Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Feb 19, 2020

Good morning. Welcome to Minerva's 4th Quarter of 2019 Results Conference Call. Today, we have with us Fernando Quiros, Chief Executive Officer at Centrico, CFO and Investor Relations Officer. We wish to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen only mode during the company's presentation. And then we will have a Q and A for analysts and investors where more information will be given. If you need any information or help, please just mark star 0. See audio is also on the Internet at www.minervafoods dotcomir and the MZiQ platform. The slideshow can also be downloaded from the webcast platform in the Investor Relations section of this website. Before proceeding, we wish to mention that forward looking statements may be made during this presentation relating to Minerva's business prospects, operating and financial estimates and goals. They are based on beliefs and premises of the company management on information currently available. This involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may or not happen. Investors must understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors may also affect Minerva's future results and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in these statements. I will now give the call to Mr. Fernando Queroz, CEO, who will begin the presentation. Mr. Queroz, you may begin the presentation. Well, good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in Minerva's 4th quarter 2019 earnings conference call. Let's begin our presentation talking about our strategy, our business strategy and the perspectives for the coming years, starting on Slide 2. 2019 was fundamental to consolidate Minerva's business model. The complete integration of our operations, expanding the benefits of our geographical diversification and of the of the operational and financial performance the company has been presenting over the years. Going forward, we are working to expand competitive advantages, which differentiate us from the market, also with increasingly balanced strategy, implementing new programs on operational efficiency, improving our financial management to seek lower risks and greater profitability. Also, we focus on people management through training, meritocracy and with great focus on succession and leadership program development program. The nation of factors to impact our industry in the coming years. The first, the swine fever, which is ASF that continues to impact meat production in China. It is worth mentioning that the outbreak is not limited to that country. It has spread through Asia and part of Eastern Europe. Moreover, the structural shift on consumer habits in Southeast Asia, resulting from greater urbanization, middle class expansion and Western consumer habits. We also have to add Australia's lowest beef production, one of our main competitors. This landscape results the opening of new markets for South American exporting countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia, and the opportunity to occupy the gap less by Australia. New markets, new qualifications are reality. Given this promising landscape, Minerva's strategy is to continue maximizing our competitive advantages, investing innovation, risk management, market intelligence to achieve more commercial and logistics solutions, arbitrating markets and waiting for disruptions to become opportunities. In addition, we have a competitive advantage with our sustainability practices as an important entry barrier for companies that do not follow these standards, opening doors to markets that value environmental animal welfare social practices, marking a difference from the main competitors. In our market consolidation strategy, China is the key destination. It's a market with sustainable growth, growing demand of proteins coming from South America, therefore, from our JV, our team local footprint, we can have we are able to collect data, information and strengthen ties with clients, consumers and niche opportunities to become a more efficient player. This is a unique moment for the beef industry and we at Minerva are very well prepared to develop and take advantage of these opportunities. We will now move to Slide 3 and start our results presentation. Slide 3. We progressed on important fronts of our operation, always guided by our efficient management, ethics sustainability of our business model. All this progress was translated into excellent results for the 4th Q and 2019. Let's start by presenting our cash performance, which is top priority for Minerva. In this past Q4, Minerva's operating cash flow totaled BRL 2.40 1,000,000 and closed the year at BRL1.8 billion. For the 8th consecutive quarter, we presented positive cash flow generation with $92,000,000 of BRLs in free cash flow during the Q4 of BRL29,000,000 BRL 787,000,000 in each fresh free cash flow for the year 2019. This is a key indicator, which reflects our operational financial excellence. Consolidated gross revenue in the 4th quarter totaled for BRL 5 point 2 billion, while on the last 12 months it peaked a record of BRL 18.2 billion. The breakdown of our gross revenue among our 3 divisions resulted in 51 percent for the Brazilian Industry Division or BRL2.6 billion. Hatina Fus accounted for BRL2.1 