldwide because of restrictions in raw materials that are now scarce, but also we are seeing higher prices, for example, in steel.
We're talking about an increase in steel and the cost of steel of 30%-40% compared to prior years. In addition to that, copper, aluminum also affected, and that brings a delay in all the supply chain, especially the parts of equipment and material. Also we are experiencing an increase in the cost of well service. This is to say that for 2022 and beyond, we are currently working on our optimization plan to understand how we can cope that industry inflation. In terms of guidance, we should be looking at a lifting cost of $9.5-$10 per barrel per day for 2020 and beyond. Also, lifting cost indicator will depend in our success of increasing production volumes.
In terms of what we should expect in production, if you will, we're working on that, on a plan of understanding the different variables for 2022. The activity is gonna be there. What we need to understand is that much of the activity in our mature fields is about recovery, recovering the production that we lose from the normal decline of the base first. That's very important. That means that about 15%-17% of our production needs to be replaced year-on-year. In addition to that, we are trying to focus our projects on where we have bottlenecks in terms of affiliates. A lot of activity will be focused in increasing our capacity to treat water in the mature fields.
If we have that, then we are gonna be able to see production coming into stream. That's kind of the scenario that we see, still too early to anticipate a range, but working on the different variables and also understanding the impact of this high inflation that also represents a delay in all the supply chain. We will share more information with you at the end of the year.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Anne Milne from Bank of America.
Good morning. Thank you very much for the call, and congratulations on the ISA consolidation. My questions are a little similar to the last one, and I think you answered some of them, but I wanted to know what the main areas of cost inflation are. I think you mentioned steel and aluminum. Are there other areas there as well? And is there any way that you can hedge them or enter into long-term contracts, maybe electricity, maybe freight or some other ones? Then my second question is also on the 2022 outlook. I understand you're not prepared to discuss production, but do you have a range of CapEx for next year? I think you said it would be higher.
Do you have any plans on what your debt and leverage levels would be one year from now at the end of 2022? Thank you very much.
Thanks, Anne. I'll start with the second one in terms of CapEx. Compared to this year, we've signaled that there will be an increase, and we haven't finalized the numbers. But I can give you directionally the following information that organic CapEx for Ecopetrol, not including ISA, it will be in the $4 billion-$5 billion range. That would be U.S. dollars. It's an increase and obviously, as we were just discussing and Alberto was mentioning, that exercise of landing and defining the CapEx is incorporating our views on some of the impacts that we've discussed on the supply chain and the commodities price increases. That's the second question. In terms of the first one, I'll provide a bit more color.
Alberto has already described where we see or where we envisage for our lifting costs to move going forward. Again, from ending this year in $8.50 per barrel to somewhere in the range of $9.50-$10 per barrel. The first point is that we do see there will be an impact. In things like electricity, for example, Carlos, we're sharing that roughly 2/3s of our electricity, the electricity that we use on a daily basis, it comes from our self or autogeneración in Spanish, self-power generation. We generate that power for ourselves, and we generate it mainly with things like gas. We have, I would say, some, but not total, some independence from prices outside.
I want to share with you that one thing that we've seen that has worked very well in our favor is the moving to renewables. For example, if you take the Castilla solar park that we started operations two years ago, in two years we've saved roughly $2 million in operating costs. Compared to the prices on the grid, these prices could be between 1/3 to 1/4 of the prices that we will see if we generated the same mix or 50% of the prices that we buy from the grid, national grid. Electricity, as you well point out, very important in terms of building up our costs, and it's something that we'll continue to work on price, and I'll use an example.
When we are exporting, and you may have seen from the report that more and more we're using the DAP mechanism, so we're actually delivering our crudes at the refineries, at the ports. Last quarter, 37% of our exports were delivered through DAP. We have the ability to hedge at a tactical level the price for these crudes. We're already taking into account that. I would like to highlight something else. Clearly there will be an impact in terms of the costs of material and indirectly on services, you know, because sector inflation and some of the service providers will come back knocking on our door and wanting for us to basically accept the pass-through of some of those costs.
The other important point is the security of supply. In that sense, we do have long-term agreements and alliances with many providers. For example, a lot of our, or most, if not all of our drilling material, you know, pipelines and everything else, you know, the casings and the tubings and the likes, most of them are actually built in country. There will be an impact in terms of costs, as Alberto was mentioning, from the material costs. Eventually there could be an impact in terms of timings, you know, because some of these, there could be some delays. Those are some of the things that we're working on. The other thing that I think is very important is, some 18 months ago, we took the decision to go through zero-based budgeting in the company.
