Prio S.A. (BVMF:PRIO3)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2021

May 4, 2021

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to PetroRio's conference call to discuss first quarter 2021 results. Thank you for waiting. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session for analysts and investors when further instructions to participate will be provided. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please dial star 0 for an operator. This event is also being broadcast simultaneously over the internet via webcast and may be accessed through PetroRio's investor relations website at ir.petroriosa.com.br by clicking on the banner for 1Q 2021 earnings release. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements that might be made during this conference call relative to the company's business perspective, projections, and operating and financial goals are based on the beliefs and assumptions of PetroRio's management and on information currently available to the company.

Forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions as they are related to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of PetroRio and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Roberto Monteiro, CEO, Mr. Milton Rangel, CFO, and Mr. Francisco Francilmar Fernandes, COO. Mr. Monteiro, please go ahead.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Good day. Thank you very much for joining us today. I would like to once again start this call thanking the PetroRio team. We are living difficult and challenging moments, but we have been performing really well amidst all of the difficulties that we are all facing on a day-to-day basis.

I would like to start thanking my team for their perseverance and discipline. Now moving to slide three, we have the highlights of the period. The first highlight that I think it is important to underscore is our EBITDA. In the first quarter, our EBITDA totaled BRL 428 million, 12x higher than the first quarter of 2020. Of course, in 2020, we already felt the early COVID effects. The pandemic started in March 2020, so we have a little bit of an effect there. As part of this EBITDA, we have to take into account two important things this year. First, a higher production, most likely a record mark in the company's history, and a Brent oil price that is also higher. We took an average and it was higher than $60 per barrel. It's been a while since we have seen this happen.

A second point about this first quarter that is important to highlight was our follow-on offer. We raised $370 million, approximately BRL 2 billion in January. We had a capital increase. We had a book that was more than three times oversubscribed, meaning we had three times more orders than the size of the book. So it was very successful. Here I would like once again to thank both our new shareholders and the shareholders already in our base at the time. We always had a lot of support from all of them. This follow-on prepared the company for growth, either organic growth via investments in the fields that we already have or preparing for inorganic growth through acquisition of new fields.

We also had the approval by ANP, the regulatory agency, of the 30% stake of Frade field that we had acquired from Petrobras in 2019, and this was finally approved in February of 2021. We also acquired the working interest belonging to Total in the Wahoo field, 28.6%. As we mentioned in the past, we were interested in acquiring that, so we finalized that deal. We also had a stratification of reserves and resources, adding 92 million barrels of 1C resources and reserves for the company. This was very interesting because we already included Wahoo field. We've already included the 64.3% working interest of Wahoo. This gives us a pretty good idea of 1C reserves, which in the future can become 1P after the declaration of commerciality and so on and so forth. Now moving to slide four, please.

Here I'm going to address some items in perhaps more detail, and then I'll turn the floor to Francilmar. The first point on slide four was a reduction of our lifting cost. We have here $14.3, reducing the lifting cost a bit quarter-over-quarter. It's still a little below what we would like. The main reason why it fell a little below our expectation was some downtime at Polvo, given a problem we had in the boiler of the FPSO operated by BW. This cost us a little bit, although the number is a little lower than in Q4 2020 at $14.3. A very good lifting cost. We could have done even better. The next item here is increased production. The main reason explaining this increase in production was the approval of the 30% stake belonging to Petrobras. We increased from an average production of 29,900 to 31,300.

As we mentioned in the first quarter, we had the stoppage of the Polvo FPSO, a downtime of 10 days on account of the boiler. We had a stoppage of one pump in the TBMT field, Tubarão Martelo. Here it's important to differentiate the issues. Of course, the FPSO performance is something that we have to address, and this will be addressed. It is being addressed, as we will keep this FPSO until July of this year. Now the pump, the ESP, that's the day-to-day of an oil company. We'll continue to have pumps that fail. This is our day- to-day. Of course, it did catch us a little by surprise because this TBMT ESP requires a rig called Kingmaker that we acquired in the end of last year, but it is in the process of overhaul.

Now we have just finished the overhaul process of this rig, and we will replace the electric submersible pump, ESP. These pumps are routine for the company. These things will continue to happen. It's not a surprise. The FPSO, yes, that was a little surprising and we are taking measures and addressing that topic. Well, our cash position increased to BRL 3,370 million, almost $600 million in cash. When I said that the company's prepared for what's coming in the future, that's what I meant. We have a lot of firepower, almost $600 million in cash. This is reflected on our net debt over EBITDA ratio. That was 1.2x in the fourth quarter of 2020, which was already a good number and is now down to - 0.95.

In other words, we used to be a net debt company and are now a net cash company. We used to have more debt than cash, and now we have more cash than debt. This is what this indicator means. Even if we were to eliminate the effect of the follow-on offer, we would still have seen an improvement in the company's leverage. The company performed well, operationally speaking. In addition, the company also had the follow-on on top of this good performance that made the company completely prepared and ready for the next challenges and for the next steps we'll take to drive organic and inorganic growth. With that, I will turn the floor to Francilmar to discuss our operations, and then Milton will speak about the financials, and I will be back at the end to talk about the next steps. Thank you very much, Francilmar.