billion, which is 41% and the trading division was responsible for the remaining 8%, BRL440 million. Export accounted for 68% of Minerva's consolidated gross revenue in the Q4, which is an increase of 19% for the year 2019. Exports accounted for 66% of gross revenue, mirroring the strong international demand for beef and consolidating our strategy to focus on export markets, the most profitable markets. In the Q4 2019, EBITDA attained BRL603 1,000,000, a record against the company's historical quarters and a strong 30% growth on annual base. EBITDA margin reaching 12.4%, the highest ever recorded by Minerva and 2 30 bps higher than the previous quarter. For the year 2019, EBITDA totaled a record of BRL1.7 billion with EBITDA margin at 10.2%. Our operating performance for the year reflects not only the strong demand for beef and positive landscape for the industry, but also Minerva's excellence in managing its operations. Our bottom line result came in at BRL 243,600,000 in the 4th quarter in 2019, reverting the accumulated net loss and closing 2019 with a positive net result of BRL16.2 million. Besides Minerva's good operational financial performance, we have to highlight the evolution of the company's capital structure. Our leverage measured by the net debt EBITDA ratio and adjusted for the proceeds from the follow on offering was reduced to 2.8, the lowest ratio on recent years. We ended the year with a strong cash position, which added to the proceeds from the follow on totaled BRL5.5 billion. Also on this topic, our follow on offering contributed to Minerva's deleverage plan, a commitment made by company's management a few years ago. The equity offering, which brought in approximately BRL 1,000,000,000 in the new funds to the company, was the 2nd step on the plan that began at the end of 2018 through the private capital increase of BRL 965,000,000, which was complemented by with a recent follow on in which 80,000,000 new shares issued with proceeds entirely dedicated to the reduction of Minerva's debt. We also highlight that in the scope of 2018 private capital increase, there are approximately BRL121,000,000 outstanding warrants in the market, which represent extra cash flow of roughly BRL779 1,000,000 until the end of 2021, improving our financial flexibility, improving our capital structure and reducing our risk profile. Finally, I also highlight the Board's Director's approval of a new policy for income allocation, which increases Minerva's ability to pay dividends. And effect of its more balanced capital structure and in line with our strategy to generate value to our shareholders. Let's go to Slide 4. Let's begin with exports. In 2019, Minerva ranked the largest beef exporter in South America with a market share of approximately 20%. Our geographical diversification in South America and supported by our 15 international offices. This is an important competitive advantage for Minerva in the global beef market. We are market leaders in Argentina for exports, Paraguay and Colombia and second in Brazil and Uruguay. Now let's drill down at the regional performance. At the Brazilian Industry Division, the 2 main export destinations were Asia and Middle East, which together accounted account for more than half of the division's exports. Asia accounts for almost 40%, an increase of 12 percentage points mirroring the new qualifications for China, which strongly impacted the Q4 of 2019. As for Athena Foods, Asia also is its main export destiny. Accounting for almost 50% of the division's exports, 10 percentage points higher compared to 2018, also impacting impacted by the strong and increasing demand from China. It's also worth noting the strong demand from Asia, especially China. It's something it has grown. This is something that has been expanding organically and steadily over the past 10 years. In 2019, demand hiked due to swine fever causing beefy ports to rise, a scenario that is expected to continue going forward. Given seriousness of the outbreak and the fact that it has reached Europe, finally the change in consumer habits in the region, especially in China. This is a structural movement that will result in great opportunities for beef exports mainly for South American players. Due to their growing capacity in competitiveness, the JV with Chinese partners since last October is expected to begin operations in 2020 early 2020 and is important tool to maximize these opportunities and to position Minerva as a prominent player in Asia, especially in China. I will now give the floor to Edson. He will speak a little bit more about Minerva's operational financial highlights. Thank you, Fernando. Let us start at Slide 5. Now initially, I'd like to talk about our operating performance. On the top left side corner, it's showing the breakdown of the company's gross revenue per division. In the Q4, the Brazilian Industry division was responsible for 51%, while Athena Fus contributed at 41%. And trading division with 8% of gross revenue for the year of 2019 and approximately 47 percent of Minerva's gross revenues was originated in the Brazilian division, 40% came from Athena Fus, 13% from the trading division. This way, the capacity utilization rate was approximately 77% during the 4th quarter of 2019, while at Acinafus, it was approximately 80%. That's