Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It is a great joy to welcome you here. Our guests that are here in person, and also those who are connected online. Welcome to the third edition of the Auren Day. As you all know, safety is a priority for Auren. If you are here, please pay attention to the emergency exits on your right-hand side. We also know that your time is precious. This morning we want you to leave this place more confident in this portfolio that was built by means of planning, asset development, partnerships, and acquisitions, as you just saw in the video. The video also reminded us that Auren is the third biggest energy generator in Brazil, with a diversified portfolio in solar, wind, and hydropower. It is the top energy trader in Brazil.
To speak about opportunities and challenges of the sector and how this combination of assets gives the business resilience, we're going to listen to Fábio Zanfelice, CEO of Auren. In the first part of the event, we're also going to have a special guest, Luiz Barroso, CEO of PSR, who's going to talk to Fábio about the perspectives of the sector. Next, you will be able to ask questions to Fábio and Barroso. If you are online, you can also ask questions. You can use the box that is on your screen. After a short break, our agenda continues with Mário Bertoncini, VP of Customers and Commercialization, to say how the Trader is adding value to our customers and delivering results. Then we're going to hear João Guillaumon, Daniel Marrocos, and Mateus Ferreira speak about the next steps in the integration process.
Finally, we're going to have another Q&A session with all of the Auren executives. Now, to kick off Auren Day 2025, I'm going to invite on stage Fábio Zanfelice, the CEO of Auren.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. How are you? Thank you for coming. I'd like to thank all of you who are online who are downloading too. It is a great honor to have you here in the third edition of our day. We started this event in 2023. We also had the 2024 edition. We usually held this event in March, but now we decided to hold it in the middle of the year, as you know. Here I'm going to share what we have been talking about over the past few years. I'm going to open here to make it easier for us to understand.
We'd like to speak about the sector in general, considering the present and the future. We reinforced a lot the complexity of the sector, anticipating the importance of having a diversified portfolio. In 2023, there was a big discussion about the modernization of the sector. When we saw a surplus of offer and we saw this expansion according to and the market wasn't expecting it in 2023, we started speaking about the rise of prices and intermittency. We're going to see this year the growing demand for flexibility. Now, 2025, we're not going into detail of the regulatory hyperactivity with the provisional measures. We have curtailments, many diverse movements in the sector. I'm going to leave that to Barroso. He understands more about it than me. Our idea is to understand the transformation of the sector going forward.
Despite the regulatory scenario and the current scenario, today we are focusing our attention more on renewable sources of energy, hydroelectric energy. We are seeing a structural shift in the sector that is probably more powerful than what we have seen over the past few years. I would like to reinforce that in this context, flexibility is the keyword that is going to drive the sector going forward. Here is the first piece of information: the scenario of the exaggerated offer of the sector is coming to its end. The scenario that we started observing in the mid-2010s when we had the auctions that led to the building of large hydroelectric plants, we had this oversupply of 30% and now there is a trend to decrease.
Just to explain the graph, red is the demand in Brazil in GW and the blue line is the physical guarantee of the whole sector. You're adding up all the offer of all hydroelectric plants. The first question is, does that scare you? Is this demand? No, we're just going to have an adjustment and it doesn't impact the scenario. GSF is a little bit more concerning. For us, according to our perspective, on average the company is under the market. In the context, the overall context doesn't put the company in a different situation. We can see that the offer was stationary up to 2030 and the growth of intermittency. Today it is maintained at 60% of controlled generation in the system and 40% on average of intermittent generation with its consequences that we're going to discuss later on.
The first thing is the system is more intermittent, accommodating the offer in the next few years. Here are the reasons for renewable sources. Both wind and solar are facing new challenges to be built: CapEx curtailment, the use of capital, and new challenges such as the hours and the end of the subsidy of discounts. We do not have this subsidy. Of course, we have some stock. Everybody has a big stock of these grants, but we're going to share how this expansion is going to happen according to these conditions. There are some benefits. We're going to see how we are going to build our project. The project had our forgiveness day. We had our renegotiation in MP 1.212 that gives more time for building the projects.
Pre-2022, the connection term is 90 months, going into operations in 2030, with a limit to the beginning of construction in October 2025. Everybody that adhered to 12 had to put a 5% guarantee in the investment of the project. As we can see, because of the curtailment, the contacts that do not have access to this connection will have access to it in 2030 because of restrictions. There are many conditions that will benefit the sector here. In fact, we have to start building and the access to the transmission. When we apply this filter to inventory and our grants in average GW, we have grants in 43 GW, 35 GW. They are not feasible. We either have to sell the projects or it is going to be difficult to implement. What we have is 14% in our stock that can receive the incentivized benefit.
We're going to see how this affects our expansion in the sector. Another important aspect here is disclosing that blue number on the top, how much our power capacity is coming in, which is not the blue. The blue talks to the graph that is below of how much energy is coming in. The first question is, Fábio, what about GD? GD is going to continue expanding. There are no limits for GD in the short term, and we don't think it is going to further expand GD capacity 4 GW this year in 2026. That represents one GW in energy because of the low supply capacity. We have another number that is associated with solar that contributes with 1.4. We take this power and transform that into energy.
We're going to have 10.1 in 2026, 2.7 in 2027, physical adjustments in hydroelectric plants, and then we're going to have further expansion in 2030. Another important factor we have to highlight is another transformation. We have thermoelectric plants in the sector. They are not going to be out of the offer and demand. Of course, they're going to be hired again, but they are going to come in as a power source of power. That's why you do not see a bigger backing in the system to turn that in capacity.
We received the information that most of the countries in the world, the market has basically two products, energy and capacity. Brazil still sells energy as energy, not as capacity. This is going to be transformed inevitably because of intermittency. Whether we want to or not, we're going to have capacity. I think we're not going to have a product that is going to be sold as capacity. We're going to pay and it's going to be expensive. Over here, part of the thermoelectric power plants are going to be hired and the ones that are going to be necessary as reserves for capacity. You're going to say, okay, Fábio, but the thermal power plant is there and there's no connection with the consumer, but it's going to be there, it's going to be available and it's going to generate. You're saying that the oversupply is not considering these power?
No, they do consider the system that these thermal power plants, they're going to have a high cost, so they have a price, but they're not going to dictate the price in the market. If we get a thermal power plant with BRL 1,000 per unit, they're only going to get the energy connected with BRL 1,000. You have to get to BRL 1,000 for it to start its operations. Automatically, if there is an elevation of the medium cost in the short term, if these thermal power plants have to be used. This is the first piece of information. That's the second piece of information actually. This surplus is going down and we are making the transformation, getting away from a model that is using the energy to a model that has energy and capacity.
We're going to continue selling energy the way we do, but there's going to be a component capacity that is going to be paid for and there will be an impact in the operations of the system. The other question that you may ask is, okay, great, what about the short term price? Over here we bring you the storage and the blue line and in the red line it's the PLD. It's the short term price. The short term price continues for a long time. We did this in 2024 when we had Auren Day. In 2024 we said the following. We had a system that is only increasing and what we see from now on is volatility. We're going to have periods with a low price, but we're going to have a change in behavior because of the intermittency, even with higher storage.
When we said this in March of 2024, where's Junior. Junior is the Trading Director. At the end of the day, he received a lot of memes through WhatsApp saying we were crazy and we were showing, you know, it was going to rain a lot and this price would remain for the rest of our lives. Yeah, so 60% or 66% of PLD. We got to BRL 481 a short time after, in October of 2024. Obviously, there was a condition in the system that was already known. Here in March, there was a smaller flow. We're going to talk a little bit about that. This peak happened. It was an abnormal condition. What we see now is that the reservoir is at 61% and the PLD, sorry, it's at 71% and the PLD is at BRL 327. Why?
That's the next transformation that we're talking about, that we're observing in the sector. We're going to explain what I mean. This is what happened last year. The dotted line is fluent natural energy and it's everything, all the flow that goes into the reservoirs in Brazil multiplied by what the power plants make. That's cubic meter converted into GW. This is the green line of what happened. In 2024, different from the other years, it rained less, especially here in the rainy period, where it's supposed to rain more. We had an exception and storage was about 66%. That was fine. It was not a problem initially. We were saying that it would still be an exception at the end of the year and the price would go up. That's what we said at the end of last year. What happened this year? Look how interesting.
Starting in the rainy season, that's exactly aligned with this year. Fantastic. The reservoir recovered very quickly. We came to March. There was a recession from ENA. The price exploded, BRL 327. The market decided to discuss this and say, oh, there's something wrong. The big change, which is another structural point that we wanted to bring you, starting in January of 2025, there was a change in the price formation in Brazil. We started using a hybrid methodology that defers the different power plants and brings more representativeness to the operation of the system. When the price went to BRL 327, the market said this model is wrong. It has a lot of aversion. We're going to have to review the parameters because the market is not going to be able to take this price. We were questioned in one of the conferences. It was a panel about this.
What we said was the following: March is extremely atypical. We wanted to know about PLD when we go into the rainy period in the south. That's exactly what happened. Although ENA was still shifting below PLD, what happened when EAR improved, PLD went down. This is the representation of this model, which does represent the prices better, and it is responding the way it should. The question is, what is the difference between 2024 and 2025 when we consider the flow of the reservoirs? If we get the accumulated flow, it rained, and ENA, in this wet period from October to March, and this is 26% of PLD. We see better prices after this. This is another structural change. We are going to talk about what happened to the market because of it.
This was enough for us to be able to observe this change in the operational standard of the system. This is the system operation in the first quarter, in the first half of 2023, PLD at the base, very little volatility. We are at 72% of generation in the hydroelectric power plants, 12% in wind energy, 6% in solar energy. In 2025, PLD was 148 average, 62% of 20 volatility, and then a deformation of this price curve. Once again, the whole discussion came back about the price per hour, the impact on the project, what happens with solar energy in this scenario. Hydroelectric power plants begin to come in as something important in terms of flexibility. From 2023 we go to 2025, and the system, only because of the pricing, completely changed our perception of the type of operation the system would have.
A year ago we did not have this. It's a little bit of what we have highlighted with regard to the portfolio. The complexity is higher, there's intermittency, there's a greater demand for flexibility. Whoever is more flexible wins the game. You increase volatility of the price, and these three things, at least, we are going to put it to one factor, which is in the portfolio that addresses this sort of transformation in the sector. That's why since 2022 we talk about the importance of having a diverse portfolio and having the three sources. If we look at this sort of behavior, the first perception we have in the hydroelectric power plants is the best asset in the world, and solar energy is the worst part. Wind energy, people think it's 50/50.
I have the hydroelectric power plant, which is the best in the world because I have the modulation. In the middle of the year, I reduce the generation in the hydroelectric power plant. That's when the price goes up. I have to complement that, and then wind energy comes in to complement it. We have negative correlation between wind and electric energy generation in Brazil. Solar energy also complements, and it's a problem because of the time, but the prices are still high and it's a more predictable generation. We have hydroelectric power plants with better predictability in terms of generation, and wind energy is intermittent. The profile of each source of energy makes the combination of all three the best thing. It is not definitely one source or another. We have the other question: what's going to happen with the supply and demand balance?
What does the generation look like with all of these projects going on according to the law? It's compulsory, without any planning. Obviously, we are completely against removing the EPE or removing this planning from the sector. This should be done by the Ministry, by EPE. We don't agree that through the Congress there will be interference in the expansion of the sector. We bring you a little bit of our view with regard to what is being discussed. These are the effects of the law of the offshore, and it's in the law what we see distributed over time and the impact of each of these changes over time. First of all, the expansion of the GD, which is going to go to 0.7 GW average until 2030. The coal thermal power plants at 0.3 in the south.
PROINFA, we were talking about our PROINFA balance because these are projects, especially with biomass, PCH, and wind energy that do not leave the system. They're still part of the system. In our balance, we already had this supply being extended, of course not as PROINFA, but competing in the market, the hiring of PCHs. This is still the bill about offshores. There was a change last Friday, and then 2.7 for PCH. Wind energy is very small in the south, and the thermoelectric power plant is with three GW. If we put this in a timeline, this does not cause a change. It doesn't really change the scenario of a reduction of supply over time. Once again, we're not saying that.
