Hello, everyone. Welcome to our virtual Petrobras Day 2022. Today, we'll have the opportunity to watch presentations and to participate in discussions with our senior management about our new strategic plan for 2023 to 2027. We'd like to inform you that all participants will follow the transmission by internet as listeners. After an introduction and presentation, a Q&A session will begin. You can send us questions by email, petroinvest@petrobras.com.br. Today, we have with us Claudio Mastella, Chief Trading and Logistics Officer. Fernando Borges, Chief Exploration and Production Officer. João Henrique Rittershausen, Chief Production Development Officer. Rafael Chaves, Chief Institutional Relations and Sustainability Officer. Rodrigo Araujo, Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer. Rodrigo Costa, Chief Refining and Natural Gas Officer, and Salvador Dahan, Chief Governance and Compliance Officer. The presentation is available on our investor relations website, we'll start by listening Rodrigo Araujo. Please, Rodrigo, go ahead.
Thank you. Thank you, Carla. Thanks, everyone, for being with us this morning or afternoon. We can go to the next slide. In terms of the overall setting of the business plan of the 2023-2027 business plan, I think the main word to summarize our business plan is continuity. We continue to be focused on the assets where we have most competitive advantages. We continue to be focused on delivering what we've promised, and we've been able to successfully deliver everything that we promised in the 2026 business plan, and even more over the course of the year.
We continue to be focused on resilient projects, on investing responsibly, and on creating and delivering relevant value to our shareholders and to the Brazilian society as well. The main pillars of the new business plan is preserving the solid financial ability of the company. The business plan is resilient, not only to the base case scenario, but also to the stress test scenario. We continue to be focused on being a low cost, low carbon company, delivering what we call Double Resilience, meaning that we produce low cost oil with low level of emissions, environmentally competitive assets in our portfolio as well. We're quite focused on delivering results via those assets. We're also a relevant player in the current challenging energy security scenario.
We're able to deliver a lot of value and be able to deliver the projects that we've committed to over the course of time. Of course, the latest plan continues to be focused on value creation and delivering the value that we create. Investments are mostly focused on deep and ultra-deepwater assets and also on the competitive refining assets that we have, especially the assets on the southeast of Brazil that are closely connected to the Brazilian pre-salt. We're investing to modernize and increase the quality and reduce the carbon footprint of our refineries and other downstream assets. We've also taken a step forward with respect to our path to decarbonization and to profitable diversification in the business plan.
As we've been talking over the last year, we've been studying several different opportunities to analyze what the capabilities we have for the future and what would be the best fit in terms of potential future businesses for the company. We're gonna talk about this later on. We've made relevant steps on defining what are the potential future business where we see the company having competitive advantages and being able to actually deliver value. At the same time, we've increased the CapEx allocated to energy transition to basically 60% from $2.8 billion-$4.4 billion, a relevant increase already representing 60% of total CapEx.
This plan is an important step towards continuing the value creation strategy that we've been taking over time. Next, please. In terms of our top metrics, we haven't changed any of the relevant metrics. Basically, we continue to be focused on executing what we've promised with relevant targets in terms of lower emissions. We continue to have aggressive safety metrics as well, and targets. As you guys know, safety is a fundamental value for us, and we're continually concerned about reducing recordable injuries and reducing fatalities. We have an ambition of zero fatalities, and safety is always a priority in our operations. We only create value when we're operating safely. We also have relevant targets in terms of reducing spilled volume.
Also the main target in terms of value of the plan continues to be the economic value added. We continue to have the structure to analyze the value created by the portfolio and set targets with respect to creating more value. Of course, the value creation metric is supported by an appropriate capital structure, so we have limits in terms of the optimal capital structure for the company. We're gonna talk about that. It's value creation, respecting financial ability and respecting the company's optimal capital structure.
Next, please. In terms of our ESG positioning, it's important to highlight that we're taking relevant steps towards integrating the ESG strategy, not only with respect to reducing our carbon footprint and protecting the environment, but also from the social perspective, caring for people and from the governance perspective, also acting with more integrity and transparency. The main goal of the plan is to deliver sustainable results for society that is in transition by acting with social and environmental responsibility and the highest degrees of safety, integrity and transparency. Next, please. When we disclose this new business plan, it's important to remember that this is of course, it's only one flash of the whole story with, we've been successfully delivering an important turnaround story over the last seven years or so.
A lot of the relevant results and a lot of the strong ambitions that we have with the business plan come from the financial restructuring work that we've done over the last couple of years, and the governance restructuring work as well. We've been able to achieve our optimal capital structure with 15 months in advance. More than half of our debt is due after 2027, so we have a very solid capital structure, very comfortable liquidity situation as well. We've paid more than $100 billion of debt over the last seven years. Of course, we've reduced the company's interest expenses by more than 60%, almost 70% reduction, from more than $7 billion to less than $2 billion. We're also able to diversify our funding sources.
