Ambev S.A. (BVMF:ABEV3)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2017

May 4, 2017

Operator

Good afternoon and thank you for waiting. We would like to welcome everyone to Ambev's first quarter of 2017 results conference call. Today with us, we have Mr. Bernardo Paiva, CEO for Ambev, and Mr. Ricardo Rittes, CFO and Investor Relations Officer. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded, and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the company's presentation. After Ambev's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. Should any participant need assistance during this call, please press star zero to reach the operator. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are being made under the safe harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Ambev's management and on information currently available to the company.

They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Ambev and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. I would also like to remind everyone that, as usual, the percentage changes that will be discussed during today's call are both organic and normalized in nature, and unless otherwise stated, percentage changes refer to the comparisons with Q1 2016 results. Normalized figures refer to the performance measures before exceptional items, which are either income or expenses that do not occur regularly as part of Ambev's normal activities.

As normalized figures are non-GAAP measures, the company disclosed the consolidated profit, EPS, EBIT, and EBITDA on a fully reported basis in the earnings release. Now, I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Ricardo Rittes, CFO and Investor Relations Officer. Mr. Rittes, you may begin your conference.

Ricardo Rittes
CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev

Thank you. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our 2017 first quarter earnings call. I will guide you through our financial highlights of Brazil, CAC, LAS, and Canada, including our below-the-line items and cash flow. After that, Bernardo will give you more details about our performance in Brazil. Starting with the main highlights of our consolidated results. We started the year with solid results in CAC, LAS, and Canada, impacted by an expected weak performance in Brazil. On a consolidated basis, top line was up 8% in the quarter, with volumes increasing by 2.4%, led by growth in most of the regions we operate and a net revenue per hectoliter increase of 5.3%. EBITDA was down 7.6% in the quarter, reaching BRL 4.4 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 38.7%.

Net profit was BRL 2.3 billion, which is 20.1% lower than that of the first quarter of 2016, driven by EBITDA organic decline and currency translation negative impact due to the appreciation of the Brazilian real. Cash generated from operations totaled BRL 3.1 billion versus BRL 2.3 billion in the first quarter of 2016, increasing by 37.7%. In Brazil, our EBITDA declined 23.8%, being explained by expected headwinds.

First, the temporary increase of our cash COGS by 38.2% and on a per hectoliter basis by 34.8%, mainly due to FX impacts, inflation, and a hard comparable in the first quarter of 2016, when our cash COGS per hectoliter increased by 2.3% despite of an inflation of around 10% and an FX impact of more than 20%. Second, a tough comparable net revenue per hectoliter as the 2016 state tax increases only became effective towards the end of February 2016, and thus the first quarter of 2017 is still a year-over-year comparison on an apples-to-oranges basis.

On the other hand, we will see the consumer market in Brazil remain challenging, leading to the beer industry decline of low single digits based on Nielsen. We have been able to revert the negative trend and grow our beer volumes by 3.4%, outperforming the industry. Bernardo will expand on this topic. Going into more detail of our operational results in Brazil. Net revenue in Brazil was up 0.6% in the quarter and EBITDA down 23.8% to BRL 2.5 billion with a margin of 39.0%. Net revenue per hectoliter in Brazil beer was down 2.2% in the quarter.

On top of a hard comparable basis, as part of our revenue management strategy, we continued to use our full portfolio of packs and brands to drive affordability to consumers, including the 1 L returnable glass bottles in the on-trade channel and the 300 mL returnable glass bottles in the off-trade channel. Volumes of both packaging presentations grew double digits in the quarter. Brazil CSD&NA top line was down 2.6% as furnished volumes were impacted by net revenue per hectoliter of -2.7%. According to Nielsen, the CSD&NA industry declined high single digits as consumers continued to be pressured by negative real disposable income growth. Brazil cash COGS was up 38.2%, while on a per hectoliter basis, 34.8% mainly due to, first, FX impact.

Given our hedge policy, the devaluation of the Brazilian real in the first quarter of 2016 is fully impacting our COGS now. At that time, the BRL suffered close to a 40% year-over-year devaluation, thus temporarily inflating the cost of our commodities priced in U.S. Dollars, which represent around 50% of our COGS in Brazil. Second, inflation, and third, a hard comparable base in the first quarter of 2016 when our cash COGS per hectoliter increased by only 2.3% despite of an inflation of around 10% and an FX impact of more than 20%. In this context, we reiterate our guidance that we expect cash COGS per hectoliter to grow double digits in the first half and to be flattish to low single digit up in the second half of 2017.

Having said that, the year-over-year growth of the cash COGS per hectoliter in the second quarter of 2017 will be significantly lower than in the first quarter, being a bridge for the second half of the year. Brazil cash SG&A was up 1.5% below inflation due to, one, a low single-digit growth of distribution administrative expenses, and second, a decline in sales and marketing expenses driven by efficiency gains in our non-working money. Now moving to our international operations. In Central America and the Caribbean, we continue to experience a good momentum in the region. In the first quarter of 2017, EBITDA in CAC reached BRL 377 million, increasing organically by 7.8%, while in U.S. dollars reported EBITDA grew close to 25%.