This is.
Planning the way it should be, just looking at this scenario and the first conclusion that we can make about supply, this goes down over time. These are projects and most of them come in starting in 2030. They don't provide an immediate impact in the operation of the sector. Besides, another point that is important to observe is we also have discussions about connection until 2030. If you have a project, you have to check if it has connection or transmission. There are the environmental permits, there's a whole process for this project to start its operation. It's not going to be from one day to the next, it's going to be diluted over time. Even with the effects, the MP effects, we don't see exclusive supply. The price is affected, just like the thermoelectric power plants.
You have an idea about the price, but that's not going to dictate the price going down. There is flexibility. Flexibility also appears more in the future. If you have lots of thermoelectric power plants, you start checking if you really need that much capacity, because thermoelectric power plants are there and that's, you know, flexible or not. You start reviewing the need for capacity in the system. All of this has to be seen holistically and it has to be distributed over time. The conclusion we come to about supply is that it's not 30% the way we saw it now in 2024, 2025. Right. To conclude with regard to prices in the long term, we bring the discussion of removing the compulsory effects of the measures and how they're going to look at the expansion in a competitive manner. All of you know this definition about LCOE.
It basically provides a break even with any kind of energy and it's a simple calculation. You get the amount of energy produced and we can see how much, and these are the costs and the premises for generations. Two things that have happened now, CapEx has gone up, especially after the pandemic. Wind energy has not reduced its cost anymore. It maintained almost a rupture of costs in the post-pandemic era. The capital cost, you know that better than I do, it also went up. There are other parameters, other concerns that came in. This goes into this assumption causing an impact on price and something else that was not considered in most of the projects in the market. These are the hedges that are necessary throughout the project, especially for solar energy. Very little talk was said about hedges two years ago, for example.
This is also a component that has to be part of the feasibility cost for projects. We did another calculation. We got two scenarios for solar power generation and wind power assets. One with a discount for transmission, and these are the projects, six giga projects that can still be built. We did the same thing over here for solar power generation. We have wind power assets CapEx of BRL 7.81 million MW with a discount and then 12% discount, and then in solar power generation BRL 2.8 million and it's 12% of discount. We still have our calculations and our projects and we did another price list. If I have wind power assets with an average with a capacity of 50%, which is a good capacity factor, the price would be BRL 256. If it is exceptional for 60% it would be BRL 214.
If you put solar power generation, that was the most competitive source and I put all of the hedges, we got to BRL 282 and BRL 252 is the capacity factor. Good wind power assets are more competitive than the best, which is solar power generation because of the hedges. The same calculation was made with taking away the discount. Remember that the discount is the generator that pays half of the transmission. In this condition over here, the discount of the TUST and the new projects, they have to pay 100% of transmission. We got to BRL 232 and BRL 280 and BRL 284 and BRL 319 for solar power generation, BRL 233 and BRL 280 for wind power assets. This is a discussion that over time we had, you know, we talked a lot, we had lots of conferences about this.
When we said, okay, the marginal cost for expansion in the system is changing, it's becoming more expensive to expand the system. This is what we see over here. If we work with the best solar power generation in the long term, it costs BRL 284 per MWh. The best hydroelectric power plant, BRL 233. When we talk about conventional, which is BRL 250, I know that, you know, we always said it was BRL 150 and because of inflation and it's always BRL 150. That's another structural change that we see from now on. It's not going to happen tomorrow. It's going to happen when we need it and when we start the expansion of the system. The expansion happens three or four years before. We're going to start this movement gradually.
The only thing, and I'm going to say this to you in a minute, there are two processes happening at the same time to make the price accelerate faster, not only because of the expansion cost. To check the consistency, if we take for example the discount and we get the two best projects, the best solar project and the best wind energy project, I would have a cost of BRL 214 and BRL 252. I'm going to send energy to my consumer today. There's a discount on his site and that represents BRL 45 per MWh on average. The consumer is noticing a price which is BRL 169 and BRL 207 in the free market in PPA, and that would be an average of BRL 188. Is there a project at this price? No, because the consumer is going to check who wants to make a contract in the short term.
There's protection against inflation, that's what they want. That's where the self-production model comes in. Historically, this is a model that has brought greater expansion. The same self-production product, you have BRL 20 which is the end incentive and BRL 45 is for an A-4. It's the average consumers, the large consumers, they have a bigger tension, they pay less and the discount is smaller as well. We observe a benefit of BRL 20 and a benefit of self-production of an average of BRL 60. What we actually see is the same price at the end of consumer, it's BRL 154 and BRL 172, so an average of BRL 100. That's why self-production is expanding and it has made the project leave the paper because it is competitive and we have limitations, of course, but the expansion of the system happened because of this pricing that makes the consumer actually take on the long-term effect.
In the market, even if it's BRL 150, they have a hedge which is almost natural because of inflation. This is the model with the discount. In those projects that entered before 2022, they were approved and they have stock. Now let's go to real life without discount.
We take the same project, we take away the discount in generation, and we look at 233 and 284, the cheapest and the most expensive consumers. They do not have that wire benefit. If they're going to build to have a PPA, the customer will have to pay BRL 233 and BRL 284. If you have a big trader that is very active, you can roll that over time and you can have shorter contracts. Most projects need long-term contracts, and consumers should pay this price in a safe harbor. We're still going to have self-production. Let's look at self-production. Even with self-production, we take away the benefit, 65 minimum. The customer's perception is going to be at 173, 224, with an average of BRL 200 . 173 is the best project with a 60% capacity.
Consumers are not going to make a self-production to pay the same price if they find on the market the same price. Remember that self-production requires for society an arrangement, the transaction, the costs, et cetera. If consumers find something about BRL 200 , if they find something about BRL 180, BRL 190, they prefer to sign a contract on the market. Obviously, these contracts are not 10-year contracts, but contracts with a perception of the cost. Especially if they see that the short-term costs are increasing, they're going to have longer contracts. We used to speak about at Auren D ays that we had to show what we are doing in terms of long-term. You say we still have six GW to coming generation. There are some days, and we're going to go through that. Is this going to be in the future or not? How far away is that?
We don't think it is too far away because, again, looking at our long-term price graph and ENA, we have our reservoir at 70% for July. It is very rare to see a reservoir at 70% in July with price between BRL 180 and BRL 200 . What is going on in the market? These are the GCD curves: September, October, and November. Last year, before the hybrid, even in October, when the price was at BRL 480 , the market looked at BRL 157 per GWh . Look at what happened after the hybrid NEWAVE. We had 327 in February and March. The market got scared, was surprised. We can see a volatility in the first year. In May, it hit BRL 360 . Today, it came down again to 250 because of this. I like to call your attention to this part here.
Even with this return, the long-term prices have changed levels. We can see here in terms of the last three months of the year compared to the first month of 2025, a 26% increase and 10% in 2029, which aligns at least the prices here, a plus two and a three with a range, with a short-term range. If this scenario continues, the convergence to these prices will happen earlier than what we imagine to make new projects happen. Are we going to have floor PLD? Yeah, if things go well. We might have 350 in the second semester. Why? Because the structure of the system has changed. I'd like to share this with you because that's what we have seen on the market and how this is going to impact the impact this is going to have in the long term.
To wrap up before I give the floor to Barroso, this is some information from a New Energy Outlook from Bloomberg. These are the world numbers. There are a lot of things, if you read the report, as we said, the word for the electric sector is flexibility. This graph shows where this flexibility is going to come from over the time. Of course, a lot is coming from EVs. Brazil is not. This is not the scenario in the short term in Brazil, but there is a lot to explore, which is the demand and the batteries. I'd like to call your attention again to flexibility.
How important this is going to be in any company, not only in the energy sector, to have the capacity to navigate a more volatile market with higher average prices, with more operational demands, but also with opportunities on the customer side to add value with something that we are not still using. Mario is going to speak about our utilization product that is connected to this flexibility in terms of services to consumers. That's what I had to speak. I had 20 minutes and now I'm going to give five more minutes to Barroso. I'd like to invite Barroso to the stage to speak about the rest of the problems. I'm going to ask all the questions. I picked up some questions in the company. We don't have to introduce Barroso. Barroso is the top authority in energy in Brazil and in other parts of the world too.
He is recognized all over the world. We wanted to have Barroso here because when we speak from the point of view of the company, that would be barren to speak about a more structured view in the short term. Barroso is going to explain, to give us a better explanation of what's going on. Barroso, what do you think about the law 1300 and what are the implications of it?
Barroso cannot speak about anything different than that because most analysts that are here, I meet with them very often and I ask them, don't you get tired of Barroso? We have talked to the whole market, given this high number of laws. I do not escape debate, because we don't know about the future. Trying to build a vision, right?
I accepted your invitation and I'm very happy to be here with you guys and on this Auren day to have a structured conversation about the sector. First of all, I'd like to greet you for your presentation. It was wonderful and I agree with you on many aspects. I have shared this vision with the market. I also like to comment that a differentiated factor for us to navigate these more and more uncertain seas in the sector, which is our analysis, which are our analysis. The price, for example, is BRL 150. If you ask what is going to be the number next year, and then you say, I think BRL 150. We are not living in a world of guesses. We have to deal with the numbers. Of course, there's going to be some background noise. You have to consider that too.
Of course, when I left the government from the EPE, accepted the decision to become counselor for Votorantim Energia because I believe in our conversation we had with João Schmidt and I left that in practice, what you showed here, discussion based on numbers, premises, scenarios that can lead to a good discussion that has to be taken, based on risks. Of course, there are no easy decisions to make. You are here to build together with everyone else this way. The law 1300 was born from a project that has a very good objective, good elements, and of course, many controversial ones. It gives us an opportunity to the sector, which is a good opportunity, the quality of the rapporteur of this law. I think this sector is lucky to have Congressman Fernando Coelho Filho, who was in Petrolina.
He agreed to leave his comfort zone and take up this challenge. We have to recognize him for his willingness to help the sector build something. Fernando is a very reasonable person. It is very easy to talk to him. He understands that what has to change that is in this bill of law, what can be improved. I believe that if Fernando has some space, has some room to work, we don't know about that, because the work doesn't depend only on Fernando. I think that this bill of law can make good progress. What is going to happen with it in Brazil, in the capital. For Fernando, for me, this bill of law is going to be discussed and voted. The terms are very short. It's going to expire in December and the Congress is going to have one month to make a definition.
We also have the 1304 bill of law. I believe that the contents of this bill of law, what they combined with the bill of law 1300, and I believe these would guide the adjustments in the sector. We have the cancellation of the approval of the law done in different ways. We have longer timing for bill of law 1304. We had the opposite happening. The contents of bill of law 1300 will migrate to 1304. We don't know who the rapporteur of bill of law 1304 is going to be. Fernando is the rapporteur of it. If it's not Fernando, this will require more attention. I expect, Fábio, that there is going to be discussed and voted by September 17th. We all, as a sector, will have to take our proposals to the rapporteur, because the rapporteur wants to talk.
He understands that this bill is a chance to create an environment for companies that have a capital and a long-term vision for Brazil, not a short-term revision. There are some controversies in this bill of law. We can discuss them if you want. I think this is the overview that I would like to share with you. If you want to go ahead and speak about the controversies. The controversies, this bill has some invisible topics that were less discussed, that are good value leverages. Before we speak about the problems, I'd like to speak about that this bill creates the possibility for Brazil to discuss flexibility. This is important. It is important because Brazil is changing its energy mix, as you showed. By the end of this year, we expected that CNPE discusses criterion for flexibility in Brazil. What does that mean?