Francisco Francilmar Fernandes
COO, PRIO

Thank you, Roberto. Hello, everyone. Starting on slide five, we have the performance of our assets. The most relevant highlight in this quarter, given all the numbers that we know well in this table and that everyone monitors, the relevant point is in February. On February 5th, we completed the deal of the remaining 30% stake of Frade field. Now we own 100% of the field, and that has had a positive impact on the company's total production. That's the Frade line item. The other fields, Polvo and TBMT, posted a certain reduction in production, and I will explain later on what caused that. It wasn't a one-time off event. Here's the lifting cost. This is indeed the main indicator of the company's operations. Here we see return to a better level than presented in the prior quarter when there was an upward push.

I will detail this on the next slide. Please go to slide six. We see on the top left hand corner the traditional graph showing the evolution of the company's lifting cost. In Q4 2020, we had an increase in this number, but we worked to bring it back to more comfortable numbers, better numbers for the company. Again, we had some complications, particularly linked to Polvo field, where we had a problem with the FPSO at Polvo, which is chartered and is reaching the end of its contract life. I will detail this further on when I talk about the operating performance of Polvo. We also had a problem with one well at TBMT field where an ESP pump failed. I'll speak more about that when I speak about that specific asset.

We have one less well operational at TBMT. On the positive side, we had some impacts that helped our production and that kind of offset these issues. We integrated the final 30% volume that remained of Frade when the deal was finally recognized in February, and we had all of the measures that we adopted along the year. Even holding back on some maintenance service, we are now able to do everything that we postponed before, and we are still controlling costs. Also, we had a little help from the foreign exchange with the BRL depreciating vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar, and that helped a little. We are fully aware that the main indicator for the company in economic terms is the lifting cost. A good deal of our effort is focused on that.

We believe we are going to have one more difficult quarter while we finalize the tieback of Polvo and TBMT still operating with the Polvo FPSO. Then we should expect a considerable improvement. On slide seven, we will speak in more detail about Frade. Operationally speaking, the field had a good quarter, unfortunately impacted by the performance of one well, MUP3, where we had hydrate formation that actually started in the previous quarter, a problem that had not been solved. As we can see operating efficiency considering our full production capacity versus actual production. That had a negative impact on the operating efficiency of the field as a whole. The FPSO is performing well, and all of the metrics of the field look good.

In the end of April, we started a scheduled maintenance that was actually scheduled for last year, but we postponed it on account of the pandemic. It started now on April 28th and it should last eight days. Moving to slide eight, let's speak a little about Polvo. Polvo field had another complicated quarter given the low performance of the FPSO Polvo, which is chartered for the field, and it's getting to the end of its contract. We expect the transition from FPSO Polvo to FPSO Bravo at TBMT by July. In this final phase, we are running into some complications, low performance of some of the equipment. We had practically 10 days of downtime in the energy generation system, which is boiler-based on that FPSO, and that impacted the process as well. That really hindered production and performance at Polvo.

On the other hand, we are sparing no efforts to continue with a good operation in this remaining period of the FPSO, operating with safety, good numbers, and hopefully, and as much as possible in good operating conditions until the end of the contract. Also in this quarter, we were able to finally complete all the remaining geological and financial analysis to start drilling another well in the Eocene reservoir. This began in Q1 2021, and drilling of this well is unfolding well. We expect to finish it and put it into production in the coming weeks, and we'll keep the market informed about this. Moving to slide 10, to Tubarão Martelo field, TBMT.

Here to be highlighted is a problem we had in well 44, a problem linked to flow assurance, but our team was able to control it relatively fast, and the well is back to operating in normal conditions. In the beginning of March, the ESP pump failed in well eight. The pump is responsible for pumping out the production of the well. It failed in the beginning of March. The well has been shut down since then, we are waiting for the workover to replace this electric submersible pump, ESP. Here two observations are in order. The first is that TBMT field as well as Polvo both produce heavy oil and require submersible pumps, ESP, to ensure production at the field. When these pumps fail or stop, we have to be ready to replace them immediately.

We do this as a routine at Polvo and are now starting to do it at TBMT. The second observation is that we made the right decision last year when we acquired a specific rig to carry out workovers at TBMT, precisely to handle this type of situation. We are working to prepare this rig. We are actually finalizing it. This pump failure caught us a little before we expected, the rig is practically ready to start operating and to do the workover by the end of May or June. I believe that by July or August, that well will be online again. FPSO Bravo showed good efficiency. It is very good equipment that makes us very hopeful and strengthens our investment thesis because all of the complications and low efficiency that we have at FPSO Polvo will be offset by this FPSO at Tubarão Martelo.

Moving now to slide 11, let me give you a general update on the Polvo TBMT tieback. The project is advancing full steam and the physical progress is over 60%. The financial part is also according to plan. So far, everything is on plan, on budget. Despite all the difficulties imposed by the pandemic and all, our crews were able to deal with all that. Manufacturing of lines and delivery of equipment, it is all going according to plan to be finalized by July. Well number 10 at TBMT should come into play more or less in parallel. As soon as we finish the workover to replace the pump at well eight, the teams will come in with a rig to complete well number 10 to finish by September.

