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Earnings Call: Q4 2024

Mar 14, 2025

José Gustavo
Investor Relations Manager, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Good day, everyone. Welcome to PRIO's fourth quarter 2024 video conference call. I am José Gustavo, IR Manager, and I'll be your host in this event. For those who want to follow us in English, we have simultaneous interpreting through the globe icon on the bottom of your Zoom screen. The translation presentation is available on our Investor Relations website. The presentation and comments on the results will be presented by our CEO, Roberto Monteiro, our CFO, Milton Rangel, and our COO, Francisco Francilmar.

After the presentation, they'll be available during the Q&A. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. To ask written questions, you can use the Q&A button, or you can use the Zoom Raise Hand feature to ask live questions. This event is being recorded and will be available on our IR website. This presentation contains information based on future estimates and forecasts based on assumptions adopted by the company, which can therefore change and should not be considered facts or be used as the basis for financial projections beyond the plans expressed by the company. I'll turn the floor to Roberto Monteiro, our CEO.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Good afternoon and welcome to PRIO's fourth quarter 2024 earnings results call. In this earnings call, we are going to focus a little on the quarter, the fourth quarter of 2024, and also on the full year results. It was a challenging year. 2024 was a year of a lot of adjustment at PRIO, but it was also a year of some significant achievements. We'll go through them, and we're going to list them one by one. I'll start by talking about production, which was perhaps our biggest challenge. Because as regards production specifically, we had a lot of challenges related to the operating efficiency of Albacora Leste Field throughout the year.

Also, still talking about production, we had a significant delay with regard to the environmental licensing of a very important project for the company, which is the Wahoo project. This is a project that will add 40,000 barrels of oil to the company, so close to a 40% increase in organic growth, a project that is already ready to be implemented, but which unfortunately we were unable to start implementing last year due to the environmental licensing. This was the main focus of PRIO's work throughout the year, and therefore it was quite challenging. In addition to this Wahoo issue, which was put on hold, so to speak, by Ibama, we also had some TBMT wells, which we did not receive authorization to work on. They failed over the course of last year. We didn't receive authorization to do the repair work.

It also came under this same story of Ibama, environmental licensing, and so on. Things are getting better. We got the license to start drilling in the Wahoo Field now in February, so things are turning around. Unfortunately, the year of 2024 fell short of our expectations, largely because of these issues. We've had some positive achievements this year. We've had some very interesting things. The first was Peregrino Field, of which we acquired a 40% stake in December. We acquired the stake that belonged to a Chinese company called Sinochem. They carried out a sales process. We managed to buy 40% of this field, and today we are partners in the Peregrino Field, which produces close to 100,000 barrels daily and is operated by Equinor.

We have 40% of that. In December, we added 40,000 barrels of oil to our production. We also had a favorable decision for PRIO regarding the Wahoo project. We had a little more than a 60% working interest in that field, and there was an arbitration going on between a partner and PRIO. This arbitration was exactly over a percentage of 30% or so of the field, and we had a decision that was favorable for PRIO. When this project starts production, the entire reserve, the entire production will be consolidated for PRIO. This was an interesting decision, an interesting verdict. In addition, we repurchased 160 million shares over the course of the year. We published our annual sustainability report. We ran the third edition of [RASEN Offshore], a program to recruit technicians for our offshore platforms.

The financial result itself, we posted revenues of $2 billion. We had an EBITDA of $1.6 billion and a net income of $1.7 billion. As regards to net income, there was an extraordinary gain of net income, which was the transfer of our operations to Domo. When we made this transfer to Domo, we activated tax credits that were lying dormant. With that, we had a gain of almost $1 billion just from this activation of tax credits. One last point that was also very interesting during the year is that the two deals, the Peregrino deal plus the Wahoo project, these two deals meant that we managed, even in this more difficult year, to increase our reserves by almost 30%. We increased the reserves by 28%, more or less, and Francilmar will explain a little later about this.

I'm going to move on to the next slide to show you some other important indicators throughout the year. The first one, here's the lifting cost. If we look at 2024, it was a worse year than 2023 in terms of the lifting cost. If we look at the fourth quarter, it was the worst quarter of the year. To talk a little bit about the lifting cost over the course of the year, there are two things that played a role. We had a natural decline in production, and we were not able to have any project to offset that. The lifting cost is a function of our operating cost, which remains practically fixed, divided by production. The higher the production, the lower the lifting cost, since we were not able to put any new project in place last year.

We also had difficulty even putting some existing wells back into production due to Ibama's licensing processes and so on. Our production base decreased with the same cost, and this led our lifting cost to increase due to this production base, which is a little smaller, and also considering that our costs are fairly fixed. When we look at the last quarter, the Peregrino Field specifically began to be consolidated in December. Peregrino Field today operates at a lifting cost well above our average. Today, I would say that PRIO's average is below $10 for sure. I would say $9, between $8 and $9, but Peregrino Field operates at numbers closer to $17, $18 per barrel. When Peregrino is consolidated in our PRIO cost base, it brings the company as a whole to a lifting cost close to $11, $12 a barrel.

We've seen the fourth quarter of 2024, $11.1 per barrel. That's the explanation for the lifting cost. Of course, now that the Wahoo project is coming on stream this year, we've already started the drilling campaign, and we think there is a high probability that we'll achieve first oil still this year, 2025. This lifting cost will fall because then we'll be producing much more oil with the same cost base. We've already talked about production. Cash, even after the deal with Sinochem, we still have a very solid cash position, almost $650 million of cash, $646 million of cash. That's after the payment of the 40% stake of Peregrino. Our indebtedness has risen from almost $1 billion to $2.5 billion. L et's put it this way, the increase in this leverage is exactly the purchase of the field.

Today we are at 1.2 x net debt over EBITDA ratio. Of course, this field has already been integrated, bringing EBITDA as well, adding EBITDA to the company. Even so, our indicator has gone to 1.2 x. This is totally controlled, totally healthy, nothing more to say here. This is a natural process. Always after an M&A deal, we have an increase in our net debt, and then it gradually reduces. When we look at the first quarter of 2023, we acquired Albuquerque, and it was the same. We reached 1.1 x, and by the end of 2024, we were down to 0.5x. Now we've acquired Peregrino, the ratio went up to 1.2 x, and this business will start to deleverage. It's the normal cycle, the natural cycle that happens with the purchase of all assets. Very well. I'll stop here. I'll hand over to Francilmar. He's going to talk a little about our operations. Milton will talk about the financials, and I'll come back at the end to talk about sustainability and the next steps. Thank you very much, Francilmar.

Francisco Francilmar
COO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Hello everyone. Thank you, Roberto. We're going to continue here on slide number five in the asset performance section with an update of the quarter ending 2024. It was a quarter in which we saw the natural decline of the fields. We hadn't yet managed to get back into the pace of drilling, executing the company's development and production. We saw production decline at all the fields and some operating efficiency problems that ended up having a slight impact on production in most of the assets. We see Peregrino Field coming on stream. We'll give you more detail on that.