We're going to incorporate the dimension of planning compared with the risk of flexibility. We want to shield ourselves again. We want to hire and pay for the generation that meets that supply criteria, those supply criteria. Of course, we're going to have an open public consultation, but CNPE wants to discuss this at the end of the year. This bill, legally speaking, brings this possibility that value leverages are created. People are not discussing about it too much, but it is laying some interesting topic. The elephants in the room are who is going to pay the BRL 4 billion for the social fees and who is going to fund this?
The Ministry did the proposal to cancel the discount with a legal interpretation that says that if you have a contract that is not yet signed, that right is not an acquired right, rather it is an expectation of a right. The right is going to be acquired by your generator once you sign the contract, or else it's just an expectation. This argument, of course I'm not a lawyer, but this is an argument that will be discussed in the courts. The government has bought a ticket for a legal discussion. When I was part of the government and once Fernando was the Minister, we discussed this matter. It was back in 2017, 2016-2017, and this problem of canceling, there was a proposal of canceling this discount in the consumption. That was a topic at the time, just like now.
At the time we said this is going to generate confusion and this is not fair with who has the project, because there are many grants that say that you have the right to the discounts. There is a discussion involving the fairness of the project. What we proposed back then was to maintain the discounts for the existing grants and cancel the discounts to everyone, which is the genesis of the bill of law that we discussed. That's how we thought, that's what Fernando had in mind back in 2016. Now it seems reasonable to me, again, I'm not Fernando. I don't know what Fernando wants, what he doesn't want, but it seems reasonable to assume that this should be one line of thought of our rapporteur. I don't think that this subject is going to remain as is.
I think the Executive Branch is going to put a lot of pressure for us to get some subsidy cuts. What does that mean in Bill 1314? I think creating some blockages in the CDE, I don't know. If this blockage is created for BRL 100 billion, if you create a blockage comparing the CDE, you create an incentive to reduce some costs in the CDE where there is still something to work on. It needs some political workarounds to make it happen, which is the scope of the discussions of the amendments. If you believe that we can build a good project, I tend to think that this discount in the consumption installment is going to be revised. The way for us to get some money to fund this CDE was going to put some pressure on the CDE to get some reduction in a few components.
Of course, many of you do not know, but originally the plan of the government to fund the BRL 4 billion of the social fee was to take this money from the social fund that comes from the Pre-Salt from our oil reserves, which would be beautiful, use it to fund energy for low-income, low-income people here. Fábio, making a bet that this discount is going to be revised in relation to what is today in the Bill 1300, but how we're going to expect some discussions from Fernando. Knowing where Fernando came from, what discussions we had in CP 33 PL 414, we can have a good guess of where this is going to.
A hotter topic now, curtailment. Just to clear up all the questions, what are the solutions for the generators and where does curtailment go? There are some generators that are going to have financial problems. Right. If you believe that the planning of transmission today, the way it's been done, it is okay to solve this problem and in how much time? I'm going to divide my answer into three. The curtailment solution, what I think is very close to happening. Of course, yes, it's close to, has been close to happening for a while now. The way that this sector is dealing with this is publishing a measure that says that all curtailment that the Europeans call the grid curtailment, which is the electrical one. We call it four different things: electrical, reliability, availability, there's four different names.
They take all of that and they throw it in the image as from the publication of this bill. Then you have the discussion of the energy for the future. These two discussions, in my mind, go to these provisional measures and they're going to be amendments. The government has something about the past because ANEEL was able to take away the bill from this payment and the government, the injunction actually. The TCU is not going to, the court is not going to find it funny. I'm going to recognize the payment of everything in the past for everyone. Yeah, but you're getting the injunction against it, so why are you going to recognize the past? The government needs to bring the generators to the table to build some sort of agreement where the injunctions can come out so that you can discuss the past.
I believe that this discussion is going to provisional measures. The question is why do we have this? Why is this not signed? I really don't know. I have made some jokes, they're not very good. Basically, to sign this ordinance you need to have your butt on the chair and put your fingers on the keyboard, you know, of course. What we have in Brasilia now, the institutional confusion that we have, it removes the focus from these people that are able to solve it, so they don't solve it. The indication of Secretary Gentil for the board of ANEEL places a little more pressure on this subject, because Gentil is technically very able and he has been leading these discussions.
If the TUST from Gentil happens until August, the sector has about one month to be able to get a little bit more from the Ministry in this injunction. That's my opinion. Now, when you think about the discussion of the provisional measure, you know, we have to deal with energy. There are several proposals on the table. They want to consider a bundle for the consumer or for the generator. There's a proposal, and I'm the only person in Brazil who likes it, to have an auction to decide who's going to be cut first, who's going to be cut last. This is a discussion that is going to the provisional measure. Now in the operation, I think the transmission, Fábio, there are things that can be done or studied. For example, the quantity of inflexible generation that we have in the system.
I think there is inflexibility in terms of hydroelectric energy. And could look at that and do less production, minimum production during the day, bigger during the night. It's not for everyone that you can do that. You have to respect the socio-environmental permit. In some power plants you can do that. We have seen that a day with a very low demand, the ONS has operated the system with minimum hydroelectric energy production. It's smaller, so there's minimum production. That's different and different on different days. It shows that maybe there's something that can be taken there. In the thermoelectric power plants, you can also have some financial agreement. Physically there's something that can be done now in terms of transmission and planning. I think ONS has to start thinking about the operation, doing it in a different way.
For example, the capacity of transmission in the copper cables varies according to the temperature throughout the day. The ONS could be a little more proactive, depending on the temperature of the day. If you could send a little more, a little less, you can move that. Like the discussion of reliability in the planning, of course, the system is not going to be planned to have zero curtailment. That's not how it works. The amount of transmission that we have now, especially the investments in compensation, those that are synchronous, they're also going to improve, but this is investment for two or three years. Until then, what we have to do is operational.
We have to reduce the minimum resolution and then work with less transfer of energy, depending on the temperature, and trying to improve, I was going to say to reduce conservative operation, but improve the operational ambition of ONS. It could be more proactive and not as reactive to try and get more from the grid to be able to maximize reliability. Therefore, you would as a consequence reduce curtailment. A softer question: evolution of demand. The data center, green hydrogen maybe will be in over time, but what you see in terms of changes in the demand that can help the sector and curtailment over time and also bringing more consumption and then optimizing the demand of the system. Fábio, first of all, it's the demand in Brazil. Brazil is electrifying itself, that's the truth.
Not only through the increasing use of air conditioning, which is the cheapest measure to mitigate adverse events and climatic change. This is really happening, and that's why we have increases in the point of consumption and general electrification. We see in our customers that some industries have more electrical products. There's a phenomenon, so it's a little invisible, but it's happening, which is electrification of the automotive fleet. This is something that I didn't believe in a while ago, but I think the cars and the custom cars are cheaper. The technology that is coming in, the cars from BYD, they have brought a little bit of this to electrification. This is what we have today in immediate terms besides electrification, because of the revenues and companies and electrical cars, there's temperature. Besides that, we have our neighboring countries.
Argentina needs energy, Uruguay needs energy, and Brazil could be a little more ambitious and create fixed commitments for exporting this demand. This demand is represented and we can increase the consumption in Brazil. I think there's an agenda for an hour, a year and a half for temperature and air conditioning, electric cars and then new things, data centers. Data centers, we have worked with many of the people there. When you make the calculation, if everything works out, Brazil until 2030 would have a capture of about 13 to 40 GW of data centers. That's a lot. In our view, what we're going to have in terms of data centers is going to be similar to 1.5 GW, more or less, if we're able to get that. You know, that's basically because of connection to the network. There's also an issue because of the optic fiber cable location.
You know, there's potential there. I think we have potential. Now the dream of more aggressive electrification, you using green hydrogen, I think that's later on. It's not for now, but in the horizon of the short term horizon, that's basically what we have. I think we talked a little bit about this, about distributed generation, and then we have electrification and distributed generation actually absorbs this. I think there's a change in behavior as well. If you have a rooftop solar panel in your house today, you have less perception that now energy is free. That definitely changes the standard. What do you think in PSR in the following sense, because we're seeing the extension to GD1 and to connect to your answer, we can see that remote is less competitive over time. Rooftop is an energy motor and it increases the supply.
Now, considering that we have the reduction of the benefit over time, the 15% rate per year and the consumer starts paying. How do you see the stock of GD over time? Is it going to be reduced in terms of its attraction? At some point it will land, it's not attractive anymore. You still have GD coming out, but not in the same way we had before. How do you see this? That's exactly like what you just said in your last phrase. We have representativeness, we have expansion that is going to be limited. The GD is going to be according to the consumption, so rooftop. The great question about GD is what's going to happen with the batteries.
If the batteries are very cheap and they become a commodity and they're going to be delivered at a very low price, then GD is going to come back into the game. Fábio, we have one question which is interesting. What is happening around the world today is that the GDs that were installed in many countries very many years ago, they are coming to the end of their useful life. What has been seen in many countries where GD increased a lot to American states like California, Arizona, in Spain, in the public sector, we're observing that the useful life of many of these solar panels is beginning to happen or has happened in many places before the project specified by the manufacturer, because exposure to wind, erosion, sun, rain, and this has created a new limit for the project data and these projects.
You know, when you get to the end of the useful life in many countries, these incentives don't exist anymore. Replacement has not been one for one. I think in the case of Brazil, GD1 with an incentive until 2045, that's hard. I think incentive is so good that you can put three or four panels, right? Three or four GDs because the benefit pays for them. For other GDs, I think this is going to generate caution from the consumer and I think it's going to be a niche. There is going to be a greater reduction in our view. What may be until 2030, what could change is the battery and GD. With battery and everything, with a battery, this begins to grow. That's a niche and it's definitely a niche in the market. Not everybody's going to do it.
It's people who have resources and revenues to be able to pay for it. Okay, I'm going to connect to what you just said, which is the battery. How do you see the market of battery connecting with what happens to the world and in Brazil? Regulation is aligned, is it not aligned? What are we missing? What do we need to evolve to be able to have this market in Brazil? Fábio, today in Brazil, the battery, you know, it's part of the game and it's a simple way, it's a rustic way of thinking about it. It is in the game when it replaces the diesel generator at the consumer. For example, you're a consumer, you're a shopping center and you have a generator for a backup to modulate consumption. There's unit, variable unit cost, okay?
Then you put the battery, you take it away and you put a battery for this function, which is as a backup and there's reliability. The battery today in Brazil, in the grid distributors, it has had a business model. Everything from then on, you know, the battery with solar energy, battery as a resource for arbitrage. There's no money on the table for that. Now in Brazil, there's no differential in terms of a price. What is the government going to do? We hope one day that this auction for batteries, it will basically put some money on the table to be able to pay some batteries to be installed in the system. Then providing this storage service and this service with this business model and the auction for the battery capacity. This is something that CTEEP did to put batteries as a transmission asset.
It's a great name, battery, as you know, grid assets. Then you have Grid Enhancing Technologies. Basically that's a battery. The name is beautiful, right? It's there to operate when you have availability of the transmission system. It's really simple. That's what the government wants to do with generation. This movement can have a positive effect of bringing to Brazil the manufacturers. Today you have manufacturers, you have Huawei, you have WEG, you have the Chinese. Huawei is looking at that. When you start putting money on the table for batteries, I think this adoption of curve in Brazil can actually start shifting. Also, because the government, you know, maybe it will get excited and start doing lots of auctions. You don't need auction for consumption, but for batteries there is space for that. I think there is a role for batteries.
I also think that the future of solar power generation is going to do a pairing with battery. Solar and battery, and battery is what we have in Brazil in the Provisional Measure 300. It's going to change, can change the tariffs to provide an incentive for the consumer. That's very good. California and the United States created the Net Metering, which is 3.0. This is exactly what it does. Solar energy has grown more with batteries. That's part of the game. Of course, batteries today, the best batteries have storage capacity of four to six hours. The true battery that we're going to need is the battery that is able to transfer MWh from one day to the next, from one week to the next. It's not the physical battery, at least now, it is the water battery or the battery of a reversible power plant.