On the right, we see an illustration of one of the coils that has part of the production flexible line. Please go to slide 12, where I give you an update on the Wahoo Block. We acquired the 28.6% stake that belonged to Total. With that, PetroRio owns 64.3% of the block. What matters is that we were already the operator of the part acquired from BP, 35.7%. With that, we started preliminary engineering work to fine-tune the knowledge and see what kind of solutions we can use to improve financial costs and how we can bring forward the startup of operations. In other words, to improve all conditions.

We'll prepare the development plan, DP, in the coming months. We believe that by the end of the second half, we should be coming to an agreement with the rest of the consortium and submitting the development plan to the agency for approval. Excellent news. On slide 13, we see the company's certification of reserves and resources. In this quarter, we updated the numbers already including Wahoo Block, and showing a significant increase in all scenarios. I'd like to draw your attention to this part on the right, where we see an increase in reserve levels. We practically doubled 1P and 1P plus 1C from 2020 to 2021. Here we can see two representative figures, 1 87 million additional from Wahoo related to PetroRio's share of 64.3%. Also representing the figure of the field and the potential to help us grow the company.

Another important number is the evolution of 1P reserves of the assets that we already have in production, TBMT, Polvo and Frade, from 113 to 118. Now, that's already considering what was produced along 2020. This reflects an increase of over 10 million barrels and more than 10% of what we have in one year with production at full steam. All the other reserves, 2P plus 2C and 3P plus 3C, have had considerable increases. Another important point for us to consider is the extension of Frade field's lifespan. Once we form another cluster, Frade plus Wahoo, we extend production that was expected to end in 2034 to 2054, proving once again that the company chose the right strategy to extend the lifespan of fields and increase recovery factors. With that, I end my presentation and I turn the floor to Milton. Thank you.

Milton Rangel
CFO, PRIO

Thank you, Fran cilmar.

Good afternoon, everyone. To continue our presentation, on slide 14, we present the company's financial performance in the quarter. Considering the columns, excluding the impact of IFRS 16, our revenue totaled BRL 655 million, resulting from the sale of approximately 1 million barrels of Frade and about 900,000 barrels considering Polvo and TBMT, plus the revenue from Manati of about BRL 27 million. Considering cost of goods sold, royalties, G&A, and other operating revenues and expenses, our EBITDA was BRL 407 million in the quarter, 62% EBITDA margin. Another highlight is our financial result, -BRL 320 million , very much influenced by foreign exchange variation to be explained in the next slide. With that, we reported a loss in Q1 2020 of almost BRL 40 million. If we consider the effects of IFRS 16, this loss reached BRL 65 million.

The last highlight on this slide is our Adjusted EBITDA, a strong EBITDA of BRL 427 million. I'd like to remind you that this Adjusted EBITDA excludes non-recurring items and non-operational items. In other words, it better reflects the company's ability to generate cash. We also reached an EBITDA margin of 65% in the quarter, a higher margin compared with all quarters in 2020. Given the recovery in oil prices, as well as synergies captured by the company and cost reduction initiatives. We were able to deliver a very high profitability margin. As regards IFRS 16 results, Adjusted EBITDA was close to BRL 470 million in the quarter with a 72% EBITDA margin. To continue, moving on to slide 15, let's speak about the financial results of the company in more detail.

We have two columns here, one excluding and one including IFRS 16 results. The main point that I would like to highlight has to do with this line item, a loss of BRL 211 million in our financial result regarding foreign exchange variation on intercompany loans. What's happening here? We had some Brazilian companies in our PetroRio group that were taking on intercompany loans from foreign companies in our group, particularly in Luxembourg. These Brazilian companies borrowed money in USD, and the BRL depreciated in the quarter with a USD-BRL ratio of around $1 to BRL 5.80, depending on the moment along the quarter. With that, we recognized this loss linked to the exchange variation impacting these loans. Due to accounting rules, we are not able to deduct these losses from the gains that Luxembourg companies had with the same loans.

This happens because Luxembourg companies already report in dollars, and this foreign exchange gain, given that they are creditors, is adjusted directly via shareholders' equity. The result shows this distortion. What stands out is the loss of the borrowing Brazilian companies. However, the counterpart is not observed in the result because it is booked directly in the shareholder equity through the CTA. This is just a little bit of information to explain why we have this kind of pollution in our financial result. In addition, we highlight that exchange variation does not have a direct impact on the financial health of PetroRio, because the majority of the cash is invested mainly in foreign currency, mainly dollars. Our revenues, the company's EBITDA, is very much exposed to foreign currency, given that we sell oil, and oil is priced in dollars.

A good part of our variation, a good part of our cash generation, is also dollarized. Moving to slide 16, let's speak a little about funding. The first graph on the left shows the evolution of the cost of the company's working capital, our indebtedness cost. Given the very successful follow-on and improved liquidity of the company, as well as improved loan profile overall for the company, we have been getting loan facilities for working capital at more and more attractive costs. We have been working with world-class banks, both Brazilian and foreign banks, and we have been replacing more expensive debt that we carried in our balance sheet by cheaper loans. Another very important piece of information related to this is that we have been able to replace expensive debt by cheaper debt.