I think that has allowed us to, I mean, not build year-on-year and just marginally increase our costs, but have a very deep understanding of how our costs are basically built up. That helps us in terms of optimizing demand. How do we manage our inventories? How do we look at the standardization, you know, and modular approach to some of the things, standard facilities? Just wanted to provide some color and some context around some of the things we're looking around cost. Alberto, Jaime, I don't know if you guys wanna add something else.
It's. I just would add as an example of what we're doing in terms of managing distribution costs.
I mean, we understand the pressures, but also we understand that we also have solutions. For example, we can increase the viscosity in all of our pipelines to manage the crude input. We are also implementing the projects, the co-dilution projects, which is increasing the LPG needs in our products. That's gonna be great because that's gonna represent a reduction, an important reduction in terms of the naphtha that we buy, that we purchase, abroad. That's kind of an example in which, for example, the dilution factor was around $15 per barrel. Now it's gonna be in the ranges of $13-$14 per barrel. You are seeing the reduction in that sense.
Great.
Felipe, on my end, I just wanna make a quick note and it's with regards to ISA. It's important to highlight that ISA's business model is fundamentally indexed to inflation. Any inflation that you have in the sector is actually not translating into loss of revenue and loss of margin. That's quite important to highlight. There's no deterioration in the ISA business model associated to the industry dynamics.
Very important. Thanks. Juan Diego.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matheus Enfeldt from UBS.
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. If we could start a bit with the downstream, looking particularly at margins. The company saw some quote, unquote, "pressure" mainly in dollar terms, particularly in the Cartagena refinery. We were just trying to understand a bit how much of that is a one-off and only in this quarter or we should expect a quick rebound or if it's something that should linger a bit into 2022. Then my second question is on the ISA acquisition. If you could provide a bit of the pathway for integration of the companies moving forward now that you have begun to consolidate results. What milestones or KPIs the market could be looking for, particularly into potential synergies between both of the businesses?
Just for you to elaborate a bit on that as well, if you're seeing that potential investments in energy and electricity should go focused mainly from ISA or if Ecopetrol will also continue to invest this in the core business? Thank you.
Thanks, Matheus. I'll start with ISA, and then I'll hand over to Walter to talk about the downstream. In terms of ISA, wanna provide a bit of context. We have something called the TMO, the Transition Management Office. It basically comprised of some 80 people, roughly half and half from each organizations, has been working for some months now. For the last 2.5 months since we closed the deal on the August 20th, a dedicated team has been focused on premises, mainly, working on some 10-12 streams of work, mainly. There's different things, you know, and we talk about the legal, regulatory, the financial consolidation. We're working now on things like budget and finance planning, sorry, planning purposes.
There is a lot of work and that's actually going quite well in terms of Jaime and myself joining the board. That's already happened. I just wanted to provide sort of the high-level context in terms of where we are. Things that we're looking at, and there is some very tactical, pragmatical things that we're looking at. For example, in a lot of the things in which we operate, for example, on a digital, we have a lot of synergies and opportunities because we use the same providers, you know? We can share some of the conditions and some of the favorable conditions that Ecopetrol has on contracting some of the services. Those can be passed through to ISA.
That's low hanging fruit, very early on, those things have identified. There's some ongoing work between the teams around things like innovation and technology, very important. Things like, and you mentioned power generation. In Colombia, by the current existing regulation, since we are in transmission, we would not be allowed to enter the power generation market to sell to third parties. That's the current, sort of regulatory framework in Colombia. Having said that, there's opportunities in the other countries where we now have a presence. That's point number one. In terms of things like additional renewable power generation projects from renewable sources, there's a lot of opportunity, both in country and outside.
In terms of energy storage, which is fundamental as we think about the transition and sort of ensuring that there's reliability in terms of the provision of electricity, you know, to the consumers. Even in things like hydrogen and things like low- emission energy. The teams are actually working on that. We're very enthusiastic, I would say, in terms of the new opportunities, and there's a lot of things that are coming up from those conversations. What we'd like to do, Matheus, is as soon as we're progressing and advancing, we'll continue to communicate, you know, in terms of where we are, how we've landed some of those opportunities.