This is from the hydroelectric power plants, these batteries. Great. Just the last question before going on to the audience. This whole change we've had, do you think that we had adjustments? How do you see this change and the benefits and what we have to adjust from now on? What do you think? How can we evolve? Okay, I'm going to answer with several hats on. Just for everybody to understand what this beauty is in terms of the hybrid method. It's a mathematical model, NEWAVE, that represented the system through equivalent power plants. It did not see Porto Primavera. It looked at a big power plant called Sudeste that represented the whole hydroelectric power plant in the Southeast. NEWAVE had four large hydroelectric power plants: North, South, Southeast, and West. There was some equivalence. There are other models that do not use this operation.
The hybrid model looks at the Porto Primavera power plants during two years, and then during three years it goes back to create an equivalent system. The Research Center CEPEL on Electrical Energy chose to, instead of operating the system in an individual manner for five years, operate two years, and then there's an equivalence after. That is a separate discussion. Of course, in this hybrid model there are improvements in terms of wave. Using the hat of somebody who's looking at prices, this hybrid method brings better information about the operation, about the price, and what NEWAVE had. With my hat as a mathematician, I think the hybrid model could evolve to an individualized model. That is also a separate discussion. The hybrid NEWAVE, when it brings a more individualized model, brings new factors for pricing.
The system becomes a little more nervous because the physical system is more nervous. There are other discussions that overlap this hybrid model. Today the hot topic of the sector is the risk aversion parameters. We have to move those because these parameters are badly calibrated. These are the parameters that are badly calibrated, or is it the NEWAVE and hybrid models that are reflecting the operation a little better? Maybe that's why these risk aversion parameters allow this to exacerbate. These are discussions that get mixed up in my view. I think the path for these models is going to be for us to individualize, and with this individualization, it's going to bring improvement in terms of price.
There is a discussion in parallel in all this model conversation, which is pricing according to supply and the bid, and how can you do that to be able to get to the PLD? We think that it is becoming bigger. We think it's later on, until we get there, we're just going to delimit the mathematical models a little bit more. What has been, in my opinion, Fábio, the great dilemma of the mathematical models, and I think this is something that you talked about in your presentation and your team says this very well, it's the discussion about climate. The mathematical models today assume that the history of water that came to the reservoirs is a good representation of what is coming. We know that what's coming from now on is something that is not necessarily something that preserves the historical parameters.
To factor the climatic modeling on top of the energy modeling, that is a differential aspect that generates value. The models will have to evolve towards this as well. This hydrological component is the component that you showed very well. Fábio's presentation has a very interesting message, because I am from the time, and Fábio is from the time when the reservoir is at 60% of storage, you know, you could have 80% of flow and the price was still the same. Fábio shows that the reservoir at 60% of storage in Auren gets 85%, and the price is a little strange.
Why?
Because at the time that we believed in 60% and today it's 60% of storage. With the volatility, that has changed a lot. The climatic variable is definitely making a big difference in the management of these resources. I think we're moving to a new world with a lot of volatility. This is a European concept. It's the price that is captured by the generation assets. There's going to be a component that is going to be even more nervous because of all these variables.
Great, Luiz. Now I'm going to invite you. I'm going to invite Luiz, another Luiz, to be part of our conversation. Thank you, Fábio. Thank you, Barroso. Let's open for Q&A from the guests. If you would like to ask a question, raise your hand to get a mic and you can use the box if you are online. Please state your name and the institution you are representing so that everyone can know who is asking the question. Here is Felipe, who wants to ask the first question.
Good morning. How are you, Fábio? How are you, Luiz? I'd like to ask about the part that you showed, LCOE. You said something interesting about the thermal volume that we are going to lose and how we are trying to rehire this and the LCOE composition.
You also mentioned the hour modulation, the spread, and 8 GW that we are losing, that we're going to lose by the end of the decade. Of course, we're going to rehire it at a higher cost. I'd like to understand, in a few years, we'll be speaking a lot more about the capacity, capacity of value generation by modulation than the price that we are using today. The discussion of DC, if we're going to have a generation focused on the lowest cost on that day of the operation, of course, this will require flexibility, right? We will see this price rising. I'd like to understand what you think about it, looking at the future, especially considering modulation.
Exactly. We speak a lot about flexibility and the value is going to be more on flexibility than on anything else. There is an important detail.
Everything over time will create arbitrage and this will open space for more technology. Barroso spoke about batteries. We do not have space for batteries yet to displace energy over time. Batteries that can store energy for days will have other functions. Of course, the most credible source of energy is thermal power plants. After hydroelectric power plants, we are going to have more flexible portfolios and these are going to be preferred over the other ones in hydroelectric generation, for example. Should this be charged by flexibility? Maybe at the time we thought if there is no change in price, yes, but if there is any sign of change in the prices, then we will have to reconsider because price will dictate the attributes of the energy generation. We have economic signs that are more aligned with what is necessary in the system.
On the other hand, we have other sources that are suffering more, such as solar power generation over time. I would like to reinforce that flexibility will be more valued, but more other technologies will be valued. We're going to speak about offer guided by the demand in one, two years. We'll have to be ready to this new reality. This is going to take time in terms of customer base and digitalization, and the companies will have to pay attention to the movements, to what's coming. It's a different scenario than what we saw five years ago because we said we're going to have long-term contracts, expansion projects back in the day. Barroso remembered this in 2016, the market didn't want to have reserve because that's how we could expand the system without assuming risk. That has changed a lot.
Flexibility will be worthwhile, but we'll have to pay attention to the technologies of the future because if we only use the current technologies, we won't be able to compete with the next coming technologies. We'll have to look at today and look at the future and the new technologies. I don't know if Barroso wants to add anything.
I mean.
I'd just like to add, regulatorily speaking, today we are very contaminated by the regulatory environment because everything is on the news. It doesn't have to be real news, it just has to be published. Then everybody is sharing everything through WhatsApp and everybody goes crazy. The physical system, the only law that Congress cannot change are the physics law, right? Physically speaking, the system will need a few things. We will need ramps, operational reserves, flexibility, upward and downward flexibility. This is going to be necessary and there is a discussion that is going to be discussed, that is going to be talked about in Congress. How are we going to charge for the physical infrastructure? This physical block will have to be yes or yes. What policymakers do is enabling these purchases to be made in a more efficient way.
If in the physical part of the system you are doing well, this is a good start. Of course, if you are bad on the physical part, then you will have to do the hedge. If your physical part is well, you can have a head start. This you'll have to work on to generate value. As for flexibility, many people think that you have flexibility only with thermal power plants or hydraulic power plants. No, you're going to have a little of batteries modulation, demand based. Of course, we will have to define how much of each one we'd like to have in terms of operation and define the commitments that they're going to require for generators. If you want a generator to get this commitment, you have to pay for that.
In terms of flexibility, I'm going to speak about thermal power plants because they're going to end in 2030. We're doing a ramp commitment and you have to comply with it, something that didn't exist. This is going to be the change and the service is going to generate value that way.
I think Victor has a question too. Okay, João, go ahead.
Hi, this is João from Citi. I'd like to ask two questions about the system. I came here a little late, but when you speak about LCOE for wind and solar, do they include curtailments or not? If not, how much? If you assume curtailments, now asking about what are the premises you're going to assume in the long term and when you're going to do your modulation. I'd like to hear about that from you.
About the GD growth, I'd like to understand despite we are looking at a scenario that is not stable. Do you think with the opening of the market is going to be relevant? If we open the market a lot, this is going to have a great impact or not. If this is going to seal competitiveness.
I'm going to answer the first one, the most difficult one I will leave for you. Thank you for your question. Yes, we're considering curtailment, higher number in the first years and then some residual curtailment that was going to stay with solar and then hedge for area modulation. We are considering these two components now.
Yes, the opening of the market is going to be a sort of source of pressure for GD. The sooner this pressure comes, the more we suffer.
GD now, customers who want to do GD, they will want to do a lot of. They will want to do a lot GD. That is going to come from empowerment. In terms of economic, the free energy market can deal with that. Curtailment, we have our hypothesis. We think that working on the price is absolutely correct. What Fábio is showing is that it is a revisited all-in, which is a global trend. This morning I was looking at a global forum, how you are, how prices balance when you put everything in the all-in, but still renewable energy sources of energy are cheaper in Brazil than thermal energy, which is another interesting discussion.
Carolina Carneiro from Safra, this is a continuation of João's question.
In this calculation of the cost that you are including the price PLD price per hour, this is more esoteric to us because you don't have contact with these components of the market. If you could please cover about the range of this hedge. This is going on for a while, so I suppose you can quantify it. Just for us to understand about why the level of hedge in that 250 and 280. Luiz said about some operational measures that ONS can do. At the same time, I think ONS is hesitant. It chose to increase the transmission limit only at night. I'd like to understand the measures that you understand that would be comfortable to work with in ONS and how this in fact helps for the final result because apparently this is growing more.
We are at about 20% to 30% of cuts and I don't know how much these measures will help the whole scenario.
Carol, it's interesting because we are conducting a lot of analysis and for each scenario we have a spread and it'll have to have a hedge for solar hours. We're looking at BRL 10 to BRL 30 depending on the scenario you have low. In scenarios with lowest prices, you can have more margins and higher cost. They level things more. This is going to transform over time. If you look at BRL 10 to BRL 30, I think it is referenced. I can affirm that if somebody goes to Auren today and they want to buy a hedge for solar, we're not going to sell that for BRL 30. Just for you to understand the pricing for projects, it is difficult, it is really difficult to measure it.
You're going to remember what we say. We diversify our portfolio to accommodate this type of new sources. We work with this hedge aiming to optimize our portfolio then to actually sell the product. Of course, in the future, when things are more steady and we're more stable in the system, this is going to become a natural product in the market. Today we don't see that as a product because it is very difficult to price it. Carol, before I answer the second question, we receive a lot of demands because people ask us what is the number that I should use in my model. We understand that we'd like to give you a number that you're going to put in a 20-year model and then everybody's happy with this number. This number, this number doesn't exist.
What Fábio is saying is that we calculated roughly.
What is going to determine the cost of market risk, modulation risk, our PLD risk is going to be the management of the trader. This is what they do in the U.S. and in Europe. You have to have a good trading team. If your team does not wake up thinking about what's going to happen that day, you cannot have that rough number that you calculated for a long time. You have an estimated number for your reference. In Brazil, business is coming out of a market that nothing happened in the short term. Everything happened in the long term. What's going on to happen in the long term is the result of everything that happens in the short term. You have to bypass all of these things to improve your hedges. In the case of ONS, you are right.
ONS in fact has a level of, an exaggerated level of conservatism. The ONS report words about our deficit. Daylight. If you assume that you're going to have a big demand and you're not going to have water or sun, of course you have to buy power. How likely is that to happen? Of course you are being too much conservative and this leads to you becoming a reactionary. We'll have to fix the flexibilization measures. I don't know. We have about, how much do you have in terms of thermal energy? 5 to 7 GW from thermal power plants. You can fix that even if you pay for these guys to reduce it. That can be a smart solution. Now, how much do you gain? 6 to 7 GW of curtailment. There is another element that is more tricky.
If you go to Porto Primavera power plant and they say, I want you to reduce your supply, it is difficult, but you can modulate on other things and you can even reduce the total minimum outflow. If you look at any ONS, it varies on Sunday. The minimum hydro outflow sometimes varies in 7 or 8 GW to meet the same demand with the same degree of reliability. This could be a proactive demand, couldn't it? This is something we are discussing with ONS. Of course, they say that they want to be as reliable as possible, especially when an election is drawing near. They don't want to cause any trouble. This new world, this brave new world, will require more productivity from ONS. There's no other way.
If ONS operates the system of the future with the practices of the past, we are doomed because this is going to lack optimizations. I can see that the ONS team is making efforts, but they really have to do it in the field. I don't think it's going to solve everything, but it can be very relevant.