Despite of a lower cost, we have been able to increase the duration of loans for working capital. We used to have loans payable in six or nine months, but now all of these new loan facilities have a duration of one year. Not only were we able to improve the cost profile, but also the duration profile of our debt simultaneously. On the right, we see the amortization schedule. As I explained, we had a very successful follow-on, raising more than BRL 2 billion. This provided important reinforcement for our cash, giving the company very comfortable liquidity to serve the obligations that we have, both in the short term, less than 12 months, and to serve our commitments in the second or third year, and generally speaking, a better situation for the company.

I'd like to remind you that we've been very successful in rolling over a good part of our debt, which gives us even more peace of mind regarding our financial position. Lastly, please go to slide 17 for more details regarding the company's leverage. An indicator that we like to follow up close is net debt over Adjusted EBITDA ratio. I'd like to remind you that Adjusted EBITDA excludes non-recurring and non-operational effects. Thus, it better depicts the company's cash generation. As regards the recent past, the first quarter of the year, because of the follow-on, we are now a net cash company. This ratio is now negative. It is now at -0.9 time approximately, with a net cash of more than BRL 1 billion.

Another important point that I would like to highlight is that even if we were to exclude the effect of the follow-on on PetroRio's cash, this ratio would have been 0.6 time of leverage. Now, in Q1, when we compare this with 1.2x in December 2020, also without the follow-on effect, because the follow-on happened in February, this shows that the company has a strong ability to generate operating cash. Regardless of the follow on, we would have been able to post a significant reduction in the company's leverage quarter-on-quarter. Now I turn the floor back to Roberto, who will talk about the next steps, and then we will have the Q&A. Thank you very much.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Thank you, Milton. Well, I will go over the next steps before we open up the floor to questions.

The first, as expected, is our focus on safety and health, so that we can continue to perform as we have done in recent quarters, even in the middle of this whole confusion, the COVID pandemic, et cetera. Getting into more detail about our operating projects. We now have some very important projects going on. The first, as Francilmar mentioned, is the tieback project between Polvo and TBMT, which we expect for the first half of July of this year. The project is unfolding well, and it is a very important project for the company because in addition to increasing a lot the efficiency of both fields, it also reduces both our lifting cost and CO2 emissions. It is a project that optimizes everything. It is a very interesting project that is about to finish.

We have here two wells, one at Polvo, as we decided to drill the Eocene reservoir at Polvo, and we expect to have it operational soon. We have the TBMT well to be drilled in Q3 of 2021. Two wells that should start production in the coming months. In addition to that, we have to prepare to begin the drilling campaign at Frade. Our goal would be to start drilling at Frade field this year. Let's speak about things that are not set operational in nature that have more to do with regulatory and M&As. The approval of Wahoo by ANP, it is very important to have that so that we can declare commerciality of the field and start preparing for the tieback project between Wahoo and Frade.

Lastly, a strong focus on inorganic growth through acquisitions, M&A opportunities, as this has been our DNA in recent quarters and years. These are the next steps that we have ahead of us. With that, I'd like to open the floor to questions. Here with me, we have Francilmar, COO, Milton, CFO, and Emiliano, our Legal, Administrative and Regulatory Officer. Thank you very much. Let's have the questions now, please.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen we will now begin the question and answer session for analysts and investors. If you have a question please press star one on your touch tone phone now. If at anytime you would like to remove yourself from the questioning queue, press star then two. Our first question comes from Christian Audi with Santander.

Christian Audi
Analyst, Santander

Thank you. Hello, Roberto, Milton, Francilmar. To start, congratulations on the results. Very positive results across the board.

Production, volume, costs, and the financials. Congratulations. I had three questions. One of them is more strategic. The first question, Roberto and Francilmar, I think you gave us a lot of details on the problems that occurred at Frade, Polvo, and TBMT. I just want to understand, could you give us a big picture of what was expected and what was the surprise? What worries you more considering these issues? Francilmar, you gave us a lot of details, but I just want to understand what's left in terms of issues that was not resolved when we consider MUP3 at Frade, the Polvo problems, the boiler, and then well 44 at TBMT. My second question is, looking forward, Brent discounts. What do you expect in terms of Brent price discounts, perhaps for the next quarter? Finally, Roberto, on the strategic side, could you tell us about the Albacora process?

Have you felt any change given all of these changes that are happening at Petrobras regarding the Albacora process, and what would be the next steps? Also on the strategic side with Wahoo, after the success with BP and Total, what about BP's interest in acquiring your stake at Wahoo?

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Thank you, Christian. Thank you for the questions. I will answer all three, and Francilmar is here with me, so if Francilmar wants to add to the first question, no problem. Regarding operating problems, if we can call them that. Let's start with Frade. We had MUP-3 that had a hydrate formation last year. We were able to open the field for 15 days or a little more than that. If I'm not mistaken, that was in February.

The well started presenting problems again, so we decided to shut it down again to try to resume production sometime in the coming days or months. This well is now producing. We try to have the well producing through another path, but it didn't work as we wanted. These wells have redundancy, so we tried to use the redundancy, but it didn't work out as we expected. Now we still are trying to open the well using its original path, and that's why it's taking a little longer. Regarding Frade, this is one point, and it's out of the ordinary. Regarding Polvo, what is out of the ordinary is the BW FPSO. It is underperforming because of the boiler problem. We had a 10-day downtime because of that boiler.