Let's move on to talk about the lifting cost here on slide number six. We'll go into a little more color and detail. This is a very traditional slide. It's a mantra we have at the company. We focus every day on improving the lifting cost. After a long time in which we posted falling lifting costs, managing to control the lifting cost very well, now we're seeing more of an upward pressure. This is very much due to the limitation we had in executing our development plan of not being able to drill. We haven't drilled any new well since September 2023. We've been dealing with the decline of the fields, some more pronounced than others, and some inflation costs, but that is much more controlled. However, what really weighs here is the decline of the field, a lower production.

When one considers the relationship between production and cost, we have a higher lifting cost. There is also a big influence here of Peregrino Field, which was added at the end of the year. Big influence, but limited to the period of time it was considered due to the specific characteristics of the field, although it is very similar to Polvo and TBMT fields in terms of water depth and production system. Due to the characteristics of the oil, which is heavier with a lower API, it has a slightly higher production cost, which ends up pulling our lifting cost up a little. Even so, it is a focus of ours, and there is a lot of space, a lot of room for us to work in the coming months, the next few quarters ahead, so that we can get this lifting cost back down.

Moving on to slide seven, at Frade Field, this was a quarter of recovery. We still have some production issues here and there in the case of ODP3. We have requests to resume workovers in these wells and try to recover them. While the environmental approval and licensing process is ongoing, we have been facing the decline of the field, a decline in production. It is a natural characteristic of the reservoir, which was a little more pronounced than we expected. These are natural characteristics, t hey happen. From the point of view of operating efficiency, we saw recovery in Q4, quarter- on- quarter, with efficiency returning to a level that we work to have in this asset, in Frade, reaching almost 100%. This is good. After the blow we took in the third quarter with that integrity problem, the field was shut down for a few days. The field did well.

The future plan for the field is to continue investing a lot in maintenance, in improving efficiency of the field, investing in integrity, safety to prepare for developing Wahoo, and to continue with a project to work on increasing production at Shruddy. Moving on to the next slide, slide number eight, we are going to give you an update on TBMT and Polvo fields, the south cluster. Our efficiency was greatly affected by the production stoppage of TBMT wells, which are high production wells. We had electric submersible pumps, ESPs failing in the middle of the year between the end of the second quarter and beginning of the third quarter, with the pumps failing almost sequentially. TBMT- 8H failed, followed by TBMT- 4H and then TBMT-10H. We were able in August or so to resume the workover.

We received approval towards the end of August. We managed to recover one well, but not the other two, and have production, but with an impact on both production and diesel consumption because we lost the associated gas production. This ends up affecting everything. When we see the 75% at the end of the year, it is the potential production of the whole field, minus these two wells, which are out versus the actual production. The actual impact of the field is this. From the point of view of the production unit, both the platform and the FPSO are performing very well. Costs are under control, with the exception of the increasing diesel price. It is a momentary effect caused only by the failure of these wells. The plan is for us to receive the go-ahead from the agency.

As we got the Wahoo license, Ibama is now working on evaluating this request of ours. We expect to receive a green light very soon to proceed with these workovers and return to production and then give the asset a little break. We can't set a date, but we hope that in the coming months we'll be working on the workovers of these wells. Moving on to slide nine, Albuquerque Leste field. Let me give you a bit more of an update on this field. Q3 and Q4 were the most difficult quarters at the field. We've been working hard to recover the large pieces of equipment that have degraded in recent years, especially in the power generation system, the turbines that generate energy there, as well as the compression system, which suffered a lot. We had already been carrying out major repairs to machinery on land.

We had taken some equipment out to perform a general overhaul in onshore workshops by their manufacturers or companies with proven training and capabilities. While these machines were coming back, the machines that were at the field that had been working for a long time started to fail as they were degrading. That ended up taking a strong bite of Q3 and Q4. Even now we've been grappling with this. We solved the power generation system. We replaced two turbines at the end of the year, at the beginning of the year. In January, we finished that. Today, we have balanced the turbines issue. We have three systems.

There is a good redundancy that manages to give us reliability and resistance and bring us closer to our goal, what we currently seek, which is stability, which will give us the efficiency that we pursue. We also suffered, in addition to the turbines at the end of the year, with a compression system. Compressors stopped, broke, came back, and this is still a work in progress. We haven't managed to resolve it 100%. We're in the final stages. I believe that in the next few months, we'll be able to put a structure in place with a minimum of support to resolve it definitely. We're waiting a few more months because the other compressor is undergoing a retrofit. Of the new ones that we bought, two compressors won't arrive until year-end.

The goal here is to raise efficiency to a better level with the existing compression system and turbines. The company has made a huge effort, putting a lot of focus, people, and energy into recovering this asset. We're going to keep it at that. I believe that 2025 is the turning point for Albacora Leste field. The whole company is well-focused and dedicated to this. Moving on to slide 10, let's talk a little about the company's youngest asset, Peregrino. We acquired a 40% working interest of Peregrino field at the end of last year. This asset is not operated by PRIO, but it is here. It's not operated by us, but it has a lot of synergies, a lot of similarities with assets we already have.

We started a very strong process of integration and information sharing and information exchange, seeking improvement for both sides. This is indeed a win-win game. We entered the partnership to add to the operator's efforts. It's been a good start. We have high expectations of being able to capture a lot of synergies, to help a lot, to learn a lot. That's how we are going to continue. There's still a year of a major drilling campaign on platform C into the newest region of development of the field. There's a lot of maintenance work being done to improve the integrity of the assets, both the FPSO and one platform. This is work already underway. We are coming in to learn and help the asset a lot. That's it. There's a lot coming up for Peregrino Field.

Moving on, slide 11 is an update on Wahoo field. I think this is the big update we have this quarter. Together with Peregrino, we have an important step, a very important milestone for the company. Finally, at the end of February, we received the drilling license. Finally, we are making progress here, and we'll be updating this slide. We actually started drilling this week. On March 12, we have the spud date, which is the actual start of drilling. We will follow this drilling schedule. We will drill four producer wells and two injector wells. These producer wells are pre-sold wells with a long time frame. We will see how the schedule turns out, but it is something between 70 and 90 days. We are aiming for 80 days for the completion of each well. It will take us a whole year, plus a bit to do all this.

In parallel to this, we are working very hard to adapt FPSO Frade to receive the oil coming in. The entire control system, the entire production and measurement and control systems are being done now, and we will be 100% ready in the next few months. The next steps include the environmental licensing process for the installation system, the entire subsea system, the equipment flow. They will be installed as planned. All the resources are in place, just waiting for the installation license to be issued. All the materials are practically ready. We're just holding back to align it with the timetable. There are no bottlenecks. As for the boats, we have them both for the flexible lines, and they are already available, even though we are using them for other things.