Net revenues increased by 5.5% and on a per hectoliter basis by 3.4%. Organic volumes increased by 1.2% on a tough comparable of 10.4% growth in the first quarter of 2016. On a reported basis, volumes were up 27.3%, benefiting from the recent swap of assets carried out with ABI and our operations in Panama. In Dominican Republic, we continue to connect with our consumers through relevant platforms such as Carnaval Presidente and the World Baseball Classic, supporting the equity of our brands. In Guatemala, we improved our execution with strong super-summer activation of Corona and Busch. Along with top line, our EBITDA performance also benefited from a solid financial discipline, leveraging on both costs and expense saving, expanding our EBITDA margins for another quarter.

Going forward, we will keep pursuing top line growth and EBITDA margin expansion, and we remain enthusiastic with our operations in the region. Now moving to Latin America South. Our top line in the region was up 27.4% and EBITDA 20.5% above that of last year, reaching BRL 1.2 billion. Net revenue per hectoliter increased by 23.3%, explained by revenue management strategy linked to inflation and premium mix. Volume grew 3.1% as the softness of the CSD and NAB industry in the region was more than offset by strong performance of beer in, number one, Argentina, where volumes reverted the recent negative trend and increased by high single digits with great contribution from Brahma, Iguana and Corona. Second, Bolivia, mainly driven by Huari. Third, Paraguay, with another outperformance of Brahma, Bud Light and Ouro Fino.

Fourth, Chile, with strong performance of our global brands. Fifth, Uruguay, with a double-digit volume growth driven by both mainstream and premium portfolios. Cash COGS in the region grew by 41.8%, while on a hectoliter basis by 35%, mainly driven by high inflation and negative currency impact. Further, cash SG&A increased by 27.7%, adversely impacted by inflationary pressures in Argentina, resulting in an EBITDA margin compression of 250 basis points to 43.5%. Going forward, we are excited with the positive volume strength and top-line growth opportunities in the region, especially for beer, while we're still cautious with the macro environment in Argentina. Turning now to Canada. We delivered in the first quarter BRL 221 million of EBITDA, 17.5% higher than in the first quarter of 2016.

Top line was up 2.3% as volume decline was more than offset by an increase of net revenue per hectoliter of 3.3% driven by our revenue management initiatives. Volumes were down by 0.9%, mostly due to contraction of the Canadian beer industry impacted by Easter holiday phasing, partially offset by performance ahead of trend of our lead brand, Budweiser, double-digit growth of Bud Light and continued strong support from the craft and near beer portfolio.

Cash COGS decreased by 8.4%, while on a per hectoliter basis by 7.6%, primarily driven by cost absorption with increased production and cost efficiencies with our import portfolio from ABI, while cash SG&A expenses increased by 2.5%. Going forward, we remain committed to balance volume and price, and confident that we have the right portfolio to deliver profitable growth. Back to consolidated figures. Other operating income totaled BRL 291 million in the quarter, mainly explained by government grants related to state VAT long-term tax incentives that were down year- over- year due to, one, the expiration of VAT government grant agreements in the fourth quarter of 2016, and two, revenue geographic mix. Now, moving below EBITDA.

In the first quarter, our net financial results totaled BRL 873 million, 25.5% less than in the first quarter of 2016. Going to more details. Main items in the financial expense in the quarter were, first, interest income of BRL 109 million, driven by our cash balance made in Brazilian reals, U.S. Dollars, and Canadian dollars. Second, interest expenses of BRL 402 million that include a non-cash accrual of around BRL 140 million related to the put option associated with our investment in Dominican Republic. As part of the C&D deal in 2012, a put option exercisable until 2019 was issued, which may result in an acquisition by Ambev S.A. of the remaining shares of C&D for a value based on an EBITDA multiple.

Third, BRL 247 million of losses on derivatives instruments, mainly driven by the carry costs of our FX hedges, primarily linked to our COGS exposure in Brazil and Argentina. Given the interest rate differential between Brazilian reals and Argentine pesos and the U.S. Dollars, we have financial costs associated to these hedges, which are called carry costs. Carry costs are going down as expected, mainly due to the reversal of the Brazilian real and due to lower interest rates in Brazil. Fourth, losses on non-derivative instruments of BRL 78 million, mainly related to FX translation, 68% lower than that in the first quarter of 2016. Fifth, BRL 216 million of other financial expenses, mainly driven by interest on contingencies. The effective tax rate in the quarter was 12.9% versus 10.4% last year.

From a cash flow perspective, cash flow from operating activity before changes in working capital was BRL 4.6 billion. Cash generated from our operations was BRL 3.1 billion, which is 37.7% higher than that in the first quarter of 2016, and CapEx totaled BRL 559 million, which is 20.9% less than that in the first quarter of 2016. Finally, during the first quarter, we returned approximately BRL 1.1 billion to equity holders in dividends. Thank you very much. I will now move to Bernardo before going to Q&A.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Thank you, Ricardo. Hello, everyone. We started 2017 with a solid volume performance boosted by beer in Brazil, where volumes grew 3.4%, while the total industry was down low single digits. In Brazil, we left 2016 with our beer volumes going down 6.6%, performing slightly below the industry that declined low single digits. In the first quarter, we had a turnaround, outperforming the industry and recovering growth amid a still very weak macro environment. As explained by Ricardo, our financial results in Brazil were still weak due to temporary headwinds that will attenuate throughout the year. First, the increase of our cash costs, mainly driven by FX impacts, inflation, and a hard comparable in the first quarter of 2016.

