Aeris Indústria e Comércio de Equipamentos para Geração de Energia S.A. (BVMF:AERI3)
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May 4, 2026, 4:54 PM GMT-3
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Earnings Call: Q1 2024

May 15, 2024

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Aeris Earnings Conference Call for the first quarter of 2024. Here with us today are Alexandre Negrão, CEO, and José Azevedo, CFO and Investor Relations Officer . This event is being recorded, and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the Aeris presentation. After that, there will be a Q&A session when further instructions will be given. Should any participant need assistance during this call, please send a message using the chat on the right side of the screen. Before proceeding, let me mention that statements made in this call regarding the business outlook of the company, operational and financial projections and goals, are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Aeris management. Forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance.

They involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Macroeconomic conditions, industry conditions, and other factors could also cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Alexandre Negrão. Mr. Negrão, you may begin your presentation. Thank you, Laís. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to one more earnings conference call of Aeris for the first quarter of 2024. Moving on to slide number 2, where we talk about the highlights, we will talk about installations in 2023. At the end of the year, I talked about the expected figures, and now we have the official numbers.

So I highlight that Brazil had a record number of installations, 4.9 giga, China with 75 giga, also a record in the country, and worldwide had a record of 117 giga. So the conclusion we reach with these figures, in our point of view, is that despite the growth and despite a record number of installations, these figures are still below what we expected because in the COP28, there was a commitment to triple the amount of renewable energy worldwide in the next five years. We're talking about 300 giga for wind power. And we believe that this number will be close to this figure, near 2030. So the highlight is that there has been a growth but still below what was expected, and a growth mostly driven by China. So China has been responsible for 60% of the total wind power turbines installed.

In terms of improved efficiency here, we continue at Aeris to adapt the company efficiently to the new size and the new demand that we envisaged for the years of 2024 and 2025. Again, if we remember the last calls, especially in the beginning of last year, we talked a lot about how we would have to improve our operational efficiency given the new challenges of the size of the blade we were manufacturing, also to improve commercial terms and adapt our capital structure. All of that was done during 2023. We still have to continue to adapt the company to its size given the challenges we have in terms of demand, both in the domestic market and international market. Now, thinking about short-term challenges. Now, on slide three, I'll talk about the results and its highlights.

We reported a net loss of BRL 41.2 million, a net revenue of BRL 515 million, and BRL 2.7 million in LTM, investments of almost BRL 15 million, and an EBITDA of BRL 42.5 million and BRL 232.6 million last 12 months. On page 4, we see the percentage of blades invoiced by wind turbine category. Here we can see a drop referring to when comparing the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024 from 4.9 to 4.2. That is related to the end of the contract with Siemens Gamesa because that was the most powerful turbine that was manufactured at Aeris. So with the end of this contract, we decreased the average power of our turbines. Now, moving on to slide 5, I turn the floor over to our CFO, and at the end of the conference, I'll be back for the Q&A session and final remarks. Thank you.

Thank you, Alexandre. Now moving to slide 5. When we compare the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2023, there was a drop of 26.7% in revenue due to the decommissioning of 5 lines in this quarter. It's important to highlight that this result was planned in our budget. Moving to slide 6, we can see a non-operational improvement comparing the cost of direct materials to the average price per megawatt. Moving to slide 7. In the first quarter of 2024, the EBITDA amounted to BRL 42.5 million, a growth of 24.9%, with a margin of 82%, which is 3.4% higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. This margin increase results from greater operational efficiency in the manufacturing of blades, in addition to a better management of general operating expenses. Moving to slide 8. In this quarter, the CAPEX was BRL 14.9 million in line with budget.

As you can see, it was 47% lower than in the first quarter of 2023. On slide 9, we closed the first quarter of 2024 with robust cash of BRL 701.4 million, a position sufficient to cover short-term liabilities, 12 months. It's important to highlight that we extended our debt with Banco Santander and Banco do Brasil in a total amount of BRL 250 million, which would mature in the beginning of 2024, and they were extended to 2026. On slide 10, we see inventory evolution. When we compare the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2023, there was a reduction of BRL 24 million in work in progress and finished products, and a decrease of BRL 39 million in raw material. On slide 11, we show the development of potential orders covered by long-term contracts.

We closed the first quarter with potential orders from long-term contracts of 12.2 gigawatts and a potential revenue from contracts of BRL 10 billion. To conclude, on slide 12, we see the production line schedule. As mentioned in this call, we decommissioned 5 lines, and we currently have 10 lines that are active and mature. In the second half of 2024, we'll start the pre-operation of 2 new lines. This ends the presentation, and we'll now start the Q&A session. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now start the Q&A session. In order to ask a question, please send it on the chat that's on the right side of the screen. Should you want to send by audio, please request it on the chat, the link for the audio. Our first question comes from Matheus from Grupo SOMA. Good morning.

Could you explain the reasons that led to the results of the first quarter of 2023 to be presented again, something that increased the margin of EBITDA to 21% above the 11% of the release for the first quarter of 2023? Another question regarding the investments that were two quarters below BRL 10 million. Good morning, Matheus. The revenue was presented again because we changed the recognition rule. Since we had to do that based on the end of 2022, considering the final results of 2022, there was a higher impact on this first quarter because of that change. Throughout the quarters, you'll see that this will be absorbed because as this revenues are advanced and invoices are issued, that is equalized. So the impact comes from these adjustments made in the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023.