on the right side of the slide. We want to talk about the consolidated installed capacity reached 78% in the Q4 of 2019. We have 2 new plants accredited since September. With this, the total of agro is 78 exported in the quarter, exported to China with 26 percentage points at the annual basis in the year 29. Total to Asia was 43%, 34% to China compared to 21% in 2018, a growth of 13 percentage points. I would now like to talk about financial and operating results on the next slide. Slide 6, please. Let us begin with net revenue results, which peaked BRL 4,900,000,000 in the Q4 2019, increasing by 5% on the annual basis and 8% compared to the Q3 of 2019. As Fernando said at the beginning of the presentation, we have an EBITDA of BRL 603,000,000 in the 4th quarter, increase of 30% compared to the quarter of 2018 Q3 of 2019. Our EBITDA margin was at historical high, reaching 12.4%, reflecting Minerva's good market conditions and operating performance. The EBITDA for 2019 was more than BRL 1,800,000,000 increase an increase of 13% and the highest level ever registered by the company. Now we will go to Slide 7, financial leverage. Over the past 2 years, the company's management made a very clear commitment with the market to reduce Minerva's debt level. In this context, besides the company's excellent operational financial performance and consequent cash generation, we also work toward the improvement of our capital structure. We initially began with a private capital increase in 2018, which increased our cash by almost BRL 1,000,000,000 and now we recently raised approximately BRL 1,000,000,000 through a primary equity offering. BRL1 1,000,000,000 in January was concluded. As a result, we reduced our leverage to the last year's lowest level, and our net debt to EBITDA ratio came in at BRL 2 point 8,000,000,000, including the proceeds from the offering. This slide illustrates the results achieved with this effort over the past few years. In summary, we had a strong EBITDA growth, which increased by 72% since 2015, along with a significant leverage reduction from 4.1x in 2015. Even with the effects of the Brazilian real, the currency devaluation and the impact on our gross debt, I want to highlight additional points. As you may know, we have approximately BRL779,000,000 to reinforce the company's cash position by the end of 2021, which is related to private capital increase and warrants not exercised not executed, which will contribute to further improve our capital structure. Moving on to the next slide. Slide 8, we can see the Q4 of 2019. Our net income was positive by BRL244 1,000,000, which allowed us to reverse accumulated loss for the year. Therefore, Minerva's net income totaled BRL16.2 million in 2019. When adjusting this result for non cash effects such as monetary restatements, exchange rate variations and hedge, the company recorded a profit of BRL 325,000,000. Now the cash generation, the cash flow from operating activities was BRL 241,000,000 in the quarter. The 4th well, the main impact on working capital in the Q4 was on the receivables account since it was just illustrated that 40% of our total sales were just into Asia, which has a longer cash conversion cycle. For the year, the improvement of working capital metrics allowed us to return approximately BRL 3 70 that contributed to close the year with a little bit more than BRL 1,800,000,000 of operating cash flow. Now let's look at Slide 9. In the Q4 2019, free cash flow reached BRL92 1,000,000. EBITDA, excluding nonrecurring items, was BRL598 1,000,000 in the quarter. Investment totaled BRL 63,000,000 cash basis. Financial result was negative by BRL 316 1,000,000. And finally, working capital consumed BRL102 1,000,000 to BRL 132 1,000,000, as I just mentioned. Thus, adjusted for nonrecurring items, our free cash flow was positive by approximately BRL92 1,000,000 in the quarter. In 2019, and expressive free cash flow result of BRL 787,000,000, the highest level ever for the company. The buildup of results is as follows: record EBITDA in BRL 19,000,000,000 with maintenance and expansion investments of BRL 221,000,000. Financial results on cash basis, including the hedge, was BRL 1,200,000,000 and a positive variation in working capital sneezed by BRL 371,000,000, which added to this BRL 61,000,000 impact to BRL's nonrecurring items amounted to a recurring free cash flow of BRL 787,000,000. For the biennium 2018, 2019, Minerva had an expressive free cash generation of approximately BRL1.5 billion. I'd like to go to the last slide to talk about our capital structure. As we already said, our leverage ratio measured by net debt to EBITDA in the last 12 months, including proceeds from our follow on offering was reduced to 2.8 times, the lowest level reported in recent years. The company's cash position was BRL4.5 billion at the end of 2019 and was reinforced by the proceeds from the equity offering hitting BRL5.5 billion. Talking about our debt profile, our U. S. Dollar index debt represents approximately 77% of our total debt with a duration of approximately 5 years. It is worth mentioning that our balance sheet hedge policy requires protection of at least 50% of our long term exposure. Finally, at the end of 2019, around 30% of the debt was on short term. However, considering the proceeds from