We've recently issued sustainability-linked loans. We've also issued commercial papers in Brazil and real estate index certificates in Brazil. We've been able to manage the our financial liability in a very value creative way. We're comfortable with the level of debt that we've achieved, that we still have a lot to do in terms of liability management. We continue to be active, not only on making new issues on the capital markets and bilateral transactions, but also prepaying and reorganizing debt so that we can always have the best maturity and the best profile. We've over the course of 2022, we've managed to bring our cash levels close to the optimal level, close to $8 billion.
On this plan, we continue to have the reference cash of $8 billion, the target level of $8 billion. The minimum cash level is $5 billion. We're of course very comfortable with the company's liquidity. It's always important to remember that we have about $9 billion of revolving credit facilities that also provide additional liquidity to the company and allow us to work with lower cash levels and reduce the carry cost of our cash. With everything that we've done in terms of value creation over the course of 2022, a very positive year for the company. We've already declared 13.8 reais per share of dividends and we're committed to returning the important value that we've created.
Over the last five years, we've also paid more than BRL 1 trillion in taxes, so the company has an important role in terms of returning to the Brazilian society the value that it creates. We've been awarded for our transparency. Our financial statements have been elected between the 10 best financial statements in Brazil for the last five years. And in two of them, they were elected the best financial statements in Brazil. So reinforces our commitment with transparency and with communicating properly to our shareholders and to the overall stakeholders. And alongside with delivering projects on time and making sure that we are able to start up production on time and with relevant quality.
We've been working together with the supply chain so that we can make our supply chain be able to deliver what we need on the proper timing. We've also provided more than BRL 20 billion , almost $4 billion in additional credit to the supply chain. We've created programs that allow them to access lower cost credit and therefore provide the services and support that we need to deliver the business plan. Next, please. The plan is focused on maintaining the company's financial strength and maintaining the company's sustainability over time, creating and delivering a lot of value. Of course, one of the main pillars of the plan is maintaining competitive prices aligned to the international markets.
As I've mentioned, we've kept the reference cash level of $8 billion and the minimum cash of $5 billion. We forecast dividends according to the current dividend policy and made minor adjustments to the company's gross debt reference range. We've reduced a little bit the range for the optimal capital structure. The prior range was between $55 billion-$65 billion. We've reduced the lower end of the range, but we expect to maintain a gross debt around $55 billion over the course of the plan. Next, please. In terms of the assumptions that we've used for the plan, of course, we've updated the expected Brent prices for prices that are closer to the short-term scenario that we're seeing.
Just to, as a reminder, we expected $72 per barrel as the average price for 2022 and what we're actually seeing is, more than $100 per barrel. We've maintained the company's long-term view of $55 per barrel in the base case scenario and $35 on the stress test scenario. We've updated the convergence trajectory to achieve those levels to be closer to the current market prices. Of course, our assumptions, we're always focused on making sure that they're well-aligned with the best international forecasts and we have a lot of sanity checks in terms of the quality of the assumptions as well. Next, please.
From an overall perspective, it's important to highlight that more than half of the value that the company creates returns to the Brazilian societies, for the more than half of our cash generation goes back to the Brazilian society, either via taxes or dividends to the controlling shareholder. We expect to return between $215 billion and $235 billion over the course of the plan. Out of the almost $200 billion of cash that we expect to generate over the course of the plan, we have relevant investments and also expect important dividends, assuming of course, the company's current dividend policy.
As I mentioned before, in terms of leverage, we don't expect relevant changes in terms of the level of our current debt. We do expect to be active on managing liability over time. Next, please. Finally, an important message is of course, the important CapEx increase that comes with the recent business plan. More important than the CapEx increase is the fact that it's a very responsible CapEx. The plan is self-financeable. It's resilient to our stress test scenario. Even in the stress test scenario, we expect to be able to pay dividends above the minimum of the $4 billion of our dividend policy. The plan is sustainable even in the stress case.
We have out of the $78 billion of CapEx over time, we 83% of that CapEx is allocated to the upstream segment. We also have 10% of the CapEx allocated to the refining businesses. A lot of additional work in terms of improving quality and reducing carbon footprint. We also have around 2% for gas and power, and 2% for trading and logistics as well, and 3% to corporate activities. Basically digital transformation and higher capabilities in terms of our technological framework. It's important to highlight the relevant increase in the CapEx for low carbon initiatives, coming from $2.8 billion-$4.4 billion, about 6% of the CapEx so allocated to low carbon initiatives in the business plan.