Second, a tough comparable net revenue per hectoliter, as the 2016 state taxes increase only became effective toward end of February. Thus, we still have a year-over-year comparison on an organic apple-to-apple basis. When we announced our full year 2016 results, we've mentioned that 2016 was also a year we took as an opportunity to strengthen our foundations for the future and that we felt confident on our ability to resume growth. Our beer volumes in the first quarter of 2017 confirmed that. Beer volumes were up in all the segments we operate, such as Core Plus, and Premium. Finally, a consistent recovery supported by the initiatives we've been implementing in our business through our commercial platforms. First, we Elevate the Core. Elevate the Core is our top priority.

Building strong brand is key to create enduring bonds with our consumers. Several initiatives were created in the past 18 months under the Elevate the Core platform, and that I've mentioned in our last call, such as new visual brand identities, improvements on primary and secondary packaging, bolder 360-degree activations, among others. All of them have started to hit the market during this quarter, positively impacting our volumes performance. On top of that, we've been expanding the beer key selling moments. Skol, our easy drinking lager, boosted its presence during Carnival, bringing excitement to more than 40 cities and engaging with more than 35 million people. While delivering amazing experience in one of the most important events of the year. Skol also launched new campaigns conveying meaningful message related to inclusion and diversity.

Examples of the brand's concept are the launch of the limited edition of skin-colored cans to celebrate diversity and the Repost campaign, when Skol has invited feminist artists to redesign old posters with the purpose of passing on women's power and strength. For Brahma, our classic lager, we've continued to communicate Brahma's campaign that highlights our passion for brewing. On top of that, we've just launched a new visual brand identity to enhance the brand's attributes of flavor and beer expertise. Its gold and red colors are still there, but in a square label and a totally new design inspired in its old visual brand identity, evoking all the tradition Brahma has based on more than 120 years of heritage.

With the Skol and Brahma's package and VBI improvements, Skol with its round label and young spirit, and Brahma with its square label and heritage, combined with all the brands initiatives and together with meaningful and distinct communication for each brand, we've been able to differentiate our easy drink lager and our classic lager even more. Still talking about Brahma's family, Brahma Extra continues to deliver amazing results in the Core Plus segment, growing triple digits year-over-year. Finally, Antarctica. It continues to engage with its core target consumers through its innovative media format, with a web series presented in YouTube and in cinemas, creating even stronger bonds with Rio de Janeiro and the samba as a background, conveying the underlying message that good things attract good things. There is still more to come.

We will continue to focus on the full rollout of our initiatives, and we are looking forward to deliver a strong execution in the 360 activation during other key selling moments, such as the traditional São João in the Northeast and the LGBT parade in São Paulo. Now talk about premium. We have a complete portfolio of premium brands with domestic and global brands such as Original, Serra Malte, Budweiser, Stella Artois, and Corona. Our premium portfolio delivered another quarter of solid performance with volumes growing double digits, supported by a continuous improvement of execution and strong marketing campaigns. Budweiser continues to lead the segment with volumes increasing more than 30% year-over-year.

Stella Artois launched the global campaign, buy a Lady a Drink, in partnership with Water.org to help raise awareness of the global water crisis, inviting its core target consumers to leave a legacy and enhance the brand's attribute of quality. Moving to near beer. Our strong activation during Carnival has been supported by Skol Beats with its three variants, Senses, Spirit and Secret. Going forward, there is still a big opportunity for near beer, capturing a bigger share of throat in non-traditional beer occasions. Moving to occasions and start with in-home. We are putting great efforts to improve execution in the off-trade channel through the expansion of programs designed to improve the assortment of products and category space, enhancing shoppers' experience. In addition, the 300 ml returnable glass bottles are still big focus in this year.

They continue to grow year-over-year ahead of the industry, driving affordability to consumers amid the depressed macro environment. This is an important initiative for the short and for the long term. Moving to out of home. In the out of home occasion, improving execution and service level across the country is definitely one of our top priorities. Further, among other initiatives, we are investing in meaningful trade programs to support the point of sales in such a tough macro environment. The 1 L returnable glass bottles are also playing an important role in this channel, growing volumes year-over-year and driving affordability in the out of home occasion. In summary, we are confident that the initiatives taken under our commercial platforms have played a key role for the recovery of our volumes.

On top of that, it's important to highlight that we've continued to improve the efficiency of our sales and marketing investments with more developed process, stronger consumer insights, and more robust testing models. On the other hand, it's important to keep in mind that the macro environment remains very challenging with an all-time high unemployment rate and depressed disposable income, what's leading to a continued decline of the beer industry. In this context, we remain cautiously optimistic for the year and we continue to leverage our commercial platforms. We will also keep pursuing efficiencies in our investment as we made in the first quarter. Despite the short-term negative impact of our COGS, as part of our culture, we will push ourselves further to improve our cost performance and deliver superior results.

We remain excited with the opportunities we see going forward to resume top line and EBITDA growth. We can now move to the Q&A. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, we ask you please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Today's first question comes from Isabella Simonato of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Isabella Simonato
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Good afternoon, Bernardo, Ricardo. Thank you for the call. I have two questions related to beer in Brazil. First of that, on SG&A. Despite all the investments you made on Carnival, you managed to deliver flat SG&A. You mentioned you captured some efficiencies on non-working money. If you could outline to us specifically which were those, and also how sustainable are those efficiencies going forward. My second question is regarding volumes. In my calculations here, you were able to get a market share that is close to the top of the range historically. I understand that Carnival probably represents a big part of that, but if you could give more details on what else helped to drive this performance.

