AXIA Energia SA (BVMF:AXIA6)
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May 15, 2026, 5:07 PM GMT-3
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Earnings Call: Q1 2026

May 7, 2026

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to AXIA Energia's conference for the discussion of the results for the first quarter of 2026. Present here today are Mr. Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President of AXIA Energia; Mr. Eduardo Haiama, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Mr. Antonio Varejão de Godoy, Executive Vice President of Operations and Security; Ms. Camila Araujo, Executive Vice President of Governance and Sustainability; Mr. Elio Wolff, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development; Mr. Italo Freitas, Executive Vice President of Commercialization and Energy Solutions; Mr. Juliano Dantas, Executive Vice President of Technology and Innovation; Mr. Marcelo de Siqueira Freitas, Executive Vice President of Legal Affairs; Mr. Renato Carreira, Vice President of Learning, People, and Services; Mr. Robson Pinheiro de Campos, Executive Vice President of Engineering and Projects; Mr. Rodrigo Limp, Executive Vice President of Regulation, Institutional, and Market.

We would like to inform that this event is being recorded and will be made available on the company's Investor Relations website, along with the presentation being shared today, both in Portuguese and English. To view the presentation in your preferred language, select the corresponding tab located in the upper left corner of the screen, Portuguese screen or English screen. For those who require simultaneous translation, the tool is available via the globe icon, labeled Interpretation, located at the bottom center of your screen. Upon selecting it, please choose your preferred language. For those listening to the video conference in English, there is an option to mute original audio in Portuguese by clicking on mute original audio. For the Q&A session, if you would like to ask a question, please use the Q&A icon at the bottom of your screen, providing your name, company, and question.

As per our standard procedure, your name will be announced so that you can ask your question live. At that time, a request to unmute your microphone will appear on your screen. If you prefer not to open your microphone, please inform this in the Q&A field alongside your question so that our operator can read it out loud. Before we proceed, we would like to clarify that any statements made during this conference call regarding the company's business outlook, projections, operational and financial goals, constitutes the beliefs and assumptions of AXIA Energia's executive management, as well as information currently available to the company. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance as they involve risks and uncertainties, and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic conditions and other operational factors may affect the results expressed in such forward-looking statements.

Now, we invite Mr. Ivan Monteiro, President of AXIA Energia, to begin the presentation. Please, Ivan, you may proceed.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro
President, AXIA Energia

Good morning and thank you all for attending AXIA's earnings conference call for the first quarter of 2026. We maintain the trajectory of consistent improvement of our results, reflecting the changes implemented by the directors after the company's privatization in 2022. We would like to highlight the simplification of administrative and operational sides focused on governance improvement, agility and adaptation to the new strategy. Continuous reduction of expenses and costs and increase in productivity. Active portfolio management focused on end customers. A reduction of relevant contingencies in different natures, highlighting the compulsory loan. Expressive management and focused on the transmission assets and reinforcement and improvements of our assets. Discipline in capital allocation and strong growth in the shareholder payment.

I also highlight the beginning of the succession process in the company's governance with the active participation and leadership of the board of directors as set forth in our bylaws. I now turn the floor to our CFO to detail the earnings. Thank you.

Eduardo Haiama
EVP of Finance and Investor Relations, AXIA Energia

Thank you, Ivan. Good morning, everyone. Moving on to the quarter highlights on slide seven. The first is EBITDA, reaching BRL 8.6 billion, up 60% year-on-year. Mainly due to the generation segment and the prices this year are higher than last year. On the right side, along with the higher EBITDA, our investments continue to grow. We increased transmission investments in close to 50%, and global investments by 30%. Income is basically a reflection of the operational result. We maintain an avenue of growth, winning the reserve capacity auction with 190 MW of power.

That was the auction, but the turbine itself that will be added is larger. It's almost 250 MW of power at the plant. In terms of operational efficiency, our PMSO continues to go down by 3%, we are constantly improving our operations. As for governance, the board has approved, along with the shareholders, the migration to B3's Novo Mercado, the highest level of governance at B3. At the same time, the board also approved the delisting of the Level II ADR at the New York Stock Exchange. Finally, at the board meeting that assessed the results of the first quarter, as already expected in our capital allocation methodology, there was an approval of an allocation of capital of BRL 4 billion, reinforcing our commitment to financial discipline for shareholder value creation and investment capacity.