As for CAPEX investment, well, in the first quarter of this year, it was the regular CAPEX of maintenance that is usually lower, but now CAPEX is preparing for the new lines. This is why it's increased. The next question comes from Conrado from Soma Investimentos. The leverage close to covenants mentions the need, signals any need for capitalization. Are you going to raise funds with BNDES? Hello, Conrado. Good morning. The fact that we're close to the covenant, we are operating close to it. One of our assumptions was to work on this capital structure. We started in November with the follow-on. We are continuing that. And this continuation has two points. First, the issue of changing the debt profile. We're working on that with the banks and development banks, yes. As for capitalization, we are studying, but we do have a possibility of transforming the assets we have.

In this case, we're talking about buildings. We could convert that into cash. This is a possibility. We've made assessments. There are some possibilities, but we still haven't decided yet which one is the best option for the company. Next question comes from Moisés. What is the expected business for the coming years, and how should that impact the good results of the company? Good morning, Moisés. As we've mentioned earlier, and I said in the beginning of the presentation, I will clarify also in the final remarks, the industry as a whole is going through a challenge in the 2024 and 2025 period because we have the Brazilian market with lower sales because energy price is very low. Today, the Brazilian energy matrix is made of 60% from water, hydropower plants.

When the reservoirs are full because we had a very high rainy season, the price of the energy falls down. Because of that, since the second half of 2022 until now, we also have high interest rates, which causes the rate of returns for wind power projects to be very compressed. In practical times, developers install less turbines. Given this scenario and the global interest rate scenario, we see that the demand for this industry is relatively low in 2024 and 2025. However, the entire world is paying attention to that and sensitive to that, especially the large countries such as the United States, China, and India, because people realize that we need to do more in order for this demand to resume its growth.

There was a review in Europe, and the IRA, with a large investment being made in the United States in the renewable energy, $400 million. So this will increase demand. So forecasts in the U.S., for example, 6 gig of wind energy were installed in 2023 in the United States. And that is expected to go to 18-21 gig within five years. So as of 2028, 2029, we'll install 20 gig in the United States. That's almost tripling the amount of wind energy. In Europe today, 17 gig. In less than five years, this figure is expected to reach 30 gig. In India, 3 gig were installed last year. Of everything that's been granted and sold so far, India will install within the next five years around 10 gig per year.

If you look at the share price of Suzlon, that's the largest developer, integrator of wind turbines in India, it was being negotiated at INR 5 and now INR 40. So this provides a very high visibility and a positive one for an entire industry in the middle and long range. I'm talking middle range, let's say, up to five years. So this installation of wind turbines will increase a lot in the next five years. When you say that the U.S. will install 20 giga, when you talk about demand, you have to talk about one year, one and a half years. So you're talking about commissioning that. You have to install the complex, the blades, produce the blades. So when we say that within five years, the U.S. will install 20 giga, this demand will pull from Aeris two years and to other providers as well.

So our vision of the business remains very positive. All shareholders of the control all the controlling shareholders remain very positive with this industry. And this is an important moment we're going through. This is a major opportunity to adapt and consolidate our structure to profit and benefit from this growth. We are receiving several questions about the US market, exports, and Alexander, we'll talk about that. Hello. Well, as I ended up talking a little bit more this last question I answered, but what do we see? The major opportunity we see for Aeris in the next five years, if we join the US market and the European market in 2023, it's been a market of 22-23 giga. And this market will amount to 50 giga within five years.

So 50 giga market in which there will be tariff barriers, especially regarding China, which is the largest producer of wind energy worldwide. So there will be a demand for wind energy in the next 5 years that will go from 20 giga per year to 50 giga per year in which there will not or rather, there will be a restriction against Chinese turbines. So there will be a major export opportunity to Europe and to the United States. And I'm not even considering Latin America that will continue with 5-6 giga per year of installations. Brazil tends to have a weaker market in 2024, 2025, resuming demand in 2026. But there's Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico. In all these countries, Aeris is competitive and has access to all these markets. Obviously, our focus is in the United States and the European market.

So those markets will go from current 22-23 gig to something close to 50 gig. We are ready to capture that demand. Again, we have ongoing conversations with current customers and new customers to export to Europe and the United States. We're also studying the possibility of having local production in the United States. We know that there is a major benefit for local production of blades in the U.S. But today, I do have room within Aeris to manufacture those blades in-house. First, we'll prioritize exports. What we cannot sell with exports, then we'll study a possible manufacturing in the U.S. market as well as in the European market. They're both strategic for us. This is what we envisage for the next five years. The next question comes from Mateus from Grupo SOMA.

He still was seeing net cash flow from operating activities that's negative. Is there an expectation from this scenario to be reverted? Hello, Mateus. Just giving you an explanation. When we look purely at cash coming from operations, there is positive cash flow also, almost. It's positive and also release of working capital. This will improve when revenue goes down. There are some operating activities, operating expenses that will be sold in the end of the year. So this operating part is positive. When you consider the cost of capital with operations, it will be negative. This is what we're saying. Until we equalize this capital structure, we'll always have this situation. We do expect that by the end of the year, everything will be solved. This is our expectation. So this ends the Q&A session. I would like to turn the floor to Mr.

Alexandre Negrão for his final remarks. Thank you, Laís. So again, I would like to thank you all for attending this conference call. We remain confident working to adapt the company to the new reality of the market. It is clear. We've seen in the news, and all of you are aware that the industry is going through a challenging year in 2024 and 2025. What we must do is to prepare the company to face this moment. So both myself and Azevedo made it clear today that we are adapting the company in its operational part as well as the capital structure. We are doing our homework and therefore will be ready to capture this growth and to increase the market share and grow with the market in the next five years.

We remain optimistic with our projections and remain confident that Aeris is very well positioned to capture this growth that the world will have in wind turbines. I would like to thank you again for your presence and wish you a good day. Thank you. Thank you, Alexandre. Aeris conference call has now ended. We thank you all for attending.

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