Any change in terms of, consumers or competitive dynamics, this quarter? Thank you.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Thanks, Isabella. A very good question. I think that the first question is regarding the SG&A, the marketing sales investment. As I said in my speech, we've continued to improve the efficiency in the sales and marketing investment. First, it's much better. I mean, we're going even more in the insights that we have, not only in the way that you build the brands and, but really finding the meaningful message. With that, we can concentrate investment in the meaningful message behind the brands. In the trade as well. All the shopper insights that we have have been helping us to be more efficient in the investment. The second point is better process. Really bring excellence even more to the next level, not only for the sales organization but also marketing organization.

Testing more, everything that we do. We have a much more, I mean, robust testing model. We are making choices as well. I think that understanding the right insights, we can not only be more efficient, but bring the money, put the money behind the things that really matters to grow. The second question is linked to the share. I think that as we always said, Brazilian market share is, it's tough, but we are pleased with our volumes. Our volumes are 3.4%. As you saw, I mean, the industry is, I mean, low single digit below last year.

I think that we are pleased with the kind of performance in the market that we had in the first quarter since we significantly outperformed the industry.

Isabella Simonato
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mariana Hernandez of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Mariana Hernandez
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Good afternoon, Bernardo and Rittes. Thanks for taking my question. My question is also regarding Brazil SG&A. I was wondering if maybe you could be more specific. I mean, there was a relocation of portion of the expenses between beer and soft drinks SG&A. What was this about exactly? And I mean, what did you mean by efficiency gains with non-working money for the beer SG&A in particular? And still on SG&A, but now looking longer term, how do you see SG&A evolving going forward? I mean, given the strategy of boosting top-line growth and organic growth, but also considering you are going to start reaching points of sale that you were not yet present or you were not operating as well as you think you are.

I think it's also fair to say, also considering the, in the new outlook, now there is a different or bigger competitor in the market. How do you see design evolving going forward? Thanks a lot.

Ricardo Rittes
CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev

Hi, Mariana. This is Ricardo. Thank you for your question. I mean, first of all, in terms of SG&A, we just want to highlight that, it's not like a program or anything. It's part of our strategy, long-term strategy for us to find non-working money and take this out of the system and then, you know, invest the necessary resources into the marketplace for us to be able to win in the marketplace. As a result of that, it's nothing different from what we have been doing, you know, always. If you go back a couple of years, you see that we step up some of our selling investments over the course of the last years.

In a way, I think the company has been able to outperform, if you will, inflation in SG&A line over the course of its existence. That's pretty much, I think, the strategy. We don't give guidance for SG&A for the longer term. As Bernardo said, the Brazilian market is very competitive. We don't like to comment specifically about any of our competitors. It has been very competitive for a long time already. As a matter of fact, like, I think even Brito said in the ABI call today, we like a good competition.

Mariana Hernandez
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Our next question comes from Luca Cipiccia of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Luca Cipiccia
Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask two things. One, maybe a clarification on some comments that were made in the earlier call from ABI. Just, you know, we look at the margin contraction, the gross margin contraction in the quarter, in Brazil, you know, we've seen the drivers, revenue per liter, cost per liter, and some of the things that you highlighted. I think there was a comment that suggested that 75% or so the margin contraction was FX-related as compared to mix.

I just wanted to clarify maybe or if you could expand a little bit or help us separate a bit better, you know, what is packaging mix, what is in fact more the sort of temporary effects, headwind that we discussed in the past. I think there was that reference in the ABI call, if I'm correct, and I just was hoping that you could clarify that. That's my first question, then I have a more general follow-up.

Ricardo Rittes
CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev

Hi, Luca. This is Ricardo. Thank you for your question. In a nutshell, I think, essentially what we had impacting margins are the temporary headwinds. This is like the number one reason and represent, like ABI said, 75% of the impact or even more. This, as was also discussed in the ABI call, these are headwinds that are expected to dissipate over the course of the year. That was even the word that Brito used. How can we say that? Because of course, we have a hedging policy in which the transaction effects we know some time in advance.

We discussed that even when we announced the third quarter of last year results, and again in the fourth quarter, that we made a decision to take like a short-term hit into our P&L in order to build, if you will, a better future for the whole Brazilian industry. In summary, I mean, giving as much clarity as we could give, you know, essentially what you see, the number one impacting factor in the margin contraction, and the 75% is correct as well, is the effect impact.

Luca Cipiccia
Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thanks. That's clear. Just as a follow-up to that, without necessarily putting a timeline, but if I, you know, if I look at your gross margin for Brazil beer on a, say, 10 or 12 years average, I think it's been around 70% or so. Last year was around 64%. That's about a, you know, 500-600 basis point gap between the type of profitability we've seen in 2016 and even lower, in fact, in this quarter.