Talking about the flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant, they were talking about maximum revenues in the system up to 34 GW more or less. Now they're able to do up to 44. Now it started doing this on Sundays. Why did they make this decision? Maybe to help. Those who actually operate the power plants are receiving these calls and, okay, I need you to reduce your minimum operation. What has changed in terms of the operator of the power plant? Sorry, Fábio, I can't explain why ONS did that operation, because the operation that ONS has today is done in a system called post-dispatch that has a strong level of human intervention in the process.
My point is to not ask why, but just observe the fact and say, okay, with so much curtailment that we have today, isn't there a way of changing the power plants a little bit, the hydroelectric power plants? It's going to be a problem for the GSF. Whatever you reduce now, you can store. Then you have GSF saved for the future. I can't explain why, but I can tell you it's worth provoking and questioning. ONS has to position itself in terms of what you can do and not operationally speaking. Talking about the operation, ONS has freedom to request any kind of operation. It's incredible because ONS can request anything, of course, according to the parameters of the power plant. It does not have responsibility when you have floods, right? That's funny, right? When there are problems, it's your problem, we have to solve it, right?
That's how life is. When you have a critical situation, the operator that has the power plant and knows the asset, that's why they have to do it. There is a daily plan every 30 minutes. The operation of the system is planned every 30 minutes. The only thing that we say to ONS, and they know it, is that sometimes you have restrictions, hydraulic restrictions, to have a minimum flow. I cannot make it zero. Some machines have limits in terms of power to operate. You're able to have conditions in the power plant that you have to observe, and ONS actually looks at that. If they ask for Porto Primavera, and that has happened, at midday they're generating at 800, and then at 5:00 P.M. you have to do 1,400, then the company has to do this operation.
There's one characteristic, for example, in our Porto Primavera, because historically it's 1,600 meters cubed per second. You've seen in the media the request to reduce it to 3,900. In the hydric crisis we got to 2,900, but that was a necessary situation and we needed to mobilize people to rescue fish and everything. Today we have operational flexibility of 4,600 to 3,900 that we can operate, but it's not the normal operation of the power plant. This can happen in other power plants in the sector. They need more cautious analysis for you to check where you can have more flexibility for the operator. On the one hand, the operator today has freedom to look at the assets, to deal with the assets. I think you have to make the hydraulic measurements so that you will be able to accommodate day to the renewable generation during the day.
In defense of the ONS, they have worked with a lot of projects to prepare the operations of the future. One of these projects is the assessment of hydraulic operational conditioning. That's the new name they gave it. The ONS is doing the work of registering the restrictions and making them available to the market, because that's very important. In third place, if there are in a catalog in the sector we can actually have, we can make a calculation of the cost benefit they have. There are some restrictions, for example, for tourism. Sometimes it's easier for you to violate this restriction and then pay to the municipality that is loose because of this activity, because of the gain in tourism, than actually putting the electrical energy sector to address a requisite from the outside.
I see them wanting to do this, but the point is, you have to step on the accelerator because reality is coming in much faster and in a more diverse manner. Fábio, let me just get a question from the online audience looking at curtailment and hedging for the pricing per hour. Why should a company invest in solar energy? Solar energy today is an asset that is being judged. We have 10%, it's 10% of our portfolio nowadays. We have a big question about solar energy nowadays. Let me just tell you an anecdote. There are people who say, don't you want to buy my solar project? Of course we're not at a moment to make acquisitions.
Then we say, okay, maybe if you wait a little bit, the market is going to understand that the risk is not that high and maybe you'll have a better pricing in the future. There is a side that is discussing solar energy. It is a pendular movement. Solar energy is now the worst asset that can happen. We do not see this. Over time, these hedges will come in and as Luiz said, battery can come in as a solution as well for solar energy. We see in the context today that, as we said, inside the optimal portfolio, if we have the flexibility so that we are able to have a hedge for solar energy, PLD per hour and will have a good return, it does not make solar energy unfeasible in our portfolio because I'm not going to have the same PLD.
In some moments it's going to be flat. In some moments we're not going to be able to price this attribute. There will be periods where I'm not going to sell this flexibility. In the same way, when I transfer this attribute of PLD in my portfolio as a benefit, if I have a solar project that provides a return and then I can fix a return that is very good inside the portfolio, it's better doing this using this attribute as a natural hedge for that asset. Today there is aversion to it, but we have to look at the portfolio as a whole. It doesn't mean that if you're investing in solar energy, it doesn't mean we're going to advance in this. We are waiting for the scenario to become a little calmer so that we can evaluate solar projects.
Also, because many of the solar projects and the wind projects, they have curtailment and we know that with the investment in transmission, we estimate that the curtailment problem is not going to be the same size as we had last year or this year. This is going to be accommodated over time and then we have the best scenario to price these assets.
We have time for only one André Salles asked for the mic.
André Salles from Santander. I wanted to discuss two quick topics. One about curtailment and in the discussion of the provisional measure, do you expect them to discuss curtailment for distributed generation as well, which is relevant politically speaking? The second topic is about the spot market. Could we have any evolution in terms of incorporating the calculations of the spot market?
For example, changes in the minimum and maximum spot, could that reflect the effective dynamics of the operation better? Potentially, it could help in this discussion of the batteries actually coming into the system and the operation of the system being difficult.
I'll leave it to you. Curtailment and GD. I think this discussion is going to come about and I'm very skeptical about it, about the capacity, the sector because of the way they charge. I spent a lot of time studying the 14,300. It's very well written. It is very protective if you have GD1, and if you have GD1, you're not called a producer. It's a producer and consumer. There's a strong legal case for this charging to not be easy. I'm very scared.
I think the GD can start paying a few things, but more in the line of a structured tariff ordered by ANEEL and something that is outside the bill at night or a law that is going to have the capacity reserve using solar energy as the reserve and curtailment. I would like it to happen, but I have doubts about it, about the price and the operational signal. I think we've been trying to do this in Brazil for a while now. The hybrid model is one step and the risk aversion is another step. There's still a long way to go. I'm not going to talk about heavy metal now. We're halfway there. As Jon Bon Jovi said, you know, in the song "Livin' on a Prayer." I think we're moving, there's still a way to go.
It's not exactly inside the price, the sign of the operation that we have today. At this moment, I see it inside the sector. I see it as something that is not really to discuss. We're just discussing the way to do it. Today, we have CVaR, which is a measure and it helps, but it doesn't solve the issue. I would like to have some more exotic things like aversion to risk and that sort of thing, but it's more of a methodology discussion and it's three years ahead. We're trying to get it. I think ONS also wants this. They also want this. We're going to get the space for energy safety and we're going to throw as much as we can inside the price. This is a very positive movement. I think we're moving in this direction.
Just to add onto curtailment, the discussions in the sector are reliability, the generator. I don't know if you've been following this. The generator should be considered the energy. We're saying I'm not going to sell what the consumer is not consuming. However, we have to consider the public policies that were made, and GD is a public policy, and the generator should not be affected either because if this GD were not encouraged, we would have less energy. If you don't want to move to solar energy, you should not charge from the centralized generator this part of the energy that is brought by solar energy. I think it's a little bit of what the sector is doing and what they're trying to discuss in terms of curtailment, and maybe in the provisional measure they already have amendments that you've seen in this direction.
This is going to open up for a discussion to try and solve this. I think the bill is a way of doing it, but the cleaner way of doing it. If we have a provisional measure, we would have a definite solution. Our time is up. Thank you, Barroso. Thank you, Fábio. And especially to our guests who engaged and participated with their questions. Now we're going to have a brief 20 minute break, and we'll come back with Mário Bertoncini. See you soon.
We're going to resume our rendezvous. Today we're going to have the second part of our event. Let's wait until everyone takes their seats.
Okay, so welcome back. We're going to start the second part of the Auren Day and I'd like to invite our Vice President Mário Bertoncini for Customers and Commercialization.
Good morning everyone. Thank you once again for coming. After the presentation by Fábio, the discussion with Barroso, I would like to open up a few minutes to discuss the strategy of the trading company and how the Auren trading company is inserted in all of these movements of the sector. We got some content that was discussed with you in Auren Day of last year. I think it's worth emphasizing it's the reason for the existence of a large trading company at Auren. It could seem to be natural, you know, a large trading company and having a trading company that is also big, but it's not that natural.
If we look at the ranking of the three first trading companies in the country, we have the opportunity of leading this ranking. The other two that come right after, they are financial institutions. They're not generators. They are not distributors, they are financial institutions. Why do we have as a strategic objective inside our strategic planning a large trading company? It's good to emphasize that our trading company basically addresses the objective of mitigating risks. That's the primary objective of its existence. It's one of the pillars of its existence. Throughout the presentation, I'm going to give you some examples of the risk mitigation it does. It also complies with the objective of generating results as a center for results of profit. Finally, it is the added value for the customer that consumes energy.
The reason for the perennial existence of this trading company, for it to become perpetual, you have to provide value to this customer. That's what provides the feedback for all this. As Fábio has already said, all of the challenges in terms of generation, the growing intermittency, growing volatility, the need to complement the matrix to operate the flexibility, we see the commercializing company, the trading company, in connection between this growing complexity of generation at a greater scale. Let's just remember that from the last Auren Day until now, we more than doubled the size with the acquisition and incorporation of AES and also on the side of the customer in a more diversified basis. This customer also demanded flexibility. We launched a few questions and these questions are not from today. We've been asking ourselves for a while now and I'd like to share these.
We shared these questions with you at Auren Day last year. How are we highlighted in this connection between the complexity of generation and the customer demands? How can we offer to this customer the best value proposals? We're going to talk about this in a minute. We're going to talk about the value proposal offer and the nuances. Finally, how do we do this in a profitable way? Adding value to the customer and at the same time paying us for capital allocation and working capital and this whole connection. How do we do this in this growing market that is increasingly competitive? The energy market is extremely competitive, the margins are tight and we have to reinvent ourselves as products and in terms of customer loyalty to be able to add and share value with the same customer.
From then on we chose in the trading company to go for two very important attributes. This is what makes the Auren Trading company different from the other top players. The other players were also large. The first one is to have activity under the same umbrella of the trading company. We also have a multi-segmented action on companies. This is not true in terms of the other large trading companies in the country. Our ambition and our proposal is to have a value proposal and to have a productive relationship with the electro-intensive customers, semi-electric intensive customers and the largest 180 groups that consume energy, large groups. This is a very technical relationship and it is perennial and it is based on products until the smaller customers. Customer in medium and high tension in the retail market. This is definitely multi-segmented, in different segments.
We want to highlight the different segments where we work in. The second aspect is multi-products. We want to have a variation in our product portfolio so that we can achieve large extension of customers in different moments in the market and in the activity of these customers. Not only direct energy and its variations, but also correlated products, lots of hedging and source hedging, other characteristics going through the sustainability products. Definitely a very active thing in Brazil. Carbon credits and I-RECs and several other products with these nuances. Besides that, we have our vocation and generation. We have this multi-segmented distribution of the customers. In our perspective, definitely this is achieved through partnerships. With partners, these small partners, sometimes regionalized around Brazil and who operate with us up to strategic partnerships.
For example, Fábio was also talking about the example of our joint venture in Brazil Vivo Telefônica to be able to achieve in a quick and efficient manner and also cheap, as cheap as possible, and the acquisition cost of that customer, the retail market. That's one aspect. Another one is that if it's multi-segmented in different sizes and profiles of customers, it's to make these different segmentations complement each other. The corporate area of large customers that I was talking about a minute ago, it's an area that allows us to. It is relatively stable in terms of allocation. It has a certain inertia in the allocation of its contracts. It moves slower when you compare slower in terms of purchasing decisions and with regard to the other segments. It does guarantee the perennial aspect. It provides stability for these results.
At some moments, according to Provisional Measure 1300, we have large amount of purchasing in the short term. It is according to the mid income customers, we call it the wholesale area. We allocate most of the energy that we produce in this area of medium customers and they allow us to act much faster. We are much more agile with regard to the allocation of products and the allocation of energy itself, and changing the nuances according to the movement of the market, according to the oscillation of prices and other market conditions. Finally, last but not least, we have the retail sector.