I would end up saying here before handing over to Walter is that I don't think we fully understand the potential that we can unlock, you know, in terms of the transaction that we've done and the opportunities going forward. Walter, why don't we move into the downstream to talk a little bit more about the margins and what we see going forward?
Thank you, Felipe. Thank you, Matthew, for your question on the downstream business. I will start mentioning that as you saw on the slide and it was covered by Alberto that as of September we have accumulated a record EBITDA of COP 2.3 billion for the segment. This is mainly coming from excellent results in the second quarter. Regarding the third quarter, important to mention that we started around July and August planned activities at the Barrancabermeja Refinery, mainly in the isomerization unit and the petrochemical business. Those activities at Barranca will continue. Those have already been completed although at the Barrancabermeja we are progressing right now major maintenance on one of the crude units and on the FCC.
In the case of Cartagena, the results of the third quarter were impacted by a blackout event that we had in August and also maintenance that we needed to do at the FCC unit in August and finish in the middle of September. At the Cartagena Refinery, those were one-time events, both of them. You know, the refinery we are recovered from those events and is running close to full rate right now. At the Cartagena Refinery, we are projecting the fourth quarter. We are not projecting to have planned turnarounds or big maintenance at the Cartagena Refinery in the fourth quarter. We see Cartagena for the fourth quarter coming up in terms of margins.
At the Barrancabermeja, as I mentioned, we are executing the planned turnaround for the crude unit of the FCC. Margins for Barrancabermeja are planned to be steady for the fourth quarter and very similar to the third quarter. Overall, for the refining, we are projecting to finish 2021 regarding a crude rate. We have told you that we are planning to be on the 345-365 kbpd, and we are projecting to be on the high side of that range. Regarding margins for our projection for 2021, we are projecting to finish the year between both businesses, Cartagena and Barrancabermeja, on the upper side of the single digit, so close to $10 per barrel for 2021.
Regarding 2022, I would say that we see margins coming up, although I have to mention that during the first half of the year, we do have planned maintenance activities at both refineries at Barrancabermeja and Cartagena, and mainly in the first half of the year. In overall, we see margins, you know, there will be some ups and downs because that depends on what type of maintenance activities we do every month. But in overall, we see margins for 2022 on the, I would say, on the low side of the two-digit for the refining business.
I would like to mention that 2021 and 2022 are very heavy on turnaround activities or maintenance activities at both refineries because most of those activities were planned for 2020, but because of COVID-19 and pandemic, we need to move some of those maintenance from 2020 to 2021 and 2022. I hope, Matheus, I was clear and I was able to answer your question.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Vicente Falanga from Bradesco.
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. My first one is regarding Brazil. When do you expect the drilling of the first well there, and sort of what are the next key milestones? My second question is regarding unconventional. Do you feel that after we get the licenses for Kalé and Platero, that you know for other future potential areas these licenses could come out quicker? If I just may, sorry, a follow-up on the previous question. Do you still see risks of public order in the Caño Limón pipeline this quarter that could again affect the refineries or things are calmer there? Thank you.
Vicente, good morning, and thanks for the question. With regards to Brazil, what we are doing right now. In terms of exploration, we are on the planning phase to drill our second well in the Saturno block, which basically is what we call the Iacotus prospect. We expect to drill this well late in 2022 or early 2023. This will depend very much in our conversations with our partners, in that case, Shell and Chevron. Also, in terms of development, just to recognize that Gato do Mato is going well and that we have several milestones to complete in the next few months. The first one is the award of the FPSO, a floating production storage and offloading facility.
Initiate fabrication of the FPSO. Also award the subsea facilities contract. Depending on the advancement and the progress of those activities, we are shooting for an early start at the end of 2025, early 2026.
That's the program. If we see opportunities to drill additional wells, that will be depending very much on decisions taken with our partners. Those are times where we are in Brazil, Vicente. With regards to 38, the concession. We're in the process, as we mentioned in our report, in the process of obtaining the licenses for Kalé and Platero. We already delivered the environmental assessment study for Kalé, and we are trying to do so for Platero. In terms of whether these will increase the potential of getting licenses for new areas, I will be very conservative. I think our focus should be in the two areas where we have at this moment the pilots.
Once we are successful in getting the licenses, but as well as doing the execution of the wells, doing the drilling of the wells, then we can foresee there are opportunities in other plays.