My question would be, as we seem to be moving to a more normalized environment in Brazil, lower inflation, consumer arguably possibly picking up later on, is there an element of doubting that you can, you know, go back to that level of normalized profitability again on a gross margin basis, around 70% that we've seen historically you were able to achieve, or some of the structural mix evolution that we're seeing, you know, should assess more caution? Again, not necessarily putting a time frame, but more under a normalized Brazilian market from a consumer standpoint and effects backdrop as well.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Luca, thanks for the question. I think very minor. I mean, we don't give a guidance of margins, but I think it's fair to say that we see opportunities now to really enhance the margins. In the last five, 10 years, we're able to keep consistently increasing margins. In the long run, I mean, we've done that, and despite of the short-term issues like we had last year, so and still this quarter, that are temporary and will be dissipated towards end of the year.

Luca Cipiccia
Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, understand. Thank you. Thanks.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Lauren Torres of UBS. Please go ahead.

Lauren Torres
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yes. Hi, good afternoon. Bernardo, I was hoping you could expand a little bit more on your commercial platform of accelerating Premium. I think it's been quite impressive in light of a softer consumer that we've seen this double-digit growth in the Premium category. Just looking for your broader perspective on the potential of the Premium category in Brazil. I think it does under-index versus the world average of Premium brands. You know, how quickly do you think this could develop? What's not just the volume, but I guess the profit or the margin potential of these Premium brands to your mix? I think we ask a lot about pricing but forget about mix. Can you talk about that mix impact to your numbers and how quickly we could see more of that being impactful to your numbers going forward?

Thank you.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Thanks, Lauren. I think that, I mean, as you said, the premium brands are growing in a solid way, and we are very confident that the segment will continue to grow ahead of the industry for the next years. I mean, one important information, there is strong preference for premium brands in Brazil close to 30%. In the segment, it's under-penetrated, including in regions of the country. On top of that, we have a complete portfolio of brands that today represent 10% of our beer volume. That could be even more. We have global brands. We have domestic premium brands. We have the craft beers that we acquired.

More important than that, we have a deep knowledge of the consumer, insights and need states to assure that each brand will play in the right space. That's why I think that there is no one else in the market positioned as good as we are to benefit from this opportunity. Taking one example, Budweiser, for instance, was up 30% year- over- year and is the leading brand in this segment. Every quarter we see this, I mean, this brand growing and growing in a very healthy way, because all the brand attributes are up as well. All the route to market and sales execution initiatives that are put in place to support specific execution that is needed for the premium, things that have been evolving a lot.

With that, in a market that we need to build brands, with the right content, the right brands, but in the trade as well, I think that we are really in the right path, to really get all this, the opportunity that the Premium segment growth will have in Brazil for the future. We are doing this and continue to do even more.

Lauren Torres
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

I guess just as a quick follow-up, I know you don't directly comment on competition, but you know, Heineken's obviously doing the same initiative with their premium brand. You know, just to add on to that, if there's any differentiating factor that you could talk about with respect to your portfolio and how you feel that, you know, relative to the competition, you're doing something a bit different or to capture more attention longer term.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

I mean, we always say we don't talk about other companies and things that we like to compete in the market. It's good for the industry, and it's good for us as well because in the open gaps, and you can evolve. I think that one of the biggest strengths that we have is the portfolio, the complete portfolio of brands that we have. We have in the global, we have not only Budweiser, but Stella, Corona as well. We go to domestic premium, Original, Serra Malte, that's doing a great job. And if you go to the crafts, we have important brands as well, like Colorado, one example, that's important. It's important really to fulfill the need states that we can see in the marketplace.

The portfolio that we have is really, really strong. Again, together with that, a strong execution that we are evolving big time to support, the execution of those brands in the right place.

Lauren Torres
Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Very good. Thank you.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

I think that's it. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Pedro Leduc of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Pedro Leduc
VP and Latin America Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Hello, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. Two quick ones. First, on the Brazil beer volumes up 3.4, if you have an estimate of what it looked like excluding the more advantageous Carnival weeks. So just for us to gauge what the underlying trends may be for the next one. Then, still on Brazil beer, average price is down 2% year-over-year. I understand you're up against a tough base, a tax effect. But also, I'm looking into perhaps a mix between channel and as well as packaging. First of all, understand that you did not discount prices down 2% year-over-year, just to make sure.

If you've noticed any sort of improvement in the consumer health, maybe looking for up trading, maybe a little more on-trade activity, or haven't seen any of that or is it still to come in your view? Thank you.

Ricardo Rittes
CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev

Hi, Pedro. This is Ricardo. Let me start by commenting on the net revenue per hectoliter. Net revenue per hectoliter, one way of looking at it is also to look sequentially, because, you know, we have information on the third and fourth quarter of last year. When you look sequentially, usually from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, there is a reduction in net revenue per hectoliter. Why? Because there's the catch-up in terms of taxes, as we have discussed many times. And as a result of that, it's important for you to look and compare the first quarter to the third quarter, which is like immediately before price increase for you to have a sense of the evolution of net revenue per hectoliter on a more linear basis.