the follow on, we will reduce our short term debt level to approximately 19% over the next month, in line with our commitment to dedicate 100% of the follow on proceeds to pay down short term debt. We'll persist. We conclude our results presentation. I will now give the floor for the operator for a Q and A session. Thank you. Thank you. We will now begin our Q and A session for investors and analysts. Before proceeding, we wish to mention that the questions in English shall be put through only through the webcast. First question is from Mr. Marcelo Moraes from Santo Andre. The first question I have is about coronavirus. Could you give us some detail about the coronavirus, the COVID-nineteen? How has this going to impact the Q1, 2nd? And in the consolidated of the semester, do you think this might have a price effect? This is my first question. The second question is about how do you see 2020, the availability of cattle herd in each market? I'll first talk about coronavirus. What we see in China currently is a bottleneck in the ports and the producers. So there was a consumption of all the beef that was already in China. The prices in China and the domestic market are hiking at levels never seen, much higher than October, November when it reached its peak. And we have this is due to the lack of transport from the port to the final destiny. So coronavirus virus is causing an imbalance between availability. Now we must observe that structurally China continues to be short. They continue kneading beef. So if you put the Australia's condition, the situation happening there, it's a question of timing. It's a question of a moment that this effect has in China. So we're following. We have positive information coming this week. And since the 10th February when the market Chinese market started flowing, they started taking things out of the containers. At least we have fixed signing, signaling that there is a possible positive recovery. There are some time gaps. But in macro, China continues short due to the swine fever, due to the due to these terrible situation in Australia and the sanitary issues that they have to solve first. Now regarding the herds, cattle herd availability, it varies from country to country. So we have Brazil, very favorable for retention. Our pastures and grazelands are very positive. Now we must remember that in Brazil, the price is determined by the domestic market. So we have followed the domestic market. Argentina is in a positive moment with some competitiveness. Paraguay also has been very productive and Uruguay is getting organized and structured. Uruguay is going back to normality with a reduction of the price of live cattle. So in Colombia, the same as Uruguay. So we see that it's quite normal in South America. But the foreign market is going to have a very important weight. This is Minerva's strategy. Focus on the external market, foreign markets. And most of our income comes from exports. And this is where we begin that there's going to be an enormous gap and a big opportunity. Thank you, Fernando. Could you allow me another question? It's not very clear to me the trading issue because there's a trading revenue has shrunk. Could you explain to me how this happened? This is Edson, the CFO speaking. Well, it did shrink because of internal exports of live cattle in Brazil. The drop was totally due to the live cattle and also an important drop in the volume of our energy provider as compared the last two terms. These are the factors that caused trading operations to suffer the reduction that you saw in the 4th quarter. Well, this reduction of live cattle, is there a specific reason? Is this just momentary? Well, you see, the operation of live cattle has been losing importance for Minerva as well as the market, generally speaking. It's basically arbitrage. And in certain periods, this arbitrage simply is not worth it based on the return on capital. So every trading operation in this, it's to do with the opportunity. So there's a possibility of revenue and result, which is quite substantial. But it's nothing structural. And I wouldn't say that it's sort of timely. No, I'd say that it's just a situation of the market that we something that happened in the market in the Q4. Well, thank you then for the question. Now we have a question here from Pedro about dividends. With the higher EBITDA, it will be below 2.5 times in is this a trigger for debentures? Does it have to be below 2.5? Pedro Leduc is my name. Well, as our new policy for dividends is that to increase the payout of 25% to 50% is whenever the leverage in the year end of the year ends equal or lower than 2.5 times. So at the end of the year, if it's 2.5 or below, the Board has decided we'll suggest an additional dividend of 25%, plus the 25% that the bylaws of the company demands. So my answer to you is no. According to the new policy, your question is no. Now the Board who is the board decides on the dividend payments during the quarter, maybe they might decide to make a dividend payment now at the end of the quarter. Now if you're going to follow the rule that was approved by the Board and it has been released, it's this will only happen at the end of the calendar year. Our next question is from Isabella from Bank of America. Thank you, Fernando. Fernando and Edson. A