In terms of the rigid pipeline lines, we are in a good position to organize ourselves. Today, we are able to activate the rigid pipeline vessels from different schedule windows. While we wait for the license, we will certainly then get a firm date. Today, I will say that the entire effort of the company is geared towards being able to deliver that this year so that we can deliver this dream oil, Wahoo's first oil. Here on slide 12, I am going to give you an update on the reserve certification. We released the update on our reserve certification. I'm just going to give you a very quick update. In 2024, we used up production. Production was slightly lower than what we had projected for the year. You know, once you put together Albacora Leste and TBMT.

For Frade, despite the lower production, there was a lower production. There was a natural decline in the field, lower than anticipated. That's why there was a drop of eight, I mean, in fact, eight million barrels less. Therefore, we lost four million barrels in Frade. On the other hand, we already have all the studies that are being carried out in Frade. That is, an infill well is approved or scheduled to be drilled. In other words, a well inside the reservoir that is already known, which adds a little over 12 million barrels. There are several other studies, but at least one of them is already going on, all as a result of the work carried out in the development phases of Frade. This will bring new regions to fruition in what has already been approved. I mean, we are seeing one P alone.

Before we had a vision of one P and one C, a C for Frade because that was Wahoo. We are now back to the traditional way of looking at it. The one Cs that are mapped out are still one Cs, which is Maracanã. One C is contingent. Contingent means that we are waiting for some studies, some data for us to prove it and to put it into production. Both ODP6 and Maracanã, we think that everything is mapped out. At Frade, the delta added 8.8. Frade was up a bit. The Wahoo part is basically the result we had in the process with BV. The reserve part has now been added to 100% of Wahoo, representing an increase of 42.9%, almost 43%. On the Polvo and TBMT side, we have a small increase here.

I mean, the part of the well that we had programmed has been maintained of one producing well in the year. There is a small delta here resulting from the cost issue at the end of the lifespan, but it is basically zero. At Albacora Leste, we had a positive effect despite the lower efficiency. I mean, the reservoirs, when we look at the reservoirs, they had a positive performance. The decline was lower than expected. When we look at the overall extension, there was a slight increase here in the field's total reserves. In Peregrino, here we had the where that was the entry point at the end of this whole process. Therefore, this led us to a reserve of 687, almost 688 million barrels. This results from our hard work, but there is a lot more being done. Life goes on like this. Thank you all very much. Now I will hand it over to Milton. All the best.

Milton Rangel
CFO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Thank you, Francisco Francilmar. Good afternoon, everyone. Continuing with slide number 13 of our presentation here, we will talk about PRIO's financial performance. In terms of performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, revenue amounted to $536 million, which refers to the sale of just over 7.1 million barrels in the quarter at a Brent reference price of $75.13 and a total FOB revenue, which we also highlight, of $512 million. This takes into account the FOB equivalent price of almost $72, meaning $71.96. With this, we also see the discount calculated in this fourth quarter, just over $3 per barrel, which is the result of our trading strategy. Also, our cost of goods sold stood at $81 million.

As mentioned in previous slides, this reflects a slightly higher lifting cost due to the entry of the Peregrino Field, which has started to be accounted for at the beginning of December. The closing of this transaction was on December 5. This result already contemplates the results of Peregrino as of December. If we were to exclude the effect of Peregrino, the lifting cost would have been very much in line with the company's last quarter. As Peregrino brings the lifting cost in the order of $17-$18 per barrel, PRIO's consolidated lifting ends up going up a little, as we saw in previous slides. As a result, our EBITDA amounted to just over $300 million in the quarter with a margin of 62%. Adjusted EBITDA, after excluding non-cash and non-recurring events, came to $322 million with a margin of 66%.

It's worth noting that there was a loss of margin compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 from 73% to 66%, mainly attributed to the entry of Peregrino, which is a slightly lower margin. Also, due to a fall in Brent, once we compare the two periods, we see Brent at over $77 a barrel in 2023 in the fourth quarter, compared to a slightly weaker Brent in the fourth quarter of 2024. Another relevant point is, I mean, when we look at the income tax and social contribution line, basically the impact here of deferred tax, we successfully concluded a corporate restructuring in the company. With that, we were able to recognize the tax credits from our subsidiaries, taking into account that we now have combined all the concessions under the company's main CNPJ or corporate tax number.

It's an accounting impact, an impact without a cash effect in the immediate quarter, but nonetheless, it reinforces a relevant value. We can see that a positive $900 million in the income tax line. With that, we come to a net income for the period of $1.74 billion in the quarter and $1.7 billion in the year to date. Total revenue for the year stood at $2.4 billion. FOB revenue was $2.3 billion. EBITDA was $1.675 billion. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $1.662 billion, with an average margin for the year of 73%. Now, moving on to slide 14, let's summarize PRIO's funding situation. Starting with this central slide on the amortization schedule, the larger chart, we see in the lighter green color, first, an almost derisory maturity in 2025.

We don't have any relevant maturities, but in 2026 and 2027, we have an $800 million and $470 million in 2027 of bilateral debts, which we raised mainly throughout 2024 to fund the acquisition of Peregrino. These are bilateral instruments of two- to three-year maturity. That is why they will be due in 2026 and 2027. We will accumulate these $800 million in 2026 with another $600 million from our international bond issued in 2021. It's a five-year bond. Therefore, it will mature in June of 2026. Despite the company's total peace of mind in terms of cash generation and cash position to meet these maturities, it's natural for us to be attentive to the market, that we are attentive to the possibility of doing some kind of liability management to move some of these maturities further into the long- term, as should be our goal.

In terms of duration and the average cost of debt, the duration of the company of our financial liabilities has fallen since the second quarter of 2024. Third and fourth quarters, we raised these bilateral debts for Peregrino's funding. Therefore, by bringing in shorter-term debt, it is just natural that this duration will fall. The average cost of debt was 6.65% per year in dollar terms, which is a very reasonable level and competitive for a company of our size and with the payment terms that we have. Moving on to the next slide, slide 15. Here, we look at the variation of the company's net debt during the quarter. We started the fourth quarter with $789 million of net debt. Our EBITDA stood at $322 million. We see in this big column of $1,729 million, referring to the closing of Peregrino.

Therefore, in fact, it's important to remember that we had already paid for the Peregrino signing in the previous quarter in September when we signed the deal. And this amount takes into account receivables and payables and price adjustments, which brings us to this $1.729. So it's a relevant figure for the formation of net debt, which went up a lot as a result of that CapEx of $134 and working capital impact of $184 million. That means that we continue to invest in the integrity of Albacora Leste. We continue to incur expenses related to the Wahoo campaign. And we also had some maintenance expenses in the Bravo cluster. And so that adds up to $134 million.

We made some share buybacks throughout the quarter, adding up to $122 million, a financial result of $34 million, and taxes of $24 million, which brings us to this net debt of $2.326 billion. Now, moving to slide number 16. Here we will briefly talk about leverage. We follow the net debt to adjusted EBITDA indicator very closely. Over the last few quarters, we've noticed a deleveraging of the company, very much as a result of the strong cash generation that we've been posting quarter after quarter. In this very specific case of the fourth quarter, there was an increase in leverage, which is natural because this is a result of the acquisition of 40% of Peregrino. We used a significant portion of our cash, and with that, net debt went up.