For the third quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2017, after pricing and state taxes update, net revenue per hectoliter was still up, increasing by 7.8%. In any case, we should keep in mind that the longer the period, the better or more precise is the visibility of net revenue per hectoliter. For instance, if you go back five years, net revenue per hectoliter has increased in line with inflation despite some short-term volatility. Again, what we said even in the release, the -2.2% is related to, you know, a period also that is a little bit of a large 12-month base because also we had the tax increase towards the end of February of last year.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Pedro, I mean, we don't comment about volumes in Carnival and so on. Just for you to understand what we have been doing in terms of understanding the occasions, you know? It's always important to be present and to gain share or activate the demand in occasions that maybe beer is not so relevant. It's also an even more important to boost the occasions that beer is relevant. The Carnival volume is not a given. The Carnival volume, if you understand really how to operate, how to do a 360 occasion-based activation with the right brands, with the right message, work with the street vendors, activating Carnival even 30 days before Carnival, you can really build demand.

If you build demand for our brands, you are able to gain share and activate the industry. I think that this demand activation mindset, understanding the occasions and connecting with the brands in a brand-led company, it's very powerful because you can lead the industry, make this industry better and leading that will gain share as well. I think that it's what I can comment. That's why the key selling moments are so important for our industry and for us, I mean, as a leader of this industry, we'll do it, even more. To elevate beer, and to drive volumes, to our company.

Pedro Leduc
VP and Latin America Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Bernardo, thank you. Just the last piece, if you have noticed any sort of improvement in the same consumer health, any up trading, any more on-trade activity, any signs of that or is it yet to come in your view?

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Pedro, just to highlight on that. As we mentioned in the speech, when you look at the overall industry, the beer industry in Brazil still had a decline in spite of a Carnival that was later in the year in comparison to the previous year. We have no doubt the macroeconomic environment in Brazil is still very tough with high unemployment and disposable income still at the very low levels. What we are confident is that we can see, let's say, improvement in sight. Very confident with Brazil, the country resuming growth, going forward.

Pedro Leduc
VP and Latin America Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Very well. Thank you.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Thank you, Pedro.

Operator

Our next question today comes from Thiago Duarte of BTG. Please go ahead.

Thiago Duarte
Associate Director and Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everybody. A couple of questions here. First, I wanted to follow up on this discussion about gross margin and COGS in Brazil. If you look at, you know, 29% growth year-over-year of COGS per hectoliter, ABI mentioned in the release that there is a 40% impact from the currency hedge, and that represents roughly 50% or half of your COGS. That leaves us about 20% impact coming from the rest of your COGS that are not FX related. I just wanted to get a little bit more granularity there in the sense that you mentioned that you have a very pretty hard comps in terms of COGS from last year's first quarter, and that's probably true.

Just wanted to understand what you think in terms of what your normalized cost should look like. Should we think more in terms of the first quarter of this year or the first quarter of last year, and why would be the difference? The second question is related to market share. You mentioned a few times that you made a pretty good progress in terms of outperforming the industry and gaining market share this year, so in the first quarter.

I just wanted to understand a little bit more, if you could give us a little bit more in terms of granularity for in terms of channel, in particular, if you made a better progress in the on-trade versus the off-trade for some reason, or vice versa, or even in terms of segments in the mainstream or the Premium. That would be interesting. Thank you very much.

Ricardo Rittes
CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev

Thiago, this is Ricardo. Just starting with the COGS. You know, we mentioned even the hard comparison of the first quarter. It's very important for you to bear in mind that within the quarter, it is pretty high volatility even into the hedging and the comparison, et cetera. Again, the longer the periods, the easier it is for you to see. We're gonna stick to the guidance. We expect a double-digit increase in terms of the COGS per hectoliter for the first semester of the year. Of course, a flattish to low single-digit evolution in the second semester of 2017.

What we added in this review was that the second quarter of 2017 is expected to be a bridge in which the year-on-year variation we expect to be significantly lower than that of the first quarter. The first quarter being, if you will, like a little bit of a concentration in terms of this variation and then migrating towards the second semester. This is as far as we went.

Again, we just used the comparison of the first quarter of 2016 for you to see that, you know, in spite of being very systematic in the way we hedge, even on a year-to-year basis, I think the hedging of 2016 on the take was like BRL 0.09 lower than the average of the spot rate of 2015. The hedging of 2017 on the take was exactly BRL 0.09 ahead of the average of the spot rate for the FX in 2016.

Again, we expect some of the variations, and we decided to give even more color on the COGS exactly for people to be able to make this bridge how the year is gonna look like on the COGS side.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Thiago, thanks for the question. Moving to the market share, I mean, as I said before, for the industry there was probably low single digit. Our volume is 3.4% above last year. Very pleased with that. What I can say, I mean, to get a volume like that, we have good results in the in-home occasion, but in the out-of-home occasion as well. That is a proxy for the channels.

I think that's what I can say to you. I think that we're on the right path in both occasions in terms of market share, in terms of volume performance.

Thiago Duarte
Associate Director and Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Thanks, Bernardo. Just to follow up on this, you also mentioned a good brand preference development throughout the quarter given your commercial initiatives and activations and so on and so forth. Can you give us a sense of if that happened across the board in terms of your brand portfolio, if there was a good recovery for the mainstream brands, or how that stacks up versus the brand preference that you had a few years ago, just for us to get a sense whether you're truly especially in terms of the mainstream brands, that would be interesting.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Thiago, I mean, again, what I can say, pleased because of the volumes and pleased because we understand why this volume happened. I mean, the initiatives that are put in place in the marketplace. One of that is all of the things that have been doing in terms of Elevate the Core, that things that you don't plan and implement overnight. I mean, have been working hard in the last years. I mean, some of the things that I said in terms of new PPI packagings and better understand of the key selling moments, meaningful methods behind those brands, Brahma, Skol, and Brahma, our core.