follow-up of material about coronavirus. I would like to give more information about what is being negotiated. In other words, there is a fondue. Are things that you're holding back? Is there a drop in demand of the Chinese besides the logistic issues that we know? Or is the demand weaker? And the second question is the capacity in Brazil. We saw a drop in capacity because the export or the price of the cattle at the end of November. I would like to know if there's any other reason. And how can we think of the use for 2020? China has picked up since February 10. So we have seen orders, bids coming from China now. So as I said at Marcel's question, we have clear signaling that there is a pickup and a normalization of the flow. And this is also in Hong Kong and other markets, which are markets complementary to China. At the Work Weekly report, they talk about exactly this point that China is picking up their interest. So besides the fact that we feel this in Minerva, we see this in the market as a whole. About capacity, we came close to 80% at the end of the year, capacity building. And in 2020, I think we can close to 85%. Perhaps this would be the maximum in this industry because there's a time for stopping for maintenance reasons and hygiene reasons. So I would say 85% during this year. Well, thank you. I understood that. Thank you. Another question from Thiago from BTG Pactual. Thiago, go ahead. Well, good morning, Fernando. Fernando Etao. Good morning to everyone. I would like to ask you two questions. The first one, of the EBITDA margin, the gross margin, more specifically, I would like to understand how much do you think that this positive result may be simply due to a gain in inventory, the speed that we saw of the acceleration of the price of beef in the last quarter and also the hike in the price of cattle. So from the slaughterhouse until maybe there is an additional margin due to the speed of slaughter and the increase of price. How much do you think you can return this in the Q1 because the price has been the opposite of what happened in the Q4? This is my first question. The second question is about working capital. I would just like to see what your reading is, It were in that line, which is accounts payable, just to understand. Do you understand, because it consumed a lot of working capital in the last quarter, do you think this can improve? Because the deficit of exports is improving a lot with exports to Asia or not? Well, your first question, I will illustrate it with our working capital. It's one of the lowest in the industry. If you see the result of 2018 2019, it dropped in BRLs. In reals, it went from BRL 6.90 to BRL 610 1,000,000. So we do not have a policy to hold inventory to be more profitable and to improve and to have sort of timely opportunities for a better result. No, we don't do that. The gross margin is on one side of the cattle and the price of sale. The price went much up of selling beef than the price of cattle. Although there was a panic in the middle of the quarter with an increase of hiking in the beef price and this happened. So the carryover to cost the cost is what happened during the semester. Although the cattle price in average was worse in the Q3, the sales price were way ahead. So the margin has expanded. Having said this, I may state that the 4th quarter was the first one that we had all our plants accredited to China from Athena Foods. It was the Q1 2019. So of course, this allows us to say that 2020, we're going to have a similar performance that we saw in the Q4 and average. Now it's obvious we have to respect seasonality in the year, which the 1st semester is usually weaker and the margin is worse than the average margin in the year and the 2nd semester where the margins are better and therefore profitability the revenue will be higher than the average margin of the year. Having this in view and having in view the performance of the Q4, I would say, no, it was not something timely. And we do not have this policy that you mentioned of holding back cattle, slaughter, no. The picture is very close to what we will see in average during this whole year of 2020. Your second question is about working capital and the receivables account. Well, it depends on the customers' profiles. If we sell to more customers that never bought previously new customers and clients, we will have more anticipated payment. For example, Indonesia. Indonesia has started buying they're going to start buying with us their orders through the 1st and second quarters. So we're going to have a credit policy, which is going to be more conservative when exporting to Indonesia. The other, the system is the same. It continues working based on the risk profile and the story of this company with this company. The worst situation is I can tell you that in 2020, we may have a result, which is different from what we had in 2019 to for more working capital, but nothing dramatic. It will be totally in line with the natural growth of volume using from 80% to 85%. Thank you, Edson. That was thank you for your question. Next question from Mr. Rehan Prate from Citibank. Well, hi, guys. Well, my question, what are the price perspectives for the Q1? Do you think it's going to drop a lot, the price of beef? Or do you think things will improve as compared