It is important to note that every quarter we will be running this methodology, and this number may change over time as we deliver more results. The following slide number eight, brings a summary of our earnings, with regulatory revenue growing by 7% in generation. At the lower cost that we delivered, our EBITDA grew 60% compared to the previous year. That reflected on our IFRS net income, reaching BRL 3.7 billion. Slide number nine, getting a little bit into the investments. As we mentioned, investments grew in transmission close to 50% this quarter compared to the previous year, and overall investments at around 36%. The chart on the left shows the investment, BRL 691 million in the quarter, including investment in transmission, reinforcements and improvements, not only small, but also large scale.

On the right, we highlight the investments already approved for large scale improvement and reinforcement. When we combine all the investments in previous auctions and new lines and all the large scale investments already approved, we've reached the contracted investment of BRL 15 billion that will be, once implemented, translated into an RAP of close to BRL 2 billion. Slide number 10. Going back to our participation in the auction, we will be adding to our system almost 250 MW of installed capacity. At the auction that we participated, we offered 190 MW, with an annual revenue of BRL 1.4 million per MW. Slide 11. In terms of portfolio optimization, we continue to optimize it, uncrossing our stake in IE Madeira and IE Garanhuns with ISA Energia, receiving close to BRL 1.2 billion in this transaction.

On the other disposal, the divestment we made of four lines that are relatively small, receiving BRL 451 million with the sale of that stake. That maintaining our focus of optimizing our minority stakes, our capital discipline, and streamlining the corporate structure. Now on energy trading, slide number 13, and this is a slide that we always show in our earnings conference calls. Now, the position that we had in the first quarter with our own resources of approximately 16 GW on the left, upper left corner, with purchases of 1.2 GW and sales in the regulated market with quotas of 1.2 GW and ACR sales to distributors of 3.7 GW. This usually will show the breakdown of submarkets where this power, this energy is allocated.

What's important to note here with this breakdown by submarket is that when we look at the next two slides, we see the effect, both due to hydrology that impacted price and how that influenced the trading margin this quarter. Moving on to slide 14. We have here the spot price, PLD, that went from BRL 160 in the first quarter of last year to BRL 300. Since about 60% of our energy are available, energy for trading is in the north and northeast regions, this increase significantly impacted the results, unlike last year when the price was more defined. On the right side, we show two charts showcasing the seasonality expected both for GSF purposes and how it would impact if we had that same curve in our portfolio.

As you can see, in the first quarter, at the bottom, we would have 12.5 GW average available to allocate in the free market. This energy, as time goes by and GSF goes down, will reach 8 GW in the third quarter, reaching as much as 10 GW, starting again at the fourth quarter. All that to say that this first quarter had a combination, the perfect combination of the price increase and the PLD price with the larger amount of energy available, that's a seasonal aspect. On slide number 15, we explained a little bit about this different behavior compared to the previous year. First, on the left, is the starting point of the reservoirs. We ended December of the previous year at actually 45% at the reservoirs. From 2024 to 2025, we had 53%.

What happened was that the rainy season that in the previous year had been very good in December, January, and February, which influenced not only the trajectory of the level of the reservoirs, but also the price that you see on the chart in the right side. This year, the opposite occurred. This year, we started not only from a lower level in the reservoir level, but the rainy season started with fewer rains, and it only gained speed more recently. Last year, it stopped raining at around mid-February. This year, it started raining heavily by mid-February, in such a way that the level of the reservoirs that on the bottom left side ended at the same level in March than the previous year. The trajectory of how we reached that same level was quite different.

That's why the price trajectory that we see on the right side, showing the bars with the prices in the southeast and north, northeast sub-markets were very different. What's the price expectation? That's the table on the bottom right side for the second quarter and the second half of the year. Noting that we're at the same reservoir level as the previous year, and the rainy season's already finished. When we look at the end of March 31st, the market expectation for prices in the second quarter this year, BRL 233 . In the second half, BRL 299 .