Alberto, I would probably just like to add, and before you come back to Caño Limón and the third question is. What we said, Vicente, with regards to the unconventional pilots in Colombia is that this is not about doing it quickly, it's about doing it well. In that sense, you saw some of the timelines that we produced in the report, we see ourselves drilling the wells in 2023. We're working to see if we can actually accelerate that rhythm. You know, can we bring that forward into 2022?
Bear in mind that after we have all the results and the data, there is an independent commission that will look at the results of the pilots and determine if the pilots were successful or not, in terms of achieving the objectives that were set up with the regulation to the pilot. We'll need to see what that means. Having said that, obviously, we've worked on identifying additional areas with potential and thinking about how can we take this to the next level in terms of becoming part of the operation that we do. You know, we now have a lot of expertise from the permits we use under our belts.
That's being brought home in terms of planning, ensuring that we can understand how to move to the next phase, which if I understand correctly, is sort of the question. Alberto, in terms of Caño Limón.
In terms of Caño Limón, we need to recognize that we have the pressure of social unrest and guerrilla activity in both the Catatumbo and the Arauca region. The risk is there. But we have the contingency means to manage the production impact. If the Caño Limón pipeline is affected by the social unrest, then we have the contingent route of the Bicentenario pipeline.
If this is working as has been working during the third quarter, where we have 11 reversal cycles, then we shouldn't expect major impact in terms of the loads for the refineries, particularly Barrancabermeja.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Frank McGann from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Okay. Thank you very much. Just, you know, maybe stepping back to a little bit bigger picture in terms of how you're seeing the CapEx potential in upstream. After the last four or five years, which you went from, you know, having a lot of, you know, opportunities and being very aggressive to, you know, pulling back as you know, rightfully so to restore the balance sheet and not get overly aggressive in terms of spending, given the less clear environment, especially, of course, over the last 18, 24 months. I'm just thinking, you know, wondering now how you're thinking about upstream. You've got, I would assume, a lot of kind of low-hanging fruit that you could potentially exploit.
I would think you could increase CapEx quite a bit and profitably so if you wanted to. I'm just wondering how big that portfolio is potentially, also one. Secondly, are you tempted to get more aggressive over the next couple of years given the very favorable environment and I think fairly short payback period that you have for a lot of those investments?
Thanks, Frank, great question. I think I'll provide you some views, and then Jaime can add up, and Alberto as well. The team can sort of basically complete the views. The way I would put it, I like your intro to the question in terms of us being explicitly very careful with the management of the balance sheet and the opportunities. If you look at how we've ramped up CapEx over the last few years from basically $2.2 billion in 2017 to $2.9 billion in 2018 to $3.5 billion in 2019, we'll be in that range this year.
I was answering a question earlier saying that we see ourselves in the $4 billion-$5 billion range, organic, excluding Ethan. Historically, 80%-85% of the CapEx has gone to the upstream. We're not going to abandon that. There will be an additional focus in terms of exploration, and this goes from looking at seismic that we already have and doing the reinterpretation of that seismic with new technology and new capabilities. That's point number one. I think the news that we shared with the market during the week with the Liria YW well, which is the discovery of a new field, show that sort of adjusting our view on exploration is paying off, and I think that's very important.
This year, we'll end up with some 400 wells in our portfolio that we drilled, development wells. We should probably see an increase in that, and that's the way you need to think about it. If you look at geographically, we have very good activity in the Permian, and it's paying off. It's not only providing molecules or barrels, but it's also producing good EBITDA, you know, and we'll be able to talk that when we close the year and the likes. A lot of focus in Colombia, but we do have focus in both the Permian and Alberto was just referring to Gato do Mato in Brazil. That will require some additional CapEx. Clearly, focus in Colombia, where EOR techniques, increasing recovery factors are fundamental.
We have to deal with 15%-17% decline, natural decline per year in our main fields. The good news, I think, tailwinds are helping. We've done a lot of work over the last four or five years in terms of efficiencies, in terms of becoming much better in terms of producing margins, you know, at the upstream level. So I think that's paying off. Having said that, we had a, I think, a good discussion earlier on about centralization and some of the things that we're doing. Again, things like zero-based budgeting and something called Performance Plus, which is an internal program to look at more efficiencies, I think can provide a lot of support in terms of how we see ourselves going forward. I think you've had lots of opportunities.