When we look at the level of CapEx commitments over the course of the plan, we've done an important work in terms of ensuring that the projects will be delivered on time. If you look at what we've already committed for the next three years, we're basically talking about 95% of the 2023 CapEx, 90% of the 2024, and 80% of the 2025 CapEx already committed and procured. Basically, we've taken important steps toward ensuring that we're able to deliver projects on time. As you guys know, it's about 90%. A little bit more than 90% of the NPV of the projects come from the proper investment decisions and being able to deliver the projects on time.
We're quite focused on delivering all the projects on time. Overall, a very solid business plan, continuing the trajectory of financial and governance recovery of the company that we've taken over the last couple of years. I'll pass the floor back to you, Carla, so that we can jump into the Q&A session. Thank you for being with us this morning.
Thank you, Rodrigo. We can move to our Q&A session. The first question that we received comes from Frank McGann with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and it's for João Henrique. João Henrique, how have inflation pressures affected the increase in CapEx? Specifically in upstream, oil service inflation has been significantly increasing globally. How has this affected the plan and expected returns on projects? What oil service sub-sectors have been showing the biggest increase in prices? How has this affected the plan and expected return on projects? Does the tighter oil service markets affect how you think about timing of new bids for equipment needs for boosts for 2026- 2027?
Good afternoon, all. Thanks for the question, Frank. All the projections that you have about inflation are reflected on our project checks. We think that this kind of movement is normal for the market. The companies that supply to us, they are like our company. They need to make money, and how the market improves, they need to get their returns also. It's a good thing because when this movement happens, it happens together with the oil price increase. It's a win-win situation for the market.
The oil companies increase the profits and the share of these profits goes to the supplier market that must be healthy in order to have a sustainable market. Regarding the return of the projects, we maintain the breakeven of $35 for approval of all the projects. We understand that this make our project resilient, and this give the quality for the design that we need. This we, I'd like to reinforce the $35 per barrel for the approval of the projects make us to have good projects. This avoid us to waste money in equipments and in designs that does not make value for the company.
Petrobras is always monitoring the markets, and we seek productivity gains and improvements in our contracting strategy that will help us to keep the gains with Petrobras, not leave everything to the market. We, about Búzios, we understand that to have a strong strategy to go to the market and we don't think that will have a impact in the bidding for the Búzios field development. When you go to the market again to buy a Christmas tree or heads and all the equipment that you need to implement the wells for the projects. Thank you for the question.
Thank you, João Henrique. The second question, also from Frank, is for you. What were the reasons for the postponement of SEAP I from 2026- 2027?
Yes. The main reason was that we're not successful in the bid. We tried innovative contract model, the BOT, that is a mix between the EPC and the lease unit, and the market didn't answer fine, well for this, for this new model that you thought that it could be for the interest of the Petrobras in the market. And the idea is now to return with the conventional lease unit for SEAP I and SEAP II to the market, probably in this month of December already.
Thank you, João Henrique. The next question comes from Bruno Amorim with Goldman Sachs, and it's for Fernando. Fernando, is it possible to share the oil production growth outlook for 2023- 2024, excluding asset sales, and the breakdown of this growth between pre-salt and post-salt? Production guidance points out to a flat production in the period, despite the five new production units in 2023.
Bruno, good morning. The impact of divestment in PIC is approximately 70,000 BOE per day in 2023 and 150,000 BOE per day in the coming years. However, it should be noted that all our projects disclosure are net of these effects, reinforcing the resiliency of our portfolio. Regarding the future production, it is important to reinforce that the new projects have the commission and the ramp-up phases. Considering that the increase in the production is not immediate. Furthermore, it is important to remember that the production of our assets have a natural decline of approximately 10% a year. In this context, the production of new systems must compensate for this decline.
Our investments of $18 billion in Campos Basin renovation in this plan, show we're committed to this object to take the best of our assets and mitigate the decline. Regarding the pre-salt growth, with the new 14 new production system, it will represent 78% of our production growth up to 2027. Thank you.
Thank you, Fernando. The next question comes from Monique Greco with Itaú BBA, and it's for Rodrigo Costa and also João Henrique. The new plan includes an expansion of investments in the refining facilities related to quality improvement and an increase in middle distillates production, which when completed, will add significant production capacity to the park. Could you talk a little bit more about new projects that have been included in this plan, the expected start dates and their respective size?
Hi, Monique. To deliver the growth of low sulfur diesel in this plan, we are now implementing the new hydrotreatment unit on REPLAN, our refinery in São Paulo. This unit will add around 63,000 barrels per day, and we will ramp up this unit in the second semester of 2025. The revamps of REDUC will add around 28,000 barrels per day, and we will deliver in the second semester of next year. The revamp of REVAP, we will add around 41,000 barrels per day and the ramp-up will occurs on the second semester of 2025. Another important project is the hydrocracking unit and hydrotreatment unit in the GasLub Itaboraí, Rio de Janeiro, that we will deliver around 6,000 barrels per day in the low sulfur diesel.