Candidly, we've been struggling to have BW perform as expected, both in terms of production and in terms of maintenance of the FPSO. We don't see a problem regarding that from the safety standpoint. It's a kind of a dispute. We want to bring the FPSO at the level of excellence that we are used to having. That's what we are pursuing. That's something that we have to address. How do we address it? With a tieback. Regarding Tubarão Martelo, we have one well that is down, well number eight, Tubarão Martelo eight. This well had been producing from the very beginning of the field, and the pump failed. It produced for seven years, and then it finally failed, and now we need to carry out a workover.

The workover requires that rig that we acquired last year, and that rig is going through an overhaul, and that caught us a little by surprise. MUP-3 and well number eight at TBMT, these are routine for us. These are operational and expected things. We like to report it because we want to be transparent with the market, this is our day-to-day. What is kind of an outlier is the performance of the FPSO at Polvo. Polvo is performing sometimes under a 90% in some months, that is too low. I would say that this is going to be treated FPSO at Polvo because we know we are going to have the FPSO for another 60 days. We'll start using the FPSO at TBMT, which is showing excellent performance since we acquired the FPSO.

Regarding Brent oil price, today, we are operating Frade at a discount of $1.50- $2 for Frade and for Polvo and TBMT, we are running at levels of $3.50 or $3 discount, around that range. We might have one offload of 500,000 barrels before July. It should have a greater discount because that oil had a little bit more water. The maximum acceptable is 1%. This one has a 3%-4% water content, the discount will be a little higher. We've been using this oil blend for the offtake. We always sell the oil with 1% water content. Now with the transfer of the FPSO, we might have to sell it all at once. There will be a greater discount, but still a one digit discount. Nothing out of the ordinary. A little higher.

This is what we expect in terms of Brent oil discount. Things are unfolding well. They are normalized, and we're almost back to IMO 2020 and pre-COVID times. I think that we are at good discount levels. Regarding Albacora, so far we haven't seen and we haven't identified any change with Petrobras. We know the bid will happen in July. To date, it is expected to happen in the first half of July. We don't know whether this is going to be pushed forward or not. That's not under our control. I would say that it is expected to happen in July, perhaps in the first 15 days of July. We haven't noticed any change in Petrobras' attitude regarding this process. We don't have anything to report.

Regarding IBV, we submitted a proposal to them, a binding proposal for the acquisition of the field, and they are now in their decision-making process. Things are a little slower. Sometimes it's a little frustrating. The truth is our proposal, for strategic reasons, had a longer term, so they have more time to make an internal decision. It's not really IBV's decision. It's the decision of the partners of IBV, some Indian companies. This is where we stand. I can't really predict what they're thinking. Yes, they do have a proposal from us, and if they are interested, they'll sell.

Christian Audi
Analyst, Santander

Excellent. Very clear. Thank you very much for all the details, and congratulations one more time.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

No, thank you, Christian, for the questions.

Operator

Our next question comes from Pedro Soares with BTG Pactual.

Pedro Soares
Analyst, BTG Pactual

Hello, Roberto, Francilmar. I have three questions on my end.

The first regarding the new drilling in the Eocene. If you can comment on the decision-making process. Of course, it includes a number of things. I would also like to know regarding price evolution, whether it makes you comfortable to proceed with this new drilling. Perhaps you can give us an expectation of the oil production from that well and the CapEx involved. That would be quite helpful if you can give us some color whether it makes sense with all of the macro conditions. If it makes sense to perhaps expect more such drillings along this year. The second question is regarding offtakes. You explained in the release why you had a reduction in the first quarter.

In the second quarter, looking forward, should we expect a more gradual evolution, perhaps not increasing too much in the second quarter, or perhaps to increase in the second quarter to enjoy more favorable prices? Perhaps if you could give us some color on that. The third, as a follow-up question regarding the lifting cost and everything that impacted TBMT and Polvo. I believe that TBMT will still feel some of these effects for a while. What can we expect regarding the company's lifting cost in Q2, or until you complete the Polvo Tubarão-Martelo tieback? Should we expect the lifting cost to remain at this level, or perhaps with the Frade additional production, it could be closer to the third quarter of last year? Could you give us some color on what you expect? Thank you.

Operator

Please hold. You may proceed, sir. Please hold. The executives may proceed. Ladies and gentlemen please standby.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Thank you, Pedro. I'm sorry.

Can you hear me?

Pedro Soares
Analyst, BTG Pactual

Y es, we can hear you.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Pedro, I apologize, but you were asking about the offtakes and how many offtakes we would have in the second quarter.

Pedro Soares
Analyst, BTG Pactual

Yes, I asked about the evolution of offtakes, if it would make sense to imagine something more gradual towards the end of the year, or if you expect higher volumes. Finally, related to the first question regarding TBMT, Polvo issues, imagining that TBMT will still have some problems for a while until the rig arrives on site to carry out the workovers. Does it make sense for us to expect lifting costs close to what we've seen in the last two quarters?

Perhaps with the 30% stake of Frade, there might be an upside and perhaps a stronger reduction in lifting costs even before the workover is carried out and the tieback is completed?