When we look at the actual price of the previous year, BRL 216, BRL 259, we see that the markets are behaving appropriately due to the risk perceived in the first quarter that changed compared to what it was or what it had been projected. Once we got to the rainy season at the same level, the numbers are very similar to what we actually had in 2025. Getting into sustainability and governance. Slide 17, we show our hard, intense work to improve the security level, the safety level at Colíder HPP. We're very pleased with the results, especially considering the time where this work was done.

We'd also like to highlight the social projects that we do a lot, but we don't talk about so much, such as the Lagos de São Francisco project, when we have social returns close to BRL 20 million , working in different municipalities around the São Francisco River, strengthening and supporting family farming, livestock breeding, and environmental protection and preservation. On slide 18, we detail a little bit of what Ivan already mentioned about the beginning of the succession process. We will be creating, starting on June 1st, a vice presidency, as you can see in the flowchart on the right, that will be led by Elio Wolff. This vice presidency will be in place until April 30th of next year, when it will be extinguished. All of this structure starts to report again directly to the CEO.

On June 1st, with the creation of this new vice presidency, we will extinguish or dissolve the Strategy and Business Development Vice Presidency. With that, we reaffirm our commitment to the long-term strategy of always acting in a detailed, focused, planned way, always thinking about the long term. On slide 19, we have the streamlining of the corporate structure. As we had mentioned, the shareholders approved the migration to Novo Mercado, the highest governance level of B3. We expect to conclude within the next months, maybe or within the next few weeks, concluding this migration. At the same time, the board also approved the listing of the Level II ADRs at the New York Stock Exchange, consolidating the liquidity in the Brazilian market, the shares in the Brazilian market.

Finally, on slide number 20, we'd like to talk a little bit more about the redemptions that may occur in the PNC shares. As we said, in this quarter, as we do every quarter, we reassessed our capital allocation methodology, where the board approved the capital allocation of BRL 4 billion. One of the ways of allocating that capital is the return to shareholders, and one of the instruments we have available is precisely the potential redemption of PNC shares. How will this process unfold? Noting what was approved in December was that the board of directors responsible for defining the amount and the timeline of the execution. If today the board decided to redeem today PNC shares, the price we would use would be the price of the previous day, which is the second bullet.

At this time, it triggers an entire timeline to allow shareholders who do not want to redeem to ask for conversion to ordinary shares in whole or in part so that we can continue. Either with the conversion or with the redemption for those who want to do so. Noting that the conversion timeline, there is one part that's automatic. 4 percentage points annually from 2026 to 2030 will be converted, and any remaining balance in 2031 will be converted into ON shares, the PNCs will disappear. This conversion timeline may be accelerated by the board or the board has the discretion of instead of letting it be converted automatically or accelerating the conversion of PNC shares into ON shares, they may approve redemptions at any time in that mechanism that I was talking about. I think with that, we conclude the presentation, and we can move on to the Q&A session. Thank you.

Operator

We will now begin the Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please provide your name and company via the Q&A icon at the bottom of your screen. We kindly ask you to ask all of your questions at the same time, waiting for the companies to answer. To ask your questions in writing, just submit it through the Q&A icon, including your name and company. Please hold while we gather the questions. First question, Maria Carolina at Banco Safra. Please, Maria Carolina, you may go ahead. Maria Carolina, your microphone is enabled. You may ask your question, please.

Maria Carolina Carneiro
Analyst, Banco Safra

Hello. Do you hear me now?

Operator

Yes, please go ahead.

Maria Carolina Carneiro
Analyst, Banco Safra

Good morning. Thank you for this call. Two questions. First, about the trading strategy, energy trading strategy.

Looking at the quarter's balance compared to the fourth quarter for 2026 and 2027, the range that you included of the available balance for energy sale had a slight increase, which makes us feel like you became a little bit longer. It's I know it's a range, but it's more trying to understand the trend. If there's a reason for the strategy to maybe include more energy purchases, just to try and understand that a little bit better. Clearly, if you can, also give us some visibility of the price trend for the short term with the possible changes of the CVaR methodology that was in public consultation recently. If there was any change in terms of the trading perspective in the market due to that. Those would be my two questions.