We have been working a lot in the last, I mean, one year and a half, two years, to really go to the next level, those brands, and happy to see that, I mean our preference in the first quarter was the Core brand. I'm not commenting one brand or another for competitive reasons, but I think that the Core Premium continued to grow, was good. You knew that. You continue to grow in the future. I'd say happy to see that the Core brands had a very good quarter, and we have very good plans for the future in our Elevate the Core platform.

Thiago Duarte
Associate Director and Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Thank you.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Yeah. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Antonio Barreto of Itaú. Please go ahead.

Antonio Barreto
Equity Research Analyst, Itaú BBA

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for the question. My first question is about Argentina. You mentioned a high single-digit growth in the country. I was wondering if you can give us a little bit more color, if at least you can compare to how the market performed. Also you commented on the FX hedging impact. I was wondering if we can expect that the FX hedges would have about the same shape of impact that they're having in Brazil, and they will dial down over the next quarters.

Ricardo Rittes
CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev

Hi, Antonio. This is Ricardo. Argentina, I think we are seeing, you know, important improvement in Argentina when you look in terms of the volume trends and when you look at at the overall market dynamic, if you will. Again, the overall environment in the country continues to be challenging with negative real disposable income growth, structural reforms undergoing the country, and we believe that presents a great potential for the future. Like we've said that before, they're putting pressure in the short term. One way that we put it, like in the past, is that the harder it is in the short term in Argentina, the more excited we get about the future. Why?

Because that means the structural reforms which present the challenge for the short term, they are being implemented, and as a result, we are more excited about the future. We have been in the country, you know, for a long time. Our brands have been in the homes of the consumers, you know, for a very long time. We are, you know, again, the same way that we are excited with Brazil as with Argentina. We believe we have a strong brand, a strong team. We continue to use our full toolkit to implement our revenue management initiatives to operate in a high inflationary environment in the country. The bottom line is that our team knows how to work in this environment, and we remain fully committed to our business in Argentina.

The good news is that, when things improve, we believe we will be even better positioned to capture it. In regard to the COGS and specific impact of the effects in the COGS in Argentina, we didn't disclose any of that, you know, for the market. We didn't disclose that. What you could expect also is, you know, similar. Again, we're very systematic in the way we do hedges. Similar pattern that we described for Brazil is what you should expect for Argentina as well.

Antonio Barreto
Equity Research Analyst, Itaú BBA

I don't know if you can comment, it would be helpful if you could at least comment on how was your volume performance, the high single digit performance that you reported, how was it compared to the market in Argentina?

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

I mean, we don't disclose our market share information on a quarterly basis. If you look at the difference between Brazil and Argentina, why we're able to comment on that is, number one of our competitive disclosures on how the market performed and we provided even the source in the first quarter. On top of that, again, I think we were giving some guidance, if you will, some direction in terms of how we performed. We don't do that in Argentina. Traditionally, we don't do that.

Antonio Barreto
Equity Research Analyst, Itaú BBA

Okay. If I could ask, just one last question about the working capital. I saw the working capital cycle going a bit down in this quarter, especially in the long-term accounts payable. If you could go over a little bit to explain to us or give us a little bit more color on what happened there, that would be helpful.

Ricardo Rittes
CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev

Of course. I mean, when you look at the overall cash flow generated from our operations, which was BRL 3.1 billion, it was almost like 40% higher than that in the first quarter of 2016. I think to be precise, it was 37.7%. CapEx was also down. I mean, if you look at the overall working capital cycle, specifically on the payables, when you come from the last quarter of the year, which you have like a higher stock of payables in comparison to the first quarter, you tend to see payables going down a little bit, is an evolution as you see over the course of the year as a whole.

Antonio Barreto
Equity Research Analyst, Itaú BBA

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Rob Ottenstein of Evercore. Please go ahead.

Rob Ottenstein
Senior Managing Director and Partner, Evercore ISI

Great. Thank you very much. Two questions off on a little bit different path than we've been on. In Brazil, the Coca-Cola Company now has been talking about the need to restructure its price pack architecture in the light of the kind of new realities for the consumer and disposable income. Wanted to get a sense of where you thought you were on the soft drink side and whether you feel that you need to make those same sorts of moves or ahead of the curve. That's question number one. Question number two, I was wondering if you could give a little bit more insight into what's going on in Canada. You know, volumes were down, but very strong revenue per hectoliter, you know, up 3.3%.

Just trying to understand a little bit what's going on there, and then also what's going on on the COGS, which was down substantially. Thank you.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Hi, Rob. How are you? Thanks for the question. Seeing that, I'll just get the question of the soft drinks. We've been doing a very good job in terms of the revenue management with soft drinks and really trying to understand per region, per channel, because we know that I mean, the huge crisis that we had and still face affects disposable income, and this affects the soft drink business even more if I could compare with beer. Both struggle with that, but the CSD business even more. Having said that, I think that we have a good plan in terms of revenue management, understanding the disposable income per region, per channel, understanding the capacity that we have and in each area.

I mean, doing this kind of matching capacity, elasticity models that we have per pack, per region, per channel, to maximize the capacity that we have to drive affordability in a moment like that with good margins. That's what I could say. I mean, we are working on this, I mean, not now, I mean, since we knew two years ago, three years ago that the crisis in Brazil would be tough and would affect soft drink business even more than other kind of business.