The ramp-up will be in the first semester of 2028. Regarding the new capacity of distillation and conversion, the second train on RNEST, the ramp-up, it's around first quarter of 2028, and we'll add around 130,000 barrels per day. The revamp on the coker unit on REPLAN, that we will add around 10,000 barrels per day, and the ramp-up, it's in the second semester of 2027. The new lubricant unit in GasLub will occurs in the first semester of 2028, the capacity, it's around 12,000 barrels per day. The dedicated facility of sustainable aviation fuel will occurs in the first semester of 2028, and it will add around 15,000 barrels per day. This is the main highlights. João, if you wanna add other comments about this.
Yes. I'd like to address the challenge that we have with the new projects. We have had some time without this amount of projects in the downstream area, and it's very challenging to put all these projects on the way that we need to have a successful project. We are working hard with the design of this project to have a good design of these new units. When we go to the market to have the bid, we are working also in the prequalification of the suppliers and studying the best way to have a win-win contract for the construction of these new units.
We cannot in a huge projects like that, we cannot have contracts that don't deliver to Petrobras what we need on time, on with the quality that we need to have a good performance and good reliability of this project in order to have a good operation and make money with these new projects.
Thank you, Rodrigo. Thank you, João Henrique. The next question from Monique is to Mastella. Mastella, you talk about, the activities to strengthen the company's foreign trade. Considering the uncertainty that still hover over the offer from Russia, what has been, in your view, on global oil products market? Is there a risk that we will, again, fear a more severe global shortage that will also affect us here in Brazil?
Well, thank you. Thank you, Monique, for the question. Well, the strengthening of our foreign trade activities aims basically to obtain a more robust global coverage of the markets, of the global market, for the export of domestic oil and also for the import and export of products that complement our refining reserve. Relative to the risk of a global shortage, as you said, we see the international products market is well supplied these days, and there are no signs of product shortages due to the high levels of refining we see and the reduction on global demand, generated mainly by lockdowns in China as they try to meet Zero-COVID policy.
Of course, we also see high volatility still, and to minimize any impact on our businesses, we are very well-positioned abroad with our expert traders, always looking for the best alternatives to buy and sell when necessary. Thank you.
Thank you, Mastella. The next question, also from Monique, is to you as well. Mastella, can you talk a little more about how AvançaLog can contribute to the development of this potential new business in renewable energy? Are there any of this business, offshore wind or hydrogen, that can benefit from more from the company's infrastructure and logistics efficiency?
Well, thank you again. The AvançaLog program has on one of its fronts, the focus on seeking opportunities on the path of energy transition already. We have already mapped synergy opportunities for our existing logistics infrastructure for biofuels, for renewable biofuels, supporting and leveraging our biorefining program in conjunction with our refining guys. On the other hand, the Brazilian logistics of biofuels already operating intensively, also offers a, in my view, good possibilities for new logistics and commercial partnerships. In the future, other opportunities can still be captured as technologies mature and consolidated. Thank you.
Thank you, Mastella. The next question comes from Regis Cardoso with Credit Suisse. He sent us a message. Congratulations to all Petrobras management team for the excellent job that you have been doing. The business plan that was published yesterday combines sound balance sheet investments and industrial return. Regis' first question is to João Henrique. João Henrique, what drives the reduction of annual CapEx of $18 billion in 2024 and 2025 to $13 billion in 2027? Which are the main risks related to the projection at the end of the business plan horizon, provided that only part of the CapEx is already committed, 40% in 2027 versus 90% in the beginning of the period?
The projects mature at different moments. In addition to having a different contracting strategy, such as the definition between now and the end chartered units that can influence the CapEx level of each year. We don't have a specific driver to define the CapEx of each year. It is a result of the implementing strategy of each project. When we see the difference between the level of the contracts for each period, it's normal to have this difference. We understand that it's a good sign that you have the projects that are closer to us with a higher contracting level than the projects that are far from today. It's normal for the strategy that we are implementing in the projects.
Thank you, João Henrique. The next question from Regis Cardoso is to Rafael Chaves Santos. Rafael Chaves Santos, the presentation mentions four segments as potential portfolio diversifications for Petrobras: offshore wind, hydrogen, carbon capture, and biorefining. Which are the main competitive advantage of Petrobras in each of those segments? What would be the best way for Petrobras to enter in those new ventures? Via R&D, partnerships with other companies that are already positioned in those segments. Is there a way?
Thank you. I will start with hydrogen, say some characteristics that is synergistic for and fits Petrobras. First one is scalable, compatible with the size of the company, and the second one is a breakthrough innovation, very linked with technological innovation. Hydrogen fits in the portfolio of Petrobras because of that. Those reasons are the same for all others. I will add more for the other business opportunities. Offshore wind, we have experience in offshore operations. If you look to carbon capture, we have what we have been done for many, many years is to appraise reservoir and to managing reservoir. We are very good with reservoir. Carbon capture, there is this link. Looking to biorefining, we have also decades of experience on operating refining assets.