Finally, I know you already talked about strategy a little bit, both Ivan and Haiama, but it would be interesting to ask. I mean, the company has delivered excellent results so far. You made a revolution, and that has obviously been proving great in cash generation strategy. It's a whole different company, clearly, but the succession seems to be natural, not a focus on strategy change. But if you can talk a little bit more about the company's strategy. Obviously, Eletrobras today is completely different from Eletrobras two years ago, so it would be interesting to put it into context, Ivan, if you could. That here, maybe if you're thinking about Eletrobras being slightly different looking forward or not, if it's more a matter of running as the company has been doing so far. Thank you.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro
President, AXIA Energia

Thank you, Carol. Thank for your question. First, I'm to turn to Rodrigo Limp. I'll answer the second one.

Rodrigo Limp
EVP of Regulation, Institutional, and Market, AXIA Energia

Good morning, Carol. Thank you for your question. Actually, yes, as you said, we provide a range, a range with limits of energy available. One of the points we have to consider, even with a bigger position available in 2026, 2027 when compared to previous years, is the de-quotization as well that we had. In 2025, we had 40% in quota energy, and 2026, 20%, and in 2027 onwards, we don't have quoted energy of those plants which have been privatized with the change in the de-quotization. That has an influence. Since we don't provide the energy available by sub-market, we always have to consider what was shown on the slide.

The diversification of our portfolio per sub-market in terms of the de-quotization energy, a lot of it in the Northeast, and we had energy in the North as well, that are markets that have lower liquidity, naturally. The Southeast market, we have higher liquidity. That's where we concentrate a lot of our sales, although we made strong efforts to increase sales and trading in the North, Northeast sub-markets, the team led by Italo. With that said, we are advancing with a number of clients in those regions, which are more complex regions in terms of trading. About the future price projections and CVaR discussion. The CVaR discussion is something that we monitor very closely. It's a very relevant discussion in the context of the price formation process.

Going back, what's been enhanced in many items, even getting to 2021 with the introduction of the PLD/hour, in 2024, the approval of the hybrid model and the change in parameters of risk aversion starting in 2025. Annually, there have been discussions, and the CNSA has been deciding, including ONS and ANEEL, to set the parameters for the next year, for the following year. They opened the public hearing. We contributed. We have a view that the price formation process has evolved a lot. Today, we have a price formation based on the models that certainly still need to be enhanced. Today, in our view, it's a lot closer to the actual cost of the operation, which in practice is not the model, doesn't have to define higher or lower prices.

It must reflect the cost of the operation, and we have been verifying that. It's been discussed. For example, the lower amount of thermal power generation that brings a reduction of rates. We have defended the maintenance of those parameters of 15-40. In our perception, that's what brings greater balance in terms of cost and energy security. We naturally work with other scenarios when we assess price projections. We consider maintenance. That's the scenario that we stand for, that we understand to be the most suitable in terms of energy security and cost to the system. We work with price ranges, and we've been seeing in recent weeks a reduction of prices for this year that is a result of the increase in the rain forecast for the South region. We have that outlook for the coming weeks.

That forecast actually combines with the entry of El Niño, that although there's expected more rains in the South, there's always a forecast of higher temperatures, which actually go to the other way in bringing prices up. What's uncertain is until when El Niño will act and how intense it's going to be. El Niño usually has higher rains, heavier rains in the South and lower rains in the North. If it goes on to the end of the year, beginning of next year, there may be relevant effects in prices for the next year.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro
President, AXIA Energia

Thank you, Limp. First, Carol, I would like to thank your kind observation about the work that has been done here at AXIA.

This is a joint work, a joint effort of the board and the executive directors and everyone who work here. We have the pleasure of having at AXIA shareholders with long-term views and board representatives reflecting that philosophy. It could not be different. The company that we have built for 40, 50 years. The assets continue to produce, generate, and transmit and trade energy. We are very happy. There will be no change to the strategy, the strategy defined by the board of directors and the executive directors. We always have the perspective, Carol, of having a company that looks at decades. We are very satisfied that the board positioned in favor of a peaceful, mature process with a timeline that allows us to make this transaction, this transition rather, very smoothly. That's the objective.