We went from 0.5x in the third quarter to 1.2 x in the fourth quarter of 2024. As a reminder, our covenant is 2.5 x. Therefore, we are very comfortable. We still have an unleveraged company with low leverage, very much under control, despite the significant acquisition. We remain prepared, therefore, to reinforce the company's capital structure if necessary or to carry out some kind of liability management while at the same time we will continue to generate cash from our operations. With that, I will now hand the floor over to Roberto, who will give us more details about ESG, and he will talk about the company's next steps. Thank you very much.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Thank you, Milton. I am coming back here to talk about the environment and society, and then we will talk a little bit about our next steps, our focus for the coming months. I think that the first point to highlight here is that just as our lifting costs have risen, our emissions have also risen over the course of 2024. We went to 25 kg of CO2 per barrel equivalent, which is an increase of 17% vis-à-vis the previous year. Here is the same story that I told you before about lifting costs. You have a fixed asset base, and here we have a fixed asset base that produces a certain amount of carbon, and we had a decrease in production. Therefore, when you divide this asset base by a lower production level, you will get an increase in this indicator. That is exactly what happened. What is behind this? The delay in implementing Wahoo, the delay in TBMT wells, which, I mean, we need approval for TBMT- 10H and TBMT-4H.

We need Ibama's approval to be able to change the pumps. The pumps have failed, which is a normal thing. I mean, these are also the biggest gas producers in the field. Not only it produces more oil, but it also produces gas and reduces the amount of carbon because we would no longer burn diesel, but instead, we will burn gas to generate electricity for the field. These are the main points regarding relative emissions. It's clear that now, by implementing the Wahoo project, this number will drop significantly because, once again, it's the same asset base. You will increase production, so emissions will drop. With regard to safety, which is our mantra, I mean, it has been our mantra, and so on, we promoted the internal accident prevention week. In short, we also did a lot of work on the regulatory and safety side throughout the fourth quarter of last year.

In terms of health and well-being, we continue moving forward with all of our quality of life programs. We also promoted a race, the Night Run, the Xterra, Embuços, and other activities. As for sponsorships, we have our I Love PRIO brand. We have done some new initiatives, including Natal Solidario or Solidarity Christmas, the musical Sound of Music, and Tanjobing, and so on. The company continues on this path of giving back to society and being as responsible as possible in terms of our emissions. Now, moving to the next slide, I am going to talk about our next steps. I mean, in fact, this is the focus we are going to have.

It doesn't mean that we are only going to look at this, but this is our main focus for the next coming months. Of course, I mean, the first and last ones, I always keep the same, which is health and safety and prospecting of new M&A opportunities. These are always the same. The three in the middle meaning that we are now going to focus very strongly on the environmental installation license for the Wahoo project. I n Wahoo, we have two licenses, the drilling license, which we got on February 28, and also the installation of the line, whereas one refers to making the wells or drilling the wells, and the other is connecting these wells to the Frade FPSO. This second one, which is the connection, is still missing.

The approvals to be able to do the workover of TBMT- 10H and TBMT-4H that we've talked about a lot in terms of lifting costs, carbon footprint, and so on . Ibama, a lot of work, implementation of the Wahoo project. We now started the implementation finally. The rig has started drilling. I mean, it's already drilling. Early this week, we had the spud. The spud is the time, meaning it's the moment when the rig starts drilling. This has already happened early this week. We are now drilling. Another major focus will be the operating efficiency of Albacora Leste. In December, we replaced two turbines on the FPSO. We had planned to replace a compressor in January, and this dragged on throughout January and February. It's only now in March that we are managing to solve the compressor issue.

Therefore, Albuquerque operation remains impacted by this delay. I think that with this new compressor, things will start to improve. In short, I mean, the focus is very much on the operating efficiency of Albuquerque Leste. Therefore, these are the main points that we are going to be working on during the next few months. With that, I would like to open up for questions. Thank you very much. I would like also to thank our employees, our partners, our investors who have always supported us, especially this past year, which was a more difficult year for the company. Thank you very much.

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us in this fourth quarter earnings conference call. We will now start the question and answer session. Our first question is fro m Luis Carvalho with BTG. Luis, go ahead.

Luis Cavallo
Research Analyst, BTG

[Foreign language]

Hi, everyone. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. If you'll allow me, I have three questions, perhaps a little bit more technical in the third one, more related to M&A. The first one, perhaps to Francisco Francilmar. When we look at the reserves report, one thing that drew attention is CapEx per well at Frade, which increased almost 70%. Could you explain? It increased from $33 million to $55 million. So it's 65%, 66% increase. Could you give us more detail regarding the reasons leading to this increase of CapEx per well at Frade? Secondly, Roberto, you talked about a higher lifting cost of Peregrino. If you could give us an update of the process to repair the line, when do you expect the OpEx to fall to a more, say, normalized level? And my third question is kind of inevitable, I have to ask, given some news published this week. What can you comment regarding the additional stake of Peregrino? I know that you might be limited in your answer, but since there was some news, I feel kind of obliged to ask you to say something a little bit about it.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Thank you, Luis. I would like to apologize. We never like to have a late earnings call, let alone on a Friday. We had a lot of trips for the whole team, and that was the only time that we could get. I apologize for a later call. All right, I can answer all three questions. The first one about the cost per well. Actually, we drilled wells at Frade at $30 million in the past with the NORBE rig. The first wells, about $50 million, $55 million. I think that the first one cost even more, close to $60 million. Our guidance was $70 million.

We invested $60 million. With time, we came to the cheapest well drilled at $30 million. This was a discussion I had with Francilmar. Are we going to consider $30 million, or will we leave the expected price at $50 million, which was the midpoint? I'm answering your question because this was a discussion that we had. It was not such a technical discussion. We were thinking, what is the forecast that we can give the market? Something that we can be sure to deliver rather than just the best well that we drilled. Something else. This applies to the infill of the 570. If you look at Bretty, Oga, and Maracanã, these wells are farther out. Over there, there will be some pipeline. These wells will cost a little more. That is why we maintained a $50 million or $55 million. As regards Peregrino, do you want to speak about Peregrino?

Francisco Francilmar
COO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Let me handle that. For Peregrino, Equinor's expectation of resuming gas in the first half of next year, that's the conversation we are having with Equinor. What we are doing in terms of helping is trying to see whether we can help in the project. As you know, we are a very verticalized company. We have rigs, we have support vessels, we have light construction vessels, Genesis, and so on and so forth. Perhaps we can use some of our equipment and a little bit of the material because we have a lot of material in the inventory. We have a strategic inventory of the company that allows us to be very agile in our developments. Perhaps we could use a little bit of our strategic inventory to have that connection beforehand, bring it forward.