Rob Ottenstein
Senior Managing Director and Partner, Evercore ISI

It sounds like you're ahead of them in terms of right sizing, so to speak, the price pack architecture.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

I would not comment, I mean, about what they're doing or what the competitors are doing. Just saying that this is a top issue in our agenda, has been a top issue, in our agenda. We are evolving the way that we think that's good for Ambev and for people that like our brands.

Rob Ottenstein
Senior Managing Director and Partner, Evercore ISI

Okay.

Thank you.

Ricardo Rittes
CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev

And then-

Robert, the next question about Canada. We had very strong performance in Canada this quarter. Just to highlight, it's a little bit of the same, but inverted situation that we have had in Brazil with the volatility on the COGS side here in terms of the input costs being translated into more Brazilian reais and as a result of that negatively impacting our business in Brazil. In Canada, just for example, we also have an important brand there, Corona, that we import from Mexico and buy from ABI. It's imported, produced in Mexico. Also , we had some effects among them, some of the Corona impacting the P&L, specifically the COGS line on a positive scenario given the recent weakness of the Mexican peso.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Today's final question will come from Alex Robarts of Citi. Please go ahead.

Alex Robarts
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Hi, everybody. Thanks. I wanted to go back to the Brazil COGS and, you know, appreciate the guidance and the new information around 2Q. The reality is that there's still a four or five percentage points of delta in the second half when we think about how the growth of COGS per hectoliter decelerates. At the growth level, that can be meaningful when we think about earnings. Kind of in the spirit of that, I had two related questions on Brazil COGS. I understood from your prepared remarks that dollar COGS as a percent of total COGS in Brazil are now around 50%.

I guess I recall the messaging last year that number was around 40%. I guess I wonder is it fair to assume that there's been a step up in just the dollar piece of your Brazilian COGS? The second related question is, you've made the case publicly that the dollar hedge cost pressure will dissipate as we kind of look out for the rest of the year. I'm wondering about the dollar commodity cost curve, which you also hedge. Is it fair to assume that perhaps it goes the other way?

The reason why I ask that is when we look at the aluminum price futures with the wheat, which is how we get kind of a proxy for malt as well as PET. I mean, it seems like those three inputs seem to be or have been trending up. I'm wondering if that sounds about right, and would it be fair to think that the commodity hedge you guys have this year might be above the one last year? Thank you.

Ricardo Rittes
CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev

Alex, thanks for your question. Let me start with first the comment that you made was absolutely correct, which is the 40% of our total cost moving up to 60%. Of course, as the FX effects move and that 40% increases more than the other 60% on a proportional basis, it increases the overall percentage of the pie. As a result, that was what happened. If you look at our costs, total costs with FX effects before, you know, what we've seen, like let's say at a level of 2.5 or something was closer to 40%. At the current level of three something is closer to 50%.

Just to explain the evolution right now, I think it's even easier for people to do their, let's say, mental calculations with the 50% of our costs being FX related. Regarding that cost impact over the course of 2017, again, like we said, we expect it to dissipate in the second semester. Just to reiterate, we believe that, you know, cost structure is expected to be flattish to low single digits in the second semester of this year. We provided, you know, more information about the second quarter, saying that, you know, from this very high level or this evolution that we have seen this quarter, we expect the second quarter to be a little bit of a bridge to that.

With regards to the other commodities, specifically the ones that you mentioned, aluminum is the most important one out of the three that you mentioned. I'm gonna use aluminum as an example. Aluminum has increased in price recently, and that's true, but at the same time, aluminum is still very inexpensive when you look in real terms on a longer-term view, if you will. Aluminum has traded, you know, let's say 10 years ago, if you will, at like BRL 3,300 per metric ton, and currently it's at much, let's say, lower levels. In spite of the recent volatility that we have had in aluminum, hedging policy protects us to be able to react operationally.

I just want to make the point and highlight that the size of magnitude and the size of exposure of the Brazilian real FX effects, which is 60% of the cost, is much, much larger than any of the other commodities that we have, individually, if you will. In spite of some of those commodities having a higher volatility than the FX historically, it is still, again, Brazilian FX effects impacts the Brazilian costs much more than any of the commodities individually.

Alex Robarts
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Okay, got it. Thank you.

Ricardo Rittes
CFO and Investor Relations Officer, Ambev

Thank you, Alex.

Thank you. Thanks for your question.

Operator

This concludes our question- and- answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Bernardo Paiva for any closing remarks.

Bernardo Paiva
CEO, Ambev

Thanks, Ricardo Rittes. Everyone, before we finish our call, I'd like to highlight once again that the headwinds that have impacted our results in this quarter will dissipate throughout the year. On top of that, we are very pleased with our beer volumes performance in the first quarter, which has strongly supported by our commercial platforms. However, we cannot deny that the economic activity in Brazil has still not, I mean, yet in the shape that we want, and the macro is still very tough out there. Having said that, we remain cautiously optimistic for the year, and we'll continue to put greater force on our planned commercial platforms to strengthen the pillars for the future and for the short term. We are very confident that we're on the right path to resume top line and EBITDA growth. Thank you.

Enjoy the rest of your day.

Operator

Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference. You may all disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

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