All of the decisions are a result of all the support we receive from the board of directors. I'd like to thank you for your remarks that have been shared by the board and the directors and all of AXIA employees.

Maria Carolina Carneiro
Analyst, Banco Safra

Excellent. Thank you.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro
President, AXIA Energia

Thank you, Carol.

Operator

Noting that to ask a question, please inform your name and company through the Q&A icon. If you want to ask a question in writing, submit it on the same icon with your name and company. Next question, Fillipe Andrade, Itaú BBA. Please, Fillipe, you may go ahead.

Fillipe Andrade
Analyst, Itaú BBA

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I'd like to hear about AXIA's perception of two things.

First, how does the company see the move of some associations defending regulatory changes in the market dynamics or energy trading, the replacement of liquidity, and how AXIA understands that if there's any legal support that could be explored by those associations that could force a change in the market dynamic. The second point is precisely addressing the integration of thermal plants in the reserve capacity auction and the reviews that we see in the second quarter, how AXIA sees the modulation scenario in this horizon and the integration of those thermal plants. Thank you.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro
President, AXIA Energia

Thank you, Fillipe. I'll turn the floor to Rodrigo.

Rodrigo Limp
EVP of Regulation, Institutional, and Market, AXIA Energia

Thank you, Fillipe. We've been monitoring the discussion about the liquidity in the market, but we have a very clear view or position. Going back to the previous answer about the enhancement of models and the price reflecting the cost of the operation, we see some questions about the volatility of prices. There was a point in March where we had the minimum price during the day and the maximum price at the end of the day. There's some criticism to that point. When we look at our power generation throughout the day, a result of the change in matrix, our perception is that the model is responding well. We have a lot of supply throughout the day, basically sun power or solar power. We have more than 50 GW of installed capacity. There's the focus of generation during the day due to a surplus of solar and wind generation. At the end of the day, it's the opposite.

We need to trigger thermal plants and hydro plants being called to supply and sometimes exceeding 40 GW. That's natural to see the volatility of prices. That's not an exclusive factor of Brazil. More mature markets have even higher volatility. This perception is a reflection of the matrix. That, bringing the aspect of liquidity that's also in the discussion of price formation and the increase in volatility, in practice, there's the risk of counterparts that the agents today are more risk-averse, considering what's been happening with a lot of traders not being able to live up to their commitments, a lot getting into judicial reorganization processes. That brings higher risk aversion to the agents. Here, we've been increasing our criterion to evaluate the economic financial capacity of people or companies we trade with, especially looking at longer horizons.

We understand very clearly that we don't see a structural liquidity crisis, maybe conjunctural because of the risk of counterparts, but nothing structural in the sector. The indicators that CCE itself releases in energy volatility, we don't see any elements that confirm that perception of a lower liquidity in terms of structure in the market. Going back to the argument, we don't see any technical support or even legal basis to promote any regulatory change in that sense. Even the price formation process is completely detached from the agent's commercial position. If the agent's long or short, it does not influence the price formation process since our price is formed by models, and that's a variable that is not considered. The fact that the sector being more or less liquid does not influence at all the price formation process.

We don't see technical basis or legal basis for these claims to proceed. About the LRCAP, the reserve capacity auction, we are waiting for the approval. Once it is registered, the thermal plants will actually enter the deck, and that brings some effect. The model starts to see those thermal plants, even the recent ones that were not contracted, in a new horizon up to 2030 and 2031. It doesn't get into the deck this year. That brings more safety to the model when it sees a higher availability or a higher generation capacity, which naturally reduces the deficit risk in the future horizon, reducing the future cost function. The modulation will have an effect considering the thermal plants. A lot of them have been raised. When they're called to dispatch, there may be a trend to effective modulation.

Fillipe Andrade
Analyst, Itaú BBA

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, in order to ask a question, please click on the raise hand icon. The questions- and- answers session is concluded. I will turn the floor to Mr. Ivan Monteiro for the company's closing remarks.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro
President, AXIA Energia

I thank you all for attending. Any additional questions may be submitted to the Investor Relations department. Thank you very much.

Operator

AXIA Energia's conference call is concluded. We thank you all for attending. Have a great day.

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