I don't know whether this is going to play out. We suggested this to Equinor. This is being evaluated. There are a lot of technical discussions going on. The discussion is between the first half of next year or by year-end, by the end of this year, if we can work together with Equinor, supplying our equipment, providing some kind of service, and so on and so forth. You know, we are talking about the first half of next year or perhaps try to bring it forward to the end of 2025. The latest news about Peregrino. A number of people raised that hypothesis of Equinor selling a stake, so on and so forth. Our point is, if a deal possibility arises, what we've had in the past, that Petroreo, we heard that Petroreo was buying, and we said that that was not true.

Here, the news published is kind of based on the other news that they published. There is nothing really in the radar. Of course, we are interested. We have always said we are interested. If Equinor eventually wants to sell a working interest of the asset, we will be fully interested in considering the possibility because I think that this is a very synergic business, totally complementary to our shallow water operation.

Luis Cavallo
Research Analyst, BTG

[Foreign language]

Super clear. Thank you very much. Thank you for the questions.

Operator

[Foreign language]

Thank you, Luis. Next question from Gabriel Baja with Citi. Gabriel, go ahead.

Gabriel Barra
Equity Research Analyst, Citi

[Foreign language]

Hi everyone, Roberto and the whole team. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions. The first is a question that we kind of feel like we have to do regarding the license for the tieback. The latest update we had was that you had submitted a document to Ibama. There were 100 points to be discussed. I would like to hear from you about this discussion regarding the tieback. When do you expect this to come through? Is there a timeline for PRIO to receive the license? In possible and probable scenarios, which would be plan B, plan C? I mean, whatever you can share with us is helpful regarding the possible scenarios. Second question is about the buyback. Regarding capital allocation, the company has been performing a lot of buybacks before. The result, there was some deceleration in the fourth quarter of the company, but I would like to hear a bit about the strategy after the earnings. Should we expect a share buyback coming strong given the price of the share? If there are no M&A deals on the table, is this how you intend to use the company's cash? Thank you.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Gabriel, I'll speak about the license, and Francilmar will speak about the options we have regarding installation. We submitted to Ibama. Actually, Ibama suggested and asked for a number of adjustments in our EIA document, and we submitted the EIA document in January to Ibama, and we are waiting for their feedback on this. There were more than 100 points they wanted clarification for. We're expecting feedback from them in March. I'm not sure they're going to accept everything immediately. There might be some more interaction with the agency. If we hear from them in March, perhaps we can respond quickly, still in March, or perhaps in April. I talked about having the production license or the installation license in April. I think that we have everything on the table by mid-year. With this, we'll still get first oil this year. I'll let Francisco Francilmar speak about the situation of the vessels. The EIA document is the environmental impact study.

Francisco Francilmar
COO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Gabriel, Roberto spoke a little bit about the scenario, and we are getting prepared. We are trying to have everything prepared so that we can just kick the ball to the goal. We have the flexible line vessels being used in other installations. We have two fronts, rigid line laying vessels and flexible line laying vessels. We can use some of them in August and the rest a little bit further out. There is an initial phase before launching the rigid pipes. For the rigid lines, we launch the flexible lines. We can kind of play around with this, doing it a little earlier or a little later to accommodate the need.

If necessary, we'll compress the pipe laying as much as possible so that we can have first oil by year-end. The new part is the vessels. We have two lines to be laid, one line to be laid by Sapura and one line to be laid by the Amazon vessel by McDermott. The Amazon vessel now was shown to be available in the second half of the year, and Sapura has some work in the middle of the second half. We might inverse that to do the first line with McDermott and the second pipe line laying with Sapura. Regarding the shortage of vessels, it seems that we were able to find a good solution. We currently have two vessels hired for pipe laying. I don't think that the company will be sitting still waiting for a boat.

The big point is we are not going to be waiting for a time window to lay the pipes and the lines. This is something great we achieved in the last two or three months regarding the assets. Once we get the license, just like we started drilling straight away, we will start the installation straight away. For the installation license, LI, we will have more visibility when we get a return response from Ibama, which is expected still in March. We expect some response from them in March regarding the approval. Actually, some feedback regarding the EIA, the environmental impact study. Regarding share buyback, Gabriel, our expectation is to go back to repurchasing shares, of course, respecting the restrictions we have in terms of inside information and so on and so forth. We always have to keep an eye on that.

Our idea is to continue the buyback, particularly considering the current prices. There is very little left for a program to be completed, just $70 million, so a little less now with the share price. As soon as we can, we'll resume the buyback. We will go to the board so that the board will decide what to do with the 10% and perhaps open a new buyback program. Business as usual, nothing has changed. We always have to pay attention to the legal aspects regarding a share buyback.

Gabriel Barra
Equity Research Analyst, Citi

[Foreign language]

Very clear. Thank you very much. Thank you, Francilmar.

Operator

[Foreign language]

Our next question comes from Kyle Hibeiro with Bank of America. Kyle, over to you.

Caio Ribeiro
Managing Director, Bank of America

[Foreign language]

Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. First of all, my question relates to individual licenses that I think you still need to obtain for the other fields except Wahoo, and the alternative would be to ask for a global license, which would allow the company to do some workovers and some other interventions. I mean, what would be your preferred option once you consider both alternatives and whether you already made a decision about what would be the preferred alternative? My second question, referring to capital allocation, once an acquisition is not possible, I mean, in terms of the remaining stake from Equinor for Peregrino this year, would the company try to look at other options in the Gulf of Mexico, as you discussed in the past, or would you consider other alternatives?

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

In terms of the environmental license, I mean, of course, our desire would be to start with the drilling at Albacora Leste as soon as possible. However, Ibama calls the global licensing something like geographic area, which would encompass a license for the entire Campos Basin. This is a very lengthy process, and we know that, we are aware of that. In our conversation with Ibama today, it's the following. If this process takes too long, and this debate is occurring as we speak with Ibama, if this process takes longer than the rig time I have, I mean, the compromise rig, which is today Wahoo and soon TBMT, we are talking about a little over a year and a half in terms of the rig.

If a process takes longer than a year and a half, what we are trying to do with Ibama, of course, I mean, that also takes the fact that there has to be goodwill on their side. We will try to put more projects between Wahoo and Albacora or the daily license. And what are these projects? The main one would be Frade. Today, for technical reasons at Ibama, Frade licensing has been, you know, at its majority approved with EIA, which is all of the environmental licenses and impact licenses. It would be just an extension. If you look at our reserve certification, we already included a few items in that reserve certification because of that. So we have two- 570 wells. One is 1P, the other is 1C. We have Batoga, we have Maracanã.