The retail sector in middle and high tension, this is not what we do in terms of distribution, but we have a very relevant presence amongst the market leaders today in the segment of medium and high tension in the retail sector and above all working together with Vivo in Gud Energia. It is also an option and at the moment that the Provisional Measure.
1300.
This free market for low tension is a way of us being well positioned. It's an option that we have so that we can have an operation that is also relevant, that is efficient in these segments for smaller customers. I can say that what we acquired last year has been mentioned here. It is within the context of biofeedback, about the information about the product and the nuance of different products.
Up next, I'd like to share with you the value proposition of Auren. The value proposition for customers, and especially in a multi-segmented scope where we are inserted, can change according to the customer, according to customer size, to their conditions and profiles. We have value propositions that are different, that are not necessarily the same for one customer and another. However, some pillars of our value propositions are recurring, they repeat themselves along the different profiles and different moments where we work with our customers. One of these recurring pillars in this value proposition to customers is our solidity and credibility. It's about not only Auren's work as a counterpart that delivers on what it promises, that is coherent in its deliveries, and in a recurrent way building a genuine partnership as well as considering our controllers and shareholders.
We know that the market is falling, so this pillar is very valuable. Right now, I don't mean to be modest, but we want to be one of the players that can leverage on the pillar of solidity and reliability. One second aspect of our value proposition is being a player that offers solutions in energy. We use, for example, our sales force, our energy sales force, our customer service teams with their autonomy to feed a commercial intelligence. Of course, this is not to be confused with the market intelligence, but I refer to the commercial intelligence, understanding that customer needs and the daily interaction with a diversified customer base promotes insights that we didn't have, new insights. We want this commercial intelligence to look back into complementary services, products, and solutions so we can offer that as a continuous value proposition.
A third aspect I would like to mention about this value proposition is customer experience. The energy sector, the free energy market in the energy sector, is a market that has been evolving since 1995, about 30 years ago. It opened up gradually and, doing a self-assessment, doing a peer assessment, we can see there's a lot of room to improve customer experience. This is an ever-growing market and we are aware of it. In the free energy market, we aim to become one of the places that is in the avant-garde in providing a customer experience that involves energy more as a service than as a product. Of course we respect our competitors, but we want to be in the avant-garde group pushing this customer prerogative agenda. It is difficult, this is difficult to do though.
We want to build a culture that values customers, and this requires a pre and post sales team that is well trained to deliver the service. We need an ever-growing level of digitalization because our goals must be, our intentions must be good. If I don't have timely information to provide to our customers, no matter how good my intention is, I cannot provide the service that customers require and demand. This is something that is still incipient, that was discussed in the previous panels, flexibility. We want to have this flexibility considering customers' point of view or customers' demand. We're speaking about flexibility on the side of generation. We know how important it is to have an energy mix, the importance of being prepared, adding batteries to this equation in a feasible way. However, we cannot disregard the other side of the equation.
How can we share value with our customers, leveraging on this flexibility, basing ourselves on the demand today? This is something incipient, but this is something that is going to grow. We are going to discuss this with you going forward more often. This is only at the beginning. This discussion is only beginning. In Brazil we have some limitations, of course, the ceiling prices and the initial prices, having hydroelectric storages, reservoir storages, batteries, and other managements that exceed batteries. These demands are growing in Brazil and the values are going to grow. We want to take good position to offer these solutions to our customers. I'd also like to speak about being a big trader, the top trader in Brazil and maybe one more. The first thing we say is okay, but how can we associate that to a great risk exposure, market risk exposure, and volatility.
We have to ask ourselves what is the risk of this and how can we solve this equation? I'm going to take a few minutes to demystify a little bit of this, at least demystify this in our case context for our trader at Auren. I'm going to cover our results and implicit evolve in these results. Maybe one of the ways for us to analyze Auren's trader and the performance that doesn't come from today, we are going to analyze performance since 2022, 2023, 2024, and are going to do the same, follow the same standard for 2025. I like to take a different approach. Maybe the added value of Auren Trader can be divided into two big result groups. The first block is what we call the margins, the margins of the trader. What does that mean?
The results that were seen at the end of the year, the results obtained, that is composed of three. It is a fruit of past contracts that I signed before 2025 this year but whose results were realized this year. We have these results in this year. One of the components of the margin is this block on the right. The second block is the operation that I carry out in the year and a profit in the same year. I am not referring to the future, I am referring to the current year. The third block refers to trading operations that look at a few months ahead and bring results this year. This is the margin on the left side of the page, the annual margin which is part of the operation, different from the other that considers the year's EBITDA. We give transparency to you.
We are very transparent to you how we are expanding the trader's margins. Besides considering the EBITDA margins are from BRL 5 to BRL 10 per kWh in volumes. We disclose not only the unitary margin but also the aggregated accumulated in growing volumes along the last few years. We intend this number to keep growing in the coming years. This is the first block of results. The second block of results has to do with future margins that do not consider EBITDA and is not confused and does not sum the annual margin that I've just spoken about. This is considering the current year, in this case 2025. The results that we are building in MtM for future years from January 25th on, from January 26th on. Now, taking these two results in an accrued way.
The results in millions, 2022, 2023, 2024, of course they are millions and 15 fluctuations. They complement each other as a sum, as an accumulated number. The trader, Auren Trader, must be analyzed according to these two great calculations. In some moments, especially in our quarterly analysis, we have to analyze these numbers because they are going to be considered at the end of the year. This MtM, I should say, just like the trading margin added to the current year, is done at Auren based on risks that are very moderate, risk analysis that are much lower than what we could expect from a trading table of a financial asset today at Auren. Considering our size, we have a maximum value at risk, VaR, of BRL 120 million that we do not reach. We were careful enough to show you the incurred average VaR over the past few years.
That is about BRL 20 to BRL 40 million. You may ask, okay, but this is the average VaR. What is the maximum VaR in that year, 2022, 2023, 2024, or even 2025 from January to December? On what day of the year did you reach your peak? In 2022 and 2023, the peak was BRL 44 and BRL 45 million. In the average VaR for 2023 and 2024, the maximum VaR was for two days. Two days in the year, two days from the 200-something business days, was the number for which we achieved that for two days. We offset our operations to bring this value at risk down, so we did not reach the maximum VaR, the value at risk. There is a margin for us to work. I'd like to share this with you because there is a recurrence of results made up of blocks of contracts.
There is a positive inertia in this operation with a very low assumed risk. I'd like to demystify this risk vision with you and volatile returns or earnings, which is not compatible with the way we work today and with our strategy of our trader. My time is up, so I'd like to wrap up on this last page. I'd like to bring a more tangible example of Auren Trader as a risk mitigator and value adder. Over the past few months, when we combined Auren portfolio with AES acquired portfolio, we quickly identified the opportunity to optimize some energy sale backing. These are contracts with end customers in the different projects that we have that we acquired from AES. There was the possibility of us better distributing these backings among projects and also based on the trader's book and opening up room for self-production.
I must say this has been around for a few months since last year. We were looking at the 1300 Bill of Law, and then we opened a backing for self-production to sign, to have this commitment. I'm not including Cajuína 3, which is a new project. I'm referring to existing projects before the Cajuína 3 expansion. We had the opportunity of 440 MW more to have new self-productions in that backing of projects that were existing and operating. We pursued our customer funnel in the self-production. As a matter of fact, MP 1300 accelerated this strategy. We are about to conclude hiring of this backing. In our end, Ventos do Piauí 1, Ventos do Piauí 2, Tucano, Cajuína 1 and 2, and Jaíba. These are basically totally hired for self-production of energy. What about the other projects?
They are hired today at high prices with very interesting margins with full quarterly disclosures to you in our quarterly results in the regulated energy market. This made it possible to optimize this energy generation without having to rely on the backing system of our AES acquisition and Cajuína 3, and we could add BRL 330 million above market prices. I'm not pricing energy zero at the trader. We buy this energy at market price. We do not give this price. This price is given by an authority out of Auren. BRL 330 million is the value that we added outside of the price curve of the market. We are going to close this week, the last week of the deal, with a portfolio that will include Auren, solar, and wind. I am not including hydroelectric and will have 44% of our installed capacity hired in self-production.
We are certainly the first or the second biggest player in hiring. We have also consolidated another portion, consolidated that is going to be consolidated purchase, which is going to leave something less than 10% for the other hirings for the free energy market. As Luiz said, we are following up this quarterly. We are having strategies for the short and long term. We want to have the option, for example, if our theses are correct, to allocate this energy in better market conditions and nothing of this was shaken. This strategy is maintained. The size of the trader in this value proposition allows us in those segments that are more interesting, for example, the solar and wind power plants. We can allocate this energy probably from the solar and wind portfolio. Maybe these are the best market hiring profiles for the regulated market.
This is a little bit of what I wanted to share with you. I will be at your disposal not only today but also in the coming weeks to answer your questions. Thank you.
Thank you, Mario. The strategy and the generation of value for the trader were much clearer after your talk, Mario. Now we're going to speak about integration, a recurring topic for every Auren employee and that you all follow up closely. I have told many of you that I am positively surprised at each step and this process is being conducted in a very agile and diligent way, to speak about integration. I'm going to invite on stage our Executive Director of Value and Strategy, João Guillaumon, our Generation VP Daniel Marrocos, and our CFO Mateus Ferreira.
Good morning everyone. I have the pleasure of telling you quickly about the effort that we made for integration. Daniel, Mateus Ferreira, are going to go into more details about the turnaround effort of the wind energy plants. I'm going to start by comparing what we announced on the 15th of May 2024, when we announced the transition transaction, and it is certain that we're going to do it now. In May of last year we had BRL 120 million a year and that's what we showed in the first half of the year. We're going to get to BRL 250 million per year in our plan. We also said that we would get to the availability of the wind energy that is incorporated of 95%. That's after the second year of operations.
Now we believe we're going to get to this value after the first year, at the end of this year, the first year of operation. In the last nine months, ever since the first, when we assumed the operation of AES, we were able to update and improve the profile of our debts. You do a liability management that generates BRL 300 million. This is comparing to what we had on the 1st of the month and what we have today. Mateus is going to talk about that in a minute. How did we do this? We did very careful due diligence and a lot of planning, trying to anticipate as much as possible and with intense execution. Describing this process very quickly, what we did and what's coming, we started in December 2023, in the beginning of the due diligence process.
We had the first perspective of the value involved with the transaction. It was a little conservative, but it was the first perspective. We started recertifying our assets. In the first months of this due diligence, we were able to see very accurately all of our wind energy products. We started working with what we captured. At the end of 2023, we were already thinking about making the transaction with the gains that it would bring. When we talked about this transaction in May 2024, when we announced it, we were working with an integration office that was highly dedicated. Ever since, we did plans for the first, for day 100, and for the end of the first year of operation.
This also allowed us to work with the updating of the value and working on a turnaround plan for wind energy, going from the air generators to the other air generators, what would have to be done and what we're going Daniel Marrocos is going to talk about that in a minute. It was planned in more or less six months, between May 6 and November 1, which was day one. This allowed us, on the first day of operations, to implement the new structure of the company fully. All of the leadership, the coordinators, managers and above already knew their destination, they already knew their role in the new organization since the first day.
This brought gains not only in terms of adjusting the structure and the cost associated to the people structure, but it also allowed us to work in a focused manner trying to capture other gains. We've already implemented since the first day some material services and others, especially systems that could be used and service contracts from the American company that we acquired that we could use from the beginning. We were able to start from the first day doing the work with a turnaround of the wind energy plants. When we got to day 100, we had most of the system decommissioned. Two thirds were already integrated and decommissioned. We started working on two or three great aspects. First of all, the continuation of the synergy capture. That's when we were able to confirm this value of BRL 250 million a year. Also, the consolidation of the operational center.