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

All right. As regards the decision-making of Polvo and Frade.

Hello?

Pedro Soares
Analyst, BTG Pactual

I can hear you.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Oh, okay.

Pedro Soares
Analyst, BTG Pactual

Sorry, the phone was ringing.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Well, of course, it takes into account the price, the fact that the Brent oil price is at a more constructive level worldwide now. We have to remember that this well costs $13 million, $14 million, even less than $13 million. Even today, we were considering something around $10 million-$11 million, and it is a well that can add production 2,000 to 3,000 more barrels a day. When you do the math, the well is repaid very quickly.

The return on investment is very fast, and that is why we take this into account. First, Omar and his team in the last few months have been evaluating the reservoir. They did a geological reservoir. Our reservoir engineering team worked on that to decide on this infill drilling. We are drilling on the Eocene reservoir, so it's almost an infill drilling, but it's a new region of the same reservoir that hasn't been drained yet. All of that gave us a lot of comfort regarding that well. Now looking forward, our goal is to have that well operational, then we'll handle the workover of Tubarão Martelo well number eight, the one that had a fail in the ESP. We'll have Tubarão Martelo well number 10 operational again, that one that has been operating for a while. We should start with Frade.

We're still in doubt whether we should drill another such well before Frade's campaign, but we haven't decided on that yet. The reservoir people will look into that in more detail. It is possible that we'll drill another similar well before Frade, but we want to see how this well that we're drilling will behave. Regarding the offtakes, we imagine that for the second quarter, between 3 million-4 million barrels sold, that's what we expect. It's going to be more than the first quarter. That's the second part of your question. The company is effectively producing more, so we are going to have more offtakes. In this first quarter, in particular, we had 2 million. Also because we wanted to replenish our inventories. Because last year our inventory went down, as it happens in all months of December. The fourth quarter is always very strong.

We'll resume the offtakes and selling between three to four million barrels. As regards to the lifting cost, we expect a reduction starting in the second half of the year. Of course, now we have our lifting cost of Tubarão Martelo, TBMT. We have a scheduled downtime of the FPSO at Frade. We have to certify some vessels for cleaning that we need to carry out. The FPSO is going to be shut down for approximately eight days. It's happening as we speak. In this quarter, we'll still have that stoppage. Although, we probably will have some production from the well that is being drilled. As of the third quarter, we should see a reduction because of the tieback, BRL 50 million a year that will leave our OpEx, so we should see a reduction in our lifting cost.

Pedro Soares
Analyst, BTG Pactual

Very clear, Roberto. Thank you.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Thank you for the answers. Thank you, Pedro.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andre with Itaú.

Speaker 7

Hello, Roberto and team. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions. One has to do with the Polvo tieback. It is expected to be finished by July. Can you tell us about the process, how it is evolving, if it is going as planned, and what are you learning with this tieback project that can be applied to the Frade tieback? You gave us some information on that, I'd like to understand what the process is like and if it's according to plan and what you expect looking forward. My second question is regarding M&A. You have the follow-on offer. You have a lot more firepower today. When we look at Albacora, the news are indicating more losses than expected originally.

Could you give us an idea of what you expect in terms of the M&A market? There are new entrants, perhaps market players being a little more aggressive. What can you expect?

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Thank you, Andre. Omar will speak a little about the TBMT tieback, and then I'll speak about M&As.

Speaker 8

Andre, this first tieback project is indeed bringing us a lot of lessons learned. We are trying as much as possible to optimize resources. We have to remember that when we talk about tieback, people talk about 24 months to execute. Since the beginning, we tested the market, and we wanted to do it in a lot less, 12-1 4 months. The results so far overall has been very good. We've delivered to the plan and had some positive surprises.

The suppliers are performing well, that will help us with flexibility with our suppliers for the Wahoo tieback. We are at an advanced conversation stage with some suppliers, that will give us even more comfortable for the Wahoo project. Things are unfolding really, really well. I would even say that the project has been easier than we imagined. Francilmar will never let me say that, the project is being executed according to plan on schedule, the process is well under control.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

As regards to M&As, we had a follow-on. We are financially sound, for sure. What I think is, we didn't do the follow-on only for Albacora. We had the follow-on because we have a market of mature fields out there that is a very relevant market. Albacora is not our only target. It's not our only everything or nothing.

What we have seen, generally speaking, is that there are many companies that are capitalized. They are still very much focused on Petrobras processes. Our goal is to have bilateral projects that perhaps don't include necessarily Petrobras. From that standpoint, the market for us remains intact. We have a lot of investment possibilities, we are working on them. Wahoo, for example. In the past, I used to say, "I want to buy 100% of Wahoo." This is what we are pursuing. This is a totally bilateral process. It's capital intensive, not only for the acquisition, but for the investments that come next. There are some other investments. I cannot give you a lot of detail on that, we are very positive. It's a positive moment for the company and for all of us.

Speaker 7

Roberto, you mentioned buying outside the scope of Petrobras. What about your partnership agenda? You don't have a lot of partners, and you want to remain as operator. What do you think in terms of partnerships for new assets with existing players in Brazil or new entrants in the market?