If we obtain an extension of the Frade license, we would have at least one year of rigs in the Frade Field. I mean, we would not be doing Albacora yet, but the rig would be operational, and we would be putting oil in the system. This is quite important. We want to do Albacora, but we also have to understand what are the limitations in terms of the licensing aspect. This is plan A and plan B. The ideal, the perfect world would be Albacora. If we cannot go straight Albacora, our conversation now with Ibama is around putting Frade in the intermediary timeframe. Other things that we do not need licenses for, the Chitakusa licenses, the pre-salt in the Albacora Field that could be connected with no need of environmental license because it could be drilled by Petrobras. These are things that we could put along the way. We are looking at it. Most likely, this could be a solution.

Now, in regards to capital allocation, our focus still remains in Brazil, Gulf of Mexico. I'm not saying that this is a long shot, but in previous calls, I think I talked, I mean, I talked more about it. I mean, we are curious about the Gulf of Mexico. In order for us to go to the Gulf of Mexico, a series of things would have to happen. First of all, we have to look at a project that can give us adequate returns, etc. Maybe in the past, I talked more about it than I should. I would like to take that from the agenda right now. We remain focused in Brazil.

I think that Gulf of Mexico is a possibility for the future. It does not mean that, okay, if we do not buy anything now, by the end of the year, we will be at the Gulf of Mexico. No, I think we have to look at it very carefully, and it has to be based on data. I was also referring to Wilcott, which is the new basin or the new field that was discovered. Chevron just put a field there for their own production, and it is moving quite well and is progressing well. The majors can start migrating. This will certainly take time until the majors migrate completely. I mean, there is also the fact that they need to do capital allocation, and this could open new possibilities.

We are not saying, okay, if things do not work in Brazil, we will go to Gulf of Mexico. No, we will continue to buy shares if nothing happens in Brazil. Depending on the amount of money generated, maybe we can think in terms of dividends or not. We are not desperate to grow because the important thing is not to produce more, but it is to create more value. That is why I want to dismiss the thing about Gulf of Mexico. Let us focus on business opportunities, etc.

Caio Ribeiro
Managing Director, Bank of America

[Foreign language]

Perfect. That is very, very clear. Thank you, Roberto.

Operator

[Foreign language]

Our next question is from Tasso Vasconcellos with UBS. Tasso, go ahead.

Tasso Vasconcellos
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

[Foreign language]

Good afternoon, Roberto and team. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions. My first question, Roberto, maybe it is just a follow-up on the capital allocation issue. The company reached a level that maybe would make more sense for you to access a new asset level. In terms of M&A, like you did with Peregrino, that maybe four or five years ago, this would not be feasible given the number that you would have to pay for it. Now, a larger company with more assets also brings about higher complexities. I am not referring to loss of focus, but now you have a greater challenge because you are focusing on many things. In this regard, how would you balance this equation? How big, or I mean, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, what are you looking at, and what is your view going forward, and how can you conciliate your production? I mean, how can you move the needle of a company that produces 160,000 barrels a day, and how can you combine that with the focus in the assets you already have in your portfolio? My second question is, how do you see the oil market on the sales side after this greater volatility that we've experienced in the past few months?

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Thank you. These are very relevant questions. The first question relates to something very strategic. We talk a lot about it. Nelson is not here, but he is an individual that usually talks about that. I mean, what would make sense for PRIO today? Today, I can even tell you there's a very, very low likelihood that we would participate in any kind of consolidation in the Brazilian market with small fields. Onshore has always been a big no for us, and it continues to be a big no. This is exactly the point.

I mean, we would deviate the focus to something where you would allocate a little bit of capital, but on the other hand, you would have a huge headache. Therefore, today, I mean, with due respect to the capital or to money, I think we have to look at assets at around $2 billion or more, $1.5 billion, $2 billion, something in that vicinity. It could be even higher, but in the past, we were looking at assets at around $500,000 or $300,000 or $1 million. Unfortunately, even though these assets still exist in Brazil, these assets will not give us the necessary returns. To operate an FPSO in Peregrino is the same as operating an FPSO at TBMT. You increase the company's complexity, but your return, I mean, TBMT produces 15,000. Therefore, obviously, you have to balance that, and we keep that in mind all the time.

Therefore, our mindset is that we still have some large things in Brazil that we like, and we think that maybe in the future, we could move on with that. If that does not happen, we are not that desperate to just add a lot of small operations that would allow us to lose focus and lose efficiency. Albacora Leste, it is complicated enough. It is complicated enough. We are finally able to reverse the situation, but it has not been an easy journey, the one of Albacora Leste last year. That is why I say that we have to be very mindful of operating efficiency, our capacity to operate, because, you know, we are very verticalized. This is not an operation that you could do 10 things at the same time.

You have to do one, you know, solve it, and then if you can, you do another one. This is a very valid point and very important. We will look for big things. If there are no big things, we will probably do some share buyback or distribute dividends or maybe wait for some big opportunities in the market because they will come up at a given time. The second question, oh, you talked about the oil market. We see all of this volatility. I mean, volatility we see today does not correspond to the physical market. In the fourth quarter, we had $3.17 of discount. I mean, Bruno is in charge of the trading part of the company. I think physical market was $3.17. This month is very strong again in the physical market.

What we see in terms of this volatility has to do with the tariffs, U.S. recession, etc. I mean, the financial market, not physical, but the physical remains very strong and robust. It is even funny because you see that there is a mismatch between these two things. On the one hand, you have the rhetoric of what is being said. I mean, there are rumors that there might be a recession in the U.S., so oil prices tend to go down. In practical terms, when you look at it, the discounts are good.

Tasso Vasconcellos
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

[Foreign language]

Very clear, Roberto. Thank you.

Operator

[Foreign language]

Next question from Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley. Bruno, go ahead.

Bruno Montanari
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

[Foreign language]

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. Still on the M&A topic, I just want to understand whether these big opportunities are net. Are we talking about one big opportunity or several opportunities? Is this something you wish for, or do you think that the sellers have a game for you to join in 2025? I imagine that you are not going to take too long to make a decision regarding capital allocation. My second question, you have been spoken about a potential upside of gas. I would like to understand if we can quantify what we can expect in terms of volume, how you intend to monetize that, what kind of return the company will have, so we can do the math here.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Thank you, Bruno. I will let Bruno speak about Wahoo Gas. We are trading our gas, so there is already some gain there, but I will let Bruno explain that.

Bruno de Menezes
Chief Business Development and Trading Officer, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Wahoo Gas. As regards M&A activities, no M&A deal was finished today, except for Albacora, which was a public process. All of them were provoked, including the Sinochem one. They were all provoked by us. Sinochem decided to have a public process, an open process in the end, but we had been talking with Sinochem for a long time, many years. It is not like the asset is up for sale. No. Normally, good assets are never for sale. It was always our work of approaching the current operator of the asset and telling them, "Look, we can do this, we can do that, and this could be a good plan for you, the operator, for your monetization to monetize and for us to buy under those conditions." I mean, no assets are available for sale for everyone to consider. We approach the sellers. It is not going to be different this time.