We have something called a taxonomy, so we know which each and every opportunity that we have in the pipeline ramps up. I'll stop here, we don't want to get crazy, you know, in terms of spending money just for the sake of spending money. We wanna stay very focused and disciplined in terms of how we deploy the CapEx in the operations. Jaime, do you wanna add something else? Or Alberto? Go ahead.
Thank you, Felipe. Frank, good to hear you. I'll give you some color and initially, I'm gonna give you some broad group numbers that provide context for the conversation, and then some directional numbers associated to the plan which we're working on. I think the biggest headline is that as we look to refresh the plan 2022-2024 in the context of a higher- price environment and in the context, of course, of the production lag that we've seen this year, clearly our strategic intent is to increase production, right? Directionally, what we wanna do with the upstream is to increase production.
The good news that the results of the portfolio analysis that we've been having over the last few months is one that indicates a stronger portfolio with more prospects, with more possibilities, and therefore, with more value, right? To give you an idea, you know, this year's plan compared to last year's plan speaks about maturing around 1.5 billion bbl of resources, of 3P resources, right? That's the extent of the total portfolio. Last, when we were looking at this number 8 months ago, it was more in the 1.1 kind of range. We've actually seen a bigger portfolio to work with.
The second thing that we're seeing is that in the context of the full agenda of Performance Plus and efficiencies and becoming more competitive and the like, we're also seeing improved ratings and therefore more value associated to the portfolio. Directionally, a portfolio that maybe a couple of years ago was worth, and I'm talking about the growth component of the portfolio, around $6 billion in NPV, it's now around $9 billion in NPV. Where I'm trying to go here is that there's value to be had, and we wanna take that value, obviously in a strategic way, like Pete mentioned, in a structured way, but there's value to be created.
When you look at the ramp up of activity that we expect to have this year, it's significant. We're talking about, you know, directionally around 540 development wells next year, around 600 workovers, around anywhere between 25-30 exploration wells and going back into seismic. This is, you know, the opportunities are there, and they're sufficiently mature. Let me give you a statistic here. All these numbers that I'm quoting, about 67% of the activity set is already in its third or fourth stage of maturing. There are things that are reasonably good to go, and it gives us confidence that we're gonna be able to execute them next year. Kind of that's where we're going.
When you look at that number that Felipe mentioned of between $4 billion-$5 billion of organic CapEx, I would say that upstream, as usual, will represent a big chunk of that. When we look at the next three years, I would expect upstream to be capturing probably anywhere between $10 billion-$12 billion of CapEx, upstream alone. That's where directionally we're heading. Obviously, this is all subject to some fine-tuning, and we're gonna have a more detailed conversation in February, but that's where our head is right now.
Thanks. I will just add that, when you look at our portfolio, and years back, our focus was the main and mature fields, heavy oil fields. Now in our plan, you'll see new areas emerging. For example, in terms of exploration, you'll see activity associated with the Colombian offshore, and also, a lot of focus in terms of the Piedemonte foothill , where we have the expectation of finding both light oil and gas. You'll see that diversification. When you look at other projects that are gonna be emerged, you'll see Caño Sur close to Rubiales, and then Akacias, which will be another focus in our portfolio. More diversification, I would say.
Thanks, Alberto. Thanks, Jaime.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Christian Audi from Santander.
Thank you. Hello, Felipe, Jaime. Hope you're well. I wanted to get your views on a couple of points. First, capital allocation and then on the return on capital employed. In terms of capital allocation, you've already touched on CapEx. I was wondering if you could also touch on deleveraging and dividend payments, how you prioritize those given the very strong results in cash flow generation that you're having. Also touch on the potential need for an equity offering, and whether that equity offering, if needed, would be more to supply Isa with capital to pursue inorganic growth, or would it be more driven to just strengthen the overall Ecopetrol financial position?
In terms of return on capital employed, which is an area where the company always stood out relative to your peers, with the addition of ISA that has great margins and great return on capital employed. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about where you see ROCE, maybe ex ISA going into 2022, please. Thank you.
Thank you, Christian. I hope you're doing well. Let's talk about capital allocation and road show. I'd first start with kind of what is our view of the world going forward in terms of price environment? Because it actually does set the stage a lot around how to think about some of the questions you're making, you know, capital allocation, deleveraging, dividends and the like. One of the things that we've seen is that fundamentals do support a more optimistic view around prices going forward. You might recall that in the plan that we're actually executing right now, our price assumption for this year was around $45 per barrel.