to last year? Well, Renaud, it's difficult to have a market perspective. What we see is, as I said in my presentation, that structurally, the supply demand is short in the market, in the international market. The demand continues to expand. The supply, especially from Australia according to Rabobank, is suffering a reduction of 18%, at least for the year of 2020. So this gap is going to be covered with South America. And you add swine fever, you add the coronavirus that's going to impact the domestic market in China. So you will see that the supply and demand will be very short. I would like to add something to this. The markets, they usually complain. If you there's a system of quotas. There is a system of after holidays, post holidays also. So the thermometer is going to be in March. I would like make another comment, says Mr. Keras. The month of February, for example, the export prices in dollars as compared to February last year are increasing around 21%. If you look at the prices in BRLs as compared to last year, they're growing 40%. The volume month by month in the same period is shows an increase of approximately 6%. So this gives us a good indication that what the Q1 closed as compared to the Q1 last year. Next question from Mr. Grande from Bradesco Bank. Good morning, Fernando. Good morning, Eso. Thank you for this opportunity. I have three questions. The first one is how are you going to export chilled beef to these countries? Also, the problem of coronavirus and also new orientations. Australia, yes. Each country has its rules regarding chilled beef. So we have this very much in our hands in the logistics that we have planned. Well, I can say that the big gap that Australia is going to that it has is cattle on grazed land because undoubtedly unfortunately, it's going to be an opportunity for us. About China, nobody really knows what is going to happen. Through our offices and our people there, the level of information is very low. We know there has been a big loss because of coronavirus in poultry and swine fever continues strong. And they don't there's no report. I mean, we don't know the numbers, but generally speaking, I would say this only increases the short. The 3rd person was what was it about? Authorizations with a gap given by Australia, there are going to be new credentials for South America. We are almost opening our market to the U. S. And Japan. We have other important markets like Turkey as well. But I would like to highlight something else. What we see is a clear movement of reducing import reduction of tax imports for South America. They are controlling the price increase and something else which is very favorable for us is the tax reduction of imports of the countries we export to with other countries that have an advantage. So it's 2 movements, new authorizations and a reduction on import taxes. We have one more question from HSBC. Could you please give us some indication of your long term target for EBITDA? We don't give guidance. What we do is the idea is that the company should we'll continue deleveraging. This is from the slaughter of 2.5. We will increase the payment of dividends according to the new dividend policy, but we don't want to have a company under leveraged. So we believe that a leverage around 2 times should have a great target for long term capital. One more question from the Bank of Brazil, Luciana. Good morning, Fernando. My question is about like Isabela's question. With the IPO in the foods, what is your strategy for 2020, 2021 regarding the reopening of plants, continuing the project of Athena Foods. Could you say a few words about this? Thank you. Well, the acquisition of Athena Fus, as it was very clear during the roadshow of the IPO, it would only happen if there is a primary funding at Athena Foods. This is not going to happen. So there's no plans of acquisition at Athena or Minerva at least in the next 2 years. So the IPO doesn't change anything, doesn't change the focus of our company. We continue focusing on growth opportunities and profitability improvement at domestic level, but there is no project at Minerva or Athena Foods for any acquisition. Thank you. I would like to remind all of you to ask a question. You have to to ask a question, all you have to do is put star 0 on your phone and you'll be connected. As there are no further questions, we conclude today's presentation. I will give the floor to Mr. Fernando Quiros for closing remarks. Well, thank you all for attending our teleconference of the 4th quarter 2019, showing us how this year is a new phase for cattle in the world global cattle market. We prepared for this moment. Minerva has its strategy, which is very focused on export and in have special new niche. I would like to thank the whole Minerva team, 18,000 collaborators that brought us to this moment. And also, they are certainly going to take us through the further steps. And I would like to close saying that our biggest objective is to continue to create value for the shareholder. So our focus is to pay dividends, focused on financial discipline and the improvement of structure financial structure and paying more dividends to the shareholders. Thank you very much, and we are open to any further information you may wish to ask for. The teleconference is closed. Have a nice