If we speak about a $2 billion opportunity in Brazil, more than $2 billion, there are many opportunities, yes. If we exclude Petrobras from the equation, there is not a lot. We have to do hard work. We have to put in some legwork, and we have to meet with a lot of people, hold a lot of meetings with the major players outside Brazil, and little by little, we unlock possibilities. Nothing changes here. The strategy is exactly the same. Do we have like 10 assets available for sale? They are out there. We choose one. We say, "This is the time to focus on A," and we focus on A. We pursue A. This is what we did with Peregrino and TBMT and Frade. Same thing. Wahoo. Albacora was the only one which was a process everyone knew about and participated

Bruno Montanari
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

[Foreign language]

Before we hear about the Wahoo gas, as regards M&A deals, I forgot what I was going to say. Sorry for that. Let's hear about Wahoo gas, and I'll ask a follow-up.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

All right, Bruno. In the first quarter, we were selling the whole gas to Petrobras in an agreement we had with them. We started accessing the flow, the outflow system of the Campos Basin. We have a processing station at Cabiúnas. As of January, we have a surplus, 200,000-250,000 cubic meters daily, and we can access better prices after processing. When Wahoo comes online, that's a pre-salt reservoir with a lot of gas. That's going to get to 800,000-1 million cubic meters of gas, and we'll use the same system we use for what we currently have for this additional gas. We can increase revenue and reduce a little bit of the cost because we won't need to buy gas from Petrobras. That is kind of how it will play out. We'll start in the first quarter, and then we'll multiply it by four quarters when we have Wahoo.

Bruno Montanari
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

[Foreign language]

What I was going to ask about M&A is regarding these potential new opportunities. Would you consider using the same path you used for Peregrino? In other words, having a stake and not having operatorship, being a member of the consortium, or perhaps they are not convinced that PRIO is the best partner, so you'll buy a stake and then show your worth. What are you thinking?

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Bruno, we haven't got a firm yes, nor a firm no for that. It's all about, will this stake improve the opportunities for us better than being the operator? If the answer is yes, that's something to consider. If it's about buying a non-op field just because we are not the operators, we wouldn't go ahead with it because we like to operate. We like to be the operators. That's where our synergies come from. In the specific case of Sinochem, we acquired a non-op portion or stake because we envisioned a good commercial synergy. We were able to reduce the discount of $16 per barrel to $10.5. In this quarter, for Q2, the discount is $9.8. We found operational and commercial synergy. Bruno is exploring this, is running this, and it's doing quite well. We also have a preemptive variety if Equinor wants to sell the asset. These two elements together combined led to a yes on our part. You will remember that we were partners some time ago of Manatee Field.

We had a 10% working interest of Manatee. We didn't have any expectation of becoming operators of Manatee Field. It actually didn't really fit our business line, some gas in the north, etc., though the field was interesting. But we had acquired it at a low price, so we divested. I gave you two extreme examples. We don't have any firm yes nor a firm no. We'll look into possibilities. If there is a clear value generation possibility, it's a yes.

Bruno Montanari
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

[Foreign language]

Okay, it's clear. Thank you.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Thank you, Bruno.

Operator

[Foreign language]

Next question from Regis Cardoso with XP. Regis?

Regis Cardoso
Head of Oil & Gas Equity Research, XP

[Foreign language]

Hello, everyone. Thank you for your time for taking my questions. I have follow-up questions and one different question. The different question is about the production curve this year. I understand there is a maintenance stoppage expected now in March. That's something we should know about. T he other is a follow-up question. When we were discussing the size of the assets, would it make sense for you to think about recycling capital from lower clusters, TBMT, for example? Another follow-up question of prior topics. When you were discussing the size of the buyback program, do you expect a maximum volume of money that you can make? I was going to ask you to repeat the explanation about the Wahoo line because we went through that very fast, and I would like to get more detail. If I ask too many questions, I can repeat them.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

I'll speak about Wahoo. Production curve for the year. To give you more detail regarding the schedule, we have one scheduled maintenance at Frade, scheduled for March, and it was postponed for April. That should stop for 12 days. It's primarily for some works to couple Wahoo. That is what we are planning. In what words? The middle of the year, there will be a quick stoppage at Albacora Leste, three to four days. Regarding production, that is it. The rest is about efficiency. We try to see the scheduled and unscheduled downtime, and we plan for that. To speak about production lines at Wahoo, the initial project are two lines. One primary pipe, a secondary one. We divide the project. We had contracted a first boat earlier for first oil, and the second line was not necessary immediately, so it was left for later. We contracted another boat when there was a delay. Now there was another delay, and now we have two lines with two boats available. Two pipe laying projects. We have to match one boat comes first and then the other boat. There is also an extension window, which is interesting.

This is just to give you some visibility and comfort regarding the availability of materials and pipe laying boats and vessels. The vessels were always a bottleneck for Wahoo and the Wahoo project. What is important that you understand is that the bottleneck for the second half, we were kind of envisioning a big bottleneck because Sapura, the pipe laying support vessel, will be working Trinidad and Tobago. We thought there might be a bottleneck, but friends from Wahoo and the team were able to bring back an Amazon vessel for the second half. Where Sapura was shown to be unfeasible for us because they have another work outside of Brazil, Amazon came along. We are ready to start at any time in the second half from now to any time in the second half. We are prepared to start pipe laying. This was the reason why we spoke a little about the Wahoo vessels.

Regis Cardoso
Head of Oil & Gas Equity Research, XP

[Foreign language]

May I ask a follow-up on that? I don't know whether this is related to $20 million additional CapEx in the certification. Did you use that? The timing, Francilmar, I think, mentioned December. I'd like to understand if this is as early as possible, the earliest possible.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

It will really depend on the license. I don't want to be very precise regarding setting a date because here's where I can say we have everything to have first oil still this year, but I don't want to set a date, a precise date. I can promise you the day we get the environmental license, soon after we get the environmental license, we will communicate the schedule and we'll say we'll have first oil on such a date. We'll tell you which fortnight of which month we'll have first oil, okay? For now, let's leave it at that. As for the $20 million, no, the $20 million have nothing to do with the vessel. Actually, a little bit with the vessel, but a little bit with everything. The rig was stopped. We had a lot of to and fro in the project, so the project ended up absorbing a little bit more cost, $850 million. We revised it, revisited for $850 million. When we get the environmental license, we'll tell you it is exactly $850 million, $860 million, $830 million. We'll give you a number.

There will be no material change in the numbers, nothing of the sort, but we will communicate this to you when we get the license. We'll see. First oil is expected for such a date, and total CapEx will have been so many millions. There are still a lot of things happening, and that brings a little bit of uncertainty. We revisited the number to $850 million, but this is just to have a number that matches the reality more, but there is nothing 100% finished or 100% set. The project still has a certain level of uncertainty.