One was in Campinas, one was in Bauru. Our gain basically came from consolidating the operational centers only in one. This is what we did two weeks ago, exactly two weeks ago we were able to do that on July 1. Where are we now? Today we have 80% of our plan fully concluded, fully carried out. We are finishing July with a preparation for migration of SAP. I'm saying it's preparation because we're going to have the go live in all of the information incorporated activities on the first few days of August. Together with this consolidation of SAP, we're going to have the unifying of the shared services. The last services and systems that are still working in duplication, we're going to solve that in August. In July we also finish our liability management.
That's why I'm happy to tell you that we're very confident that until December we're going to have 100% of the integration concluded. All the processes, all the systems, all the organization is going to act with a single organization and with the availability of the wind energy plants. I'm going to ask Daniel to talk about what was done.
Thank you, João. Good morning everyone. João has already talked about the 95%, but I'm going to talk about our portfolio first. These are all of our assets and how we are distributing them around the country. Our wind energy plants that before were concentrated in Piauí, in the border of Pernambuco, now we have some states of Bahia and Pernambuco, Ceará, and Rio Grande do Norte. We diversified geographically, also the position of our wind energy plants in the countryside and the coast of the country.
There are different structures and this helps in the resilience of our portfolio. Our solar energy plants, the biggest plant is in the north of Minas in the Midwest of Brazil, but now there are others in São Paulo with the AES assets. Then our hydroelectric power plants that have three main basins, the basin of Rio Grande, Rio Jequitinhonha, and Paraná. They also compose our portfolio and they help to diversify our generation, our resilience in our portfolio. I'm going to focus specifically on the turnaround of the wind energy plants. That was a great challenge that we had for this year and we've been building upon it. Our objective is to get to the end of the year with 95% of availability in terms of the acquired assets.
We see this for all the items that were all the assets that were acquired from AES to achieve this result. In the second quarter, we finished with 92% of availability for these assets, but then in June already with 93%. This is a high trajectory with the expectations of until the end of the year getting to the average of 95% for this portfolio. The highlights for Cajuína and Tucano plants, where we were able to recover more than 20 basis points in the availability of these plants ever since we took them over until now. Why do we talk a lot about availability? First of all, because for every 1% of availability that we recover, we're talking about this portfolio and added revenues of BRL 20 million. We're talking about leaving the machines that are available to administrate the wind that is coming there.
If I look at my availability in the fourth quarter of 2024 versus what we're trying to get for December of this year, it's 4 basis points, it's BRL 80 million in revenues that we have added to our portfolio with this recovery of availability. What do we have about what was done? First of all, bring the team and engage the whole team focusing on this. Communicating to people, training them so that everybody will be clear on the objective of having the machines available to produce was the first step that we followed. After that, putting the management of the system to work. Until June, we have this management program where we monitor the characteristics of the equipment and we follow up the generation and the technical conditions of each machine. We are able to optimize and improve our maintenance conditions.
We also got the engineering and the field teams closer together. As problems come in, sometimes they need to debate. You need to make an analysis to be able to understand the problem and to understand the root cause of what's happening and bring adequate solutions. Finally, the availability of capital. We put the available resources to bring these machines back. I'm going to mention this later on. The machines could be interrupted because of lack of components, lack of prioritization. You need the capital that is necessary to be able to have these components in the field and to make the changes and the adequate maintenance. This was another point that we actually set as a priority this year so that we would be able to make this turnaround of wind energy plants. What did this reflect in our portfolio as a whole?
These are some numbers, not only from the assets that were acquired, but all those that include the wind energy assets. We are closing the semester with a generation of 102%. This is of the P90 and removing the curtailment. We have already produced the revenues. This is the P90 certification, which is the volume of generation that you want to understand is going to be the same or above that 90% of the time, so 90% percentile of generation. The availability is 94% of the portfolio as a whole. Just for comparison, it is a coincidence the number is the same, but if I get the generation that we deliver and if we add it to curtailment, this plant would have produced 102% of the P50 certification. In fact, it shows that we have numbers that are quite coherent and robust for generation.
I would like to highlight one point that is here in the lower part of the slide, which is our generation every quarter and our performance considering certification P50 as well as P90. We observe that from the fourth quarter on, we were able to get to a P90 with only potential generation. We've already reached P90 and P50 with generation and the potential of the first quarter and overcoming the certifications starting in this second quarter. It's coherent or continuous improvement of the machines and also other aspects of performance that we're looking at. Talking a little bit about this story, what did we find when we made the acquisition of AES in November 2024, on day one? What have we been working on during this period?
On that date, we had 37 aerogenerators that were interrupted for different reasons: the need to change components, or the component was not available, or you had the component available but you didn't have the prioritization in doing the maintenance or that replacement. In a way, there was a loss in focus in terms of what to do. During these eight months until today, because of the maintenance that we've been doing and as a result of the failure rates, we stopped other machines. That was 28 aerogenerators. We're talking about a total of 65 machines that were interrupted during this time. Now we've come back with 57 of them. Basically, we're talking about the replacement of large components like gearboxes, the generator, replacing other components in the aerogenerators.
At this moment, we have eight aerogenerators that are interrupted, and the prediction for them to go back to working is September. Later on, I'm going to talk about these aerogenerators. This is the result of a process of repairing that takes a little more time, so repairing of the blades, so it takes longer to happen. It was already expected it would be this way. These are the aerogenerators that we have at this moment that are not working. Our process is based on four pillars. The first one is the implementation of this governance focused on availability, training of people, focusing on having the machine available and doing adequate maintenance. That's the main activity of the field team and the acceleration of the replacement of these great components. As João said before, we can actually go into November, we've identified which aerogenerators were interrupted and for what reason.
We focused on even talking with, as we talked about acquiring the components, having this availability of these components to be replaced in the field. This work was done during this time so that we would have the machines available. That was the second pillar of availability and reliability. We got our teams in the field closer to the engineering teams. We needed to analyze the failures adequately and have good solutions for these failures. Therefore, we're able to have more reliability in terms of generation. For example, I have an issue in the machine. I have to interrupt it right now to make a replacement or can I maintain the operation? I'm going to monitor the machine to guarantee safety of how it works. Then I replace the component at an adequate moment. All of this is in terms of maintenance. We put management on top of tools.
We start monitoring and following up the equipment. We start looking at performance. This is not a picture, this is a journey. It's evolution. We're bringing the team with a focus. That's the beginning. Putting the philosophy of availability is a step. We evolve from now on monitoring and being agile in the correction, being smart in the diagnosis, and that's how we're going to get performance. Availability is a path. 95% at the end of the year is the number that we want to reach very much. We're going to do it. We're going to continue evolving at the same time because we want to get more performance in the machines. Talking to you about two challenges that we still have from now until the end of the year. One is the Tucano plant. The Tucano plant is the one that has the biggest machines.
It has a history of replacement of the quick axis that connects to the generator of the machine. This axis also breaks. There was a large volume of exchanges even before Auren went into the assets. It's a process that continued. We concluded these exchanges of the axes that failed in March. This is reflected when you look at the picture, the reduction of availability at the beginning of the year, because we made interruptions to replace these components. We concluded the exchanges of the quick axis. Now we're in the recovery phase for the availability and with challenges for other types of maintenance of the machine and the learning that we have in this plant in terms of operation. This is a new plant when we talk about operation. The second challenge is Mandacaru.
Mandacaru is the plant that has the largest number of machines that are interrupted nowadays because this is where we have the challenge of the blade gaps. You understand there's a problem that comes up in the root of the blade. There's some problem we have to repair at the tip of the blade so that the machine can operate once again. There were machines with gaps, large gaps. As soon as we took over the plants and these components are being repaired, we have to remove the blade. We have to do it outside the machine. This takes a long time for you to be able to do and to conclude. Our prediction is we started to get these machines back in April. In the same way, you're going to see that the availability is going to get smaller because we're interrupting the machines because of the problems.
We started the recovery process and we plan to conclude all these repairs until September of this year in this plant. To close my presentation, I would like to show you our main success case. We have a few of them inside our fleet, but Cajuína, in fact, is a highlight. If you look at the first graph on the top left, the first line is the generation that was achieved during the first half of 2024. The amount was well below what we expected for this plant because of operational issues, because of the philosophy of maintenance they used, and because of the ramp up that was happening. It was a plant that if you compare the generation that is done against P90, there was an associated cost of BRL 137 million for AES last year because of the low performance of this plant. There were two aspects here.
The first one was low availability. This lack of focus in maintaining the availability of the machines was very harmful for this plant. Right after the announcement of the operation, with Auren and talking to AES, we started the job of returning some of the machines to work and the plant, which had 92% of availability at this point, we are closing June with 97% of availability in this plant. That's a very important characteristic in terms of recovery of this generation. The two lower curves bring what is adherence of generation to the potential curve of the machine. The orange line is the manufacturer's curve of how much I expect to produce in energy because of the wind that I have available. You're going to observe that in 2020, the blue dots that are there are the ones of effective generation and they are below the curve.
They don't achieve the generation point of the machine. Starting this year, together with the manufacturer, we worked on making the analysis and whatever repairs were necessary. Basically, we adjusted the performance parameters of the machines to be able to bring the curve to what was expected. When I look at 2025, I have points of generation. These are the pink dots, and it's according to the curve that we see for the machine. This is to guarantee the generation in this plant. If you look at the generation curve, going back to the top left graph, the pink curve, in the first half of the year, it was 67% of the P90 certification, considering the loss of energy due to curtailment.
If I didn't have curtailment, it would have generated 105% of the P50 generation, showing that it is completely adherent, and the work for you to maintain this condition and this generation comes from these steps that we follow from now on with these tools, with these methodologies, and with our philosophy of maintaining the parks available with maximum generation potential. Thank you for your time, and I'm going to give the floor to Mateus, who's going to talk about the continuation of this integration process.
Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, everyone. It is a pleasure to be here with you. We have voiced that the main focus of the company are leverage and integration. I mean deleverage, we have seen this in May and since the closing of the transaction in May, in November, and it is very good to be here with you and seeing the results. Daniel and João spoke a lot about reducing PMSO, Daniel, about improving availability, and I'm going to cover the reduction of leverage. When we announced this operation and we disclosed the results, we had 5.7 times leverage in the first quarter. We had an important reduction to 5 times. This was the fruit of 1.5 GW of capacity that had been built and gone into operation in 2024 plus the synergies that were captured, which are the BRL 250 million that João mentioned.
We continue the deleveraging process with the plant even with the increasing SELIC. I want to hit the 3 to 3.5 times in about three years. We will achieve this deleveraging, hit 3 to 3.5 times in 2027, 2028. This happens in three moments. First, the fast reduction because of the additional input we had last year, and now we're going to be on a softer curve because of three factors. First, the Cajuína 3 building that is going to cost BRL 750 million. We're going to pay BRL 1.4 billion in compensation, and we hired, we're going to have a lower, higher price. We are going to deleverage in the coming quarters but at a lower pace. Starting in 2027, we're going to reduce the gross debt, fruit of the cash conversion rate, and we're going to have an important fiscal change and the end of the CapEx cycle.
The CapEx operational and the Cajuína CapEx are not going to be there in 2027, and the cash of the company is going to be very high. There is a second reason, which is the EBITDA growth. EBITDA has two growth factors. One that is higher that you see in our energetic balance, the average price, which is higher in 2027 compared to 2026, different than 2026 compared to 2025, and the Cajuína 3 operations that is also going to contribute to the EBITDA growth. Here we can see what has been done since October last year, even before the closing of the transaction. Yesterday we approved in the board the issuing of BRL 2.8 billion in three different lines that I'm going to share here. That is going to conclude the liability management plan.
We're going to pay BRL 2.2 billion, remembering that we paid 60% of it in April when we did an issuing. We're going to prepay now a line of BRL 700 million, which is an institutional debenture that was due in 2027. We're going to pay it early because the costs are more competitive. From the total, when we look from October so far, the company has issued BRL 3 billion, part for the bridge to cover the acquisition bridge and part to cover the takeout of the bridge. These transactions together, as João said, generated a NPV of BRL 300 million to the company. This amount doesn't go against our business plan. It's only the lines that propagated against the lines that were captured. This difference generated to the company BRL 300 million if we do it again.