Next year, we were looking at $50 per barrel. That's something that we have been reflecting on and that we are gonna update in our plans going forward. The outlook in which we are planning ahead is one where next year is at $63 per barrel and 2023 and 2024 are at $60. These prices still, it's still conservative when you look at the current, you know, headline price. But we believe that it kind of positions us well in a place where we kind of retain our capital discipline, capital and cost discipline, whilst at the same time making sure that we don't leave opportunities on the table. The broader conversation around long-term price in this business, we still remain conservative.
We believe that all our projects need to fly at $50 per barrel. That's in a view that when you look at the majority of our projects and the time to market of these projects, you're looking at the long run. That's how we're thinking about this, right? With that in mind, what are we looking at? What we're looking at, firstly, in terms of your question about around leverage, that the 2.5x gross debt- to- EBITDA that we have been operating is one that seems reasonable, right? It seems reasonable, and it continues to be reasonable when you look ahead. What is the balance that we wanna have?
The balance that we wanna have is one where we have a bit of space there to incur debt, whether it's for inorganic opportunities that might arise, and also to capture or to reflect in our consolidated balance sheet the leverage that ISA might have given that their ceiling is 4.5x gross debt- to- EBITDA. Why is that important? Leverage is an engine of growth for ISA. ISA has a pipeline of opportunities going forward that is very attractive. The more we look at it, the more excited we are. We definitely don't want capital to be a constraint for ISA's growth, right? We are comfortable with that range that they were operating in.
It's 3.5x-4.5x , and we wouldn't have any problem with ISA going to the very top end of that range. With that, our range of 2.5x kinda makes sense. That's how we're looking at this. Now, on leverage, we're not gonna stay put. We just had this liability management transaction. We put $2 billion off our, if you will, of the near term. It was an expiry that we were gonna have in 2023. Now we kick that off into the future, and we intend to do that more. We believe that the fundamentals of the capital markets right now and the results that Ecopetrol are delivering allow us to pursue more transactions like that into the future. Directly, that's how we're thinking about that.
With regards to dividend payments, you know our policy. Our policy remains unchanged, 40%-60% of net income. In good years, you should expect, and we all should expect to be on the very high end of that range. That's how we're thinking ahead, and that's how we're planning our cash and our CapEx accordingly. Equity offering. Where does the equity offering fit into all of this? It's about optionality, Christian.
The idea here is that, while our spending is robust and we're comfortable with the leverage and we're comfortable with our ability to fund this CapEx for growth, which is our main intent, we wanna continue growing the company, we believe that the equity offering offers the optionality to support whether it's an increased necessity of CapEx, you know, or that's competitive, whether it's organic or inorganic, or simply to strengthen the balance sheet. Directly right now it would be about strengthening the balance sheet. It would be about reducing the debt that we have to get into a more comfortable level.
Finally, with regards to your question around ROCE, you might have seen that we posted a pretty solid ROCE result there on this 3Q, 10.8%, which is great, you know, going back to double digits. It's a number that puts us in with very little company in our sector. Very, very few companies are out there with us, and we're happy about that. When you include ISA in the equation, ISA is accretive. With ISA, we're actually, ISA will probably add once you normalize temporary effects and the like, because of this consolidation that you're seeing right now only reflects one month. Once you normalize for, if you will, business as usual with ISA is gonna add probably, you know, 4 or 5 points into that.
I would believe that hopefully by year-end, we're gonna be above 12% in terms of ROCE, and we can sustain that into the future, obviously depending on price. That's what we believe in right now. Thanks, Christian.
Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Bayón for final remarks.
Thank you so much. Very quickly, I'd just like to thank everyone for being here today at the conference call. Thanks again for following Ecopetrol, for the interest that you put into our activities and how we continue to make progress. Very good results for the quarter. Very good results, not only in terms of numbers, but in terms of how strategically we continue to advance. It's great to have now one month of ISA results into our consolidated results. Very pleased with the acquisition. It's going very well. We continue to make progress in our key ESG agenda, and hopefully we'll be able to sit again with you guys virtually for year-end results and conversations around our plans going forward. Hope that everybody stays safe.
Please take care, and thanks again for being with us today at this conference call. Bye-bye. Ciao. Gracias.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.