Regis Cardoso
Head of Oil & Gas Equity Research, XP

[Foreign language]

Thank you. I do not want to take much of your time. The rest was about capital recycling and maximum size of the buyback.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Regarding capital recycling, Regis, no. In the case of Manatee, it made sense because we had nothing else to do with Manatee. In the case of Polvo and TBMT, which would be the natural candidate for recycling, it is not really the case because of our business strategy. If we are successful with Peregrino and we said that we are interested in buying the rest, it's nothing happening today, but if the moment comes, the opportunity arises to become an operator of Peregrino, it would be interesting to have Polvo and TBMT because it is the full shallow water cluster that we need to get part of the synergy. We cannot do away with that potential synergy. This is why capital recycling through this wouldn't make sense. Now, for the other fields, you know, when we like an asset, we like to have a lot of that asset. We might sell a piece of Frade, a stake of Albacora, possibly, but it's not what we're thinking. The operating effort is all ours. Maintenance, maintenance plan, everything is up to us. It's all our effort, so we should concentrate. That's always our strategy.

As for the size of buyback, we do buyback according to the regulation of up to 10% of our capital. The whole buyback program that we approve will be 10% of capital. The question is how much time it will take to buy 10% of the capital. If we do it in one month, it might be too much, but buying 10% of capital along eight months, 12 months, I do not see any problem in executing that. Every time we do it, we have to submit it to the board of directors. We have to come up with a new plan.

Regis Cardoso
Head of Oil & Gas Equity Research, XP

[Foreign language]

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

[Foreign language]

Thank you, Regis. Our next question comes from Vicente Falanga with Bradesco. You may proceed.

Vicente Falanga
Analyst, Bradesco

[Foreign language]

Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. I also have two questions. Chevron lost their license to export oil to Venezuela, heavy oil, API of 10-13 degrees. They are around the range of your fields. Even, you know, they said that they would replace that oil from Brazil oil, the Middle East, and Gulf of Mexico. Do you see that as a commercial opportunity for you or maybe, you know, depending on the sale price? My second question is I would like to address Francilmar. You said that you think about participating at some other prospects of current fields, maybe doing some more seismics. I would like to check with Francilmar whether you already have any target that excites you.

Bruno de Menezes
Chief Business Development and Trading Officer, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Hi, Vicente. Yes, we see, we are interested in this, you know, it's gaining momentum. As Roberto was saying, in the second quarter, we will have Peregrino's oil, and we already improved our discount by almost a dollar. Therefore, we see that happening. I think that's it. I mean, in a simplified way, we see that happening. This already had an impact on Peregrino in the second quarter, and the demand for Brazil is quite strong because Brazil is in a very good position because we have oil in the Atlantic. In terms of oil, we are not restricted in terms of oil sales to the world. Therefore, our oil has high demand, and we are working with our teams to minimize or maximize the discounts. The Venezuelan oil would traditionally go to the Gulf of Mexico. I mean, heavy oil close to the Gulf of Mexico is Brazil. I mean, there is no other alternative.

We are seeing a little bit of that already happening. Vicente, I mean, I would say this is a normal process in the company. As the company grows, we have a stronger balance sheet, and then we pursue the strategy to expand our search area. We are already doing some exploitation in our own block, looking for other opportunities. I mean, we increase production, reserves, etc. The next step would be almost like increasing the area of research. Everything that is in the vicinity of the objective today is to increase the number of people putting oil and working harder. I do not have any name for you. All I can say is that we are working diligently to see if we find something interesting when it comes to exploiting areas to maximize our operation.

I mean, we would increase production using the same assets, same infrastructure, and life goes on. What I said is that as the years come by, we will gradually increase or grow. We started with the first tieback, I mean, 10 km, and then we grew to 30 km. It's almost like I would get a compass, and I would cover an area of 30 km. That's what the Americans do. We are not reinventing the wheel. We are just implementing what is already there.

It makes total sense. Thank you very much.

[Foreign language]

Thank you, Vicente.

Operator

[Foreign language]

Our next question from Bruno Amorim from Goldman.

Bruno Amorim
Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

[Foreign language]

Thank you. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I have a very quick follow-up in regards to the decline of the assets that you've been operating for quite some time. At some point, at the end of 2023, you reached 100,000 barrels a day. With some volatility, the company is running close to 75,000. So there was a decline of about 25% in a year and a half. I mean, this would be like on an annual basis, 15%. I think this is pretty much in line with what you expected, around 10%. A good part of this performance may be attributed to the lack of licenses. Can you please elaborate on that? Do you think that you could attribute this delta to lack of license or the asset is a bit more difficult to operate when compared to what you expected originally? Maybe you can let us, you can give us an idea of the underlying trend from now on.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

W e have to make a distinction. Last year's delta included the failure of TBMT- 10, 4 and DPD-3. This is about 100,000 barrels. Out of this number, 7,000 barrels, I mean, stopped because of a lack of license. It's not a natural decline. There is another issue. In Albacora, I mean, it depends pretty much. If you look at the average of one year versus the other year, you may not hold to be true, but if you look at the last quarter of 2023, vis-à-vis 2024, Albacora's operating efficiency was 10 basis points higher. We had 75 efficiency points in the last quarter of 2023, and the average was 75% in 2024. I mean, if you draw the average for the year, and this should be equivalent to 2,500 barrels a day. The actual difference here is Frade.

In Frade, we expected a decline, a decline of X, with a certain decline coming from the new wells. These new wells, in fact, the two new wells drilled in 2024 had a higher decline when compared to our expectation. This is what led us to that loss of 4 million barrels in terms of the reserve certification. Today, this reserve curve, when you look at it, I mean, Frade, PDP of Frade already takes into account this new interpretation of the wells and of that decline. That is what happened. I believe that the best way, I mean, instead of saying there was a drop of X % year- on- year, I mean, today, the best information we have or the best view we have of our production is what is posted in our reserve certification. You have PDP.

PDP is what is in production, what has been drilled and is ready in production. You have some new CapEx. You have TBMT that we think it will be resumed. I mean, it is just a matter of when. I mean, if you agree with us that it will be resumed in the date that appears in the certification or not, but on top of that, PDP, you already see a base, which is our best estimate regarding the existing assets, the way they are producing and they are installed. Our exit of this year should be around 110,000 barrels a day. You should remember that we produce 115,000 in January, minus 108,000, mostly because of Albacora, and there is Peregrino polymer that they tested in February, polymer that I do not know if it is a name. I do not know if our production, I mean, should be running around 115,000. I think that we will have TBMT, and even then it will go down to 110,000. Then we have Wahoo on top with 40,000. Our expectation is to come by year-end with 150,000. This is pretty much it.

Thank you, Roberto.

[Foreign language]

Thank you, Bruno.

Operator

[Foreign language]

With this question, we are closing the Q&A session. I'll turn the floor to Roberto for his final statements.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, Peace Research Institute Oslo

[Foreign language]

Thank you, José. Thank you to all who remained with us in this earnings call referring to the year 2024. I would like to thank our employees. I would like to thank society as a whole, and I'd like to thank you investors who have always supported us along this journey. I'll see you soon for the first Q2025.

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