As Mastella mentioned before, we find some synergies between logistics and commercial relationships that biorefining business can benefit inside Petrobras. All of the business alternatives, we have a very good synergy and is suitable for Petrobras to invest. In terms of R&D, for sure, we have a big allocation of our resource in CENPES and a tradition from CENPES of innovative actions. For sure, CENPES will be present in all of them. With or without partnership, if you look to biorefine now, it is without partnership. We are opening the market by selling some refining assets, and we are focused our operations with 100% of control. In terms of biorefining, without partnership.
Looking to hydrogen, offshore wind and carbon capture, we don't have decisions in terms of business decisions right now, but I would say that because of the high risk, it makes sense to share the risk returns, the risk rewards with partnerships. That is decisions yet to be made by the normal process inside Petrobras. Very good question. Carla, I'm back to you.
Thank you, Rafael. The next question also from Regis is for João Henrique, it's about the commissioning costs. The commissioning costs seem higher at $1.5 billion per year when compared to the previous business plan, at which they were closer to $1 million per year. Could you share more color on which are the main difference behind those numbers?
Yes. First of all, it is very important to remember that the commissioning is part of our business. We discover the oil, develop the oil, produce the oil, the fields, and then in the end, we need to make the decommissioning. For this new business plan, we have increased the number of platforms that are in this process from 18- 26. We have a big increase the number of lines, subsea lines to be collected and also the number of wells that must be plugged and abandoned. This is why we have increased our CapEx from $1 billion- $1.5 billion per year when you compare the two business plans.
Thank you, João Henrique . The next question comes from Pedro Soares with BTG Pactual, and it's for Salvador. Salvador, the newly elected government has been conveying a message that could lead most to believe that there will be changes in Petrobras' strategic plan. Could you remind us the steps that are necessary for the revision of the plan? Pragmatically speaking, how long should the revision process take in case the goal is to change, as soon as January?
Thanks for the question. Basically, we have to remember the process is not one single activity, but actually it's a number of months of dedication of multiple teams from all the business areas. It's a bottom-up approach, where the technical teams will propose and will submit the proposition according to our process and our governance. Of course, the board is responsible to set some strategic drivers, and according to each board compositions, those drivers can change and can reflect whatever the control ship requires and expects from Petrobras. But ultimately, the process is a construction made based on a bottom-up approach according to our systematic, and is a process of multiple months.
Considering all the projects, all the criteria and assumptions as we have in the plan are supported by a risk analysis, are supported by an economics revision. Basically, they have to be positive in terms of returns, in terms of sustainability, not only the environmental but also the economical sustainability as we already mentioned. In terms of timeline, we have a legal obligation to release an annual plan. Doesn't mean we have to, we are obliged to stay only on one plan per year. Of course, if there is any internal decision to review us in more frequent, is it possible, legally speaking, Is there any condition that will avoid this to happen.
However, as I'm already mentioned, it's a process with several steps to be taken, and it's not possible in toward systematic to say this strategic plan can be reviewed in a very short-term period. The last point I think is important to mention is the approval process. Our governance established that the board is responsible to approve the plan after being already submitted and approved by the executive committee, and prior to that also should be approved by our statutory technical committee. All these three collective committees, they are responsible, and they have fiduciary duties in terms of signing off and validating assumptions and proposed plan. Basically, this is how our governance cover strategic plan construction.
Thank you, Salvador. The next question from Pedro Soares is to João Henrique. João Henrique, on the CapEx plan for the next five years, could you quantify how much of the implied growth stems from higher inflationary pressures, and how much reflects management decision to accelerate some projects?
Thanks for the question, Pedro. In terms of exploration and production CapEx, we have an increase of 12% when you compare to the previous plan. In downstream segment, the increase was around 20%. As seen in the presentation, it's a number resulting from the review of economic assumptions, new opportunities and the portfolio adjustments. Economic assumptions affect our for-portfolio differently. Considering contract signed, where we have, in some case, escalation formulas and the scope that is not yet contracted, that is more suitable to have changes to the market conditions. All these adjustments were incorporated into the strategic plan. It should be noted that we are always looking for productivity gains, like you can see in the well construction, for example. Improvements in our procurement strategy, which helps to mitigate these impacts.
The idea is mainly to have good strategy and choose the best opportunities to go to the market to make the contracts. Thank you for the question, Pedro.
Thank you, João Henrique. The next question from Pedro is to Rafael. Rafael, I'd like to delve deeper into energy transition. It's very clear that the CapEx to be disbursed in the projects to aim to reduce Petrobras carbon footprint is growing. Its size is relatively small, and I believe that mostly driven by the current strategy to focus on high return projects. If you could compare the level of returns that you are seeing between projects that involve the energy transitions and what's being delivered today by the core business, that would be very helpful.