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

We don't have any problems regarding partnerships. We actually like partnerships. What I think is important is that the partnership be with people, with players and partners who think like PetroRio. In the case of Albacora, we have a partnership forged with a Spanish group. This is public information. We signed a partnership with them in which we would have 50% stake and be the operators, and the partner would have the remaining 50%. We like this kind of idea of partnerships. We are open to partnerships.

In some situations, as is the case of Wahoo and Frade, it made more sense for PetroRio to acquire 100% of the assets to handle the turnaround. The same applies to Tubarão Martelo. In the future, we might have partners in these fields and even in large processes like Albacora. No problem with that. We don't refuse partnerships at all. We need partners that think alike.

Speaker 7

Perfect. Very clear. Thank you, Francilmar and Roberto Monteiro.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Thank you for the questions.

Operator

Our next question comes from Regis Cardoso with Credit Suisse.

Regis Cardoso
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hello, Roberto Monteiro, Milton , Francilmar, thank you for taking my questions. Perhaps I have follow-up questions on topics that were addressed before. Perhaps the answers will be shorter because of that. The first, we always discuss cash position, net debt.

The company still has some commitments if you want to acquire the remaining stake of Wahoo or to handle drilling campaigns. My question is, how do you see today the firepower, the power in your balance sheet? You mentioned into BRL 1 billion, perhaps BRL 1.5 billion. How much would PetroRio have for new acquisitions to handle the M&A strategy? Another topic has to do with the timing of projects. Which one of these projects share resources, particularly rigs? I just want to have a sense of what needs to be done in parallel, what can be done in parallel, what needs to be done sequentially. Perhaps you can use the same rig for Frade and for the tieback between Polvo and Tubarão Martelo. That would be my second question. A third follow-up question is regarding TBMT tieback, the risk of delays.

Any chance that the delay will extend beyond the end of the contract with BW FPSO? If that happens, what is the alternative? Also, if you have other players that were initially focused on offshore and are now turning to onshore, are you thinking of going the other direction, in the inverse direction? Do you prefer to embrace even bigger projects in ultra-deep waters similar to major oil company projects with larger projects?

Milton Rangel
CFO, PRIO

Well, from the standpoint of cash, firepower, M&As, today, we have a capital structure of $370 million, $360 million, this is a short-term debt. Let's imagine that we get this debt and turn it into long-term debt, which is a discussion we are having as we speak, whether it makes sense to issue a bond of $400 million-$500 million, that would be a more structured five-year term debt.

With that, we would have money available because it's hard when you have 12-month loan. It's cheap loan, you can't fully count on that because the banks may end those loan facilities. Let's imagine we issue bonds and we have that kind of money, I believe the company would have firepower to invest BRL 1 billion. We are now already very well prepared, if we want to make adjustments to our capital structure, if we want to push our debt more to the long term, it's a possibility we are considering, we're talking about a firepower greater than BRL 1 billion or a little more than that. That will take us to a whole new league for big fields to be acquired, important fields to be acquired.

I'd like to remind you, in the case of Albacora, our goal is to have a partner. We are not resistant to have partners. As for synergies, it's very different when you talk about shallow waters and deep waters. Shallow waters in the case of TBMT and Polvo. For shallow waters, we have a rig, but that rig only handles workovers in TBMT, and the fixed rig handles workovers at Polvo, and it is the same team that operates both rigs. Here we cannot have at the same time, we cannot complete a well at TBMT and another one at Polvo at the same time. We can't do it at the same time. At least that's not we're thinking right now. We would need to increase our crews and give more muscle to our crews. We still believe it's better to do it sequentially for now.

In deep waters, that's a whole new game. That's more in line with Frade and Wahoo. The same rig that will handle the drilling campaign at Frade will handle the drilling campaign at Wahoo. It's a sequence. We'll drill first at Frade and then Wahoo. We could do both in parallel, Frade-The deep water cluster together with the shallow water cluster, that would not be a problem. We are not doing it right now because of the focus. It is our first time handling such a big project. In the case of Polvo, Tubarão Martelo tieback and the workovers, we need to handle that first and then Frade later. We didn't want to do them both. It would be easier to do something parallel in shallow waters than in deep waters, but it was not our decision.

We will continue to work in shallow waters until the end of the third quarter. Then in the end of the third quarter, most likely in the fourth quarter, we will start the campaign at Frade in deep waters. Then we'll start drilling at Frade. Then move on to Wahoo and so on and so forth. You asked about delays. Delays in the tieback project. Yes. Today, what do we have to do? All of the materials have been commissioned. They're all being built. We even included a photo of the assembly line being built. The study is already. What I can tell you is that today it is very hard that there will be delay in delivery of materials and equipment. Things have been done. COVID around the world is going away. There are things being manufactured in the U.K., in Portugal.

COVID seems to be a little more under control. We are not seeing any plants stopping because of COVID. It seems that everything is pointing to on-time deliveries. We'll receive our flexible lines in the end of May, and it's one of the photos in the release, that coil with a flexible line around it. That is one of the most important items, umbilical lines. We'll get that in the end of May. We have to clear it in customs and install them. We have the vessel, the Sapura vessel, and it is contracted, and it is recovering lines that we have there. In that deal with Dommo, we kept some lines, and some lines have to be recovered at Tubarão Azul, and we're removing these lines with this vessel. The vessel is in-house.