Our business model at the moment of the acquisition is that this amount is above the BRL 300 million. The three acquisitions: one is an institutional debenture of BRL 2.1 billion that is going to be done at CESP, it's the 7-year line, 6% due on the 7th year at the CDI plus 0.62%. The second issuing is an incentivized debenture of BRL 500 million that we're doing. It's going to be priced in August, but the reference that we have today hired with the banks, the trade is. Let's remember when we did the issuing in April, it was a good one. We had capture NTN-B minus 15, but we did the swap to CDI and we're going to do the same here as swap on the pricing date. The quotes we are receiving, we're going to have a all-in quote below the CDI.
The third line that we approved yesterday was a Climate Fund from BNDES, and we have some people here from the BNDES, at the cost of IPCA + 3%. The company, as you can see here, all the costs of the last issuance versus the costs that we had here in prepay, which actually generates these BRL 300 million of NPV. These numbers have been very competitive in what we have been capturing. Auren has been in the best capturing costs due to these last actions that we did. When I look at the amortization chronogram, it is a chronogram from March. We had in 2027 and 2028 two debts that were due that were more concentrated. We are paying these two concentrations and issuing new debts. Now we have a rounded chronogram. There is no other concentration and no other here.
We are concluding the liability management due to the contractions. Now we're going to have the ordinary funds or amounts that we have to pay, about BRL 1 billion, that are going to be paid up to 2029. It's according to plan. When we did this acquisition, when I look at exposition of the company, we have the same breakdown. This is the March breakdown. The June numbers are going to change very little. We have small exposition to CDI, 20% of our net debt. For each 1% of Selic increase, it's going to cost BRL 30 million for the company. We reduced due to the liability management that we did over these last months. Two thirds of our debt were connected to the same index of the energy contract, which is IPCA. From the equity point of view of the company, we delivered all the.
From the point of view of liabilities of the company, we were able to deliver well. We are doing this deleveraging to achieve 3 to 3.5 times in 3 to 4 years. I would like to wrap up my participation. I'm going to invite Luiz and Fábio too.
Okay, Fábio, please.
Thank you. Mateus. No, it's our Q&A, right. Let's go to, let's have our Q&A session first. How does that sound?
Now I'm going to invite Mario back on stage so we can have all speakers here. You can raise your hand if you're here and if you're online, please write your question in the box. We're going to have a final Q&A session. Thank you. Would you like to ask the questions? I'm going to ask a question that came from one person that is online speaking about trading.
We saw the results of the trader that were outstanding in the first semester, in the first quarter. What can we expect for the next quarters of the year? Mario, can you please answer?
We saw in fact that our first quarter was successful. You watched it closely. We saw that the asymmetry of markets pointed at a direction that seemed clear, seemed more clear, contrary to a present thesis on the market. We ended up having good results. I think we can expect for our trader for the whole year a consistent result, a result that is aligned with the margin that is connected to the MtM of our portfolio. This influx of prepay, export prepay, this acceleration that Bill 1300 brought us that composes MTMs in a more robust way. I don't believe that this will repeat.
The situation of the first quarter is going to repeat in the other three quarters, but the consistence of these results will remain. It is a challenging year, a year with a lot of volatilities. We delivered a good first quarter and we are working towards a consistent second quarter. I think we can close the year adding good margins and MTMs that make sense and are aligned with the numbers that we had over the past few years. I think Carol wanted to ask a question.
Hi, thank you. This is Carol from Safra. This is a question to Mario too. I'd like you to speak a little more about this backing, this increasing backing for self-production, the 200 MW for guaranteed energy. How did this process happen and how should we expect to see the migration of these contracts for self-production? How is this going to impact your trader?
Okay Carol, when we come up with existing operating projects and the overlay of contracts and backings, PPA or self-production, purchase and sale and self-production, it's like a mosaic. You have an optimization, you put up an optimization result, you have some molds and you cut around them so you can optimize the fabric. That was basically what we did. We saw in the portfolio, for example, we had AES portfolio with PPAs and with signed contracts. When we combined that to Auren self-generation into the customer base of the trader, some of these contracts didn't have to be connected to a specific project. They could be in the book of the trader and they could be complied with ipsis litteris and the self-production could be accommodated in the SPEs to better optimize the use of this fabric of our metaphor.
We didn't lose any of these contracts. Without losing any results, we could optimize the use of these backings for generation from SPEs, from the different wind and solar projects that we have or the customer base of the generator. Some of these contracts could be carried in our book and I could bring some energy to the market. That's what we did Carol. This optimization opened these 200-ish MW of physical guarantee and it made sense to allocate it to self-production of energy. That's what we did. Those BRL 330 million that we created is the exact calculation so it does not confuse with available backings that we had at Auren because this would make sense and of course it is not combined with new projects.
I mean the very optimization of what already existed and this bill of law accelerated this and we thought it would be good to go ahead with these backings and this bill could deprive us of these rights. That's why we accelerated this.
Okay, João Pimentel
I'd like to understand about incentivized energy thinking about this bill of a sector scarcity. I'd like to understand what direction you are taking. We are still unsure in terms of incentivized energy per se of these existing projects. This incentive is going to close on December 31, combining the incentive of the wire and the incentives of the charges of self-production. Now is the moment to do that this week, literally speaking.
We still prefer to accelerate, allocate our incentivized backing in the existing self-productions where we could optimize this gain and continue working in the incentivized energy market along the second semester up to the end of the bill of law and acquiring backings from third parties to serve customers in this incentivized energy customer base. Let's look at how this is going to happen in the market. We've always had a very constructive view of incentivizing wire, but this bill is going to extinguish and we will continue with existing projects. This is going to be fabulous. How does Auren see the price potential auction of GSF and how is the company preparing itself for it? I think we are doing some calculations. BRL 1.15 billion in inventories.
It seems to be a lot, but if we consider concessions that are, this is something that we do now to benefit from that we're going to benefit in the future. Taking part in this auction must be good in the long term. I think in terms of profits it's good, but I don't think we could put a lot of spread on top of what is described there. We have our assets that were incorporated AES with the concessions that will end in 2032, and Jacques' team is analyzing if it's going to make sense for us to join this auction or not.
Good morning, Fernando from Brasil Capital. Two questions, one to Mateus. Considering everything that we discussed in the morning and now with the NPV above, the expected in terms of indebted asset integration and availability, how is this deleveraging curve expected to happen?
What is CDI going to look like? And Fábio, we have seen several different new projects are being put up now. What are the incentives for the next five years, what to expect seeing the management team and what are the incentives to take the company to the next level?
In terms of the deleveraging curve is what we saw. We have a lot of hired energy for the next three years. If the price changes in the short term, it's not going to impact us because we have a lot of energy hired. This is not going to affect our structure. For the efficiencies that we have reached with issuing new debts, we minimize the impact of the CDI because we have only a 20% exposure. We have minimized this impact and maintained the original curve.
What I mentioned in the presentation today, we are following the plan that was designed in the past. We had this important reduction. Now it is going to become more soft in the coming 18 months, especially because of Cajuína and the payment of the compensation, the reimbursements. This curve is going to accelerate because of the high cash flow.
Actually, this is what we're going to have fun with for the next few years. Right. Connecting with my, the leverage of the company, it is, you know, for new M&As and we know we would not actually do any other sort of allocation that did not talk about the leverage, that it was not according to the leverage of the company. This is part of the equation that is being resolved. We're still looking at new opportunities. Having said that, we showed in the beginning of the presentation that greenfield is also something that, you know, the traditional that we were working with. Probably it has some time to accelerate once again, considering the market conditions now, there was no better moment to make the acquisition as we did for AES.
We made the transformation in a moment that, you know, the market does not have this greenfield opportunity at this time. We were very happy to make this acquisition and the numbers showed that it was very successful, practically reaching all of our expectations in terms of synergy and the recovery of the assets as well. Now, where is the company going to look? What are we looking at in terms of flexibility? We have several initiatives that you've been looking at as well on the trading side, which is to enhance the capacity of adding value. It's not exactly asset large, but besides on the side of the investment that is not as heavy as we're doing. This increases our capacity of profitability for the company.
We have worked with the trading, the creation of several in this line over time and this generates the planning of the company and opening of the market if it really happens. We're prepared on the side of Gud Energia with Vivo. The company now has several other initiatives that are not necessarily the M&A. It's the growth according to the generation assets to evolve and develop. Because we say, you know, flexibility is the name of the game for the future now for energy companies, not only in Brazil, but around the world. I think the company was, it was good to anticipate this moment. There are challenges, yes, the timing is extremely important and when do you digitalize so you don't have over investment. All of this is an experience that the company is now acquiring a know-how for and we're learning with this.
There's no doubt that this is the future of the electrical sector. The data that we got with as we now created, you know, the strength today it's the third largest generation company in the country. We invested in generation and it's not a need anymore, as we used to see when we created Auren. Our challenge now is on the side of the customer. Fábio, I think Fernando has a question.
Good afternoon. Fernando Manrique from Morgan Stanley. Mateus talked about the fiscal optimization as one of the leverages that helps to accelerate the deleveraging. Could you please comment on this benefit and help us to codify it?
Today we have a structure which is suboptimal and for two reasons. We have holding debts. If we get the last emissions that we have, which were in Auren, which is a holding company, not an operational one.
We also have some debts in Brazil, that is Auren. The final picture that is also an important point, we have the hydroelectric assets where we have the actual profit in different companies. The final design, we have to look at a picture where you don't have holding debts anymore and you have the hydroelectric assets concentrated in a single company. We don't have any urgency today because aside from this fiscal inefficiency, the structure is inefficient. We don't have an impact of this inefficiency now because since we have these two things, there's no fiscal inefficiency, not too big, but it's going to increase over time. We have to allocate the right vehicles to have this optimization, fiscal optimization, as mentioned. Thank you.
I just wanted to get an update in terms of capacity and what you're looking at in terms of the timing, saying that this ordinance was already moving. I just wanted to know from you about the auction.
Thank you, João. Thank you for the question. We basically have the same information as you do, and we don't have predictability about the date or when things are going to move forward. In terms of the new data about the auction, we know that it is extremely necessary. Every month that we delay this process afterwards, it's going to affect our operation and definitely with the resources that we have. This probably would have to happen, have happened already and with the auction from the previous year, so that the hydroelectric power plants will be able to go in with new capacity.
We know that as time goes by, the hydroelectric power plants, not that it becomes less competitive, but it takes longer to operate, and then they're able to add capacity faster as well.
So.
We're reducing the attraction for the investors and we need the niche from another source. I think this is something that has to be observed so that you can have a competitive auction. In order for it to be good for investment, it would have to go as quickly as possible, but there's no information, no additional information. Okay, we don't have any more questions. After Fábio does the closing, we're going to end the transmission and invite you to lunch. Thank you once again for joining us. Fábio will give us the final remarks.
Thank you, Luiz. Just very quickly, I wanted to put the last slide of the presentation here. This is a little bit of the presentation. It was to fill in a few of the initiatives and how the company has done things on a daily basis.
The company is adapting to the changes in the sector and adjusting to the changes. In the short term, the incorporation of AES was the priority the company had. I think now in March, with the conclusion and the integration of SAP, in less than a year, we're going to declare the end of the transition and the incorporation of the AES assets. There will be other opportunities in this portfolio. It's quite big and most of the portfolio has already been worked on. In the long term, it's the commitment the company has. I think the first phrase is, you know, consistent results, a commitment with all of the stakeholders that live with the company today and trying to improve the generation of results, the communities we work in, our collaborators, and our shareholders.
This is the direction of the company and we're engaged as well as everybody who helps me here with the company in the generation of value and results. Thank you very much for your participation. Thank you for dedicating your morning to Auren and we're available to answer any questions about the presentations and to talk about the future of the market and the company. Thank you.