It is Pedro Soares. Yes, Carla. Thank you, Pedro Soares for the question. As you said, you think that it's clear that the CapEx is growing, but at the same time, the CapEx is not big enough, according to your question. I can translate this comment on you would like to see the CapEx growing faster than you are seeing. I have two comments. First of all, I think the total CapEx of Petrobras at about $80 billion announced is very appropriate to be executed in a responsible way by a centralized governance model, by a team that is very committed to deliver all the promise that we are making during the strategic plan. Total CapEx of the Petrobras, it is very suitable and appropriate.
Second, the green CapEx tend to increase over time as we have more maturity. I will give you two examples. If you look to CapEx in forest, it must be executed engaging local communities to be suitable. It takes time to scale. We don't want to announce a very big CapEx with very huge obstacles to execute. The other example is the green CapEx in biofuels, is a dedicated plan in our refining assets. It's tend to increase over time as well. We start with the first plant, and we learn, and then we can scale and do more. This is some feelings that I have that we are in the right directions. We should increase the CapEx plan by plan.
As long as we learn with the process and as long as we got maturity. In terms of the carbon capture, offshore wind, hydrogen, we don't have the projects with a reasonable expectations for risk reward that we can be comfortable to announce the CapEx. We are keeping studying, and as long as we see a good risk reward return with sustainability and sustainability in terms of climate and also sustainability in terms of economical results. If you have a very good project in terms of climate issues, but without economic sustainability, the result will be a failure.
That's the reason why we are growing the CapEx, in a not very fast way, but you should expect, continuous growth in this type of CapEx as long as we incorporate the lessons learned, and we can scale our projects. Thank you for your question. I'm giving the floor back to you, Carla.
Thank you, Rafael. The next question comes from Gabriel Barra with Citi, it's for Fernando. Fernando, it was displayed a relevant increase in exploratory CapEx, mainly related to the equatorial margin. Could you please share what's the company's perspective for this new area in relation to CapEx, production, and timeline?
Gabriel, the assets on the equatorial margin are in the exploratory phase, and show excellent potential, as demonstrated by the success of projects carried out in Suriname and Guyana. We cannot anticipate investments or production of the development phase prior to the execution of our exploratory campaign. That is a big one. We have a good expectations with 16 exploratory wells to be drilled in 17 blocks in equatorial margin. The first of them is scheduled to start in this December in the deep waters of Amapá, if the environmental permit is obtained as soon as possible. New wells depend on the environmental license process that is in course. Thank you for your question.
Thank you, Fernando. The next question comes from Conrado Wagner with Safra, and it's for João Henrique. João Henrique, considering the current contracts for production platforms, especially those whose deliveries are further in time, are there any breakup fees? How long do you believe it would take to go through all the process for the local production of an FPSO up to its delivery?
Thank you. Thanks for the question, Conrado. Our contracts, we don't have breakup fees. If there is some decision to change the local contract, it would be need to have Negotiation with the suppliers that will deliver the units to Petrobras. It's very hard to say the schedule for local production of an FPSO. You have faced this in the past, and we know the results of this. Today, when we go to the market to hire an FPSO, you have local content in this FPSO. One of the difficult parts for the difficult task for the guy that will quote an FPSO to Brazil, is how to deliver the local content that is requested today in the for the Brazilian market.
We can see that the suppliers that have experience and capacity are with the good backlogs, like when you consider Keppel FELS, EBR, or Zhuhai, they are already have contracts signed, and they are with the good performance in delivering the models that they are building to the platforms that are under construction today. I think that it's not easy to predict the delivery time of an FPSO that is completely built in Brazil. Thank you for the question and the opportunity to clarify this point.
Thank you, João Henrique. The next question from Conrado is to Rodrigo Costa. Rodrigo, regarding our refining facilities, is there any refinery such as RNEST that would allow for a significant increase in capacity with the building of an additional refining train, for example?
Conrado, we are constantly evaluating opportunities for expansion of processing capacity. To do this, we consider in it planning the market conditions, especially the risks of energy transition, the CapEx exposure, access to feedstocks, restrictions on logistics, among other factors. At the moment, at this current revision planning, RNEST was identified as an opportunity for significant expansion with the completion of the second train, with positive economics, mainly due to the production profile focused on low sulfur diesel, and the fact that we can use the investments that have already been made. In each planning cycle, we always remain analyzing and looking for opportunities for expansion, but we test with these assumptions and parameters.
Thank you, Rodrigo. The next question comes from Vicente Falanga with Bradesco BBI, and it's for João Henrique. João Henrique, what caused the delay in SEAP I? Why were Búzios 6 and 7 switched in 2024 and 2025?