We just need to receive the whole equipment and install all the flexible lines. The possibility of delay is unlikely. Having said that, our contingency plan would be to sit and negotiate a tariff with BW. If we come to the conclusion that we need to spend more time with the FPSO at Polvo, we'll negotiate a tariff with BW that is compatible with the situation. I don't expect it to be $100,000 a day as we pay today, but yes, there's this possibility. Having said that, again, I stress a delay is very unlikely. As regards moving to onshore, Regis, no, we don't have that in our radar. That is not in our radar. I believe that onshore can be profitable, can be interesting, but it is a different type of company. It's a different mindset.

Professor Omar and I have had that kind of conversation over and over. It's a different type of operation. This is a seeing and acting operation, while offshore is more of a planning, reservoir engineering operation. These are two very different things, and we believe that here at PetroRio, we still have a lot of room to grow in offshore. At the moment, it doesn't make sense to look at onshore. At the moment, we see some companies rehearsing to move from onshore to offshore. That's something they should look into very thoroughly and carefully because we are talking about two different beasts here. We are not thinking about going onshore. Petrobras is divesting in that area. We know a little bit about it, but we didn't get excited about that because we believe that it is a totally different type of operation. It requires a totally different skill.

As regards ultra-deep waters, we are already operating deep waters. We operate in mature fields, so we might have a mature field in deep waters or in shallow waters. As time goes by, mature fields will be in ultra-deep waters. Not now. Today, ultra-deep waters are immature fields, and that's why they are not part of our scope of action. Our goal is to operate in mature fields. When we find mature fields in ultra-deep waters, we'll look into those. Giving up return to do more business, I don't see that happening at PetroRio. It's not our idea. Our idea is to maintain return on investment, and that's why we focus on mature fields. We don't tackle exploration and nothing different than the operation of mature fields. This is what we know what to do. It's a one trade pony. That's what we do.

We operate mature fields, and we'll continue to do that with the level of return that we have today. This is our mindset.

Regis Cardoso
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you. Very clear.

Very well explained, and I think that the risk of delays is mitigated. Thank you very much.

Milton Rangel
CFO, PRIO

Thank you, Regis. It's been a pleasure.

Operator

Our next question comes from the webcast by Philippe Bravo.

Speaker 10

Good afternoon. Thank you for the call. At the beginning of the presentation, Roberto mentioned that the lifting cost fell below the company's expectation. However, a simple calculation of OpEx suggests an annualized cost of around $160 million, versus an expectation of $180 million, $190 million expectation. In addition to foreign exchange, what other factors explain this performance?

Milton Rangel
CFO, PRIO

Hello, Philippe. Thank you for the question. Good point. Here. Today, our running rate, and if you multiply it by 12 or by four quarters, we would get close to $160 million.

We've been guiding the market, guiding people to something close to $170 million. This $10 million difference from $160 million to $170 million. Well, $180 million, $190 million, that would include contingencies. The number we are pursuing is $170 million. This delta, $10 million delta, relates to shutdowns. We're going to have a shutdown at Frade, as I mentioned some time ago, and it is happening now. The shutdown costs $5 million. It is on top of the $160 million, and we're going to have another shutdown at TBMT because of the tieback. It will not cost $5 million, but there will be another shutdown. It will be between $160 million and $170 million naturally. Of course, there is the foreign exchange effect that helped us a little, but this is what we're thinking, pursuing running costs of $170 million.

We won't end the year at $170, because in the middle of the year, we'll eliminate the Polvo FPSO, so we'll have to make adjustments, but the running rate would be around $170 million. After that, we would have to exclude the second half of the year of the chartering of FPSO Polvo. The cost for the whole year should be $170 million minus these $25 million around that. For next year, something between $110 and $120. That would be the OpEx running rate for next year. Francisco is laughing. He's sitting next to me. That's the number that we have in mind.

Operator

The next question comes from the webcast by Ms. Cesar Lanzoni.

Speaker 11

Are you considering the possibility to issue a new bond?

Milton Rangel
CFO, PRIO

Hello, Cesar. Yes. We are considering to issue not a new bond, but one bond. Never issued any bonds.

We have BRL 370 million in debt considered in the very short term. Yes, we have considered the possibility of issuing a five-year bond. This is the follow on. We've been thinking about this. We've been analyzing this. We've talked with many banks. I guess it started in February, from February to present. We have spoken with more than 30 players, getting their feedback, understanding the rates, the costs, the fees, and we're looking at the possibility of issuing a bond, and we are considering it. There's a possibility of an education of the market regarding PetroRio, and it's all maturing more and more. We expect to be able to do this in the coming months.

Operator

This concludes today's question and answer session. I would like to invite the executives to proceed with their closing statements.

Roberto Monteiro
CEO, PRIO

Well, I would like to thank all of you for joining us.

I want to apologize for the technical glitch we had in the middle of the call. Technical glitches do happen. Thank you very much for joining us, and I hope to see you in the next quarter. Thank you very much.

Operator

That concludes PetroRio's conference call for today. Thank you very much for your participation, and have a good day.