Yes. Thank you, Vicente. In SEAP I, we have a bid that we're not successful in hiring the unit. We had a BOT model contract that is a mix between APC and lease the unit, and we're not successful. We are returned to the market to lease the unit. About Búzios 6 and 7, it's only a matter of nomenclature of the projects. The same projects. They were switched, the names of the projects. The startup dates are maintained. There is no change in the dates of the projects.
Thank you, João Henrique. The next question, also from Vicente, is to Rafael. Rafael, in terms of hydrogen, does Petrobras plan to potentially become a producer of green/blue hydrogen or invest to become an offtaker of those molecules?
No. As offtaker, no. We can produce the blue hydrogen in case we decide for gray hydrogen and then use the carbon capture as a technological solution to make it cleaner, to capture the CO2 equivalent generated as a result from gray hydrogen. You can use carbon capture and make the hydrogen the blue one. We may produce green hydrogen if we use the offshore eolic combined with hydrogen to generate a hydrogen that is produced 100% with renewable source. There are both possibilities, the green and the blue hydrogen. Also we can enter in this type of business, eolic offshore, and either carbon capture with no relations with hydrogen. That's another possibility. That's it. Carla, I'm delivering to you back.
Thank you, Rafael. The next question comes from Rodolfo Angeli with J.P. Morgan, and it's for Fernando Borges. Fernando, the plan sees higher lifting costs from $5- $5.5 and higher total production costs, from $29- $33. What's driving higher costs?
Rodolfo, these fluctuations are in the current global geopolitical context that also affects our industry. We see that increase as a natural oscillation that does not affect our strong portfolio resilience. For the higher total production costs, it reflects the higher oil price forecast in this plan and its effect on the government take. Thank you.
Thank you, Fernando. The next question from Rodolfo is to João Henrique. João Henrique, your plan calls for 18 new FPSOs in the next five years. Can you discuss the challenges around such an ambitious target? How is the market for new FPSOs, and what can be done to mitigate risks?
Thank you for the question. Rodolfo, we cannot say that it's a easy challenge. 18 FPSOs is half of the total number of FPSOs that will be built in the world in the next five years. We have a strong execution plan for these units. We have a mix between leased units and the EPC units. We made a pre-qualification process where we could select the best EPC companies in the world to run these challenges. The owned units are the biggest units that we have ever built. We will have our own design with all the experience that you have learned in all the pre-salt projects. We are very confident that we will be successful in this journey.
It's a very challenging construction, but we are very confident with the results that we are planning for the near future in these units. Thank you.
Thank you, João Henrique. The next question comes from Luiz Carvalho with UBS and for Rodrigo Araujo and Salvador. Can you please provide more details on the governance process for new investments? Is there a timeline for new projects to be discussed yearly, quarterly, or other? What steps are needed for approval? Is there a target return? What are the metrics that the company evaluates when considering new investments? Still in governance, what is needed to change the steps for this process?
Thank you, Carla. I'll start with the first part, and then I'll pass the floor to Salvador. With respect to the overall governance of the new CapEx projects, Luiz, basically the whole process starts with the existing business plan, where all the company's assumptions in terms of prices, margins, et cetera, are recorded, also operational volumes, et cetera. It all starts with the business plan. That is the main reference. Alongside with the business assumptions that come from the business plan, we also have all the CapEx budget that is approved by the board of directors is also within the business plan.
Basically, all the projects that are within the plan are approved to be carried out. It doesn't mean that they're all after the FID or all after the decisions have been made, but they're all authorized by the board, and they still have to go through the entire governance. Individually, every project has to go through a specific approval process. We have a five-gate process to approve new CapEx. Basically, the third gate is the regular FID. Basically, the main criteria is of course, having positive NPV at the stress test scenario. We're talking about for crude, $35 per barrel in the long run.
For refining margins, for example, diesel and gasoline crack spreads, $11 and $5 per barrel in the long run. Basically, having positive NPV in the stress case scenario is the main criteria for project approval. In terms of the process that has to be taken to approve the individual CapEx projects, basically, every project that's larger than $200 million has to go through the investment committee. That is a committee composed by executive managers that are the level right below the C-suite. They have to be approved by the C-suite executive officers board, and then they go to the board of directors to be approved.
They still need to be approved by those three different layers, all of them with economic analysis, risk analysis, environmental impact analysis, engineering project analysis, et cetera. This is all that has to be done for each specific project. I'll pass the floor to Salvador to talk a little bit about potential changes and then how it could play out. Thank you.
Just adding on Rodrigo's last comment, adding on those three different layers, the personal and criminal liability, based on the fiduciary duties all of us have, as part of our responsibility. In terms of answering the question very similar to what I mentioned before, it's a bottom-up approach. We have to follow all the criteria and assumptions Rodrigo already mentioned. Ultimately, it's a board of directors decision to approve the plan, but also to change or update the existing rules and existing procedures. Basically, we already discussed that the governance of the company rules and procedures are always evolving.
We are always trying to bring and add additional best practices that we may find in other companies, best practices from external institutions, and of course, embedding whatever laws, regulatory requirement, internal or external auditors may bring to us in terms of lessons learned. On top of that, of course, the controller can bring their own requests and requirement through the board of directors to the controller representatives, and therefore, define new strategies and new ways to conduct the long-term vision for the company.
Thank you, Rodrigo. Thank you, Salvador. The next question from Luiz is to Rafael. Rafael, is there a guided focus for upcoming investments in renewables? What Petrobras could consider: offshore wind, hydrogen, biofuels. On the other hand, what is off-scope for Petrobras? What the company would currently not consider: mining, biomass.
Thank you, Luiz. As I said in the previous questions from Pedro Soares, we are already investing in the biofuels, in the biorefining, because we have, it is scalable. We have ability to break through innovation, very linked with technological innovation use stamps. We have experience in refining assets, we have experience in logistics and commercial in commercializing the liquid fuels inside Brazil. It's very suitable for us. It's already a decision made, and we are going to start with the first plant in a refining asset in São Paulo to produce both jet fuel and the diesel for trucks with renewable content. That's a business decision made, and it's the first plant that we need to learn and to scale in next plants after we get maturity of this type of investment.
On the other hand, we have hydrogen, offshore wind and carbon capture as possibilities as businesses. We don't have a CapEx dedicated to that, but we are going to study more these alternatives. We rule out other possibilities as nuclear or as the subsea mining. That's the type of business that we said in the last plan that we should appraise, and we decide to focus on the three of them, with hydrogen in the center. It can be hydrogen combined with carbon capture, which will generate blue hydrogen. It can be hydrogen combined with eolic offshore, which could generate green hydrogen. It can be eolic offshore or carbon capture without hydrogen associated. That's our decisions, and let's see how we evolve on the upcoming months. Carla, I'm back to you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Rafael. The next question comes from Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley. It's for Salvador. Salvador, can you walk us through the timeline that a potential new board of directors and management team could be appointed, and then the timeline for a new team to effectively change the business and investment plan? What would be the implications if a new management team ignored the plan and allocate capital according to its assumptions? Would this trigger any personal or corporate liability? In other words, how enforceable is the CapEx plan unveiled by the company yesterday?
Okay, there are some predictions that I'm not sure I'll be able to answer. In terms of appointing new board members, yes, as you already know, we have some basic timelines to follow according to our internal procedures and according to some external requirements by CVM and others. Basically, we are talking about around 40-60 days, depending on the complexity, depending on the number of people involved. After we, the company receive the indication from the controller, with names and indications to appoint new board members, to call for our general assembly meeting and therefore make the election process. So this is very known, well-established, very transparent process. We already followed several number of times.
We had last year to update our rules to include a new federal decree that requires the eligibility committee to run the eligibility criteria check into the candidates before calling the general assembly meeting, which brings an additional two weeks to add into this process, as happened last general assembly meeting election. Other than that, I think in terms of bringing new strategy assumptions, new visions to the long-term company future, I would say they could be addressed, and they could be embedded into the plan if necessary, according then following all the processes Rodrigo and I already explained in terms of following the company systematic approach.
More than that, I think depends on how those new visions and new assumptions will be incorporated in order to say, well, this is according to what company has today, or this is a big change. If they are well-funded, if they are well organized in terms of making the cases, building the business opportunities in terms of following the same or the economical viability and all other elements that are relevant for not only Petrobras but for any company, of course, they will be following the approval process up to the board of directors.
Along the lines, I would say if there's something that is not concrete enough in terms of the economical viability risk, and all other criteria, therefore you may fall into those potential liability risks that you already mentioned. Basically, the process is as I already explained, and according to the past experience in terms of calling a general assembly meeting, the timeline as I already explained.
Thanks, Salvador. We have one last question from Christian Audi with Santander. He also sends us a message: I would like to congratulate you on a once again solid strategic plan, both from an operation and financial point of view, complemented by a continually strong corporate governance. Christian's question is to Fernando. Fernando, the forward breakeven remains at $20 per barrel, as in the previous business plan.
Christian, definitely yes. Breakeven is nearly $20 per barrel, given the strong resilience of our portfolio. Thank you for your question.
Thank you, Fernando. At this time, the Q&A session is over. If you have any further question, you can send it to our investor relations team. Rodrigo will now make his final remarks. Please, Rodrigo.
Thank you. Thanks everyone for being with us this morning, this afternoon. We're very glad to deliver a very solid business plan, focused on maintaining the company's strong financial position and creating and delivering a lot of value. Thank you for being with us, and please feel free to send any further questions to our IR team, we'll be ready to transfer any further questions. Thank you and have a great day.